Get started

Parallel Channel

BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/7/2019)Good morning, traders. Not a lot has happened over the past couple of days. We appear to be watching price move sideways. However, if we take a closer look, we can see price making higher lows toward resistance at $3900. This is creating a possible ascending triangle which should have price targeting $3988-$4005 upon a successful breach and follow-through. I had a preliminary descending channel on the H1 RSI yesterday but it now appears that it is printing a descending broadening wedge suggesting that demand is building for another push up as well. Additionally, the H1 MACD is nearing a bullish crossover. A successful continuation through the $4000 level should see price targeting $4130 with a possible wick toward the R1 pivot at $4210. At that point, I don't think price will push through the ATH diagonal red resistance without retracing toward $3900/$3950 first. This would then possibly print a cup and handle pattern with a minimum target of $4700/$4750 based on the pattern, depending on how it forms. The H4 RSI hasn't hit overbought yet either, currently sitting just below it suggesting that price has further appreciation before a good corrective retracement occurs. D1 MACD histogram printed bullish divergence between February 7th and March 4th which resulted in the move up since then. While daily volume has declined since the drop from $6000, it has also evened out since the end of December and appears to be building in strength, overall. This suggests that a base is being formed between $3000 and $4000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/5/2019)Good morning, traders. The bullish divergence I mentioned yesterday is playing out nicely today as price has made a good $100+ move up this morning with the daily candle currently engulfing the previous four days' candles and sitting above the daily pivot and 21 EMA. This has many of the smaller TFs overbought at this time with the H4 RSI not quite there yet, so we may see a bit of a pullback before further advancement. Daily RSI bounced off the horizontal support I mentioned yesterday and the H1 and H4 RSIs pushed through their respective diagonal resistances. Price is now sitting above the diagonal S/R line and the H4 and D1 HVNs. I am watching for a close above the February 28th swing high at $3897.62 to suggest further upward momentum. The February 27th swing low at $3658.19 is the level at which a close below suggests further downward momentum. While everyone else seems to be screaming that the sky is falling, the D1 chart shows us that nothing unexpected has happened since February 18th. Price closed above the descending channel's resistance and then pushed up into the overhead supply. At that point, it was rejected and price then tested the descending channel's resistance as support (which also happens to be the same level as the HVN). Price is now pushing back up out of that HVN after successfully testing resistance as support, and the next move up should have price targeting the next higher supply zone between $4349 and $4635. As always, I look for price to initially end up around the zone's EQ which, in this case, is $4480/$4485. However, before that, I am currently expecting price to tap the R1 pivot/descending ATH S/R line, pull back slightly, and then push through toward that target. It is possible that we see price continue past that target without stopping if enough interest is generated in the push through the ATH S/R line. Ultimately, I'm looking for a target of $4940-$5070 as this larger, potential wave 3, completes, with the possibility of an extension up to the EQ of the orange zone/R4 pivot at $5440-$5510. These targets are generalized and will likely require refinement if price moves up as expected. Right now, we want to see the $3765-$3800 area hold as support to increase the likelihood of continued demand pressure on price. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin made a strong move this weekend. Make no mistake, it's been tough as there has been significant resistance, but price has moved up in spite of that and is now sitting just above the two month long descending channel resistance. In making this move, price has pushed beyond the green price target from last week and is above the daily pivot. H4 and D1 RSI bounced off their respective support levels as I noted was important to watch, leading to this move up. Currently, price is finding resistance at the 38.2% fib level but it is above the daily 50 EMA. The H4 flagpole target still sits at $3949 while the channel target sits at $4400. I want to see price close above the January 19th swing high of $3774, at a minimum. We don't want to see today's daily candle close below that level now that price has breached it. Lower TFs are well over-bought at this time. Daily RSI is nearing overbought as well. Daily volume is building up nicely, but we need to see it expand beyond the February 8th volume. That doesn't need to happen today, but it should come on the heels of continually expanding volume to provide a case for longer TF bullishness. The worst thing traders can do at this time is to emotionally enter a trade in either direction. There are still a lot of short-term resistance levels that price must close above and it must be done consistently without any fatigue in buying. Why? Because daily RSI continues to print higher highs for the past 2.5 months while price is printing lower highs. This is happening while price is still within the symmetrical triangle. Weekly RSI suggests that we need to see a price close above $4090 to keep that hidden bearish divergence from playing out. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Price is attempting to push its way through the descending wedge's resistance as H4 RSI is pushing through its own resistance. H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross above centerline. As we can see, the green target, which is based on the height of the wedge, is near the previous swing high. Traders need to be cautious as price nears that area. A close above that swing high is what is needed. A wick above but close below prints a bearish SFP which will likely have price reversing. However, a close above that swing high opens up the targets I discussed yesterday as price begins closing above the pattern resistances. While anything is possible at all times, there is little-to-no reason to think price is ultimately headed down from here at this time. At the very least, we should see price move up toward $3900. A daily close above $3615 should make this much more likely as that gets price back above the daily pivot. I am still not a big fan of the possible IHS but have left it for those of you who are interested in it. BTCUSD Shorts may be finding a temporary bottom at the very least. More importantly, they are nearing the area where they have previously bounced and price headed down as a result. Just because it has happened before does not mean it will continue to happen, though, but it is something to keep an eye on. If Shorts happen to drop below that level this time around it may be an indication that the market is reversing. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/14/2019)Good morning, traders. Price continues to consolidate within a flag/descending wedge. The target based on the height of the wedge remains, as it was yesterday, the ascending red "neckline" of the possible IHS. But, as I mentioned previously, we need to see increasing candle spread and expanding volume as the right shoulder is completed and price pushes through the neckline. If we see diminishing volume and/or small candle spread then the possibility of further movement up through the descending channel's resistance is significantly reduced. But we do have a few targets if demand shows itself. The shallowest target of $3730 will get price to the red line and is based on the height of the local wedge, $3970 is based on the height of the flagpole, $4100 is based on the IHS, and $4400 is based on the height of the large descending channel. A breakdown of this wedge has price looking for initial support around $3475-$3510 with secondary support around $3430. Currently, price has retraced almost 50% of the February 8th advance. H4 RSI continues to move within the descending broadening wedge it printed, but appears to be finding a possible floor as it flattens out around 45-50. MACD is also showing growing bullish momentum over the past two days. D1 shows price just below the daily pivot with decreasing volume the past three days and doji candles printing. This suggests that supply may be exhausting itself and, if so, we should see price move upward as demand takes over. Until it happens, however, this is just speculation. Traders should always look for confirmation of direction via pattern completions or breakdowns at the very least. The short green horizontal lines on the D1 chart mark the aforementioned targets. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/13/2019)Good morning, traders. Price hit the red target yesterday and was $20 shy of the pink target. Other than that, it has continued to move sideways within a possible flag. However, generally, the longer this is drawn out the less bullish it is. That being said, there was a 9% drop in Bitfinex short interest in just over an hour earlier this morning prior to the U.S. open (most of it happened within 20 minutes suggesting that it was possibly a single entity unwinding). There was a simultaneous 3% drop in Bitfinex long interest (most of it happened within 5 minutes suggesting a single entity). In terms of actual numbers, shorts closed out about 2500 positions while longs closed out only 1000, causing the longs/shorts ratio to pop. There was no corresponding strong movement in price in either direction at the time but price has been moving up gradually since then. Generally, a significant drop in short interest like this means that price is expected to rise. The lesser the short pressure the easier it is for price to do so. Why did it happen this morning? We can only speculate, but there is the possibility that because the bears have not been able to push price back down, in spite of the dumps since the February 8th advance, larger position holders are cautious that price may advance more in the short term. There are a few people running around talking about a possible IHS on the H4. I have labeled it for you, but I'm not necessarily a fan of the idea. If it is, then there is the possibility that we could see a move down to $3500 before completion of the right shoulder. The neckline is denoted by the ascending red resistance line. If you've been following me for any length of time, you know that I am not a big fan of H&S or IHS patterns, but in this case volume has been expanding in what would be the right shoulder (as we expect in this pattern) which means we can't automatically discount it. Price is finding support around the 21 EMA, at the bottom of the local TR. I have readjusted the descending channel/flag to compensate for yesterday's spike in price and the target based on the height of the channel/descending wedge would be around the neckline of the proposed IHS. RSI continues to print a descending wedge and has found support, so far, as the previous symmetrical triangle's resistance. Price is also printing a possible ascending channel which should have traders cautious about a possible double top forming around $3700. D1 shows yesterday's increasing volume resulting in a long-legged doji, just below the daily pivot, underscoring the strength of the current battle between bulls and bears at the $3500-$3700 level. Today's candle is currently signalling more of the same. We can see rising volume since mid-January but less follow through from the bears. Does this signal a shift in sentiment and a reversal of price? We can't tell yet, but it is something that all traders should be watching. High levels of effort resulting in less result often indicate that reversal, and that's currently what we are seeing. Yes, ultimately volume is still decreasing, but at a much slower rate than it has been, hence the need to watch the current volume advancement for follow through and continued increase. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has continued within the flag and bounced off the 38.2% retracement on the D1 chart as I mentioned I was watching for yesterday. H1 is printing a short-term double bottom with a target of $3620, once price closes above the swing high of $3586 which would confirm it. H1 RSI is just under neutral at 47.3 and butting up against resistance, while H4 RSI has finally retreated to 52 as it bounced off the previous resistance area and is printing a descending broadening wedge, suggesting price may be readying itself to resume its upward momentum soon (as long as it holds). D1 RSI is holding bullishly around 52 while retesting resistance as support at this time as well. Price is sitting on the H4 21 EMA and just below the 21 EMA on the H1 while volume has been picking up in this area. This also puts price just below the daily pivot, so we need to see D1 price closing above that pivot to signal continued bullishness, though I really want to see price closing above the D1 TR's EQ of $3645. The more convincingly price can close above that level, the more bullish it becomes. However, if this level does not hold, I will be looking for the $3450/70 area to provide support. The pattern-based targets remain valid at this time. Ultimately, I am watching price within the pink descending broadening wedge. A move through the wedge's resistance provides a target above the flag's resistance which signals increasingly bullish likeliness if price can follow through beyond that target. That target happens to align with the D1 TR's EQ. However, a drop through the wedge's support signals, at the least, a test of the bottom of the local flag/EQ of the D1 descending channel. I see a lot of traders forcing entries right now. Don't. You should be waiting for price action to tell you which way to trade, not enter just to be in the market. The latter is the easiest way to lose money right after FOMO. BTCUSD longs and shorts are currently rising as a result. Volatility has also dropped off after the surge in action four days ago. Visible orders across the major spot exchanges and Bitmex show dominant demand right now which is a good sign if we can see an influx of buying. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Demand continued to flow into the pair over the weekend with supply attempting to assert itself yesterday. Up looks much more likely than down, in the near term at least. The D1 chart shows price sitting on the daily pivot after being rejected around the 50% retracement of the December 15th low to the December 24th high, but we could see it retreat as far as the 38.2% level before heading up. The target for the break of the green descending wedge is around the 61.8% retracement, as shown, which is also the descending channel's resistance. Currently, price is printing a pennant/flag, and if that breaks bullishly then the target would be the 78.6% retracement based on the height of the flagpole. This takes price through the descending channel's and symmetrical triangle's resistances leaving targets of the R4 pivot around $4380-$4420 and upper supply zone around $5200, respectively. However, in reaching this latter target, price would necessarily move bullishly out of the large descending wedge which has been printing since the ATH and signal a target of $14,000+. Be aware that absolutely none of that is guaranteed. What we are looking at is pattern-based targets that only become active once price leaves the pattern. Traders should be watching the previous swing highs at all times because a failure of price to close above them signals weakness. H1 RSI appears to have found a bottom, so traders should be watching for a push through its resistance. Price's move through its own resistance should have it targeting the top of the local TR and flag/pennant resistance. As shown, a bullish push through that resistance should set a target near the top of the descending channel at around $3780. So we have multiple targets based on multiple TFs and patterns for traders to choose from depending on what TF they are able to trade and their level of risk aversion. Obviously, a breakdown of price below the local TR support should have traders cautious about a possible move to the bottom of the flag/EQ of the large descending channel. Failure of that area to support price opens up a possible move to the bottom of the descending channel. D3 RSI is sitting bearish at 40, and has been ranging for almost two months, but another strong move up would rectify that for the bulls. Last week's W1 candle printed strong bullish engulfing as well as tweezer bottoms, which should signal further upward momentum. Weekly RSI is sitting at 36.5 and, like the D3 RSI, has been ranging for almost two months but is nearing its descending channel resistance. Looking objectively at the W1 chart, it appears that an accumulation TR may be developing with an expected move toward $4300-$4400 which aligns with the D1 descending channel's pattern target. Failure of price to continue upward from there, through the ATH resistance line would signal an expected move back to the bottom of the TR to print an ST in Phase B as I have discussed previously in multiple daily live streams. However, based on the structure of the larger patterns and the current TR, if it is accumulation and price follows this path back down then it becomes increasingly likely that traders may not see the Spring they all are waiting on. Rather, the pair could just print an LPS due to significant demand in the $3000-$3500 area. If so, then we could realistically see price above $6000 by the end of Q2. A February close above $3693.85 would print the first higher monthly close since July 2018 (which is the only higher monthly close we've seen since the ATH). All this being as it is, there is also the chance that we could see a continued move up into the $6000s from where price currently sits as well. Accumulation doesn't just happen horizontally, though most of the time that is the case. So be careful of anyone promising you that price MUST do something particular. If you think you are going to "catch the bottom," be realistic and understand that there is very little chance of you doing so (and if you do it will result from luck, rather than skill). Understanding what is happening with price action and committing to buying near the bottom will be a lot more effective in the long run, but that also means that you most cannot jump in with 50%-100% leverage. The fact is, you will not get rich overnight and the more you attempt to do so the more likely you are to lose everything. Of course price could also always head lower, beyond the 2018 low, as well. While this seems increasingly unlikely, the potential for it to do so remains as long as price sits below $6500. A close below the daily S1 pivot, especially on the D3 chart, is what I would be watching for in regards to a possible move down and resumption of accumulation below $3000. Otherwise, any price move below that level, especially after a move up to $4300 first, would most likely be nothing more than the ST and Spring which indicates a move back up to the top of the blue TR in both cases. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/8/2019)Good morning, traders. Price action just got interesting this morning. H4 and D1 RSI are breaking bullishly through their resistance and volume has picked up noticeably. As a matter of fact, H4 RSI is now bullish at 56. Obviously we need to see follow through, and there is still another 2 hours left in this current candle, but volume is already nearing the same level of the previous candle's volume and price is attacking the green descending wedge's resistance. A successful breach through that green resistance, and continuation, provides a $3865 target. That is also at/near the top of the descending channel. As always, traders must be mindful of previous swing highs. We need to see candles closing above them, not wicking up and then closing below. This latter scenario results in a bearish SFP which should be an indication that price will reverse for a short time at the least. The 15 minute through H1 TFs are overbought signalling that we may see a bit of a pullback before further advancement but it's not guaranteed. Price's current location has the potential to result in strong FOMO that could keep those TFs overbought for a while. At this point, the two most important thing to watch are the H4 and D1 RSI levels. We want to see them both closing and remaining above their respective resistance levels because they are longer term resistance. I have added a few price range target tools to give traders an idea of targets based on patterns that are breaking bullishly. As long as they continue to do so, each target should continue to lead to the next higher target. Failure of follow through should have traders watching the bottom of the blue TR and the two dashed lines below it. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/6/2019)Good morning, traders. Overnight saw Bitcoin finally falling through the bottom of the ascending channel. As I have been warning, failure of follow through on a break through resistance will likely result in price continuing to head lower. That strength into the end of the daily candle yesterday printed a bullish cross on the MACD which has since turned into a potential bearish cross today. I say "potential" because we need to wait for the daily candle to close in order to confirm it. Furthermore, there was no follow through on the bullish SFP that printed as well. Price is now printing a symmetrical triangle after the $100 drop, but it looks weak suggesting a further move down. In terms of a TR, we have potentially only seen the beginning of this one with the January 28th low marking the lower bounds and the January 30th high marking the upper bounds. This is the blue channel and is something I discussed as a possibility about a week ago. Is this trading range a shorter-term redistribution or accumulation? There's no way to know at the moment. The expectation should be a further drop toward the bottom of the blue TR, likely around $3300 (or, with enough FOMO on the drop, potentially $3260 to tag the bottom of the larger descending channel), and print an ST. Ideally, we will see a bullish SFP print at that time and have price pushing back up toward the top of the TR. If price moves as such, but doesn't break yesterday's high, then it is much more likely to be redistribution and we will be looking for price to head lower after that, once it breaks the swing low. However, if it is accumulation, then we will see a target of $3640/90 and the greatest likelihood of that lower low being the second bottom in a double bottom pattern. A further breakdown a-la redistribution threatens the larger descending wedge that price has been printing since the January high and signals a likely retest of the 2018 low. But a move up via accumulation in this local TR would signal a clean bullish break through the green descending wedge's resistance and create a target of $3950, at this time, which is also the major resistance holding back a possible move up to the low-to-mid $5000s. H1 RSI is hugging oversold and the MACD is curled up toward the signal line attempting to push toward a bullish cross. H4 RSI is just a bit above oversold which means there's still room for that above-mentioned drop in price. So far, this recent drop's H4 volume has been significantly less than the volume on the SC leading into the blue TR. Daily volume is rivaling yesterday's and we still have more than 1/3 of the day left. Daily RSI remains within the descending wedge it's been printing since December. We are going to take a look at BTCUSD shorts, longs, and volatility during this morning's live stream, as well as USOIL (which is following the path I outlined a few days back), DJI, and maybe even some FOREX. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/5/2019)Good morning, traders. The big news yesterday was potential proof that the Mt. Gox trustee was selling Bitcoin on the BitPoint exchange, rather than OTC, through the first half of 2018 (www.goxdox.com). If so, it could help us understand why price failed to rally strongly enough off the $6000 level and ultimately fell through, after that level supported price for most of the year. But I'm not here to take a side or convince you one way or the other. That's up to you to decide. Instead, we are here talking about price today and it's not looking terrible at this time. Bitcoin's price bounce off ascending channel support overnight and is now attacking local resistance. There has been a significant fall-off of visible nearby supply on the orderbooks as well. However, we need to see a close above the February 4th swing high of $3439.46 on the H4. After that, we then need to see a close above the February 2nd swing high of $3485. Doing so will open the gates for a run toward $3570 and, of course, the January 25th swing high of $3657.89. If we can see price close above those swing highs, then the next step becomes the January 19th swing high of $3774. That's the step-by-step look for the shorter TF traders. The H1 chart continues to show volume picking up in the $3385-$3435 area. I am watching for a move through the descending blue local resistance to signal a long target of the $3465 level which is just below the EQ of the ascending channel that price has been printing since January 29th. However, this doesn't mean that price will reach that level. Demand appears to be weak so traders that intent to trade this level are going to have to be prepared for a lack of follow through. RSI is printing a nice ascending channel, so traders can also watch for a move outside of that channel to suggest price direction. The weekly 200 MA continues to show the support level just below price at around $3300 right now. This TF and the D1 also shows a clearly defined triangle which price bounced off of last week and, with follow through this week, we should be expecting to see a move up to the top of it around $3900-$4000, depending on how long that takes. The D1 descending wedge suggests a breakout to the upside as well. That breakout would provide a target of the top of the triangle, so there is good confluence on that move. A successful push and continuation through the triangle's resistance provides a target of $5200-$5300 based on the width of the triangle. Currently, this is close to the daily 200 MA, again another strong confluence area as it is also a supply zone that was created during the fall from the $6000s. Finally, if price were to hit that supply and remain strong, that would have it above the long-term resistance that dates back to the ATH. Such a move should then indicate a target of just over $15,000 based on the HTF descending wedge that began at the ATH. The D1 RSI has a lot of room to run as it is currently bearishly under neutral at 41 and is attacking descending resistance. It was also most recently strongly oversold (the lowest recorded daily RSI at 9.4) and has yet to return to overbought as we generally expect RSI to move. Interestingly, MACD is also showing signs of bullish divergence between November 27 and January 31, if price can continue to push up from here to confirm that January price point. The monthly chart is interesting. We can note the large drop from the $6000s in November, however we saw even greater volume in December but a very small candle spread and good lower wick. January saw volume comparable to this past summer, but again small candle spread. This appears to be suggesting that demand continues to show up and while it hasn't been enough to send price higher just yet, if it holds then supply will continue to get eaten up and we could see price moving higher and catching most traders off guard. The M1 wedge is the dominant pattern at this time and based on prior movement suggests that price should be moving sideways/up to challenge the pattern's resistance. This would give price another alternating touch of support and resistance thereby confirming the pattern. If that were to happen, then my expectation continues to be what it has been in that we would see price test that resistance, retrace a bit, and then push through the resistance. Looking at the daily chart, the move toward resistance isn't unthinkable. None of this guarantees that price will move up, and there is room within the local D1 descending wedge to drop once more. Because the D1 triangle hasn't seen a good rebound off the bottom other than the initial move, price dropping to the bottom of the small local descending wedge doesn't mean a bearish break of the triangle. Rather, it could just be signalling that the bottom is at that lower point if we see a strong move back toward the triangle's resistance. Ultimately, any move below $3300, and prolonged stay there, has me feeling much more bearish. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD D1/M1 charts (2/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trade sideways with no significant increase in visible supply or demand on the order books. While Bitmex has continued to show stronger supply, spot exchanges are showing stronger demand. Traders should consider both but give more credence to spot exchanges as Bitmex's swap system and 100x leverage draw to it the gamblers (those with a stronger "casino" mindset) which means they are generally short-profit driven which leads to constantly jumping between buying and selling. Spot exchange traders tend to have a more definitive outlook and as such aren't prone to as much flip-flopping. Again, this is speaking in generalities. At this point, price has printed a perfect descending channel on the daily. The daily RSI has printed a descending wedge whose apex it is nearing, and volume has continued to drop as price has consolidated, which means that we should see a strong push by price in either direction sooner rather than later. Price is also treading along, just under, the steeper red resistance. I have outlined the horizontal resistance levels in blue as well. Currently, my expectation is for price to target the supply EQ around $4500 as noted once it moves through the channel's resistance. Traders must watch for price to target the channel's EQ and then its resistance before thinking of the supply EQ, however. These more local levels give shorter-term traders ideas of where to watch if going long or short in the near term. Yesterday's candle was very low in terms of volume and today's candle is already almost even, yet the candle spread is very small so far. This is something traders should watch through the end of the day. Based on the steep red resistance line, a successful move beyond it should have price targeting the January 19th swing high around $3760/80. We would need to see the candle closing above that swing high to protect price from a bearish SFP and signal further advancement. A successful close below the January 29th swing low at $3322 would have price likely targeting the $3200 area and failure for that level to hold puts $3000 on guard. The monthly chart is interesting. We can note the large drop from the $6000s in November, however we saw even greater volume in December but a very small candle spread and good lower wick. January saw volume comparable to this past summer, but again small candle spread. This appears to be suggesting that demand continues to show up and while it hasn't been enough to send price higher just yet, if it holds then supply will continue to get eaten up and we could see price moving higher and catching most traders off guard. The wedge is the dominant pattern at this time and based on prior movement suggests that price should be moving sideways/up to challenge the pattern's resistance. This would give price another alternating touch of support and resistance thereby confirming the pattern. If that were to happen, then my expectation continues to be what it has been in that we would see price test that resistance, retrace a bit, and then push through the resistance. Looking at the daily chart, the move toward resistance isn't unthinkable. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1
TrendlinesNot all trendlines have to be build using higher highs and lower lows. Some work perfectly as a trend direction and parallel channel middle line. The more bounces it has the more important it is for the chart (not stronger, but important). Also pay attention to volume - it should increase at line cross or bounce zones, confirming the line. Example - look at blue trendline that worked as SR through all the way MCO made up, before BTC cracked it down. Breakdown of trendline started fast dump. In combination with horizontal SR line crossover price movement increase exponentially.
MEducation
by WiseAnalyze
Education post 11/100 – How to trade downside channel pattern?If we take this trend line theory one step further and draw a parallel line at the same angle of the uptrend or downtrend, we will have created a channel. No, we’re not talking about ESPN, National Geographic Channel or Cartoon Network. Still, this doesn’t mean that you should walk away like it’s a commercial break- channels can be just as exciting to watch as Game of Thrones or Keeping Up with the Kardashians! Channels are just another tool in technical analysis which can be used to determine good places to buy or sell. Both the tops and bottoms of channels represent potential areas of support or resistance. To create an up (ascending) channel, simply draw a parallel line at the same angle as an uptrend line and then move that line to position where it touches the most recent peak. This should be done at the same time you create the trend line. To create a down (descending) channel, simply draw a parallel line at the same angle as the downtrend line and then move that line to a position where it touches the most recent valley. This should be done at the same time you create the trend line.When prices hit the LOWER trend line, this may be used as a buying area. When prices hit the UPPER trend line, this may be used as a selling area. Types of channels There are three types of channels: Ascending channel (higher highs and higher lows) Descending channel (lower highs and lower lows) Horizontal channel (ranging) Important things to remember about drawing trend lines: When constructing a channel, both trend lines must be parallel to each other. Generally, the bottom of channel is considered a buy zone while the top of channel is considered a sell zone.Like in drawing trend lines, DO NOT EVER force the price to the channels that you draw! A channel boundary that is sloping at one angle while the corresponding channel boundary is sloping at another is not correct and could lead to bad trades.
Education
by GroundStoneHoldings
How you NOT use Fibonacci! Support&Resistance for beginners!Hey everyone, welcome to my second Video about fibonacci and how you should and should not use retracement- and extension levels. :-) There is way more to say about resistance and support-levels. Since I only got 10 mins. for a video I can just talk about small pieces and highly recommend you to check more about this topic. I just wanted to give you an example how the market works and how it respects resistance and support-levels. There are more Traders than those who safe profit to cause resistance or support-zones. Stop-Loss-Levels gets triggered, Take-profit, fundamentals, those who are flat and wait for signals and so on. If you wanna see more about that topic just use the comment section and tell me more about your wishes. :-) You can also PM me! Peace and good trades Irasor Trading2ez Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. :-) Need education or more signals? PM me. :-)
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Trading2ez
15
Learn how MACD and Trendlines are Connected.Hey, I am back, this time with something, kinda unusual, and I dont know If you like this kind of stuff, but here is some education for you to make a better trading decision in your future! Okay, so I would like to teach you a bit about MACD and how is this indicator connected to trendlines. In this chart you can see three flags , each flag can be bullish or bearish. But how do you know if a flag will be bullish or bearish? Pretty simple and pretty hard in same way. If a price breaks uptrend ascending ressistance it means breakout ! And if the price breaks ascending support level it means a breakdown . This type of trading is called breakout trading. But what makes flag, a flag? In simple. Flag is a continuation pattern, they usually represent only brief pauses in a dynamic stock also they are typically seen right after a big, quick move , thats why we see so much flags in the Bitcoin charts, its a very quick and dynamic moving stock compared to others stocks, not cryptocurrencies. Channel/flag, is formed by a ascending support level and ascending ressistance level. Inside this channel you can spot tests on both support and ressistance level. So lets now just go trough the chart chronologically and see how the MACD reacts to trendlines. At first double top you can see the test of ressitance uptrend flag/channel. This test was negative, you can spot that by histogram finding his top and starting to decline, same thing on "Point A". As histogram is starting to decline ,Bitcoin is about to test a certain level, this time it is a ascending support level, you can spot it at first macd uptrend test where the histogram turned around and started to see buying volume increasing, this same is valid for each succesful uptrend test. After some tests of each ascending ressistance or support, when the price leaves this channel, its a prediction for a sharp move in a way, which was broken, for example broken ascending ressistance level would mean breakout. After the first flag has broken out, steep uptrend were build , and succesful test of this steeper uptrend meant another wave of buyers p ushing price even higher, found ressistance at 6800, failed at testing second steep uptrend and found new channel. In a second flag , Bitcoin is on selling wave , so for macd to give us buy signa l, Bitcoin would need to break ascending ressistance and that would give macd buy signal, its opposite as buying wave, while on buying wave you see rise in histogram which meant succesful test, here means the fall ( or rise from negative bottom if you will ) of histogram, Bitcoin finding support. A fter Bitcoin has failed in the second flag breaking/testing the ressitance twice as macd suggest and also the ascending ressistance which wasnt overhelmed, the flag has seen a breakdown . After breakdown Bitcoin found support and formed another uptrend , found new ascending ressitance and formed another flag, on this last flag, you can beautifuly see how is macd testing , each test represent an ascending support test on the chart, after 4 succesful test in a row, the flag has broken out and saw a breakout! In short MACD shows test of trendlines, ressistance, support. When is MACD doing waves , or in another words blue riding on orange line, it means succesful test of uptrend , support and price of stock may continue to rise. When Flag gets broken , heavy price action is ahead. When uptrend is broken , usually downtrend is formed until stock finds support and from there form another uptrend. The highest positive histogram tick represent finding ressistance , falling volume, headed to test support levels. The lowest( or the longest if you will) negative histogram tick represent finding support and price headed to test ressistance for possible macd turnaround, on chart you can see two unsuccesful, which led to breakdown. Hope you liked this Education about MACD and Trendlines connection and also some education about flags/channels. Hope I havent missed anything important , if yes point it in comments. I f I have learned you anything that you are able to benefit from and be a bit better trader , let me know by smashing that agree button, each like is very appreciated as I am doing this for FREE and it took me a LOT of time, Thanks a Lot!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TiborVrbovsky
5