Trading Mindset
I Am a Software Developer and a Passionate Trader
Over the past five years, I have explored nearly every aspect of trading—technical analysis, intraday trading, MTF, pre-IPO investments, options selling, F&O, hedging, swing trading, long-term investing, and even commodities like gold and crude oil.
Through this journey, I realized that **technical analysis is only about 20% of the equation**. The real game is **psychology and mindset**.
I have distilled my learnings into concise points below—insights that have shaped my approach and will continue to guide me in my version 2.0 of trading. I hope they prove valuable to you as well.
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### **Position Sizing**
One of the most important aspects of trading is choosing the right position size. Your trade should never be so large that it causes stress or worry. Keep it at a level where you can stay calm, no matter how the market moves.
### **Set Stop-Loss and Target Before Placing a Trade**
Decide in advance when you will exit a trade—both at a loss (**stop-loss**) and at a profit (**target**). This helps maintain emotional balance, preventing extreme excitement or frustration.
### **How to Calculate Position Size**
- Use **technical analysis** to identify your **stop-loss** and **target**.
- Example: If CMP is ₹100 and your stop-loss is at ₹94 (₹6 risk per share), determine your risk tolerance:
- ₹3,000 risk ➝ **500 shares** (₹3,000 ÷ ₹6)
- ₹1,200 risk ➝ **200 shares** (₹1,200 ÷ ₹6)
- Adjust quantity based on how much you're willing to risk.
### **Setting Target Price & Risk-Reward Ratio**
The most important factor in setting a target is the **risk-reward ratio**. If your stop-loss is ₹6, your target should be at least **₹6, ₹9, or ₹12**.
### **Why Is Risk-Reward Important?**
Let’s say you take **10 trades**—5 go in your favor, and 5 go against you. If your risk-reward ratio isn’t favorable, you could end up in a loss.
Example:
- You **lose ₹6** in two trades → ₹12 total loss
- You **gain ₹3** in three trades → ₹9 total profit
- **Net result: -₹3 loss**
To ensure profitability, your **reward should be equal to or greater than your risk**. A **1.5x or 2x risk-reward ratio** is ideal.
### **Flexibility in Targets**
Even when the price reaches **Target 1**, you can **book partial profits** and let the rest run with a **trailing stop-loss**.
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### **Managing Multiple Trades**
This is **very important**. If you're a beginner, **limit yourself to 2 trades**, and even if you're a pro, **avoid more than 3-5 positions**.
**Example:** If you have **₹2 lakh**, make sure you have **only 2 trades open at a time**. Add a third stock **only when you close another position**.
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### **How to Deploy Capital**
Patience is key. If you have **₹1 lakh**, **divide it into 4-5 parts** and buy **in small chunks over time**.
**Why?**
The **nature of stocks** is to move in waves—rising, facing profit booking, then breaking previous highs. Instead of investing everything at once, **buy in staggered amounts** to ensure your **average price stays close to CMP**.
---
### **Avoid Market Noise**
When trading, **stay in your zone**.
Social media posts can make you feel **slow compared to others**, but they don't show the full picture. Avoid distractions like:
- Direct stock tips from **news channels**
- P&L snapshots from traders
- Following too many **analysts on social media**
Instead, **listen to expert views**, but stay disciplined with **your own strategy**.
---
### **Stock Selection**
Stock selection has **two elements—technical and fundamental** (I'll write a separate post on this).
Always **buy a stock that you can hold even in your darkest times**.
**Example:**
- Choose **blue-chip stocks** with **high market caps & strong promoter holdings**
- Never **buy a stock just because it’s in momentum**
- If a stock **turns into a forced SIP**, it’s not a good buy
Pick stocks with **a long-term story**—even if you fail to exit at the right time, you should be comfortable holding them.
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### **Accept That It’s the Market, Not You**
Many traders fail because they **don’t admit that the market is unpredictable**.
Losses happen because of volatility, not necessarily poor strategy. **Example:**
- You lose a trade and **try improving your method** but face another hit
- Some losses **are simply beyond your control**
Most of what happens in the market is **not in your hands**—including stop-loss triggers. **Accept this reality,** and focus on **risk management** instead of revenge trading.
---
### **Keep Separate Trading & Investment Accounts**
Trading and investing **are different**. If you keep them **in the same account**, you’ll:
- **Book small profits** on investments
- **Hold short-term trades in losses**
Having **separate accounts** keeps **your goals clear**.
---
### **Don’t Let the Market Dominate You**
Even full-time traders **shouldn’t obsess over the market**.
Limit your **screen time to 2-3 hours during market hours**.
**Why?**
- You can’t **act on global markets until 9:15 AM IST**
- Even if a **war or tariff issue** arises, **you can’t do anything until market open**
- Overthinking leads to **over-trading**, which drains money
Instead, **invest time in developing new skills**.
---
### **Do What Suits You, Not Others**
If you're good at **swings, stick to swings**. If you're good at **intraday, do intraday**.
Don't follow **what works for a friend—trade based on what suits you**.
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### **Avoid FOMO**
Don't **stress** if a stock jumps **20% in a day**.
Stock **accumulation zones, demand/supply areas, profit booking**, and **retests** happen **regularly**—opportunities will always come.
Even traders who claim they made **20% in a day** **don’t share how often they got trapped chasing stocks**.
---
### **Stop-Loss Is Your Best Friend**
No, stop-loss is your **best friend for life**.
**Example:**
- Suppose you **enter 10 trades in a month**.
- **6 do well** and you book profits.
- **4 go against you**, but instead of exiting, **you hold** because you believe they’ll recover.
- Next month, you **repeat this cycle**—adding more positions.
Over time, **this builds a portfolio of lagging stocks**, and suddenly, **your losses dominate your portfolio**.
---
Even Experts Face Losses
Even professionals with **advanced research teams lose money**.
Retail traders often **believe they can avoid losses by analyzing a few ratios**, but **losses are part of trading**.
A stop-loss ensures **you stay in the game long-term**—instead of holding onto losing trades indefinitely.
---
Take a Break & Restart
Taking breaks is **crucial**. If everything is going wrong, **don’t hesitate to press the reset button**—step back, analyze, and refine your approach. A fresh mindset leads to better trading decisions. (I’ll write a detailed post on this soon.)
Risk Management
Trading is a business
The masses have the wrong ideas about Trading. It is a business and just like others it involves risk. We grow, we learn, earn and scale up. Crafting a plan is essential to success and character also play a key role here.
In this business, risk is an inherent part of the equation. Just like any other enterprise, trading exposes you to challenges and setbacks, but it's how you manage these risks that can differentiate a thriving business from one that falters. Careful risk management—whether through proper position sizing, stop-loss strategies, or diversification—is the foundation that helps protect your capital while you grow your business over time.
Crafting a trading plan is essential. This plan should not only outline your entry and exit strategies based on rigorous analysis but also incorporate a framework to evaluate your performance critically. A well-crafted plan serves as a roadmap, guiding your decisions in both favorable and challenging market conditions. Moreover, it creates a discipline that protects you from emotional reactions that can often lead to impulsive decisions—a common pitfall in trading.
Character plays a crucial role as well. In trading, psychological fortitude, resilience in the face of losses, and the humility to learn from mistakes are qualities that separate the successful from the rest. Many people mistakenly believe that a few big wins can offset a series of missteps; however, it is the consistent, calculated, and disciplined approach that leads to sustainable growth. This business mindset—acknowledging that each trade is a learning opportunity and a step in scaling up your efforts—is what ultimately propels traders to long-term success.
In essence, re-framing trading as a business fosters a mindset where every decision is taken seriously, every mistake is analyzed for improvement, and every trade is seen as a building block for growth. This approach not only minimizes unnecessary risks but also enables you to scale up with confidence.
I'm curious—what elements of your trading plan do you find most effective at keeping your business mindset in check, and are there aspects you'd like to refine further?
Are You Taking the Right Risks in Trading? RISK Per Trade Basics
What portion of your equity should you risk for your trading positions?
In the today's article, I will reveal the types of risks related to your position sizing.
Quick note: your risk per trade will be defined by the distance from your entry point to stop loss in pips and the lot size.
🟢Risking 1-2% of your trading account per trade will be considered a low risk.
With such a risk, one can expect low returns but a high level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is optimal for conservative and newbie traders.
With limited account drawdowns, one will remain psychologically stable during the negative trading periods.
🟡2-5% risk per trade is a medium risk. With such a risk, one can expect medium returns but a moderate level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is suitable for experienced traders who are able to take losses and psychologically resilient to big drawdowns and losing streaks.
🔴5%+ risk per trade is a high risk.
With such a risk, one can expect high returns but a low level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is appropriate for rare, "5-star" trading opportunities where all stars align and one is extremely confident in the positive outcome.
That winner alone can bring substantial profits, while just 2 losing trades in a row will burn 10% of the entire capital.
🛑15%+ risk per trade is considered to be a stupid risk.
With such a risk, one can blow the entire trading account with 4-5 trades losing streak.
Taking into consideration the fact that 100% trading setups does not exist, such a risk is too high to be taken.
The problem is that most of the traders does not measure the % risk per trade and use the fixed lot.
Never make such a mistake, and plan your risks according to the scale that I shared with you.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
What on Earth Is a Circuit Breaker?!Every couple of days since April 2nd, everybody's been talking about a stock market halt all day. You're left there trying to Google it so you're not the only person in the group chat who doesn't know what's going on. But actually, nobody else in your group chat knows what's going on either. They're low-key Googling it under the desk. You don't have to know everything in the market to be a "seasoned" trader. What does get disappointing is when people guess instead of providing facts or a direct link to an article about market halts.
So, this is your quick-but-detailed-read article/ guide to market halts and circuit breakers. Send it to your friends in that group chat. Why today's dump happened in the first place? More on that later. It's a long story. 🥹
What is a circuit breaker?
It's simple: a circuit breaker is a 15 minute OR whole-day market-wide HALT when the market reaches 1 of 3 decline levels. It all depends on the level, how fast the decline is, and potentially other factors that we are not aware of. Keep in mind this is not something we have to deal with often.
When does it happen? And what stock does it track?
Good question. The halt is triggered following declines in the S&P 500 only . That is: AMEX:SPY SP:SPX $CME_MINI:ES1!.
If these level 1 & 2 are reached before 3:25 PM EDT , there is a 15 minute market-wide trading halt. Meaning you cannot enter or exit positions. If level 3 is reached at any time in the day, the entire day's trading will come to an end.
Level 1: -7.00% | 15 minute halt
Level 2: -13.00% | 15 minute halt
Level 3: -20.00% | Entire day halt
So when the S&P 500 index reaches -6.98%, be sure a halt is coming very soon at -7.00%. Sure, like today, "they" might pump it and use that as support and prevent a halt (we got very close to -6.35% on CME_MINI:ES1! if I'm not mistaken). But it's good to be vigilant and make sure you're not in any daytrades.
Does CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:QQQ CBOT_MINI:YM1! trigger the halt also?
No. The halt is only triggered by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite famously moves much more than S&P 500, so a 7% drop in S&P is way more dramatic than a 7% drop in Nasdaq and it's highly likely at -7% in S&P that Nasdaq would be at -8% or -9%. Although, both are undoubtedly decimating for any long positions.
Why does this rule exist?
This was introduced after Black Monday of 1987 where the market was free falling ( DJ:DJI dropped 22.6%) with no safety stops in place to prevent a market-wide disaster. This prevents further panic selling and massive stop loss raids, and also gives institutional traders time to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
How close did we get recently?
Today we got within 0.7% of getting a 15 minute halt.
See for yourself:
And the intraday 15 minute chart:
FUN FACT: What if I shorted the top on CME_MINI:ES1! ?
Assuming your time machine goes back 24 hours (some time machines only go back 10 years minimum), you'd have booked 1500 ticks at $12.50 per tick. So around $19k per contract. You know that's not too bad. It's almost a Toyota Camry per contract. Do better! 😆
How do I trade this?
Do you really have to? Please do not FOMO & catch a falling knife. Trade light. The market is open for the rest of the year. Trade with a stop loss, and remember, if you FOMO'd and bought at -3% just because it's down 3%, you'd have gotten decimated. Use the charts not the % on your screen. 🔥
Hit the follow button for free educational content because knowledge is free. KD out.
Global Markets Crashing: What Now?⚠️ Global Markets Crashing: What Now?
Don't panic , this is a worldwide event . Even big players are affected.
The important thing is to be patient and focus on future opportunities . We're hoping for a recovery in 2025.
We're holding on! ⏳
If you're experiencing losses right now , don't get discouraged, almost everyone is in the same boat . Even the largest funds managing billions of dollars are in trouble. Trillions of dollars are being wiped out from the world economy. Every country and every stock market is crashing. If you're thinking, 'My altcoin is dropping,' just look at how much ETH has fallen (18% in just one day).
Everything across the globe is falling , so it's natural that our market and investments will also fall. Don't feel bad if you didn't sell at the top in November or December; these are learning experiences for the future. Remember to take profit in the next uptrend.
Right now, all we can do is wait and hope for global issues to be resolved. Interest rate cuts and printing more money could bring a recovery in 2025.
S tay strong and make sure to take your profits if we see a big pump towards the end of the year.
We are also holding all our assets and waiting.
Trump’s Tariffs & the Silent Setup — Why This Could Be Bigger ?Hello Traders 🐺
I hope you enjoyed yesterday’s Black Monday 😂 because honestly, it was brutal for all investors.
But corrections like this are always necessary — and I want to talk about that in this idea with a bit more detail.
Also, I’ll update you on the current situation of BTC.D, because as I told you in my last update, the market is about to create a bear trap on the BTC.D chart.
I already shared the proof for this prediction before the dump — you can check it here:
So now, let’s talk about the economic reason behind the dump, and then I’ll go over the technical side of the chart.
This idea I’ll explain how we can use macroeconomic data in our trading decisions.
So make sure to read it carefully and see how you can apply it to your strategy ✅
Do deep corrections always mean danger?
Not necessarily.
Let’s go back and remember some of the biggest crashes in financial history —
The COVID dump or even the famous Black Monday.
If you ask yourself now, “What was the smartest move back then?”
You’ll probably say:
Buy. Accumulate. Because that was the bottom — and we never saw those prices again.
And guess what?
The current state of the market is no different.
So why do I believe Trump’s new tariff policy could actually be bullish?
Let me break it down simply for you:
🔥 The Tariff War: Why it started
For years, most countries had easy access to the U.S. consumer market — the largest in the world — with little or no tariffs.
But U.S. manufacturers didn’t enjoy the same freedom when exporting abroad — they faced heavy tariffs, while also struggling with intense competition inside their own borders due to lack of import restrictions.
So what happened?
✅ The new tariffs brought two key benefits:
1️⃣ Forced negotiations:
Other countries now have to either remove or reduce their own export tariffs to keep trading with the U.S.,
or else they lose access to a market that’s extremely consumption-driven.
2️⃣ Advantage to U.S. domestic production:
If foreign exporters lose access, U.S. producers finally get room to breathe,
and can grow competitively inside their own market.
💰 What happened after tariff fears hit?
In the past month, markets reacted with fear.
A massive amount of capital flew out of financial markets and inflation-hedged assets,
the dollar strengthened, and recession fears grew.
But here’s the twist...
What if Trump had started printing money before this shakeout?
If liquidity was still high, printing more would’ve:
Crushed the dollar
Destroyed consumer buying power
Sparked inflation again
But right now, after money has already been squeezed out of markets and the dollar is strong,
the Fed has a clean path to restart QE (quantitative easing) without tanking the dollar’s value.
So what's next?
Lower interest rates, stimulus packages, subsidies — all will likely come soon.
This time, Trump can inject liquidity exactly where he wants it to go:
Straight into U.S. industry, not into meme coins and junk assets.
With fewer export tariffs, American factories will be more competitive,
U.S. exports could rise, and the country will rely less on foreign production.
And what does this mean for the markets?
Simple.
Once the Fed pivots back to easing, markets will react violently to the upside.
So, as I always say:
Don’t waste this opportunity. Use these prices wisely.
now let's come back into the chart :
As I told you before , BTC.D now is testing the blue monthly resistance line and also hit the rising wedge upward resistance line and in my opinion there is a big chance to see a massive bull market incoming...
I hope you find this idea valuable and as always remember :
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
TESLA Always Pay YOURSELF! Tsla Stock were you PAID? GOLD Lesson
⭐️I want to go into depth regarding the this topic but it is a long one with PROS & CONS for doing and not doing it.
Every trader must choose what's best for them but you will SEE when I finally get to the write up that MANY OF THE PROS are NOT FINANCIAL but PSYCHOLOGICAL❗️
Another of 🟢SeekingPips🟢 KEY RULES!
⚠️ Always Pay YOURSELF.⚠️
I know some of you chose to HOLD ONTO EVERYTHING and place your STOP at the base of the WEEKLY CANDLE we entered on or the week priors base.
If you did that and it was in your plan GREAT but... if it was NOT that is a TRADING MISTAKE and You need to UPDATE YOUR JOURNAL NOW.
You need to note EVERYTHING. What you wanted to see before your exit, explain why not taking anything was justified to you, were there EARLY exit signals that you did not act on. EVERYTHING.
🟢SeekingPips🟢 ALWAYS SAYS THE BEST TRADING BOOK YOU WILL EVER READ WILL BE YOUR COMPLETE & HONEST TRADING JOURNAL ⚠️
📉When you read it in black amd white you will have YOUR OWN RECORD of your BEST trades and TRADING TRIUMPHS and your WORST TRADES and TRADING ERRORS.📈
✅️ KEEPING an UPTO DATE JOURNAL is STEP ONE.
STUDYING IT IS JUST AS IMPORTANT👍
⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️A sneak peek of the LESSON after will be HOW & WHEN TO ENTER WHEN THE OPEN BAR IS GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY OF YOUR IDEA.👌
🚥Looking at the TESLA CHART ABOVE you will see that we were interested in being a BUYER when the weekly bar was BEARISH (GREEN ARROW) and we started to consider TAKE PROFITS and EXITS when the (RED ARROW) Weekly bar was still BULLISH.🚥
Careful Trusting "News" | Fake News TradingOn Monday, April 7th, 2025 amidst incredible market volatility, you'd expect your most trusted news outlet to report on-the-minute news. But most importantly, accurate news .
With the markets down nearly 20% in ~4 trading days, every piece of information matters. But with the age of fast (social) media, news outlets will do anything possible to be the first to report. Even .... posting fake news. The way this works is they get news that's "probably true", they post it, then it's verified to be true. This may work often for them and when it doesn't, nobody really cares. But when you're talking about times of volatility unseen since COVID, all this nonsense gets exposed.
So - at roughly 10:10 AM EST, CNBC reported that there will be a "90-day pause on tariffs". A ground-breaking report that likely caused John Doe to buy $10M in NASDAQ:NVDA calls dated end of July because that's a no-brainer right? It surely cannot be false since CNBC is his go-to trusted news-source and there is just NO WAY that they would ever post any news without being 100% true and verified. ESPECIALLY news about TARIFFS -- the talk of the town (psh, the world actually) at the moment. 90 day pause? That's not something you report lightly. You know the ripple effect that'll have on the markets.
Result of that news report? The markets (e.g. CME_MINI:NQ1! ) jumped 6.60% in under 10 minutes.
Jane Doe likely saw that jump, looked at that news, and rebought her shares that she sold at the bottom earlier this morning.
Surely that news cannot be fake. It's a 90-day tariff pause. That's huge. Surely the White House will see "Yeah baby! We take credit for that".
Nope, at roughly 10:18 AM EST, the same CNBC reported that, "the 90-day pause on tariffs was fake news according to the White House". Results? Market right back down -6.5% in 20 minutes.
Suppose you FOMO'd into AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ calls.. well, you lost almost everything depending on the strike and date. In this market, manage your RISK and always hedge. Don't forget to thank CNBC, your most trusted news-source for that capital gain loss.
Welcome to trading in 2025. The age of report-first, verify-later. Welcome home.
Be careful listening to the news and take everything they say with a grain of salt. And as always, don't chase the news. KD out.
There's a Time to Trade and a Time to Watch Lately, the market has been in chaos – indices are dropping like there’s no tomorrow, and when it comes to Gold, what used to be a normal fluctuation of 100 pips has now turned into a 500-pip swing. In such a volatile environment, many traders feel compelled to be constantly active, believing that more trades mean more profit. But the truth is, there’s a time to trade and a time to watch.
Conservation of Capital is Essential 💰
The best traders understand that their capital is their lifeline. It’s not about making trades; it’s about making the right trades.
The market doesn’t reward effort; it rewards patience and precision.
Instead of jumping into mediocre setups, learn to appreciate the value of patience .
Every time you enter a trade that doesn’t meet your criteria, you risk your capital unnecessarily. And every loss chips away at your ability to capitalize on the real opportunities when they come. Capital preservation should be your priority.
Focus Only on A+ Signals 📌
Not every setup is worth your time and money. The goal should be to only enter positions that offer a clear edge – signals that you’ve identified as high-probability opportunities through your experience and strategy.
A + setups are those that offer:
• A clear technical pattern or setup you've mastered.
• A favorable risk-to-reward ratio, ideally 3:1 or better.
• Alignment with your overall strategy and market context.
If these criteria aren't met, it’s often better to do nothing. Waiting for the right setup and market conditions is part of the game.
The Power of Doing Nothing 🤫
Inaction is a skill. It requires discipline to avoid the urge to "force" trades. But the market will always be there tomorrow , and so will the opportunities.
By learning to watch rather than trade during uncertain or suboptimal conditions, you avoid unnecessary losses and conserve your capital for when the market truly presents an edge.
Conclusion 🚀
Trading is about quality, not quantity. Respect your capital and recognize that sometimes, the smartest move is to wait. Let the market be clear.
Remember, there’s a time to trade and a time to watch. Master this balance, and you’ll be miles ahead of most traders.
Position Sizing StrategiesPosition sizing is one of the most important aspects in risk management for traders. Proper position sizing helps manage the risk effectively by maximizing profits and limiting the losses. In this publication, we will explore popular position sizing strategies and how to implement them in pinescript strategies
🎲 Importance of Position Sizing in Trading
Let's take an example to demonstrate the importance of position sizing. You have a very good strategy that gives you win on 70% of the times with risk reward of 1:1. If you start trading with this strategy with all your funds tied into a single trade, you have the risk of losing most of your fund in the first few trades and even with 70% win rate at later point of time, you may not be able to recoup the losses. In such scenarios, intelligent position sizing based on the events will help minimize the loss. In this tutorial, let us discuss some of those methods along with appropriate scenarios where that can be used.
🎲 Position Sizing Strategies Available in Tradingview Strategy Implementation
🎯 Fixed dollar amount position sizing In this method, trader allocate a fixed value of X per trade. Though this method is simple, there are few drawbacks
Does not account for varying equity based on the trade outcomes
Does not account for varying risk based on the volatility of the instrument
🎯 Fixed Percentage of Equity In this method, percent of equity is used as position size for every trade. This method is also simple and slightly better than the Fixed dollar amount position sizing. However, there is still a risk of not accounting for volatility of the instrument for position sizing.
In tradingview strategies, you can find the position sizing settings in the properties section.
In both cases, Pinescript code for the entry does not need to specify quantity explicitly, as they will be taken care by the framework.
if(longEntry)
strategy.entry('long', strategy.long)
if(shortEntry)
strategy.entry('short', strategy.short)
🎲 Advanced Position Sizing Strategies
There are not directly supported in Tradingview/Pinescript - however, they can be programmed.
🎯 Fixed Fractional Method
The Fixed Fractional Method is similar to the fixed percentage of equity method/fixed dollar amount positioning method, but it takes into account the amount of risk on each trade and calculate the position size on that basis. This method calculates position size based on the trader’s risk tolerance, factoring in stop-loss levels and account equity. Due to this, the trader can use any instrument and any timeframe with any volatility with fixed risk position. This means, the quantity of overall trade may vary, but the risk will remain constant.
Example.
Let's say you have 1000 USD with you and you want to trade BTCUSD with entry price of 100000 and stop price of 80000 and target of 120000. You want to risk only 5% of your capital for this trade.
Calculation will be done as follows.
Risk per trade = 5% of 1000 = 50 USD
Risk per quantity = (entry price - stop price) = 20000
So, the quantity to be used for this trade is calculated by
RiskQty = Risk Amount / Risk Per Quantity = 50 / 20000 = 0.0025 BTC
To implement the similar logic in Pinescript strategy by using the strategy order quantity as risk, we can use the following code
riskAmount = strategy.default_entry_qty(entryPrice)*entryPrice
riskPerQty = math.abs(entryPrice-stopPrice)
riskQty = riskAmount/riskPerQty
With this, entry and exit conditions can be updated to as follows
if(longEntry)
strategy.entry('long', strategy.long, riskQty, stop=entryPrice)
strategy.exit('ExitLong', 'long', stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice)
if(shortEntry)
strategy.entry('short', strategy.short, riskQty, stop=entryPrice)
strategy.exit('ExitShort', 'short', stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice)
🎯 Kelly Criterion Method
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal position size that maximizes the long-term growth of capital, considering both the probability of winning and the payoff ratio (risk-reward). It’s a more sophisticated method that balances risk and reward in an optimal way.
Kelly Criterion method needs a consistent data on the expected win ratio. As and when the win ratio changes, the position sizing will adjust automatically.
Formula is as follows
f = W - L/R
f: Fraction of your capital to bet.
W : Win Ratio
L : Loss Ratio (1-W)
R : Risk Reward for the trade
Let's say, you have a strategy that provides 60% win ratio with risk reward of 1.5, then the calculation of position size in terms of percent will be as follows
f = 0.6 - 0.4/1.5 = 0.33
Pinescript equivalent of this calculation will be
riskReward = 2
factor = 0.1
winPercent = strategy.wintrades/(strategy.wintrades+strategy.losstrades)
kkPercent = winPercent - (1-winPercent)/riskReward
tradeAmount = strategy.equity * kkPercent * factor
tradeQty = tradeAmount/entryPrice
🎲 High Risk Position Sizing Strategies
These strategies are considered very high risk and high reward. These are also the strategies that need higher win ratio in order to work effectively.
🎯Martingale Strategy
The Martingale method is a progressive betting strategy where the position size is doubled after every loss. The goal is to recover all previous losses with a single win. The basic idea is that after a loss, you double the size of the next trade to make back the lost money (and make a profit equal to the original bet size).
How it Works:
If you lose a trade, you increase your position size on the next trade.
You keep doubling the position size until you win.
Once you win, you return to the original position size and start the process again.
To implement martingale in Pine strategy, we would need to calculate the last consecutive losses before placing the trade. It can be done via following code.
var consecutiveLosses = 0
if(ta.change(strategy.closedtrades) > 0)
lastProfit = strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades-1)
consecutiveLosses := lastProfit > 0? 0 : consecutiveLosses + 1
Quantity can be calculated using the number of consecutive losses
qtyMultiplier = math.pow(2, consecutiveLosses)
baseQty = 1
tradeQty = baseQty * qtyMultiplier
🎯Paroli System (also known as the Reverse Martingale)
The Paroli System is similar to the Anti-Martingale strategy but with more defined limits on how much you increase your position after each win. It's a progressive betting system where you increase your position after a win, but once you've won a set number of times, you reset to the original bet size.
How it Works:
Start with an initial bet.
After each win, increase your bet by a predetermined amount (often doubling it).
After a set number of wins (e.g., 3 wins in a row), reset to the original position size.
To implement inverse martingale or Paroli system through pinescript, we need to first calculate consecutive wins.
var consecutiveWins = 0
var maxLimit = 3
if(ta.change(strategy.closedtrades) > 0)
lastProfit = strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades-1)
consecutiveWins := lastProfit > 0? consecutiveWins + 1 : 0
if(consecutiveWins >= maxLimit)
consecutiveWins := 0
The quantity is then calculated using a similar formula as that of Martingale, but using consecutiveWins
qtyMultiplier = math.pow(2, consecutiveWins)
baseQty = 1
tradeQty = baseQty * qtyMultiplier
🎯D'Alembert Strategy
The D'Alembert strategy is a more conservative progression method than Martingale. You increase your bet by one unit after a loss and decrease it by one unit after a win. This is a slow, incremental approach compared to the rapid growth of the Martingale system.
How it Works:
Start with a base bet (e.g., $1).
After each loss, increase your bet by 1 unit.
After each win, decrease your bet by 1 unit (but never go below the base bet).
In order to find the position size on pinescript strategy, we can use following code
// Initial position
initialposition = 1.0
var position = initialposition
// Step to increase or decrease position
step = 2
if(ta.change(strategy.closedtrades) > 0)
lastProfit = strategy.closedtrades.profit(strategy.closedtrades-1)
position := lastProfit > 0 ? math.max(initialposition, position-step) : position+step
Conclusion
Position sizing is a crucial part of trading strategy that directly impacts your ability to manage risk and achieve long-term profitability. By selecting the appropriate position sizing method, traders can ensure they are taking on an acceptable level of risk while maximizing their potential rewards. The key to success lies in understanding each strategy, testing it, and applying it consistently to align with your risk tolerance and trading objectives.
Your Best Trading Signal Formula Revealed (Forex, Gold)
If you are looking for a way to increase the accuracy of your trades, I prepared for you a simple yet powerful checklist that you can apply to validate your trades.
✔️ - The trades fit my trading plan
When you are planning to open a trade, make sure that it is strictly based on your rules and your entry reasons match your trading plan.
For example, imagine you found some good reasons to buy USDJPY pair, and you decide to open a long trade. However, checking your trading plan, you have an important rule there - the market should strictly lie on a key level.
The current market conditions do not fit your trading plan, so you skip that trade.
✔️ - The trade is in the direction with the trend
That condition is mainly addressed to the newbie traders.
Trading against the trend is much more complicated and riskier than trend-following trading, for that reason, I always recommend my students sticking with the trend.
Even though USDCHF formed a cute double bottom pattern after a strong bearish trend, and it is appealing to buy the oversold market, it is better to skip that trade because it is the position against the current trend.
✔️ - The trade has stop loss and target level
Know in advance where will be your goal for the trade and where you will close the position in a loss.
If you think that it is a good idea to buy gold now, but you have no clue how far it will go and where can be the target, do not take such a trade.
You should know your tp/sl before you open the trade.
✔️ - The trade has a good risk to reward ratio
Planning the trade, your potential reward should outweigh the potential risks. And of course, there are always the speculations about the optimal risk to reward ratio, however, try to have at least 1.3 R/R ratio.
Planning a long trade on EURNZD with a safe stop loss being below the current support and target - the local high, you can see that you get a negative r/r ratio, meaning that the potential risk is bigger than the potential reward. Such a trade is better to skip.
✔️ - I am ok with losing this trade if the market goes against me
Remember that even the best trading setups may occasionally fail. You should always be prepared for losses, and always keep in mind that 100% winning setups do not exist.
If you are not ready to lose, do not even open the position then.
✔️ - There are no important news events ahead
That rule is again primarily addressed to newbies because ahead and during the important news releases we have sudden volatility spikes.
Planning the trade, check the economic calendar, filtering top important news.
If important fundamentals are expected in the coming hours, it's better to wait until the news release first.
Taking a long trade on Gold, you should check the fundamentals first. Only after you confirm, that there are no fundamentals coming soon, you can open the position.
What I like about that checklist is that it is very simple, but you can use it whether you are a complete newbie or an experienced trader.
Try it and let me know if it helps you to improve your trading performance.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
HOW FOREX BROKERS MANIPULATE YOU TRADING? Real Example
Last month, I spotted a nice trading position on NZDCAD forex pair.
I shared that with my TradingView subscribers immediately after I placed the trade.
Though, the price moved exactly as it was predicted, the half of the members did not make any penny from this signal, while another half made a nice profit.
It happened because of one rare thing that I absolutely hate in trading.
Learn about a major frustration and market manipulation in trading, that no one will tell you about.
Here is the trading position that I spotted.
It was a classic price action trading setup based on a double top pattern.
Trade was taken on a retest of a broken neckline aiming at the closest strong support and stop loss lying about the tops.
Though, initially, the market started to fall rapidly. But it reversed, not being able to reach the target.
Watching that bullish rally resumes, I send the signal to my students to close the trade on entry, and I also did that personally.
I felt myself quite sad that I did not mange cash out from that trade.
Later on in the evening, surprisingly, I started to receive multiple thank you messages from my members that they made a good profit with that signal.
How could it be?
I decided to anonymously ask the members, how did they close the trade.
More than half of the members replied that the trade reached take profit.
Can it be possible? My TP was not reached and it was still quite far from the lowest low.
Now, examine the trading setup on NZDCAD on charts of different popular forex brokers.
On these 6 charts, you can see NZDCAD pair on OANDA, CAPITALCOM, IC MARKETS, ICE, FXCM, FOREX.COM brokers.
While in half of the instances TP was not reached, in other half, TP was reached and the price went even lower.
Why it happened?
There are the rare situations in Forex trading, when the price action on one broker can be very different from another.
It happens because different brokers have different liquidity providers, spreads, order execution methods and so on.
That is why the selection of a good broker is so vital in trading.
If you use TradingView for chart analysis, make sure that you watch all the instruments of one broker.
Moreover, once you start trading your strategy, always check how the price acted with different broker quotes.
If you will see a lot of instances that your tp is not hit, while on another broker it would, it will be a signal for you to change the broker.
When I started learning trading, no one told be that important nuance of Forex trading.
But knowing that is a very significant step in your trading journey.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Starting over in trading- A short guideThe internet has made it easier than ever to learn trading for free. You have access to blogs, videos, books, podcasts, and more. Yet, most traders still fail.
Why?
Because there’s too much information. It’s overwhelming, confusing, and filled with conflicting advice.
So, if I had to start over from scratch, here’s exactly how I’d do it—step by step.
________________________________________
Step 1: Master Risk Management
No matter what type of trader you become—day trader, swing trader, options trader, quantitative trader, etc.—risk management is the foundation of long-term success.
It’s also one of the easiest things to master, and once you do, it will pay off for the rest of your trading career.
Risk Management Essentials:
✅ Never risk more than 1-2% of your account per trade.
✅ Always use stop losses to protect your capital.
✅ Focus on risk-to-reward ratios (aim for at least 1:2 or better).
✅ Manage position sizing properly to avoid blowing up your account.
Once you understand how to protect your capital, it’s time to expose yourself to the trading world.
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Step 2: Learn & Explore Different Trading Styles
When you're just starting, you don’t know what you don’t know.
Your goal at this stage is to explore different trading strategies, tools, and methods.
What to Learn:
🔹 Candlestick patterns & price action
🔹 Indicators (moving averages, RSI , MACD , etc.)
🔹 Chart patterns (head & shoulders, triangles, etc.)
🔹 Market structures (support/resistance, trends, ranges)
🔹 Different trading styles (day trading, swing trading, scalping, momentum trading, etc.)
Mindset for This Phase:
🚀 Keep an open mind—don’t judge strategies too early.
🚀 Focus on learning rather than making money right away.
🚀 Accept that not everything will work for you—and that’s okay.
At this stage, your goal is not to become an expert in everything but to discover what resonates with you.
________________________________________
Step 3: Pick ONE Strategy & Go Deep
After exploring different strategies, you need to commit to ONE.
This eliminates information overload and allows you to focus on mastering a single trading method.
How to Choose a Strategy:
🔹 Does it fit your personality? (e.g., If you hate fast decision-making, avoid scalping.)
🔹 Does it match your lifestyle? (e.g., If you have a full-time job, swing trading might be better than day trading.)
🔹 Can you understand the logic behind it? (A good strategy should be simple, not overly complicated.)
Example: Mean Reversion Strategy in Stocks
• Identify stocks in an uptrend 📈
• Wait for a pullback (price moves lower)
• Enter when the stock shows signs of resuming the trend
• Sell on the next rally
By focusing on one strategy, you eliminate confusion and make faster progress.
________________________________________
Step 4: Create & Refine Your Trading Plan
Now that you have a strategy, it’s time to turn it into a structured trading plan.
Your trading plan should include:
✅ Market Conditions – When will you trade? Trending or ranging markets?
✅ Entry Rules – What signals will you use to enter a trade?
✅ Exit Rules – When will you take profits or cut losses?
✅ Risk Management – How much will you risk per trade?
💡 Example Trading Plan (Momentum Trading):
• Market: Trade only in strong uptrends.
• Entry: Buy when the price breaks above a key resistance level.
• Exit: Take profit at 2x risk, cut losses at a 1x risk.
• Risk Management: Risk only 1% of the account per trade.
A clear, structured plan removes emotion from trading and keeps you disciplined.
________________________________________
Step 5: Test Your Strategy (Before Risking Real Money)
You never know if a strategy works until you test it.
How to Test a Trading Strategy:
🔹 Backtesting – Analyze past data to see if the strategy has worked historically.
🔹 Forward Testing (Paper Trading) – Trade in a demo account without real money.
What You’ll Learn from Testing:
✔️ Does the strategy make money over time?
✔️ How often does it win vs. lose?
✔️ How big are the drawdowns?
✔️ Does it match your risk tolerance?
If the strategy performs well in testing, you now have a solid foundation to trade with real money.
If it doesn’t work, tweak and improve it—this is part of the process.
________________________________________
Final Thoughts: The Key to Long-Term Success
Starting over isn’t about finding the “perfect” system —it’s about following a structured approach.
Here’s the Path to Trading Success:
1️⃣ Master Risk Management – Protect your capital first.
2️⃣ Learn & Explore – Understand different strategies & tools.
3️⃣ Pick ONE Strategy – Focus on a proven method.
4️⃣ Create a Trading Plan – Define your rules clearly.
5️⃣ Test & Improve – Validate your strategy before going live.
🔥 Bonus Tip: Trading success is 80% psychology and 20% strategy. Stay patient, disciplined, and treat trading like a business—not a get-rich-quick scheme.
How to Choose the Right Leverage in Trading: What Metters?One of the most common questions I get from beginner traders is: What leverage should I use ?
And every time, my answer is the same: The leverage offered by the broker is irrelevant. What truly matters is the position size you control in the market.
Understanding Leverage in Trading
Leverage is a tool that allows you to control a larger amount of money in the market than you actually have in your account. Brokers regulated in the U.S., EU, or Australia limit leverage to 1:30, but in other jurisdictions, these restrictions do not apply, and brokers may offer leverage of 1:200 or even higher.
What does this mean? Let’s take a concrete example:
• You have an account with $1,000.
• Your broker offers 1:200 leverage.
• This means you can control $200,000 in the market.
Although this may sound tempting, you must understand that your profit and loss are calculated based on the amount controlled, not your initial capital.
The Real Risk of High Leverage
Let’s assume you open a position using the full leverage available and control $200,000 in the market.
• If the market moves 100 pips against you, your loss is $2,000.
• Your $1,000 account is completely wiped out in just 50 pips of adverse movement.
In other words, high leverage can quickly take you out of the game if you do not manage your risk properly.
How to Trade Safely
If you have an account of $1,000, it is recommended to control much smaller amounts in the market to reduce risk.
A safer approach would be:
• To control $5,000, meaning you open a position of 0.05 lots.
• If you have a higher risk appetite, a maximum of 0.1 lots, which means you control $10,000 in the market.
This way, a 100-pip movement against you will not completely wipe out your account, giving you a better chance to manage risk and learn from experience.
Conclusion
The leverage offered by the broker does not matter; what matters is the position size you open. Set an appropriate risk level for your account and do not be tempted by high leverage offered by brokers. Survival in trading depends on proper risk management, not on how big you can bet on each trade.
Mastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate GuideMastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate Guide
In the world of trading, success isn’t measured only by big wins but by how well you protect your capital from unnecessary losses. Risk management isn’t just a safety net—it’s the backbone of sustainable trading. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down the principles and strategies you need to safeguard your account while still maximizing your profit potential.
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1. Risk-Reward Ratio: The Foundation of Every Trade
- What it is:
The risk-reward ratio is the cornerstone of every trade. It tells you how much potential reward you’re targeting compared to the risk you’re willing to take. For instance, if you risk $100 and aim to make $200, your risk-reward ratio is 1:2—a commonly accepted standard in trading.
- How to use it:
- Always predefine your risk-reward ratio before entering a trade.
- For swing traders, aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3 to justify holding overnight.
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2. Position Sizing: The Key to Survival
- Why position sizing matters:
Position sizing ensures you don’t over-leverage your account or lose too much in a single trade. Many traders fail because they bet too big and get wiped out after just a few losing trades.
- How to calculate position size:
- Use this formula:
Position Size = (Account Risk $ ÷ (Entry Price - Stop-Loss Price)).
- For example, if you’re risking $100 per trade and the difference between your entry and stop-loss is $5, your position size should be 20 units (100 ÷ 5).
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3. Stop-Loss Orders: Your Safety Net
- What is a stop-loss?
A stop-loss is your emergency brake. It’s an order you set in advance to sell your position if the price moves against you by a specified amount.
- How to set stop-losses:
- Use technical analysis to place your stop-loss below support levels for long trades or above resistance levels for short trades.
- Avoid placing stop-losses too close to your entry point, as small fluctuations might trigger them unnecessarily.
Here you can see my ratio is on the low side so i can place a tactical TP and SL in relation to liquidity lines.
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4. The Art of Diversification: Spreading Risk
- Why diversification works:
Putting all your capital into a single trade or instrument increases your risk. Diversification spreads that risk across multiple trades or markets, reducing the impact of any single loss.
- How to diversify effectively:
- Trade across multiple sectors or currency pairs.
- Avoid overexposure to correlated assets (e.g., don’t trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD simultaneously).
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5. Emotional Discipline: Winning the Mental Game
- Why it matters:
Even the best trading strategy can fail if emotions like fear or greed take over. Emotional trading leads to impulsive decisions, revenge trading, and overtrading.
- How to maintain discipline:
- Stick to your trading plan, no matter what.
- Use tools like meditation, journaling, or physical exercise to manage stress.
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6. Dynamic Risk Management: Adapting to Changing Markets
- Adjusting your strategy:
Markets are dynamic, and your risk management should adapt. Volatility can change quickly, requiring you to adjust your stop-loss distance or position size.
- Use ATR (Average True Range):
The ATR is a great tool to measure market volatility and decide how much room to give your stop-loss.
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7. Tracking and Reviewing Your Trades
- The power of a trading journal:
Every trade is a learning opportunity. Keep detailed records of your trades, including your reasoning, execution, and results.
- What to include in your journal:
- Entry and exit points.
- Risk-reward ratio.
- Mistakes or deviations from the plan.
- Lessons learned.
---
Conclusion: Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan
Risk management isn’t just a skill—it’s a habit. By understanding your risk-reward ratio, managing position sizes, using stop-losses effectively, and staying emotionally disciplined, you can protect your capital and increase your chances of long-term success.
Take a moment to reflect: How do you manage risk in your trading? Are there areas you could improve? Start implementing these strategies today, and watch how they transform your trading results.
High Volatility Trade Management & Risk Management Strategies
With a current geopolitical uncertainty and the election of Trump, forex market and gold experience wild price fluctuations. These unpredictable swings can result in substantial losses, particularly for the beginners in trading.
In this article, I will share with you the essential trade management and risk management tips for dealing with extreme volatility in trading.
I will reveal proven strategies and techniques for avoiding losses and unexpected risks.
1. First and foremost, pay attention to the news.
The main driver of high volatility on the markets are the news , especially the bad ones.
In normal times, high impact news events are relatively rare, while in times of uncertainty their frequency increases dramatically.
Such news may easily invalidate the best technical analysis setup: any powerful support or resistance level, strong price action or candle stick pattern can be easily overturned by the fundamentals.
Trump tariffs threats against Canada made USDCAD rise by 400 pips rapidly, while the change of rhetoric quickly returned the prices to previous levels.
One you hold an active trade, monitor the news. If you see the impactful news that may affect the pair or instrument that you trade, immediately protect your position, moving stop loss to entry.
It will help you avoid losses if the market starts going against you.
2. Even constantly monitoring the news, you will not be able to protect yourself from all the surprising movements.
Sometimes your trades will quickly be closed in a loss.
Therefore, I strictly recommend measure a lot size for every trade that you take. Make sure that you risk no more than 1% of your trading account per trade. That will help you to minimize losses cased by the impactful, uncertain events.
3. The impactful events may also occur on weekend, while Forex market is closed. Such incidents can be the cause of huge gap openings.
If you hold an active trading position over the weekend, remember that your entire account can be easily blown with such gaps.
Imagine that you decided to buy EURUSD on Friday during the NY session and keep holding the position over the weekend.
A huge gap down opening would make you face huge losses, opening the market 125 pips below the entry level.
By the way, this day I received a dozen of messages from my followers that their accounts were blown with the opening gaps.
4. If you see a significant price movement caused by some events, and you did not manage to catch it, let it go.
Jumping in such movements is very risky because quite ofter correctional movements will follow quickly.
It will be much safer and better to try to be involved in a trend continuation after a pullback.
Look what happened with Gold when Trump began a new trade war.
The price started to grow rapidly. However, even during such a sentiment, 500 pips pullback occurred, giving patient traders a safe entry point for the trade.
5. In the midst of geopolitical tensions and trade wars, the markets tend to rally or fall for the extended time periods.
The best trading strategies to use to get maximum from such movements are trend-following strategies.
While reversal, counter-trend trading might be extremely risky, providing a lot of false signals.
Trend trading may bring extraordinary profits.
These trading tips, risk management and trade management strategies and secrets are tailored for cutting and avoiding losses during dark times. Empower your strategy with this useful knowledge and good luck to you in trading high volatility on Gold and Forex.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DOGS Main Trend. Tactics of Working on Risky Crypto 03 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Tactics of working on super-risky cryptocurrencies of low liquidity, which are always sold (without loading the glass), by the creators of “nothing”. In order to increase sales, of course, when they rationally reverse the trend and make pumps at a large % and marketing positive news "have time to buy". On such assets with such liquidity, “killed faith” (at the moment), and control of the emission in “one hand” it is not difficult. Something like in BabyDOGE.
On such assets you should always remember:
1️⃣ allocate a certain amount for work in general on such assets from the deposit as a whole.
2️⃣ distribute money (potential reversal and decline zones) from this allocated amount to each similar asset in advance.
3️⃣ diversify similar assets themselves (5-10 cryptocurrencies), understanding that sooner or later they will scam. The scam of one of them should not be reflected significantly on the balance of the pump/dump group of low liquidity. It is impossible to guess everything that does not depend on you, and it is not necessary. Your miscalculations (what does not depend on you) are smoothed out by your initial trading plan and risk control, that is, money management (money management).
4️⃣ Set adequate goals. Part of the position locally trade 40-80% (not necessary, but this sometimes reduces the risk).
5️⃣ Work with trigger orders and lower them if they did not work and the price falls.
6️⃣ Remember that in consolidation and cut zones in assets of such liquidity, stops are always knocked out, so the size of the stop does not really matter. It will be knocked out, especially before the reversal.
7️⃣ Before the reversal of the secondary trend, as a rule, they first do a “hamster pump” by a conditionally significant %, when everyone is "tired of waiting". They absorb all sales. Then the main pumping without passengers by a very large % takes place to form a distribution zone. As a rule, it will be lower than the pump highs, that is, in the zone when they are not afraid to buy, but believe that after a large pump, the highs will be overcome significantly.
8️⃣ Remember that assets of such liquidity decrease after listings or highs by:
a) active hype, bull market -50-70%
b) secondary trend without extraordinary events -90-93%
c) cycle change -96-98% or scam, if it is a 1-2 cycle project (there is no point in supporting the legend, how it is easier to make a candy wrapper from scratch without believing holders with coins).
9️⃣In the capitulation zone, there can be several of them depending on the trend of the market as a whole and rationality, the asset is of no interest to anyone. Everyone gets the impression that everything is a scam. That is, on the contrary, you need to collect the asset, observing money management, that is, your initial distribution of money and the risk that you agreed with in advance. As a rule, in such zones people "give up" and abandon their earlier vision.
🔟 After the entire position is set (pre-planned, according to your money management), stop and do not get stuck in the market and news noise. Wait for your first goals.
Remember, people always buy expensive, and refuse to buy cheap ("it's a scam", they try to "catch the bottom"), when "the Internet is not buzzing". This all happens because there is no vision, and as a consequence, no tactics of work and risk control . Many want to guess the “bottom”, or “maximums”, and refuse to sell when they are reached. The first and second are not conditionally available, on assets of such liquidity and emission control. But, there are probabilities that you can operate and earn on this, without getting stuck in the market noise. And also in the opinions of the majority (inclination to the dominant opinion and rejection of your plan and risk control), from which you must fence yourself off.
Most people, immersed in market noise and the opinions of others , choose for themselves the price movement, which is beneficial to them at the moment , and to which they are inclined, but do not provide themselves with the tactics of work. This is a key mistake, and the main manipulation that the conditional manipulator achieves, who, by the way, is sometimes not on the asset, to form an opinion and, as a consequence, the actions of the majority.
Because, in essence, most people do not have the tactics of work. Where the news FUD (inclination to the dominant opinion), “market noise” (cutting zones and collecting liquidity), the opinion of the majority, is directed, that is what they are inclined to.
When the price goes in the other direction, it is disappointment.
If these are futures — liquidation of the position. Zeroing out due to greed.
If this is spot — "proud random holders" , without the ability to average the position (no money), to reduce the average price of the position set as a whole, and as a result increase the % of profit in the future.
A trading plan and risk control are the basis, not guessing the price movement. If you do not have the first “two whales” of trading in your arsenal, then you have nothing. It doesn't matter how much you guess the potential movement, as the outcome of such practice is always the same, and it is not comforting.
Trading Miscalibration: Crypto Aims Too High, FX Aims Too LowI was thinking about something fascinating—the way traders approach different markets and, in my opinion...
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is failing to calibrate their expectations based on the market they’re trading.
📌 In crypto, traders dream of 100x gains, refusing to take profits on a 30-50% move because they believe their coin is going to the moon.
📌 In Forex and gold, the same traders shrink their expectations, chasing 20-30 pip moves instead of riding 200-500 pip trends.
Ironically, both approaches lead to frustration:
🔴 Crypto traders regret not taking profits when the market crashes.
🔴 FX and gold traders regret not holding longer when the market runs without them.
If you want to be a profitable trader, you must align your strategy with the reality of the market you’re trading.
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Crypto: Stop Aiming for the Moon—Trade Realistic Outcomes
Crypto markets are highly volatile, and while 10x or 100x gains can happen, they are rare and unpredictable. However, many traders have been conditioned to expect extreme returns, leading them to ignore solid 30-50% gains—which are already fantastic trades in any market.
🔴 The Problem: Holding Too Long & Missing Profits
Many traders refuse to take profits on a 30-50% move, convinced that a 10x ride is around the corner. But when the market reverses, those unrealized gains disappear—sometimes turning into losses.
🚨 Frustration:
"I was up 50%, but I got greedy, and now I’m back to break-even—or worse!"
✅ The Fix: Take Profits at 30-50% Instead of Waiting for 10x
✔️ Take partial profits at key resistance levels.
✔️ Use a trailing stop to lock in gains while allowing for further upside.
✔️ Understand that even professional traders take profits when they’re available—they don’t blindly hold for the next 100x.
📉 Example:
If Bitcoin jumps 30% in a month, that’s already a massive move! Instead of waiting for 200%, a disciplined trader locks in profits along the way. Similarly, if an altcoin is up 50% in two weeks, securing profits makes sense—instead of watching it all disappear in a market dump.
________________________________________
FX and Gold: Stop Thinking Small—Aim for Big Market Trends
On the other hand, when it comes to Forex and gold, many traders shrink their expectations too much. Instead of capturing multi-hundred-pip moves, they settle for 20-30 pip scalps, constantly entering and exiting the market, exposing themselves to unnecessary whipsaws.
🔴 The Problem: Exiting Too Early & Missing Big Trends
Unlike crypto, where traders hold too long, in FX and gold, they don’t hold long enough. Instead of riding a 200-500 pip move, they panic-exit for a small profit, only to watch the market continue without them.
🚨 Frustration:
"I closed at 30 pips, but the market kept running for 300 pips! I left so much money on the table!"
✅ The Fix: Target 200-500 Pip Moves Instead of Scalping
✔️ Focus on higher timeframes (4H, daily) for clearer trends.
✔️ Set realistic yet ambitious targets —200-300 pips in Forex, 300-500 pips in gold.
✔️ Use a strong risk-reward ratio (1:2, 1:3, even 1:5) instead of taking premature profits.
📉 Example:
• If EUR/USD starts a strong downtrend, why settle for 30 pips when the pair could drop 250 pips in a week?
• If gold breaks a major resistance level, a move of 300-500 pips is entirely possible—but you won’t catch it if you exit at 50 pips.
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Why Traders Fail to Calibrate Properly
So why do traders fall into this misalignment of expectations?
1️⃣ Social Media & Hype Culture – Crypto traders are bombarded with "to the moon" narratives, making them feel like 30-50% gains are not enough. Meanwhile, in Forex, traders get stuck in a scalping mindset, thinking that small, frequent wins are the only way to trade.
2️⃣ Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) vs. Fear of Losing Profits (FOLP)
• In crypto, FOMO keeps traders holding too long. They don’t want to miss "the big one," so they refuse to take profits.
• In FX and gold, fear of losing small profits makes traders exit too soon. They don’t let trades develop because they fear a pullback.
3️⃣ Misunderstanding Market Structure – Each market moves differently. Crypto is highly volatile but doesn’t always go 10x. Forex and gold move slower but offer consistent multi-hundred-pip trends. Many traders don’t adjust their strategies accordingly.
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The Solution: Align Your Strategy with the Market
🔥 In crypto, don’t wait for 10x— start taking profits at 30-50%.
🔥 In FX and gold, don’t settle for 30 pips—hold for 200-500 pip moves.
By making this simple mental shift, you’ll:
✅ Trade smarter, not harder
✅ Increase profitability by targeting realistic moves
✅ Reduce stress and overtrading
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Final Thoughts: No More Frustration!
The calibration problem leads to frustration in both cases:
⚠️ Crypto traders regret not taking profits when the market crashes.
⚠️ FX and gold traders regret not holding longer when the market trends.
💡 The solution? Trade according to the market's behavior, not emotions.
Stop chasing 20-30 pips if you want to become profitableOne of the biggest obstacles for traders who want to become consistently profitable is the mindset of chasing small 20-30 pip moves.
While it may seem appealing to enter and exit trades quickly for immediate profits, this strategy is often inefficient, risky, and unsustainable in the long run. Here’s why you should change your approach if you want to succeed in trading.
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1. Trading Costs Eat Into Your Profits
When you target small moves, you need to open and close many trades. This means that spreads and commissions will eat up a significant portion of your profits. If you have a spread of 2-3 pips (depending on the pair) and you’re only aiming for 20-30 pips per trade, a consistent percentage of your potential gains is lost to execution costs.
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2. High Risk Compared to Reward
A smart trader focuses on a favorable risk-reward ratio, such as 1:2, 1:3 or even 1:4. When you chase just 20-30 pips, your stop-loss has to be very tight, making you highly vulnerable to the normal volatility of the market. An unexpected news release or a liquidity spike can stop you out before the price even reaches your target.
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3. You Miss Big Moves and Real Opportunities
Professional traders focus on larger trends and significant price movements of hundreds of pips. The market doesn’t move in a straight line; it goes through consolidations, pullbacks, and major trends. If you’re busy trading short-term 20-30 pip moves, you’ll likely miss the big trends that offer more sustainable profits and better risk management.
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4. Increased Stress and Emotional Trading
Short-term trading requires constant monitoring and quick decision-making. This increases your level of stress and negative emotions like fear and greed, leading to costly mistakes. In the long run, this trading style is mentally exhausting and difficult to sustain.
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How to Change Your Approach to Become Profitable
✅ Think in terms of larger trends – Focus on 200-300+ pip moves instead of small fluctuations.
✅ Aim for a strong risk-reward ratio – Look for setups with at least 1:2 risk-reward to maximize your profits.
✅ Use higher timeframes – Charts like 4H or daily provide clearer signals and reduce market noise.
✅ Be patient and wait for the best setups – Don’t enter trades just for the sake of activity; wait for high-probability opportunities.
Possible vs. Probable in Trading — Most Traders Ignore ThisOne of the biggest mistakes traders make — especially beginners — is confusing what is possible with what is probable.
This confusion leads to poor decisions, unnecessary risks, and eventually, losses that could have been easily avoided.
Possible and Probable Are NOT the Same Thing
Let's make this very clear:
• Possible means it can happen.
• Probable means it is likely to happen, based on evidence and context.
In life, many things are possible — but that doesn’t mean we should live our lives preparing for each possible (and often extreme) event.
To give you a real-life example: it’s possible that something falls from the roof top of a builing and hits you while shopping and die. Sadly, this actually happened in Romania about a month ago.
But as rare and tragic as it is, it’s not probable. And it definitely doesn’t mean that we should stop going outside, right?
Trading Is a Game of Probabilities, Not Possibilities
When trading, we are not betting on what is possible.
If we did, we would enter trades every time we imagine a price could go higher or lower — and that would be a disaster.
Instead, we are betting on what is probable — based on:
• Technical analysis
• Price action
• Market context
• Volume
• Sentiment
⚠️ Yes, it is always possible for price to go in either direction.
But our edge comes from identifying what is more likely to happen based on the data we have.
Why This Difference Is Crucial for Your Trading Success
✅ Focusing on probabilities means:
• You enter only high-probability setups.
• You manage risk properly because you accept that nothing is 100% sure.
• You avoid chasing trades just because "it’s possible" something happens.
❌ Focusing on possibilities leads to:
• Overtrading
• Emotional decisions
• Hoping instead of following a plan
• Blowing up accounts
Conclusion: Trade Like a Professional — Trade Probabilities
Remember:
"Anything is possible, but not everything is probable."
If you want to survive and thrive in the markets, focus on probabilities — not on fantasies of what could happen.
You are not trading "maybe this happens", you are trading "this is likely to happen, and I’m managing my risk if it doesn’t".
Make this shift in mindset, and you’ll already be ahead of most traders out there.
Exploring the Main Components of a Powerful Trading Journal
In one of the previous posts, we discussed the significance of a trading journal. In the today's article, I will share with you the key elements of a trading journal of a professional trader.
And first, a quick reminder that a trading journal is essential for your trading success. No matter on which level you are at the moment, you should always keep track of your results.
Let's go through the list of the things that you should include in your journal.
1 - Trading Instrument
The symbol where the order is executed.
You need that in order to analyze the performance of trading a particular instrument.
2 - Date
The date of the opening of the position. Some traders also include the exact time of the execution.
3 - Risk
Percentage of the account balance at risk.
Even though some traders track the lot of sizes instead, I do believe that the percentage data is more important and may give more insights.
4 - Entry Reason
The set of conditions that were met to open the trade.
In that section, I recommend to note as much data as possible.
It will be applied in future for the identification of the weaknesses of your strategy.
5 - Risk Reward Ratio
The expected returns in relation to potential risks.
6 - Results
Gain or loss in percentage.
And again, some traders track the pip value of the gain, however,
in my view, the percentage points are more relevant for studying the statistics.
Here is the example of the trade on Gold:
Here is how exactly you should journal the following trade:
Instrumet: Gold (XAUUSD)
Date: 03.07.2023
Risk: 1%
Entry Reason: H&S Pattern Formation,
Neckline Breakout & Retest
R/R Ratio: 1.77
Results: +1.77%
Of course, depending on your trading strategy and your personal goals, some other elements can be added. However, the list that I propose is the absolute minimum that you should track.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Donchian Channel Strategy like The Turtles TradersThe Turtle Traders strategy is a legendary trend-following system developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s to prove that trading could be taught systematically to novices. Dennis, a successful commodities trader, bet Eckhardt that he could train a group of beginners—nicknamed "Turtles"—to trade profitably using strict rules. The experiment worked, with the Turtles reportedly earning over $100 million collectively. Here’s a detailed breakdown of their strategy, focusing on the core components as documented in public sources like Curtis Faith’s Way of the Turtle and other accounts from the era.
Core Philosophy
Trend Following: The Turtles aimed to capture large price trends in any direction (up or down) across diverse markets—commodities, currencies, bonds, and later stocks.
Systematic Rules: Every decision—entry, exit, position size—was predefined. No discretion allowed.
Volatility-Based: Risk and position sizing adjusted to each market’s volatility, not fixed dollar amounts.
Long-Term Focus: They targeted multi-month trends, ignoring short-term noise.
Two Trading Systems
The Turtles used two complementary breakout systems—System 1 (shorter-term) and System 2 (longer-term). They’d trade both simultaneously across a portfolio of markets.
System 1: Shorter-Term Breakout
Entry:
Buy when the price breaks above the 20-day high (highest high of the past 20 days).
Sell short when the price breaks below the 20-day low.
Skip the trade if the prior breakout (within 20 days) was profitable—avoid whipsaws after a winning move.
Initial Stop Loss:
Exit longs if the price drops 2N below entry (N = 20-day Average True Range, a volatility measure).
Exit shorts if the price rises 2N above entry.
Example: Entry at $100, N = $2, stop at $96 for a long.
Trailing Stop:
Exit longs if the price breaks below the 10-day low.
Exit shorts if the price breaks above the 10-day high.
Time Frame: Aimed for trends lasting weeks to a couple of months.
System 2: Longer-Term Breakout
Entry:
Buy when the price breaks above the 55-day high.
Sell short when the price breaks below the 55-day low.
No skip rule—take every breakout, even after a winner.
Initial Stop Loss:
Same as System 1: 2N below entry for longs, 2N above for shorts.
Trailing Stop:
Exit longs if the price breaks below the 20-day low.
Exit shorts if the price breaks above the 20-day high.
Time Frame: Targeted trends lasting several months (e.g., 6-12 months).
Position Sizing
Volatility (N): N, or “noise,” was the 20-day Average True Range (ATR)—the average daily price movement. It normalized risk across markets.
Unit Size:
Risk 1% of account equity per trade, adjusted by N.
Formula: Units = (1% of Account) / (N × Dollar Value per Point).
Example: $1M account, 1% = $10,000. Corn N = 0.5 cents, $50 per point. Units = $10,000 / (0.5 × $50) = 400 contracts.
Scaling In: Add positions as the trend confirms:
Long: Add 1 unit every ½N above entry (e.g., entry $100, N = $2, add at $101, $102, etc.).
Short: Add every ½N below entry.
Max 4 units per breakout, 12 units total per market across systems.
Risk Management
Portfolio Limits:
Max 4 units in a single market (e.g., corn).
Max 10 units in closely correlated markets (e.g., grains).
Max 12 units in one direction (long or short) across all markets.
Stop Loss: The 2N stop capped risk per unit. If N widened after entry, the stop stayed fixed unless manually adjusted (rare).
Drawdown Rule: If account dropped 10%, cut position sizes by 20% until recovery.
Markets Traded
Commodities: Corn, soybeans, wheat, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gas.
Currencies: Swiss franc, Deutschmark, British pound, yen.
Bonds: U.S. Treasury bonds, 90-day T-bills.
Metals: Gold, silver, copper.
Diversification across 20-30 markets ensured uncorrelated trends.
Breaking the Trading Matrix: Lessons from The Matrix MovieThe Matrix is more than just a movie—it’s a mind-expanding experience that continues to offer new insights, no matter how many times you watch it. Beyond its philosophical depth and action-packed sequences, the film carries powerful lessons that can be applied to trading.
Just like in The Matrix, financial markets blur the line between reality and illusion. Success in trading requires a shift in perception, a willingness to embrace harsh truths, and the ability to decode the underlying structure of the market.
Let’s break down the key trading lessons inspired by The Matrix.
🕶️ Building Confidence: The Neo Path
Remember Neo’s journey? He started as Thomas Anderson—doubtful and uncertain—before transforming into the confident savior of humanity. This mirrors a trader’s evolution:
• You start hesitant and unsure.
• Greed and ego take over.
• The market humbles you with losses.
• You develop an edge, learning from experience.
• Over time, confidence and resilience grow.
Like Neo, every trader faces setbacks. But every setback is a setup for a comeback. Persistence and adaptation are key.
🏃♂️ Confirmation Bias: Dodging the Bullet
One of the most iconic scenes in The Matrix is Neo dodging bullets, bending reality to his advantage. Traders must do the same by reshaping their biases.
If you only seek confirmation for your trades, you’ll ignore critical counter-signals. To avoid this trap:
✅ Develop a trading system based on logic, not emotion.
✅ Seek diverse viewpoints instead of reinforcing your bias.
✅ Accept that the market moves on probabilities, not personal beliefs.
Dodge the confirmation bias bullet, and you’ll become a more objective and adaptable trader.
🔴 Take the Red Pill: Embrace Reality
In The Matrix, the red pill symbolizes awakening to the truth. In trading, taking the red pill means accepting the realities of the market:
❌ Traders who take the blue pill:
• Chase high win rates.
• Refuse to accept losses.
• Gamble with oversized positions.
✅ Traders who take the red pill:
• Accept risk as part of the game.
• Prepare for inevitable losses.
• Understand that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Those who ignore market realities are doomed to fail. Take the red pill and see the market for what it truly is.
🥄 There Is No Spoon: The Power of Perspective
In the famous "There is no spoon" scene, Neo learns that reality is shaped by perception. The same applies to trading:
• The market isn’t your enemy—your perception of it is.
• Stop trying to “bend” the market to your will.
• Instead, bend your mind to adapt to market conditions.
Traders who develop flexibility thrive, while those who resist change break.
🔢 Understand the Code – Understand the Matrix
Neo eventually sees the code behind The Matrix. Similarly, traders must understand the market’s underlying structure:
📊 Price Action
📈 Volume
📉 Probabilities
Markets move up, down, and sideways. Your job is to recognize patterns and decode them. The more you understand the code, the more clarity you gain in your trades.
👨💼 Agent Smith and Market Manipulators
Just as Agent Smith was a virus in The Matrix, market manipulators exist to exploit uninformed traders. Beware of:
🚨 Extreme volatility
📉 Unusual price gaps
❌ Pump-and-dump schemes
Stay vigilant and avoid manipulated markets that can drain your capital.
🏋️ Training Simulation: Practice Makes Perfect
Before Neo fought in the real world, he trained in simulated battles. Traders should do the same before risking real money:
✅ Backtest strategies to refine your edge.
✅ Use demo accounts to practice execution.
✅ Paper trade to gain confidence before going live.
Mistakes in training are free. Mistakes in live trading cost money. Train smartly.
🕶️ Morpheus’s Faith: Belief in Yourself
Morpheus believed in Neo before Neo believed in himself. Traders must also develop unwavering self-belief:
✔️ Trust your analysis.
✔️ Stick to your system.
✔️ Make decisions with confidence.
Doubt and hesitation lead to poor execution. Confidence, backed by preparation, leads to success.
🏛️ The Architect’s Plan: Strategy is Key
The Architect had a plan for The Matrix—every possible outcome was accounted for. Traders need the same level of structure:
📝 Develop a clear trading strategy.
🎯 Stick to your plan, even when emotions flare up.
⚖️ Adjust when necessary, but never trade impulsively.
Without a plan, you’re just another gambler in the market.
🧘 Free Your Mind: Emotional Control
Neo’s final test was to free his mind. In trading, emotional control is the ultimate skill:
✅ Backtest your system to understand market behavior.
✅ Risk less until you're comfortable with losses.
✅ Trade small before increasing position sizes.
Your worst enemies in trading?
❌ Ego
❌ Fear
❌ Greed
Master them, or the market will master you.
🔥 Final Words: The Path to Financial Awakening
Trading, like The Matrix, is a journey of self-discovery, discipline, and adaptation. If you want to break free from the illusion of quick riches and truly understand the market, you must:
📌 Develop confidence and resilience.
📌 Avoid confirmation bias and seek objective perspectives.
📌 Accept the harsh realities of trading.
📌 Adapt to market conditions instead of resisting them.
📌 Learn to read price action, volume, and probabilities.
📌 Stay vigilant against market manipulation.
📌 Practice before going live.
📌 Believe in yourself and your system.
📌 Have a structured plan and execute with discipline.
📌 Master your emotions to make rational decisions.
The real question is: Are you ready to free your mind and take control of your trading destiny?