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Risk Management

What is Trading Plan? Detailed Example A short ⚠️disclaimer before we start: the rules that will be discussed in this post are applicable only for technicians - traders that are relying on price action/structure/etc. Also, we assume that structure levels do work and for us, key levels are considered to be the safest trading zones/points. In order to increase the accuracy of your predictions analyzing different financial markets, you must learn to identify the direction of the market.📈 The identification of the market trend must be based on strict & reliable & testable rules. It can be based on technical indicators or price action Personally, I prefer to rely on price action. There are three main types of market trends: Bullish Trend Bearish Trend Sideways Market Depending on the current direction of the market, on the chart, I drew a flow chart✔️ that will help you to act safely. ➡️Sideways market signifies consolidation & indecision. Usually being in such a state the market tends to coil in horizontal ranges. To trade such a market safely, the best option for you will be to wait for a breakout of the range & wait for the initiation of the trend. ➡️Once you spotted a bullish market, do not rush to buy. Your task will be to identify the closest strong structure support . You must be patient enough to let the price reach that support first (and by the way, there is no guarantee that it will happen) and then you must wait for a certain confirmation. Only once you get the needed confirmation you can buy the market. ➡️The same strategy will be applicable to a bearish market. Spotting a short rally it is way early to just sell the asset from a random point. You must find the closest strong structure resistance and wait for the moment when the price will approach that. Then your task will be to wait for a confirmation and only when you got the reliable trigger you short the market. 🦉Try to rely on this flow chart and I promise you that you will see a dramatic increase in your trading performance. And even though it may appear to you that this flow chart is TOO SIMPLE, in practice, even such a set of rules requires iron discipline and patience. Thank you so much for reading this article, I hope you enjoy it! Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
10
Steps to Becoming a Profitable Trader This is a roadmap to becoming a profitable trader. Follow these steps to avoid wasting time and bouncing around from idea to idea. We start with a basic strategy idea we like, then build off it. We MAKE it profitable by following the steps outlined. 1. Focus on One Idea or Strategy Focus on one specific idea. An idea is not “price action” or “technical analysis”. That is too broad. But you could start with the idea of day trading an 8 and 21-period moving average crossover. Or MACD signal crossovers on a 1-minute chart. Or the rounded top or bottom or pattern, or triangles, or Keltner channel bounces off the center line in strong trends. Basically, you need an idea and a time frame (1-minute chart, daily chart, etc). 2. Define the Strategy Since you have your idea, you already know the basic concept of the strategy. If you don’t have a strategy yet, that’s where a bit of research comes in: finding something you like the idea of. There are loads of free strategy articles on this site, in the courses offered, and from other sources such as books, Youtube, etc. Whatever strategy you decide on, it needs to include these key components: A trade setup. The trade setup is what needs to happen for us to even consider a trade. It could be a specific chart pattern, moving average crossover, price action signal, etc. Where, when, and why we enter A trade trigger is a precise event that tells us to get into the trade. When the “trigger” event occurs, it turns a possible trade setup into an actual trade. Where, when, and why we exit profitable trades Where, when, and why we exit losing trades If and how we trail a stop loss. 3. Polish Your Strategy Keep practicing. Keep improving your strategy. Try that on different markets, under different circumstances. Make it better and better till it starts making money. Keep it simple and focused on one trading idea. Get better and better at that idea. Keep refining and building your confidence in the method. We gain confidence by seeing something work and being able to implement it. And that’s what all these steps are about. Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!👍
OANDA:BTCUSDEducation
by EliteTradingSignals
6
♦️BAD MINDSET IS YOUR ENEMY♦️ ♦️Forex trading is one of the most exciting and lucrative ventures that anyone can undertake. With the right mindset and tools, one can make a lot of money by trading currencies. However, the opposite is also true. A bad mindset can lead to disastrous consequences in forex trading. It is, therefore, important for traders to understand the effects of a bad mindset and avoid them at all costs. ♦️One of the most common effects of a bad mindset in forex trading is overthinking. When traders overthink, they become too analytical and too cautious. This can lead to missed opportunities and bad trading decisions. Overthinking can also lead to indecision and second-guessing, which can be harmful in a fast-paced and dynamic market like forex. ♦️Another effect of a bad mindset is emotional trading. Emotions like fear, greed, and impatience can lead to irrational trading decisions. For example, a trader may hold onto a losing position for too long in the hope that it will eventually turn profitable. This can lead to bigger losses and a further deterioration of the trader’s mindset. Similarly, greed can lead to taking on too much risk, which can also lead to disastrous consequences. ♦️A bad mindset can also cause traders to be too dependent on their trading strategies. While having a good trading strategy is important, it is equally important to be flexible and open-minded. A trader who is too reliant on their strategy may miss out on profitable opportunities that do not fit their style. This can lead to missed profits and frustration. ♦️Lastly, a bad mindset can lead to overconfidence. Traders who are overconfident may take on too much risk or ignore important market signals. This can lead to catastrophic losses and a severe blow to the trader’s ego. Overconfidence can also lead to ignoring basic risk management principles, which is a recipe for disaster. ♦️In conclusion, a bad mindset can have a significant impact on forex trading success. Traders who are too analytical, too emotional, too dependent, or too overconfident may make bad trading decisions that can result in losses. It is, therefore, important for traders to stay calm, flexible, and open-minded in their approach to forex trading. A winning mindset can help traders achieve success and make profitable trades in the dynamic and exciting forex market. Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️ Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
1
MASTER THE MARKET WITH CONFIDENCE & DISCIPLINEIf you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn't. In any case, we go on to die next trade. It's that simple, but it's certainly not easy. In fact, trading is probably the hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's not because it requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think you know, the less successful you'll be. Trading is hard because you have to operate in a state of not having to know, even though your analysis may turn out at times to be "perfectly" correct. To operate in a state of not having to know, you have to properly manage your expectations. To properly manage your expectations, you must realign your mental environment so that you believe without a shadow of a doubt in the five fundamental truths. Today, I am going to give you a trading exercise that will integrate these truths about the market at a functional level in your mental environment. In the process, I'll take you through the three stages of development of a trader. The first stage is the mechanical stage. In this stage, you: 1. Build the self-trust necessary to operate in an unlimited environment. 2. Learn to flawlessly execute a trading system. 3. Train your mind to think in probabilities (the five fundamental truths). 4. Create a strong, unshakeable belief in your consistency as a trader Once you have completed this first stage, you can then advance to the subjective stage of trading. In this stage, you use anything you have ever learned about the nature of market movement to do whatever it is you want to do. There's a lot of freedom in this stage, so you will have to learn how to monitor your susceptibility to make the kind of trading errors that are the result of any unresolved self-valuation issues I referred to in the last chapter. The third stage is the intuitive stage. Trading intuitively is the most advanced stage of development. It is the trading equivalent of earning a black belt in the martial arts. The difference is that you can't try to be intuitive, because intuition is spontaneous. It doesn't come from what we know at a rational level. The rational part of our mind seems to be inherently mistrustful of information received from a source that it doesn't understand. Sensing that something is about to happen is a form of knowing that is very different from anything we know rationally. I've worked with many traders who frequently had a very strong intuitive sense of what was going to happen next, only to be confronted with the rational part of themselves that consistently, argued for another course of action. Of course, if they had followed their intuition, they would have experienced a very satisfying outcome. Instead, what they ended up with was usually very unsatisfactory, especially when compared with what they otherwise perceived as possible. The only way I know of that you can try to be intuitive is to work at setting up a state of mind most conducive to receiving and acting on your intuitive impulses. The mechanical stage of trading is specifically designed to build the kind of trading skills (trust,confidence, and thinking in probabilities) that will virtually compel you to create consistent results. I define consistent results as a steadily rising equity curve with only minor draw downs that are the natural consequence of edges that didn't work. Other than finding a pattern that puts the odds of a winning trade in your favor, achieving a steadily rising equity curve is a function of systematically eliminating any susceptibility you may have to making the kind of fear, euphoric or self-valuation based trading errors I have described throughout this book. Eliminating the errors and expanding your sense of self-valuation will require the acquisition of skills that are all psychological in nature. The skills are psychological because each one, in its purest form, is simply a belief. Remember that the beliefs we operate out of will determine our state of mind and shape our experiences in ways that constantly reinforce what we already believe to be true. How truthful a belief is (relative to the environmental conditions) can be determined by how well it serves us; that is, the degree to which it helps us satisfy our objectives. If producing consistent results is your primary objective as a trader, then creating a belief (a conscious, energized concept that resists change and demands expression) that "I am a consistently successful trader" will act as a primaiy source of energy that will manage your perceptions, interpretations, expectations, and actions in ways that satisfy the belief and, consequently, the objective. Creating a dominant belief that "I am a consistently successful trader" requires adherence to several principles of consistent success. Some of these principles will undoubtedly be in direct conflict with some of the beliefs you've already acquired about trading. If this is the case, then what you have is a classic example of beliefs that are in direct conflict with desire. The energy dynamic here is no different from what it was for the boy who wanted to be like the other children who were not afraid to play with dogs. He desired to express himself in a way that he found, at least initially, virtually impossible. To satisfy his desire, he had to step into an active process of transformation. His technique was simple: He tried as hard as he could to stay focused on what he was trying to accomplish and, little by little, he de-activated the conflicting belief and strengthened the belief that was consistent with his desire. At some point, if that is your desire, then you will have to step into the process of transforming yourself into a consistent winner. When it comes to personal transformation, the most important ingredients are your willingness to change, the clarity of your intent, and the strength of your desire. Ultimately, for this process to work, you must choose consistency over eveiy other reason or justification you have for trading. If all of these ingredients are sufficiently present, then regardless of the internal obstacles you find yourself up against, what you desire will eventually prevail. The first step in the process of creating consistency is to start noticing what you're thinking, saying, and doing. Why? Because everything we think, say, or do as a trader contributes to and, therefore, reinforces some belief in our mental system. Because the process of becoming consistent is psychological in nature, it shouldn't come as a surprise that you'll have to start paying attention to your various psychological processes. The idea is eventually to learn to become an objective observer of your own thoughts, words, and deeds. Your first line of defense against committing a trading error is to catch yourself thinking about it. Of course, the last line of defense is to catch yourself in the act. If you don't commit yourself to becoming an observer to these processes, your realizations will always come after the experience, usually when you are in a state of deep regret and frustration.Observing yourself objectively implies doing it without judging about yourself. This might not be so easy for some of you to do considering the harsh, judgmental treatment you may have received from other people throughout your life. As a result, one quickly learns to associate any mistake with emotional pain. No one likes to be in a state of emotional pain, so we typically avoid acknowledging what we have learned to define as a mistake for as long as possible. Not confronting mistakes in our everyday lives usually doesn't have the same disastrous consequences it can have if we avoid confronting our mistakes as traders. For example, when I am working with floor traders, the analogy I use to illustrate how precarious a situation they are in is to ask them to imagine themselves walking across a bridge over the Grand Canyon. The width of the bridge is directly related to the number of contracts they trade. So, for example, for a one-contract trader the bridge is very wide, say 20 feet. A bridge 20 feet wide allows you a great deal of tolerance for error, so you don't have to be inordinately careful or focused on each step you take. Still, if you do happen to stumble and trip over the edge, the drop to the canyon floor is one mile. I don't know how many people would walk across a narrow bridge with no guardrails, where the ground is a mile down, but my guess is relatively few. Similarly, few people will take the kinds of risks associated with trading on the floor of the futures exchanges. Certainly a one-contract floor trader can do a great deal of damage to himself, not unlike falling off a mile-high bridge. But a one-contract trader also can give himself a wide tolerance for errors, miscalculations, or unusually violent market moves where he could find himself on the wrong side. 1. all our beliefs are in absolute harmony with our desires, and 2. all our beliefs are structured in such a way that they are completely consistent with what works from the environment's perspective. Obviously, if our beliefs are not consistent with what works from the environments perspective, the potential for making a mistake is high, if not inevitable. We won't be able to perceive the appropriate set of steps to our objective. Worse, we won't be able to perceive that what we want may not be available, or available in the quantity we desire or at the time when we want it. On the other hand, mistakes that are the result of beliefs that are in conflict with our objectives aren't always apparent or obvious. We know they will act as opposing forces, expressing their versions of the truth on our consciousness, and they can do that in many ways. The most difficult to detect is a distracting thought that causes a momentary lapse in focus or concentration. On the surface this may not sound significant. But, as in the analogy of the bridge over the canyon, when there's a lot at stake, even a slightly diminished capacity to stay focused can result in an error of disastrous proportions. This principle applies whether it's trading, sporting events, or computer programming. When our intent is clear and undiminished by any opposing energy, then our capacity to stay focused is greater, and the more likely it is that we will accomplish our objective. You have to be able to monitor yourself to some degree, and that will be difficult to do if you have the potential to experience emotional pain if and when you find yourself in the process of making an error. If this potential exists, you have two choices: 1. You can work on acquiring a new set of positively charged beliefs about what it means to make a mistake, along with de-activating any negatively charged beliefs that would argue otherwise or cause you to think less of yourself for making a mistake. 2. If you find this first choice undesirable, you can compensate for the potential to make errors by the way you set up your trading regime.
Education
by moonypto
Avoiding and Managing Margin Calls Trading on margin offers a variety of potential benefits, as well as some additional risks, including margin calls. This lesson explains margin calls, your obligations, and what you can do to help avoid them. A margin call is a demand from your brokerage firm to increase the amount of equity in your account. You can do this by depositing cash or marginable securities to your account or by liquidating existing positions to generate cash. To avoid margin calls, you need to understand fully what triggers a margin call, along with the steps you can take to minimize the risk of a margin sellout. Margin calls can be a stressful experience with serious financial implications. Your brokerage firm may sell securities you own—without notifying you and without regard to tax consequences—in order to increase the equity in your account. Therefore, consider these suggestions to minimize the odds of experiencing a margin call: Prepare for volatility: Leave a considerable cash cushion in your account that protects you from a sudden drop in the value of your loan collateral. Set a personal trigger point: Keep additional liquid resources at the ready in case you need to add money or securities to your margin account. Monitor your account daily: Consider setting up alerts to notify you when the value of your positions declines significantly. If you fail to understand the concept of margin or not knowing what to do when faced with a margin call from your broker, you will definitely experience the shock of your trading account blow up. What do you want to learn in the next post?
TVC:GOLDEducation
by UnitedSignals
5
⚠️ Risk Management Examples Showcase📍What Is the Risk/Reward Ratio? The risk/reward ratio marks the prospective reward an investor can earn for every dollar they risk on an investment. Many investors use risk/reward ratios to compare the expected returns of an investment with the amount of risk they must undertake to earn these returns. A lower risk/return ratio is often preferable as it signals less risk for an equivalent potential gain. 📍Consider the showcased example: An investment with a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 suggests that an investor is willing to risk $100, for the prospect of earning $300. Alternatively, a risk/reward ratio of 1:4 signals that an investor should expect to invest $100, for the prospect of earning $300 on their investment. Traders often use this approach to plan which trades to take, and the ratio is calculated by dividing the amount a trader stands to lose if the price of an asset moves in an unexpected direction (the risk) by the amount of profit the trader expects to have made when the position is closed (the reward). It is very important to calculate your R:R before entering a trade. Sometimes the trade might not be worth the amount you're risking vs the reward you can get. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
How Much Gold Does Your Portfolio Need?Economists make forecasts to make weathermen look good. Trying to forecast trends in complex systems is never easy. As with weather, financial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors which can make prediction akin to gambling. Time in the market beats timing the market so a far safer bet is building a diversified and informed portfolio. As mentioned in our previous paper , gold is a crucial addition to any well-diversified portfolio. Gold offers investors the benefits of resilience during crises, diversification, and low volatility while also being a good hedge against inflation. With crisis ever-present, from pandemics and geo-political conflict to financial instability and recession, uncertainty is on everyone’s lips, including central banks which bought a record 1,135 tonnes of gold last year. Central Banks have shown no signs of slowdown going into 2023, buying 74t in Jan and 52t in Feb, the strongest start to central bank buying since 2010. It is clear why, with rising global inflation due to 2 years of unprecedented QE. A decade of cheap money has its costs which are coming back to bite both consumers and central banks. This is now being played with collapsing banks and crumbling businesses. Though governments may term these exceptions, they’re the inevitable consequence of hiking rates too fast. And even though inflation has now started to cool, it is proving stubborn and the risk of recession looms. In crisis, institutions and individuals rush to gold. It’s no wonder then that gold prices spiked in March nearing an All-Time-High above USD 2,000/oz. Gold continues to trade above the key 2000 level even in April. Even now crises show no sign of slowing. Recession talks have become commonplace and phantoms of 2008 haunt with bank collapses. The world is increasingly moving towards reshoring and friendshoring, and de-dollarization is talked about more and more. It is almost inevitable that gold will break its all-time-high soon. But, buying gold is the easy part, in fact, our previous paper covered 6 Ways to Invest in Gold. Managing gold as part of a larger portfolio is more nuanced. Allocating the right amount, finding the right entry, and knowing when to cash out are all critical. This paper aims to address two questions – 1. What are the key drivers of gold prices in this decade 2. How should investors use gold in balancing portfolios to navigate turbulent times? What Propels Gold After Its All Time High? SVB and Credit Suisse pushed it to its brink. In fact, spot prices in India, Australia, and the UK sailed even above their All-Time-High. But what propels gold now? Financial Instability Was Credit Suisse the End? “The current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come.” - Jamie Dimon Unfortunately, Credit Suisse was likely just a symptom of the larger problem. 2-years of near-free money has inevitably led others to make risky bets which catch up to them during periods of QT. Additionally, Credit Suisse and SVB’s collapse were both set off by an unprecedentedly aggressive rate hiking cycle. Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they try to control runaway inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Higher rates for longer increase the risks of financial instability. Stubborn Inflation and Recession Risks Stubborn inflation? Wasn’t inflation on its way down after almost a year? Yes and No. Although yearly inflation has definitely cooled in most countries from their peak last year, inflation continues to tick up month-by-month above the targets that central banks have set for themselves. It is not expected to reach below their targets even before 2025 in many countries. This is because although energy and commodity prices have cooled with demand waning, core inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. Additionally, food and energy prices are still volatile. On the back of this, recession risks remain high. Recently released FOMC meeting minutes showed that officials expect a recession in the second half of the year. A recession in many countries now seems inevitable. Gold shines during recession and high-inflation environments. High Interest Rates Wasn’t the Fed done hiking? Currently, CME’s FedWatch tool shows a ~72% chance of another 25bps hike next month despite the surprisingly low US CPI print. Does another 25bps matter? What’s more important is that 25bps is the peak rate and most central banks are calling this summit a pause and not a pivot. As such, rates will likely remain high for the remainder of 2023. Gold tends to perform well during high interest rate and risk-off environments. Escalating Tensions, Friendshoring, and De-Dollarization Last but definitely not least are central banks and their gold-buying binge. Though some of this can be explained by the ultra-high inflation. It is undeniably also driven by rising political tensions. The conflict in Ukraine continues to rage and the US extend its trade war against China with the CHIPS act. This is driving many of the largest economies to reshore and friendshore key supply chains. This also means relying less on the USD which can be weaponized by the US. De-dollarization has been underway for the last 23 years as the share of USD holdings in foreign exchange reserves has declined from 71.5% to 58.3% over the past 23 years. Current conditions make it more likely that the trend will accelerate. Gold inevitably benefits from all of this as it is one of the only assets that no other central bank can print or freeze. All of these factors will likely drive gold in the coming decade. But instead of setting a price target, investors can be prudent and methodical by properly allocating it as part of a larger portfolio. Using Gold in a Portfolio From 2000 until now, the following portfolios would deliver: Since 2000, gold has been the best performing asset out of the 3 main components of a basic portfolio – Large Cap stocks (SPY), Treasury Bonds (10Y), and Gold. Gold price has risen 609% compared to SPY at +193%. Investing in 10-year maturity treasury bonds would have netted investors 110% during these 23 years. As such, larger portfolio allocation towards gold would have yielded investors far more during this period. However, this comes at the downside of higher volatility. Gold has had an average 12-month rolling volatility of 15.8% over the last 23 years, slightly higher than SPY’s 14%. Still, not all volatility is bad, especially if the returns outweigh the risk. Volatility to the upside can be beneficial to investors. In order to measure the returns from the portfolio after accounting for higher volatility-associated risk, investors can measure the risk-adjusted returns using the Sharpe Ratio and Sortino Ratio. Sharpe Ratio measures the amount of excess return generated by taking on additional volatility-related risk. The higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better the portfolio is performing relative to its risk. The figure below contains the Sharpe Ratio for each of the portfolios across the last 23 years. Since each year had a different risk-free rate due to changing monetary policy, the Sharpe ratios vary for every year and there are periods during which gold-heavy portfolios have highest Sharpe ratios and others where it has the lowest. This highlights gold's sensitivity to changes in monetary policy. Sortino Ratio also measures risk-adjusted returns like the Sharpe Ratio however it only considers the risk of downside volatility. In other words, it measures return for every unit of downside risk. The figure below contains the Sortino Ratio for each of the portfolios. A key difference between the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios can be seen in the readings for 2009. Sharpe Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio is the lowest in 2009 due to high volatility in gold prices. However, since this was volatility to the upside, the Sortino Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio in 2009 is the highest. In 2023, a Gold heavy portfolio has performed the best and has the highest Sharpe and Sortino Ratio due to gold's relative overperformance amid the banking crisis. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by mintdotfinance
4
❗️CONFIRMATION BIAS IS YOUR ENEMY❗️ 🏛As traders, we are constantly bombarded with information on the global economic landscape, market trends, and potential investments. With so much information at our fingertips, it is easy to fall victim to a cognitive bias known as confirmation bias. 🏛Confirmation bias, also known as selective perception, is the tendency for individuals to seek out and interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs or hypotheses. In the world of trading, confirmation bias can be particularly dangerous, as it can lead traders to make decisions based on incomplete or biased information. 🏛For example, imagine you hold a strong belief that apple stocks are going to rise in the coming months. You begin to search for information to support this belief - perhaps you read articles, listen to news broadcasts, and consult financial websites that all confirm your hypothesis. Meanwhile, you are dismissing any information that contradicts your belief, such as negative earnings reports, changes in the market, or negative press. 🏛The problem with this type of thinking is that it can lead traders to ignore crucial signs that could indicate a shift in the market. Confirmation bias can cloud our judgment and hinder our ability to make objective, data-driven decisions. 🏛To avoid confirmation bias, traders need to actively seek out and consider evidence that contradicts their established beliefs. By doing so, traders can obtain a more comprehensive view of the market and make informed decisions based on all available information. 🏛Furthermore, it is essential to rely on multiple sources of information, including information from trusted analysts, financial experts, and data-driven research. Traders must be able to evaluate information objectively and dispose of preconceived notions that may color their decision-making process. 🏛In conclusion, confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that can significantly impair traders' abilities to make sound decisions in the market. Traders must be cognizant of this bias and actively work to identify and address it by seeking out multiple sources of information, analyzing data objectively, and challenging their preconceived beliefs. Only by doing so can traders ensure that their decisions are based on informed and rational conclusions, rather than biased opinions or incomplete information. Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️ Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
6
The Process of Creating StrategyHello traders, In this post i am going to show that how we can create and develop the trading strategy that works. Now the first step we need to do is just search and find the any trading method that suitable for us for example that would be like elliott wave, ict concept, VSA, just using indicators and maybe you can also create your own method and backtest it. when you learned the method now its time to create your trading rules every strategy has own different rules like what is your risk to reward ratio? what is your trade management plan? either you manage your trade or just take the trade and come back after its hit TP or SL, how much is your daily limit means how much trades you will be taking in a day or in a week if you want to become a swing trader depends on you, what is your risk per trade? can you will be cutting the risk to half or just use fixed risk after lose trade? what is your daily limit of losing? can you hold trade overnight or over weekend? what is your trading timeframe? what is your trading sessions? etc... These all kind of rules you will be require to create for yourself they might be different rules depends on your strategy method now we learned the method and created the rule move forward to the next step is open the live demo trading account and trade with your strategy and apply the rules don't break the rules that you created trade at least 30 days and journal your data your taking trades after 30 days check the journal you will see your data for example in your rules you set 1/2 risk reward ratio so you need to have around 40% winning ratio check the journal check the results did you have a 40% winning ratio if the answer is yes then good to go i am sure that you know what to do next but if you failed and your winning ratio is below 40% now analyze your journal data the trades you taken you will see some of bad trades that you don't wanted to trade again just avoid those trades next time and try again the process for the next 30 days. repeat the process one day you will be profitable and consistent but if you not then try again again learn from your mistakes and don't do that mistakes again. When yo have been profitable this is the time you wanna enter in the market open the real live trading account and start trading with your strategy and follow the rules that you created for yourself run the process and always remember trading is not quick rish scheme you need to have a lot of patience, trading is a long run game like marathon race and its required patience. some of my advice is don't try to break the rules, don't depend on one trade, some times market will give you some results that you don't want from it but be patient and be consistent with your strategy with your rules, you will be facing drawdowns but that is the learning process you will learn a lot from the drawdown so with the time you will be better consistent and be profitable just don't leave the process too soon and believe in yourself and try again again and again, trading is a very beautiful and also the easiest thing to live life but firstly in the starting it required from us to pass the test. trading is a very easiest thing but also a very hardest thing. i hope you find this post useful, i wish you good luck and good trading. If you like the post, boost my work with like comments and share thanks!
Education
by TheLoserMan
1
The Two Types of Risk Management PlanHello traders, 1) Fixed Risk Calculates position size for next trade as a percentage of account depend on how much risk you willing to take every time every trade you taking you need to use fixed risk for every trade like for example 1% risk per trade so in this type of risk management plan we should require 100 losing trades in a row to blowing out our account a lot of people just using this simple method and this is very easy and understandable. 2) Cutting the Risk : In this method cutting the risk we just normally trade 1% risk per trade but if we lose that trade so we just cut the risk to half for example if i trade with 1% risk and i lose so now the next second trade which i am taking i will be using 0.5% risk in that trade if i lose then i will be just keep using the same risk 0.5% some traders are are keep reducing the risk size like they come all the way to to 0.25% maybe they work for it but in our scenario if we keep losing we will be not reducing more than 0.5% risk per trade and when win comes then after our winning trade we will be back to the normal risk which is 1% risk per trade and keep trading with 1% risk per trade so short summary is if we lose cut the risk to half if we when if we win back to the normal risk if we win again stay with same normal risk but if lose then reduce the risk to half. The reason behind that is in the fixed risk you have 100 traders to blowing out your account means 100 chances but in cutting the risk now we just calculate if we lose 100 trades in a row like fixed risk we would not blow out our account,, let's say we take our first trade and we lose now we are in -1% then another trade we will be taking with 0.5% per trade risk so here is 0.5% × 100 trades = 50 means if we continue to lose in a row after 100 trades we will be facing -50 draw down, so cutting the risk to half after lose trade is the safest method who wants to play safe and more chances to survive in the market. I wish you good luck and good trading. If you like the post, support my work with like comments and share thanks!
Education
by TheLoserMan
Peter Lynch's Updated Investment StrategiesPeter Lynch's Investment Model: Adapting the Wall Street Legend's Strategies to Today's Markets As someone who has been inspired by Peter Lynch, another of my investing mentors, I am excited to explore how his strategies can be adapted to the ever-evolving financial landscape. In this article, my goal is to share valuable insights that fellow investors can apply in today's dynamic markets while still drawing from the wisdom of this Wall Street legend. This is a follow-up to the article I wrote about Warren Buffett's investment model, as both figures have greatly influenced my investment approach. Peter Lynch has long been regarded as one of the most successful mutual fund managers in history. His investment strategy, which focuses on growth and finding "tenbaggers" (stocks that can increase in value tenfold), has proven to be highly effective. However, as the financial landscape evolves, it's essential to examine the continuing effectiveness of his approach in today's markets. This article will explore key aspects of Lynch's investment model and assess which elements remain relevant and which may have lost their edge. Section 1: The Core Principles of Peter Lynch's Investment Model 1.1 Growth investing and finding "tenbaggers" a. Earnings growth: Lynch focuses on companies with strong earnings growth potential, as this is often the primary driver of stock price appreciation. b. Market-beating returns: By identifying "tenbaggers," investors can achieve market-beating returns and significantly grow their portfolios. c. Industry trends: Lynch pays close attention to emerging trends and industries, which can provide opportunities to invest in high-growth companies. 1.2 Investing in what you know a. Understanding the business: Lynch emphasizes the importance of investing in companies whose business models are easy to understand, increasing the likelihood of making informed decisions. b. Personal experience: Investors can leverage their personal experience and knowledge to identify promising investment opportunities. c. Thorough research: Lynch advocates for thorough research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. 1.3 Valuation and price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) a. Relative valuation: Lynch often uses the P/E ratio to compare the valuation of different companies within the same industry. b. Earnings growth and P/E ratio: Lynch's strategy focuses on finding companies with high earnings growth rates trading at reasonable P/E ratios. c. PEG ratio: The price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is a key metric in Lynch's approach, which compares a company's P/E ratio to its expected earnings growth rate. Section 2: The Changing Landscape: Points of Lynch's Strategy Losing Effectiveness 2.1 Overemphasis on P/E ratio a. Limitations of P/E ratio: The P/E ratio may not accurately capture the value of companies with significant intangible assets or those experiencing temporary earnings fluctuations. b. Alternative valuation methods: Investors should consider incorporating alternative valuation methods, such as discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, to better assess a company's true worth. 2.2 Rigid focus on growth investing a. Cyclical nature of growth stocks: Growth stocks can be more susceptible to market fluctuations and economic downturns, making them potentially riskier investments. b. Value investing opportunities: A rigid focus on growth investing may cause investors to overlook undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals. c. Portfolio diversification: Balancing growth and value stocks can help manage risk and enhance overall portfolio performance. Section 3: Adapting Peter Lynch's Investment Model to Today's Markets 3.1 Incorporating technology and disruptive innovation a. Embracing technology: Investors should seek out companies with innovative technologies that have the potential to become industry leaders in their respective sectors. b. Identifying disruptive companies: The rapid pace of technological innovation has led to disruptive companies reshaping entire industries, with early investors often reaping substantial rewards. c. Balancing growth potential and risk: Investing in technology and disruptive companies may carry higher risks, but also the potential for greater rewards, which can be balanced through careful portfolio diversification. 3.2 Expanding the investment horizon a. Global opportunities: By investing in companies from diverse regions, investors can capitalize on global growth opportunities and reduce dependence on specific markets. b. Mitigating regional risks: Diversification across geographies helps to mitigate risks associated with regional economic downturns or political instability. c. Tapping into emerging markets: Investors can seek opportunities in emerging markets with strong growth potential and favorable demographic trends, further diversifying their portfolios. 3.3 Incorporating ESG factors and long-term sustainability a. Aligning with growth investing: Companies with strong ESG performance are more likely to be sustainable in the long term, aligning well with Lynch's growth investing approach. b. Improved risk management: Incorporating ESG factors into the investment decision-making process can help identify potential risks and opportunities that may not be apparent through traditional financial analysis. c. Attracting investor interest: As ESG investing gains traction, companies with strong ESG performance may attract increased investor interest, potentially driving higher valuations and returns. Peter Lynch's investment model has stood the test of time, but in today's dynamic and rapidly changing financial landscape, it's crucial to adapt and evolve his principles. By embracing new technologies, diversifying investments, incorporating ESG factors, and expanding the investment toolkit to include passive investing and quantitative analysis, investors can continue to benefit from the wisdom of this Wall Street legend and successfully navigate the complexities of modern markets. The spirit of Peter Lynch's investing philosophy remains relevant, but adapting and tailoring it to the current environment can help ensure continued success in today's investment world.
CBOE:FMAGEducation
by Julien_Eche
One Trade Does Not Define Your Trading Performance... Hey traders, 👨🏻‍💻I am trading forex for more than 8 years. During the last 5 years, I am actively posting my analysis & trades on TradingView. Growing my audience, it was very peculiar for me to contemplate the reaction of my followers to my trading performance. (by the way, we must say thanks to tradingview where the posting system does not allow to delete the posted trades so that each and every author is easily backtestable). 👩‍👩‍👧‍👧👨‍👨‍👧‍👧Those who follow me at least a half a year know that occasionally I have winning streaks when 9 out of 10 of my forecasts play out nicely. Sometimes, however, I face the drawdowns and catch a sequence of losing trades. And sometimes the performance is mixed with the probabilities being on my side slightly. 🥇While the reaction to winning streaks is quite predictable: I am praised by the members and get nice tips. The reaction to losing streaks is worth discussing in detail. It turned out that quite a huge portion of a trading community has a completely wrong understanding of a trading nature. 🤬The single loss is considered by them to be a failure, a mistake. Facing the sequence of losses, they quickly become negatively biased to the person that they have just recently praised. With the continuation of a drawdown, they blame the analyst and launch a barrage of criticism towards him. 🔍Then they are in a search again. They are looking for a trader that will be constantly right. Catching the new one during a winning streak, the cycle repeats. At some moment such people become disappointed in trading and drop this business... ❗️Losses, losing streaks and negative days/weeks/months are inevitable. If you want to become a full-time trader, you must be prepared for the fact that trading won't give you a stable income. Your equity curve will be in constant fluctuation. Your goal in this game is simply to lose less than you make. You must become disciplined enough to keep following the rules of your trading strategy no matter what. You must learn to be consistent in your actions. You should learn to perceive losing trades not as a failure but simply as the moment when the market takes its share. Feeding you, giving you the opportunity to make money out of thin air, the market definitely has a right to claim its dividends from you. ⭐️Change your mindset, learn to lose and the magic thing will happen. Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
Education
by VasilyTrader
13
Buffett's Strategy for Modern MarketsWarren Buffett's Investment Model: Adapting the Oracle of Omaha's Strategies to Today's Markets As someone deeply inspired by Warren Buffett's investment principles, I've always been fascinated by how his strategies can be adapted to the ever-changing financial landscape. In exploring this subject, my goal is to share valuable insights that fellow investors can apply in today's dynamic markets while still drawing from the wisdom of the Oracle of Omaha. Warren Buffett has long been hailed as one of the greatest investors of all time. His value-based investment strategy has proven to be wildly successful for decades. However, as the financial landscape evolves, it's essential to examine the continuing effectiveness of his approach in today's markets. This article will explore key aspects of Buffett's investment model and assess which elements remain relevant and which may have lost their edge. Section 1: The Core Principles of Warren Buffett's Investment Model 1.1 Long-term value investing a. Patience and discipline: Buffett's approach requires investors to patiently wait for opportunities to buy undervalued stocks and hold them for the long term, often ignoring short-term market fluctuations. b. Margin of safety: Buffett emphasizes purchasing stocks at a discount to their intrinsic value, providing a margin of safety and reducing the downside risk. c. Dividends and reinvestment: Buffett's model often focuses on companies that pay stable and growing dividends, which can be reinvested to compound returns over time. 1.2 Moats and competitive advantage a. Pricing power: Companies with strong pricing power can increase prices without significantly affecting demand, providing a competitive edge. b. Brand recognition: A strong brand can create customer loyalty, making it difficult for competitors to gain market share. c. Cost advantage: Companies with a cost advantage can offer products or services at lower prices or enjoy higher profit margins, increasing their competitiveness. 1.3 Focus on quality businesses a. Financial health: Buffett seeks companies with low debt levels and strong cash flow generation, indicating financial stability. b. Management quality: A capable management team is crucial to a company's success, with Buffett prioritizing companies led by experienced and shareholder-oriented leaders. c. Consistent earnings growth: Companies with a history of consistent earnings growth are more likely to deliver strong returns over time. Section 2: The Changing Landscape: Points of Buffett's Strategy Losing Effectiveness 2.1 Ignoring technology and growth stocks a. Missed opportunities: Buffett's aversion to technology stocks has caused him to miss out on significant investment opportunities in companies like Amazon, Google, and Apple. b. The rise of disruptive technologies: The rapid pace of technological innovation has led to disruptive companies reshaping entire industries, with early investors in these companies often reaping substantial rewards. c. The importance of adaptability: Investors should be willing to adapt their strategies to recognize the changing landscape and embrace new investment opportunities. 2.2 Relying on financial statement analysis a. The limitations of traditional metrics: Metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios may not accurately capture the value of companies with significant intangible assets. b. The role of intangibles: Intangible assets, such as intellectual property, customer relationships, and brand value, are increasingly important drivers of business success. c. Alternative valuation methods: Investors should consider incorporating alternative valuation methods, such as discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and relative valuation techniques, to better assess a company's true worth. Section 3: Adapting Buffett's Investment Model to Today's Markets 3.1 Embracing technological innovation a. Identifying future industry leaders: Investors should seek out companies with innovative technologies that have the potential to become industry leaders in their respective sectors. b. Focusing on long-term growth potential: While some technology and growth stocks may appear overvalued by traditional metrics, their long-term growth potential may justify a higher valuation. c. Balancing risk and reward: Investing in technology and growth stocks may carry higher risks, but also the potential for greater rewards, which can be balanced through careful portfolio diversification. 3.2 Diversification across industries and geographies a. Expanding investment horizons: By investing in a variety of industries and regions, investors can capitalize on global growth opportunities and reduce dependence on specific sectors or markets. b. Mitigating regional risks: Diversification across geographies helps to mitigate risks associated with regional economic downturns or political instability. c. Harnessing the potential of emerging markets: Investors can seek opportunities in emerging markets with strong growth potential and favorable demographic trends, further diversifying their portfolios. 3.3 Incorporating ESG factors a. Long-term sustainability: Companies with strong ESG performance are more likely to be sustainable in the long term, aligning with Buffett's long-term value investing approach. b. Improved risk management: Incorporating ESG factors into the investment decision-making process can help identify potential risks and opportunities that may not be apparent through traditional financial analysis. c. Growing investor demand: As ESG investing gains traction, companies with strong ESG performance may attract increased investor interest, potentially driving higher valuations and returns. Warren Buffett's investment model has been highly successful for decades, but it's essential to adapt his principles to the ever-changing financial landscape. By embracing technological innovation, diversifying investments, and incorporating ESG factors, investors can continue to benefit from the wisdom of the Oracle of Omaha while navigating the complexities of today's markets.
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by Julien_Eche
17
How can AI help to improve algorithmic trading strategies?AI is transforming the field of algorithmic trading, which involves using computer programs to execute trades based on predefined rules and strategies. AI can help to improve algorithmic trading performance and efficiency by providing advanced data analysis, predictive modeling, and optimization techniques. In this article, we will explore some of the ways that AI can enhance algorithmic trading and some of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. One of the main advantages of AI in algorithmic trading is its ability to process and interpret large and complex data sets in real-time. AI algorithms can leverage various sources of data, such as market prices, volumes, news, social media, sentiment, and historical trends, to identify patterns, correlations, and anomalies that may indicate trading opportunities. AI can also use natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision to extract relevant information from unstructured data, such as text, images, and videos. Another benefit of AI in algorithmic trading is its ability to learn from data and adapt to changing market conditions. AI algorithms can use machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to train on historical and live data and generate predictive models that can forecast future market movements and outcomes. AI can also use reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to learn from its own actions and feedback and optimize its trading strategies over time. A further aspect of AI in algorithmic trading is its ability to optimize trading performance and reduce costs. AI algorithms can use mathematical optimization methods to find the optimal combination of parameters, such as entry and exit points, order size, timing, and risk management, that can maximize profits and minimize losses. AI can also use high-frequency trading (HFT) techniques to execute trades at high speeds and volumes, taking advantage of small price fluctuations and arbitrage opportunities. AI can also help to reduce transaction costs, such as commissions, fees, slippage, and market impact, by using smart order routing and execution algorithms that can find the best available prices and liquidity across multiple venues. However, AI in algorithmic trading also faces some challenges and limitations that need to be addressed. One of the main challenges is the quality and reliability of data. AI algorithms depend on accurate and timely data to perform well, but data sources may be incomplete, inconsistent, noisy, or outdated. Data may also be subject to manipulation or hacking by malicious actors who may try to influence or deceive the algorithms. Therefore, AI algorithms need to have robust data validation, verification, and security mechanisms to ensure data integrity and trustworthiness. Another challenge is the complexity and interpretability of AI algorithms. AI algorithms may use sophisticated and nonlinear models that are difficult to understand and explain. This may pose a problem for traders who need to monitor and control their algorithms and regulators who need to oversee and audit their activities. Moreover, AI algorithms may exhibit unexpected or undesirable behaviors or outcomes that may harm the traders or the market stability. Therefore, AI algorithms need to have transparent and explainable methods that can provide clear and meaningful insights into their logic and decisions. However, there are also ethical and social implications of AI in algorithmic trading. AI algorithms may have an impact on the market efficiency, fairness, and inclusiveness. For example, AI algorithms may create or amplify market inefficiencies or distortions by exploiting information asymmetries or creating feedback loops or cascades. AI algorithms may also create or exacerbate market inequalities or exclusions by favoring certain groups or individuals over others or by creating barriers to entry or access for new or small players. Therefore, AI algorithms need to have ethical and social principles that can ensure their alignment with human values and interests. In conclusion, AI is a powerful tool that can help to improve algorithmic trading strategies and performance by providing advanced data analysis, predictive modeling, and optimization techniques. However, AI also poses some challenges and risks that need to be addressed by ensuring data quality and reliability, algorithm complexity and interpretability, and ethical and social implications. By doing so, AI can create a more efficient, effective, and equitable algorithmic trading environment for all stakeholders.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
Patience is a Virtue in Trading! Learn Why: In trading, timing is everything. Winning traders are patient. They know how to control their impulses so as to act decisively at the opportune moment. Rather than acting on a whim, they carefully devise a detailed trading plan, in which precise entry and exit strategies are specified, and strictly follow it. Discipline is the key to successful trading. Although discipline can be learned, some people are more disciplined and self-controlled than others. It is useful to determine where you stand on this trait, and if you’re impulsive, developing psychological strategies to compensate for it will allow you to trade profitably. Research studies have demonstrated that some people have difficulty delaying gratification. In the jargon of behavioural economics, they “discount delayed rewards.” That is, they would rather take a small profit now, instead of waiting for a larger profit later. Depending on your style of trading, discounting a delayed reward can be a problem. For a long-term investor, for example, it is necessary to buy-and-hold long enough for one’s long term strategy to play out. There may be minor fluctuations during the waiting period, but seasoned investors have learned to wait it out. Most novice investors, in contrast, impulsively sell as the masses panic and buy the stock back at a top, which usually results in a losing trade. If you are a long-term investor, it is necessary to be able to control your impulse to make a profit and allow the price to rise over time. Even shorter-term traders, such as a swing trader, must fight the urge to sell early. Although trades are held for much shorter windows, a swing trader must know how to wait patiently for the optimal time to sell. Selling a winner too early is not going to allow one’s account balance to increase exponentially at an ideal rate. The scalper is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Most scalpers feel an overpowering need to take a quick profit as soon as they can get it. To some extent, it may be wise for a person who has trouble patiently waiting for the price of an investment instrument to increase to become a scalper. The conventional wisdom these days, however, is that decimalization has made scalping less viable. It is useful to take other steps to work around one’s inclination to sell prematurely. For example, one can use the automatic settings on one’s trading platform to specify an exit strategy. It has often been said that looking at one’s screen during the trading day is like sitting in front of a slot machine and trying to resist gambling. It’s hard. Just as the one-armed bandit tempts recreational gamblers, charts and indicators on a computer screen tempt seasoned and novice traders alike to make hasty trading decisions. It may be useful to refrain from constantly looking at how a particular stock or commodity is doing while you’re waiting for your trading plan to play out. If you have to walk away, while having the automatic settings on to manage risk, then, by all means, turn off your screens or walk away. It is also useful to objectify the trade. The more you can learn to view the trade objectively, as if you just don’t care what happens, the more you’ll be able to resist the temptation to close out a trade prematurely. A cold, rational approach to trading, along with a detailed trading plan, is the best defence against impulsive trading decisions. Patience is a virtue when attempting to trade profitably. It is useful to remember that humans have a strong, natural tendency to avoid risk and loss at all costs. This tendency often protects us from harm, but there are times when it can compel us to act impulsively. We are naturally inclined to avoid losses at all costs, even if it means selling a potentially winning trade before it reaches fruition. Unless one can let winners increase in price sufficiently, profits won’t balance out losses. The ability to control one’s impulses and wait for larger, delayed rewards is vital for long-term survival. It’s worth developing this ability. Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
9
Why do most traders end up losing moneyThis question is quite scary, but if you are a novice and see this question, congratulations, you are on the right path of trading. The most important lesson to learn before entering the financial markets is risk expectation. You can ask yourself, how much money do you want to make from trading? Is your goal asset appreciation, or a small fortune? If a trade loses money, will it affect your own life? Is your own character able to stop losses in time, or do you have no self-control? After asking these questions, we decide whether to enter the financial market. So why do the vast majority of traders lose money? 1. Because of the particularity of the financial market. I believe that many friends have heard of the 28 rule. For example, in the distribution of wealth in our society, 20% of people control 80% of social wealth; 20% of people will persist in encountering difficulties, and 80% of people will give up when encountering difficulties. The rule of 28 is ubiquitous in life, and it also determines what kind of people will succeed and what kind of people will fail. As for the financial market, it is crueler than real life, because there are no rules in this market, only human nature, so the financial market even surpasses the rule of 28, and less than 10% of people may make profits. In the face of money, most people want to make a big fortune with a small amount, and want to turn around by trading, so those who have stable personalities, strong self-control, low income expectations, and money in their hands are silently harvesting these people who are eager for quick success. Some people may say that the world is inherently unfair, and those who hold funds can only survive because of the capital. Actually no. We Xiaosan hold small funds, and we can achieve low return expectations, or we can do it slowly, but how many people are just anxious to make money? Just want to make a big difference with a small one? Just don’t regard money as money, and think it’s a big deal to take a gamble, and if it’s gone, it’s gone? So it has nothing to do with the amount of capital, but has something to do with people. In financial markets, human nature is the rule. 2. Too many people are dominated by human nature. As I said before, there are no rules in the financial market, and human nature is the rule. Trading is a very anti-human thing. Human nature is greedy for comfort, averse to risk, afraid of losing, feeling that one's level is higher than others, hating giving and learning, impatient, etc., which will be infinitely magnified in trading. There is a saying in the trading industry that trading can be profitable, mentality accounts for 70%, and technology accounts for 30%. In actual combat, it seems that it is not difficult for traders to see the market correctly, but it is very difficult to complete this wave of market and make profits. Why? I give two examples. For example, the problem of stop loss in trading. Seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages is a characteristic of human nature, unwillingness to lose, unwilling to accept losses, this is human self-protection awareness. Stopping losses in the wrong direction means losing our real money, who can bear it? So in actual combat, many people rationally know that the direction is wrong, but they just don't stop losses, and even increase their positions against the trend, floating orders, allowing the stop loss to become bigger and bigger, and finally lead to serious losses. Another example is the profitable position in the transaction. The market trend always fluctuates upwards, or fluctuates downwards, and profit taking in positions is often encountered. Once profits are withdrawn, we will have a sense of insecurity in our hearts, worrying about the reversal of the market and losing profits. This insecurity is also due to human nature. Even if we rationally know that the profit target has not yet been reached, we should continue to hold positions, but the little emotion of longing for peace of mind has been tormenting us, and in the end we couldn't help but close the position, and made a lot of less money. We comfort ourselves that it is all right, at least there is no loss. But in fact, less earning = loss, because the amount you lose next time will be greater than the money you earn. In the long run, your overall loss will be. There are many such examples, such as betting on the market, heavy trading, unwillingness to admit defeat, stop loss leading to liquidation, etc., are all caused by the aversion to loss in human nature and the fear of failure. In fact, if we look at the trading market 100 years ago, it is basically the same as the current human nature problem. The weakness of human nature is very strong, and it is also the main reason why traders lose money. So at the beginning, I asked everyone to ask themselves those questions, just to let everyone understand their own personality, their current situation, and their human nature, so as to help you win certain opportunities in the trading market. Trading is like a free game. It seems that the threshold is low and no money is required, but in fact some hidden costs are contained in it, and the human nature is clearly played for you. Therefore, before making a transaction, you must have an existing risk expectation, and then think about making money.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by CheetahAttack
Fibonacci Trick for measuring Risk to Reward RatioIf you don't use your fibb tool much, (save your settings as a template first if you do) or for just a quick check to see if there is enough reward for the risk in the trade, you can set up your Fibonacci in increments of 1 (2.5 is 1:1.5) Do this as far as you like. You can extend lines left or right to check if the R Ratio you are looking for will fit this market structure, or if you should wait for a better set up. I happen to see this in a YouTube video, and thought it was very interesting and more than useful... The settings are as follows : 0 - loss/stop loss price 1 - 1 unit of risk (100 percent) 2 - 1 unit of risk plus 1 unit of reward (1:1) 2.5 - 1 unit of risk, 1.5 unit reward (1:1.5) 3 - 1 unit of risk, 2 unit reward (1:2) ..... and so on. Then just save it as a template for quick set up later -- Example of use 6 (600 percent) is 1:5. Just subtract 1 for the risk and the remaining is the reward ratio. Each 100 percent mark is a single unit of risk (-1) In MT4 its much better to see it directly, as you can label the levels how you wish (using the same formula)
Education
by ForexStoryteller
1
Understanding Anchoring Bias in Trading Anchoring is a heuristic in behavioral finance that describes the subconscious use of irrelevant information, such as the purchase price of a security, as a fixed reference point (or anchor) for making subsequent decisions about that security. Thus, people are more likely to estimate the value of the same item higher if the suggested sticker price is $100 than if it is $50. Anchoring is a cognitive bias in which the use of an arbitrary benchmark such as a purchase price or sticker price carries a disproportionately high weight in one's decision-making process. The concept is part of the field of behavioral finance, which studies how emotions and other extraneous factors influence economic choices. An anchoring bias can cause a financial market participant, such as a financial analyst or investor, to make an incorrect financial decision, such as buying an overvalued investment or selling an undervalued investment. Anchoring bias can be present anywhere in the financial decision-making process, from key forecast inputs, such as sales volumes and commodity prices, to final output like cash flow and security prices. Historical values, such as acquisition prices or high-water marks, are common anchors. This holds for values necessary to accomplish a certain objective, such as achieving a target return or generating a particular amount of net proceeds. These values are unrelated to market pricing and cause market participants to reject rational decisions. Beware of your mental fallacies. They are your main enemy in trading. Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️ Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
6
Producing Recurring Income in GoldGold has long been a darling of investors. Its holders - whether households or central banks - seek refuge in the yellow metal in times of crisis. Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable portfolio diversification, exhibits lower volatility relative to equities & bonds, and serves as an inflation hedge. But it has a big downside. As mentioned in our previous paper , gold pays zero yield. Shares pay-out dividends. Debt earns interest. Property delivers rents. But gold? Zero! There are multiple methods of generating yield from gold. This paper illustrates a risk-limited, easy to execute, and capital-efficient means of producing yield by investing in gold. Innovation in financial markets enables even non-yielding assets such as gold to produce regular income. A class of derivatives known as call options can be cleverly deployed to generate yield. Call options are derivative contracts that allow its buyers to profit from rising prices of the underlying asset. When prices rise, call option holders earn outsized gains relative to the options price ("call premiums"). Unlimited upside with limited downside describes the call option holder's strategy in summary. What has that got to do with generating yield in gold? Everything. For every buyer, the market requires a seller. Options sellers collect call premiums which comprise the income. Many widely believe that options are weapons of mass wealth destruction. Not entirely wrong. Used poorly, options devastate investors' portfolios. Deployed wisely, options help astute traders to better manage their portfolio, generate superior yield on their assets, and construct convexity (disproportionate gain for fixed amount of pain) into their investing strategies. Fortunately, a covered call is a strategy which uses options prudently. As the strategy involves holding the asset whose prices are expected to rally, the risk of the strategy is hedged with risks well contained. Gold Covered Call involves two trades. A long position in gold and a short position in out-of-the-money gold calls. In bullish markets, investors gain from call premiums plus also benefit from increase in prices. Covered calls not only enable investors to generate income but also reduce downside risk if asset prices tank. A covered call trade in gold can be implemented in a margin efficient manner using CME’s Gold Futures and Options. A long position in CME’s Gold futures (“Gold Futures”) gives exposure to 100 troy ounces (oz) of gold per lot. Combining long futures with a short call option on Gold Futures at out-of-the-money strike allows investors to harvest premiums. Selecting an optimal strike and an expiry date is critical to successfully execute covered call strategies. First, Strike. It is the price level at which the call option transforms to be in-the-money. Strikes which have daily volumes & meaningful open interest enable options to be traded with ease and provide narrow spreads. Strikes that make options expire worthless benefits the covered call options holder. Second, Expiry. Options have expiry. Options sellers thrive on shrinking expiry for generating yields. Investors selling call options optimise their risk-return profile by selecting an expiry with higher implied volatility (IV). Option prices are directly proportional to IV. Higher IV leads to larger premiums enriching returns. SIMULATION AND PAY-OFF MATRIX This paper illustrates a covered call strategy in gold using the CME Gold derivatives market: 1. Long one lot of Gold Futures expiring in Oct (GCV3) at $ 2,050/oz. 2. Sell one lot of Call Options on Gold Futures expiring in Oct at a strike of $ 2,275 collecting a premium of $ 40/oz. The pay-off matrix simulates the trade P&L under four likely outcomes among many possibilities at trade expiry: a. Gold rises past the strike ($ 2,400): Options get assigned to the buyer. Covered call option holder incurs loss of $ 85/oz (=$ 2,400 - $ 2,275 - $ 40) from short call offset by profits from long futures ($ 350 - $ 85) = $ 265/oz. Each GC contract has 100 troy ounces of gold, so total profit will be $ 265 x 100 = $ 26,500. b. Gold rises but remains below the strike ($ 2,250): Options expire worthless to the buyer. Seller retains premium in full. Covered call option holder profits from long futures + call options premium ($ 200 + $ 40) = $ 240/oz. Each GC contract has 100 troy ounces of gold, so total profit will be $ 240 x 100 = $ 24,000. c. Gold price falls marginally below the entry price ($ 2,030): Options expire worthless to the buyer. Covered call option holder loses money from long futures and thankfully the loss is offset by call options premium (-$ 20 + $ 40) = $ 20/oz. Each GC contract has 100 troy ounces of gold, so total profit will be $ 20 x 100 = $ 2,000. d. Gold price falls ~5% below the entry price ($ 1,950): Options expire worthless to the buyer. Covered call option holder loses money from long futures and the loss is partially offset by call options premium (-$ 100 + $ 40) = -$ 60/oz . Each GC contract has 100 troy ounces of gold, so total loss will be -$ 60 x 100 = -$ 6,000. The chart below describes the pay-off from Gold Futures (Long position), Gold Call Options (short position) and Covered Call (combination of the two trade legs). MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GCV2023Education
by mintdotfinance
3
AI and Algorithmic Trading #1AI and Algorithmic Trading #1 - Introduction to AI and Algorithmic Trading In recent years, algorithmic trading has become increasingly popular in the world of finance. Algorithmic trading refers to the use of computer programs to automate the trading process, including the analysis of market data, the identification of trading opportunities, and the execution of trades. As algorithmic trading has become more prevalent, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a key tool for traders looking to gain a competitive advantage in the market. In this article, we'll provide an overview of AI and its role in algorithmic trading. What is Algorithmic Trading? Before we dive into AI, let's first define algorithmic trading. Algorithmic trading, also known as automated trading or algo trading, is a method of executing trades using computer programs. These programs can analyze market data, identify trading opportunities, and execute trades at a speed and efficiency that is impossible for human traders. Algorithmic trading can be used for a variety of trading strategies, including high-frequency trading, statistical arbitrage, and trend following. What is AI? Artificial intelligence refers to the ability of machines to perform tasks that would typically require human intelligence. AI can be divided into several categories, including machine learning, natural language processing, and pattern recognition. Machine learning is a type of AI that involves training algorithms to learn from data, enabling them to make predictions or decisions without being explicitly programmed. Natural language processing involves teaching machines to understand and interpret human language, while pattern recognition involves identifying patterns in data. Benefits of AI in Algorithmic Trading One of the key benefits of using AI in algorithmic trading is the ability to make faster and more accurate trading decisions. AI algorithms can analyze vast amounts of market data in real-time, identifying trading opportunities and executing trades with a speed and efficiency that is impossible for human traders. Additionally, AI algorithms can learn from their mistakes and adjust their strategies accordingly, leading to more consistent and profitable trading outcomes. Challenges of AI in Algorithmic Trading While the benefits of AI in algorithmic trading are significant, there are also potential challenges associated with this technology. One of the main challenges is the need for high-quality data. AI algorithms rely on large datasets to learn from, and if the data is incomplete or inaccurate, the algorithms may produce flawed results. Additionally, AI algorithms may be subject to biases, both in the data they are trained on and in their decision-making processes. Finally, there are ethical considerations around the use of AI in trading, particularly around the potential for AI to exacerbate market volatility or contribute to systemic risk. The Future of AI in Algorithmic Trading Despite these challenges, it is clear that AI will continue to play an important role in algorithmic trading in the years to come. As the technology continues to develop, we can expect to see even more sophisticated AI algorithms being used to analyze market data, identify trading opportunities, and execute trades. Additionally, we may see new applications of AI in areas such as risk management and portfolio optimization. Conclusion In conclusion, AI is an increasingly important tool for traders looking to gain a competitive advantage in the world of algorithmic trading. By using AI algorithms to analyze market data and make trading decisions, traders can operate with a speed and efficiency that is impossible for human traders. However, there are also potential challenges associated with using AI in trading, including the need for high-quality data and ethical considerations. As the technology continues to develop, we can expect to see even more sophisticated applications of AI in the world of algorithmic trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
8 Trading Tips to Help You Increase Your Trading Profits Whether you are just getting started or you’ve been on your journey for a while now, you’ve probably discovered that day trading is not easy. You’re putting your hard-earned money on the line and facing new challenges daily. That said, every challenge you conquer takes you one step closer to your ultimate goal. Small behavioral changes can have profound impacts. Your goal is to minimize losses and maximize profits in order to increase your net profitability. Here are some tips: 1. Avoid Overtrading Traders are ambitious, sometimes too much so. Many traders feel the need to always be doing something. It’s important to remember that trading requires patience, and the quality of your trades is far more important than the quantity. 2. Avoid Under-trading Do you ever find a great trade setup that you don’t take action on, only to look back later and realize your idea was spot on? 3. Take Control of Your Losses As traders, we’re always focused on profits. After all, the main goal of trading is to turn money into more money. It’s easy to get carried away and forget about the very real potential for losses. In reality, limiting losses has the same net effect as increasing profits. 4. Simplify Your Approach There is an incredible amount of data available to traders in this digital millennium. This data is intended to improve our decision-making abilities, however it can also be overwhelming. 5. Trade Robotically As you begin to simplify your approach to trading, you can focus on making your strategy more robotic. The goal is to take all emotions out of trading so you can take a systematic approach to your trading. 6. Learn Your Strengths and Weaknesses Becoming a successful trader requires introspection, self-analysis, and evolution. Simply put, you need to analyze your own behavior and look for areas of improvement. 7. Double Down on What’s Working Learn to double down on areas of strength. Focus your efforts to trading activity that yields the highest rewards. 8. Don’t be Afraid to Go Back to Square One If you find yourself in a rut, don’t hesitate to go back to basics. In the trading world, a simple piece of advice can be a game changer. We’ve all heard quotes, lessons, or tips that have elevated our trading to new levels. What’s the best trading tip you’ve ever received? What do you want to learn in the next post?
TVC:GOLDEducation
by UnitedSignals
10
Targets Matter TooIt may not seem like it is very critical, but let's use two traders as an example. Trader #1 on the left uses targets. They know the move may be way bigger than what they target, but every time they close a position, they can re-enter again, keeping a small risk for consistent reward. Trader #2 on the right wants a home run every trade, and they do not use targets. They know big moves happen and they want it (greed) If they risk small, evetually they will get the home run trade, but at what cost? Trader #1 had a great day. They took 7 trades and lost two. Final results +135 points (150 won from 5 x 30, -15 from 2 lost) They had a consistent hit rate, closed several winners, and never had to stress about the charts because their move was over in a few minutes. No grey hairs today. Trader #2 however sees how trader #1 does things, and thinks, "that's no good. All those tiny trades and short targets, they could just make one trade and make HUGE! that's what I'll do...." They see a possible entry, and it works. Price gets jumpy and they get excited "This just has to go forever! I'm rich! Beat that other trader!" They have to go to sleep eventually and let the trade run. When they wake in the morning, they find they were stopped out. How? It left with so much momentum there's no way it would come back! :( Now trader 2 wakes up to a bad trade, which makes the rest of the day terrible. Why couldn't they catch that and close it? It's ok, I'll try again. Set another trade, watch for hours, walk away and same result. Constantly getting stressed and worrying about the stop being hit, because they don't have a target that makes sense. Maybe they do put targets in eventually, but then the "This is a home run!" sets in, and they remove the target, because hey, one trade for 300 pips is better than 10 for 30, it's just logical, right? Stop hit after stop hit, and eventually, the account goes kaput. Had trader#2 copied the target mentality, And set even a slightly beyond reason target, they still have more chance of success than the "Home run hunter" Yes, the 100 r trade is awesome, I'd like to have one. The only problem with hunting that massive winner is it will cost you a lot more than just some money. It will cost you time, stress, sanity, and make your head grey before it's time. So is the home run really worth this? I'll leave that decision to the individual, but numbers don't lie. The trader with targets is doing well. They can even raise their lot sizes with confidence, and know that when they lose 4 times, it's a bad day (Because of R:R) and stop to keep the account healthy. The trader without a target just keeps losing trades, deals with constant excitement and doubt, can't leave the charts, and can never be confident enough to trade beyond a minimum size, because they have been stopped out so many times, what if they take the risk and it (likely) fails, like all the other trades..... And they never grow the account, even if they do all the other things right. They may get profitable, but they won't ever grow exponentially, because the confidence will never agree with the trade, and they won't be able to hold it long enough to be worth it. Targets are where consistency comes from. This is especially true about scalping. DON'T BE GREEDY! Set a target and take the money. Stop letting a fast candle delete your target. Often times, price will run, you remove the target, and u-turn right to the stop loss (probably reaching the target you had). Don't delete a winner and get knocked out by a stop run over volatility. They also can not get a solid statistic for trades, and never gain the certainty in putting the risk on the line. Trader #1 can do whatever they want. They know how often they win, how well the system they use works, and they know about what to expect for a return on a good day, so they can trade any amount and let it run to the target without panic. They know out of 10 trades, they lose 4 times. Because of the R ratio, If they use the same value for the lot stops, they will make money no matter the trades play out..... Comfortable, no greed, certain, and highly profitable to a point of exponential account growth. That's how they do it.... So, pick a R ratio, 1:2-3-4. Use it consistently, and then tally the results. After some practice, you can find a good ratio that works for your trading style. The larger the ratio, the less you will win. The math is on your side though, because 1:3 only needs to win 4 out of 10 times to make money... Pick one that fits your strategy/style/level of patience, and you may find a big difference in your trading consistency. Consistency is what really makes or breaks an account. Consistently hit targets, account will grow. Consistently enter, wait days, and stop out will surely ruin the account over time. Stop the account demise with targets, and ALWAYS have a target if you find yourself breakeven or stopped out often.
Education
by ForexStoryteller
6 ways to stop loss in gold Take profit and stop loss are one of the most important links in the entire trading system. After studying this article, you will be able to thoroughly understand the stop loss method. You can bookmark it before reading it. If you feel that you have gained something, you can like it, thank you. 1. 6 stop loss methods Stop loss means that when our order loss reaches a predetermined value, we need to close the position in time to avoid greater losses. In a complete trading system, stop loss Stop loss is divided into static stop loss and dynamic stop loss. Static stop loss means that after the order enters the market, the stop loss is set at a fixed stop loss space, or the stop loss amount remains unchanged. Once the market trend is unfavorable, the stop loss will be closed when the set position is reached. For example, after an order enters the market, set a stop loss of 100 points, and close the position when 100 points arrive. Dynamic stop loss means that the standard of stop loss in the trading system is dynamic. When we hold a position, the market is constantly fluctuating, and there is no fixed point for when to stop the loss. We must observe the dynamic market changes until there is a trend that meets the stop loss standard, and then stop the order. For example, when holding long orders, the stop loss standard is that the market forms a short reverse break position structure, and we will stop the loss manually at this time. Method 1: Fixed stop loss space, or fixed stop loss amount. This is a relatively simple static stop loss method. After the order enters the market, set a fixed stop loss space, for example, after an intraday trading order enters the market, set a fixed 30-point stop loss. Or set a fixed amount stop loss, for example, if the order loss reaches 1% of the principal, the stop loss will be stopped. There are also traders in the stock market who stop loss at a fixed percentage of market retracement, for example, stop loss if the stock falls by 5%. In this way of stop loss, the space for stop loss should be determined according to the specific volatility of different varieties.is absolutely necessary, and a trading strategy without stop loss will eventually end in loss. Method 2: Stop loss at high and low points. High and low point stop loss is the most common stop loss technical standard, and it is also a static stop loss method. The market always operates in the form of waves, so there will be continuous rising or falling callback highs and lows. These highs and lows are also called inflection points. In actual combat, the starting point of the wave or the inflection point of the callback is used as the stop loss point. After the bottom of the market breaks, open a position. There are two ways to use stop loss at high and low points. One is to place it at the inflection point, and the other is to place it at the starting point of the wave. The inflection point stop loss, the stop loss space is small, the profit and loss ratio is good, but the fault tolerance rate is low, and it is more aggressive. Stop loss at the starting point of the market, the space for stop loss is large, and the profit-loss ratio is worse, but the fault tolerance rate is high and more conservative. This stop loss method is also relatively flexible, as the volatility changes, the stop loss space will also be adjusted. Method 3: Combine technical stop loss. Stop loss combined with technical positions refers to the combination of key positions of technical indicators in actual combat, and stop loss when the market breaks through these technical positions. For example, important support and pressure levels, or technical moving average levels, etc. Method 4: Stop loss in trend reversal pattern. This is a dynamic stop loss method. After the order enters the market, the market goes out of a reverse structure or form. At this time, it can be understood that the trend has reversed and the order is stopped. In actual combat, you can combine your most commonly used criteria for confirming reversals. You can use the crossing of moving averages, or the breakout of trend lines and channel lines, etc., as long as the standards are consistent. Method 5: Stop losses in batches. In an order, set multiple stop loss standards, and stop losses in batches in proportion to different stop loss points. This is a compromise stop loss method. Set different stop loss points through different stop loss standards to disperse the risk of stop loss. In actual combat, it is often encountered that after the order stop loss, the market reverses and goes out of the original trend. At this time, because the order has stopped loss, it is very disadvantageous. The operation of batch stop loss can keep a part of the position when encountering this situation, and can continue to make profits after the market goes out of the direction again. Method 6: Moving stop loss. Trailing stop loss means that after the order enters the market, the market develops in a favorable direction. After leaving the entry point and gradually generating profits, the stop loss is adjusted from the original stop loss point to a more favorable direction. The market gradually develops and the stop loss Also adjust gradually. Moving stop loss is a bit like the left and right feet when climbing stairs. When your right foot goes up the steps, your left foot will follow. Every time the profit increases to a certain extent, the stop loss will follow. The first purpose of trailing stop loss is to preserve capital, so most of the time the first step of trailing stop loss is to move the stop loss to the cost price. In this way, even if the worst result is encountered, the order will be out of the market without loss. After setting the trailing stop loss, the order will no longer lose money, and even the profit has been locked. At this time, the psychological pressure of holding positions is very small, which is conducive to the execution of transactions. These 6 stop loss methods, you can choose the appropriate method according to your own trading strategy OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! TVC:USOIL BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P COINBASE:BTCUSD
TVC:GOLDEducation
by CheetahAttack