Importance of Risk Management - let's talk about it againIntroduction
We all hear from everywhere about risk management. They all say the same: “It’s important, it will help you to protect your capital, etc., etc.” But today I wanted to talk to myself about risk management in more detail. And I’m sure I will have a much better understanding of practical risk management in forex after this - I will talk through its psychological aspects, about RM role as the main principle of trading. I will do it in “talking to myself” format to remind myself in the first place about how important risk management it.
Don’t be fooled by the simplicity of risk management.
Unfortunately, risk management in FX is too simple. Dangerously simple I would say.
In its basic form, good risk management means risking 0.25%-1% of your account per one trade. That’s it. Just do that and most likely you will have an unbreakable account for at least several months.
Yes, of course, you can have a drawdown due to emotional trading or revenge trading or whatsoever. But because you will have good risk management, I will have so much time to stop trading emotionally, I can even take 10 revenge trade or 10 absolutely random stupid trades - and your capital will still be in place, even if you will lose every and each of these 20 trades.
I ask myself the question - how do people blow their accounts? Very often it happens in 1-5 days of bad, emotional trading, even if the whole months before was good. I’m talking from my experience though, and I don’t know - maybe everyone else is good as their risk management.
So why really it happens? In the first place because of bad risk management. Not because of the strategy, not because of the market acting randomly and not in my favor. Because I don’t want to have a simple yet powerful rule of risking 0.25-1% per trade. I start to complicate things and want to risk 5-20% at first, to gain some profits, and only THEN I want to implement good RM. Theoretically, it’s possible, yes, but in reality, I lose my mind and blow my account. So don’t be fooled by the simplicity of RM - because it’s not easy. Because it’s not easy to control yourself while facing a possibility of doubling your account in 1 day and to stay calm and even indifferent to it.
Always remember, Risk Management is the #1 rule, you can't control the market, but you can control your risk management. Stay calm and risk 1%.
Trading is a survival game. RM is the foundation of any strategy, risk management is the most important part of any strategy and step #1. Stay calm and risk 1%.
Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot sleep because of your stock market position (you are weak), then you have gone too far. Reduce your positions to the sleeping level." Stay calm and risk 1%.
Risk Management
Mental Tips of TradingIntroduction
- To lower stress levels, trade less and get away from watching every single price chance. Day traders could trade only the open and closing hour, swing traders could just take opening and closing signals. You could go from every tick to just checking in every hour or so if you have options or hard stops in. Most of the days, trading is random noise, and randomness will cause stress. Focus on your timeframe, and only the quotes that really matter when they matter.
How to not be stressed while trading?
- Only trade when the odds are in your favor. It is much less stressful trading this way.
- Do not blame yourself for losses if you followed all your rules. The market giveth and the market taketh, just keep taking your entries and exits.
- If you don't know what to do, DO NOTHING.
- Do not listen to any unsolicited advice about the trade you are in. Follow your own plan and shield yourself from distraction.
- Know yourself as a trader, and only take your kind of trades. Take trades that will leave no regrets because they were good trades, regardless of the outcome.
- Believe in your ability to follow your trading plan. You must have faith in yourself to lower your stress level.
- Keep your EGO our of your trading, run it like a business, with the profits and losses as your focus and not your ego.
Coherence
- Your brain and heart works the best when there is synchronization between all systems, this is called 'coherence'. Researchers throughout the '90s established that with every beat of the heart, intricate messages are being sent to the entire body.
- As people experience emotional reactions like frustration, irritation, anxiety, or anger, heart rhythms become chaotic, which interferes with communication between the heart and the brain.
- If you are not in tune with yourself, you can cause DORMANT fears of failure to awaken, and you will undoubtedly miss good opportunities through making IRRATIONAL trading decisions.
Emotional Intelligence in Trading
- The Emotional Quotient (emotional intelligence) is our ability to recognize and assess our own emotions, to manage these emotions in order to achieve our purposes.
- EQ is also the ability to discriminate between different emotions of the people and label them correctly, by using the emotional information to guide thoughts and behavior. @here
How does this apply to trading?
- Emotional intelligence makes a great part of a trader's performance. It has proven that the human brain has the power to increase EQ by effort (trying, being persistent, following rules, backtesting strategies) and education (studying, performing research).
- Self-awareness: Every trader should be aware of his/her qualities, strengths and weaknesses so then he/she could manage better his emotions and take right decisions when trading.
- Motivation: Very well motivated traders are more challenged and are more abled to take right decisions in the market.
- Self-control: Controlling emotions is a crucial element of the trading process. It is important for a trader to regulate his emotions by targeting them to a proper and emotionally balanced activity.
- Being able to monitor our own emotions is perhaps the greatest skill we can have. Traders who can handle their negative emotions are the most successful ones.
How to stop being impulsive and over-trade
- Did you know that there is an actual ANATOMY to 'Impulsive Emotional Hijacking'.
Wang was prepared. After careful observation and charting, he planned his trade - and knew what he was looking to do. Now he is going to trade his plan.
He brought his charts up and declared, "I'm going to make money today.", he said it with the confidence of his winning mindset as he glanced at the P/L of his trading account.
Just sitting there watching the pre-market activity, Wang could feel the excitement building :vince: . So much opportunity, and it looked promising. Wang was ready to take advantage of it, this time he was going to build his account up -- not blow it up.
As the market opened, he sees that TSLA FB SPY just taking off like a rocket. "Man, that was sweet. I could have rode that one!" He muttered to himself as his excitement grew. He IMAGINED what the money would look like in his trading account. It felt good, then he saw another potential trade. "There was real opportunity this morning." he thought.
Wang sits on the sideline while others were taking advantage of the action, and that got his competitive JUICES flowing. Then another one came up, not willing to let another one get away from him, he jumped on this one. Almost immediately, it took off.
"YEESSSSIRRRRRR"
Then suddenly it turned against him, heading for his stop. He caught his P/L in the corner of his eye taking a nose dive. WANG felt a surge of energy and resolve flow through him, "It'll come back. I'll give it some more room, I can feel it." So he moved his stop to let this one play out. It crashed right through and stopped him out.
Now, after this loss... He wanted to get even, so he quickly found another setup that looked good to him and jumped in ready to win and vindicate himself. That trade turned against him almost immediately and stopped him out, sounds familiar?
Over-trading, or impulsive trading (to be more accurate), is a common problem. It blows up trading accounts too many times to be counted.
It is common 'wisdom' that a trader needs to plan his/her trade and then trade his/her plan. But just like WANG in the example, traders end up jumping into trades that they have no business being in.
They know what to do... They just cannot do it in the heat of the trade. It's perplexing.
WangYesterday at 7:56 PM
Notice, initially, WANG starts with the best of intentions. He does his homework, studies his charts, and planned his trade with the intention of trading his plan. We know that he did not do that in the heat of the trade, but we do know what he started out with a credible plan. Then something happened, but what?
He started out by ATTUNING to the market so that he had a feel for it. Then he took the first step into his personal abyss - He declared "I'M GOING TO MAKE MONEY TODAY." This is an affirmation and visualization that many traders make as they prepare for their day and it is a mindset that they keep engaging in throughout the day. Their minds are focused on making money today, you can hear the urgency - TODAY.
The problem with this line of thinking is that you DO NOT control whether you win or lose in trading. If you keep pushing that you are going to win, when you have ABSOLUTELY NO CONTROL over your declaration, what do you think is going to happen? Your survival brain eventually REBELS against you.
Let me take you down the rabbit hole again -->
WANG is an alpha personality, he believes that his will should prevail and that he can make winning happen.
He came by that attitude honestly as he was a man who always strived for success, and now he has focused that energy on trading. In his other approach to life prior to trading, he knew how to win, to make things happen, and (especially) not to lose. It served him well, until now.
WANG's identity is built around winning - not managing probability. His determined and forceful attitude molded his personality. The problem is that this mindset, forged by winning repeatedly, did not prepare him for trading environment where randomness of the markets prevails.
The toughest part, though, was losing. WANG hated to lose, and that trait manifested when he revenge traded. His grit simply would not let him lose, he would attack even harder and determined to get his losses back no matter what.
What I am asking YOU to see is the short fuse on the alpha's winning mindset. It happened so fast and the hijackings was so natural to him that he never noticed it - until after the damage was done. Yep, he done blew up his account. :cryroll:
How do you fix this mentality in trading?
It comes down to self-mastery, where winning becomes focused instead solely on landing on the right side of the probability and losing only means that you have landed on the wrong side probability.
Are you ready? --->
- While trading, there is no thrill of winning, nor agony of defeat. It was only probability - either way. What matters is the mind you bring into the moment of performance. This is the game changer, it is the psychological edge where you are no longer PROVING yourself.
- You are only performing, that is the mind that gives you the edge of what's possible. A new kind of mentality has to rise from the impulsive blunders of the past. This one is rooted in PATIENCE.
- Instead of stalking opportunity, the new WANG waits in ambush for the opportunity to COME TO HIM. Like I always say, be a sniper and not a machinegunner.
Trading is about embracing uncertainty, while the brain you brought to trading is wired for certainty, prediction, and control.
Rewiring your brain begins with calming the emotions that coordinate action/behavior between the trader and the environments of the market.
"I was doing so good, my mind was in the zone and it felt like a state of flow. I made $1200 in the morning and stopped for the day, just like my trading rules dictate. Couldn't have been happier. Wow, this was really working!"
The very next morning ---> "I'm in a good mood and ready for the day, then I turned around and gave all my profits back - and then some. It's baffling, I thought I had my head together but before I knew it - I got stuck into a vortex that sucked capital right out of my wallet. Why does this keep happening?
It's a common problem.
- Most "students" of trading seek consistent profitability on a regular basis. You get some momentum going and begin to see your trading gel. Your confidence begins to grow, showing that you can, indeed, make consistent money by trading. Then it just blows up right in your face, not only do you lose the gain you made - you lost some more. Often a whole lot more, one minute you have a growing confidence that you can do this trading thing. The next minute, that confidence burns down and frustration grows from the ashes.
So, what's behind the self-sabotage?
- Winning makes you feel good, and you want to win - to make money. When the trader in the example "wins" $1200 in a single trade, it made him feel good. Why? Because winning triggers a hormone called 'dopamine' (at the center of the reward chemistry of the human brain), and that is the problem.
- The euphoria of "feeling good" is an emotional state that causes thinking to become skewed into believing that the good times are going to roll on forever and that he/she (trader) has the power to control the outcome of the trade. However, winning (in this trader's understanding) produces this sense of power that is dangerous to the management of uncertainty.
- The emotion of euphoria that appeared when the trader won also warped the kind of thinking and analysis that he/she was capable of producing as a trader.
- The winning trade led not to power, rather, led to euphoria --> over-confidence --> then caused the trader to believe he was making the winning happen.
- Factors that give rise to an effective trading mind are: Discipline ; risk management ; courage ; self-soothing ; and impartiality. Feeling GOOD has ABSOLUTELY NO PART in a profitable trader's mind. First thing to accept as a trader is that "feeling good" is not desirable as a trading emotion.
- You have to be able to notice if and when "feeling good" has started contaminating your trading mind, and that is way easier said than done.
Many traders believe that if they could get past their fear of loss, they would not have problems in trading.
But you would then only be able to deal with losses, you need to learn how to deal with winning and the over-confidence that can easily develop when a trader starts winning. You have to learn how to deal with the euphoria associated with winning. It's just the evolution of the trader beginning to adapt to the demands of successful trading.
Most impulsive trading is primarily rooted in the emotions of LUST, rather than 'greed'. Many traders experience the awakening of 'lust' (wanting more, more, and more) after winning and pocketing in money.
Greed is about wanting more than your reasonable share, so there is a balance between lust's "wanting more, more, and more" and greed's wanting more than your reasonable share, which plays into the phenomena of "giving it all back and more".
The potential of a successful trader's mind is in the balance and mastering the mind.
You can be the designer of the mind you bring to the engagement of uncertainty and risk, rather than its hostage.
No matter what you have been told, the brain/mind that you brought to trading CANNOT bring you success in trading. In fact, it will lock you into failure.
Rebuild the brain/mind against the WILL of your survival brain, because it is built for SHORT TERM SURVIVAL and gives you the signal that you need to be in control which you cannot due to market's uncertainty. Your survival brain is freaked out by the uncertainty, risk, and speed of day trading. You experience this as fear or aggression in your trading that takes over rational thinking in moments of stress. This will not change with experience or trying harder or trying to exert control. -- Your brain has to be RE-TRAINED.
If you can get your brain unstuck, your emotional part of the brain can be developed to engage uncertainty, risk, and the speed from a patient and disciplined response rather than the reactive response that is common among traders.
'Emotional Regulation' and 'Mindfulness' are the essential skills needed in order to adapt your brain/mind for performance in trading.
When trading, focus on what you can control. Let your MIND manage your performance.
We all understand that losses are hard. But the year is young, and there are lots of opportunities ahead to make it all back. The only thing is that the opportunities will ONLY appear to those that are PREPARED and able to MAINTAIN a sober mind.
Train yourself to approach trading in a way that's sustainable as opposed to letting it be something that consistently plays with your emotions and wears you down.
Meaning...
'Risk management and 'mindset management'.
It is crucial that you understand the market is NOT A CASH COW you get to milk whenever you want. The market is its own beast, remember that.
There comes a moment when a "struggling" trader has to acknowledge that what they are doing is not working. Your trading performance is not going to change until this realization humbles you to the core.
You have no control over whether you win or lose - but most traders are consumed by winning and losing. They are possessed by something that they can never control.
What you can learn, though, is to control the mind that you bring into trading performance. Let go of the illusion of 'control over outcome' and embrace building the mentality that you need to be managing uncertainty.
A quick look at funded trader prop firmsI hear alot about those and I see alot of ads and get e-mails for certain of those and I am stubborn and refuse to acknowledge the existance of something if they annoy me through ads but I was genuinely curious (that's what they want us to think) because to me "I'm a professional prop trader" sounds alot like "I'm a professional poop sucker".
Is this prop trading really for the experience very good traders? Well from my research no it is not.
You get more funds to trade cool ok, with a regular broker you also get more funds to trade it is called leverage.
You can change the name all you want it's still the same thing.
Either:
1- They let you put your money at risk by requiring you to have a small stake in the whole pot (drawdowns eat up your part of the pot not theirs)
2- They entirely fund the account but actually not really, I explain in the next paragraph
Here is 1 example (this is one of the best reviewed ones the bottom ones are not even worth looking at or yes but just for laughing):
After asking you questions like "what do you plan if you lose 10 in a row", you know this kind of things, and more, and after a demo period of a few weeks or months , they will put you on an account with certain rules. Early on you have more restrictions like smaller max position sizes until you reach a certain profit.
In this example to trade a $25000 account there is a $150 monthly fee and also I think a 150 evaluation fee at the start. There is a trailing drawdown stop of $1500 (6% drawdown), so after a couple months of paying subscriptions and making profit for them their "regular" risk is gone (not the swissie one). They do provide some content, like data feed (I don't remember how much brokers charge for this it's in the same area w/e). So they are not taking all the risk, clients (? what should we call them?) pay to cover the risk.
Another example is really troll. Like I don't even see why they ask traders to write up so much and go through huge courses (no matter who they are even George Soros has to take the course) and then spend months on demo to be "really sure" and then they put you on a 1k account then 10k after 2 green months, then 20k after 2 green months jesus it takes forever to get some size. And the funny part? They expect you to fund part of the account like 20% and that's your drawdown limit basically (not written in any contract I don't think but they'll just cut you off when you run out of your own money). So you take basically all the risk and they keep 30% of the profit. I don't even get why they go through all these double checks...
Most of their risks are with:
- new random traders (they double check these guys but there is only so much they can do)
- some idiot that scalps the swiss franc for 1 point above the floor and blows the whole account
- the typical trash strategy that keeps winning until it does not and then it's the road to zero (the program ends once drawdown is reached)
So the major advantages are:
- access to leverage you get with any broker,
- rogue traders with the discipline of a meth addict get something out of it which are all sorts of restrictions (so... useful for most people actually),
- sometimes access to experienced traders & people that can help you out, depending how autistic they are or not,
- proprietary tools, all sorts of goodies like a chart with the calendar directly on it,
- Some serious capital obviously the biggest one, without the whole risk associated, which also means less stress (still don't get a salary so...),
- also I guess telling clueless people you are a "professional" to help you sell courses & EAS weeell I mean if they have traded with the firm for a few months they have made some money and didn't drawdown 3% or whatever the limit is but doesn't mean they are Jim Chanos of forex most likely they have a trash system that works until it doesn't (not that bad if you stop using it when it drawdowns too much as those firms are doing).
Seeing that some profitable "investors" (over a few months or years at most imo) end up joining the ones that let you take all the risk and charge you for the priviledge really tells that yes an idiot with the rational analytical abilities of a potato can come up with a profitable strategy if he puts the hours in. But trust me, the road will be hard and the individual won't become a "big short" hero or Soros.
Kweku said he knew he wasn't the smartest but he made sure if someone put 1 hour in he'd put 2. He got promoted too fast, they pushed him for more performance, he was afraid of getting deported and then he went full commando and lost billions and got deported to Ghana. Now he give seminars where he whines that bankers are really mean people or something. I don't know what really happened, couldn't he put his foot down? I hate bankers too but I haven't heard bank traders complain only rogue psychopaths at least Nick Leeson or whatshisname Nikkei futures gambler that tried to manipulate the market and "averaged down" (lmao) didn't come up with all these excuses. Reminds me SocGen where I worked (not as a trader) are just so damn annoying with security now, and I read a comm from them where they invested (in hindsight, it's always in hindsight) I don't know how many millions into failsafes and risk management etc. Should have invested way less millions and way earlier than this guys 😬
They won't make you profitable (ok unless what's keeping you from making it is you are a psychopath that can't help it or as they call it "undisciplined"), but you have less risk than if you just went *100 on mex, your risk will be spread over time through the money you made for them and a part of the monthly fees.
It's not that bad but it's not that great either. I didn't go into the full calculations you'd have to check risk over time and so on.
The coolest part is the ease of mind (chf) but I couldn't care less I live in Europe and we got negative balance protection and guarenteed stops haha what a scam for brokers.
Hey actually I already abused that with Oil a few months ago my broker ate the full losses and I got the full win on my other broker.
Wups my bad I'm a retail trader no one told me Oil could go negative (really) I thought I clic then lambo.
It is not crazy either for the company I don't think. All in all both sides get something out of it.
It is better at the start for traders and better as time goes by for the firm in my eyes. They invest time and take most risks at the start, then month after month cash in with less and less risk.
Talking about the ones that aren't complete scams obviously this does not apply to "put 10% in that's your max drawdown" these guys for real? 😆
They have some additional rules, for example you might not need to pay for the data (if you already have it via tradingview for example), oh and if you just afk for several days they fire you (you are allowed to take holidays relax but you have to warn first). I'm not sure but I think those are mostly for day traders. They can't sit with someone for 3 years before knowing if he is good or not so wouldn't make sense otherwise.
This depressing grind is not soon over for me I'm afraid. Slow feedback sow growth. And without any upside. Not a day trader at all but I STILL have to check charts every day and do research all the time oh gosh why oh why I tried to write down a process and use combos of indicators to make it as easy as possible but I STILL have to scan through 40 charts all the time AND set alerts AND not overfocus one 1 strategy then miss out AND check these alerts over and over AND make a full preliminary TA I estimate on average once a day (2 charts a day so it's not that bad) then full TA set entry etc then watch my position over the day I don't just abandon them and if I look away that's when they'll move and need my attention.
10*40 = 400 alerts a year so about 2 a day (not counting the "other" alerts obviously, only the initial part that is really anoying)
Little deviation here xd
Why can't I just press a button and have it do every thing for me?
I don't want to miss anything, I don't want to spend to much time on boring repetitive tasks,
I don't want to forget doing my boring repetitive tasks,
but there is no hope there is no cure there are no tricks.
Grind the charts, grind the account size.
Basically I can make it quite simple I don't need to go draw every level and everything.
So I get 40 signals a month or what? I end up having to TA 40 times a month, mostly false signals.
Opposed to this I just TA everything - 35 charts - the week end, and then not sure if I keep it like this charts get dirty or re-TA.
Damn the result is almost the same. As much work. No way around it I have to TA false signals I thought of 10 other methods it always comes back to the same.
With the alerts first it is better I TA useless things less, but I won't see as much, but I will because when I get an alert I do my TA regardless, and only in one direction not both so I gain something.
I just want to hire a wagecuck intern to do the dumb boring part xd Found a use for these 80 IQS that society left on the side road. Wait no they'll mess it up 100%.
Maybe I can put dancing squirrels shouting motivational orders on my screen to get me through it. Or give myself a reward. Help plz someone I'm desperate this bores me so much.
Ok that's it not going to make a full in depth review either just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.
Impulse VS Correction - Price Action Analysis Hello everyone:
In this educational video, I will go over what an impulse and a correction is in the market.
I will point out how to distinguish them in different time frames, and give a few examples on them as well.
The market can only be in two phrases.
Either its in an impulsive phrase, or a corrective phrase.
It doesn't matter what market or the time frames you are looking at, there will always be impulses and corrections.
So, what is an impulse, and what is a correction?
Impulse - price is in the high momentum period, and it's moving very fast.
Correction - price is consolidating, and moving sideway, or slowing ascending/descending sideway price action.
Determine what is impulse, and what is correction will give you a better edge in the market. You don't want to get trapped in the consolidation within the corrections.
How can I utilize this to my analysis ?
Multi-time frame analysis:
From HTF, top down approach, Understand what HTF is doing and go down to LTF for confirmation and entries for the best R:R.
Thank you
My journey in trading, experiences, ups and downs.
Hello everyone:
In this video (all talking in this one) I am gonna talk about my trading journey and experiences. All the ups and downs that I have been through in hope to give new and experienced traders a honest raw example of a trader’s journey.
Of course everyone learns and absorbs information differently, and I am sure there are people out there who didn't have to go through the way I did, but I thought sharing my journey would help some of us who are still struggling to find consistency in trading.
So, a little bit about my trading journey:
Beginning Stage
-Not profitable the first 2+ years, gone through the roller coaster ride of a trader’s journey
-Start with S.R and indicators. Does work and makes profit, but doesn't suit my personality.
-Was not consistent, some weeks in profit, some months in losses
-Made all the mistakes, wanted to give up and quit many times.
-Had negative trading emotions, mindset, and no idea on trading psychology
-Not following the trading plan, no risk management
-Over trading, over risking, revenge trading
-Emotional when I miss out potential runs of the market
-Blame the market on my losses
Turning Stage:
-Did not give up
-Admit all my mistakes, work on them, change them.
-Truthy admit you are in control of your trading account, not the market, strategies, mentors or other external factors
-Put in the time and effort, understand that this is something it can be your career for the next 30 years, what is it to you to put in a few years of hard work ?
Acknowledge the market will evolve and change, and we need to adapt as a trader
-Understand trading is a probability game, not right or wrong. I can be wrong, and won't affect my emotions.
-Want to be the "house" rather than a "player" in a casino setting,
-Learn about price action and structures.
-Have no problem missing trades and profits, understand the abundance of opportunities in trading
-Follow my trading plans, make goals, back testing, forecasting, journaling
-Acknowledge my expectations in trading,
3:1 RR, 15-20 trades, 1% risk per trade, 35-40% strike rate (higher strike rate requires less R:R). Looking for consistent growth of accounts and capital
-Understand once you are consistent, there will be more opportunities and investors who are willing to let you trade
-Continue to have a humble attitude in trading and market
-Continue to learn and grow
So I hope I answer most of the questions that you have asked, but if you have additional questions on my journey and anything else, let me know below. :)
Thank you
"Trend is Your Friend" AnalogyI accidentally deleted my first draft of this so this is the condensed blunt version.
*Leaving Tradelandia*
Imagine your friend Bob is throwing a big party this weekend and it sounds like it's going to be good one.
The trend is movement. The trend is whether or not people are going to the party... not necessarily the quality of the party itself.
One more time; THE TREND IS WHERE PEOPLE ARE GOING... not which is "better".
Numerous factors contribute to the "trend" for his party. It's possible there's going to be amazing food, lots of entertainment.... and still not having anyone attend.
Maybe it's because the party is on a weeknight, there's traffic, or another friend Sarah is also throwing a party at the time.
The trend is where people are going.
For beginner investors
Pretend you didn't know Bob's party is an outdoor party and it's raining.
"The trend is your friend" can shield you from making the mistake of not knowing or factoring these conditions into your decision because others that do know this information, will be using it in their decisions and going to Sarah's party.
The fact that the trend is to go to Sarah's means, you don't have to make the mistake of thinking "I bet everyone will be going to Bob's because he's serving Pizza"... and then be wrong since everyone else knew about the rain.
For intermediate investors
Imagine you are running late and you call a friend to decide which party to go to. The friend says, "Bob's party is better and there are more people here!". THIS IS NOT THE TREND. The trend is not a static snapshot.
It's possible a big group of people agreed to go to Bob's party first, then head to Sarah's. As you head to Bob's, this group heads to Sarah's. You get to an empty party at Bob's with the food gone and missed the fun.
You should have been asking your friend, "by the time I get to the party, will more people be arriving? are people leaving by now? Even if the party is fun, will it be as fun once I am there?"
Even if you're friend didn't give you much insight and just said, "Most people are leaving the party in the next 10 minutes"... it likely is enough information to not need to know why they are leaving. That's the trend.
For advanced investors
Do you get caught up in party details and speculating event turn out? Are you wasting time crunching numbers, asking what food will be at the party, and other information... only to find out you're calculations didn't result in figuring out where everyone else is going? Some last minute party came up and everyone went there? Are you at Bob's party annoyed that Sarah's party isn't as fun and everyone would like Bob's more?
Maybe it's time you step back from over antipicating, wait to see where most people are going, and go with them. After all, that's the objective anyways right? Getting to the party fashionably late is better than never and you took less risk waiting.
Feel free to add any other cheesy examples in the comments and blow this up.
In Depth Look at Continuation & Reversal Structures/Patterns
Hi everyone:
In this educational video, I will explain how I determine reversal and continuation structures/patterns in the market.
Many have asked me to break this topic down more in depth and in live, so I hope I can address all the questions I get on this.
So, in my opinion there is only 2 main type of structures/patterns:
Continuation Structures
Reversal Structures
The key to find consistency in price action trading is to identify what kind of correction the structure is forming. Is it a reversal, or is it a continuation?
Since after a correction is finished, we are likely to see an impulse move from that structure, and it's good to understand when and how likely that structure will either continue or reverse the current price.
Below I will list out some of the most commonly identified reversal and continuation corrections.
To me, it's not too important what people call these structures/patterns, but what you need to determine is, is it a reversal or continuation structure?
Because, the market is ever evolving, and price action structures/patterns are also evolving.
Sure we can learn a lot from the typical “Textbook” structure and patterns, but they often or not won't be picture perfect,
and we need to utilize what else the market is telling us to determine the structures.
Continuation Structure
-flag
-channel
-triangle
-pennant
Reversal Structure
-wedge
-ascending/descending channel
-Double Tops/Bottoms (M and W pattern)
-Head and Shoulder
Understanding how the price has been moving thus far, will give you a more clear understanding of what the structure is going to form.
For example:
-When we see price at the top of a HTF structure, slowing down and correcting itself up, you will be looking for reversal structure from the top, and looking for the sell.
-When we see prices broken out of the HTF structure, you will be looking for a continuation structure to form and continue the buy.
As always ,feel free to ask me questions or comments.
Thank you
Holding through a drawdown.In my opinion, there is no need to hold through a draw down. Exit the trade that goes against you, and place an order at your original entry in case price comes back up to that level. Why sit there at look at a negative PnL HOPING the trade will turn around? Check out the video example.
Why Did The Stock Market Crash?Last Wednesday, I warned during my live show that the market could crash soon.
And it did...
The next day the NASDAQ lost more than 5% – and for the next few days it kept moving lower.
And not to brag, but I pretty much nailed my prediction:
I said the S&P would correct to 3,400 and then bounce back. Well, I was off by a few points. It went down to 3,330 and then bounced back. Close enough 🙂
So why did the stock market just have a bit of a flash crash?
And will they keep crashing, or is the worst over now?
In order to answer the question “why are the markets crashing,” let’s back off for a moment and discuss why stocks exist in the first place.
At some point, a company may need to raise capital, and they don’t necessarily want to borrow it from the bank. So they sell parts of the company to investors, and these are shares.
Let’s take a look at a company like Apple AAPL.
They have issued 17.1 BILLION shares.
Now let’s compare this to another company that has been incredibly popular this year, Zoom Communications (ZM). They have issued 194.76 Million shares. As you can see, that’s much less.
EPS And A Market Crash?
So in order to compare these 2 companies, smart people (way smarter than me) came up with the idea of creating a metric, the EPS, or Earnings Per Share.
This metric tells you how much a company earns per ONE share of stock that they issue. So for AAPL that’s $3.30 and for ZOOM that’s $0.78.
As you can see, AAPL is much more profitable per share that they have issued compared to ZM. No surprise.
Now… what does THIS all have to do with the market crashing? Bear with me… you’ll see in a moment.
So now you know about the “EPS” – the Earnings Per Share. The next key metric that you need to know is the “P/E” ratio.
PE Ratio or Price Per Earnings
The PE ratio is the “price per earning,” so you take the stock price and divide it by the earnings per share (the profit) of the company. This PE ratio tells you how much overvalued or undervalued a company is.
Let’s take a look at the PE values of AAPL and ZM.
For AAPL, the PE ratio is 35.79. So this means that the stock is trading at 35x the profits. For ZM, it is a whopping 490!!! The stock price is 490 times the earnings! That’s crazy!
So let’s see what’s normal.
Here’s the PE ratio of the S&P 500 companies.
Right now, it’s 29.24, so almost 30. Apple’s PE ratio is 35, so it’s close to the average of the S&P 500 companies.
But AAPL is a tech stock, and we know that the NASDAQ is the “tech index.” So let’s take a look at the PE Ratio of the NASDAQ.
It’s 26.52 right now.
Wait, what???
I thought everybody was saying that tech stocks are overvalued???
Well, it seems they are in line with the S&P 500, and it’s also in line with its historic averages.
So why is everybody saying that stocks are overvalued right now? And why did the market crash?
Well, there’s a simple explanation. Let’s dive a little bit deeper into the NASDAQ.
There are 100 companies in the NASDAQ Index, and here’s how they are weighted.
As you can see, the Top 7 companies make 50% of the weight of the index.
We already looked at Apple and know that their P/E ratio is at 35 right now, and that’s AFTER the correction. So it’s still higher than the average of 26.52 but not too crazy.
Let’s take a look at the others PE Ratio:
2.) AMZN: 126.
3.) MSFT: 37
4.) FB: 33
5.) GOOGL: 34
6.) GOOG: 35
7.) TSLA: 907
So as you can see, these 7 companies currently account for 50% of the NASDAQ, and are all trading higher than the average, with AMZN and TSLA being crazily overvalued.
And simply put, that’s why the market crashed.
At some point, the big hedge fund guys realized, “Oh man, we have some crazy stocks here in our portfolio! They are overvalued!” And so the big guys are taking some profits off the table and SELLING these heavily overvalued companies.
And if they “only” sell shares of these 7 companies, then it drags the whole Nasdaq down.
So will the market continue to move lower?
Earlier this year, the NASDAQ lost 30%. Can this happen again, or is over after this 10% drop? Well, we had this pandemic, and NOBODY knew how it would affect our economy. So the big guys did what they usually do when there’s uncertainty: SELL and sit on a pile of cash, like Warren Buffet.
But you’re not earning any money on cash. At some point, you need to invest the money again in the market.
And once we had a better idea of how the virus affected our economy, the big guys started buying again.
So if we look at this “flash crash” in September 2020, here’s what happened: The big guys – a.k.a SMART MONEY – noticed that some of the stocks that they purchased went up too much, and they sold them to take profits.
But they can’t sit on the cash for long. They need to earn money, so they invest it again after values are back to normal. And that’s what we are seeing today: It’s called “buying the dip.”
Summary: Why Did The Markets Crash?
You should now be familiar with both EPS (Earnings Per Share) and the PE Ratio (Price Per Earnings).
And you know that the big guys – the smart money – they’re keeping a close eye on these numbers.
If they get too high, then they SELL some stocks and realize a profit, and they buy companies with a lower PE ratio.
And THAT is why the markets crashed for a few days – and why they are bouncing back right now.
EURUSD Trade Analysis, Review, Management, and Week aheadHello everyone:
In this video I went over my recent trade on EURUSD short. What is my analysis behind it, and what is my management plan.
I also explained what I see in EURUSD in the up coming weeks, what are some possible scenarios that we can expect from the market.
In addition, I use this chance to talk about trading personality and style on trade management.
As I exit this trade due to my trading plan and style, I explain my thought process behind it.
I point out that I am happy to secure profits, and exit a trade, then look for more opportunities in later on price actions and structures development.
Its important to know that every traders are different, and there is no right or wrong. Its what suits you as a trader.
As always, feel free to ask me questions or comments.
Thank you
My Go To Setups/Entries in TradingHi everyone:
Many traders have asked me to give a more in depth look into what a typical setup that I would be looking for, what are some possible entries that I will take.
So I figure I will make an educational video and analysis breakdown on a few trades that fits my trading plan, risk management, and trading strategies/style.
I will go over 3 setups/entries that I usually look for in the market. I will explain what I want to see from price action and structures before considering a possible entry.
Entry #1: Double Top/Bottom
-potential double top/bottom on the higher time frame
-corrective structures forming to push price near the area
-enter the breakout or reversal
Entry #2: Continuation Correction
-break of the higher time frame continuation correction structure
-price formed lower time frame corrections
-enter the reversal, breakout, or correction after breakout
Entry #3: Top/Bottom of structure
-price is at the top/bottom of the higher time frame structure
-price form some sort of correctional structures within the larger structure
-enter the breakout, or correction after breakout
As always, feel free to ask me questions and comments.
Thank you
The adventures of leveraged naked ootm option sellersAh the famous "free money" option sellers.
Ah the famous strangle strategy.
Option sellers. Ok.
Naked option sellers. Sooo...?
Way out of the money naked option sellers. Let me think...
Way out of the money strangle naked option sellers. Getting good.
Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers. Oh boy.
Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers That Never Cut Their Losses. Not fair for other Darwin award contestants!.
They have to be doing it on purpose.
A strangle is an absolutely garbage strategy where the writer sells (slightly) out of the money options on both sides.
The maximum profit happens when the price stays between both strike rates. Not going to make a full explanation and a drawing, but what is important is it involves option sellers that take small premiums win very often but are at high to unlimited risk.
The premium basically means that even if the price goes against you a bit you are still in the green. Out of the money means you have even more breathing space before the price gets to a losing area, and then additionally you have the opposite side premium as additional "breathing room", which in all means the price has to move very much for you to even start being worried. But when it goes that far... careful.
Depending on how out of the money the option is the premium can get pretty low... So the option seller won't make alot of money. There is no free lunch.
A summary of those strategy is "Picking up pennies in front of freight trains."
Ok here is a drawing xd
A few people use this, and I know it is taught by Tom Sosnoff that runs a brokerage. You might recognize him in some old documentary & interviews about the 1987 (he was a market maker obligated to buy people bags and "add to loser" and they all were running out of liquidity & had to beg banks for more money so the whole system would not collapse). He is the creator of thinkorswim that he sold to TD Ameritrade for a big bag of money.
He published a video recently where he bashed the robinhood effect where down synd- er I mean young credulous investors (and legends like Portnoy) are getting enabled to gamble on risky & complex products they do not understand. Oh wait no he praised it all, said it was wonderful and a new paradigm. Sad. "Hurray optimism" (until the suicide). Not sure what my opinion of him is right now.
On the long run those strangle work, and ... well I can't say any idiot can do those clearly with all the clowns blowing up ... but it does not require any prediction ability (you are better off if you can predict low volatility thought), it is maybe complex to understand for novices at first but rather "easy".
Someone running such a strategy will often win, and get consistant profits, but the profits are just... small. And funds or individuals using this strategy have to be prepared for big moves that sometimes happen and have a plan to hedge at some point.
Tom Sosnoff tells people to "trade small trade often" (another broker telling people to trade often gee didn't expect that).
Since this strategy makes little profit, fools have a tendancy to use leverage, sometimes alot.
Warren Buffet once said, or more than once, way more, that leverage was the best way to wipe out your wealth.
Especially when mixed with ignorance. He uses leverage himself, but not like this, not like these guys...
The only way I see leverage maybe making sense with those strategies is say you make 1% a year, so you'd put 90% of your money in a mix of equity indices & risk free with low correlation, then use 10 leverage on the remaining 10% that is used to write options, keep risk managed, so then you make 10% on the 10% and if something goes real wrong you have deep pockets, 9 times the amount... Using a bit or even 2-3 times more capital and more leverage too would not even result in getting wiped out for those that did. They REALLY asked for it.
There are plenty of naked option sellers that got wiped out, included hyped or famous ones. Naked selling means you do not own the underlying (so if you never buy until the client exercises his right you will have to first buy the asset at whatever price, or have to buy it from him if he is short potentially at a much higher price than the market price).
James Cordier from OptionSellers dot com, Victor Niederhoffer, Karen Supertrader, LJM Preservation And Growth Fund (HAHAHAHA they have a great sense of humor).
James Cordier used way out of the money options, so it would look something like that:
Wow! We found the holy grail! You cannot lose!
He really got zero sympathy, and even his clients did not get much. They either knew it was risky or did not bother how to even put this they did not even bother looking at was option selling was somehow?
James Cordier was making tiny profits with huge risk, had very high winrates, and because he made little profits he used extreme leverage to get any significant amount out. He is the epitome of the concept "Picking pennies in front of a freight train". They should use his picture in encyclopedias.
Those leverages aren't even poor risk management at that point we reached another stage. Seriously this guy is an absolute psychopath.
Victor Niederhoffer used to be a rather famous fund guy, he worked with Soros, he was rather popular I think he wrote in big journals, probably was on tv regularly. He was "one of the best" making 30% a year for 20 years, famous people held him in high regard, he was sort of a mentor to guys that are famous today. But he missed a few braincells. He sold a big amount of naked puts in 1997 then the market crashed. Rekt. Another "myfxbook" loser. Maybe he was just bad all along and got lucky for 20 long years. Outlier. He probably whine that it was just "20 sigma bad luck". He blew up again 10 years later 😂. Rekt by the trash securities crisis of 2007. Oh ye another "free money one". If you saw the movie "the big short" you might remember scenes where bankers were laughing and partying at the "idiots that bought options against CDO/MBS". He was not a banker himself so Bush did not use taxpayer money to bail him out. He was not unlucky actually, he was very lucky to have lasted 20 years the previous time. Dumb people often have Dunning Kruger...
Karen Supertrader was a random old lady that got into the Sosnoff noob strategy. It is very hard to lose money while keeping it small with that one, so idk I guess this is why he pitches it to complete noobs that would all become day traders and lose their money quickly. Hey they'd just lose their money otherwise, at least here they are making a little. It is true, can't even blame him he is maybe saving noobs. Should just let natural selection do its job just like getting rich slow is actually not slower, helping people is not actually helping.
She was an outlier in a normal distribution, mistook that for greatness, and started a fund managing to get idiots to invest hundreds of million. 150 I think.
She ended up losing if I recall a good 50 million, hide the losses as unrealized (which she rolled over each month and used new positions to offset), while still collecting fees.
I remember seing her interview on how great she was and thinking "ye give it a little while" and then doing some research, and oh ye blew up haha.
Didn't see that coming.
I don't get people brains. If people use certain strategies, it is mathematically impossible, literally impossible, they can get certain returns without taking huge risk or committing fraud. Why is it so hard for the creatures on this planet (especially regulators) to comprehend? It is physically impossible. Proven. This is not economy or climate science where randos come up with their ooga booga opinions and apocalyptic calls, mathematical PROOF means it is true period. Really blows my mind. How are all those mouth breathers even alive?
If a strategy no matter what is contained in Upper Bound Lower Bound and we are outside of the bounds it's not because of divine intervention or a parallel universe. I don't even know how they think. Lmao I crack up when I try to imagine their thought process. It's like the market moves 10% in a month, and someone tells you they simply bought & held, made 60%, and used no leverage. And some people are stupid enough to think this is possible??????????????????????????????????????? Wow.
LJM Preservation And Growth is just the funniest. "Preservation" in the name, then goes to the option selling casino with infinite leverage.
People trusted it blindly because it has preservation in the name? XD Reminds me of some groups in the USA self proclaimed "good guys".
Idiots that fall for this get the karma they deserve.
You can find stories and read about it on the internet it is all over the place. The best bits is how they always find excuses.
The fund came up with "there is no way we could have predicted the 911 attacks". The stupidity of this excuse is really beyond.
I don't even know where to start. Well I don't think I need to explain. They clearly were in the wrong business entirely.
"Oh no there are risks in the business" 😂
One of optionsellers client shared a google doc of his 1 million (in total) portfolio, here it is, it goes from left to right day by day so you can see how the positions evolve and how James Cordier holds onto his losers forever, until death pulls them apart.
docs.google.com
You can find the second to last idea James Cordier published on seeking alpha here:
seekingalpha.com
He got all excited at the "free money" (greed & euphoria) and then sh** his pants (fear), held the bags, blew up. The he was less excited (pain regret sorrow etc).
Emotions -> Emotions -> Emotions. Mistakes -> Mistakes -> Mistakes. Like a baws. And the guy had 20 years experience or so.
His last idea was a short on coffee and he was very right. Should have just went short for real with leverage since he was gambling anyway rather than sell for "only" 1.8 million.
The website has his ideas since 2009.
You know these people I think they just hate losing. He probably was right often enough but I am not going to backtest his ideas got better things to do (got a new zombie game to try haven't been able to play games in weeks because idk they bore me but at the same time I really need a distraction I must be alone having to force myself to play games rather than the other way around).
It is not the case for all of them of course, but I am sure alot would make money without having to use 50 leverage if they just applied their analysis and accepted to take the risks, rather than look for some really stupid trick to always win.
As a speculator you get rewarded for absorbing risk/volatility. Sometimes down sometimes up, but on average more up than down.
How can some people be in the business, and not as market makers or arbitragers or brokers, for 20 or 30 years and still look for "sure thing" strategies and be afraid of taking a loser? Who cares if the portfolio moves a bit in 10 or 20 years the end result is what will matter.
It is clearly not for every one.
They should know better and be prepared for the "big events", but they go pavlov brainwash and emotional and feel good about it, as long as it has not happened they think it won't (and even once it does some don't even learn and think they really fell under the wrath of god and did nothing wrong as demonstrated by Victor Niederhoffer, seriously how dumb is this guy? I don't have a quarck of respect for him.)
If you are able to survive those big events, accept small drawdowns and they do not cause you to make mistakes, you are already ahead of many.
Another obstacle to be making money in this game. When you "have it" it really seems like a no brainer, but yes there really are alot of people unable to climb that obstacle.
Aren't 90% of casual investors bagholders? With "strong hands". So afraid to take a loss. Strong hands ye right, weak chins.
The receding chins are using computers now so they don't piss themselves, but I don't think the computers will be able to do everything, just the small day trading.
If we get to the point computers can go THAT far to predict the future weeks away (not just M5 stat arb etc) we won't even need markets anymore anyway, and we'll be too busy visiting other galaxies xd
Imagine science without all the dogmas and politics. Imagine politics without all the politics. And so on. I ain't worried. My tip to profitable speculators: learn to invest, find a passive income stream, you never know if you'll still be making money in 10 years, but don't be too worried all opportunities just disappear (unless communism).
Yes you never know if it is a pullback or the end, it is easy to look at it in hindsight compared to being in it and think "oh it just goes up".
Locking in a Profit Without Day TradingDay trading can be a quick way to capture intraday profits. However, not all accounts are suitable for day trading or can afford the pattern day trader requirements. If a trader has already completed three day trades in the past five trading days, it leaves them with two options when they have a profit on a newly opened position.
1. Either close the position, take the profit, and trigger a pattern day trade label
or
2. Hold the position until the next day and hope the profit is still there.
There is a third option that locks in a profit while still avoiding a day trade. This is done by legging into a debit spread.
Legging into a Debit Spread
A vertical debit spread is created when an investor buys-to-open (BTO) one option and sells-to-open (STO) another option further OTM. Both legs are opened on the same underlying equity and use the same expiration. However, both legs do not need to be opened at the same time.
An investor can instead buy-to-open (BTO) the long leg first and then setup a sell-to-open (STO) order for another option further OTM. The STO order should be placed for a credit greater than or equal to the debit paid for the BTO leg. This is called legging into a debit spread.
Example:
BTO September 200 put for $10.00 of debit.
Instead of placing a closing order for the 200 put, place an order to STO September 195 put for $10.00 of credit.
When the STO order fills, this will create a September debit spread with a net debit of $0.00. (BTO for $10.00 debit - STO for $10.00 credit = $0.00 net debit)
The risk on the trade is $0.00. The maximum risk, or potential loss, from a vertical debit spread is the net debit (cost basis) of the spread (BTO leg debit minus the STO leg credit).
The potential profit is $5.00. The maximum profit that can be earned from a vertical debit spread is equal to the width of the spread minus the cost of opening the spread.
No further action should be taken on this spread until the next trading day. Even placing a closing order the same day opens up the risk of being filled and tagged with two day trades.
The next market day, a closing order should be placed to STC the entire spread for a credit. This order can be placed in premarket or at market open. Regardless of when the order is placed, it should be worked until the position is closed. When locking in a zero cost basis, the current value of the spread is the profit.
Example:
Holding a legged into debit spread with $0.00 cost basis.
STC the spread for 3.40 of credit.
The spread was BTO for $0.00 and STC for $3.40 resulting in a $3.40 profit.
The total profit on the position is $3.40 per share, or $340 per contract.
Locking in Profits
This strategy can also be used to lock in profits of a position that was initially intended to be held overnight.
An investor BTO a TSLA call based on an upcoming earnings play. TSLA moves 50 points going into market close and the current position has $25 of profit per share. Instead of using a day trade to close the position, STO an adjacent strike to create a debit spread to lock in a profit. Then BTO a new TSLA call to realign the account for the same earnings play.
Example:
7/21 13:15 PM ET TSLA trading at 1560.
BTO Aug 1560 Call for $150 per share.
14:30 PM ET TSLA is now trading at 1610.
The Aug 1560 Call is now worth $175, equaling $25 of profit per share.
STO Aug 1570 Call for $170 per share.
This creates a debit spread with a $20 net credit . BTO for a debit of $150, STO for a credit of $170 = $20 net credit . This is now a debit spread with a credit as the cost basis. Depending on your trading platform, this may be shown as a negative cost basis. This is because it is a credit on a debit spread.
Max risk = $20 profit, no risk on the trade. Locking in a credit is a guaranteed profit on the trade.
Max profit = $30: $20 of credit + $10 of spread width.
BTO the Aug 1605 call for $157 per share. This allows the account to still be setup for an earnings play.
Net risk of the two positions is $157 debit - $20 credit = $137 of risk per share.
Next Market Day:
7/22 9:30 AM ET TSLA gaps open to 1679 due to earnings.
STC the Aug 1560/1570 debit spread for a credit of 6.70.
Total profit on the spread is the $20 net credit + 6.70 of credit to close = $26.70 of profit per share or $2,670 of profit per contract.
STC the Aug 1605 call for $195 credit.
BTO for $157, STC for $195 = $38 profit per share or $3,800 profit per contract.
Total profit is $64.70 on a net risk of $137 = 47.2% return and no day trades used.
Credit on a Debit Spread
In the above example, the stock moved enough for the STO leg to have a higher value than that of the debit paid on the BTO leg. This legging in allowed for a credit cost basis when normally a debit cost basis would be held if both legs had been opened at the same time.
When the credit received on the STO leg is higher than the debit paid on the BTO leg, this creates a credit on the spread. This does not make it a credit spread. It is still a correctly constructed debit spread because the STO leg is further OTM than the BTO leg, but instead of holding a debit and risk on the trade, the position now has a credit, no risk on the trade, and a guaranteed profit
If a debit spread with a credit is held until expiration and expires out of the money, the “loss” on the spread is actually a profit equal to the credit held.
When a strike is OTM at expiration, it no longer has any value to it. It has lost all time value and because it is OTM, it contains no intrinsic (ITM) value.
Example:
The BTO leg for $150 is STC for $0.00 = $150 loss.
The STO leg for $170 is BTC for $0.00 = $170 profit.
$170 profit - $150 loss = $20 profit per share or $2,000 per contract.
If both legs of the debit spread are in the money at expiration, the profit on the spread is equal to the credit held plus the spread width.
When a strike is ITM at expiration, it only contains intrinsic (ITM) value. It has lost all time value.
Example:
AMZN settles at expiration at 1580.
The 1560 call is 20 points ITM.
The 1570 call is 10 points ITM.
The BTO leg for $150 is STC for $20 = $130 loss.
The STO leg for $170 is BTC for $10 = $160 profit.
$160 profit - $130 loss = $30 profit per share or $3,000 per contract.
It is not recommended to hold ITM spreads on American style options until expiration due to risk of assignment/exercise.
American vs European Style Options
Most stocks and ETF’s are American style options. This means that if the buyer of an option chooses to exercise or assign their rights they may do so at any time prior to expiration.
Indexes such as SPX, NDX, and RUT are European style options. This means that any exercise or assignment may only occur at expiration.
Trading spreads on European style options, can alleviate the concern of early exercise/assignment. If both legs are ITM, they can only be exercised or assigned at expiration.
For American style options, the closer to expiration and the further ITM the STO leg is, the more likely it is to be exercised/assigned. This is why building time into the position is beneficial by using an expiration at least 2-3 weeks out.
Additional Information
This strategy works best on long options, BTO a call or BTO a put. It is not recommended to be used to lock in a profit on an existing debit or credit spread.
While you can use this strategy to leg into a credit spread, debit spreads tend to be more efficient as credit spreads rely on rapid time value decay so generally require sooner expirations.
The legging in strategy works with any spread width. However, the larger the spread width the further the underlying will have to move for the STO leg to be at the same value or higher than the cost basis of the BTO leg.
When legging into wide spreads if you can lock in a cost basis less than the current spread value you still have profit potential.
Legging into a debit spread is an efficient way to avoid day trading but still guarantee yourself a position that can be closed the next market day for a profit. As long as the debit spread is not at expiration or extremely far out of the money, the spread should have value to it. A zero cost basis debit spread can be closed for a profit equal to the current value of the spread. While locking in a credit on a debit spread results in a guaranteed profit equal to the credit on the spread plus the current value of the spread.
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an Impulse Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market ?
Hello everyone:
Here is an educational video on how to enter and set SL and potential TP for an impulse move in the market.
I will go over the different entries you can enter to capture the move, and I will also go over Risk Management at the end since it works interrelated with your entries.
3 type of entries to capture an impulse move
(not all of them will happen, but sometimes 1, all, or none)
Reversal: Top/bottom of the continuation structure, candlestick/reversal structure on lower time frame (High Risk, High Reward)
Breakout: Price break out of the continuation structure (Low Risk, Low Reward)
Correction after breakout: Enter in lower time frame (30Min/15Min) continuation correction (Medium Risk, Medium Reward)
Risk Management is important to your entries.
-Your #1 thing is to not lose money. It's not about gaining so much $/% in a month, but learn to control your trades and risk to be successful in the long run.
-15-20 trades per month
-Minimum 3:1 RR on every trade
-Risk 1-2% account per trade
-Understand that, this is my risk management, and how I would approach the market. You would adapt to your own style of trading, and you will then continue to work on this part of the management.
Thank you
Here are a few tips every one should knowHere's a couple of tips from me that might help in your trading. Those are just my opinions and all are belong to me.
Practice think practice think review old ones repeat repeat repeat. It takes a whole lot of thinking and a whole lot of practicing to be good.
Give your brain practice all the time like a muscle, and just repeat over and over. Look at examples, past trades, re-read what to do and what not to, re-read all your rules over and over, not until you know them, until forever or they'll just fade away. The more you hammer it in the better you get.
Be logical DO NOT FOMO AND INSIST (or enjoy lose lose lose and then miss the final move that is a winner).
Mistakes are really expensive. Best to miss out and not force and go look at something else, possibly analyse that one you missed and understand why you missed it, and how to fix, maybe by simplifying the way you detect those.
Spend a whole lot of time analysing markets... Try really hard to really think every trade through... do not waste time on "meh" setups.
Missing out is not that big of a deal imagine you get 10 of those a month, that's 120/year, now imagine you miss out 2/month you still get to 96/year and you had more time to spend on the 96. And you can still learn something from what you missed out on. Better than losing sanity from looking at charts hunting for setups all the time (and ending up forcing trades and bleeding capital).
Price action is not physics.
A "weak uptrend" is really what they call a long bull market that ran over countless bears that are all underwater in much pain, and often it ends up with bears giving up and a massive green candle up.
And same, a "strong uptrend" is what they call price action with no bears. They did not vanish into another dimension, they just are not present in the market right now. But they are around. Which means they could be just around the corner and all jump in at the same time and reverse the price.
In general I think the best is to not go against a "weak" trend ever. What is weak and what is strong enough? That's for you to find out.
If you want to go against a pullback it is generally better to enter on vertical price action.
People when they see violent price action get scared and remove their orders. The opposite is the right thing to do.
Slow price => remove order. Violent price => GOOD, bring it on. Of course you will get run over from time to time.
This is your job as a speculator.
Speaking of weak trends, do not just use a price stop, but also a time stop:
Price just goes nowhere for a long while => Get out.
There is no reason for risk ever to be over 2% , and those are reserved for top stuff. Usually around half a percent is good especially when starting, then it can be scaled as the acc grows and even increased progressively to 1% to get a decent sized account.
If you really are very certain of your strategy and want to go fast and cannot contain yourself then it is perfectly fine ok I understand you can risk more than a small 2% that barely will make you any money who wants to be spending hundreds of hours to make $50 :)
Go for it. Make sure you can not lose more than all of your money, such as with using options or stocks that can only go to zero.
At that point the strategy does not even matter. Also make sure you use alot of money, that you spent years to save up.
And then keep taking trades until you lose everything. You really have to make sure it is very painful and you go into despair and lose all hope.
Trust me when I say with 99% certainty you will really learn your lesson and won't require to learn it again.
You will then not ever want to "go quick" again. 99% efficiency guarenteed. You won't have these stupid urges to risk big.
If your spouse leaves you it is even better. Leaves a scar that won't heal as a permanent reminder.
And consider yourself lucky that you only lost everything.
LONG & SHORT POSITION TOOL📚An In-Depth Look at Using This ToolThis illustration explains the functionality of TradingView's Long/Short Position Tool and is intended to help new people looking for more information on this tool in a "novice friendly" format. TradingView’s position tool will aid you in pre-planning and pre-evaluating trades and as such should be an essential part of every trader's toolkit .
Note:
At its simplest, the position tool can quickly show you the R:R (Risk-To-Reward) of a single trade. By doing a little extra work, you’ll be able to then use this tool to properly plan for the risk of all trades you are taking compared to your total account size.
Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content!
Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣
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Important terms:
Tick = A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in price.
Trade outcome statistics = Used to track the outcome of a trade.
Example:
“Current XYZ position closed
+5.25% gain
10840 account balance after trade impact”
P&L = A representation of current Profit & Loss. Be careful where you position the tool, as the P&L is calculated based on the position of the tool.
Here are two uses for the Position Tool:
1. Only R:R = To quickly find only the R:R of a trade. This method does not bother changing account balance and such is only acceptable if you are tracking your current account balance and doing risk calculations off-platform in something such as a google spreadsheet.
2. Risk+R:R = To ensure your current trade idea meets both your R:R and max risk tolerance (risk amount; in our case, 1%). This is achieved by changing the “Account Size” option every time you are building a new position. This is the advised method to use, since like your trade journal, it’ll help keep you accurate and accountable.
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We will now explain the options contained within the tool’s input on-chart menu:
Account size = The current available balance within your account, the keyword here is available. If you are using the "Risk" option explained below then this needs to be updated upon starting to create a new trade setup.
Risk = Your max tolerable risk amount (either in absolute numbers or as a % of your account size). The default option is "absolute numbers," this uses the base currency of the on chart asset (If you were on ETHBTC, then the base currency would be BTC; for SPX500USD it is USD since this asset is displayed in its USD value). As you know, we suggest you stick to %.
Entry Price = The price you will be entering the position at.
PROFIT LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the profit target.
Price = The take profit price.
STOP LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the stop loss.
Price = The stop losses price.
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We will now explain all metrics being displayed on the tool while it is plotted on the chart:
Top info panel:
1. The difference in base currency (USD) from the entry price to the take profit price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry price to the take profit price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the take profit price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the take profit target is achieved.
Middle info panel:
1. Simulated P&L from the entry price to where the current live price is.
(Displayed in the base currency of the on chart asset, USD in this example)
2. The quantity of the asset that should be purchased at the entry price.
This is calculated as follows: Qty = Risk / (Entry Price – Stop Price)
3. The risk to reward ratio, this is how much you could gain compared to how much you could lose.
The calculation is as follows:
Risk/Reward Ratio = ((Take profit price - Entry price) / (Entry price - Stop loss price))
Bottom info panel:
1. The base currency (USD) difference from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry to the stop-loss price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the stop-loss is hit.
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Lastly, we will explain how Position Size and Account Balance are being calculated by TradingView:
Long Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (EntryPrice - StopPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (ProfitLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
Account Balance when position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (EntryPrice – StopLevel) * Qty
Short Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (StopPrice - EntryPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (EntryPrice - ProfitLevel) * Qty
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (StopLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
AccountSize:
Initial account size specified in the settings
RiskSize:
If the "Risk" option is set to "absolute numbers" = Risk
If the "Risk" option is set to "percentage of account size" = Risk / 100 * AccountSize
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Reference: www.tradingview.com
If we made any mistakes please let us know in the comments. There was a lot of formatting we needed to do to best display all of this information for you guys!
Enjoy. :)
The Stigma of Options Pattern Day TradingIs there a pattern to your trades?
Anyone trading options knows how little effort it takes to build up a healthy volume of transactions. But you should be aware of one rule that could inhibit your ability to trade options too often in a margin account.
In the past, day trading represented the wild west of the market. It was possible for day traders to move in and out of positions within the trading day and end up with no open positions. Margin is calculated as of the ending positions in the trading day; this meant it was possible to trade on large volume with little or no cash at risk, meaning no margin requirements. It also meant huge risks for brokers.
Trading on extreme leverage is attractive, but it is not the only motive for day trading. Many traders believe that the risk of price gaps between today’s close and tomorrow’s open are simply too great; day trading enables traders to close out positions during the trading day, avoiding this risk altogether. Even so, if you want to day trade, you could fall into the definition of a “pattern day trader.”
Entry and exit decisions are based on momentum, chart patterns, and other technical strategies. Whichever strategy employed, the theme to day trading is that positions are opened and closed before the trading day’s end. This problem, at times representing unacceptable risks to brokers as well as to traders, is what led to the enactment of new rules concerning so-called pattern day traders.
By definition, a day trade is when you buy-to-open and sell-to-close or sell-to-open and buy-to-close the same option within the same market day. A pattern day trader is when this action is repeated four or more times within five consecutive trading days using a margin account. If you fall into this definition, you must maintain at least $25,000 in equity balances (cash and securities) in your margin account. This balance has to be on hand before you can continue any day trading. You can also be labeled a pattern day trader by your broker if your broker believes there is a strong likelihood that you will day trade.
One exception: If your day trading is lower than 6% of the total number of trades you make in the five-day period, then you are not considered a pattern day trader. So, high-volume traders can escape the rule under this provision.
Once you have been labeled a pattern day trader, you will need to maintain at least a $25,000 equity value in the account . If your account falls below $25,000, it will be frozen from day trading until the account is restored to the minimum equity requirement of $25,000.
Example of day trading:
8/18 10:10 AM BTO AUG-21 TSLA 1900 Call
8/18 10:50 AM STC AUG-21 TSLA 1900 Call
This is a day trade. The position was opened and closed in the same trading day.
Example of not day trading:
8/17 3:50 PM BTO AUG-21 TSLA 1900 Call
8/18 10:50 AM STC AUG-21 TSLA 1900 Call
This is not a day trade. The position was opened and closed on two different trading days.
Example of Pattern Day Trading:
8/13 Opened and closed an AMZN Put
8/13 Opened and closed a GOOG Call
8/17 Opened and closed a BKNG put
8/18 Opened and closed a TSLA call
This is pattern day trading. There have been four day trades in a five trading day period. Trading days do not include weekends for stock/index/ETF options. If instead of taking the TSLA call on 8/18, the position was day traded on 8/21, this would not have been classified as pattern day trading. This is because the fourth day trade, TSLA, would have been over five business days away from the first day trade on 8/13. See below:
8/13 Opened and closed an AMZN Put
8/13 Opened and closed a GOOG Call
8/17 Opened and closed a BKNG put
8/21 Opened and closed a TSLA call
This is not pattern day trading. Assuming no day trades were placed prior to 8/13.
The pattern day trading requirements is one of those unexpected surprises many traders discover in their margin accounts. The rules are easily understood in hindsight, but unfortunately, they are likely to come to your attention only after you fall into the zone in which they kick in and apply to you.
Individual brokers may have more strict rules regarding pattern day trading. For example, one broker may view the opening and closing of a vertical debit spread as one day trade, while another broker may view the same action as two day trades, since a spread has two different options. It is always important to contact your broker to understand how their day trading rules apply to you and your account. They will also have a record of your current day trades. If it is posted on your platform, make sure you know how to locate the day trade count if you intend to avoid being labeled a pattern day trader and are looking to stay at three day trades or lower in a five trading day period.
How to identify valid, high probability price action structuresHello everyone:
In this educational video, I will go over how to identify valid, high probability price action structures/patterns in any market.
I will go through price action structures/patterns from a multi-time frame analysis point of view, and how using a top down approach will help you to understand how to capitalize on higher time frame price action structures and its impulsive moves.
Understand that, within a higher time frame bullish impulsive move, there will be many lower time frame corrections and impulses to bring up the overall price. That is how the market moves, just in different time frames. So the more structures and patterns we identify within the higher time frame price action and structures, the higher probability the entry setup would be.
The key from this lesson is to understand that structures and patterns can and will appear everywhere in the market, in any time frames. However, not all of them will play out the way they should. So how to “filter” out lower probabilities structures to enter, and how to identify higher probabilities structures for entry.
Thank you
Feel free to ask me questions and comments.
Your guide to success [Beginners start here]***************************
Getting started as a Padawan
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Learn about investing
When you start you should be interested.
There are many ways to learn about investing:
Books/videos/the internet/Losing money trading for the first time.
My first trades (both speculative and not) were Forex, but I really got started "full time" (still had a job at first but spent a good 12 hours a day in this) in Q4 2017 with the crypto bubble. I looked at charts by myself, I also watched hundreds of hours of videos on crypto, technical analysis, price action, markets, I read articles on the internet, I looked at alot of tradingview ideas (where I started to notice herd patterns just like in real life). Being able to filter out the garbage is on you, and you have to check by yourself every thing you learn.
If you can't bother reading or hearing about monetary policies, the economy, charts, risk to reward, probabilities, now is a good time to quit.
Pick markets you like more
The "retail" markets are usually: Indices, stocks (especially us), forex, crypto, hard commodities.
It's ok to go back and forth, and even when you pick say 1 or 2 main markets to look at, you can still take a peak from time to time at other ones, but careful, you only have 1 brain, and you might just end up losing money.
My own experience: Forex (usd, eur, gbp, jpy, mxn, sek, aud, cad, nzd, chf), Commodities (Gold, Oil, NatGas, Copper).
I sometimes look at other markets there might be something interesting and I might get something out: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Silver, Grains.
I am a consistent loser in stocks and indices yikes. Not like slightly below breakeven. No, like 100% losing rate. Hey I got the holy grail.
I dislike USDJPY, I love EURJPY, not sure about some trashpairs such as EURNZD. I like all USD pairs except USDJPY. In the crosses I like AUDCAD EURSEK GBPAUD GBPCAD GBPJPY EURJPY. Some interest in USDCNH sometimes. I look at USDZAR and USDTRY but never touch them.
With time you get your favorites, your best and worse performers.
Learn about that market specifics
You may be shocked but different markets work differently. First of all different hours (fx = 24 hours a day 5 days a week, oil is open 23 hours a day, most cme agri have 2 trading sessions with 3 per-market, stocks trade 8 hours a day with a pre and post market, crypto is 247...).
And then unlike what some people that have never made money say, sorry but they just behave differently. When you learn to trade penny stocks you can't be an all around jack of all trades that will be able to trade dirt in Kyrgyzstan.
As I said I like (certain) forex pairs & commodities, and do best with those, one reason is because they trend on the timeframes I'm best at and prefer. FX trends for days, Stocks trend for months, and so on. The patterns are different, the trends are different, the valuation is different etc. Bitcoin had 3 bull markets, and they all lasted 1-2 years, going straight up, why would anyway look at a 4 hour chart? There is only 1 way to trade Bitcoin in those situation and this is buy and hold. You might have wanted to buy pullbacks and hold for each wave within the bull market in 2017, but that's still several months of holding. First 2 corrections were ok, maybe some multi day or week buy/sell there, the current one is absolutely disgusting except from a straight down in 2018 and straight up in 2019.
Pick a timeframe
I swear every one wants to either be:
- A (lazy) passive investor that will get rich doing nothing, because people told them this is what works and always will (cough cough)
- A (gambler) day trader that will get rich quick making 2% every day (hahaha), because this is how brokers make the most money the fastest
90/90/90 => 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days. This might be a little exagerated but that's the idea.
Brokers know they'll all be gone in a few months so they push to day trade so these losses are as much as possible made via commission, rather than a few big bagholding losers that evaporate into the market in a few weeks.
And as I said, different markets really work on different timeframes. FX (& Gold & Oil & so on) I think the best timeframes are H1 H4 D1, Bitcoin that would be the daily and weekly (during trends), stocks weekly and monthly I suppose (and daily during crashes).
Keep in mind the lower the timeframe, the bigger the spread. If you want to day trade FX well I hope you enjoy having your reward to risk divided by 2. Other than the Dow Jones and Dax indices (and cryptos especially as MM on Bitmex) everything is really expensive to speculate on on very low timeframes.
An exception: Ending markets. Gold in July 2020 when it went parabolic, Oil when it went negative, that sort of things. But why would you want to close a mighty winner at 5 pm and go watch tv when you should be staying in as long as the price is skyrocketing? A few more hours = a few more R.
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Getting ready to make money
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Have fun spending hours on statistics (backtesting)
You heard people tell you what works and what does not. The stuff I hear... It's up to you to check if that 🎪 oversold RSI strategy works, and by looking at charts and taking notes, you will find out that it overwhelmingly does not.
Forget about your dreams of building the perfect mecanical holy grail. You need to know what you are interested in at first (reversals, pullbacks, powerful breaks, buying highs & lows in sideways choppy markets and losing money...) and then look at that, have to start somewhere.
If you try looking at everything then see you in the mental ward in 2 months.
Just find what works, what does not. At least you should have a vague idea of where to enter, odds, etc.
You can't just jump in blindly in anything because CNBC, because "cheap" and then as soon as it goes against you go "wow I have no idea what to expect and what to do" 😆. So typical.
Pick a charting provider
Most frustrate me to no end. I hate them with a passion. Is it that hard to let me freely scale and move my chart around? Really? You can put all those idiotic indicators to make sure day traders are as active as possible and lose as much as possible, but you cannot give us a simple measuring tool? Wow, just wow.
TradingView is really good. I don't see what people could want more. Unless they miss a market idk the Kyrgyzstan stock market maybe, then I would say they have everything on the charting side.
Use good news services
Don't be a Scrooge McDuck and dish out that $24,000 for a yearly bloomberg terminal sub. Did you know they have 325,000 subscribers worldwide?
We're obviously all poor and need to use what little money we have for essentials & risk capital. Under $2.5 million of risk capital I would not even consider it.
You might think "oh no, I want to isolate from the news because hype because I want to not be emotional" or whatever.
Now first of all you're crazy if you do because the hype & emotions are the best part and you are missing out on all the fun.
And as we have seen I myself have a watchlist of 25 fx pairs (10 currencies), 4 commodities, plus a dozen or more other tickers I may be interested in.
You want to only trade the price action, ok. You're actually going to carefully check 30 charts every single day? Wow. And not forget to check several dozen stocks indices etc from other markets regularly and be ready for a big move? Well congratulations rain man.
The media & investor hype tells you what is interesting to watch. And I'm sure it helps your opinion and subconscious mind.
In July the dollar crashed as it should, and accelerated in the second part of the month and then I kept looking for shorts and guess what I kept winning and had a monster month. Gold & silver went up back then but I was too busy, and I did join gold in August when it was past ath and there was some hype and the laggards were starting to buy.
Deposit with a regulated decent broker that suits you
You're all ready. Time to deposit on a good broker and promise yourself this time you won't blow your account. This time it'll work out.
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What you'll be doing for the rest of your life
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Look for ideas, "inspiration"
That's when you look at charts and remember or tag or set an alert on the ones that seem interesting to you.
And that's when the news in general can come in handy. "K what is undervalued" "K what is exploding up I want to join - er I mean fight the trend and get decimated".
Price action or no price action, there is more to this business than just drawing lines on a chart and placing an order based on price action. Much more.
Decide on what you want to see
Say you have an interest in Oil, Gold, and the USDollar. It is required you see something to take action. A strong break followed by a small pullback?
A double top accompanied by mainstreet euphoria, signaling a top?
You are a sniper and you do not just rush to a rooftop and shoot at random passerbys hoping to get your target.
This is what the USA did in the Obama era in Yemen with drones. You are not the USA.
Have a plan before setting an order
You shall NOT jump into something without a plan first, you are not Bud Spencer that punches first asks questions later. This is an order.
The number of times I heard people go "Ok so I bought x. Price is going down. What should I do I have no idea? Please fast!".
I heard, not from personal experience but from others, that even "pros" with at least months in a company, have been spotted asking those questions.
You know who you are. Please don't do this. Hahaha I nearly cry when I think of this, is this a casino "Oh well I just went all in let's see what happens yolo".
Trail your stop, at least bare min
You're at 99% of your target, you're actually going to risk everything for that last little percent?
Even if you don't care about missing out on additional gains, I do not get it. Why?
At least move your stop 1/3 towards target when the price goes past 2/3.
Myself I prefer to have something more evolved, where based on experience and backtested data I know approximately how much it should retrace and how much is 1- too much loss of my gains I am not willing to give away, 2- high probability or sideways or reversal.
Log your last operation (in excel)
Note everything you buy & sell in excel (or you can use something else I don't care I am a libertarian do what you want, except jump in with no plan, I am a german dictator for this, you are not allowed to do this).
This will be very useful. Going to share my own "method", I now have an excel with 3 tabs (alot more with all kinds of stuff in, but let's focus on the 3). 1 Tabs is for "Trends" and I have 8 columns: Date, Ticker, Thing, useless, useless, R, Result (Win Lose Breakeven), Comment. So actually it is 6 not 8. I used to have over a dozen tabs but I gave up, they're not that useful and they're a pain to maintain. In "Thing" I write the "strategy" I used, for the tab "trends" I got 4 choices: Pullback, Pump (actually it's pullback in a pump), FOMO, Downtrend/UptrendFeeling (when I just go in without a clean rule because I want to). Pullback and Pump are the main ones.
So ye, pretty simple. And the specific relevant details I want to note, I note them in Comment. Such as "got stopped at the top and then missed 25R" 😃.
Well in that case it might cause some depression so I'm not sure this is the best idea, but you do not want that happening consistently.
Important: Log the ones you did not take because you were a terrified little coward, and ended up going like a rocket in your direction. Thank me later.
Analyse your past trades
You'd better spend time looking at your past trades. I like to screenshot mine, I got a 25 GB HDD allocated to that. I already used up 10 GB but I also have some backtesting ones.
Check your average R, winrate, look at comments (maybe put the most important ones in red).
You can also on top of this use a broker service some provide analysis data, and also MOAR you can use tradingview where you posted ideas (public or pvt) and see what your thoughts were, and more.
If you took some screenshots with your thoughts at the time, go look at this and wonder what was in your mind to take such a stupid trade amirite?
Do stats on your operations & backtest to confirm
1 step further: After checking your history, and getting an idea of what you were great at and sucked up.
There are 2 reasons you might be good or bad at something: You actually being good or bad at it, and secondly luck.
You want to go backtest dozens of cases to check "ok is this typically good or bad", "wow this pattern sure appears often in this situation".
And then go even further, as we like to say in France "above it is the sun", you are such a natural born speculator that you take all of your worse trades, and go "ok then, I will do the exact opposite".
Revenge trading and fomoing has done so much for me. It made me immensly more profitable (because of so much more opportuinites).
I could not believe my eyes at how often I won and how much R I got through revenge trading and fomoing...
I did it intelligently thought, not a recommendation to go double down on a lousy trade and risk 10% at once.
By revenge trading I hear "taking the opposite side with reasonable size after getting stopped twice". "While cursing".
Combat your addiction to stats
Ye at that point you'll always need validation from the charts & the stats. Feel down? Go make yourself feel good with some stats. Feel good? Go get a high by looking at some good stats. Worried a trade might not work out? Go spend a few hours on stats to reassure yourself.
It can get pretty bad. It can take over. You sometimes might run home in a hurry to get your chart fix. At your job or someone house you will break at the urge and just jump on your phone "just to check that pattern a little bit". Oh wow I just realized I'm not even really joking.
Well at least it is a useful addiction, and you do need to have the most information as possible. But know that you cannot know everything, and if you get paralysis from not being 100% sure then... I guess you are a coward and better quit :D
Mental health is important, as well as being a winner and wanting to do MOAR WHATEVER IT TAKES TO WIN.
This ain't a wagecucking 9 to 5 sit on your *** job. It is one of the most competitive activities in the world and you have to WANT to be the best, to be the best.
You don't even care about the money, you just want to crush the competition and you are unhealthy-ly obssessed with it.
But just as with lifting, sports at pro level, esports (lol), you do not want to suffer overtraining, burnout (lol what is burnout? Sounds like a loser word), or emm going completely bananas (too late for me :/).
With speculative investing, every day is chart day. And news day. And monetary day. And economic lesson day. And...
How about rest days? Yes it is important to know when to rest. Know when you'll get plenty of refreshing rest? WHEN YOU DIE.
Oh well this paragraph did not turn out how I intended it to.
Improve your strats rr or build a new one even
In my opinion the easiest best way to improve performance is to improve the risk to reward.
Prices bounce on levels a certain % of the time. You cannot change that. You cannot make the trend go further more often.
But you can learn what the best areas are, allowing you to slightly improve your stop and enormously your payout.
Imagine you have a 0.25% SL, 1% tgt, and you notice the price always goes a little against you and not a single winner gets very close to your stop. You enter slightly later and have a slightly tighter stop, without being over greedy. SL is now 0.20%. You went from a RR of 4 to 5 with the same WR, this is huge! say with your wr you had an average payout per trade of 1.5 (winners*wr - losers*lr), now it is increased to 2.5! you are 2/3 more profitable. It is not that hard and you increase your profit by so much.
Do not be worried to give up a bit of winrate if it tremendously will increase your payout.
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Emm bonus or something
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Constantly accumulate knowledge
Every single day. In permanence. The more you know the better you'll be. Not to mistake with being drowned in information.
Heard of MOBAS? Over 100 playable character with several different abilities. You cannot know them all at first, but the big nerds that play 10 hours a day end up knowing not only all the abilities, but they also know what all abilities do under other abilities, their effects, the time they take, their mana cost, how the abilities work with different items & builds (these games have magic and physical damage which are different for example, as well as true damage, also magic and armor pen), the interaction with other champions and abilities. It quickly gets overwhelming, there is a huge amount of info, and that's just for 1 video game. If you know LOL you'll have to learn DOTA from scratch, it will go faster that if you were a complete noob, alot of things are similar, but you will have to relearn everything.
NOW IMAGINE THE MARKETS THAT ARE SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE MORE COMPLEX WITH MILLIONS OF PARTICIPANTS AND THE WHOLE WORLD INVOLVED MONETARY POLICIES GEOPOLITICS VARIOUS OPINIONS AND AGENDAS AND THE DOZENS OF MARKETS THE THOUSANDS OF STOCKS AND BONDS ALL HAVE SPECIAL INTERACTIONS AND INFLUENCE EACH OTHER AND IF YOU WANT TO HAVE DECENT OPPORTUNITIES YOU NEED A WATCHLIST OF MAYBE AT LEAST 10 GAMES (TICKERS) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 💥.
You don't have to be smart to do well they say, oh yes of course, memorising and understanding the thousands of patterns, the billions of interactions, the billions of trillions of variables, and DYNAMIC probabilities in a highly complex highly abstract activity with non stop conflicting info, dogmas every one believe in that go against the truth, disinformation, competing with the best in the world, does not require any intelligence at all, sure, makes a lot of sense.
Intelligence is far from being sufficient, yes this is very true. It does not mean it is not sufficient lol imagine not being able to tell the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions and trying to give advice to people we found out why these guys sell hopium courses to new traders 🤣
Work on psychological failures
Anger is a sign of weakness. Regret is a sign of weakness. Fear is a sign of weakness. And the weak shall fear the strong.
Obstacles are designed to make you stronger, only the weak avoid them. And the gods have no obstacles.
Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot sleep because of your stock market position (you are weak), then you have gone too far. Reduce your positions to the sleeping level."
Man is oftentimes weak-minded enough to be caught in the snare of greed and heneyed words.
Listen to Gandhi, best warrior in India (am I allowed to say this was his caste or is it unwoke? xd), he won a war without fighting. Don't get greedy & keep a rational mind as opposed to trading throught feeling because someone said "the price will collapse" and it scared you.
Giving up is not a sign of weakness but a sign of strength.
To know that you can't win a particular battle is wisdom.
=> Very important. Are you a genius like Napoleon that retreated from Russia, or an idiot politician that thinks he knows warfare like Hitler that insisted and led to millions of dead and lost WW2?
Do not short Tesla you cannot win (well actually now shorts got wiped out maybe it is possible but I'd wait for a downtrend).
Cut your losses what is the point of holding bags? Swag?
Don't try to defeat the market and don't get married to any commodity or idea.
Fail, lose money, and quit
Hey this can happen too. How many is it? 90%?
Day traders are overrepresented here.
According to fxcm data traders that had a reward equal or greater than 1 times their risk were making money at 53% (over 1 year in 2014-2015), versus traders with a RR under 1 (but why? xd) of which only 17% were profitable.
The people that made most money were those the less leverages, while big size "get rich quick" clowns got absolutely wiped out.
They do not show data for day traders versus long term ones, they're a broker they make money off commissions so they won't show this UNLESS it shows day traders making more, so you just know they're the ones getting decimated the most and the longer term ones are the ones cleaning house. It is a certainty.
I've looked at plenty other data and you had such numbers, with over 1 year 83% people losing money, 88% over 2 years, 94% over 5 years, and so on (it tops logarithmically of course).
People smart enough to trade with high (but not greedy huge) reward to risk, and on higher timeframes, are the ones doing best.
So it's not all that bad, if you put in the hours and have a working brain (intelligence is important I said but you don't need to be an absolute genius to just be in the green).
It's clearly possible.
Making money does not mean making millions!
It does not even mean outperforming the SnP.
It does not even mean outperforming inflation.
Few people outperform the SnP.
Alot manage to make some money but not enough for it to be a viable business.
But even if people end up quitting they did not waste their time, they learned a valuable lesson: Do not try to stand up to MrRenev.
Nah I'm just messing around.
Even if one does not outperform the SnP, he can use what he learned to:
- Continue trading short term for diversification & to reduce portfolio volatility
- Not miss out on generational moves (USO, Oil contango, Gold, Bitcoin...)
- Use knowledge to manage risk or whatever
- Use a fraction of their net worth to speculate with large size (but not casino large) to have more volatility and more returns
- And plenty more... consolation prizes
SuperTrail Indicator Video / Trailing Stop LossWas just playing around with the replay function in Trading View and thought I'd share this to show how the SuperTrail indicator worked on a couple of different stocks.
The SuperTrail is basically a modified SuperTrend but instead uses a percentage to allow you to manually set the trail level for individual stocks. Some need a wider trail, some a smaller one. You might set a trail based on the last months range, or the last 3 months. Totally up to you and the stock itself. The idea is to find what I call the natural range of a stock based on its past behaviour and hope that the stock maintains this range into the future. You can of course simply adjust it from time to time as the stock and the market goes through different behaviours (eg bull or bear), reacting to good or bad company news etc.
I use the percentage value that I come up with to set as my stop loss / trailing stop with my broker. This way if the stock drops below the trail value (which automatically moves up as the stock price moves up, but never down if the stock goes down), the stock will automatically sell and I will hopefully bank any profits. Works best of course with trending stocks. You could use the buy signal to go long and the sell signal to short. Main thing for me is I don't have to sit and watch the market and worry how my shares are going. If one is starting to go the wrong way, I automatically get out. Completely up to you how you use it. It is a very simple system :)
If you want to see more examples, just have a look at my profile, and if you would like access to the script, just message me and I'll send you the details.
What is a Trading Plan? and what to include in there? Hello everyone:
Here I make a video on my take on what a trading plan is, and how it will help you to become a better, consistent trader over time.
I will include the general topic on what is in my current trading plan, and what works for me to include in them.
The general topics I have in my trading plan:
Personal Goals, Mindset, Changes
Trading Checklist
Trading Quotes to reflect on
Trading Past experiences, mistakes, and lessons
Trade Enter Criteria: Go-To-Setups
Trade Management
As always, feel free to ask me questions and comments.
Thank you
Which method is the most profitable?Same strategy. 4 options on how to manage trades.
Can use anything from a really tight stop and win very often but small to a very wide one and rarely win but win big.
Which method really makes the most money?
Let's look at the numbers after 100 trades:
Strat 1 with a ridiculous winrate and profit factor
=> 1 RR 95 Wins 5 Losses => Get 90R out!
Strat 2 with very high winrate and profit factor
=> 2 RR 80 Wins 20 Losses => 160 - 20 = 140!
Strat 3 with a 50/50 winrate and high PF & RR
=> 4 RR 50 Wins 50 Losses => 200 - 50 = 150R!
I think you see where this is going...
Strat 4 with a rather low 1/3 winrate and high PF & very high RR
=> 8 RR 33 Wins 67 Losses => 264 - 67 = 197R / 200R!
If you picked the one with the highest risk-to-reward as the most profitable congratulations, you fell for the bait :D Tihi
Strat 5 with a very low winrate no one wants and ordinary PF
=> 16 RR 16 Wins 84 Losses => 256 - 84 = 172R
The best strategy is the one that makes the most profit over the years, with the least risk. Another factor is how long it takes.
Every market has its specificities.
In the world of forex which is my specialty the realistic risk to rewards we get are in the 3 to 7 area.
Less than 3 is not that great, and above 7 does not happen without big pullbacks (that take time).
A reward to risk of above 10 is really not realistic.
With crypto and stocks maybe, but with Forex no.
With FX the time scale I prefer and think is best is 2 days to 2 weeks. The best moves with least noise happen on this one.
Crypto and stocks holding times are also much longer (you could get 20 to 50R or even more with BTC in 2016-2017 but it's a holding period not of a couple of days no it's a couple of months instead).
Commodities (Oil Gold Metals Grains) are close to FX I think.
Of course as with everything else the best risk-to-reward and TF is the one you do best with.
Typical FX strong moves:
What day traders and signal providers do:
And that's a really wide stop... Can you imagine?
It's so stupid to day trade for so many reasons xd
Horrible trends with big pullbacks, missing out on big wins,
noise all the time, wasting one's time, gambling what will happen during a few hours, awful risk to rewards no matter what, a small spread decimates them. Lmao.
Bitcoin. You won't get much out of Bitcoin swingtrading (and day trading is a joke)
And then stocks
And then Warren Buffet
If you bought Ko with 10% of your money and risked 3.3%
You can still trade with 96.7% (can use leverage to pretend it is 100%), and in 10 years you get a profit of 115% + dividends.
Pretty nice!
I don't think trading stocks for a few days or weeks makes sense with all the gaps there are, even if you participate in pre and post markets it still gaps alot between them.
Once a decade stocks go absolutely vertical
George Soros said it's not about how often you win, it's about how much you make when you win.
Strat 1 "always win I am a legend" (I doubt anyone wins that often with a RR of 1) => 90R
Strat 4 (PF of 4) => 200R (about twice as much)
And if you risk 1% each time?
Strat 1 = 144.7% profit
Strat 4 = 546% profit xd Not twice as much. Lots as much!
GG
Compare strat 2 & 4
Strat 2 80% WR & RR 2 After 100 trades we make 140 R
Strat 3 50% WR & RR 4 After 100 trades we make 150 R / 7% more
1% risk =>
Strat 2 = 299% profit (twice as much as 1 btw)
Strat 3 = 330% profit / 10% more
One more reason higher RR is better.
This does not mean one should be obssessed with it and then get stopped all the time and blow up.
It's just that first start with whatever strategy and it's ok to have a RR of 1.5 to 2 maybe, and then when improving it over time the most important goal is to try and increase the payout.
Increasing the winrate is harder and pays less. If possible ok but not the main focus.
Nothing increases profit more than improving the RR.
And keep in mind while trailing a stop you are doing the same as if you closed your trade and are opening a new one (so if the stop is very wide it is like having a poor risk to reward on a new trade).