Stopped Out - Is It Okay To Re-Enter?Hi Traders, welcome back to another workshop. I believe this is a very common struggle within our community as a Trader. Often when you take a loss on a particular setup, the urge of getting back into the market is intense, and that's human psychology.
Do you realized how focused and how biased you are when you are hunting for a specific setup?
- Get stopped out once, you'd still take it because it doesn't do any damage to your account
- Get stopped out twice, you'd still arguably take it because you allow yourself for a re-entry
- Get stopped out thrice, now your emotion is taking over your rational behaviour. Now all you're focusing is either "How can i make my money back?!" or "I MUST be correct" or "This cannot be ..."
Familiar?
Remember, trading is not so much about Yes or No. It's all about measuring the Risk-to-Reward VS Probability of Success. If a setup is so valuable that you cannot afford to miss it (assume it passed through your trade evaluation process), feel free to take it again and again. But if you're trading the P&L, then i'd suggest you to only allow yourself a maximum of 2 chance entries, meaning that if you're getting stopped out twice in a row in a similar setup, you should probably get some rest or trade the other markets.
Most of the time, when a trader gets stop out multiple times in a row trading a similar setup, the emotion kicks in. Now their trading lens is no longer focusing on finding the best setups, but rather 'this must be it'. That's also how the over-trading and revenge trading behaviour pops out.
Let me know your thoughts below.
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Risk Management
Study the Logic Behind Price Patterns, Not by Memorizing!Hi Traders, I won't be doing any particular market breakdown today as I don't see any great opportunity around. But here's some gems to share. In the previous few analysis, I've been talking about the potential failures on UJ everytime price attempt to break above 115. If you've not watched the previous UJ analysis OR in case if you couldn't find it, I'll link it down below for your convenience, make sure you watch it.
In my market breakdown videos, I often talk about continuation pattern. In yesterday's UJ breakdown, this was exactly what I was talking about, a continuation pattern. Price had a strong drive/ momentum into one direction (in this case bearish momentum), formed a tight consolidation giving us more information that sellers are attempting to squeeze price lower. This kind of flag-type pattern simply tells you how one side is bullying the opposition, eventually leads to further continuation into the initial direction.
For whatever instruments you're trading, it'd still fall back to Price Action. Understanding the psychology behind candlestick movement is what's going to make you profits, not by blindly memorizing strategies or patterns.
See you tomorrow for more breakdowns!
Trade safe and manage your risk!
HOW PROFITABLE TRADING LOOKS LIKE ? (EDUCATION)Hello traders, I'm making this post in order to help the community, most of you focus to much in technical analysis but let's take back to basics a put things clear.
Before continuing reading make sure to give a like this will help the community use proper risk management.
Let's talk about simple math : This is simply a conceptual series of 10
trades, taken one after the other from abeginner perspective let's us act as a beginner: if at the beginning you risk more than expected then it will take you a lot of work to recover from that DD%. Make sure to have a proper risk modelling and follow the rules to survive. New traders execute trades with certainties
" this loos good"
"I will risk more"
“ I can’t lose in this trade “
"I will risk more in this
one because I need to recover my
previous loss" .
"I lost the previous one i
will risk less"
Here is where the problem occurs:
When you modify parameters in your risk
modeling it will have a strong impact in
the outcome.
This example was clear. Our dear Mr amateur risked more in the first trade end up losing more ( uncontrolled loss) , then took another normal loss , after that he has two winning trades but guess what? Mr emotional become greedy and risk more after having two profitables trades and guess what ? He just distributed all the money back. See how his biggest loses come after the biggest wins . After that big loss mr amateur is scarred to pull the trigger and of course he cut winners very quickly because he’s afraid to distribute back . Well for him trading becomes a nightmare . Markers are consuming his pocket and soul .
Now Let us say for example that you took
10 trades with proper risk management ? With a probabilistic approach?
the outcome is totally different. And guess what there is no magic trick . Profitable trading is a unemotional risk manager game , Chose wisely .
Here is where the solution is :
EVERY TRADE IS UNIQUE , ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
MANAGE YOUR EXPOSURE OR YOU WILL HAVE NOTHING LEFT TO MANAGE.
PRO traders understand that in order to have results they must adopt a series per trade approach
Please do follow and comment your thoughts. let me know in the comment section what do you think about it .
Forex Signals Providers - Scam? Points you should keep an eye onForex Signals Providers - Scam? Points you should keep an eye on before buying.
Points:
- Trading Strategy
- Trade Management / Timing
- Risk Management / Risk Rewards
- Broker
- Result
Trading Strategy:
Well we never know what these traders are really doing. We may see the analysis but we do not have their rules (Trading Plan). So you would need to understand their Price Action Confirmation and many more. How to act in certain scenarios and which is the best approach in these scenarios in order to get the maximum out of it. As we all know forex is a business of probabilities. With the right approach we can minimize our losses and maximize our wins. This part is completely missing. When price hits SL you do not know why and how to take the counter trade or when you can simply reenter. This is the procedure of evaluation.
Trade Management/Timing:
We need to catch every single trade in order to make the same profit like them. This may be very difficult. Especially if you are working at your 9-5 job. Signals may be better for full time traders. But full time traders do not need Signals obviously.
You can not make time management as you are depending to your Signal Provider. At the end it will be necessary to take it as a 9-5job. Otherwise you will miss too many trades. This should not be your approach as a trader. You need to only attach in certain scenarios this is how you ensure high concentration and you can increase your win rate.
Risk Management / Risk Rewards:
Here I see the biggest problem. The majority provider use multiple TP Take Profit Levels like TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4. This does not work properly. It is simply an illusion that they make so much percentage. The only thing what they do is pips. But not the real ROI. This is what will gain you the percentages on your trading account and not pips. Of course there is a Risk Management system with pips but there you have big disadvantages as you can not scale your wins. With a percentage method you minimize your risk/losses and you maximize your wins to the fullest.
Broker:
Every broker has different spreads. Therefore you may not get involved in some positions or you will get stopped out. This point is only important for Signal Services where the SL are super tight.
Result:
Here the majority are just faking and they are claiming big results. So you need to check it. This is very difficult. You need here proven results. When they will show you their 6th Tp level hit then you know that this Channel is just giving you unreal results
Recommendation:
What I suggest is to learn Forex by yourself and from others that are already there where you want to be. Join a community with the same goal. The community should not be too big. Otherwise it will be difficult to interact and also the mentors can not really help you individually.
You need to commit yourself for at least 3years nonstop in order to really understand how this business works. It is like in any other business or 9to5 job. You will not just start from the beginning and you will understand everything. No you go to the school, seminars, ....
It will just take time my friends. But I promise you with CONSISTENCY you will reach it.
"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime"
This is my approach for this industry.
WHY 95% OF TRADERS FAIL | Top 6 Mistakes to Avoid 🙅♂️🙅♀️
Hey traders,
That is the absolute fact:
95% of traders will fail.
Working with hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the world, studying their trades & following their reasoning I found a lot of commonalities. In this post, we will discuss the top 6 mistakes to avoid to succeed in trading.
🤖 Rather than studying the market structure, rather than learning price action, many traders are looking for a "secret indicator". The one that will accurately indicate when to buy or sell the market.
Failing to find the one, they start looking for a set of indicators giving them magic profit formula. At some stage, they stop analyzing the chart at all. They become obsessed with the indicators.
Remember, naked chart analysis always goes first.
The indicator is the tool in your toolbox that is applied as one of the confirmations.
💫 The expectations & mindset play a very important role here as well.
Many people come in trading with a desire to become rich quick. To buy a subscription to some signal service promising them thousands of pips monthly and quite their 9:5 job.
Or to watch a couple of educational videos about trading and after a couple of days of practicing become a whale of Wallstreet making thousands of dollars with a single trade.
Such a mindset is completely wrong. Instead, you must realize that trading is extremely hard. It will take many years and a lot of blown trading accounts before you get how to trade properly.
Moreover, even once you mature, you won't make millions of dollars. Professional trading is simply about winning slightly more than you lose and then living on a margin.
📉 Poor risk management is the primary reason for blown trading accounts. And here I am not talking about some "advanced" risk management techniques.
Many traders simply trade with oversized lots.
Having high leverage & 1000$ deposit at hand the one can simply open a trading position with 1 standard lot and be kicked in by a spread.
Or they open a trading position without a stop loss. Being wrong in their predictions instead of closing a losing position they keep holding it. And while the market keeps going against them they pray the God for a market reversal. At some moment they get the margin call.
You must learn to calculate a lot size for all your trades. Instead of risking a huge portion of your trading account, learn to set a stop loss and risk no more than 1% of your deposit.
📝 Lastly, discipline plays a crucial role in your success in trading. Once you developed a trading strategy & backtested that you must learn to follow its rules no matter what. Usually, once traders catch a losing streak they start changing their rules, they start adjusting their trading strategy. Remember that losses are inevitable. The only correct way to stay afloat is to be consistent and don't break the rules.
Avoiding these common mistakes your chances to succeed in trading will increase dramatically. I wish you be among 5% of traders who made it.
Did you make these mistakes?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Trade Entries VS Trade Exits - Do you still make these mistakes?Hi Traders, welcome back to another workshop. In today's workshop, I will be discussing the importance of taking of both Trade Entries and Trade Exits.
Most traders put way too much attention into spotting the specific entry level. But the truth is, closing out a good position at the right time and at the right price make you money. You can have the best strategy and best entry, but if you don't know how to exit, you'd still end up losing money.
Why majority focus so much on trade entries?
Simply because the feeling of catching tops & bottoms give them a sense of gratification and achievement.
Trading isn't about feeling good, it certainly isn't about ego. It's all about how can you organize your mind to control its performance, so you're consistently extracting profits from the markets, by doing the right thing.
Stop aiming for profits, start focusing on the process.
Do the right thing. Again, and again. That's how you make money from whatever you're doing in life.
Comment down below what's your best and worst positions.
Share with anyone you think he/she should be watching this.
Melody.Finance is a smart contract-based investment Dapp writtenSince its launch in September 2020 as a parallel platform by Binance, Binance Smart Chain (BSC) has been making its presence felt in multiple financial technology markets.
With its low transaction fees, fast processing speeds, and compatibility with Ethereum Virtual Machine, it is offering an unbeatable user experience to NFT, Dapp, and DeFi developers.
Taking all these attributes into account, BSC has revolutionized trading through its exchange with new and exciting Dapps getting launched every day.
Melody.Finance is a yield farming Dapp on BSC. The goal is to make the most of the Binance Smart Chain without having to spend too much time and/or resources.
What is Melody.Finance?
Melody.Finance is a smart contract-based investment Dapp written on the Binance Smart Chain. It became live in early November 2021 and since then, it has seen drastic growth.
Benefitting from Melody.Finance
Melody.Finance lets the investors generate stable daily returns from 7.8% to 17% on their investment. To get started, the smart contract offers the opportunity to invest as little as 0.001 BNB.
The investors can withdraw the generated BNB at any time from their Dapp.
Highlights
Following are the key features of Melody.Finance:
Strong security: The safety of the smart contract comes first and foremost, and Melody.Finance has been audited by HazeCrypto. No vulnerabilities, backdoors, or scam scripts were found in the Melody.Finance Smart Contract.
High ROI: With radical growth since its inception, Melody.Finance is on its journey to becoming one of the highest ROI programs amongst the yield farms on BSC.
Between the deposit period of 7 and 30 days, the investors can get a 119% to 239% return on their investment. The longer the deposit period, the bigger the reward.
Referral Program
Melody.Finance pays an 11.5% commission over 5 levels of referral programs. The investors can share their referral links and allow their friends to join in while making additional profits.
Closing Thoughts
Melody.Finance is grabbing a lot of attention in the crypto industry given its clean and simple interface, and easy functionality.
The smart contract has been experiencing constant growth in terms of user base with its attractive returns and referral levels that offer a wide scope of earnings to its investors.
To get more information about melody.finance, head to their website.
Emotional Control in InvestmentWarren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when the market is fearful, be fearful when the market is greedy.” Knowing fear and greed in investing is therefore a good thing.
Our ancestors in the past, thanks to fear, knew how to run away from predators so as not to be killed. And also because of greedier than other animals, people know how to cultivate, store food, and then build a prosperous society like today.
However, it is no coincidence that the EQ index argues that the more able a person is to control his emotions, the more likely he is to succeed in life. The same is true in stock investing. Even the skill of mastering emotions is also put on the top by experts, which is a decisive factor in winning - losing, gaining - losing.
So what should we do to control emotions in investing, so that the actions of "fear" and "greed" appear at the right time and in the right place?
How do emotions affect investment decisions?
Let's analyze the characteristics of an investor's work. Every day, when the stock market opens, we begin to sit in front of a price list, with the numbers flashing green and red and changing every second, every minute.
Looking at the boring price list, we turn our eyes to other investors, groups - group chats on social networks, to see what people are buying, selling, what is the target price, holding this code or that code for a while. How long,... Then when the price list was off, even the night had fallen, we were still thinking, lost in the discussion and analysis.
And emotional trading also emerges from here. For example, if we are happy, we are blind to the risks. If we are afraid, we miss good opportunities. If we're angry, we're willing to take great risks to try to undo the consequences (revenge trading).
Living in that variable environment, if we do not have enough bravery and knowledge, it is easy to buy and sell irrationally and lack discipline. And so the account also "exploded" itself.
If we do not have enough bravery and knowledge, it is easy to trade irrationally and lack discipline.
How to control emotions in investing?
Shaping an investment method for yourself
When investing in stocks, in many cases, you have to make decisions continuously, and you have to decide quickly. But to make quick and accurate decisions, it is necessary to analyze and process information, set investment goals, plan allocations, etc. There is a lot of work to do, to make a decision. good.
To make things simpler, you need to have an investment system, or investment method. This helps you to perform actions according to a pre-programmed logic sequence. It will be the directional compass, so that every time you need to make a decision, you just need to check the conditions of the system and follow it.
For example, you can stick to a periodic investment plan (SIP - Systematic investment plan). By continuously investing small amounts, you take advantage of long-term cost averaging (DCA). Thanks to the habit of investing periodically over a long period of time in familiar assets, you will be more prudent in risky speculative decisions.
Have yourself an investment system that helps you perform actions according to a pre-programmed logic sequence
Building investment knowledge
After reading the above idea, many of you will probably think: "I don't know anything about investing, how can I build my own investment method?" That leads to the second element that you need to focus on developing, which is building investment knowledge.
Referring to investment knowledge, you will probably think of PE, EPS, valuation methods, ... (if according to fundamental analysis), or MA, RSI, technical indicators, wave counting ,... (if according to technical analysis).
This is not wrong, but if you don't look at the investment method, the above knowledge can become a fragment of knowledge. Such knowledge must be systematized from the perspective of a specific investment method and way of thinking. You can find these knowledge in the section
To make things easier, you can look to investment advisors, brokers, even fund managers who you know for sure have their own investment systems.
However, when receiving investment advice, no matter what method it is, be sure to learn from an expert the important components of an investment method:
Clear, objective (non-emotional) logic to make buying/selling decisions.
Investment history follows the above logic, applied in Vietnam market.
Principles of portfolio allocation, appropriate investment size.
Risk management principles should clearly state what we will do when a risk occurs.
In addition, investment knowledge is not only professional knowledge but also general understanding. For example, you should know in advance that no method is all-encompassing; a potentially high-return opportunity also carries a high degree of risk; It's not like businesses and the whole economy can grow by tens of percent per year, but you just invested in stocks and want to earn 5 times 10 times,...
Don't stand on this mountain looking at that mountain
16 years of experience in the stock market gives me the opportunity to meet a lot of people. Many of my clients confided to me: “I just need to make a steady profit of a few dozen percent per year.”
However, they weren't happy when they only held a 35% increase, while a certain X doubled. But there are also lucky people, who bought the correct X code and doubled it, but still regretted: "If I know that, I will buy more".
In this case, instead of comparing the actual profit with the original target, they compare it with someone else's profit, or the profit it could have been. No matter how much they say, they will have a reason to regret anyway.
The solution to not falling into this situation is to return to your own investment goals and methods. If this still isn't strong enough, try linking that goal to the important things in your life.
In software development, there is a concept called user story, written in the format: “Is…, I want… to……”. I love this style of writing because it focuses on the subject and the goal.
Applying investment, for example, we can write the following: “As a father, I want to invest to have money for my daughter to study abroad at the age of 18.” I believe if you always remember this , you will be less emotional, less reckless and stick to your investment plan more, because you know this determines your daughter's future.As a father, you cannot bring your child's future to life. can bet.
As another example, we could write: “As the breadwinner of the family, I want to invest to have a sustainable passive income source, so that my family doesn't have to worry about finances when I get old.” If you develop If you can express this, you must have remembered your responsibilities, your goal of financial peace of mind.Emotional decisions make you insecure, so there is no chance to dominate.
Enjoy the emotions of investing in a controlled manner.
Conclude
Having emotions is a natural mechanism of all living things, including humans. Therefore, if emotions become too dominant, we should not reject them to the extreme, but should only moderate and control them to an appropriate intensity to facilitate work.
Experiencing the emotions of investing is like climbing to the top of Fansipan. Climbing to the top may not be fun, if we don't experience the cold, the slippery pain when climbing the slope, the times we have to struggle with the mud, we have to swing into each bamboo grove to go.
Investment is similar. Accept and enjoy emotions, but don't let them hinder us from reaching our destination, let them overwhelm our goals, and erase our motivation.
Betting mindset in investmentInvesting is an activity that always comes with risks. Every time we have to think about a fixed investment, sooner or later we have to ask ourselves what are the risks associated with this investment? Investing is an environment where the certainty of the future is purely a product of the imagination, but unfortunately this is the product that is being sold most to the inexperienced class of investors who are just starting out. learn about the market. It is not difficult for us to come across many stock investment courses online that promise to give investors the formula to beat the market, technical tools that always guarantee profitability, or simply the best words. the bullshit of the brokers' heads.
In investing, as in life, there is nothing an investor can do that can give a sense of certainty that the end result will be what you want, uncertainty in the future will always be a constant. Numbers never change, especially in the investment environment, and investors have no choice but to learn to accept this fact. Therefore, once imbued with this principle, smart investors will also know that the most reliable fraud warning signal in investment is the opposite of the above truth - the promise to guarantee profits. profits in the future. In multi-level language, it is a commitment of X% profit in a fixed period of time Y. Every time you hear the four words "profit commitment" from someone who is talking nonsense about an investment project, you better hold your wallet tightly
Because the future is always associated with uncertainty, learning how to deal with uncertainty in investing is learning how to think probabilistically in the most objective way. In other words, the most famous investors in the world are basically people who think like professional Poker players!
How to properly receive new information?
Thomas Bayes was an English pastor who lived in the early 18th century. For those who have specialized in statistical probability or machine learning, Bayes is not an unfamiliar name - he is the father to of today's famous Bayes theorem. In Nate Silver's famous book Signal and noises, the author gives a perfect example of how to think in the Bayesian style:
Let's assume that there is a man who has just been given life in a world of which he has no knowledge at all. Seeing the sun rise for the first time in his life, he screamed in panic and sought refuge from its sunlight. He didn't know if this "sunrise" phenomenon was normal or just a madness in the world. However, day by day when he saw the sunrise, he became more and more certain that this was a constant phenomenon, not a coincidence. The first day when he saw the sunrise, he was not sure if the sun would be seen again tomorrow. However, this probability number will gradually increase (but will never reach 100%) with the number of days in the future he continues to see the sun rise.
Bayes' theorem is very simple: when we make a prediction about the probability of something happening in the future, it is a never-ending process where the number of probabilities is continuously updated with each Every time a new piece of data comes in, we have to change our prediction. We never start this number with 0% or 100% because Bayesian thinking doesn't allow you to say something will or will never happen. Bayesian thinking is a constantly evolving system, with each new data update bringing our probabilistic predictions closer and closer to the Truth.
Bayes' theorem is an assertion that all we know about the future is a guess based on probability, and this number will never be fixed but will always change over time as new information becomes available. appears to force us to update our conjecture. In the ironic way we often hear, one thing for sure about the future is that nothing is certain. Bayesian thinking forces us to admit that our understanding of the world is very shallow, and that we are constantly updating information in the hope that our numbers come closer and closer to Accuracy (but it will never 100%). To do this, we must first admit to ourselves that we are not really sure about anything in the future. To get closer and closer to the Truth, open-minded thinking is essential, and confirmation bias is a dangerous enemy that needs to be eliminated.
Consciously or unconsciously, professional poker players and investors alike employ the best of Bayesian thinking in their work. They always think about possible future events as probabilistic numbers, constantly update this number with new data in real time, and are ready to bet big when the probability is extremely beneficial to itself. Like playing Poker, smart investors are always ready to bet big when the odds of winning are very high, although this number has never reached 100%.
Similarities Between Investing and Poker
Legendary Poker player Doyle Brunson, who is known as the Godfather of Poker, once said a sentence that changed the entire opinion of the writer in the early days of participating in this game:
Poker is not just a game of winning or losing. Basically, Poker is the art of making the most accurate decisions in any uncertain situation. You have to know when to bet more, when to discard, and when to All-in.
Like all novice players when learning about Poker, the writer only thinks about Poker purely through the lens of winning money or losing money without looking into other aspects of the game. Most new poker players think that Poker is just gambling and that the ultimate aim of this game is to try to win as much money as possible. In fact, the above goal is not necessarily wrong, but if you focus on pure winning and losing, the player's skills can never develop to new heights. Poker is a sport where skill and luck both play a role in determining the final outcome of the player, and the player's skill is always proportional to the efficiency of the final decision-making process. in the entire game. Most realistically, the highest level of poker players are always the ones who are able to make the most accurate decisions in extremely uncertain situations. What is the best decision in uncertain situations? The simple answer is that decisions are based purely on probabilities of what might happen in the future.
In Poker, a hand can play out in many different ways with different proportions of probability, and so a player's skill is shown when they are most likely to sniff correctly. whether the probability is in your favor or not. To put it simply, every time a player places chips on the table, the true essence of that bet is a decision about a possible future scenario in the hand. The higher a player's confidence in the prospect of the future in their favor, the higher the stakes will be. In other words, the number of bets represents the player's level of confidence in the possible outcome of the hand (the writer does not include the case of bluffing, that is a completely different category of Poker). ). The more confident players are in their ability to win in the future, the more willing they are to bet big. And so the player who is able to estimate his probability of winning most accurately, the more optimal the final decision-making process.
However, professional Poker players are also wise enough to understand that 80% win rate also means 20% lose rate, on average they will have 4 wins for every 5 hands of the same hand. and lost 1 time. And if the other 20% happens to lead to the loss of their bets, they don't really care about it, they basically understand that they made the correct decision but luck smiled. smile at your opponent. Professional Poker players fully accept the uncertainty of the game, they understand that even if they can make all the correct decisions in a hand, there is still a chance that they could lose money due to the uncertainty of the game. influence of the element of luck, but they also know that in the long run the people who are most likely to make the most correct decisions based on probability will always be the final winners in the game called Poker.
The investment process is similar to the decision-making process in Poker. Uncertainty is always part of the game, a smart investment has the potential to lose money, and a stupid investment decision has the potential to pay off, at least in the short term. But smart investors are never short-term players, what they really aim for is the long-term end result. It is only when the market goes through a period of excitement and begins to enter a period of depression that we really know who is the real fox in the market.
Small bets, big bets, and discards
If you have a 90% win in a hand of Poker, the most obvious thing is that you want as much stake on the table as possible. But if you are the opponent, who only has 10% of winnings and understands the rules of Poker like you, why should they accept to place more money with only 10% winning rate?
Or let the writer take another example that is easier to understand, if you are an English football fan, you know that Liverpool are one of the strongest teams this season, and their opponent tomorrow is Norwich City , one of the weakest team. Everyone knows that Liverpool have a high win rate and everyone wants to bet on the possibility that Liverpool will win tomorrow, but if so, who will be on the other end of the bet, who will be the fool? bet on the possibility that Norwich City will win?
The obvious answer is that it completely depends on the level of the odds, if the bet on Liverpool bets 3 to 2 while the bet on Norwich City places 1 to 100 then the player doesn't really have a choice at this point. Choose obvious attraction. Liverpool has a higher chance of winning, but placing 3 only eats 2, while Norwich City of course has a very high loss rate, but placing 1 will eat up to 100, at this time, the player really understands that there is no meal. which is free on the betting market. Football betting, the odds are very clear in each ball game but this information is completely hidden in Poker and investing. Poker players and investors must estimate this ratio for themselves and make the final reasonable decision.
In Poker, if you only have a 10% win, the only reason you would be willing to put more money into the hand is when the amount you win when that 10% happens has to be greater than the odds of placing 1 to 10. This means that if you had to put an extra $100 on the hand with a 10% win rate, you would only do this when the winnings were greater than $1000. On an average of 10 similar hands, you will win 1 and lose 9 times, so you want to make sure that the 10% chance of winning is greater than the total loss in the remaining 9 games. This is a basic concept in Poker, but to put it into practice in investment, there are specific difficulties as follows:
1. You cannot know the exact win rate in each investment.
2. You also don't know exactly how much profit you can make if the deal goes through.
In Poker there are some basic math tricks for Poker players to calculate roughly what their probability of winning is in each hand, but this is a luxury in the investment world. It is difficult for investors to give a specific number for the probability of success as well as the rate of return for each potential investment, the most likely thing they can do is give a range. estimates, and the more experienced the investor, the more likely he is to give an estimate that is closest to reality. And like professional poker players, experienced investors are always ready to bet big when the probability of winning as well as the potential profit rate is extremely favorable for them. Basically, the action to invest money in the market is similar to the action of placing chips on the Poker table, which is an expression of confidence in the player's ability to win in the future. The greater the confidence, the bigger the stake, and vice versa. As the Godfather of Poker Doyle Brunson once said, "Basically, Poker is the art of making the best decisions in any uncertain situation. You have to know when to put more money, when to discard, and when to discard. Which should be All-in".
In Poker, the hand you are playing is similar to the investment you are considering to lose money in the market, the question that the wise player must always answer is:
Is this an attractive deal with the odds of winning as well as the odds being extremely favorable for you?
1. If the answer is an absolute affirmation, you bet big.
2. If the answer is probably maybe, you bet small.
3. If the answer is no, you simply discard.
In life nothing is certain, but this also does not mean that everything is 50/50 as many people mistakenly believe, in reality there will always be things with a higher probability of happening. with other things, but always remember that a low probability does not mean it will never happen, things no matter how small the probability, as long as the sample set is large enough, nothing is a problem. cannot happen. For successful investing, the betting mindset is one of the most important skills in investing simply because the Bayesian model is one of the best tools an investor can use to deal with volatility. future determination. Learn to accept the uncertainty of the future as well as the irrefutable probabilistic nature of the investment game, and investors will begin to have a more rational mental model when thinking about prospects. of potential future investments.
COMPOUND INTEREST. Time is on your side📚
❗️As it turned out, not all traders are familiar with such an important concept as compound interest. Meanwhile, the use of compound interest in trading can be a very effective tool for making a profit. In short, compound interest is the accrual of interest on interest, and if in detail, then read on.
✅The formula for calculating compound interest has the form:
Compound percentage = (P (1 + g)^ n) – P, where
P – the amount originally invested;
r – interest rate;
n is the investment period.
Let's say you invested an amount of $ 10,000, every year the interest received is added to the principal amount, and new interest is accrued for a larger amount. If the investment period is 5 years, and the interest rate is 10% per annum, then after the specified period, taking into account the compound interest, you will receive a profit in the amount of:
(10000(1+0.10)^5)-10000=6105.1$
And without taking into account the compound interest, the profit for the same period will be:
10000*5*0,10-10000=5000$
As you can see, using compound interest (or in other words reinvesting profits) brought additional income in the amount of: 6105.1-5000 = 1105.1 $.
✅It seems that the figures presented above are not impressive, but the use of compound interest in trading can truly work wonders. In what way? Let's take another look at the compound interest formula described above. It is obvious from the formula that you can increase profit by increasing any of its components. Let's not touch the amount originally invested, but play with the value of the investment period and the interest rate.
To begin with, let's imagine that we will reinvest the profit not every year, but every month. Then the investment period will be 12 *5 = 60 months. The interest rate corresponding to this investment period will be equal to: 10%/12=0.833%. Let's substitute these values into the formula for calculating the compound percentage:
(10000(1+0.00833)^60)-10000=6449,8$
As you can see, under the same conditions, but with monthly reinvestment of profits, the income will already be $ 6449.8- $6105.1 =$344.7 more.
Well, if the trader's income is not 0.833% per month, but, for example, 5% monthly, then under the same conditions and for the same period, the profit will already be:
(10000(1+0.05)^60)-10000=176791,86$
Felt the difference, impressive, isn't it? And what if you reinvest profits not monthly, but daily? Let's figure it out. With an average yield of 5% per month, the average daily yield will be 5%/21= 0.238% (here 21 is the number of working days in a month). The investment period will be 5*360=1800 days. Let's substitute the data into the compound interest formula:
(10000(1+0.00238)^1800)-10000=711617,5$
This is already 711617.5-176791.86 = 534826 $ more than with monthly reinvestment of profits. More than half a million dollars (and this with an initial investment of only ten thousand)! That's impressive. That's what compound interest is in action.
⚠️This is about theory. In practice, it is impossible to achieve a constant percentage of profit every day. Some days a trader inevitably ends up with a loss, some with a profit, and the size of these losses and profits is always different. So it is unlikely to substitute the value of the percentage of profit per day in the above formula. However, the very essence of compound interest, clearly shown above in figures, gives the trader a fairly powerful tool for earning. A trader can and should use compound interest when creating his own money management system.
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Be Prepared - In control of the Survival ModeHI Traders, here come another workshop on being prepared for any possible outcomes in trading. Whether you're a new or experienced traders, at one point, you'd definitely face some obstacles completely out of your comfort zone, where you're just stumbling without any clue on how to solve it. Here sums up 4 key elements on how to be in-control of any possible outcome
1. Flexible
- Successful traders have extremely good flexibility. Regardless of what's put infront of their face, they adapt.
- Market conditions vary from day by day, so when the ordinary things/ setups aren't working well, what's wrong? Most likely either the market condition has changed, or your mindset is changing.
- This is why having multiple strategies to trade across different market conditions are so important. If you're only focusing on a specific market condition (eg. Trend Trader), then knowing how to identify when the market is in a non-trending condition is crucial to prevent yourself from making unusual decisions or taking unnecessary risks.
2. In control of the Survival Mode
- The Fight-or-Flight response refers to how humans have high tendency of making impulsive decision based on unknown fear.
- By managing the Survival Mode , you're truly able to avoid yourself from making irrational decision due to any unusual market condition, such as a sudden volatility spike.
- When you're in a deep drawdowns, ONLY think in-terms of probability and possibility . Question yourself: "If I continue trading, would it lead to a snowfall effect?" OR "If I stop trading, would it affect my long-term expectancy?"
3. Emotional-detachment
- Great traders always have a Poker face, not because they're inhuman, but because they've been humbled by the markets way too many time.
- Sharpen the ability to spot where you have a high tendency to deviate from your plan, then prevent yourself from making impulsive decisions.
- Losing traders are in the blue moon when they've got a good position running, and being extremely negative when they're having drawdowns.
- If you're overly attached to the results or outcome on any particular trades, it basically hints you that you should probably stop trading and focus on your reflective process.
4. Problem-solver
- Avoid being too harsh on yourself.
- Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So stop excessively blaming yourself based on any particular decision, give yourself a pat in the shoulder, and ask yourself "how can i do it better next time?"
- Being positive is one huge element in becoming a successful trader. You don't want to get so beaten up until a point where you're nervous clicking the bid & ask buttons. Build up the necessary confidence to understand that you may not win this trade, but in the long-term I will always come out as a winner.
Let me know in the comment below what's your worst trading experience!
Hope all of you have a good trading week, take care and trade safe.
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Smart Rebalance StrategyThe smart rebalance strategy is a holding kind of strategy that works like the following:
The user chooses a certain number of pairs, an initial capital and a rebalance timeframe.
The capital is split equally between each pair. (ex. for 2 pairs: 50% on each).
On each rebalance timeframe (on the bar it happens), pairs balance who grew bigger than 50% will be redistributed to other pairs, making sure that after the transaction, the total capital is once again split equally through all pairs. This means selling pairs whose price went higher than the others, and buying those who dropped. In other words, selling high and buying low.
The inital capital corresponds to the quote currency of all pairs, so each pair must have the same quote currency. (ex: USDT or BTC markets)
On each interval, the strategy will send orders for each pair saying whether to buy or to sell, and the quantity.
Goal of the strategy is to grow your initial capital while splitting it through several pairs and keeping the pairs repartition unchanged.
How To Calculate Risk/Reward To Trade & Invest In Crypto MarketHi everyone:
Today I want to make this educational video on how to calculate your risk/reward in trading and investing in the cryptocurrency market.
Many newcomers in the industry are not aware of the importance of risk management. So today let's give out different examples of them on how to properly calculate the $, %, and setting the SL/TP.
This video is intended to help traders and investors to understand how to calculate the amount to risk per trade, or per investment purpose.
I will give different examples of going long and short in trading, as well as buying coins for the purpose of investment.
Doesn't matter what crypto broker exchange you use, this calculation/formula will work, you will just need to do some simple math to get to the right numbers.
Example 1:
Want to go long on BTC in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $12,000
Risk 1% of your trading account
Want to go long on BTC when price hits $70,000
You want the Stop Loss @$66,000,
and a TP @ $80,000
Calculation:
Calculate your 1% of the trading account:
$12,000 Account x 0.01 $120 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL amount
$120 / $4000 = 0.03
Set your entry order or market order
for 0.03 BTC @ $70,000 price
0.03 x $70,000 = $2,100
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $66,000
If price hits your SL, your order would be
0.03 BTC x $66,000 = $1,980
$2,100 - 1,980 = $120 = 1% of your account
Set your TP at $80,000
If price hits your TP, your order would be
0.03 BTC x $80,000 = $2,400
$2,400 - $2,100 = $300 = 2.5% of your account
Example 2:
Want to go long on ADA in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $800
Risk 1% of your trading account
Want to go long on ADA when price hits $2.30
You want the Stop Loss @1.70
Calculation:
Calculate your 1% of the trading account:
$800 Account x 0.01 = $8 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL
$8 / $0.60 = 13.34
Set your entry order or market order
for 13.34 ADA @ 2.30 price
13.34 x 2.30 = $30.68
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $1.70
If price hits your SL, your order would be
13.34 ADA x $1.70 = $22.68
$30.68 - $22.68 = $8 = 1% of your account
Set your TP at $4.00
If price hits your TP, your order would be
13.34 ADA x $4.00 = $53.36
$53.36 - $30.68 = $22.68 = 2.83% of your account
Example 3:
Want to go short on TRX in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $54,000
Risk 1.5% of your trading account
Want to go short on TRX when price hits $0.11
You want the Stop Loss @ $0.13
Calculation:
Calculate your 1.5% of the trading account:
$54,000 Account x 0.0150 = $810 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL
$810 / $0.02 = 40,500
Set your entry order or market order
for 40,500 TRX @ 0.11 price
40,500 x 0.11 = $4,455
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $0.13
If price hits your SL, your order would be
40,500 TRX x $0.13 = 5,265
$5265 - $4455 = $810 = 1.5% of your account
Set your TP at $0.07
If price hits your TP, your order would be
40,500 TRX x $0.07 = $2,835
$4,455 - $2,835 = $1,620 = 2% of your account
Example 4:
Want to buy ETH to hold for long term as investment
Scenario:
Investing Account $20,000
Risk 10% of your investing account
Want to buy ETH to hold for long terms
Want to enter when price hits $4,900
Calculation:
Calculate your 10% of the investing account:
$20,000 Account x 0.10 = $2,000 per investment
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter
$2,000 / $4,900 = 0.4082
Set your entry order or market order
for 0.4082 ETH @ $4,900 price
0.4082 x $4,900 = $2000
(This is the amount you will need in your investing account
to execute this buy.)
You want to lose no more than 25% of your original $2,000 investment.
$2,000 x 0.75 = $1,500
$1,500 / 0.4082 = $3,674.67
Set your alert and SL at $3,674.67
If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be
0.4082 ETH x $3,674.679 = $1500
$2,000 - $1500 = $500 = 25% of $2,000
You want to gain about 50% of your original investment before selling.
$2,000 x 1.50 = $3,000
$3,000 / 0.4082 = $7,349.34
Set your alert and TP at $7,349.34
If price hits your TP, your order would be
0.4082 ETH x $7,349.34 = 3,000.00
$3,000 - $2,000 = $1,000 = 50% of $2,000
Example 5:
Want to buy MATIC to hold for long term as investment
Scenario:
Investing Account $1,500
Risk 20% of your investing account
Want to buy MATIC to hold for long terms
Want to enter when price hits $2.25
Calculation:
Calculate your 20% of the investing account:
$1,500 Account x 0.20 = $300 per investment
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter
$300 / $2.25 = 133.34 MATIC
Set your entry order or market order
for 133.34 MATIC @ $2.25 price
133.34 x $2.25 = $300
(This is the amount you will need in your investing account
to execute this buy.)
You want to lose no more than 50% of your original $300 investment.
$300 x 0.50 = $150
$150 / 133.34 = $1.1249
Set your alert and SL at $1.1249
If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be
133.34 MATIC x $1.1249 = $149.99
$300 - $149.99 = $150.01 = 50% of $300
You want to gain about 75% of your original investment before selling.
$300 x 1.75 = $525
$525/133.34 = $3.9373
Set your alert and TP at $3.9373
If price hits your TP, your order would be
133.34 MATIC x $3.9373 = $525
525 - $300 = $225 = 75% of $300
Any questions, comments and feedback welcome to let me know.
If you like more of these contents, like, subscribe/follow and comment for me to keep doing them. :)
Jojo
Trading Success Isn't As Smooth As You Imagined!Hi traders, here we are on another workshop. In this workshop, I will be elaborating my personal trading journey with my sincerest opinion. Here are 5 stages you will go through becoming a Consistently Profitable trader
Phase 1 - Constantly losing big
• This phase is where your trading journey begin. You're filled with passion, your subconscious & conscious mind are blinded by the imagination of trading success.
• You believed that trading isn't that difficult, and you're one of the top 10% that will achieve consistent profitability within a short period of time. Most of my students and members approached me during their first year of trading, fueled with passion, and thought that they should be achieving their trading goals with limited effort. But the ugly truth is, 80% - 90% of them got smashed by the markets pretty harsh, and left trading later on.
• You have no idea what you're doing, you have little to no knowledge and experience.
- If this is you, what you should be doing now, is to absorb information like a sponge and keep striving.
Phase 2 - Losing less
• This is when you come to a realization that you're no different than most of the traders. You're probably scared by the markets, you begin stepping back a little bit.
• You realized if you keep doing what you're currently doing, it's just the matter of time you will blow up more accounts again, and again. You clearly know what you're not supposed to do and what you're supposed to do, but with a
lack of direction. You absorb everything and you test out whatever information you received. You jumped from strategy to strategy, courses to courses, and webinars to webinars.
- If this is you, you should be focusing on identifying your strength & weakness, and stop confusing yourself with overloaded information. Spend more time on reading yourself, and admit your mistakes.
Phase 3 - Breakeven
• Most traders at this stage have a clear goal and understand what they're doing wrong. But most of them have no clear direction and resources on where and how to begin with.
• You probably have a proper trading plan, money management skill, and a healthy mindset, but you just need guidance.
- If this is you, I'd suggest you to find mentorship to fast-pace your learning curve. List out all your strategies to examine which one works best by reviewing your journal.
Phase 4 - Inconsistent wins
• If you're able to achieve this phase, you are one of the very top traders.
• Traders at this stage should have a proper trading plan, a specific trading system/ style, with an unbeatable mindset. Remember to NEVER distract yourself again with excess information.
- If this is you, you should be working on refinement and improvement. Focus on the details such as the probability of success on each setup, breaking them down into various parts, such as entry timing, effective Trade Management
(Scale-in & Scale-Out), exits, etc...
- If you are at this stage, remember to NEVER distract yourself again with excess information. Focus.
Phase 5 - Consistently profitable
• Successful traders 'dance' with the market. Trading has become a systematic process with little to no emotion attached.
- What you need to do now, is to focus on scaling up your trading size. You can either compound your account slowly, or start building a solid track records and start finding potential investors. Good traders always trade big, because the ultimate goal of trading is to make money.
Do not have the misperception that once you've reached the consistently profitable phase, you should be making a lot of money. Good traders are those who never deviate from their trading plan, with consistency and full of motivation. It's always fine to step back a little bit, as long as you're progressing.
Comment down below where are you at in your trading journey!
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the sharing. Trade safe and take care.
Skill VS Luck - Becoming a Consistently Profitable TraderHi traders, here we are on another workshop. Today I'll be sharing some of the points on differentiating skill or luck trading. Majority of the traders have absolutely no clue on are they doing the right things or not? Here's a few key points:
Skill
1. Winners and Losers
- If you are a skilled trader, you're someone who understand the probable and possible in trading. There's no guarantee on any single trade whether it's a winner or loser. Remember, the short-term outcome in trading is completely random, what's more important is to come out being profitable in the long-term. Never judge your performance based on the short-term outcome, think long-term.
2. Good Risk Management
- Good traders always have effective risk management in place. Not any single trade is able cause damage on their capital, and they truly understand how to detach themselves from negative emotions.
3. Repeatable
- Good traders have a repeatable process, that allows them to tackle the market in the same way every single day.
4. Proper Planning
- Good traders rarely deviate from their initial plan, as they understand that a planned trade is a good trade regardless of the outcome. Any trade taken out of impulsive behaviour, is considered a bad trade regardless of the outcome.
5. Consistency
- Good traders have a set of routine and action plan. To achieve consistent results, you must have a consistent performance.
6. Execution
- Good traders have little to no hesitation when it comes to executing their trades. They execute their plan without second guessing or doubt.
Luck
1. No loser
- Most gurus' or lucky traders would promote themselves having 80% - 90% strike rates, which could never happen in reality. The only way you can achieve such a high win rate is to have a Profit Factor of less than 1. In fact, most of the best traders out there have a strike rate of 40-50%.
2. Excessive Risk Exposure
- Losing traders have no idea how to isolate themselves from a bad state of mind. They're constantly putting up a lot of risk on the table regardless of having no clue on what's going on in the markets. The sense of urgency is rushing them on taking unnecessary risk.
3. Unrepeatable
- Losing traders constantly take trades out of their trading plan, which is not duplicable. If you're taking trades that is unrepeatable, most likely it's a lucky trade and you shouldn't be happy about it even if it turns out to be a winning position.
4. Impulsive Behaviour
- Losing traders deviate from their initial plan due to uncontrolled emotion. They're taking trades they're not supposed to take, then regrets later on.
5. No routine
- Losing traders have no daily routine. They're always blind firing all over any 'seems' profitable position. Most of them possess of potential over-trading habits.
6. Hope & Praying
- Losing traders are constantly looking for the 'best trade' that'd give them an enormous return. Most of them have no trading plan and proper Risk Management in place, causing them to experience an emotional rollercoaster on any particular position when it gets out of hand.
"Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken." - Warren Buffett
Let me know in the comment below what's your worst trading nightmare!
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
8 Trading Habits of Successful TradersConsistently profitable traders have a lot of things in common. Watching how they act and following their ideas & thoughts we can spot a lot of commonalities among them. In this post, I have collected 8 trading habits that a trader should have to become successful.
1️⃣ - Realistic Expectation & Vision
Many traders, most often beginners, commonly fall for the trap of wishful thinking. When analysing the charts, they usually only view the market from one bias and only perceive price heading in one direction.
And this is typically the one that their own analysis is pointing towards. However, going into each trade with a realistic expectation that the market doesn't care what you think may happen, and being prepared for a trade to go wrong will help keep you level headed.
2️⃣ - Anticipation of Different Outcomes
Anything can happen in financial markets and for this reason, professional traders always justify their decisions in probabilities.
They understand that 100% chances do not exist so looking at all possible probabilities before entering any trades, the trader is always ready for completely different outcomes and accepts each and every move given by the market.
3️⃣ - Emotional Stability
The market is a wild beast who always wants to bite us and most of the time it manages to do that e.g. drawdowns & losing streaks...
Those who trade for at least 1 year know how unpredictable and unstable the market can be. A perfectly looking trading setup can easily turn into a big losing trade.
Of course, that is painful and of course with more & more losses, the anxiety will begin to chase us, the stress will overwhelm us and you may begin to start second guessing yourself.
Only by remaining stable and calm, you will manage to overcome the negative periods. Learn to control your emotions, learn to take losses!
4️⃣ - Continuous Learning
The markets are infinitely deep in their nature. Trading & constant monitoring of the market always unveil new, uncharted elements and things.
Throughout all my years of day trading, I can't help wondering how many new things I learn each and every day. With continuous learning you evolve, you become better and it improves your trading performance & results.
5️⃣ - Flexibility & Adaptivity
The markets are always changing. If you were trading before COVID crisis, I guess you feel how the reality among us shifted. With fundamental changes in our daily lives, the markets changed as well.
It is hard to say what exactly has altered though, however, we all can feel it. In order to survive in a constantly changing environment we must always be adapting and never stagnant.
6️⃣ - Trade Journaling
Pro traders always assess their past performance & results. They track each and every trading position that they opened.
Both losing trades and winning trades require analysis and observations. Only by studying the past results the trader can improve his trading performance and evolve. Only by identifying mistakes & peculiar commonalities, the trader learns to lose less than he makes.
7️⃣ - Risk Management
90% of traders lose 90% of their funds within 90 days and under 90 trades . This is a well known statistic in the trading industry and aside from psychological factors, it mainly boils down to incorrect risk management.
If you're looking to survive in this game and have a long, prosperous career in trading. You must have your risk management locked down.
One beneficial risk management habit to develop is to not enter any trades unless they have a risk:reward ratio of at least 1:3+ .
8️⃣ - Trading Plan
Sticking to your trading plan is one way of promoting long-term success throughout your trading journey. Undoubtedly, you will go through many psychological ups & downs, mental battles and periods of low confidence.
Abiding by your own trading plan will help assist in ensuring that you don't step out of line from your own trading rules and allow you to stop yourself from developing bad habits overtime.
9️⃣ - Constant Practice
Professional traders never stop, they always watch the charts, they always monitor the prices, and follow the market.
Trading requires constant TRADING. Just spending one single week on a vacation without charts, you can not imagine how hard it is to return back. The trading skills must be constantly maintained.
Don't wait too long for "CONFIRMATION"!Hi Guys
A popular concept in the world of trading, especially among technical traders and chartists is to wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
This means you have a Signal, for example, a price action pattern and now you wait for the markets to confirm that pattern before you enter. The idea, of course, is to filter out bad trades this way and to gain confidence before entering the trade.
But that confidence might come at a very high price in the long run. The problem with waiting for the market to confirm your trading idea is that this "Confirmation" often already is your profit! In other words, the Signal has worked and you would have been paid to take the risk and trade it.
And that's what you get paid for as a trader, you try to anticipate a price move you believe is going to happen before everyone else does. Please notice that this is true despite your trading style. You might hear statements like „I just follow the markets, I don't try to anticipate what's going to happen." (usually, these come from traders following some kind of trend following approach). But what they really mean is that instead of trying to get into a trade early anticipating the markets to reverse direction, they get in late anticipating that the markets will move even further in the direction it has already been moving. Of course nothing wrong with that, but in either case, traders anticipate a future price move they want to profit from and it's important to be aware of that fact.
Another example is trading a specific support/resistance level. Sure the risk to buy into a support level while the market is in free fall is risky. But that's precisely why these trades often offer you great profit potential. In case the trade works out, you'll get paid for the risk you took. But again…once you see that huge reversal price bar on your chart that bounced nicely off that support level - you probably already missed the opportunity.
You now know that you've been right. That really was a support level and market participants bought again at that price. Because of that price moved up and that's why you now see that huge reversal bar. But that move is over now…and those who took the risk and bought at the level are now taking their profits - hopefully, you're not the one buying from them now.
I could come up with many more examples like waiting for an indicator to confirm a trade etc, but the point to consider is that whenever you wait for confirmation you give up a significant amount of potential profits. And more often than not, these potential profits cost more than a couple of losing trades you might filter out waiting for confirmation. Your job here is to find a good compromise between getting in too early due to a Signal coming from market noise and getting in too late due to a Signal that misses most of the opportunity.
The Ambush trading method, for example, is an extreme case, it gets into trades again the ongoing short-term trend all the time. But that's precisely the idea behind it, trying to anticipate where that short-term trend is likely to end. Sounds risky? Well, looking at the long-term results it's actually a lot riskier to be on the other side of these trades ;)
DO YOU BELIEVE CONFIRMATION?
Three Steps to Become A PROFESSIONAL TRADER 👨💻👩💻
Hey traders,
The road to consistently profitable trading is hard and dangerous. This path can be split into three main milestones. Each of those requires discipline, time & patience.
📚The first step is your trading education.
Starting with a basic understanding of what are the financial markets & how they work and finishing with the sophisticated techniques of risk management, so many things must be learned.
In the beginning you will be most likely paralyzed by the complexity of the whole system. Even the choice of a trading education provider is not that simple taking into consideration the sheer amount number sources that could be found on the internet.
It is highly advisable for you to accompany your trading education with demo account trading so that you could apply what you’ve learned in practice.
💸It is imperative to invest in your education, while simultaneously saving up for your first(but not last) real trading account.
Spending your money on education & then saving in order to build your first trading account, a sufficient amount of money is required.
Be prepared for failures. Be prepared to blow your first and second trading account & fund it again. Be prepared that the majority of premium educational sources won't meet your expectations.
I don't know any trader who succeeded in trading without investing a huge amount of money in that.
👨💻With the money being invested & with the knowledge gained, you must practice on a real account.
You must choose the trading strategy that is appealing to you and start trading with that.
Quite soon you will realize that theoretical knowledge has nothing in common with real market conditions.
You will change trading strategies one after another until you finally find the one that truly makes sense to you.
Then you will spend a couple of years playing with that, learning the rules & constantly polishing your trading plan.
🏁At some moment you will stop losing. At some moment your trading account will start growing steadily and you will become a consistently profitable trader.
As the market conditions change constantly. You must be vigilant & learn to survive in a changing environment. Education, active investing & practice are required from you to keep being afloat.
I hope that this article will help you to build realistic expectations concerning trading.
If you are ready to learn a lot, invest money & practice many years not making a dime, then one day you will definitely make it.
Do you agree with my thoughts?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
5 Key Advices To Share With Trader Who Is Struggling In TradingHello everyone:
Lately many of you have messaged me about getting FOMO and entering trades without confirmations.
In addition you can't seem to “not” enter trades when the market hasn't shaped up to your strategy and entry criteria.
I am hoping in today’s educational video it can help some of you guys to get back on track.
I want to share 5 main pieces of advice that can help out traders who are currently struggling.
These are experiences and lessons that I accumulate throughout the 8 years of trading and in hope to help some of you who are struggling in your current journey of trading.
1. Do “NOT” think about get rich quick in trading
-Trading is a marathon, not a sprint
-90-95% traders fail due to a combination of: Greed, FOMO, mindset/emotion, risk management, trading psychology.
-Trading is not a get rich quick scheme, but it can produce consistent, sustainable passive income if you can put in the time and effort
-Most try to jump to the result right away, without going through the journey, that is not how life works.
2. No trading strategies, style, method can give you 100% strike rate
-Trading is probability, not right or wrong.
-Understand you can have the best strategy in the world, and still not be profitable.
- Technical, Fundamental, Algo, EA...etc can all not work. This is why risk management is important to not over risk, over trade, over leverage your trading account
3. Backtest and journal
-Backtest your strategy so your brain acknowledges and recognizes it over and over again.
-Slowly build up confidence in your strategy and method. IT will come to you like second nature
-Journal all your wins and losses so you can review them. Work on them, accept your mistakes to grow and improve.
4. Control your EGO
-Human beings have ego to prove others are wrong and they are right
-We refuse to admit we made the error/mistakes, and blame others/external as the cause.
-Acknowledge that in trading, stop blaming the market, the broker, the mentor, the strategy...etc.
-Don't take things personally and be offended by it.
5. Never Give Up
-I blew several accounts in the beginning of trading career, gave up and quit trading multiple times
-I always ended up coming back to trading. After taking time off. Whether that is weeks or months in the beginning journey.
-No one is born into a trader, just like no one is born into a doctor, lawyer.
-If trading was that easy, then everyone would be rich.
-Success is measure by how many times you get back up when you failed
I hope these pointers can help you guys to get more focus and get back on track in trading.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know, thank you
Jojo
Below I will share others educational videos that have direct relations to the topics above:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Risk Management 101
BTC/USD Binance.US - This is why I do not use stop losses.. I must start by saying that I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investing offers the greatest opportunity for the common man to build wealth to have ever existed in the history of the world. Yet, it is still an endeavor that must be entered into cautiously and with research if one is to be successful.
The Daily Chart for BTC/USD on (the pathetic excuse of an exchange) Binance.US, serves as a teachable moment that should not be ignored. This chart demonstrates that if you cannot go to sleep peacefully without having a stop loss in place then you may need to reconsider being in this game.
The traditional methods of trading securities that were used in the regulated stock markets of the world and which subsequently made a lot of the famous traders of old very rich, predated high frequency trading and algorithmic trading bots on these mostly unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, these outdated methods are currently being peddled and taught by the get-rich-trading-crypto-gurus today as the "secrets to crypto trading profits", despite this being 20th century methods that will cause you to lose your shirt if adhered to when trading crypto. Any endeavor to read and learn about crypto trading will, almost without fail, lead to a regurgitated list of the same old trading clichés. One such example: the so-called number one rule of trading. Always use a stop loss. The number one rule of successful trading is undoubtedly to limit your losses. This may be true, but if you are doing that with a stop loss on an exchange then you are asking to be robbed. Yes, you have to know when to cut your losses and move on, but unfortunately, because of the nature of swimming these dangerous financial waters, the sharks in the crypto space will eat your lunch, steal your crypto at bargain prices and laugh as you weep over what could've been. The order books are open. Anybody with a desire to do so can launch a trading "bot" using an API on most any crypto exchange. If that person or entity happens to have enough capital to clear the buy or sell side of the order books of an exchange, then they are free to do so. Once this is done, your crypto is gone at a bargain price with the classic stop loss shake out. Which is why if I cannot hold it without a stop loss, then I don't need it. If a drop in price doesn't present an opportunity for me to buy more, then I don't need it. If I'm not confident that it will be around in 2-5 years from now, then I don't need it. To limit losses, set a price alert on Tradingview, CoinGecko, or your exchange watchlist. If you are afraid it will drop too much before you can act on it, or if it suffers from a lack of volume and thus has a lack of liquidity, then perhaps it's best to HODL or leave it be.
If you don't know what any of this means, then that could be a sign that you may need to do a little more due diligence.
DEVELOPING YOUR TRADING PLAN | Your Whys and Hows 📝
Hey traders,
To trade the market profitably you need to have a plan.
A set of rules & conditions to rely on each and every time when you are searching for a trading opportunity.
A trading plan of a professional trader is very sophisticated. It consists of various different elements. The precision there is pushed to the limits.
In this article, we will discuss a trading plan of a newbie trader. A trader who just completed a basic educational course and looks for a trading strategy to trade with. The proposed trading plan will be based on very very essential elements that must be included in any trading plan.
💱Know what you trade.
Know exactly what market are you focused on and which trading instruments are on your radar.
For example, being a stock trader, you can not follow all the world stocks, you should narrow down your list and specify that.
⌛Know what time frame you analyze.
There are multiple styles of trading. Trading style can be defined by a trading time frame.
Trading setups taken on a daily time frame are dramatically different from setups spotted on 1-hour time frame.
📈Know exactly the desired market conditions.
There are two main states of a market:
The market can be in a trend and the market can consolidate.
Depending on the state of the market the trader can look for trend-following opportunities; trade the ranging market or look for reversal counter-trading setups.
💸 Know your desired risks.
The max amount of active trading positions,
risk percentage per a single transaction,
max allowable drawdown.
All these numbers must be considered & calculated precisely.
💡Know your entry reasons.
There are thousands of different reasons to open a trading position. However, they can be easily sorted by various categories.
Three universally accepted categories of entry conditions are:
patterns, indicators, fundamental news.
The trader must strictly know in advance the conditions that he is looking for to open a trading position.
🛑Specify your stop placement rules.
Losses are inevitable and must be strictly controlled.
As with the entry reasons, there are a lot of different stop placement techniques.
You must know exactly what do you rely on to place your stop wisely.
3 most common stop placement techniques are:
pip-based, structure-based and indicator-based.
🟢Know your targets.
Opening a trading position and catching a rally the trader must have strict rules for profit-protection/profit-taking.
The two most common ways of profit protection are take profit levels based on fixed levels/pip numbers & trailing stop.
All these elements must be strictly included in your trading plan.
If at least one of them is missing, don't trade.
With time, as you mature, you will have more and more elements & conditions in your trading plan. That will make your trading more precise & consistent.
Do you have a trading plan?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
3 Ways To Invest In Crypto Market WITHOUT Education 💡You got a busy life and you don't have time to research and learn about thousands of cryptos,
Or you maybe don't see yourself and your life a trader,
Maybe aren't even interested in capital market.
You just heard Crypto Market is gaining a lot of profit and you just don't want to miss it..
You know what?? You hear from a Shit Coin.. You buy some.. And You will lose most of or maybe all your money ..
This IDEA will guide you through this situation, it will let you know how to invest successfully (probably), in crypto market.
I tried to minimize the risk for you..
SHALL WE BEGIN???
There are three possible ways, the First one will cost you money, the Second and the Third are free of charge.
FIRST: Go to an expert consultant.
The only thing you need to do, is to research and find suitable expert consultant for yourself. After that everything is done.
He/She, will gather some of your personal information to know you better to arrange a personal crypto portfolio.. This type of portfolio is uniquely designed for you and your personal goals..
And of course this way will cost you money due the type of expert you find.
SECOND: Bitcoin & Ethereum.
Clear your mind from whatever exciting coin and token you hearing all around the social media or you friends..
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the King and the Queen of the market, AND NOTHING ELSE MATTERS...
Try to calculate how much money can you HOLD or HODL for at least 5 YEARS . Buy Bitcoin/Ethereum with that money and store it in a safe place and just don't think about it anymore until that 5 year deadline comes up.
I believe you will be surprised when you see the outcome of your investment. And don't remember that at least 5 year is so important.
free of charge this one.
THIRD AND LAST: DCA, Dollar-Cost Averaging.
Did you remember older members of the family always told us, don't spend all your income. Put some of your income into the bank, monthly. It'll come handy some day.
Dollar Cost Averaging is something like that, and you know what?? It will work perfectly on Cryptos.
The only thing you need to do, is to calculate you monthly costs and income. After that promise something to yourself, I WILL SAVE SOME OF MY INCOME INTO CRYPTO EVERY MONTH. It can be %5, %10, %15,... whatever number you and your life feel comfortable with.
This DCA needs Three situations for you to concentrate on. First , You should keep your promise and buy crypto every month no matter what happens. Second , you should again wait at least 5 years . But don't worry the results will make you satisfied.
And Third , Just buy Bitcoin or Ethereum again and nothing else. Don't remember The KING and The QUEEN.
Why it is called AVERAGING??? because, no matter what is the price your filling your bag every month, so you will buy bitcoin in the deep, in the middle and in the top. This way you will buy your asset in an average price, without even knowing anything from the market.
This one was free of charge too, and I believe from bottom of my heart you will be excited from the result..
This is it.. I hope you enjoyed this IDEA.. If you did so, push the LIKE button and feel free to talk to me in comment section :)
Volume Profile (Top 3 Reasons To Use Value Area Trading)Top 3 Reasons To Use Value Area Trading (on Volume Profile)
1) Plots on a vertical scale and gives you a specific price level where the most volume has occurred.
2) You gain far more information about price levels and volume.
3) Most importantly: Makes it easier to sport institutional support and resistance levels.
Why is it important to know where 70% of trading volume? Because retailer traders need to know where large institutional or big banks are buying and selling and need to trade with them, not against them.
POC or point of control is the LINE on chart is the largest volume by institutional traders- on the chart. Largest horizontal line.
*IF price action is above point of control- then trade bullish or buy
*IF price action is below point of control- then trade bearish or sell
You can see thin volume outside of the value area, where price action moves quickly thru areas into value areas.
You can use last couple or few days to find volume profiles or value areas to determine where price action might go too.