Bollinger Bands: Basics and Breakout Strategy🔵 What are Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They help traders analyze price volatility and potential price levels for buying or selling. The indicator consists of three lines plotted over a price chart:
Middle Band: A simple moving average (SMA), typically set to a 20-period average.
Upper Band: The middle band plus two standard deviations.
Lower Band: The middle band minus two standard deviations.
🔵 How Are Bollinger Bands Calculated?
Middle Band (MB): MB = 20-period SMA of the closing price.
Upper Band (UB): UB = MB + (2 × standard deviation of the last 20 periods).
Lower Band (LB): LB = MB - (2 × standard deviation of the last 20 periods).
The bands expand when volatility increases and contract when volatility decreases.
length = 20
basis = ta.sma(src, length)
dev = mult * ta.stdev(src, length)
upper = basis + dev
lower = basis - dev
🔵 How to Use Bollinger Bands in Trading
Bollinger Bands provide insights into market volatility and potential price reversals. Traders often use them to:
Identify overbought (price near the upper band) and oversold (price near the lower band) conditions.
Spot volatility contractions, which often precede significant price moves.
Confirm trend strength and potential reversals.
🔵 Bollinger Bands Breakout Strategy
One effective strategy involves preparing for breakouts when the upper and lower bands contract, indicating low price momentum.
Strategy Steps:
Identify Low Volatility Zones: Look for periods when the bands are close together, signaling a potential breakout.
Prepare for a Breakout: Monitor price action as it approaches either the upper or lower band.
Entry Signal: Enter a trade when the price closes above the upper band (for a long position) or below the lower band (for a short position).
Stop Loss Placement:
For long entries (break above upper band): Set stop loss at the lower band.
For short entries (break below lower band): Set stop loss at the upper band.
Profit Target: Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 or close the position when price shows signs of reversal.
Example Charts:
🔵 Final Thoughts
This Bollinger Bands breakout strategy is simple yet effective. By recognizing periods of low volatility and preparing for breakouts, traders can capitalize on significant price movements. Always complement this strategy with proper risk management and confirmation indicators for optimal results.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and traders are solely responsible for their own decisions and actions.
Community ideas
How to Set Multiple TPs...for BeginnersHey Rich Friends,
I wanted to share how I find multiple TPs for my Forex trades using free tools and only 1 technical indicator. This strategy is perfect for beginners because it is easy to follow and has clear confirmations for entering and exiting a trade in profit, even if it hits your Stop Loss.
I keep my charts clean and let price action do the talking. Here's my setup:
✅ Session Breaks & Horizontal Lines – I mark the previous day’s highs, lows, and key levels to identify potential areas of interest.
✅ Stochastic for Entries & Exits – I use the Stochastic indicator to time my trades when the price reacts at my key levels (80 and 20 are very important here!)
✅ Horizontal Lines = Potential TPs – Instead of setting a take profit, I let the market tell me when to exit based on price action around these levels.
Less noise, more precision. Drop a "7" if you made it to the end of the video and let me know if it was helpful!
Peace and Profits,
Cha
The Two Minds of a Trader: Analysis vs. ExecutionTrading is a game of probabilities, discipline, and emotional control. Yet, most traders unknowingly sabotage themselves by letting their analytical mind interfere with their execution. Understanding the distinction between the Analytical Mind (The Analyst) and the Execution Mind (The Trader) can significantly improve your trading performance. I’m Skeptic , and today, I’ll break down how to master these two mental states.
The Analytical Mind vs. The Execution Mind
The Analyst: The Market Forecaster 🔍📊
This is the part of your mind that loves to analyze, predict, and overthink.
It constantly searches for confirmation and the perfect setup.
It’s responsible for drawing support/resistance levels, using indicators, and finding confluence zones.
Often, it falls into the trap of “analysis paralysis,” hesitating to take trades due to over-analysis.
🛑 Biggest Mistake: Letting the Analytical Mind interfere with execution.
The Trader: The Decision Maker 🎯💰
This is the part of your mind that follows a structured, predefined trading plan.
It focuses on executing rather than predicting.
It respects stop-losses, sticks to the plan, and doesn’t chase the market.
It manages risk effectively and understands that losses are part of the game.
✅ Key to Success: Training the Execution Mind to act without emotional interference from the Analytical Mind.
How to Stop Overthinking and Trade with Confidence
1. Create a Clear Trading Plan 📝
A structured plan removes uncertainty. Before you enter a trade, you should already know:
Your entry triggers (specific price action setups, indicators, or fundamental conditions).
Your risk-to-reward ratio (R/R) and stop-loss placement.
Your profit-taking strategy (scaling out, trailing stops, etc.).
💡 Example:
I personally use setups based on support/resistance, RSI divergences, and volume confirmation.
I’ve backtested these setups with 30+ trades per condition, ensuring their viability.
This confidence in my system allows me to execute trades without second-guessing.
2. Separate Learning from Execution 🚧
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is learning while trading.
Before the trade: This is the time for analysis and preparation.
During the trade: This is execution mode—stick to your plan, no second-guessing.
After the trade: Review and learn. This is when you refine your strategy, not during a live trade.
3. Reduce Information Overload 📉
Too much knowledge can be detrimental in trading.
Many traders believe that knowing more = better trading. This is a myth.
The best traders master one or two strategies and refine them instead of constantly searching for new indicators.
Focus on backtesting and forward-testing instead of endlessly consuming content.
🚨 Reality Check: Traders 100 years ago made consistent profits without advanced indicators, algorithms, or AI models. Why? Because they focused on mastering risk management and execution instead of drowning in endless analysis.
Final Thoughts: Train Your Execution Mind
Trust your plan: If you’ve done your homework, your only job is to execute without hesitation.
Less is more: Reduce unnecessary analysis and stick to core principles.
Be patient: The best traders don’t chase trades—they wait for their setup.
📌 Key Takeaways: ✅ Stop over-analyzing and start executing.✅ Confidence comes from backtesting and having a structured plan.✅ The market rewards discipline, not predictions.
Which mindset dominates your trading—Analyst or Trader? Drop a comment below and let’s discuss!
🔹 I’m Skeptic, and my goal is to help traders gain clarity and consistency in their journey. Let’s grow together!
Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E).
This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend.
Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure
Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines.
In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market.
The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios
In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Euro FX Futures (6E) details:
Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €125,000
Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract.
Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details:
Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E)
Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract.
M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes.
Execution and Trade Management
Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move.
If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan.
Conclusion
Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
2 Ways to Potentially Gauge a Dip in PriceTrading markets should be simple right? Establish the direction of a price trend, take a position in the direction of that trend and enjoy the ride!
Of course, in practice, we all know trading is never that easy. All traders go through similar anxieties regarding whether the current level is the correct one to trade.
Perhaps one of the hardest challenges if you want to buy an asset, is when a high in price has already been established and prices are selling off. Are you now wrong with your view to buy, or should this sudden weakness be used as an opportunity to take a long position at possibly a better level?
As traders, we face these decisions every day, but fortunately, technical analysis offers several tools to aid us. Today, we want to look at 2 approaches that can assist in gauging how far a correction in price may go, and if we should consider that dip in price as an opportunity to take a position or not.
Previous Highs as a Support:
We all know prices never move in straight lines, be it to the up or the downside. Corrections are often seen as a healthy counter move to the on-going trend. However, being able to anticipate the extent of such weakness and when to make that trade, can be vital.
If we look at the chart of the UK 100 Index above, we can see that between May 15th 2024, when the index traded to a high of 8477 and August 5th 2024, when the 7906 low was posted, a period of sideways price activity materialised.
An upside closing break from this range materialised on January 17th 2025, at which point, traders perhaps began to anticipate a more extended phase of price strength.
However, as we’ve said, prices don’t always move in straight lines, even after such a break higher. Often, a pullback in price develops, offering opportunities to enter the market at potentially a better level than if we’d blindly followed price strength after the initial break higher.
A pullback in price is perfectly normal and doesn’t alter possibilities of a more extended phase of price strength. However, the challenge is anticipating where support may be found again, to hold and resume the advance.
Often, old price highs can be useful, as having previously marked resistance to price strength, once broken they can become support on dips, and may hold future price weakness, even turn it higher once more.
Within the UK 100 index, we might consider 8418 from August 30th and 8477 from May 15th as old price highs, which might then become support, after the January 17th upside break in price.
To highlight this possible support area marked by these previous price highs, where buying opportunities might have been offered in the UK 100 index during the January price setback, we’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the chart below.
Following the January 17th 2025 upside break, having previously been a resistance focus, the 8418 and 8477 highs, might now became potential support to a dip in price, possibly able to hold and reverse the correction back to the upside.
This 8418/8477 range, proved to be support when tested on January 27th 2025, from which price strength developed again, to post new all-time highs.
Importantly, it is possible given that this 8418/8477 range proved to be support in January, it could do so again, so keep that in mind, if price weakness develops, at any point in the future.
Using The 10 Day Moving Average to Act as a Support to Price Dips:
In the example above, the UK 100 index correction in January lasted several days, and in certain cases, this could even last weeks. However, what if price is already within an established uptrend? It’s here that setbacks may be seen over a shorter period of time with shallower price declines.
In this type of set-up, it is often the rising 10 day moving average that marks the extent of a price dip, before turning price activity higher again.
As an example, let’s look at Gold during 2025 so far, focusing on each recent setback in price. During this latest advance, it has been the rising 10 day moving average that has provided support for price dips on each occasion. Subsequent strength then extended the uptrend to new all-time highs.
Within such an advance, as traders, we might focus on the rising 10 day moving average to highlight possible support to short term price dips within an uptrend, and an area we might wish to use to establish long positions, anticipating continuation of the on-going uptrend.
However, it is important to be aware, a break under the 10 day moving average support might reflect a change in price direction and see deeper declines. So the use of a stop loss to potentially protect any positions is important.
With all this in mind, last Friday (February 14th 2025) saw Gold weakness again back to the rising 10 day moving average support. It will be interesting to see if this holds the recent weakness to extend the current uptrend to new all-time highs, or if a closing break lower develops, suggesting risks could turn towards a more extended phase of price weakness.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Chart Patterns That Keep Showing Up (Are Traders Predictable?)In the grand theater of financial markets, traders often fancy themselves as rational actors, making decisions based on cold, hard data. Yet, time and again, their collective behavior etches familiar patterns onto price charts, as if choreographed by an unseen hand (the Invisible Hand?)
All across the world economy , markets trade in patterns. The trick is to spot those patterns before they unfold.
These recurring formations, known as chart patterns, are a testament to the predictability of human psychology in trading. Let's rediscover some of these enduring patterns, exploring why they persist and how you can leverage them.
🚿 The Head and Shoulders: More Than a Shampoo Brand
Imagine a market trend as a partygoer who's had one too many. Initially, they're lively (the left shoulder), then they reach peak status of euphoria (the head), but eventually, they slump with one last “let’s go party people” (the right shoulder). This sequence forms the Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
Traders spot this pattern by identifying three peaks: a central, higher peak flanked by two lower, similar-sized peaks on each side. The neckline, drawn by connecting the lows between these peaks, becomes the critical support level. A break below this line suggests the party's over, and it's time to exit or short the trading instrument.
Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders indicates a reversal from bearish to bullish, resembling a person doing a headstand—a strong sign the market's ready to flip.
Ready to hunt down the charts for some Head and Shoulders? Try out the Head and Shoulders drawing tool .
⛰️ Double Tops and Bottoms: Déjà Vu in Trading
Ever experience déjà vu? The market does too, in the form of Double Tops and Bottoms. A Double Top resembles the letter "M," where the price hits a high, retreats, and then tests that high again before declining. It's the market's way of saying, "I've been here before, and I'm not going higher."
The Double Bottom, shaped like a "W," occurs when the price drops to a low, rebounds, and then retests that low before rising. It's akin to the market finding a sturdy trampoline at support levels, ready to bounce back.
These patterns reflect traders' reluctance to push prices beyond established highs or lows, leading to reversals.
⚠️ Triangles: The Market's Waiting Game
When traders are indecisive, prices often consolidate, forming Triangle patterns. These come in three flavors:
Ascending Triangle : Characterized by a flat upper resistance line and a rising lower support line. Buyers are gaining strength, repeatedly pushing prices up to a resistance level. A breakout above this resistance suggests bullish momentum.
Descending Triangle : Features a flat lower support line and a descending upper resistance line. Sellers are in control, and a break below support signals bearish continuation.
Symmetrical Triangle : Both support and resistance lines converge, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers. The eventual breakout can go either way, and traders watch closely for directional cues.
Triangles epitomize the market's pause before a storm, as participants gather conviction for the next move.
Feel like looking for some triangles on charts? Jump straight to our easy-to-use Triangle Pattern drawing tool .
🏁 Flags and Pennants: The Market Takes a Breather
After a strong price movement, the market often needs a breather, leading to Flags and Pennants. These are short-term continuation patterns that indicate a brief consolidation before the trend resumes.
Flag : Resembles a parallelogram sloping against the prevailing trend. It's like the market catching its breath before sprinting again.
Pennant : Looks like a small symmetrical triangle that forms after a sharp move. Think of it as the market pitching a tent before continuing its journey.
Recognizing these patterns helps traders position themselves for the next leg of the trend.
🧠 The Psychology Behind Pattern Persistence
Why do these patterns keep appearing? The answer lies in human psychology. Traders, despite access to vast information, are influenced by emotions like fear and greed. This collective sentiment manifests in predictable ways, creating patterns on charts.
For instance, the Head and Shoulders pattern emerges because traders, after pushing prices to a peak, become cautious. Early sellers take profits, causing a dip. A second rally (the head) attracts more participants, but if it fails to sustain, confidence wanes, leading to a sell-off. The final attempt (right shoulder) lacks conviction, and once support breaks, the downtrend ensues.
Understanding the emotional drivers behind these patterns allows traders to anticipate moves and strategize accordingly.
🎯 Using Patterns to Your Advantage
While recognizing patterns is valuable, it's crucial to approach them with a discerning eye:
Confirmation is Key : Don't act on a pattern until it's confirmed. For example, in a Head and Shoulders, wait for a break below the neckline before taking a position.
Volume Matters : Volume often validates a pattern. A genuine breakout is usually accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating strong participation.
Contextual Awareness : Consider the broader market context. Patterns can yield false signals in volatile or news-driven environments.
Risk Management : Always set stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected moves. Patterns suggest probabilities, not certainties.
🧬 The Evolution of Patterns in Modern Markets
In today's algorithm-driven trading landscape, one might wonder if traditional chart patterns still hold relevance. Interestingly, even sophisticated trading algorithms (those used by hedge funds and investment managers) are programmed based on historical patterns and human behavior, perpetuating the cycle.
Moreover, as long as markets are driven by human participants, emotions will influence decisions, and patterns will emerge. The tools may evolve, but the underlying psychology remains constant.
🤗 Conclusion: Embrace the Predictability
In the volatile world of trading, chart patterns serve as a bridge between market psychology and price action. They offer insights into collective behavior, providing traders with a framework to anticipate movements.
By studying these recurring formations, traders can align their strategies with market sentiment, turning the predictability of human nature into a trading edge.
What’s your go-to technical analysis pattern? Are you and H&S trader or maybe you prefer to trade double tops? Share your approach in the comments!
Understanding Buy The Dip In TradingBuying the dip is a trading strategy where you take advantage of temporary price drops in an overall uptrend. The goal is simple: enter the market at a lower price before it resumes its upward move. It sounds easy, but knowing when and how to do it makes all the difference. In this guide, we’ll explore key setups, ideal market conditions, and smart risk management techniques to help you trade dips like a pro. 🚀
1. Understanding Market Structure 🏗️
Before jumping into a trade, it’s crucial to understand how price moves. A strong uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows—this is where buying dips can be very profitable. But beware: not every drop is a buying opportunity. Some dips are part of a pullback, a temporary retracement before the trend resumes, while others signal a complete reversal—the last thing you want to buy into.
Key levels to watch include support zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and high-volume areas. These zones act as potential turning points where the price is likely to bounce.
2. Proven Setups for Buying the Dip 🎯
🔢 Fibonacci Retracement Support
When the price pulls back within a strong trend, it often lands on key Fibonacci levels like 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%. These act as natural support points where buyers step in. If a strong bullish candle appears at one of these levels, it can signal a solid dip-buying opportunity.
Combine this with an oversold RSI and rising volume, and you have a strong case for entry.
🎭 Liquidity Grab (Stop Hunt)
Markets love to shake out weak hands. Sometimes, the price dips below a previous low, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing sharply. This is called a liquidity grab—smart money accumulates positions while retail traders panic.
If the price quickly reclaims the level it just broke, it’s a strong buy-the-dip signal. Look for big buy orders, a sharp recovery, and bullish candlesticks to confirm entry.
📊 Anchored VWAP Test
Institutions often base their trades around VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), especially when anchored from a significant swing low. When the price revisits this VWAP in a strong uptrend, it’s a potential dip-buying zone.
Watch for bounces off VWAP, rising volume, and confluence with other support levels for confirmation.
🔥 Point of Control (POC) Revisit
Markets move towards areas of high liquidity. If the price revisits the Point of Control (POC)—the price level where most volume is traded in a range—it often serves as strong support.
When price pulls back into the POC and finds buying interest, it’s a great spot to enter. Look for strong reactions, failed attempts to move lower, and confluence with Fibonacci levels.
📏 Previous Range Support
A breakout from a trading range is significant, but the price often returns to retest the range high as new support before continuing higher. If this happens on low selling pressure and aligns with moving averages or VWAP, it can be a golden buy-the-dip opportunity.
Look for bullish reactions, buying volume, and strong candles off the level.
3. When Buying the Dip Works Best ✅
Not all dips are worth buying. The best setups occur when:
The market is in a strong uptrend, making higher highs consistently. 📈
Volume is high, showing that buyers are stepping in. 🔥
Macro conditions support upside movement, like favorable economic news. 📰
4. Risk Management: Protecting Your Capital 🛡️
Even the best traders take losses. What matters is how you manage risk:
Set a Stop Loss 🎯: Always place a stop below key support levels.
Position Sizing 📊: Never risk more than a small portion of your capital per trade.
Have an Exit Plan 🚪: Know where you’ll take profits, whether it's at a resistance level or a trailing stop.
Scale In and Out 🎢: Enter gradually instead of all at once, and take profits along the way to lock in gains.
Key takeaways 🎤
Buying the dip can be a powerful strategy—when done correctly. The key is patience: wait for strong trends, allow price to reach significant levels, and confirm with volume and momentum. Combine technical analysis with solid risk management, and you’ll improve your chances of success in the markets. Happy trading! 🚀
Breakdown Of My Personal Strategy On Dow Jones TutorialI will be giving a breakdown on my own personal strategy on how I trade the Dow Jones Futures. I am writing this post for two reasons. First and foremost, to help people. Secondly, to help myself in better understanding.
The way that I trade is using support and resistance, only I don't use the traditional sense of support and resistance that is taught. I use price levels that all traders have. The four price points of a candle stick. I also use major round numbers of 1000's and 500's.
The Open
The Low
The High
The Close
I start by looking at the monthly. When a new month opens, I.E. February 1st for example, I mark the opening price in Orange.
I use the 2 hour chart to look for buying and selling areas, using key price levels. I look for these key price areas and see how price behaves once they get there.
Low of Month trades
Low of the Week trades
Low of the Day trades
High of Month trades
High of the Week trades
High of the Day trades
Example 1:
The month of February opens at 44,444. I mark this with a horizontal trendline in Orange Level 4. I see price gapping down right into 44,000. A major round number of 1000.
I then drill down to my entry timeframe of the 15 minute to find the buy or sell trigger entry. In this case, I saw the creeping push down into the 1000 level followed by a bull 180 bar. I entered in on the close of that bar. I used a 75 tick stop per ATR and a 200 tick target.
This is an actual trade I took. I recently changed my target strategy. I will explain in a bit.
I use the same concept for the following three timeframes.
The Monthly candle
The Weekly candle
The Daily candle
The Monthly candle:
The Weekly candle:
The Daily candle:
Another example of a trade I took
This creeping layering into a level is one of my favorite ways to get into a trade.
What I am doing now is I will set my stop loss of 75 ticks and I will have no profit target. I will hold the trade until the end of the trading day and close it out before the market closes.
On this particular trade, I closed it out at 44,820 for a 343 tick profit.
The weekly template structure:
Some obvious points but worth repeating. Each Weekly candle has an opening price. Within each weekly candle, there are 5 trading days. Monday-Friday. There is a high and low of the week.
Within each trading day, there is also an open, high and a low. I find that when day trading, only to focus on the specific day itself and to not really worry about "multiple time frame analysis"
All you need is the major key levels I laid out up above.
Here is another trade that I took. I was looking for the Monthly open and 44,500 to be used as resistance for a continuation short trade back through the weekly open.
Of course you can see, I lost on this trade. No strategy is ever guaranteed, and I do routinely take losses. My job as a trader is to preserve my capital and to stay alive.
My money management strategy:
One trade per trading day MAX
If lose, DONE
Close out near end of day if in profits, DONE
75 tick stoploss on ALL day trades. DO NOT TOUCH. Do not move up or down. Sometimes to Break-even but only if trade is seeming to fail (more of an intuition thing)
Risk 0.75%-1.5% per trade
Only make slight adjustments to strategy after every 20-trade sample size.
By limiting my losses to only one trade per day, I can easily recover from a losing day with any winning day. Somedays I will either not see the market well, enter at a poor location or just overall, not be at my best. My statistics show that RARELY do I enter another trade after a losing trade, does that one succeed. This tells me that I am not seeing something that particular day. I will wrap it up and try again another day. Revenge trading does no good but to hurt yourself. I admit I am wrong on the day and come back again.
By limiting myself to one trade per day, I am also cutting down on slippage and commissions. Because of slippage and commissions, trading is NOT a zero-sum game, but in fact a NEGATIVE sum game. Your winners are smaller than they ought to be, and your losses are bigger than ought.
I know that I can have three losing days in a row and be right back to normal after one or two winning days. Therefore, who cares if I take a loss. I need to get through the losing trades to find the big, winning trades.
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders.
In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action.
The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels
In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows:
PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3
S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high
S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low)
R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low
R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low)
The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading
1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action
One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI.
Example:
In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Riding the Breakout
When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies.
Example:
In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Target Setting and Risk Management
Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move.
Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk.
Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools
While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness:
VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone.
Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points.
RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal.
Example:
In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing
3 Tools for Timing PullbacksPullbacks in trends can offer some of the highest quality trading opportunities, but not all pullbacks are equal. Some offer high-probability setups, while others are warning signs of deeper corrections or trend reversals.
So how do you time your entry with confidence? Here are three effective tools to help you navigate pullbacks with precision.
1. Keltner Channels: Spotting Pullbacks Within Volatility
Keltner Channels are a volatility-based tool that adapts to changing market conditions. They consist of a central moving average with two outer bands—typically set at a multiple of the average true range (ATR). These bands expand and contract as market volatility changes.
How to Use It:
When price moves into or beyond the Keltner Channel’s outer bands, it signals that momentum is outpacing short-term volatility. This surge in momentum provides an ideal setup to anticipate a pullback.
For timing entries, a steady retracement back to the basis line (middle band) often presents the best opportunity to join the trend. The strongest pullbacks tend to be controlled, showing reduced momentum compared to the initial move. In contrast, a deep retracement all the way to the opposite band suggests strong counter-trend pressure, which could indicate a shift in market dynamics rather than a simple pullback.
Example: Gold Daily Candle Chart
In this example, we see gold pushing into the upper Keltner Channel, retracing to the basis line, finding support, and then resuming its uptrend. This pattern repeated multiple times during last year’s bull run, offering traders several high-probability entry points.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Anchored VWAP: Confirming Institutional Interest
The Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a tool that’s widely used by institutional traders. It tracks the average price a market has traded at, weighted by volume, over a specific period. The key difference with Anchored VWAP is that you can "anchor" it to a significant price point (e.g., a breakout or major low), giving you a dynamic reference point for future price action.
How to Use It:
Anchor the VWAP to a key price level, like the low of the trend or a breakout point.
A pullback to the anchored VWAP is often viewed as a high-probability area for entry. This is because institutional traders may be accumulating positions at this level, making it an important support or resistance zone.
When the price pulls back to the VWAP and starts to hold above it, it suggests that demand is outweighing supply, making it a potentially good place to enter.
Example: USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Having it highs in November, USD/JPY underwent a steady pullback in December, forming a clear base of support at the VWAP anchored to the September trend lows.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring the Depth of the Pullback
The Fibonacci retracement tool is one of the most popular tools for measuring the depth of a pullback. It uses horizontal lines at key Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, etc.) to show potential support and resistance areas during a retracement.
How to Use It:
Identify the high and low of a trending move and apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to measure the distance of the pullback.
Traders should be wary of applying too many Fib levels to their chart, so we would favour focusing on just the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Never assume that Fib levels will hold, wait for price action-based evidence form confirmation.
If price action holds at one of these levels and begins to reverse, it suggests that the trend is likely to resume. The deeper the pullback, the more cautious you should be, but price patterns that align with the 61.8% level should still be considered as potential entry points.
Example: S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
We can see from this example that the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement zone was a useful tool for timing pullbacks on the S&P 500.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Bringing It All Together
The best time to enter a pullback is when multiple tools align. For instance:
A pullback to Keltner Channel's outer band that also aligns with a Fibonacci level could signal a strong buy zone.
Anchored VWAP and Fibonacci levels acting together as support can further confirm the validity of the pullback.
By combining these tools, you'll have a more comprehensive understanding of where the market is likely to resume its trend, increasing your chances of a successful entry.
Example: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Here we can see EUR/USD breaks lower – down into the lower Keltner channel. This is followed by a pullback that end up reversing at a confluent zone that includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the basis of the Keltner channel, and the VWAP anchored to the highs.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
Timing pullbacks effectively can make a huge difference in trading success, and using the right tools helps separate high-probability setups from lower quality trades. Keltner Channels highlight volatility-driven pullbacks, Anchored VWAP identifies levels where institutions may be active, and Fibonacci retracements offer a structured approach to measuring pullback depth. When these tools align, they create confirmation zones that improve trade timing and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Foundations of Mastery: 2025 Mentorship Begins!📢 Welcome to the 2025 Mentorship Program!
Greetings, Traders!
This is the first video of the 2025 Mentorship Program, where I’ll be releasing content frequently, diving deep into ICT concepts, and most importantly, developing structured models around them. My goal is to help you gain a deeper understanding of the market and refine your approach to trading.
Before we get started, I want to take a moment to speak to you directly.
💭 No matter where you are in your trading journey, I pray that you achieve—and even surpass—your goals this year.
📈 If you’re striving for consistency and discipline, may you reach new heights.
💡 If you’ve already found success, may you retain and refine your craft—because growth never stops.
🎯 If you’re just starting out, I pray you develop patience, discipline, and above all, accountability—because true progress comes when we own our failures and learn from them.
🔥 If you’ve been trading for years but still struggle with consistency, do not give up. The greatest adversity comes when you’re closest to success. Stay disciplined, stay dedicated, and keep pushing forward.
Above all, let this be a year where we grow together—not just as traders, but as individuals. May we foster humility, respect, and a learning environment where both experienced and new traders can share knowledge and thrive.
🙏 I pray over these things in the name of Jesus. Amen.
Let's have a great year!
The_Architect
what action I take when market open.This video will show you what I look at and my thought process when prepare for maket open.
Purpose of this video is to show how i make plan to take risk in first hour of market open.
example used is 5min&1min
1st. orb 5min
2nd. wait for breakout of 5min
3rd. use MA as (Support) of a trend to SCALP
ORB FIB levels i used is 0.5%(orb) 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Target is use orb breakout to target 2.0% fib levels as PriceTarget.
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions
Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal.
A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios
Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618).
In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions:
- Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points.
- Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement.
Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%.
What Are Fibonacci Extensions?
Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries.
Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets.
Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions
Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred.
As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse.
It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits.
Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy
If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow.
- Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness.
- Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction.
- Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected.
That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours.
Bullish Example
In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound.
Bearish Example
Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal.
Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher.
How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions?
While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels.
- Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react.
- Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point.
- Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations.
- Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback.
- Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance.
- Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level.
- Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable.
- Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed.
Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions
Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy.
- Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices.
- Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations.
- Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance.
- Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making.
- Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market.
- Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold.
- Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions.
Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions
By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy.
- Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above.
- Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level.
Your Next Steps
Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck!
FAQ
How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions?
Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement.
How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions?
The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets.
What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions?
Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders.
One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on?
📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading
Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out.
Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout.
💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events
Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action.
To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack.
If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell.
👉👈 Who’s Right?
Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality.
The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news.
💡 Why It Matters
Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs.
Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller.
💚 Final Thoughts
Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you.
So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine
TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants.
Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures
Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period.
In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan.
The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel
This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target:
o Entry Zone:
An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry.
o Stop Loss:
Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
o Profit-Taking Strategy:
First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level)
Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level
This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone.
Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations
Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL:
o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800.
o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580.
Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value.
Execution and Market Conditions
To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.
Key Considerations Before Entering
Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade
Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones
Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure
Final Thoughts
This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management.
For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
BTCUSDT soon below 100K$ and heavy fall will leadThis post is also educational and now as we can see the pump and breakout was fake and the fall started:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/sbV6gZGS-Bitcoin-major-sign-of-Stop-loss-hunting-and-dump-seen/
so the question is this that why we are looking for below 100K$ or 90K$?
1. first reason: stop loss hunting which is mentioned as i said before makes a good volume and liquidation for them to enter the position and make a good profit and if you take look at chart we have two Fakeouts at same time and with one high volume candle it is all done, yes the first one is those sellers which enter with resistance of red trendline and the other sellers also joined with resistance of ATH and both of them which used high volume now are out because they had the Felling that if Bitcoin break ATH it will pump and they put stop loss close and both get loss and gets out of trade + we have two major buyers which get in the trade to open long and first are those who enter after breakout of trendline and add more volume after ATH broke and others are those who open long after ATH breakout and were looking for more rise and gain so soon their stop loss will also hit or already done and that is another good volume for them.
2. second reason: usually like previous time which we can see fake breakout we have good move to the upside or downside and i think the dump just started and it will continue more at least to 90K$.
Always do your own research and also remember more reasons and ... will cause this fall and here i mentioned two of them you can add more in comments and mention why we are looking for more fall?
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
8-Minute Guide to Trading Support & Resistance Feeling like you're guessing instead of trading? I've got you covered with this 8-minute crash course on finding support and resistance on TradingView. We'll look at where prices love to bounce back or break through, how to use that for your trades, and a quick trick to spot a real breakout.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Is Dogecoin at risk of being replaced by Musk-themed coins?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌
Reading this educational material will require approximately 10 minutes of your time . For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 10 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of Dogecoin and its role in the global financial landscape.
Dogecoin has gained significant prominence in Elon Musk's business ecosystem, thanks to its widespread use in Musk-associated ventures and Musk's personal advocacy. His vocal support has propelled Dogecoin into the mainstream, cementing his position as one of the most influential figures in the cryptocurrency space. While Musk has previously commented on Bitcoin, it was his involvement with Dogecoin that truly bridged the gap between the business world and cryptocurrency, making Dogecoin the first cryptocurrency to connect him to the broader crypto universe.
Given Musk's continued backing, it is unlikely that Dogecoin will face a sharp decline in the near future. Instead, it is poised to benefit from Musk’s influence and growing presence in the crypto space. However, the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market means new competitors could emerge, potentially impacting Dogecoin's market share. For example, projects like Floki have quickly risen by leveraging high-profile personalities and branding, which could inspire other cryptocurrencies to challenge Dogecoin’s dominance.
Musk’s upcoming ventures, such as XMoney—a blockchain-powered payment platform for his companies like Tesla and SpaceX—could increase demand for Dogecoin. This platform will provide a decentralized payment infrastructure across Musk’s businesses, potentially further solidifying Dogecoin's place in his ecosystem. While the full impact of these developments is still unclear, Musk's leadership in integrating cryptocurrency into established industries is likely to continue.
Another notable factor is Musk's connection with former President Donald Trump, whose recent engagement with the cryptocurrency market has added further attention to the sector. This intersection between high-profile figures has sparked fresh interest in digital assets, creating upward momentum for Dogecoin and other related assets. This growing attention could drive Dogecoin’s price higher as the market responds to this renewed liquidity.
On the technical side , indicators for Dogecoin are increasingly positive. Analysts suggest it may soon break out of its current price channel, signaling the potential for a significant price surge. If Dogecoin can surpass key resistance levels, a bullish phase could emerge, leading to notable price increases in the short-to-medium term. This potential breakout is supported by Musk's ongoing influence in both the tech and crypto spaces, which tends to have a substantial impact on market sentiment.
The broader cryptocurrency landscape is also contributing to Dogecoin's promising future. Trends such as blockchain technology development, institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, and growing recognition of crypto as a legitimate asset class suggest that Dogecoin will remain a significant player in the market. As the cryptocurrency market evolves alongside technological and regulatory changes, Dogecoin’s relevance appears likely to endure.
Furthermore , the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in the crypto space could shape Dogecoin's future. As AI technologies continue to advance, they will influence cryptocurrency trading, market dynamics, and risk management systems. Musk’s involvement in both AI and crypto may provide opportunities to leverage AI-driven tools to enhance Dogecoin's appeal and utility, making it more accessible and efficient for users, which could boost mainstream adoption.
Lastly , the regulatory environment around cryptocurrencies will play a crucial role in determining the future of assets like Dogecoin. While regulations remain uncertain in many areas, the increasing push for clearer frameworks could provide stability to the market. As governments and financial institutions set up structures for cryptocurrency adoption, established cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin could gain more legitimacy, integrating into traditional financial systems and further elevating their market position.
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Dogecoin has become a significant asset in Elon Musk's business ecosystem, driven by his strong support and advocacy. Musk's involvement has helped propel Dogecoin into the mainstream, bridging the gap between the business world and crypto.
While new competitors may emerge, Musk’s continued backing ensures Dogecoin’s relevance.
The launch of XMoney, a blockchain payment system for Musk’s companies, could further boost Dogecoin's use. Musk’s connection to Trump has also sparked renewed interest in digital assets, providing upward momentum for Dogecoin. Technical indicators suggest a potential price surge as Dogecoin nears a breakout.
The broader crypto market trends, blockchain development, and growing institutional adoption signal a positive future for Dogecoin. AI advancements may further enhance Dogecoin's appeal, increasing its accessibility.
Clearer cryptocurrency regulations could increase stability and legitimacy for Dogecoin. As Musk remains a key figure, Dogecoin is likely to maintain its strong position in the crypto ecosystem.
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Earnings Season Playbook: What Traders Should Know to Stay Ahead🏈 It’s Earnings Season — Game On
Earnings season is the market’s quarterly equivalent of the Super Bowl (with just as much action) or the Oscars (minus the red carpet but with just as much drama). Every three months or so (every quarter), companies parade their financial performances, guiding traders and investors through a rollercoaster of beats, misses, and that classic "in line with expectations" snooze-fest.
It’s exciting, nerve-wracking, and, if played right, potentially profitable. So, how do you navigate this high-stakes quarterly event? With a solid playbook and a lot less stress than you might think.
🌀 Know When Things Kick Off
Timing is everything. Earnings reports trickle in on a quarterly basis and are usually released after the regular trading session (for the most part) or before the opening bell (for the banks, mostly).
Having a scheduled earnings calendar means that traders have enough time to digest the numbers — or panic — before the next batch of updates. So make sure you keep an eye on the earnings calendar — you don’t want to be caught holding ill-fated shares if Tesla TSLA announces its profit margins have shrunk because of that quirky Cybertruck, right? Preparation here means knowing who’s reporting, when, and what the expectations are.
📝 Read Between the (Income Statement) Lines
Earnings reports are more than just numbers. Of course, revenue and EPS (earnings per share) are the headliners, but the juicy details often lurk in the fine print. Look out for annualized revenue growth (or shrinkage), profit margins, and forward-looking guidance.
If a company beats earnings but lowers its full-year forecast, it’s like winning the lottery but learning half your prize is in Monopoly money. Market-fluent traders dig deep and connect the dots rather than reacting to headlines.
💡 Forward-Looking Projections: The Market’s Guiding Light
Forward projections or guidance is among the most powerful tools companies use to set the tone. A quarterly performance is old news by the time it’s reported; traders want to know what’s next.
Positive guidance can send stocks soaring, while cautious language can sink even the strongest performers. For example, if a tech company beats earnings but announces reduced hiring or slower revenue growth projections, brace for turbulence. Think of guidance as the “what’s next” teaser for a Netflix NFLX series you can’t stop binging.
Btw, Netflix really outworked everyone in the last quarter.
☎️ Earnings Calls: Raw Market Reactions
Earnings calls are where the magic — or chaos — happens. CEOs and CFOs are tasked with selling their story to analysts and investors, balancing optimism with realism. Listeners keep an ear out for key phrases like … you know it … “AI,” “generative AI” and “AI data centers”.
It’s also where you’ll catch nuggets about new projects, market conditions, and management’s confidence—or lack thereof. Pro tip: Look for a transcript if the financial jargon on live calls makes you feel like you need subtitles.
🎡 The Volatility Playground: Trading Earnings Gaps
Earnings season is a volatility wonderland. Stocks can gap up or down significantly in reaction to results, creating opportunities for savvy traders. Trading these gaps requires a blend of technical analysis and fast decision-making.
Did the stock gap down despite a solid earnings beat? That might be a buy-the-dip moment. Conversely, a massive gap up can shout overbought. The trick is understanding the context of the move — is it justified, or is it speculative?
🐏 Avoid the Herd Mentality (or at Least Try to)
Earnings season brings out the FOMO. Traders see a stock soaring post-earnings and rush in, only to get burned when the euphoria fizzles. It’s tempting to follow the herd, but disciplined traders stay cautious.
Always ask: is this stock moving on fundamentals, or is it riding a hype wave? If it’s the latter, step back and let the dust settle — the market loves to overcorrect.
🖼️ Sector Trends: The Bigger Picture Matters
Earnings season isn’t just about individual stocks; it’s a pulse check on entire sectors. If a major bank reports a sharp jump in profits, it’s a bullish sign for the financial sector (yes, we’re talking about JPMorgan’s JPM latest quarterly update ).
Similarly, a blockbuster quarter from a tech titan might lift the entire tech space. By keeping an eye on sector trends, traders can spot opportunities and avoid pitfalls. Think of it as reading the room before making your move.
🎮 Play the Long Game
Earnings season isn’t just for day traders. Long-term investors can use it to reassess their positions and look for entry points. If a company misses earnings due to short-term challenges but maintains strong fundamentals, it might be a buying opportunity.
On the flip side, a stock riding high on hype but lacking substance could be a signal to exit. Patience pays off, especially when everyone else is chasing the next shiny object.
✍️ Wrapping It Up: Stay Sharp, Stay Informed
Earnings season is as unpredictable as the plot twists in Succession. But with the right preparation and mindset, it’s also a goldmine of opportunities. Do your homework, keep your emotions in check, and don’t be afraid to sit out if the setup doesn’t feel right.
So grab your coffee (or tea, no judgment), fire up your TradingView account, and get ready for the financial fireworks.
How To Navigate: Breakouts with Tools, Indicators & StrategyHaving a Clear and Precise understanding of whether you're dealing with a Breakout or False Breakout can help you:
1) Find potentially profitable opportunities
&
2) Avoid making risky investment moves!
Also knowing how to Confirm Trend Change can:
1) Rise probability of profitable trades
&
2) Limit the total # taken!
So today, I lay out the tools, indicators and tips I use to visualize and to make a decision!
Examples:
COINBASE:XLMUSD & BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
Tools:
- Trendline
- Parallel Channel
- Rectangle
Indicators:
- Volume
- RSI
- "True or False" Formula : Close + 20-25% Break + 5-6 Days Outside of Break = Breakout