Get started

Community ideas

Choosing Your Channel: Bollinger, Donchian, or Keltner?When it comes to trading financial instruments, traders have a plethora of technical indicators to choose from. Among these, Bollinger Bands, Donchian Channels, and Keltner Channels stand out as popular tools for analyzing price movements and identifying potential trading opportunities. Each of these channels has its advantages and unique methods of application. This blog will compare these three channels and provide examples of how each can be used, helping you decide which one is right for you. I. Bollinger Bands Understanding Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, is a volatility-based indicator that measures the standard deviation of price movements. It consists of three lines: a simple moving average (SMA) and two bands that are typically set at two standard deviations above and below the SMA. The distance between the bands adjusts as volatility increases or decreases. Using Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are useful for identifying price movements and potential reversals. When the bands contract, it indicates low volatility, and when they expand, it signals high volatility. A common strategy is to look for a breakout or breakdown when the bands contract. Example: If a stock's price has been trading within a narrow range, and the Bollinger Bands contract, a trader might anticipate a breakout or breakdown. If the price breaks above the upper band, it could signal a bullish trend, while a break below the lower band suggests a bearish trend. This breakout should be confirmed with other indicators such as the MACD or RSI. II. Donchian Channels Understanding Donchian Channels Donchian Channels, developed by Richard Donchian in the 1960s, is a trend-following indicator that measures the highest high and lowest low over a set number of periods, typically 20 periods. It consists of three lines: the upper channel line, the lower channel line, and the middle line, which is the average of the upper and lower lines. Using Donchian Channels Donchian Channels are primarily used to identify potential breakouts and breakdowns. Traders often use the channels to assess the strength of a trend and determine entry and exit points. The Donchian cloud can be a great tool for establishing lines of support and resistance as the price makes higher highs and lower lows and conversely lower highs or lower lows. Example: If a stock's price is consistently hitting highs, a trader might use the Donchian Channels to identify a possible breakout. If the price breaks above the upper channel line, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend. Conversely, if the price breaks below the lower channel line, it may indicate a potential trend reversal. I typically look for a secondary lower high or higher lower to confirm a reversal and then confirm the breakout with an oscillator as seen in the example below. III. Keltner Channels Understanding Keltner Channels Keltner Channels, developed by Chester Keltner in the 1960s and later modified by Linda Raschke, is a volatility-based indicator that uses the average true range (ATR) to measure price movements. It consists of three lines: an exponential moving average (EMA) and two bands set at a multiple of the ATR above and below the EMA. Using Keltner Channels Keltner Channels are effective for identifying potential trading opportunities during trending markets and can be used in conjunction with other indicators to confirm price movements. The Keltner Channel is a great tool for identifying overbought/ oversold conditions in a trend. This can help traders find better points of entry for a trade. Example: A trader might use Keltner Channels to identify potential pullbacks in a trending market. If the price moves above the upper channel line during an uptrend, it could signal an overbought condition, and the trader might wait for the price to pull back toward the EMA before entering a long position. Similarly, if the price falls below the lower channel line during a downtrend, it might indicate an oversold condition, and the trader could wait for a bounce back toward the EMA before entering a short position. The trader should also verify the bounce with other indicators as shown below. IV. BONUS: Keltner/Bollinger Bands Squeeze Strategy Channels do not have to be exclusively used on their own. The Keltner/Bollinger Bands Squeeze Strategy is a powerful technique that combines the strengths of both Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands to identify potential trading opportunities. By understanding the nuances of this strategy, traders can significantly enhance their trading arsenal and make more informed decisions in the market. The Squeeze: A Sign of Consolidation and Potential Breakout s The Keltner/Bollinger Bands Squeeze occurs when the Bollinger Bands contract within the Keltner Channels, indicating a period of low volatility or consolidation in the market. This "squeeze" can serve as a precursor to significant price breakouts, either on the upside or downside. By closely monitoring this pattern, traders can identify periods of market consolidation and prepare to capitalize on potential breakouts. How to Implement the Keltner/Bollinger Bands Squeeze Strategy To implement this strategy, traders should follow these steps: Overlay the Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands on your chart: Start by adding both Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands to your preferred trading platform's chart. Ensure that the settings of both indicators are adjusted to your desired values. Identify the Squeeze: Look for periods when the Bollinger Bands contract within the Keltner Channels. This signifies a "squeeze" and acts as a sign that the market is experiencing low volatility or consolidation. Monitor for Breakouts: Keep a close eye on the price action during the squeeze. When the Bollinger Bands expand outside of the Keltner Channels, this indicates a potential breakout from the consolidation period. The direction of the breakout (upwards or downwards) will depend on the overall market trend and price action. Enter the Trade: The Keltner/Bollinger Bands Squeeze Strategy can be further enhanced by combining it with other technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence. These complementary indicators can provide additional confirmation of potential breakouts and help traders better gauge market conditions. Once a breakout is confirmed, traders can enter a trade in the direction of the breakout. It's essential to use stop-loss orders and manage risk appropriately since false breakouts can also occur. Exit the Trade: Traders should establish a price target and exit strategy based on their analysis and risk tolerance. This can include setting a specific profit target, using trailing stops, or leveraging other technical indicators to determine when to exit the trade. Conclusion Bollinger Bands, Donchian Channels, and Keltner Channels are all valuable technical indicators for analyzing price movements and identifying potential trading opportunities. When deciding which one is right for you, consider your trading style, preferred timeframes, and the specific characteristics of the markets you trade. It's essential to familiarize yourself with each indicator and practice using them in combination with other tools to enhance your trading strategy. We have even shown that these channels can complement each other to form a more comprehensive strategy. Remember, no single indicator is perfect, and incorporating multiple tools can help you gain a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. Good luck and happy trading! If you enjoyed our content don’t forget to give this post a boost, and follow our page for more trading education!
Education
by LeafAlgo
27
100 Laws of Trading My experience. I started trading futures over two years ago. During this time, I went through all the circles of trading hell. I searched for myself, selected my trading style, put together a trading system bit by bit. Merged. I accumulated personal experience, bit by bit collected information in books in order to get even a millimeter closer to understanding the market. Often came close to giving up. But I did not give up and was rewarded. All this time I have been collecting trading advice in a notebook, which sounded from the best professionals in the world, met in classical literature and was confirmed over and over again by my personal experience. Over time, there were about a hundred such laws, and I decided to call the notebook in which I wrote them down - the Trader's Bible. For a professional, these are banal and obvious things. For a beginner - a lifeline. Rope to grab onto. Road signs on a busy highway. What I missed so much in the beginning. How much money, time and nerves I would save if I had this notebook two years ago ... Today I want to share this experience and give you some motivation if you almost gave up. You will definitely succeed. “It doesn't really matter if you're right or wrong. What matters is how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong." J.Soros. Law 1: Never average a losing trade. Even if it looks like it's about to unfold. Even if the deposit allows. Even if nine times averaged and earned. One day, the tenth time will come and take all your money. He will definitely come. Law 2. Cut losses short. It's better to log in again. Law 3. Never enter a trade without a stop loss. If you are a beginner, do not rely on your endurance and reaction. This habit will save you more than once, trust me. Law 4. A professional differs from a beginner in the ability to wait for a favorable alignment. Do not rush. There is an endless stream of chances ahead, some of which will be quite obvious. Law 5. Do not trade on quiet days and low volumes. Leave this time for rest and self-education. You don't have to trade every day. Law 6. Do not rely on media forecasts, bloggers and "traders" in the comments. This is either manipulation, or outdated information, or personal interpretation of events. Observe information hygiene and learn to think for yourself. Believe me, those who really have significant information do not shoot videos on YouTube and do not argue in chats. Law 7. To make money in the market, it is not necessary to know what will happen next. Anything can happen. This is the hardest thing to understand, but it is this kind of thinking that will lead to the result. Law 8. All you need to make money on the stock exchange is one working model. Do not spray on a hundred techniques and systems. It's not about quantity. Find your working pattern and hone it. He will ensure your old age. Law 9. The result of each individual transaction is random. No matter how good your analysis is, it guarantees absolutely nothing. Get into the habit of uncertainty. You can be wrong ten trades in a row even with the right analysis. And it shouldn't ruin you. Law 10. The market can stay irrational longer than you can pay. Get out of your head the desire to deceive the market. Martingales and other “grails” shake generations of traders out of their pants. You won't be an exception, don't even check. Law 11. After a losing trade, do not dare to recoup. Treat trading like a business, not like playing cards with a friend. Controlled loss is part of this business. Upset, angry? Turn off the exchange, go to the gym - bring the body to exhaustion. Tomorrow there will be new opportunities. Law 12. Madness is doing the same thing over and over again in the hope of a different result. Don't repeat the same mistake twice. Write it down. Analyze. Draw conclusions. Law 13. Do not count and do not look forward to profit in advance. Better think about how much you can lose on this trade, it's sobering. Don't count money in trading at all. All analysis is carried out as a percentage of the deposit. This will relieve stress and distract from unnecessary reflection. Law 14. To begin to succeed, one must almost despair. Almost. But take one more step. To be continued.
Education
by G_Foster
104
The other side of the tradeTrading has this stigma attached to it, everyone thinks they can come and make their millions. The reality is, 90% of new traders lose 90% of their funds in 90 days. I've talked for years about the negative side of trading (trust me, I've done this over 20 years) Trading is often perceived as a wonderful, fabulous lifestyle. Cars, yachts, jets and women! Probably fueled by films like the Wolf of Wall Street. But not many people like admitting to the other side of the traders lifestyle. Of course, it's nowhere near as glamorous - it sure as hell won't get social media likes or follows. But it's there and it's real! There are a couple of main points that I want to touch on, especially for you newer traders coming to find your fortunes. 1) Trading can be boring! Yes, boring as shait. If you are used to having a 9-5, you do not realise the effects (good and bad) on having human interaction throughout the day. You might have a partner you live with, the family. But what about when they go to work or school? You are left with your own thoughts. Yes, this can be dangerous!!! The issues can include lack of motivation, uncertainty in what to do, overthinking. On your bad days, you have nobody to comfort you and on your good days, you have nobody to share the excitement with! Joining communities can be a good fix here, providing you find a good one. This doesn't have to effect your trading, your strategy or anything else - but interaction could save you from the loneliness. The solitary nature of trading can sometimes lead to feelings of isolation and loneliness. Without the support and camaraderie of others in a similar field, it can be challenging to share experiences, discuss strategies, or seek advice. Additionally, the pressure and stress of making high-stakes financial decisions can further contribute to a sense of isolation. 2) STRESS - Stress is a huge factor for a trader. Stress could also stem from the loneliness, stress when dealing with finance is an area where a lot of people suffer, traders and non traders alike. The issue is for traders, stress is often self inflicted. Most new traders come to the market with a view of it's easy, fast paced, exciting and therefore have the perception of making it big. If it was this easy, people wouldn't spend 7 years becoming doctors or lawyers. Instead they would follow the money! Come on, who wouldn't - Yachts n all. It's this popular belief that usually drives traders into the stressful state which becomes the norm until they give up! To counter the loneliness and try to make it big, traders (probably you) I know I did! look at indicators, try to take on as much info as possible! Which takes you down this path. Indicators. there must be a holy grail, a silver bullet? 100% winning strategy? People waste so much time on retail indicators thinking they will be the one to find the edge. You would be better off having a trip to Vegas and playing the first slot machine you spot! The next issue is - too much data or the attempt to obtain too much of it! I remember when my setup matched this below (if not more screens) This is like trying to read 9 books at the same time whilst writing essays in 6 different languages. All of these factors will 100% add to your stress. You might have anxiety when executing a trade, or feel the burden of stress whilst in a trade. Scared to see the numbers go red and too eager when they go green?! Yup been there, done that. So has every trader out there. Stop feeling like this. Creation of a strategy... All you need to help combat these types of stresses, is find an edge. The edge could be very simple - from reading books, stepping away from the charts, viewing higher time frames, moving away from social media influencers. All the way through to mastering one instrument. When you see indicators like the image above, what happens if two are in one direction and the rest in another? You start to argue with yourself, you miss good trades and you end up taking bad ones. This leads to stress and then you realise, yup your lonely! What a cycle to be trapped in! Now how about you flip the thinking here? Less charts to stare at, less indicators to confuse, more time to read, exercise or simply go play golf. Your edge does not need to be technical, fancy or shown on 48 screens. I talked about this in the Tradingview live show the other evening. Here's the link: www.tradingview.com Sometimes less is more and this can combat the stress and golf is always a winner for loneliness. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
HOW TO IDENTIFY ORDER BLOCKSHello traders! Today we are going to look at the pattern Order Blocks, what this pattern means and how to trade it. ✳️ What is Order Block? The largest (from open to close) closest bearish candle to support before a strong impulsive bullish move (last sell candle before the buy candle). The last falling candle before the impulse growth. The high of this candle must be broken by the next candle to confirm it is an order block. The largest (from open to close) closest bullish candle to resistance before a strong impulsive bearish move (the last buy candle before the sell candle). The last rising candle before the impulsive decline. The low of this candlestick must be broken by the next candlestick to confirm that it is an order block. Order blocks are those areas/zones where financial institutions have manipulated the price and where some of their orders are in drawdown. This "footprint" they are leaving is clearly visible in the order block. Price will usually return to these areas and we will react to this in some way. Order block is a sign of big players in the market. ✳️ The idea behind the pattern and why it works The movements triggered by big players leave open positions which must be closed. And in order to do that, the price has to test those levels. Smart money works according to certain algorithms, and we are trying to make money on this. Behind these candlesticks are financial institutions: they deliberately move the market, themselves falling into a drawdown, so they need to return the price to the order block with an imbalance, to reduce losses (to return their open positions to breakeven levels). Why not close manipulative positions earlier? There is no one to cover them. When we close large positions, the price automatically moves in the direction of the order block, and it is convenient for the large capital to close the previous manipulated positions, which causes a bounce which we want to jump into. In other words, we find a liquidity gathering point and wait for the return to it. Order Block is a level to enter or exit. ✳️ Order Block Trading Strategy Mitigation is a test of a supply/demand area. In our case a block of orders. Closing of old manipulative positions. 1) We are looking for a block of orders. 2) Were the stops pulled out (collecting liquidity, breaking through the obvious highs and lows)? If no, then it is not an order block, let it go. You are not sure? Do not enter. 3) If yes, we consider entering. A bullish block of orders: We enter - on price returning to this candle (at least to the high). Stop - for low. Take - the nearest level. A bearish block of orders: Entry - on the return of the price to this candle (at least to the low). Stop - behind the high. Take - the nearest level. Each Order block can be tested only once.
Education
by DeGRAM
39
Trading with the ADX: Identifying Entry and Exit PointsIn the previous post, we discussed the basics of the Average Directional Index (ADX), a popular technical indicator used by traders to determine the strength of a market trend. In this continuation, we will dive deeper into the ADX and explore various strategies for identifying entry and exit points in a trade. By understanding these tactics, you can enhance your trading skills and make more informed decisions. 1. Using ADX and DI lines crossover One effective way to trade using the ADX indicator is to observe the crossover of the Directional Indicator (DI) lines. The DI lines consist of the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI). When the +DI line crosses above the -DI line, it signals a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, when the -DI line crosses above the +DI line, it indicates a possible selling opportunity. It's essential to remember that the ADX only measures the strength of the trend, not its direction. Therefore, traders should combine the ADX and DI lines to make better trading decisions. 2. ADX level and trend strength The ADX level can help traders determine the strength of a trend. Generally, an ADX value below 20 indicates a weak or non-existent trend, while a value above 20 suggests a strong trend. When the ADX rises above 20, it may be an opportune time to enter a trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Conversely, when the ADX falls below 20, traders should consider exiting their positions as the trend weakens. 3. ADX slope and momentum Another useful aspect of the ADX indicator is its slope. A rising ADX slope indicates that the trend is gaining momentum, offering a potentially favorable entry point. On the other hand, a declining ADX slope suggests that the trend is losing momentum, signaling a possible exit point. To trade using the ADX slope, traders can apply a moving average to the ADX line. When the ADX line crosses above the moving average, it signifies increasing momentum and a potential entry point. Conversely, when the ADX line crosses below the moving average, it indicates decreasing momentum and a possible exit point. 4. Combining ADX with other technical indicators The ADX works best when paired with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or Relative Strength Index (RSI). By combining these tools, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of market conditions and make more informed decisions. For example, traders can use moving averages to determine the trend's direction and the ADX to gauge its strength. If the price is above the moving average and the ADX is above 20, traders might consider entering a long position. Conversely, if the price is below the moving average and the ADX is above 20, traders may consider a short position. Conclusion The ADX is an invaluable tool for traders, helping them identify the strength of market trends and potential entry and exit points. By understanding the various strategies discussed in this post, traders can enhance their trading decisions and potentially increase their success rate. Remember that no single indicator guarantees success, and it's essential to combine the ADX with other technical analysis tools and sound risk management practices. With proper application and a disciplined approach, the ADX can become an indispensable part of your trading toolbox.
MEducation
by LeafAlgo
39
Tradingview Volume toolsI've been using Tradingview for just over 8 years now. When I initially started using it I was transitioning from using Footprint tools. I would use techniques that in essence allowed you to see inside a candle. Coupled with techniques such as "DOM" Depth of Market and Cumulative Delta. After a while you get to see some of this stuff without the need of indicators. Tradingview have steadily added various tools to the platform and with a little help from being able to code your own tools it's made it an interesting space to play. So here's a quick overview on the abilities, encase you have yet to explore. This is not a lesson on volume as such, just educating you as to what the possibilities can be. Most would have seen or at least know about the volume on the X axis. This simply gives an idea of the happening of that particular candle, of course things can alter or yield different results based on settings and time frames. we've taken the time to incorporate this simple volume in one of our own indicators. Which is coupled with a Stochastic and a few other bits. It can also be used standalone for spotting divergence for example. You can see how the volume up and price up yet in the third price move up, volume has lowered. There are also various styles of showing this volume data - one such tool is Weiss waves. These are great in conjunction with techniques such as Elliott Waves and Wyckoff. I've shown this over the last two years here on TradingView and both of these techniques have been very useful on Bitcoin during this time. I mentioned CVD the cumulative Volume Delta, here you can see this under the Weiss Wave indicator. Like I said, have a play around with these on your own charts. You will spot some interesting things once you get to know them. Try various instruments as well as timeframes. More recently I posted a video on using Chat GPT to build a pinescript indicator. Here's the link to that post. Well, I've taken that a few steps further. What started as an idea in terms of using Footprint, X axis volume and then what's called periodic volume profile. I personally like to turn the bars/candles off when I got this on. Here's another view - this is the session volume profile and periodic volume combined without the candles being visible. This new indicator extracts various pieces of data and paints key levels based on my old trading style. As you can see today, this is showing like a magnet where the key levels in Bitcoin are likely to be. There's a bit more to it than that but in essence, its what I am showing here. To finish with you have two other tools here on Tradingview - one which is fixed range volume, just as it says on the tin. You can see volume inside a range you determine. I have used a low and a high here to find the PoC - Point of Control. Then finally, you have visible range; this I tend to use less personally, but I know many people like it. This allows you to view the volume profile based on what you have visible on the chart. As you can imagine, as you zoom in n out, it can change. Like I said, this is not a lesson on each tool - it's an intro to, for you to spend the time to play around with these tools. Feel free to ask questions below. Enjoy the rest of the week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
18
How Much Gold Does Your Portfolio Need?Economists make forecasts to make weathermen look good. Trying to forecast trends in complex systems is never easy. As with weather, financial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors which can make prediction akin to gambling. Time in the market beats timing the market so a far safer bet is building a diversified and informed portfolio. As mentioned in our previous paper , gold is a crucial addition to any well-diversified portfolio. Gold offers investors the benefits of resilience during crises, diversification, and low volatility while also being a good hedge against inflation. With crisis ever-present, from pandemics and geo-political conflict to financial instability and recession, uncertainty is on everyone’s lips, including central banks which bought a record 1,135 tonnes of gold last year. Central Banks have shown no signs of slowdown going into 2023, buying 74t in Jan and 52t in Feb, the strongest start to central bank buying since 2010. It is clear why, with rising global inflation due to 2 years of unprecedented QE. A decade of cheap money has its costs which are coming back to bite both consumers and central banks. This is now being played with collapsing banks and crumbling businesses. Though governments may term these exceptions, they’re the inevitable consequence of hiking rates too fast. And even though inflation has now started to cool, it is proving stubborn and the risk of recession looms. In crisis, institutions and individuals rush to gold. It’s no wonder then that gold prices spiked in March nearing an All-Time-High above USD 2,000/oz. Gold continues to trade above the key 2000 level even in April. Even now crises show no sign of slowing. Recession talks have become commonplace and phantoms of 2008 haunt with bank collapses. The world is increasingly moving towards reshoring and friendshoring, and de-dollarization is talked about more and more. It is almost inevitable that gold will break its all-time-high soon. But, buying gold is the easy part, in fact, our previous paper covered 6 Ways to Invest in Gold. Managing gold as part of a larger portfolio is more nuanced. Allocating the right amount, finding the right entry, and knowing when to cash out are all critical. This paper aims to address two questions – 1. What are the key drivers of gold prices in this decade 2. How should investors use gold in balancing portfolios to navigate turbulent times? What Propels Gold After Its All Time High? SVB and Credit Suisse pushed it to its brink. In fact, spot prices in India, Australia, and the UK sailed even above their All-Time-High. But what propels gold now? Financial Instability Was Credit Suisse the End? “The current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come.” - Jamie Dimon Unfortunately, Credit Suisse was likely just a symptom of the larger problem. 2-years of near-free money has inevitably led others to make risky bets which catch up to them during periods of QT. Additionally, Credit Suisse and SVB’s collapse were both set off by an unprecedentedly aggressive rate hiking cycle. Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they try to control runaway inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Higher rates for longer increase the risks of financial instability. Stubborn Inflation and Recession Risks Stubborn inflation? Wasn’t inflation on its way down after almost a year? Yes and No. Although yearly inflation has definitely cooled in most countries from their peak last year, inflation continues to tick up month-by-month above the targets that central banks have set for themselves. It is not expected to reach below their targets even before 2025 in many countries. This is because although energy and commodity prices have cooled with demand waning, core inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. Additionally, food and energy prices are still volatile. On the back of this, recession risks remain high. Recently released FOMC meeting minutes showed that officials expect a recession in the second half of the year. A recession in many countries now seems inevitable. Gold shines during recession and high-inflation environments. High Interest Rates Wasn’t the Fed done hiking? Currently, CME’s FedWatch tool shows a ~72% chance of another 25bps hike next month despite the surprisingly low US CPI print. Does another 25bps matter? What’s more important is that 25bps is the peak rate and most central banks are calling this summit a pause and not a pivot. As such, rates will likely remain high for the remainder of 2023. Gold tends to perform well during high interest rate and risk-off environments. Escalating Tensions, Friendshoring, and De-Dollarization Last but definitely not least are central banks and their gold-buying binge. Though some of this can be explained by the ultra-high inflation. It is undeniably also driven by rising political tensions. The conflict in Ukraine continues to rage and the US extend its trade war against China with the CHIPS act. This is driving many of the largest economies to reshore and friendshore key supply chains. This also means relying less on the USD which can be weaponized by the US. De-dollarization has been underway for the last 23 years as the share of USD holdings in foreign exchange reserves has declined from 71.5% to 58.3% over the past 23 years. Current conditions make it more likely that the trend will accelerate. Gold inevitably benefits from all of this as it is one of the only assets that no other central bank can print or freeze. All of these factors will likely drive gold in the coming decade. But instead of setting a price target, investors can be prudent and methodical by properly allocating it as part of a larger portfolio. Using Gold in a Portfolio From 2000 until now, the following portfolios would deliver: Since 2000, gold has been the best performing asset out of the 3 main components of a basic portfolio – Large Cap stocks (SPY), Treasury Bonds (10Y), and Gold. Gold price has risen 609% compared to SPY at +193%. Investing in 10-year maturity treasury bonds would have netted investors 110% during these 23 years. As such, larger portfolio allocation towards gold would have yielded investors far more during this period. However, this comes at the downside of higher volatility. Gold has had an average 12-month rolling volatility of 15.8% over the last 23 years, slightly higher than SPY’s 14%. Still, not all volatility is bad, especially if the returns outweigh the risk. Volatility to the upside can be beneficial to investors. In order to measure the returns from the portfolio after accounting for higher volatility-associated risk, investors can measure the risk-adjusted returns using the Sharpe Ratio and Sortino Ratio. Sharpe Ratio measures the amount of excess return generated by taking on additional volatility-related risk. The higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better the portfolio is performing relative to its risk. The figure below contains the Sharpe Ratio for each of the portfolios across the last 23 years. Since each year had a different risk-free rate due to changing monetary policy, the Sharpe ratios vary for every year and there are periods during which gold-heavy portfolios have highest Sharpe ratios and others where it has the lowest. This highlights gold's sensitivity to changes in monetary policy. Sortino Ratio also measures risk-adjusted returns like the Sharpe Ratio however it only considers the risk of downside volatility. In other words, it measures return for every unit of downside risk. The figure below contains the Sortino Ratio for each of the portfolios. A key difference between the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios can be seen in the readings for 2009. Sharpe Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio is the lowest in 2009 due to high volatility in gold prices. However, since this was volatility to the upside, the Sortino Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio in 2009 is the highest. In 2023, a Gold heavy portfolio has performed the best and has the highest Sharpe and Sortino Ratio due to gold's relative overperformance amid the banking crisis. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by mintdotfinance
4
Unpopular trading advice: fall in LOVE with one pair ONLYIn a world where you can love anyone and anything your heart desires, fall in love with ONE currency pair ONLY. The notion of "the more pairs I trade, the more money I will make" is false. If you wanna be a consistently profitable trader, it is more beneficial to focus on a small selection of securities and master them, and there is a concrete reason for that. Concentrating on one or two currency pairs instead of trading every single major, minor, and exotic pair will be more efficient, less confusing, and more profitable. When you study every single movement of any given pair, you get more experienced at trading it and you make more rational decisions and analyses. Looking at the chart illustration, we might observe the trading log of all transactions we executed in April and May so far. With 8 trade entries and all of them being EUR/GBP, a total return of +9.6% has been generated constituting an approximate win rate percentage of 70%. Obviously, not every trade resulted in being profitable as we encountered 2 losses and a breakeven closure. Nevertheless, as we always indicate, trading is a game of big numbers and probabilities. Instead of trading 10 securities, we have only been focusing on one single currency pair recently. One crucial thing that needs to be noted is the following: not always will the one specific currency pair of your choice provide you with clear swing opportunities as the example of EUR/GBP portrayed on the graph. Periods of long and dull consolidations, indecisions, and some other moments will take place and make a derivative unlikeable and less efficient to trade for a period of time. Therefore, always have one or two other trades on the radar to eventually monitor and analyse along with the currency pair of your preference. Love will save the world. Investroy.
Education
by Investroy
72
From A to D:How to Use the ABCD Pattern to Forecast Market MovesAre you familiar with the ABCD trading pattern? In this article, I will provide a comprehensive explanation of the ABCD trading pattern, including its characteristics, how to identify it, and how to use it in trading. So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the information provided in this article. The ABCD ( AB=CD ) pattern , It's a harmonic pattern that is easily recognizable on a price chart and is composed of four points. This pattern follows a specific sequence of market movements that traders can use to predict potential price swings in the future. The ABCD pattern can be applied in various market conditions, including both bullish and bearish markets, and can be used to speculate on the movement of different forex pairs by simultaneously selling one currency and buying another. However, it's important to keep in mind that the ABCD pattern should not be the sole basis for making trading decisions. It should be used as a tool to inform your decisions. The first step in opening a position using the ABCD pattern is to identify the pattern on a price chart. Multiday charts can provide insight into the behavior of forex markets over an extended period. You can use daily, hourly, or minute-by-minute charts to spot the pattern, but it's crucial to choose a time horizon that aligns with your goals. For instance, traders looking to hold positions for days or weeks may prefer daily charts instead of minute charts. Once you have selected the appropriate chart type, you can search for the ABCD pattern to identify bullish or bearish signals. Let's now take a closer look at how the AB=CD pattern forms and how to spot it: When identifying the ABCD pattern, traders focus on the legs or moves between points. The moves in the direction of the overall trend are denoted as AB and CD, while BC represents the retracement. Once you think you have identified an ABCD pattern on a price chart, the next step is to use Fibonacci ratios to validate it. This process can also help you pinpoint where the pattern may complete and where to consider opening your position. The "classic" ABCD pattern follows a specific sequence of market movements, with the following rules: In a "classic" ABCD pattern, the BC line should ideally be 61.8% or 78.6% of AB. To determine this, traders often use the Fibonacci retracement tool on the initial move from point A to point B. The BC line should end at either the 61.8% or 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of AB. This helps confirm the validity of the ABCD pattern and gives an idea of where to potentially open a position. Once the BC leg of the pattern is complete, traders would typically look for the CD leg to reach the 127.2% or 161.8% extension of the BC leg. At this point, traders might consider entering a sell position if the pattern is bearish or a buy position if the pattern is bullish. The ABCD pattern extension occurs when the CD leg extends beyond the typical 127.2% and reaches 161.8%. This indicates that the price trend may continue in the same direction for a longer period, providing a potentially profitable trading opportunity for traders who have correctly identified the pattern. It's important to note that this extension is not always reliable and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to confirm the validity of the trade. Note: In strongly trending markets, the retracement (BC) may not reach the usual 61.8% or 78.6% of AB, but only 38.2% or 50%. It's important to adapt to market conditions and adjust your analysis accordingly. Moreover: During the move from A to B, the market should not exceed either A or B. During the move from B to C, the market should not exceed either B or C. During the move from C to D, the market should not exceed either C or D. For a bullish ABCD, point C must be lower than A, and D must be lower than B. For a bearish ABCD, point C must be higher than A, and D must be higher than B. To identify an ABCD pattern on your TradingView trading chart, follow these six steps: 1 ) Log in to your TradingView trading account and open a market chart. 2 ) Locate the AB line. Remember that this move should be completely contained within points A and B. 3 ) Locate the BC retracement. This should reach either the 61.8% or 78.6% level of the move from A to B. 4 ) Draw the CD line. Using the AB and BC lines, you should be able to predict where point D will fall. CD will generally be equivalent to AB and either 127.8% or 161.8% of BC in both price and time. 5 ) Keep an eye out for price gaps and wide-ranging bars in the CD leg. These can indicate that an extension is forming, implying that CD may be longer than AB. 6 ) Trade the possible retracement at point D. If you've identified a bearish ABCD pattern, consider opening a sell position. On the other hand, if you've found a bullish one, consider buying. And here are a couple of examples: I hope you found this guide on identifying the ABCD pattern useful. Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below, and don't forget to like and follow me if you found this guide helpful.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
44
May the Fourth Be With You - And your Stop losses!Star Wars has been around since 1977 which was written and directed by George Lucas. During that time, there have been phenomenal quotes, lessons and adventures that have been shared. Instead of telling you different lessons Star Wars can teach you about trading. How about I share some quotes and how you can apply them? Here are the ones I find are the most applicable. #1: "I find your lack of faith disturbing." Use this as a reminder to stay confident in your trades, even when the market is unpredictable. Have faith in your strategy. Have faith in your commitment. Have faith in your strong mindset. #2: "Your focus determines your reality." Stay focused on your trading goals and strategy. It’s not about what others see. It’s not about what others feel. It’s about you in your own work station, planning, preparing and executing accordingly. #3: "Do or do not, there is no try." Commit fully to your trades, rather than hesitating or second-guessing. When it’s lined up, ACTION. When you see a trade setups, write them down and prepare for execution. Don’t try… DO! #4: "Fear is the path to the dark side." Stay level-headed and not let fear or panic drive your trading decisions. Fear doesn’t exist. Only danger does. We are fearful most times in our head when there is no apparent danger. Remember this when you feel fear. #5: "In my experience, there's no such thing as luck." Successful trading is based on skill, probabilities and strategy, not luck. #"6: The Force will be with you, always." Here’s a reminder that your skills and strategy will guide you through both good and bad trading times. In this case the force is your proven strategy, your will, your commitment and your strong mind. #7: "You must unlearn what you have learned." Be open-minded and flexible when it comes to adapting your trading strategy. We learn as sheeple to buy low sell high. While I have gone against the idea and instead BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER. Also, when everyone buys, is normally where the Smart Money offloads theirs. And when retail dumb money sells, that’s where Smart money BUYS. Did you find these useful? Which one resonated the most with you?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
13
When Less is MoreLet’s say you are trying to make a tough decision, you know like everyone did in their life. You've got loads of information at your fingertips, but how do you know what's most important? Should you spend hours analyzing every detail, using all the information, flooding your brain with the information or should you trust your gut and take a leap of faith? It turns out this is a classic problem that experts have been studying for years. Their findings might surprise you. You might think that more information is always better, I once felt the same. But that's not necessarily true. In fact, having too much information can actually lead to worse decisions and overconfidence in your abilities or simply just make your head hurt. Let's look at a study where 25 experienced bookmakers were asked to predict the top five horses in 45 races. The bookmakers were given a list of 88 variables commonly found on a past performance chart of a racehorse, and they had to rank the importance of each one. Then, they were given past data on the races in increments of 5, 10, 20, and 40 variables, which they had previously selected as the most important. What did the study find? Well, when the bookmakers only had five pieces of information, their accuracy and confidence were closely related. But as they received more information, their accuracy plateaued, and their confidence skyrocketed. With 40 pieces of information, the bookmakers' confidence was over 30%, even though their accuracy remained the same. In other words, more information doesn't lead to more accuracy; it just leads to higher overconfidence. A similar study looked at the ability of college football fans to predict the outcomes of 15 NCAA games. Participants had to demonstrate their knowledge of football before the study, and they were given a range of statistics, such as fumbles, turnover margin, and yards gained, to help them make their predictions. The computer model was given the same data to see if more information would lead to better predictions. So how did it go? The computer model's accuracy increased as more information was added, but the human experts' accuracy did not improve with more information. In fact, their accuracy remained about the same, regardless of whether they had six or 30 pieces of information. But just like the bookmakers, their confidence increased with the amount of information available, even though it didn't actually make them more accurate. Related to stock analysis, a study was conducted where financial analysts were given the task to forecast fourth-quarter earnings in 45 cases. The information was presented in three different formats. The first format consisted of the past three quarters of EPS, net sales, and stock price, which is the baseline data. The second format included baseline data plus redundant or irrelevant information The third format included baseline data plus non redundant information that should have improved forecasting ability, such as the fact that the dividend was increased. The analysts were asked to provide their forecast and their confidence in their forecast. Interestingly, both the redundant and nonredundant information significantly increased the forecast error, meaning that more information did not lead to better accuracy. However, the analysts' self-reported confidence ratings for each of their forecasts increased significantly with the amount of information available. This suggests that more information did not help the analysts make better forecasts, but it did make them more overconfident in their predictions. So what does all this mean? Well, it suggests that sometimes, less is more. When it comes to decision-making in trading or investing, it's important to consider the quality of the information you have, not just the quantity. This reminds me of Joel Greenblatt, a prominent American investor and hedge fund manager, who has shown that when it comes to picking stocks, less is often more. In fact, Greenblatt's strategy is refreshingly simple: he focuses on only two metrics - return on capital employed (ROCE) and earnings yield - to identify undervalued companies that have the potential to deliver strong returns. While this may seem like an overly simplistic approach in today's world of big data and complex algorithms, Greenblatt's track record speaks for itself. His investment firm, Gotham Capital, reportedly generated an average annualized return of 40% from 1985 to 2005, a remarkable feat that many attribute to his disciplined use of these two key metrics. In a world where we are bombarded with endless amounts of data and information, it's refreshing to see that sometimes the simplest approach can be the most effective.
SP:SPXEducation
by WayanEko
55
CBOT Soybean Complex: An IntroductionCBOT: Soybean ( CBOT:ZS1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ), Soybean Oil ( CBOT:ZL1! ) Today, I am starting a new series on CBOT soybeans, one of the most liquid commodities contracts in the world. In March 2023, Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil together traded 14.0 million lots, contributing to 42.6% of CME Group agricultural futures and options volume, and 2.0% of overall Exchange monthly volume. Soybean Market Fundamentals Soybeans are the world’s largest source of animal protein feed and the second largest source of vegetable oil. Soybeans are the most-traded agricultural commodities, comprising more than 10% of the total value of global agriculture trade. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), global soybean production for 2022/2023 crop year is 369.6 million metric tons. Let’s visualize this: If we were to distribute the entire crops to the world population evenly, each person would get approximately 46 kilograms of soybeans. The U.S., Brazil and Argentina are the largest soybean producers, accounting for 80% of the global production. The U.S. is the single largest soybean producer and exporter, harvesting 4.3 billion bushels a year and exporting 47% of it, according to the WASDE. The heart of U.S. soybean production is the Midwest. In the main part of the soybean belt, planting takes place from late April through June, with harvest beginning in late September and ending in late November. About two thirds of the total soybean crop is processed, or crushed, into soybean oil and soybean meal. The term “crush” refers to the physical process of converting soybeans into its oil and meal byproducts. The crush spread refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. It represents the gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. When a bushel of soybeans weighing 60 pounds is crushed, the typical results are: • 11 pounds of soybean oil (18%) • 44 pounds of soybean meal (73%) • 4 pounds of hulls (6%) • 1 pound of waste (2%) Soybean meal is used by feed manufacturers as a prime ingredient in high-protein animal feed for poultry and livestock. It is further processed into human foods, such as soy grits and flour, and is a key component in meat or dairy substitutes, like soymilk and tofu. After initial processing, soybean oil is further refined and used in cooking oils, margarines, mayonnaise and salad dressings and industrial chemicals. Soybean oil may also be left unprocessed and used in the production of biodiesel fuels. Exports are big business for U.S. soybean farmers. According to the data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, soybean exports totaled $6.9 billion in the first two months of 2023, contributing to 1.4% of all U.S. exports of goods and services. Soybean exports have increased dramatically since 2000 as the demand for meat and poultry grew in Europe and Asia, particularly in China. CBOT Soybeans Futures and Options Soybean futures began trading at the Chicago Board of Trade in 1932, followed by futures on its byproducts: Soybean Oil in 1946 and Soybean Meal in 1947. Soybean (ZS) futures are physically delivered contracts based on No. 2 yellow soybeans. Each contract has a notional value of 5,000 bushels, equivalent to 136 metric tons. Soybean contracts are listed for the months of Nov., Jan., Mar., May, Jul., Aug., and Sep., projecting out about 3.5 years in the future. You may have heard of the terms “New Crop” and “Old Crop”. The former refers to crops that have not been harvested. For soybeans, it’s Nov. contract (ZSX3), which coincides with the harvest season. For contract months May, Jul., Aug., and Sep. 2023, soybeans available for sales are from the previous crop year, hence the name “Old Crop”. Soybean options (OZS) have a contract unit of 1 ZS futures contract. It is deliverable by the corresponding futures contract, with the last trading day set at one month prior to futures expiration month. Soybean Meal (ZM) futures are also physically delivered contracts. Each contract has a notional value of 100 short tons, equivalent to 91 metric tons. Soybean Meal contracts are listed for the months of Jan., Mar., May., Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct., and Dec. A total of 25 contracts are listed simultaneously. Because of the use of soybean meal for animal feed, its demand is closely aligned with the livestock and poultry industry. For the export market, instead of soybean meal, buyers usually buy soybeans and process them in their home country. Soybean Meal options (OZM) have a contract unit of 1 ZM futures contract and are deliverable by the corresponding futures contract. Soybean Oil (ZL) futures are physically delivered contracts. Each contract has a notional value of 60,000 pounds, equivalent to 27.2 metric tons. Soybean Oil contracts are listed for the months of Jan., Mar., May., Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct., and Dec. A total of 27 contracts are listed simultaneously. While soybean oil is a leading ingredient for edible oil, oilseeds also include rapeseed, sunflower, sesame, groundnut, mustard, coconut, cotton seeds and palm oil. Whenever one of them becomes too expensive, food companies would substitute it with a cheaper ingredient. Hence, soybean oil price is highly correlated with the other oilseed products. Use Cases for CBOT Soybeans Contracts At every stage of the soybean production chain, from planting, growing and harvest, to exporting and processing, market participants face the risk of adverse price movements. Prices of soybean and its byproducts continuously fluctuate, largely determined by crop production cycles, weather, livestock production cycles, and ongoing shifts in global market demand. In this section, I will illustrate how producer, storer, processor and soybean user could use CBOT soybeans futures and options to hedge market risks. Soybean Farmer (Producer) When a US soybean farmer plants the crops in April, he is said to have a Long Cash position. The farmer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price during the November harvest season. To hedge the price risk, our farmer could enter a Short Futures position now, and buy back and offset the futures when he is ready to sell the crops. Since the cash market and futures market are highly correlated, loss or gain in the cash market will be largely offset by the gain or loss in the futures market. The farmer is left with basis risk, which is adverse changes of the cash-futures spread. It is usually much smaller than the outright price risk. In the context of futures trading, notably commodities, basis refers to the difference between the spot (cash) price of a commodity and the price of a futures contract for that same commodity. Grain Elevator (Storer) After the crop is harvested, farmer or merchandiser would usually store the soybeans in a grain elevator and wait for the right time and price to sell. Soybeans could be stored for a year but would incur monthly storage costs. The decision to store depends on whether expected future price gains outweigh the storage costs. The merchandizer is exposed to the risk of falling soybean price, which would cause his soybean inventory (old crop) to decline in value. To hedge the price risks, he could establish a Short Futures position for the expected period of storage and buy it back when he is ready to sell. Oilseed Processor For soybean processing mill, crush spread represents the gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. It is exposed to the risk of rising soybean price where meal and oil prices fail to catch up. Soybeans trade in bushels, soybean meal trades in short tons and soybean oil trades in pounds. The prices of the three commodities need to be converted to a common unit for an accurate calculation. A bushel of soybeans produces about 44 pounds of soybean meal. Since Soybean Meal futures are priced per ton, multiplying the meal price by 0.022 represents the meal price per 44 pounds. That same bushel of soybeans also produces 11 pounds of soybean oil. Since Soybean Oil futures are priced per pound, multiplying the soybean oil price by 0.11 represents the oil price per 11 pounds. (www.cmegroup.com) Processor could lock in the crush margin by a crush spread trade. To ease the difficulty of constructing and executing the spread, CME Group facilitates the board crush that consists of a total of 30 contracts; 10 Soybean, 11 Soybean Meal, and 9 Soybean Oil. Livestock Farmer (User) Large-scale farms usually buy corn, soybean meal and other ingredients to produce their own feed. Farmers are exposed to the risk of rising ingredient costs. They could hedge the price risk by establishing long positions in CBOT corn and soybean meal futures. For hog farmers, gross production profit is represented by the Hog Crush Margin. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). In the futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. This concludes Part 1 of our introduction to CBOT Soybean complex. In Part 2, I plan to discuss major reports that move the soybean markets: • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) • USDA Prospective Plantings Report • USDA Grain Stocks Report • CFTC Commitment of Traders Report Happy Trading. (To be continued) Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZS1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
5
Quick Guide to Understanding Support and ResistanceHello dear @TradingView community! Have you ever heard of the concept of "support and resistance" in trading? It's actually one of the most widely used concepts in trading! However, it's interesting to note that everyone seems to have their own idea of how to measure support and resistance. So, let's go back to basics. Imagine a zigzag pattern that's moving up - this is known as a "bull market." When the price moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back becomes resistance. Resistance levels indicate where there will be a surplus of sellers. On the other hand, when the price continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. Support levels indicate where there will be a surplus of buyers. In this way, resistance and support are continually formed as the price moves up and down over time. You might be wondering how to actually trade using support and resistance. One way is to "trade the bounce" - meaning to buy when the price falls towards support, and sell when the price rises towards resistance. Another way is to "trade the break" - buy when the price breaks up through resistance, and sell when the price breaks down through support. But how do you know when support and resistance levels have actually been broken? It's important to note that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers. Often times, you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. To filter out false breakouts, it's helpful to think of support and resistance more as "zones" rather than concrete numbers. One way to find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. This helps you focus on intentional movements of the market rather than its reflexes. There are also some interesting tidbits about support and resistance - for example, when the price passes through resistance, that resistance could potentially become support. And the more often price tests a level of resistance or support without breaking it, the stronger the area of resistance or support becomes. So there you have it - a quick and easy guide to understanding support and resistance in crypto trading!
Education
by Vestinda
44
VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part IIPRIMARY CHART: S&P 500 (SPX) with VIX/VIX3M ratio in subgraph on a weekly time frame Tricks for Reading the VIX Part I SquishTrade's original 2022 article on VIX entitled "Tricks for Reading the VIX" covered the basic concepts of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) to aid in understanding and interpreting VIX and its behavior relative to the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ). It also explained generally how VIX values are derived, reviewed a few historical examples, and identified the historical mean (20 VIX) as well as some outliers. Furthermore, the original piece delved into the usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX. But in its later sections, it explained how divergences from this usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX may distinguish lasting market bottoms from interim trading lows. If interested, the following link provides the original article on VIX. A couple of points from this original article on VIX may be beneficial to readers who are less familiar with VIX. VIX is a measure of implied volatility for SPX derived from the pricing of a wide range of options prices with approximately 30 days to expiration. Specifically, only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration are included. CBOE introduced the VIX in 1993 to measure the options market's expectation of implied volatility from at-the-money SPX index options (where strikes of the options are at or very close to where the underlying index price is trading). But ten years later (2003), CBOE updated the VIX formula to track not only at-the-money options, but a wide range of SPX options focusing now on out-of-the-money strikes. CBOE's website contains a helpful FAQ on VIX here . A relevant excerpt with more detail on how VIX is calculated is available in a footnote (FN 1) at the end of this post. The last two concepts for this introduction are important. SPX implied volatility, which is what VIX is intended to measure, and realized volatility should be distinguished as they are not the same. And VIX index values tend toward mean-reversion in the long term rather than trending action. But trends within VIX can nevertheless be identified within the broader context of its mean-reverting character. SPY_Master has an excellent chart covering a recent VIX trend shown as Supplementary Chart A: Supplementary Chart A VIX/VIX3M: Tricks for Reading the VIX Part II In this sequel to the original post, SquishTrade will cover the VIX/VIX3M ratio. To understand this ratio, it is important to understand basic concepts about VIX, its interpretation, and its inverse relationship as well as excepts to that relationship, which topics are covered in the prior article or elsewhere on trustworthy financial websites including CBOE's. VIX3M Basics Furthermore, VIX3M is vital to understanding the VIX/VIX3M ratio. VIX3M is essentially a 3-month forward implied volatility index for SPX. CBOE's brief description of VIX3M index follows: "The Cboe 3-Month Volatility IndexSM (VIX3M) is designed to be a constant measure of 3-month implied volatility of the S&P 500® (SPX) Index options. (On September 18, 2017 the ticker symbol for the Cboe 3-Month Volatility Index was changed from “VXV” to “VIX3M”).The VIX3M Index has tended to be less volatile than the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX®), which measures one-month implied volatility. Using the VIX3M and VIX indexes together provides useful insight into the term structure of S&P 500 (SPX) option implied volatility." The term-structure of implied volatility (IV) means the relationship, or comparison, between different implied-volatility measures based on different terms (time periods) for measuring implied volatility such as a one-month period, three-month period, six-month period, or one-year period. Term structure can be also understood by remembering that this term is used to describe the yield curve, varying interest rates on risk-free government bonds (same type of security) with different maturities ranging from short term to long term. In short, the ratio of VIX/VIX3M allows insight into the shorter end of the IV term structure by allowing investors and traders to see both the 30-day (one-month) and the 90-day (three-month) outlook for expected volatility for SPX based on its index options premiums. VIX and VIX3M Comparison VIX3M and VIX can be distinguished based on the time frame as discussed in the prior paragraphs. One is a constant measure of approximately 30-day IV for SPX, and the other is a constant measure of approximately 3-month IV for SPX. VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. The exception occurs at significant SPX lows, including interm trading lows both in bull-market retracements and in bear markets, and in more lasting bear-market lows. VIX tends to be more volatile than VIX3M. This is true even though VIX3M tends to have slightly higher values. The final point of comparison between VIX and VIX3M is that two indices are highly correlated as one might expect. This can be seen from placing them both on a chart together. Try placing them both on a chart together in TradingView, which may help some visualize and remember the close relationship between VIX and VIX3M by working with the symbols themselves. It's relatively easy to do in a couple steps. Load a chart of VIX. Then click the plus symbol next to the ticker symbol on the left upper corner of the TradingView chart screen, ad then add VIX3M to the chart. Be sure to click "New Price Scale" option when selecting VIX3M as the new symbol to be compared. VIX/VIX3M Ratio Interpretation The Primary Chart above shows the VIX/VIX3M ratio over the past six years of market history. This ratio is included in the subgraph below the SPX price chart. This chart uses a weekly time frame to ensure the data can be viewed over several years with ease. Notice how peaks in this ratio correlate to some extent with lows in SPX. Interestingly, peaks were higher in the left half of the chart between 2018 and 2020. Peaks in the current bear market have been lower relative to prior peaks in this ratio. Many peaks have been labeled on the Primary Chart for ease of reference. As discussed, VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. This is because VIX3M considers longer-dated option prices than VIX considers. To understand the VIX/VIX3M ratio, it helps to focus on the exception to the general rule that VIX3M tends to have higher values than VIX. The exception occurs typically when an SPX selloff causes a spike higher in VIX relative to VIX3M. Why does VIX spike higher on a relative basis, causing the ratio to rise above 1.00 / 1.10? When short-term panic occurs in markets around trading lows (or final lows as well), VIX outperforms VIX3M because VIX focuses on 30-day IV and VIX3M focuses on 90-day IV (longer-term on the IV term structure). This causes the term structure to invert briefly when VIX rises above VIX3M (which is the same as VIX3M trading at a discount to VIX). When VIX spikes above VIX3M even briefly, it shows that the market expects IV farther out on the term structure at three months to be lower than current implied volatility levels. In plain English, this means the market expects volatility to fall in several months relative to current 30-day forward levels (based on SPX options prices 23 to 37 days until expiration). And when the IV term structure normalizes as it always does after an inversion, meaning that short-term vol is lower than longer-term vol generally, this means that VIX has to fall relative to VIX3M. And remember that when VIX falls, SPX rises given the usual inverse relationship between the two. Don't forget that exceptions to this usual inverse relationship occur when VIX and SPX move in tandem, and such aberrations in the normal VIX-SPX relationship are crucial to notice as discussed in the original 2022 article on VIX. Finally, here is a chart showing a close-up view of the bear market starting in January 2022 with VIX/VIX3M shown simultaneously. The highs in this ratio were lower than prior highs at market lows over the prior decade or two. Highs have been approximately 1.05 to 1.11. Does this mean vol sellers are more opportunistic and effective? Or does it mean that we haven't seen a capitulatory low? Either way, it helps to see the current bear market levels. Enjoy! Supplementary Chart B Please see footnote 2 (FN 2) for this section on interpreting VIX/VIX3M. FOOTNOTES FN 1 Note that the formula is complicated and most likely accessible only to those still in higher-level math concentrations in their education, or those working continuously in a math field. The rest of us who have seen a few years pass since our math education must rely on the detailed verbal explanation of the formula. The formula, moreover, is unnecessary to reading and interpreting VIX values, trends, and mean reversion. CBOE's FAQ on VIX, linked above, contains the following helpful and detailed information about how the VIX Index is calculated: "Cboe Options Exchange® (Cboe Options®) calculates the VIX Index using standard SPX options and weekly SPX options that are listed for trading on Cboe Options. Standard SPX options expire on the third Friday of each month and weekly SPX options expire on all other Fridays. Only SPX options with Friday expirations are used to calculate the VIX Index.* Only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant maturity 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index. Cboe Options lists SPX options that expire on days other than Fridays. Non-Friday SPX expirations are not used to calculate the VIX Index. Intraday VIX Index values are based on snapshots of SPX option bid/ask quotes every 15 seconds and are intended to provide an indication of the fair market price of expected volatility at particular points in time. As such, these VIX Index values are often referred to as "indicative" or "spot" values. Cboe Options currently calculates VIX Index spot values between 3:15 a.m. ET and 9:15 a.m. ET (Cboe GTH session), and between 9:30 a.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET (Cboe RTH session) according to the VIX Index formula that is set forth in the White Paper." FN 2 The source for some of the key concepts in this section was a January 2018 article on CBOE's website blog on the VIX / Trader Talk, and the article referenced was "Vol 411 Follow Up: More on the VIX3M / VIX Ratio." This article appears to no longer be available. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. Thank you for reading. If this post added clarity or prompted additional thoughts on the technicals of SPY, please comment below!
SP:SPXEducation
by SquishTrade
47
How to Use Fibonacci ExtensionsHave you ever noticed that market movements often seem to occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal. A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios Fibonacci ratios are derived from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. The sequence begins with 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, and so on. The primary Fibonacci ratio of 1.618, sometimes called the Golden Ratio, is found by dividing one number by the previous. 34 divided by 21, for example, roughly equals 1.619. As the sequence progresses, the ratio becomes more precise and closer to 1.618. Dividing a number by the next, such as if we divide 13 by 21, will give us a ratio of 0.618 (0.619 in the case of 13/21), also commonly used in Fibonacci retracements. Further calculations produce the Fibonacci extension levels we’re interested in: 1, 1.382, 2, 2.618, and 4.236. In trading, they’re typically expressed as percentages, like 100%, 138.2%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. What are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they should be considered as areas of interest rather than where price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries. Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis can be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets. Fibonacci Retracements vs Extensions Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. Fibonacci retracements show support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. On the other hand, Fibonacci extensions measure the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred. As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse. It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build an effective strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, then take profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits. Fib Extensions: How to Use If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow. 1. Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness. Using the Magnet mode on TickTrader may help you set it with precision. 2. Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction. 3. Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected. That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours. Bullish Example In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound. Bearish Example Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade since it never fully hit the level. However, the easiest way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the first dotted line. Once price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal. Some traders subscribe to the belief that if price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher. Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two tips to maximise your chances of success. 1. Look for confirmation: Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that price is starting to reverse at the area before taking profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above. 2. Find confluence: Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level. Your Next Steps Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could’ve gotten involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, you can open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns ? *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents FXOpen Companies’ opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to FXOpen Companies’ products and services or as financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
7
Turtle Power: Experiment Turns Novices into MillionairesHi and welcome back! As a trader, you have probably at one time heard about the Turtle Traders, right? But what was it, and what can we learn from it? Let me take you on a journey into the fascinating world of the Turtle trading strategy! 🐢💰 This legendary trading experiment, conceived by two master traders, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, in the 1980s, showcases the power of a well-designed system and the right mindset. Dennis believed anyone could be trained to trade successfully, while Eckhardt argued that trading skills were innate. To settle the debate, they devised the Turtle trading experiment. They selected a diverse group of 23 individuals, known as the "Turtles," and taught them a trend-following trading system focused on trading commodities and currencies. The core principles of this system were: Follow the trend : The Turtles used Donchian Channels, tracking 20-day and 55-day price channels, to identify breakouts and breakdowns. When the market price broke above the 20-day high, it was a buy signal. When it broke below the 20-day low, it was a sell signal. Cut losses short : The Turtles followed a 2% rule, never risking more than 2% of their account on any single trade. They calculated position sizes using the N value, the 20-day average true range (ATR), dividing the 2% risk amount by the N value. Position sizing and pyramiding : The Turtles adjusted their position sizes based on market volatility and employed pyramiding, adding more contracts at specific increments up to a maximum limit as the market trended in their favor. Stop Losses : They used a stop-loss order equal to 2N for every trade, exiting the trade to minimize losses if the market moved against their position by twice the N value. Diversification : The Turtles traded a diversified portfolio of markets, spreading risk and enhancing returns. Scaling Out : They used a two-tiered exit strategy, exiting a portion of their position when the market retraced by 10-day low/high and the remaining position when the market retraced by 20-day low/high. With these principles, the Turtles were handed real money to trade. Over the next four years, they collectively made more than $100 million , proving that trading success could be taught. The Turtle trading experiment demonstrated the power of a disciplined, trend-following system combined with the right mindset. In conclusion, the Turtle trading strategy is an extraordinary tale of how a simple, yet effective, trading system can lead to remarkable results when executed with discipline and consistency . As you venture into the world of trading, remember that the strategy in itself is not as important as the lessons of the Turtles: stay disciplined, follow the trend, and manage your risk . You might just be the next trading success story! 🌊📈 Want to become a Turtle? 💡 Curious about the Turtle trading strategy? Dive into TradingView's Public Indicator library, where you'll find a collection of Turtle-related scripts crafted by the Pine Script™ community. Just open a chart, click "Indicators," and search "Turtle" to access a variety of indicators that'll give you a feel for this legendary system. Happy exploring! 💡 The Original Turtle Rules (PDF): This free eBook, written by Curtis M. Faith, one of the original Turtles, contains the original Turtle trading rules and guidelines. Link: www.trendfollowing.com 🚀 Like and follow if you appreciated this article. 📖 More useful publications can be found under "Related Ideas" below ⬇️⬇️⬇️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Profit_Through_Patience
87
The Power of Compound InterestIntroduction Compound interest, often referred to as the eighth wonder of the world, is a financial concept that has the power to transform small investments into large fortunes over time. It is the key to building wealth, securing financial independence, and ensuring a comfortable retirement. In this essay, we will explore the underlying principles of compound interest, its benefits, and real-life examples. Additionally, we will discuss strategies for maximizing the potential of compound interest and managing its impact on debt. The Basics of Compound Interest At its core, compound interest is the interest earned on an initial sum of money (principal) as well as on any interest that has previously been added to the principal. In other words, it is interest on interest. The key factors that determine how much your investment will grow are the principal amount, the interest rate, and the time period. Compound interest allows money to grow exponentially, which means that the longer the investment period, the more significant the growth. Real-Life Examples of Compound Interest Let us consider a simple example to illustrate the power of compound interest. Suppose you invest $1.000 at an annual interest rate of 5%. After the first year, you will have earned 50 USD in interest ($1.000 * 0.05), resulting in a new balance of $1.050. With simple interest, the earnings would stop here, but with compound interest, the process continues. In the second year, you will earn 5% interest on the full $1.050, which means you will earn $52.50 in interest, for a new balance of $1.102,50. This cycle repeats itself, with the balance and interest growing each year. Over the course of 30 years, a $1.000 investment at 5% annual interest compounded annually would grow to $4.321,94. The exponential growth over time demonstrates the incredible power of compound interest. The frequency of compounding can also significantly impact the growth of an investment. Many investments compound interest daily, monthly, or quarterly. The more frequent the compounding period, the faster the investment will grow. For example, a $1.000 investment at 5% annual interest compounded quarterly over 30 years would grow to $4.486,98, demonstrating the benefits of more frequent compounding. Maximizing Compound Interest Potential There are several strategies for maximizing the potential of compound interest. Firstly, start investing as early as possible, as the exponential growth of compound interest accelerates over time. Even small, regular investments can lead to substantial gains over time. For instance, investing $100 per month at a 7% annual interest rate compounded monthly from age 25 to 65 would result in a balance of $262.481, even though the total contributions would only amount to $48.000. Next, invest consistently and seek out investments with higher interest rates, which can significantly boost the growth of your investments. Finally, opt for more frequent compounding periods to accelerate your investment growth. By adhering to these strategies, you can make the most of compound interest and build substantial wealth over time. Compound Interest and Debt Management While compound interest can work wonders for wealth-building, it can also have negative consequences when it comes to debt. Credit cards, loans, and other forms of debt often compound interest, causing debt to grow rapidly if not managed properly. It is crucial to stay vigilant and make regular payments to prevent the negative effects of compound interest on debt. Conclusion In conclusion, compound interest is a powerful financial concept that can significantly impact your financial future. By understanding its principles, harnessing its benefits, and applying effective strategies, you can maximize your financial potential and secure a prosperous future. The key to success with compound interest lies in starting early, investing consistently, and being patient. Remember that small, consistent actions today can lead to enormous results in the future. It is crucial to research available investment options, assess your risk tolerance, and choose financial vehicles that align with your goals. By making informed decisions and leveraging the power of compound interest, you can make your money work for you and achieve financial success. As a final note, it is essential to consider the impact of compound interest on debt management. Proper planning and disciplined payment schedules can help you mitigate the negative effects of compound interest on your financial well-being. By staying diligent and actively managing your finances, you can ensure a healthy balance between your investments and debts, paving the way for a bright and secure financial future. Whether you are a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, understanding the incredible potential of compound interest is invaluable. Embrace this financial marvel and harness its power to achieve your financial goals and secure a prosperous future for yourself and your loved ones.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by financialflagship
16
The Philosophy of Selling Technical IndicatorsWith a rather odd & convoluted history, the industry of selling access to technical indicators goes back further in time than most traders & investors are aware of. A rather large majority of investors perceive the act of selling access to technical indicators as being in most relation to selling 'snake-oil'. While this is true for many vendors who unfortunately market indicators as a 'get rich quick' scheme for trading, it's not true for every vendor. In this article we are going to do a deep dive exposing what makes a bad vendor, going through the history of indicator vendors, and outlining how vendors can actually have an overall positive impact for the community. Disclaimer: LuxAlgo is a provider of technical indicators (mostly free, but some paid), however, we will try to be as un-biased as possible in this piece. This article is purely for informational & educational purposes for the greater community. 🔶 WHAT MAKES A GOOD VENDOR? We could summarize this as a vendor who first & foremost follows TradingView vendor requirements , develops quality products, cares about the community, truly acknowledges that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and has good business practices. A step by step ruleset to follow of how to be a good vendor could be as follows: 🔹 1. Publish open-source scripts Aside from the paid scripts, vendors should be easily able to contribute other publications with open-source code for the greater community. Come on, let the world see that code! There shouldn't be any hesitation to contribute open-source scripts if a vendor is deeming themselves good enough to sell private indicators, right? Well, there's not many other ways to immediately tell if their products are "quality" if a vendor has no open-source publications to show for themselves as a developer. If someone is going to sell indicators, we believe in our opinion that they should be able to contribute to the community with open-source work as well in a notable way. This can also be a vendor's way of "giving back" or at least just a way to show they care about the community. Many vendors completely disregard publishing open source as a means to building a community & also being contributive to the great platform with a userbase they're building a business on top of, while in fact, it does all of this in an extremely productive way. A possible reason why many vendors do not prioritize publishing open-source scripts could be that they don't know how to do so in any case, so they stick to private script publications mostly (or entirely) to avoid having to be in the public eye of the broader TradingView / Pine Script community. 🔹 2. Don't use misleading marketing practices Indicators can be marketed as quality, efficient, comprehensive, educational, and supportive tools for traders / investors. There is a balance a vendor must have when it comes to marketing a technical indicator as a product. To be clear, of course, it is only logical & common sense to display a product as 'good', and there's nothing wrong with that. However, if a vendor goes too far, such as saying, "Our indicator has an 89% win rate!" or "How to turn $1k into $100k!" or even "Revealing the game-changing secret weapon that made trader $1M on 1 trade!" - then a vendor is simply using bad practices to acquire customers. A great analogy can be an advertisement for a food company such as Pizza Hut. Of course, they want to make the pizza look great with excellent visuals, good lighting, & shiny cheese, however, they don't tell you by eating the pizza it will get you a 6-pack rock hard abs. The same can be applied to marketing technical indicators as products. Of course, a vendor can display their product functioning well in good market conditions primarily, however, by claiming it has any sort of "win-rate" or guaranteed profits, a vendor is being misleading. The only difference between the Pizza Hut ad & the technical indicator ad being it pertains to the analysis of financial markets, so, in general there should also be proper disclaimers where fit to address consumer expectations using such products. 🔹 3. Don't be misleading in your branding, either. This goes hand-in-hand with the point made above on marketing. If a brand itself is in relation to generating profits like "Profit-Bot" or a product / feature is called "10x-Gains-Moving-Average"... the vendor is likely en-route to problems in the long run with the business (bad reviews, business disputes, poor community, etc). A great business is made on transparency, providing value, caring about customers, and making a difference within an industry for the better. The more a business does good by customers, the healthier the business will be, & the longer the business will last. Within the space of technical indicators as products, no matter how transparent the marketing / website is, many customers will still have the impression that they will use these products to help themselves 'make profits'. While this is of course mostly everyone's goal being involved in financial markets in the first place, it calls for a good balance in the presentation of the indicators as well as setting expectations clear by communicating realistic expectations to customers as best as possible. One thing vendors can easily do to be transparent, honest, & an overall good actor in the industry is to provide a generous refund policy to ensure consumers who may still have the wrong idea about the intended usage have the opportuntiy to move on with a full refund. Executing on a good refund policy tends to be the most successful strategy for vendors opposed to free trials even for managing expectations because free trials can attract even less experienced traders who don't want to take the time to learn the product itself no matter how many times they have directed to not follow indicators blindly. There are many instances of where this is seen as similarly true within digital products in general such as plug-ins, educational programs, etc. 🔹 4. Create unique products This should be a given, however, it's something we thought we should mention as many vendors tend to impersonate or completely mimic other products already existing in hopes of theirs attaining the same level of attention. The reality is most technical indicators as products have already seen a high level of adoption from the broader community and it universally is known to them that there are knockoff products existing already. Joining forces with the knockoffs is not a good bet in any endeavor and we believe that originality can go a long way in this industry as well. 🔶 WHAT MAKES A BAD VENDOR? Well, this can be easily summed up in 1 image of course. You know what they say, if something sounds too good to be true... it isn't. If someone is standing in front of an exotic car, flashing cash, and telling you they got this rad lifestyle by using their trading indicator... it should immediately raise 1,000 red flags for you. There's no such thing as getting rich quick, especially based on the functionality of a technical indicator. Period. This type of malicious marketing is extremely harmful to people as it directly gives them false hopes, plays into desperation, and is from a common-sense perspective; a deceptive marketing tactic used by charlatans. Bad vendors do not publish any open-source contributions and primarily just stick to marketing indicators in misleading ways that overall harm the community. There are many potential reasons as to why vendors market indicators in misleading ways: 1.) They don't understand indicators & they are actually snake-oil salesmen (image above). 2.) They do understand indicators, maybe have something decent developed, but just don't know how else to market indicators other than promising profits. 3.) They may have tried marketing in non-misleading ways before, found that misleading marketing is producing the most sales for them, so they became fueled with greed & doubled-down on the misleading claims when marketing their product regardless. (Instead of trying to build a reputable business). 🔶 WHY & HOW VENDORS CAN BE GOOD FOR THE COMMUNITY Vendors have the power to reach more people, since at the end of the day, there is a business established behind them with marketing efforts. We believe that people will buy indicators no matter what and that this is a real established market as products for traders, regardless of what the majority of investors think of it. So, as long as there are good actors primarily at the top of the industry, this is what's best for the community overall, and possibly the overall perception of indicator vendors can change eventually. Good acting vendors with the right practices as listed earlier in this article are able to educate more people through marketing their products, community growth, & open-source contributions that they publish as well. All in turn, growing the broader interest in the scripting community which helps grow technical analysis further by having a larger number of users provide feedback to each other & further improve the space over time. In the case of LuxAlgo as a provider for example, it would not have been possible to grow a TradingView following of 200,000+ without the marketing efforts outside of TradingView on platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and even TikTok for all indicators we have created (free & paid). Which has certainly grown into a large community, which over time has meaningfully contributed to the interest in custom technical indicators & the scripting community overall in general. In the case of a bad acting vendor, this is the exact opposite & bad for the community overall because they do not make any good contribution to the community and just merely exist to try & sell access to their private indicators. 🔶 DO PAID INDICATORS "WORK" BETTER THAN FREE INDICATORS? If you are defining the word "work" as "make more profits", then the answer is a hard no in all cases. If you are defining the word "work" as in "being more useful", then it truly just depends on how comprehensive or unique the indicator is. We believe that indicators are best used as supportive tools for decision making, so it's important to be asking this question in the right context & with this understanding when considering a product. In the context of LuxAlgo Premium indicators specifically, we believe the answer is yes due to how the indicators were designed as all-in-one toolkits that include presets, filters, & various customization/optimization methods specifically designed to help traders embrace their trading style. The position for paid indicators to exist under a subscription model is primarily done since indicators can be frequently updated / improved over time based on the user's feedback. There are, however, other aspects of paid indicators which could be legitimately more useful than anything you can find for free in some other cases such as unique volume-based tools, extensive market scanner scripts, etc. Although, it is quite limited when it comes to traditional technical indicators such as moving averages or signal-based indicators to make a strong argument that one is better than another in any meaningful way. In most cases, you can take one indicator and overfit it to appear "better" or "more accurate" than another indicator by finding more specific market conditions or settings that has an advantage over another. As a technical analyst, you begin to understand this once you have experimented with vast amounts of technical indicators with different use cases and have thoroughly reflected on its actual benefits to you. It's truly impossible to make an alternative argument in all cases, including debatably all paid technical indicators in existence right now. 🔶 THE REAL VALUE PROPOSITION OF PAID TECHNICAL INDICATORS Since we can conclude in mostly all scenarios that paid indicators don't "work" better than free indicators in a technical sense when referring to its accuracy or direct visual aid to a trader, it begs to question what the actual value proposition can be for a vendor selling access to indicators. A large part of the alternative value prop for a vendor may fall under the community & education that it provides under the brand, or additionally, the prospect of a vendor making paid indicators more interoperable with other applications such as large-scale alerts systems or cross-platform functionality. Many vendors may try to create value propositions for their paid indicators by hosting a signal group where analysts callout trades using their paid indicators, however, this typically will be done in misleading ways over-hyping the usage and is not generally a good practice for vendors or users in our opinion. With all of this mentioned, it may seem that the entire industry is full of charlatans at times, however, we do not believe the space will remain like this forever. 🔶 SHOULD THIS BE A MORE LEGITIMIZED INDUSTRY? The history of paid indicators goes all the way back to the 1980's with John Ehlhers & Mark Jurik being two notable figures providing paid tools through websites on various charting platforms. There was also a rather strange ecosystem of products with generally 'awkward' branding existing on older charting platforms since the early 2,000's. Some of which on these platforms still exist to this day. While interestingly enough, practically none of these brands ever grew past being considered small plug-ins. Some considerably large educational programs / memberships throughout the 2,000's (& some existing still to this day) have implemented indicators as a part of their offerings, although they typically tend to integrate indicators only to add on to their sales funnel styled websites in hopes to add unique value to their "life changing online course" positioning, so we won't mention any names. Additionally, while most new traders are likely unaware, TradingView had an app-store marketplace themselves in the 2010's called "marketplace add-ons" where users could purchase indicators from various vendors within their indicators tab alongside the Public Library now called Community Scripts. Likely as the TradingView platform & Pine Script was mass-adopted on a larger scale, this marketplace was discontinued for various reasons with the adoption of invite-only scripts, where anyone with a premium account can manage access on these types of script publications. This pivotal shift leveled the playing field for the industry whereas it created a new ecosystem of vendors who all could leverage their ability to manage access to users without appearing as "just another marketplace add-on", but rather, actual brands themselves. While keeping this piece as un-biased as possible, this is where LuxAlgo was born, & generally speaking, was primarily the inspiration for the hundreds of "Algo" brands popping up all over the internet trying to sell TradingView indicators due to our notoriety in this environment. In this current landscape, we believe there is an established ecosystem that has potential to mature further into a 'healthy' industry, so to speak... as mentioned earlier, just as long as there are more good actors leading it than bad. We are also hopeful for platforms to recognize this evolution themselves & directly support the ecosystem to grow more efficiently with stronger operations over time while still allowing these brands their own independence as they have now. It's very optimistic considering the realization of how popular the ecosystem has become & with the prospect of vendors within it to lead it in positive ways, which overall brings more people to TradingView & grows genuine interest in the Pine Script community from all over the internet very effectively. 🔶 CONCLUSION We strongly believe indicator vendors will always exist in some capacity considering the 30–40-year history, the rise of digital products on the internet, as well as the growing popularity of indicator vendors in this current landscape. Considering this, it's important to ensure the brands leading the space are good actors so the space itself can mature long-term. As a prominent figure in this industry, we hope from this article to have provided a lot of transparency for the broader community of traders & investors who may not have been aware of this space in such detail, as well as for any aspiring vendors to hopefully look to us and what we have outlined as a good role model / checklist for the sake of making this industry more legitimized in the future. Thank you for reading! - Sean Mack (Founder @LuxAlgo) Credits Alex Pierrefeu (TV profile @alexgrover) for being a massive leader in LuxAlgo since the beginning & going deep all the time creating theories w/ me about technical analysis & the industry with genuine fascination. John Ehlers for being what we call the grandfather of this entire industry dating back to the 1980's with MESA Software. Mark Jurik as a serious 'wave maker' with Jurik Research and for leading the way in the early 2,000's as a provider of unique tools. @ChrisMoody for being a real "OG" in the TradingView community & for some cool discussions about the history of the industry early on. All of the amazing users of LuxAlgo Premium since early 2020 and the entire community who provide us feedback to improve our indicators over time. Everyone in the Pine Script community who follows us on TradingView & enjoys our contributions. The @PineCoders team for being extremely helpful moderating the platform & for listening to our feedback / dealing with us throughout the years. And lastly @TradingView for being the greatest platform for traders / investors and for making all of this possible in the first place.
SP:SPXEducation
by LuxAlgo
97
Reasons and Effects of RecessionHi everyone, Today, I am here with informative content. Let me start by saying that it will be a bit long, but let's learn what "Recession" means in detail. 🚩Recession can be defined as an economic downturn period. It is generally characterized by a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) of a country in one or more quarters. Recession is associated with a series of economic indicators, such as rising unemployment rates, a decrease in consumer spending, and a general slowdown in economic activity. 🚩Recessions usually occur as part of the economic cycle and move with periods of economic growth. Some recessions may be shorter and less severe, while others may be longer and more severe. Recessions are generally attempted to be alleviated through economic incentives such as monetary policy, tax cuts, or increases in government spending. 🚩During a period when the economy slows down in general, financial markets are also affected. Recessions affect the prices of assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. Below are some examples of how recessions affect money markets: 🏳️Stocks: Stock prices usually decline during recession periods. Since the profitability of businesses decreases, investors tend to sell stocks as they expect a decrease in the company's future earnings potential. Therefore, during recession periods, there are often declines in stock markets. 🏳️Bonds: During recession periods, bonds usually have more demand. This may be due to investors turning to a safer investment. Bond interest rates may decline, and some investors may turn to safer but lower-yielding bonds from higher-risk assets. 🏳️Gold and other commodities: Gold and other commodities usually have demand during recession periods. This may be due to investors looking for a safer haven. Gold is a widely used "safe haven" asset worldwide, and its price usually rises during recession periods. 🏳️Currencies: Exchange rates between currencies can also change during recession periods. For example, currencies of countries with slowing economies usually decline, while currencies of countries with stronger economies usually become more valuable. 🚩The 2008 global financial crisis was triggered by a collapse that began in the US mortgage market. This collapse started when mortgage lenders turned high-risk mortgage loans into high-risk debts by commercializing them. Mortgage debts were then packaged with various debt instruments and sold in financial markets by investment banks. The collapse of debt instruments resulted in unpaid mortgage debts, a decline in house prices, and more homeowners facing financial difficulties. This situation turned into a mortgage crisis that began in 2007 and lasted until the middle of 2008. 🚩FED made several statements in the early 2008 indicating that there was a "mild recession" in the US economy. However, the FED failed to take necessary precautions for the collapse of the mortgage market to turn into a crisis. One reason why FED could not take necessary precautions for the collapse of the mortgage market to turn into a crisis was due to the loose regulations of financial institutions in the US and permission to finance risky debts with high leverage. Therefore, the statements made by FED in early 2008 could have been made to maintain market confidence. 🚩However, towards the end of 2008, the mortgage crisis deepened and turned into a global financial crisis, which resulted in many financial institutions going bankrupt, unemployment rates rising, and a significant decline in the world economy. As a result, the statements made by FED in 2008 were based on the assumption that the mortgage crisis would result in a less severe recession. However, this assumption did not come true, and the mortgage crisis turned into a global financial crisis. These events have shown that regulatory institutions need to closely monitor risks in financial markets and complexity in debt instruments. Similarities and Differences: 🚩We can say the following about the similarities and differences between the 2008 global financial crisis and a potential crisis: Similarities: • Both the 2008 crisis and a potential crisis could begin with a collapse in financial markets. • Both crises can affect many economic sectors and countries. • Crises usually cause a decline in economic activity and a rise in unemployment rates. • Both crises may require central banks to intervene through monetary policies by lowering interest rates. Differences: • The 2008 crisis began with the collapse of high-risk loans in the mortgage market. The start of a potential crisis may depend on a different cause or event. • The 2008 crisis resulted in the bankruptcy of many financial institutions. In a potential crisis, the situation of financial institutions or the structure of financial instruments may be different. • The 2008 crisis turned into a global financial crisis. The magnitude of a potential crisis will depend on how widespread the crisis is, which sectors are affected, and whether the crisis has a global impact. • In a potential crisis, countries' economic structures and policies before the crisis may have a different impact on the severity and duration of the crisis. 🚩In conclusion, any economic crisis cannot be predicted in advance, and we cannot know its definite results beforehand. However, by looking at the causes and consequences of past crises, we can say that uncertainty and fluctuations in financial markets and economic activity are significant during crisis periods. Possible Impact on Cryptocurrencies: 🚩Predicting the impact of a potential recession on cryptocurrency assets and Bitcoin is a difficult issue. However, in case of uncertainty in financial markets and investors avoiding risky assets, it is possible for cryptocurrencies to lose value. On the other hand, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may act as a safe haven asset, especially in times of economic turmoil, and may increase in value. Differences Between Technical Recession and Real Recession 🚩Technical recession is a situation where the economy has a declining growth rate for a certain period (usually a quarter or more). In this case, a country's economy shows a decline for two consecutive quarters. Technical recession is generally considered an indicator of an economic downturn period. 🚩Real recession, on the other hand, is an economic downturn period where economic indicators such as rising unemployment rates and decreasing consumer spending sharply decrease. One of the most important determinants of a real recession is the unemployment rate in an economy. When unemployment rates rise in an economy, the purchasing power of the unemployed people decreases, and as a result, consumer spending declines. 🚩The difference between the two terms is that technical recession only refers to a two-quarter economic downturn period, while real recession refers to more extended, usually more severe, and more serious economic problems such as an increase in unemployment. Let's Take a Look at the 2001 and 2008 Crises 🚩In the past, the US economy entered a technical recession several times, but also experienced real recessions. For example, in 2001, the US economy shrank for two quarters, and technically, a recession occurred. However, the main reason for this economic downturn was the burst of the high-tech bubble. Therefore, the contraction in the economy was only caused by a temporary factor, and there was no significant change in other economic indicators. 🚩However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the US economy went through a more severe recession. This crisis was caused by subprime mortgages and other risky financial instruments. The crisis led to significant losses in financial markets and the bankruptcy of major banks. As a result, economic growth slowed down, unemployment rates increased, and consumer spending declined. This situation was evaluated as a real recession, and the US economy struggled to recover for a long time. 🚩The Fed has taken various steps to address technical and real recessions in the US economy by regulating interest rates and using monetary policy tools. For example, after the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed reduced interest rates to zero and tried to support financial markets using monetary policy tools. These steps helped the economy to recover, and the US economy started to grow again. If you've read this far, you probably liked this content. Don't forget to use the like button, and if you feel like it, you can even leave a comment. Moreover, sharing knowledge is powerful, so you can share this content with your friends who you want to strengthen. Goodbye. 👋🏻👋🏻👋🏻
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by burakkesmeci
6
Support and Resistance Explained WHAT IS SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE Trading support and resistance is like playing a game of tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the market. Imagine a group of people trying to pull a rope from opposite sides. If one side is stronger, they will pull the rope in their direction. In trading, the buyers and sellers are like these people pulling on the rope. Support is like the floor of a room. It's the level at which the buyers come in and start buying a stock, because they believe that the price won't go lower than that level. So, if the stock price drops to the support level, it's like the buyers have put a floor on the price and won't let it go lower. Resistance is like the ceiling of a room. It's the level at which the sellers start selling a stock, because they believe that the price won't go higher than that level. So, if the stock price goes up to the resistance level, it's like the sellers have put a ceiling on the price and won't let it go higher. Traders use support and resistance levels to make decisions about when to buy or sell a asset. If the price is approaching a support level, a trader might decide to buy the asset, because they believe that the buyers will come in and push the price back up. On the other hand, if the stock price is approaching a resistance level, a trader might decide to sell the stock, because they believe that the sellers will push the price back down. Remember, support and resistance levels are not always exact, and the asset price can break through them if there is enough buying or selling pressure. But they can still be useful tools for traders to make informed decisions. Identifying Support and Resistance 🔷Look for areas where the price has previously turned around: This is one of the most common methods to identify support and resistance levels. You can look at a price chart and identify areas where the price has bounced back from in the past. These areas can become support or resistance levels in the future, depending on the direction of the price movement. 🔷Use trend lines: Trend lines are lines drawn on a price chart that connect the highs or lows of the price movement. A trend line connecting the higher highs can be a resistance line, while a trend line connecting the lower lows can be a support line. 🔷Pivot points: Pivot points are calculated using the previous day's high, low, and close prices. These levels can act as potential support and resistance levels for the current day's trading. You can find pivot point using Tradingview built in "More Technicals tools" 🔷Moving averages: Moving averages are used to smooth out the price action and identify the overall trend. They can also act as support or resistance levels, depending on where the price is in relation to the moving average. 🔷Fibonacci retracements: This method uses Fibonacci ratios to identify potential support and resistance levels. The levels are calculated by dividing the vertical distance between two significant price points by the key Fibonacci ratios (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%). It's important to note that support and resistance levels are not exact and can sometimes be broken. So, it's essential to use other indicators and confirm the levels before making any trading decisions. Here are some other key facts about support and resistance that you may find useful: 🔸Support and resistance levels can switch roles: When a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level, and vice versa. For example, if a stock price breaks through a resistance level, that level can become a support level for future price movements. 🔸Multiple support and resistance levels can exist: A price chart can have multiple support and resistance levels at the same time, depending on the time frame and the volatility of the market. Traders can use different levels to make informed decisions about buying or selling a stock. 🔸Volume can confirm support and resistance levels: High trading volume at a support or resistance level can confirm its validity. For example, if a stock price bounces off a support level with high trading volume, it's a sign that there is buying pressure at that level. 🔸Support and resistance levels are not exact: As I mentioned earlier, support and resistance levels are not exact and can be broken. Traders should use other indicators, such as trend lines, moving averages, and candlestick patterns, to confirm the levels before making any trading decisions. 🔸Support and resistance levels can be influenced by external factors: Economic events, news releases, and market sentiment can also influence support and resistance levels. For example, a positive earnings report can break through a resistance level, while negative news can break through a support level. Traders should keep an eye on these external factors to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
24
Important to Understand About Leverage and Your Own EquityHi Everyone! This is simply a brief summary of WHY it's important to understand how to use leverage. We should always start (begin) with how much of our own equity we should allow to be at risk of liquidation. I personally allow myself to use up to 3 percent of my TOTAL equity in a position; while also allowing the price action to move up to 15 percent against my SWING position. This tutorial is referring to SWING trading and NOT scalping. I'm not going to take the time to write down everything here in the description. The content in the video should be sufficient to help one understand how to determine your position size. Your position size must rely on the following: How much of my TOTAL equity should I risk in a leverage position? What percent will I allow price action to move AGAINST my position before liquidating my position? Knowing those two (2) things (above) helps you determine the proper size of your position and how much leverage you should use in that position to avoid losing more than I intended. IMPORTANT: MAKE SURE YOU ARE USING ISOLATED LEVERAGE RATHER THAN CROSS LEVERAGE. Why? To avoid losing more of your total equity. Especially, if you did not setup a stop loss. It's best to simply use "isolated" leverage where at all possible. Remember... This is NOT a detailed tutorial on margin (leverage) trading. The main purpose of this tutorial was simply to point out how to manage the amount of your TOTAL equity you are willing to risk in any given trade... Why? Because doing this also helps you determine what should be the proper size of your position. However, you cannot know the proper size of that position if you do not also factor in how much of a move you will allow AGAINST your position before being liquidated. I'm not sure if this is confusing or not. It may be quite confusing to many and not so confusing to others. This is why it's best for you to watch the video. Thank you for your valuable time! Happy Trading and Stay Aweosme! David
FEducation
by WyckoffMode
11
Investing in CryptoThere are approximately 22,932 cryptocurrencies in existence. The image above shows the hundreds of cryptocurrencies on TradingView's crypto coins heat map. Click here to interact with the heat map With so many cryptocurrencies, how does one determine which, if any, are worth investing in? In this post, I'll explain how I sorted through thousands of cryptocurrencies to identify a small handful that met my investing criteria. This is post is meant to be educational, but is not meant to be financial advice. I began by using TradingView's crypto screener , shown below. I filtered out cryptocurrencies with a market cap of less than $100 million. In my opinion, cryptocurrencies with a market cap smaller than $100 million are too volatile and illiquid to safely invest or trade. Assets with a such small market cap can also be prone to price manipulation. The low volume and illiquid conditions also tend to result in poor-quality charting data. I analyzed the charts of over 200 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of over $100 million. To account for the possibility that a cryptocurrency under the $100 million market cap was growing fast enough to eventually become a candidate, I re-screened all the cryptocurrencies by market cap at a second point in time (6 months later). I also performed both screenings during the current crypto bear market when fewer new cryptocurrencies were coming into existence. I observed that most cryptocurrencies decayed in value relative to the U.S. dollar. When an asset decays in value relative to the U.S. dollar this generally means that the market believes the asset is becoming worthless. Since the majority of the most highly capitalized cryptocurrencies were decaying in price over time, I assumed that lesser capitalized cryptocurrencies were also decaying in price relative to the U.S. dollar. Therefore, I concluded that most cryptocurrencies are becoming worthless over time. To objectively determine whether or not an asset is decaying relative to the U.S. dollar one can apply a regression channel to the entire price history of the asset. If the channel is downsloping, then the asset is decaying in value as time passes. The chart above shows an example of a cryptocurrency that has decayed in value relative to the U.S. dollar. Most cryptocurrencies decay in value relative to the U.S. dollar. (Note: Although the denominator is Tether the chart has been adjusted to USD.) Although most cryptocurrencies decay in value over time, dozens of cryptocurrencies move up in value relative to the U.S. dollar over time (and have an upsloping regression channel). For these high-performing cryptocurrencies, I then used relative strength analysis to determine the best investing candidates. For each cryptocurrency that had a market cap of over $100 million and that had an upsloping regression channel relative to the U.S. dollar over its entire existence, I analyzed the cryptocurrency relative to Bitcoin to see if it outperformed. If the cryptocurrency decayed over time relative to Bitcoin (downsloping regression channel), I removed it from my list because I concluded that it would be better to just invest in Bitcoin. Although I excluded crypto that underperformed Bitcoin, I could not reach the conclusion that crypto that outperformed Bitcoin was worth investing in until I first validated the conclusion that Bitcoin itself was worth investing in. While a quick glance at the price history of Bitcoin, as shown below, may convince many people that Bitcoin is worth investing in, I needed an objective, evidence-based, and mathematical method to determine whether Bitcoin is a wealth-building asset or merely a speculative bubble. Fortunately, chart analysis can help us infer if an asset is a speculative bubble or actually wealth-building over the long term. In a prior post, I explained that from a conceptual standpoint, a wealth-building asset is one that expands the investor's purchasing power over time. In order to do this, a wealth-building asset generally must move up in price over time faster than the rate at which the money supply expands. In general, only assets that are perpetually scarce or that are increasingly productive can overcome this difficult hurdle to be classified as a wealth-building asset. To learn more about why an asset must outperform the growth rate of the money supply in order to be wealth-building, you can check out my post below. Therefore, in order to test whether or not Bitcoin is a wealth-building asset over the long term (years and decades), I compared Bitcoin against the money supply. What I found was surprising. The above chart compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the U.S. money supply (M1). I found that the market cap of Bitcoin was forming an apparent bull flag to the U.S. money supply (M1) on the yearly chart. Not only is a bull flag apparently forming, but the bull flag structure is apparently a perfect golden ratio. To learn more about golden ratio bull flag structures and why they can be quite significant, you can check out my post below about advanced bull flag concepts. I decided to delve deeper. This time I measured Bitcoin against the money supply on a lower timeframe and using a longer lookback period. I found that the total market cap of Bitcoin as a ratio to the money supply was moving in an apparent logistic growth curve . Although it is generally well-known that Bitcoin moves in a logistic growth curve to the U.S. dollar, it is not generally well-known that Bitcoin's market cap is also moving in the same logistic growth pattern relative to the money supply. The chart above shows the total market cap of Bitcoin moving in an apparent logistic growth curve relative to the money supply. The pink line at the top is the value 1, and it represents a horizontal asymptote (the highest possible value that can be reached). Bitcoin's market cap can only go as high as the total supply of money. As Bitcoin's market cap approaches the total supply of money, further growth becomes increasingly inhibited because there is a decreasing amount of money left that can be converted into Bitcoin so as to push its price up further. It is thus not possible for the total market cap of Bitcoin to exceed the total supply of money. In other words, when measured in U.S. dollars, the total value of 21 million Bitcoin can only ever be as high as the total global supply of U.S. dollars. Although the money supply tends to increase over time, the total market cap of Bitcoin as a ratio to the money supply can only ever reach 1. Since the inhibiting factor of the growth of Bitcoin's market cap is the money supply then what this means on a conceptual level is that Bitcoin's logistic growth is actually a mathematical indication that Bitcoin is replacing the money supply. In essence, by forming a logistic growth curve to the U.S. money supply, we can infer that Bitcoin is displacing, if not outright replacing, the U.S. dollar. If you would like more scientific evidence that Bitcoin conforms to a logistic growth function, you can check out this research article . It is not unusual that Bitcoin's price action appears as a logistic growth curve. Logistic growth curves characterize many types of replacement processes in nature. For example, each time a new variant of COVID-19 emerged, it replaced the previous variant through logistic growth, which can be shown in a chart of the relative prevalence of COVID-19 variants over time. The chart above shows the "S-curve" or sigmoid pattern that characterizes logistic growth. Variants of COVID-19 vying for hosts to infect is reflected as a logistic growth race among circulating and emerging variants. In many ways, this competition among virus variants is analogous to the competition of cryptocurrencies: Each cryptocurrency competes with existing and emerging cryptocurrencies to form a logistic growth curve relative to the U.S. dollar, thereby challenging its market dominance. A small subset of cryptocurrencies are so competitive that they also form a logistic growth curve relative to Bitcoin, which reflects their attempt to replace even Bitcoin's market dominance. The final step I took in analyzing cryptocurrency for investing potential was to detect which, if any, cryptocurrencies were moving in logistic growth not only to the U.S. dollar but also to Bitcoin. If one can detect an asset that will move in a logistic growth curve to Bitcoin early on, the extent of wealth that can be built is extraordinary. Below are a couple of examples of the relative strength analyses I performed. Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash The above chart shows a downsloping regression channel, indicating that Bitcoin Cash decays in value relative to Bitcoin over time. Therefore, Bitcoin is a better long-term investment than Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin vs. Ethereum In the chart above, one can see that when compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum produces an upsloping regression channel. Since the Pearson correlation coefficient is quite low and since Ethereum was unable to reach a higher high relative to Bitcoin in the current halving cycle, the relative strength of Ethereum and Bitcoin are indeterminate. In light of this, I decided that investing in both Bitcoin and Ethereum could allow me to diversify and lower the risk of investing in only one of the two. Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, in a follow-up post, I'll reveal which other 3 cryptocurrencies I currently invest in. One of them may be a surprise to many. Feel free to leave a comment below indicating which cryptocurrencies you think should be in the top 5 long-term investing candidates. In conclusion, the analysis above shows that, to a reasonably high degree of certainty, cryptocurrency (Bitcoin specifically) is challenging the current monetary system in ways that it has not been challenged before. It is my belief that cryptocurrency is the next step in the evolution of human financial markets. It builds the infrastructure for a monetary system that equips humans with more efficient transactions within digital spaces. While the Bitcoin blockchain is far from perfect and is heavily reliant on non-renewable energy consumption, it solves many of the inefficiencies that financial systems have been unable to solve for millennia. If you enjoyed this post, I would greatly appreciate it if you leave a boost! If you have any questions or would like to share your thoughts, feel free to leave them in the comments below. In a future post, I plan to explain why cryptocurrency's displacement of existing monetary systems is becoming increasingly inevitable due to the proliferation of DeFi protocols. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Never borrow money or use margin to invest in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not backed or insured by any authority and is therefore a high-risk asset class. You can lose all or some of your money in cryptocurrency. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Education
by SpyMasterTrades
256