Learning the TradingView Platform: Exploring the Top Panel Pt.1In this video we will explore:
Symbol Search
Time Interval
Bar's Style
Compare or Add Symbol
If you would like to learn more about these items, check out the great material we have in the help center. 📚 🤔 📚
Spread Charts
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Time Interval
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Compare Tool
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Did you learn about anything that you may use from now on?
Let us know in the comments below 👇 👇
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A trading plan - What is it and why do you need one?In one of my previous publications I stated that the majority of new traders fail in the first 90 days of their trading "career". I also mentioned that one of the reasons for it was the lack of a trading plan.
So what is a trading plan and why do you need one?
Rather than explaining, I decided to give you an example. Below is an elaborate example of a trading plan. If you read through it, you'll understand what purpose it serves on a daily basis.
The goal of this publication is to give you an idea on how to build one for yourself that fits YOUR needs.
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TRADING PLAN
1️⃣ Trading Philospophy/Psychology
I believe successful trading is a learned SKILL. It is a science, and consistent profitability is achievable and can be duplicated.
I define success in trading as total financial freedom. The ability to stay home with my family. The freedom to choose my own schedule, and the ability to provide those I love with every excess, comfort and opportunity possible.
My mental state is a major factor in my success as a trader. I will constantly assess and adjust my trading state in order to mainatin a mindset conducive to greatness.
I accept as a fact, that my success is unlimited. I can achieve anything. Where others see impossibility, I will see unlimited opportunity.
I will be disciplined in every regard, and at all times as it relates to my trading plan and execution. I recognize that I am in the markets to become a full time trader. I am interested in profit. Trading is my business.
I accept as a fact that I will have losses. I will apply strict money management rules in order to limit those losses and maximize my profits.
Markets control themselves, my sole goal is to participate.
I trust my setups as I have backtested them and know how they perform historically.
I am an aggressive swing trader in the forex market. I use harmonic patterns and structure as my basis for entry in the market.
I will continue to educate myself on every aspect of trading, with the goal of broadening my market knowledge, and expand that knowledge into cryptocurrencies.
Setbacks are expected, but failure is not acceptable. There is only one option, only one end ... Success...
2️⃣ Trading Goals
On a daily basisI will try to find 2 good trade setups that answer my risk/reward criteria. I will not trade more than 2 setups per day.
My goal is to reach 60% profitability, which at a Risk:Reward ratio of minimum 1:1 will guarantee constant increase of my equity.
On a monthly basis I strive to achieve an equity growth of minimum 5%.
My goal is to become a full-time trader. In order to switch to full-time trading and quit my daily job, the following requirements need to be met:
A reserve capital needs to be built up that allows to maintain my current lifestyle without any other source of income.
50% of my total average profits per month should cover my monthly expenses, allowing me to live off trading while building my equity
If above requirements are met on average 6 months in a row, I will quit my daytime job and commit to full-time trading.
3️⃣ Daily Routine
Each morning I will wake up no later than 07:00, take a shower and have breakfast.
The latest at 08:00 I will start my analysis and look for potential trade setups.
I will also check what news is relevant for that day.
While I am still on my daytime job, I will enter my trades with a market order if setup occurs during analysis time, with a limit order if it falls within my daytime job working hours. Limit orders will be avoided as much as possible once I amable to revert to full-time trading.
On Mondays I do not place any trader before the US session open. On Fridays I will not place any trades after the NY mid-session.
I will not open a new trade within 4 hrs before an important news even is expected/planned that might have an impact on the currency pair in question. I will aslo wait at least 1 hour after the news event to open a new trade for that pair. Therefore it is extremely important to be aware of upcoming news events.
4️⃣ Technical Analysis
I will perform a top-down analysis of every pair that I trade during my daily technical analysis.
I will determine the daily timeframe to determine whether the pair is trending or in consolidation and to determine relevant structure zones.
After that I will go to my trading timeframe 120/240 minutes to look for potential trade setups.
5️⃣ Trade Setups
🅰 Structure Trades
➖ Bounce of structure:
► Trading Method:
check for minimumof 3 instances within the last 15 days where price action bounced off the structure, wait for candle closure and enter next bar market
► Targets and Stop Loss :
§ Trend following
- TP1: 75% position size at .618 retracement of previous move - roll SL to 0.382 fib
- TP2: 20% position size at 100% retracement of previous move - roll SL to 0.618 fib.
- 5% of position remains open with a trailing stop 25 pips (and maximum.618 fib)
§ Counter trend & Consolidation
- TP1: 75% of position size at .382 retracement of previous move - roll SL to break even
- TP2: 20% of position size at .618 retracement of previous move - roll SL to .382 fib
- 5% of position remains open with a trailing stop 25 pips (and maximum .382 fib)
➖ Break of structure:
► Trading Method:
wait for break and close below/above previous structurewith a min of 20 pips, then look for a retracement into previous structure. If structure holds on candle close, enter next bar market.
► Targets and Stop Loss:
- TP1: 75% at lowest low/highest high of the move that broke the structure, roll stops to break even
- TP2: 20% at 1.618 extension of previous move - roll stops to previous LL/HH
- 5% of position remains open with a trailing stop 25 pips (and max previous LL/HH)
🅱 Harmonic Patterns
➖Bat pattern .... *
* Note : I have omitted the rest of the setups here to keep the publication a bit shorter
6️⃣ Traded currency pairs
EURUSD
GPBUSD
USDCAD
EURNZD
...
7️⃣ Weekly evaluation
In order to improve my trading analysis and to learn from my mistakes, during the weekend I will do an analysis of my trades during the week. To be able to properly analyze trades:
I will keep a journal of my trades with entry, profit targets and stop loss.
I will alos make ascreenshot of the analysis done before entering the trade and the result after the trade is completed
On the completed trade screenshot, I will makr any related events that might have influenced the trade.
I will make a list of eventual mistakesmade and create an action plan in order to avoid them in the future. This action plan will be added to this trading plan.
8️⃣ Final Notes
This trading plan is my road map to success. Not following this plan will result in inconsistent results and potential failure. Sticking to the plan is a must in order for my trading business to succeed andto becomean independent consistently profitable trader and free myself from working for an employer. It will give me financial freedom and is the only way I will be able to reach my goals.
💪🏽 STICK TO THE PLAN! 💪🏽
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💡 Alright, so now you saw an example of what a trading plan could look like. Having a clear and concise trading plan is crucial for concistent trading results.
❔ Do you have a trading plan? Does it look similar? Is there something you think is missing?
❔ If not, was this publication helpful and will you create one for yourself? Why? Why not?
Look forward to your comments below. Oh, and if you like this post, you know what to do! 👍🏽
Thanks for your visit! 🙏🏽
PS : also check out my other educational ideas below
Why the Quality of your trades matters more than the QuantityMost traders simply want to trade. They fear missing out on the next big move and they forget that the market is still going to be there tomorrow and the next day and 10, 20, 50 years into the future. Everything in the market repeats and that means there will be another opportunity right around the corner, so stop worrying.
Today is not the last day you will have to trade and yet many people trade and think like it is! Over-trading is the number one reason that most traders don’t succeed; it’s a ‘cancer’ to your trading account and to your dreams.
What would be considering "over-trading?"
If you find you are almost always in a trade, you’re over-trading. If you find that you are preoccupied with the markets and your trades, you’re over-trading or you’re about to over-trade. If you are in more than one trade at a time you’re probably over-trading unless you have carefully divided up your overall 1R risk amongst all the trades.
There are many other examples of over-trading, but the basic fact of the matter is that you know if you’re trading too much because you won’t be able to sleep at night and you will be hemorrhaging money.
I personally only trade 1 to 6 times per month approximately, which all my students clearly know about that, and I very carefully select my trades and filter out the signals I don’t like.
A. Here’s what over-trading does to your trading results and account…
1. Too many trades dilute your edges
The more trades you take, the more diluted your trading edge becomes. A trading edge increases your chances of success, but the simple fact is, there are only going to be so many high-probability trade signals each week, month, year etc. no matter what your edge is.
So, once you start breaking away from your trading edge and start taking lower-quality trades that don’t meet your criteria, you start lowering your chances of success. You are basically diluting your trading edge down to where eventually it will be no better than random or worse.
basically diluting your trading edge down to where eventually it will be no better than
random or worse.
Market Noise vs Quality Trades – There is market noise, and then there are actual high-probability price events, you must know the difference. I wrote an article that touches on this titled how to trade sideways markets and I suggest you check it out to learn more and see some chart examples. The point here is that when you don’t know the difference between market noise and actual price action signals worth risking money on, you will naturally end up taking trades that are just noise and not actual signals, further diluting any edge you may have. The verdict is clear: Before you start risking your hard-earned money in the markets, make damn sure you know EXACTLY what your trading edge looks like and how to trade it so that you don’t ACCIDENTALLY end up over trading.
2. The spread and commission eats your profit
How do you think casinos make sooooo much money? Frequency. The high-frequency of games played means that their edge is going to play out to their advantage over and over again. The house always wins. In trading, the broker is the house, and they always win because not only are there a lot of people trading but probably 90% of them are trading WAY TOO MUCH. Hence, your only REAL “edge” as a retail trader or investor is to simply TRADE LESS!
Consider this : Every 100 trades you give back at least 100 to 150 pips equivalent in spread or commissions, so the more you trade the more you cost yourself simply due to the “churn” of your account.You want to avoid trading like you’re the casino player and premeditate, filter, and carefully select your trades. In a nutshell, to maintain your edge you want to avoid giving the market or broker the spread constantly.
Doing too much of anything is a bad idea
If you take a look at most endeavors, trading included, often times doing them too much or thinking too much / worrying too much about XYZ endeavor has a direct and negative relationship to how well you do at that thing.
For example : Drinking too much coke, eating too much Mcdonald’s, even working out too much or drinking too much water – all of these things can be bad for you. Being too worried about your significant other will end up pushing them away as it becomes unattractive and “needy”. One thing is true – too much of anything can hurt or even kill you and too many trades WILL kill your trading account for sure!
Your brain is wired to get addicted…
Drugs, sugar, video games, gambling, blue light from your smartphone, trading, what do all of these things have in common? They can all become insanely, dangerously addictive.
Our brains are wired and designed to become addicted to things, this is an evolutionary trait that served us well thousands of years ago as hunter-gatherers, but in modern-day society with all of its unhealthy vices and temptations, it tends to work against us and in certain cases, even kills us.
Our brains work on a reward system; when something feels good we get a little “shot” of “feel-good chemicals” such as dopamine and others. Hence, we become addicted to whatever gave us that dopamine rush, whether it was bad or good for us. For example, drugs are obviously bad for you but they can make you feel really good and we can become addicted to that good feeling even though we know the dire consequences it brings. Certain drugs like heroin are extremely addictive and can kill you very quickly, so they are especially dangerous. On the contrary, exercise also releases “feel-good” chemicals and you can become addicted to that feeling and you will be more likely to continue working out, obviously that is not a bad thing.
Knowing this basic information about how your brain works, it should be obvious that you need to be very careful and train yourself to get addicted to positive thoughts and processes so that you don’t become addicted to the negative ones.
When it comes to trading, we have a laptop in front of us with flashing colors and prices moving up or down that we can use to enter trades at the push of a button. Once we do that and hit a few winners, the brain says “hey that feels pretty damn good, do it again”, and so the trading addiction begins, if we aren’t careful.
If you do not create a trading plan where you plan out your trading edge and how you will behave in the market, you will naturally end up over-trading as you will get addicted to the feeling of “chasing” that winner. If you do not objectively plan our your trades in the beginning of your career, you will end up losing a lot of money due to trading addiction before you finally learn the lesson enough times that you either quit or have no money or desire left to trade with.
B . A CURE FOR OVER-TRADING
I’ve been trading the markets for about 2 years, teaching traders for over half that time, and without a doubt I have learned every lesson there is to learn in the markets many times over. So, the plan I am going to lay out for you below is born out of my experience and it is my opinion that if you follow it, you will be “cured” of the over-trading “cancer” that is probably destroying your trading account right now.
1. Set a max 10 to 12 trades a month, ideally less.
You must have some rigid rules built into your trading plan. Think of it like this: some of your trading strategy is rigid and then within that rigid structure there is some flexibility such as how much you risk, how you enter, where you place your stop loss, etc. But, when it comes to trade frequency, it really is necessary to say, “I am not going to take more than 10 trades a month” or 5 trades or whatever. Ideally, I would not trade more than 5 – 7 times a month. If you’re trading more than 10 times a month you’re probably over-trading.
2. Wait for setups matching your plan and apply a filter
When we talk about “applying a filter”, I am talking about a set of criteria that you use to check if a trade is worth taking or not. I like to use a T.L.S. filter wherein I am checking for a trade that has multiple pieces of confluence in its favor, at least 2 of 3: Trend, Level, Signal, etc.
Your goal is to trade like a sniper and wait patiently like a crocodile hunting its prey. You are not going to go after “every” target or the prey that looks strong and difficult to “kill”. Instead, you want to improve your odds of success by saving your “ammo” (trading capital) for the weaker / easier to get prey / trades. You only have so much money to risk just like a sniper only has so many bullets and a crocodile only has so much energy. Use it wisely or you’ll run out / blow out your account.
3. Set and forget approach
One of the big reasons traders trade too much is because they don’t give their trades enough time to play out and then they jump into another trade right away. Remember, good trades take time to play out and if you want to catch big market moves you have to be patient, this means you also have to not trade a lot. This is one reason why you need to set and forget your trades. Doing so not only improves your chances of making big gains but prevents you from trading too much and “chasing” trades.
4. Limit yourself to markets clearly moving in one direction with technical evidence
Traders often make the mistake of trading in choppy market conditions, this causes them to get in a trade and it immediately starts going against them, then they want to enter another one. The dopamine chase is underway at that point. Jumping from trade to trade is very dangerous. If you stick to markets that are clearly trending and moving in one direction aggressively, you are much less likely to over-trade.
CONCLUSION
One of the hard truths of trading is that there simply are not a large amount of highprobability price events in the market each week, month or year. So, it goes to reason that the more you trade the less impactful your trading edge becomes. Despite these facts, most traders continuously trade far too frequently each week, and they end up losing money.
My strategy is built on a low frequency trading approach so that I am basically trading as infrequently as possible whilst not passing up the most obvious trade setups. Obviously, there is some learning and skill required to know what constitutes the “best” and “obvious trade setups”, you aren’t going to just wake up one morning and magically know what to look for. With the help of my professional trading classes and the set and forget approach that I teach, you will begin to learn what a “high-quality” price action event looks like and you’ll learn to filter out the lower-quality ones from them. My end of day trading approach is inherently low-frequency FOR A REASON; it results in a selffulfilling type of function that works to systematically prevent over-trading which naturally increases your chances of long-term trading success. Which is what we all want, right?
Happy trading, CryptoKings!
Do well to follow for more lessons and trading analysis.... Love you all.
The Importance of Understanding the Commodities MarketIn this educational post, I'll be explaining the reason why both investors and traders need to understand the commodities market.
The commodities market is a market in which raw, hard, and soft commodities are traded.
Examples of commodity assets include gold, oil, wheat, grain, copper, and even livestock.
While these aren't commonly traded markets among retail investors, understanding assets within the realm of commodities can provide an edge in trading and investing.
Benefits to Investors
- The primary reason that investors needs to understand the commodity market is because it helps provide an overall picture of the entire financial market.
- For instance, in the case of Nickel, Copper, Zinc, and other industrial metals, the price action differs depending on the market cycle, and certain metals are sensitive to, and heavily affected by specific industries.
- Popular commodities like Gold and Oil’s price action reflects the overall market trend and sentiment.
- As such, a retail investor with a deep understanding in commodities is capable of looking at the stock market from a different angle.
- Secondly, understanding commodities provides a huge advantage in terms of portfolio management.
- How 'well' you have invested, isn't simply determined by your annual return.
- Your sharpe ratio (your return divided by the volatility) tells a more accurate story.
- In order to succeed as a retail investor, you need to focus on increasing your sharpe ratio, or your risk adjusted return.
- And the best way to do so, is to diversify, specifically by looking at the correlation between certain assets.
- There are a plethora of assets in the commodities market that provide a great hedge / means of diversification against the stock market.
- Leveraging this knowledge will help investors design a portfolio that provides them great risk-adjusted-returns.
Benefits to Traders
- The commodities market can be a great opportunity for traders, as long as they spend their time getting used to the market.
- Normally, when the stock market is overbought, or when it demonstrates sideways action, traders often make the mistake of overtrading.
- Traders enter positions at suboptimal levels, because they have no option but to trade at the stock market.
- However, understanding the commodity market gives them an edge. The best analogy to explain this, is like playing online poker.
- When playing poker, the player waits for good hands to appear, so he can make a bet in his favor.
- When he plays online poker, he can have multiple games going on at once, and play the game where he gets the upper hand.
- In the same vein, when a trader knows how to trade commodities, instead of waiting for a good entry in the stock market, he can simply trade assets within the commodities market.
- If you think stocks are overvalued, there’s a chance for you to move onto gold, silver, oil, or even industrial metals.
- You can take a look at multiple assets, and find one that has a good risk/reward ratio right now.
Conclusion
The commodity market is a market that is huge in size, yet often overlooked my many, if not most retail traders and investors. However, understanding which assets are traded, their price action (in relation to other assets), can help both investors and traders acquire an edge.
The 2% Rule? (Never Break It)What Is the 2% Rule?
The 2% rule is an investing strategy where an investor risks no more than 2% of their available capital on any single trade. To implement the 2% rule, the investor first must calculate what 2% of their available trading account is: Example: $5,000.00 account equals $100.00 risk per trade.
Key Takeaways:
The 2% rule is an investing strategy where an investor risks no more than 2% of their available capital on any single trade.
To apply the 2% rule, an investor must first determine their available capital.
Stop-loss orders can be implemented to maintain the 2% rule risk threshold as market conditions change.
How the 2% Rule Works
The 2% rule is a restriction that investors impose on their trading activities in order to stay within specified risk management parameters. For example, an investor who uses the 2% rule and has a $100,000 trading account, risks no more than $2,000–or 2% of the value of the account–on a particular investment.
By knowing what percentage of investment capital may be risked, the investor can work backward to determine the total number of lot size to purchase.
The trader can also use stop-loss orders to limit downside risk.
In the event that market conditions change, an investor may implement a stop order to limit their downside exposure to a loss that only represents 2% of their total trading capital. Even if a trader experiences ten consecutive losses, using this investment strategy, they will only draw their account down by 20%.
The 2% rule can be used in combination with other risk management strategies to help preserve a trader’s capital. For instance, an investor may stop trading for the month if the maximum permissible amount of capital they are willing to risk has been met.
📚EDUCATION: THE BASICS OF TRADING EXPLAINED📚
Hello, Traders!
The basics of what it takes to be a successful trader are simple and obvious
Yet daily, I see traders who fail at one or multiple KEY points that sink their performance and they keep losing accounts even though these people do have the understanding of the market that would have been sufficient enough for them to be profitable if they followed the basic rules. Trading is as much about pattern recognition and capacity for abstract thinking as it is about the personality type, self-discipline, and specific mindset.
The lucky few are born fit for trading, but others might train themselves.
Below, is the breakdown of the basics behind the day trading!
✅ TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT GAMBLING
99% of the new traders have unrealistic expectations of the kind of returns trading might deliver. To make matters worse, they do not realize that it will take years of trial and error before they can make trading Their only source of income.
These delusions make the newbies treat trading like gambling. To AVOID this, please follow these 4 easy steps:
🔥SET AND KEEP YOUR RISK-REWARD.
I recommend risking no more than 1% of the deposit per each trade, which also implies using a variable lot size for every trade, so that no matter the SL
size in pips, or the pair you are trading, the dollar value of the RIKS remains the same with each trade. That way, you are in full control of the risks you
are taking.
🔥DO NOT GO ALL IN.
Sounds obvious, but I’ve seen it so many times. New traders, who lost 70% of the account, GO ALL IN on one trade that they think might help them
recover the balance. That is NEITHER a way to trade, nor a way to learn. Slowly losing your account while learning how to trade, is simply a fee that you
are paying the market for your education. Accept it or fail.
🔥PROTECT CAPITAL=USE SL
I can’t stress this enough and I BEG YOU to use SL. Do NOT enter the trade thinking that if the SL level that you had in mind is hit you will close
manually. You will NOT close the position, and the longer you hold it the more is the temptation to wait a bit more because it seems that the reversal is
coming soon.
🔥CUT LOSSES
Set a daily loss limit. For example, you can Ban yourself from trading for the rest of the day if you lost more than 3 trades in a row. You will enter what
is called a tilt most likely, and you will NOT be productive that day. The same goes for a week. Lost more than 10% of the account in a week? Next week
NO TRADING for you. Watch the market passively, or trade on the demo! By the way, That can be helpful even for professional traders too!
✅KEEPING A COOL HEAD IS KEY
The ideal trader is the one who can set all emotions aside as a robot would, while simultaneously keeping the versatility of the human mind and the intuition, that the machines lack(yet). It is of utmost importance for the new traders to understand that being right about the direction but entering too early or too late is the same as being WRONG because the result will be a LOSS.
Here is how to keep cool:
🔥CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS.
Both euphoria and a panic attack are your enemies so the more detached you are, the better. Emotions are for the casino, and we are doing business
here, remember?
🔥AVOID FOMO( FEAR OF MISSING OUT)
That one applies mostly to the trades that you are not so sure about, but still want to take them, in fear of not making money. And the early entries are
determined by FOMO too( what if the price does not reach my limit order, and the trade plays out well, but without ME?)
FOMO is Incredibly counterproductive, don't let it control you!
🔥DON’T FOLLOW OTHERS
Avoid herd mentality! 99% of traders lose money, so doing what everyone does inevitably lands you in the 99% category.
🔥BUILD A WATCH LIST
A LOT of the beginners try to PREDICT behavior of the particular instrument that they decided to trade for some reason, instead of going through the
pairs looking for a ready setup that you KNOW works. The former approach leads to finding patterns, key levels, and setups that just aren’t there.
Naturally, the result of trading these is an inevitable LOSS.You should Build a watchlist big enough for your to have a choice, and go through it at
regular intervals, looking for opportunities but NOT INVENTING them.
✅ CONSISTENCY OVER BOOM-BUST STYLE
Consistent trading is the only way to make trading a reliable source of income. Slow but steady gains always beat leap-like boom-bust performance.
The psychological pressure of the latter will most likely break you sooner or later, and who needs gray hair in their 30es anyway?
That is how you achieve consistency:
🔥FIND A STRATEGY
Do the research on multiple trading strategies and pick those that you understand and that are compatible with your personality.
🔥USE PAPER TRADING AND BACKTESTING
To select which strategy is right for you, use backtesting to see how the strategy performed in the past. And use paper trading to see how the strategy
works in real-time.Once you chose the strategy, go back to paper trading and backtesting to polish it.
🔥TRACK YOUR TRADES
Keeping track of your trading! Working with that data is an invaluable tule for the trader, that helps identify your strengths and weaknesses, while also
helping you notice patterns in your trading that would have been left unrecognized otherwise.
🔥FORMALIZE YOUR RULES
Objectivity is KEY for consistent trading because during the rough patches of the market, being sure of your rules helps you stay in the market, waiting
for the tailwind, instead of questioning your strategy or your implementation of it. Create a strict ALGORITHM and follow it step by step. In order to do
that, you need to define every element of your strategy as precisely as possible. For example, a level for you is a daily horizontal level with at least 3
touchpoints, a breakout is valid only if the 4H candle closed above the level, etc...
The less vague the terms, the fewer emotions will be involved in deciding whether to enter the trade or not.
❗️ IN CONCLUSION: If you want to become a trader, remember:
1- It will take YEARS to learn how to trade.
2- You will lose a TON of money in the process
3- You will FAIL with 95% probability.
4-Realistic returns from trading are WAY lower than you think
5-BUT when you succeed, you will set yourself free!
Please SUPPORT This Idea By A LIKE and COMMENT!
Learning the TradingView Platform: Introduction to the Top PanelIn this video we will be covering what the Top Panel has to offer and some of its functions.
This will be the first part of a video series where we will be providing video walkthroughs of tools and items on the TradingView platform.
We hope that this helps both the brand new TradingView user as well as the seasoned user.
Feel free to let us know what features you want to learn more about below!
Using Volume & Open Interest data as secondary indicatorsIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
Several chartists use the approach of price-action to predict the market movements. Some include volume too. However, most professional traders prefer using a multidimensional approach to market analysis. Price, Volume and Open Interest are the 3 dimensions which are carefully evaluated by these traders.
Open Interest
The total number of outstanding or unliquidated contracts at the end of the day is referred to as Open Interest. It represents the total number of outstanding longs or shorts in the market. Please note: It is not the summation of both
It is the number of contracts. Every contract needs 2 parties- a buyer and a seller. Hence, two parties agreeing on trade forms 1 contract. The open interest figures change every day. These changes such as increase or decrease in OI give the traders a clue as to how the market might behave next.
Few days back, during the end of the weekend, you might have heard that BTC rallied such violently after a short squeeze, where a lot of the short positions got liquidated. That is nothing but an aspect of the Open Interest.
With every trade that goes through, the OI might:
Increase
Decrease
Stay unchanged
These changes are discussed in Table 1.
If both the buyer and seller are initiating a new position, a new contract gets established.
If buyer is initiating a new long position, while the seller liquidates an old long, the number of contract remains unchanged.
Similarly, if the buyer liquidates an old position, while the seller initiates a new position, OI doesn’t change.
If both traders are liquidating old positions, the OI goes down.
These changes in OI allow traders to predict the market momentum. Most traders use OI in conjunction with ‘Volume’ and ‘Price’. To understand, what these changes in OI, we take a look at table 2.
Presently, we have seen the markets entering a long term consolidation. A build-up in open interest during consolidation periods intensifies the ensuing breakout.
95% of traders follow the same technical indicators. Hence, the bigger players tend to use this fact to their advantage.
I would like to conclude the analysis by stating that: The markets can continue to be irrational as long it deems fit. No analysis is sacrosanct!
"Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy talks about different aspects in detail. The above analysis has been researched and referenced from different parts of the book.
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Keep supporting:)
-Mudrex
History of Forex | From Ancient to the Modern Day
We have come a long way from the previously practiced barter system to the modern-day system of trading currency. Following is a brief summary of the evolution of currency and how it gave rise to Forex Trading.
Here are the main stages that are illustrated on the chart:
1️⃣The Ancient system of Trading - Trading with Gold
As early as 6th century BC, the first gold coins were produced, and they acted as a currency because they had critical characteristics like portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
2️⃣Bank Notes Originated - Deposited Gold in banks in exchange for banknotes
3️⃣Role of Geography - Various banks of different regions printed different currencies
Gold Standard - Currency pegged to gold
In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
4️⃣Bretton Woods System - Currency pegged to USD
The first major transformation of the foreign exchange market, the Bretton Woods System, occurred toward the end of World War II.
The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. It attempted this by creating an adjustable pegged foreign exchange market. An adjustable pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate policy whereby a currency is fixed to another currency. In this case, foreign countries would 'fix' their exchange rate to the US Dollar.
5️⃣Birth of Floating Currency - Currency that is not pegged to any assets or other currencies is known as a 'floating currency'.
And what will be next?
Very hard to say but blockchain technologies will make the system change again.
❤️Please, support this educational post with a like and lovely comment❤️
How to manage & deal with consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: How to manage & deal with losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Hi everyone:
Today I want to go over a very key trading psychology lesson on how to deal with losses, especially consecutive losses.
This is bound to happen to any traders, whether you are new or experienced. ITs something all professional traders will have to deal with on a regular basis.
Understand that, dealing with losses psychologically is the key factor in the success of a trader.
This is because losses are inevitable, and trading is a probability, which trades that you take will end up both in wins and losses.
However, traders usually can not accept losses, due to their ego, greed and other emotional factors.
Aside from having a good risk management, trading plan, and trading strategies, traders can still experience the psychological emotions of losing.
This is due to the fact that we are humans and we are an “emotional” animal. We don't want to be wrong, at all.
Taking a loss is like getting slapped in the face by the market, which we have egos to fight against.
What ends up after taking losses or consecutive losses, it puts traders at a disadvantage where their emotion is high, and likely to “revenage” trade to chase back losses, which end up in a deeper hole.
To deal with such psychological phenomena, take a step back and observe your situation:
First, did you follow your trading plan/strategy on how to enter, set SL/TP, and management ?
Second, did you take an emotional trade due to greed or fear of missing out ?
Third, have you journal down your losses and review them to make sure they are trades you really want to risk your capitals on ?
By now you will see why we need to review these. Trading is a probability, not right or wrong. It's a random variable that you are putting your $ at risk.
So if you understand the rules and plans that you follow and execute a trade accordingly,
then there should NOT be any negative emotions towards the outcome of the trades, whether they are winners or losers.
When I discuss the trades I entered every week in my trade recaps videos, I am always happy to enter a position, even if it goes to a loss.
This is because I have done enough backtesting, chart work, and plan to enter a position.
I understand strictly from a probability point of view, I could have a higher strike rate, and more often the trades will end up as a winner rather than a loser.
However, I also understand and acknowledge that some trades will end up in a loss, disregard mine technical analysis or other’s fundamental analysis. It is what trading is all about.
When I have consecutive losses, I will always review the 3 points I mentioned above and make sure they are all valid for me.
Then I simply will take 1 day off from the market, chart, phone, and just get your mind clear. Come back strong after 1-2 days of rest, and have a positive mindset.
What traders often do when they have consecutive losses is to right away re-enter back into the market and try to chase back their losses.
This has always been the downfall of losing and it creates anxiety in traders’ minds.
Such a negative experience is going to stay in the traders’ mind longer and deeper, compared to consecutive winners.
So wise we understand that is the case how our brain is "programmed” into thinking, then it's up to us to do the opposite, and fight the urge to “revenge” our losses.
At the end of the day, no one is trading your trading account, except yourself.
Taking ownership of your account, learning to control our emotions, understanding the probability side of trading, and learning to let go, drop our ego will help us in the long run in this industry.
I hope these pointers can help some traders who are still struggling with this concept.
It's impossible not to take losses, but professional traders deal with it on a regular basis and still remain consistent in the long run.
Thank you
I will forward some Trading Psychology educational videos below on some of the topics explained today.
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
How to create a trading strategy?HOW TO CREATE A TRADING STRATEGY?
WHAT IS A TRADING STRATEGY?
Trading rules that systematize it, bring clarity, orderliness and predictability of the result. You can take a ready-made strategy and adapt it for yourself. And you can create your own
The main idea of the strategy, its rationale
The idea should be rational, based on market patterns that you understand. For example, trading with a trend or pullbacks. On technical or fundamental analysis, with or without indicators
A good trading strategy is not complicated, but simple. A large number of rules makes the strategy inconvenient and understandable for the trader himself.
Timing of trading
What timeframes do you want to trade on?
How much time are you willing to devote to trading?
What time will you trade?
Selection of trading instruments
Pick those tools. which you understand well
The strategy can be both universal (for many tools), and sharpened for specific toolsChoice of tools for analysis
1) When the main idea of the strategy emerged and it became clear how, when and what to trade, you need to decide on the tools of market analysis
2) If the strategy is indicator, then select indicators (from 2 to 5)
3) If the strategy is not indicator, then select patterns, figures of graphical analysis
4) If the strategy is based on fundamental analysis, then it is necessary to decide on which news to trade.
Trade entry rules
Under what conditions will you enter the market based on what signals?
When will you not open a trade?
What orders will you use market or pending?
Exit rules
Stop Loss and Take Profit
Under what conditions do you close a position?
How will you set stop loss and take profit?
Risk Management
Write down the risk per order, risk per day / week / month
(in percent or in currency)
Determine the maximum allowed number of losing trades
per day / week / month
Calculate the volume of a trading position (lot)
When there is a strategy, what's next?
Check the effectiveness of your strategy on the strategy tester or on a demo account
Maintain trade statistics to identify weaknesses of the strategy and remove them
M2 Money Supply in TV!Quick update:
We can now see the M2 Money supply in Trading View. Just type 'FRED:' as the search term as the symbol.
There was a TV notice about this, but I wanted to store it here too, because it's really helpful :)
Here's the notice:
www.tradingview.com
Also see these other instruments that are available now too via FRED:
tvblog-static.tradingview.com
Indicators For A Volume Profile Based Trading StrategyVolume Profile has been popular among futures traders since the beginning of electronic trading and the introduction of TPO charts. I use several scripts from the TradingView Volume Profile Suite for a trading strategy I'll teach in a upcoming video. For now, here are the scripts and indicators applied to the charts I show in this, and past, recordings.
Indicators on the 30m Chart:
Volume Profile > Session Volume HD
PriorDayOHLC (Available in the Public Library)
233 EMA (Built-ins)
Indicators on the 5m Chart
Volume Profile > Visible Range
VWAP Stdev Bands v@ Mod (Available in the Public Library)
The 3 Types of Traders. Who Do You Belong To? 🤔
There are thousands of different ways to trade the market.
During the last 100 years, various trading strategies and techniques were invented.
One of the ways to categorize them is to split them by types of traders.
Such a category type will lean on 2 main elements:
trading frequency and time frame selection.
1️⃣ - Scalper
I guess 99% of newbie traders start from scalping.
Trying to catch quick market moves and become rich quick,
newbies are practicing different scalping strategies.
What is funny about scalping is the fact that such a trading style is considered to be the easiest by the majority while remaining one of the hardest in the view of pros.
The main obstacle with scalping is a constant focus and rapid decision-making.
Scalpers usually open dozens of trading positions during the trading session, most of the time being in front of the screen constantly.
Paying huge commissions to the broker and dealing with complete chaos on lower time frames, the majority simply can't survive the pressure and drop, leaving the pie to true gurus.
2️⃣ - Day Trader
Day trading or intraday trading is the most appealing to me.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader for reflection & thinking.
Opening and managing on average 1-2 trades per trading session, the intraday trader is granted a certain degree of freedom.
However, with declining volatility, quite ofter intraday traders get a relatively low risk/reward ratio for their trades,
3️⃣ - Swing Trader
Swing trading is the best choice for traders having a full-time job.
Primarily being focused on daily/weekly time frames, swing trading is not demanding for a daily routine and aims at catching mid-term/long-term market moves.
With an average holding period being around 2 weeks and opening 1-2 trading positions per week, swing trading is considered to be the least emotional and involves low risk.
The main problem with swing trading is patience.
Correctly identifying the market trend and opening a trading position,
the majority tends to close their positions preliminary not being patient enough to let the price reach their target.
Which trading type do you prefer?
What is impulse and how to make money on it?What is momentum and how to make money on it?
Momentum is a sharp paranormal price movement in one direction or another, unusual for average daily fluctuations of an asset
How to build zones from which impulse movement is most likely to occur?
1) The price is pushed back from the previously built level
2) There is an impulse movement in the other direction
3) Correction to the level, from which the price pushed a little
4) consolidation, consolidation below the level, from which there will be an impulse movement
How it works?
1) the level above which the price consolidates and repels
2) Rollback from the price level at the moment
3) Impulse that breaks the level
4) We need to extend the level to understand where the key point will be
5) Fixing the price below the level
6) In anticipation of an impulse movement, at the very beginning of the movement, after fixing, we open an order
*** Works in the same way in long
What do you need to do, what to earn on this?
1) If you use impulses not all in a row, but the very first one after a trend reversal, then we have a chance to pick up all the movements, it all depends on your benchmarks, where you exit the market, according to your strategies.
2) Not every impulse level is the first, we estimate the situation from strong levels, from which the price can reverse
3) We focus on the opening of the session, the chance that the market will reverse at the end of the working day and give you less profit if it is at the beginning.
It is important to understand:
Price moves from level to level
The price does not always fix directly below / above the level
You can work both on the younger (m5, m15, m30, h1, ch4) and on the higher timeframes (d1, b1, m1)
The older the timeframe, the stronger the level from which an impulse can follow
During an impulse, funds are injected, a large player enters the market or a major player exits the market, stops-losses are collected, i.e. removal of market participants.
Our goal is to follow a major player who leads the price and get profit from it
Option Greeks and Implied VolatilityThere are many reasons why an investor or trader trades options. The main reasons, as with other derivatives markets, is to hedge another position or to speculate on the performance of the underlying security.
1) Hedging: A hedge is like an insurance policy in that it can help mitigate risk for a small fee. For example, a portfolio manager buys a large position in Company A stock for its long-term price appreciation potential but is worried that the next earnings report will show short-term issues. He or she can buy put options on that stock that will increase in value if the price of the stock falls on its earnings news.
2) Speculation: Options allow both buyers and sellers to capitalize on their market forecasts, whether they are bullish, bearish, or neutral. However, because options prices depend on many factors, including market volatility, traders can profit from increases or decreases in those factors as well.
While traders can look at individual options data, a very widely used display called an “options chain” lists all options, or a subset, available for a given expiration month. Options traders also look at derivatives of the price that measure how fast their prices decay over time, how fast their prices change with a given change in the price of the underlying, and more. These derivatives are designates with Greek letters such as delta and gamma, so traders call them “the Greeks” .
I. Delta – measures how much an option price changes for a one-point move in the underlying. Its value ranges between 0 and 1 for calls and between -1 and 0 for puts.
II. Gamma – measures the rate of change in delta. It is essentially the second derivative of price.
III. Vega – measures the risk from changes in implied volatility. Higher vol makes options more expensive since there is a greater change than the underlying security price will move above the strike price for a call.
IV. Theta – measures the rate of time-value decay and is always a negative number as time moves in only one direction.
V. Rho – measures the impact of changes in interest rates on an option’s price.
Implied volatility (IV) is the estimated volatility of a security’s price and is critical in the pricing of options. Although not a guarantee, implied volatility tends to increase while the market in the underlying security is bearish. Conversely, when the underlying security is bullish, implied volatility tends to decrease. This is due to the common belief that bear markets are riskier than bull markets.
The most important is that implied volatility is an estimate of the future volatility, or fluctuations, of a security’s price. While levels of implied volatility are associated with bullish and bearish markets in the underlying security, it really does not predict market direction. It only forecasts the sizes of potential price swings. Implied volatility is not the same as historical volatility, also known as realized volatility or actual volatility. Historical volatility measures past market changes in the price of the underlying asset.
Trade with care.
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Free climber Alex Honnold talks about riskAs you may have seen, TradingView’s got a new look and feel. As part of this rebrand, we’ve partnered with top athletes in the fields of climbing, skiing and adventuring, including legendary free soloing rock climber Alex Honnold. Alex knows a thing or two about risk – being the first person in the world to have ever free solo-climbed El Capitan in Yosemite Valley – so we thought we’d pick his brains and see if there’s anything we can learn from him about the topic.
Alex, what does the word ‘risk’ mean to you?
To me, risk means uncertainty. An unknown outcome. Or a chance that an unwanted outcome might occur. I guess "risk" feels like rolling the dice and seeing what happens. Which is something I try to avoid as much as possible in climbing.
What was the first ‘big risk’ you remember taking in your climbing career?
I grew up climbing in a climbing gym, so my first real "risks" were probably my first free solos outside, at a place called Lovers Leap. At the time it felt very exciting (scary) just because the whole experience was so new. I hadn't climbed outside much at that point so it felt like a huge adventure.
What do you do to de-risk your climbing?
One way to de-risk my climbing is to practice on similar climbs until I have a high degree of confidence that I can successfully do whatever I've set out for. If I have a proven track record on very similar climbs then I know that the risk can't be too high. I guess the other way to say that is just to practice until a climb feels easy. If it's well within my comfort zone then it's no longer very risky.
How did you formulate what’s a comfortable level of risk for you?
With climbing I normally just have a gut feeling – some things just feel really scary or make me feel uncomfortable. It's pretty unscientific, but it's the simplest way. If something makes me feel sick to think about then it's almost certainly too risky...
How do you push that boundary safely (well, as safely as possible)?
Oftentimes, if something feels too risky it can still get worked on further. I can minimize the risk through preparation or training. So for example, if a specific climb just feels really scary, I can break it down rationally and figure out which specific sections seem the scariest and then work on them specifically. By breaking a big climb down into pieces and working on each section in turn it can eventually start to feel more comfortable.
Thanks Alex
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We have more mini-interviews with Alex and others heading down the pipe soon, so make sure to keep an eye on Editors’ Picks in the coming weeks.
How to Optimize Your Trading.To increase the efficiency of your trades and have better outcomes, you need to monitor the market constantly. But how should you monitor a market with +10K tickers to find the best trade opportunities?
Random Walk Theory and Efficient Market:
Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other.
The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices fully reflect all available information and expectations, so current prices are the best approximation of a company’s intrinsic value. (Burton Malkiel, 1973)
I believe both of these theories became obsolete in the algorithmic trading era.
Look at the following examples:
Banks:
As you can see all these stocks have a significant positive correlation..!
Oil and Oil Companies:
EV Makers:
Cannabis Stocks:
After all these examples you should accept that stocks move in Clusters, and their prices could be under influence of others! The market is not efficient anymore..!
Having said this, one way to narrow down your watchlist could be clustering and then choosing between clusters by defining your favorable criteria..!
A lesson from Jim Simons:
"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it."
“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”
"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money."
I use some statistical modeling and narrow down the 10k to less than 50 to trade options, and I share My options trading watchlist link here:
www.tradingview.com
This list may change accordingly.
Conclusion:
There is no point in having many stocks from the same cluster in your watchlist, try to narrow it down as much as possible to increase your trading efficiency..!
Educational Article:
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | MASTER EMOTIONS & MASTER THE MARKET
The market is driven by people.
The crowds are always behind strong market rallies.
What the majority fails to recognize is the fact, that being chaotics in its nature, the markets are always trading in predictable patterns.
Believe it or now, but the market participants are driven by the same emotional impulses. It does not really depend on how wealthy is the person.
With the core motive being to make a ton of money with a little risk possible, we can derive a universal archetype.
Every asset, every financial instrument has an element of a "potential value". Being 100% subjective, an attempt to calculate the future value drives the market.
Depending on the current expectation of the crowd and its emotions it is necessary for a professional trader to learn to play with its behavior.
With many years of constant observations, the cyclic psychological curve was derived to explain the relationships between our emotions and market cycles.
On the chart, I have drawn 9 main stages of trader's psychology:
😶INDIFFERENCE - No opportunities are spotted, searching for the right pick.
🙂OPTIMISM – Positive outlook leading us to buy a certain asset
😃EXCITEMENT – Being initially right in our pick, we feel excited as bulls push the market to the new highs
The moment of happiness and feeling of being "a true investor"
🤑GREED – Being thrilled we start to ignore warning signs and add more and more cash to the market believing that the market will never stop.
😕ANXIETY – The market starts taking our gains back. Being biased and nihilistic we keep holding the position, thinking that it is just a pullback.
😩PANIC – Tremor. We are frozen. Emotions are draining our power. We are clueless and helpless. We totally lose the sense of control.
😭DEPRESSION – Position is closed. Money is lost. Considering trading & investment industry to be a scam.
🤔HOPE – The dawn. The market returns back to its normal state. Aspiration & desire to start again.
😆RELIEF – Again we start to believe in our strength. We return and the cycle repeats.
Do you recognize yourself in these stages?
Please, support our work with like and comment. It really helps.
EDUCATION - Candlestick Cheat Sheet ⚡⚡One of the most powerful tools in your trading arsenal should be candlestick patterns. Various candlestick patterns can tell us where the market is heading.
These patterns can be found on all timeframes, however the Daily candlestick patterns appear to be the most reliable.
Once you see these patterns, you can ready yourself for the next move and use other tools to enter the market such as flag patterns, MA strategy - which we've covered before (See linked charts).
Major fundamental news affecting The PriceFundamental news in the forex market provides the greatest energy for price movement. Only often these movements are unpredictable.
I have a news trading strategy in my feed titled "How to trade The News Correctly" ,
I recommend it to study if you have an aggressive trading style and want to earn even more on news
1)
Employment figures
The most important news event that all speculators and investors are guided by
is non-farm pay. This news event increases several times, at the time of the news
release, the volatility of the main instruments on which traders earn. The NFP
usually comes out on the first Friday of every new month.
2)
Balance figures
An indicator characterizing the difference between the value of
exported / imported goods and services
3)
Speeches and minutes
Last mention of key speeches and minutes such as ...
1) DOMC Statements and Press Conferences
2) Voting on MPC ratings and speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England
3) Press conferences of the ECB and speeches by the President of the ECB
4)
Retail Sale figures
the indicator characterizes the strength of consumer demand. Its growth indicates
an increase in the production of goods, a strengthening of the economy and currency.
Included in the calculation of GDP
5)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Reflects the shift in the cost of core consumer goods and services
6)
Expected and Forecasted Figures on the way out news
1) Positively affects the strengthening of the currency when the actual
figures after the release of the news turned out to be better than the predicted ones
2) Badly affect the strengthening of the currency when the actual numbers
are worse than expected
7)
Any kind of news that is spoken during these events has a very strong effect on all
foreign exchange and not only markets. Traders navigate and trade depending on
how they think a certain currency of the respective country can react.
❗ ❗ ❗ Constructiveness in trading: follow the news when trading and try not to open orders for half an hour, at the time of release and after the release of news for half an hour ❗ ❗ ❗