Top Technical Indicators PairingsWhile there is no single definitive answer to which specific combinations of technical indicators is the most profitable, I can try to provide some popular combinations and their application in trading strategies.
The success of these strategies depends on various factors such as the trader's skill, market conditions, and risk management techniques.
1. Moving Averages and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Moving averages smooth out price data to help traders identify trends. Two commonly used types are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A popular strategy is to use two moving averages with different timeframes, such as the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. When the shorter timeframe moving average (e.g., 50-day SMA) crosses above the longer timeframe moving average (e.g., 200-day SMA), it generates a bullish signal. Conversely, when the shorter timeframe moving average crosses below the longer one, it generates a bearish signal.
The MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that calculates the difference between two EMAs of the price and then smooths it with another EMA. A common configuration is the 12-day EMA, the 26-day EMA, and the 9-day signal EMA. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it generates a bullish signal, while a bearish signal occurs when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. Combining moving averages with MACD can provide stronger signals, as the moving averages identify trends and the MACD helps confirm them.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands:
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100 and is typically used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 is considered overbought, suggesting that the asset may be overvalued and due for a pullback. An RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting that the asset may be undervalued and due for a rebound.
Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average (usually the 20-day SMA) and two standard deviations above and below it. The bands expand and contract based on an asset's volatility. When the price touches the upper Bollinger Band, it could be a sign of overextension and an impending reversal to the downside. Conversely, when the price touches the lower Bollinger Band, it could indicate that the asset is oversold and due for a rebound.
By combining the RSI and Bollinger Bands, traders can identify potential reversal points with greater confidence. For instance, if the RSI indicates an overbought condition and the price touches the upper Bollinger Band, it could provide a stronger signal to exit long positions or enter short positions.
3. Stochastic Oscillator and ADX (Average Directional Index):
The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that compares an asset's closing price to its price range over a specific period. The indicator consists of two lines: %K and %D. When %K crosses above %D, it generates a bullish signal, while a bearish signal occurs when %K crosses below %D. Traders often look for overbought or oversold conditions, similar to the RSI.
The ADX is a non-directional indicator that measures the strength of a trend. A rising ADX indicates a strengthening trend, while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend. The ADX does not provide information on the direction of the trend; it merely indicates the trend's strength.
By combining the Stochastic Oscillator and ADX, traders can identify potential entry and exit points with greater confidence. For instance, if the Stochastic Oscillator signals a bullish crossover and the ADX is rising, it could indicate that the uptrend is strong, and a long position may be warranted. Conversely, if the Stochastic Oscillator signals a bearish crossover and the ADX is rising, it could suggest that the downtrend is strong, and a short position may be appropriate.
4. Support and Resistance with Volume Indicators:
Support and resistance levels are critical price points where buying or selling pressure tends to push the price back in the opposite direction. Support is a price level where buying pressure is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further, while resistance is a level where selling pressure is strong enough to stop the price from rising further.
Volume indicators, such as OBV (On-Balance Volume) or VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range), can provide insights into the strength of price movements. The OBV is a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days, reflecting buying and selling pressure. The VPVR displays the volume traded at different price levels, helping traders identify areas of high buying or selling interest.
By combining support and resistance levels with volume indicators, traders can better identify potential entry and exit points. For example, if the price is approaching a support level and the OBV is rising, it could suggest that buying pressure is increasing, and the price may bounce off the support level. Similarly, if the price is nearing a resistance level and the OBV is falling, it could indicate that selling pressure is increasing, and the price may reverse at the resistance level.
5. Fibonacci Retracements and Moving Averages:
Fibonacci Retracements are a popular tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci sequence. By measuring the distance between a significant high and low in a price trend, traders can identify key retracement levels, typically at 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These levels often act as support or resistance, where price reversals might occur.
Combining Fibonacci Retracements with moving averages can offer additional confirmation for potential reversal points. For instance, if a 50-day moving average aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, it could strengthen the case for a potential reversal at that price point.
6. Ichimoku Cloud and RSI:
The Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive technical analysis tool that provides information on trend direction, momentum, and support and resistance levels. It consists of five lines: Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B, and Chikou Span. A bullish signal is generated when the price moves above the cloud, while a bearish signal occurs when the price moves below the cloud.
By combining the Ichimoku Cloud with the RSI, traders can obtain more robust signals for potential trend reversals or continuations. For example, if the price breaks above the Ichimoku Cloud and the RSI moves above 50, it could indicate a strong bullish momentum, suggesting a long position. Conversely, if the price falls below the Ichimoku Cloud and the RSI drops below 50, it could signal a strong bearish momentum, suggesting a short position.
While these combinations of technical indicators have been popular and potentially profitable for predicting the performance of SPY up to September 2021, it's crucial to remember that no strategy is foolproof. The success of a trading strategy depends on various factors, such as the trader's skill, market conditions, and risk management techniques.
7. Chart Patterns and Volume Indicators:
Chart patterns are visual representations of market psychology and can help traders identify potential trend reversals or continuations. Some common chart patterns include Head and Shoulders, Double Tops and Bottoms, Triangles, and Flags. These patterns often suggest impending price movements based on historical performance.
By combining chart patterns with volume indicators like OBV (On-Balance Volume) or VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range), traders can gain insights into the strength of price movements and validate potential breakouts or reversals. For example, a bullish breakout from a chart pattern accompanied by increasing OBV could indicate strong buying pressure, supporting the likelihood of a sustained upward move. Conversely, a bearish breakdown from a chart pattern accompanied by decreasing OBV could suggest strong selling pressure, supporting the likelihood of a continued downward move.
8. Candlestick Patterns and Moving Averages:
Candlestick patterns are another form of visual analysis that can provide insights into market sentiment and potential price direction. Common candlestick patterns include the Hammer, Shooting Star, Engulfing Pattern, and Doji. These patterns can offer short-term signals for potential reversals or trend continuations.
Combining candlestick patterns with moving averages can help traders confirm potential trend changes or continuations. For example, a bullish candlestick pattern occurring near a rising moving average could suggest that the uptrend is likely to continue. Similarly, a bearish candlestick pattern near a falling moving average could indicate that the downtrend may persist.
9. Multi-timeframe Analysis:
Using multiple timeframes in technical analysis allows traders to gain a more comprehensive understanding of market trends and price action. By examining different timeframes, such as daily, weekly, and monthly charts, traders can identify the primary trend, intermediate trend, and short-term fluctuations.
By applying technical indicators and chart patterns across various timeframes, traders can obtain more robust trading signals and improve their decision-making process. For example, a moving average crossover on a daily chart may provide a more significant signal if it aligns with a key support or resistance level on a weekly chart.
10. Divergence Analysis with Oscillators:
Divergence analysis involves comparing the price action of an asset with an oscillator, such as the MACD, RSI, or Stochastic Oscillator. A divergence occurs when the price makes a new high or low, but the oscillator fails to follow suit, suggesting a potential reversal or weakening of the current trend.
For instance, if an asset's price reaches a new high but the RSI fails to make a new high, it could signal a bearish divergence, indicating that the uptrend may be losing momentum. Conversely, if the price makes a new low and the RSI fails to make a new low, it could signal a bullish divergence, suggesting that the downtrend may be losing steam.
By incorporating divergence analysis with other technical indicators or chart patterns, traders can enhance their decision-making process and identify potential trend reversals with greater confidence.
In conclusion, while various combinations of technical indicators, chart patterns, and analytical techniques have been popular and potentially profitable for predicting the performance, the success of a trading strategy depends on various factors, such as the trader's skill, market conditions, and risk management techniques.
Traders must continuously evaluate and adjust their strategies based on changing market conditions and consider other factors such as fundamentals, economic news, and global events. It's also essential to practice proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders and position sizing, to minimize potential losses and enhance the overall success of a trading strategy.
Community ideas
A Great Trading Strategy For New/Unprofitable TradersHey gang! Thanks for watching.
Reminder -The most important bits of a strategy are:
- directional bias
- where to trade
- where to risk
- how to manage
There's one final piece that we didn't mention in the video - capital management. AKA - how much to spend, of all of your capital, on the risk in a given trade.
A great rule of thumb is that no trade should risk more than 3% of your capital at any one time. Breakout trading has a mixed win rate, and sometimes you can have lots of losses in a row. You need to control for this.
Thanks again and let us know how and where you think this strategy could be further improved.
Cheers!
(Again, none of this is investment advice, simply educational material about good trading practices - all our content is subject to our terms of service.)
📊Liquidity GrabSmall and big players tend to acquire larger positions in the market than they can afford, in an attempt to benefit from the leverage. This is where the concept of liquidity grab comes into play. Large trades and institutional investors need to locate liquidity areas in the market to complete their trades. Stops and stop-loss orders are critical for survival in a leveraged market. Stop hunting is a common practice in Forex trading, where traders are forced to leave their positions by triggering their stop-loss orders. This can create unique opportunities for some investors, which is called a liquidity grab. Stop hunting is a trading action where the price and volume action threatens to trigger stops on either side of support and resistance. When a large number of stops are triggered, the price experiences higher volatility on more orders hitting the market. Such volatility in price generates opportunities for participants to enter a trade in a favourable environment or protect their position. The fact that too many stop losses triggered at once result in sharp moves in the price action is the reason behind the practice of liquidity grab.
📍 What is liquidity sweep?
In trading, a liquidity sweep is the process of filling an order by taking advantage of all available liquidity at multiple price levels. Traders use this method to ensure their orders are filled at the best possible price by breaking up their order into smaller sub-orders and spreading them across multiple price levels. Institutional traders and high-frequency trading firms commonly use liquidity sweeps for efficient and quick execution of large trade volumes.
📍 Liquidity Zones
Big players in trading aim for the best prices but face challenges finding sufficient counter-forces to fill their large orders. Entering the market at low liquidity areas creates more volatile markets, negatively impacting the average price. Conversely, entering at high liquidity areas results in less volatile markets, ensuring a better average price for the position. These liquidity zones are where stop-loss orders are placed, and the concept of "liquidity grab" comes from the need for big players to enter the market in these zones to take large positions. Traders use swing lows and swing highs to create these liquidity zones and place stops as reference points, resulting in either a reversal to the mean or a breakout of the level.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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Fibonacci Levels and How They Can Be Used in TradingGreetings, @TradingView community! This is @Vestinda, bringing you a helpful article on the topic of Fibonacci Retracements and how to effectively utilize them in your trading strategies.
Fibonacci retracement levels are helpful for traders and investors in financial markets. They're horizontal lines on price charts that can show where price may reverse direction.
These levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence, which is a series of numbers that occur in math and finance.
Use case:
The first thing to understand about the Fibonacci tool is that it is most effective when the market is trending.
In an upward trending market, traders commonly use the Fibonacci retracement tool to identify potential buying opportunities on retracements to key support levels. Conversely, in a downward trending market, traders may look for opportunities to short sell when the price retraces to a Fibonacci resistance level.
Fibonacci retracement levels are regarded as a predictive technical indicator because they attempt to forecast where the price will be in the future.
Based on the theory, when trend direction is established, the price tends to partially return or retrace to a previous price level before continuing to move in the direction of the trend.
How to Find Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Fibonacci retracement levels can be found by identifying the key Swing High and Swing Low points of an asset's price movement. Once these points are established, you can use the Fibonacci retracement tool, which calculates the potential levels of support and resistance based on the ratios between the key points.
To apply the Fibonacci retracement tool, click and drag from the Swing Low to the Swing High in a downtrend, or from the Swing High to the Swing Low in an uptrend. This generates a set of horizontal lines at predetermined Fibonacci ratios, including 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.
Are you keeping up with me? ;)
Now, let's explore some examples of how Fibonacci retracement levels can be applied in cryptocurrency trading
The Uptrend:
In this instance, the Fibonacci retracement levels were plotted by selecting the Swing Low and Swing High points, which were observed on January 8th, 2021 at a price of $41,904.
The Fibonacci retracement levels were $33,521 (23.6%), $29,197 (38.2%), $26,114 (50.0%*), $23,356 (61.8%), and $19,925 (76.4%), as shown in the chart.
Traders anticipating that if BTC/USD retraces from its recent high and it will likely find support at a Fibonacci retracement level. This is due to the tendency of traders to place buy orders at these levels as the price drops, creating a potential influx of buying pressure that can drive up prices.
While the 50.0% ratio is not officially recognized as a Fibonacci ratio, it has nonetheless become widely used and has persisted over time.
Now, let’s look at what happened after the Swing High occurred.
Price bounced through the 23.6% level and continued to fall over the next few weeks.
Two times tested 38.2% but was unable to fall below it.
Subsequently, around January 28th, 2021, the market continued its upward trend and surpassed the previous swing high.
Entering a long position at the 38.2% Fibonacci level would have likely resulted in a profitable trade over the long run.
The Downtrend
Next, we will explore the application of the Fibonacci retracement tool in a downtrend scenario. Here is a 4-hour chart depicting the price action of ETH/USD.
As you can see, we found our Swing High at $289 on 14 February 2020 and our Swing Low at $209 later on 27 February 2020
The retracement levels are $225 (23.6%), $236 (38.2%), $245 (50.0%), $255 (61.8%) and $269 (76.4%).
In a downtrend, a retracement from a low could face resistance at a Fibonacci level due to selling pressure from traders who want to sell at better prices. Technical traders often use Fibonacci levels to identify areas of potential price resistance and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Let’s take a look at what happened next.
The market did make an attempt to rise, but it briefly halted below the 38.2% level before reaching the 50.0% barrier.
The placement of orders at the 38.2% or 50.0% levels would have resulted in a profitable trade outcome.
In these two instances, we can observe that price positioned itself at a Fibonacci retracement level to find some temporary support or resistance.
These levels develop into self-fulfilling support and resistance levels as a result of all the people who utilize the Fibonacci tool.
All those pending orders could affect the market price if enough market participants anticipate a retracement to take place close to a Fibonacci retracement level and are prepared to enter a position when the price hits that level.
In conclusion:
It's important to note that pricing doesn't always follow an upward trajectory from Fibonacci retracement levels. Instead, these levels should be approached as potential areas for further research and analysis.
If trading were as simple as placing orders at Fibonacci retracement levels, markets wouldn't be so volatile.
However, as we all know, trading is a complex and dynamic process that requires a combination of knowledge, skill, and experience to succeed.
We are truly grateful for your attention and time in reading this post. If you found it insightful and beneficial, we would be thrilled if you could show your support by clicking the <> button and subscribing to our page.
We are excited to share that our upcoming post will showcase what occurs when Fibonacci retracement levels do not perform as expected. Stay tuned for an informative and professional read.
Special Report: Celebrating 40 Years of Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! )
On March 30, 1983, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) launched futures contract on WTI crude oil. This marked the beginning of an era of energy futures.
WTI is now the most liquid commodity futures contract in the world. It’s 1.7 million daily volume is equivalent to 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil and $125 billion in notional value. For comparison, global oil production was 89.9 million barrels per day in 2021.
Looking back at 1983, exactly 40 years ago:
• NYMEX was primarily a marketplace for agricultural commodities, with Maine Potato Futures being its biggest contract;
• NYMEX was a small Exchange with 816 members, mainly local traders and brokers;
• Known as Black Gold, crude oil was a strategic commodity regulated by governments and monopolized by the Big Oil, the so-called “Seven Sisters”;
• Pricing of crude oil was not a function of free market but controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC), an oil cartel.
The birth of crude oil futures contract was a remarkable story of financial innovation and great vision. Facing a “Mission Impossible”, NYMEX successfully pulled it off. At the helm of the century-old Exchange was Michel Marks, its 33-year-old Chairman, and John E. Treat, the 37-year-old NYMEX President.
The “Accidental Chairman”
Michel Marks came from a long-time NYMEX member family. His father, Francis Q. Marks, was a trading pit icon and influential member. Since high school, the younger Marks worked as a runner on the trading pit for his family business. After receiving an Economics degree from Princeton University, Michel Marks returned to NYMEX as a full-time member, trading platinum and potatoes.
In 1977, the entire NYMEX board of directors resigned, taking responsibility for the Potato Futures default from the prior year. Michel Marks was elected Vice Chairman of the new Board. He was 27 years old.
One year later, the Chairman at the time suffered a stroke. Michel Marks replaced him as the new NYMEX Chairman. At 28, he’s the youngest leader of any Exchange in the 175-year history of modern futures industry.
White House Energy Advisor
John E. Treat served in the US Navy in the Middle East and later worked as an international affairs consultant in the region. He received an Economics degree in Princeton and a master’s degree in international relations from John Hopkins.
During the Carter Administration (1977-1981), Treat worked at the US Department of Energy. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs and sat on the National Security Council and the Federal Energy Administration. In his capacity, Treat was at the center of the formation of US energy policy.
After President Carter lost his reelection bid, Treat left Washington in 1981. At the time, NYMEX was exploring new contracts outside of agricultural commodities. One possible direction was the energy sector, where NYMEX previously listed a Heating Oil contract with little traction in the market. With his strong background, Treat was recruited by NYMEX as a senior vice president.
A year later, after then President Richard Leone resigned, Treat was nominated by Chairman Marks to become NYMEX President. He was 36 years old.
The Birth of WTI Crude Oil Futures
In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty and established the Islamic Republic of Iran, led by Shiite spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
Shortly after, the Iran-Iraq War broke out. Daily production of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of crude oil rose from $14 to $35 per barrel. This event was known as the second oil crisis. It triggered a global economic recession, with U.S. GDP falling by 3 percent.
After President Reagan took office in 1981, he introduced a series of new policies, known as Reaganomics, to boost the U.S. economy. The four pillars that represent Reaganomics were reducing the growth of government spending, reducing federal income taxes and capital gains taxes, reducing government regulation, and tightening the money supply to reduce inflation.
In terms of energy policy, the Reagan administration relaxed government regulations on domestic oil and gas exploration and relaxed the price of natural gas.
NYMEX President John Treat sensed that the time was ripe for energy futures. He formed an Advisory Committee to conduct a feasibility study on the listing of crude oil futures. His strategic initiative received the backing of Chairman Michel Marks, who in turn gathered the support of the full NYMEX membership.
Arnold Safir, an economist on the advisory board, led the contract design of WTI crude oil futures. The underlying commodity is West Texas Intermediate produced in Cushing, Oklahoma. The delivery location was chosen for the convenience of domestic oil refineries. WTI oil contains fewer impurities, which results in lower processing costs. US refineries prefer to use WTI over the heavier Gulf oil.
WTI trading code is CL, the abbreviation of Crude Light. Contract size is 1,000 barrels of crude oil. At $73/barrel, each contract is worth $73,000. Due to the profound impact of crude oil on world economy, NYMEX lists contracts covering a nine-year period.
On March 29, 1983, the CFTC approved NYMEX's application. The next day, WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX floor for the first time.
Competing for the Pricing Power
Now that crude oil futures were listed. Initially, only NYMEX members and speculators were trading the contracts. All the oil industry giants sat on the sidelines.
John Treat knew that without their participation, the futures market could not have meaningful impact on the oil market, not to mention a pricing power over crude oil.
In early 1980s, the global oil market was monopolized by seven Western oil companies, known as the "Seven Sisters". Together, they control nearly one-third of global oil and gas production and more than one-third of oil and gas reserves.
1) Standard Oil of New Jersey, later became Exxon;
2) Standard Oil of New York, later became Mobil Oil Company; It merged with Exxon in 1998 to form ExxonMobil;
3) Standard Oil of California, later became Chevron; It took over Texaco in 2001, and the combined company is still named Chevron;
4) Texaco, collapsed in 2001 and was taken over by Chevron;
5) Gulf Oil, which was acquired by Chevron in 1984;
6) British Persian Oil Company, operating in Iran, withdrew after the Iranian Revolution and then fully operated the North Sea oil fields, later British Petroleum ("BP");
7) Shell, an Anglo-Dutch joint venture.
Treat's background as President Carter's energy adviser played a key role. After nearly a year of hard work, the first Big Oil entered the NYMEX crude oil trading floor. However, it was not until five years later that all Seven Sisters became NYMEX members.
OPEC producers tried to boycott the crude oil futures market. However, as trading volume grew, they eventually gave in, first by Venezuela and then the oil producers in the Middle East.
Interestingly, the Middle Eastern oil producers started out by trading COMEX gold futures, probably as a hedge against oil prices. Gold has been a significant part in the Middle Eastern culture for long. As the main buyers of gold, the Arabs buy more gold when their pockets are filled with rising oil prices, and conversely, they sell gold when oil revenues fall and their ability to buy gold decreases.
With the participation of Big Oil and OPEC, coupled with an active crude oil options market, crude oil pricing power has shifted from the Middle East to NYMEX's trading floor by the end of the 1980s. WTI has also become a globally recognized benchmark for crude oil prices.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
How To Trade the Triangle Consolidation Pattern!Hey Traders today I wanted to take a step back and show new traders the proper way of entering the market when it's consolidating in a triangle. Triangles are very common in trading and know how to identify them on your charts is a great tool to add to your trading arnsenal. Triangles can lead to explosive moves in financial markets so lets dive in and break it down to a science of how to trade it.
Enjoy
Trade Well,
Clifford
Why we should review price action to see if History will RepeatStudying price action and reviewing should be a key part to everyones trading and will improve overall results. Many Stocks, Currency pairs, Commodities or Indexes have differing nuances and characteristics with regards to Price Action so it is worth doing the homework before entering a trade. Even though they all trade around a similar Price Action Framework, quickly looking for small repeating patterns can greatly improve the probability and conviction and help your trades in the long run.
This short video looks EQR.asx which is a share listed on the ASX. By reviewing the previous price action, we can see that the current setup is so far following the same path as a previous big winner....I will be watching to see if history does repeat!!
Hope you enjoy
Using Chat GPT to build pinescriptThis is a lot different to our normal video but I really wanted to show the @TradingView community how you can use AI to build indicators in @PineCoders
I thought it would be easier to do as a video idea than a stream.
So I hope you enjoy & don't forget to shout out to me when you try it for yourself, I am keen to see what you build!
All the best
Mayfair!
The Ten Fundamental Objectives of the Federal ReserveIntroduction
The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as "the Fed," was established in 1913 in response to a series of banking panics. As the central banking institution of the United States, it plays a crucial role in maintaining the stability and integrity of the nation's monetary and financial systems. This essay explores the ten fundamental objectives of the Federal Reserve, which include maintaining price stability, promoting full employment, and ensuring a stable financial system, among others.
1. Price Stability
The primary objective of the Federal Reserve is to maintain price stability, which refers to a low and stable rate of inflation. By managing inflation, the Fed helps to preserve the purchasing power of money, ensuring that consumers and businesses can make informed decisions regarding spending, saving, and investment.
2. Maximum Sustainable Employment
Another key objective of the Federal Reserve is to promote maximum sustainable employment, also known as full employment. This means providing enough job opportunities for all individuals who are willing and able to work, while minimizing the rate of unemployment. By promoting full employment, the Fed contributes to overall economic growth and well-being.
3. Moderate Long-Term Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve aims to maintain moderate long-term interest rates, which are essential for economic growth and stability. By controlling short-term interest rates, the Fed can indirectly influence long-term rates, thereby encouraging borrowing, investment, and consumption.
4. Financial System Stability
One of the most critical objectives of the Federal Reserve is ensuring the stability of the financial system, which involves monitoring and regulating financial institutions, as well as identifying and addressing potential risks. By maintaining a stable financial system, the Fed helps to prevent crises and protect the economy from shocks.
5. Efficient Payment and Settlement System
The Federal Reserve is responsible for managing the nation's payment and settlement systems, which include check clearing, electronic funds transfers, and automated clearinghouse operations. By providing these services efficiently and securely, the Fed ensures that financial transactions occur smoothly, promoting confidence in the banking system.
6. Consumer Protection
Another important objective of the Federal Reserve is to protect consumers by enforcing federal consumer protection laws and regulations. This includes monitoring financial institutions for compliance, addressing consumer complaints, and providing education and resources to help consumers make informed financial decisions.
7. Supervision and Regulation
The Federal Reserve plays a vital role in supervising and regulating financial institutions to ensure their safety, soundness, and compliance with laws and regulations. This oversight helps to maintain a stable and resilient financial system, while also protecting consumers and investors.
8. Community Development
The Federal Reserve is committed to promoting community development by supporting initiatives that address issues such as affordable housing, small business development, and workforce development. This objective aims to foster economic growth and improve the quality of life in communities across the country.
9. Economic Research and Analysis
The Federal Reserve conducts extensive research and analysis to better understand the U.S. economy, as well as the global economy. This research informs the Fed's monetary policy decisions and helps it to fulfill its other objectives, such as promoting maximum employment and maintaining stable prices.
10. International Financial Cooperation
Finally, the Federal Reserve cooperates with other central banks and international financial institutions to promote global economic stability and financial system resilience. This collaboration allows the Fed to share information, resources, and expertise, ultimately benefiting the U.S. economy.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve plays a pivotal role in the U.S. economy by pursuing ten fundamental objectives, which range from maintaining price stability to promoting international financial cooperation. By fulfilling these objectives, the Fed ensures the stability and growth of the U.S. economy, while also fostering a resilient and efficient global financial system.
Trade with care.
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How To Follow Market News Like a ProAs a member of TradingView, you have access to more than 100 news providers. Our excellent news providers cover every asset class. Learning how to manage market news is an important informational edge that takes time and practice - always know the latest stories about your favorite symbols and be in the know about what traders are talking about.
In this post, we want to share a few tips for managing your news flow. 🗞️🎯
Before we get started, let us remind everyone how we recently enhanced our news by giving our members access to one of the world's preeminent news organizations - Dow Jones Newswire including the Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch, Barron's, Dow Jones Commodity Trader, and more.
Where To Find News On TradingView 📰
To get started with news, first make sure you're logged into your account. Once you're logged in, there are several ways to access news. Let's take a look at each method.
- Symbol pages have dedicated news sections that cover that symbol in great detail. For example, here's every important story about Apple and here's the latest breaking news about Tesla . Go to any symbol page of your choice, click News, and start reading.
- Check out our global news flow page that brings all of our sources to one place. Once you've arrived, filter by the asset class of your choice.
- Our corporate news page brings insider buying & selling, company press releases, and official financial filings all to one page. As an equity trader or investor, this page will keep you updated about key events happening in the corporate world.
How To Find News On The Chart 📈
News can also be accessed directly from the chart. As everyone knows, breaking news can impact markets in a variety of ways. Open the chart and watch price, volume, and news all at once. This is an effective combination of tools that combines the biggest headlines with real trading activity. Here's how to get started:
- Open your watchlist, select a symbol, and then look for the latest news headline as demonstrated in the image below. Click the headline to open a dedicated news feed for that symbol. And just like that you'll have markets news and the chart open at once:
- Another way to add news to your chart is to open the Settings menu, click Events, and then check the box that says "Latest news." This box will display the latest market news directly on the chart you have open. Follow the instructions shown on the image below to get started.
Go Deeper With Specific News For Your Needs 🌐
Depending on your style of trading or desired asset class, there are additional news resources for you to harness. Check out the list below for more pages where market news can be found:
- Bond market news
- Futures market news
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PULLBACK TRADINGTrading on a pullback is one of the options for trading in Price Action patterns. Like trading on a breakout, this style implies the use of pending orders. Trading on a pullback is more popular than on a chart breakout. If Price Action signals are used correctly, it can bring more profit with less risks.
🔵 Characteristics of the strategy of trading on a pullback
This strategy, as well as all other trading strategies based on Price Action, is considered universal and multicurrency, suitable for any asset and timeframe. However, it is recommended to trade on liquid currency pairs, such as EURUSD or GBPUSD on hourly or four-hour charts. The daily D1 is also suitable for trading. When trading on a pullback, traders place limit orders (as opposed to a breakout, where stop orders are used).
🔵 The principle of trading on a pullback and the algorithm of placing orders
The basic idea of the strategy is that the price, before it goes in the necessary direction after the formation of the pattern, usually pulls back, and if you catch the moment trend continuation, you can enter the same trade on more favorable conditions, with a smaller stop-loss and larger take-profit.
Trading on a pullback is performed as follows:
1. A Price Action pattern appears on the chart. This can be a pattern of engulfing, a doji candle on a trend reversal, etc.;
2. At the opening of the next candle, a Limit pending order is placed (to buy, if an uptrend is expected, and to sell, if a downtrend is in progress). The order is placed approximately in the middle of the signal candle;
3. Stop Loss is set a few points beyond the extremum of the signal candlestick (below the minimum if trading to buy, above the maximum if trading to sell);
Take Profit is set at trader's discretion. As an alternative, you can multiply the value of a stop-loss by 3 or 4, or set the take profit at the next key level, so that the price is guaranteed to catch it when it reaches this level.
🔵 Example of pullback trading
As an example, we will consider trading on a pullback on the hourly chart of the EURUSD in detail. As an alternative, we will also consider the variant of opening a breakout order in this situation and compare the results.
Events have developed as follows:
1. After a bullish move, a bearish doji candle was formed, signaling at least a correction;
2. At the opening of the next candle a Sell Limit order was placed (in this case the order was opened at the market, since the price at that moment was at the level of the supposed pending order);
3. Stop Loss is set above the maximum of the signal candle, Take Profit - in the area of the nearest support level;
4. The stop loss ratio is approximately 1:2.5, which provides a positive mathematical expectation of the trade;
5. After 6 hours the deal closed in profit.
In this case both trades would be profitable, but profit on breakout of the support level would be almost twice less, and the stop/stop profit ratio would be 1,5:1 not in favor of take profit, which is considered inappropriate from the money management viewpoint.
🔵 Additional details of pullback trading
Despite the fact that, in the example above, trading on a pullback was more profitable than trading on a breakout, it cannot be argued that this style is absolutely better. There are drawbacks to trading on a pullback as well. Unlike trading on a breakout which can be applied to all possible Price Action patterns, limit trading is not possible in every situation. Due to this the number of signals and possible transactions is reduced, and therefore the potential profit will also be less. In spite of the fact that as a rule the take profit at breakthrough trading is less than at limit trading. As we have more trades during the same test period, trading on the breakout can bring more profit.
For example, the screenshot above shows the trend continuation pattern of an inside bar. When trading on the breakout, a pending order is placed above the maximum of the parent bullish candle which opens after several hours and the trend goes upwards, bringing profit to the trader. There are no reasons for the limit trade in this situation.
It is impossible to place a pending order in the middle of the inside bar, and there is no logical reason to place it in the middle of the mother candle.
It happens that the signal not to open a trade on a pullback on the limit order does not work, even when there are all the conditions for it. For example, during the formation of an engulfing pattern on the screen above placing a limit order in the middle of this pattern was quite logical.
However, the signal candle turned out to be too strong, the pullback movement has not reached the pending order placed and the trade was not opened. In the same situation when trading on the breakout the trade would have been opened on the next candle, and in a few hours the trader would have fixed the profit.
🔵 Conclusion
Trading by Price Action on a pullback has both advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, this style allows you to make more profits with less risk in the same situation, when trading on the pullback shows less attractive dynamics. On the other hand, not all price action patterns are suitable for this style, in addition even suitable signals sometimes do not work, leaving the trader without profit.
The choice of trading style largely depends on the trader's temperament. The pullback method suits the patient and conservative traders who are willing to wait for the signal for days and even weeks. As a result, such waiting will be rewarded with high profits on each of trades. More aggressive traders would be better suited to trading on the breakout which allows them to enter the market more often compensating the small profit and probable losses with the number of profitable trades.
Leveraged Share Conversion Calculcator Indicator coming soon! To be released this upcoming week :-).
Going over the functionality and setting up of my leveraged share conversion calculator indicator.
I will link it below upon its release.
This is the third and final reference indicator in my series, the other 2 being the Technical Dashboard and the P&L Indicator (I will link those below).
At this point, I will be going back over feedback to make improvements on all of the indicators while I wait for a stroke of ingenuity to realize again ;).
If you have feedback or technical problems with any of the indicators, please let me know in the comments but also if you can please include a chart image of any issue you are having, that would be very helpful.
Any recommendations, please leave in the comments below. I have received a couple that are on the agenda for implementation, its just a slow process :-).
Let me know your questions/comments and recommendations.
Safe trades everyone!
Get ahead of the Game of Crypto with Dow TheoryWelcome to @TradingView , this is @Vestinda! We're excited to share with you our insights on the Dow Jones Theory and how it can benefit cryptocurrency traders.
Dow Theory, also known as Dow Jones Theory, is a trading strategy developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s.
Charles Dow did not write any books during his lifetime, but he did co-found The Wall Street Journal and the Dow Jones & Company. He also wrote many editorials for The Wall Street Journal. Here is a quote from one of his editorials that is particularly insightful:
"The successful investor is usually an individual who is inherently interested in business problems."
Dow theory continues to dominate and is regarded as one of the most sophisticated contemporary studies on technical analysis even after 100 years.
What exactly is Dow Theory?
Charles H. Dow compared the stock market to the tides of the ocean in the Wall Street Journal on January 31, 1901.
"A person watching the tide come in and wanting to know the exact location of the high tide places a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it and finally recedes enough to show that the tide has turned." This method is effective for observing and predicting the flood tide of the stock market."
Dow believed that the current state of the stock market could be used to analyse the current state of the economy.
The stock market can provide valuable measures for understanding the reasons for high and low trends in the economy or individual stocks.
How Does the Dow Theory Work?
The Dow Theory is based on several fundamental tenets, which are outlined below:
1. The Averages Reflect Everything:
The market price takes into account every known or unknown factor that may impact both supply and demand. According to this observation, the market reflects all available information, even information that is not in the public domain. However, natural disasters such as droughts, cyclones, floods, or earthquakes cannot be considered.
Major Geopolitical Events are Already Priced In:
All significant geopolitical events, trade wars, domestic policies, elections, GDP growth, changes in interest rates, earning projections, or expectations are already priced in the market.
Unexpected Events Affect Short-Term Trends:
While unexpected events may occur, they usually only affect short-term trends, and the primary trend remains unaffected.
Overall, the Dow Theory emphasises the importance of analysing the primary trend of the market and understanding that all available information is already reflected in the market price.
2. The Market Has Three Trends:
The primary trend:
It can be as long as one year to several years and is the ‘main movement’ of the market. These movements are typically referred to as bull and bear markets. This primary uptrend is called as bullish on the other hand primary downtrend can be considered as bearish trends.
The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary uptrend or downtrend will end.
As you can see in the image above when a stock is moving in primary uptrend it makes new high followed by few lows not lower than the previous lows.
Similarly the same patterns follows when it is in primary downtrend.
The objective of Dow Theory is to utilize what we do know, not to make chaotic guess about what we don’t know. Through a set of guidelines from Dow Theory one can measure to identify the primary trend and stay with it.
The intermediate trend or secondary trend:
This trend can last between 3 weeks to several months. Secondary movements are reactionary in nature, think of them as corrections during bull market, or rallies & recoveries in the bear market.
In a bull market, a secondary trend is considered a correction. In a bear market, secondary trend are called reaction rallies.
So suppose if a stock during its primary uptrend made a high, it will retrace back to some points to make a low (known as intermediate trend or correction).
Likewise during an primary downtrend, a stock can make a high after falling for several months or years(known as bear market rallies).
The minor trend or daily fluctuations:
This trend is least reliable which can be lasting from several days to few hours. Dow theory suggests not to put much attention to these trends. As a Long-term investor it is just the part of corrections in secondary uptrend or downtrend rally.
This are just daily fluctuations happening in market on day to day basis. It constitutes of noise in market and perhaps be subject to manipulation.
Out of the three trends mentioned only primary and secondary trends are trustworthy. However, the study of daily price action can add valuable insight, if you look in context of the larger picture.
So when you are looking for daily price action of several days, or weeks try to evaluate bigger structure getting formed. By putting enough attention one can certainly benefit in short term rallies.
A few pieces of a structure are meaningless, yet at the same time, they are essential to complete the entire picture.
3.Major Trends Have Three Phases:
Dow significantly paid attention to the primary trends (major) in which he spotted three phases. These are Accumulation phase, Public participation phase and Distribution phase.
These phases are cyclic in nature and repeats over the time.
A) Accumulation phase:
This phase occurs when the market is in bearish trend, sentiments are negative with no hope for any upcoming uptrend. For example as we saw in Indian share market a steep low in mid cap stocks, making new lows every other day.
Most of the investors see them stay in this trend for unknown time period. However, this is the time when big investors, huge fund houses, institutional investors start accumulating them gradually.
This is known as smart money keeping their view for long term investment. Although you would see sellers in market still selling, they find the buyers easily.
B) Public participation phase:
At this phase the market have already absorbed the negativity with ‘smart money’ getting invested. This is the second stage of a primary bull market and is usually sees the largest advance in prices.
During this phase majority of public(retailers) also thinks to join in as the price is rapidly advancing. However most of them are left behind due to speed in rallies as well as the averages start heading higher.
If you are also a trader or investor you might have this experience and a regret of not able to participate with rally. It is a period followed by improved business conditions and increased valuations in stocks.
C) Distribution phase:
The third stage is the excess phase which eventually be turned to distribution phase. During the third and final stage, the public (retailers) gets fully involved in the market, as they get mesmerized by the bull market rally.
Some of them who felt left will still try to look for valuations and want to be part of the rally.
But this is the time when ‘smart money’ starts liquidating shares on every high. Whereas public will try to buy at this level absorbing all liquidating (sell-off) volumes made by big investors.
On contrary in the distribution phase, whenever the prices attempt to go higher, the smart money off loads their holdings.
This is the beginning of bear market, where sentiments will start turning negative, you will see more and more companies filing bankruptcy, change in economic growth etc.
During bear market the level of frustration rises among retail investors as they start loosing all hopes.
4.The Averages Must Confirm Each Other:
Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and Rail(transportation) Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation or continuation of a bull market.
Both the averages did not have to move simultaneously, but the quicker one followed another – the stronger the confirmation.
To put it differently, observe the image above, as you can see both the averages are in bull market, trending upward from Point A to C.
5. Volume Must Confirm the Trend:
Volume is a tool to know how many shares have been bought and sold in a given period of time. It helps in analysing the trends and patterns.
Now according to Dow theory, a stock must be in uptrend with high volume and low in corrections.
Volumes may not be an attractive piece of information but you should try to combine the volume data with resistance and support levels to get a clear picture.
6. Trend Is expected to Be Continued Until Definite Signals of Its Reversal:
Quite similar to Newton’s first law of motion which states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force.
In simple words an object will remain in their state of motion unless a external force acts to change the motion.
Likewise, the market will continue to move in a primary direction until a force, such as a change in business conditions, is strong enough to change the direction of this primary move. You can also see the signals for reversals when a trend is about to change.
7.Signals and Identification of Trends:
One of the major challenges faced while implementing Dow theory is the accurate identification of trend reversals. Remember, if you are following the dow theory one should be not only looking for overall market direction, but also the definite reversal signals.
One of the main skill used to identify trend reversals in Dow theory is peak and trough or high and low analysis. A peak is defined as the highest price of a market movement, while a trough is seen as the lowest price of a market movement.
Dow theory suggests that the market doesn’t move in a straight line but from highs (peaks) to lows (troughs), with the overall moves of the market trending in a direction.
An upward trend in Dow theory is a series of successively higher peaks and higher troughs. A downward trend is a series of successively lower peaks and lower troughs.
8. Manipulation In the Market:
According to Charles dow the manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. where as Intraday, or day to day trading and perhaps even the secondary movements could be vulnerable to manipulation.
These short movements, from a few hours to a few weeks, could be subject to manipulation by large institutions, speculators, breaking news or rumors.
There is possibility that speculators, specialists or anyone else involved in the markets could manipulate the prices in short run.
Individual shares could be manipulated for example the security rise up and then falls back and continues the primary trend. With this in mind one need to be aware of the situations while trading and investing.
However, it would be next to impossible to manipulate the market as a whole. The market is simply too big for any kind of manipulation to occur.
Why Dow Theory Is Not Infallible?
Dow Theory is not a sure-fire means of beating the market hence it is not something which is infallible or fault-less. Some of the criticism received about Dow Theory is that it is really not a theory.
Charles Dow's principles and theories, while developed for the stock market, can still be applied to crypto investing.
Here are a few ways his knowledge can be used:
Follow the trend: Dow's first principle is that the market moves in trends. In crypto investing, you can identify trends by looking at price charts and technical analysis. If the price of a particular cryptocurrency is in an uptrend, it may be a good time to consider buying. If it's in a downtrend, you may want to consider selling or waiting for a better entry point.
Consider market breadth: Dow's second principle is that the market's movements should be confirmed by market breadth. This means looking beyond just the price of one cryptocurrency and examining the overall health of the market. For example, if a particular cryptocurrency is in an uptrend but the majority of other cryptocurrencies are in a downtrend, it may not be a sustainable trend.
Use volume as a confirmation: Dow's third principle is that volume should confirm the trend. In crypto investing, volume can provide insight into the strength of a trend. For example, if the price of a cryptocurrency is increasing with high volume, it may indicate a strong uptrend. On the other hand, if the price is increasing with low volume, it may not be a sustainable trend.
Be aware of market cycles: Dow's fourth principle is that the market moves in cycles. This means that there will be periods of growth and periods of decline. In crypto investing, it's important to be aware of these cycles and adjust your strategy accordingly. For example, during a bull market, you may want to focus on buying and holding, while during a bear market, you may want to consider shorting or staying on the sidelines.
Overall, while the crypto market is different from the stock market, many of Dow's principles can still be applied to crypto investing to help you make more informed decisions.
In conclusion, Dow Theory, developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s, remains one of the most respected theories in financial market history.
The theory's primary tenets are based on the idea that the stock market reflects all available information, and there are three trends in the market: primary, intermediate, and minor.
The primary trend is the most important and can last several years, while the intermediate trend and minor trend are reactionary in nature.
Dow Theory provides an excellent framework for traders and investors to evaluate the current state of the economy, and it has remained relevant even after 100 years. Whether you are an intraday trader, a short-term trader, or a long-term investor, the knowledge of Dow Theory will undoubtedly help you develop various strategies for your investments.
So, in conclusion, Dow Theory is a respectful theory that has stood the test of time and continues to be an essential tool for anyone who trades or invests in the financial and crypto market.
Unleash Your Inner Trader — Read Story About Bulls and Bears That Will Change Your Mindset!
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How to use the 24-hour gold price chart for trading?
Gold is a precious metal trading derivative product originated in London, but it has now become popular worldwide. How to use the 24-hour gold price chart for trading?
In addition to its high leverage and high yield characteristics, the 24-hour trading time is also an important product highlight. The significant fluctuation of international gold prices presents a great opportunity for investors to profit if they can learn to trade according to the characteristics of its price chart.
1.Pay attention to the market trends of different market sessions
For spot gold investors, the 24-hour trading time can be roughly divided into the Asian, European, and American market sessions. Due to the influence of different fundamental factors in various regions, gold prices will show different trends in these market sessions.
However, the basic trends can be roughly divided into uptrend, downtrend, and sideways trend. Investors should adopt different response strategies to different market trends.
For example, in the American market session, the international gold price is often in a volatile stage, and the ample market momentum makes the probability of one-way up or down movement higher. When investors find a sign of an uptrend, such as a small-bodied "red three soldiers" pattern appearing in the 15-minute chart, they can enter long positions during the time when the price is pulling back on the minute chart. Conversely, when the price rises and prepares for a correction, investors should adopt a strategy of selling on the rallies.
As for the Asian market session, since the price mostly corrects yesterday's trend, the weakening momentum often keeps the gold price in a sideways trend. In the narrow fluctuation range, investors can flexibly trade by using the support and resistance levels of the box.
2.Using Fibonacci time zones to calculate turning points
Fibonacci Time Zones are evolved from the Fibonacci sequence, which is a set of vertical lines drawn using Fibonacci time intervals of 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, etc. The change in the spot gold price is more likely to occur near these lines, and it is possible to achieve a reversal from one trend to another. When drawing the lines, investors should pay attention to the following:
1. Start from the highest or lowest point of recent market trends.
2. The first candle after the Fibonacci line is crucial. It generally determines the trend of the following period. If it is a bearish candle, the period ahead may be dominated by a decline. If it is a bullish candle, the period ahead may be dominated by an increase.
3. Generally, the longer the analysis period used to draw the lines, the higher the reliability. However, in practice, if investors find that the rise and fall of gold prices during a certain period are in line with the periodicity, the probability of this pattern continuing is also very high.
That's all for the techniques of investing in gold. I will frequently share more investment techniques with you in the future! Stay tuned.
TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1!
3 Tips Can Help You Boost Your Trading Whether we're tinkering with our demo accounts or playing with a few dollars in our live accounts, it's never been far from our minds that our accounts will go big in the future.
Unfortunately, many traders struggle with taking the next step and trading larger positions.
Some find it difficult to risk losing the small profits they've worked hard for over the last few months, while others simply can't stomach risking larger positions.
Taking on more risk has its benefits. But be cautious...!!!
While increasing your risk can result in bigger wins, it can also magnify your losses and wipe out your entire account.
To help you avoid the pitfalls of big trading, I'm sharing three simple tips for increasing your risk:
📌 1. Be sure that you are in the green zone.
Don't even consider increasing your risk if you're not consistently profitable with small trades.
If you can't trade small positions successfully, what makes you think you'll be able to trade larger ones?
If you believe you are prepared but your account is still in the red, prioritize getting it back into the black. That's why demo and small accounts exist.
Continue to trade small positions until your performance justifies trading larger ones. After all, you don't want to compound your losses by taking larger positions.
📌 2. Go slowly and steadily.
Just as you wouldn't rush into fighting elite world champions after your first boxing lesson, you shouldn't rush into increasing your trading size.
Do you want to bite off more than you can chew?
The key to becoming comfortable with taking a larger risk is to gradually increase the size of your positions.
If you're not completely comfortable with the level of risk you're taking, it will most likely be reflected in your account balance.
Rather than making a big jump, aim for small, steady increases. It will have a less negative impact on your trading mindset and will allow you to adjust to larger risks more smoothly.
📌 3. Pay attention to percentages rather than dollar amounts.
I'll reveal a little trading secret that will assist you in adjusting to larger trading sizes:
Concentrate on percentages rather than dollar figures.
A 1% risk on a $10,000 account is the same as a $100 risk. Risking 1% on a $100,000 account, on the other hand, is equivalent to risking $1,000. You can trade larger by risking the same percentage on a larger account.
When you focus on percentages, it also helps to put profits and losses into proper perspective.
Losing 1% on a $100,000 account will feel very similar to losing 1% on a $10,000 account. However, when expressed in raw dollar terms ($1,000 versus $100), it is much more difficult to swallow.
If you take it slow and steady, and focus on percentages rather than dollar amounts, you should be able to smoothly transition to trading larger trading positions. Above all, don't increase your risk if you're not already consistently profitable trading small.
Thanks for Your attention!
Always yours Kateryna💙💛
Path to AltseasonHello traders, today we will talk about Path to Altseason
BASIC INFO
Altcoin season, or ‘Altseason’, is the home of face-melting gains & high volatility. It’s pretty much Christmas for crypto traders.
Within a brief period (usually a few weeks or months), the prices of altcoins (all coins besides Bitcoin) skyrocket as investors move their money out of Bitcoin and into other cryptocurrencies.
Once prices start to rise, FOMO investment kicks in, causing a snowball effect which drives altcoin prices even higher to astronomical (and often overvalued) heights for a short period of time.
Many investors can make the majority of their profits for the year during an Altseason if they are able to sell their altcoins before Alts
Bitcoins & Altseason
Put simply, Altseason begins when altcoins start to outperform Bitcoin (when prices of alts rise in comparison to Bitcoin), and Altseason ends when Bitcoin outperforms altcoins.
However, this does not mean that when Bitcoin’s price goes down alts automatically go up. In fact, historically, Bitcoin has tended to lift altcoins when it rises and also bring them down after a major crash, with the price of Bitcoin and altcoins often being closely correlated. Previous bull markets have generally seen Bitcoin enjoy an uptrend before altcoins join the wave and head for the moon.
Key Takeaways
An altcoin is simply any other cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin. They are usually more volatile than Bitcoin, offering high-risk high-reward opportunities.
When Bitcoin dominance (the amount of the total crypto market share held in Bitcoin) declines rapidly, it leads to an increase of investments in Altcoins, which causes an Altseason.
Predicting Altseason is not an exact science, and it is not something that’s officially announced at a certain time or date.
An Altseason can occur several times a year and they often happen within a relatively short period of time.
For maximum gains it’s crucial to sell your altcoins before Altseason is over. Alt’s prices drop just as quickly as they rose.
There have been many Altseasons in the last decade, with all of them beginning right after Bitcoin dominance declined.
The sharper the decline in BTC dominance the bigger the Altseason.
How to take advantage of Altseason?
The key to taking advantage of Altseason is to have your money in altcoins before Altseason begins, or just as it is beginning. Pay close attention as prices begin to rise, and make sure you sell out from most of your positions before Altseason ends and prices fall as quickly as they rose – don’t worry about trying to sell at the very peak, just take profits on the way up and be ready for things to end as quickly as they begun!
Top tips for navigating Altseason
Altseason is often the most lucrative time during a crypto market cycle, however, it is also the most volatile time. As the potential for gains rises so does your risk. Here are some tips to keep in mind during an Altseason:
Altseason is both an exciting and emotional time. If you’re a new investor, proceed with caution. Separating your investment decisions from your emotions is a tried-and-tested strategy for mitigating risk and maximising profits.
Having a solid exit strategy prepared will decrease the chances of you HODLing your alts through the peak only to see them fall when Altseason comes to an end.
Depending on your commitment level, spreading yourself too thin by investing in lots of altcoins can be confusing and difficult to keep track of. A bit of diversification is always good but don’t invest in more coins than you can keep track of!
Accept that you cannot be involved in every pumping altcoin. Choose your best picks and stay up to date on the relevant news and market movements.
Be sure to take profits on the way up to ensure that you realise most of your gains before prices come back down again. If you get a sizeable gain, you may want to reduce your position before the inevitable price correction!
Using your profits from Altseason to reinvest into Bitcoin while it is at a good price (and vice versa) is a popular strategy.
Risk management is the best way to make the most out of Altseason, given the sheer number of investment opportunities that will arise. Never risk so much that you won’t be able to keep playing – there can be multiple Altseasons in a year!
The key to taking advantage of Altseason is to have your money in altcoins before Altseason begins, or just as it is beginning. Pay close attention as prices begin to rise, and make sure you sell out from most of your positions before Altseason ends and prices fall as quickly as they rose – don’t worry about trying to sell at the very peak, just take profits on the way up and be ready for things to end as quickly as they begun!
The Altcoin Season Index is a helpful (but not exact) tool to see where we are in relation to Altseason. According to the Altcoin Season Index, if 75% of the Top 50 altcoins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days), it is Altcoin Season.
They also give an indication of where we are in terms of an Altcoin Month or Year, with an easy to interpret graph that shows the general long-term trends of previous Altseasons.
Altcoin season is not something that’s officially announced at a certain time or date. Nobody knows for sure when it’s upon us, nor when it will end. All we have are certain indicators that can help us know if we have entered Altseason.
Why does Altseason see such huge gains?
FOMO and the snowball effect play a big part. Part of the reason Altseason sees such a dramatic rise in prices is because many new investors see prices beginning to rise, and immediately invest out of FOMO.
This creates a snowball effect which pushes prices higher and higher until they are overvalued and in a bubble. When people realise they are riding a precarious rollercoaster that may crash at any moment, they begin to sell. This causes panic which leads to more mass selling and the price plummeting back down to earth, bringing Altseason to an abrupt end.
When is the top of Altseason/the bull market?
The million-dollar question that no-one can really answer. While crypto markets follow cycles which can be predicted based on past market movements, every bull run is different and it is incredibly difficult predict the very top of Altseason, or any bull run for that matter.
Given the fact that no-one really knows exactly when the top of the bull run or Altseason will be, it is wise to take profits along the way as your portfolio gains value. Dollar-cost-average selling (DCA) can be useful to minimise the impact of the market’s volatility while you invest.
If Bitcoin’s price goes up will altcoins also go up?
Generally, yes. The price of most altcoins is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin. It is Bitcoin dominance, however, that indicates when Altseason is beginning.
Why are altcoins dependent on Bitcoin?
A major reason that altcoin’s and Bitcoin’s prices are so highly correlated is that many altcoins are purchased with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is often bought before the purchase of an altcoin, pushing the price of both coins up.
Similarly, if someone wants to cash out on an altcoin, many exchanges require you to first sell that altcoin for Bitcoin, and then sell the Bitcoin for cash, which pushes both prices down at the same time.
Another reason the prices are highly correlated is simply because they’re in the same asset class and things that are in the same asset class tend to go up and down together.
What to look out for to predict an Altseason
The most important thing would be a decrease in Bitcoin dominance, usually occurring after an exponential increase and subsequent consolidation. Additionally, relative trade volume, social media activity, mainstream interest, new coin listings and the volume of news articles published from crypto projects seem to be good indicators of when Altseason might be approaching.
What is Ethereum’s relationship to Altseason?
Ethereum, seen as the second most trusted cryptocurrency and the silver to Bitcoin’s gold, is at the heart of the altcoin market. The start of bullish moves for Ethereum is often the start of Altseason, especially with so many alts and DeFi projects being built on top of the Ethereum Blockchain.
Generally, after Bitcoin rallies upwards and consolidates, Ether’s price will also need to break out before altcoins can see a sizable rally.
Can altcoins lift Bitcoin?
Not really. Bitcoin rarely gets boosted by altcoins.
Generally, once altcoins have pumped and claimed dominance from Bitcoin, the steps in to take back the bulk of the crypto market share, marking the end of Altseason.
What is an example of Bitcoin Dominance influencing Altseason?
On December 9, 2017, Bitcoin Dominance had gone from 69% to 37% in the space of just 35 days (which means it went from owning 69% of the total crypto market share to 37% in just over a month).
Looking at the Altcoin market cap chart, December 9 coincides exactly with the beginning of the largest Altseason that crypto had ever seen. The sharper the decline in Bitcoin Dominance, the bigger the spike in Alts.
History also repeated itself on March 30, 2018 when a sharp decline in Bitcoin Dominance from 50 to 38 in 40 days led to a significant increase in the Altcoins market cap.
What have previous Altseasons and bull runs taught us?
Previous bull runs and Altseasons suggest that larger-cap altcoins (starting with Ethereum) pump before smaller-cap altcoins begin moving up. This usually happens after Bitcoin has had a big move up, followed by some sideways movement, causing investors to seek gains in altcoins, thus decreasing Bitcoin dominance and starting the party that is Altseason.
IMPORTANT
BTC Rises - Altcoins Not Rising
BTC drops - Altcoins Super Drop
The scenario is confirming this - Be sure to survive before Altseason arrives
Never stop learning
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
Five Reasons and Six Ways to Invest in Gold"Gold is money. Everything else is credit.", said John Pierpont Morgan. When borrowers default, markets collapse and banks run into crisis, gold prices skyrocket. Gold is trading at a 12-month high on March 18th.
Gold has been valued for thousands of years. Gold has unique properties. It has been enchanting women and men since humans set foot on the planet.
Polycrisis. That aptly describes the current times. The US regional bank crisis haunts markets. Credit Suisse - the bank to the wealthiest was so frail that Swiss National Bank had to step in to provide liquidity backstop. Regulators worked over the weekend to broker an acquisition by UBS to prevent a banking crisis from spreading. Inflation is raging hot at levels unseen in 40+ years. Compounding Chair Powell's quagmire, the US Fed has been forced to switch from QT to QE by providing support to its regional banks from collapsing under crisis of confidence. Geo-politics remains tricky.
In times of crisis, investors seek flight to safety. Safest of all assets since civilisation began has been gold.
This educational piece provides an overview of (a) physical gold market dynamics, (b) largest holders of gold reserves, and (c) gold price behaviour against other asset classes. It also describes five primary reasons for investing in gold, contrasts six methods of doing so, and highlights the downsides of holding gold.
PHYSICAL GOLD DYNAMICS
Gold performs multiple functions. It is a currency to some. Store of wealth to others. It is an industrial metal used in consumer electronics. The rich love gold in clothing and food.
A bird's eye view of physical gold can be summarily described in three parts:
1. Consumers : Gold is used in consumer electronics due to its high conductivity and low corrosive properties. Gold used as industrial metal represents 6%-8% of total demand. Unsurprisingly, >50% of global gold demand is for jewellery. Jewellery is a multi-tasker. It meets aesthetic goals, serves as a status symbol while also being a form of investment.
2. Gold Reserves : Central banks hold gold as reserves. They are the most significant holders of gold. The haven nature of gold compels central banks to increase holdings during economic uncertainty, high inflation, or currency devaluation. Central Banks added >382 tonnes to their reserves in 2022.
3. Producers : Gold mining is a cyclical industry. Mining output has been in decline over the past decade as major gold producers shift to mining minerals and other metals like copper with the proliferation of lithium-ion batteries in EVs. Gold mining took a huge output hit during the pandemic and may not recover any time soon as capital expenditure into new gold mines is limited.
GOLD RESERVES - THE MOVERS AND SHAKERS
According to the World Gold Council, as of end 2022, central banks in Western European (11.8k tons) have the largest gold reserves followed by North Americans (8.1k tons), Central & Eastern Europeans (3.5k tons), and East Asians (3.4k tons).
Last year, central banks of Turkey, China, Egypt, Qatar, and Uzbekistan were the largest buyers of gold.
FIVE REASONS WHY GOLD SHOULD BE IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS
Gold is a resilient store of wealth, provides meaningful portfolio diversification, has limited price volatility, extends benefits of hedge against inflation & currency debasement, and is limited in supply.
1. Resilient Store of Wealth
Gold outperforms equities during periods of economic instability. Due to its material properties and scarcity, it can even become more valuable during such periods as investors seek shelter in classic risk-off assets such as gold.
2. Portfolio Diversification
Gold can have both positive and negative correlation with other asset classes during different periods. This makes it an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio.
3. Limited Volatility
Due to its large market size and diverse supply origins, gold is less volatile than equities and other asset classes making it a safer asset class for investors.
4. Inflation Hedge
Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge. Which means that it can maintain its value or appreciate during periods of high inflation due to its scarcity and safety.
However, in some cases monetary policy changes like interest rate hikes may make gold a less attractive investment compared to treasury yields during inflationary periods.
5. Limited in supply
Gold is a finite resource, that too, one of the rarest precious metals in the world. Moreover, more than 200,000 tonnes of gold have already been dug up.
This represents more than half of the total reserves. The gold that is yet to be mined is much more difficult to extract economically.
Scarcity creates rarity, which in turn drives the value of the existing gold higher.
Many governments, banks, and people also use gold as a long-term investment, which means a huge portion of the gold supply is taken out of circulation, shrinking available supply even more.
SIX WAYS OF INVESTING IN GOLD
There are multiple ways of investing in gold. Six primary ones are:
1. Physical Gold : Gold can be bought and stored in the form of jewellery or gold bars. Costs of storage, insurance and making charges can be substantial and also inconvenient. Investing in physical gold is not optimal for reasons of poor convenience and higher transaction costs.
2. Gold ETF : Exposure to gold can also be acquired through buying exchange traded funds (ETF) backed by physical gold. There are multiple ETFs that track physical gold prices. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was the pioneer and began trading in 2004. It has an expense ratio of 0.4% and tracks gold bullion prices. GLD holds both physical gold bullion and cash.
GLD provides a liquid lower-cost method to buy and hold gold. Gold can be bought and sold during the trading day at market price. Investors must pay heed to taxation as gains from ETFs in some jurisdictions can be treated differently compared to other forms of gold.
3. Gold Futures : CME’s COMEX Gold futures is the world’s most liquid derivatives which enables capital efficient exposure to Gold. With round the clock liquidity, tight bid-ask spread and benefits of a cleared contract, investing through COMEX Gold futures is widely popular.
Each lot of COMEX Gold Futures provides exposure to 100 oz of Gold. Enabling affordable access to investors and to facilitate accurate granular hedging, CME also offers Micro Gold Futures. Each lot of Micro Gold contract provides exposure to 10 oz of Gold.
4. Gold Options : CME also offers options on Gold Futures. Gold options is a useful investing and hedging tool. Using options, investors can lock in unlimited upside potential of price moves while limiting the adverse impact of downside price moves.
5. Shares of Gold Producers : Gold mining is an international business. Gold is mined on every continent except Antarctica. Top gold miners include Newmont (USA), Barrick (Canada), Anglogold Ashanti (South Africa), Kinross (Canada), Gold Fields (South Africa), Newcrest (Australia), Agnica Eagle (Canada), Polyus (Russia), Polymetal (Russia), and Harmony (South Africa).
As is evident from the chart above, investing in gold miners for exposure to gold is a poor proxy as most of them have underperformed relative to gold prices. Furthermore, FX exposures must be hedged separately for some stocks which trade in emerging markets. In summary, securing gold exposure through miners is not optimal relative to other alternatives.
6. Gold CFDs : CFDs also known as contract for differences allows for synthetic access to the price of spot gold. These CFDs are OTC derivatives contracts which carry non-trivial counterparty risk with investors being exposed to the credit risk of the CFD provider.
The table below summarises the merits of various gold investment instruments across key investment attributes.
GOLD TOO HAS ITS DOWNSIDES
Gold is a non-yielding asset. Shares of profitable companies pay dividends. Holding debt earns interest. Real estate delivers rents. But gold provides zero yield.
For every problem, innovation in markets provides a solution. In a future paper, Mint Finance will demonstrate how gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset.
Rising interest rates are headwinds to gold. As rates on treasury, bonds and deposits rise, investors rotate their money out of gold and into yield generating assets.
Not only is gold non-yielding, but the returns also fade into insignificance relative to gains from innovation. In times of crisis, gold is a great hedge. However, while positioning portfolios for the long term, investors must astutely balance between safety versus growth.
GOLD RETURNS IN RELATION TO OTHER ASSET CLASSES
1. US Equities and Emerging Markets
Gold outperforms equities during periods of crisis. During equity bull runs, gold underperforms equities. Cumulatively, over the last 20 years, Gold has outperformed Dow Jones, S&P 500, and MSCI Emerging Markets. Only Nasdaq, which represents tech, innovation and growth has surpassed gold returns.
2. Treasuries with 2-Year and 10-Year Maturities
Unsurprisingly, when sovereign risks rise and treasury yields fall to zero, gold shines. Between two non-yielding assets, investors prefer to take shelter in gold as a preferred haven. However, when rates rise, investors rotate out of gold and into treasuries.
3. Crude Oil, Copper, and Silver
Over the last two decades, Gold has outperformed crude oil, copper, and silver.
4. Dollar Index, Bitcoin and Ethereum
While US Dollar and gold are both global reserves, gold has outperformed the Dollar Index which is the value of the USD against a basket of six international currencies.
However, relative to bitcoin and ethereum, gold pales into insignificance. Bitcoin is perceived as millennial gold and ethereum is the millennial oil. Both assets have obliterated gold in terms of price returns.
5. Major Currencies
Over the last 3 years, as markets emerged out of the pandemic, gold has outperformed all the major currencies. Yen, under the influence of Governor Kuroda’s liberal QE program, has depreciated 63% against gold.
Indian Rupee has deflated 47% while Euro and Sterling have shed 38% and 32% against gold.
The US Dollar, Chinese Renminbi, and Aussie Dollar have depreciated 31%, 29% and 20% against gold, respectively.
Key Takeaways
Gold is money. Everything else is credit. Gold glows in crisis. It is a knight in shining armour for investors. Gold is the only asset which exhibits negative correlation.
These are times of polycrisis. As investors seek flight to safety from banks even, gold is the safest among the few remaining alternatives.
Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable diversification within a portfolio, exhibits much lower volatility relative to equities, and serves as an inflation hedge albeit with less than a perfect record.
Clients can invest in gold in multiple ways. Gold futures is the most convenient and optimal among the six alternatives.
Gold has its downsides. It is a non-yielding asset and performs dismally against innovation and growth.
Except for Nasdaq, bitcoin and ethereum, gold has outperformed currency majors, equity indices, US treasury, and commodities.
In a future paper, Mint Finance will explore ways in which gold can be transformed into a yield generating asset.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
Automatically identify chart patterns using built-in indicatorsHey everyone! 👋
⚠️ Before we get started, please know the information about expected price targets provided by Auto Chart Patterns isn't a recommendation for what you should personally do. Do not take this data as investment advice. It should only be used for education and research. As with any trade, always look first and then leap. Read more in the Terms of Use .
That being said, let's get into it.
This chart showcases a few of the Automatic Chart Patterns indicators recently announced in this blog post . If you are a technical trader who relies on chart patterns to make trading decisions and hold a Premium TradingView plan, check them out. They automatically identify these popular technical setups:
Bearish and Bullish Flags
Double Bottom
Double Top
Elliot Wave
Head and Shoulders
Inverse Head and Shoulders
Bearish and Bullish Pennants
Rectangles
Triangles
Triple Bottom
Triple Top
Falling and Rising Wedges
You can add the indicators to your chart from the "Indicators, Metrics & Strategies" search window by selecting "Patterns" from the "Technicals" tab in the left pane and choosing an indicator from the list:
Once you have selected a chart pattern, the indicator will automatically draw it on the chart for you when it detects the pattern.
The chart pattern indicators are easy to use and customize. You can alter the pattern detection criteria and visible attributes like color, line thickness, and style of the lines.
We hope you enjoy these new indicators.
— Team TradingView ❤️
The Role of ChatGPT in Algorithmic TradingThe Role of ChatGPT in Algorithmic Trading
1. Introduction
In recent years, algorithmic trading has become an increasingly important aspect of the financial markets. Algorithmic trading involves using computer programs to execute trades based on predetermined rules and algorithms, with the goal of maximizing returns and minimizing risk. The use of algorithms allows traders to make rapid, data-driven decisions and respond to market conditions faster than traditional human traders.
Natural language processing (NLP) is a field of computer science that focuses on the interactions between computers and human language. In the context of algorithmic trading, NLP techniques are used to analyze vast amounts of financial news, social media, and other sources of information to identify potential trading opportunities. By analyzing this data, traders can make informed decisions and gain a competitive edge in the market.
One of the key tools used in NLP for algorithmic trading is ChatGPT, a large language model trained by OpenAI. ChatGPT is a powerful tool that can analyze vast amounts of text data and generate human-like responses. Its capabilities include natural language understanding, machine translation, text summarization, and text completion.
With its ability to analyze and understand large amounts of text data, ChatGPT is an essential tool for traders looking to gain a competitive edge in the market. For example, ChatGPT can be used to analyze financial news articles and social media posts to identify companies that are likely to experience a significant change in their stock price. By analyzing the sentiment of these articles and posts, ChatGPT can determine whether there is a positive or negative outlook for a particular company, which can be used to inform trading decisions.
In addition to sentiment analysis, ChatGPT can also be used to generate summaries of news articles, which can save traders valuable time and allow them to quickly digest important information. ChatGPT can also be used to generate text responses to customer inquiries, freeing up traders to focus on more important tasks.
Overall, the use of NLP and ChatGPT in algorithmic trading is becoming increasingly important. As the amount of data available to traders continues to grow, the ability to quickly and accurately analyze that data will become essential for achieving success in the market. With its powerful NLP capabilities, ChatGPT is poised to play a significant role in the future of algorithmic trading.
2. NLP Techniques for Algorithmic Trading
Natural language processing (NLP) is an essential tool for algorithmic trading, enabling traders to quickly and accurately analyze large volumes of text data. In this section, we'll explore some of the key NLP techniques used in algorithmic trading, including analysis of financial news and social media, sentiment analysis, and identification of potential trading opportunities.
One of the most powerful applications of NLP in algorithmic trading is the analysis of financial news and social media. By analyzing news articles and social media posts, traders can gain insight into the market sentiment and identify emerging trends or potential trading opportunities. For example, if a large number of news articles and social media posts are discussing a particular company, it may be an indication that the company is about to experience a significant change in its stock price.
Sentiment analysis is another important NLP technique in algorithmic trading. Sentiment analysis involves using NLP algorithms to determine the emotional tone of a particular piece of text. By analyzing the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other sources of information, traders can gain insight into the market sentiment towards a particular company or industry. This information can then be used to inform trading decisions.
Identification of potential trading opportunities using NLP is another key application of this technology. By analyzing large volumes of data, including news articles, social media posts, and other sources of information, traders can identify emerging trends or potential trading opportunities. For example, by analyzing news articles and social media posts, traders may identify a new technology that is rapidly gaining popularity, indicating a potential investment opportunity.
Overall, the use of NLP techniques in algorithmic trading is becoming increasingly important. With the amount of data available to traders continuing to grow, the ability to quickly and accurately analyze that data will be essential for achieving success in the market. NLP techniques, including the analysis of financial news and social media, sentiment analysis, and identification of potential trading opportunities, are powerful tools that can help traders gain a competitive edge and achieve success in the market.
3. Predictive Models with ChatGPT
Predictive models are an essential tool for algorithmic trading, enabling traders to identify patterns and predict future market trends. In this section, we'll explore how ChatGPT can be used to develop predictive models and the advantages of using this technology.
At its core, predictive modeling involves using historical data to identify patterns and predict future trends. This process involves analyzing large volumes of data to identify patterns and trends that can be used to inform trading decisions. With the increasing amount of data available to traders, the ability to quickly and accurately analyze that data is becoming essential for achieving success in the market.
ChatGPT is a powerful tool that can be used to analyze large datasets and identify patterns that may be missed by other analytical tools. With its ability to understand natural language, ChatGPT can analyze vast amounts of financial news, social media, and other sources of information to identify patterns and trends. This information can then be used to develop predictive models that can be used to inform trading decisions.
One of the key advantages of using ChatGPT in developing predictive models is its ability to understand the context of the data it is analyzing. Unlike other analytical tools, which may only be able to identify patterns based on simple statistical analysis, ChatGPT can analyze text data to understand the context and nuances of the information being analyzed. This allows traders to identify patterns and trends that may not be immediately apparent using other analytical tools.
Another advantage of using ChatGPT in developing predictive models is its ability to learn from new data. As more data becomes available, ChatGPT can be trained to recognize new patterns and trends, improving the accuracy of its predictions over time.
4. Machine Learning with ChatGPT
Machine learning is a critical component of algorithmic trading, allowing traders to develop sophisticated models that can identify patterns and make real-time trading decisions. In this section, we'll explore how ChatGPT can be used in machine learning models for algorithmic trading, the advantages of using this technology, and some examples of its use.
Machine learning involves using algorithms to analyze large amounts of data, identify patterns, and make predictions. This process involves training the algorithm on historical data to recognize patterns that can be used to inform trading decisions. With the increasing amount of data available to traders, the ability to quickly and accurately analyze that data is becoming essential for achieving success in the market.
ChatGPT can be used in machine learning models to analyze text data and make real-time trading decisions based on that data. For example, ChatGPT can be used to analyze financial news and social media to identify patterns that may not be immediately apparent to other analytical tools. This information can then be used to inform machine learning models that make real-time trading decisions.
One of the key advantages of using ChatGPT in machine learning models for algorithmic trading is its ability to understand natural language. Unlike other analytical tools, which may only be able to analyze structured data, ChatGPT can analyze unstructured data such as news articles and social media posts. This ability to understand the context of the data being analyzed is essential for developing accurate machine learning models.
Another advantage of using ChatGPT in machine learning models is its ability to learn from new data in real-time. As more data becomes available, ChatGPT can be trained to recognize new patterns and trends, improving the accuracy of its predictions over time. This ability to adapt to changing market conditions is essential for achieving success in the algorithmic trading market.
There are several examples of machine learning models that use ChatGPT in algorithmic trading. For example, ChatGPT can be used to analyze financial news to identify patterns and inform machine learning models that make real-time trading decisions. ChatGPT can also be used to analyze social media sentiment to inform trading decisions based on public perception of a particular stock or market.
5. Limitations and Future Directions
While ChatGPT and NLP techniques have a lot of potential in algorithmic trading, there are also limitations to their use. In this section, we'll discuss some of the challenges associated with using ChatGPT and NLP in algorithmic trading, as well as potential future directions for these technologies.
One of the main limitations of using ChatGPT and NLP in algorithmic trading is the potential for bias in the data being analyzed. NLP techniques rely on training data to identify patterns and make predictions, but if that data is biased in some way, it can lead to inaccurate predictions. For example, if a machine learning model is trained on historical data that reflects biased trading practices, it may perpetuate those biases in future trading decisions.
Another limitation of using ChatGPT and NLP in algorithmic trading is the potential for the model to be fooled by fake or misleading information. As we've seen in recent years, social media platforms can be manipulated by bad actors to spread false information or manipulate public sentiment. If ChatGPT is trained on this misleading information, it can lead to inaccurate predictions and trading decisions.
Despite these limitations, there are several potential future directions for ChatGPT and NLP in algorithmic trading. One of these is the development of more sophisticated machine learning models that can better handle unstructured data. While ChatGPT has shown promise in this area, there is still much work to be done to improve the accuracy of these models.
Another potential future direction for ChatGPT and NLP in algorithmic trading is the use of natural language generation (NLG) to create more sophisticated trading strategies. NLG involves using machine learning to generate human-like language that can be used to describe trading strategies and other complex financial concepts. This can help traders better understand the decisions being made by their machine learning models and make more informed decisions.
In conclusion, while ChatGPT and NLP techniques have a lot of potential in algorithmic trading, there are also limitations to their use. By addressing these limitations and exploring new directions for these technologies, we can continue to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of algorithmic trading models. As the amount of data available to traders continues to grow, the importance of these technologies in the trading industry will only continue to increase.
6. Conclusion
In conclusion, ChatGPT and natural language processing techniques have become increasingly important in algorithmic trading. By analyzing large amounts of unstructured data from sources such as financial news and social media, ChatGPT can help identify potential trading opportunities and provide valuable insights to traders.
One of the key advantages of using ChatGPT in algorithmic trading is its ability to analyze and understand human language. By analyzing sentiment and other linguistic patterns, ChatGPT can provide valuable insights into public opinion and market trends, which can be used to inform trading decisions.
Another advantage of ChatGPT in algorithmic trading is its ability to analyze large datasets and identify patterns that may not be immediately apparent to human traders. By using machine learning models to analyze historical data, ChatGPT can identify trends and make predictions that can help traders make more informed decisions.
Looking to the future, it's likely that ChatGPT and other NLP techniques will continue to play a significant role in algorithmic trading. As the amount of data available to traders continues to grow, the importance of these technologies in the trading industry will only continue to increase.
However, there are also potential challenges and limitations associated with using ChatGPT and NLP in algorithmic trading. It's important to be aware of these limitations and to work to address them in order to ensure that these technologies are used in a responsible and effective way.
Overall, the use of ChatGPT in algorithmic trading represents an exciting development in the field of finance. By using machine learning and natural language processing techniques to analyze large amounts of data, traders can gain new insights and make more informed decisions. With continued research and development, the potential applications of ChatGPT and other NLP techniques in algorithmic trading are sure to grow and evolve in the years to come.
Why Trading Should be like Watching Paint DryIt has to be said.
If you want excitement, take $10,000 and go to Las Vegas for a day.
Trading should not bring about the same level of excitement.
I’m not saying, the entire process should be boring.
In life and with the careers you choose, you have to love what you do.
You have to keep the reward and vison in your mind, to drive you each morning.
And you need to have the discipline and integration to follow your plan each day.
So, should trading be boring? Um, yes and no.
Let’s start with where trading should be exciting and fun.
When Trading is a Thrill
This is where most people stay. They don’t take the necessary steps to open a trading account, fund it and grow their portfolios.
Instead, they stay in a feel safe and in control of their non-growing finances.
I still have members who’ve followed me for 10 years, and haven’t taken ONE single trade.
You need to jump out and take action.
The thrill of trading should be before the execution takes place.
This includes:
Analysing the markets
Optimising your strategies
Searching for high probability trades
Reading up on new trading developments and fundamentals
Monitoring your results and working on your statistics
Finding new markets and instruments to trade and add to your strategy
This part is an absolute blast. And requires no risk and no waiting.
But then, when you do find your trade line up and put in your trading levels and click buy / sell… Then…
Trading needs to be like watching paint dry or grass grow
Once you have taken your trade, set your entry, stop loss and take profit levels – you’ve done your job.
You now need to let it go and let the market to take over.
Don’t interfere…
Don’t get excited when it’s in the money.
Don’t fear when it’s going against you.
Don’t watch every tick.
It will drive you insane.
Just leave it alone.
It should be boring to even see what your trade is doing, because it’s out of your control.
If it hits your stop loss – cool… You’ve got your risk management in play.
If it hits your take profit – cool… You’ve got your reward management in play.
If you have rules to adjust your stop loss, when the market is moving in your favour – cool… You’ve got your reward management in play.
Rather focus on the next trade idea or the other bullets I mentioned in the beginning.
Keep control with what you can control and leave what you can’t control to the “stars”.
Trading Psychology: How Does Your Mind Matter In Making Money?Hello traders, today we will talk about Trading Psychology
The most famous book on trading psychology, “Tradingpsychologie” aptly remarks, ‘The greatest enemy of the trader is fear. He who is afraid loses!’.
As a trader, you must have gone through emotions such as fear, greed, regret, hope, overconfidence, doubt, nervousness etc.
While every trader goes through this emotional rollercoaster, a successful trader knows that it’s never a good idea to let your emotions influence your investment decisions.
Not letting your emotions affect your trading decisions is the real meaning of trading psychology!
In this article, we will educate you on the meaning of trading psychology. We will also reveal trading tips and tricks to mentally prepare you to trade with confidence!
So, let’s begin!
What is Trading Psychology?
Trading psychology or investor psychology refers to the trader’s emotional and mental state which dictates their trading actions.
Some of these emotions like hope, confidence are helpful and should be embraced. But emotions like fear and greed must be contained. Another emotion that is very common in financial markets is the fear of missing out or FOMO.
It is essential to understand and develop a sharp mindset along with knowledge and experience to become a successful trader.
Let us take a look at the various psychological factors that affect a trader’s mindset and some pro-tips to deal with them.
1. Fear
Fear is a natural reaction that we sense when something is at risk. While trading, risks could occur in many forms –
Some bad news about the stocks or the market
Placing a trade and realising it’s not going the way you had hoped
Fear of loss of capital
Traders generally overreact and tend to liquidate their holdings because of fear. A strong trading psychology is when traders do not let fear dictate their buy/sell strategy.
What should you do?
Every trader must first understand what they are afraid of and why? Reflect on these issues ahead of time so you can quickly identify the problem and find a solution. Your focus should be to not let the fear of loss refrain you from making profit.
2. Greed
Greed enters when you desire excess profits. Rome was not built in a day and neither will your stock market fortune. If you find yourself on a winning streak, then book your profits and move on. Majority of the time, your greed will turn a winning streak into a disaster!
What should you do?
To combat greed, you should have a predefined profit booking level. Even before you enter a trade, define your stop-loss and book-profit levels to avoid being swayed by greed.
A sound trading psychology is when you are content with your profits and do not chase irrational profits.
3. Regret
Regret in trading comes in two ways.
A trader could regret placing a trade that didn’t work or
Regret not placing a trade that could have worked.
A trading psychology based on regret can be dangerous for a trader as it may result in placing wrong trades.
What should you do?
The best way to avoid a regretful trading psychology is to accept that you can’t have all the opportunities in the market. The equation in the stock markets is very simple – You win some; you lose some.
Once you accept this rule, your trading psychology will automatically change for the better.
4. Hope
Investors often think that trading is gambling. It’s because they hope to win all the time and when they don’t, they get dejected.
What should you do?
To become a successful trader, you must have a solid trading psychology which is not dependent on hope. If you keep hoping for things to change in the near future, you’re putting your entire investment at risk.
Don’t let hope keep you invested in a loss making trade. Be practical, and book your losses at the correct time.
To attain and maintain success as a trader, you have to work hard to cultivate a mindset! Let’s see how trading psychology helps you cultivate a better mindset!
How to Improve Your Trading Psychology
1. Get Yourself in the Right Mindset
Before you even start your trading day, simply remind yourself that markets are never constant. You will have some good days and some bad days, but the bad days too shall pass.
Another effective strategy to improve your trading psychology is to give yourself time. You are not going to make a fortune on your very first trading day. You need to spend time and efforts in creating a rock solid trading strategy which isn’t affected by the market sentiments.
While you cannot completely eliminate emotions from trading, the goal is to reduce the extent of emotions controlling your trading psychology.
2. Have a Great Knowledge Base
One of the best ways to improve your trading psychology is to increase your knowledge and trading skills. Having a strong knowledge base of the stock market is key to defeating negative trading psychology. Remember, knowledge is power!
3. Remind yourself that you are Trading in Real Money
When you’re trading online, it’s easy to forget that the numbers on your screen actually represent real money. There’s nothing wrong in risking your money in hopes of generating returns. But remember to be cautious and make smarter investment decisions.
4. Observe the Habits of Successful Traders
Stock market is unique because it treats each trader differently. When it comes to trading, you should be aware of what your peers are doing, not to copy them but to learn from them.
By observing the positive characteristics of successful traders and inculcating few habits or strategies into your own trading, you can improve your trading strategies manyfolds.
5. Practice! Practice! Practice!
Last but not the least, practice is the best and most reliable way to gain mental strength. It helps you improve your trading psychology over time as you build well practised trading strategies and are well prepared for any ups or downs.
Final Thoughts
Understanding trading psychology and implementing it is a time consuming process. You have to continuously refine your trading psychology over long time periods.
To sum up, remember these three golden principles of trading psychology
Be disciplined
Be flexible
Never stop learning
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
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How to achieve quick profits through short-term trading?Many friends enjoy short-term trading, mostly due to the short holding time, quick results, and the thrill of the process. However, short-term trading is the most challenging among all trading methods and requires careful consideration.
Today, I will share my early experience of short-term trading with you. Specific methods and strategies will be provided in the later part of this article, which are closely related to practical applications and, I believe, will be helpful for you.
The article is quite lengthy. If you find it helpful, please give it a thumbs-up at the end of the article. Thank you.
Advantages and disadvantages of short-term trading
Short-term trading does not have a strict definition standard. When the market moves quickly, positions can be closed within a day, but if the market moves slowly, it may take two or three days to close the position, all of which belong to short-term trading.
On charts, I usually consider trades at the 5-minute, 15-minute, and even 1-hour level as short-term trades.
The advantages of short-term trading are:
(1) Short holding time and quick results. People are naturally curious about the unknown and want to know the results quickly. Short-term trading fits human nature, making it easier to control emotions.
(2) High trading frequency, providing a thrilling experience. Many traders are restless and want to trade multiple times a day, short-term trading meets this human need.
(3) The decay cycle of the short-term trading system is short, and the distribution of trading results is more evenly distributed, making it easier to execute. Sometimes, even with a losing streak of 5 times, the long-term trading strategy may take over a month to recover, while the short-term trading strategy may only take two or three days. Thus, short-term trading is less torturous to human psychology during a losing streak.
Disadvantages of short-term trading:
(1) High trading frequency requires more time and energy and is not suitable for part-time traders.
(2) Frequent trading generates high trading costs. Therefore, short-term traders need to pay attention to their commission fees. I have seen many futures traders who have had their accounts charged two or three times, or even ten times, the commission fees. How can they make a profit like this?
(3) Requires higher professionalism and attention to trading details. Short-term trading is more sensitive to changes in the market. Sometimes, when the market changes, you don't have much time to think and must act decisively. People with more procrastinating personalities are not suitable for short-term trading. Additionally, the margin of error for short-term trading is relatively low. Long-term trades do not require very precise entry points, and being off by 5 or 10 points does not have a significant impact on the overall trade. However, in short-term trading, being off by 5 or 10 points can be the difference between profit and loss.
Therefore, short-term trading is a delicate operation, and all trading details must be clear and easy to execute. Short-term traders also need to possess qualities such as attention to detail, boldness, calmness, and decisiveness.
So, how can you quickly profit from short-term trading? Next, I will share two strategies.
2.Plan One: Choosing Volatile Markets with Large Amplitude for Short-term Trading
As a short-term trader, we only need to capture a small segment of market volatility, and it doesn't have to be the overall trend, as long as the market volatility is fast and the amplitude is large.
The faster the market volatility and the larger the amplitude, the easier it is to make profits. For the same 100-point profit, it may take only one day to achieve it when the volatility is fast and the amplitude is large, while it may take several days to achieve it when the volatility is slow and the amplitude is small, resulting in a much lower trading efficiency and different challenges to our mentality.
Therefore, the amplitude of the product is the key to making profits in short-term trading. We need to selectively engage in short-term trading and not try to swallow all profits. There are two specific strategies to consider.
Strategy One: Directly select high amplitude products for short-term trading.
Different products have their own characteristics when operating in the market. Some products have fast volatility and large amplitude, while others have slow volatility and small amplitude. Before engaging in short-term trading, we must select the most suitable products.
For example, in the same breakout trading opportunity, products with high volatility and larger amplitude can achieve greater profits more quickly.
As traders, we all understand that the faster we can lock in profits, the more confident we feel. Therefore, selecting the right products makes short-term trading easier.
Moreover, if you choose a slow-moving product, your holding time will be longer, and your position may be occupied, which will reduce the utilization rate of your funds and affect the final profit. Short-term trading is about paying attention to details and maintaining a strong mindset, as even the smallest details can determine your success or failure. Therefore, do not be careless.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD
📊 DBR & Demand Zone📍 What is Drop Base Rally in Trading?
The drop base rally pattern in technical analysis is a chart pattern that appears when the market falls, then enters a period of sideways price action, and finally, shows explosive upward movements. Market makers open buy orders from demand zones to have a long position in trading. This is some kind of study for technical analysis known as DBR. These patterns are the basis of supply/demand logics. In the showcased example, after a steep drop, the sale finally stopped, leaving bulls the option of buying at lower prices. However, purchasing power at that point was insufficient to reverse the market. Instead, the market starts moving sideways because neither buyers nor sellers could defeat the other party. Eventually, the price action entered the demand zone that was formed and recovered back to higher prices.
📍 How to identify Drop Base Rally pattern?
The drop base rally pattern contains three waves. As shown in the figure above.
🔹 Bearish wave: Drop
🔹 Sideways wave: Base.
🔹 Bullish wave (rally).
📍 Demand Zone
A demand zone is a price level where a significant amount of buying interest or demand for an asset is believed to exist. Traders use demand zones as potential areas of support where buying pressure could increase, causing the price to rebound or reverse. As shown in the example above, we entered a long trade once the price action reached that demand zone, with the entry being inside the zone and the stop loss below the zone.
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