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History of the American Dollar. Ups and Downs 1825-1906: US begins market operations to maintain the gold standard. 1924-1931: US engages in number of market operations, including buying foreign currencies, to maintain the gold standard. 1934-1961: US Treasury creates the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), conducts frequent operations directly in foreign exchange markets. 1971: Nixon Administration ends USD convertibility to gold, which had become unsustainable due to the large supply of dollars outstanding relative to gold reserves. 1973: US conducts intervention against German mark. 1974: US conducts intervention against Japanese yen. 1976: The USD officially becomes: fiat currency. 1977-1979: Very easy monetary policy weakens the USD. US intervenes often to support USD. 1979: Fed announces change in its open market procedures to combat inflation and, partly, to support a weakening USD. 1980-1981: US intervenes to tame strengthened dollar. 1985: Major economies agree in the Plaza Accord to devalue the USD relative to the JPY and DEM. In the following weeks, US intervenes often, selling dollars for other G5 currencies. 1987: Major economies sign Louvre Accord to halt USD depreciation. In coordinated interventions, US intervenes often to buy USD. 1988 - 1990: US intervenes repeatedly after G7 statement on importance of maintaing exchange rate stability. 1990: USD appreciates on a backdrop of solid economic growth and dormant inflation. 1991-1992: US and European central banks intervene often against the backdrop of a US recession and weakening USD. 1993: US intervenes to buy dollars and sell yen. 1994: Fed unexpectedly starts rate hiking cycle on an improving economy following the recession. US intervenes repeatedly to support the USD. 1998: US intervenes to purchase yen in a coordinated intervention to support Japan's economy following the Asian financial crisis. 2000: Dot-com bubble bursts. leading to recession. 2000: Coordinated G7 FX intervention to support the Euro, initiated by the ECB. 2001: 9/11 attacks increase overall uncertainty. Fed lowers rates to prop up the economy. 2002: Japan intervenes, selling yen for dollars, often supported by the Fed and ECB. 2004-2006: Fed tightens policy to curb inflation. 2008: Global Financial Crisis ushers in an era of exceptionally easy monetary policy in the US, much of the developed world, and some EMs. Flight to safety strengthens the USD. 2010: Euro sovereign debt crisis unfolds. 2011: US. UK and European central banks sell yen in a coordinated intervention following a sharp rise In FX volatility as a result of an earthquake in Japan. 2011: Standard & Poor's downgrades US sovereign debt; flight to safety nevertheless boosts USD in the months that follow. 2014: USD begins to rally on the back of stronger growth relative to other major economies and divergence in DM monetary policy. 2015: Fed begins raising rates. 2015: China surprises global financial markets by devaluing the renminbi for three consecutive days. 2017-2018: USD depreciates on the back of convergence in global growth, President Trump's sentiments for a weaker Dollar, and strength in other major currencies, particularly the euro. 2018-2019: USD rallies on tax reform and Fed's continuing tightening cycle. 2020: COVID-19 spreads globally; recession begins. March 2022: Fed begins raising rates again. July 2022: Dollar reaches parity with the euro for the first time since 2002. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Congressional Research Service, Haver Analytics, various news sources, Goldman Sachs GIR. Regards, R.Linda!
TVC:DXYEducation
by RLinda
43
10 reasons most traders lose moneyHey everyone!👋 Trading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich. Here’s a couple time-honored reasons that traders lose money, and some tips to help you get back to basics. Lack of knowledge 📘 Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. As a result, they make costly mistakes and quickly lose money. Poor risk management 🚨 Risk is an inherent part of trading, and it's important to manage it effectively in order to protect your capital and maximize your chances of success. However, many traders don't have a clear risk management strategy in place, and as a result, they are more vulnerable to outsized losses. Emotional decision-making 😞 It's easy to feel strong emotions while trading. However, making decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis can be a recipe for disaster. Many traders make poor decisions when they are feeling overwhelmed, greedy, or fearful and this can lead to significant losses. Lack of discipline 🧘‍♂️ Successful trading requires discipline, but many traders struggle to stick to their plan. This can be especially challenging when the market is volatile or when a trader is going through a drawdown. Create a system for yourself that's easy to stay compliant with! Over-trading 📊 Many traders make the mistake of over-trading, which means they take on too many trades and don't allow their trades to play out properly. This leads to increased risk, higher brokerage costs, and a greater likelihood of making losses. Clearly articulating setups you like can help separate good opportunities from the chaff. Lack of a trading plan 📝 A trading plan provides a clear set of rules and guidelines to follow when taking trades. Without a plan, traders may make impulsive decisions, which can be dangerous and often lead to losses. Not keeping up with important data and information ⏰ The market and its common narratives are constantly evolving, and it's important for traders to stay up-to-date with the latest developments in order to make informed decisions. Not cutting losses quickly ✂️ No trader can avoid making losses completely, but the key is to minimize their impact on your account. One of the best ways to do this is to cut your losses quickly when a trade goes against you. However, many traders hold onto losing trades for too long, hoping that they will recover, and this can lead to larger than expected losses. Not maximizing winners 💸 Just as it's important to cut your losses quickly, it's also important to maximize your winners. Many traders fail to do this, either because they don’t have a plan in place, telling them when and how to exit a trade. As a result, they may leave money on the table and miss out on potential profits. Not Adapting 📚 Adapting to changing market conditions is paramount to success in the financial markets. Regimes change, trading edge disappears and reappears, and the systems underpinning everything are constantly in flux. One day a trading strategy is producing consistent profits, the next, it isn't. Traders need to adapt in order to make money over the long term, or they risk getting phased out of the market. Overall, the majority of traders make losses because they fail to prepare for the challenges of the market. By educating themselves, developing a solid trading plan, and planning out decisions beforehand, traders can improve their chances of success and avoid common pitfalls. We hope you enjoyed! Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below! See you all next week. 🙂 – Team TradingView
NYSE:CVNAEducation
by TradingView
197
Interest Rate Futures and the First Cash Settled ContractCME: Eurodollar Futures ( CME:GE1! ), CBOT: Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! ) This is the second installment of the Holidays series “Celebrating 50 Years of Financial Futures.” Before 1970, commercial banks did business by accepting short-term deposits at low regulated rates and offering longer-term business and personal loans at higher rates. Double-digit inflation changed all that. Federal Reserve eliminated interest rate ceilings on time deposits under 3 months in 1970, and on those over 3 months in 1973. Banks incurred huge loss from a negative spread with deposit rate higher than loan rate. Fast forward to 2022, we find ourselves in a high inflation and an inverted yield-curve environment again. The overnight Fed Funds rate (4.00%) is nearly 500 basis points higher than the 10-Year Treasury Note (T-Note) yield (3.51%) as of December 4th. Rising interest rates increase the financing cost from businesses to households alike. The Fed’s six consecutive rate hikes from March to November 2022 contributed to significant drawdown in the value of stocks, bonds, and commodities. If you bought $100,000 of Treasury bonds (T-bonds) in January, its market value could drop as much as 30% with bond yield jumping to 3.5% from 1.5%. If you owe $10,000 in credit card debt, monthly interest rate charge could run up to 25% a year from 15%. Like foreign exchange, interest rate is not a physical commodity. It is a right to holders of an interest-bearing product, and a liability to its issuer. The above examples show that both buyer and seller could have large financial exposure to changes in interest rates. To hedge interest rate risks, futures contracts were invented in Chicago futures markets, namely, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). CBOT Ginnie Mae Futures Government National Mortgage Association is a US government supported entity within the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The nickname “Ginnie Mae” come from its acronym GNMA. GNMA issues Ginnie Mae certificates, a type of mortgage-backed passthrough securities. Investors receive interest and principal payments from a large pool of mortgage loans. Since timely payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, Ginnie Mae bonds are considered default risk free and have an AAA credit rating. Although they are free from default risk, holders of Ginnie Mae bonds are exposed to interest rate risk, as bond price moves inversely with bond yield. Sensing the need from savings and loans, mortgage bankers, and dealers of mortgage-backed securities, CBOT launched Ginnie Mae Bond Futures in October 1975. This was the first time a futures contract was based on an interest-bearing instrument. At contract expiration, futures buyers would receive actual Ginnie Mae bonds from futures sellers. While the Ginnie Mae contract has since delisted, it paved the way for the successful launches of other interest rate futures contracts in the 1970s and 1980s. CME Treasury Bill Futures Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term securities issued by the US Treasury to help finance the spending of the federal government. New T-bills with maturities of thirteen, twenty-six, and fifty-two weeks are issued on a regular basis. The secondary market for T-bills is active, making them among the most liquid of money market instruments. In May 1972, the International Monetary Market (IMM) division of the CME launched foreign exchange futures, the first financial futures contract. In January 1976, the IMM listed futures contract on 90-day (13-week) T-bills. It was the first futures contract for a money market instrument. Nobel laureate Milton Friedman rang the opening bell on T-Bill Futures launch day. Upon maturity, seller is required to deliver T-bills with a $1 million face value and thirteen weeks left to maturity. Contracts for delivery in March, June, September, and December are listed. At any one time, contracts for eight different delivery dates are traded. T-bills do not pay explicit interest. Instead, they are sold at a discount to redemption value. The difference between the two prices determines the interest earned by a buyer. T-bill yields are quoted on a discount basis. Futures contracts are quoted on an index devised by the IMM, by subtracting the discount yield from 100. Index values move in the same direction as T-bill price. A rise in the index means that the price of a future delivered T-bill has risen. The formula for calculating the discount yield is: Discount Yield = ((Face Value - Purchase Price) / Face Value) X (360 / Days to Maturity) CBOT Treasury Bond Futures In August 1977, CBOT launched futures contracts on the T-Bonds. At the time, the birth of T-bond futures hardly seemed like a breakthrough. Financial futures were still in their infancy. Soybeans and corn were king in the CBOT trading pit. But all that changed in October 1979 when the Fed moved to strangle runaway inflation with a revised credit policy. The Saturday night massacre, as it was dubbed, ended decades of interest-rate stability. Interest rates bounced like a Ping Pong, affected by money supply, world events and inflation. Trading of T-Bond futures took off like a rocket. In addition to the traditional T-Bond futures (ZB) with 15-year maturity, CBOT also lists a 20-Yr T-Bond futures (TWE) and an Ultra T-Bond (UB) with 30-year maturity. In the Mid-curve, the T-Note suite includes 2-Yr Note (ZT), 3-Yr Note (Z3), 5-Yr Note (ZF), 10-Yr Note (ZN), and Ultra 10-Yr T-Note (TN). On December 2, 2022, daily volume of the first T-Bond futures was 388,370 contracts, while open interest reached 1,170,800 contracts. Daily volume of all CME Group interest rates futures and options contracts (IR) reached 13,786,454 lots, contributing to 54.1% of Exchange total. IR open interest was 78,244,297 lots, representing 70.4% of Exchange total. Cash Settlement Comes to Futures Market Up until now, futures contracts were settled by physical delivery of the underlying commodities. • Buyer of 1 CME Live Cattle may pick up 35 cows (40,000 pounds) from Union Stockyard in Chicago southside or take delivery at a cattle auction in Wyoming. • Seller of 1 CBOT Soybean contract would ship 5,000 bushels of the grain to a licensed grain elevator in Illinois, Iowa, or Kansas. • For CME Pork Bellies, settlement may involve title changes of warehouse receipt from seller to buyer for 40,000 pounds of the frozen meat in a cold storage. Even financial futures required physical delivery at that time. • For British Pound/USD contract, it is £62,500 in pound sterling. • For Ginnie Mae contract, it is $10 million worth of Ginnie Mae certificate. • T-Bond futures calls for delivery of treasury bonds with face value of $100,000 and maturity of no less than 15 years. As we discussed in “The Bogeyman in Financial Contracts”, there is inherent risk in the physical delivery mechanism. No matter how robust its original design is, industry evolution could outgrow capacity, rendering delivery failure under extreme market conditions. In December 1981, CME launched Eurodollar futures, the first contract with cash settlement feature. Cash settlement alone can be viewed as a financial revolution. Why? • It significantly reduces transaction cost, which in turn enhances the risk transfer or hedging function in futures. • It allows non-commercial users to participate in futures. Broader participation improves liquidity, and the price discovery as well as risk management functions. CME Eurodollar Futures Eurodollars are dollar-deposits held with banks outside of the US. There are two types of Eurodollar deposits: nontransferable time deposits and certificates of deposit (CDs). Time deposits have maturities ranging from 1 day to 5 years, with 3 months being the most common. Eurodollar CDs are also commonly issued with maturities under a year. Technically, buyer of Eurodollar future contract is required to place $1,000,000 in a 3-month Eurodollar time deposit paying the contracted interest rate on maturity date. However, this exists only in principle and is called a “Notional Value”. Cash settlement means that actual physical delivery never takes place; instead, any net changes in the value of the contract at maturity are settled in cash on the basis of spot market Eurodollar rates. Unlike T-bills, Eurodollar deposits, the underlying of Eurodollar futures, pay explicit interest. The interest paid on such deposit is termed an add-on yield because the depositor receives the face amount plus an explicit interest payment when the deposit matures. In the case of Eurodollar, the add-on yield is the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), which is the interest rate at which major international banks offer to place Eurodollar deposits with one another. Like other money market rates, LIBOR is an annualized rate based on a 360-day year. Price quotations for Eurodollar futures are based on the IMM Eurodollar futures price index, which is is 100 minus the LIBOR. In the following four decades, all financial futures are designed with cash settlement. Eurodollar futures paves the way for equity index futures, which were launched in February 1982 at Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) and April 1982 at CME. Without cash settlement, can you imagine how to deliver 500 different stocks on a market-weighted basis for the S&P 500 futures? Or 2,000 stocks for the Russell 2000? Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
9
👻5 INDICATORS FOR BEGINNERS👻 🍉Moving Average A moving average helps cut down the amount of noise on a price chart. Look at the direction of the moving average to get a basic idea of which way the price is moving. If it is angled up, the price is moving up (or was recently) overall; angled down, and the price is moving down overall; moving sideways, and the price is likely in a range. A moving average can also act as support or resistance 🍉Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are a form of technical analysis that traders use to plot trend lines that are two standard deviations away from the simple moving average price of a security. The goal is to help a trader know when to enter or exit a position by identifying when an asset has been overbought or oversold. Bollinger Bands were designed by John Bollinger. Bollinger Bands help by signaling changes in volatility. For generally steady ranges of a security, such as many currency pairs, Bollinger Bands act as relatively clear signals for buying and selling 🍉Relative Strength Index (RSI) The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of the pair’s recent price changes to evaluate overvalued or undervalued conditions in the price of that pair. It can also indicate pairs that may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. It can signal when to buy and sell. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100Traditionally, an RSI reading of 70 or above indicates an overbought situation. A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition. 🍉MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) The concept behind the MACD is fairly straightforward. Essentially, it calculates the difference between an instrument's 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages (EMA). In calculating their values, both moving averages use the closing prices of whatever period is measured. On the MACD chart, a nine-period EMA of the MACD itself is also plotted. This line is called the signal line, which acts as a trigger for buy and sell decisions. The MACD is considered the "faster" line because the points plotted move more than the signal line, which is regarded as the "slower" line. 🍉On-Balance Volume (OBV) On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical trading momentum indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in the price. The theory behind OBV is based on the distinction between smart money – namely, institutional investors – and less sophisticated retail investors. As mutual funds and pension funds begin to buy into an issue that retail investors are selling, volume may increase even as the price remains relatively level. Eventually, volume drives the price upward. At that point, larger investors begin to sell, and smaller investors begin buying. 🌺Hope u like my article. Please tell me what is YOUR favortie indicator? Love, Anabel❤️ Please, support my work with like and comment! Love you, my dear followers!👩‍💻🌸
Education
by AnabelSignals
80
Investors' Holy Grail - The Business/Economic CycleThe business cycle describes how the economy expands and contracts over time. It is an upward and downward movement of the gross domestic product along with its long-term growth rate. The business cycle consists o f 6 phases/stages : 1. Expansion 2. Peak 3. Recession 4. Depression 5. Trough 6. Recovery 1) Expansion : Sectors Affected: Technology, Consumer discretion Expansion is the first stage of the business cycle. The economy moves slowly upward, and the cycle begins. The government strengthens the economy: Lowering taxes Boost in spending. - When the growth slows, the central bank reduces rates to encourage businesses to borrow. - As the economy expands, economic indicators are likely to show positive signals, such as employment, income, wages, profits, demand, and supply. - A rise in employment increases consumer confidence increasing activity in the housing markets, and growth turns positive. A high level of demand and insufficient supply lead to an increase in the price of production. Investors take a loan with high rates to fill the demand pressure. This process continues until the economy becomes favorable for expansion. 2) Peak : Sector Affected : Financial, energy, materials - The second stage of the business cycle is the peak which shows the maximum growth of the economy. Identifying the end point of an expansion is the most complex task because it can last for serval years. - This phase shows a reduction in unemployment rates. The market continues its positive outlook. During expansion, the central bank looks for signs of building price pressures, and increased rates can contribute to this peak. The central bank also tries to protect the economy against inflation in this stage. - Since employment rates, income, wages, profits, demand & supply are already high, there is no further increase. - The investor will produce more and more to fill the demand pressure. Thus, the investment and product will become expensive. At this time point, the investor will not get a return due to inflation. Prices are way higher for buyers to buy. From this situation, a recession takes place. The economy reverses from this stage. 3) Recession : Sector Affected : Utilities, healthcare, consumer staples - Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. - The recession is followed by a peak phase. In this phase economic indicators start melting down. The demand for the goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. 4) Depression : - In more prolonged downturns, the economy enters into a depression phase. The period of malaise is called depression. Depression doesn't happen often, but when they do, there seems to be no amount of policy stimulus that can lift consumers and businesses out of their slumps. When The economy is declining and falling below steady growth, this stage is called depression. - Consumers don't borrow or spend because they are pessimistic about the economic outlook. As the central bank cuts interest rates, loans become cheap, but businesses fail to take advantage of loans because they can't see a clear picture of when demand will start picking up. There will be less demand for loans. The business ends up sitting on inventories & pare back production, which they already produced. - Companies lay off more and more employees, and the unemployment rate soars and confidence flatters. 5) Trough : - When economic growth becomes negative, the outlook looks hopeless. Further decline in demand and supply of goods and services will lead to more fall in prices. - It shows the maximum negative situation as the economy reached its lowest point. All economic indicators will be worse. Ex. The highest rate of unemployment, and No demand for goods and services(lowest), etc. After the completion, good time starts with the recovery phase. 6) Recovery : Affected sectors: Industrials, materials, real estate - As a result of low prices, the economy begins to rebound from a negative growth rate, and demand and production are both starting to increase. - Companies stop shedding employees and start finding to meet the current level of demand. As a result, they are compelled to hire. As the months pass, the economy is once in expansion. - The business cycle is important because investors attempt to concentrate their investments on those that are expected to do well at a certain time of the cycle. - Government and the central bank also take action to establish a healthy economy. The government will increase expenditure and also take steps to increase production. After the recovery phases, the economy again enters the expansion phase. Safe heaven/Defensive Stocks - It maintains or anticipates its values over the crisis, then does well. We can even expect good returns in these asset classes. Ex. utilities, health care, consumer staples, etc. ("WE WILL DISCUSS MORE IN OUR UPCOMING ARTICLE DUE TO ARTICLE LENGTH.") It's a depression condition for me that I couldn't complete my discussion after spending many days in writing this article. However, I will upload the second part of this article that will help investors and traders in real life. This article took me a long time to write. I'm not expecting likes or followers, but I hope you will read it. @Money_Dictators
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Money_Dictators
64
🟢STOP AND LIMIT ORDERS EXPLAINED🟢 ✴️Types of orders in trading There are two main types of order: entry orders and closing orders. An entry order is an instruction to open a trade when the underlying market hits a specific level, while a closing order is an instruction to close a trade when the market hits a specific level. ✴️Stops vs limits A stop order is an instruction to trade when the price of a market hits a specific level that is less favourable than the current price. On the other hand, a limit order is an instruction to trade if the market price reaches a specified level more favourable than the current price. ✴️Stop orders explained You can use stop orders to close positions and to open them, by using either a stop-loss order or a stop-entry order. ✴️Stop-loss orders A stop-loss order is the common term for a stop closing order – an instruction to close your position when the market value becomes less favourable than the current price. ✴️Stop-entry orders A stop-entry order enables you to open a position when the market reaches a value that is less favourable than the current price. If you were opening a long position, you’d place your stop-entry order above the current market price. And if you were opening a short position, you’d place your stop-entry order below the current price. Although it may seem strange to open a trade at a worse price, stop-entry orders can enable you to enter a trade once a trend has been confirmed. This helps you take advantage of market momentum. ✴️Limit orders explained Like stop orders, limit orders can be used to open and close trades. ✴️Limit-entry orders A limit-entry order enables you to enter a trade when the market hits a more favourable price than the current price. For long positions, this would be below the current price level and for short positions this would be above. ✴️Limit-close orders A limit-close order enables you to close a trade at a more favourable price – which would be at a higher level for a long position and a lower level for a short position. The major drawback of a limit order is that there is the possibility it will not be filled if the market never reaches your order level – in this case the order would expire. If you had placed a limit-entry order, it is possible that your trade would never be executed. And if you had placed a limit-close order, your trade would not be closed automatically. 😊Thank you for reading, guys😊 ✅Like and Subscribe for more education✅ Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
Education
by ProSignalsFx
36
Is Trading Like Playing Poker? Is trading a form of gambling? With hesitance, I would say yes. However, I would rather call trading a form of strategic gambling as both require elements of risk, reward, strategy and decision making. In the next two weeks or so, I’m planning to publish a new online FREE book called “Poker Vs Trading”. Who knows, by the end of it all you may take up professional poker playing as well as trading… Let’s start with the similarities. SIMILARITY #1: We can choose when to play (Strategy) Traders and poker players don’t play every hand that is dealt to them. With poker, when a hand is dealt, we can choose to either play the hand, based on how strong it is, or we can choose to fold and wait for the next hand… With trading, we wait for a trading setup based on the criteria of our strategy i.e. MATI Trader System. You’ll then have the exact criteria and money management rules to follow in order to take a trade or wait for the next trade. SIMILARITY #2: Amateur poker players and traders tend to go the ‘tilt’ (Emotional roller-coaster) Emotions are a main driver which leads to traders losing their cash in their account or poker players losing their chips very quickly. With poker, you get players who let their emotions take over where they start betting high with an irrational frame of mind. These emotions lead them to losing their chips very quickly. This is when they enter the state of what is called ‘going the tilt’. With trading, amateur traders also tend to act on impulse and play on gut, instinct, fear and greed after they’ve undergone a losing streak or a winning streak. This often leads them to: ~ Taking a series of losses. ~ Losing huge portions of their portfolio. ~ Holding onto losing trades longer than they should. ~ Entering a mindset of revenge trading. SIMILARITY #3: We know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em (Cut losses quick) We have the choice to reduce our losses when it comes to betting a hand or taking a trade. With poker, if the players start upping the stakes and you believe you have a weaker hand in the round, you can choose to ‘fold’ and lose only the cost of playing the ‘ante’. With trading, if you’ve taken a trade and it turns against you, you have a stop loss which will get you out at the amount of money you were willing to risk of your portfolio… SIMILARITY #4: We know the rake (Costs involved) There are always costs associated with each trade we take or each hand we play, which eats into our winnings. With poker, it’s the portion of the pot that is taken by the house i.e. the blinds and the antes. With trading, it’s the fees charged by your broker or market maker, in order to take your trade. These fees can be either the tax, spread and/or the brokerage. SIMILARITY #5: Aggressive trading and betting before the flop (High volatility) There will always be a time of strong market moves and high betting. With poker, you get times where players like to bet aggressively and blindly before the flop is revealed. It’s these times that lead to the amateur poker players losing their chips very quickly. With trading, you get economic data i.e. Non-Farm-Payrolls, black swan events and Interest Rate decisions when big investors and traders like to drive the market up or down before the news even comes out. NOTE: I ignore both forms of hype as it is can lead to a catastrophic situation. SIMILARITY #6: We bet and trade based on the unknown Every bet and trade we take and play is based on incomplete information of the future. With poker, we are dealt hands then bet on decisions based on not knowing what cards our opponents have and/or what is shown on the river. We then have the options to call, bet, raise or fold during the process.With trading, we take trades based on probability predictions without knowing where the price will end up at. This is due to new information which comes into the market including (demand, supply, news, economic indicators, micro and macro aspects). SIMILARITY #7: We lose A LOT! (Losses are inevitable) Taking small losses are part of the game with both poker and trading. With poker, it is important to wait patiently until you have a hand with a high probability of success. Some of the best poker players in the world, fold 90% of the starting hands, they receive. Some professional poker players can go through weeks and months without a win. With trading, we can lose over 40% to 50% of the time. In general, I expect around two losing quarters a year. I know that when there are better market conditions, it will make up for the small losses. SIMILARITY #8: You must learn to earn (Education is vital) You need to understand and gain as much knowledge as you can about poker and trading before you commit any money. With poker, you need to understand: • The rules of the game. • The risk per move. • The amount of money you should play per hand. Once you know these points, you’ll be able to develop some kind of game plan with each hand you play. With trading, you need to understand: • The MARKET (What, why, where are how?)NB* • The METHOD (What system to follow before taking a trade). • The MONEY (Risk management rules to follow with each trade) • The MIND (The frame of mind you must develop to succeed) SIMILARITY #9: Perseverance is the key ingredient to success You need to take the time and have the determination to become a successful trader and poker player. With poker, you’ll need to keep at it and apply strict money management rules with each hand played. With trading, you’ll need to know your trading personality, know which trading method best works you and understand your risk profile… I’ll leave you with a quote from Vince Lombardi (American football player, coach, and executive): “Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect” Do you think trading is like poker? If you enjoyed this daily lesson follow fore more! Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
24
Volume Profile: Everything You Need To KnowHey everyone! 👋 If you have been in the market for some time, you may have heard of a tool called “Volume Profile”. Today, we are going to take a deeper look at this tool, explain how it works, and leave you with a few tricks that you can use to supercharge your analysis. What is Volume Profile? 🤔 Volume Profile is an advanced charting tool that displays trading activity at specific price levels over a specified time period. On the chart, it plots a horizontal histogram to reveal areas where significant trading volume happened. Differences vs. Traditional Volume 👀 The core difference between Traditional Volume and Volume Profile is how they consider volume with respect to the time and price. In other words, Traditional volume tells you when volume happened, and Volume Profile tells you where it happened. Volume Profile Terminology 🔤 The Volume Profile tool has several unique components & terminology that you should know about: Point of Control (POC) – The single price level in a given time period where the most volume traded. Profile High – The highest reached price level during the specified time period. Profile Low – The lowest reached price level during the specified time period. Value Area (VA) – The range in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70%. Value Area High (VAH) – The highest price level within the value area. Value Area Low (VAL) – The lowest price level within the value area. Tips & Tricks 😎 Just like with most other tools or studies, Volume Profile has a number of uses. One common strategy is to analyze where previous period value areas are vs. the current price. If current prices are outside of a previous period's value area, then it can be assumed that an asset is trending. If price is still within a previous period's value area, then some may label that asset as being in a consolidation. Determining trend and consolidation are often used in conjunction with trend following and mean reversion execution strategies, respectively. Another common strategy is to use "Virgin" Point of Control (VPOC's) as key levels in an asset. VPOC's are levels that haven't yet been retested and remain untouched by current price action since they were formed. The idea here is that if there was lots of action at a certain price, then it's likely that the market's biggest participants have positions from that level. This can cause predictable behavior which keen-eyed traders can take advantage of. Looking to get access to Volume Profile on your chart? There's still some time left in our Cyber Monday sale . Act fast! Thanks for reading! Cheers! - Team TradingView ❤️
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by TradingView
53
Learn How to Apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis Hey traders, In this article, we will discuss Multiple Time Frame Analysis. I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips. Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss: There are 3 main categories of time frames: 1️⃣Higher time frames 2️⃣Trading time frames 3️⃣Lower time frames 1️⃣Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category. The analysis of these time frames is the most important. On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels, the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis. 2️⃣Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened. The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames. My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns. Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened. 3️⃣Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues. Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames. Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues. You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
73
Gauging Market Sentiment on Risk Using the IG/HY SpreadWhen the spread between High-Yield (HY) debt and Investment Grade (IG) debt contracts or expands, this can be perceived as the market demanding more or less compensation for the risk it perceives to be present in owning the HY debt against the IG corporate debt. (HY-IG) = Risk On/Risk Off market sentiment. Generally speaking HY debt a.k.a. Junk Debt, is considered more risky than IG debt. Because of this increased risk, the market demands a higher yield for taking on HY debt, also known as a ‘risk premium’ or ‘premium’ over the alternative investment opportunities the market provides. This yield premium on HY/JunkBonds can be viewed as ‘extra incentive’ for bids to take on the ‘riskier debt’. When this spread (white) contracts, we can see that the market (yellow) has a tendency to go up (risk on) and when the spread (white) expands we can see the market (white) has a tendency to go down (risk off). This is only one of many indicators I use to gauge ‘market risk sentiment’ and I thought I would share it. (Not financial advice.)
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2Education
by Firewalker_Charts
10
Alerts: 3 reasons they can make you a better traderHey Everyone! 👋 We hope you’re enjoying Black Friday week and have helped yourself to some of the great discounts we are offering. We only do this once a year, so it really is the best time to get a plan! Now, let’s jump into today’s topic: Alerts . While alerts have a ton of potential applications when it comes to trading, they are often underutilized because it can take some time and ingenuity to build a system where they can work well. Let's take a look at some reasons that that investment is well worth it . 1. They can help build good habits 💪 Stop us if this sounds familiar: you hear an awesome investment story, and then immediately go out in the market and purchase the asset, with no plan in place. While this can work, it’s not a great strategy for long term success, because in reality it can be extremely hard to sit in that position without a plan and trade it efficiently. You may choose to exit the position based on nothing more than momentary greed or fear, and moves like that can prevent consistency and long-term profitability. Alerts are great because they can take out the guesswork of entering and exiting a position. Simply set alerts for the prices you would like, then place a trade if, and only if, the conditions are met. Then, let the market do its thing and let the probabilities work in your favor. Alerts can turn the experience of trading from a constant search for ideas - and always feeling behind - into a relaxing job of waiting for your own pre-approved conditions to trigger before taking action. In short, alerts can make you much more well prepared for the market’s ups and downs. 2. They increase freedom and reduce anxiety 🧘 There is a well-known maxim in trading and in life that states that negative emotions are felt twice as strongly as positive emotions. This factoid has lots of applications, but it can be especially useful to understand as a trader. Consider the following investors: A dentist who checks quarterly reports from his brokerage A position trader who checks his positions once a month A swing trader who checks his positions once a week A Day trader who checks his positions once a day, if not more Given the natural volatility that markets experience, which market participant is least likely to be mad or upset? The dentist. Why? Because he is receiving less data points from the market. Even world class day traders are exposed to tens or hundreds of negative situations in their positions on a day-to-day basis as a result of volatility, which they cannot control. This level of negative stimulation can reduce mental health and trading effectiveness. Alerts allow well prepared traders with some edge to step back from the markets and allow the trades to come to them. 3. Our alerts don’t let anything fall through the cracks ✅ While the previous two points are benefits when it comes to price alerts, our alerts also step the game up considerably when it comes to user utility. Once you have setups that you like to trade, you can set alerts on trendlines, technical indicators, customizable scripts, and so much more, so you can ensure that your favorite setups aren’t being missed. This can be as simple as a long-term investor setting RSI alerts on Dow 30 stocks, in order to buy dips in strong names, to as complex as an intraday futures spread scalper setting alerts for pricing inefficiencies within his top 40 contracts. Our customizable alerts can really allow well organized traders to capture every opportunity as they see it. And there you have it! 3 reasons to take advantage of alerts, and all of the awesome benefits they bring. Thanks for reading and stay well! Love, Team TradingView ❤️❤️
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by TradingView
38
Celebrating 50 Years of Financial FuturesThis is a Thanksgiving Special Report. Swiss Franc ( CME:6S1! ), Canadian Dollar ( CME:6C1! ), Japanese Yen ( CME:6J1! ), British Pound ( CME:6B1! ), Mexican Peso ( CME:6M1! ) In May 1972, International Monetary Market (IMM), a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), launched futures contracts on seven currency pairs. This was the world’s first financial futures instrument, a futures contract based on something other than physical commodities. What has made a Midwestern Exchange, known mainly for its Pork Bellies contract, a frontrunner in financial innovation? Bretton Woods System and its Collapse At the end of World War II, the United States and its allies created the Bretton Woods System. Essentially, it was a global monetary system governed by fixed currency exchange rates. The US dollar was backed by gold, at a fixed rate of $35 per troy ounce. Other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar. In 1955, one dollar was exchanged for 0.3572 British Pound, 4.2 Deutsch Mark, 3.3 France Franc, 0.986 Canadian Dollar, 360 Japanese Yen, 625 Italy Lire, etc. Each country was responsible for maintaining its exchange rate within 1% of the adopted par value by buying or selling foreign reserves when necessary. The U.S. was responsible for maintaining the gold parity. Its big commitment was allowing anyone with $35 to exchange for an ounce of gold at the US Treasury window. As global inflation rose sharply in the 1970s, many countries could not maintain the official peg. They responded by redeeming dollars for gold at the US Treasury window. With US gold reserve depleting rapidly and a gold run looming, in August 1971, President Richard Nixon announced the "temporary" suspension of the dollar's convertibility into gold. This marked the breakdown of the Bretton Woods. Central banks around the world were no longer obligated to peg their exchange rates to the US dollar. Leo Melamed and Milton Friedman With fixed rates, there was no exchange rate risk in international trade. However, flowing rate exposes importers and exporters to significant uncertainty to the amount of dollar or foreign currency they will receive or are obliged to pay for. Since its founding in 1898, CME has been the place where producers, processors, merchants, and commercial users come together to hedge price risks for a wide range of commodities. Leo Melamed, then Chairman of the CME, was convinced that the futures market is the solution to tackle the rise in exchange rate volatility. Leo set up an International Monetary Market division within the CME and prepared for new futures contracts derived from foreign exchange rates. Initially, this breakthrough idea found no friends on Wall Street. According to Leo, one investment bank president tossed it out saying he didn’t want the Chicago “Pork Belly Shooters” to contaminate the FX market. Leo met with Milton Friedman, a well-respected economics professor at the University of Chicago. Milton fully supported the ingenious design and published a feasibility study, “The Need for Futures Markets in Currencies” in 1971. Milton Friedman (1912-2006) won the Nobel Prize in Economic Science “for his research on consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and the complexity of stabilization policy” (the Nobel Committee). This changed everything. When Leo went to Washington to lobby the idea of listing foreign exchange futures, Treasury Secretary George Shultz said, “If it’s good enough for Milton, it is good enough for me.” George Shultz (1920-2021) served as Secretary of State in the Regan Administration and as Treasury and Labor Secretary under Richard Nixon. He was also the Dean of Graduate School at the University of Chicago, and a good friend with Milton Friedman. If you are interested in the story of FX futures, you may find it online and at Leo’s 1996 memoirs, “Escape to the Futures”. Foreign Exchange Futures On May 16, 1972, IMM simultaneously launched seven futures contracts based on the US dollar exchange rates to British Pound ( CME:6B1! ), Japanese Yen ( CME:6J1! ), Canadian Dollar ( CME:6C1! ), Swiss Franc ( CME:6S1! ), Mexican Peso ( CME:6M1! ), Deutsch Mark and Italy Lira. Five of those original FX contracts are still actively trading at the CME. Deutsch Mark and the Lira have been delisted since Germany and Italy joined the Euro currency. The new contract, Euro/USD FX ( CME:6E1! ), becomes the most active CME FX future contract. FX contracts saw exponential growth in trading volume in the next fifty years. In the first 9 months of 2022, average daily volume for all FX futures and options reached 983,000 lots, according to the CME Group. On November 15th, Euro FX alone traded 359,000 lots and had an open interest of 683,293 contracts. My writings on TradingView include a number of trade ideas on FX futures contracts. Please take a look if you haven't yet. FX Futures were the start of a “Financial Revolution” in the futures industry. The next few years saw new breeds of futures contracts, including interest rate futures between 1975 and1977 and equity index futures in 1982. During the holiday season, I would start a series on the leaders and innovators at CME, CBOT and KCBT. They brought GNMA Futures, T-Bill and T-Bond Futures, Eurodollar Futures, Value-Line Index Futures and S&P 500 Futures to life and revolutionize the financial derivatives world as we know it today. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6S1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
2
What Are The Pros And Cons of Intraday vs Swing TradingHello traders, There is not such a good or bad timeframe. Like cooking, everything depends on how you use the ingredients for your meals. Intraday timeframes Pros Earlier entries Earlier exits => losers are smaller compared to losers with SWING trades You make your daily goals earlier With Intraday trading, we're not impacted by contracts expiration, rollover, over-weekend, overnight fees It's rarely boring (especially with indices trading) Leverage isn't needed Perfect for beginners or small capital Cons More in/out entries => you have to enter, exit, enter, exit until the real move happen You have to be more reactive and accurate when taking a position or exiting. Swing timeframes Pros More time to react and prepare We don't need to be too accurate with our entries and exits You're less impacted by news/events/rumours/tweets - They have a real visible impact on intraday but generally don't change a thing for the swing trend Cons Bigger drawdown by design Forces to hold trades over multiple days/weeks. In a range, we pay a lot in funding/rollover fees before the real move happens. Being double digits percent down because of fees isn't pleasant. Big capital required to afford to lose a few percentages sometimes with those trading fees 1 click takes 5 seconds. Then you wait and wait and wait and wait, and then look on Twitter for ideas to invalidate your entries. When your favorite guru shares a contrary setup, you follow his/her call and wreck yourself. You really need patience with SWING trades. If the patience for you is an issue, I'd stick with Intraday. Have a great day Dave
Education
by Daveatt
22
How to find High Probability trades?Hi all, hope you guys are doing well. In this post, we are going to see how we can combine different indicators/concepts to create confluence zones and find high-probability trades. Introduction A trade that has a greater chance of success than a regular trade is called a high-probability trade. Obviously, it's our assumption that some trades have higher chances of success as compared to others because they have more supporting factors. Nevertheless, a high probability trade can also result in a loss. How to find high-probability trades? There are a few things that you can observe to find a confluence of various important factors such as a support/resistance level, demand/ supply zone , Fibonacci level, moving averages, volume , RSI , etc. Depending on your knowledge and trading style, the confluence zone can be derived using a combination of various different concepts or indicators. In this post, I am going to share the factors that I look at for finding good trades. How to find confluence zones? In order to find the confluence zones, you need to understand the concepts and the indicators, then combine them together to create the whole picture. It's like building a jigsaw puzzle - first, you need to identify the individual pieces, and then you need to put them together. Let’s dive into all of these concepts one by one. 1. Market structure Market structure is simply a basic form of understanding how the markets move. The price action is how the market moves based just on price, without the consideration of trends and how they may continue. But the market structure is focused mainly on the trend. I have covered market structure in various different threads that you can read here: a) Introduction to Market structure b) Bullish market structure c) Bearish market structure 2. Consolidation before Breakout If a stock consolidates before giving a breakout, there are higher chances that it will be a true breakout. This is because all the residual supply gets absorbed at the resistance zone and most of the pending demand orders get filled. Ideally, once a stock goes into consolidation, one of the two processes occurs: Accumulation Distribution In layman’s terms, - If demand is more aggressive than supply, then the price rallies, which confirms accumulation. - Similarly, if the supply is more aggressive than the demand, then the price falls down, which confirms distribution. If you are struggling with identifying the breakouts, be sure to read this post. 3. Support-Resistance levels S/R levels are critical parts of trend analysis because they are used to highlight important zones. The fact that these levels flip roles between support and resistance can be used to determine the range of a market, trade reversals, bounces, or breakouts. These levels exist due to the influx of buyers and sellers at key junctures. Flip zone acting as resistance: Flip zone acting as support: If you are looking for an in-depth tutorial on support and resistance, please check out my old guide here: 4. Supply-Demand zones S/D demand zones are one of the most important things that I look at while charting. The stronger the S/D zone, the higher the chances of a reaction. Always look for these zones in the direction of the major trend. 5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA Always observe the position of 200MA/ EMA with respect to price. Once the price interacts with the moving average, study the reaction. If you are looking for a long trade, then look for a positive reaction as the price reacts with the moving average. 6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level A lot of times, the price will come back to a Fibonacci level. You need to observe the price behavior near these levels. If you are not familiar with the Fibonacci tool, please check my old guide on Fibonacci retracement and extension. 7. Candlestick pattern and the size of the candles The candle spread plays an important role in determining the strength and mood of the underlying trend. In layman's terms, big-bodied candles indicate strength and small-bodied candles act as noise. In any case, the candlestick pattern and candle spread should only be viewed at an important level. The context plays a crucial role. 8. Chart patterns This is pretty self-explanatory. If you trade patterns, you can combine them with other factors to strengthen your analysis. 9. Volume expansion Ideally, at the time of the breakout, the volumes should rise. The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. Obviously, the majority of us are not looking at the orderflow and hence the volumes can be deceiving. But, for a normal trader, the simple volume indicator is more than enough. So, these are mainly all of the factors that I look at while analyzing the charts. Please note that the usage of the concepts will vary with charts. Sometimes only 3-4 factors may be at play and the other times, 6-7. High Probability trade checklist: 1. Market structure 2. Consolidation before the Breakout 3. Support-Resistance levels 4. Supply-Demand zones 5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA 6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level 7. Candlestick pattern and the size of candles 8. Chart pattern 9. Volume expansion In the example above, you can notice the following things: 1. The market structure was bullish before the breakout, which was evident from the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Don't confuse the internal structure (Low time frame structure) with the external structure (High time frame structure). 2. The price was consolidating in the rectangle / parallel channel for a good amount of time. 3. When the price reached the previous demand zone, the selling pressure started to decrease and the buyers started to step in. 4. When the price interacted with 200MA/ EMA, there was a strong reaction to the upside. This means that the buyers want to take the price higher. 6. The buying interest can be seen by an increase in the volume in the last few sessions before the breakout. The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. But in general, you do not need to complicate this, just use volumes in conjunction with other factors. 7. We always look for some reversal or indecision candlesticks in the confluence zone. In the chart above, at the point of interaction with the moving average and the demand zone, we can see the formation of exhaustion candles. Again, we need to look at these patterns only at specific important levels (like support or resistance levels) and disregard the formations in between the levels. 8. When the price broke above the previous major resistance with a massive bullish candle, there was a heavy volume expansion. More examples: You can read and revise this post until you understand all the concepts. Thanks for reading. I hope you found this helpful! 😊 Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk. Happy learning. Cheers! Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick) Community Manager (India), TradingView
NSE:BELEducation
by johntradingwick
16
My crazy partner is Mr. Market!We are used to the fact that the world's most prominent investors are known for their outstanding deals, returns and stability of results over a long time horizon. Yes, all this is certainly a sign of excellence, but no investor has gained his popularity through books. The books he wrote. This man created his writings back in the 1930s and 1940s, but they still inspire anyone who has taken the path of smart stock investing. You've probably guessed by now who we're talking about. It's the humble author of The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffett's teacher, Benjamin Graham. It's amazing that after many years, this book is still considered the bible of investing on the basis of fundamental analysis - Graham wrote such a thorough description of how a person investing in stocks should think. His insight into the market can be useful to anyone who is exposed to this chaotic environment. To understand Graham's philosophy, imagine that the market is your business partner "Mr. Market." Every day he stops by your office to visit and offer you a deal on your mutual company stock. Sometimes he wants to buy your stock, sometimes he wants to sell his own. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his gut. When he panics and is afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoric and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. That's the kind of crazy partner you have. Why is he acting this way? According to Graham, this is the behavior of all investors who don't understand the real value of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day. The task of the prudent investor is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for another visit from the crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stock at an extremely low price - take it and wish him luck. If he begs to sell him the stock and calls an unusually generous price - sell it and wish him luck. Of course, after a while, it may turn out that Mr. Market was not bad at all and made a very profitable deal with you. But the fact is that on the long horizon of time his luck will be washed away by a series of stupid things he will inevitably do. As for you, rest assured that tomorrow you will meet another Mister. So, as Graham has taught us, is teaching us, and will continue to teach us - you just have to be ready for it. Understanding the fundamental value of the company, this meeting will bring you nothing but pleasure!
TVC:DJIEducation
by Be_Capy
22
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve. This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen? The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system. Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds. The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms. So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower. In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead. According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967. There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries. But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices. This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
TVC:US10YEducation
by leandrosander_
33
Types of Gaps !!!👨‍🏫Hello👨🏻‍🏫, dear traders from all over the world🗺️. I'm Pejman🙋🏻‍♂️ & welcome🌸 to one more educational adventure🧭 in Tradingview, but we will not be traders💹 today; We want to look at our charts like a hunter🏹. We look for every clue🐾 we see so that we can hunt suitable positions💱 like valuable creatures💰 and transfer them to the cages as our accounts💳 or wallets💸. Although I'm not too fond🙍🏻‍♂️ of hunting, either legally or illegally. But I know that hunting good positions in the forests🏞️🌳 of Tradingview is not prohibited😉❗. So let's get acquainted with these clues🔎 as soon as possible because the price is skittish🙈, and we don't want to waste the hunting time⏳✅. I said that in Technical Analysis , we look for ways to trade by using the price information, which is recorded on the charts📈. (such as the prey's tracks🔎🐾) Today I want to introduce one of these clues so that you can become a professional position hunter🏹 by identifying the clues👀; But don't forget that you should practice🙌🏻, be careful⚠️, and watch your positions👀, so you don't miss them or rush 🏎️💨to the wrong❌ position🙂. Today's clue is the GAPS . First, let's see what the GAP is🤔. The gap is nothing. I mean, it is something that is nothing😶🙄. It is incredibly paradoxical💥! I'm kidding😉, but the space between candles🕯️ or bars is called a GAP. A gap is created when we see👀 a price gap between two candles🕯️ or bars when the trading volume is high⏫ or low⏬. This difference or space between two candles is called a gap🤏🏻. It is said that gaps are more valuable✅ in higher time frames among the traders, so much coin, much care👀. Gaps, or as the Japanese🎌 term "windows," are significant for hunting🏹 positions, so as hunter traders, we should learn these gaps well👌🏻. The reason🧐 for creating gaps can be factors such as important positive🆒 or negative🙈 news or an increase🔺 or decrease🔻 in supply and demand. It is interesting to know that gaps are primarily seen in Forex , Stocks , and Commodities (especially when markets close and open). The space👌🏻 between the candles means that the price has jumped like a rabbit🐰 from one number to the upper☝🏻 different number. Or, like a monkey🐒, it moved from one number to a lower👇🏻 number. I tried to make it funny😊 and straightforward👌🏻, but these gaps that move up or down have different types, like the year's seasons🌈☁️. We have 4️⃣ seasons in a year and also 4️⃣ types of gaps in the charts. According to personal taste😊, I relate the gaps to the year's seasons and, simultaneously, do not forget the case of hunting positions🏹💰. So fasten your seat belts💺 because we want to travel in time🧳⏳ to all the year's seasons with this post🚩 and learn about the different price gaps, which are one of our clues🐾 to trap positions🪤. Let's start with the autumn🍂 season because we are still in it and can understand it better😌. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The name of this type of Exhaustion 🥱 gap. They are seen at the end🔚 of a process, which means that the process may change🔄 at any moment. Just like the autumn🍁 season, it may rain☔ anytime after seeing the clouds🌥️. Another feature of this gap is the increase🆙 in trading volume, so by paying attention👀 to these points and practicing by reviewing the charts📈, you can easily recognize🔎 this gap. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next💁🏻‍♂️ gap is the Breakaway 🏃🏻‍♂️ gap. The breakaway gap is associated with an increase⤴️ in trading volume. This gap occurs when a critical range is broken🤞🏻, representing a strong💪🏻 start🏁 trend or a sign of trend change. Like the blooming🏵️ of some trees🌳 in winter☃️ or the sprouting🌱 of plants from under the snow❄️. Also, This gap is created when the price starts moving from a limited area, like support or resistance ( I'm going to talk about them in the future😉. ) I have to say that the breakaway gap plays a critical👌🏻 role in some of the classic reversal patterns, such as the Head and Shoulders Pattern , Double Top/Bottom Patterns , etc. When The breakaway gap is combined with Classic Reversal Patterns, the breakaway gap adds to these patterns' validity✅. If you want to get acquainted with the most important Classic Reversal Patterns of Technical Analysis , I suggest you read the following post👇. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now it's time for spring🌸🍀, and I'm going to introduce a gap like spring. Spring season is a sign✌🏻 of the continuation of life💐, and this gap in technical analysis shows the continuation of a trend📈. The Continuation gap is also known as a Runaway 🏃🏻‍♂️ gap, occurring in the middle of a downward↙️ or upward↗️ trend. This type of gap creates a kind of confidence for traders to enter. It doesn't occur when the price fluctuates or corrects in a limited area but occurs during a rapid increase or decrease. So, as a result ☑️, if this gap occurs in an upward trend🔺, it indicates the continuation of the upward movement. And when it is created in a downward trend🔻, it indicates the entry of more sellers and further price decline. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now we have reached✌🏻 the last gap🥰. This gap is Common , but I should introduce it as the summer☀️ season. These gaps are very common, And considering the time frame it has, it is expected to fill quickly, which is also called "closing the gap." The filling or closing of the gap means that the price returns🔁 to the same area where the gap was created, like a criminal returning to the crime scene😄. This can be true✅ for gaps as well. Time flies in summer🏝️, and Common and Exhaustion 🥱gaps fill as soon as a blink👁️. You may have heard👂🏻 that gaps are always filled, but this is not permanent🙅🏻‍♂️ and only a strong possibility🤏🏻. For example, Continuation 🏃🏻‍♂️ & Breakaway gaps usually take a long time⌛ to fill. But what if the gap doesn't close🤷🏻‍♂️? Go to any currency pair and examine👀 the recorded data🗄️; You will find that many gaps take a year or more to close. It is interesting😃 to know that the Japanese🎌 have another interpretation of the price gap. They use gaps as continuation and reversal trading patterns (as I said, I'll explain them in future posts🔜😉). It is interesting to know that the combination of gaps can create the Island reversal pattern. The Island pattern consists of two gaps ; One up⬆️ and one down⬇️. We will definitely✅ learn more about these patterns in the following posts🔜, but today we are only focusing on the gaps🧐. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Another thing I want to add➕ is about the Heikin-Ashi charts💹 that we learned about in the previous post🔙. Gaps are filtered❌ in Heikin-Ashi charts. As I said, in this chart, the average is displayed between two✌🏻 consecutive candles; even candlestick patterns are filtered❌. So, the type of chart is also essential👌🏻 for finding gaps. Well, I gave you the basic tips to identify these gaps🤏🏻, and now you can carefully look👀 for them in your charts💹. Practice this information for a bit, as I will be back soon🔜 with an educational post👨🏻‍🏫 on how to trade💰 with these gaps. If you have any questions❓, you can ask me💬. We will get acquainted with new clues🔎 in new posts, so until that day, take care of your knowledge📊 and increase it every day📈, because according to Kofi Anan: Knowledge is power💪🏻, and information is liberating. Education📚 is the beginning of progress in every society🏙️, in every family👨‍👩‍👧‍👧. I hope you become stronger🙌🏻 daily by using your knowledge, and I will also increase your progress by teaching you the introduction. I wish🙌🏻 you happiness, health😍, and success😎.
Education
by pejman_zwin
39
It’s trading wheaty (pretty) high now...Continuing the topic of spreads between related commodities, the Hard Red Winter Wheat – Soft Red Winter Wheat spread is another one trading at an extreme level now. A brief explanation on the different types of wheat we are referring to here: 1) The Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW) is the most widely grown class of wheat. A high protein product, used for breads, some types of Asian noodles and general-purpose flour. 2) The Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) is the third largest class of wheat variety grown in the US, lower protein wheat used in producing confectionary products such as cookies, crackers, and other bread products. Generally, the HRW Wheat Futures (KE) trades at a premium to the SRW Wheat Futures (ZW) due to the higher protein content, however other factors such as production levels and supply demand dynamics may disrupt this spread, as seen from the wide range it has been trading since 1977. Currently, this spread is trading close to 132 cents, with only one instance where it has traded higher, which was in March 2011 when this spread reached an all-time high of 164. We attribute the spread trading at a high now due to the following 2 reasons: 1) The 2022 HRW production is currently the lowest on record since 1963, due to widespread droughts across many of the HRW production regions. 2) The average protein content of the 2022 yield is higher than last year, as well as the average of the past 5 years, resulting in a higher quality crop. As a result, HRW is trading at a premium as supply shortage and a higher quality product pushes the price higher, while SRW sees average production and quality. While it is challenging to assess the production levels and quality for the next season, from a risk reward perspective, we see an opportunity here. The past few spread peaks have been clearly marked out by Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing oversold. With the 10-year average for the spread at 6.3 cents and the RSI now oversold, we lean bearish on the spread. Referencing the average of the past 3 declines at 150 cents and lasting 511 days, we could set out trade levels. If the historical pattern holds this time, a conservative target of 120 cents and a trade length of 500 days points us to the 15-cent level. We see the current set-up as an opportunistic one, with similar episodes in the past pointing lower. CME also has the synthetic KC HRW Wheat-Wheat Intercommodity Spread, which can be used to express the same view and is financially settled. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Sources: www.uswheat.org www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.usda.gov
CBOT:KE1!Education
by inspirante
14
4 tips on surviving Black Swan eventsHey everyone! 👋 Considering the events from the last few days, we thought it would be a good time to re-visit some of the best things you can do, as a trader and as a human being, to insulate yourself from Black Swan events. While a massive crypto exchange going insolvent is only the most recent example of a Black Swan, Black Swans can exist across all different realms - personal, political, environmental, and more. Because of that, we're going to walk you through some tips discussing how you can insure your future against unexpected calamity. 1.) Don't keep all your eggs in the same basket. 🪺 This one is glaringly self-evident following FTX's recent troubles, but spreading your assets out among custody providers is an excellent hedge in case any of them have solvency issues. That way, you're always protected against single-provider risk. Various global governments have tried to take steps to mitigate this (FDIC insurance, financial regulation), but nobody looks out for your interests like you do. Make sure you're in a good spot. Never keeping your assets in one place also applies to asset class and geography. Own a lot of property in a single region? You're suddenly exposed to natural disasters that could hit the area, drastic political changes, and more. Only own a single asset class? Maybe the macro situation just changed against you quickly and it's all worth a lot less than you thought. Diversity is the name of the game, not only from a position perspective, but from a total risk perspective. Where are you vulnerable? 2.) Keep some cash on hand 💵 This one is also self-evident for those who are currently unable to access their funds as a result of the recent turmoil, but keeping cash on hand in order to cover short term expenses is a life saver should you ever need it. To some, getting laid off is a great example of a personal black swan event, and something that could set someone back years in their personal finances. Make sure you're in a position that you're not financially stressed if something abnormal happens to your regular, everyday life. 3.) Carry no liabilities 🏦 While some purchases in our lives often necessitate the use of debt, the strongest-positioned people during a crisis are those who are not beholden to others financially. Considering that most Black Swans often cause all sorts of financial damage to their victims, having liabilities can cause undue additional stress that removes options from people who would otherwise be able to take advantage of the conditions. Also, those with a strong financial position are often those best able to improve their own standing when bad situations strike, buying up assets at prices that would normally never be available. Debt can prevent this level of flexibility, and therefore in order to reduce risk, you shouldn't carry any. 4.) Keep some assets on hand, in person. 🪙 This tip is for broader, more macro-scale black swan events like extended power outages, communications network failures, meteor strikes, war, and other things that would typically fall into that category. But, in a broader regional or global societal collapse, having assets on hand is the best thing you do for yourself. In a situation where you're unable to access the broader societal infrastructure to which we all buy in, having a backup on hand where you live is really the ultimate insurance blanket. Whether this is cash, gold, seeds or food, don't get caught without a plan. We realize this isn't the most fun topic to talk about, but if you follow these tips, it's likely you're much better insulated against all of the disasters and misfortunes the world can throw at you. Stay safe out there! -Team TradingView ❤️❤️
FTX:FTTUSDEducation
by TradingView
57
Charts Museum!!!👨‍🏫Hello, my dear traders🙋🏻. Welcome🌸 to the Charts section📈. My name is Pejman, and this is the Museum🖼️ of Technical Analysis in Tradingview. I'm your tour leader on this visitation, and we will get to know all the Charts well together📊. I'll provide the necessary information about each Chart and answer your questions✅. 🚫So during this tour, please don't eat🍟or touch the charts🙅🏻😄. But it would help if you tried everything you learned at home.👍🏻😉 And if you have any questions, ask me in the comments👨‍💻. In the previous post, I reviewed the life story of technical analysis💹. I said that the best friend of technical analysis was the Chart📉, which didn't separate from technical analysis all these years🤝🏻. On the other hand, I said that fundamental analysis was closely related👥 to the Chart and fundamental information was also present in the charts. So the Chart plays a significant👌🏻 role in the market. (Definitely, the monitor🖥️ plays an essential role in using the computer🧑🏻‍💻 otherwise, we should all look at our motherboards💽😄.) If you're a beginner and want to join us, read the previous post so that you can take the critical steps in learning technical analysis one by one.📃 Now, let's start this post with an example.😊 Each book can contain different information, but the amount of information obtained from each book is different and depends on you.📖 For example, maybe an adult learns valuable information about life from a children's storybook and likes that. Or perhaps a child, despite his age, will relate to a science book about astronomy and like it.👨‍🔬📕 So the amount of information we get depends entirely on us.💁 Regarding the charts, each Chart, like any book, gives us different information, but what you get from each Chart or which type of Chart you are comfortable with is entirely up to you.🙇‍♂️ So, like a good bookseller, I have to tell you all the information about my books so you can use the book that suits you.😉 But ultimately, the choice is yours. The customer is always right. 😂👌 So let's start this tour right away because learning the charts is one of the essential steps in this path.🏃‍♂️ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The information about a price or stock can be displayed using different charts📊, and in the Tradingview platform, it is possible to use the best charts and even customize them🔧⚙️. Charts are traders' working tools, like a painter👩🏻‍🎨 who paints with his tools🖌️🎨. Everyone likes to have the best tools🛠🥇. In the TradingView platform, you can adjust your tools in any way you like👨🏻‍🔧. On the other hand, if you get a Pro+ or Premium account, you can use most of the features for charts.✅️ In the following, we will get to know these features and facilities🙆🏻‍♂️. Before starting the explanation, I used SWOT to easily understand the content in each chart, and I tried to share the information simply and based on the existing facts.💁‍♂️ SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. SWOT analysis facilitates a realistic, fact-based, and data-driven examination of information strengths and weaknesses.📈📉 We will check these characteristics in all the charts. So let's dive into the types of charts, learn about their advantages & disadvantages, and even compare them with each other. 👇 Let's go through the chart types in order of Tradingview's formation. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bars Chart :📊 The Bar Chart is very similar to Candle charts in terms of the information it provides. This chart shows us information using horizontal and vertical lines. Bar Charts give us four types of information about an asset. This information is called OHLC , in which O means the Opening price, H is the Highest price, L signifies the Lowest price and C represents the Closing price of a bar in a time frame.💵 Each vertical line represents price changes over a time frame. The horizontal lines on the left indicate the bar's opening price, and the horizontal line attached to the bar on the right side shows the closing price of that bar.➡️ Also, other information is obtained by continuing the vertical lines from above and below. When a bar has an extra line at its bottom, that means the end of this line represents the bar's lowest price. The upper line also represents the highest price in that time frame. Finally, I want to say that bars charts and candles chart may seem a bit complicated, but they can reduce our trading mistakes with the information they provide.🙅‍♂️ For sure, choosing which type of chart you can trade better with is entirely up to you. In the Tradingview platform, you can change the colors of the bars and customize your chart. 🔁 I have to say that this option is not available on some platforms, and if you can’t see the colors & the chart is only seen in black, using this chart will be a bit confusing.😟 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Candles Chart :🕯 You might have seen the Candles chart or heard their name. This type of chart has become the most popular among traders. What do you consider is the cause of the popularity of this type of chart? Now that it's time for the most popular chart among traders let me talk more about the advantages and disadvantages of this chart. However, certain things about this chart have made it the most popular chart. Candles are like the scoreboard of a stadium, which shows the result of the match between buyers and sellers in a time frame. Candles have a body & a wick like a real candle, and these wicks show the same highest and lowest price in a time frame. The body of the candle also indicates price changes. If the color of a candle is red, the price has decreased from the time of opening to closing. And on the contrary, if the candle is green, the price closed higher than when it was opened. In my opinion, this type of price display has a better visual effect. It can be an essential reference for making trading decisions, guessing the next candlestick, continuing a trend, or finding the reversal trend. Candlesticks can form patterns alone or in pairs that help us predict the subsequent movements of the chart. Candlestick patterns are either a continuation of a trend or reversal patterns, which generally have more number and variety and are even more helpful. If you need to become more familiar with reversal candlestick patterns, check out the post below. Also, most indicators work best with candle charts. If indicators are relevant to a particular trading system, often candlestick charts are required. Candlestick charts display who controls a market or market sentiment over a given time frame. Through various candlestick patterns and formations, such as the Doji Patterns, etc. A trader can assess the overall bias over a specific time horizon. Overall, Japanese candlesticks are clear, simple, and easy to describe. But definitely, there are some disadvantages. One of these disadvantages is Apophenia(A tendency to relate unrelated things to each other). It is a mental bias to see patterns in things that are accidental. Our brains want to see patterns, and so they do. We are also looking for meaning, so we find meaning in meaningless things. By combining technical analysis, we see patterns in random data and attach importance where there is none to said data. Candlestick charts are great for this trap. When I was a beginner and couldn't control my emotions, I often saw trends the way I wanted to & this was far away from logic. You can escape these emotional traps by practicing and studying to decide with logic and thinking. Don't worry; as I said, you can count on my help because we will travel together on the technical analysis training road. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hollow Candles Chart : This chart looks very similar to the Candles chart, but it may look a little more complicated, and as a beginner, you may need help understanding the meaning of these candles at first glance. The system and function of candlesticks & hollow candles are entirely the same, and the difference between them is their appearance. But still, I will write some points about this chart. This chart shows OHLC the same as Candles and Bar charts, but on some platforms, it may be seen in colors other than the default colors (green and red - black and white). But in general, this chart will show the price fluctuations entirely, and because of the similarity to the candle chart, it is less used. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Column Chart : As you can see, this chart consists of colored rows. For example, the green row indicates a price increase, and the red row shows a decrease. It may give us incomplete information for trading, but if you want to compare statistics with each other or get information quickly and with a simple glance, these charts are suitable. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Line Chart : I want to examine the Line chart, which is the simplest type of Chart.➡️ A line chart consists of points connected by a line, and these points only represent the final price ( closing price ) of a currency or share. This Chart can be suitable for comparing the information with each other at a superficial glance because it doesn't have any extra data. Apply two line charts on top of each other and see correlations between different assets. Line charts are less used for trading; Because a line chart consists of points connected by a line, and these points indicate the closed price in a time frame and give us less information. There are some other charts similar to line charts that are suitable for comparing information, which I will discuss below. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Area Chart : This Chart shows the changes in one or more sets of data and can be checked with other variables, but usually, the second variable is time, and the price is measured relative to time. This Chart will be suitable for comparing two or more charts. I put the advantages and disadvantages of this chart in the picture like other charts. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Baseline Chart : You may have noticed the similarities and differences between this chart and the Line and Area charts. The Baseline chart looks similar to the above charts but with different levels; it provides us with more information than these two charts. By default, there is a hypothetical line, as the average price line in the middle of this chart. When the area is green, the price is above the average level, and if the area is red, the stock or currency is traded below the average price level. You can adjust the baseline level. This level has a comparative aspect, and this type of chart is very suitable for checking the market's fluctuations. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- High-Low Chart : This chart provides us with more information than the line and area chart. But this chart is not complete and does not show the opening or closing price & it only expresses the price changes from the lowest to the highest amount in a time frame. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Heikin Ashi Chart : The Heiken Ashi chart is well-known among traders, like the candles chart, and was first used in Japan. By filtering price fluctuations and averaging between two consecutive candles, this Chart makes it easier to identify trends and helps traders avoid market excitement. Take a look at the below chart to get to know this type of chart better. I have to say that this chart type is helpful in the stock market and commodity market, which is associated with more gaps because they determine the price direction without gaps. So if you feel it can be useful for you, test this chart along with your other strategies. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Renko Chart : This type of chart does not pay attention to time, so the time axis is not present in its structure. This chart consists of sections called bricks or blocks, for which the amount of price change is determined, and the minor changes are not taken into account. Each block shows a price move covering a user-defined number from the recent close. If the user selects ten numbers, each block will represent a ten-number movement in either direction. New blocks will only form when the price moves by the set amount of numbers. However, these can be tricky because more price movement can happen than expected. The Renko chart is one of the oldest and most famous Japanese charts. You can use this chart any time frame if you have a Pro + or Premium account on the Tradingview platform. Otherwise, you can only have this chart in the daily time frame. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Line Breaks Chart : These charts are excellent indicators of momentum. Each bar is called a "line," A new line will form if the new closing price is higher than the current close or the new close is lower than the last 3 bars. You can change this number to any number of lines in the past. But the most popular number among traders is "three lines in the past." For this reason, this chart is also known as three broken lines. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kagi Chart : Now it's the turn of a fancy line chart with a formula. The Kagi chart works established on price and discounts the time axis. Think of it as someone's finger showing you, "We reached -this- high & then -this low” 😂. Kagi lines do not reverse unless the price changes the minimum amount. However, what defines what gets plotted is if the price moves by more than a specified percentage from the most recent close. The color of the lines will change based on new highs and lows. If the new high is higher than the previous high, the color changes to green & if the new high is lower than the previous one, it would be red, signaling weakness in price. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Point & Figure Chart : Point and Figure charts were initially developed as a price recording system and later became technical analysis charts. Before computers entered the world of Technical Analysis, this chart was widely used. Still, fewer people use it these days due to the complexity of understanding this chart and the limited information it provides. These charts are like Renko blocks. The X's denote bullish moves, and the O's designate bearish moves by a set number. All the rules involved in Renko blocks apply here; however, these charts look additional. These simple charts focus only on significant price movements and completely filter out noises (minor price movements). The unique aspect of these charts is that, unlike Candles, Line, and Bar charts, the time isn't directly considered in the chart. Sometimes we can obtain good results and price targets from these charts, which are sometimes very special and significant. So if you are curious to learn point & figure charts do more research (remember to practice a lot😊. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Range Chart : The last chart of this museum is another chart related to the price movement. This chart may look like a bar chart, but I have to say that it's not. It contains some of the information that the bar chart had. If you add this chart, you will see that it has a different time frame than other charts. 100 ranges; As the name indicates, it includes 100 of the latest price movements you can see in different time frames. But, it has more than 100 ranges, and you can determine the number of these movements, which varies from 1 to 1000.
Education
by pejman_zwin
41
How To Know When To Quit (Part 1/2)Hello traders, All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article. I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them. Splitting this article in 2 parts because it’s dense and I don’t want to lose people who might think “too much text I won’t read” Let’s talk about: – Cognitive biases – Decision-making 1. Be at ease with a bad outcome Focus on the decision-making process instead. Think in probability and play to the best of your hand. Don’t dwell on a bad outcome if the process and decision-making were sound. You have no control over outcomes when luck is involved. Embrace uncertainty. Understand that you have to get down to what do I have control over, and what don’t I have control over. 
And I have to accept the tremendous influence of luck, I have to accept the fact that I’m having to make these very high-stakes decisions without being able to accurately predict where the candles are going. 2. Advice from Eric Seidel: Do not dwell on unlucky events Eric Seidel is a 9-time world series of poker bracelet winner who made $40 million. By all means, discuss what could have been done better. If you played to the best of your "cards", that’s all that matters. He goes, “I don’t want to hear about it if there’s not a question. I don’t care that you got unlucky. I get unlucky too. And I have to deal with losing with two jacks against two nines all the time also. I certainly don’t want to take on your emotional trash about it myself. And what’s the point of talking about it? You made a great call and lost, who cares? Would you have changed anything about what you did? Do you think you got the read wrong? It sounds to me like you did everything right. So why are we even talking about this? I mean this is the thing, if it really was just bad luck, who cares? This is about embracing that uncertainty, right?” 3. All decisions are probabilistic And we make these probabilistic decisions all the time. Consciously or subconsciously. Whether its choosing your partner or the route you are taking to work. You’re making a forecast. The moment we make it explicit, we start to create feedback loops we can learn from. Even if you don’t think you’re doing it explicitly, literally every single decision you make is probabilistic, because it’s a forecast. 
It’s a forecast made under conditions where you don’t have all the facts. 
You generally know very little in comparison to all there is to be known. 
We have to reject the idea that if you’re not doing it explicitly, that you aren’t thinking probabilistically because every decision is a probabilistic decision just by its nature because the world is probabilistic, that is how we decide. Now the act of trying to make these things explicit will make you better at it, because what it will start to do is allow you to create good feedback loops. 4. Don’t trade if you don’t have an edge And we are very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have an edge. Set up structures, write down your thesis. What new information will break your thesis? When should you quit? I think we’re very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have a rational reason, that we have an edge. And I think that that’s particularly so when we’re in a situation where the thesis would affirm other things that we already believe about the world. I think it’s particularly so when we’re already in the investment/trade. So one of the things that we need to do is set up structures around us that will allow us, first of all, to be better at those, are we really being rational and starting… but more importantly, because the starting decision is always uncertain, is to say, as we discover new information after we’ve started, are we stopping, right? Are we figuring out when we should stop? Because it turns out that we’re very, very dense when it comes to actually paying attention to the signals after we’ve started something that we ought to stop it. And that’s where we get particularly irrational. Quotes of the day “Pain is temporary. Quitting lasts forever.” ― Lance Armstrong “The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance“ ― Ed Seykota "Confidence is not “I will profit on this trade.” Confidence is “I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade." ― Yvan Byeajee I'll post the second part tomorrow I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :) Thank you for reading Dave
Education
by Daveatt
32
How to Blow Your Account | Step-By-Step Guide 💰 to 🪙 Hey traders, In this article, we will discuss the set of actions, habits and beliefs that will blow your account. 1. Trades are based on emotional decisions Behind each trading position must be a reason. The entry reason of a professional trader is based on a very strict and objective conditions, while an unprofitable trader follows emotions and intuition. 2. Stop loss placement is for losers A lot of traders consistently neglect placing a stop loss. Remember, just one single trade without that may blow your entire account. 3. Set unrealistic goals There is a common misconception concerning trading: that the equity size is not proportional to potential gains. Such a reasoning leads to various false conclusions. One who is trading with 100$ account and expecting to buy lambo, will inevitably blow the account. 4. No time for trade journaling Why to even bother yourself with trade journaling?! It is just waste of time. Remember, that trading journal is one of that best tools for learning. Constantly assessing your past decisions, you identify the flaws of your strategy and fix that, increasing your future gains. 5. Trading plan is for fools I know a lot of traders who trade without a plan. Remember, that the trading plan is your roadmap. Without that, it is impossible to become a consistently profitable trader. 6. Blindly following other's view While you are learning how to trade, your task is to learn the reasoning behind the trades of the pro's in the industry. Following them without reflections, you are not learning and, moreover, you are becoming dependent. Losing, you put the responsibility on their shoulders instead of yours. Such an approach will lead you to failure. Learn to become responsible in your trading decisions and execute your own analysis before you follow any other trader. 7. Who needs economic data As we discussed many times, fundamentals are the driver of the market. Neglecting the trends and global situation, not studying the news, you will unavoidably be fooled by the market. 8. Indicators are the magic pill I know a lot of traders, who spend thousands of dollars looking for a magic indicator - the instrument that will make tons of money. The fact is that indicators are just a tool in your toolbox. Its goal is to provide some minor additional clues to your analysis. Overestimating the importance of indicators, you will most likely blow your account. 9. Not investing in education Many traders are spending their money not on education but on fancy tools, signal services, robots and indicators. However, the fact is that only knowledge gives freedom, only skills can make you independent. 10. Back testing is pointless Trying different strategies, many traders intentionally skip the back testing part. Remember, that back testing is the most proven way to verify the efficiency of a strategy, allowing you to save time and money simultaneously. 11. Paper trading does not make any sense Same thing with paper trading. For some reason, the majority of the traders skip demo trading, quickly opening a real account. However, the fact is that demo trading is the best, risk-free tool for learning how the market works. Unfortunately, these 11 fallacies and misconceptions are very common. Analyze your trading and make sure that you are not making these classic mistakes. What would you add in that list? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
55
10 Common Lies and Misconceptions About Trading 🥺🤮1. People are born traders. While it is true that certain personal characteristics make it easier to trade, no one is born a trader. One of the main themes of the Market Wizards books written by Jack Schwager is that almost none of the market wizards was successful from the start. They all worked hard at it. 2. You have to have a high IQ to trade. Just not true. In some ways, an above average IQ may be a hindrance. Trading is a human performance activity where strong intellectual abilities are unnecessary. 3. Top traders are successful because they have the "right trading personality." There is no such thing as the "right trading personality." Researches have been unable to find a strong correlation between personality type and trading success. It is important, however, to understand your personal characteristics and how they may help and hinder your trading. 4. Trading is easy. It sure looks that way, doesn't it? Just draw a few lines on the chart, watch your indicators, and follow the price bars. The truth is that trading is a difficult business to master. It involves different skill sets and abilities from what are needed in most other professions and careers. The trader must understand his or her personal strengths and limitations and develop specific skills to deal with the mental and emotional demands of trading. The later skills are the most difficult to develop and the most overlooked. 5. You must be tough, hard charging, and fearless to be successful. That's more media hype than anything else. It glorifies a strong ego, which is a detriment in trading. The most successful traders I know quietly do their research, study the charts, and patiently wait for the right moment. They strive to keep their ego out of their trading. 6. You must trade without emotions. If you are human, that's impossible. More importantly, when you understand your emotions you will realize they are assets, not liabilities. The real keys are: To be aware of how your emotions interact with and influence your trading, and To develop the skills needed to trade with them. 7. Top traders are usually right about the market. Top traders have many, many scratch and losing trades. Top traders are at the top because they exercise good risk control, limit the amount of loss from any given trade, and have developed a psychological edge that allows them to be unfazed by small losing trades. Most of their trading consists of modest profits and very small losses. When conditions are right, they step up size and let the profitable trades run. 8. Paper trading is useless - it's not a real trade without money behind it. If you aren't paper trading,you are doing yourself a disservice. You should always be paper trading your trading ideas. Why limit your education and experience by the amount of capital you have? Paper trading keeps you sharp ; you learn the conditions under which your trading ideas work best. Where else can you get such vital education at so little cost? 9. Master the technical skills and you will be successful. This is where most traders spend the vast majority of their time, but it's only part of the picture. You also have to learn important performance skills. Traders should spend as much-if not more-time learning to develop their psychological edge as they do in developing their technical trading edge. 10. Trading is stressful. It certainly can be stressful, and it certainly is stressful for many. It doesn't have to be. Successful traders have a certain mindset. They put little importance on any given trade. Their focus is on the long haul. They know that if they attend to the aspects of trading that are within their control (i.e., trade selection, entry, risk control, and trade management) the profits will take care of themselves. source: DailyFX
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Hsan_BenAhmed
46