📈 4 Common Bullish Patterns🟢 RISING THREE
"Rising three methods" is a bullish continuation candlestick pattern that occurs in an uptrend and whose conclusion sees a resumption of that trend.
This can be contrasted with a falling three method. The first bar of the pattern is a bullish candlestick with a large real body within a well-defined uptrend.
🟢 FALLING WEDGE
The falling wedge pattern occurs when the asset’s price is moving in an overall bullish trend before the price action corrects lower.
Within this pull back, two converging trend lines are drawn. The consolidation part ends when the price action bursts through the upper trend line, or wedge’s resistance.
🟢 BULL PENNANT
A pennant is a type of continuation pattern formed when there is a large movement in a security, known as the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trend line.
Pennants, which are similar to flags in terms of structure, have converging trend lines during their consolidation period and last from one to three weeks.
🟢 ASCENDING TRIANGLE
An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line
to be drawn along the swing highs and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle.
Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside
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Valuation is truth: stocks vs gold and stocks + goldWe live in a dollar matrix, a world we can feel but have trouble understanding.
We have learned that things go up over time, but we don't know why.
Why do things go up and sometimes also go down.
Valuation is a lie detector.
We should seek truth.
Stocks dont always go straight up.
Gold is just scare shiny rock.
Dollars are debt instruments and promises for money.
GLD PSLV GOLD CBOE:SPX SP:SPX TVC:SPX FRED:CPIAUCSL FRED:M2SL FRED:PCE FRED:GDP
Best investing advice to myself if the financial panic comesIve seen this movie before, and I love thats its playing again. The economy goes through cycles and its rhyming like other times. Its never the same, lets be clear about that. But expensive things get cheaper when the economy slows down because people will need their money for the hard times that may come. Its that simple.
Learning to read financial statements and metrics is like learning your ABCs but for investing. Trading off a chart is good, but learning what is behind the chart will help in uncertainty. "deep faith eliminates fear". The chart wont tell you if a company is losing money or if there are more assets than the marketcap is reflecting.
Buy decade growers for the best deal you can, and let them work. Best advice to myself. see you in 20 years.
Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 5Visualizing Business and Market Cycles Through Market Momentum 5: Conclusions:
In installments 1 - 4 we built a market momentum matrix and plotted the information onto a stylized business cycle. In this installment we will make final observations and thoughts around the current cycle.
Capital flows into and out of commodities, sectors and equities have historically provided a direct reflection of the markets view of the business cycle. But, over the last two decades the tsunami of fiscal and monetary liquidity distorted business and market cycles. As the liquidity lifted all asset classes analysis that depended upon normal intermarket relationships became less useful. Now that the reemergence of inflation as a threat is likely to constrain central banks. In other words, markets will again become properly anticipatory to the business cycle.
As a reminder, this is the distilled version of the momentum matrix we built in the first 3 installments.
This is the momentum stylized market and economic cycle sine curves. If markets (dark blue curve) are correctly anticipating the business cycle (grey curve) the business cycle is moderatly past peak, and should be expected to steadily deteriorate over coming quarters.
Observations:
The matrix is entirely consistent with an weakening business cycle that has yet to trough. Over the last two years rising short and long rates led the cycle lower. Equities, responding to higher rates, turned lower this year and both industrial and aggricultural commodities are now weakening as economic demand wanes. The outlier is the Dollar. It has benefited from global flight to quality, carry and the aggresiveness of our central bank verses other central banks. But, of the asset classes, the Dollars relationship to the business cycle is the least consistent.
Rates clearly led this cycle lower and it is likely that they will lead the next cycle higher. It is important to note that short rates have risen more than long rates. This has created the type of highly reliable yield curve inversion that signals a coming recession. I believe that the inversion represents a "get ready" warning. A rapid reversal in which short rates fall more quickly than long rates, will be the signal that the reccession is beginning. Once the reccession matures, falling rates, will eventually result in better equities, higher commodities, and an improving business' cycle. Rapidly falling rates should be viewed as a signal that the worst of equity declines is likely in the past.
Equities typically trough before the low point of the economic cycle. As the recession matures, technical lows in equity charts should offer important macro entry points.
As the flight to quality that occurred in 2022 runs its course and the economic cycle becomes more normal the DX will begin influencing commodities again. The Dollar and commodities TEND to trend in opposite directions but the Dollars relationship to other asset classes and the cycle is highly variable.
Eventually markets will realize that the new macro backdrop is one of persistent inflation rather than persistent deflation. Central banks will be more focused on fighting inflation and liquidity, except during episodes of explicit systemic risk, will be far more constrained. As a result, the rates/commodity/equity link will become strong again. Generally speaking, more frequent periods of higher inflation will result in higher yields, a slowing economy, lower commodities, lower earnings and lower equities.
A note on the bond — equity relationship:
The relationship changes over time depending upon the market’s preoccupation with inflation or deflation. Prior to 1997 a fall in yields was bullish for equity as yields were declining in reaction to a falling inflation rate. After the inflation of the 70s, bonds and equity entered simultaneous bull markets as the deflationary forces generated by globalization and technological advance allowed Central banks to become more accommodative without fear of igniting inflaiton. In a deflationary environment, bonds rise when equities fall and act as a hedge to equities. In an inflationary environment both stock and bond prices eventually decline. I suspect that the inflation regime has changed.
Conclusion: 1) The business cycle is likely to weaken significantly over coming months. 2) A rapid decline in rates accompanied by a sharply steeper curve, will likely mark the actual beginning of the recession. 3) The recession itself should produce an excellent entry macro entry point for equity. 4) Man plans, god laughs. 5) Happy New Year to all!
And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum.
Good Trading:
Stewart Taylor, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
Taylor Financial Communications
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Educational Options Video Strangle v Capped Strangle Jade LizardConceptual view of how to trade non directional or semi directionally using strangles and capped strangles, also known as Jade Lizard option spreads.
Non directional option trades attempt to benefit from sideways markets or markets where options are are pricing more implied movement than is realized in the underlying asset.
Combing a vertical on top with a cash secured put on bottom, creates a range trade. Selling on both sides for credits helps either reduce the cost of buying shares or creates income while the stock trades sideways without direction.
DIA SPX QQQ VIX NYSE:PLTR SNAP
The Top 10 Trades of 2022 🥳Hey everyone! 👋
This week, we're counting down the top 10 trades from a tumultuous 2022. In what was a historic bear market in almost all global asset classes - stocks, crypto, bonds, and just about everything else was down - the majority of these trades are on the short side.
Energy was one of the few sectors that actually had a good year. Another outperformer was the US Dollar. Let’s recap it all below including charts you have to see, stats about each trade, and key takeaways heading into 2023.
1.) Short Luna
When UST - the flawed stablecoin at the center of the Terra ecosystem - depegged in May this year, it led to a $60 billion wipe out and the complete collapse of one of the largest hedge funds in the crypto space: 3 Arrows Capital. Luna, the Layer 1 token at the center of the ecosystem ended up dropping from $86 to ~$0 in just under a week. This event had contagion effects that affected the whole industry, and led to hundreds of high profile bankruptcies, insolvencies, suspended withdrawals, and more.
CHART:
2.) Long ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil and other major oil companies benefited from higher oil prices in 2022, as chronic global underinvestment in extraction & processing facilities in the last few years led to a spike in prices as post-pandemic demand for energy recovered more quickly than many expected. The sanctions on Russia earlier this year have also exacerbated global supply shortages and led to soaring profits for ExxonMobil and its peers.
CHART:
3.) Long U.S. Dollars
The dollar saw one of its strongest years ever as the Fed was the first major central bank to begin tackling the pesky problem of persistent inflation. As the federal funds rate was hiked over the course of 2022, USD interest rates became more and more attractive vs. global counterparts, leading to a massive shift in global capital, and massive outperformance for USD holders.
USD/JPY CHART #1:
EUR/USD CHART #2:
GBP/USD CHART #3:
4.) Short FTT
FTT investors have had a rough year. Throughout most of 2022, the general crypto malaise hurt the token as reduced trading volumes and profits from FTX led to lower buy-and-burn numbers. Then, in early November, whispers began that FTX wouldn’t be able to back withdrawals for users. Over the course of the next week and a half, FTT dropped over 90% as it became clear that FTX had loaned out user deposits to other SBF related ventures, using FTT (its own token) to backstop user funds. As the price fell, the house of cards came tumbling down, rendering FTT ostensibly worthless.
CHART:
5.) Short ARKK
As monetary tightening continued throughout 2022, many growth stocks got hit as the present value of their future profits shrank inversely with increasing risk-free interest rates. This was doubly true for high growth companies that had no profits to speak of, like many of the holdings found within Cathie Wood’s flagship ARKK Innovation ETF. Her fund, famous for its early bet on Tesla and massive outperformance in 2020 and 2021, is currently sitting down over 60% on the year.
CHART:
6.) Long Natural Gas
Natural Gas has seen a similar supply and demand situation to oil, which was discussed earlier. Heightened demand coupled with stable supply led to gains for the commodity early in the year. However, with the advent of conflict in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, shortages, especially in Europe, led to skyrocketing prices as members of the EU scrambled to figure out how they were going to provide energy to their citizens in the coming winter. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline shutdown and explosion also put further stress on supplies.
CHART:
7.) Short Meta
Meta, formerly known as Facebook, has had a transformational year. Late in 2021 the company announced its rebrand to Meta, meant to underscore its business shift to Augmented and Virtual Reality. This new focus meant billions of dollars into R&D, and an uphill fight convincing the public that the Metaverse really is the next big thing. Investors haven’t taken the news well, dumping the stock from more than $300 per share, to, at its lows, $88. Also hurting performance; declining user numbers for its legacy products, and rising interest rates.
CHART:
8.) Short Treasuries / Long Yield
As the Fed continued to raise rates in 2022, government bond yields rose in kind. And, as bond yields rise, bond prices fall. TLT, one of the biggest ETFs for long-dated government bonds, is down more than 28% on the year so far, underscoring one of the worst years for bonds on record.
2 YEAR RATES CHART:
TLT CHART:
9.) Short Coinbase
Coinbase IPO’d in April of 2021 at around $380 a share, making the premiere U.S.-based crypto exchange one of the most valuable financial companies in the world. Fast forward to 2022, and it’s been a completely different story. Crypto’s total market cap topped in November of 2021 as the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates, and 2022 has been nothing short of disastrous for the asset class. The biggest crypto assets - Bitcoin and Ethereum - are sitting down more than 60% on the year, and the high trading volumes that defined the speculative frenzy in 2021 are nowhere to be seen. Not to mention the Luna & FTX blowups which had far reaching consequences across the ecosystem. Coinbase is still kicking, but with a stock that’s down more than 80% on the year.
CHART:
10.) Short Beyond Meat
Shares in Beyond Meat had a rough 2022, sitting down nearly 80% on the year. The fake meat behemoth’s losses have widened, and investors have questioned the basic unit economics of the company. As a result, the big brand’s market cap has suffered.
CHART:
And there you have it! The top 10 trades from this crazy and historical year. Did you manage to join in on any of these? Think we missed any? Let us know below in the comments.
Here's to a healthy, happy, prosperous 2023!
- Team TradingView ❤️❤️❤️
History & Halving of Bitcoin from 2009 to 2022● October 31, 2008, Nakamoto Satoshi, known as the developer of Bitcoin, published a paper called Bitcoin: P2P Electronic Money System on the Internet.
● January 3, 2009, the first open-source Bitcoin client was created. Satoshi Nakamoto obtained 50 BTC through the first mining. This is commonly referred to as the Genesis Block
● May 22, 2010, Rogramer Laszlo Hanyetz delivered two pizzas of Papa Jones and paid for them in 10,000 bitcoins
● August 22, 2010, Bitcoin's first and last technical error occurred
● April 18, 2011, Namecoin, the world's first altcoin, appeared.
● September 27, 2012, the Bitcoin Foundation was formed.
● December 6, 2012, the first Bitcoin exchange in Europe obtained a banking license.
● October 29, 2013, the first Bitcoin ATM was installed in Vancouver, Canada.
● Vitalik Buterin Ethereum was first founded in 2014
● February 26, 2014, Mount Gox (www.mtgox.com), the second largest Bitcoin exchange, was closed.
● January 6, 2015, Europe's third-largest bitstamp on the Bitcoin exchange revealed that its wallet had been stolen through hacking.
● December 2017, $19764 achieves a new reporting point
● In November 2018, a bill banning Chinese cryptocurrency mining and exchanges was issued
● It has been about 487 days since February 21, 2018, when $11,000 was reached on June 22, 2019.
● Bitcoin was designated as the world's first legal currency in El Salvador on June 9, 2021.
● April 14, 2021 achieved the highest point in Bitcoin history of 68944$
● February 24, 2022: Ukraine's Russian War breaks out
● May 2022 Luna and FTX incident occurred
THE PROCESSTHE PROCESS
1. Look at the Market State - The Market State column shows the state for all three broad market indices (Green = Bull Uptrend, Light Green = Bull Pullback, Yellow = Bear Rally, Red = Bear Downtrend)
2. What bucket of Volatility - The Market Vol Levels column tells you what level of volatility we are in currently. (Green under 20 = Trending Market, Yellow between 20-30 = Choppy Market, Red > 30 = Whipsaw Market with large moves usually to the downside. You can look to buy and hold assets for longer during Green Markets. In yellow markets you need to be more active and be willing to accept small gains. Red markets are a time to be very conservative and to consider investing in inverse ETFs and/or selling short if you can.
3. SP500 Volatility Structure - The SP500 VIX Volatility column shows a shorter timeframe. A favorable environment has numbers rising as you go down the column. If the first number in the column is higher than the third number in the column , that is a sign there is stress in the overall market to the downside
4. What to buy - keep and open mind and consider all asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities and currencies). Certain asset classes perform better than others in different market environments. If possible diversify between multiple asset classes if the data shows multiple asset classes are performing well. If you are only buying individual stocks, do the same and consider buying stocks in multiple sectors.
5. When to buy - Look to buy strength on pullbacks and sell weakness on rallies. Wait for reversals in price either back to the upside for longs or back to the downside for shorts. This means when price reverses and goes above the previous days high for longs, or reverses and goes below the previous days low for shorts.
6. How much to buy - Position sizing is one of the most critical aspects for long term success. There are multiple ways to position size. We prefer to size based upon risk and volatility. For example, we don't like to risk any more than .5% of our account on any position enter. Our risk per position is determined by the volatility of the asset. The formula looks like this...Account Size * .05 = Total Risk per position. Total Risk / (Entry Price - Stop Price) = Number of Shares we can purchase. Our stop price at entry is always 3 * ATR. The ATR of each asset is in the table in the first column to the right of the 15-period history. This must be kept consistent with all new positions and your feelings about one trade vs another should not factor into your sizing decision.
7. How to buy - This is a little of personal preference. Once you determine the size of the position, some people buy the whole position at once. Others enter in pieces. We prefer to enter in pieces and enter 50% of our position first, a second tranche of 25% quickly once the position moves in our favor, and then the last 25% tranche shortly after again if the position is profitable. If we enter any of the first two tranches and the position goes against us, we will not enter the remaining tranche(s) unless the position once again becomes profitable.
8. Managing the position - Positions should be looked at daily. Alerts can be used to alert you if something dramatic is happening during the day. If price moves in your favor initially you should move your stop up with it keeping it 3*ATRs below the current price if you are long and vice versa if you are short. Never move it lower if the price pulls back for longs or higher for shorts. Once the position moves 3 ATRs above your entry price your stop will be at breakeven. From this point on it is good practice to take some of the position off, taking some profits off the table and lowering your risk of giving all your profit back. Particularly if we are in a Choppy Market. When you are in the position, you should be monitoring the table to see any signs of potential weakness (red colors).
Advanced Bull Flag ConceptsHave you ever wondered why price action sometimes forms a bull flag pattern?
Have you ever wondered if there is a way to predict whether a bull flag will break out before it actually does so?
In this post, I will try to address these questions by presenting a couple of theories about the nature of bull flags.
Bull Flag Theories
(1) The flag structure of a bull flag tends to form along Fibonacci levels, with the ideal flag proportion being an approximated golden ratio to the flagpole; and
(2) Fibonacci and regression analyses can provide useful insight into whether price will successfully break out of its bull flag pattern, sometimes long before price even attempts to do so.
I will try my best to clearly explain both theories in detail below.
Note: Although this analysis is also generally true for bull pennants, bear flags, and bear pennants, to keep things simple I will focus solely on bull flags. Additionally, this analysis is generally true across timeframes.
Part I - The Basics of a Bull Flag
First, let's begin with the basics. As shown in the image below, bull flags form when an asset is in a strong uptrend. The uptrend forms the flagpole of the bull flag structure.
The flag structure forms when price consolidates, usually in a falling trend. This consolidation phase is often characterized by price oscillators rotating back down while the price retraces only a small part of its prior upward move.
From a market psychology perspective, bull flags often form when most market participants who bought the asset continue to hold it expecting the uptrend to resume, while only a minority of market participants sell (or short the asset) as its price corrects downward. The bull flag pattern is a continuation pattern because it reflects the market's general expectation that price will eventually resume its upward move.
Once the price definitively breaks above the upper channel of the flag (often with strong momentum and high volume), the bull flag pattern is validated. Upon breakout, the expected move up is equal to the vertical height of the flagpole.
Part II - The flag structure of a bull flag tends to form along Fibonacci levels, with the ideal flag proportion being an approximated golden ratio to the flagpole
Here's where things begin to get interesting. Below is the golden ratio.
Two quantities, a and b (where a > b ), form the golden ratio if their ratio is the same as the ratio of their sum to the larger of the two quantities. (See the equation below)
The equation above shows the Greek letter phi which denotes the golden ratio. Phi is equivalent to a/b when such ratio is also equivalent to (a + b)/a.
Although bull flags can take various forms, it is my hypothesis, based on chart analysis and research, that the most perfectly structured bull flags (ones that also have the highest probability of successful breakouts) occur when the flag forms a golden ratio to the flagpole.
Mathematically, this means that the vertical height of the flagpole is equivalent to (a + b) and the vertical height (i.e. the width) of the flag is equivalent to b. This is also to say that price retraces down to the 0.382 Fibonacci level as measured by applying Fibonacci retracement levels along the flagpole (or to the 0.618 point on the vertical height of the flagpole if one measures from the bottom to top).
I realize that this can be quite confusing, so let’s walk through some visualizations.
Let's first visualize this hypothesis using the golden rectangle. Below is an image of the golden rectangle. A golden rectangle is composed of a square (with sides equal to a) and a smaller golden rectangle (with width equal to b and length equal to a).
Now let's rotate the golden rectangle to better visualize the hypothesized flag pattern.
The bull flag is hypothetically an approximation of the golden rectangle, whereby the width of the flag is in a golden ratio approximation to the length of the flagpole.
In the illustration below, there are multiple bull flags contained within a Fibonacci spiral. The spiral is made up of golden rectangles, with each larger golden rectangle containing a smaller golden rectangle inside it. The smaller golden rectangle is the flag structure, and the length of the larger golden rectangle is the flagpole.
One can think of the Fibonacci spiral and the golden rectangles as a series of bull flags that build on top of each other in a repeating pattern. In this diagram, price is represented by the increasing length of the sides of each golden rectangle. In other words, the price on a chart can be seen as spiraling higher after each bull flag breakout.
Of course, not all bull flags form a structure that approximates the golden ratio, but it is my belief that in forming a bull flag, price action is aspiring to achieve as close of a golden ratio approximation as it can. I believe that the bull flags that best approximate the golden ratio structure also present the highest probability for a successful break out.
To learn more about Fibonacci spirals, including the golden spiral that Fibonacci spirals approximate, you can check out this Wikipedia article: en.wikipedia.org
Part III - Fibonacci and regression analyses can provide useful insight into whether price will successfully break out of its bull flag pattern, sometimes long before price even attempts to do so.
To see how Fibonacci levels and regression analysis can give insight into whether a bull flag will break out or break down before it does so, let's consider an example.
Let’s consider the massive bull flag that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed in 2021.
In 2021, the monthly chart of IWM formed what appeared to be a bull flag, as shown below.
Now let's see why Fibonacci analysis and regression analysis were warning that this bull flag was not likely to break out successfully.
First, IWM's price did not retrace to a Fibonacci level before attempting a breakout (when using the pole as the Fibonacci retracement reference point). In the chart below, we see that price tried to break out, without even so much as retracing down to the highest Fibonacci retracement level: $196.71. By not undergoing Fibonacci retracement, price did not give its oscillators the opportunity to rotate back down fully. Instead, price remained overextended at the time it attempted to break out.
Now let's look at regression analysis. Below is a log-linear regression channel that contains IWM's entire price history. As noted in my prior posts, a regression channel simply indicates how far above or below the mean (or average) price an asset's current price is trading. In the regression channel above, the red line is the mean price, the upper channel line is 2 standard deviations above the mean, and the lower channel line is 2 standard deviations below the mean.
A successful breakout of the bull flag would have taken IWM's price way above its regression channel, to a level that is too many standard deviations above its mean price for us not to question the probability of the breakout’s success. Achieving the full measured move up would have been extremely unlikely, assuming that the regression channel is valid and that price tends to revert back to its mean over time. What was more likely than a breakout was a breakdown, and a reversion back to the mean, which is what ended up happening with IWM.
Another interesting note about IWM’s bull flag is that it presented a false breakout in November 2021. This false breakout was presenting multiple warnings signs including being a UTAD test of a Wyckoff Distribution. As shown below, however, another important clue that the November 2021 breakout would likely fail was that the breakout was not confirmed when comparing IWM to the money supply (M2SL). See the chart below.
One can interpret this chart to mean that in late 2021, IWM’s price was rising because the central bank was increasing the money supply, but not due to improving strength of the underlying companies that comprise the ETF. Using the money supply as a ratio to an asset elucidates the true inherent strength of the asset's value. To understand more about why the money supply can be used in this manner, you can check out my post below.
Part IV - Additional Comments
I have a few additional comments. I usually use Fibonacci levels on a log-scale chart to identify Fibonacci spirals because Fibonacci spirals are logarithmic spirals. However, when using Fibonacci levels based on log scale, the ratios, percentages and numbers, can seem quite confusing because they are logarithmically adjusted. If you choose to replicate my process, please be mindful of this. While using log-scale charts is critical for higher timeframes (e.g. the monthly chart or higher), I have not identified much benefit to using it on shorter timeframes.
In a prior post, I noted that Plug Power (PLUG) is currently forming one of the best-looking log-scale, golden ratio bull flags I have ever seen. If my above hypotheses are true, I would expect to see PLUG move dramatically higher in the years to come. For more information about PLUG, you can read my post linked below. (This is not a solicitation to buy PLUG. Please do your own research and carefully consider all risks.)
At the risk of making this post too long and too dense, I just want to briefly note that it is also my hypothesis, based on observation and research, that the golden ratio is where many S-curve dilemmas are solved. If you don't know what an S-curve dilemma is and you'd like to read about this you can see my post below about Jumping S-Curves .
In short, an S-curve dilemma is another way of conceptualizing the question of whether a bull flag will break out or break down.
I hope that someone finds value in this post. I spent a lot of time studying, researching, analyzing, and cogitating the mathematical nature of price action to reach many of the conclusions here. Thank you for your valuable time in reading my post.
A pill for missed opportunitiesPrevious parts of the post:
Part 1: My Three Comrades: the Chart, the Screener, and the Watchlist
Part 2: Two captains of the same ship
The market is an element we take for granted. It can't stop when we're busy doing other things, and it can't work if the stock market is off and you personally have work days.
The small investor's impact on the market is close to zero. Some may not like it, but I see it as a big plus. I'm not the only one. Even Peter Lynch wrote about this . It is because of our size that we small investors have the ability to get the best buy and sell prices on stocks. Just imagine an elephant and a mouse trying to drink water from a coffee mug. Who has a better chance?
Like the best sales, attractive stock prices don't last long. This also applies to the period of increased stock prices that are interesting to sell. To make sure you don't miss this time, TradingView has an alert service.
Why do we need an alert system? For our convenience. Once we have selected fundamentally strong companies, our next step is to keep an eye on their stock price so we can buy them at a price we can benefit from.
You remember our strategy, right? Buy rooms in a great hotel, and even during a sale period.
How do you monitor these "sales"? You have two options: to monitor the price chart yourself during the trading period, or set up alerts so that if the stock price reaches a certain level, you will receive an SMS message to your phone or email, or a push-notification in the TradingView app (depending on your settings). Agree, this is very convenient.
So how do you set up the alerts?
1. First of all, you must open the chart of the stock you are going to configure the alerts for.
2. Then click on the "Alert" button at the top toolbar of the chart.
3. Set the alert parameters in the settings menu.
How do I read the settings in this picture?
If the Apple stock price is less than $130 per share, I will receive an alert every minute, all the time the stock is trading below $130.
The alert I will receive will contain the following message:
AAPL Less Than 130.00
If you don't want to get an alert every minute, set the trigger to "Only Once".
4. In the "Notifications" tab, you can configure where the alerts and the sound will go. The system of customized alerts will allow you to use your time effectively. You will not be chained to the monitor and you can calmly wait for the cherished message.
In the picture you can see that alerts can come as:
- push notification to your phone (if you have the TradingView app installed);
- a pop-up window on your monitor;
- a letter to your email address;
- a message to a web address (advanced feature for developers);
- SMS to your phone, but via email (i.e. your email service must have the ability to send copies of emails via SMS).
As for my investment strategy, it's quiet enough to work on it even without alerts. Mr. Market doesn't often come with insanely interesting prices , so it takes time to get to the target values. It's like waiting for an astronaut from the Moon: he can't return to Earth in a day, you have to wait patiently, with the occasional peek at the situation.
So, I'm concluding my series of posts dedicated to the basic functions of TradingView. I advise you to "play" with the platform for a while to get used to it as quickly as possible. In fact, it has a lot of features that you will discover over time. For now, that's it.
In the following posts, we will begin to examine perhaps the most important aspect of an investment strategy, which is fundamental analysis. Get ready, here comes the part that will require the most concentration. But then you will be able to navigate this topic with ease.
See you next time!
5 Tips for Diversifying Your Portfoliohello dear traders,
Here are some educational chart patterns that you must know in 2022 and 2025.
I hope you find this information educational and informative.
We are new here so we ask you to support our views with your likes and comments,
Feel free to ask any questions in the comments, and we'll try to answer them all, folks.
When the market is booming, it can seem almost impossible to sell a stock for less than the price you bought it for. However, since we can never be sure what the market will do at any given moment, we cannot forget the importance of a well-diversified portfolio in any market condition.
What is diversification?
Diversification is a battle cry for many financial planners, fund managers, and individual investors alike. It is a management strategy that mixes various investments in a single portfolio. The idea behind diversification is that different types of investments will yield higher returns. This also suggests that investors will be exposed to less risk by investing in different vehicles.
5 ways to help diversify your portfolio
1. Spread the Wealth
2. Consider Index or Bond Funds
3. Keep Building Your Portfolio
4. Know When to Get Out
5. Keep an Eye on Commissions
1. Spread the Wealth:- Equities can be wonderful but don't put all your money into one crypto or one sector. Consider creating your own virtual mutual fund by investing in companies you know, trust and even use in your daily life.
But stocks aren't the only thing to consider. You can also invest in commodities, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs). And don't just stick to your home base. Think beyond and go global. That way, you'll spread your risk around, which can lead to bigger rewards.
However, don't fall into the trap of going too far. Make sure you keep yourself in a portfolio that is manageable. There's no point investing in 100 different Crypto when you don't really have the time or resources to maintain them. Try to limit yourself to about 20 to 30 different investments.
2. Consider Index or Bond Funds:- You might consider adding an index fund or fixed-income fund to the mix. Investing in securities that track various indices makes a wonderful long-term diversification investment for your portfolio. By adding some fixed-income solutions, you are hedging your portfolio against market volatility and uncertainty. These funds try to match the performance of a broad index, so instead of investing in a specific sector, they try to reflect the value of the bond market.
These funds often come with low fees, which is another bonus. This means more money in your pocket. The management and operating costs are minimal due to the cost involved in running these funds.
One potential shortcoming of index funds may be their passively managed nature. While hands-off investing is generally cheaper, it can be sub-optimal in inefficient markets. Active management can be beneficial in fixed-income markets, for example, especially during challenging economic periods.
3. Keep Building Your Portfolio:- Add to your investments regularly. If you have $10,000 to invest, use dollar-cost averaging. This approach is used to help smooth out the peaks and valleys created by market volatility. The idea behind this strategy is to reduce your investment risk by investing the same amount over time.
With dollar-cost averaging, you regularly invest dollars in a specified portfolio of securities. Using this strategy, you will buy more shares when prices are low and less when prices are high.
4. Know When to Get Out:- Buy and hold and dollar-cost averaging are good strategies. But just because you have your investments on autopilot doesn't mean you should ignore the forces at work.
Stay up to date with your investments and stay alert to any changes in overall market conditions. You would like to know what is happening with the crypto you have invested in. By doing this, you will also be able to tell when it is time to cut your losses, sell, and move on to your next investment.
5. Keep an Eye on Commissions:- If you are not the trading type, understand what you are getting for the fees you are paying. Some companies charge a monthly fee, while others charge a transaction fee. These can definitely add up and chip away at your bottom line.
Be aware of what you are paying for and what you are getting. Remember, the cheapest option is not always the best. Keep yourself updated if there is any change in your fees.
Bottom line:- Investing can and should be fun. It can be educational, informative, and rewarding. By taking a disciplined approach and using diversification, buy-and-hold, and dollar-cost-averaging strategies, you can find profitable investments even in the worst of times.
Trade with care.
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Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
Thank you
Relative Strength IndexThe Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used tools in traders handset. The RSI is an oscillating indicator which shows when an asset might be overbought or oversold by comparing the magnitude of the assets recent gains to its recent losses. A common misconception is that the RSI draws a comparison between one security and another, but what it actually does is to measure the assets strength relative to its own price history, not that of the market.
The Relative Strength Index is useful for generating signals to time entry and exit points by determining when a trend might be coming to an end or a new trend may be forming. It weighs the prices upward versus downward momentum over a certain period of time, most often 14 periods, thus showing if the asset has moved unsustainably high or low.
The RSI is visualized with a single line and is bound in a range between 1 and 100, with the level of 50 being considered as a key point distinguishing an uptrend from a downtrend. You can see how the RSI is plotted on a chart on the following screenshot.
J. Welles Wilder, the inventor of the Relative Strength Index, has determined also two other fundamental points of interest. He considered that an RSI above 70 indicates that the asset is overbought, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold situation. These levels however are not strictly set and can be manually switched, according to each traders unique trading system. Trading platforms allow you to choose any other value as overbought/oversold boundary apart from the conventional levels.
How is RSI calculated?
The formula is as follows:
RSI = 100 –
Where the RS (Relative Strength) is the division between the upward movement and the downward movement, which means that:
RS = UPS / DOWNS
UPS = (Sum of gains over N periods) / N
DOWNS = (Sum of losses over N periods) / N
As for the period used for tracking back data, Wilders original calculations included a 14-day period, which continues to be used most often even today. It however can also be a subject to change, according to each traders unique preferences.
After the estimation of the first period (in our case the default 14 days), further calculations must be made in order to determine the RSI after a new closing price has occurred. This includes one of two possible averaging methods – Wilders initial and still most commonly used exponential averaging method, or a simple averaging method. We will stick to the most popular approach and use exponential smoothing. The UPS and DOWNS for a 14-day period will then look like this:
UPSday n = / 14
DOWNSday n = / 14
What does the RSI tell us?
here are several signals that the Relative Strength Indexs movement generates. As we said earlier, this indicator is used to determine what kind of trend we have and when it might come to an end. If the RSI moves above 50, it indicates that more market players are buying the asset than selling, thus pushing the price up. When movement crosses below 50, it suggests the opposite – more traders are selling rather than buying and the price decreases. You can see an example of an uptrend below where the RSI remains above 50 for almost the duration of the move.
However, do keep in mind to use the RSI as a trend-confirmation tool, rather than just determining the trend direction all by itself. If your analysis is showing that a new trend is forming, you should check the RSI to receive additional confidence in the current market movement – if RSI is rising above 50, then you have a confirmation at hand. Logically, a downtrend has the opposite properties.
Overbought and oversold levels
Although trend confirmation is an important feature, the most closely watched moment is when the RSI reaches the overbought and oversold levels. They show whether a price movement has been overdone or it is sustainable, thus, indicating if a price reversal is likely or if the market should at least turn sideways and see some correction.
The overbought condition suggests a high probability that there are insufficient buyers on the market to push the asset further up, thus leading to a stall in price movement. The reverse, oversold, level indicates that there are not enough sellers left on the market to further push prices lower.
This means that when the RSI hits the overbought area (in our case 70 and above), it is very likely that price movement will decelerate and, maybe, reverse downward. Such a situation is pictured on the screenshot below. You can see two rebounds from the overbought level with the first move being extraordinary strong and bound to end with a price reversal, or a correction at least.
.
Having noted that prices tend to rebound from overbought/oversold levels, we can therefore reach the conclusion that they tend to act as support/resistance zones. This means that we can use those levels to generate entry and exit points for our trading session. As soon as the price hits one of the two extremes, we can use the Relative Strength Index to confirm a probable price reversal and enter an opposite position, hoping that prices will reverse in our favor. We can then set the opposite extreme level as a profit target.
The unknown obvious: there's only one strategyThere's only one trading strategy, one way to trade and +inf number of ways (most of them are senseless) to model it & play around it.
How & why prices move is not a mathematical principle that can be explained with a set of logic.
It's the set of logical principles that can be modeled with mathematics.
These mathematical aka quantitative ways are numerous and generally offer a tradeoff between the computational needs and the resulting quality.
Take a look at my chart, you's see the weighted box plot that includes 80% of the data and weighted mean & standard deviations that also include 80% of the data. They're almost the same! As they should be, since the're modelling the same stuff. Box plot is a lil better since it's non-parametric (works well for all the distributions). WMA & WSTDEV are less on point, but cmon, easier to compute. And then you have the 1st degree model - weighted regression (WLSMA), that for some "unknown" reason sometimes matches the deviations that include 80% of the data?! Hard to compute tho, matrixes, vectorized ops..
Different ways, different tradeoffs, the same end, pick your poison & go.
Thing is it's all modelling, but the real underlying principles are much easier, and strangely, hard to automate 4 real, at least business wise. These things are very hard to algorithmize, and probably impossible to just calculate at all. The principles themselves are easy tho and are the same on any resolution:
1) levels are the places where it was/it is/it will be potentially or proved with evidence as cheap/expensive;
2) everything else in between these levels are buying/selling waves aka directional order flows;
Minding all that, there's only one "strategy" that will let you make the market better & earn money by doing so: buy @ potentially cheap & proved cheap, sell @ potentially expensive & proved expensive. All your momentums & mean reversions etc are ideologically the same things that allow you to do it. Everything else is a question of position sizing and gradual risk loading/offloading.
Now coming back to quantification of all this stuff & automation.
In terms of algorithmization, levels are the nightmare. their origins, positioning, clearing. You'll need to run numerous nested cycles on wide data and query databases nonstop in order to process it all, and you'll need to do it on all the resolutions you use. Waves are even more complicated, they start & end in particular places and levels affect it, they get exhausted & overridden. Wave starts/wave ends are based on levels, sometimes on higher resolutions, recursions are involved. Now imagine you're doing it on multiple assets in business environment. I don't even mentioned many absolutely deterministic & well defined judgmental calls that are made during borderline cases.
You can instead try to approximate it all using mathematics. Since the real original principles will not be reached anyways, the best we can do is to include all the information in our models and pick the formulas & methods that are as much coherent with the source as possible.
Formulas & methods are secondary. Regardless the methods, fancy formulas, what you call ML & AI these days, omg DSP adepts, bloody wavelets and ftts, etc etc etc, you can gain as much information from the data it as it is there.
Information is the main thing. The whole game if about information. Features are inherited from the fundamental particle of the market: a tick. Tho, we more interested in the 'tuple' of the 2 last ticks: current tick and the previous tick (wassup Markov).
1) Price. The actual sampled prices, calculated volume modes of every bar, HLC3, HL2, but never a Close lol;
2) Time. Can estimate the most prominent cycle and divide it by 2 / leave it alone;
3) Sequence matters. May be achieved via linear weighting of the data points;
4) Volume. Weighting by volume/ inferred volume;
5) Direction. Plus or minus? Then multiplied by volume? We might have overshoots due to negative weights tho. Another way?
You'll surely end up with something working.
^^ Funny thing tho, it's all extremely easy to do as an organic life form, you just scroll through different resolutions and see it all on the charts in a matter of seconds w/o any brain damage, without any approximations, without any data loss.
I think at this point you understand that there's absolute zero sense in using any chart studies if you trade 100% manually. If you don't I'm spamming the F button
END Procrastination Today with 7 TipsOne of the biggest issue a trader has is none other than procrastination.
• They doubt their trades – so they don’t take them.
• They skip a trading day – so they miss opportunities.
• They don’t monitor their results on a weekly or bi-monthly basis- so they can’ track their performance.
Initially, I thought it was because of a lack of confidence. But to be honest, I think it’s something a lot more transparent.
LIFE!
You have a life to live, income to earn, food to put on the table, things to do with your family and loved ones and the general duties of life.
So it’s all down to priorities at the end of the day.
Because my life has been dedicated to trading since 2003, it’s why I don’t procrastinate – take a day off or anything of the sorts.
So I’m going to give you some pointers on how to stop procrastination or at least reduce it…
TIP #1: CHOOSE YOUR TRADING DAYS
If you really don’t have the energy (not the time, everyone has time), then just choose two or three days to trade. And find the best time to locate to your trading.
Maybe it’s first thing in the morning when you’re having coffee or breakfast.
Maybe it’s when you come home after work and before you get onto the social media world.
Maybe it’s an hour before bed or Netflix. Adopt it into your life in a way that it is comfortable and manageable for the future.
TIP #2: SET SMALLER TASKS
Break larger tasks into smaller, more manageable chunks.
This will make it easier to start working on a task and to make progress. Instead of looking at EVERY market in one day, to drive you crazy. Choose a sector market and only focus on that watchlist…
E.g. Local stocks one day, Forex another day and international markets another day.
TIP #3: TRACK RESULTS ON A SPECIFIC DAY
Choose a day in the week, where you’ll jot in your trades that you added, adjusted or closed.
Create a schedule and stick to it. Having a structured plan can help you stay on track and avoid getting side-tracked by less important tasks.
TIP #4: SET A TIMER
If you have only 1 hour to trade, set the timer. You’ll find with a timer, you’ll be more focused determined and less distracted with anything else.
TIP #5: REMOVE DISTRACTIONS
Stop the distractions from your workspace.
This may include turning off notifications on your phone or computer, finding a quiet place to work, or using noise-cancelling headphones.
TIP #6: SELF-TALK YOURSELF
Use positive self-talk to motivate yourself to do it. Psychology is an important element to your trading.
Instead of telling yourself that you can't do something or that it will be too hard, try telling yourself that you are capable and that you can do it.
TIP #7: REWARD YOURSELF
Reward yourself for making progress of following with your trading actions. This could be as simple as taking a short break or treat yourself to something you enjoy.
These are just a few ideas on how you can end your procrastination from your trading endeavours…
There will be no change in your life without action, so always keep the prize in mind and you should have all the determination in the world to GO FOR IT.
If you enjoyed this feel free to LIKE and follow for more daily tips.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Breaking News and Breaking IndicatorsIntroduction
News and economic events can have a significant impact on the performance of trading indicators. While indicators are based on past price action and are designed to help traders make informed decisions about when to buy or sell a security, they do not always accurately reflect the impact of current events on the market. It's important for traders to consider the impact of news and economic events on indicators in order to make more informed trading decisions.
How news can affect trading indicators
News events, such as earnings reports, political developments, and natural disasters, can all impact the performance of trading indicators. For example, a positive earnings report may lead to an increase in a company's stock price, but this may not be reflected in the indicators until after the news has been released. This lag time between when news is released and when it is reflected in indicators can create opportunities for traders who are able to react quickly to news events.
Using technical and fundamental analysis together
To get a more complete picture of the market and make more informed trading decisions, it's important for traders to use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis. Technical analysis involves using tools such as trading indicators to analyze past price action and identify trends, while fundamental analysis involves analyzing a company's financial statements and other factors that may affect its stock price, such as management, market trends, and economic conditions. By using both approaches together, traders can get a more well-rounded view of the market and make better informed trading decisions.
The role of economic indicators
Economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment data, can give insight into the overall health of the economy. These fundamental indicators can impact the performance of stocks and other securities and should be considered when using technical trading indicators on higher time frames. For example, strong GDP growth may indicate a healthy economy and potentially positive performance for stocks, while weak employment data may indicate a weaker economy and potentially negative performance for stocks.
Tips for incorporating news and economic events into your trading strategy
To stay up-to-date on current events and economic indicators, traders can use a combination of news sources and economic calendars. It's also important to have a plan in place for how to react to news and economic events, as they can have a significant impact on the market. Some traders may choose to use stop-loss orders or other risk management techniques to protect their positions in the event of significant market movements.
Conclusion
Incorporating the impact of news and economic events into your trading strategy is important for making informed and successful trades. By using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis and staying up-to-date on economic indicators, traders can get a more complete picture of the market and make better informed trading decisions.
Introducing Minds! 5 Things you need to know.Social media has evolved to become an essential tool for traders and investors. Staying up to date with market narratives, sharing and reading top ideas, and directly collaborating with others all serve to make the medium an extremely important part of the research process. That’s why today we’re thrilled to announce the next step in that evolution - Minds!
In today’s post, we’re going to highlight a few ways to use Minds to improve the way you follow, share, and chat about your favorite symbols. After all, in markets, information is everything and this is another tool to build into your workflow:
1.) Think of Minds as a feed created by your peers – full of their opinions, notes, and shared news topics, all relevant to whatever ticker you’re currently looking at.
2.) Minds can be used to quickly measure the general sentiment for any symbol. Ask yourself what people are talking about and if it’s bullish or bearish.
3.) Accessible from any symbol page, or from the right rail (with the thought bubble icon), this unique format allows you to chat with other members of the community alongside your chart. Watch the chart and social conversation at the same time.
4.) Want feedback about a specific symbol? Head to the Minds feed for that symbol and share your questions or comments . Other traders will eventually see your posts on the Minds feed. They can then comment, upvote and downvote to let you know what their initial reaction is. This feedback can be used to improve your understanding of a symbol.
5.) Minds can be used to quickly catch up on all the news about your favorite symbols. Head to a Minds feed and examine what people are saying. Is there breaking news? Links? Charts? Something else? Over time these feeds will become essential newsfeeds for you.
Minds is currently in beta, so please send us any feedback you have! Know that we are working diligently to improve it.
Finally - while Minds is open to all users to read, follow, and vote, only paying members (Pro, Pro+, and Premium) can currently post to the Minds feed and leave comments, similar to the other social tools on our site.
Let us know how you like it, and get out there and post your first Mind today!
Happy Holidays! 😎🌲
-Team TradingView ❤️❤️
Our take on AI-generated Pine Script™The fact that GPT can generate Pine Script™ code has garnered much attention lately. While the perspective of making natural language requests to an AI to generate code is understandably attractive, it is unfortunately not something traders should use as a substitute to learning to program, or to finding a freelancer who will program for them if they are not interested in learning to code.
Simply put, the core of the problem lies in the fact that code generated by software like GPT is unreliable, and that only someone who already knows Pine can analyze it and make the inevitable changes required for it to work as intended.
Would you rely on code you cannot trust to trade your money? Those who can answer "yes" to that question are gamblers — not traders — and they most probably won't be reading this publication anyway. Because you are reading this, we assume that you are, or hope to become a trader, in which case elementary risk management would dictate that you consider GPT-generated Pine code with suspicion and not use it to make your trading decisions.
Some of the typical problems you can expect of GPT-generated Pine Script™ code is that its logic will not do what you asked it to do, and that it will frequently fail to compile because its syntax is malformed, among other reasons because it mixes up different versions of Pine.
Consequently, we have decided not to allow requests to fix GPT-related code in the Q&A forums where PineCoders answer programming questions. We believe this is the best way to support our community's all-important volunteers who contribute their valuable time and knowledge to help Pine programmers facing programming challenges. Our Q&A forums are not indicator-writing services for traders who do not code in Pine. For that, traders can use our list of Trusted Pine Script™ Programmers for Hire to find a reliable freelancer they will pay to do the work for them.
Our Q&A forums for Pine Script™ programmers are:
• Stack Overflow
• "PineCoders Pine Script™ Q&A" room on Telegram
• "Pine Script™ Q&A" chat on TradingView
If you are interested in learning Pine Script™, start here .
Whether you program or not, do not miss the opportunity to explore our 100,000-strong Community Scripts published by TradingViewers who so graciously share their work with our community.
Disclaimer
This publication is not intended as a dismissal of GPT-3. Originally designed to process requests to generate text, the successive versions of GPT have turned out to be increasingly adept at producing relatively good quality text, so much so that it is often difficult for humans to detect that a program wrote it. See on the chart above, for example, its own text on the subject we explore in this publication, or this paper it wrote about itself . We can certainly foresee many uses for GPT-generated text, although it does bring to light challenging ethical questions.
Look first. Then leap.
Understanding Trends In Markets: Why They DevelopThe prime example of a Trend on the S&P will help you understand and be ready for any future move..
Especially when you are looking at it the right way.
In this video we go from the very start to where we are now to understand how the market develops based on market news and sentiment and what to look for in the future.
Trade Small and Trade Safe.
Trading BTC : Dunning Kruger Effect 🐸Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a good and profitable trader? Have you wondered how long it will take before you would have mastered the art f trading? Myself and Dunning Kruger will let you in on a little secret - the journey of pretty much every person that has ever started trading is explained in the chart above.
The Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, is a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge (in a given intellectual or social domain) greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general. This happens in trading all the time. In fact, we probably all started there if we're being honest .
So - What causes the Dunning-Kruger effect? Confidence is so highly prized that many people would rather pretend to be smart or skilled than risk looking inadequate and losing face. Even smart people can be affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect because having intelligence isn’t the same thing as learning and developing a specific skill. Many individuals mistakenly believe that their experience and skills in one particular area are transferable to another. Many people would describe themselves as above average in intelligence, humor, and a variety of skills. They can’t accurately judge their own competence, because they lack metacognition, or the ability to step back and examine oneself objectively. In fact, those who are the least skilled are also the most likely to overestimate their abilities. This also relates to their ability to judge how well they are doing their work, hobbies, etc.
The Dunning-Kruger effect results in what’s known as a double curse : Not only do people perform poorly, but they are not self-aware enough to judge themselves accurately—and are thus unlikely to learn and grow. So how can we prevent ourselves from falling into this trap? Here's a few things to keep in mind: To avoid falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, you should honestly and routinely question your knowledge base and the conclusions you draw, rather than blindly accepting them. As David Dunning proposes, people can be their own devil’s advocates, by challenging themselves to probe how they might possibly be wrong. Individuals could also escape the trap by seeking others whose expertise can help cover their own blind spots, such as turning to a colleague or friend for advice or constructive criticism. Continuing to study a specific subject will also bring one’s capacity into a clearer focus.
💭Practice these habits to ultimately escape the double curse:
- Continuous learning. This will keep your mindset open to new possibilities, whilst increasing your knowledge over time.
- Pay attention to who's talking about what. Is the accountant talking about bodybuilding?
- Don't be overconfident. This is self explanatory.
I hope you enjoyed this post today! Please give us a thumbs up 👌
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
ADX: How to use this under-the-radar tool.Hey everyone! 👋👋
In this video, we're taking a look at the ADX Indicator. We break down how it works, how to interpret its output, common uses for it, and ways that it can help you find and screen for opportunities you like.
Feel free to drop some questions below in the comments!
Remember - nothing in this video constitutes advice, our only goal is to educate you about the markets and how to use our platform more broadly.
Cheers!
-Team TradingView ❤️❤️
Check out more information about the ADX in our help center here .
HOW TO DETERMINE THE TRENDHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you the methods of trend identification.
Finding a trend is an important task, because it is by trading according to the trend that you can earn a lot of money.
PATTERNS
Thanks to the patterns, you can understand where the price will go.
There are many patterns confirming the trend: flag, pennant, wedge, and so on.
The exit from these patterns is the confirmation of the strength of the main trend.
Follow the patterns, they will help you find the trend.
MA
Moving Average is an important trend indicator and is quite clear and simple.
The moving average is used by analysts in large banks and funds for a reason.
The main trend indicator is the price rebound from the moving average.
If the price bounces from the moving average towards the trend, then the trend is strong.
CHANNELS
The trend pushes the price in one direction and even the corrections become shorter.
Under such conditions, the channel boundaries are directed towards the trend.
Channel breakouts also occur in the direction of the trend, which is a confirmation of the trend.
FIBONACCI
Thanks to the Fibonacci levels, you can identify good entry points.
It is enough to stretch the grid to the price impulse.
This trend helps to open a position with a good entry point.
And what methods do you use to identify the trend?
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have an opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
The birth of the chart. The evolution of the tapeLast time we studied how the exchange price is formed, and we found out that it is important to learn how to read charts correctly in order to analyze price changes correctly. Let's see how a chart is made and what it can tell us.
Everyone who went to school probably remembers: to draw a function, we need the X and Y axes. In stock charts, the X-axis is responsible for the time scale, and the Y-axis is responsible for the price scale. As we already know, a chart is built on the basis of data from a tape. At the previous post , we have produced the following tape:
FB $110 20 lots
FB $115 5 lots
FB $100 10 lots
Actually, in addition to ticker, price and volume the tape also fixes time of trade. Let's add this parameter to our tape:
FB $110 20 lots 12/08/22 12-34-59
FB $115 5 lots 12/08/22 12-56-01
FB $100 10 lots 12/08/22 12-59-02
That's it. Now this data is enough to put points on the chart. We draw three points, connect them with straight lines and get a chart.
At one time, this was enough, because trades on the exchange were not frequent. But now some popular stocks, such as Apple or Google, have hundreds of trades per second with different prices.
If the minimum division on the X scale is one second, what price point should we put if there were many trades at different prices in one second? Or let's place all the points at once?
We will discuss that in the next post. And now, as a postscript, I want to show you some pictures describing how the tape was born and evolved.
Here is a picture of a stock player, looking through a tape with quotations, which is given by a special telegraph machine.
Each telegraph machine is connected by wires which, like a spider's web, entangle New York City.
1930's broker's office with several telegraph machines and a quotation board.
An employee of the exchange looking through a tape of quotes. It won't be long before all this is replaced by the first computers.
We'll continue today's theme soon.