Forextrading
A little about my trade - 4 (in vain forgotten the basics ...)Work on timeframes from M1 to H4. The most profitable trade is obtained by M5, M15. At large time intervals, trading is unprofitable, as large stop loss is required.
Forex Education: Stop Repeating Trading MistakesLet's relate our mistakes to Forex education. First things first, it's common sense that mistakes can turn into a positive learning experience. And also, they can help develop our skills while performing a task given to us. But in reality, it appears that learning from errors is hard to achieve because traders do not usually learn from their mistakes. Instead, they just keep on repeating them all over again.
Now, for instance, a trader is starting to lose at the day trade, and the trader decided to widen stop loss. However, the trader knows that the decision made was a mistake. But still, the trader continues out of panic and results in doubling the risk. Nevertheless, the trader will go on and will adjust. After that, the trader might add more funds to sustain it longer in the later stage.
In the initial journey on the trading industry, this type of dilemma happens frequently. And many traders get trapped in this situation. If a trader can't properly handle emotional stress, and clueless on managing a critical moment, this might result in committing the same mistakes and wrong decisions.
The problem is, making mistakes does not happen once. But why do traders keep on repeating them? The answer is simple, and it's the way brain responses to errors.
Brain's Responses
Furthermore, in Forex Education, one type of response mind does is when making a mistake, in trading or not, is the wake-up call. In here, the problem-solving skills are awakened. Usually, it will process every single detail on what happened and the factors that caused the unwanted situation.
Also, in connection to that, there is a phenomenon called post-error slowing. In here, attention sharpens, resulting in a long time to come up with the next step or a solution.
Another possible response is the complete opposite of the first one. The brain shuts down completely because it perceives the error as a threat. And to prevent the discomfort feeling the mistake gives, the mind creates its own escape strategy. Usually, this happens to traders who focus more on positive feedback.
Now, if you think a brain responded this way, try to rationalize, justify, or selectively omit information that shows something is wrong by attributing the result to external factors.
Record Sheet
The last topic of this Forex Education is all about noting every mistake. Start by creating a trading error record sheet. Then, make this as a part of a trading journal and jot down every unfortunate event the occurred.
But always remember that dwelling in the previous mistakes will never improve a person as a trader. Instead, practicing on how to nurture a higher awareness of inner workings and precise planning is where the improvement starts.
Learn everything about the trading market with ProfitStar Forex Trading Online Education. Join us and be a part of our pro-trader team!
EURGBP, A short trade explained. Price action & Technicals.Ok, going to throw in a little education from a trade I got on earlier. Nothing overly special from this trade. 30 pip move (and counting hopefully, the trade is still running).
First of all, I always draw my Fibonacci tool from top to bottom, never bottom to top but I appreciate there are people who do otherwise.
So drawing from swing high(0.90517) on the 1H chart, to swing low(0.89571).The fib tool I use is custom if wondering, only 3 levels included.
I monitored the price waiting for a strong price action signal for a sell(large pin bar on candle in a down trend) The price moved through the .382 level once before dipping slightly and moving through to the 0.5 level.
Notice I did not take the trade when it rejected on the first occasion as there was no strong price action candles.
I took the trade on when the candle bar which is circled was closed. Always wait for the right price action!.
The risk to reward ratio for this was very good, very little risk. Anything that went through the red highlighted area would have stopped me out, a 15pip stop loss for what I hope to be a 50+ pip move.
This may have not been explained well but I will try do better in future, but in summary:
1. Price action - Personally the most important signal when trading. Wait for the correct signal - There are 1000s of trades to take.
2. Technical analysis - In this trade I used the fibonacci tool to identify an area that the price respected and rejected.
3. Money management/Risk reward ratio - Always respect this with every trade. Do not take on trades without ratio being in your favour.
When combining the 3 of the above to your advantage you give yourself a chance at gaining from the markets.
Thanks!
AUDNZD Is Ready for next Move.AUDNZD is in Down channel pattern were in the lower time frame we bet Rising wedge pattern we need to wait for break down the pattern so that we can take them as per the market move everything was mention on the chart.
Note one think the market can go further more upside till Down channel pattern resistance line there is really Big Stop loss but if market break downside then it will continue the trend.
Note: This is only for Educational Purpose this is not Investment advice.
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Thanks
Adil Khan
Talking About Breakouts
The discussion is based on my recent trading plan for EURUSD.
How to identify false breaks and avoid traps.
USING MATH TRICKS ON YOUR CHARTS You can't count cards in casinos, but you can count bars in price action. No matter what pattern you trade, I would bet that if it falls out of of the pattern in less than 5 bars, it's not going to happen, so don't waste your time. Come back to it later. But, if it holds the pattern for 10 bars, it's probably going to continue in the pattern for 20 to 30 more bars. This little trick enables you to estimate how much time to expect your trading pattern to continue which is very useful when you're deciding whether or not you want to take the trade.
For example, if you're looking for a range pattern to trade on a short-time frame chart, look for one that has been working the range for 10 bars and you can expect at least 10 to 20 more bars of similar price action.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is another math-hound I love on my charts. It looks at historical prices and gives you a picture of current momentum and direction. MACD crunches numbers on 4 different levels, and that might be hard to do in your head. But, have a look when the MACD line crosses zero, changing from positive to negative polarity, and you'll know the math is telling you something new is happening in the market right now. How does it take historical price numbers and tell us what's happening now or even be predictive of what's going to happen next? Mathematically, of course, it can compare what was happening awhile ago with what the price numbers are doing now, and detect change in the algorithmic patterns. When "change" is viewed as momentum starting to build, that math makes you smarter with your trade entries and exits.
CAN MOVING AVERAGE GIVE CONTEXT TO PRICE MOVEMENTConsider the common situation in Forex when price makes a move for 50 or more pips in one direction. It could be a sudden move covering a large distance in just one or two bars, or it could move steadily over many days. Whether the move surprises you or steadily makes tracks in one direction, it happens that you notice this market might be trending. Will it continue? Or, should you expect it to suddenly reverse? How do you know?
Trading is a speculative venture without absolute assurance of timing or direction for the market’s next move, but there is something you can do to stack the odds in your favor. Plotting a moving average gives context to changes in price, and provides a template for planning trades with expectations about what the market will do next.
Look at these 2 charts. The first one, without any technical indicators, is a picture of rapid change in price. It would be impossible to know if it’s random, if it’s expected to continue going down, or if it might swing back in the opposite direction.
In the second picture, two moving averages give context to that same price action.
In the midst of a choppy market where price is jumping up and down over a period of time, the moving averages show me that price is holding to one side, giving me the information I need to know this market is in a down-trend and will be looking for lower lows. Going short is a good bet in spite of the volatility.
Moving averages are guides, providing context and making the world of price action look a lot less random.
CAN A MA HELP YOU TO DETERMINE IF PRICE CONTINUES OR REVERSESWill Price Continue or Reverse
Possible Expectation of Price and a Moving Average
If less than 30 bars since price has been on the opposite
side of MA - expect range behavior not continuation
If more than 30 bars expect price to continue in 1 direction
TRADING BREAKOUTS WITH KELTNER CHANNELTrading Breakouts with Keltner Channel
When it comes to breakout trading, Keltner Channel is a very powerful indicator. The keltner channel breakout system works best when volatility rises. However, the Keltner indicator measures not just the volatility, but it can also show anomalies in the price behavior.
Since Keltner channel indicator is lagging in nature, we can use a secondary tool like the ADX indicator to give us more confluence. These two indicators can help us catch explosive breakouts.
With the ADX we measure the strength of the breakout. Generally, and ADX reading above the 20 level is considered to be the beginning of a bullish/bearish trend. Any reading below 20 signals a period of consolidation.
The ADX needs to continue to rise to suggest that the trend is strong. When the Keltner Channel is used in combination with the ADX indicator, you can trade breakouts with objectivity.
Trigger conditions for buying breakouts:
Keltner Channel bands need to turn flat.
Price need to break above the upper band.
ADX needs to cross above the 20 level.
Follow the above trading rules if you want to avoid most of the false breakouts.
TRADING PULLBACKS WITH KELTNER CHANNELTrading Pullbacks with Keltner Channel
Trading pullbacks successfully can only be done in the presence of a strong trend. Using the Keltner channel indicator we can study how the price behaves around the upper and lower envelopes to gauge the strength of the trend.
As you already learned when the price hugs one of the two bands and crawls along the band, we have a case for a strong trending market.
In the chart below we’ve highlighted small retracements while the price hugs the upper Keltner band. Notice that the price retrace to the area around the 20-EMA. It won’t give you an exact price, but a price zone from where the price can potentially bounce and the bullish trend can resume.
This remains a good way to measure pullbacks in price. Successful trading doesn’t require catching the exact turning point.
For a better timing of our trades we can use the Stochastic RSI indicator in combination with the Keltner indicator for more confluence.
The trade trigger is simply to follow with this Keltner Channel pullback strategy. Pull the trigger when the price retraces to the middle band and the stochastic indicator develops a crossover from an oversold territory.
Is Taking Small Profits Bad Habit In Trading?Answer is, it depends! ( no surprise here ;) ) So now let's talk about, it really depends on what factors.
What does taking a small profit means?
If we talk about Forex trading then, taking anything less than 5 pips of profit is generally considered as small profit where usually people target roughly 30+ pips of gain in normal circumstances ( or taking profit well below the so called risk/reward ratio in range of 1:2 at least or healthy 1:3).
Why is it not good?
Keep on taking tiny profits compared to the strategy's original profit objective is certainly a path of destruction, sooner or later.
For example, your trade plan is to short EURUSD risking $50 and trying to make $100 ( 1:2 risk/ reward ). Here you enter short @1.1350 and expecting the downside of at least 1.12. Now suddenly trade starts moving in another direction and it goes up just near your stop-loss of 1.1400. But luckily trade survives and now it is trading around 1.1350, right where it all started and testing your patience. Now volatility dies down and it just stays there and in the excruciating moments of impatience and despair, you close the trade @1.1348 with great sigh of relief.
Here the problem is that if you keep on trading this way then one day, your account will be empty for sure. Because, here taking 2 pips of profit and keeping 50 pips stop-loss guarantees that you are paving the path of ruining your account, unless, you are sure that you are never going to lose a trade in your life! Because simply, just one bad trade will ruin your accumulated profit from 25 trades.
So in any scenario where your risk/reward is not optimized with trading strategy, you are never going to win the game.
Not all tiny profits are created equal !
If a trade plan is to take 100 pip profit and you have entered the trade from multiple entry points and taking tiny profit whenever market is giving you a good chance to cover tiny positions while keeping the core position active then of course it is good way to keep making money.
What's my take.
All things which makes your trading rigid are problematic IMHO. Those rigidities can be from anything, e.g. your trade plan is not flexible enough to account for change in circumstances, fixed entries, fixed exits and fixed stop-loss are equally harmful.
Especially in current atmosphere of very low volatility and lack of meaningful long lasting 1000 pip trends, it is imperative to take small profits and there is a way to do it!. My own trading style is neither purely positional nor quick technical trading, it is kind of combination of many things. One thing to keep in mind is that most important thing is the 'Strategy' and everything else should evolve around it and not vice-versa. Because if you decide that my stop-loss is just 30 pip fixed and bla bla bla then you lose the flexibility in trading. A strategy should be in accordance with your personality, so that it keeps you at peace and in rhythm. Everybody's risk tolerance and personality traits are different and so are the trading styles. Copying some so called pundit's advice ( who him/her-self is not making money from trading ) of ideal trade plan and all other nonsense is totally useless. These preachers have put on so much BS all around that the beginner trader is surely going to be lost. To be a better trader, listen to eveybody but copy nobody. Keep knocking different doors until you find that magic!
My take is - One learns from one's own inner quest. Trading is transcendental. The more you know yourself, the better trader you become. Everyone can be a good trader but very few will because, few are ready, prepared and patient to toil to find the true depth :)
KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN A RANGE PATTERNThe market is working a range pattern the majority
of the time which is good news if you know what to look for.
Range patterns are full of information that will help you anticipate what comes next, so you can trade. Here are 3 examples that will make you chart smarter!
The first chart is my personal favorite range pattern. When you see a well established range, watch for price to "overshoot" your expected high or low. When that happens, get ready! As soon as it goes past the expected high or low, place pending orders to sell from the top or buy from the bottom. If price comes back to the range, it will come back fast!
The 2nd chart is an example of past performance predicting future price movement. During a range pattern, look back 15 bars from the middle of the range, and anticipate the market moving that far in the opposite direction. In this example, the solid arrow is predictive of the dashed arrow.
The last chart is an example of how the typical slow or no momentum you would expect is happening in the middle third, shaded in orange. To and from the outer edges of the range, momentum shows up.
TIPS FOR RANGE TRADINGRanges contain elements of certainty which are rare in a speculative industry.
With previously established highs and lows, you can anticipate where the market is likely to hold, change direction or stop all together.
5 interesting facts about range patterns when charting price action.
1 - The range pattern is good for traders who are terrible at cutting their losses. The nature of a range is to not make progress in one direction, so this is the best pattern to trade if you don’t like taking your stops. If the market moves against your open trade during a range, your patience may be rewarded, because chances are price will swing back in your direction.
2 - Ranges contain areas where you can expect momentum. That sounds like a contradiction, right? It's not. You can expect the typical slow market condition in a range, but only in the middle third of the range space. Count on momentum showing up when it runs to and from the outer edges of the range.
3 - Past performance predicts future movement. You’ve heard it - you’ve probably even said it - “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” However, when it comes to range patterns, I keep track of where price has been in the past 15 bars. Do the math because that’s exactly how far you can expect price to move in the opposite direction in the next 15 bars.
4 - After a trend, it only takes 7 bars of time in the range pattern to tell me which direction is coming next. Add the 50 simple moving average to your chart. If price crosses that line and stays below it for more than 7 bars, it’s probably not going to return to the trend any time soon.
5 - The best range trades happen when your expected high or low is suddenly obliterated. Huh? It's true, and this is my secret weapon in trading. If price breaks out of a well established range pattern, immediately place pending orders to trade in the opposite direction. If price fails the breakout (which it usually does), it comes barreling back through the range pattern, and those trades move into profit very quickly.
GBPJPY - on cart here we can see parallel lines -SELLIn this pic we can see how parallel lines (candells) can show trend. When you see them you can expect much more bigger down trend.
Thanks on supporting!
All best!
Daytrading Leverage Strategy for Bigger Accounts on Forex[R:R 3]Hello everyone,
Many of you wonder how it feels to trade bigger accounts, and keeping it short: stop thinking punctual.
Whenever you think I'm buying HERE and getting out exactly THERE. Forget it, never again.
There's simply not enough volume for your positions - so what you do?
You break it up and you start thinking the final average price. You stop thinking on static numbers and you start considering regions for entry and exit.
Larger institutions take WEEKS to close their positions, so I think you get my groove here. It's hard to think tops and bottoms when you need to buy and enter all over the place - the art of market making(but that's a whole other story).
So when I started struggling with such a problem, all my strategies were basically at their maximum capital capacity. The main symptom was that my entry limit orders were being filled partially all the time.
Since I'm a very thrill guy when it comes down to the strategies I like to have every single step very well written before I start opening positions. Not only entry and exit points but also position sizing are crucial for me.
The solution was to break my position in smaller positions that I called ACU's.
Let's say we have a 10% ACU, that means that each ACU that I buy that is equivalent of 1/10 of the total position size I initially wanted.
The second step was changing my algorithms to things that triggered more often across a zone and not super price and solid signals that trigger only once.
So now I'm buying a little bit here and there, with the goal of having a better final average price.
Another secret factor for success here is being quick on or fingers or if you're tech savvy enough getting an execution bot for you.
Which means you can further break your ACU's across a buying zone.
Let's say your buy-zone goes from 1 to 2, you will spread your ACU close to what I'll explain next.
Imagine something around 10% of 10% of your total position size, yes only 1% of total
Because you will break your ACU in 10 smaller positions across the 1~2 range, similar to this
Buy 10% ACU at 1
Buy 10% ACU at 1.1
Buy 10% ACU at 1.2
...
Buy 10% ACU at 2
I know it sucks and it takes time, but the more you break your position is better and I'll tell you why. BECAUSE IT GUARANTEES YOU THE BEST POSSIBLE ENTRY PRICE.
The price hardly ever go all the way down to the bottom of the range and if does your avg price will be 1.5
But let's work with MOST of the times, that the lowest it goes on your buy-zone is around 1.3-1.7
It will always allow you to catch the best avg entry price, I know some of your limit orders won't be filled but this makes the risk a lot smaller for you, so be patient and master your greed.
This also allows the usage of leverage since operating like this makes you REALLY hard to get liquidated, the tools and the settings I used on Spectro M2 are Xconf on aggressive mode(arrows above/under candles), Spectro Warnings on Moderate(gray warnings), Adaptative Fibonacci Levels( pivot levels) & Scalper Exhaust Reversal Tool(blue background).
Also to make the stop-loss rules clear:
If the price just touched #1 Target - Do nothing
If the price just touched #2 Target - Move up one level
If the price just touched #3 Target - Move up SL to #1 target
If the price just touched #4 Target - Move up SL to #2 target if you think there will be a break-out otherwise close your position
Let me know if you have any doubts!
Secrets to Become a Successful TraderSecret #1: Stick to ONE strategy. Find a strategy that makes sense to you and stick to it and it alone like a faithful wife and master it. This is probably the single greatest secret in all of trading. Master ONE strategy. There are no “systems” only strategies that work if you master them. If you jump around from one to another you will never master anything and be forever locked in the sucker’s dream of “the system” or the “Holy Grail” of trading. The truth is, all strategies work for the ones using them if they will learn to master them.
Secret #2: YOU are the main secret in trading. You are the greatest secret in trading. You have been gifted with the fastest computer known to man at your birth and you have the ability to learn, adapt and modify everything you see and come into contact with. The way you “see” things is very different than the way other’s “see” things. If you can master “you” and your emotions about trading (talked about in another of the “secrets), you WILL become successful. And that leads us to secret #3.
Secret #3: Simpler is better. Simpler is always better. The more complex a strategy is, the harder to learn it will be and the easier it will be to make mistakes that will shake your confidence, slow you down and cost you, possibly, years in mastering trading. Anyone who says differently probably has a “system” to sell you.
Secret #4: Accept the “numbers game” view of it. Mastering trading is not hard. It’s just an issue of accepting the “numbers game” of it all. All things have a “probability” ratio or a “numbers game” that creates the success of the effort. Whether it’s sports, industry, sales or trading, there is a “numbers game” behind it all. The more you can find an “edge” something you can exploit, the faster you will become will become consistent at your effort and that consistency leads to success.
Secret #5: Master yourself, master your trading. Your own emotions are the only real “enemy” in all of trading. Brokers who manipulate price feeds cannot defeat you. Market makers who charge large spreads cannot defeat you. The news cannot defeat you. Changing markets cannot defeat you.
Greed is extremely deceptive. It’s not wanting to have large accounts, it’s not wanting to be wealthy. In trading, greed is none of the normal things you are taught it is. In trading, it’s wanting to get that next point when the strategy says your done. It’s wanting 30 points when the strategy’s rules say 15 is enough. It’s wanting to swing for the fences on every single trade. Greed is not being willing to take it slow and allow it to grow. It’s not allowing compounding to work and wanting to have it “now.”
Fear will kill your trading and add years to your effort of being successful. The rules of any strategy are designed to take the emotions out of your trading. Allowing yourself to “second guess” the rules is fear. Not taking a trade instantly on the signal is fear. Exiting a trade before the rules call for is fear. Anything that keeps you from following your rules is fear and it short circuits all of your efforts and all of your training and adds years to your trading and robs you of success. You must eliminate it from your trading.
Revenge will destroy you as well. You are not the target of any great conspiracy and the market couldn’t care less about your trade or your position. The brokers may want you to be a victim, but trading out of a desire for revenge will skew your thought and twist what you “see” on the charts. It will defeat you as will greed and fear.
Arrogance will destroy you just as fast as either of these others. Trading from the perspective of any emotion will kill your trading. Arrogance will do it just as fast as greed, fear or revenge. You are NOT mistake proof. Even IF you believe you have mastered a strategy, any strategy you will still make mistakes. Arrogance will lead you to even bigger mistakes, then to revenge to try to make up for it, then to greed to try to get “just a little more” so you can earn back what you lost.
Complacency threatens to bite you after a few good trades. Suddenly you feel bulletproof, and the next thing you know you’ve made lazy mistakes, abandoned the rules that got you in those good trades, and you’re handing back the money you earned. Each trade has nothing to do with the one before and needs just as much attention, caution and care.
Secret #6: There are no makeup trades. Trade each trade and each session as if it were the only one. Yesterday is gone and does not deserve to be remembered in trading. The only thing that exists in successful, consistent trading is the trade you are about to place. Make it the best on possible and forget the past so your emotions don’t have a place to take hold on you.
Secret #7: Persistence and attitude will overcome everything. If you believe you can do this, you can. If you do not believe that, quit now. Nothing can stop or defeat you but you. That is true of everything in life, not just trading. It does however apply specifically to trading. Never ever listen to anyone who says you can’t trade.
Secret #8: If it’s not boring, you are NOT trading correctly. People love excitement and things that are interesting. SOLID trading is exceptionally boring. One of the hardest battles you will fight is to just trade and not try to “fix it” or “improve it.” or worse, get impatient and “wing it”.
Secret #9: Some days you just have bad days! Every single athlete of any sport in any age has faced the “gremlins” of a bad day when for no apparent reason, someone whose skill and physical prowess are not even close simply trashes them. There are no reasons, to rationales, no analysis that can stop it. It will happen, but you can limit it! Trading is no different.
This is the reason for rules. They are to supersede your mind, instincts, emotions and all of your efforts to overcome it, which runs counter to everything we have ever been taught in life. STOP! Walk away when you start violating ANY rules, ESPECIALLY the 6 winning trades and STOP or the THREE LOSS and STOP rules!
If you’re ever, ever, tempted to not set stop losses as you’re sure the market’s going your way, STOP TRADING AND WALK AWAY. If you have positions that are open without stops, close them immediately, even at a loss, and shutdown your computer. If you keep trading you will undo days, weeks of hard work in one session.
LEARN to limit your arrogance and pride of how good you have become, or how good your strategy is. LEARN to limit your losses! Follow the RULES!
GBPAUD potential Head and shoulder pattern GBPAUD May give us a great sell opportunity if the price break the Head and shoulder neck line. for who don't know what is the Head and shoulder Pattern it is >
One of the most popular Chart Pattern. This pattern appears on all times frames and can therefore you can use it if you are a swing trader or a Daily trader.
Formation of the pattern
1. Up trend
2. It is formed by a peak (shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower peak (shoulder).
3. The neckline is drawn by connecting the lowest of the two troughs
Entering: when the price break the neckline
Stop loss: above the right shoulder
Target: calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline.This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
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Good Luck
The Secrets to Successful TradingSecret #1: Stick to ONE strategy. Find a strategy that makes sense to you and stick to it and it alone like a faithful wife and master it. This is probably the single greatest secret in all of trading. Master ONE strategy. There are no “systems” only strategies that work if you master them. If you jump around from one to another you will never master anything and be forever locked in the sucker's dream of “the system” or the “Holy Grail” of trading. The truth is, all strategies work for the ones using them if they will learn to master them.
Secret #2: YOU are the main secret in trading. You are the greatest secret in trading. You have been gifted with the fastest computer known to man at your birth and you have the ability to learn, adapt and modify everything you see and come into contact with. The way you “see” things is very different than the way other's “see” things. If you can master “you” and your emotions about trading (talked about in another of the “secrets), you WILL become successful. And that leads us to secret #3.
Secret #3: Simpler is better. Simpler is always better. The more complex a strategy is, the harder to learn it will be and the easier it will be to make mistakes that will shake your confidence, slow you down and cost you, possibly, years in mastering trading. Anyone who says differently probably has a “system” to sell you.
Secret #4: Accept the “numbers game” view of it. Mastering trading is not hard. It's just an issue of accepting the “numbers game” of it all. All things have a “probability” ratio or a “numbers game” that creates the success of the effort. Whether it's sports, industry, sales or trading, there is a “numbers game” behind it all. The more you can find an “edge” something you can exploit, the faster you will become will become consistent at your effort and that consistency leads to success.
Secret #5: Master yourself, master your trading. Your own emotions are the only real “enemy” in all of trading. Brokers who manipulate price feeds cannot defeat you. Market makers who charge large spreads cannot defeat you. The news cannot defeat you. Changing markets cannot defeat you.
Greed is extremely deceptive. It's not wanting to have large accounts, it's not wanting to be wealthy. In trading, greed is none of the normal things you are taught it is. In trading, it's wanting to get that next point when the strategy says your done. It's wanting 30 points when the strategy's rules say 15 is enough. It's wanting to swing for the fences on every single trade. Greed is not being willing to take it slow and allow it to grow. It's not allowing compounding to work and wanting to have it “now.”
Fear will kill your trading and add years to your effort of being successful. The rules of any strategy are designed to take the emotions out of your trading. Allowing yourself to “second guess” the rules is fear. Not taking a trade instantly on the signal is fear. Exiting a trade before the rules call for is fear. Anything that keeps you from following your rules is fear and it short circuits all of your efforts and all of your training and adds years to your trading and robs you of success. You must eliminate it from your trading.
Revenge will destroy you as well. You are not the target of any great conspiracy and the market couldn't care less about your trade or your position. The brokers may want you to be a victim, but trading out of a desire for revenge will skew your thought and twist what you “see” on the charts. It will defeat you as will greed and fear.
Arrogance will destroy you just as fast as either of these others. Trading from the perspective of any emotion will kill your trading. Arrogance will do it just as fast as greed, fear or revenge. You are NOT mistake proof. Even IF you believe you have mastered a strategy, any strategy you will still make mistakes. Arrogance will lead you to even bigger mistakes, then to revenge to try to make up for it, then to greed to try to get “just a little more” so you can earn back what you lost.
Complacency threatens to bite you after a few good trades. Suddenly you feel bulletproof, and the next thing you know you've made lazy mistakes, abandoned the rules that got you in those good trades, and you're handing back the money you earned. Each trade has nothing to do with the one before and needs just as much attention, caution and care.
Secret #6: There are no makeup trades. Trade each trade and each session as if it were the only one. Yesterday is gone and does not deserve to be remembered in trading. The only thing that exists in successful, consistent trading is the trade you are about to place. Make it the best on possible and forget the past so your emotions don't have a place to take hold on you.
Secret #7: Persistence and attitude will overcome everything. If you believe you can do this, you can. If you do not believe that, quit now. Nothing can stop or defeat you but you. That is true of everything in life, not just trading. It does however apply specifically to trading. Never ever listen to anyone who says you can't trade.
Secret #8: If it's not boring, you are NOT trading correctly. People love excitement and things that are interesting. SOLID trading is exceptionally boring. One of the hardest battles you will fight is to just trade and not try to “fix it” or “improve it.” or worse, get impatient and “wing it”.
Secret #9: Some days you just have bad days! Every single athlete of any sport in any age has faced the “gremlins” of a bad day when for no apparent reason, someone whose skill and physical prowess are not even close simply trashes them. There are no reasons, to rationales, no analysis that can stop it. It will happen, but you can limit it! Trading is no different.
This is the reason for rules. They are to supersede your mind, instincts, emotions and all of your efforts to overcome it, which runs counter to everything we have ever been taught in life. STOP! Walk away when you start violating ANY rules, ESPECIALLY the 6 winning trades and STOP or the THREE LOSS and STOP rules!
If you're ever, ever, tempted to not set stop losses as you're sure the market's going your way, STOP TRADING AND WALK AWAY. If you have positions that are open without stops, close them immediately, even at a loss, and shutdown your computer. If you keep trading you will undo days, weeks of hard work in one session.
LEARN to limit your arrogance and pride of how good you have become, or how good your strategy is. LEARN to limit your losses! Follow the RULES!
FOREX: Considering the exchange ratioThe last few days has brought home some important insights about of currency pairs. The pair is a ratio of demand of one currency over another.
I couldn't go into every aspect of this in the video in just 10 min.
Based on my observations (which are not rules):
1. All pairs quoted in US-Dollars are vulnerable, as the Dollar heads south around this time.
2. Pairs with a ratio of less than 1, quoted in US-Dollars eg. AUDUSD and NZDUSD are more vulnerable due to serious fluctuations of the US-Dollar.
3. Pairs with a ratio of >1 are less vulnerable to the US-Dollar.
4. USDCAD is problematic for anyone wishing to go long at this time because USD is heading south, price of oil is heading north (which tends to push CAD up). So the ratio is expected to come under bearish pressure around now.
5. Pairs based on EUR are under bearish pressure. But EURJPY is heading north around now because the Yen weakened largely due to recent stock market moves north.
6. Pairs quoted in Yen are likely to be pretty volatile as stockmarkets bounce around.
The above observations are bound to be correct, as they are just my broad observations limited to the last week and probably the next two weeks . I'm not interested in correlations.
