4 Ways to Trade Bitcoin!Hello my small TV community!
Today I've prepared a chart where I will be showing you my approach to current Bitcoin price action and how I usually trade.
I love to trade ranges as I have a lot success with them, not only with Crypto assets.
Usually I am not opened to all four trades, (usually I just follow the trend, when the overall trend is uptrend I just look for buy opportunities) but this time it's different.
Why it's different?
Because Bitcoin is saying that the overall daily trend is a downtrend, meanwhile the overall weekly trend is an uptrend so I am opened to all of these four trades! Mixed signals.
I only look to buy or sell at the edges of the range, I never enter a trade in the middle of the range. I wait for a better opportunity, rather than taking a bad one. (Even if it would lead to a profit!)
Which one is your favorite, or which one will you be taking? Let me know.
Btc-e
CAKEUSDT - How to find a good CAKE entryCAKE and pancakeswap are trending hard right now, its a great defi solution that's innovative and has triple A backing in Binance.
The common thought for most is, how can I get in on that profit?!
One way to do it is buy low, sell high! In order to buy low, you need a good entry, luckily, I think I've found one!
In todays video I go over how I find potential entries for profitable trades and apply it to CAKEUSDT
=== TimeStamps ===
0:00 = Welcome!
0:35 = Patterns
1:20 = Fibs
5:20 = Resistances
7:30 = Price path
11:00 = Entry
12:05 = Stop limit
12:30 = Take profit
14:45 = Fundamentals
15:15 = CoinMarketCap
17:30 = Tradingview ideas
18:50 = CoinMarketCal
19:20 = r/pancakeswap
Recent editor picks in one place! This post is a little different, I have recently gone back into Trading Education and mentoring and wanted to ask what kind of post or info would the community like?
Here's a list of the recent editor picks; some educational content (each link you can click on to go through to the actual post)
1) Gann Fan Tutorial
2) Buying the Dips made simple
3) Simplified Elliott
4) Elliott level 2 - (not an editors pick) but goes after the Simplified Elliott)
5) Quick intro to Moving Averages
6) Simpson's walkthrough Psychology
7) This one is not an editors pick but goes into more depth around the Simpson's post
8) Trading Can be lonely
9) Not an editor pick but some books for when your lonely
10) Bart pattern - no education but had a pick for this one
11) This land is mine
12) Crypto news and updates (last week)
13) How to do fundamental analysis on altcoins
Some other posts worth mentioning
🍒 COT guide -
🍒 Indicators Vs Price Action -
🍒 Using the comparison tool as indicators -
🍒 Interesting news events on BTC highs/lows -
🍒 Did you know S&P now has Crypto index's?
And have you seen a Wyckoff schematic laying underneath a daily BTC chart? This is awesome!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
How to assess an altcoinWhen doing fundamental analysis into a stock or in this case a coin – you need to appreciate, it is still a company after all. So, your fundamental analysis should include, taking a deep dive into the available information. You might want to review the project use case, the team, and the money the project has raised so far.
As you can’t really do technical analysis with limited data available on the charts.
Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. At that stage, you can use your insights to inform your trading positions. In other words, have we had a major hype & can a dump be expected?
Trading assets as volatile as cryptocurrencies requires some skill. You will need to define a strategy – otherwise, you are Gambling & not trading or investing.
As for Technical analysis, some expertise can be inherited from the legacy financial markets. Many new crypto traders use the same technical indicators seen in Forex, stocks, and commodities trading.
You often see tools such as the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands which seek to predict market behavior, the issue with this is the lack of data mentioned above. Yet, these technical analysis tools are also extremely popular in the cryptocurrency space.
Slightly harder to read a moving average when the price is in a 90-degree move up.
With cryptocurrency fundamental analysis, though the approach is similar to that used in legacy markets, you can’t really use tried-and-tested tools to assess crypto assets. To conduct a proper analysis, what we need is to understand where they (the company/Coin) derive value from.
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For you newer traders…
“What is fundamental analysis (FA)?”
Fundamental analysis (FA) is an approach used by investors and traders to establish the "intrinsic value" of an asset or business or in this case, crypto. By looking at a number of internal and external factors, their main goal is to determine whether said asset or business is overvalued or undervalued. They can then leverage that information to strategically enter or exit positions.
The goal of this article is not to dive into the methods of FA as a whole, rather just to highlight where you should begin.
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However, there are problems with crypto fundamental analysis (in the traditional sense)
Cryptocurrency networks can't really be assessed through the same lens as traditional businesses. If anything, the more decentralized offerings like Bitcoin (BTC) are closer to commodities. But even with the more centralized cryptocurrencies (such as those issued by organizations), traditional FA indicators can't tell us much.
So now we are stuck between a rock and a hard place…
A quick step would be to identify strong metrics, these should not really take into account things like Twitter or Facebook followers. It’s so easy these days to buy several thousand followers for social media sites.
One method could be; the number of active addresses on a blockchain and see that it has been sharply increasing? For example…
Are we seeing Company actors transferring money back and forth to themselves with new addresses each time? This is the level of info you can go down to – we are on the Blockchain after all.
A little more TECHNICAL
If you want to get a bit more technical – you can look at “On-Chain” metrics in depth. On-chain metrics are those that can be observed by looking at data provided by the blockchain itself.
By running a node for the desired Crypto and examining the data, this can be time-consuming and expensive. Particularly if you are only considering the investment, and don't want to waste time or resources on this process.
A simple way to do this (in some instances) is to use API-based solutions, plug into exchanges, and see third-party tools such as Binance-research's project reports.
Look for info such as;
1) Active Addresses
2) Transaction value
3) Fees – this will give an idea of the demand…
Other areas as mentioned above
You are looking to ‘invest’ in a tech company, which is the longs and shorts of it. So go and read through the whitepaper. Assess use cases, do they make sense to you?
Review the team, do they have experience or have they already raised finance enough to keep the project going – you can now use the chain metrics – to see money flow, you could go and look at the companies register, in the UK all companies are set up under “companies house” this will show shareholders, early account info, company directors.
Other factors
How about competition in the space? What projects are offering similar solutions, are the other companies further along? Does the company you are looking at, have some kind of USP over their competitors?
Supply Mechanisms – Liquidity and volume – Market Cap.
These are all things to take into consideration .
And Finally - Initial distribution and Tokenomics as a whole
A lot of projects have created tokens as a solution looking for a problem. Doge on the other hand created a meme for the market, which is turning into a solution.
Understanding the use case, cannot be stressed enough. As such, it's important to determine whether the token has real utility. And, will it have decent adoption?
Consider how the funds were initially distributed. Was it via an ICO or IEO, or could users earn it by mining?
The whitepaper should outline how much is kept for the founders and team, and how much will be available to investors. If it was mined, you could look to evidence of the asset's creator pre-mining (mining on the network before it's announced).
We have a live stream Monday at 3:30 GMT with @Paul_Varcoe
📺 www.tradingview.com 📺
As I said, this is only to give you a starting point - especially for you newer traders. There are several other factors & methods but start here.
Which crypto to put your money?Choose a chart that trends up when you want to buy or one that trends down when you want to sell. On this chart you will find a few examples. Say that you are looking for a long position, which requires you to buy, then DOGEUSD is possibly breaking out its triangle and making a new high.
Disclaimer: Nothing posted here is investment advice, also as stated in the TradingView house rules .
Parabolic Explosion / The Bitcoin PhenomenaGood Morning traders! Today we bring you a curious post, and maybe a bit controversial, since we are going to propose a future behavior in bitcoin (in relation to past events) with an extremely interesting price target.
To make this post, we will focus on the last large corrections, that is, backward movements that lasted for months or perhaps years. They can be clearly seen in the chart of the post, because the chart is in a logarithmic scale (if you do not know what the logarithmic scale means, leave a comment and we will gladly make an educational post in relation to the different scales in the graph).
We can see great similarities in the corrective movements, and so far the impulsive movements have been respected.
Speaking of corrective movements, we see that both have a depth of approximately 85%, and a duration of between 1100 and 1300 days.
🔸We can see more clearly the corrections in the two charts below:
🔸The target set in both situations is the theoretical target of this type of movements. Of course, the movement after the first correction ended up being abruptly greater than the theoretical. The rise of the previous impulse was +1600%:
Now what we ask ourselves is if the current impulsive movement replicates the previous rise. If so, it would imply a +1600% rise from the breakout, resulting in an approximate target of $340,000.
Interesting, right?
This kind of behavior is common on many cryptocurrencies. We have more examples and cases, so, feel free to comment the cryptocurrency you are inteterested in and we will try to apply this kind of analysis to it!
💡How To Use Market Leaders to Spot a Potential Bottom❗️Lets take a break from stuffing our bags with money and look quick at an example of spotting the market bottom using what's called a market leader, a very simple technique that can be very effective for both shorter and longer term trades.
In general the market right now is very alt focused, we can tell that by looking at how low bitcoin dominance is, and how the alt cap is climbing both with btc and with the general market cap.
When we're dealing with an alt focused market there's generally going to be a hot ticket item, little while back it was ETH, now it's DOGE again as it's the media darling and Elon is on SNL soon to decide the fate of every leveraged DOGE trader in one monologue.
We call this asset the "Market Leader", because it leads the market. Complex, I know.
We can identify these assets by their movements during catalyzing BTC movements, generally corrections down are the easiest to see - which is what we have an example of here. Also fundamental analysis of the news can give us a good idea of what may or may not be a market leader.
When we see a correction down, and all of a sudden a coin starts moving contrary to the correction at a level that could very well be the bounce point on our BTC and index charts; we know it's either a Pump and Dump if it's a shitcoin or that coin is probably the market leader for either the short term or potentially longer term.
In this case we see our lord DOGE, which now has a stupidly high market cap because people are inherently greedy apes, basically hit it's higher low and start rebounding almost exactly 1-hour before BTC started reacting.
The rest of the market of course followed and now we see there's a massive bounce and everyone's getting paid copious amount of money today. Fantastic.
OBVIOUSLY this is extremely potent information to have, as knowing when the market has reached it's general bottom means we can either close shorts, open longs, or both if you're one of the energetic variety.
So keep an eye out for this behavior on the markets in general - it's not always there but when it is, like ETH last week, it can lead you straight to the bank$$$
LearnTA - DUSKUSDT - Picture Perfect Ascending Triangle!The idea of this video is to give a rough beginners guide on how to evaluate a coin/token/protocol. When you first look at it, what are you looking for? Is it worth ANY of your time looking at it? Is it a s**tcoin? Is it legit?
In dusks case its a super nice looking ascending triangle pattern, cutest triangle I've seen this month ;)
Right now its all about the breakout, you may get a chance for a 2 to 3% discount buying on the lower trend line, but the beauty of these setups is its not like you're waiting -10% for it to break pattern!
0:00 = Welcome :)
1:35 = DUSK Fundamentals
2:00 = Ranks
2:45 = Does Binance like it?
3:00 = What does it do?
5:15 = Tokenomics
8:30 = FIRST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LINES
9:50 = FIB RETRACE LINES
11:15 = Basic Triangle Patterns
11:45 = THE SQUEEZE
16:20 = Measuring the MEASURED MOVE UP
18:30 = Closing thoughts
How I trade BTCIn this video, I showcase how I conduct TA and then confirm my entry/exit points using the BlueWave alongside the Stochastic RSI.
So I like to keep my trading very simple.
I start with some basic technical analysis, then I would look at my indicators for confirmation.
Please like the video and follow us for more!
The Power of Relative AnalysisGood morning guys,
I am going to explain here how to evaluate timing for any asset (crypto, stock, index), it can be extrapolated to any of them. Based on Technical analysis, Relative Analysis and Market timing:
Technical Analysis:
If you 're looking to buy an asset you can have a look at the chart itself, which will provide you a very good idea of the timing for buying it.
For that, you will use Moving Averages (21,50,200) depending on your timeframe, and you will also use other indicators such as RSI, MACD or SO .
If you want to give an extra boost to your technical analysis you can use Ichimoku, Pitchfork...
But in the end, less is more. Try to focus on 2-3 indicators and master them, it will be easier and more profitable than having lots of indicators.
From my experience, I use moving averages (21,50,200), MACD or RSI for market momentum and Fibonacci for retracement levels.
The most popular indicators usually are the most important, because there're the most used by traders and investors.
But sometimes that's not enough, sometimes you need to reassure with other tools what you see in a single chart...
Relative Analysis:
For example, if you want to buy a stock let's say $AMZN you can look at the chart but you can also have a look at the index which is listed in, in this case $NASDAQ100.
So you can see if the index itself is bullish or not compared with the stock. But what if I told you that you can make a ratio plotting both charts in only 1 chart.
Then you could see a ratio $AMZN / $NASDAQ100, where if the chart goes up it means that $AMZN is doing better than $NASDAQ100. And if it goes down, $NASDAQ100 is doing better than $AMZN.
So you can see now if Amazon is bullish itslef as a stock and if it's doing better than the index itself and evaluate new resistance support zones in relation to Nasdaq100.
As an example, if you consider Amazon about to do some big move, e.g breaking a triangle pattern, you can see if the relative analysis shows you some resistance against its index, so probably it will break the triangle on the downside.
In order to do this in Trading View, you should go to the search bar and write: NASDAQ:AMZN / CURRENCYCOM:US100 ; You've to manually put the slash and then search for the next value.
Other indicators:
If you surf the internet, you will find Fear & Greed indicators, telling you the market sentiment. You can also find market momentum simple indicators as well as Sentiment Surveys.
In reference to cryptos, you can find as wel Fear & Greed indicators (0-100) speedometer and Altcoins-Bitcoin Season indicator.
I'll leave here some links to these indicators:
money.cnn.com
alternative.me
www.blockchaincenter.net
stockcharts.com
www.aaii.com
I'll also link to this publication a couple of ideas regarding relative analysis NASDAQ/RUSSELL + BTC/GOLD published weeks ago.
Hope it's more or less clear. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions regarding the relative analysis or any other topics.
p.s: I did not talk about fundamental analysis because in my opinion chart graphs speak out loud, however you have to do your own research on each company. Fundamental analysis is another tool that we have to use to complement our analysis, specially if you're a long term investor. I am not diminishing it.
p.s.2: In the grapgh I explain Altcoin vs BTC index but as I previously said you can use it in any pair of your desire. e.g: Dash / Monero, BTC / ETH, Tesla / NIO...
Good luck everoyne and take care!
Cheers,
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.5 - "Double Three"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.5, where we talk further about two more different types of triangles - the Barrier and Expanded triangle. In the previous chapter we talked about the running flat and contracting triangle, but for these two, they are essentially the same but different overall shape! Most importantly, these are very common patterns within the realm of technical analysis and these textbook patterns also have Elliot Wave patterns within these common patterns. So, as you can see, if you can memorize the simple patterns, then you can start applying more advanced theories on top of them!
Chapter 3 Glossary:
3.1 Zig-Zag Waves
3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat
3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle
3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle
3.5 Double-Three
3.6 Triple-Three
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Double-Three
A double-three pattern is most often distinguished by all the segments in the pattern being almost equal. This is also known as an accumulation period! Yes, most people who like to accumulate when markets are flat, even have Elliot Wave patterns applied. To have this outcome, the x-wave should be included in this category as well. It merely means that we can only look for flat patterns for corrections that form both before and after the x-wave. In a way, such a pattern resembles a double-flat pattern, the only difference being that the x-wave retraces more than 61.8% into the territory of the first correction (more on fib levels in the future chapters).
When compared with the double flat pattern, a double three has no channelling component. Even in the case of a double flat, the channelling component is different from what channeling in general means. An important factor in trading a double three is knowing the timeframe the pattern is forming on. If it is forming on a longer timeframe, such as daily, weekly or monthly, then the market is basically taking a lot of time to consolidate, and it is not wise to take a trade based on the move that should follow such a consolidation. The reason for this is that swaps are going to be paid throughout all this time, and swaps are mostly negative. As a quick reminder of what a swap is, it is the difference between the interest rates of the currencies that make up a currency pair; and at the end of a trading day, providing the trades are not closed, a small amount is deducted or added to the trade. Paying a negative swap when trading a double three on the longer timeframes can prove to be an extremely expensive thing to do, and should therefore be avoided.
Technicals:
Again, apart from the normal and shorter corrections, there are actually more complex variations like the double or triple three (the triple three will be talked about in the next sub-chapter). These patterns are a combination of single and simple correction patterns like the zig-zag pattern, the flat, or the triangle variation. These single corrections are associated by a connecting X wave, which can take any corrective form, but is USUALLY in the form of a zig-zag pattern. Characteristics for complex corrections is a sideways movement (consolidation) as indicated by the blue rectangle box.
Rules:
• Zig-Zag patterns and triangles only happen once in this type of combination.
• Triangles only appear as a Wave Y.
• The difference to a double Zig-Zag correction apart from the components, is the horizontal orientation. A Zig-Zag corrects sharper and more against the major trend.
→ It is possible that two flats are appearing, but a flat followed by a triangle is a more common example. As the single corrections tend to alternate in form.
The count for a double three is a W-X-Y. Double three’s are common in the more shallow part of the wave 4.
❗The purpose of double or triple threes is to expand the DURATION of the correction.
❗Watch out for a triangle or a final wave C to catch the continuation of the primary trend. This is where you want to possibly take the trade!
If you have no idea what you are reading, start from chapter 1!
Sceptical indicators, strategies or tools? Thoughts? So this post is a little different - it's not an analysis or really a tutorial. I am looking to see what the community sees as the strangest, craziest, most colourful, most interesting or pointless indicator, strategy or tool?
About 2 years ago I was shown a strategy/technique - I assumed it was complete rubbish, it talks about Lunar dates, cycles. Now although cycles play a role in the market - I wasn't convinced it was powered by the moon. At first, I was very dubious about the concept of what seemed a sceptical idea.
Over the years I have studied Fibonacci, Elliott, Gann, Wyckoff and often see logic to the idea. Now and again something pops up on the radar & I like to explore it. I've tested Algo's and Robots, strategies that claim 97% success rate. You name it and it's possibly sitting in the junk hard drive with my FX/trading pdfs, indicators & videos.
Delta Phenomenon
In the early 80's, Welles Wilder founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the order behind the markets.” This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. All other methods of technical analysis are enhanced by this timing tool. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon gives a higher probability of trading success to existing systems. Mr. Wilder states "I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order."
Now at this point - I'm thinking, why isn't this mainstream or this guy not locked up in a nuthouse?
I had read other Wells Wilder books and found them to be overly simplistic. In that regard, I was not disappointed. Now as I said at the start of this article, I'm not looking to teach the method - it's such a strange concept, I thought there must be other people out there with things they find interesting or pure crazy?
Pitchforks for example - why do they work, how do they work? (not a question, more a statement)
How about Gann? Why and how can Gann techniques plot trend lines for the future?
Master of the Universe - Fibonacci levels - Again, why???
If you look at the dates on the chart above - these are forecasted using the delta technique, in theory, it's trying to predict moves in the market using moon cycles. Blank circles are daily turn points, circles & dots are major moves and the large circles with both, are dates whereby both near and medium dates co-exist.
I am keen to hear what you think? Do you know of the delta phenomenon? Have you used it? What about something else similar? or just something you find interesting or/and random? How about something you are sceptical about?
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Use this chart to predict Altseason in the Crypto market. Use the BTC.D chart to see where capital is flowing in the Crypto market... Into Bitcoin? or out of Bitcoin and into Altcoins.
We are at a key decision point for the market right now so you can be a step ahead of the market if you are watching this chart in particular.
DEADLY Accurate levels from Monthly log. Spider LinesThis chart's support and resistance was inspired by Crypto Face's spider line drawing method, I took candles from the monthly time frame and toggled 'Log' and drew the lines all the way from the first BTC monthly candles. I took every Monthly candle and drew extended rays, first point coming from the top of the first candle low candle of each cycle, second point on the top of nearest ATH at the time. By rinsing and repeating this process through the whole duration of BTC's lows and few ATH candles, this chart was born. You can clearly see that price action reacts very strongly to these levels. You could solely rely on this chart, but it would be best to pair with other TA in my opinion. I have not tested this with other cryptos just yet but I plan to in the near future.
Flat CorrectionHello guys
In this tutorial I'm going to teach you what flat correction is.
Flat correction is a three sub-waves pattern that form 3-3-5.
Wave A and B are corrective wave but wave C is a motive wave.
It's called flat correction because it is sideways.
Follow me for more tutorials.
Cheers :)
How to Catch a Falling Bitcoin KnifeAnother Ultra Long Term chart ( I hate doing short term trades !)
Here is a VERY IMPORTANT quote from Jason Shapiro from the book “Unknown Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager:
" Everyone understands that the market is a discounting mechanism. What people don't understand is that the discounting mechanism is not the price, it is participation. Its not that the price has gone from 50 to 100 and thus the bullish fundamentals are discounted. Its about everyone is long and hence bullish fundamentals are discounted. An example: when amazon stock was about 700-800 everyone said it was ridiculous, calling it a bubble. It was clear though that most people didn't own it else they would not call it a bubble. The stock is now trading above 2300 based solely on participation."
So here is a take on participation (measured using VPVR) over two BTC bull runs (signaled in the chart with a 50-100 MA cross) :
A: Participants who think halving is bullish accumulate thinking (rightly so far) doing so will be a low risk trade.
B: Participants add on to existing positions on bullish confirmation that halving has caused a price rise, long term bears with a functioning pre-frontal cortex jump in.
C: Participants who bought the top in the previous cycle try to get rid of their trauma seeing that price is back at their buy price. Buyers buy their bags. People who are hyper intelligent rationalize that previous top should be the new resistance sell. Too smart they are. The real resistance was Price level B.
D: Participants who think they will buy BTC when it crashes below previous ATH, fomo at these levels after BTC has a near vertical rally, offering no point of entry. Some folks who sold at C buy back again, continuing to rationalize that at least they averted a “potential” bearish scenario.
E: WELCOME NOOBIES
People who do not have the stomach of bearing pain for long term gain, sell at break-even OR at a loss. So two patterns emerge:
1. BUY > price goes down (trauma) > price goes up (hope) > SELL (relief) , OR
2. BUY > price goes up (euphoria) > price goes down (shock) > SELL (relief)
Next bear market bottom: Placing some bids around D and E to catch a falling knife seems to be a good idea. Average in of course coz you never know if price will actually reach D and E. Participants change over time. And as you I show in my display picture: No Pain, No Lambo😊