You won't like this one BITCOINFor the die hard crypto fanatics; you won't like this idea one bit. This is coming from someone who was Bullish from 2011, so don't shoot it down without giving it a read either.
You might have seen the film: Wall street, money never sleeps?
Well, in this film Gekko shows a chart on the wall of his apartment;
This chart shows the Tulip Mania curve, it was insane - below, I have taken the story from Investopedia (word for word) and below each section I will edit it ever so slightly...
First - here's a little background.
What Was the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble?
The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble, also known as 'tulipmania' was one of the most famous market bubbles and crashes of all time. It occurred in Holland during the early to mid-1600s when speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the height of the market, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary.
Today, the tulipmania serves as a parable for the pitfalls that excessive greed and speculation can lead to.
Here's the chart up close;
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History of the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market’s Bubble
Tulips first appeared in Europe in the 16th century, arriving via the spice trading routes that lent a sense of exoticism to these imported flowers that looked like no other flower native to the continent. It is no surprise then that tulips became a luxury item destined for the gardens of the affluent: according to The Library of Economics and Liberty, "it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of tulips."
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The first ₿itcoin appeared on the internet circa 2009; becoming a luxury item to own, a symbol of hope and freedom. it seem to mirror the quote exactly "a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a ₿itcoin wallet".
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Following the affluent, the merchant middle classes of Dutch society (which did not exist in such developed form elsewhere in Europe at the time) sought to emulate their wealthier neighbors and, too, demanded tulips. Initially, it was a status item that was purchased for the very reason that it was expensive.
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The middle class want affluence and wealth and see Crypto as a way to make money the easy way - thus driving up price, of such a status item.
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Cycles
The market moves in cycles which can be broken down into waves, this can then be forecasted using tools such as Fibonacci to predict price in the future.
In Elliott wave principle; You have cycles that fit into time. While exact time spans may vary, the customary order of degrees is reflected in the following sequence:
Grand supercycle: multi-century
Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years, or even several decades under an Elliott Extension
Primary: a few months to two years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes
So we would have to count the current move as a Cycle on the current count and a primary cycle inside of that (Monthly & weekly in essence) as in theory we are still inside a 1 move of anything larger.
This is the current (perceived count);
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Back to the Tulips
According to Smithsonian Magazine, the Dutch learned that tulips could grow from seeds or buds that grew on the mother bulb. A bulb that grew from seed would take seven to 12 years before flowering, but a bulb itself could flower the very next year. So-called "broken bulbs" were a type of tulip with a striped, multicolored pattern rather than a single solid color that evolved from a mosaic virus strain. This variation was a catalyst causing a growing demand for rare, “broken bulb” tulips which is what ultimately led to the high market price.
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According to some technical guys, ₿itcoin can be mined and with enough equipment 1 full coin can flower over a year - due to the halving, which causes an increase in demand. It is driven to high market prices.
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In 1634, tulipmania swept through Holland. The Library of Economics and Liberty writes, "The rage among the Dutch to possess was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade.
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In 2021 ₿itcoin swept the world reaching as far as El Salvador. The rage amongst the Tweeter crowd was so great that, every man and his dog neglected common sense and even with stimulus money being used to embark on the ₿itcoin ladder.
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At this point; you probably hate this! I understand, majority of people only want opinions that mirror their own beliefs - trust me, I'm Bullish overall, I want a buy n hold strategy, but I cannot ignore factors out of my control. Regulation, Government stupidity and the world melting.
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Some simple logic.
Back in March I posted simple roadmap;
Inside the post (click the image above) you will see exact co-ordinates for the move and the current situation. See below;
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So where next and why?
If we are seeing a monthly 3 being formed (cycle phase) then we will go into another decline. Collecting new found liquidity at the high.
And this making larger cycle 1 when it hits the 5th of this current cycle.
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Some more on Tulips
A single bulb could be worth as much as 4,000 or even 5,500 florins—since the 1630s florins were gold coins of uncertain weight and quality it is hard to make an accurate estimation of today's value in dollars, but Mackay does give us some points of reference: among other things, 4 tuns of beer cost 32 florins. That's around 1,008 gallons of beer, or 65 kegs of beer. A keg of Coors Light costs around $90, and so 4 tuns of beer ≈ $4,850 and 1 florin ≈ $150.4 That means that the best of tulips cost upwards of $750,000 in today's money (but with many bulbs trading in the $50,000 - $150,000 range). By 1636, the demand for the tulip trade was so large that regular marts for their sale were established on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam, in Rotterdam, Haarlem, and other towns.
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A single ₿itcoin could be worth as much as $67,000 which is hard to make an accurate estimation as it could be as little as $8,200 if you buy on Binance (and you have fast reflexes) Depending on where you drink beer, depends on how you can compare this. In Norway you can pay upward of $9, whereas In Antananarivo you can buy a beer for 6 cent.
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It was at that time that professional traders ("stock jobbers") got in on the action, and everybody appeared to be making money simply by possessing some of these rare bulbs. Indeed, it seemed at the time that the price could only go up; that "the passion for tulips would last forever." People began buying tulips with leverage, using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford. But as quickly as it began, confidence was dashed. By the end of the year 1637, prices began to fall and never looked back.
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At the time ETF's become available, it seems like the price can only go up. This Bull run will last forever, people start using leverage to buy ₿itcoin. Then - maybe a correction sets in.
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Never happen I hear you say; I often get asked about Plan B and the model - which of course makes some sense. But people are only reading the words and not seeing the chart;
Firstly, what happens when you see yellow dots? we go orange, yellow - boom.
Ok and then secondary to that; look at the line straight across until mid 2024 >
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Play this move out - another I posted in March this year, the logic was there for what I would regard as a weekly 3-4 move up for 5 giving a monthly 3. As per the Elliott post above in the roadmap.
Here's the outcome;
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Tulip conclusions;
A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased bulbs on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their bulbs for a profit. But once prices started their decline, holders were forced to liquidate—to sell their bulbs at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process. Smithsonian Magazine indeed notes that "hundreds who, a few months previously had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few bulbs, which nobody would buy," even at prices one-fourth of what they paid. By 1638, tulip bulb prices had returned to from whence they came.
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A large part of what will be seen as a shock horror, will be people thinking they have diamond hands until the wife finds out they have over leveraged a position that might not come back for (2 years) - unable to pay back loans on money borrowed to buy crypto. No poverty in the world, is of course the dream.
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The Bubble Bursts
By the end of 1637, the bubble had burst. Buyers announced they could not pay the high price previously agreed upon for bulbs and the market fell apart. While it was not a devastating occurrence for the nation's economy, it did undermine social expectations. The event destroyed relationships built on trust and people's willingness and ability to pay.
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Prior to 2024; people announced they could not afford to hold such positions and the game mostly passed to the wealthy who could buy when the blood is running in the streets. This destroying the trust and belief, re-affirming the "rich get richer and the poor, get REKT"
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Bullish or Bearish - I hope you enjoyed it.
I've been lucky, planted my bulbs and waiting for the to flower. If the price comes back right I'll add to the position.
Just be careful, use proper risk management and don't just buy the hype. Do some research for your own entries.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Btc-e
⚡️ Crypto Insights ⚡️ #1What people tend to miss is the bigger picture.....
Let us look at the overall trend in the crypto space, which yesterday broke to ATHs. It is looking extremely strong with an uptrend on the weekly chart and a convergent MACD. For me this shows real strength, not just in BTC but in the whole crypto space.
It is a common misconception that ATH are a bad place to be getting into a market... yes it is a time to be cautious but it also shows incredible confidence and strength!
✅Think like a Whale, act like a Whale! ✅In Crypto Space most of the Whales keep their value in BTC (900B marketcap) instead of USDT. (65B marketcap). There are significant exchanges from btc to large-scale projects such as XRP when these reach favorable relative values. Trading volumes are ridiculously higher in 2021, so we anticipate a big rise in the price of XRP over the next few weeks.
PS: Some people think that studing prices versus BTC is not important but, special if you are a swing trader, it is crucial.
Top 10 Cryptocurrencies & Their Real World UsesIn this video we explain the real world use cases of each of the top 10 cryptocurrencies. A lot of focus in crypto is focused on the price and the volatility of each coin without many people necessary understanding what their purposes are.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Digital Gold, a store of wealth and protection against inflation… this is because there’s a limited supply of BTC (21 Million) that will ever be mined. It’s supply cannot be inflated like FIAT currencies (Dollar, Pound, Euro etc) can simply be printed.
Collateral in DeFi, in many DeFi (Decentralised Finance) Bitcoin is used as collateral for you to borrow against the value of in return for a cryptocurrency loan for example. We will explain DeFi in a little more detail later.
Banking the unbanked, in many struggling economies (El Salvador for example) Bitcoin is a useful way for communities to gain access to banking facilities. While in many of those regions economies are still largely cash-driven and people cannot afford to pay for transportation to visit banks for registration, the number of those who have access to or own mobile phones is increasing. Thus, using digital wallets to transfer Bitcoin independent of traditional banks may provide a viable alternative for people without a bank account to participate in finance and to create a store of value.
Ethereum (ETH)
Smart contracts, In essence, smart contracts are created to automatically execute and complete processes, such as a payment process, in digitised form. This is the key to Ethereum’s success and its core use case. It enables developers to create complex applications powered by Ethereum’s platform.
DeFi applications, The largest category of smart contracts on Ethereum’s platform is in the form of Decentralised Finance applications.
With DeFi, you can do most of the things that banks support — earn interest, borrow, lend, buy insurance, trade derivatives, trade assets, and more — but it’s faster and doesn’t require paperwork or a third party. As with crypto generally, DeFi is global, peer-to-peer (meaning directly between two people, not routed through a centralized system), and open to all.
NFTs, an emerging use case for Ethereum is in the form of payment for NFTs… you will find that most NFT’s prices are denominated in ETH. NFTs for anyone that isn’t aware are essentially digital art that its authenticity is confirmed in blockchain data.
Think of it as a version of the Twitter blue tick for limited edition digital art.
Cardano (ADA)
Store of Value & Smart Contracts - The Cardano coin can be used as a transfer of value in a similar way that cash is currently used. This is not very different from other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, but ADA has other uses as well.
One of the core principles of Cardano is its PoS blockchain protocol where ADA is staked to the blockchain to successfully verify transactions on the blockchain. This is where Cardano crypto comes in handy. Those who stake their ADA to the blockchain are rewarded for their efforts with more Cardano crypto in return. This staking system helps maintain security throughout the blockchain.
There is also the use of ADA in voting. In Cardano, unlike other blockchain projects, it is not miners who vote and decide on changes to the protocol, it is token holders. Therefore, when a new change or development is proposed to the Cardano blockchain, Cardano crypto holders use their ADA to vote on these proposals. This way, everyone who owns the cryptocurrency has a say in its development.
ADA also can be used to power the smart contract platform on the Cardano blockchain. Developers utilise ADA to create smart contracts and applications that run on the secure, decentralised Cardano blockchain.
In the case of running smart contracts it is cheaper in transaction fees than Ethereum.
Tether (USDT)
Stablecoin - Backed by US dollars and value is pegged to always be at-or very close to £1 per 1 USDT
Transferring Crypto - Lots of people will use Tether as a middleman when transferring money from one cryptocurrency to another without paying the fees associated either between each crypto or back and forth into Fiat currencies.
Generating a Yield - Some tether users also simply hold their funds in Tether because it generates a higher yield or interest rate than their money would in a bank for example.
Binance Coin (BNB)
Binance Coin is the cryptocurrency issued by the Binance exchange and trades with the BNB symbol.
BNB was initially based on the Ethereum network but is now the native currency of Binance's own blockchain, the Binance chain.
Every quarter, Binance uses one-fifth of its profits to repurchase and permanently destroy, or "burn," Binance coins held in its treasury.
Binance was created as a utility token for discounted trading fees in 2017, but its uses have expanded to numerous applications, including payments for transaction fees (on the Binance Chain), travel bookings, entertainment, online services, and financial services.
Ripple (XRP)
Very quick & cheap cross border payments
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The primary use case for XRP is intended to be for transfer of other currencies (or indeed commodities or assets such as gold or oil) over the Ripple network. Each time a money (or asset) transferring organisation such as a bank uses the network to conduct a transfer and settlement, the cost is deducted in a small amount of XRP.
Cross-border payments between banks and organisations currently run on a system called SWIFT… a system created in 1973. This is essentially what Ripple and its coin XRP could replace with a much quicker and cheaper system.
Solana (SOL)
Smart Contracts platform.
Much in the same way that both Ethereum & Cardano is used on a day to day basis as developers who make applications on the Solana blockchain pay SOL coins for the processing / transaction fees.
Large numbers of NFTs are also available on the Solana blockchain.
Polkadot (DOT)
Interoperability - Allow different blockchains to talk to each other and share data / features between each other. This is useful for developers when making new blockchains, as they are able to use sections of features from different chains without the need to create them from scratch each time.
Unlimited Supply - Unlike most other cryptocurrencies, DOT isn’t limited in supply. This is designed to incentivise the network and dynamically adjust according to participation rates of users.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Meme coin which was originally created as a joke or parody of the crypto world.
Now however has gained massive popularity and even is considered for payments as a real world use. This is still to be widely accepted however.
USDC (USDC)
Stablecoin, backed by US dollars and value is pegged to always be at-or very close to £1 per 1 USDT. Not as popular or widely used by the market than Tether.
Crypto Explainer - What is Bitcoin (BTC) + Price AnalysisAlthough Bitcoin is very well known today, many still don't understand it fully. Here's a quick explainer of what Bitcoin is, why the big fuss about eco-friendliness is surfacing and affecting its prices, and what's happening with Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that can be sent from user to user, without any intermediary. The Bitcoin token runs on the Bitcoin Blockchain, which facilitates the transfer of those tokens thanks to a peer-to-peer network. In order to maintain this infrastructure, miners (aka distributed computers) make sure transactions tally and are processed correctly. In turn, they would get a small fee from the transaction they processed.
There are many debates about “inefficiency and eco-friendliness” in the crypto community today. And that’s the main weak point for Bitcoin. This year 2021, Elon Musk criticized Bitcoin, saying that it is unsustainable and bad for the environment, as miners who maintain the Bitcoin blockchain require a tremendous amount of electricity.
On the other hand, what if Bitcoin mining improves and we find more efficient ways to mine in the future? Any improvement in the fundamentals leads to better Bitcoin valuations.
This dilemma paved the way for other altcoins to emerge and solve this scalability problem. But Bitcoin remains the biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, as its valuation surpassed 1 Trillion recently.
Invest responsibly, and always do your own research.
CryptoTicker team
Trends in Technical Analysis 📈📈✨What are the trends in technical analysis and what is its application in digital currencies such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? In the second part of the tutorial, we will look at the trends.
The concept of trends is definitely one of the principles of technical analysis. All the tools that we will teach in the following are created from patterns, oscillators, support and resistance levels, indicators, and with the aim of helping to measure the price trend. Even if you have been in the market for a short time, you must have heard the words, "Trend is your friend", "Always trade in the direction of the trend", "Never fight the trend". These are common phrases that you often hear in the market. So we need to take the time to define the process and know its types.
Bitcoin price chart consists of uptrends, downtrends and neutrals
John Murphy describes the trend in her valuable book, Technical Analysis of Financial Markets:
The market never moves in a straight line. Market changes are characterized by a series of zigzag movements. We call these market zigzag movements. The result of the motion of these waves is TREND.
✨Classification of trends in technical analysis
▪️ Uptrend
The uptrend is defined as a series of ascending waves. Charles Dow defines an uptrend as follows: "When a price is higher on an uptrend than the previous uptrend, or when the price is on a downtrend above the previous uptrend, we have an uptrend." In other words, the uptrend is a pattern of upward fluctuations.
An uptrend indicates a greater power of demand or purchase over supply or sales, referred to as the "BULLISH market".
The uptrend in technical analysis is the result of several uptrends
▪️downward trend
The downtrend is formed as a series of downward waves. Charles Dow described the downtrend as exactly the opposite of what was said about the uptrend. This means that whenever the price is lower in a bearish wave than the previous bearish wave or the price is lower in a bullish wave than in the previous bullish wave, we have a bearish trend.
A downtrend indicates a greater supply or demand power over demand or a buy, a "bearish market".
The downtrend in technical analysis is the result of several downtrends
▪️ Range trend
The Range trend consists of a wave or waves of ascending and descending that have a direct direction. In other words, if the price can not go above the peak of the uptrend or the price can not go below the bottom of the downtrend, we have a Range trend.
A Range trend indicates a relative balance between buyer and seller power or market supply and demand. "Range market" refers to this trend.
The Range trend in technical analysis is the result of several neutral waves
✨So far, we have defined the concept of trends in financial markets. We may be trending in the market but we need another tool to confirm our diagnosis, trading volume is the tool we need. According to Dow, trading volume is a secondary but important factor in confirming warnings derived from price analysis.
In general, keep in mind that trading volume should be in line with the direction of the main trend.
In the uptrend; Each ascending wave is accompanied by an increase in volume and each descending wave is accompanied by a decrease in volume.
Trading volume should confirm an uptrend
In a downward trend; Each descending wave is accompanied by an increase in volume and each ascending wave is accompanied by a decrease in volume.
If you have any questions, comment for me🔥🔥
📣📣Lesson 1: Philosophy of Technical AnalysisHi guys
Today I decided to start teaching digital currency
And I will teach you the most important indicators and patterns that I use in my analysis.
And in the first lesson I want to explain the philosophy of technical analysis
And other courses including:
♦️ Session 1 - Philosophy of Technical Analysis , ♦️ Session 2 - Trends , ♦️ Session 3 - Support and Resistance (1) , ♦️ Session 4 - Support and Resistance (2) , ♦️ Session 5 - Charts and their types (1) , ♦️ Session 6 - Charts and their types (2) , ♦️ Session 7 - The downtrend line , ♦️ Session 8 - Ascending trend line , ♦️ Session 9 - Price Channel , ♦️ Session 10 - Graphic Patterns
♦️Session 11 - Flag Pattern , ♦️ Session 12 - incremental triangle pattern , ♦️ Session 13 - Decreasing Triangle Pattern , ♦️ Session 14 - Symmetric Triangle Pattern
♦️Session 15 - Soroshane Reverse Pattern ,♦️ Session 16- Roof Head and Shoulder Pattern , ♦️ Session 17 - Twin floor pattern , ♦️ Session 18 - Twin Roof Pattern , ♦️ Session 19 - Falling Wave Pattern , ♦️ Session 20 - Wage Rising Pattern , ♦️ Session 21 - Indicator and Oscillator , ♦️ Session 22 - Moving Average Indicator , ♦️ Session 23 - RSI Indicator , ♦️ Session 24 - MACD Indicator , ♦️ Session 25 - Fibonacci , ♦️ Session 26 - Candlestick Patterns.
🔴What is the philosophy of technical analysis and what is its application in digital currencies such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? In the first part of the training, we will discuss the basics of technical analysis.
Let's start by asking what is technical analysis? Technical analysis is the study of market behaviors using charts with the aim of predicting the future of price trends. This is a description of technical analysis that is accepted by almost all experts.
Philosophy and basis of technical analysis
In general, there are three principles on which technical analysis is based. These principles include:
🎯 Everything is included in the price.
The phrase "everything is included in the price" is the basis of the philosophy of technical analysis. This means that anything that can affect the price, including political, fundamental, geographical and other factors are included in the price. Belief in this sentence is a kind of introduction to technical analysis. After accepting this statement, we come to the conclusion that price analysis is all we need to study the markets.
🎯Prices move according to trends.
Prices move according to trends. In other words, prices like to maintain their current trend instead of changing direction. This law is a kind of expression of Newton's first law of motion, in which prices will continue to move as long as the deterrents stop them.
🎯 history repeats itself.
The philosophy of technical analysis is to study the past price and expect it to be repeated in the future. Another expression of this is to say: history repeats itself, and this is the key to predicting the future through the analysis of the past. In other words, the future is nothing but a repetition of the past.
🔴Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis
In the first part, we answered the question of what is technical analysis and its philosophy. In this section, we will point out the difference between technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
Both technical and fundamental methods always try to solve a single problem. The only problem is the forecast of price movement. In other words, in what direction the price tends to move. In fact, they approach a single issue in two different ways. The technical analyst believes that price changes are all he needs. In contrast, the fundamental analyst always deals with the causes and reasons for price changes.
As in the philosophy of technical analysis, the focus is on price changes, in fundamental analysis, it is the economic factors that affect supply and demand and cause prices to change.
Please support me with your like so that I can prepare more content for you
Simple Price Action Strategy – Easy Money! $$$$$Here is one of my favourite setups that is easy to learn and trade. I’ve heard it called many things over the years and know that many successful traders watch for this pattern to play out as it has a high win rate. Whatever you want to call it, it’s worth studying and adding to your playbook.
What’s actually happening in this pattern?
-A low is formed. Long entries have stops below the low providing a pocket of liquidity.
-As price returns to the area these stops are hunted and the liquidity is taken. Early breakout traders will short and become trapped. A base has now been formed.
-Price returns to the base and retests it as support.
-Price bounces back to swing high.
How do we trade it?
-The first thing we want to look for is a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2). We can then mark out a potential range.
-Next, we want price to return to the swing low and either trade briefly below the range (a deviation) or just quickly wick below (sweeping the lows), and then price should return to the range. This area is shown as 3.
-Bids can now be placed at the range low. The setup is invalidated if price trades lower than 3, so stops should be somewhere under the low at 3.
-Targets should be set at the swing high (2).
-This also works for shorts – just flip everything upside down.
You can see this pattern on all timeframes and it presents a lot of opportunities once you know what to look for.
Happy Trading.
How to Use the Bitcoin Dominance Chart to Maximize ProfitsIn this post, I'll be explaining a simple approach to the cryptocurrency market, and how you can refer to the Bitcoin Dominance Chart (BTC.D) to maximize profits.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
- Bitcoin Dominance is simply an indicator that demonstrates the percentage of Bitcoin's market cap relative to the entire market cap.
- When Bitcoin dominance is high, it indicates that Bitcoin's market cap is relatively larger compared to that of other altcoins, and vice versa.
- So when Bitcoin dominance rises, it could either indicate that:
- Bitcoin is rising at a faster pace than altcoins (during an uptrend)
- Altcoins are correcting at a faster pace than Bitcoin (during a downtrend).
- Vice versa, a drop in Bitcoin dominance could indicate that:
- Bitcoin is dropping at a faster pace than altcoins (during a downtrend)
- Or that altcoins are rising at a faster pace than Bitcoin (during an uptrend).
- Understanding this, you can refer to the Bitcoin dominance chart to rebalance your portfolio according to market situations.
Historical Price Action
- Above, I've marked Bitcoin's price action (black), relative to that of ETH (blue), which represents the overall altcoin market.
- The captions in the chart best explain the logic behind the price action, and how dominance is affected by it.
- What's important to understand is that the situation is relative: a high dominance does not necessarily indicate that buying altcoins is a good idea.
- It's important to understand the overall market cycle and structure to determine which regions are good entries.
Anatomy of a Market Cycle
- Above, we have the market cycle explained using Elliott Waves.
- The market never moves in straight lines: It goes through phases of impulse waves, and corrective waves.
- Elliott Waves also have very strict rules that must be kept.
- Or else, the wave count is considered negated.
- Here are the rules:
- Waves 1,3 and 5 are always with the trend
- Waves 2,4 are always against the trend
- Wave 2 can never drop below wave 1’s low
- Wave 3 can never be the smallest wave
- Wave 4 can never drop into the range of wave 2 (unless it is part of a diagonal)
- With this in mind, we can now take a look at where Bitcoin is, from the larger wave count.
Bitcoin Market Cycle using Elliott Waves
- We can start counting the wave from $3.1k, when Bitcoin bottomed out around the end of 2018
- Based on this wave count, it could be said that the move up to $64k was the end of the 3rd impulse wave.
- We have recently completed the 4th corrective wave, and are on our way to complete the 5th impulse wave.
- As to why I have selected the $200k region and June 2022 as my price and time period target, please refer to my previous analysis below:
Conclusion
Bitcoin dominance is currently forming a double bottom on the weekly. With Bitcoin's wave count lining up for an impulse move upwards, I expect Bitcoin to rally upwards, outperforming other altcoins in the short-mid term. As Bitcoin paves way for the entire crypto market cap by breaking through all time high levels in Q4, we could see Bitcoin dominance reach resistance around the 60-70% range. At that point, given that the broader market cycle isn't over, it would be a good point adjust your portfolio, and scale profits from Bitcoin into altcoins for maximum returns.
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If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
Read The Market (RTM) 🚦 each reversal pivot or node (flag) has big orders that makes a Failure To Continue interval which called FTC
imagine that each reversal pivot has 3 disposable price interval like traffic light :
1. yellow (FTC accept) : its kind of protection for FTC, start of finding divergence like wave 3-5 of Elliot
2. red (FTC) : the level which has biggest order and most potential to revers
3. green (MPL) : its safe to continue...
* notice that each interval is disposable, it means that if price touch it once, it doesn't work any more ...
** we have any fractal concept in this strategy like other's... sor for each big FTC, we have more accurate FTC ... if you dont know what fractal means, check "Butterfly effect and Fractal" tutorial on related ideas ...
as you see in Bitcoin, 55-58 is the last FTC of FTC for uptrend and it has already touched once, so we dont have any red light above but .... it has just reached accurate red light and still we have FTC of 55-58 interval which is 56100-56900 ... so BTC should have some retrace to a reversal point (FTC) ... it has a minor FTC in 42k and major one around 38k, both of them are untouched ... after 37k is green to continue to 27 or 24 even...
we try to continue showing each traffic light 🚦 in following analysis ...
thanks for reading this article, hope it would gainful...
price action patterns you need to know ( part 4 ) hi my friends , i'll share with you some patterns which can help you in trading ( part 4 )
Falling Wedge appear in downtrend and it indicates that the sellers are losing momentum in the market, and the buyers are gaining momentum ( long ) you can go long after the break or the retest of the trendline .
rising Wedge appear in uptrend and it indicates that the buyers are losing momentum in the market, and the sellers are gaining momentum ( short ) you can go short after the break or the retest of the trendline
note : Usually we find there is a divergence in the RSI indicator and this can be used as confirmation .
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price action patterns you need to know ( part 3 ) hi my friends , i'll share with you some patterns which can help you in trading and make it easy .
we find double bottom in downtrend and this pattern mean that price will change to the opposite direction ( long ) and we can use the line as a confirmation .
double top appear in uptrend as signal of price change ( short ) and we can use the line as a confirmation .
note : both of them ar reversal patterns
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Top Crypto Influencers To Follow In 2021(part 1)Hi guys
Today, I want to introduce you to the influencers that you should follow on Twitter and the news that they publish on their Twitter, can be effective in the crypto market. If you also know an important influencer who is not under this post, please comment.
♦️ 1.Elon Musk(@elonmusk)
The ever unabashed defender of bitcoin and dogecoin, the King of Crypto on Twitter has amassed so much influence that a single, one-word tweet can make or break a currency, leading investors into some wild roller coasters as of late. Cleary, he’s the kind of crypto influencers to follow if you don’t want to miss out on all the action.
♦️ 2.Andreas Antonopoulos(@aantonop)
This tech entrepreneur and open blockchain expert has long been regarded in the crypto community as a trusted and unbiased educator, with an extensive list of best-selling publications (The Internet of Money, Mastering Bitcoin) under his belt. He’s also the co-host of the hugely popular Speaking of Bitcoin, where he delves deeper into the technical aspect of digital currencies, the future of decentralized finance, the rise of neobanking, NFTs and, of course, the good ol' BTC. Antonopolous earned his stripes as an early adopter of digital assets and the blockchain, making him one of the very few bona fide crypto experts in an industry increasingly saturated by wannabe gurus. Follow his Twitter for all his latest tips and thoughts.
♦️ 3.Adam Back(@adam3us)
As a pioneer of early digital asset research and adoption, Adam Back is best known for being the inventor of the proof-of-work system Hashcash, now used for cryptocurrency and blockchain verification purposes, all way the back in 1997. He also contributed to some of the world’s most revolutionary crypto-financial infrastructures through Bloc stream, a leading blockchain technology company of which he is the CEO and co-founder. The company places a heavy focus on developing distributed ledger technology (DLT) as well as other cryptocurrency ventures. Back has also gained his cloud as a top crypto expert by working as cryptography advisor specializing in security architecture, p2p systems, distributed file systems, protocol design and and cryptography protocols.
♦️ 4. Nick Szabo(@NickSzabo4)
Before Bitcoin there was BitGold, one of the first-ever digital currencies, created by Nick Szabo in the early 2000s. In fact, such are the parallels between how both currencies came to life that many in the cryptocurrency industry believe Szabo to be none other than the illusive father of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. Szabo has denied that claim to fame, but he can count developing the concept of smart contracts among many of the feats that have made him a legend in the crypto space. Szabo is well known for his political views on cryptocurrencies, often speaking on the issue of cryptocurrencies replacing fiat as a means for countries to bypass international sanctions.
♦️ 5.CryptoCred(@CryptoCred)
CryptoCred is an independent Twitter educator and technical trader who has succeeded at amassing a massive online following for himself online with daily market analysis and trading tips. All his content is available for free and accessible across a number of platforms, including Twitter.
♦️ 6.Notsofast(@notsofast)
Bringing with him a vast abundance of educational content and cryptocurrency market tidbits is Notsofast. He’s been around since the early beginnings of crypto and has become a prolific commenter on Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as Syscoin and niche crypto economies like Parkbyte. Notsofast is also an Altcoin miner . You can find his commentary across several YouTube channels and Twitter.
♦️ 7.PlanB(@100trillionUSD)
If you are looking for a blockchain and cryptocurrency influencer who really knows his stuff then PlanB is definitely plan A. Commenting under an assumed identity, PlanB draws much of his experience from his two-decade-long experience as an institutional investment before migrating to the world of cryptocurrencies and becoming one of its most notorious investors and advocates. He’s also known for helping popularize Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow price predictive model, which has proven to be accurate time and time again. Based on that, PlanB has made some bold market predictions, most notably that BTC will hit $250,000 or higher in the near future.
♦️ 8.Josh Olszewicz(@CarpeNoctom)
If you’re all about technical analysis trading, then Josh Olswzewics (aka CarpeNoctom) is another gem you might consider following on social media. This self-taught trader first got into cryptocurrencies after stumbling upon it by chance on Reddit, bought his first digital currency in 2013 and then famously predicted that Bitcoin would hit 33K by July of 2018. So yes, he’s widely known as the 33k Guy and his followers love it. Josh posts relevant information pertaining to current happenings, news, trading tips, and memes on his Twitter account.
♦️ 9.WhalePanda(@WhalePanda)
Another fellow Bitcoin Class of 2013, WhalePanda has a long track record of commenting and making accurate predictions about cryptocurrencies and the blockchain. He’s also an angel investor and many industry followers turn to his hugely popular Twitter account for some sound advice.
♦️ 10.DonAlt(www.youtube.com)
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If you’re looking for someone to help you with dipping your toes into digital asset investments and cryptocurrency trading, then DonAlt is another great educator. They are well known for having a strict no-promotion policy as well as dishing out no-nonsense advice across on social media. Together with CryptoCred, they’re also the host of TechnicalRoundup on Youtube.
ETH An example in why retail traders are wrong!Good Morning traders!
Today I have a great example of order protection and liquidity building.
This is something that I have been speaking about for a long time and this current PA shows it well.
The blue boxes show places where large orders have been placed and and initiated moves. See how price returns to retest these areas?! this gives the Banks, Whales and big players a chance to protect orders.
Retail traders place orders outside of these areas "support and resistance areas" These orders can easily be seen, and therefore hunted. The highs and lows create areas for the big players to exit the large volume positions as every buy order needs a seller and vice versa.
I hope this information has been helpful.
As always trade safe.
EnvisionEJ
Is BTC entering the grand super cycleI have always been bullish with cryptocurrency, especially in BTC even though many will argue that it has not much of a usage apart from just transaction. But BTC has and will be the leader since it has garnered the most attention from the institutions and even countries like El Salvador.
Mores o, Citibank has come out with the current report on cryptocurrency, last being in 2014 stating the potential of the currency itself. Remember, wave 1 is always the time where it gets attention from the people. Many eager eyes from the insitutions and big players might have been accumulating the currency during the correction, namely Cathie Wood, JP Morgan etc....The usage of blockchain technology is spreading like wildfire.
I remember during the 2017 bullrun it was brought on by ICO and the crypto millionaire frenzy. But this time is different. The years long of development in the technology has successfully garnered the attention of many tech players and businesses. Players like VET has successfully penetrated the commercial world. You name a few coins and you will see businesses are beginning the use the service. It is becoming mainstream sooner or later.
It's quite interesting to look at BTC chart in a longer time frame such a weekly or even monthly. What has really struck me was the bullishness of the currency itself. Be it weekly or monthly, it just shows the signs of bull. The uptrending in price between August 2020 till April 2021 might be just the 1st wave it has done. The correction until August might be the end of wave 2 which correlates with the falling to the support of 0.618.
if this holds true, the 3rd wave is just beginning to form. The third wave is where most people will catch on the rocket and is always the longest wave form. The third wave usually achieves 1.618, 2.618 or even 3.618 of the 1st wave. But bear in mind in each wave, there will be a smaller wave of correction. Meaning, the saying of hold and buy the dip still holds true. Since it's long term bullish, traders just have to buy the dip and sell according to the resistance using fib and patterns in the chart (please correct me)
Whether should we compare to the price chart in 2013/14 or 2017/18 is not relevant to me because they are just reference.
Many people have been commenting about bubble. Yes, anything that is too hot will have to take some chiller. But not this time. I strongly believe as long as the currency has not gone mainstream and adopted by most companies, there bubble is still not yet to burst.
If BTC can achieve even half of the market cap of gold, then it might reach the height of 300k or even 500k. Mind you it's the circulating supply that matters. We know that there are BTC that are missing forever due to certain reasons.
I am here to provide some perspective of the currency if anyone is still in doubt of the potential of cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is here to stay. I will not say it will bubble for the next few years. BTC might be having a bullrun for the longest period of time
I would appreciate if anyone can comment on the idea to give more perspective.
Guidance note - short selling and trading in generalI though I would write a simple Guidance Not on shorting etc.,
- In general, sell rallies (refer below for guidance)
- use candle wicks at rejection points.
- wicks + inside bar - a good limit grid point to sell.
- trade limit order book exhaustion - not mid range unless news etc., determines otherwise.
- be careful of short covering forces and bargain buying.
- using closing price to identify the floor / ceiling - candles are range IN time - closing prices are range OVER time .
- nice to have a market with you - look for other evidence not just noise trading i.e. SOPR peaked out or negative.
- marry-up trading aggressiveness to capital management.
- trading style is aligned to your temperament
- trading style aligns to the time you have available to monitor. More aggressive, more scalping, lower time frame -> more time commitment required!
- Taking profits is as important as stop losses.
- Identify market breakeven points - price action normally follows where traders are trying to breakeven.
BTCUSDTHey everyone,
I'm not trying to predict next movement. I can say neither it goes up nor it fall down.
So, please consider this as a tutorial :
1st question : what is an uptrend exactly ?
Uptrends occur when we see higher high and higher low.
2nd question : when can we say an uptrend is getting stronger ?
When we see upward movements which are larger than their previous movements. For example, in a 12345, 23 should be equal or larger than 1 and 45 should be equal or larger than 23.
3rd question : when can we say an uptrend is getting weaker ?
Of course when it's upward movements getting smaller and weaker continuously.
So, as we can see in the chart, as the time passes, we see weaker and weaker upward movements which is a sign of forming falling trends in the future.
BC = 0.78A, DE = 0.618BC and guess the question mark! XY = ?????DE
If XY can not reach DE's height, we will presumably see a price correction in the future.
Furthermore, on daily chart, we can see divergence in RSI which is a sign of future bearish trends.
Also, you can see easily a downtrend in the volume indicators.
An increase in price along with a decrease in volume is a bad sign for the bull market.
ICHIMOKU: Priceless Princess of INDICATOR WORLD.Ichimoku Cloud Indicator is really very good indicator to judge the trend and price action. here is the values i use.....
Conversion Line Length 9
Base line 175
Leading Span B 246
Displacement 14
*its works on every single time frames, i would highly recommend it 1Hr Time Frame. happy Trade guys....
What does burning a coin mean? Can it tackle inflationIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
➡Coin-burning is the intentional and permanent elimination of a portion of cryptocurrency coins from circulation. It is done by sending cryptocurrency tokens to an eater address, also known as a ‘blackhole.’ It is a wallet address where no one holds the private key. Without the private key, these tokens cannot be accessed by anyone and are lost forever.
Although creating an artificial supply crunch might seem like an illegal market manipulation technique, it definitely isn't!
This act is primarily done to control the price of the particular coin. All the transactions are recorded on the blockchain and cannot be altered. Therefore, everyone can verify that the coins were actually burned. Burning a portion of the entire circulation decreases the supply, thereby increasing its relative scarcity.
➡How did coin-burning as a concept evolve?
It is not a new concept at all. Although coin burning in cryptos gained huge popularity recently, a similar concept exists in the case of stocks. Companies buy back shares thereby reducing the total circulation, creating an artificial supply crunch.
One of the most notable instances of coin burning was when Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum burned more than 90% of his Shiba Inu tokens. More recently, with the London Hard Fork, close to half a million dollars worth of Ethereum is being burned every hour.
➡Can all coins be burnt or only some specific ones?
All cryptocurrency coins can be burnt. The decision to burn tokens usually resides with the developer/miner/team behind the particular coin.
➡What is Proof-of burn?
Proof-of-Burn is a consensus mechanism implemented by a blockchain network that operates on the principle of allowing miners to burn virtual currency tokens. Proof-of-burn is like the Proof-of-Work mechanism without the energy wastage.
Proof-of-burn involves a mechanism that promotes burning crypto regularly to prevent unfair advantage to the first movers. It also helps to maintain mining power. Instead of a one-time affair, the Proof-of-burn engages miners to carry it on as a routine activity.
➡What it's the need to burn coins and how is it beneficial for the investor?
There might be different reasons to burn cryptocurrency coins. The most notable objective is to create a deflationary effect. Removing a large portion from circulation causes a supply crunch. It drives the coin price higher. It makes existing investors pretty happy as the value of their investments is now higher.
Additionally, coin burning provides a natural mechanism to prevent spam attacks against something called the Distributed Denial of Service Attack (DDOS). Therefore, it acts as a safeguard for the network.
After the London Hard Fork upgrade to the Ethereum network, around 3.17 ETH is being burned every minute. To put this into perspective, as of today’s ETH price of $3100, around half a million dollars worth of ETH is being burned every hour.
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Keep supporting:)
-Mudrex
Trade what you see, Bearish or Bullish? You tell meGood day fellow traders.
I hardly post these days. But for the purpose of sharing some views.
You could say Logic> retrace vs what does the structure tell you. Let me be clear always be bearish aka sensible. Before you make a decision!!!!!
I expected a correction of larger size in the last week. So what is happening
We are currently in what seems to be a 5ft wave within a larger structure. Which to be clear, atm looks quite bullish. Does that mean we go up? Not necessarily. The probability is more favorable atm. The battle is still waging.
Most anticipate the 50.7K level to be of large interest. This makes sense for the psychological part of trading and coincides with some levels off course.
Looking at the indicators at our availability. Volume has been fairly controlled from the move of 30k to current. So imagine what happens if volumes decrease, will we fall, most likely. Will it be as hard as most people are stating. Not so sure. When we look at the last corrections these were all very controlled and with a lot of strength (we lacked the large volume as stated from start bull). But also the large selling from the correction from 65K. It also states that there are always buyers waiting at every correction to add positions. Renewed interest at support levels.
Now, what will happen if the large volume does return in strength? Easy push thru 50K levels? The MACD is trying to cross bullish, not there yet! But if we get a buy signal at these levels and position of our MACD. Imagine the wave possibilities for the size of the next wave.
The RSI is showing a lot of strength within the recent moves. Again an indicator that is leaning towards strength. Maybe more power than most have thought over the last weeks?
The weekly chart:
What does that tell us? Pinbar? bullish cross MACD? Bullish cross DMI? Started a 3 wave within a larger supercycle? Weekly support 43K resistance 50K > 57K. Favorable TD count. Nice looking Pinbar candle atm. TP on the weekly are the fib extension levels from the start bull run 127-161.
4H chart just for info:
So what is going on? Time will tell. The point is never anticipated what the others tell you. DIY, that's where you will make a long-term investment, swing trade. Day trading is a different story.
Crypto can change very quickly. Do yourself a favor and watch the Daily and Weekly above everything else.
This is not financial advice.
Good luck to you all
Old post to show the levels?
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
Welcome to The Pivot Point.So whilst most people just see them as lines on a chart, I don't find many people know how to calculate them or have any real strategy around them.
Here's an intro to Pivot Points;
Summary
Pivot points are used by traders in equity and commodity exchanges. They're calculated based on the high, low, and closing prices of previous trading sessions, and they're used to predict support and resistance levels in the current or upcoming session. These support and resistance levels can be used by traders to determine entry and exit points, both for stop-losses and profit taking.
How to Calculate Pivot Points
There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system. This system uses the previous day's high, low, and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points), to derive a pivot point. The equations are as follows, with the added R & S 3!
Indicators
You may have already seen but @TradingView has a couple of built in indicators for pivots such as this one below; where these levels are automated for you.
For stocks, which trade only during specific hours of the day, use the high, low, and close from the day's standard trading hours.
In 24-hour markets, such as the forex market in which currency is traded, pivot points are often calculated using New York closing time (4 p.m. EST) on a 24-hour cycle. Since the GMT is also often used in forex trading, some traders opt to use 23:59 GMT for the close of a trading session and 00:00 GMT for the opening of the new session.
While it's typical to apply pivot points to the chart using data from the previous day to provide support and resistance levels for the next day, it's also possible to use last week's data and make pivot points for next week. This would serve swing traders and, to a lesser extent, day traders.
This info is all on free sites such as investopedia.com & Babypips.com
Alternative Methods
Another common variation of the five-point system is the inclusion of the opening price in the formula:
And a method by Tom DeMark;
Pivot points can be used in two ways. The first way is to determine the overall market trend. If the pivot point price is broken in an upward movement, then the market is bullish. If the price drops through the pivot point, then it's is bearish.
Some people use pivot points in short term/scalp type strategies - One such method is the rejection;
where as another is taking the break of;
The Bottom Line
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Pivot points are based on a simple calculation, and while they work for some traders, others may not find them useful. There is no assurance the price will stop at, reverse at, or even reach the levels created on the chart. Other times the price will move back and forth through a level.
www.investopedia.com
Here's another example of how they are used in one of our custom indicators - to help assess the current trend and various levels.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.