Btc-e
What can we learn if BTC decouples from ALTs & Dominance drops?This last move was important to pay attention to and be aware of whats going on in the markets. Bitcoin has been dominating the landscape for some time and for good reason. It has the most exposure, it has large funds being able to invest in it, etc, etc.... People were creating ways to get into the crypto craze and found ways to do it.
I am not hear to pinpoint on exactly when to get in. I am hear to tell you that if you are sitting on the sidelines mulling around whether or not it's a good time to get in, please consider this chart. I can throw most any major alt coin and the result will be similar as to the eth and ltc comparison. AS BTC dominance drops, the ALT's rose, along with BTC for that matter. If we are going to have a massive alt season 2, this will be the time to get in and HODL. If you are targeting ETH, will it matter if you get in at 150, 200 or even 250 if it goes to $1,200? No, it won't. If you wait for more confirmation, you could possibly miss a large move to the upside. Maybe it goes down more before it goes up, no one knows. If we take a step back for a moment and look at bitcoin dominance we can see what story it is telling. The first and most obvious is that when BTC domiance dropped in 2017 prices started to increase. It's important to notice that this happened MID 2017, but people consider the bull run to happen late 2017 if not the beginning of 2018. But if you invested then you were late. You were showing up to the party as the police were arriving. Not a good time.
The BTC dominance MACD is just about to arc over and cross. RSI is very much oversold. The BTC halvening is approaching next year, there are massive advances in crypto, etc... The decoupling exposed itself this last rally when almost EVERYTHING moved up and BTC stayed flat. Of course everything has corrected a bit, but that is to be expected. There are signs they are decoupling and if so it could be worthwhile to begin to take positions for a move up. Almost EVERY cross (ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, etc..) are at all time lows, priming the pump for another ALT season. Ask yourself this... If ETH went down to $150 even if you bought at $200, would you be angry at having to ride it out? Or more angry if you hadn't bought at $200 and it moved up to $300, or 500? Make sure you evaluate your plan, whether trading or hodling and know the potential of what is going on. Stay disciplined. Could BTC go down to 7k?Could it drag everything else down with it? Very possible, and it's what I have thought until this latest move. Because what if it decouples from alt's and those stay stable or even move up? As evidenced by the recent moves? Compare the latest ETH chart to BTC. It looks like BTC is moving down and ETH to the upside... It will be quite interesting to see where we go and I hope I provided some insight and help for your positions or trading.
Best of luck trading and hodling
-Sherem
4H BTC Waves+ Signal charting, full blindFully blind signal charting followup for Waves+, BTCUSD 4h.
All horizontal lines/signals were plotted with the candlestick chart hidden and not visible. Additionally, this time, all directional trades and exits were determined with the chart hidden.
Additional signal explanation and rationale is detailed in yellow text, annotated on the chart/indicators.
8/10 Trades closed in profit (green checkmark). 2 Trades marked with red X were below 2% profit margin, and are considered a loss unless high leverage is used.
Setup/configuration:
Initial setup with Waves+, DOSC (Derivative Oscillator) with signal line disabled. 1-2 bar delay on signals to provide accurate/realistic demonstration of entries/exits (on bar close).
Waves+ has the LSMA line enabled (dark blue).
Waves+ is a hybrid wavetrend fibbonaci oscillator.
Waves+ components:
Light blue line = Waves line
Dark blue line = LSMA line
Red line = Mmenosyne follower (fib line with medium speed)
Green line = Mmenosyne base (fib line with slow speed)
Shaded yellow zone = Explosion Zone warning (Ehler's Market Thermometer)
Red/green center dots = TTM Squeeze Loose Fire(red), TTM Squeeze Strict Fire (green)
Lower dotted line = 38.2 fib line
Upper dotted line = 61.8 fib line
Lower dashed line = 25 wavetrend limit
Upper dashed line = 75 wavetrend limit
Blue 1/2 height block = suggested TP from short/drop incoming 1-2 bars
Orange 1/2 height block = suggested TP from long
Chart markup:
solid green = buy/long signal
solid red = sell/short signal
dashed red = early sell/short signal
dashed green = early buy/long signal
dashed orange = suggested exit from long signal
dashed blue = suggested exit from short signal
Trades closed in profit/loss, no stops, marked up on chart:
Trade closed in profit = green checkmark
Trade closed at a loss = red X.
Trades that are less than 2% in profit will be considered a loss for scalping unless leverage is used.
Incremental for this blind signal test will be documented below/updated as part of the trade idea/post.
How to recover a losing trade, earn profit and extend liq markthis is a cooper_5e trading tip for when you mess up a trade and long the local top or short the bottom - why lose money and fees in a losing position, markets go up and down right?
Disclaimer; you must have some sort of idea of market directions, reversal, support/resistance etc.
So...
you longed the top (and think duh why did i do that) :-(
the market turns on you but you dont take loss well and decide to hold as you may do this and hold until you can breakeven (so you can relax)
what you need to do is wait for temporary reversal signs in the market and add to your long (daunting i know)
when the momentum pushes up your loss reduces (yay) but having doubled your stack means your liq is closer now.
when you see its topped out you reduce position (do not close entirely) - nice, youve banked some cash now.
but the banked cash isnt a win yet as all you have done is lower your liq mark - good idea in leverage state
the market drops again and your -% increases, you see reversal - repeat the above steps - more in bank but unusable too.
the market drops agani, repeat, however this time theirs a ripper candle that passes your average entry, this means your in +% and your monies made on the way down are banked as profit :-)
here you can exit at breakeven... or hold for further glory
this is a roulette cheat of double down (oops im giving gambling tips now) where u can take many loss but each time double up until the color you sat on wins, changing direction mid game may continue bad fate
i dont do this technique too often but if im tired or making rash decisions it can be a good way to make money whilst losing to increase the wins when winning ;-)
XRP vs Gold - The real moveWhat if I told you the dollar will be backed by XRP and XRP will be backed by BTC and BTC backed by gold?
would you call me insane? Would you say I should walk away from this space now before I go too far down the rabbit hole?
Well its just a conspiracy theory. And that is where it will sit but its kinda not too far-fetched of an idea when you see how this entire space is developing.
I have a gut feeling that once the feds are done pumping money into the dollar as well as other currencies; printing will slow down dramatically beginning 2020. From here fiat currency will tank forever in a bearish market while digital assets and country by country stable coins begin to take over. These are called CBDC's. Central Bank Digital Currencies. Here is the link for anyone who has not done their research: 2018 publication
www.imf.org
It will be possible to still use fiat currency but it will be like going to the store and using a $2 dollar bill come 2045-50. It'll be rare to even need paper money in 10 years from now in America.
Today, paper money is in my wallet for a short amount of time -- if ever at all. For years now I never use paper money unless I had to withdraw cash to give to someone, but even then, I have paypal and other systems I can use now that have no fees for me to transfer (such as Zelle on PNC which PNC is apart of the Trump executive order for a new global fintech system which also uses Ripple's network indirectly.
Source : home.treasury.gov
Well I think that we will get this kind of announcement in the next decade or towards the end of 2028. XRP will be a driving force like blood in the veins of this entire network supporting bitcoin with oxygen and value diversification at near instant speeds. It is what will pump economic value inside the bitcoin system and all connected protocols that survive the full regulatory rodeo show we have been in since Jan 2018.
In a perfect digital asset / world here is what I would like to see form.
1. New assets for growth to swallow inflationary costs and over valued stocks / commodities / and other investment vehicles....this would put other markets into a corrective state while digital assets grow.
2. XRP would become the universal token for transferring money globally and not just for international payment transfers (that was just the beginning). It will become a "valuable" storage container to secure payments on, save money, make it fast, etc etc...and if the majority of money around the world is constantly pumped through the inter-ledger system it will constantly slowly grow in its value beyond $1 and it would become a perfect fit as a new $100 dollar digital asset liquidity coin/token whatever you wanna call it. I like to say investment vehicle because it acts just like that.
100 billion dollar supply is pennies compared to trillions of dollars. Anyone who thinks that supply matters here with this asset does not fully appreciate/understand the way XRP is destined to work. By design, theoretically, XRP can very well have a 10T dollar market cap and be worth $100 bucks or more if you want to believe that (id love that too), sit in 1st place, but be worth less than BTC forever.
3. XRP supports fiat money transfer but supports the basket of CBDC's that are being used as a vehicle as well for on-boarding and off-boarding value through multiple networks.
4. BTC becomes the official universal digital gold in support of gold usage since its a widely used conductor and in much of our technology it only makes sense to merge these two assets or make them co-exist as a foundation of support / LTC ends up backing or acting like silver and every invention you can think about with silver.
5. ETH begins to act like the S&P500 with hundreds of businesses supporting its value growth.
6. Other things as well but this post is becoming too long so im going to cut it here.
Overall, I thought this was a neat idea to share. Alongside I am posting a historical pic in the comment below of Gold because XRP is looking quite similar in development.
There is so much that can happen in the next 10 years I just can't fathom BTC, ETH, or XRP ever going away anytime soon. That being said....enjoy the waves of the market and be a proud individual to be able to live in a life where we can create opportunity out of thin air that can give us a prosperous financial portfolio.
My goal is to obtain over 100,000 followers so we can all support each other on an invite only scale social network of knowledge, trade, and donation to leverage each other up.
Something like this takes time and this is something I will reach and achieve by 2030.
100,000 people supporting each other over the next decade. Get at me, bring a battle buddy cuz we are going into new trade wars and id rather go into this next decade with an army of people beside me, not behind me, not in front of me.....beside me...taking on the next 10 years together for our families, friends, and ourselves. Because at the end of the day.....we deserve to life a happy life with less debt and more options for wealth and growth. Im sure there are many of you out there sick and tired of being tired down to credit cards, debt, always fighting for good income but being taxed like crazy, have little support or knowledge to grow on... well im here to tell you I am 1 of a few in this world ...a rare breed with enough knowledge to share that'll help many in this world.
If there is one thing I hate growing up knowing...it was the fact my government's system failed my parents and failed me and it was failed on purpose because its a faulty designed system to begin with and has been well known by the banks and federal government since the YEAR OF MY BIRTH. I was born 2 months before the 1987 Stock market crash. What is known as Black Monday...the impact it had on my family took away our opportunity for our family to be fruitful. We started over in 1987 and had little to begin with even then...
The picture is much bigger than just crypto currencies everyone...and I hope this post helps those who cannot see that ...begin to see....
Your network is your net-worth. Build it wisely...and always respect each other.... much love everyone
..as always stay safe out there. Manage your risk....and grow many avenues of investments in your life because there is time for you to do it now but you have to take action and stop telling yourself you will get to it. As my buddy told me yesterday...GET OUT OF YOUR HEAD AND ON YOUR FEET! Actions speak louder than words. Thoughts are just thoughts until they're written on paper and designed into a plan. We all know this but we all don't always live by it!
Make goals. Plan them from A to Z. Live by them like your life depended on it and encourage those around you to help guide you and your plans of life success (not just financially but def included lol).
Peace. Love. Trade.
Can you make money by understanding indicators? -- on the core s
Often hear everybody say, my skill is not good, lose money again, teacher, can you recommend a useful index? Or talk to me about a metric and how you can modify it to make yourself invincible. Whenever I hear such questions, I feel helpless. In the past, I've said more than once that making money has nothing to do with technology.
Have you ever wondered if the people who invented the metrics would all be billionaires if their technical analysis skills were directly proportional to their earnings? Even if not all indicators work well, should the inventors of the magic metrics that the market is talking about be very rich? Because we all think they're good at it, they're the inventors, they're better at it, but I think the answer is no. By now, I know trading geniuses who try to sum up their experience into technical metrics, but the inventors of rare metrics become billionaires with their metrics. If so, I believe he is first and foremost a top trader.
This as a good coach is not a good player of logic, the deal itself is independent of the work, he needs the quality is not based on the technical condition of the single, but a more comprehensive psychological factors, many top gambler, they are not highly educated scientists, leamer, is the most typical case, a person's intelligence and education not proportional, many successful people, not through the system of learning, of course, we don't deny the importance of system study, but first of all, if you have enough intelligence quotient, such ability.
Back on technical analysis, I often say, analysis and trading are two levels of matter, my analysis is one of the upper level should be, but I don't think he is a good trader, because I don't have trading quality - courage, a lot of people can make money, that is not based on technical analysis, but based on their boldness, at a crucial moment can be an determination, this is one of the best traders. If you are a decisive person in daily life, learning trading skills, the success rate must be higher than technical analysis very good, but lack of courage.
Therefore, in large institutions, analysts and traders are two departments of people, who play their respective expertise to achieve a win-win goal. Of course, in reality, there will be people who combine analysis and trading, but such people are rare, not everyone can do it.
As far as I am concerned, I prefer to spend time on the technical analysis, because that is my hobby and expertise, and do a person want to make money, you should think about, whether I should be a focus of traders, because most people cannot be the combination of the epoxy resin, it is the best in a make a trader can you make money in this market is the key.
So we can see that the level of technical analysis is not necessarily related to making money, so what is the core technology of making money?
I think should be the point of view, a lot of people said that, I also know the up here, I also saw the risk, but I can not control myself, want to win so afraid to lose, is based on our state of mind, because we are born with human greed and fear, cannot be wiped out, unless you can attain buddhahood, also need not deliberately blame yourself otherwise.
In my community, usually I like to say a word, is to tell you that my analysis level are not much higher than anyone, but my mood is very good, because I can stay out of my character, relatively rational and objective to analyze things, like the poem said: not looks like, the good luck body is in the mountain. Most of the time, your attitude is based on your position. It has also been said that the position determines the position, when you hold the chips, you will automatically look long, even after professional training, not anyone can do not be affected. So don't deliberately force yourself to do the impossible task, as to do their own more expertise.
One of the things that I do in the community is to constantly alert people to the risks, to warn them, to control their mindset, which I think is the best help I can do, far more meaningful than a correct analysis.
So I think we can also try this way, don't try to look for any advanced technology, what only makers know secrets of indicators, who is but you are not confident performance, a top traders, must first have good state of mind, can be in a bad hand, lose don't even less, while a good hand to a big win. Such a trade, in the long run is completely able to beat the market. We all know that warren buffett is a master investor, and if you look back over the last 30 years, he became a master not because he made more money in the long market, but because he lost less in the short market.
The accumulation of wealth must be seen in the short board of the barrel. The hardest spear may not keep the warrior alive, but a good shield may bring a longer life.
If you can look at every trade, as a turn-around, round and round, believe that you can become the winner of this market. Remember that a good trader is not necessarily a good analyst, nor is he the one who makes the most money at one time, but a person with a strong ability to make money consistently, a person who trades with a normal heart.
The secret of never getting stuck and never getting lost
I started to publish the article of digital currency analysis in July, 1818. At that time, I felt that the circle was really chaotic, and many people could not find a way to operate blindly, so that they lost all their money. Heartache at the same time, also want to do something. In the past year, I have been insisting on giving you some basic logic of trading and asking you to set up your own trading system. In fact, it doesn't matter whether you believe me or not, what matters is that you have standards and can strictly implement them. Some people say I have no real skills and the strategy I give is very simple, just a macd. That's true, but a macd, if you can use it well, can still be invincible in this market.
Unfortunately, I see every day, hear, or I burst the warehouse, the teacher, I stuck, how to do?
If you can read my article continuously, you shouldn't make such mistakes in theory, but I know that many people can't achieve the unity of knowledge and action, and in a chaotic market, it is very difficult to keep calm and rational independent thinking.
The strategy of trading has been repeated many times in the past, but I repeat it because I know someone will always understand.
First of all, I give you spot + hedging, should be the best strategy, if you can understand, you know how useful it is
Secondly, trading discipline is our basic guarantee. If you open a contract and do not set a stop loss, it is equivalent to opening a position without wearing a safety belt and making your risk unlimited.
Third, if you know what the macd is for, you won't say I'm low, I'm low on tools. Trend is king, and if you don't follow it, the results will be miserable
Fundamental Analysis: It worksHey, hey, hey! Wassup wassup wassup? Bitcoinnect!!!
You'll be happy to know the $50 I left on my Bitmex account when I defenitively quit crypto are doing very well.
Went short 130 bucks saturday morning at the price of $10090, and that went rather well :D
So as long as this little money survives I'll still look a little bit and make calls and you'll still hear from me.
So as you can see, fundamental, in this case we can maybe call it news, analysis works!
Coupled with TA in the form of that descending triangle, it worked like a charm.
As an individual, being a firm by yourself, knowing 1 market inside out has its rewards, but it is also pretty risky.
1 way to do it I could suggest if you want to go this way would be:
- Have 1 to 3 markets that are your specialty (the more you have the less info you'll have on 1). If you trade very short term probably 1 is max, higher TF 3 is ok you just go for the big moves maybe.
- Have 1-2 strategies you are really good at, and a handful of other markets you don't know great, but well enough to trade if your mains are being slow for a while.
Example: When BTC was flat in August-November 2018 you likely could not have traded it great. Looking somewhere else would be interesting.
Back to BTC.
In December 2017, people that knew a little about future predicted that CME launch would mark the top for Bitcoin.
This is going to be the top for a couple of years at least, maybe forever...
I wonder if the BTC decimated investor community are going to get mad at "wall street" for "killing" Bitcoin with futures?
The first futures in history date back from babylon 1750 BC, they were some kind of agriculture future.
I'm just going to copy it from wikipedia:
Futures are known for "crashing markets" because producers, when futures become available, use them to sell their products early on at a guarenteed price.
I speculate that the price crash is often violent because once futures open alot of producers are going to be interested but there won't be much speculators to absorb their orders.
Or it could just be that the market becomes more efficient and the price finds its more right spot.
In a futures market you need hedgers (producers or even buyers such as the company making corn flakes being corn buyers) and speculators.
Afaik no futures market has ever worked without the 2 being present.
So we can see that it is likely that what happened with CME futures is that all these miners (you must have heard the stories) "I sold my house to buy Bitcoin mining equipement" vastly reduced their risk (their risk of not getting their equipement money back) by purchasing selling contracts, basically "I will sell 5 Bitcoins in the future at a price of $19000", as long as they'll mine those 5 BTC, they have nothing to worry about, they will be able to sell them at that price.
For the other large futures company, the ICE, and their overhyped Bakkt futures, the logic is different.
Here, people were excited and prepared to see large institutions start buying massive amounts of BTC (don't ask me why they thought this would happen).
And day 1 went like this: 65 BTC were traded in total. Day 2: 163 BTC traded.
And of course, no institutions are interested. Once again. But some people thought they would suddenly change their minds and bought BTC in anticipation for this.
So here, today we learned something important.
Faaalling Bitcoin? Cup and Handle + Volume AnalysisThis is a daily chart for BTCUSD on Bitstamp.
The most obvious thing I want to highlight is the battle at the 0.382 Fib level.
It is very very common for an asset to have a few checks and tests off of 0.382.
And BTC is no exception.
For the past few months, we've witnessed a battle between Bulls V Bears at 0.382.
Now, bull and bear volume has been declining. Who will take over?
It seems like the technical bearish pattern Cup and Handle has surfaced.
The Cup and Handle target is projected downward,
equal to the distance between the neckline and the highest point of the Cup and Handle.
This projection takes us right around the 0.618 and 0.786 levels.
These levels are very common to show reversals .
And around this level, the price is around $6K.
Funny, this is around double the last bottom ($3.1K).
Why am I bringing this up? Remember, if you consider Bitcoin
as a commodity, then you must remember that a commodity's price will gravitate to its cost of production over time .
With difficulty increasing, we know that CoP will increase over time, and that BTC will have higher bottoms , at least for the short to medium term.
So, it makes sense for BTC to follow this Cup and Handle projection.
But remember, the market can do any damn thing it wants; we'll just have to wait and see ;)