EDUCATION: MACDHello, dear subscribers!
Today we will examine another one lagging indicator - MACD. It is very useful indicator but you need to use it carefully because usually it is just adds other indicators and can to generate a lot of fake signals.
What is MACD?
MACD consists of:
1)MACD (blue) = EMA(12) - EMA(26)
2)Signal (red) = EMA(9)
3)Histogram = MACD - Signal
The MACD line is the long EMA value substracted from fast EMA value. It shows the trend direction. If the MACD>0 the market is bullish, if MACD<0 - bearish. The difference between MACD and Signal line is the proxy of trend strength.
How to trade with MACD?
The classical approach to MACD is to search the MACD and Signal line crossovers: when the MACD crossed the signal line from down to up it is the bullish signal, in opposite case - bearish. The MACD and zero line crossover means the trend confirmation. But this approach is not good enough to make profit. As you can see on the chart it can generate fake signals or signals which are too late - the price have already grown. If you want to use only MACD, please, find really strong signals. For example, if the price demonstrated higher low and MACD - lower low, it is the hidden bullish divergence. With the further MACD and signal lines crossover it gave a really nice long signal.
Summary
1)Find the price/MACD divergence
2)Wait for the MACD and signal line crossover
3)Enter an appropriate position
4)Be careful about weak signals
5)Use MACD with other indicators as an addition confirmation sign
Btc-e
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 1 - "The Overall Cycle"Hello Traders. I would like to introduce a new series of articles pertaining to the Elliot Wave theory. We are seeing higher interest in Elliot Wave theories these days but many traders and investors have a hard time grasping the foundation of Elliot Waves. I would like to finally start implementing my overall view of the basics on Elliot Waves so that investors can start understanding the many great charts we have here on TradingView. The Elliott Wave Theory is one of the best tools to describe how markets behave from both a technical and market psychology perspective. It is used to identify the end of a movement and predict where the market will turn via reversals. In combination of basic patterns, indicators, and Elliot Waves, you can have the secret recipe to a high probability, or near perfect trade.
I will be dividing the chapters as followed:
Chapter 1: The Overall Cycle
Chapter 2: Motive Waves
Chapter 3: Corrective Waves
Chapter 4: Variations of Waves
EDUCATION: Williams Alligator IndicatorHello, dear subscribers!
Today's topic is Williams Alligator (WA) Indicator, which is very important and efficient trading tool at any timeframe.
Definition
WA consists of three lines:
Jaw = Moving average with length 13 and offset 8
Teeth = Moving average with length 8 and offset 5
Lips = Moving average with length 5 and offset 3
But you can choose your own settings.
This indicator usually use for trend confirmation and works perfect with other indicators, which will be examined in next topics.
How to trade with Williams Alligator?
Alligator has 2 states: slleping and feeding time. The yellow areas demonstrate the sleeping time, when the lines are intertwined. During this period is not recommended to trade. When the lips start rapidly move down it means the downtrend start. After this the jaw starts open and the feeding time confirmed. When the red candle closed lower than all three MA lines, this is the perfect moment to entry short position. The exit condition is the crossover the lips and teeth lined, but you can do it earlier - when the price broke up the lips or teeth lines.
For the long position the opposite is true, the lips line have to rapidly move up and be above other MA lines.
Summary
1)Define the alligator sleeping time
2)Find the moment when lips line starts to move down and below other lines for short and move up and above for long
3)Wait the candle close below/above all three lines for short/long and entry position
4)Exit the position when the lips line crossed the teeth line
This indicator is also has not perfect performance in sole use, but with other indicators it can bring a great profit. We will talk about it next time.
The Most Used and Profitable Chart Patterns - Bullish PatternsHello Traders. Here, I would like to show the most commonly used and highly profitable patterns for new traders (and advanced!). There are two categories of patterns in terms of price action:
Continuation patterns
Continuation patterns are usually indications for traders to look for a signal that the price trend is likely to remain in play from a market psychology perspective. These patterns occur in the middle of a trend, hence, continuation - and once the signal has been proven, the trend will most likely resume from a probability perspective.
Reversal patterns
When the pattern signals a change in trend direction, it is known as a reversal pattern as shown in the examples. Technical analysts have long used price patterns to examine current movements and forecast future market movements by using reversal patterns. These self-fulfilling prophecies have become a thing of the past and is now used daily in everyday trading.
These patterns are the most often used patterns in the trading arena, especially in cryptocurrency trading. These patterns are often identified by many as the essentials for trading. As we can see in the diagram above, we have many different patterns to choose from and we can see these patterns on almost all timeframes if you look closely enough. I hope these bullish trading patterns become useful, as I also use these patterns on a daily basis. Part two of the series will be showing the BEARISH patterns, so please stay tuned.
***These are the patterns to memorize***
1. Symmetrical Triangle
2. Ascending Triangle
3. Bull Flag
4. Double Bottom
5. Inverse and Shoulders (Inv HnS )
6. Falling Wedge
7. Cup and Handle ( CnH )
Trade Safe!
EDUCATION: Pivot LevelsHello, dear subscribers!
Today we are going to talk about one of the most useful indicators in cryptotrading - pivot levels(points). We have already considered the lagging and leading indicators and decided that the second one is the most valuable.
Definition
Pivot levels is the leading indicator which define the potential pivot levels for the next trading period (in our example - month). The formulas for the levels calculation you can see on the picture. It is known that when the price is up of the central pivot - the market is in the uptrend, if the opposite - in the downtrend.
How to trade with pivot levels
It is great to use pivot level with some lagging indicator to confirm the entry points. This indicator can give the information about levels when the price can bounce off or reverse. You can see the points with small red arrows where the price bounced off pivot levels and went down after it - this points can be used for the short position. The green arrows demonstrate the potential price growth points. But there are also a lot of breakpoints (blue circles), to avoid the trade execution next to these point you need to use some confirmation with lagging indicator.
Summary
1)Define the trend direction
2)Open short if downtrend, long - if uptrend
3)Define the entry points next to pivots
4)Find the confirmation with some lagging indicator to avoid the pivot break points
5)Execute the trade, set the sloploss level
Good luck!
How to Use the Long/Short Positioning Tool - Full BreakdownHello Traders. This is a continuation of how to use the long/short positioning tool from our previous post. In my previous post, I talked more specifically about how we can calculate the Risk Reward Ratio ( RRR ), but here, in a visualized format, I have broken it down as best as I can so that you as the trader can understand each and every part of the tool.
This tool is one of the most important tools to use as a trader, in my honest opinion, due to it being heavily focused on how to preserve your account taking into accountability of your overall funds. Your goal in trade is to make sure you preserve your capital, and not lose it. Often more than not, traders have no idea on how to exit a trade. No matter how bad (or good) of a trade setup you may have, having a solid risk reward ratio setup is incredibly important for making sure you are taking profits and losses at the correct places.
I have separated this article into three sections as shown in the diagram above.
1. Profit Zone
2. Stop Loss Zone
3. Trade Zone (Risk Reward)
Reference: www.tradingview.com
TradingView offers plenty of great tools, but it's important to know how to use the tools. Many traders use the long/short positioning tool; however, often is misguided due to not understanding the full functionality.
For more on risk reward management posts, please check the posts below!
Financial Risk Cheat Sheet - How To Allocate Your Funds ProperlyHello traders. Here I present to you an important lesson of how we should all be allocating our funds. In the pyramid above, you can see the distribution of risky assets to low risk assets. Low risks are associated with low expected returns while high risks are associated with high expected returns. Investors who are not willing to take high risks have to be contented with lower returns and investors who want to achieve higher returns must be prepared to bear higher risks. This is life - but life is all about taking risks. As there are good stresses and bad stresses in life - there is also good risks and bad risks. Instead of simply saying what's good or bad, I like to use a term called, "calculated risks". By calculating your risks properly, you can learn to allocate your capital and exponentially grow your funds in a longer period of time if you take proper action. Think of this as the food pyramid. Too much sugar can be bad for you. But with just the right amount, it can be beneficial for you mentally.
The Investment Risk Pyramid is an asset allocation theory and I have presented it in an easy visualization in this article. Investors can use in selecting different asset classes to diversify their portfolio according to their risk tolerance and expected returns. I highly advise many to screenshot this and hang it on their walls. It can be a good daily reminder before you press the buy or sell button.
Bottom of the Pyramid: Lower Risk
The base of the pyramid contains the lowest set of risky investments. These investments that have the lowest risk, because, well, they generate the lowest rates of returns. These investments are represented by the pyramid’s wide base as low-risk investments should generally constitute the bulk of your portfolio. These investments include cash and cash equivalents, money market account and money market funds, treasury bills, certificate of deposits as well as high-rated government and corporate bonds.
Middle of the Pyramid: Medium Risk
The middle of the pyramid contains investments of a moderate risk. Although they are riskier than the assets at the bottom of the pyramid, these investments should still be r'elatively' safe as investors all around the world also like to invest into these types of assets. They are the pinnacle of how the economy runs. These investments generally offer a stable return and capital appreciation in the longer term. These investments include income stocks and growth stocks as well as mutual funds, index funds and real estate - all necessities of life in the economy.
Top of the Pyramid: Higher Risk
The top of the pyramid represents high risk investments. These investments may yield large gains but may also yield large losses. Because of their speculative nature, you should only allocate money to high-risk investments if you can afford to lose them without serious repercussions. These investments include futures, options, commodities, penny stocks as well as alternative investments like precious metals and gems, collectibles, peer-to-peer lending and cryptocurrencies.
The most important part of this lesson is how to allocate these funds. It is not bad to invest into risky assets, as long as you are making sure to allocate your funds properly by moving them down the pyramid! For more risk management articles, please check them below! Happy investing and trading!
Trade Safe.
X Force
Investing for Beginners 101 - The power of Dollar Cost AveragingInvesting for Beginners 101
---------------------------
How do you build your investment fund?
----------------------------------------
There is no silver bullet to it, and it is easy when you build it across an extended period of time.
Introducing the power of Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)! One of the easiest ways to get started.
DCA is an investment strategy in which you purchase an asset over an extended period of time, to average in at a good price while avoiding the volatility of the market.
This strategy proved to be quite effective for both novice and experienced investors.
How do you do it? Let’s start with the easiest strategy.
Example 1:
-----------
Let’s say you want to invest 1000$ in bitcoin in one month, and you want to scale in twice per week, on Wednesday (W) and Friday (F).
What you would do is divide the 1000$ by 8 (2 times per week over 4 weeks), and you would purchase 125$ on Wednesday and Friday.
You’ll end up with 1000$ worth of BTC by the end of the month.
Easy?
Here’s another example.
Example 2:
-----------
You want to invest 1000$ in bitcoin for one month period, and you want to purchase daily:
You end up splitting 1000$ by 30, and you’d purchase 33$ every day until the end.
The trick here is finding the most optimal strategy, and calculating your average price.
DCA aims to avoid making the mistake of making one lump-sum investment that is poorly timed with regard to asset pricing Investopedia.
There are multiple strategies for DCA’ing into an asset. One way I do it is the following:
After every successful trade, I invest 20% of the profits in both #Bitcoin or #Ethereum (equal split) and transfer another 10% $USDT over to my fund.
Why is DCA effective?
-----------------------
It removes the burden of buying at an optimal price and averages your whole purchases.
Here’s a real example of how I did it at some point.
I purchased on average 24$ worth of $BTC daily in the 9000-9400 range. Now notice that the average price I scaled in: 9175. While the price reached as high as 9400.
Instead of purchasing 1 bitcoin at 13K for example, think how much you would save if you invested while the price fluctuates with time between 11K and 13K. That’s a lot.
DCA works best when the price will eventually rise in the future. And you can truly reap its benefits on a macro scale.
One last note, you do not trade with your investment fund. It’s best to leave it for years to come, and DCA’ing over multiple years into an asset that will increase in price in the next 10 years is the surest way to maximize your exposure to it.
Hope you enjoyed this thread! Until next time 🙂
EDUCATION: Moving Average Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Today we examine another one support line type - moving average support.
Definition
Moving average support line is one of the advanced types support lines. It based on price moving average for any period which can be chosen for every particular case. MA helps to define the trend direction at current moment. If the price closed above the MA for at least ten candlesticks in a row we can identify this situation as uptrend.
How to trade with MA support?
Because the uptrend is identified we cam use the MA and price crossing points as entry points. In our case, when (1), (2) and (3) occurs, the next points from (4) to breakpoint can be used to enter the position. In case of success we will see the price touched and bounced off the MA. In opposite, the price break the MA line down, but the stoploss usage can help to eliminate huge losses.
Summary
1)To identify the uptrend when the price closed above the MA 10 times in row
2)To entry the position when the price touched the MA
3)Fix the profit with it's bounce off the MA
4)Set the stoploss to eliminate the losses in case of sharp price decline
EDUCATION: Trend Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Yesterday we considered the simple support line. Today we continue to examine support types.
Definition
Trend support line occurs where the price is in the uptrend and is formed by the lows on the candlestick chart. Next to this line the price is likely to bounce off it because the demand/supply imbalance.
How to trade with trend support?
When we can draw line which connects 3 lows (1,2 and 3 points), the next lows which are lying on this line can be the properly entry points. Also we need to take a stop loss to eliminate the significant price decline effects. According to the chart this strategy would bring profit at points (4), (5), (6), (7) and (8). The first loss would be at the breakpoint (B), but the stoploss level reduce it.
Summary
1)To define the support line by three points
2)To enter the position next to the line
3)To fix profit in case of success
4)To fix a small loss with the stoploss setup in case of support breakout
4 Rules to Day Trading - Realistic Approach On How To Not LoseHello traders. So you are thinking of day trading as a career? Let's start off with the bad news: it's difficult. Good news? It's doable - if approached with the right mindset. This is a part of my risk management series that I believe many traders can benefit - new or advanced. Day trading involves buying an asset and reselling it for a profit the same day - or for swing traders, a few days. Many people turn to day trading because it’s rewarding when done correctly. But for the faint of heart, many fail to do so and give up - or lose their whole accounts. My job here is to explain to the general public that day trading is not realistic for the faint of heart; however, if you do your research, practice accordingly, day trading can lead to some serious gains.
1. Compare your expected returns
The first step in limiting your losses when day trading is figuring out the expected return on all the trades you’re considering. You can use the following formula to calculate the expected return as also shown above in the diagram
Once you have calculated the expected return on all of your upcoming trades, you can compare the results and choose the trades that offer the most opportunity for profit. Please refer to my previous post on how to calculate the risk reward ratio below this guide.
Manage Your Risk
Managing risk is incredibly important. The best way to limit your day trading losses is to manage individual trades. You should never risk more than 3-5% of your balance on one trade. People tend to go all in. Yes - it gives the maximum gains possible - but often leads to liquidations or a trap that you may never be able to get out! As an example, if you have $10,000 in your trading account, you never want to risk more than $300 on a single trade. By keeping this rule in mind, you know you’ll never lose everything if you happen to have a bad day in trading. More opportunities will come - I promise, especially if you keep this step in mind.
Create a Daily Stopping Point (Risk Reward Ratio (RRR))
Here, you must decide how much you can afford to risk each day. This is very straight forward, but often missed out by many traders, including me! You have a few ways to determine this stopping point. For example, you can plan for the day to stop a trade if you lose 3 percent of your account, or, if you have three losing trades in a row, or, if you lose the sum of your average daily profits. These are just three of my favorite strategies to use. Keep in mind that if you decide to create a stopping point based on your average profits, the amount you can afford to lose will increase over time as you improve your skills.
Use Stop-Loss Orders! (SUPER IMPORTANT)
This is probably one of the most important ones. Even if you don't follow any of the 4 steps above, you can still reduce your total blowout loss by having a stop loss in tact. With a stop-loss order, you can minimize losses by deciding on a specific price that doesn’t go below your tolerance for risk. If the price of your trade reaches the stop-loss, you know it’s time to exit. 99% of traders forget this.
I hope this post helps everyone out!
Please check out my whole risk management series below!
EDUCATION: Simple Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Today we start our Educational series. We are going to public some elements of technical analysis every day.
Definition
The support level is the level which is likely not to be broken down by the price. It is a high probability of the bounce off this level. It occurs because when the price decreases, the demand is rising and the supply is decreasing. As a result the higher demand push the price up.
How to trade with support
We can get into the position on the support line level. For example, at the point (D) we already know that blue line is support (because of points (A) and (B). Also we have to use the stop loss level, if the price will substantially break this level down. If the price broke down the blue support (G), we can wait the yellow line price level to enter the position (3). It is also widely known that the price is likely to return back to the previous support (H)
Summary
1)To define several support levels
2)To get into position on the first one
3)To fix a profit in case of price bounce
4)To fix small stop loss in case of huge breakdown
5)To buy again at the lower support.
It is very effective strategy but there are a lot of cases, when support level definition is impossible.
4 Powerful Tips for Day TradersIn this video I go over 4 powerful trading tips ever trader needs to know!
The tips are simple and if followed can generaate success and profits and most importantly longevity in trading!
Quickly I also go over my active trade, GBPNZD sell.
Anyway, hope you like the video!
📚 Learn More 💰 Earn More with us: FLAG = Impulse + CorrectionFLAG = Impulse + Correction
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After a significant drop in Bitcoin price , the price is in a correction wave.
What makes the chart interesting today is that:
. Bitcoin is likely to challenge the 18042 ~ 18227 resistance area.
. A break above 18227 could push the pair to the 19487 area .
. A resistance rejection , however could lead to another retest of the lower supports.
Will the Bitcoin see a rejection from the resistance area or an upside breakout?
No one knows it! We have to wait and see!
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A Guide to Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) - How To Calculate and SetupHello Traders. Let me start off with a scenario that many - if not all has been through. Have you ever had a series of great trades, only to have one trade to burn your whole capital? It's probably everyone - and a guilty embarrassment that many do not want to admit. It's not bad - it's a learning process. I'm here to talk about how to effectively use stop losses. If you are not using stop losses - you are essentially gambling. You need to learn how to preserve your capital at best.
A stop loss is an absolutely vital tool allowing you to limit your losses when you are trying to increase your probabilities using technical analysis. In my opinion, calculated risk is never going to be 100% risk free; however, It is mandatory on every position if you want to keep your money safe (or safer, haha!). Using a stop loss is like an insurance policy. In case the trade is going wrong (which can most definitely happy), you can be sure that a large part of your capital will be safe (again, keyword being large).
Now, how do you place a stop loss? You are assuming that anyone can just use the stop loss tool and adjust the percentages and risk reward ratio to their likings, right? Wrong. You need to know how to place your stop via proper technical analysis, which is discussed below in a simple manner. Assuming you have a good probability set up, a stop loss allows you to sleep peacefully because a stop loss deletes the stress and allows you doing activities other than trading. You don’t need to monitor your trade every 10 minutes. The less you monitor your trade the less you risk to make mistakes.
Some people will say that stop loss decreases the winning ratio. This is also absolutely wrong. Again, it is ABSOLUTELY wrong. Many traders argue to get 90%-100% of winning trades.
How to place your stop loss:
Place your stop loss according to the market price level according to the suggested ratio of 2:1 as shown in the above diagram. Why 2:1? The RR ratio is the difference between the potential loss and the potential profit of your trade, according to your trade setup. You never want to take a trade if your risk/reward ratio is below 1. A RR of 2 and more is one of the key factors in order to become successful in trading. Imagine the insane performance it would be, if every trade you make had a RR of 2 with 80% of winning trades - that is phenomenal.
Also, I suggest that you never move your stop if the the trade goes wrong - I know many of you are also guilty of this. The only context allowing you moving your stop is if the market goes right in order to secure your profit (also known as, "moving up my stop loss in profit zones").
This is a part of the risk management series that I am creating. If interested, please check all of my great posts below!
Trade Safe.
X Force
The Most Recommended Timeframes to Trade On (Top Down Analysis)Hello traders. Here I would like to take my take on the best timeframes (personally) that I use to trade on. This can apply to all tradable assets - especially for cryptocurrencies.
Weekly Timeframe (1W): Usually one-week traders are known as longterm traders. Usually they are good at analyzing the market from a longer perspective and will usually have a portfolio that is heavily catered towards fundamentals, rather than technicals. They will hold trades from lasting from a week up to even months - and possibly up to years. The advantages to a weekly trader will be that you don't have to always watch the trade; however, it will take longer to realize profits - and that's okay by them. Many new traders tend to avoid this approach because it means longer periods of time before trades are realized. However, by many accounts, trading with a shorter-term (day trading) approach can be far more problematic to execute successfully, and it often takes traders considerably longer to develop their strategy.
One-day Timeframe (1D): These are also known as swing traders. These traders hold positions from days, up to weeks. The advantages for swing traders is that they are usually more geared towards longer term profits and is comfortable with holding a trade overnight. After the trend has been determined on the weekly chart (lower highs and lower lows, for example), traders can look to enter positions on the weekly chart in a variety of ways. Many traders look to utilize price action for determining the overall trend, but indicators can absolutely be utilized here as well.
1H - 4H Timeframes (1H, 4H): These traders are usually known as 'hybrid' intra-day, day, and even swing traders. These two timeframes are usually the best to use indicators as the provide quick data and more data to help learn the process of the larger scale timeframes. These two timeframes are the epitome of creating the larger picture. These traders usually understands the concept of how markets open and closes from a day-to-day perspective. They understand the exposures of 'fake-out' signals. These traders will usually realize profits or losses quickly. After a trader has gained comfort on the longer-term chart, they can then look to move slightly shorter in their approach and desired holding times. This can introduce more variability into the trader’s approach, so risk and money management should be addressed before moving down to shorter time frames.
The best time frame to trade an asset will vary depending on the trading strategy you employ to meet your specific goals. The diagram above shows the time frames used by different traders for trend identification and trade entries.
This is a part of my risk management series, so if you are interested in checking out my other posts, please check below!
📚 💰 Descending Triangle in ETHBTC - "Learn More Earn More" 📚 LEARN MORE
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Descending Triangle Definition:
An Descending Triangle is a type of triangle chart pattern that occurs when there is a support level and a slope of lower high .
It is defined by two lines:
. A horizontal support line running through valleys.
. A Downtrend line drawn through the peaks.
The lower highs indicate more sellers are gradually entering the market and selling pressure increases as price consolidates moving further towards the apex.
An Descending Triangle is classified as a continuation chart pattern.
If price can break through the support level, that level will now act as a resistance level.
Breakouts can also happen in both directions. Statistically, downward breakouts are more likely to occur, but upward ones seem to be more reliable.
In most cases, the sellers will win this battle and the price will break out past the support. But Sometimes the support level is too strong, and there is simply not enough selling power to push it through. Therefore you should be ready for movement in EITHER direction.
ENTRY:
We would set an entry order bellow the support line and above the slope of the lower highs.
TARGET:
Target is approximately the same distance as the height of the triangle formation.
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Is LO in? Here's another stat. to help work it out.Here is another potential way using my 3 MACD's to confirm if LO is in. MACD line & Signal line must be <0. Then take first 3 all rising Histograms <0. Box their price range in blue. Then wait for first single collumn of all Histograms >0. CAVEAT: Data from 8th Nov. Only. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
BITCOIN Minimum Target: $36000 - Full ExplanationGood morning traders! We hope you are having a beautiful day.
🔸Today we want to show you our vision of bitcoin in the short-medium term and explain why we see it extremely bullish.
- Speaking a bit of the context and history, we can see that bitcoin hits all-time highs in late 2017, reaching almost $20,000. After this, there came an abrupt decline that found its lows around $ 3000. From there, the upward movement has been resumed.
- During this year, this crypto has made almost a 200% bullish movement.
- Analyzing the behavior of the chart, we see that it has potential to be a Cup and Handle movement pattern.
🔸Now we go with a little of theory:
- The cup and handle pattern implies a movement in the price that makes a high, a decline correcting movement, a consolidation at lows, and then the subsequent upward recovery. You can clearly see the transition from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs. After this, it needs a retest of the previous highs (double top pattern), and for a bullish corrective move.
🔸Now, does this imply that bitcoin is going to breakout and make an explosive bullish move imminently?
- We do not know, but according to the characteristics of this pattern, no.
- What we should expect is a retest of the Resistance zone (all-time highs), and then a corrective move (flag, triangle, pennant, etc.).
Once formed, the idea is to trade the breakout.
- The MINIMUM target of the movement is calculated by measuring the distance between the minimum of the range and the maximum.
- This calculation gives us a distance of $16500-$16600, which, projecting it upwards, gives us an approximate target of $36000.
Complete Guide to Bitcoin Dominance & Alt Season CyclesHello traders. Here I will be showing a simple diagram of the whole Bitcoin dominance effect towards Bitcoin and Alt coins. The diagram is extremely simplified so that anyone can refer to this chart in the future. Many people have a hard time when an alt season starts; however, understanding the few simple rules of Bitcoin dominance can help you know whether you are in a bull market or not!
In the above diagram, I am showing the complete relationship between BTC Dominance (BTC.D), Bitcoin's price, and Altcoin's price. You can refer to the chart above and use it to your advantage on positioning, timing, and risk management without the whole FOMO ordeal.
So, what is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)? Bitcoin dominance is the percentage that measures Bitcoin’s share of the WHOLE cryptocurrency market capitalization measured in percentages. It is not a 100% perfect metric to use, but it helps to analyze the macro-market since many people like to refer to it - so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is what usually happens if everyone starts to use it. We can observe the total capital (money) flowing between alts and BTC with this chart and make some conclusions about the market’s current state.
The chart above is showing that in most cases you’ll want to be in Bitcoin when Bitcoin Dominance is in an uptrend, and then be in alts when the Bitcoin Dominance is in a downtrend. We are witnessing that right now. When BTC and BTC.D rises, we psychologically assume that we want to be in Bitcoin, which then leads to a decrease in the alt coin market. For those who are interested in more risk management strategies, please look at the links below!
Trade Safe!
X Force
Why Many Continue to "Miss the Train" - Trading 101Hello Traders. Thank you so much for the overwhelming support on the last post - we reached over 1200 likes - a new record and the best post of the month on Tradingview. Here I would like to go over why we all continue to fail buying the dips time after time from a market psychology perspective. This is a big problem for many of the traders, and we are all guilty of it. Let's take a moment to discuss all of the phases as shown in the chart above.
1. Your initial signal is here but you don't take it - because you are waiting for a second confirmation,
2. You wait for a retracement so you can enter into a trade, but doesn't happen,
3. Retracement comes along at the top, but you are thinking that you have already missed the big move,
4. You long at the breakout high, then the market dumps to support, and you think that the top is already in, so you sell,
5. Then it consolidates, then pumps. Price continues up and you start panicking that your approach was wrong.
You are now either positionless or have waited too long after a 300% rally. The most important part of this approach is that you must have an idea of how Bitcoin has behaved over the past years. I have made an extremely detailed plan on where we are on the timeline - which may help with many investor's buying decision:
In this post above, I show that Bitcoin is currently trading in a new bull run. Retracements occur, and it's important to position yourself within the correct timeline. As you can see, with the right indicators, we can position ourself even if we feel that we "missed the train" - as long as you know and can accept we are in a new bull run. Another important aspect is understanding the concepts of accumulation. Accumulations may either lead to a dump or pump, but if you follow the correct overall trend, we can easily see that we were accumulating for the upside.
It's all about positioning! This is a part of my risk management series so please make sure to look at all of the related posts for risk management.
Trade Safe.
X Force