Top out next month like previous example ie. 1 ; 2, or, before?Here's my most recent take. 7 Month MA looks interesting. Will we see top out next month like previous examples i.e. 1 ; 2 , or, before? NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Btc-e
End of dip. Will it confirm this week?Sustaining positive territory not impossible. Histogram, MACD, and soon to be Signal Line. NOT ADVICE. DYOR
How that look on the Monthly
Bull run comparison with 2015-16. Consolidation phases.Here's an idea. One certainty we know is the high of 2017 like the high of 2013. The other certainty we can gauge using Fibonacci retracements. I have used the low of the week the blue MACD line turned positive. The reasoning being that price retreats when it around the first retracement level, and consolidates before the next move up to 50% when it consolidates again. Try it the 2013 high. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 (SPX) connectionPrevious Bitcoin post "End of dip. Will it confirm this week?" Sustaining positive territory not impossible. Histogram, MACD , and soon to be Signal Line. NOT ADVICE. DYOR
See the monthly with S & P 500
Fibonacci lessonHere is a little proof to all the haters that Fibs definitely work. If you do not understand the way fibs work you can send me a private message and I can help you out. They are pretty simple to use. Check out some of my literature if you get bored today at work or something :P medium.com That is my medium account. There are quite a few write ups I have done over the past few months. Everything is free so check it out if you like :)
I hope you all have a great Friday!
The best technology is not the most profitable person!Let's look at a multi-period diagram, which is a powerful feature of TV that no other software has. For the use of multi-period diagram, many people may not know.
In multi-period diagrams, the biggest problem is the inconsistency between periods, which leads to the illusion when used. One cycle is going up, and the other cycle is going down. What do you do with that? Who shall prevail?
Take a look at the current trend. The 1-hour rally is over and we are facing adjustment demand. The 4-hour rally is waiting at the bottom.
Such contrary circumstance, it is more difficult to master to trade.
The correct operation is this, you have to choose an independent cycle according to their own needs, such as you want to do more, then you look at the 1-hour chart is unable to find evidence, you go to 2, 4 hours to find opportunities. And if you want to short, then the hour and day line is the reference.
For most people, trading and analysis are two levels of business. For analysts, we require a comprehensive analysis of the market trend, so many cycle chart is very important, we have to follow up the relationship between the cycles, give a forecast. For traders, the simpler the better, as long as you choose the cycle you want from the trends the analyst gives you.
Of course, we need to know that technology is dead and people are alive. The purpose of our study must be to make money. The so-called "crossing the sea by raft" is not the core.
At the heart of the deal is not technology, but discipline. Otherwise, those who do not look at indicators, do not understand the technology, is not the opportunity? But what we see is often the opposite case, a lot of people make money, but they don't seem to have any exquisite operation technology, more execution. Just like the market yesterday, the indicator prompt is passive, if you wait for the prompt to operate, the moment of the waterfall is difficult to avoid. But from a human point of view, other people are greedy and I'm afraid, so when we remind ourselves of the risks in the morning, the person who falls on the safe side will be the winner. This is the law of the market and the beauty of trading.
The best technology is not the most profitable person!
How to code EMA, understand it by code : Bitcoins :BTCUSDWhat is EMA ?
Ema is known as exponential moving average, it comes from the class of weighted moving average. It gives more weightage to the recent price changes, thus making it much more relevant to the current market analysis. Also it provides a dynamic way of calculating support and resistances in a trend following setup.
The most common way to mint profit out from the market is to use trend following setups which can be easily achieved by using a group of EMA’s
So how’s this EMA calculated ?
Before understanding the calculation of EMA let’s look into a much wider topic:
“The Law of Averages”
It states : If you do something often enough a ratio will appear, simply put, any time series data, tend to deviate from its average.
EMA provides a way to statistically calculate the exponential moving average for a provided time series data giving much more emphasis on the most recent data in the series.
So in the 17th century, when the people were playing with numbers in their free time, they came up with a statistical strategy to envelop any time series data to detect the direction of the data flow , they called it exponential moving average.
Later in 1940’s with the increase in signal processing requirements in the field of electronic devices scientists started using Exponential moving average onto the electronic signal followers, just to classify the signals as above or below a moving/dynamic threshold.
So EMA is a smoothed time-series data.
The simplest form of EMA Smoothing can be given by the formula:
S(t) = alpha * X(t) + (1 - alpha) * X(t - 1).
The value of alpha must lie between 0 and 1
Where
alpha , is the smoothing factor
X(t) , is the current observation data point
X(t - 1), is the past observational data point.
t , is the current time
Generally,
In current day trading setups for EMA the alpha is calculated by
alpha = 2 / (time period window + 1)
Things to note here is that the alpha calculated above is the most generally used factor calculation method for EMA ,
You can tweak the alpha function above until it gives value between 0 and 1 for example alpha can also be written as
alpha = ln ( current price / past price )
Note it’s just a weighing scheme,
But for Our Case of EMA
We will be using
alpha = 2 / (time period window + 1)
Please refer to the script code :
SHARED HERE
BITCOIN vs LITECOIN comparison. Bull market leader shift.Just a quick mention on something interesting I stumbled across while constructing my long term LTCBTC strategy.
During the 2015 recovery phase after the bear market, Litecoin started rising aggressively prior to Bitcoin and led cryptos into the start of the new bull market. At some point it pulled back considerably and BTC started gaining momentum and lead the bull market while LTC entered a prolonged consolidation period. BTC made minor pull backs but never "looked back" on its way to a parabolic rise to the 2017 All Time High.
This is a simple comparison intended to illustrate the shift in market dynamics. We see the very same situation taking place now.
Bitcoin heading over $8,900 into June not impossibe.If you mark all the green candle that were three months up in a row, and then the breakout from the high to the next high marked in pink it gives you some idea of where the current breakout could be heading. NOT ADVICE. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. DYOR.
Note that RATE OF CHANGE turned positive (above zero)
Note price closed above yellow box first time since peak of 2017 (not shown in chart below which was created before closing price).
Retest at some point of 200 MA before hit $7590 not imposibleThe bottom may be in this time round, but a retest at some point of 200 MA before hit $7590 not impossible. What do you think? Question is when? NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Bitcoin -a brief history of the "confirmed" bull markets 2018-19Hi guys!
I have decided to create this diagram to show you, how majority of the crypto community has reacted to every single
counter trend rally (and "trendline break" ) from all time high to present.. I am almost sure that these series are not over and we will see a couple of more "definitely" confirmed bull markets all the way down to real capitulation.
All the best and, take care a stay patient!
-DP-
Forget Bitcoin and watch this textbook TA!Away from the action on BTC and the S&P500, I'm making big profits on hidden gems, like this UK stock. A classic TA inverse head and shoulders setup! Straight out of the dusty textbooks. Strong volume on the left shoulder and weak volume on the right shoulder, just as it should be. I bought just above the breakout line. The breakout is clean, retests to a perfect level and then takes off like a rocket! Beautiful. (and highly profitable).
BTC - Be cautious of the 5th wave. Elliott Wave Psychology Elliott Waves are derived from human psychology of Greed/Fear. Take care when U trade/long 5th waves, most retail traders tend to FOMO here because they missed the initial waves
Note that 5th wave in turn has 5 subwaves, DONT long the 5th subwave of the 5th wave
Reference:- www.profitf.com
Here is an example of possible waves for BTC with the recent uptrend. Where was your entry? Where do you plan to exit? Here are my thoughts
Entries
1) The best, most profitable long entry is at the beginning of wave 1, but its very hard to catch the bottom
2) Wave 2 is good for entries as you can set a stop loss at beginning of wave 1 (In EW, wave 2 can't go below wave 1)
3) Beginning of wave 3 is also a safe area to long, especially when price crosses wave1 top. This is least profitable entry, but safer and easier
Exits
1) Wave 3 top is a safe exit, especially if you entered in wave or wave 2
2) Subwave 3 of the 5th wave is a profitable place for exit but little risky
3) 5th top is the most profitable exit, but also the hardest and riskiest. IMO not worth the extra profit as its always hard to catch the tops
4) 4th waves are usually triangles and tend to be hard to trade
There is always corrective waves (usually ABC) after 5 wave are done, if you weren't able to exit during the 5-wave uptrend, it is ok to exit during the beginning of the A or during the deadcat bounce of B wave
Note that B waves are perfect bull traps, easy way to recognize them is that they have only 3 subwaves instead of 5 subwaves
Hope this helps! Please leave a thumbs up and love to hear your comments
3 months up in a row (see green blocks) Where next?3 days till end of month but does it matter ? Does 3 months up in a row mean the bottom is in ? Was the rise strong enough ? NOT ADVICE DYOR
Here is the weekly with Stochastic RSI
Here is the monthly
Buy Bitcoin using as timing signal VIX Volatility S&P 500 (SPX)Using VIX Volatility S&P 500 (SPX) 20 MA Monthly as timing signal to buy bitcoin Mark 1st month turns up. Mark following month when SPX bar red Mark same Bitcoin above when bar is red - purple horizontal is stop loss & break above blue confirms buy NOT ADVICE DYOR
BTC – A Subtle Art of Setting Stop LossesHi Guys!
We are sure many of you lost money being discarded from your positions even though you correctly predicted the general direction of the price.
It happened to us as well . Many times.
After such event, you feel bad and temporarily freezes from entering the new position because of the fact you feel insecure and you lose your self-confidence .
Unfortunately, many untrusted exchanges take their position in granted .
They see the whole order book and they see our stop losses.
The art of setting them properly is to set them where no other participants do the same.
In such a place, it is very likely our position maintains and we earn money together with manipulative participants of the market.
Unfortunately, that’s the way it is.
The same happens on forex but not in the exchanges but on the brokerage level.
Please take a look at the charts .
Everything is described there.
Please let us know what you think?
Do you have any other interesting strategy?
Remember set your stop-losses at the least obvious place .
Thank you for reading and your time.
MASSIVE Hugs!
WBM Team.
New signal Whipsaw seen biggest moves to date Will we get repeatBitcoin New signal appeared All details on charts Go with BITFINEX $5,404.8 or $5,220 breakout but watch for whipsaw biggest moves like (25-26 JAN18) (28-29 APR18) (27-28 JUL18) (10-11 NOV18) favoured bears but (10-11 DEC18) (22-23 MAR19) favoured bulls Not Advice. DYOR
Include some previous charts showing past performance
This one just the whipsaws
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Insiders Exit Crypto as Shown by USDT SupplyThe chart shows the Bitcoin price and the Tether (USDT) supply, i.e. the number of USDT coins in existence, in blue.
As you can see the supply of Tether was increased by 20% in mid-August 2018. This was to provide liquidity to allow insiders to swap their BTC for USDT for the final exit at 6k. One months later, just days before the massive BTCUSD price spike and Tether price drop on 15 October 2018, they started quietly swapping their USDT for real money ($$$) via the Bank of Tether thus cashing out of crypto.
During this period the supply of Tether dropped -40%. That was approximately $1.2 billion dollars. All the time the price of Bitcoin was maintained stable at about $6400 on average. This was so that insiders (scammers, criminals and assorted scumbags) could continue to sell their Bitcoin for Tether at a good price.
The only instability was an intraday spike to almost $8000. This allowed insiders to load up shorts, but otherwise the price of Bitcoin was stable until the insiders were finished cashing out of crypto in mid-November (bottom of red arrow). THEN and ONLY THEN did the Bitcoin price drop, IMMEDIATELY.
WHAT A MIRACULOUS COINCIDENCE.
Interesting is that the Network hash rate (yellow) peaks when the the Tether supply (blue) peaks way before in August, i.e. before the price (candles) crashes.
The so called hash war with BSV (red) vs BCH and Wright vs Ver was really not relevant imo, in other words just a cover story for dumping. (BTC hash rate in yellow)
Masterplan going a tad awryAll part and parcel of the securitization and commoditization of a new asset class obviously NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Do you believe in Bitcoin Fractals? If so then take your pick!I am going to keep it simple on this one. After all Bitcoin is not a complicated asset, it follows the same patters and cycles again and again (longer term to a greater extent).
So if you are into Fractal Analysis I have something for you that may be of interest. Since the December bottom we have a steady rise. Steady and not aggressive/ parabolic as BTC is still in the Accumulation Phase will most likely stay there for quite some time before it breaks or makes new All Time Highs again.
Steady price action calls for clearer patterns with more standard entry/ exit points. So I attempted to break down this steady rise into 3 Fractals, all having as a common factor the duration, which is approximately 53 days. Assuming the current one (3rd in succession) lasts for 53 days as well, what remains to be calculated is the relative price action within.
If it follows Fractal A then it (Fractal C) should make an equally steady decline of around -22%.
If it follows Fractal B then it (Fractal C) should trade sideways within 4900 and 5500 until its completion.
If I am taking a pick I would go with Fractal A mainly because it (Fractal C) is close to Double Topping around the same time (22 days). Also the rise from their bottoms is more close.
Take your pick and let me know what you think in the comments section!
P.S. For the record (because you may misinterpret my approach), MA analyses and Fractal pull back levels are only suitable for buy on the low, sell on the high to short/ medium term traders. Long term investors (like me) should keep what they already have on their portfolio and stick to adding/ accumulating Bitcoins on those pull backs.
In the meantime, feel free to take a look at some related material on BTC:
