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Why the Bitcoin Halving Historically Increases PriceThe bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, is encoded into Bitcoin itself. Its purpose is to cut in half the amount of Bitcoin that is rewarded for every block that is mined, meaning you must double the processing power every four years to mine the same amount of Bitcoin. (A block reward refers to the number of bitcoins you get if you successfully mine a block of the currency . Investopedia 2023 ) This means that it becomes twice as hard for bitcoin miners to mine the same amount of bitcoin they were mining four years earlier with the same hardware. This creates what is known as a drop in supply or supply shock, where market demand either stays the same or increases, and the price of bitcoin must increase to meet the demand. If the demand stays the same or increases, the price still has to increase because the supply of bitcoin being mined daily is half what it was in the previous four years. There are fewer coins to buy, so the market must compete by paying higher prices. Because this event is exponential, eventually hardware will not be able to keep up with the halving if miners want to be profitable. This may seem like an oversimplification of the most basic economic principles. However, that is what is fundamentally encoded into bitcoin, which guarantees an increase in price by cutting supply every four years (guaranteed only if demand stays the same or increases). That is why bitcoin halving is referred to as a market-moving event, because not only historically has it proven to increase prices and cut supply, but fundamentally it has too. Now let’s look at a real-life example for comparison. Gold does have real-world use in technology and jewelry. However, its main value and use are as a store of value. Most gold is bought and accumulated because it will retain its value, which is the same use case as bitcoin. What do you think would happen if the entire gold production market was slashed in half overnight and this process was repeated every four years? The price of gold would increase exponentially as the finite resource becomes more and more scarce because it is harder to mine. Now apply the same logic to bitcoin, and hopefully you will begin to see the picture. The next bitcoin has just under 60 days coming up in mid-April 2024, so mark your calendars.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by altsandislands
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
74
Examples of how to draw and use trend linesHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (1W chart) Usually, the way to draw a trend line is to connect the high point and the high point where the trend changes, or to connect the low point and the low point to display the trend line. Then, a channel is formed to express movement within that channel. It is a relatively simple analysis tool that anyone with a good understanding of charts can draw trend lines. However, I think whether you can use it in actual trading depends on how much you trust the trend line. However, due to the nature of the trend line, it is expressed as a diagonal line, so it has a fundamental problem that it is not easy to respond even if it deviates from the trend line. So, in order to trade with information obtained from chart analysis, you must draw support and resistance points close to the horizontal line. Therefore, in chart analysis, you must have a basic understanding of the candle arrangement. In my chart, the StochRSI indicator is 1. Use the waves of the StochRSI indicator to check support and resistance at support and resistance points. 2. Used to draw trend lines. When drawing a trend line with the StochRSI indicator, the oversold section is below 20, the overbought section is above 80, and the trend line is drawn by connecting the points where the vertices are created. However, the trend line drawn between high points is drawn based on the opening price of the falling candle. Therefore, draw a trend line by selecting the peak of the StochRSI indicator or the opening price of the nearest bearish candle. You can draw a trend line by connecting the low points of candles corresponding to the vertices of the trend line, which is drawn by connecting the low points. For detailed instructions, please refer to the trend line displayed on the chart. Among the trend lines drawn on the chart, I think that the trend line drawn almost horizontally is actually important. Otherwise, I think it is a trend line drawn for chart analysis because it is difficult to use diagonal trend lines for trading. In order to utilize a trend line expressed as a diagonal line, support and resistance points must be displayed together to be considered a trend line that can be used for trading. When using various chart tools that are used by specifying a selection point, how the selection point is specified is very important. Therefore, if the criteria are not clear when specifying the selection point, what is drawn using various chart tools cannot be trusted. To solve this problem to some extent, we used the StochRSI indicator to draw a trend line. (1D chart) If you look at the trend lines drawn on the 1D chart, you can see that the two trend lines at the current price position are drawn close to the horizon. Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained by breaking above the trend line of 1. If this is not the case and it falls below trend line 2, it can be seen that there is a high possibility that it will lead to a further decline. In that sense, the key is whether it can rise above the HA-High indicator, that is, above 43K. If it falls, it is likely to touch the HA-Low indicator, so it is important to check for support near the HA-Low indicator when it is generated. When drawing a trend line using the StochRSI indicator, vertices formed outside of oversold or overbought areas are excluded. The reason is that the upward or downward intensity is weak. This is to prevent confusion because if the rising or falling strength is weak, it is likely to be a fake or whipsaw. It is important to draw in a way that has a solid basis so that you can trust the tools you draw on the chart. StochRSI settings : 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D) Have a good time. thank you -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points upward. Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched. If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
DWEB levels and local price trends #BTC This chart is for intermediate DWEB users for learning purposes and or for followers to use for trading this local price action. If trends fail look for the next trends and levels for confluence against a system you already trust. Trends are #1 and levels are #2. Trade this chart with more trust as the price respects the lines and or this chart aligns with your other charts (confluence). By using the nodes and trends from DWEB , I was able to cast some unique visuals in terms of trends and levels. Using different candle intervals can often provide some hidden data. Often when you inverse the default intervals and indicators , you unhide even more data that is unseen by most. DWEB is very strict in it's parameters and often only makes minor adjustments between macro and micro charts. The thresholds of ranges where DWEB makes wider changes to its parameters is listed below. 1 to 314 minutes 314 to 888 minutes 888 minutes to 1444 minutes 1D TO 3 D 3D to 1W 1W to 9D. With DWEB on
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CaptBlackBeard
Introduction to one of the basic trading methodsHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- Basic trading method (How to purchase) 1. Aggressive buying when falling by more than -10% 2-1. Buy when there is an upward trend on the 1D chart (when the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator) and when the candle is a downward candle. 2-2. Buy when there is a downward trend on the 1D chart (when the price is maintained below the MS-Signal indicator) and when the candle breaks upward through important support and resistance points. Therefore, buy when there is a rising candle. (Selling method) 1. Split sale when it rises by more than +10% 2. Split selling when the high point cannot be renewed ------------------------------------------------- The basic trading methods introduced above are methods that can be traded even if you are not familiar with chart analysis. Among these, I will take the time to explain the trading method corresponding to 2-2 of the purchasing method. You can know the trend based on the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. Currently, it has fallen below the MS-Signal indicator, and the MS-Signal indicator has been converted to a downward indication. Therefore, it should be interpreted that there is a high possibility that the current downward trend will continue. Therefore, in the basic trading method, you should buy when the candle is below the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, that is, when it is in a downtrend. Therefore, you should buy after confirming that the price breaks above the support and resistance points. Basically, you can trade using HA-High, HA-Low indicators and box sections. If you purchased when it fell more than -10% on January 12, you can proceed with a second purchase if it rises above the HA-High indicator. You can proceed with aggressive buying when the HA-High indicator breaks above the 43450.03 point. In that case, you will have to sell it in installments when it appears to be rising and then falling. If you don't like it, you should check for support at 43450.03. In order to confirm support, it is necessary to check for at least 1-3 days after rising above 43450.03. Have a good time. thank you -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points upward. Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched. If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Time is everythingA lot of people see a Bitcoin pullback, a drop or a red candle as a negative thing. Clearly this is lack of experience, lack of understanding and only ever seeing re-assurance of the one bias they can comprehend. Many people believe my posts to be negative or anti Bitcoin - you could not be more wrong, as a very early holder, I simply don't care - up down or sideways. It's been kind to me and I will say it was more luck than judgement. Right place, right time. But as a professional trader, money manager and tech investor - I have seen my fair share of market trends, hype, realism and shocks in the market to know. Time is all it takes. You can go back over SPX for example and If you buy and hold the trend has only been up. Obvious its one of indices designed to go up. This does not make it a "get rich quick scheme" For me the problem lies in the cult esq mentality and the desire to get rich quick. When you have, or manage a larger fund - time is always less of an issue, when a Limited partner of a fund told me the company hold period was 15-20 years on average, it took a while to let that sink in. 1% of a lot of money is a lot of money, 1% of a $10,000 pushes you to want more - hence jumping on the up only bandwagon. You need to remember; Last year I posted two options for Bitcoin; I said my preferred route put us in early stage accumulation. The second option went back even further than that, it's the Evil move I said I would hope Composite Man would not be as cruel. Unfortunately with the move from 32k to 48k region, it's clear now the second play has in-fact been the one playing out. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- So here's some rational logic - the medicine most DO NOT WANT to swallow. People seem to throw the same argument - ETF & Halving - They have very little else to contribute. So let's look at what an ETF is and does. An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) itself doesn't inherently stabilize an asset. However, the structure and mechanics of an ETF can have certain features that may contribute to perceived stability or liquidity in the underlying assets it represents. Here's how: Diversification: ETFs often hold a diversified portfolio of assets. By pooling together various assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities, they spread risk. This diversification can help mitigate the impact of poor performance in a single asset on the overall value of the ETF. Arbitrage Mechanism: ETFs have a unique creation and redemption mechanism. Authorized Participants (usually large financial institutions) can create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, usually known as creation units. This process involves exchanging a basket of assets for ETF shares or vice versa. This helps to keep the market price of the ETF close to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its underlying assets, promoting stability. Liquidity: ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, providing investors with liquidity. The ability to buy or sell shares throughout the trading day at market prices contributes to the perception of stability. The underlying assets might not be as easily tradable, but the ETF itself can be bought or sold like a stock. Market Makers: In the secondary market, market makers play a crucial role in providing liquidity. They continuously quote buy and sell prices for the ETF shares, helping to ensure that there is a smooth and efficient market. This can reduce the impact of large buy or sell orders on the market price. Now for some extra therapy, we also need to look at the realistic timeframes these large players operate at. Blackrock's most popular ETF is their SPX (S&P500) fund. with it's inception around 2001 I believe. $354BN. Now if we look at Bitcoin's market cap - we dropped from $1.3 Trillion at the 69k High down to around 300Billion at the 15k low region. So working out market cap is simple current price of Bitcoin x coins in circulation. (just over 19m). This is just highlighting the obvious; Blackrock is not going to empty the SPX fund and stick $350Billion in a newly established fund. Again time, they have enough money to not need to force or risk anything on a large scale. But what is interesting is the point above about market makers. In Wall Street terms, a market maker is a financial institution or individual that facilitates the buying and selling of financial instruments in a market. Market makers play a crucial role in ensuring liquidity and maintaining orderly trading in financial markets, including stock exchanges. Here are key aspects of what market makers do: Liquidity Providers: Market makers stand ready to buy or sell a financial instrument (such as stocks, bonds, or options) at publicly quoted prices. This activity provides liquidity to the market, allowing investors to execute trades quickly and efficiently. Bid and Ask Prices: Market makers quote bid and ask prices for a security. The bid price is the price at which they are willing to buy, and the ask price is the price at which they are willing to sell. The difference between these prices is known as the bid-ask spread. Order Execution: When an investor places a market order to buy or sell a security, the market maker ensures that the trade is executed promptly by matching it with their own inventory or finding a counterparty in the market. Risk Management: Market makers take on some level of risk by holding an inventory of securities. To manage this risk, they continuously adjust their bid and ask prices based on market conditions and changes in the supply and demand for the securities. Arbitrage Opportunities: Market makers may engage in arbitrage, exploiting price differences between related financial instruments or markets. This helps ensure that the prices of the same or similar securities are consistent across different trading venues. Maintaining Orderly Markets: Market makers contribute to the overall stability and efficiency of financial markets by preventing excessive volatility and ensuring a continuous flow of trading. It's important to note that market makers profit from the bid-ask spread and trading volumes. While they facilitate trading and provide liquidity, they also manage their own risks. Market makers can be institutions like investment banks or specialized firms with expertise in particular markets. They play a crucial role in the smooth functioning of financial markets by facilitating the buying and selling of securities. ============================================= Market makers have been referred to another type of Composite Man. The term "Composite Man" is associated with the Wyckoff Method, a technical analysis approach to understanding the stock market. The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard D. Wyckoff, a stock market trader and educator from the early to mid-20th century. According to this method, the Composite Man represents a hypothetical market manipulator or a group of large market participants who have the power to influence the market. In Wyckoff's view, the Composite Man is an entity that accumulates or distributes stocks in a way that leaves footprints on the price and volume charts. The actions of the Composite Man are believed to be observable through the analysis of price and volume patterns, helping traders and investors anticipate potential future price movements. Here are the key ideas associated with the Composite Man in the Wyckoff Method: Accumulation and Distribution: The Composite Man is thought to go through phases of accumulating or distributing a particular stock or market. During accumulation, the Composite Man is buying, and during distribution, they are selling. Wyckoff Price Cycle: The Wyckoff Method outlines a price cycle that includes phases such as Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Traders using this method attempt to identify these phases on price charts to make more informed decisions. Smart Money: The Composite Man is sometimes referred to as the "smart money" because it is assumed to have more information and resources than individual retail traders. Monitoring the actions of the smart money is believed to provide insights into potential market trends. When I posted posts like this from the 65k high, it was due to these footprints being visible from space. As the price moved up from the 28k region to the current ATH. Similar thing. I am not here trying to drag it or you down, I am here trying to help see logic in the charts. As the move moved up, we had a fake ETF release, in essence thus pricing in the actual ETF. This is why for me, this scenario is the most likely in the current environment. Composite Man/Market makers are happy to use the fear and greed index, which is currently tilting heavy towards the greed side. Against retail traders who see ONLY UP as the only scenario available. The space is becoming more like a cult and it's feel more and more like the simple definition of a pyramid scheme. Again, I am not saying that's what it is - I am in at the bottom my cards are on the table. The space has become "if your friends join, they also need to invite more people, and the cycle continues. The person at the top gets money from everyone below, and the people at the bottom hope to make money by bringing in more people." The problem is, there's no real product or service being sold. The only way people make money is by getting others to join. Eventually, it becomes harder for everyone to find new people, and those at the bottom end up losing money because there aren't enough new members to support the structure. This kind of scheme is not fair or sustainable and can cause a lot of people to lose their money. Especially when the big boys get involved with very little regulation covering the people at the bottom. Just remember everyone was saying "anti banks, anti institutional yet celebrating the ETF's like a win" the issue here is it's likely to stabilise the asset, slowing the phases and cycles down to a more mellow growth curve over the next 20 years. In the grand scheme of things, it's great for the industry, but we can expect more manipulation prior to regulation, post regulation the percentage gains will narrow. Keep all of this in mind and remember it's what the majority wanted. Stay safe! have fun and see you on the next post. Hate comments always welcome - just please back them up with some logic and show you have more than 3 brain cells. 😉 Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
20
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. CorrelationIn the graph, combined into one graph of the dominance of such stablecoins as USDT and USDC. Orange color—chart of the bitcoin price against the dollar. The time interval is 1 week. The graph is logarithmic. The same chart and the same parameters on the candlestick chart . All BTC price lows and highs are specially shown. Compare what the capitalization of stablecoins was at the time. At an earlier time, the dominant stablecoin was one USDT, later USDC was added. They occupy a significant capitalization. BUSD and DAI are less capitalized. They too can be added to this “indicator” of the Pumps/Dumps market. I think the dominance history and the bitcoin overlay chart illustrate well which market phase and in which areas to buy and sell bitcoins and other speculative crypto coins. Centralized Stablecoin capitalization of a decentralized market . Sounds crazy, doesn't it? The dominance of centralized in a decentralized market. The 3rd,4th,6th places are naturally occupied by centralized stablecoins such as: #USDT #USDC #BUSD. This kind of decentralized cryptocurrency financial world (freedom from the dictatorship of banks, power states, and so on) did you imagine, for example, in 2015-2017? Is it good or bad? What will happen after a while? What trend will develop further after the community bait has been swallowed? 3rd place . USDT ( .... "Reds" .... ) $67,562,687,657 4th place . USDC (Circle, Coinbase, JPMorgan, Blackrock .... ) $51,726,419,583 6th place . BUSD (Binance) $20,003,320,692 13th place DAI ETH (!) BTC and ETH dominance. Continuing on this “democracy” theme of crypto sandbox capitalization. Today 14 09 2022. Market Cap: $989,560,104,72 Dominance: #BTC: 38.9% #ETH: 19.9% Total 2 assets: 58,7% Also add 3,4,6,13 top stablecoins to this. Stablecoins over 20%. Almost 60% of the market is 2 assets. Over 80% of the market is 6 assets. So much for the true mythology of decentralization ))). How to look for a “live chart” for yourself and combine the dominance of USDT and USDC: 1) Look for the MARKET CAP USDT DOMINANCE, % 2) On the right side of the chart in the search field, press the + button 3) Write MARKET CAP USDC DOMINANCE, %. For the analysis, it will also be useful to track at the same time: 1) BTC dominance 2) US dollar index (DXY, USDX) BTC dominance BTC to altcoin dominance. Stablecoin dominance and market pamp. US Dollar Index (Fed)with prices of BTC lows/maxims. Correlation of assets. DXY and PampDump BTCMarkets Cycles. This is what it looks like on a line chart to illustrate simple correlation things. Preparedness for force majeure. I would also like to say that all stabelcoins are focused on the "stability" of the U.S. dollar. Think about what would happen if, for some reason, that stability were to be undermined in the blink of an eye. Then you are faced with a very difficult choice. What to do? Sell/buy cryptocurrency/shares? Just think ahead "What do you do" if, purely hypothetically, for some fantastic, hard-to-imagine reasons this happens. Think ahead in today's calm time (are you sure it's not calm now?), so you won't be caught off guard in a turbulent time.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DEducation
by SpartaBTC
24
Chart analysis and trading strategy are differentHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) The key is whether it can receive support around 36426.87 and rise to the first resistance zone. This period of volatility will be around November 16 (November 15-17). If it fails to rise above 36426.87, it is important to see whether support can be found around 32917.17-34110.32. In order for this upward trend to be maintained, the price must be maintained above 29850.45. If you have analyzed the chart with the above information, the important question is how to start trading, that is, how to create a trading strategy. First, I decided that I could start buying when I saw support at a certain point or section through chart analysis, but I realized that I had to make several more decisions to actually buy. 1. Should I buy it in installments? If I buy it in installments, how many installments will I buy it in? 2. How much investment should be made when purchasing? 3. How to set the investment period between day trading and long-term trading. 4. When starting a transaction, how will you decide on a trading method, such as a stop-loss point or target point, and how will you realize profits? As in the example above, in order to make a transaction, you need to think about and decide on many things. However, when the chart analysis is completed and the time to buy comes, buy with a rough investment amount, roughly think about the stop-loss point and target point, and start trading. And then, if the chart moves as expected, it's good, but if it doesn't, then you have to worry about the above. Then, I think that because your thoughts are influenced by price fluctuations, you end up trading in the wrong direction, increasing the chances of your trading failing. Therefore, you must have some basic understanding of trading strategy to be able to trade quickly. The concept of a basic trading strategy can be customized to suit you using the example below. 1. The purchase principal, purchase method, selling method, stop-loss point determination method, and profit realization method must be standardized for each investment period. Therefore, the basic concept of investment period from day trading to long-term trading must be determined in advance. However, since each coin (token) responds differently, it is not easy to divide them accurately. Therefore, you must first consider the size of the purchase principal and stop loss point for each investment period. 2. Trading must ultimately proceed with a contrarian approach. Therefore, you should not proceed with trading by thinking the way you normally think. Therefore, when the price rises, you must choose a point to sell, and when the price falls, you must choose a point to buy. However, if you are new to trading, you want to buy when the price is rising and sell when the price is falling. Since trading requires such a change in thinking, it is not easy to get used to it. Therefore, it is necessary to take time to become familiar with trading by making many transactions with small investments until this change in thinking occurs naturally. 3. Trading is a psychological battle. Therefore, if you start trading psychologically, you will feel psychologically anxious and burdened, and there is a high possibility that you will proceed with trading in the wrong direction. Therefore, when you are about to start trading, you need to determine what your psychological state is like. If you are judged to be psychologically excited, that is, anxious, you should not start trading. Even if you start trading once or twice and make a profit, if you continue to trade while you are in a psychologically anxious or excited state, you will end up incurring large losses. 4. Additionally, trading is a game of probability. Therefore, you must select a trend by combining various information obtained through chart analysis. Therefore, the information obtained from chart analysis must contain a lot of objective information. The analysis techniques that you study, such as wave theory or other patterns, ultimately have no choice but to be applied to your own psychology. Therefore, rather than such information, you should start trading by selecting a higher direction or trend by combining the basic information obtained by using the chart indicators, that is, objective information. There are a ton of chart analysis techniques out there. However, I think that analysis techniques that have a selection point that you must choose are essentially useless if you are not prepared for the three psychological warfare mentioned above because it is highly likely that your psychology will be applied in the end. Looking at the ideas currently published on TradingView, there seem to be a lot of wave theory and harmonic pattern analysis techniques. These analysis techniques are excellent analysis techniques and have been proven by many users. However, if you do not have a trading strategy like the one I mentioned earlier, you have no choice but to analyze charts and conduct other transactions. Therefore, before studying various chart analysis techniques, you must first study the concepts of candles, moving averages, support and resistance. Then you need to practice creating a trading strategy. Once you are able to create a trading strategy to some extent, I think it would be a good idea to study various high-level chart analysis techniques. In fact, if you can create a trading strategy, there is no need for advanced chart analysis techniques. As I have said repeatedly, the more time you invest in chart analysis, thinking that chart analysis is the same as a trading strategy, the more you will inevitably feel the limitations of your trading skills. This is because there are many cases where you cannot proceed with trading as you analyzed, so you have no choice but to be negative about trading. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
2
important to check whether there is support or resistanceHello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- From the moment we start trading, a mental war of attrition begins. Even if you create a trading strategy in many cases before starting trading, the mental battle of attrition due to price fluctuations begins after you start buying. In order to win this mental war of attrition, a plan to lower the average purchase price is inevitably needed. Therefore, concluding a purchase in one transaction can easily result in losing the mental battle of attrition. This phenomenon is clearly evident in futures trading. In order to reduce this formal war of attrition, it is recommended to refrain from breakout trading whenever possible. Looking at the example chart, I've marked several support and resistance points. We know that in most cases, it is not too late to check support and resistance at these support and resistance points and proceed with the transaction. However, when the price fluctuates, a mental war of attrition begins as trading proceeds immediately without checking basic support and resistance. I believe that this phenomenon is caused by anxiety caused by one's own greed. In order to reduce these conflicting elements, it is necessary to practice checking for support and resistance at the points of support and resistance. We use several methods to check for support and resistance. No matter which method you use, the most important thing is to remember that the method that suits you is best. Basic support and resistance can be outlined to some extent by checking the 1D chart for at least 1 to 3 days. If a trend appears after this period, it corresponds to a coin (token) that shows rapid movements in the short term. Otherwise, you will see sideways movements for about 7 to 10 days. However, since the coin market allows trading 24 hours a day, it is quite difficult and difficult to check support and resistance for at least 1 to 3 days. This leads to rapid transactions, resulting in a formal war of attrition. There is no special way to check for support and resistance. The know-how you gain depends on how many transactions you have made. Also, it is important to think in advance about how you will respond when support and resistance appear in the opposite direction of what you expected. I think the reason trading is called gambling is because this method cannot be defined. So, I think there are people who say that it is a game with a 50% chance of going up or down. However, these thoughts will gradually disappear as you create a response strategy according to price fluctuations through studying charts and trading strategies learned through many transactions. Ultimately, whether you accept the know-how you gain by conducting many transactions at your own will as your own and whether you correct your mistakes will ultimately determine the success or failure of the transaction. - Can you create the necessary support and resistance points or sections to check whether there is support or resistance? - Even if the support and resistance points or sections were selected incorrectly, can you trust the support and resistance points or sections and find a response plan? Chart study must be done to satisfy the above contents. Terms, patterns, and trends on charts only serve to modify your trading strategy while trading. In the end, we must not forget that everything begins by checking the support and resistance at the support and resistance point or section. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
3
Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools. However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced. During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading? I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away. ============================================================== "The Wall Street Jungle" Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry. Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances. Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes. What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory. "Trading in the Zone" By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset. This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one. "The Wealth of Nations" Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics. In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society. For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit. "The Go-Giver" Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories. self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals. The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver." The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market. "The Zurich Axioms" A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management. The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets. For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets. "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies. In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly. I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books. "How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities" And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities. For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal. "Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe" A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets. The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles. If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say. "Master the art of Trading" By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible. This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques. "The Intelligent Investor" a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing." The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation. I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage. ===================================================================== I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
CRYPTO 101 // Introduction to Crypto, a deep dive !♠ CryptoMarket 101 in a Single Article 🏳BULL, BEAR, ACCUMULATION periods in crypto, 🏳CYCLES (cyle), TREND START-END ZONES, 🏳MARKET PSYCHOLOGY, 🏳DO'S AND DON'TS, LONG TERM WORK... This is going to be a very long article, you can think of it as updating my older articles and reviews into a single piece. Lots of technical-basic details, lots of graphics and examples... Here goes. A brief background for first time readers. Since 2017, I have been in the crypto market. Here I share what I know and experience. In general, in the market; I am trading in a long-term-guaranteed structure. My explanations are also aimed at this. -Since the topics are long, the table of contents I want to create -Market Cycles -Bull -Bear -Accumulation -News and Media -Trend turns -Market Psychology -What needs to be done to win -Who can't win and why -Cycles/Trends -Cycles in Bitcoin and Altcoins -How do we identify Buying Zones? -How do we identify large buying zones How to recover losses? -Buy and sell (trade) or buy and forget (HODL)? BULL-MONTH-ACUMULATION PERIODS IN MARKETS and INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE MARKET These phases follow each other, although they vary in duration. In this way, cycles are formed. As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will continue. This is the purpose of the stock market. Subscribe to DeepL Pro to edit this document. Visit www.DeepL.com for more information. For success: First of all, you need to understand what the stock market is, its structure, its periods. You should know the trends and that the falls and rises will end at some point. ACCUMULATION PERIOD The dull, no-gain zone for small investors, which follows the sharp declines of the bear period and is partly characterized by a more horizontal sawing. For large investors, it is the pre-bullish period, when the market gathers assets at low prices without much notice. Depending on the internal dynamics of the market, this period may be longer or shorter than the bear. (EXAMPLE) :The disbelief and suckers rally periods on Wall street cheet. This is where most small investors fall out of the game and get the final slap in the face. Heavy flow of bad news in this region there are. Those who don't know much about the market get fed up with them. In this already sideways and unprofitable period, there is a lot of shaking and reversals. Those who can get through this part are now on their way to earnings. Remember, the purpose of this zone is to collect your stock cheaply so that you can sell it at a higher price in the future. So the market shows no mercy here. Do not expect mercy! The best thing to do in the accumulation zone is to be patient and cost as much as possible At this point, the thought of selling and buying a little lower can lead you to a mistake. You can see this from those who sell around 16-17-18k because it will fall to 10K. When the price rises to 25k levels, I wonder if I missed it, will it go from here, will I enter, thoughts of whether to enter will tire you and lead you to error. Do not try to look for a bottom point. Trend bottoms, turning points can be detected more or less. For example, bitcoin has been falling since $69K. You can say that it is appropriate to cost under 20k. You have the chance to create sub-20k costs for about 9 months, a very sufficient time So far we have seen $15.5k as the lowest point. It should have been bought at those levels. Will 13 come? What difference does it make? Are you trying to get rich with the $2000 in between, you can't. This effort is pointless. Also, know a little bit about what you are investing in. Don't jump in on a whim, in a moment of excitement, just because someone says so. Pay attention to past experience. Too much experience is important in the stock market. BULL SEASON Did the bull come? You hear this question all the time. It's a process and I'm going to explain this process in my own way. The bull has started from the red candle at the bottom to the next green candle. The Taurus period is actually a sufficient period to make money. But the feeling it leaves in people is that it is very short. Firstly, we want it to last longer, we can't get enough :) secondly, it ends quickly because we join the majority towards the end. The rise periods of altcoins are relatively shorter than bitcoin. The reasons for this; their historical past is short, many of them are cyclical (trend), many phenomenal expert analysts arise in the most garish last periods of the bull period. Since they outnumber the quality people, they also outnumber the people they interact with. New entrants have no chance to make this distinction. In the end, they pay for it with their money. This is the same in Turkey, the US and Japan. It is the same even in country stock exchanges within certain limits (rules). At the moment Look at the stock exchange and you will understand directly. An environment where money is made from money is inevitable. is the result. Manipulation, speculation is a sine qua non (I am not praising, I am stating the existing situation). The environment of quick gains, high excitement and easy money breeds scammers and victims. For someone to make money, large groups have to lose money. Usually the big losers are uninformed new investors. In order for the last losers to win, newcomers have to enter the market (new cycle). (new cycle) Bullish period is why novices are braver and earn more in this phase. Because they have no previous negative experience and they have started their transactions in a positive environment, everything is rosy. Whatever you put your hand on is going up. So the market allows it. The person who has experienced the bear market for a long time cannot show this courage. Because he has been burned once. He approaches every project cautiously, he does not trust easily. He is too protective. His first goal is to protect his money, whether he realizes it or not. It is not easy to get out of the psychology created by prolonged declines. -This psychology may continue until the increases are finalized and the bullish trend is accepted. The biggest motivation of the bullish period is to make as much money as possible. is to lock in goods to too many people at peak prices. The bear season is about taking back the goods that have been locked in at the lowest prices. -That's why the great news is at its peak, the worst destructive and the news comes at the bottom. This is infallible. Stock market failures, delisting coins. Hacking incidents, country bans, You have to wait for the delist fury etc. If the bull at the end of the market and continue if you're going to do it, you have to do it. But by taking advantage of the wait. You don't have to learn everything. Even if you learn 2 indicators in great detail, it is enough at first. Short It is difficult to be a master in time, it requires experience. but, if you learn to make the best use of 2-3 data your success will increase. Think long term, not short term. In a week It is not important to win in a month. In one year, in two years it's important to be able to win and keep it. As gambling not as an investment What it takes to win is plain and simple, it's hard is to be able to implement them. BEAR PERIOD People who enter the market at the tail end of upturns often lose, and prolonged downturns (bear period) with a bad psychology and move away from the market. Large groups come to the market when prices are at their highest, everyone is talking about the market, advertising and good news are abundant and euphoria is at its peak. This is the last phase of the upswing. There is no one left to enter the market anyway. At first it is not clear that this is the top. Over time, the decline deepens. As the price falls, new inappropriate for investor cost-cutting starts buying at points. As the decline period extends the damage grows. Regrets begin, never again the belief that it will not rise Now the damage is done and the investment has melted down. According to the loss The depression and anger experienced varies. Most people leaving the market at this point with a big loss. From the top coins that he's been holding without selling, usually at the bottom. sells angrily at levels Others lose hope and interest. Because money is has fallen so low that its increase means nothing. will not. Right now maybe you are saying: I wish bitcoin at $3000 in the past. I got in for 100 bucks when I first got in. I wish I had. It wasn't that easy. It wasn't that day, either. It wasn't that day. that $3000 that you say you would have gotten if you'd bought people's sunken blood. crying. As bad as it is today, it was just as bad then. it was bad. In fact, 2018 was even worse than that. I would say it is. Nobody will tell you that the market that he will return. With all the data we have we can make mathematical predictions. From this point the first thought was that I would buy from there. it seems appropriate at first, but it's an incomplete approach. I will say this. Our emotions can be manipulated can be, but not so many technical data, charts, graphs, indicators cannot be manipulated. Leaving your emotions on the sidelines Read, study and try to act accordingly. Objective thinking from someone who has suffered continuous losses is difficult But somewhere resetting the mind and looking from the outside to win. This is what it takes to win. After all, the money is now lost. Now the line to the past and look to the future. With the money you have left you'll think you're starting from scratch. you'll shape it Past mistakes will only serve as a lesson. Especially near the bottom and even lower that it's a very, very good thing. Because trust lost. The investor is not affected by the market (He/she can't think.) It's gonna go higher when it's going up and lower when it's going down. likely to fall further) To lose once and get out of the psychology of it it's hard to overcome. Emotions come into play. You can become a slave to greed and anger This is how the bottom has to be. Old thrills, goals are forgotten Despair and apathy overtake the small investor. One by one, the 10x and 100x targets lower than the level we are at. This one that you see around you at the moment. I've never had a goal of 12k, 9k. Did you hear last year? When I was over 45k. I've never heard from anyone. "PSYCHOLOGY" Let's go back to emotions. I see this a lot in the market, people talking about coins with enthusiasm, There are those who hate coins. They are inanimate beings, don't approach them with hate or love. Just because you lose from a coin doesn't make it bad, just because you win doesn't make it good. Or the fact that a coin has not increased for a long time does not mean that it will not increase in the future. There is no certainty at this point. Yes, it may be a finished project or it may just be waiting for its time to come. We stay away from definitive judgments, positive or negative. Flexibility gives you an advantage. More As I mentioned before, there is never innocence in the stock market and in making money from money. The market is never free. '' But this time it's different. "Every person in every era by a man. And it has always failed. People with long experience in the markets knows very well. Each period creates its own special conditions. But the result has never changed. At some point the market ends its decline and a new cycle. With new highs, that bad news is quickly forgotten. The loser loses and the market moves on. The market is never innocent. There is no emotion. There are always winners and losers. And so it will be in the future. So I've told you so many negative things. Is it so hard? win, does everybody have to lose? No, I'm not telling you this to cause despair. it's not for you to get caught up in what you're in. you need to know and understand the rules of the game is necessary. Know why you do what you do and be aware of the consequences Be. This may sound like a cliché but these are the facts. You may be very attracted to words like 50x-100x, but nobody is a magician. No one has a secret 100x knowledge of the world. These are just thrown up to attract attention for interaction. things. There will be coins that will do 100x, of course, but You don't hear about them by chance. Finding a coin with 100x potential is only possible with very good fundamentals. possible with analysis And it takes a lot of patience requires Many beautiful projects in the past such x's has done it. And it's getting harder and harder. In both the stock market and the crypto market, there are always tips there are. And most of them are born and spread on speculation. Sustainable profits thanks to tips you can't. Listen but don't plan on a tip (like don't believe in fortune telling, but don't stay without it) "Stock investing is not a game where every shot is a goal . You don't need to kick every ball. You can be patient and bide your time." -Warren Buffet Do not deify anyone in this market. You should get the information you need and move on. The story starts like this: So many people are following this person, if I'm in the market, I should listen to them. I almost don't know anyone in the stock market who doesn't follow someone on social media. Everyone is always on their way. ''The general public has no idea what is going on , or even that it has no idea." Noam Chomsky We can definitely use this saying for the stock market . Prices and indicators are not the same for everyone. This means that what I mean is that you can look at the same graph at the same time we think different things. This is because people the positive and negative experiences they've had. Some people saw the bitcoin chart below 20k and thought partly as an opportunity and partly as a great destruction. is seeing. The same for btc below the 200-week average the remaining price is a great opportunity for some and a great opportunity for others. as a sign of fear. If the person is not capable of understanding it, they can't understand you cannot convince if you present evidence. Price movement should not be looked at as a belief, it is It's math. Sooner or later, whatever the goal is, it will come true. Prices are based on the fact that people don't act on their feelings. for those who are disbelief at the beginning of the bull, and disbelief when the trend ends. overconfident people lose. Your emotions will only mislead you in this market. robot you have to be. When buying a coin, remember: good technique and fundamentals you have to analyze. not only the cost but also the time. Why did you buy that coin? I don't know, he told me, he said buy it, so I bought it, it fell. I couldn't sell it. That's no way to make a profit. At least I know from your point of view=) Luck rarely smiles on you in this market. Everything else is knowledge, experience + patience. How do we determine whether the market will rise or fall, at what point in the trend? I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and evaluate the issue in terms of market psychology. One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market the person who is entering or less experienced only to the extent of the period in which he or she entered. This is it is a mistake, what needs to be done is to analyze the entire market is to examine its history. You've heard the saying, "It has increased 30 times in 2 years. "If it goes another 10 floors from here... Probably it's not going to go away. This is the idea of going 10 times more, has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and is not rational. "If we had bought that coin or stock at the time, we would be rich now. This phrase is also very familiar. Uninformed investing based on other people's rhetoric who think they're being given away for free on the stock exchange, on crypto. people, people who think it's a place to make a quick quick buck. time comes at the last link in the chain doomed. What has brought these people to the stock market recently is the euphoria in the markets. People are psychologically affected by their environment. This is called Explanation: no one when the stock market was at 1000 points I went from not being interested to wanting everyone to be an investor. has taken. The same goes for bitcoin I can't convince you to buy in the $3000-$5000 range. people are starting to ask if there's another 50-69,000 to go. started. The same people now thought that you should never buy bitcoin at 16k. And they do now :) All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviors. The result of this behavior is to lose. As long as people and markets exist the cycles will always continue. There will always be new There will be winners and losers. The stock market has that's what it's meant to be. Now, what are we going to do with all the above? With all this information, we are in a market where we are in relation to the summit and when now we're trying to figure out how to get out. So what When we say when to buy and when to sell, here is the selling to find the time. When does the bear market (bear period) start? It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. Best sell is the place. In other words, it is the peak. Identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points) technical analysis to be able to analyze the internal dynamics of the market and we use this market psychology. You've heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money from impatient people to patient people". You will realize the truth of this saying as your experience increases. Of course, this alone is not enough, you need the right timing, choosing the right stock coin, uptrend like the moves you're going to make in the trend there are. But you need to have the basic One of the disciplines is patience. Let's go back to psychology and emotion. In the stock market masses are guided and manipulated through emotions is done. So, you can't take an action that you won't take is to get your consent and get you to take that action. To persuade you to take an action to your detriment manipulation The manipulation of the holdings of small investors through various methods. money, big investors, capital groups, in the hands of the newly rich. So wealth transfer it happens. A lot of exchanges, commodities, crypto, Thanks to parity, these wealth transfers can take place at any time. it happens. Once you lose, it is difficult to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into play. You can be a prisoner of greed and anger. Therefore, you can know these and try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage. The stock market is an environment where accurate information is very valuable, because on the Internet, we have the most information pollution, ignorance. comments, directive content, again, the stock market on the subject. Already twitter alone for this empty content. Let me give you some advice. choose the people you care about carefully. Nobody has a magic wand or a secret secret that will make you do 100x no information. Stay away from dishonest people. ignore copycat scam accounts. There is plenty of paid and unpaid education on the internet (stock market, crypto) make time for them. Written about the stock market look through the books. You are ready to fill yourself with knowledge. Study In fundamental and technical analysis, investor on psychology, behavioral economics (economics) information on the fundamentals of the stock exchange Try to get a job. Don't be dependent on anyone. try to get information from everyone. Also get to know a little bit about what you are investing in. Don't just jump in on a whim, on the spur of the moment. don't skip. Pay attention to past experience. In the stock market too much experience is important. Think medium and long term, not short term. NEWS In other words "ADVERTISING" Sometimes the news is used to change the direction of movement used when the time is right. People for sharp turns, sudden price increases you need to give big news to talk about. No reason sudden drops and exits call the system into question, it undermines trust for no reason. But if people believe in a cause, the game goes on it does. So if people can make sense of the stake, the market from a constructive point of view. People want to hear something is ready. Why did it fall: it happened like this and that, that's why fallen. Most of the time it's not even relevant . Never in the mainstream media from the truth, what goes on behind the scenes, technical analysis, our that might be useful to us. In the low points, bad news can make you even more discouraged. and at the summits, the good news is that there are more new to attract investors and lock up goods over the hill is pumped. This is how the market is managed by media power. Paris hilton's laser eye and how it becomes a movement and so on. Elon musk-tesla Elon-doge Celebrities suddenly becoming bitcoiners and sharing it on the internet Look at BTC trend analysis on Google, how similar the graphs are! >(google trends :BTC) Remember, the stock market is not just an investment. It's a kind of to make money. The crypto market is just that is literally the stock market. In fact, I think it's the most difficult is a stock exchange. Those who want to take your money out of your hands there are no prohibitive rules. No one will take pity on you. Who can't win in crypto or settle for less to get out of the snow? -Those who hurry too much in the snow those who entered the top of the -pump-dump organizations -It's not going to go away, you keep changing coins scammers -Those who tie all their money to a coin -More altcoins than you can manage those buried -Continuously chasing signals left and right, paid private tips from fake masters he doesn't know in groups those who wait. -While all his money is in scams consumptive. -They are also risk averse, very stressed and fearful investment, those who drown in detail cannot win in the bull (or earn little). -Do not take adequate safety precautions being hacked. -Lack of knowledge about the market, not learning. -Despondent and negative because of constant losing to be (unable to look objectively) -Seeking back doors and trying to pull the profit forward ( emotional trade or unknowingly margin) Always looking to others without adequate research. listening, losing and blaming them for mistakes, -To excessive exuberance at the top, excessive fear at the bottom. getting caught up in anger. -Following the whole market only for news. These can multiply even more. These behavior patterns people who are in cycles cannot make money in the market. Cycles and Similarities Understanding Cycles in Crypto Are there really cycles in the markets? Are cycles only in the stock market or in all of life? in the field? What is the use of understanding cycles? And how is it always increasing? Or is it not always increasing? If it is always increasing, why is the majority losing? Is there similarity, and if so, does it always have to be similar? How do we recognize meaningful textures? How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities? How do we differentiate? Are altoins long-term or episodic? But could this time be different? If time passes and human behavior is similar, the consequences of human behavior are also interconnected should look like. Well, in the charts we are actually looking at something other than price. what we see. "The consequences of human behavior. And within cycles, there are always new winners and there will be losers. That is the whole point of the stock market. The last losers for newcomers to enter the market (new cycle) '' But this time it's different. "A lot of people every semester. by a man. And it has always failed. But when it's said by the masses, you have to stop and think about it. People with long experience in the marketsb knows very well. Each period creates its own special conditions. Yes. sometimes different things happen. But the result is never unchanged. At some point the market ends its decline and begins a new cycle. With new ascents, he bad news is quickly forgotten. The loser loses and the market continues on its path Two years is a short time in financial markets. Especially very, very short time in non-crypto markets. Cycles are faster in crypto than in general markets is taking place. In classical stock markets, commodities, exchange rates cycles spanning almost a human lifetime, now today, the pace of life, the impact of technology and shorter periods of time with the increase in the number of investors down. Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market is 24/7 and 365 days of trading. Within a year more transactions in crypto than in other markets we see a lot of movement. The crypto market is the most suitable for the speed of the new world (technologyfashion-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed etc.) and the age is the market that reflects its speed. Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast people relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast MARKET The increase in speed in every aspect of life is of course it would also affect the markets. There are good and bad sides to this; very fast losses and very gains in a short time. Reasons for rapid losses and gains: a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law), b-) The fact that the technology is very new, that the technological part is understood only by a certain segment of the world in general, again speaking for the world in general; a very minority group is capable of distinguishing right from wrong only with their own analysis c-) The fact that transactions can be made very easily by anyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age, with just one phone call What do I mean by the above? a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules; There is no regulation that protects the investor in this market . In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now . As you know, when there are no rules and there is big and easy money involved, malicious people end up here immediately. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, to create and sell tokens , to market them, to advertise them is not subject to any rules. The limited number of shares on exchanges and too many rules for IPOs (according to crypto=) ) So there are coins coming out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries, Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating assets from scratch with no strings attached and it is very easy to sell during bull periods, There is no penalty for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media. Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors . The ability to make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost by experienced malicious people . (We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping - advertising, shilling, etc.). b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning ( creating volume ) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions), On the contrary, stock market advertisements that push inadequate or new investors to make more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, and those who believe in the "more transactions, more money perception" to make more transactions (stock market = commission income) Are altoins long-term or cyclical? To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run when the trend ends) The more quality and proven the AltCoin is and the more it solves a problem, the more long-term it is. Altcoin/btc to understand what I mean You can look at the pairs. Very few Altcoins have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods. Does the crypto market always have to grow in the long run? "Yes" against paper currencies unless there are very harsh regulations or bans whether it is usd, eur, gbp or jpy. The content of cycles: Briefly: 3 periods Fall from peak > accumulation > rally Bottom level base formation, saw (acc zone) zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally. Afterwards; repetition of the cycle according to the conditions of the coming days . Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle has its own are different from each other. In other words, the downturn-accumulation-upturn periods may be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend. This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short We will examine the details on the charts. When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ). -This process can be long or short depending on the period. (see chainlink) Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction) (2020 march covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom. (Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious. Continue reading -media- news- disappointment- disbelief. After the darkest moment of the night, the sun begins to rise After accumulation, it is difficult to predict when the movement will turn upwards, but we can identify this zone with psychological and technical indicators. -So we understand the cycle, where are we in the cycle? Which pairs to understand? >Btc/usd >ETH/usd total, ETH/BTC >XRP/BTC, LTC/BTC, BNB/BTC >total2, total3 and others >major altcoins >dxy >vix index >sp500, nasdaq, nikkei225, >Altcoin Index Understanding the cycle through Doge? Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market. We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years . 1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated. This up and down process lasted until February 2017 This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase , as we will later call it, begins. In the area where this uptrend started, it gets support from the 75-week moving average (75w sma) and the move begins. Level 1: Peak zone Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place) Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl 2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages. The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910. Here, too, the region gets support from the 75-week moving average (75w sma-red line) and aggressive movement begins.We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases. 3rd Trend > May 2021 with the whole market The trend in Doge is also shifting to the downside. The lowest level we have seen so far in this trend is $0.05. It has been 883 days since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 75-week average, which is currently at $0.075. What's important on this cycle chart of Dogecoin; 3-level structure Time from peak > trend breakout Position relative to 75-week moving average 2-stage aggressive upward movements starting after trend breakout. Explaining through Doge is easy for both the teller and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly. I have prepared multiple doge charts, you can examine them. DOGE/BTC Are there similarities? If so, do they always have to be similar? Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully Similarity in coins does not always have to be in every product. Different movements may have occurred in very different scenarios. The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw useful conclusions. Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance. It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional. Rsi, moving averages, etc. indicators should also be available. Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape. It should also be remembered that Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts. Siacoin, digibyte, verge, xlm.... SIA/USD Digibyte/USD XVG(Verge)/USD XLM/USD Understanding the similarities between monero and iota. IOTA/USD MONERO(XMR)/USD How similar they are in themselves, right? I mean, how they've fed us a similar move for the 2nd time, and in some cases even the 3rd time :D Why are altcoins in the BUY ZONE and how do we identify it? In this section, I will evaluate the subject according to my own experience and thoughts and talk about how the market is doing. I will do the review in 2 parts. 1- Psychological 2- Technical. From the very beginning, I will say my opinion without beating around the bush : We are at the bottom levels on behalf of major altcoins and in my opinion, we are at the stages to be purchased. Is it the bottom? -I don't know. Can it go lower? -Maybe, I don't know that either. And I'm not trying to look for the exact bottom. The buy point is not a single place. Focus on buying zones instead of buying points. I'm talking about the average cost between certain bands, the average cost in bad periods. Let's expand a bit more; in my previous articles, I have talked a lot about the bottom zones, what they are, how they feel. I repeat; we are not looking for a bottom. Yes, we have more or less identified the bottom areas, what is the next step? Patience and good psychology management. Analyzing the history of the altcoin or the index itself , making comparisons. Using technical data correctly . And while doing this, being objective and not letting our emotions get in the way. It is our "emotions" that will hurt us the most in these bad zones and will knock us out of the game . This is the area to focus on projects. Projects that will exist in the future with fundamental analysis should be selected in these regions. The same goes for new projects . Time for discovery! - As we say: "Look at the coin, it has made 200X from this time to this time."; You should know that in order to make 200x, you need to buy from these feared regions. Don't expect positive news in these areas. News at the lows is bad ( to break hope), news at the highs is good (to keep the euphoria going). The informed investor comes to the market in bad areas, the unconscious and new investor comes to the market at the top. 2017-2018 crypto, 2022 crypto are the best examples. There is an expression: "Ignore the noise!" This is how I do it. Ignore the noise The lows and highs are noisy times with lots of information pollution, where everyone is talking, false information is spread, and everyone repeats each other. I have observed that there are unleveled discussions and that people (influencers) on social media are discussing prices. etc) fighting with each other. If you have survived up to this point, it is shorter from here. Don't underestimate the cycles and study them carefully (math). > What if this time it happens differently? What if the circumstances are different and the decline lasts longer? What if this time it doesn't go up at all? These questions don't come to your mind during the bull process. Because this is how the market works, you are not independent of it . When it's going up, you always think it will go higher and higher, and you don't think about the fall. You are happy, you think you will gain more. The fall is the opposite. Your psychology, which has been worn out for a long time in that downward spiral, prevents you from seeing the reality . These sentences describing the psychology of the business are not something that few people know in secret. On the contrary, it is information that has been publicly available for many years since the stock markets have existed . The difficult part is the application and self-management. For example; An Altcoin (non-scam, continuing as a project) that falls from $ 100 and reaches $ 5 levels can be cheap provided that it is supported by technical data. Yes, there may be a possibility that this Altcoin may fall to 3$. But still, $5 is a good buying level. Let's repeat, it fell from 100 >> you bought it at $5 >>> then it bottomed at $3 >> and reached $50 in the new cycle. A successful purchase. You don't realize it in those days, you wait patiently and reap the rewards when you reach your target. When the coin is at $3, there will always be those who will target lower levels, who will say not to buy in this area . This has always been the case in the past. In December 2018 , when Bitcoin dropped to $3200, there was a very famous $1800 level that everyone was waiting for. Likewise, when Bitcoin hit $3900 during the covid period in March 2020 , lower levels were expected. But it didn't happen, and I saw those who waited jumped on the train at higher prices later, while others were completely out of the loop and missed out on great opportunities. No one can collect a product, a coin at a single price , it is not possible for anyone. When we look technically; yes, there are still lower levels, this is true. But none of us know where the bottom and the most favorable point is. We only make predictions with the data we have. I would like to add, don't look for certainty. Be ready for unpredictable outcomes. Leaving wiggle room makes you more successful and resilient. You are here to make money and you have to be resilient . It' s not easy, it's hard, but it's possible. Let's move on to the technical part. Time to put our psychological observations into math! The data I use the most. Cyclical analysis, average decline times during bear season, total, total2, total3, others indc., ETH/BTC, Altcoin charts with monthly, 1 and 2-week candles, on-chain data, indicators (many) etc... These are the indicators I use. The most important ones are RSI, LMACD, Moving averages. The others are a bit more detailed and capture something different . Let's start with Total2 Marketcap. It peaked (top) in November 2021 It has been 707 days since the TOP I have shown 707 days on the chart. I am looking at where these 707 days coincide with the peak in the previous cycle Yes, more or less at the end of the downtrend. I don't expect it to be exactly the same, I'm looking for similarities and that's enough. Remember it doesn't have to be exactly the same Also, there is a "Gaussian Channel" on the chart Others Marketcap (Altcoins) Bitcoin /// “Does history repeat itself or not?” Now we may be thinking about this. We may have seen In the cycle, "there was another bottom, that is, a little bit lower , and then it started to bull". So does it have to be like that now? I don't know that . So what can I do? I'm mostly in altcoins and have a small amount of cash. If that drop comes, I'll buy with the last of my cash . If it doesn't and it goes up from here, what I already have will take me to the top. People think. Is there anything lower? Then I'll sell all I have and buy it all again when it falls . FOR ME: No way . It is a gamble and a move I would not make. The decision is up to you. Everyone's trading strategy, perception of risk and supply of moves are different. It doesn't suit me. What I know is that the uptrend will start again and these days will be behind us. What I don't know is when this accumulation process will end. It is one thing if you are a professional in trading , I am talking more about a non-pro style. If you follow the charts and articles I share, you know more or less how I think. Total3 Marketcap. Actually, it's not that different. Let's analyze it anyway. Others Marketcap (The entire market excluding the top 10 coins). As you can see here, we are close to a breakout. This could happen all at once in the coming weeks. It could be rejected and push this process forward by 1-2 months. But Nothing changes for me after the breakthrough. Those who wait 2 years have to wait 2 months more. When I examine it ONLY TECHNICALLY POLKADOT VS ETH ALGORAND CHZ CARDANO MANA(DECENTRALAND) LTC(LITECOIN) MATIC (POLYGON) I've looked at a lot of technical data on these coins and found them to be favorable, but it's enough to simply see them with the RSI level. Remember, favorable does not mean that there is no possibility of a lower level. I'm not saying to go out and buy these coins without question. There are old altcoins that show cyclicality very well, be sure to examine them in detail. I prefer a colorful visual style for easy understanding. You can simply understand where we are in the cycle digibyte DGB/USD a very good example of similarity siacoin SC/USD Another good example for understanding cycles XRP/USD XRP/BTC XRP/BTC. We're in the last zone of the big structure. In fact, this formation is a "bigger version" of the previous one in 2013-2017 . Don't focus on the tiny possibility of a fall at the bottom . Focus on the big area above Ethereum ETH/USD and ETH/BTC are the leading pair of Altcoins. ETH/USD Another version ETH/USD ETH/BTC It is important to examine the most important parity Major Altcoins in the BTC parity ETH/BTC, where we will follow the altcoin rises. When we examine it in the long term, a large triangle has formed. This triangle will break upwards from the last region, but tomorrow but weeks later. In ETH/BTC, I am not focused on the small area at the end, but on the gains that will be experienced after the breakout (2024-2025 Bull Season). LTC/BTC MATIC/BTC I'm slowly finishing the cycles part. It's not something where you get a return on your investment tomorrow . It requires patience and sound psychology. You cannot make money in one day like day trading. You even have to be willing to spend a long time without earning. Don't wear yourself out with thoughts like ; why is it constantly falling like this, I have no patience anymore , this will not work . If you want to make a profit, you have to deal with the market . No one told you it would be easy . Maybe you are tired of the same words, but there is not much time left, every decline from now on is a buying opportunity in Bitcoin and major altcoins. There is probably a lot more to write, but the summary is in the first paragraphs. I will not prolong it. Thank you for reading..
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Cryptollica
4
TOP 20 Key Patterns [cheat sheet]Hi guys, This is @CRYPTOMOJO_TA One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Here are some Educational Chart Patterns that you should know in 2022. I hope you will find this information educational & informative. >Head and Shoulders Pattern A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is the highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. >Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern An inverse head and shoulders are similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted: with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends An inverse head and shoulders pattern, upon completion, signals a bull market Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. >Double Top (M) Pattern A double top is an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs. It is confirmed once the asset's price falls below a support level equal to the low between the two prior highs. >Double Bottom (W) Pattern The double bottom looks like the letter "W". The twice-touched low is considered a support level. The advance of the first bottom should be a drop of 10% to 20%, then the second bottom should form within 3% to 4% of the previous low, and volume on the ensuing advance should increase. The double bottom pattern always follows a major or minor downtrend in particular security and signals the reversal and the beginning of a potential uptrend. >Tripple Top Pattern A triple top is formed by three peaks moving into the same area, with pullbacks in between. A triple top is considered complete, indicating a further price slide, once the price moves below pattern support. A trader exits longs or enters shorts when the triple top completes. If trading the pattern, a stop loss can be placed above the resistance (peaks). The estimated downside target for the pattern is the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point. >Triple Bottom Pattern A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears). A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance. The formation of the triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position. >Falling Wedge Pattern When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, the price may breakout above the upper trend line. When the price breaks the upper trend line the security is expected to reverse and trend higher. Traders identifying bullish reversal signals would want to look for trades that benefit from the security’s rise in price. >Rising Wedge Pattern This usually occurs when a security’s price has been rising over time, but it can also occur in the midst of a downward trend as well. The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal. While price can be out of either trend line, wedge patterns have a tendency to break in the opposite direction from the trend lines. Therefore, rising wedge patterns indicate the more likely potential of falling prices after a breakout of the lower trend line. Traders can make bearish trades after the breakout by selling the security short or using derivatives such as futures or options, depending on the security being charted. These trades would seek to profit from the potential that prices will fall. >Flag Pattern A flag pattern, in technical analysis, is a price chart characterized by a sharp countertrend (the flag) succeeding a short-lived trend (the flag pole). Flag patterns are accompanied by representative volume indicators as well as price action. Flag patterns signify trend reversals or breakouts after a period of consolidation. >Pennant Pattern Pennants are continuation patterns where a period of consolidation is followed by a breakout used in technical analysis. It's important to look at the volume in a pennant—the period of consolidation should have a lower volume and the breakouts should occur on a higher volume. Most traders use pennants in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis that act as confirmation. >Cup and Handle Pattern A cup and handle price pattern on a security's price chart is a technical indicator that resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. The cup and handle are considered a bullish signal, with the right-hand side of the pattern typically experiencing lower trading volume. The pattern's formation may be as short as seven weeks or as long as 65 weeks. >What is a Bullish Flag Pattern When the prices are in an uptrend a bullish flag pattern shows a slow consolidation lower after an aggressive uptrend. This indicates that there is more buying pressure moving the prices up than down and indicates that the momentum will continue in an uptrend. Traders wait for the price to break above the resistance of the consolidation after this pattern is formed to enter the market. >What is the Bearish Flag Pattern When the prices are in the downtrend a bearish flag pattern shows a slow consolidation higher after an aggressive downtrend. This indicates that there is more selling pressure moving the prices down rather than up and indicates that the momentum will continue in a downtrend. Traders wait for the price to break below the support of the consolidation after this pattern is formed to enter in the short position. > Channel A channel chart pattern is characterized as the addition of two parallel lines which act as the zones of support and resistance. The upper trend line or the resistance connects a series of highs. The lower trend line or the support connects a series of lows. Below is the formation of the channel chart pattern: >Megaphone pattern The megaphone pattern is a chart pattern. It’s a rough illustration of a price pattern that occurs with regularity in the stock market. Like any chart pattern, there are certain market conditions that tend to follow the formation of the megaphone pattern. The megaphone pattern is characterized by a series of higher highs and lower lows, which is a marked expansion in volatility: >What is a ‘diamond’ pattern? A bearish diamond formation or diamond top is a technical analysis pattern that can be used to detect a reversal following an uptrend; the however bullish diamond pattern or diamond bottom is used to detect a reversal following a downtrend. This pattern occurs when a strong up-trending price shows a flattening sideways movement over a prolonged period of time that forms a diamond shape. Detecting reversals is one of the most profitable trading opportunities for technical traders. A successful trader combines these techniques with other technical indicators and other forms of technical analysis to maximize their odds of success. Technicians using charts search for archetypal price chart patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top /bottom reversal patterns, study technical indicators, and moving averages and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns. Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down the volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation. Technicians also look for relationships between price/ volume indices and market indicators. Examples include the moving average, relative strength index and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility ) and put/call ratios with a price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc. There are many techniques in technical analysis. Adherents of different techniques (for example Candlestick analysis, the oldest form of technical analysis developed by a Japanese grain trader; Harmonics; Dow theory; and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one technique. Some technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern(s) a particular instrument reflects at a given time and what the interpretation of that pattern should be. Others employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and interpretation. Contrasting with technical analysis is fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors. Uncovering the trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, although neither technical nor fundamental indicators are perfect. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make trading decisions. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
89
A Brief History of the Bitcoin Halving Here. Hello, welcome to this BTC HALVING update. Bitcoin (BTC) halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network. During a halving event, the reward that miners receive for validating and adding new blocks to the blockchain is reduced by half. This event is programmed into the Bitcoin protocol and serves several purposes: Supply Control: Bitcoin halving is a mechanism to control the inflation of the cryptocurrency. By reducing the reward that miners receive, the rate at which new bitcoins are created slows down. This scarcity can potentially drive up the price of Bitcoin if demand remains or increases. Scheduled Issuance: It ensures a predictable issuance schedule for Bitcoin. Every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This predictable schedule helps users and investors plan for the future supply of Bitcoin. Security: The halving also plays a role in the security of the Bitcoin network. As the block reward decreases, miners are incentivized to continue securing the network through transaction validation and block creation by transaction fees. This transition from block rewards to transaction fees is expected to be a key driver of miner incentives as Bitcoin's supply approaches its maximum limit of 21 million coins. Here's a brief history of Bitcoin halvings: First Halving: November 28, 2012 - The block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Second Halving: July 9, 2016 - The block reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Third Halving: May 11, 2020 - The block reward was reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. The next halving is expected to occur approximately every four years, reducing the block reward by half each time until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached, which is estimated to happen in the year 2140. These halving events are closely watched by the cryptocurrency community and can have an impact on Bitcoin's price and overall ecosystem. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoSanders9563
2
Box sections, support and resistance, breakout tradinghello? Hello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- When trading, I always think about when the price will rise. And, by buying just before it goes up, you want to be in the profit zone as soon as you buy. To make these trades, you must be familiar with day trading. However, most people do not like to engage in day trading. This is where problems always arise. If you buy at a price that is too low and there is no sign of it going up, you will get tired and lose interest in trading. If this situation continues, you will eventually leave all investment markets and will not even be able to get opportunities. Therefore, even if you incur losses, you must continue to engage in day trading whenever you have time to maintain your sense of day trading. Additionally, you need to develop the know-how necessary for day trading. Some people may be thinking that there is no need for day trading since they will be investing with the goal of short-term trading. However, if you do not have an eye for day trading, 1. The average unit price is formed at a higher price than expected due to poor timing of purchase. 2. Buy at a price that is too low and miss out on higher opportunities. Cases like 1 and 2 may occur. Then, I started trading because the market seemed to be on the upswing, but I think it only amplified my negative thoughts about trading as I entered a pullback period. Therefore, depending on the market atmosphere, there are separate periods for day trading, short-term trading, and mid- to long-term trading. The current period is a period of day trading and short-term trading. In order to transition from this period to a mid- to long-term trading period, one must go through a period of great volatility. Therefore, as mentioned earlier, if you start trading when the current market atmosphere is more heightened, you may suffer large losses when a period of great volatility begins. Fortunately, if large volatility leads to an uptick, there is potential for profit from short-term trading. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that it will eventually turn into a loss because there is a possibility that the price will not respond due to expectations that it will rise further in the future. In any case, as the current day trading period is likely to continue for a while, it is highly likely that more individual investors will begin trading in the future. Since this is the time when companies or whales that operate large capital realize profits, once profit realization ends, it is likely to lead to great volatility, that is, a large decline. At the same time, companies and whales that were unable to buy during the period of great volatility will buy, and eventually a full-fledged upward trend will begin. Therefore, we need to be careful when trading to survive this trend. Because you never know when and how the market will change, you should always make profits or prevent increased losses through short trading, or day trading. So, the current period corresponds to the period of day trading. (USDT 1D chart) Currently, the flow of USDT is not very good. This is because large candles on the USDT chart mean that there is a large flow of funds, which means that many transactions are taking place or there is a lot of movement of funds. When these candles change to the previous candles, it is expected that the coin market will end the day trading period and enter a period of great volatility. -------------------------------------------------- --------------- As I mentioned earlier, in order to buy right before it rises and be in the profit zone as soon as you buy, you must eventually make a breakout trade. In order to make a breakout trade, you need to know how support and resistance points and sections are formed at the current price position. Then, if support is confirmed in the formed sideways section, you should start buying from then on until it breaks upward through the high point of the sideways section or box section. Otherwise, if you buy after seeing support after an upward breakout, it may be too late for day trading. A big rise often begins after a decline. This movement is commonly called a pull back. Even though the price has fallen, the number of people selling decreases, which means that there are not many people willing to sell anymore, so when the price rises, the number of people selling decreases, so this type of movement is often seen. There are prerequisites for this. Before the above movement can be seen, there must be a certain number of candles with long upper tails. This is because a candle with a long upper tail can be formed to confirm the movement of people trying to sell. Well, I won't go into more detail because I've heard this story often elsewhere. (BTCUSD 1D chart) As mentioned earlier, in order to make a breakout trade, there must be a certain section or point of support and resistance. Looking at the 1D chart in the example, can you see a certain range or support and resistance lows? If so, you need to check whether you receive support or resistance at that section or at the support and resistance lows. thus, You can think of a box section like the chart above. These box sections or sideways sections are different for each person, so it is impossible to say which is right or wrong. All you have to do is create a trading strategy that suits you within the set range and trade accordingly to earn profits. The box section I decided on is as follows. HA-Low and HA-High indicators are indicators created for trading. Therefore, it is utilized when starting or ending a transaction. Use this to form a box section, start buying when support appears in this box section, and continue buying until the box section breaks upward. Therefore, as shown above, candles that pass the HA-Low and HA-High indicators form a box consisting of low and high points. If you look at the chart in the current example, you can see that the base of the box is toward the bottom of the box. Therefore, in order to turn upward, it is expected that the movement will begin as the HA-Low or HA-High indicator moves and forms a new one by shaking it up and down. The key to breakout trading is at what point must the breakout trade begin. However, these points vary depending on your investment style, that is, your trading strategy. Therefore, in order to apply your own trading strategy to a box section created by someone else, you must know the criteria for selecting the box section. However, most of the time, such information is not provided. However, this can only be inferred from the pictures drawn on the chart. You need to be careful because making the inferences your own and creating a trading strategy based on them is like building a castle on sand. Therefore, in order to make a breakout trade, you must check the following: 1. Is there a certain range or support and resistance range visible at the point where the current price is located? 2. If case 1 applies, how far are the other support and resistance areas from that box range? If there are support and resistance points or sections within the box section or just above the box section, you must check them because even if you break above the box section, you may not make much profit or may even incur a loss. The section in the chart box above is 25120.76-28184.89. And above that, there is support and resistance at 28809.72. Therefore, if you are satisfied with the profit in the 28184.89-28809.72 range, you can proceed with the transaction. If not, it is recommended to hold the transaction. Ultimately, trading is done to make a profit, so if the visible profit range is small, it is better not to proceed with the trade at all. 3. Is it possible to take a stop loss when there is no support at the support and resistance points within the box section and the price falls below the bottom of the box section? You should think that falling below the box range means you have provisionally defined that a further decline, that is, a sharp decline, may occur. Therefore, you should be able to take a stop loss when the price falls below the bottom of the box section. If you think the stop loss amount is too large and you cannot stop the loss, it is better not to trade at all. Check conditions 1-3 above, and if everything is satisfactory, you can check whether you are supported at the support and resistance points, create a buying strategy, and proceed with the purchase. Otherwise, if you buy immediately when the box section breaks upward, the psychological burden will increase and it may turn into a wrong transaction, so you need to build up know-how through a lot of experience. The most important thing in my chart is the MS-Signal indicator. If the price stays above this indicator and the MS-Signal indicator turns into a bullish sign, it means that there is a high possibility of an uptrend and an upward move. Therefore, in order to trade more safely, you can start buying when the MS-Signal indicator rises above the MS-Signal indicator and the MS-Signal indicator switches to an upward sign and shows support. However, it is not easy to actually proceed like this. You need to think about how you will proceed with the purchase. I will take the time to explain this when I have the chance next time. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by readCrypto
Investing in CryptoThere are approximately 22,932 cryptocurrencies in existence. The image above shows the hundreds of cryptocurrencies on TradingView's crypto coins heat map. Click here to interact with the heat map With so many cryptocurrencies, how does one determine which, if any, are worth investing in? In this post, I'll explain how I sorted through thousands of cryptocurrencies to identify a small handful that met my investing criteria. This is post is meant to be educational, but is not meant to be financial advice. I began by using TradingView's crypto screener , shown below. I filtered out cryptocurrencies with a market cap of less than $100 million. In my opinion, cryptocurrencies with a market cap smaller than $100 million are too volatile and illiquid to safely invest or trade. Assets with a such small market cap can also be prone to price manipulation. The low volume and illiquid conditions also tend to result in poor-quality charting data. I analyzed the charts of over 200 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of over $100 million. To account for the possibility that a cryptocurrency under the $100 million market cap was growing fast enough to eventually become a candidate, I re-screened all the cryptocurrencies by market cap at a second point in time (6 months later). I also performed both screenings during the current crypto bear market when fewer new cryptocurrencies were coming into existence. I observed that most cryptocurrencies decayed in value relative to the U.S. dollar. When an asset decays in value relative to the U.S. dollar this generally means that the market believes the asset is becoming worthless. Since the majority of the most highly capitalized cryptocurrencies were decaying in price over time, I assumed that lesser capitalized cryptocurrencies were also decaying in price relative to the U.S. dollar. Therefore, I concluded that most cryptocurrencies are becoming worthless over time. To objectively determine whether or not an asset is decaying relative to the U.S. dollar one can apply a regression channel to the entire price history of the asset. If the channel is downsloping, then the asset is decaying in value as time passes. The chart above shows an example of a cryptocurrency that has decayed in value relative to the U.S. dollar. Most cryptocurrencies decay in value relative to the U.S. dollar. (Note: Although the denominator is Tether the chart has been adjusted to USD.) Although most cryptocurrencies decay in value over time, dozens of cryptocurrencies move up in value relative to the U.S. dollar over time (and have an upsloping regression channel). For these high-performing cryptocurrencies, I then used relative strength analysis to determine the best investing candidates. For each cryptocurrency that had a market cap of over $100 million and that had an upsloping regression channel relative to the U.S. dollar over its entire existence, I analyzed the cryptocurrency relative to Bitcoin to see if it outperformed. If the cryptocurrency decayed over time relative to Bitcoin (downsloping regression channel), I removed it from my list because I concluded that it would be better to just invest in Bitcoin. Although I excluded crypto that underperformed Bitcoin, I could not reach the conclusion that crypto that outperformed Bitcoin was worth investing in until I first validated the conclusion that Bitcoin itself was worth investing in. While a quick glance at the price history of Bitcoin, as shown below, may convince many people that Bitcoin is worth investing in, I needed an objective, evidence-based, and mathematical method to determine whether Bitcoin is a wealth-building asset or merely a speculative bubble. Fortunately, chart analysis can help us infer if an asset is a speculative bubble or actually wealth-building over the long term. In a prior post, I explained that from a conceptual standpoint, a wealth-building asset is one that expands the investor's purchasing power over time. In order to do this, a wealth-building asset generally must move up in price over time faster than the rate at which the money supply expands. In general, only assets that are perpetually scarce or that are increasingly productive can overcome this difficult hurdle to be classified as a wealth-building asset. To learn more about why an asset must outperform the growth rate of the money supply in order to be wealth-building, you can check out my post below. Therefore, in order to test whether or not Bitcoin is a wealth-building asset over the long term (years and decades), I compared Bitcoin against the money supply. What I found was surprising. The above chart compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the U.S. money supply (M1). I found that the market cap of Bitcoin was forming an apparent bull flag to the U.S. money supply (M1) on the yearly chart. Not only is a bull flag apparently forming, but the bull flag structure is apparently a perfect golden ratio. To learn more about golden ratio bull flag structures and why they can be quite significant, you can check out my post below about advanced bull flag concepts. I decided to delve deeper. This time I measured Bitcoin against the money supply on a lower timeframe and using a longer lookback period. I found that the total market cap of Bitcoin as a ratio to the money supply was moving in an apparent logistic growth curve . Although it is generally well-known that Bitcoin moves in a logistic growth curve to the U.S. dollar, it is not generally well-known that Bitcoin's market cap is also moving in the same logistic growth pattern relative to the money supply. The chart above shows the total market cap of Bitcoin moving in an apparent logistic growth curve relative to the money supply. The pink line at the top is the value 1, and it represents a horizontal asymptote (the highest possible value that can be reached). Bitcoin's market cap can only go as high as the total supply of money. As Bitcoin's market cap approaches the total supply of money, further growth becomes increasingly inhibited because there is a decreasing amount of money left that can be converted into Bitcoin so as to push its price up further. It is thus not possible for the total market cap of Bitcoin to exceed the total supply of money. In other words, when measured in U.S. dollars, the total value of 21 million Bitcoin can only ever be as high as the total global supply of U.S. dollars. Although the money supply tends to increase over time, the total market cap of Bitcoin as a ratio to the money supply can only ever reach 1. Since the inhibiting factor of the growth of Bitcoin's market cap is the money supply then what this means on a conceptual level is that Bitcoin's logistic growth is actually a mathematical indication that Bitcoin is replacing the money supply. In essence, by forming a logistic growth curve to the U.S. money supply, we can infer that Bitcoin is displacing, if not outright replacing, the U.S. dollar. If you would like more scientific evidence that Bitcoin conforms to a logistic growth function, you can check out this research article . It is not unusual that Bitcoin's price action appears as a logistic growth curve. Logistic growth curves characterize many types of replacement processes in nature. For example, each time a new variant of COVID-19 emerged, it replaced the previous variant through logistic growth, which can be shown in a chart of the relative prevalence of COVID-19 variants over time. The chart above shows the "S-curve" or sigmoid pattern that characterizes logistic growth. Variants of COVID-19 vying for hosts to infect is reflected as a logistic growth race among circulating and emerging variants. In many ways, this competition among virus variants is analogous to the competition of cryptocurrencies: Each cryptocurrency competes with existing and emerging cryptocurrencies to form a logistic growth curve relative to the U.S. dollar, thereby challenging its market dominance. A small subset of cryptocurrencies are so competitive that they also form a logistic growth curve relative to Bitcoin, which reflects their attempt to replace even Bitcoin's market dominance. The final step I took in analyzing cryptocurrency for investing potential was to detect which, if any, cryptocurrencies were moving in logistic growth not only to the U.S. dollar but also to Bitcoin. If one can detect an asset that will move in a logistic growth curve to Bitcoin early on, the extent of wealth that can be built is extraordinary. Below are a couple of examples of the relative strength analyses I performed. Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash The above chart shows a downsloping regression channel, indicating that Bitcoin Cash decays in value relative to Bitcoin over time. Therefore, Bitcoin is a better long-term investment than Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin vs. Ethereum In the chart above, one can see that when compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum produces an upsloping regression channel. Since the Pearson correlation coefficient is quite low and since Ethereum was unable to reach a higher high relative to Bitcoin in the current halving cycle, the relative strength of Ethereum and Bitcoin are indeterminate. In light of this, I decided that investing in both Bitcoin and Ethereum could allow me to diversify and lower the risk of investing in only one of the two. Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, in a follow-up post, I'll reveal which other 3 cryptocurrencies I currently invest in. One of them may be a surprise to many. Feel free to leave a comment below indicating which cryptocurrencies you think should be in the top 5 long-term investing candidates. In conclusion, the analysis above shows that, to a reasonably high degree of certainty, cryptocurrency (Bitcoin specifically) is challenging the current monetary system in ways that it has not been challenged before. It is my belief that cryptocurrency is the next step in the evolution of human financial markets. It builds the infrastructure for a monetary system that equips humans with more efficient transactions within digital spaces. While the Bitcoin blockchain is far from perfect and is heavily reliant on non-renewable energy consumption, it solves many of the inefficiencies that financial systems have been unable to solve for millennia. If you enjoyed this post, I would greatly appreciate it if you leave a boost! If you have any questions or would like to share your thoughts, feel free to leave them in the comments below. In a future post, I plan to explain why cryptocurrency's displacement of existing monetary systems is becoming increasingly inevitable due to the proliferation of DeFi protocols. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Never borrow money or use margin to invest in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not backed or insured by any authority and is therefore a high-risk asset class. You can lose all or some of your money in cryptocurrency. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Education
by SpyMasterTrades
256
MS-Signal, HA-Low, HA-High, and trading strategyHello? Hello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (XRPBTC chart) In order to trade, you must select support and resistance points and proceed with the appropriate trading method. To do this, we work hard to analyze charts and apply them to trading. However, because of a one-time transaction made out of greed, there are often cases where the more you proceed with the transaction, the more you end up trading in the wrong direction. The only way to correct these wrong transactions is to sell 100%. It doesn't matter what criteria you use to select support and resistance points. As long as you can select reliable support and resistance points, you will meet the essential requirements for trading through chart analysis. For the rest, you can trade according to your investment style and trading strategy. Even if everything goes perfectly as planned, it's not easy to survive market volatility. Accordingly, we have no choice but to proceed with split sales in order to respond appropriately to market volatility. In order to proceed with trading like this, you must have support and resistance points and know how to create a trading strategy appropriate for them. This is because trading in the form of buying at a point that someone told you and selling at a point that someone told you is ultimately very likely to result in a big loss because you do not have your own investment style or trading strategy. Any indicator that shows support and resistance is fine. However, you just need to check the indicator in real time at any time to ensure the reliability of the indicator. The most important indicator on my chart is the MS-Signal indicator. This is because the trend is determined by which side holds the price based on the MS-Signal indicator. However, it is not easy to select support and resistance points using the MS-Signal indicator. Because it is made up of curves. So, we added several indicators to select support and resistance points. As a result, it was possible to proceed with trading by checking whether support or resistance was received at support and resistance points with the MS-Signal indicator. However, the problem was that its importance in playing the role of support and resistance was not that great. Therefore, these support and resistance points are used as split selling points after purchasing. So, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators were created to find the starting and ending points of trading. So far, only the HA-Low and HA-High indicators have been explained. I have not provided any explanation on how to create a trading strategy using this. Today, I would like to explain how to use this to create a trading strategy. HA-Low and HA-High indicators are not intended for chart analysis. It is an indicator created purely for the purpose of trading. Therefore, when the price touches these two indicators, it means that you are ready to proceed with the transaction. Therefore, you can start or end a trade depending on whether you receive support or resistance from these two indicators. The HA-Low indicator marks a point. Therefore, if it falls below the HA-Low indicator, there is a high possibility that the previous low will be renewed. Therefore, buying at the HA-Low indicator means purchasing or selling farming, that is, making a mid- to long-term investment. You may think that mid- to long-term investing means buying at a very low price and selling when the price rises to its peak, but this is not the case. The core of mid- to long-term investment is an investment method that seeks to obtain large profits with a small investment amount by controlling the investment proportion. If you mistakenly thought that this was a transaction where you buy with all your investment money at a very low price and wait until the price rises, you must change your thinking. If you look at the chart above, you can see a section where the HA-Low indicator has been touched but continues to decline. If you observe this closely, you can see that when it falls below the MS-Signal indicator and the MS-Signal indicator shows a downward sign, or when it falls without support from the HA-High indicator and falls, it leads to a further decline. Let me tell you something else here. In other words, I would like to talk about “I don’t know whether I am supported or resisted.” Knowing whether you are receiving support or resistance is a know-how that can be acquired through day trading. Therefore, in order to know whether you are receiving support or resistance, you must acquire your own know-how through day trading. Unless I change my mindset that I don't do day trading because I'm not good at day trading, I will always be dissatisfied with the average purchase price and proceed with trading. There are separate times for day trading. That time is now. The period of day trading is included in the series of processes that occur in order for companies or people operating large funds to sell their coins (tokens) in the process of realizing profits. After this day trading period, the coin market will experience great volatility and a full-fledged upward trend will begin, so if you do not practice day trading during the current period, it will take a long time until this cycle returns. You have to wait a period of time. Therefore, during day trading, it is necessary to put aside your greed and make constant efforts to earn even a small profit with a small amount of money. Once you can tell to some extent whether you are receiving support or resistance at the support and resistance points, proceed with buying at the HA-Low and HA-High indicators. However, since buying at the HA-Low indicator is a farming transaction, that is, a purchase conducted for the purpose of mid- to long-term investment, the purchase must be made aggressively, that is, with a small proportion of the investment amount. Therefore, since the purchase was made with a small proportion of the investment, it is useful to use day trading or short-term trading to increase the number of coins corresponding to the profit by selling the amount purchased. If you continue to trade in this way, you will touch the HA-High indicator. The HA-High indicator is a surge indicator, that is, an indicator that signals a full-fledged upward trend. Therefore, being supported by the HA-High indicator means that there is a high possibility of a large increase, so you should proceed with the purchase by increasing the proportion of your investment. However, in order to surge, there is a possibility of up and down fluctuations, so efforts are needed to overcome this. If you made an aggressive purchase using the HA-Low indicator mentioned earlier and purchased for the purpose of mid- to long-term investment, you can achieve psychological stability because the average purchase price is likely to be located at a lower price than the current price even if you purchased under the HA-High indicator. There will be. In addition, you can stabilize your psychological state because you can make a profit by selling what you bought at the HA-Low indicator near the HA-High indicator. I talked about something else for a moment earlier, but I'm going to talk about something else here again. The other topic this time is “How can I make my psychological state stable?” I'd like to talk about this. You can find out to some extent whether your psychological state is unstable or stable by checking whether you are sticking to the trading strategy you had in mind when you first made the purchase, i.e., weight control, split selling method, target point, etc. There is essentially no psychological disturbance before starting to buy. Therefore, before purchasing, you can plan your trading strategy from a third party's perspective. However, psychological agitation begins as soon as you start buying, and the psychological agitation increases due to price volatility. Therefore, in order to prevent such psychological disturbance, selling in installments is absolutely necessary. The timing of split sales must be changed as the transaction progresses to suit price volatility. Therefore, what you need to think about before proceeding with the purchase is the proportion of investment, the section to proceed with the purchase, the first sale section, and the stop-loss section before starting trading. As you can infer from what I mentioned earlier, the section to purchase is around the HA-Low and HA-High indicators. If you purchase at the HA-Low indicator, the first selling section will be around the HA-High indicator. If you make a purchase at the HA-High indicator, if the HA-High indicator also rises as the price rises, the area around the HA-High indicator that you meet next will be the first selling section. It is recommended to set a stop loss point when you have recorded a loss that you can personally handle. You need to be careful because selling when you are losing too much can increase the psychological agitation mentioned above, which can have a negative impact on your next transaction. Considering this, let's take the stop loss points on the HA-Low and HA-High indicators as an example. There are virtually no support or resistance points below the HA-Low indicator. If you are using an indicator that shows other support and resistance points, you can set the stop loss zone by referring to the support and resistance points. However, it is not easy to set up if only the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators are set. Therefore, when purchasing at the HA-Low indicator, controlling the proportion of investment is very important. This is because it is most effective to reduce the burden of stop loss by controlling the proportion of purchases. Usually, it is recommended to stop loss when the price falls below the opening price on the day you started buying. That way, you can buy at the HA-Low indicator, which would have risen above the HA-Low indicator again the next day. Otherwise, the timing of the purchase will keep changing, which can act as a factor in increasing the average purchase price. The HA-Low indicator is likely to be formed below the MS-Signal indicator. Therefore, rather than buying near the HA-Low indicator to reduce the burden of stop loss, it is also useful to buy when the MS-Signal indicator shows the price maintaining. In such cases, the HA-Low indicator becomes the stop loss point. To start an uptrend, the price must be above the MS-Signal indicator, and the MS-Signal indicator must be indicating an uptrend. Therefore, you can understand these characteristics well and proceed with purchasing near the MS-Signal indicator. I mentioned earlier that because the MS-Signal indicator is a curve, it is not easy to select support and resistance points. To compensate for this, we have made it possible to check the M-Signal indicators of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts on low time frame charts. You can use this to check whether there is support or resistance on the low time frame chart and proceed with the purchase. Looking at the current BTCUSD 1D chart, the HA-Low indicator is rising and forming at the current price position. Therefore, we can see that we have entered a period in which we can proceed with transactions by creating transactions in line with what we have discussed so far. Whether you buy when there is support near the HA-Low indicator or when the MS-Signal indicator switches to a bullish sign depends on your own investment style and trading strategy. -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by readCrypto
1
Simple Introduction to RSI for Crypto TradingCrypto trading can be a rollercoaster ride, with prices jumping up and down. To help you make smarter trading choices, many traders turn to technical tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). In this article, we'll break down what RSI is, how it works, and how you can use it as a crypto trader, even if you're not a finance expert. What is RSI? RSI stands for Relative Strength Index, but you don't need to worry too much about the fancy name. It's just a tool that helps you figure out if a cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold. Think of it like a traffic light for crypto prices, telling you when to slow down or speed up. How Does RSI Work? RSI works by looking at recent price changes and comparing how much a cryptocurrency has gone up versus how much it's gone down. This gives you a number between 0 and 100, which you can use to make better decisions about buying or selling. Here's the simple way RSI is calculated: First, you pick a specific number of days to look at, usually 14 days. This is called the "period." Next, you figure out how much the price went up and down during those 14 days. Then, you calculate the Relative Strength (RS) by dividing the average gain by the average loss. Finally, you use that RS to find the RSI with a simple formula. Interpreting RSI Once you have your RSI number, it's time to understand what it's telling you: RSI above 70: It's like a red light, indicating the crypto might be overpriced and due for a drop. This could be a good time to sell or take some profits. RSI below 30: It's like a green light, suggesting the crypto might be a bargain and due for a rise. This could be a good time to buy or hold on to what you have. RSI between 30 and 70: It's like a yellow light, showing that things are neither too hot nor too cold. It means the market is in a neutral state, and you might want to use other tools to make your decision. Using RSI in Crypto Trading Here are some practical tips for using RSI in your crypto trading: Double-Check with Other Tools: RSI works best when you use it together with other tools and analysis methods. Don't rely solely on it. Look for Divergence: Keep an eye out for times when RSI disagrees with the price. If RSI is showing one thing and the price is doing something else, it could signal a change in the market. Adjust Your Settings: You can tweak the RSI settings to match the crypto you're trading. Shorter periods (like 7 days) react faster, while longer ones (like 21 days) give smoother signals. Manage Risks: Always be careful and use good risk management. RSI can help, but it's not a crystal ball. Set stop-loss orders and make wise decisions about how much you're willing to risk. Conclusion The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is like a helpful traffic light for crypto traders. By understanding its basics and using it alongside other tools, you can make better decisions in the world of crypto trading. Just remember that RSI is a part of your toolkit, not the whole strategy. Use it wisely and keep learning to become a more successful crypto trader. Cheers! GreenCrypto Follow us for more such articles and trading ideas.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GreenCryptoTrades
News-Based Trading: How News Acts as the Best Indicator Beginners diving into the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading often find themselves influenced heavily by news. Eager to anticipate trends and, obviously, earn big, they hang on to every piece of information. Here’s the twist: trading based on news, more often than not, ends in heartbreak and empty pockets. 📉 But what’s the reason? 🔑 KEY QUESTIONS: How can you navigate cryptocurrency trades using news? Can news truly be an effective indicator for cryptocurrency moves? Delving into the ripple effect of news on the crypto sphere. Crafting a winning strategy: Navigating news-based cryptocurrency trades. News: The Puppeteer Behind the Scenes🎭 On the surface, news might look like the golden compass for predicting market moves. However, the waters run deep. Big sharks - those with hefty wallets - often use news as their puppet strings to control the market. They capitalize on the knee-jerk reactions of retail traders. 🎣 Imagine: A piece of unfavorable news is released. Retail traders, gripped by panic, rush to sell their cryptocurrency, hoping to minimize losses. This is when the big players snatch up large amounts of cryptocurrency at bargain prices. Suddenly, the market takes an unexpected turn, soaring high, leaving those sellers scratching their heads in confusion. 🚀 On the flip side, when the headlines scream positive news, the actual price movement might surprise you. The real game-changer isn’t the news per se, but how traders respond to it. 1. Elon Musk & Bitcoin: When Musk revealed Tesla's embrace of Bitcoin, charts showcased this at the pinnacle of the market. Yet, the aftermath? A staggering 50% plunge. 😲 2. Salvador's Bitcoin Move: Despite the buzz and optimism around Salvador adding Bitcoin to its reserves, Bitcoin's price took a surprising dip. 📉 3. Meme Crypto’s Grand Debut: Post the grand showcase of the meme crypto, Shiba Inu, at Times Square, its value dwindled. The euphoria surrounding this news turned to disbelief as Bitcoin dropped by a whopping 70%, with altcoins plummeting by 90%. 😵 These narratives underline the power of news in the cryptocurrency arena, not always for the right reasons. News might ignite fear or trigger euphoria, but it's vital to stay grounded. 🧘 Recognizing the potential manipulative tactics of major players is key. Equipping oneself with a robust trading strategy and a sound risk management plan is your armor against the tumultuous world of cryptocurrency trading. 💡🛡️
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
The Silent Killer: Understanding Inflation's Impact Inflation is an economic phenomenon that gradually erodes the purchasing power of money over time. While it may seem like a minor inconvenience, inflation can have detrimental effects on individual savings , investment returns, and overall economic stability. In this article, we will explore why inflation can be considered a silent killer and delve into the reasons behind the growing interest in Bitcoin as a potential defense against its effects. 1. The Hidden Damages of Inflation: 1.1 Reduced purchasing power 1.2 Diminished savings value 1.3 Income distribution imbalances 2. The Role of Central Banks and Government Policies: 2.1 Monetary policies: Central banks use various tools, such as adjusting interest rates and printing more money, to manage inflation. However, these measures can sometimes have unintended consequences. 2.2 Fiscal policies: Government spending, tax policies, and borrowing influence inflation rates by impacting the money supply and aggregate demand within an economy. 3. The Case for Bitcoin as a Hedge against Inflation: 3.1 Scarce supply: Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency with a limited supply of 21 million coins. Unlike fiat currencies, no central authority can arbitrarily decide to print more bitcoins, reducing the potential for inflationary pressures. 3.2 Store of value: Bitcoin's limited supply and increasing demand make it an attractive store of value, especially in a world where traditional fiat currencies are prone to inflation. 3.3 Global accessibility: Bitcoin transcends geographical boundaries, enabling individuals to protect their wealth and access financial services without relying on traditional banking systems that can be influenced by inflationary pressures. 3.4 Economic uncertainty: In times of economic distress or high inflation, Bitcoin offers a potential safe haven for investors seeking to preserve the value of their wealth independently of traditional financial systems. 4. Considerations and Risks: 4.1 Volatility 4.2 Regulatory challenges 4.3 Technological barriers Inflation can silently erode the value of money, impacting savings, investments, and overall economic stability. While many traditional assets struggle to mitigate inflation risks effectively, Bitcoin can potentially serve as a hedge against inflation due to its decentralized nature, limited supply, and growing global acceptance. However, investors should carefully consider the risks and challenges associated with cryptocurrencies before making investment decisions. What do you want to learn in the next post?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
6
Level up your understandingThe Liquidity game is much, much easier than you think. Most people only want posts that align with their own beliefs, the reality is Bitcoin is becoming institutional and the more players coming does not simply equate to prices rising. Logic will tell you, these "professional money makers" will want better prices, the accumulation phase on this scale will have retail torn apart. Every $100 rally will feel like the time is now and every $50 drop will feel like the end is near. I've shared countless posts and live streams here, talking about the transition. Here's a whole new set of things to think about to educate yourself on the current situation. First of all here's one of the latest streams going into detail of some of the logic. www.tradingview.com In educational terms here we go. When price moves up and volume goes down, this is called divergence. Imagine you're at a party with your friends, and you see two people dancing together. One person is dancing really fast, moving a lot, and having a great time. The other person is dancing slowly and not moving much. This difference in their dance styles is like volume divergence in trading. In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded in a specific time period. It's like how many people are buying and selling stocks or other financial assets. Volume divergence happens when the price of a stock or asset is going in one direction, like going up, but the volume is not matching it. For example, the price might be rising, but not many people are buying or selling it. It's like the dancing person who is moving fast (price going up) but not many people are joining the dance (low volume). Ok so step one, there is a clear divergence of volume... Next I can guarantee some people will question the relationship to the price. Well. I used a box to measure 50% of the move here, just to highlight the obvious. Look left and see the level to volume actually peaked higher on the right and then dropped off, so argument no longer valid. Secondly, the orange line represents the green spike in volume that we lack in the current move. Third point; Look at the Weiss wave moves, again I have covered this in several educational posts here as well as many of my streams, if you don't know what this is. Go back and look through the posts. I often use Weiss to justify a 3 wave in an Elliott wave move. It can quickly highlight the obvious level of impulsive nature. Or in this instance, the lack of. Zoomed in and then over to the monthly timeframe. So what you need to understand is that with lack of impulsiveness and clear divergence, what else can you see that backs up the logic? How about using Oscillators? The monthly stochastic clearly showing overbought. And an off the shelf OBV showing sideways balance If you can learn to read these simple points, your already onto a winner. Many newer traders have strategies that often include RSI, MACD or Moving Averages and 9 times out of 10 it's on too small a timeframe. "If in doubt, zoom out" Combining logical arguments to figure out where you are on the chart can help you develop a much better picture, if you still want to trade smaller times, then you have a bias based on the bigger picture. OK - so next, let's take a look at a slightly more advanced view. This is CVD (cumulative delta); What does the numbers mean? Imagine you have a piggy bank, and every day, you either put money into it or take some money out. The total amount of money you've put in or taken out is like the cumulative delta. In trading, cumulative delta is a way to keep track of the buying and selling activities in the market for a particular financial asset, like a stock. Instead of money, we use something called "contracts" or "shares" to represent the buying and selling. When traders buy a stock, it's like they are putting money into the piggy bank. And when they sell the stock, it's like taking money out of the piggy bank. The cumulative delta keeps track of the difference between the number of shares bought and the number of shares sold throughout the day or a specific period. This image above tracks the numbers for each swing. When coupled with other tools such as Footprint levels, you can see where the higher levels of liquidity is sitting. Now combine the stages above. Let's recap. Bigger players coming in will want better prices. We have divergence on volume. Weiss waves lack impulsiveness. Oscillators oversold or show sideways balance. CVD levels still mostly negative. Footprint key levels have wider gaps to the next layers of liquidity. =============================================================== Now, what else would be worth looking at? Well. one tool I have shared many times in the posts and streams is called COT. COT stands for "Commitment of Traders." It's like keeping track of who is doing what in a big game, but instead of players, we are talking about traders in the financial markets. Imagine you are playing a game with your friends, and you want to know who is on which team. You might have a list that shows how many players are on each team and what roles they play, like who's a striker, who's a defender, and so on. In trading, COT is a report that shows us how many traders are on each team, so to speak. It tells us how many traders are buying and how many are selling certain financial assets, like commodities (like gold, oil) or futures contracts (which are like agreements to buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) AND of COURSE BITCOIN. The COT report is released by official organizations, and it's based on data collected from traders who are required to report their positions in these markets. Why does this matter? revert back to bigger players in the market coming for Bitcoin... just like in a game, knowing which team has more players or which roles are in demand can give you a clue about the game's overall strategy. When we look at the COT report, we can see if there are more traders buying or if more are selling it. This information helps understand the market sentiment. If a lot of traders are buying, it might mean they have a positive outlook, and the price of the asset could go up. On the other hand, if many traders are selling, it might mean they are not so optimistic, and the price could go down. In COT terms, there are two major players I look for in the reports. Asset Managers COT Asset Managers are like assistants for the big investors, like hedge funds or investment firms. These big investors have a lot of money to invest in different things, like stocks, commodities, or other financial assets including Bitcoin. It is the Asset Managers' job to take care of these investments and make sure they are managed well. It's like they are the guardians of the funds. So Asset Managers view of Bitcoin currently seems to be positive. Now for the second player I look at in the COT report. Leveraged Funds Imagine you a bank that allows you to borrow money. You then use that money to invest... Leveraged Funds are a bit like that. They are investment funds that use borrowed money, or leverage, to try to make bigger profits. These funds can invest in different things but in this case their investing in Bitcoin. Here's how it works: Regular Investment: Let's say you have $10, and you decide to put it in a normal bank. Over time, your money might grow a little with interest, and you'll have more than $10. Leveraged Investment: Now, let's imagine you have another bank called a leveraged fund. Your bank give you an extra $10 as a loan, so you have a total of $20 to put into this leveraged bank account. This means you can invest twice as much as you originally had! However, there's also a risk with leveraged funds. If the investments don't do well, you might lose more money than you initially had. For example, if your $20 goes down to $15, you still need to repay the $10 you borrowed, so you'll end up with only $5 of your own money left. The summary here is that larger investors use leveraged funds, so unlike Asset Managers who have a very long outlook. The Leveraged Funds element of the COT report is smaller timeframes but still a lot of volume. So, what is their current view? Whilst we have a positive long term outlook. COT would suggest we are not completely ready to shoot off to the moon just yet. I have really tried to over simplify the post here for the sake of education. There's a lot more to each individual section, but knowing these basics will set you off on the right path. Bitcoin becoming institutional is a great opportunity if you know where to look. These moves are far from random as you can see in this post below. Anyways! take it easy and good luck out there! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
Using Heikin Ashi and MS-Signal Indicatorshello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (1h chart) The biggest disadvantage of trading using moving averages is that it is not easy to identify support and resistance points. To compensate for this to some extent, we looked at how to add and utilize Bollinger bands and StochRSI indicators. The 150 moving average is an important moving average in utilizing the moving average. This 150 Moving Average can be applied and utilized on any time frame chart. The next possible moving average combinations are 5 and 26, 26 and 50. Time frame charts suitable for utilizing the 26 and 50 moving averages can be utilized on charts under the 15m chart. The reason is that it is a time frame chart with too fast volatility. For other time frame charts, i.e. 15m charts and above, you can use a combination of 5 and 26 moving averages. I have written down the names of the indicators displayed on this chart. 5 The indicator corresponding to the moving average corresponds to the Heikin Ashi indicator. 26 The indicator corresponding to the moving average corresponds to the MS-Signal indicator. Therefore, when the 5 moving average crosses upward from the 26 moving average, that is, when a regular arrangement is made, it is time to buy. As such, when the Heikin Ashi indicator breaks above the MS-Signal indicator, it is time to buy. The good thing about using the MS-Signal indicator and the Heikin Ashi indicator is that you can see the breadth along the trend. The thicker the width, the stronger the role of support and resistance. Thus, it provides more confidence in direction than a single line, such as the 5EMA indicator on a 1D chart. And, you can also tell if a trend reversal is taking place or not. This change is indicated by the color change of the MS-Signal indicator and the width of the Heikin Ashi indicator. The transition of the MS-Signal indicator from downtrend to uptrend is indicated by the transition from red to blue. Conversely, a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend is indicated by the transition from blue to red. The Heikin Ashi indicator transitions from blue to orange for a downtrend to uptrend and orange to blue for an uptrend to bearish transition. This change in appearance can be useful when conducting transactions. The M-Signal indicator on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts and the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart are very useful when conducting day trading. Therefore, it is recommended to activate it and check the movement during day trading. The M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart works similarly to the 26 Moving Average. Therefore, the short-term trend of the 1D chart can be intuitively identified by the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. Therefore, it can be very useful if you trade using tradingview brokers. (1D chart) Also, if you mark the M-Signal indicators of the 1W and 1M charts on the chart, you can intuitively know the mid- to long-term trend, so you can complete the chart analysis faster. -------------------------------------------------- -------- With this, we learned how to trade using moving averages and indicators that are more valuable than this. Chart analysis is only one part of the process to trade after all. No matter how good your chart analysis is, if you don't come up with a good trading strategy, you will end up with losses or small profits. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
2
Andrews' Pitchforks are FunHere's an example of a pitchfork drawn on the 2 weekly BNC:BLX chart, measured from the March 2020 low to the Nov 2021 high and completed at the Nov 2022 low, and then extended in direction and levels (up to 9 levels can be added). The chart above makes for a solid example of how pitchforks can be used to derive a trend or channel and find solid support and resistance levels within it. They are also just fun to work with! There are several types of pitchforks which can be tested until you've found one that works best for your chart. They are called Andrews' Pitchforks because they were originally developed by Alan Andrews, with several derivatives created by modifying calculation for the placement of the pitchfork's handle (the slope of its median line): Normal Pitchfork - Andrews' original pitchfork tool. Schiff Pitchfork - moves start of the handle line halfway to the base of the channel. Modified Schiff Pitchfork - handle start is adjusted by a distance equal to half the difference between price values of its first two points (first low and high, or first high and low) of three. Inside Pitchfork - handle adjusted to half of the vertical & half of the horizontal distance between the first two points of three. In the example above, I chose a Modified Schiff Pitchfork , and then identified 3 points of consecutive highs and lows. In this case: low -> high -> low. You can choose to do the opposite of this and start from high -> low -> high, typically your first point should represent the beginning of a new trend. Play around with trying this in different timeframes, and also try editing / adding / removing levels. You can try basic levels at increments of 25% or by utilizing classic Fibonacci levels (or both, as shown above). Pitchforks are a type of Fibonacci tool, so I like using classic Fib levels. You could just use the Fibonacci Channel tool and get a similar result. But, the nice thing about utilizing a pitchfork is that it can help you identify a channel that may not be immediately obvious. Here is another example of using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork to derive trends on a popular altcoin, BINANCE:HBARUSD : Thanks for reading, I hope this was helpful to you. I learned more about pitchforks myself while working on this, and encourage others to do the same!
BNC:BLXEducation
by dudebruhwhoa
Key Interpretation Methods of CCI IndicatorsHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- The CCI indicator, which is included in the 'Strength' indicator, now displays only the oversold or overbought zones. Accordingly, it seems that there will be difficulties in understanding the indicators, so we took the time to give reinforcement explanations. The CCI setting I use is 150. Accordingly, it is utilized to see the flow of the mid-term and above. The basic source value of CCI is (high + low + close) / 3. Accordingly, we added the 150 SMA line and the CCI indicator as a secondary indicator. If it rises a lot from the 150 SMA line, the CCI value rises above +100. When it rises above +100, it is interpreted as entering the overbought zone. Entering the overbought zone like this means that there is a possibility that it will exit the overbought zone in the near future. However, while it is in the overbought zone, it also means that the force to rise is just as strong. Accordingly, it is the basis for conducting transactions by identifying support and resistance points or sections. Conversely, if the price drops a lot from the 150 SMA line, the CCI value will fall below -100. Similarly at this time, when the CCI breaks out of the oversold zone, it enters the sideways zone, providing a basis for trading. When the CCI is between -100 and +100, prices move sideways. It is not easy to analyze with only the CCI indicator when it is in the sideways section with the CCI indicator. Therefore, with the CCI indicator, it is recommended to find the basis for trading when entering and exiting the overbought section (CCI +100) and oversold section (CCI -100). Since you can check the overbought and oversold sections of the Bollinger bands and CCI shown in this price chart, I think it is a good idea to use it together with the Bollinger bands. It is quite difficult to create a trading strategy based solely on indicators like these. Therefore, it is important to create a trading strategy by making sure to set support and resistance points on the price chart and see if the indicators are supported or resisted at those support and resistance points or intervals. The setting value of Bollinger Bands used in this chart is 60. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto