Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.5 - "Double Three"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.5, where we talk further about two more different types of triangles - the Barrier and Expanded triangle. In the previous chapter we talked about the running flat and contracting triangle, but for these two, they are essentially the same but different overall shape! Most importantly, these are very common patterns within the realm of technical analysis and these textbook patterns also have Elliot Wave patterns within these common patterns. So, as you can see, if you can memorize the simple patterns, then you can start applying more advanced theories on top of them!
Chapter 3 Glossary:
3.1 Zig-Zag Waves
3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat
3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle
3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle
3.5 Double-Three
3.6 Triple-Three
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Double-Three
A double-three pattern is most often distinguished by all the segments in the pattern being almost equal. This is also known as an accumulation period! Yes, most people who like to accumulate when markets are flat, even have Elliot Wave patterns applied. To have this outcome, the x-wave should be included in this category as well. It merely means that we can only look for flat patterns for corrections that form both before and after the x-wave. In a way, such a pattern resembles a double-flat pattern, the only difference being that the x-wave retraces more than 61.8% into the territory of the first correction (more on fib levels in the future chapters).
When compared with the double flat pattern, a double three has no channelling component. Even in the case of a double flat, the channelling component is different from what channeling in general means. An important factor in trading a double three is knowing the timeframe the pattern is forming on. If it is forming on a longer timeframe, such as daily, weekly or monthly, then the market is basically taking a lot of time to consolidate, and it is not wise to take a trade based on the move that should follow such a consolidation. The reason for this is that swaps are going to be paid throughout all this time, and swaps are mostly negative. As a quick reminder of what a swap is, it is the difference between the interest rates of the currencies that make up a currency pair; and at the end of a trading day, providing the trades are not closed, a small amount is deducted or added to the trade. Paying a negative swap when trading a double three on the longer timeframes can prove to be an extremely expensive thing to do, and should therefore be avoided.
Technicals:
Again, apart from the normal and shorter corrections, there are actually more complex variations like the double or triple three (the triple three will be talked about in the next sub-chapter). These patterns are a combination of single and simple correction patterns like the zig-zag pattern, the flat, or the triangle variation. These single corrections are associated by a connecting X wave, which can take any corrective form, but is USUALLY in the form of a zig-zag pattern. Characteristics for complex corrections is a sideways movement (consolidation) as indicated by the blue rectangle box.
Rules:
• Zig-Zag patterns and triangles only happen once in this type of combination.
• Triangles only appear as a Wave Y.
• The difference to a double Zig-Zag correction apart from the components, is the horizontal orientation. A Zig-Zag corrects sharper and more against the major trend.
→ It is possible that two flats are appearing, but a flat followed by a triangle is a more common example. As the single corrections tend to alternate in form.
The count for a double three is a W-X-Y. Double three’s are common in the more shallow part of the wave 4.
❗The purpose of double or triple threes is to expand the DURATION of the correction.
❗Watch out for a triangle or a final wave C to catch the continuation of the primary trend. This is where you want to possibly take the trade!
If you have no idea what you are reading, start from chapter 1!
Btc-e
Sceptical indicators, strategies or tools? Thoughts? So this post is a little different - it's not an analysis or really a tutorial. I am looking to see what the community sees as the strangest, craziest, most colourful, most interesting or pointless indicator, strategy or tool?
About 2 years ago I was shown a strategy/technique - I assumed it was complete rubbish, it talks about Lunar dates, cycles. Now although cycles play a role in the market - I wasn't convinced it was powered by the moon. At first, I was very dubious about the concept of what seemed a sceptical idea.
Over the years I have studied Fibonacci, Elliott, Gann, Wyckoff and often see logic to the idea. Now and again something pops up on the radar & I like to explore it. I've tested Algo's and Robots, strategies that claim 97% success rate. You name it and it's possibly sitting in the junk hard drive with my FX/trading pdfs, indicators & videos.
Delta Phenomenon
In the early 80's, Welles Wilder founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the order behind the markets.” This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. All other methods of technical analysis are enhanced by this timing tool. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon gives a higher probability of trading success to existing systems. Mr. Wilder states "I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order."
Now at this point - I'm thinking, why isn't this mainstream or this guy not locked up in a nuthouse?
I had read other Wells Wilder books and found them to be overly simplistic. In that regard, I was not disappointed. Now as I said at the start of this article, I'm not looking to teach the method - it's such a strange concept, I thought there must be other people out there with things they find interesting or pure crazy?
Pitchforks for example - why do they work, how do they work? (not a question, more a statement)
How about Gann? Why and how can Gann techniques plot trend lines for the future?
Master of the Universe - Fibonacci levels - Again, why???
If you look at the dates on the chart above - these are forecasted using the delta technique, in theory, it's trying to predict moves in the market using moon cycles. Blank circles are daily turn points, circles & dots are major moves and the large circles with both, are dates whereby both near and medium dates co-exist.
I am keen to hear what you think? Do you know of the delta phenomenon? Have you used it? What about something else similar? or just something you find interesting or/and random? How about something you are sceptical about?
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Use this chart to predict Altseason in the Crypto market. Use the BTC.D chart to see where capital is flowing in the Crypto market... Into Bitcoin? or out of Bitcoin and into Altcoins.
We are at a key decision point for the market right now so you can be a step ahead of the market if you are watching this chart in particular.
DEADLY Accurate levels from Monthly log. Spider LinesThis chart's support and resistance was inspired by Crypto Face's spider line drawing method, I took candles from the monthly time frame and toggled 'Log' and drew the lines all the way from the first BTC monthly candles. I took every Monthly candle and drew extended rays, first point coming from the top of the first candle low candle of each cycle, second point on the top of nearest ATH at the time. By rinsing and repeating this process through the whole duration of BTC's lows and few ATH candles, this chart was born. You can clearly see that price action reacts very strongly to these levels. You could solely rely on this chart, but it would be best to pair with other TA in my opinion. I have not tested this with other cryptos just yet but I plan to in the near future.
Flat CorrectionHello guys
In this tutorial I'm going to teach you what flat correction is.
Flat correction is a three sub-waves pattern that form 3-3-5.
Wave A and B are corrective wave but wave C is a motive wave.
It's called flat correction because it is sideways.
Follow me for more tutorials.
Cheers :)
How to Catch a Falling Bitcoin KnifeAnother Ultra Long Term chart ( I hate doing short term trades !)
Here is a VERY IMPORTANT quote from Jason Shapiro from the book “Unknown Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager:
" Everyone understands that the market is a discounting mechanism. What people don't understand is that the discounting mechanism is not the price, it is participation. Its not that the price has gone from 50 to 100 and thus the bullish fundamentals are discounted. Its about everyone is long and hence bullish fundamentals are discounted. An example: when amazon stock was about 700-800 everyone said it was ridiculous, calling it a bubble. It was clear though that most people didn't own it else they would not call it a bubble. The stock is now trading above 2300 based solely on participation."
So here is a take on participation (measured using VPVR) over two BTC bull runs (signaled in the chart with a 50-100 MA cross) :
A: Participants who think halving is bullish accumulate thinking (rightly so far) doing so will be a low risk trade.
B: Participants add on to existing positions on bullish confirmation that halving has caused a price rise, long term bears with a functioning pre-frontal cortex jump in.
C: Participants who bought the top in the previous cycle try to get rid of their trauma seeing that price is back at their buy price. Buyers buy their bags. People who are hyper intelligent rationalize that previous top should be the new resistance sell. Too smart they are. The real resistance was Price level B.
D: Participants who think they will buy BTC when it crashes below previous ATH, fomo at these levels after BTC has a near vertical rally, offering no point of entry. Some folks who sold at C buy back again, continuing to rationalize that at least they averted a “potential” bearish scenario.
E: WELCOME NOOBIES
People who do not have the stomach of bearing pain for long term gain, sell at break-even OR at a loss. So two patterns emerge:
1. BUY > price goes down (trauma) > price goes up (hope) > SELL (relief) , OR
2. BUY > price goes up (euphoria) > price goes down (shock) > SELL (relief)
Next bear market bottom: Placing some bids around D and E to catch a falling knife seems to be a good idea. Average in of course coz you never know if price will actually reach D and E. Participants change over time. And as you I show in my display picture: No Pain, No Lambo😊
How to use trendlines when trading cryptocurrency 🎓A lot of newcomers have been asking for educational content because you don't understand why my strategies work and how I conclude that a particular price-action will likely happen on certain assets at certain price-levels. It's lovely that my followers aren't just seeking signals, but actually digests the charts I'm sharing and actively tries to expand their repertoire.
Search no further - here's an easy and free guide to trade cryptocurrency, using trendlines. 🤓
Important aspects of using this strategy
A really important step of this strategy is to consider the number of data points you make your trendline from.
In this educational scenario, I've used thicker lines for the trendlines with more data points and dashed lines for trendlines that almost can't be considered as a useful trend. As you can see, we have a very solid trendline, which makes it likely that some significant price-action will happen – eventually to the upside.
Another crucial aspect of the strategy (and every other strategy other than "hold and pray") is to have a take-profit- and invalidation-area.
We always want to know why we're in the position and why we're out of the position. In this particular scenario, I've decided that a convincing break of the strong, bullish trendline would be an invalidation for the trade. If the trendline breaks it doesn't make sense for me to be in the position anymore, since the trade is solely based on the trendline.
Furthermore, the take-profit areas of the trade are based on historic resistance areas. The highest take-profit area is based on a very weak trendline, which is why I wouldn't leave more than 10% of my initial position size to reach that.
This is an easy strategy for trading any asset, that anybody can use no matter how experienced.
Experienced traders also use this strategy. In my own opinion, simple strategies are the best; you'd be surprised how few indicators experienced traders use.
Feel free to ask any questions or share your thoughts about this strategy! 📝
#BTC - FROM TRADE IDEA TO TRADING PLANYesterday i posted a chart on Twitter, where i was expecting a bounce for bitcoin on the 4h timeframe (i'll post this general idea in the comment section). I had no clue about the kind of pattern it was going to form, so i moved to the 15 min chart, because the bounces most of the time are very fast and you need a lower timeframe. I've seen a double bottom, with the second low higher than the first. Then i've seen an harmonic pattern with a bearish divergence on top, so i was expecting a wave down at that point. The perfect entry point in this kind of price action is the 61,8 % of the last wave up. Using that entry point and a stop loss below the double bottom you have a good risk reward trade setup most of the time.
Learn to Read Charts (Regression & BTC)✅ What is Regression?
Regression is a statistical method used in finance, investing, and other disciplines that attempts to determine the strength and character of the relationship between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other variables (known as independent variables).
The general form of each type of regression is:
Simple linear regression: Y = a + bX + u
Multiple linear regression: Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + ... + btXt + u
✅ We can use linear regression in both Bullish and Bearish markets. All you need is the center and you can easily find the tunnel (channel) for forecasting. Also, you shouldn't let the noises distract you because they might make you misread your highs and lows.
In other words: The tunnel (channel) of your linear regression works as dynamic support and resistance.
✅ TradingView lets you use the Regression Trend for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in the toolbar beside your chart.
The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVEElliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks.
To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool.
The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it.
Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker.
Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure.
Major rule
Wave 2;
If you can identify a wave 2 but it is less than 50% of wave 1 - be careful as it could create a double bottom (in an uptrend) and dip a little lower before moving up.
with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3.
Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2.
Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup...
We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%)
Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on.
It would be great to get some additional comments from traders who use Elliott every day, even from new traders only now getting into Elliott waves. Any additional tips or trips from the pro's for the newer traders?
If you are new to Elliott waves - see the related post below for the basic concept.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Guide to Successfully Trade Crypto (Short Term)Cryptocurrency is becoming more and more popular as Bitcoin rises in value and it is attracting new investors from different levels of experience. If you're new to the space then it's likely you will be buying coins after ICO's and wont be privy to private sales along with the DeFi portion of crypto , which is literally a whole other world.
Since I've started trading Crypto I've had a huge learning curve, with thanks to my team who has gotten me up to speed on this space.
Trading Crypto is not like the traditional assets most of us are used to trading. To be profitable day trading, a few helpful tips I've realized are:
1. You have to follow the volume and momentum. There are thousands of coins that will show great price patterns, but only the coins with volume are gonna be the ones that give you the gains you're looking for. There is AT LEAST 2 coins going +50% a day depending on the exchange you're trading on. The coins that make these moves are usually not your traditional names like ETH, DOGE or LTC. Because there are so much coins, you never know which one will be the one to make that impulse move on the day, which is why I like to make lists of coins showing specific patterns and group them. 9 times out of 10 I'll have 1 coin that makes the big move. Dont wait for a big move due to hype that may take forever to come, i.e ADA
2. Dont fall in love with the projects , you're in it for the money, not the tech. While there will be many uses for the Cryptocurrency you trade, falling in love with a coin because of its use can put you in trouble, because you're more inclined to hold during huge drawdowns, which will put a strain on your margin if you're margin trading, and the opportunity cost of trading a coin with more volume if you're spot trading.
3. Whatever you do, dont FOMO in. Because of the insane volatility of these coins, it can seem like the only place they can go is up. But let me tell you...from experience, it's always best to wait for a more logical and safe reaction when you see a huge 4H candle still pumping. Coins with huge volume will usually have a slow pullback and continuation. Also, if you buy in with a large enough order, you'll just be providing liquidity for sellers and the bots WILL eat you alive.
4. Learn to confidently trade using price action. Using price action will be your best option when trading cryptocurrency in the short term. Because of the rapid movements, traditional indicators like oscillators and moving averages which normally lag, will be of even less help in this market. Some patterns I've found useful that are very easy to spot are triangle patterns and breaking and retesting of an ATH.
5. Do some research. Learn about different tokens and their uses and news specific to your coin. Even you'll be trading short term, learning about the coins you trade can give you great insight to what may happen in the near future. For example, Chilliz $CHZ is a sports related NFT more specifically tied to soccer/football. I am quite familiar with the football industry and see how Chilliz has been implemented in very large clubs; I also know how radical football fans are for their favorite clubs and can see Chilliz growing much more in the longer term as it is utilized by more teams. By me knowing this, instead of exiting a trade, I may be inclined to leave some profit and let it run....dependent on the price action ofcourse.
6. Pay attention to Bitcoin. Most Alt Coins are heavily correlated with BTC and will follow bitcoin and some even suffer a multiplied affect. Meaning that if BTC drops 3% then an ALT Coin may drop 11%. This is the tricky part of trading Alts and its best to expose yourself a wide variety of coins so you know which ones react less (KSM for example).
7. Take your profits. Like any market, it's always best to take your profits, there is nothing wrong with it. There has been countless times I've been up and was greedy and decided not to take any profits and had to sit through a huge drawdown. This is a rapid market, and as quick as price goes up, it will come back down, and you may not have the volume to get back up to your entry until a few days later, which is brutal to sit through.
There is much more that can be said, but for right now, I think this guide will help anyone new to trading Crypto and will help the learning curve. Overall, I think Cryptocurrency is still in its early stages and there is way more to be exploited in terms of trading, staking, farming, De-fi and investing.
If you got this far, thanks for reading! This is also my 100th post so leave a like and/or comment and let me hear your thoughts!
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 3.4 - "Barrier/Expanded"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 3.4, where we talk further about two more different types of triangles - the Barrier and Expanded triangle. In the previous chapter we talked about the running flat and contracting triangle, but for these two, they are essentially the same but different overall shape! Most importantly, these are very common patterns within the realm of technical analysis and these textbook patterns also have Elliot Wave patterns within these common patterns. So, as you can see, if you can memorize the simple patterns, then you can start applying more advanced theories on top of them!
Chapter 3 Glossary:
3.1 Zig-Zag Waves
3.2 Flat Correction , Expanded Flat
3.3 Running Flat, Contracting Triangle
3.4 Barrier Triangle, Expanded Triangle
3.5 Double-Three
3.6 Triple-Three
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Barrier Triangle
The only difference from the contracting triangle is that the line BD or ACE is horizontal. This is actually a very common pattern we see used daily by traders - the "ascending triangle". The other one goes towards a horizontal line, so a Barrier Triangle is a variation of the contracting pattern. A barrier triangle has the same characteristics as a contracting triangle except that waves B and D end at essentially the same level.
Expanded Triangle
Most rules are the same as for contracting triangles, with these minor differences (make sure to memorize these as well!):
- Waves C, D, and E each move beyond the end of the previous same-directional subwave (the result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D diverges from a line connecting the ends of waves A and C.)
In the next chapter we will be going over the double three, and finally the triple three as a conclusion to chapter 3.
Make sure to read review all of my previous chapters. It will start to get more advanced!
How To Lose Money With CONFUSION (timeframe mixing) The issue for many new traders is understanding the correlation between timeframes. We often get caught up in indicators, news hype, chat room posts, and various other things.
One of the biggest challenges I see when talking to new traders is simply the lack of "experience" in reading multiple timeframes. This causes confusion and even self-doubt. The issue with the internet being so vast is there is a lot of info - but what do you go with & why?
In this post I have tried to "dumb it down" - the simple idea is to pick your timeframes based on your trading style.
Now if work gets in the way and you need to trade end of day or even swing (Longer-term) then really, you shouldn't stress so much about a 15 minute candle. A lot can happen throughout the day. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, if you are sat in front of your screen every minute the market is open. (scalping) then trying to work out what the monthly is doing whilst you hold a trade for an hour is not going to affect your trade (in general).
To give you a great example of this - I trade COT data as it's swing, with Monthly and weekly bias. I will have a mentee say something like "COT is a buy, but the price has dropped". Yes if you're looking at the 4-hour candle. If you think what institutional players can manage in terms of drawdown, especially using hedging techniques. It's far greater than the guy investing £5k of savings into Bitcoin.
If a hedge fund buys Bitcoin at 45k and the price drops to 22.5k - the likelihood is they have a hedged position & will be buying it all back at fair value. Whereas Mr £5k has lost some sleep & half of his capital - bailed, only to see the price shoot back up above his original entry.
You think of someone like Elon Musk - if his entry of a Billion Dollars was at 40k (example) and price drops to 20k, he has a paper loss of 500m for sure, it will hurt. But again if the Tesla share price drops from 800 to 700, he has a paper loss of (say 20 Billion) - a 500m loss on paper is less of a concern. *** You get the picture.
Investors & traders know that things don't just moon! they have dips, impulsive moves and so on.
So take the charts into account - You have an idea of what timeframes to pick based on your own personal availability or your style you have already identified. As a scalper it's easy to use 4 hour or even a 1 hour candle for your bias - a 15minute for a local area of interest & an entry on a 1m - 5m chart. (example only).
If you trade swing trades (depending on the overall time & expectations) a weekly bias, a daily interest and a 4hour trigger could be what you look for.
Here are some examples;
In these examples - all I have done is used 1 tool. This is only to show the idea - If stochastic is up then I want to be Bullish, if down I'll consider Bearish moves. Keep in mind this could be anything from above/below a moving average, a key price level or a magnitude of other things. Even other tools like RSI for example.
Example of step down
The idea is this gives you a directional bias.
Then we look at the area of interest.
And finally - we want to look down on the next timeframe for the trigger (entry)
Traders can easily get confused with one timeframe saying one thing and the next timeframe up or down saying something else. If you can treat it like a tick sheet, you can step down with confidence and work on a strategy favouring your directional bias & that's in confluence with the time period & your expectations.
This really is an oversimplified breakdown. Just to give a general idea.
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) I have recently had some questions on some of the basics such as moving averages. First of all, there is some great free content out there via sites such as Babypips
I wanted to share some simple info to at least explain what a moving average is. Where it is used and what are the types of.
Moving average is a simple, technical analysis tool. Moving averages are usually calculated to identify the trend direction of a stock or to determine its support and resistance levels. It is a trend-following—or lagging—indicator because it is based on past prices.
They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Moving averages are a totally customizable indicator, which means you can freely choose whatever time frame they want when calculating an average. The most common time periods used in moving averages are 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. The shorter the time span used to create the average, the more sensitive it will be to price changes. The longer the time span, the less sensitive the average will be. @TradingView has many of these tools to use under the list of indicators.
A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing prices; for example, a 5-day simple moving average is the five-day sum of closing prices divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as new data becomes available, causing the average to move along the time scale.
Then you have an Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average. EMAs differ from simple moving averages in that a given day's EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA.
Highlighting the difference between an MA & an SMA - The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), in that it aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. The indicator takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period.
Then how it can be used and applied, *** There are many strategies out there, the most basic starts with above or below a level (above = buy, below = sell) And then it steps into two moving averages crossing for example. Also as I mentioned above - other indicators use a form of moving average to calculate their plot.
Another simple strategy - Investopedia
This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA, because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps.
🍒Plot three exponential moving averages—a five-period EMA, a 20-period EMA, and 50-period EMA—on a 15-minute chart.
🍒Buy when the five-period EMA crosses from below to above the 20-period EMA, and the price, five, and 20-period EMAs are above the 50 EMA.
🍒For a sell trade, sell when the five-period EMA crosses from above to below the 20-period EMA, and both EMAs and the price are below the 50-period EMA.
🍒Place the initial stop-loss order below the 20-period EMA (for a buy trade), or alternatively about 10 pips from the entry price.
🍒An optional step is to move the stop-loss to break even when the trade is 10 pips profitable.
🍒Consider placing a profit target of 20 pips, or alternatively exit when the five-period falls below the 20-period if long, or when the five moves above the 20 when short.
I hope this helps - Please feel free to add more info below. Any suggestions & comments to help new traders, always appreciated.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BUYING THE DIPS Made SimpleBuying dips can be tricky, the issue is knowing if it's an actual dip or a full trend reversal. I used to think buying at a lower price to double down on an investment going the wrong way was a good idea. However, after reading a book called the Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther - the penny actually dropped. In essence, profit is profit. It does not have to be made from a stock or instrument that you are currently losing. Know when to run, when to cut losses and when to stick with it. Unfortunately by the time you understand true hedging techniques, you will be too late.
Kenny Rogers said it best - "You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run"
I highly recommend both the Zurich Axioms book and a listen to Kenny Rogers - The Gambler.
The logic behind buying the dips
🍒 Buying the dips refers to going long an asset or security after its price has experienced a short-term decline, in repeated fashion.
🍒 Buying the dips can be profitable in long-term uptrends, but unprofitable or tougher during secular downtrends.
🍒 Dip buying can lower one's average cost of owning a position, but the risk and reward of dip-buying should be constantly evaluated.
Simple Ideas for buying dips
Use an arsenal of tools to help you spot opportunities.
You will see in this image RSI and MACD have different ideas - there is no wrong or right, it's up to you to work on the things that work for you. However, you don't want tools that either do more or less the same thing or conflict. So as per the first image - using a moving average for (up or downtrend) this could be a larger period such as a 200.
Envelopes
Utilizing envelopes of sorts will help visualize channels - this could be tools such as Bollinger Bands or Regression channels. Much like Moving averages - you won't need both and there are thousands of tools I have not used. So you need to experiment with something that you like or suits your needs and style.
Like all trading strategies, buying the dips does not guarantee profits. An asset can drop for many reasons, including changes to its underlying value. Just because the price is cheaper than before doesn't necessarily mean the asset represents good value.
Trend lines can be very subjective and educators and mentors teach them in a million different ways. They can be used, but again - back test and find what works for you.
- you can see the difference between a simple trend line and conflict with Bollinger; this is what causes doubt. The subjective trendline says one thing and the calculated/measured tool says another. Which do you follow?
The problem is that the average investor has very little ability to distinguish between a temporary drop in price and a warning signal that prices are about to go much lower. While there may be unrecognized intrinsic value, buying additional shares simply to lower an average cost of ownership may not be a good reason to increase the percentage of the investor's portfolio exposed to the price action of that one stock. (Investopedia)
🎲 If trading stocks there are other tools available that are not accessible in trading currencies or other instruments - things like EBITDA or P&L sheets to give further confirmation of continuation in the trend.
ISSUES
As many new traders don't yet understand the losses are part and parcel of trading, seeing your account in red plays on the human emotions (we have all been there) and this makes us do crazy things - doubling down on trades, adding more money to avoid margin calls, buying into a losing trade again and again.
I wrote an idea recently on how the mindset is represented on a chart.(click for post)
Simplicity
You can use simple price action to spot key levels - over the years one thing I have found is levels such as Order Blocks and imbalances. Plenty of info online for this - no need to go into here, save for another post,
Then when combined with regression channels you can start to paint "expected" levels of interest.
Just to show an example I have added EMA, Bollinger, Hand drawn regression and an imbalance level.
🔢 Elliott Wave Theory 🔠
Another awesome tool for finding directional bias - If combined with other techniques, indicators and tools, this can be mighty powerful as a whole.
A simple explanation of Elliott wave from another previous post (click for post) -
In Summary - you need a belief and a reason that you assume the stock is going higher. It does not matter if it's SPX, Bitcoin or Apple. Secondary you need a directional bias confirmation such as a 200 EMA. I would say to include an envelope (channel) of some description, Something to help you confirm the trend (Elliott) for example. And then a trigger, this could be a candlestick formation, an RSI or MACD overbought/sold signal. Something that suits you and your style.
I hope this helps. Be great to get other ideas, comments or strategies from others below!
Have a great weekend!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
How to not get rekt 🤩I've seen this too many times to skip writing about it at this point.
This is NOT the stock market. BTC is still extremely volatile, so play your cards safely, folks. Don't FOMO into your positions like a dummie.
A good trick I've learned from the past, is to buy in with a little, just to get rid of the FOMO. Then when the market "crashes" 20% later this week, you can buy in for cheap.
Bitcoin is still in a correction and I am being very careful with leverage. I don't want to get liquidated just to see BTC go to 65k in it's next move.
How to chart Premium/Discount to NAV for BTC Closed-end FundsThis is very different from my usual analyses, but I still hope you enjoy!
This chart calculates the premium or discount you are paying/receiving when trading GBTC . If you don't understand how such a thing can happen I will explain at the end!
For now I will explain how I created such a chart and how you can do it yourself! This can be applied to other bitcoin Trust/Fund.
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How it's done
The goal is to get the premium or discount (P/D), For this example we will look at GBTC :
1. To do that we need to divide the price per share by what the share is really worth (in our case the value in bitcoin of the share). This will give us the ratio of the price vs its value.
Price per share / Net asset value per share
2. We get the value per share by multiplying how many BTC we get per share by the Bitcoin price.
Net asset value per share = BTCUSD*0.00094680 <---- This value can be found on the Fund website
3. We substract 1 out of the ratio to get the value of the (P/D).
(P/D) = (Price per share / Net asset value per share)-1
4. To chart this we go to enter a symbol and enter : GBTC /(BTCUSD*0.00094680)-1
Like I said this can be applied to other BTC fund. Say you want it for QBTC: QBTC.U/(BTCUSD*0.00112383)-1
Extra Notes:
-BTC per share values change so verify before using mine you could be mislead
-I suggest using a line chart, but you can experiment!
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How to interpret
1. If the value on the chart >0 the fund is trading at a premium and for values <0 it's trading at a discount.
2. Value are in decimal so if you see a value of -0. 05 the fund is trading at a discount of 5%
3. Values will tend to normalize around the annual fee for the fund(ex: GBTC -> -0.02).
4. After market values will be based on the closing price of the fund, but will continue to fluctuate since Bitcoin is 24H.
Wait for the market to be open to get real time premium/discount
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How does this happen?
Often when we see a premium or discount we can generally blame it on 3 key factors:
Supply and demand , Management team and expectation. While pretty self explanatory if you want to more info I suggest you check out this Investopedia page:
www.investopedia.com
I hope this helped you and your trading. Thank you for reading!
Education - How does a bubble develop and what are the signs?Preface:
This learning content or information is merely my experience, or are those techniques that I use or find useful.
The beauty of technical analysis is that an analysis or forecast can be made using many different approaches.
These differ in effort, approach, tools and technical approaches.
However, I think one thing is important:
Keep the chart as simple as possible, try to see what is obvious and work with as few tools as possible but as many as necessary.
If you base your analysis on what seems obvious, it is likely that many other traders will also see it. This in turn would support a movement in the predicted direction.
= Self-fulfilling prophecy
-> Examples: Moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, Simple formations etc....
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Remark:
This is supposed to be a small help to identify signs of a bubble formation, I must absolutely note that a lot of experience and knowledge is necessary here, which I can not convey in a hurry, as this would definitely go beyond the scope.
Just try to analyze the BTC rise of 2017 with the help of these signs, or even the current rise.
What is a bubble ?
A bubble is usually easy to recognize in retrospect, a lot of green long candles, few red candles, until usually a high point. Then lots of big and long red candles and few green :)
But how do I recognize a bubble while it is forming?
Important:
Please read through the wave age tutorial I wrote beforehand, this understanding is needed to continue here.
If a trend does not consolidate sufficiently, but on the contrary shows shorter and shorter consolidations, rises faster and faster and ideally is still fueled by media interest, then these are the first signs of a bubble. (See bar in the chart)
Within a trend, the price must consolidate sufficiently after a rise (to go into this in more detail would go beyond the scope).
If now the trend in the period under review over the zenith, so after eg 6 waves, a new high and then further waves, with steeper and steeper price increases, so a bubble is to be assumed.
The price MUST consolidate sufficiently to be sustainable.
In the weekly, we can see that the price is moving further and further away from the standard SMAs (20,50,200) until it reaches an unnatural distance, which also indicates that the market may be in a bubble.
As soon as such signs appear, it is important to set very tight stops, as it can come to an abrupt end.
Summary:
-Ever steeper rises
-Ever shorter consolidations
-Distance to SMAs is becoming uncharacteristic of the market
Bonus: Media coverage of the asset
Annotation:
Since the weekly chart is shown here, it is not possible to see how the price reversal occurred. A SKS formed in the H4 , this was the beginning of the end of the steep rise.
Also today, we have the same signs as 2017, to note was the very strong and violent reaction , this does not mean that the course will now immediately sink it can go before still on 60.000 , 70.000 or even more high, from my point of view, the current consolidations were not sufficient, I have this in mind when placing a stop
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If I like this kind of tutorial, so leave me a like there and follow me. If there is enough interest I will post more tutorials like this in the future
Best regards and good luck
DCT Trading