Best shot for bears if we get white vertical through a green barCAVEAT - SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Trying to work out conditions that need to be met for a big downward move using "line break charts" and MACD.
This weekly one show better what a green bar with a white vertical through it could do for bears
Btc-e
EW Analysis: DASH Is Showing Bullish EvidencesHello traders!
Today we will talk about cryptocurrencies, specifically DASH in which we potentially see the bottom and bullish reversal.
Well, what we have noticed in the Crypto market is that we usually see some trend changes at the end of the year. Let's take Bitcoin for example; BTC topped at 20k at the end of 2017, then bottomed at 3k at the end of 2018 and now at the end of 2019, we may see another trend change, ideally to the upside after a complex corrective decline in the second half of 2019.
Anyway, let's talk about Dash. Dash was not so strong like BTCUSD in the beginning of 2019, which has later, in the second half of 2019 caused bigger and much more impulsive decline back to 2018 lows, mainly because of BTC dominance, while BTCUSD was trading just in a corrective downtrend. But now, at the end of 2019 and in the beginning of 2020 seems like we may see a bullish reversal once again, so let's go through some evidences.
The first evidence is that DASH might have completed a big five-wave decline from June 2019 highs.
The second evidence is that DASH formed a big an ending diagonal (wedge pattern) into the final wave 5.
And the third, the most important evidence is that we can see a five-wave bullish turn from the 38.00 psychological target level, which confirms more upside at least for wave "c"or "iii" after pullback in wave "b" or "ii".
That being said, we believe that DASH can see at least a bigger recovery in three waves towards 80 area, but there's also a high probability that we may see even higher prices towards within wave "iii" this year.
Be humble and trade smart!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin Dominance Cheat Sheet 2020Presented is the Bitcoin Dominance Chart.
We've since reached target of the major Broadening Descending Wedge it was on which granted many moon seasons pre 2019.
I have marked all major resistances and supports, Fibs from the ATH to ATL. And then Fibs from the ATL to the current high of 2019-2020.
Moving forward, these levels should be heavily respected, along with the trend lines.
This Is BitcoinTrading isn't easy, that is for sure. Of course the setups all seem easy on paper but when it comes to putting your money on the line IRL there are many traps. This is why risk managment and not going "all in" is so important. You must survive to profit.
P.S. Thank you to all my long time followers and interacters. You guys have seen me at my heights and at my lowest. I appreciate the iteraction and the comments and likes. TBH that one like or that one comment that you give means alot and it is always fun to interact with random internet people while we trade fake internet money! haha Peace guys
[BTC] Possible Redistribution.BTC had nice rally recent days.
To break down recent price action, see 1H chart.
1. Big volume push price from 6,950 to 7,260 (4.5%).
2. After 1, no bigger volume seen.
3. This morning, we see another big volume pushing price from 7,760 to 8,000 (3%).
It's possible that, some whale bought up in step 1, and is selling in step 3.
If that's the case, we won't see price going down immediately, because there are still buyers willing to trade on 7,900.
We can even see price break 8K, only to find out if the balance of buying and selling is broken.
Only then, the momentum of price action will turn to downward.
BTC Weekly OB'sFor those interested, OB's are quite the holy grail in BTC, together with RSI divergences... and PA (patterns, candles, etc...)
The only untested OB's are shows in blue, the ones already tested in green...
So we can see we have our bullish OB above PA untested, even if we gonna make a new low, we should test it, starts at 8223$ and ends at 9529$, but closing above 50% OB at 8876$ we are more inclined for upside continuation, closing above 9529$ or will be bull trap or we'll pump to next OB from there because it's bullish.
On the other hand, we haven't tested the bearish OB and we should do it, sooner or later (it makes sense sooner, probably after poking 8223$), closing below 50% OB at 7314$ we're more inclined for downside continuation, closing below 7119$ or will be bear trap, or we will dump from there because it's bearish.
So, right now we have a small range, a medium range and a larger range:
Tighter range: 7500$ - 8223$
Medium range: 7314$ - 8876$
Larger range: 7119$ - 9529$
As explained above, you already know what to do!
About the highest OB, we can't really say it's untested as we tested right after closing below with 2 candles (1 wick and 1 candle close inside, as you see, BTC wicked 50% OB but wasn't able to close above, so it dumped from there.
I drawn it like untested OB, because going up, from bottom 3k to high, you can see that we haven't poked that OB, and it's the only one untested, so I'd say we will do it, when... that's the question, but soon if we remain bullish and printing HH, HL.
OB's are magnificent tool to trade, learn them if you wanna be successful!
Chart is almost naked, just OB's, and you could trade solely on them.
PS: I just drawn the OB's that matter the most for the recent price action and to show how they "always" get tested!
PSS: I might be confusing bearish and bullish, because I don't need to name them and never do, would rather call them green and red but some are white and black :)
Doji lesson 1-2-2020Hello again. I am just being observant this a.m. and looking at these dojis on the 1hr. This method is not perfect but I use it often. When I see a doji (like the ones indicated) and the doji is at the top of an uptrend or downtrend I will often take a position. I can not tell you I have won every time I do but I would put my win/loss ratio to 75% win - 25% loss. Bitcoin has a mind of its own and if you have traded for any amount of time you should know that by now. But there are a few things that can signal a turn around and this is one of them.
When a doji shows up at the top of an uptrend it can signal a drop. If the doji shows up at the bottom of a down trend it can signal a reversal as well. You need to play these with a stop loss. Anything can and will happen. If the doji shows up at the bottom of a downtrend than pay attention to the wick. The wick should be longer on the bottom from my experience. These dojis seem to work better than the ones with a taller upper wick.
Same goes for a doji at the top of an uptrend. If the wick on top is taller than the one below it works better as a reversal indicator in my opinion. Its easy to see how well this method works. Just scroll back through history. I have made decent $$$ from this technique. But WTFDIK right?
December Futures Comparison, Bitmex XBTZ19 vs. Deribit BTC27Z19Now that I created indicators for tracking both Bitmex and Deribit futures, I decided to do a comparison between the two before we loose the December Futures Data. Initial observation is that Deribit Futures seem to trade at a higher premium. Let me know your thoughts?
If you are new to my posts, please check out my other ideas and indicators in related links below...
MAJOR TOOL YOU MUST HAVE IN YOUR TRADING TOOL BOX!COINBASE:BTCUSD
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE COVERED! It is so important that you understand support and resistance. It may seem so basic but this alone can make you consistent profits. Understanding where the market may pivot is an edge you simply can not afford to not have in your technical plan.
If you have any questions or comments, leave them down below and i will get back to you! want a topic covered? let me know in the comments.
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Bitcoin Market Cycle. Psychology & Mechanics.Just as important, riding a bicycle, or even a supercar, doesn’t fall under the train, in order to understand when and in which direction to trade - you need to figure out who you are playing against, how to behave in each of the phases of the market, and how to identify these phases.
Today we’ll talk about the mechanics of the market and its participants. According to the postulates of technical analysis, which in turn is based on the law of market fractality, there are market cycles in which 4 phases can be distinguished:
1. Accumulation
2. Acceleration
3. Distribution
4. Shaking out
There is also theory that divides the cycle only into accumulation and distribution, we distinguish 4 phases, which, in our opinion, describe in more detailed market participants behaviour.
The problem of many novice traders and investors is precisely the lack of an optimal exit point from the transaction. Understanding the phases of the market will be helpful in solving this problem.
Consider each phase in more detail:
Accumulation - this phase visually looks like a horizontal corridor with low volatility and increased volumes. On Bitcoin, this phase can be observed twice on weekly charts in 2015 and 2019. At this moment, large limit players of long positions are activated. Lows and highs cease to be updated. These market participants operate on the principle of buy low - sell high. Accordingly, they have models of fundamental asset pricing, and the fair price that it should cost. Purchases are made below this price. As a result, there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, which affects future pricing. The latter is becoming less and less inside the accumulation. At a time when there are not enough sellers on the market ready to push the price further, a control purchase on the market occurs, which causes the first update of three-month highs and the subsequent market reversal. Then begins the phase of overclocking the market.
Acceleration - at this moment, traders on 1D or less charts are activated. Highs begin to update and lows cease to be updated. A growing market is starting to create excitement and attract new money, interested in future benefits. These participants can act for fundamental, technical, or emotional reasons and with their money push the course upwards by buying market orders. Participants in the purchase phase during the accumulation phase begin moderate sales above their “fair” price starting distribution.
Distribution is the culmination of closing purchases made during the accumulation phase. In this phase, the highs cease to be updated, but the lows have not yet begun to be updated. At the potential top of the bull market, large players will want to sell stocks previously purchased at low price levels, which will take profits. Most of them will place large sell orders in a certain price range. Each sale should be absorbed by market makers who create the market. Some orders will be executed immediately, another part will go to the order book. Market makers will resell, which must be executed without lowering the selling price of their own, or other traders. Large limit orders in a glass can maintain a rate higher than the price at which the remainders of the "initiators" are added to players who are too optimistic about prices in the near future. After closing the deals of the “initiators”, limit purchase orders disappear from the glass and the remaining mass of the market falls under the influence of the supply thrown onto the market - a bearish trend begins, and with it the shaking out phase.
Shaking Out - new minimums becomes lower. The market is accelerating in down trend and trying to get balance. Afterwards market starts to slow down and then volatility goes down. At some point, traders who are already trading short positions leave the instrument for other, more volatile ones. The strongest holders who have not yet sold their assets remain in the cold darkness. At one point, market capitulation occurs. The market cycle is over. There is no weak holders anymore. If fundamentally there is a potential for growth and the price is "underestimated", a new phase of accumulation begins. If fundamentally everything is bad, the asset goes into non-existence and is replaced by dozens of new ones.
For hundreds of years, technology, markets, products have changed, but not psychology - the psychology of the masses, built on greed and fear, remains unchanged for hundreds of years.
In order to learn how to successfully trade, unlike investing, you must forget about the intrinsic value of a stock, or any other instrument. All that you should care about is the perceived value - the value that professionals imagine, and not the one that reflects the interests of the issuer. Intrinsic value is only part of the perceived value. Remember that instrument quotes reflect precisely its perceived value, and not internal, as you might have thought.
When to quit:
1. The ideal way is to exit at the beginning of the distribution phase. At this point, the new high will be lower than the previous one. The first signals will be reversal candle patterns, with a continuation in the form of bearish volumes. many technical indicators will show divergence signals.
2. If you missed this moment, after the first downward wave, there will be a correction. Oscillators will show a way out of the oversold zone with the high below the previous one.
3. If you missed this signal, then it is advisable to exit on the signal-momentum indicators, or on the next correction wave of lower time frames.
Congratulations! Now you understand the mechanics of the market and, perhaps, this article will help you not to fall into the trap of the market. And if without multiyears of trading experience you want to be profitable on cryptocurrencies market from the begin - join to FOBS!
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BTCUSD & ETHUSDT | Direct correlation of assets' price actionAt the 4H-timeframe scale it can be clearly seen how perfectly correlated are Bitcoin and Ethereum price actions in the middle term.
There are vertical flags with dates and time from the beginning of the observation till the current moment. Starting from the 21th of November you can see each sharp movement duplicates, even IHS patterns were formed in the same manner.
What does it mean?
1. Bitcoin's capitalization and Ethereum capitalization is represented mostly by the same big players now.
2. Once fundamental news arrive and affect the market big players either fix their crypto to stable coins in case they expect drop or enter the market back diversifying their holdings between ETH and BTC in equal proportions.
3. It does not seem like a
collusion it is more likely big players want to diversify, however this now destroys opportunities of diversification.
4. Because ETH and BTC can no longer be used for diversification soon we will see whales choosing other instruments for it.
5. Once new coin is determined ETH will have an inverse correlation with Bitcoin. Moreover Ethereum will face with a sharp value drop once it happens.
Conclusion:
Do not use Ethereum for diversification in the mid or long term. Ethereum is now risky for long term holdings, choose several top-10 cryptocurrencies instruments for it
Dragononcrypto 3 Month Graphical ReviewIn order to promote accountability and transparency, here is a collation of all the BTC/USD calls I have made in the past 3 months. Note that some where on smaller time frames than the Daily (that is used in this graphic), such as the 1hr and 4hr, but otherwise remain relevant to the review.
Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns
Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
Technical Analysis Highlights September-December 2019
Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?
TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross
If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
If Bitcoin Repeats History? Descending Triangle Looking Similar
Bitcoin | Price Prediction by 2020..!!What is Bitcoin..!!
Bitcoin is a digital form of cash. But unlike traditional fiat currency, there is no central bank controlling it. Each unit of Bitcoin is unique and cannot be copied or destroyed, and it runs on top of a distributed network, maintained by thousands of computers around the world.
Bitcoin Features..!!
- Decentralized access allowing any party with the open-source software and internet access to send and receive Bitcoin irreversibly without third party interference or trust.
- Decentralized governance via open-source development and forking.
- Relatively slow block times in comparison to other crypto-currencies although there are solutions in development such as the Lightning Network aiming to solve the problem of scaling.
- Largest hashrate (ensuring the security and resilience of the blockchain) and largest liquidity.
- Most common currency for crypto-currency exchange pairing
- The hard coded scarcity (maximum 21 million coins) has led to comparisons to traditional physical scarce resources like gold.
- Transactions are pseduo-anonymous. Funds are sent address to address, but an owner identity can eventually attributed to an address given enough data and analysis.
- Average blocktime of 10 minutes; Total supply of 21 million BTC; Consensus via Proof of Work (SHA-256).
Bitcoin Milestones..!!
31st October 2008 - White paper released by Satoshi Nakomoto.
3rd January 2009 - Genesis block mined by Satoshi Nakomoto.
12th January 2009 - First transaction using Bitcoin; Satoshi Nakomoto sends 100 BTC to Hal Finney.
22nd May 2010 - First recorded commercial transaction using Bitcoin; aka Pizza Day.
14th January 2016 - Lightning Network white paper, a Layer-2 solution to scaling Bitcoin.
1st August 2017 - Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork.
23rd August 2017 - Segregated Witness (SegWit) implemented.
What is Bitcoin halving?
An event that halves the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. It occurs once every four years.
Will the Bitcoin price change?
Historically, the price has gone up following a halving, but it ultimately depends on the supply/demand ratio.
Essentially, Bitcoin halving cuts down the supply of BTC, making the asset more scarce. If the demand is there, the price is likely to increase. There are also some historical precedents. On Nov. 28, 2012, the day of Bitcoin’s first halving, the cpryptocurrency’s price rose from $11 to $12, and continued to climb up throughout the next year, reaching $1038 on Nov. 28, 2013.
Roughly four years later, a month before the second halving, Bitcoin’s price started to follow a similar, bullish pattern. It surged from $576 on June 9 to $650 on July 9, 2016 — the day the block’s reward was reduced by half for the second time in the asset’s history. Again, BTC continued to accelerate through the next year, albeit with occasional turbulence, and traded at $2526 on 9 July 2017.
Will it be the same next time? Skeptics believe that the halving has already been priced in (remember this year’s epic, but short-lived systematic price increase?). Although, there is no scientific way to verify this.
Moreover, the industry has drastically changed over the last four years, as cryptocurrencies — and Bitcoin in particular — became an essential part of mainstream news coverage. Still, some people might be tempted to take the chance, especially given the previous patterns exhibited around Bitcoin halvings.
Consequently, if history repeats itself and the Bitcoin price starts going up in April 2020, even more traders might start buying the asset out of a fear of missing out, thus stimulating the demand, and, ultimately, the price.
Please, give us your opinion in the comments.!!
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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.