EDUCATION: Moving Average Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Today we examine another one support line type - moving average support.
Definition
Moving average support line is one of the advanced types support lines. It based on price moving average for any period which can be chosen for every particular case. MA helps to define the trend direction at current moment. If the price closed above the MA for at least ten candlesticks in a row we can identify this situation as uptrend.
How to trade with MA support?
Because the uptrend is identified we cam use the MA and price crossing points as entry points. In our case, when (1), (2) and (3) occurs, the next points from (4) to breakpoint can be used to enter the position. In case of success we will see the price touched and bounced off the MA. In opposite, the price break the MA line down, but the stoploss usage can help to eliminate huge losses.
Summary
1)To identify the uptrend when the price closed above the MA 10 times in row
2)To entry the position when the price touched the MA
3)Fix the profit with it's bounce off the MA
4)Set the stoploss to eliminate the losses in case of sharp price decline
Btc-e
EDUCATION: Trend Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Yesterday we considered the simple support line. Today we continue to examine support types.
Definition
Trend support line occurs where the price is in the uptrend and is formed by the lows on the candlestick chart. Next to this line the price is likely to bounce off it because the demand/supply imbalance.
How to trade with trend support?
When we can draw line which connects 3 lows (1,2 and 3 points), the next lows which are lying on this line can be the properly entry points. Also we need to take a stop loss to eliminate the significant price decline effects. According to the chart this strategy would bring profit at points (4), (5), (6), (7) and (8). The first loss would be at the breakpoint (B), but the stoploss level reduce it.
Summary
1)To define the support line by three points
2)To enter the position next to the line
3)To fix profit in case of success
4)To fix a small loss with the stoploss setup in case of support breakout
4 Rules to Day Trading - Realistic Approach On How To Not LoseHello traders. So you are thinking of day trading as a career? Let's start off with the bad news: it's difficult. Good news? It's doable - if approached with the right mindset. This is a part of my risk management series that I believe many traders can benefit - new or advanced. Day trading involves buying an asset and reselling it for a profit the same day - or for swing traders, a few days. Many people turn to day trading because it’s rewarding when done correctly. But for the faint of heart, many fail to do so and give up - or lose their whole accounts. My job here is to explain to the general public that day trading is not realistic for the faint of heart; however, if you do your research, practice accordingly, day trading can lead to some serious gains.
1. Compare your expected returns
The first step in limiting your losses when day trading is figuring out the expected return on all the trades you’re considering. You can use the following formula to calculate the expected return as also shown above in the diagram
Once you have calculated the expected return on all of your upcoming trades, you can compare the results and choose the trades that offer the most opportunity for profit. Please refer to my previous post on how to calculate the risk reward ratio below this guide.
Manage Your Risk
Managing risk is incredibly important. The best way to limit your day trading losses is to manage individual trades. You should never risk more than 3-5% of your balance on one trade. People tend to go all in. Yes - it gives the maximum gains possible - but often leads to liquidations or a trap that you may never be able to get out! As an example, if you have $10,000 in your trading account, you never want to risk more than $300 on a single trade. By keeping this rule in mind, you know you’ll never lose everything if you happen to have a bad day in trading. More opportunities will come - I promise, especially if you keep this step in mind.
Create a Daily Stopping Point (Risk Reward Ratio (RRR))
Here, you must decide how much you can afford to risk each day. This is very straight forward, but often missed out by many traders, including me! You have a few ways to determine this stopping point. For example, you can plan for the day to stop a trade if you lose 3 percent of your account, or, if you have three losing trades in a row, or, if you lose the sum of your average daily profits. These are just three of my favorite strategies to use. Keep in mind that if you decide to create a stopping point based on your average profits, the amount you can afford to lose will increase over time as you improve your skills.
Use Stop-Loss Orders! (SUPER IMPORTANT)
This is probably one of the most important ones. Even if you don't follow any of the 4 steps above, you can still reduce your total blowout loss by having a stop loss in tact. With a stop-loss order, you can minimize losses by deciding on a specific price that doesn’t go below your tolerance for risk. If the price of your trade reaches the stop-loss, you know it’s time to exit. 99% of traders forget this.
I hope this post helps everyone out!
Please check out my whole risk management series below!
EDUCATION: Simple Support LineHello, dear subscribers!
Today we start our Educational series. We are going to public some elements of technical analysis every day.
Definition
The support level is the level which is likely not to be broken down by the price. It is a high probability of the bounce off this level. It occurs because when the price decreases, the demand is rising and the supply is decreasing. As a result the higher demand push the price up.
How to trade with support
We can get into the position on the support line level. For example, at the point (D) we already know that blue line is support (because of points (A) and (B). Also we have to use the stop loss level, if the price will substantially break this level down. If the price broke down the blue support (G), we can wait the yellow line price level to enter the position (3). It is also widely known that the price is likely to return back to the previous support (H)
Summary
1)To define several support levels
2)To get into position on the first one
3)To fix a profit in case of price bounce
4)To fix small stop loss in case of huge breakdown
5)To buy again at the lower support.
It is very effective strategy but there are a lot of cases, when support level definition is impossible.
4 Powerful Tips for Day TradersIn this video I go over 4 powerful trading tips ever trader needs to know!
The tips are simple and if followed can generaate success and profits and most importantly longevity in trading!
Quickly I also go over my active trade, GBPNZD sell.
Anyway, hope you like the video!
📚 Learn More 💰 Earn More with us: FLAG = Impulse + CorrectionFLAG = Impulse + Correction
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After a significant drop in Bitcoin price , the price is in a correction wave.
What makes the chart interesting today is that:
. Bitcoin is likely to challenge the 18042 ~ 18227 resistance area.
. A break above 18227 could push the pair to the 19487 area .
. A resistance rejection , however could lead to another retest of the lower supports.
Will the Bitcoin see a rejection from the resistance area or an upside breakout?
No one knows it! We have to wait and see!
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A Guide to Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) - How To Calculate and SetupHello Traders. Let me start off with a scenario that many - if not all has been through. Have you ever had a series of great trades, only to have one trade to burn your whole capital? It's probably everyone - and a guilty embarrassment that many do not want to admit. It's not bad - it's a learning process. I'm here to talk about how to effectively use stop losses. If you are not using stop losses - you are essentially gambling. You need to learn how to preserve your capital at best.
A stop loss is an absolutely vital tool allowing you to limit your losses when you are trying to increase your probabilities using technical analysis. In my opinion, calculated risk is never going to be 100% risk free; however, It is mandatory on every position if you want to keep your money safe (or safer, haha!). Using a stop loss is like an insurance policy. In case the trade is going wrong (which can most definitely happy), you can be sure that a large part of your capital will be safe (again, keyword being large).
Now, how do you place a stop loss? You are assuming that anyone can just use the stop loss tool and adjust the percentages and risk reward ratio to their likings, right? Wrong. You need to know how to place your stop via proper technical analysis, which is discussed below in a simple manner. Assuming you have a good probability set up, a stop loss allows you to sleep peacefully because a stop loss deletes the stress and allows you doing activities other than trading. You don’t need to monitor your trade every 10 minutes. The less you monitor your trade the less you risk to make mistakes.
Some people will say that stop loss decreases the winning ratio. This is also absolutely wrong. Again, it is ABSOLUTELY wrong. Many traders argue to get 90%-100% of winning trades.
How to place your stop loss:
Place your stop loss according to the market price level according to the suggested ratio of 2:1 as shown in the above diagram. Why 2:1? The RR ratio is the difference between the potential loss and the potential profit of your trade, according to your trade setup. You never want to take a trade if your risk/reward ratio is below 1. A RR of 2 and more is one of the key factors in order to become successful in trading. Imagine the insane performance it would be, if every trade you make had a RR of 2 with 80% of winning trades - that is phenomenal.
Also, I suggest that you never move your stop if the the trade goes wrong - I know many of you are also guilty of this. The only context allowing you moving your stop is if the market goes right in order to secure your profit (also known as, "moving up my stop loss in profit zones").
This is a part of the risk management series that I am creating. If interested, please check all of my great posts below!
Trade Safe.
X Force
The Most Recommended Timeframes to Trade On (Top Down Analysis)Hello traders. Here I would like to take my take on the best timeframes (personally) that I use to trade on. This can apply to all tradable assets - especially for cryptocurrencies.
Weekly Timeframe (1W): Usually one-week traders are known as longterm traders. Usually they are good at analyzing the market from a longer perspective and will usually have a portfolio that is heavily catered towards fundamentals, rather than technicals. They will hold trades from lasting from a week up to even months - and possibly up to years. The advantages to a weekly trader will be that you don't have to always watch the trade; however, it will take longer to realize profits - and that's okay by them. Many new traders tend to avoid this approach because it means longer periods of time before trades are realized. However, by many accounts, trading with a shorter-term (day trading) approach can be far more problematic to execute successfully, and it often takes traders considerably longer to develop their strategy.
One-day Timeframe (1D): These are also known as swing traders. These traders hold positions from days, up to weeks. The advantages for swing traders is that they are usually more geared towards longer term profits and is comfortable with holding a trade overnight. After the trend has been determined on the weekly chart (lower highs and lower lows, for example), traders can look to enter positions on the weekly chart in a variety of ways. Many traders look to utilize price action for determining the overall trend, but indicators can absolutely be utilized here as well.
1H - 4H Timeframes (1H, 4H): These traders are usually known as 'hybrid' intra-day, day, and even swing traders. These two timeframes are usually the best to use indicators as the provide quick data and more data to help learn the process of the larger scale timeframes. These two timeframes are the epitome of creating the larger picture. These traders usually understands the concept of how markets open and closes from a day-to-day perspective. They understand the exposures of 'fake-out' signals. These traders will usually realize profits or losses quickly. After a trader has gained comfort on the longer-term chart, they can then look to move slightly shorter in their approach and desired holding times. This can introduce more variability into the trader’s approach, so risk and money management should be addressed before moving down to shorter time frames.
The best time frame to trade an asset will vary depending on the trading strategy you employ to meet your specific goals. The diagram above shows the time frames used by different traders for trend identification and trade entries.
This is a part of my risk management series, so if you are interested in checking out my other posts, please check below!
📚 💰 Descending Triangle in ETHBTC - "Learn More Earn More" 📚 LEARN MORE
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Descending Triangle Definition:
An Descending Triangle is a type of triangle chart pattern that occurs when there is a support level and a slope of lower high .
It is defined by two lines:
. A horizontal support line running through valleys.
. A Downtrend line drawn through the peaks.
The lower highs indicate more sellers are gradually entering the market and selling pressure increases as price consolidates moving further towards the apex.
An Descending Triangle is classified as a continuation chart pattern.
If price can break through the support level, that level will now act as a resistance level.
Breakouts can also happen in both directions. Statistically, downward breakouts are more likely to occur, but upward ones seem to be more reliable.
In most cases, the sellers will win this battle and the price will break out past the support. But Sometimes the support level is too strong, and there is simply not enough selling power to push it through. Therefore you should be ready for movement in EITHER direction.
ENTRY:
We would set an entry order bellow the support line and above the slope of the lower highs.
TARGET:
Target is approximately the same distance as the height of the triangle formation.
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Is LO in? Here's another stat. to help work it out.Here is another potential way using my 3 MACD's to confirm if LO is in. MACD line & Signal line must be <0. Then take first 3 all rising Histograms <0. Box their price range in blue. Then wait for first single collumn of all Histograms >0. CAVEAT: Data from 8th Nov. Only. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
BITCOIN Minimum Target: $36000 - Full ExplanationGood morning traders! We hope you are having a beautiful day.
🔸Today we want to show you our vision of bitcoin in the short-medium term and explain why we see it extremely bullish.
- Speaking a bit of the context and history, we can see that bitcoin hits all-time highs in late 2017, reaching almost $20,000. After this, there came an abrupt decline that found its lows around $ 3000. From there, the upward movement has been resumed.
- During this year, this crypto has made almost a 200% bullish movement.
- Analyzing the behavior of the chart, we see that it has potential to be a Cup and Handle movement pattern.
🔸Now we go with a little of theory:
- The cup and handle pattern implies a movement in the price that makes a high, a decline correcting movement, a consolidation at lows, and then the subsequent upward recovery. You can clearly see the transition from lower lows and highs to higher lows and highs. After this, it needs a retest of the previous highs (double top pattern), and for a bullish corrective move.
🔸Now, does this imply that bitcoin is going to breakout and make an explosive bullish move imminently?
- We do not know, but according to the characteristics of this pattern, no.
- What we should expect is a retest of the Resistance zone (all-time highs), and then a corrective move (flag, triangle, pennant, etc.).
Once formed, the idea is to trade the breakout.
- The MINIMUM target of the movement is calculated by measuring the distance between the minimum of the range and the maximum.
- This calculation gives us a distance of $16500-$16600, which, projecting it upwards, gives us an approximate target of $36000.
Complete Guide to Bitcoin Dominance & Alt Season CyclesHello traders. Here I will be showing a simple diagram of the whole Bitcoin dominance effect towards Bitcoin and Alt coins. The diagram is extremely simplified so that anyone can refer to this chart in the future. Many people have a hard time when an alt season starts; however, understanding the few simple rules of Bitcoin dominance can help you know whether you are in a bull market or not!
In the above diagram, I am showing the complete relationship between BTC Dominance (BTC.D), Bitcoin's price, and Altcoin's price. You can refer to the chart above and use it to your advantage on positioning, timing, and risk management without the whole FOMO ordeal.
So, what is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)? Bitcoin dominance is the percentage that measures Bitcoin’s share of the WHOLE cryptocurrency market capitalization measured in percentages. It is not a 100% perfect metric to use, but it helps to analyze the macro-market since many people like to refer to it - so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is what usually happens if everyone starts to use it. We can observe the total capital (money) flowing between alts and BTC with this chart and make some conclusions about the market’s current state.
The chart above is showing that in most cases you’ll want to be in Bitcoin when Bitcoin Dominance is in an uptrend, and then be in alts when the Bitcoin Dominance is in a downtrend. We are witnessing that right now. When BTC and BTC.D rises, we psychologically assume that we want to be in Bitcoin, which then leads to a decrease in the alt coin market. For those who are interested in more risk management strategies, please look at the links below!
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X Force
Why Many Continue to "Miss the Train" - Trading 101Hello Traders. Thank you so much for the overwhelming support on the last post - we reached over 1200 likes - a new record and the best post of the month on Tradingview. Here I would like to go over why we all continue to fail buying the dips time after time from a market psychology perspective. This is a big problem for many of the traders, and we are all guilty of it. Let's take a moment to discuss all of the phases as shown in the chart above.
1. Your initial signal is here but you don't take it - because you are waiting for a second confirmation,
2. You wait for a retracement so you can enter into a trade, but doesn't happen,
3. Retracement comes along at the top, but you are thinking that you have already missed the big move,
4. You long at the breakout high, then the market dumps to support, and you think that the top is already in, so you sell,
5. Then it consolidates, then pumps. Price continues up and you start panicking that your approach was wrong.
You are now either positionless or have waited too long after a 300% rally. The most important part of this approach is that you must have an idea of how Bitcoin has behaved over the past years. I have made an extremely detailed plan on where we are on the timeline - which may help with many investor's buying decision:
In this post above, I show that Bitcoin is currently trading in a new bull run. Retracements occur, and it's important to position yourself within the correct timeline. As you can see, with the right indicators, we can position ourself even if we feel that we "missed the train" - as long as you know and can accept we are in a new bull run. Another important aspect is understanding the concepts of accumulation. Accumulations may either lead to a dump or pump, but if you follow the correct overall trend, we can easily see that we were accumulating for the upside.
It's all about positioning! This is a part of my risk management series so please make sure to look at all of the related posts for risk management.
Trade Safe.
X Force
Head and Shoulders - "Learn More Earn More" with usInverted Head and Shoulders Definition:
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a Valley (left shoulder), followed by a Lower Valley (head), and then another Higher Valley (right shoulder).
A “ Neckline ” is drawn by connecting the highest points of the two Peaks. Neckline resistance does not need to be strictly horizontal.
. This illustrates that the downward trend is coming to an end .
. When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in an downtrend, it signifies a major reversal .
. The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline resistance .
In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern.
How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
ENTRY:
we put an entry order below the neckline.
TARGET:
We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline.
This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
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Head and Shoulders - "Learn More Earn More" with usInverted Head and Shoulders Definition:
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a Valley (left shoulder), followed by a Lower Valley (head), and then another Higher Valley (right shoulder).
A “ Neckline ” is drawn by connecting the highest points of the two Peaks. Neckline resistance does not need to be strictly horizontal.
. This illustrates that the downward trend is coming to an end .
. When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in an downtrend, it signifies a major reversal .
. The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline resistance .
In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern.
How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
ENTRY:
we put an entry order below the neckline.
TARGET:
We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline.
This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
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Why You Should Never 'HODL' Your Positions Up To A Certain PointHello Traders.
Here I give a friendly reminder to all beginners and advanced traders that holding (hodl'ing) your position is not ideal up to a certain point. The math of percentages shows that as losses get larger (compound interest), the return necessary to recover to break-even increases at a much faster rate. A loss of 10 percent necessitates an 11 percent gain to recover - and that is where it goes all downhill. Increase that loss to 20 percent and it takes a 25 percent gain to get back to break-even. A 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent gain to recover and an 80 percent loss necessitates 400 percent in gains to get back to where the investment value started.
Investors who get hit by a bear market need to be aware that it will take a while to recover, but the math of compounding returns will help the cause. Consider a bear market with a 30 percent drop in value, down to 70 percent of what the stock portfolio was worth. A 10 percent gain returns the portfolio to 77 percent. The next 10 percent recovers to 84.7 percent. Two more 10 percent gain years put the portfolio back to 102.5 percent of the value before the drop. So a 30 percent drop necessitates a 42 percent recovery, but 10 percent a year compounded for four years puts the account back into profitable territory. I will be doing a second part to this post on the idea of "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING" (DCA).
What the math of stock market losses shows best is that investors need to protect themselves against big losses as shown in the diagram above. Mental or limit based stop-loss orders to sell stocks or cryptocurrencies are there for a reason. When a certain loss level is reached, it will pay off big if the market is moving into bear market territory. Investors sometimes have trouble selling stock they like at a loss, but they will like the stock or cryptocurrency if it can be bought back at a lower price.
If you are interested in how to create the perfect trading plan, please see my previous post here:
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X Force
Bitcoin's Two Year Forecast - "When Should I Buy Bitcoin?"As Biden suggested, "It is a time for healing." - I believe it is absolutely true for a time of healing in all aspects of the world, including Bitcoin.
What is the Stock to flow? (about this indicator)
As suggested by the creator of this indicator, 'PlanB' :
" SF = stock / flow . Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserve. Flow is the yearly production."
In simple terms:
Stock = How many Bitcoins are currently in circulation
Flow = How many Bitcoins are created each year
----------
Here I would like to explain the observations based on my own - these are the FIVE main phases of price action:
1. Price Halving Event
2. Price Discovery Phase
3. Price Continuity
4. Price Explosion / Blowoff Top
5. Price Maturity
Without getting too much into the mathematical details and formulas on how this indicator was created, this is a perfect indicator, in my opinion, to show the overall observation of where Bitcoin stands from a visualized perspective, where it shows that Bitcoin can withstand anything in any certain period of time. The first and foremost, Bitcoin has not only have we survived the harshest conditions of the market for 2020 (and 2018 alike), Bitcoin's fundamentals are getting incredibly stronger by the day; furthermore, Bitcoin is now collectively seen as a form of investment tool and regarded by many as one of the best returning assets of the decade. I believe the next decade is yet to offer more when the fundamentals of Bitcoin is much clearer and clears up the issue of scalability and overall issues with price maturity.
The most important aspect of this chart is to find where you can start investing Bitcoin . This answers the million dollar question of, "When can I buy Bitcoin?" The answer is NOW, according to this indicator. Why and based on what evidence? First, history is not indicative of the present price action, however, it does certainly rhyme with it. We can note that with each consecutive rise, it was usually after the halving events of Bitcoin . As we are now approaching into 2021, we are now putting our first step into the uncharted territory of new price discovery .
Despite the heightened level of volatility in the market, I believe it's important to emphasize that long term investors are unlikely to be fazed by the recent drop - especially after the 2020 events. The current short-term holder activity is reminiscent of previous bull trends, and if we are able to survive 2020, how can we not survive 2021-2022. As such, if BTC recovers strongly from the recent drop, the chances of a rally continuation could increase.
What will you do?
We hope that you are able to be disciplined this time and learn from the past mistakes of every year, and it is increasingly showing that we are well on our way to new uncharted territories of ATH .
Learning to trade the Head And Shoulders Pattern with Bitcoin.The Head & Shoulders Pattern & Inverse Head & Shoulders Patterns are quite common on Bitcoin and have had great results on the higher timeframe charts.
Here are the main characteristics:
• VOLUME MIMICS PATTERN
• 3 PEAKS, LEFT & RIGHT SIMILAR HEIGHT
• TRIANGULAR IN APPEARANCE
• FOUND AFTER UPTREND
• HIGH SUCCESS RATE
• CAN BE SLANTED
Price forms 3 distinct peaks after a strong uptrend, the left and right peak should have a similar height (shoulders), the middle peak (head) has to be the highest or this can not be a HS pattern. They should seem triangular in appearance but as long as it fits the main characteristics can still be a valid pattern.
The right shoulder should form a lower high which is a early sign of trend change, this is entry A, with entry B being the bearish retest of of the “neckline” (marked on chart #2). The idea is to gain an early entry on the pattern at point A to maximise profits and reduce risk. Once price moves above the middle "peak" it is likely that the pattern is not valid anymore so this allows us to get a tight stop loss upon entry. We measure the height of the pattern and add it to the breakout level for a maximum possible price target.
Volume should also paint the same pattern with the 3 peaks, strong volume on breakout increases success rate.
In this example on Bitcoin earlier this year it played out perfectly, hitting target, when having another great short opportunity on the Bearish Retest. A bearish retest is just a Support & Resistance flip off the pattern breakout level.
After the pattern played out we also saw one more great opportunity with General Pattern failure.
What is General Pattern Failure?
General Pattern Failure occurs when a chart pattern breaks out, fails to hit target, quickly reverses then rejects off that same breakout level back inside the pattern continuing in the opposite direction of the breakout.
Pictured above in the original post is a normal breakout on a Head And Shoulders Pattern while the lower example shows General Pattern Failure on the same pattern. Note how the first example has a Bearish Retest (B) while the second example is coming back inside that area and finding support for a potential long setup.
(The below chart is the above example continued)
General pattern failure can also be considered a Liquidity Grab or can be referred to as a “Fake Out” also when it happens more rapidly after the original pattern breakout.
Learning to trade patterns such as these can provide great opportunities if you understand price action and how to identify the key areas of the pattern that other traders and investors may be focusing on too, these areas become important psychological levels on the chart.