New Monthly High by end of month You decide NOT ADVICE DYOREnclose copy of my previous posting of this chart - Daily version, with an extended 200 MA. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
Btc-e
DEFENDING ALTSEASON - SHITCOIN MANIFESTOIn this post I will explain why there will be another alt season and alts will perform well at some point against Bitcoin.
1. Shitcoins piggy back on Bitcoin's success. For as long as Bitcoin is doing well, people will try to find the next Bitcoin. Many newcomers will feel they missed the boat or they will simply believe Bitcoin is outdated tech. Most people don't understand what Bitcoin is about, so the moment someone pitches to them Bitcoin 2.0 / 3.0 etc they start believing him. This is mainly based on greed as they think the'll get much better returns by betting on these shitcoins. At the same time whales and everyone here, wants to either increase their Bitcoin stash or USD stash in one way or another... and altcoins are on of the best ways to do so. People can't easily manipulate Bitcoin that is so big and liquid, but they can easily manipulate shitcoins. This is still the wild west! People can form groups to pump and dump these little shits, so they will keep on doing it. Doesn't matter who these people are or who these people will be, for as long as it possible for somebody to do it.
Remember that maximum opportunity comes at the point of maximum pain, not before that. Getting a 10-20-30x isn't easy as you have to get in when everyone else wants to get out. You have to be a contrarian and ready to feel pain for some time before you get the big returns. Do you think that all the people that made money in before haven't put or won't put some money back in? When something is down 90-99%, that means that the people that sold high can buy a lot more than what they had for much less, while they don't really feel pressure to sell if it goes up or down a bit as they have already made good money. That's part of the reason these cycles in all markets and not just crypto. Not everyone has lost money and not everyone has lost faith forever.
On the other hand it is funny to see people say that nobody could had seen this massive collapse coming. Since mid April I was calling for Bitcoin dominance to 70-77% and for now I am not convinced alts have bottomed. To me their bubble still hasn't completely popped yet and I find it amazing how altcoins are still holding this well. Notice however that I believe we are very close to the bottom... Based on several time analysis I've done and have put it on twitter both price wise and time wise we are getting there. The bottom should have already come and some other analysis says we are 50-120 days away. At the moment I can't see them dropping more than 25-50% from here, so maybe waiting for them to go lower is me being greedy, but I'd like to see them reclaim certain levels before I get in.
*Fun fact: Some alts topped in late 2013 - early 2014 and it took them 1100-1200 days to bottom. Just think about that...
2. Fundamentals in the space are complicated and there is no real model to evaluate shitcoins as an asset class. Simplistic models and explanations don't work and should be instantly dismissed. Nothing is as simple as finding one narrative and sticking with it. What I know for sure though is that shitcoins in 2012-2017 had way worse fundamentals in all aspects. Less exchanges, shady exchanges, no funding, worse technology, more pure scams, no regulatory clarity and no fiat on ramps. However they all pumped to insane highs... if you don't believe me go have a look at how several coins survived 2012-2017 on CoinMarketCap, check how much they had dropped, for how long they were falling and despite all that so many of them pumped more than 40x from their bottoms in a 2-3 months. Seriously zoom in and try to imagine how these people felt like.
I was in the Bitshares community for quite some time in 2016. That thing was going down forever... Seriously I thought it was dead. As I was growing and I was studying the technicals of Bitcoin, Bitshares and various other projects, I started realizing how flawed alts really were. The claims they were making were insane, unsubstantiated and relied on attracting money to the project. At that time the serial scammer Daniel Larimer left the project, people were having constant fights and all the proposals for improvements were awful. The Chinese community was blocking funding for several proposals and the whole thing was in death spiral. Yet it survived and had one of the biggest bubbles in Q2 2017.
Most people that claim shitcoins are dead haven't been there and haven't experienced what several of us have. Looking at charts and fundamentals along is irrelevant. If you don't get the feeling, if you don't see things happening live... You will never understand. Experience can't be substituted with knowledge. I've made and lost money on shitcoins and ICOs, and my biggest mistake was being emotional and saying that: I DON'T INVEST IN SCAMS, THESE PEOPLE ARE FRAUDS, i DON'T WANT TO MAKE MONEY LIKE THIS. I WILL ONLY TRADE BITCOIN AND THAT'S IT. THE CLAIMS THEY ARE MAKING ARE INSANE, THESE PEOPLE ARE JUST GREEDY LIARS, NOBODY WILL BELIEVE THEM! THESE CHAINS WILL BE ATTACKED AND GET WRECKED. This was literally how I was thinking and then they all took off. I seriously got suicidal at the time as people around me where making money off scams and I wasn't. May and June were awful... Every morning I'd wake up with Bitcoin going up and I wanted to die because I missed one of the biggest opportunities of our lifetime. Imagine how you'd feel looking at something going up and up, 50-100-200x in BTC terms from the bottom. Now why would you wanna feel that again? Personally I don't plan to feel this way.
3. Now let's look at some of the fundamentals of shitcoins compared to normal companies: Shitcoins don't have to pay taxes, they don't have specific investors whom they have to satisfy immediately, they can't go bankrupt, they don't have to do buybacks, they could technically survive without employees (Dogecoin), they can print and they have printed their own money which they can use to *bribe* people and they have the incentive to pump the price to make more money from the money they have printed (Ripple). Most aren't promising something right now, but something in the future. They claim they are building the infrastructure and technically this isn't false. They can cut down costs and keep on operating to an extend, until they they both run out of money and they keep getting delisted from exchanges. What they have that Bitcoin doesn't is money for advertising and insane bag holders that will shill their shitcoins to anyone just so that they can be able to get their money back.
It has to be understood that there will be more delistings and there will be several alts that will never recover. Having an alt season doesn't mean that everything goes up... Even before 2018 there were many shitcoins that died and are not around anymore. I estimate that until now there have been about more than 3000 altcoins, tokens, ICOs, projects that have died and more than half of the coins on Coinmarketcap are essentially dead or simply listed only on scammy illiquid exchanges that nobody uses.
You might think this is bad, but in my opinion it isn't. It is a good thing for the rest of the coins, not bad. The more useless and less liquid alts give their place to new, more 'interesting' assets, the bigger the potential they will have for big pumps. Initially everyone feels the pain as everything is interconnected in this space (as people hold several shitcoins along with Bitcoin), however once more awfully managed / scammy / illiquid projects are gone, the more money can be focused on 'good' shitcoins. The reality is that not everything will pump and the average Bitcoin returns will not be as high as 2017. Larger market caps, more coins now and more coming in, most highly inflationary, fractured liquidity on exchanges, Bitcoin being more scarce, the success of derivatives on Bitcoin and the current infrastructure for institutional investors favoring Bitcoin alone, all mean that alts won't give such great returns and will most likely never reach their old highs again. Yet this doesn't mean they are dead either for reasons I will explain below.
4. The lower alts go the more smart money and whales can buy while there are less sellers. Altcoins can create short term narratives that can fuel demand, they can give incentives for people to hold them (BNB) and staking is a new component that in my opinion will play an instrumental role in this new bull run. The more and more people hold and stake long term, the less supply there is on exchanges making pumps easier as there are less sellers. The current extremely low yield environment globally will make people chase both returns and yields and this is making altcoins extremely attractive. Bitcoin doesn't offer extra returns by holding it, altcoins do. Yes they are scammy and PoS is trash, but most people don't get why.
With most other assets being already too high, assets that are down significantly are extremely attractive. There are bubbles and antibubbles. Altcoins are an antibubble while real estate for example is a bubble in many places. Buying assets with inherently high risk at extremely low valuations helps you increase your potential returns substantially. The risk remains the same, but risk to reward x probabilities of success is the formula every investor should look at before making decisitions.
It has to be noted that most traditional investors don't believe in Bitcoin, but in Blockchain and Cryptocurrency. Not only that, but their goal is to maximize returns for themselves or their customers, so they are ready to buy anything. They don't care about feelings, revolutions and at a time where making money is really really hard altcoins will most likely be an oasis for them. Most people can't distinguish between Bitcoin and Shitcoins, so people in this space need to separate themselves from the masses. What you know isn't what the market knows, and you need to trade based on both.That's how I fucked up in early 2017, as I thought that the market knew what I knew. This means: manage risk very well, study your picks well, always use TA to get in and out and don't marry your bags.
What I find interesting is how people think Coinbase is irrelevant and that there will be no institutional money in shitcoins. Coinbase is extremely important as it holds ~5% of all Bitcoins and is one of the most important fiat gateways. Them listing new shitcoins is very important and Kraken has been following slowly too. What do you think people will do when Bitcoin goes up a lot and they also see these other things next to it go up even more? They will diversify of course...
Something that can't go unnoticed is how most big exchanges have been building infrastructure for big players. Creating OTC desks, custodial solutions, indices and even normal fiat on ramps / stablecoins. These aren't just for Bitcoin, but for shitcoins too. It is important to note that none of these existed in before 2018 for shitcoins. Exchanges have a much larger incentive that anyone else to make these things pump and succeed. The higher they go, the more people trade on their platform, the more money they make. These markets run on incentives and exchanges are the most powerful players off all in this ecosystem. A few years ago all shitcoins traded only against Bitcoin on a few illiquid exchanges, but now there are fiat pairs, altcoin pairs, more bitcoin pairs and more established shitcoin exchanges. Not relying 100% of Bitcoin or Poloniex is really important.
6. One of my followers mentioned something about current investors being wiser and avoiding altcoins, which I think is completely irrelevant for several reasons.
First of all most of them are already burned out and they don't have much money to put in. Most retail investors in the space are cumulatively worth ~50-100B which in the grand scheme of things is nothing. I am seeing this asset class growing to 20-30T before alts have their final bubble. I can't see why we can't get to the size of the Dot Com x5. Here we are reinventing money, there is a lot more fiat now than back then (thanks Central Banks), it is global, it is easily accessible and it has come at a time where fiat money is dying. No better place to have a mega bubble. So what matters more than anything is new investors coming in and with deeper pockets. The real 'flippening' is when old investors capitulate and new investors, smart money and whales take over. If you haven't noticed already, lots of people from before 2017 are gone because they lost pretty much most of their money or they are simply holding Bitcoin. That's why you don't hear from many people from back then. Burned investors usually don't come back until much later and usually near the top, like all the people that got burned in 2017-2019.
The reality is that most people here are doing this to make more money and don't really know what is going on here. Be that Bitcoin or altcoins... Even old investors will eventually start buying them once they start trending. These things trend for a while (be that up or down), and that's why they have these constant cycles. Study the cycles and understand why they occur. Understand why you shouldn't be betting on what is the biggest sin in trading: *this time is different*. This doesn't mean that you should fool yourself and see them as long term investments. Once you do your homework you will understand how this game is being played.
At the bottom smart money gets in (smart traders, whales, founders etc) and then they start pumping the shit out of these coins. Then retail money starts following and you get a bubble. This whole thing is about supply demand imbalances, it is all about strong hands taking over and weak hands slowly getting getting shaken out completely. 'Pumpers' need to do specific things to take over and pump the price to a level that they have sufficient liquidity to exit. So first they need a good entry and then they need a good exit as they can't keep pumping shit forever or they'll start losing money. 90% of the people don't like buying things that go down, but they like buying things that go up and this will never change. Most old investors might be able to avoid being the fool at the top, but this doesn't mean that there will be no new entrants.
7. Finally let's get into market caps, potential valuations and how Bitcoin fits in. I'd like to start by saying that shitcoins are very illiquid and these market caps are not real. What matters most is liquidity and who controls the supply. For a shitcoin to go from 10M to 1B you don't need to put 1B in. If you bought most of the supply for 5-10M during depression/capitulation, then with 50-100M you can take that asset to 1B. These market caps are an illusion that will eventually face reality and come crashing down. Markets are irrational most of the time and on the long run they oscillating around a mean/fair/rational valuation. We have seen such things again and again on exchanges like Huobi, where the worst of the worst shitcoins have pulled 10-60x over the last year. 1-10M USD shitcoins being in accumulation for several months, then pumping like crazy and then coming down like crazy
Part of the reason why alt seasons last 1-3 months and the down trends much longer, is because people need to chase the market, they must not have enough time to think, they must feel urge to FOMO and then only time and despair can wash them out for a new cycle to begin. When the price go up it doesn't mean that this money has come in the market. All it means is that there is an illusion of wealth being created and the new money that comes in near the top is going straight into the pockets of the smart money. The people that buy afterwards are playing a game of hot potato that is essentially redistributing the losses that don't occur at the bottom, but at the top.
During the main phase of the Bitcoin bull run, alts are being used to accumulate more Bitcoin and at the end to accumulate more USD. They serve as an exit for big players. By initially pumping Bitcoin you force people to chase Bitcoin and dump their altcoins, making it a lot easier for you to buy them cheaply. That's why after an altseason Bitcoin is going up stronger and alts go down hard. Bitcoin becomes more scarce and accumulated by strong hands, whereas alts are held by weak hands. So to me smart money either already has or will soon start accumulating altcoins. Big players can't simply buy the top or the bottom, so they always need some time to enter and exit positions, while they might even be sitting on big losses while they are trying to build their position.
My initial idea was that we'd first see new ATHs and a big increase in Bitcoin like we did in early and late 2017, but with alts bleeding so much this doesn't seem like a bad place for big boys to enter. They most likely will want to accumulate Bitcoin before the 2020 halving and this doesn't seem like a bad place to do so. We don't have much data on pre-halving alt seasons, but getting an alt season like the one in early 2016 seems pretty logical to me.
A little about my trade-11 (Bitcoin-"smart or beautiful"?:-))I continue to talk about my trading principles.
Bitcoin has come to a head. Don't let your emotions dictate yourEvery time the market to change the plate before and after, is the most prone to make mistakes, many people are not good because of psychological quality, false start, resulting in unnecessary losses, so trading is not only competitive technology, more is to see the psychological quality. As with Texas hold 'em, if you can play a bad hand to the end and win, it's always a mental game.
We saw recently bitmex and okex contract position again, yesterday the bitmex XBT sustainable position reached a $1.04 billion contract, this is again approaching the peak value of the first three, I think there must be more empty Armageddon, but just right at the top of the 2 hours appeared deviation, remember I have said before, the first three are at the top of the 2 hours after departure from the formation of the head, my first feeling is to note here, so at the top of the community have prompt you 2 hours, attention should be paid to hedge, do much to stop. I think this is the value of our community, defense is always the best protection.
So what's next? I would like to say that every time you know the answer after the market is out, we do not have an eye, so making mistakes is the norm, but the key to trading is not that you do not make mistakes, but after making mistakes to make up. In general, one of the most common mistakes you make is to correct your mistakes as soon as you find them. This habit is not entirely unreasonable, but it is often impulsive, so there is a great chance of making a second mistake.
In this case, my advice is don't error correction, but a look at our judgment of what went wrong, if not find the problem after combing, it will, in turn, to go to the market, whether there is the possibility of cheat line (premise is you have the correct transaction logic, trade in the past business strategy winning percentage is higher).
If you stop a loss after a big drop, it may be on the floor, so impulse is the devil at this time, to see what will be the next step, then operate, this is the correct logic.
Back to the current trend, we see the previous three peaks, all caused by the 2-hour top deviation, the contract position is also long short at the high level to begin to unwind, so the possibility of forming a head here is still very high, but can we short here? Should trapped bulls stop their losses?
my advice is, take a look at today's rally, if you don't get on the daily K line of ma6, it is a sign of departure, but more importantly, the trend of macd, if a bearish trend is formed, you must leave the market. As a contract, the daily line of macd cross is the opportunity to short, or else there may be a rush to short the possibility of being cheated.
Signal set up. See previous posts how to play the statsDon't have time to post all details on chart for now. See previous posts what I'd normally add. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Bitcoin: The end of an EraNot many are able to think long term and realize this, but the cryptocurrency markets have already topped.
With summer ending soon, the next 50% price cut might be only a few weeks away.
Good news! I was (finally) able to verify and unfreeze an account with a crypto exchange and cashed out most of my money out of this MLM scheme.
Now, I have no skin in the game. This means no conflit of interest. I may have been biased in the past (such as when my winning short at 4k was a loser because of Bitmex funding and I posted short ideas even thought I knew - and said it - the price would go up and formed what I called in 2018 a 6 month to 1 year bull market within a larger secular bear market).
A few weeks only after US president and several congressmen and white house members publicly announced they have no love for Bitcoin and crypto, as well as French finance politicians (including the president of the G8), Europe central bank, and a few months after the NYAG started fighting the Tether scam, and a congressman (rep. Sherman), and we learned that North Korea used crypto to finance nuclear weapons, catch your breath :p, the white house has published 2 advisories where they explain that Bitcoin has been massively used to buy foreign drugs "precursor chemicals or completely synthesized narcotics primarily sourced from China", China with which they are at war with (trade & political war).
The white house is officially asking financial institutions (the advisories were sent to several financial institutions and digital payments companies) to collect crypto data.
But it does not end here. Even if criminals do not rush to panic sell before companies involved in crypto start watching them very closely, the price of Bitcoin is not safe yet.
Steven Mnuchin, of the U.S Department of Treasury, stated that the authority could ultimately prevent Bitcoin from becoming an “equivalent of Swiss-numbered bank accounts.”. In layman terms this means Bitcoin dies.
Sources: Start here
www.whitehouse.gov
Also, media/search engines.
Bitcoin now only thing left going: The ever so praised mighty "halving".
I believe it very possible that the price of Bitcoin remains above $3000 until this halving that every one is waiting for.
And after this, BTC is done for.
On top of that let's not forget that japan casinos are opening in mid 2020. And maybe more to come (online casinos?).
Japan represents 20% of the world financial wealth/investing power (while the USA have 25% and europe 30%).
Let me remind you how 2017 raging bull market started:
It works both ways!
Also, more generally, the entirety of BTC existance happened during a massive economical bull market.
And now the world stock markets are at levels unseen since 1929. Income inequality is even greater than 1920s 1930s.
Socialism is on the rise. Extreme right too. Bonds rates in the world are negative for the first time in history.
We are heading towards a great depression. People DO NOT speculate on crazy 50% a day move markets in these times.
Especially the rich - which concentrate 90% of the world wealth - they got rich by being careful and "cheap".
It is hilarous to me that "crypto believers" that know the rich for being the most cheap people on the planet, also believe they will suddenly go wild and buy cryptos.
I would also like to bring your attention to those charts (wall street cheat sheet on 2 timeframes - this is also how 2014 & 2018 behaved):
The sentiment at the top of this 2019 bubble was the exact same as the 2013 top one, and the same as the 2017 one.
Most big crypto advocates are blatant sociopaths. They have a history of lying and only caring about themselves. Every one knows about it.
And yet, BTC investors all drunk the Kool-Aid. Because they were promised immense riches and greed took over.
There are 2 kinds of people:
- Lottery ticket enthusiasts that fantacize about how much they could make and what they would buy with that money.
- Those that can take a step back and look objectively at the facts and the charts, and respect the views of experts with decades of experience and great track records.
Just watch how every one is absolutely convinced without the shadow of a doubt the worse is behind them, and how wrong time will prove they were.
Can BTC go back to 14k? Yes. But in the next 2 to 3 years will BTC be priced in the thousands or even more? NO.
Don't be a fool. The end of BTC is close.
BITCOIN VS GOLDI am seeing divergence in GOLD and BTC. BTC seller pressure and GOLD buying...people are "unsure" in the economy as to what is happening, they don't even want to think about elections, brexit stuff is still happening, JPY yen is getting stronger and BTC has corrected almost 50% this year..Asia holds most of BTC so as it climbs so does Yen alongside trade wars with the US. Lots of movement happening. Trump fuds dollar "too strong" as though it weakens and we keep pushing upward to try to make a new high before the value actually falls here later on....Play it safe everyone ^_^
Yellow Line is Gold...I like seeing when both gold and btc line up and move together...I will expect GOLD to fall and BTC to rise after 2021 opposite of each other for awhile. I want to see both move in the same direction again here in a few months probably closer to Christmas time.
Gold chart is high..dont buy high lol...just know it has been rising as BTC has been correcting. That is all this idea is for observing. Thanks everyone!
Where BTC goes next? Market doesn't know yet...
hey traders,
very interesting market sentiment on BTC.
currently the market is approaching a key level of support,
and reaction on this level will most-likely determine Bitcoin's future direction.
for now, be focused on the narrow support area between 9000 and 9500.
if bears break and close below it, I will expect bearish continuation to lower structure levels
with initial target 7500
if bulls break and close below the falling vertical resistance,
I will expect bullish impulse to 11000
good luck!
BTC.D And ETHBTC Triangles Are Supportive For BITCOIN!Hello traders!
Today we will talk about Bitcoin and its dominance!
Well, as you know BTC Dominance is in the sharp rise and looking at the current wave structure, it doesn't look like it's already topped yet!
A potential continuation triangle formation can be also seen in the ETHBTC chart, which means that BTC is still leading!
So, in our opinion, based on many more evidences we shared with our members, we believe that BTCUSD should be supportive here and it could easily remain in uptrend, ideally within a big bullish triangle pattern.
That being said, as long as BTCUSD is trading above strong 9500 support level, we think that there's room for more upside, so don't fall in love with bears just yet!
Be humble and trade smart!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
This rising wedge played out perfectly!This rising wedge played out perfectly, came back to the exact starting point on the 4h.
Triangle sorting is the most important form of bitcoinIn bitcoin trading, many chart forms are applied, such as double bottom, double top, head and shoulder bottom, triangle, etc. The most important one belongs to triangle sorting.
I think a lot of people remember last November's crash.
At that time, bitcoin was in a large convergence triangle, which failed to break upward several times and was well supported in the trend line below. However, in the end, in November, with the help of bad news, it broke through the defense line of bulls, which also caused tens of millions of single burst positions.
At that time, I was still doing the column of gold disk in golden finance. I remember that the triangle arrangement lasted for several months, and I also mentioned the trend of triangle arrangement many times in my analysis. On November 14, I left an analysis on the late review of golden plate:
"The last show we see shares, below is the last 4 months BTC graph, we see a high drop in turn, low in turn push up form, currently below the trend line is coming to near $6100, this is the last line of defense, bulls fell below what are the consequences of everyone is very clear, here don't talk nonsense, if lost, should look down 300-500 dollars is a big probability, so we'd better prepare for the worst, appear at least to know how to deal with after a, rather than a dozen not ready to battle."
Night and day, short launched an offensive, sell in the $6100, large Numbers of quantitative trading, activate the eventually brought in 3000 dollars down, this is another story, but in front of the breakthrough, the reason why I mention everybody to pay attention to, make the worst plan, is based on the strength of the breakthrough of the triangle is very large, devastating the conclusions.
Therefore, in the history of bitcoin, triangle sorting is a very important form, far more important than double bottom, double head, head and shoulder top. You can also pay more attention to it in the future analysis.
As for the current trend, the triangle arrangement, has entered the end, regardless of which direction to break, any prediction is not as safe as the execution of the right. Waiting for a breakthrough and then following up was my strategy, and it still works.
Strategy, if you do not break the trend line up and down, do not rush to operate. Once the breakthrough, will form the resultant force, that time must take advantage of the situation.
If you break the trend line up, which may be the beginning of the main uptrend at the weekly level, then the space behind it may be more than $20,000, but breaking down will also be a huge killer, maybe $6,500 soon.
So I advise everyone to be cautious and not to give cannon fodder to the crops.
On Oct. 13, I made three COINS in the TV line, has highlighted a triangle shape response: "gave 3 line, you must keep in mind that this is an important clue to influence future market movements, the bottom of the support line to form the triangle to the bottom of the $6000 is low, the attachment is the support of the day before yesterday, and $5743 is their lows, the bottom of the two lines is long, cannot be broken; The top pressure is $6,800 to $7,200.
Tip: don't break $6,000, go long and break a stop."
3 RULES WHALES DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW BEFORE DAY TRADING BITCOINWelcome back everybody,
Thanks for the 587 likes on my previous video. I hope i can help you out in this video as much as i possibly can as well.
In this video, we have talked about 3 RULES THAT YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE DAY TRADING BITCOIN.
The first rule is HAVING A TRADING PLAN . It is the most important one of all. If you don't have a plan, you will simply be eaten by Megalodons (Rational Investors/Traders). The plan must have trading setups (specific patterns on indicators or price/volume action, network data indicators such as Unique wallet addresses, or fundamental news like halving events, government policies). These setups will be your why to buy or sell. The trading plan should also have how much are you willing to risk and how you will manage this risk (stops/targets) This risk/reward ratio that you want to follow needs to be at least two. It can be smaller than two depending on what is your percent profitability with your trading setups.
The second rule is OBEYING YOUR PLAN . You always need to obey the plan to completely remove any and all emotions. This is another important rule because we are all emotional beings. We need to make sure how we will completely remove our emotions while trading or investing. Are you going to meditate before you start trading and have a check list before you put any trades? Are you going go heavy on the coffee 5 days a week to be completely focused on your plan and take a 2 day tolerance break? Are you going to go for a hike every morning before the market open?
Another important point with this rule is that "If you could find yourself another motivator other than money, you will be more successful." For me, i love to help people. I trade everyday to teach people, so that, they will NEVER experience the hard times that i have gone through when i first started trading. It might be something else for you, something that you can achieve with money. It should preferably be something you are really passionate about.
The third rule is RE-ADJUSTING YOUR PLAN . No one knows what is going to happen tomorrow. If the plan is not working, then, re-adjust your plan. You need to figure out where your trading plan had failed you. Was it your setups that did not work more than 50% of the time? Was it the risk/reward ratio? Did you fail to obey your trading plan? Did you drink coffee 7 days a week to trade 13 hours a day and became too emotional? You really need to figure the missing part here, then, re-adjust your trading plan.
I hope this was helpful and i really appreciate you all! [
Don't forget to drop a like if you enjoyed.
~Bo
Megalodon Trading
Enlightening the modern investors
BUY THE DIP here's one reason why. NOT ADVICE DYORSignal line (Orange) has turned positive. NOT ADVIVE. DYOR.
How to trade Bitcoin with RSI in a bear marketHere's a few helpful tips I have learned trading RSI in a bear market.
Watch for trends and act accordingly. Open shorts at good entry points with a stop loss right above it. If your stop is hit, do not panic. Just admit you were wrong and go long/buy into the trend if the buying volume and price action is strong enough.
For shorting, watch for the RSI bounces. A first bounce below 30 RSI is your trigger point. The second bounce will usually result in a lower low and you can sell there to take profits.
Wait for your buy signal at 60 RSI again (or wherever your pattern fits) and repeat.
For the chart:
Blue boxes = short open boxes.
Red lines = set stop losses above each blue box.
Green boxes at first drop through 30 RSI = trigger boxes to get ready to sell.
Yellow boxes at 2nd bounce after 30 RSI boxes = short close.
Go long if stop is hit and if buying volume/price action is strong.
How much value has the dollar lost since 1971?Against the Swiss Franc which is also a fiat shitcoin, the USD fell 84% from 1971 to 2011 (40 years).
Just by looking at how much it fell compared to Gold from 1975 to 2011, the USD lost 94% of its value. (1/XAUUSD = USDXAU)
The same and worse holds for most fiat shitcoins right now.
As for Bitcoin and USD, Bitcoin came into life when the USD restarted its uptrend after having lost a lot of its value against most other fiat currencies. There isn't a significant correlation we can spot between the two, even though over the last 2 years there seems to be more of a negative correlation.
Even if the US gets stronger against other fiat currencies, most central banks are going to print so much that even if the Dollar gets stronger, Gold and Bitcoin could keep appreciating against the dollar and other fiat currencies.
How history hypes predict future price movement!Sometimes I ask myself why am I producing all this educational material on TW since it gets much fewer views than trade ideas themselves.
Usually, the answer is because I want to give something back. I want to teach the ones that want to learn how to catch a fish, not only get a fish.
Nikola Tesla said that we should check number 3, 6 and 9 and we would know much more about the World itself.
Let's check what number 3 tells about crypto markets.
Do you see 3 tops on all 4 graphs where the next one is lower than the previous one?
- 1st one is local hype top (peak)
- 2nd one is a local dead cat (where people still think run will go on)
- 3rd one is usually the last one (where weak players lose hands)
When that happens it's time for FUD to go away and recovery comes in place.
However, nothing can go exponential until the end. It has to stop to get some fuel for the next local hype.
That's consolidation before the next push. It can build up sideways also, but usually, it already has some upwards movement.
Some are faster like 135days or 185days to the next top in 2016 or 55-56days in 2017 when we are already deeper in the next bubble cycle.
Where are we today?
Is it consolidation or is it 3rd local top?
What do you think!?!
Give some opinions in the comments below and I will write down where I think we are. With approximately 90% probability! ;)
Enjoy your trades and don't forget that it's just an idea and not investment advice!
Bitcoin, Bonds, Gold and StocksIn this educational idea I will talk about the current state of the global economy and how Bitcoin fits in.
Most people don't realize how bad the current situation is. It could last for a few more years, as we have reached a new level of madness. Right now people are buying bonds which are so expensive, that there is no way they will get anything out of them. Not only they won't get anything, but they will get less money back at maturity. They do this only because they think somebody else is going to buy them at a higher price. Bonds have risks so they should have a yield, but now they are yielding almost nothing. Even Greek bonds are yielding 2% and they are extremely risky. Imagine paying so much for something that could cost you everything. This is definitely a bubble that could last for quite some time until everything snaps.
The on going war on cash will only ramp up and we are on the verge of a cashless society. There is no way banks can survive negative interests rates without collapsing. Low interest rates have damaged them very badly as they are struggling to make a return, and negative interest rates would totally destroy them as people withdraw their money. So a ban on cash is inevitable in order for such an event to be avoided. This will have a profound effect on bonds as people will prefer them from keeping their money in a bank. Not only this, but Central banks will also most likely keep on printing money and buying bonds, pushing their price even higher.
All this along with aging population, too much debt and pension funds being unable to make real returns are a very explosive mix that is ready to explode any time. We are seeing this especially with European banks like Deutsche bank, as well as European nation states having problems with growth. With the Fed making its first cut in 10 years, the situation in Hong Kong getting worse and with the HKD and CNH losing their 'pegs' to the dollar also very bad signs. Not only that but there is an on going global USD liquidity crunch that is most likely going to push the dollar higher, and make people that borrowed dollars in a very tough spot.
At the same time US is at full employment which is usually a point where things start trending down from that point onward. So far we are seeing US stocks having crazy valuations with their P/E ratios at pretty high levels and with large caps leading the way. This probably due to all the indexes out there, people preferring large names as a 'safe-haven' or simply larger companies having cheap access to capital to buy back their own stocks. This means that smaller companies are not following and this isn't a good sign. It shows weakness and sign that the economy is overleveraged. Central banks have muted returns by supposedly lowering risk and protecting the economy, but this has made lots of people and funds increase their leveraged positions in order to get better returns.
Not only that, but US stocks are up 30% over the last 2+ years, while for UK stocks have been pretty much stuck for almost 10 years. The US economy is the biggest in the world and it is struggling, while others have been in serious trouble. The US can't remain unaffected by what is happening around it forever. From Powell's speech it is clear that the global picture is not looking good and the Fed is clearly 'worried' about it.
Now let's get to Gold. Since 1460 it became obvious to me that Gold would continue higher. To me Gold's bubble hadn't truly popped (didn't correct completely), but I was totally discounting how much credit and money has come into the global economy through banks and central banks over the last 20 years. Based on that alone someone could say Gold is undervalued and with the current situation it could trend higher as a safety trade. Most fundamentals point to gold being the safety trade and not the Dollar, but so far we don't know how the world react if the dollar starts going higher. Right now it isn't impossible to see both of them go higher as it has happened over the last few months. As the world is moving into more insanity, everything should be expected.
In another analysis of mine I mentioned the issues I see with Gold and why we'll never see a functioning gold standard. Long term it is too problematic and during a crisis central banks could end up dumping a lot of it. A dump could come simply due to the fact that many institutions hold it and could be used as collateral. So far many central banks have been buying, but we don't know when will they be forced to sell their stock piles. People think Central Banks can't fail, but they certainly can. They are buying an asset that is actually a threat to them if it keeps appreciating. They buy gold low so that they can regulate their currencies by selling later. Currently trust in central banks is currently at an ATL and many people are questioning their effectiveness in managing monetary policy.
So far my analysis is about the current issues I see in the economy. Now let's see what how you could protect yourself in case things turn bad, because just knowing that bad things are coming is pointless. You need to know how to defend yourself. The things I will mention will allow you to capture some upside too and not just protect yourself. It will be a low risk strategy that in my opinion is well diversified. Personally like I mentioned before I am all in on BTC and that won't change, but if I wasn't, here is what I'd be doing:
First of all you want something they can't control, they can't censor, they can't inflate, they can't shut down, that you can have anywhere you go with you, that they can't detect, that allows you to pay people worldwide nearly instantaneously, that is easy to verify if it is genuine by yourself, that is impossible to counterfeit or charge back, that you own and hold yourself (there is no counterparty risk), easy to store, provides you with more privacy that paypal, you can buy goods your government might disapprove and so on. Now think which of these things can gold do and which ones Bitcoin can do. Regardless of what you think about Bitcoin viability, it is always good to have some in case it succeeds. Bitcoin will most likely give you nice upside to your entire portfolio while also protecting you from government and central bank madness. You don't know when will they ban cash, You don't know when your government will default. You don't know when hyper inflation will occur. You don't know when the stock market will crash after a 10+ year rally.
With all the above you can see why Bitcoin is better than Gold and why you should own some Bitcoin. Its current performance is also very telling about its future potential. Now in case you want to diversify I'd recommend to mostly stay away from most bonds, stocks, banks, real estate, most fiat currencies and most commodities. Here is what I think is best for those that like diversification and low risk:
- 80% in Bitcoin, Gold, US Dollars and Yen
- 20% split in several things based on your risk appetite
a) USD/USDT loans on crypto currency exchanges like Bitfinex, Poloniex, Liquid and Gate. Better yields than bonds and they pay daily interest . Are also very easy available to convert to any crypto any time. Many are strong, liquid and regulated, meaning the risk of default is pretty low.
b) Silver and Gold stocks. Silver has been pretty low compared to gold and its chart looks pretty good. Gold stocks could also perform really well, but you need to pick them very carefully. View these two as a leveraged Gold long position.
c) Stocks that historically perform well during a recession or provide services valuable in hard times. Buying already cheap stocks, that have positive cash flows and are not in indexes. Buying some in emerging markets might be a good strategy, like some Greeks stocks which have been right at the bottom for years. Personally I wouldn't put much in here, but if I did buy stocks then emerging markets with low debt or really low P/E ratios is what I'd buy.
d) In case you don't wanna buy any stocks, it would ok to get some exposure by buying some call options on certain the S&P500 in case it goes a lot higher over the next couple of years.
e) In case you are scared or not feeling like doing c or d because of the risks, it would be also prudent to short some bank stocks. Regardless of whether you long stocks or buy call options, bank stocks in Europe look pretty awful and on the current environment have pretty much 0 upside and plenty of downside. Low leveraged shorts would be a nice hedge against all uncertainty.
f) Buying and staking some new cryptocurrencies like Tezos, Algorand, Cosmos. Large, new cryptocurrencies that offer rewards for holding and staking are very attractive as traditional investors will prefer them for multiple reasons. Mainly due to liquidity, accessibility and due to the fact that most want to buy something that has a yield.
g) Other established cryptocurrencies that are either new, are connected with real businesses, exchange tokens, privacy and so on. For example I like DOGE, BFT, QASH, GT, LEO, HT, KCS, MCO, DGD, NPXS, DCR, WAXP, FSN, NKN, GRS, BTT, DUSK, ANKR, WTX, REP, MANA, LOOM, NEXO, FTM, TUBE, XMR, RIF, DERO, BCD, SC, KMD, DASH, WAVES. I don't think the right time to invest in them is now, but they will quite attractive to put some BTC in them BTC goes above 20k
h) A 1:1 leveraged Bitcoin long. Allocate some capital and long Bitcoin with low leverage. It will be very hard for you to get liquidated. Bitcoin is in a bull market and as long you buy a dip, it will be very hard for you to get stopped out.
So essentially the first category is so that you can both increase your purchasing power slowly, as well as protect yourself in case things turn bad. The second is there so that you can take a bit of extra risk and risk max 20% of your capital.
