Get started

Community ideas

USDJPY - Trading The Ascending Triangle BreakoutAfter a nearly 2,000 pip plunge, USDJPY has found support & has started to reverse. We ended the week not only violating an important level of previous structure resistance, but we also had a breakout & are currently retesting an ascending triangle. This sets us up for a potential bullish (short-term) continuation opportunity & in this video I'll show you where I'm looking for price to potentially go to next. Questions, Comments, or Views on this pair, please leave them below as I love to talk trading. Hope you guys have a great weekend & keep you eyes out for more videos from me on this space. Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
10
Crypto and Bitcoin Market Update - Price Forecasts and MoreIn this video, I cover where I think the markets go next, including Bitcoin, ETH and Solana. And how the NASDAQ:IBIT has become similar to the !CME in terms of how price tends to fill any gaps. Nobody else is talking about this, but see for yourself and start tracking the IBIT gaps on a 4 Hour chart -- You'll be amazed. I also share potential paths, likely a dip first, then push higher toward ATH. And a new study I've been refining based on liquidity and timing cycles, showing we're very close to a major move upward in Bitcoin and the rest of the market. Howerver, I feel the biggest bang for your $ will be BTC, SOL, and ETH from here. Let me know what you think, and please like the video.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by BrettFogle
9
Entering into a resistance zone, watching for support to hold Ahoy, fellow chart sailors! 🚢 Looks like we're steering into some resistance waters at the moment. Here's the treasure map for today: The Resistance: We're bumping up against a notorious resistance level. Will it be the plank or will we sail through? Support Ahoy: Keep your telescopes on the support lines. If we start to sink, these are the levels where we might find some buoyancy. Volume Waves: Keep an eye on the trading volume. A surge could mean we're about to discover new lands (breakout), or it might just be a siren's song. Signal Flags: My indicators are fluttering in the wind. The RSI is hinting we might be overbought, but the MACD still waves the bullish flag. What flags are you flying? Trading Tactics: Bullish Buccaneers: If you're on the long voyage, maybe set your stop-loss anchors just below the key support. Bearish Brigands: If you're looking to short, wait for the cannons to confirm a breach below support. What's your game plan as we sail through this resistance? Drop your thoughts below! Let's navigate these waters together. 🌊 Keep your wits about you and may your trades be ever in your favor! Let's share our charts and insights. After all, a rising tide lifts all boats!
Long
by Blayno_MTOPS
11
GOOG Analysis: Short Opportunity on the Horizon?Hello Traders, I'm sharing my analysis for GOOG, breaking it down in the simplest way possible. Wave Patterns: The previous upward trend lasted 3x as long as the recent downtrend, which was 2x. By dividing the last uptrend into three equal periods (3x), I projected the future downtrend (2x) to mirror the previous wave structure (5x total: 3x uptrend and 2x downtrend). Based on this, I expect the downtrend that began on July 8, 2024, to potentially conclude around August 25, 2025. Regression Channel: I've drawn the main regression channel on the weekly chart. GOOG's price recently bounced from the channel's upper deviation line, dropping from 190 to 155, which is near the channel's middle line. I anticipate it could reach 175 before continuing downward, forming a new downtrend. Conclusion: Given these observations, I see a promising short opportunity, targeting the channel's lower deviation at 127. Let's keep a close watch on this setup! NASDAQ:GOOG
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by Eymen-GUVEN
6
AMD Rose 20% in Two Weeks. Here Is What Its Chart ShowsAdvanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD has gained some 20% in the past two weeks, rising in part on news of plans to buy privately held server maker ZT Systems for $4.9 billion. Where does technical analysis say the stock might go from here? The ZT acquisition, which AMD announced on Monday, appears to be all about keeping up with Wall Street darling Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA in the hot area of generative artificial intelligence, or “AI.” Chips designed by firms like AMD and NVDA perform all of the calculations that make generative AI possible. They are the brains of a network that stitches a multitude of servers together inside a data center. AMD is buying ZT for its expertise in this space, paying 75% cash and 25% stock in a deal the company expects to close next year. The company said in a statement announcing the deal that it plans to divest the part of ZT that manufactures servers, which is currently ZT’s primary revenue-producing business. AMD appears to just want ZT’s AI people. Now, AMD seems unlikely to catch Nvidia any time soon in the data center/cloud/AI race. But the ZT deal could help the company remain No. 2 in the space, biding its time and staying relevant and competitive. AMD has already come a long way since Lisa Su took over as president and CEO in 2014 (and as board chair in 2022). First it was PCs and CPUs, as AMD over time stole market share from once-dominant Intel $NASDAQ:INTC. Next AMD focused on gaming, GPUs and the data center. Now the company is taking aim at generative AI, once again doggedly pursuing an industry giant (NVDA) that has a big lead -- and an even bigger reputation. The game afoot only grows more complex, and the technology more advanced as time goes on. AMD’s Fundamentals As for fundamentals, AMD still has two months until it reports results for the current quarter in late October. Last month, the company posted second-quarter earnings that beat the Street on both the top and adjusted bottom lines, with 9% year-over-year sales growth. For the current quarter, the Street currently expects to see 32% year-on-year earnings growth and 16% revenue gains. If achieved, the results could represent AMD’s hottest quarter for sales growth since 2022, as well as its best earnings growth in even longer than that. Of course, AMD’s data center will have to lead if that’s going to happen, and Wall Street would like to see the company’s gap with Nvidia close just a bit among the firm’s higher-tech chips. AMD’s Technicals In the meantime, what might AMD’s chart tell us? Let’s take a look at where things stood as of Tuesday: The chart above shows a so-called “falling wedge” pattern, which historically denotes a bullish reversal. This pattern began back in March and continues to the present. Readers will also note that AMD has just retaken its 50-Day Simple Moving Average (the blue line in the chart above) and is now trying to retake its 200-day Simple Moving Average (the red line) as well. That makes the 200-Day SMA the stock’s current pivot point -- $156.78 as of Tuesday. In support of this set-up, AMD has a Relative Strength Index reading of 60, as denoted by the gray line above. That’s strong but not technically overbought, and is still rising in the chart above. We also have a Daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) where the histogram of AMD’s 9-Day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the blue bars at the bottom of the chart above) is already in positive territory. Meanwhile, AMD’s 12-day EMA (the black line above) has already crossed over the 26-Day EMA (the gold line). This crossover is typically a bullish sign, and would mean even more if the two averages were already in positive territory to go along with the stock’s positive 9-Day EMA. That's not very far from happening. Perhaps a push above the 200-Day SMA would bring in some capital if portfolio managers felt forced to increase their exposure. (Full disclosure: Moomoo Markets Commentator Stephen Guilfoyle was long both AMD and NVDA at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:AMD
by moomoo
2
Nvidia Q2 2024 Earnings PreviewAI Juggernaut Nvidia’s highly anticipated Q2 2024 earnings report is just one week away, scheduled for release after the market closes on Thursday, 29 August, at 6.20 am (AEST). Q2 performance expectations Revenue: $28.544 billion Revenue growth: 211.31% year-on-year (YoY) Earnings per share (EPS): $0.64. Highlights of the previous quarter Expectations are high for Nvidia’s Q2 earnings, given the company’s leadership in several key growth markets. Over the past year, Nvidia has experienced significant demand across various end markets, driven primarily by data centres and gaming. In data centres, the adoption of AI and machine learning has propelled strong sales of Nvidia’s specialised GPUs and networking products. Additionally, the company has benefited from shifting enterprise workloads to the cloud. NVidia’s gaming segment continues to thrive, supported by the rise of eSports, game streaming services, and blockbuster game releases optimised for NVIDIA hardware. What to expect Nvidia’s data centre segment, which includes sales of GPUs, networking gear, and AI software, is expected to grow further as major hyperscale customers like Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet GCP increasingly adopt Nvidia chips for AI workloads. Ongoing demand for Nvidia’s latest GPUs for gaming and creative applications is anticipated to remain a key driver of revenue growth. Nvidia’s automotive computing platforms are gaining traction with more electric and autonomous vehicle manufacturers, further boosting demand for the company’s chips. Additionally, the company’s Omniverse 3D simulation platform has seen triple-digit customer growth over the past year, indicating potential future gains in enterprise software. Potential challenges to watch for Supply chain constraints: while improving, may still limit upside potential. If foundry and component shortages persist, Nvidia might struggle to meet elevated demand, which could disappoint investors. A slowdown in the PC market: due to challenging macroeconomic conditions may weaken performance in the graphics segment, dampening overall earnings growth. Economic uncertainty: could also curb business spending if conditions deteriorate, disproportionately affecting Nvidia's data centre and enterprise segments. Increasing competition: from companies like AMD and Intel, which are also investing heavily in AI-focused chips, along with big tech and automotive firms developing their own AI chips, could potentially reduce demand for Nvidia’s offerings. Despite these risks, Wall Street remains bullish on Nvidia stock heading into the Q2 earnings report. Investors are focused on Nvidia’s long-term potential in AI, high-performance computing, autonomous vehicles, and the metaverse. Success in these areas is expected to drive share price momentum post-earnings. Nvidia Technical Analysis Nvidia’s share price is up over 159% year-to-date and has almost fully recovered its 35% drop from June to August. The recovery puts Nvidia’s all-time high of $140.76 firmly in focus in the lead-up to next week's earnings, with a sustained break above here opening the way for a push towards $150. On the downside, there is a strong band of support at $100 before the $90.69 low of early August. Not far below here resides the 200-day moving average at $85.26.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by IG_com
3
Gold at a Crossroads: Breakout or Sharp Correction Ahead for XAU1. Daily Time Frame (1D) Channel Formation: The daily chart shows an ascending channel, indicating a consistent upward trend. This structure suggests that gold has been gradually gaining strength over time, with higher highs and higher lows. Key Levels: 2,507.90: Price is hovering near this key resistance, close to the upper boundary of the channel. This is also near a 15M Liquidity Zone (LQZ), making it a potential reversal point if the price cannot break through decisively. 2,500.953 and 2,477.895: These are marked as 4H Liquidity Zones (LQZ), providing support within the current channel. A drop below these levels could signal a deeper pullback towards the Daily LQZ at 2,352.710. 2. 4-Hour Time Frame (4H) Continuation Pattern: The 4H chart mirrors the ascending channel visible on the daily chart. The price is currently testing the resistance area, and there is potential for a pullback if it fails to break above. Liquidity Zones: 2,507.180: This is a 15-minute LQZ, very close to the current price. 2,500.953: A more significant 4H LQZ is just below the 15M LQZ. The confluence of these zones adds weight to the potential for a reversal or a strong move if this area is breached. 3. 15-Minute Time Frame (15M) Rejection and Potential Correction: On the 15-minute chart, there is a small rising wedge pattern that appears to be breaking down, indicating a potential short-term reversal. The price is rejecting the upper boundary of the wedge, suggesting that a correction could follow. Trade Opportunity: A break below 2,500.953 (15M LQZ) could lead to a sharper move down towards 2,477.895 (4H LQZ). This aligns with the larger time frame structures, adding credibility to this potential move. 4. 5-Minute Time Frame (5M) Immediate Reaction: The 5-minute chart shows a rejection of the upper boundary of the ascending channel and a possible small head and shoulders pattern developing. This further supports the bearish outlook in the very short term. Potential Targets: If the pattern plays out, a move towards 2,500.953 and below would align with the bearish scenarios on the higher time frames. Conclusion Short-Term Bearish Bias: Across all time frames, there's a consistent pattern of the price rejecting key resistance areas, particularly near 2,507.90 (15M LQZ) and 2,500.953 (4H LQZ). This suggests that the price may correct downward before any further attempts to break higher. Watch for Confirmations: If the price breaks below the 4H LQZ at 2,477.895, it could indicate a deeper pullback, possibly towards the daily LQZ at 2,352.710. However, a strong bounce from the current support levels could resume the upward trend. This analysis aligns with the multi-touch confirmation approach​and the rule of three​, which emphasizes the importance of repeated touches on a trendline or key level before confirming a breakout or reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MommaPreneur
17
USDJPY 20m Short-term Short Analysis Strategy preconditions USDJPY 20m chart, the downtrend strength has not completely depleted, we can still take some final Short trades before potential ranging or reverse begins. There are 2 Short strategies to go about, the first one is more risky while the second is safer and more rewarding. 1. Directly enter Short around the 20m resistance level 145.544, as the blue prediction shows. SL can be set below the "Caution level", TP at 144.520, do not be greedy for this trade, since the market can reverse quickly. I sense already that the momentum starts slowing down. This trade is more risky because we'll ignore additional LTF downward BOS confirmation, instead, we take Short directly when the 20m resistance is reached. 2. if we see that before the market reaches the 20m resistance, it has formed a relatively more bumpy and slower pattern shown by the purple prediction, we then wait for a clean LTF downward BOS confirmation and pullback prior to our Short entry. SL can be set above the entry area, and TP in this case can be more greedy at 1H level 144.147, which seems pretty clean in 20m chart as well. Cautions For the second strategy, if the "Caution level" is reached before any LTF downward BOS confirmation has formed, we must abandon this strategy, and start re-analysing the whole thing. In that case, I think the market will start ranging. For the first strategy, if the "Caution level" is reached first, then it is a loss. I know that the downtrend on 20m chart seems promising, but do NOT be greedy and think about some daily TP far below. We only take profit that we do understand.
Short
by ForextWaveTrading
4
BLUE DART EXPRESS | 100% returns | Breakout of 9-year resistanceBLUE DART EXPRESS Monthly time frame Breakout from 9-year white resistance trend line Breakout from perfect cup & handle pattern Stock riding above 20-, 50- & 200-month moving averages RSI > 60, indicating bullish momentum MACD crossover done and is above the 0 line, indicating bullish momentum Volumes have been good since Apr 2020, implies heavy buying Weekly time frame Retest of the white resistance trend line almost complete Stock riding above 20-, 50- & 200-week moving averages RSI > 60, indicating bullish momentum MACD above the 0 line, indicating bullish momentum Daily time frame Stock consolidating along the white resistance trend line Stock has made a higher low (Dow theory) Stock price converging along 20- & 50- day moving averages, breakout possible RSI > 50, indicating bullish momentum MACD is about to cross the 0 line, indicating momentum build up Conclusion Entry: 8,000 Stop Loss: 6,700 Target 1: 9,600 Target 2: 12,150 Target 3: 16,275 Fundamentals ROCE = 19.2% {Ideal > 15} ROE = 22.7% {Ideal > 15} Stock PE (65) = Industry PE (65) {Stock not overvalued} Int Coverage = 5.81 {Ideal > 2} CF Operations / EBIT = 1.83 {Ideal > 1} Debt to equity = 0.78 {Ideal value < 1} Promoter stake has remained consistent over the years > 75%
NSE:BLUEDARTLong
by shyamsrk2
5
MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023. The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point. Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
4
Bitcoin: Play Support/Resistance Or Stay Away.Bitcoin has established a higher low off the 56K support area as anticipated in my previous article. From here a test of the 62 to 64K resistance area is within reason over the coming week. No matter what information you consume, the price action at this time is clear: Bitcoin is still INSIDE a broad consolidation. This means UNTIL it can demonstrate a breakout one way or the other with conviction, it is best to anticipate the consolidation to continue. This means paying attention to action around notable support/resistance levels that are relevant to your strategy time frame. In the markets, there is a tendency for "history to repeat itself". I understand this to mean the human behavioral element behind the price action. I mention this because if you notice, the low 64K area has numerous repetitive reactions over the previous few months (see arrow). The reason why does not matter, what matters is that there is a particular kind of price action around a level that can be anticipated in the near future. How you utilize this information will depend on your strategy specifically. For example, if you are looking for day trades you may not use it the same way as someone looking for swing trades, etc. Another aspect to keep in mind is the fact that we are now entering into the SLOWEST time of the year in terms of participation and volume. Weeks 3 and 4 of August are usually slow, erratic and very tough to navigate particularly on smaller time frames. Volume usually returns back to normal by the first week of October. This is NOT precise, but a tendency that I have observed over the years. This means it is usually better to be more selective about setups, take more time off and/or paper trade more. Low volume does not imply bearishness per se, but it can increase the chances of slow grinds either way, lack of follow through, price spikes that fake out, etc. Play the support/resistance or don't play at all. When operating on smaller time frames you can consider this situation from both sides. Look for confirmation of momentum continuation patterns on the long side until price reaches the 62 to 64K area. From there look for confirmations of bearish reversals. "Confirmations" is synonymous with "signals" generated by my Trade Scanner Pro. When markets consolidate like this, technical analysis can help immensely when it comes to evaluating potential, risk and probability. I repeat this often, this is NOT about forecasting the future, it is about using previous information to identify potential and measuring the associated risk. This is what CONTEXT is all about and where trade ideas begin. To have chance of winning you must be able to anticipate while at the same time account for the possibility of being wrong. This is NOT about hunches, feelings, opinions or logic. It is all about being a good "listener" of the market because it is ALWAYS right. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
15
Bearish reversal?GBP/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.77176 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.78211 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.76227 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Nuls | Simple Signal (Volume Breakout — 185% BU-Pot.)Let's keep it simple... Just notice the trading volume yesterday (19-August) on this daily NULSUSDT chart. A very strong "volume breakout." Trading volume, suddenly, becomes the highest since early 2024. Notice that this is happening as the rest of the altcoins market goes bullish (marketwide correlation) as well as after the C wave of a classic EW ABC correction. 👉 This indicates that there is potential for growth. I am showing two targets on the chart, 137% and 186%... But it can go higher, much, much higher... You've been warned! Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
8
ARM: Approaching an inflection point. | 1H & D Chart Analysis |On the 1-hour chart, the price is moving within an ascending channel, marked by the two purple trendlines. The price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong short-term uptrend. However, it’s currently approaching the lower boundary of the channel, which coincides with the 21-hour EMA. This area could act as double support, and a bounce from here might lead to another attempt to reach the upper boundary of the channel. If the price breaks below the channel, it could signal a short-term reversal, leading to a potential test of the recent low around $97.76, which is its most important support level. On the daily chart, after a significant drop, the price has started to recover. The 21-day EMA is still sloping downward, indicating that the broader trend might still be under pressure. What's more, thihs 21 EMA is acting as a resistance level for ARM, as it failed to break it last week. Could ARM reverse the mid-term bearish sentiment? Yes, but it needs to break the 21 EMA (D) asap. If the price stays inside the ascending channel observed on the 1h chart, even better. By turning bullish, the open gaps (yellow squares) will become our next targets. Summary Support Levels: Watch the lower boundary of the channel on the 1-hour chart. Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is at 21 EMA on the daily chart, with the upper boundary of the channel on the 1-hour chart also acting as a potential resistance. We should be cautious of a break below the ascending channel, as it could indicate a short-term reversal, while a sustained move above 21 EMA on the daily chart could suggest a more prolonged recovery. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:ARM
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
Fed’s Powell to Address Rate Cuts at Jackson Hole: What to KnowThe annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium takes place this week. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, will step up to the podium on August 23 and shed light into the central bank’s interest rate-cut timeline. His words will echo around global markets and either propel stocks higher on rate-cut optimism or knock them down if the outlook turns gloomy in the lead-up to the Fed's rate-setting meeting on September 18. No in-between. The most exclusive retreat in central banking — the Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium — is gathering top bankers, economists, financiers and other financial heavyweights for three days of idea swapping, hint dropping and market popping (hopefully.) What’s Jackson Hole? Every August, the top dogs in global finance trade their suits for some Wyoming flannel and gather at Jackson Hole. Hosted by the Kansas City Fed since 1978, this is the forum to brainstorm the future of monetary policy and send it out to traders ready to absorb every word. It’s like summer camp for the financial elite, except the campfire stories can crash markets or send them soaring. When the Fed Chair speaks here, the world listens. Major policy shifts have been telegraphed at Jackson Hole, from hints of rate hikes to the next round of quantitative easing. If you’re trading, you can’t afford to ignore what’s said — or not said — in these mountain-side discussions. Highlights from Past Forums 2010: Ben Bernanke, then Fed Chair, hinted at QE2, a measure to spur growth and keep prices steady through bond purchases, and the markets took off like a rocket. Were you long? Because it was a good time to be long. 2020: Jerome Powell unveiled a major shift in Fed policy towards average inflation targeting. The central bank was more inclined to tolerate inflation above the ideal 2% target before it started pumping interest rates. Expectations for This Week’s Gathering This week’s Fed event will be especially meaningful and consequential. The Fed boss is slated to present his keynote address on August 23. Jay Powell, the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon,” has a lot to break down. Inflation has been going down recently. The latest figures show the consumer price index for July slipped under the 3% mark for the first time since 2021. Consumer spending remains resilient. The retail sales report, again for July, showed that the mighty American shopper upped spending by 1% , topping expectations. The labor market, however, got way off the beaten path. Just 114,000 new jobs were created in July. This is also what caused the global market shake-up that sent ripples through every asset class — from stocks to crypto and beyond. Against this economic backdrop, Jay Powell will be moving markets and making headlines as he delivers his remarks. Front and center is some sort of further confirmation of an expected interest rate cut — already communicated and most likely already priced in. The question now is not if, but by how much interest rates are getting trimmed. Analysts expect borrowing costs to go down either by 25 basis points or a bigger, juicier 50-basis-point cut. And here’s what each one of these means and what’s at stake. If the Fed chooses to cut rates down by 25bps, it risks not doing enough to prevent the economy from tipping into a recession. Higher rates for longer make it more difficult for businesses to borrow and drive growth. But if the Fed chooses to cut rates by too much — a jumbo 50bps cut — it runs the risk of reigniting inflation and, what’s even more, fueling another speculative bull run in the markets. Low rates make money less expensive as loans cost less. The expansive monetary policy measure of cutting interest rates aims to boost economic growth both on the business level and the consumer level. Companies take out loans to expand their operations, build new stuff and hire more workers. And the average consumer finds it easier to get a mortgage or buy a new car (or some Bitcoin ?). Overall, more money is spinning around, creating opportunity and offering liquidity for deals across markets. Brace yourselves as Jay Powell gets ready to drop some hints and prepare the audience for the Fed’s next meeting coming September 17-18. The markets may very well be heading into a rollercoaster few weeks as they try to predict the scale of interest rate cuts. Are you getting ready to pop a trade open this week? Share your thoughts and expectations below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
8
Natural gas is the downtrend resuming? Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend. Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe. This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price. However historically were still at some oversold levels. Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower. Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA closely...do we get the death cross formation to occur again? Usually this signal provides a near term bounce but medium term decline.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
7