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Ethereum Breakout Consolidation. What's Next?!Hello @TradingView traders! This is @Vestinda ETHUSD price analysis. Last week in crypto was good in terms of inflows; the overall market cap surpassed 1.2T. Ethereum, meanwhile, had a little breakthrough from $1700 and now appears to have room to increase to $2000 after an Adam & Eve pattern developed. A brief Explanation of the Adam and Eve Pattern The Adam pattern is characterized by a sudden downward price movement, a gradual leveling out, and a little upward price movement. On the graph, this results in a "V" form, with the first drop resembling the letter "A." The Eve pattern forms a rounded bottom with a progressive upward movement that mimics the letter "U." The Adam & Eve pattern, which results from the combination of these two patterns, can indicate a possible shift in the direction of the asset's price trend. Before making a trading choice, traders may use other technical indicators to corroborate the pattern. It's crucial to keep in mind that technical analysis, which includes chart patterns like the Adam & Eve pattern, is just one instrument used in trading and ought to be used in conjunction with other types of analysis, like fundamental analysis and market news. 🚨🚨🚨So here is the fundamentals for Ethereum: The Ethereum Shanghai upgrade is almost complete and scheduled to roll out on April 12, 2023. This update will allow for the withdrawal of staked ETH on the Beacon chain. The core developers approved the deadline with epoch 620, 9536 in an Execution layer meeting, and the lead developer, Tim Beiko, confirmed the launch through his tweet. In addition to enabling withdrawals from the Beacon chain, the Shanghai upgrade includes five other improvements. In December 2020, validators were required to stake 32 ETH on the ETH 2.0 smart contract to activate the Beacon chain. Since then, validators have continued to stake, with the smart contract now holding over 17.6 million ETH, valued at nearly $30 billion. This has raised concerns of a massive sell-off. After the successful merge of the Beacon chain with the Mainnet, the network's roadmap includes Surge, Verge, Purge, and Splurge. Developers have conducted numerous tests to ensure the proper functioning of staked ETH withdrawals since the merge. All tests were deployed on Ethereum testnets to ensure a smooth run, with the last one, Goerli, experiencing a low participation rate. Have you read something about Bulls and Bears? What are your favorite topics? Your feedback will help us create more relevant and useful content! Thank you so much.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Vestinda
24
JPM / JP Morgan - Don't Gamble On Regional BanksI know that whenever something drops by 30 or 50 or 70 percent in one or two days it seems like you might be able to smash buy and ride the bounce back to the top, but just take a look at how well that worked out for tech stocks once the market started to correct at the end of 2021, or just take a look at how well that worked for Silicon Valley Bank dip buyers who found their shares worth $0 in a few hours. JP Morgan and the other big American banks aren't just "big American banks," but the financial arm of the United States' military industrial complex. Moreover, they're something that's become a pillar of the entire world's financial ecosystem. The heart of the world's economy is in Manhattan, but they're also the ones responsible for providing a financial life line (a blood transfusion) to the Chinese Communist Party all of these years. Here's some things everyone should think about: 1. Regional banks are not a buy, because they need to be eliminated for Central Bank Digital Currencies 2. SWIFT itself is expanding its CBDC platform pilot globally after a test run that involved a JP Morgan-created centralized fork of Ethereum . 3. CBDCs are required for the global implementation of the CCP's social credit credit system 4. CBDCs mean citizen and small business banking becomes centralized in Federal Reserve proxy accounts ran through the biggest banks 5. Welcome to communism. The purpose of all of this is to install communism for the purposes of attempting to change the human living condition. Credit Suisse is probably going to implode for real and that's going to cause some chaos for the markets. This play is pretty much a mirror of the 2008 GFC with Bear Sterns, which everyone would do well to educate themselves on how that went down . The problem with Central Bank QE isn't all the Libertarian crap you've been told. The problem is that deposits are a liability for banks because they have to pay interest on them, and so they need to seek yield. Seeking yield on a very large position is very hard, because guys like JPM and Blackrock and Vanguard happen to make the markets, and markets are a euphemism for a casino, and casinos are zero sum games where there's a small number of winners and a large number of losers. And so when there's no interest rates, banks have to take risks to generate cashflow to pay interest to the very, very large depositors. When QE was hot that seemed to have meant long bonds, long equities. And then the Fed raised rates 5 percent while they were holding a lot of equities and bonds and now those bonds and equities aren't worth very much. So they're red on their positions and can't HODL through it because of bank runs and go under. It's as simple as that and it was an engineered play for smaller banks to be destroyed and then the big banks buy the liquidations. It's the same as how whales kill sharks by holding them upside down in the water, which makes them disoriented and paralyzed, and then the whales eat their livers and leave them to die. JPM on the monthly is not likely to have topped and gives you no reason to think there's a financial crash or any real bearishness brewing: Yet the weekly shows you confluence between Fib levels and gaps, and that it's just too early to go long, and kind of scary to scalp short to boot: JPM's double tops at $145 made very little sense at the time, and that's because, in my opinion, they were short their own stock under $150 in anticipation of what everyone who's running big data analysis for real knew, that SIVB and SBNY and SI would collapse, that CS was a bloated corpse in the river that the Swiss National Bank couldn't save, and that it was time to start taking down the regional banks by using the crisis as an opportunity. Naturally, being a bank and part of the sector, this will give grounds to make JPM's shares drop, so they just sell, and then buy back, and then give themselves bonuses and go for happy hour with cocaine and strippers when the drama is over because someone buys CS and the Fed pauses hikes, and they pump their own stock back to $200. Another thing is that the narrative is that equities are *going2themoon* because the Federal Reserve just HAS to stop hiking rates now. Look at how much damage the rate hikes caused! They just have to stop hiking now! They probably won't. FOMC hasn't led to a dumpster fire in quite a few months and you should be concerned about that. After Wednesday's FOMC, the next one afterwards is May 2. Expect them to pivot then, not now, and for May, June, July to become another "most hated rally" for bears. Except this time it won't be a bear market rally, but a bump and run reversal, that pumps tech and other dumpster trash to a new ATH that makes bears blow their accounts. Look for longs in the $110 range on JPM and expect the October bottom to hold, because it's called a pivot for a reason, sons. It's JP Morgan. This kind of disaster in the markets today was arranged by them, and is not something they're personally subject to. The disasters that lie ahead for the current regime because of what they've been doing to help the CCP as it persecutes Falun Gong over the last 24 years are retribution that they haven't arranged and that nobody can dodge, and something that will catch the entire market off guard. But for now, you can get $40 a share if you buy in the $110s and sell at $150. And the time horizon is probably literally no later than the end of May, too. Don't go long on regional banks. Go long on the big banks. And then get out and be careful, because everything in this world is about to change very quickly, and human beings are not going to be able to bear the terribleness of what happens when the regime goes to install communism worldwide.
NYSE:JPMLong
by LordWrymouth
10
Are you ready to hold the bag?Over the past few days, the market situation calmed down a bit, and stocks reacted positively to the rescue of Credit Suisse and regional banks in the United States. We previously noted that a relief in Bitcoin would be closely tied to the rebound in stocks, which continues to be the case. People remain bullish, arguing that the recent aggressive uptick in prices only shows how bullish the market has become. One of the common arguments is that Bitcoin would not rise so steeply (and so fast) if we were in a bear market. However, we want to remind our readers that the enormous magnitude of the move-up does not necessarily mean we are out of the woods. For example, during one particular correction in 2018, Bitcoin jumped almost 100% within two weeks. Yet, despite that aggressive move (accompanied by euphoria and bullish forecasts), Bitcoin still managed to erase over 73% of its value in the following months. The reality is that bear market rallies are well-known for their deceptive nature, which causes market participants to reassess their views, hook them on, and then surprise them with an abrupt change of direction (leaving them to hold the bags). We expect the current rally to be no different. Why? Because in the big picture, nothing has changed. The FED is still poised to increase interest rates next week, further pressuring the (already) weak economy. As a result, we anticipate investors to sober up once they find out there is still no pivot on the table and more signs of recession appear. In turn, we expect this to weigh heavily on the stock market, which stays highly correlated to Bitcoin, dragging it down with it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the correction of the downtrend in 2018 when Bitcoin rose nearly 100% within two weeks. Despite this enormous move, Bitcoin did not cease the bear market and ended up erasing over 73% of its value in the next 298 days. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin around 2014/2015. A rally of more than 160% can be observed, taking place only within 19 days. Again, despite this abrupt move up, Bitcoin declined more than 84% over the course of the following year. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the daily chart of Bitcoin. The yellow arrow hints at declining volume, which is highly worrisome. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
288
Walt Disney: Is Disney Stock Worth Buying Now?Walt Disney's Stock: A Look at its Recent Challenges and Future Prospects under New CEO Bob Iger With a market capitalization of around $170 billion, Walt Disney is one of the largest entertainment companies globally. However, with its stock price down over 30 percent from last year, investors may be questioning the value of the company's stock. After Bob Iger's departure as CEO in February 2020, Bob Chapek took over and pledged to continue Iger's successful path. However, Chapek faced many difficulties, leading to his departure in November 2022 and Iger's return to the CEO role. Iger made key personnel changes and promised to streamline costs and give creative teams more decision-making authority. Under Chapek's watch, Disney+ saw exponential growth, with 164.2 million subscribers worldwide. Still, it wasn't profitable, and subscriber growth became increasingly difficult in recent quarters, leading to criticism from activist investor Nelson Peltz. Disney lost 2.4 million Disney+ customers in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023, the first case of a shrinking subscriber base, prompting Iger to announce a plan to find $5.5 billion in savings in the coming years, including cutting $3 billion from the company's content division. While Peltz withdrew his proxy challenge after Iger's announcement, some analysts are concerned that Disney's decision to cut content spending could jeopardize future revenue growth, especially as the company plans to appoint a new CEO by early 2025. The company has invested heavily in Disney+, spending around $33 billion in the last fiscal year, and some investors may worry about future growth. However, the company still boasts a strong park business, with $7.4 billion in revenue in the first quarter, up from $5.5 billion in the previous quarter, and a diverse range of other assets. With Iger back at the helm, investors will be eagerly watching to see what steps the company takes next to address its streaming ambitions and navigate the challenging entertainment industry landscape.
NYSE:DISShort
by FOREXN1
26
$TNX in range and a comparison of Yields around 2008#Yield is moving well today. 1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr. $TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08. Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago? 10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least. The last picture shows the highs of the 2 yr and 10 yr right before the crash of 2008. Interesting that almost everything happened in the month of June. Even when it was 3 different years! Hmmm. *** Now let's compare what yields did around the 2008 crash. *** The 2yr yield peaked @ 5.28% and it did it much earlier. It was almost 2 years before the 10Yr yield did. The 2yr also formed a lower higher in 2007 (5.13%) & peaked in June 2008, much lower @ 3%, before the real crash happened. The 10yr didn't peak until June 2008. way after short term rates peaked. We also see that the peak was around 4.3%. Stocks peaked in Oct 07 and the lower high was May 2008. *** We are seeing something similar today. However, IMO everything happens faster today. We're keeping a close eye on lower highs in short term yields and we could be seeing this now. Time will tell. This data is just like other data. Just past info to help weather the current & future storms.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
8
Australian dollar climbs on strong employment dataThe Australian dollar has taken investors on a roller-coaster ride this week, reflective of the gyrations we're seeing in the financial markets. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6656, up 0.56%. Australia's employment report for February was stronger than expected. The economy produced 64,600 news jobs, after a decline of 10,900 in January. This beat the estimate of 48,500. What was especially encouraging was that full-time jobs rose by 74,900, with part-time positions declining by 10,300. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, its lowest level in almost 50 years, down from 3.7% and below the estimate of 3.6%. The tightness in the labour market has allowed the RBA to aggressively tighten, with ten straight rate hikes since April 2022. Inflation slowed to 7.4% in January, down from 8.4% in December, so the rate hikes are having an effect on curbing inflation. Still, it will be a long road back to the inflation target of around 2%. The central bank is leaning to taking a pause at the April meeting and leaving the cash rate at 3.60%. Major central banks are moving away from continued tightening and the RBA will have to take that into account, as well as the Silicon Valley Bank crisis which has investors on edge about contagion spreading. Central banks have to be cautious with all the market turmoil, for fear that additional tightening would make a global recession more likely. Market pricing of rate moves has been gyrating like a yo-yo, and currently there is a 10% chance that the RBA will cut rates by 25 basis points at the April meeting. Just a month ago, the markets expected rates to peak at 4.1% in August. The SVB crisis has completely shifted pricing and the markets are currently expecting rates to fall to 3.35% by August.On There was more good news as Australian consumer inflation expectations for March ticked lower to 5.0%, down from 5.1% and below the forecast of 5.4%. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6639. Below, there is support at 0.6508 0.6713 and 0.6844 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
4
Financials Revisit a Long-Term LevelThe past week’s selloff in banks has inflicted some punishment on the broader financial sector. But how severe is it? Will the crisis become an opportunity for patient buyers? Today’s chart of the SPDR Financial Select Sector Fund might help answer those questions. It uses weekly candles to help provide a long-term perspective. The main pattern with potential relevance is the price area around $31. It was the high on two notable occasions: before the financial crisis in 2007 and immediately before the pandemic in February 2020. Notice how XLF tested and held this critical level in June and July of 2022. The index briefly fell about $1 below it in October but recovered after a few weeks. Those previous bounces may suggest that old resistance has become new support. Fast forward to March 2023 and XLF is back in the same neighborhood. This morning saw a probe as low as $30.90 before prices rebounded. Given that the current low is slightly above the October trough, the result could be an inverted head and shoulders basing pattern. (See the white arrows.) The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is the other potentially noteworthy pattern. Notice how XLF bounced at this line at other moments in 2016 and 2018. (See the green arrows.) Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above: Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ( XLF ): 1-year: -7.27% 5-years: +23.73% 10-years: +150.14% (As of February 28, 2023) Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
AMEX:XLF
by TradeStation
3
BTC Reversal Diamond? Here we are looking at BTCUSD on the 6hr TF… With the higher highs and lower lows that BTC has been putting in, I was able to find this potential reversal diamond pattern in the chart. If this structure is valid, there is still plenty of room left for chop in the coming weeks before a stronger move. For those of you who don’t know, reversal diamonds have a target of lows made before the up move. In this case, it would be back to the bear market lows. 
This isn’t to say that it HAS to be a reversal diamond pattern yet, however three lower lows and higher highs point to this being a strong possibility. I will continue to monitor the development of this structure, and update you as I see fit… Do you think BTC is forming a reversal diamond? Let me know in the comments! Cheers!!
Short
by GarethSolowayOfficial
110
TFC in the "Valley of Risk"Preface and Disclaimer: I have a long term stake in Truist Financial Corp NYSE:TFC :( I wondered "why" Truist, company I have held for a very long time (when it was BB&T) would have been caught up in this contagion of small bank risk fears. An article by Seeking Alpha sheds some light on it: seekingalpha.com TL;DR, over the weekend analysis dug into their books and found that Truist was exposed to some of the same risk factors, namely low yield securities, as Silicon Valley Bank NASDAQ:SIVB . It is not existential risk, as Truist has a much better Deposit ratio than SVB, but it may impact the bank's profitability in the future. This fiasco is an example of why I do not assume bankers, Wall Street analysts, or "whales" operate at some vastly greater intelligence. In hindsight... buying up tons of low yield treasuries does not seem risky. But once something happened... suddenly EVERYONE realizes how risky it actually is and now EVERYONE is paying attention. There are thousands of people earning high 6 figs to look at and data crunch these numbers every day for months and only NOW realize they have a systemic risk problem. In my own analysis which I study and try to apply dispassionately I too can look back in hindsight at the price action of NYSE:TFC and see a clear warning sign I missed. In the summer of 2022 TFC was hovering around the 50% Retracement Level support from the COVID low to All Time High. I study and trade this key level every day on every timeframe. It's a technical analysis that I have learned to trust. By October 2022 price had clearly violated and broken the level as a part of the broader market selloff. This bearish trend that persisted through 2022 was not secular to TFC or banking. What it should demonstrate though is a secular lack strength to HOLD its own trend despite market conditions. Often price will hesitate and/or recapture said level... consolidating around it. The damage to the bullish trend though is already done and if one ignores these warnings the position is in danger of falling into what I call "The Valley of Risk" where there are no more supports until the last major low (The COVID low) and sometimes even beyond. That is where TFC has fallen today on this recent FUD. I still believe that TFC is a strong bank. This move down has put it into some spectacular dividend yield territory (6.45% as of writing). For a pure dividend play for me it is a hold. But as a technical trader I put this in my catalog of examples of how a bullish trend gives ample warning of failure before it truly drops.
NYSE:TFCLong
by norok
3
Bitcoin 200wk avg Resistance at $25k-ish$25k has been the hard top in Bitcoin recently, with a nice floor being put in at $20k. $20k price support stems from the high set during the crypto bubble in 2017/18 and has historical value. $25k price resistance is coming in the form of the 200-wk average, an average that Bitcoin has never closed below let alone trended below before in the chartable price history going back to 2011. Price being below the 200wk average is also historically significant. The lower indicators are trying to turn bullish: -The PPO is close to a bullish cross above the 0 level, just waiting on the purple base line to join the green signal line above 0. -The TDI is showing the green RSI line in a tight range between the 50-60 level, just keeps bouncing off each one these past few weeks. A move above 60 would be bullish and what we want to see as more bullish price confirmation. $20k is the support level to watch in price, a failure to hold there would likely mean a re-test of $15.5k. $25k is the resistance level to watch in price, a successful breach above there would likely mean a test of $30k next. No trading for me, just stacking Bitcoin weekly since September when price first fell back down to $20k. I will continue to buy weekly as long as I can keep my cost average below $30k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
5
Investors are caught-up in the Regional Banking fiascoShares in the banking sector have taken a hit amidst Silicon and Signature banking fiasco. In an attempt to recoup investors' confidence, the treasury secretary has ruled out any bailout plans. The fed chairman has also ensured that depositors would have access to their funds. Despite all the efforts, the market seems skeptical, and the regional banking crisis is causing short-term sell-offs across the baking sector. Bank of America (BAC), the second largest bank in the US with total assets of $3.05 trillion, is down by 5.81%. The trading volume increased to 210.5 million shares, making BAC one of the most actively traded instruments. BAC stocks have been tumbling for the past week. It's too early to conclude it would be Lehman Brothers circa 2008/2009, said Abrar Bhatti, a Specialist at Exness, BAC indeed seems 'too big to fail.' The depositors may accelerate the shift towards the large banks from the regional ones. The main challenge for the regional banks is if they can compete with the big banks, with their limited liquidity and diversification. On the technical side, since July 2022, per share price has been consolidating between the $29.50 support and $37.00 resistance area. After the March CPI data, the BAC stocks are trading around the support area of $29.50. Also, the price is trading below 50MA, and the bears could push the market down to the $25.00 support area. In the Monthly charts, a push below the $20.00 support area, which coincides with a 61.8% fib retracement of the wave beginning around January 2012, would expose BAC shares to further losses. That would be one of the indications of a full-blown recession. On the upside, RSI is already in the oversold territory. If the bears are unable to push the price down on the subsequent attempts, bulls would be looking to break minor resistance of $30.80 and $33.00 in intraday trading.
NYSE:BAC
by Exness_Official
7
The MACRO MARKET ($SPY CHART)In this video, I discuss my outlook on the market ($SPY) and a few trades that we, YS Stocks Investment Club, have jumped in. The past 10 months we have seen the market continue in its Declining phase but not before edging a bit higher in the month of October. Many investors expected the rally to begin in January but October began the bear market rally that took the Bulls on a nice ride. February, $SPY closed in a "shooting star" or "inverted hammer" signaling a potential downshift on the market to retest previous lows: $370s - $360s. We have jumped on a few trades as the market continues to Ebb and Flow in this uncertain environment. We have been on the $379/$370 Put Debit Spread (PDS); JUN 23 expiration for over 3 months and it looks promising to deliver profits in the month of Mar or April. Time will tell, but we are following our YS Options Trading Plan and set out STOP LOSS for this and all trades that we are in. TRADE RESPONSIBLY and DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE..
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tocoalimon
6
You decide - SVB Financial collapse - who is to blame?A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge (payers swaps were clearly needed) -SVBs management – In the past 8 months SVB had no risk manager - fortune.com - no one knows how they efficiently managed risk -SVBs management – the accounts showed they held $91b of its $120b securities in its HTM (assets Held to Maturity) book – these are assets they intend to hold until maturity but the accounting rules detail, that they don’t need to mark-to-market the moves in the underlying and report the ballooning losses – which again were not hedged. -SVB deposit mix - 93%+ were above the FDIC insurance limit – this makes depositors v sensitive to any capital concerns at the bank -SVB deposit mix - VCs had a rapid cash burn, as projects they back are typically driven by changes in interest rates (think Net Present value and Internal rates of return) – depositors took cash off SVB’s balance sheet to fund operations – SVB subsequently had to sell assets as their liabilities fell – we then see realised losses from buying securities at much higher prices. -Short sellers/investor base – shorts had an eye on unrealised losses from the worsening asset quality for weeks – the selling accelerated when the CEO/CFO/CMO disclosed they’d sold a chunk of stock on 27 March – it was over when the SVB took a $1.8b hit on its AFS securities available for sale on Wednesday – management sold $21b of its $28b book and announced a $2.25b in equity/debt raising - investors knew with conviction that depositors were fleeing – who supports a raising when liabilities are falling – no one sensible, raising pulled -The Fed - failing to know such a shift in rates would impact banks asset quality when its primary function is financial stability. -Regulation - Basel 3 - banks being forced to buy govt paper against deposits - v low risk weighting (perhaps required a hedge Hard to pinpoint this on one aspect IMO - I think there is a perfect storm going on – a lack of hedging of interest rate risk was clearly a dominant factor behind this. Top down this is a function of rapidly tightening monetary policy and the impact this had on both the asset quality and liability side of the balance sheet – we should recall SVBs model is not the same as others in the banking space, so its hard to say this is systemic – still we wait for the outcome on next steps on how deposits over $250k will be dealt with – we’re hearing they may get 50% back initially but a buyer would be the best solution The issue for regional/smaller banks comes if is we see some sort of haircut on the deposits claim over $250k – that could see a loss of confidence in holding deposits with other smaller banks names – we shall hear more soon, but broad contagion through the financial system seems unlikely, but it is a possibility given nearly 1/3 deposits in the banking system are uninsured – any bank with a large asset base and low equity are in the spotlight As said Friday this could be a nothing burger or have real impactions on economics - the big issue happens this week if we see no clarity on how depositors are dealt (seems unlikely) with and we get a hot CPI print
AMEX:KRE
by Pepperstone
31
SPX 2023 VS SPX 2008, Is it possible for this to happen again?The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. The index has been widely used as a gauge of the US equity market's performance, and it has been around since 1923. In 2008, the world witnessed one of the worst economic crises in history. The financial crisis of 2008, also known as the global financial meltdown, was a severe worldwide economic crisis that resulted in the collapse of the housing market, the banking system, and the stock market. The S&P 500 index was no exception and suffered greatly during this time. Fast forward to 2023. Recently, the failure of SVB bank has caused a ripple effect that is impacting many startups. This failure has led to a tightening of credit lines and a general sense of unease in the startup community. Many startups are finding it difficult to secure the financing they need to continue operating and growing. Some businesses have shut down, unemployment rates are soaring, and the stock market is experiencing extreme volatility . Many investors are wondering if the current situation is similar to that of 2008, and if the history will repeat itself. The answer is not straightforward, as there are both similarities and differences between the two crises. One similarity is the extreme volatility in the stock market. In both 2008 and 2023, the stock market experienced sharp declines and significant rebounds, causing investors to panic and sell their stocks. Here are some significant events that took place during the 2008 financial crisis, which was one of the worst economic crises in history. This crisis, also known as the global financial meltdown, caused the collapse of the housing market, the banking system, and the stock market. The S&P 500 index was no exception and suffered greatly during this time. On June 1, 2008, the Federal Reserve provided $225 billion in liquidity through its Term Auction Facility, which was a temporary measure to add liquidity. On July 11, 2008, IndyMac bank failed, and oil prices peaked at $147.50. In August 2008, unemployment in the US reached 6%. On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers, a global financial services firm, filed for bankruptcy with $639 billion in assets and $613 billion in liabilities. On September 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve took over American International Group ( AIG ) with $85 billion in debt and equity funding. The Reserve Primary Fund "broke the buck" due to its exposure to Lehman Brothers securities. On September 17, 2008, investors withdrew $144 billion from U.S. money market funds, equivalent to a bank run on money market funds. These funds frequently invest in commercial paper issued by corporations to fund their operations and payrolls, causing the short-term lending market to freeze. On September 26, 2008, Washington Mutual went bankrupt and was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation after a bank run in which panicked depositors withdrew $16.7 billion in 10 days. On September 29, 2008, the House of Representatives rejected the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, including the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, with most Democrats in support and Republicans against. In response, the DJIA dropped 777.68 points, or 6.98%, then the largest point drop in history. The S&P 500 Index fell 8.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 9.1%. Several stock market indices worldwide fell 10%. Gold prices soared to $900/ounce. The Federal Reserve doubled its credit swaps with foreign central banks as they all needed to provide liquidity. On October 16, 2008, a rescue plan was unveiled for Swiss banks UBS AG and Credit Suisse. On October 24, 2008, many of the world's stock exchanges experienced their worst declines in history, with most indices dropping around 10%. In the U.S., the DJIA fell 3.6%, although not as much as other markets. On March 6, 2009, the Dow Jones hit its lowest level of 6,469.95, a drop of 54% from its peak of 14,164 on October 9, 2007, over a span of 17 months, before beginning to recover. On March 10, 2009, shares of Citigroup rose 38% after the CEO said that the company was profitable in the first two months of the year and expressed optimism about its capital position going forward. Major stock market indices rose 5–7%, marking the bottom of the stock market decline. These events had a significant impact on the global economy and the financial markets. The crisis was caused by a housing bubble and the collapse of the banking system. The Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing, a program that involved buying large amounts of securities to stimulate the economy. While there are similarities between the current economic crisis and that of 2008, there are also significant differences. It is difficult to predict whether history will repeat itself, but one thing is certain: the stock market will continue to be volatile, and investors should be prepared for both ups and downs. Based on the 2009 crisis, there was an opportunity to short foreign markets as they typically receive news slightly after us and experience a delay effect. Another opportunity was the inverse relationship between the dollar and gold caused by the Fed's bailouts, along with the dollar and other commodities .
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
9
SVB: Announces bankruptcy! The situation at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not particularly complicated. In short, they borrowed short and invested long, mismanaged their liquidity, and caused their own demise. The specific steps were as follows: low-interest deposit-taking, overzealous investment in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), short-term liquidity gaps, forced selling of assets, and market panic. Low-interest deposit-taking: Between 2020 and 2021, due to the Federal Reserve's extended period of 0% interest rates, there was a huge financing boom in the tech industry, with a significant portion of cash flowing into SVB. SVB's deposit liabilities surged from $61.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $189.2 billion at the end of 2021, with interest rates on this portion of deposits only around 0.25%. Overzealous investment in MBS: With so much low-interest money, SVB naturally engaged in carry trade. Typically, banks focus on lending, but SVB invested a large portion of its funds in MBS. Their financial statements showed they held $13.8 billion of MBS at the end of 2019, which had grown to $98.2 billion by the end of 2021. In other words, over 65% of the deposits they took in went towards buying MBS. Short-term liquidity gap: Normally, investing in MBS is not a problem because they can be redeemed at maturity. But SVB's problem was that it held too many MBS and had too few short-term liquid assets. In today's high-interest rate environment, tech companies are struggling to survive and are gradually withdrawing money from their deposits, causing SVB's liquidity pressures to soar. Forced selling of assets: To solve the liquidity problem, management chose the cheapest option, which was to sell their MBS holdings. But now, market interest rates had increased from nearly 0 to 5% for 2-year Treasury bonds, and asset prices had fallen significantly in sync. Selling $21 billion of assets resulted in an $1.8 billion loss. Market panic: For SVB, the $1.8 billion loss was still manageable because their shareholder equity was $16 billion. However, the problem was with the $100 billion of MBS that they had not yet sold. If there was a run on the bank, this could result in a potential loss of $15 billion, causing SVB to go bankrupt. Therefore, there was a great deal of panic in the market, causing the stock price to plummet by 60% in a single day. SVB has now declared bankruptcy, and the US government has intervened. It is being managed by a specialized institution. When a bank of this size collapses, there are bound to be chain reactions. The institutions known to be affected include Circle. For those who invest in stocks, they may not have heard of it, but those who invest in cryptocurrencies certainly have, as the most famous stablecoin, USDC, is issued by Circle. The total amount is $40 billion, and in today's announcement, they revealed that $3.3 billion of their assets were stuck in SVB, accounting for almost 8%. This means that those who invest in cryptocurrencies suddenly find that their $100 has shrunk to $92. To say that it's a seismic event is not an exaggeration. There are likely dozens of institutions of a similar scale to Circle that are also trapped, but for various reasons, they are not disclosing their situation. We'll have to wait and see when they come forward. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
22
Gold or Bitcoin - which is the better hedge for 2023?Short answer, Bitcoin. About the same time last year the question was asked: “Gold or Bitcoin - which is the better hedge for 2022?” The idea is in the link below if interested. Suffice to say, there was Strong divergence, strong buy signals with study from multiply time frames. If you held Gold instead of Bitcoin you would now be in a position to have four times as many Bitcoin today. Am sorry to tell you gold bugs, but 2023 is most definitely not the year to be holding onto the shiny metal. Will publish the reasons elsewhere. On the above daily chart above price action has printed a death cross but is yet to confirm. For confirmation the Gold/Bitcoin ratio needs to print the 200-day SMA as resistance. There is good evidence for this. It is also worth paying attention to the angle of the cross at this time, it is sharp. In the past a low angle has meant both assets tend to follow each other in terms of value. July 2020 below as an example. However the picture for a sharp angle is very different. This is not unique to this asset pair, it can be found many times over many asset types. Ww July 2020 - low angle May 2019 - sharp angle
TVC:XAUBTCLong
by without_worries
80
Will the price of gold continue to rise?The February non-farm payroll data in the United States remained robust, however, the unemployment rate and wage growth slowed, weakening market expectations of a Fed rate hike. The short-term direction of the gold price remains dependent on US economic data, with a focus on next week's CPI report. Technically, the gold price is expected to continue its rebound trend next week. The fundamental outlook for gold: the key remains on US economic data, with a focus on next week's CPI report. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US added 311,000 non-farm jobs in February, lower than the revised figure of 504,000 jobs but far higher than the expected 205,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in February rose to 3.6%, higher than the expected and previous value of 3.4%. Average hourly earnings in February increased by 4.62% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.7%, but higher than the previous value of 4.40%. Although the number of non-farm payroll jobs added in February was significantly higher than expected, the rise in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth have tempered market expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March meeting. At the same time, the market has priced in a significant decline in the terminal rate of the Fed, and expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year have resurfaced. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March is 39.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 60.5%, down from 68.3% and 31.7%, respectively, the day before. Based on federal funds rate futures, the currency market currently expects the Fed's peak rate to reach 5.27% in July, down from the previous expectation of 5.67% in October, and expects the Fed's rate to fall to 4.94% by the end of the year. The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the end of the year. As market expectations of a Fed rate hike have cooled, the US dollar index fell 0.61% to 104.64 on Friday, while the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds plunged by 28 basis points to 4.59% and 21 basis points to 3.70%, respectively. The gold price surged nearly $40 to $1,867 per ounce after a $33 drop on Tuesday. Overall, the February non-farm payroll report still shows that the US labor market remains strong, but some data is beginning to show signs of cooling. Against the backdrop of high interest rates in more than 40 years, the market has made a very sensitive response, and expectations for the Fed's interest rate outlook have quickly weakened, causing the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields to plummet, driving the gold price higher. Finally, the short-term direction of the gold price still depends on the US economic data, and the US CPI report for February, to be released next Tuesday, is particularly important. If the core inflation or detailed data shows signs of a slowdown in inflation, it could push the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields even lower, thereby boosting the gold price. If the data continues to show sticky inflation, the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields may not fall as quickly. Technical Outlook for Gold: Likely to Continue its Upward Trend On the weekly chart, gold rebounded from a significant support area formed by the 100-week moving average and the weekly high of August 8, 2022 (1,807). This week's candle has a relatively long lower shadow, continuing the rebound trend from last week. From the perspective of the trend pattern, the upward momentum of gold is relatively strong, and it is expected to continue its upward trend next week. If the trend does indeed continue to rise, the immediate resistance levels may be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1,899), the weekly low of January 16 (1,897), and the weekly high of February 6 (1,888). On the other hand, if the trend falls back, the market may test the significant support area mentioned above (1,807/1,810) again. However, the specific direction of the trend may still depend on the US CPI data. It is worth noting that if the data does not cause gold to significantly drop, it will help confirm the (1,807/1,810) area as a temporary low point for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Navigation-h
66