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Predicting Crypto's Journey Amid LawsuitsBefore anyone reads this idea, I'd recommend reading my previous two ideas about Coinbase and Grayscale. Definitely worth the read to get a better grasp of the current situation. The main ideas I will analyze are that the SEC suing Coinbase and Binance are the final things that had to happen before a Bitcoin ETF would be approved and that the SEC could lose some of its court battles against crypto companies. Then I will close with some solid technical and fundamental analysis of the current price action. Wall Street Interests and the SEC's Anti-Crypto Native Firms Stance The SEC seems to be trapped, as it has too many court cases open and won't be able to win all of them. It's currently struggling against Coinbase and its demands for clear regulations and, in its case against Grayscale too, which seems to be doing well in court. Against Grayscale and Coinbase, the SEC's cases are very weak. It's clear that the SEC was just stalling everything and damaging the US industry in the short to medium term so that the TradFi guys could take control. Now they've reached their limit, as the industry is coming together and attacking it en mass. The political pressure against the SEC has been mounting, which is why Blackrock has filed for its Bitcoin ETF. It's no coincidence that TradFi firms are coming out after the recent lawsuits and talking about how they want to get involved. The CFTC approved futures related products for Coinbase and the Cboe, confirming that other major players might want to be engaged at a higher level. Essentially it's not the SEC being anti-crypto; it's just the SEC being anti-crypto native firms and wanting to pave the way for Wall Street. Securities, Market Manipulation, and the Complexities of SEC Approval What's been super clear is that BTC isn't a commodity; however, for an ETF to be approved, the SEC had to deal with all shady exchanges and practices in the US. It would be impossible for them not to have dealt with Binance before approving an ETF. To me, it's clear that many of the services Coinbase and Binance are offering are securities, and it's also been clear that Binance has done many shady things in the past. The main issues for the SEC to approve an ETF would be that these exchanges would be trading securities along with Bitcoin, and market manipulation or an FTX-like collapse would create many issues. What is positive for Coinbase and Binance, though, despite my opinion about what is a security and what is not, is that the SEC approved of Coinbase's business model before it went public and that to this day, it still doesn't offer clear guidance for crypto firms. Anticipated SEC Lawsuits and the Impact on Coinbase and Binance Something significant to note is that nothing that has happened with Coinbase and Binance wasn't expected. We've had so much news about the SEC potentially suing both that it was almost priced in. Alts clearly got shocked, and they might feel even more pain if the SEC wins against Ripple, as some will probably be deemed securities. Yet beyond that, I don't think the SEC will get everything it wants. It has failed so spectacularly that the US judges won't be able to give it all it wants. It might have some wins, but overall, there is no way that it can damage the US industry too much. Of course, it can deal substantial damage; however, even if the SEC itself can't, the big players behind Blackrocks ETF might find other ways to shake out the weak hands before taking the market higher. The Dawn of a New Era: A Turning Point in Crypto Regulations It appears that we've reached a turning point in crypto regulations. It's unlikely that regulations could get any worse from here, which is a positive sign for the market. We're currently facing an environment with almost no significant regulatory risks, only potential regulatory upsides. The crypto market has demonstrated incredible resilience, adapting and evolving in ways that make it less susceptible to regulatory hindrances. The SEC is under increasing pressure to clarify its stance on crypto regulations, while other countries are stepping up and providing more precise guidelines, attracting a growing number of crypto businesses. This trend fosters the expansion of exchanges outside the US and the development of more favorable regulations for the crypto space. In my opinion, we will have regulatory clarity in the US by the end of the year. An Outlook on the Crypto Market: Positive and Negative Factors Some positives are 1. China is pumping liquidity into its economy, and as Hong Kong has just opened its doors to crypto, some of that liquidity will flow into crypto, 2. Celsius might convert alts into BTC and ETH (directing liquidity to these two), 3. Voyager distributing cash to creditors (some will go back into crypto), 4. FTX 2.0 is in the cards, which means that 2B USD could come back to the market, along with several altcoins that could be converted into BTC & ETH (FTX & Alameda don't have much BTC or ETH). Some potential negatives are 1. Mt.Gox, Bitfinex & US Gov distributing/selling their BTC, 2. Bankrupt companies selling their coins/tokens, 3. Gemini/DCG going bankrupt and forced to be liquidated, 4. More lawsuits and losing court battles, 5. Stock market collapse. Uncertain Stock Market Conditions and Crypto Performance Number 5 is something I would like to clarify here, as stocks may have topped. Nothing is certain, but we need to be aware of the situation. Yesterday we had a Triple Witching (a term used in the stock market to describe the simultaneous expiration of three different types of derivative contracts, namely stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options, all on the same trading day. This happens four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.), and we will have a three-day weekend. This is the perfect setting for a top, especially as SPX has hit SPX hit 4450 and my BBs with STD 3 upper band, Nasdaq swept its Q1 2022 highs, and Russell 3000 the breakdown zone, while all are extremely overbought. Yields keep going higher, as Oil, Natural Gas, Wheat, Corn, etc. show strength, which could push rates and the dollar higher, and therefore risk assets could have a dip. Finally, based on some sentiment-related data, we could be close to an extreme point in stock prices. In my opinion, this is not the time to take excessive risks but the time to take profits on stocks. That doesn't mean crypto will collapse, as crypto has been underperforming for months and usually moves along with stocks. Therefore, if it were to simply catch up with tech stocks, 33k would be an easy target. The best way to express bullishness in the long term is to bet on BTC, ETH, GBTC, and COIN, and I would avoid any other coins for now. Technical Analysis GBTC had a massive collapse, its discount was near 50% (relative to BTC), and it rallied to fill a major gap. Filled the gap, had a correction, retested the breakout zone, bottomed there, and is now going up. If someone buys GBTC here, they will make 75% extra on their trade when that discount closes relative to how much they would have made by simply holding BTC. BITO was down 25%. Partially filled an FVG on a gap down and bottomed there. It has several gaps to fill higher, but only a few lower. The gaps higher are pretty important, as some of them are double/triple gaps (gaps within gaps), making them more critical. BTC and ETH on CME have some important gaps higher that could be acting like magnets, but both are at resistance now. BTC is at the horizontal and Fibonacci pivot resistance combo, while ETH is testing its critical breakdown zone. Overall, Bitcoin has some double/triple tops higher or FVGs, which is liquidity ready to be tapped. However, that holds for levels lower too. The most important levels right now are 27500, 30000, 33000, 35300, and 37500 to the upside and 22600, 21000, 18500, 14000, and 12500 to the downside. Bitcoin seems to have formed the perfect bottom after it formed two double bottoms, one at 25800 and one at 25350, both of which got broken slowly, and the final leg down hit the 25200 breakout zone. It actually fell below 25000, which was a round number, and trapped shorts, which thought the break below 25000 would be very bearish. Finally, it also seems to be within a massive falling wedge, but it's unclear which direction it will take. There is a potential trap in either direction, so I wouldn't want to read too much into it. My view is that someone should respect all the levels I have mentioned and potentially take profits or place entries for short to medium-term trades on them.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
15
Bitcoin Halving Fib EstimationHere we're dealing with fib levels derived from macro low & high price levels, specifically covering historic ATH levels. Log scale on because we put emphasis on chart-based A/D in percentages. Identifying critical points of fractal starting from times of eye-catching volatility and perceptible cycles. We start with fib coverage of ATHs chronologically: 1st pair interconnected: Added layer of 2nd pair interconnected: Covid low - current ATH interconnectedness: Zeroing in -77% drop: Since we care about reducing subjectiveness in Fractal Analysis, we must place Fibonacci Channels on pin point accuracy (0;1). It is done so because of various concepts considering irrational market, uncertainty and assumption that nobody can be always right predicting market with regular TA. Since popular TA is already used among millions of traders, we definitely can't be competitive if we stick to common knowledge of standard wave counts, etc. Fractal analysis summarizes collective market in terms of interconnectedness of the whole structure with composite short and long term cycles. Here we care about if the Golden Rule behind the waves allows for any desired move. Since human nature and decision making even outside of trading is determined by golden rule (bench experiment, DNA, proportion of body and organs). Knowing that Fibs are pleasing proportion for a consciousness. We can use this rule against the market since we're dealing with mass consciousness. Activity of which will draw patterns in respect to those proportions anyway. So our task is to expose the levels derived from actual structure to which price has reacted throughout the history. That way fibonacci is tuned into the chaotic nature of the market, hence-fore it is capable of determining key price levels of support and resistance without use of subjective measurements. It doesn't yet mean this is the only tools I use for trading. This just something I consider for long-term perspective derived from historic structure. Just like in QM, we can't tell the exact location of particle, but we can tell the probability where it most likely might end up. In FA probability of levels is priced at fibs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
168
Will AI workloads consume all the world’s energy?On big questions like this, almost nothing stays constant. When we consider a new technology: We cannot assume that rates of adoption or usage will remain constant—they may drop, they may even grow. We cannot assume that the technology supplying our energy needs will remain constant—there could be breakthroughs in efficiency or changes in the overall energy mix. We cannot assume that the efficiency of the specific technology being adopted will remain constant—we have seen numerous examples of areas where an initial version of something in technology or software faces subsequent improvements that may give it greater capabilities with lower energy usage. We must also recognise that artificial intelligence (AI) itself could suggest improvements in energy efficiency for specific applications—like the heating and cooling of a building. Therefore, any analysis of energy usage and AI must recognise that the one constant will be change. Environmental impact of select large language models (LLMs) LLMs have been garnering the lion’s share of attention amidst the current excitement around generative AI. It makes sense to consider the amount of carbon emissions generated by some of these systems. The Stanford AI Index Report, published in 2023, provided some data, noting that factors like the number of parameters in a model, the power usage effectiveness1 of a data centre, and the grid carbon intensity all matter. Considering power consumption of an LLM Those building different LLMs have many levers they can pull in order to influence different characteristics, like energy consumption. Google researchers proposed a family of language models named GLaM (Generalist Language Model), which uses a ‘sparsely activated mixture of experts’. While a full discussion of how that type of approach works is beyond the scope of this piece, we note that the largest of the GLaM models has 1.2 trillion parameters. Knowing solely that data point, the assumption would be that this model would consume more energy than any of the models. In reality, the GLaM model with 1.2 trillion parameters consumes only one-third of the energy required to train GPT-3 and requires only half of the computation flops for inference operations. A simple way to think of what is going on is that, while the total model has 1.2 trillion parameters, a given input token into the GLaM model is only activating a maximum of 95 billion parameters, that is, the entire model isn’t active across all the parameters. GPT-3, on the other hand, activated all 175 billion parameters on each input token3. It is notable that, even if measuring the performance of AI models occurs on many dimensions, by many measures the GLaM model is able to outperform GPT-3 as well4. Conclusion The bottom line is that model design matters, and if model designers want to denote ways to maintain performance but use less energy, they have many options. Sources 1 Power usage effectiveness (PUE) is useful in evaluating the energy efficiency of data centres in a standard way. PUE = (total amount of energy used by a computer data centre facility) / (energy delivered to computer equipment). A higher PUE means that the data centre is less efficient. 2 Source: Du et al. “GLaM: Efficient Scaling of Language Models with Mixture-of-Experts.” ARXIV.org. 1 August 2022. 3 Source: Patterson, David; Gonzalez, Joseph; Hölzle, Urs; Le, Quoc Hung; Liang, Chen; Munguia, Lluis-Miquel; et al. (2022): The Carbon Footprint of Machine Learning Training Will Plateau, Then Shrink. TechRxiv. 4 Source: Du et al, 1 August 2022.
SPARKS:AIX
by aneekaguptaWTE
9
The AI led correctionI still believe a correction is coming and I believe tech will outperform to the downside once again. In the video I look at various megacap stocks and show how many of them are at important resistance levels. Could we sell off and go higher anyway? Yes. Could we ignore all of these indicators and levels and just blow up through them? Yes, possible but not likely. For me, this is an area to accumulate shorts on tech, but not everyone is going to agree with it. Technically it makes sense and I believe with all the constant AI talk, psychologically it makes sense as well. Good luck!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by the_sunship
39
Artificial intelligence: signs of acceleration in 2023“One final investment area that I’ll mention, that’s core to setting Amazon up to invent in every area of our business for many decades to come, and where we’re investing heavily, is Large Language Models (“LLMs”) and Generative AI. Machine learning has been a technology with high promise for several decades, but it’s only been the last five to ten years that it’s started to be used more pervasively by companies. This shift was driven by several factors, including access to higher volumes of compute capacity at lower prices than was ever available. Amazon has been using machine learning extensively for 25 years, employing it in everything from personalised ecommerce recommendations, to fulfillment center pick paths, to drones for Prime Air, to Alexa, to the many machine learning services AWS offers (where AWS has the broadest machine learning functionality and customer base of any cloud provider). More recently, a newer form of machine learning, called Generative AI, has burst onto the scene and promises to significantly accelerate machine learning adoption.” Amazon.com CEO Andy Jassy1 When Amazon’s CEO makes such a statement, we pay attention. In 1997, Amazon.com had revenues of $147.8 million; in 2022, this figure was $434 billion for Amazon’s consumer business. Amazon Web Services was conceptualised in 2003, with the first services launched in 2006 and, in 2022, generated $80 billion in revenues. Elsewhere, The Stanford AI Index Steering Committee, Institute for Human-Centered AI (one of the best annual resources on artificial intelligence), have also just released a new report. Artificial intelligence (AI) is, undoubtedly, a big topic in 2023, and this report provides an excellent resource for understanding how it is progressing. The full piece is almost 400 pages, but we wanted to highlight some key points. ChatGPT was not the only big AI development of 2022 On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT was launched, but the Stanford AI Index report helps us remember other notable events in 2022. Our 5 favourites: February 16, 2022: DeepMind trained a reinforcement learning agent to control nuclear fusion plasma in a tokamak2. While this doesn’t mean that fusion powerplants are immediately around the corner, it does show a notable use case for AI to help scientific research in a very, very difficult area. April 5, 2022: Google released its PaLM large language model with 540 parameters. This was an important step, showing that one avenue to improve the performance of these models was to simply train them on more data. As of this writing, we do not know how this figure compares to the number of parameters in use for OpenAI’s GPT-4. May 12, 2022: DeepMind showcased Gato, which is a model that can generalise across such activities as: robotic manipulation, game player, image captioning, and natural language generation. June 21, 2022: GitHub makes Copilot available as a subscription-based service for individual developers. Copilot is a generative AI system that can turn natural language prompts into coding suggestions across multiple languages. July 8, 2022: Nvidia uses reinforcement learning to design better-performing GPUs, accelerating the performance of its latest H100 class of GPU chips. Insights on global corporate investment AI has been one of the hottest areas for corporate investment, but Figure 1 shows the total level of investment shifted downwards, from $276.14 billion to a level of $189.59 billion in 2022 with the market volatility. The two biggest categories comprising the level of AI investment recently has been ‘Merger/Acquisition’ and ‘Private Investment.’ Both of these categories dropped significantly from 2021 to 2022, but this is not surprising in that both of these would be expected to slow in a less certain economic environment with the US Federal Reserve quickly raising the cost of capital. One of the most informative charts in the 400-page report is the specific focal areas of investment, and how they have changed. ‘Medical & Healthcare’ was the biggest focal area in 2022, after being second biggest in 2021, trailing only ‘Data Management, Processing and Cloud.’ ‘Cybersecurity, Data Protection’ was the fourth biggest investment area in 2022 and the largest that saw an acceleration in investment, meaning investment in 2022 was actually larger than in 2021. The Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022 created a big focus on cybersecurity. There is little question, the first four months of 2023 have seen a massive focus on AI, and a massive focus usually leads to at least some hype and some risk of near-term overvaluation. Sometimes this is the nature of thematic investment—we all want something to get excited about, especially if economic growth and geopolitics are less positive. What is emphasised in the letter from Amazon.com CEO, Andy Jassy, and then measured in the 2023 Stanford AI Index report, is that the AI megatrend is continuing to grow and increase in its impact on society and on businesses. Sources 1 Source: aboutamazon andy-jassy-2022-letter-to-shareholders 2 A tokamak, put simply, is somewhat of a doughnut in shape and is a device used to contain the plasma in a fusion reaction.
SPARKS:AIX
by aneekaguptaWTE
14
Tesla – a momentum juggernaut with AI qualities We’ve just seen Tesla push higher for a 13th straight day and signs are it could rally for a 14th. This is obviously an incredible run of form, especially as there simply haven’t been any positive earnings revisions – however, earning aside, investors have seen a 70% return since May (110% YTD), and the stock is hot, but is it too hot? Fundamentally, we’ve seen positive tailwinds from the news that GM and Ford are moving their EVs to utilise Tesla’s Supercharger, as well as tax breaks for owners of the Model 3. Tesla is seen foremost as an AI business Arguably, the key fundamental reason is the market treating Tesla as an AI business, rather than a high-tech EV/auto business. Importantly, Tesla is not the only auto business evolving like this and buying chips from Nvidia, but they have first movers’ advantage and traders like the liquidity and ease at which they can trade the flow – either through direct equity or through optionality. Recent intel shows Tesla is buying Nvidia chips for their data centres, and as they strive to improve the safety and reliability of their autonomous cars, Nvidia’s chips help train their models and increase computing processing capabilities. There has been investor focus on the demand for Nvidia’s chips that are central to the evolution that is playing out in ‘Software-Defined Vehicles’ – Tesla first pioneered this scene in 2012, but now Nvidia is helping to take this forward. This article explains it well (www2.deloitte.com) but the idea of having a chip in a centralised computer that can be upgraded – just as a phone can, will appeal to many. In theory, it will only increase the vehicle’s performance and offer the user greater comforts without expensive purchases and trips to the garage. It seems the market is being educated on this now. Momentum is a clear driving force Aside from the AI tailwinds, there is an out-and-out momentum play here. Traders want to buy what is strong and then ultimately sell at higher levels. The options crowd buy upside calls (slightly out-of-the-money) and as the price moves higher options dealers (who sold the calls) must hedge their exposure – they do that by buying Tesla’s stock and this just perpetuates the move higher. There is also limited supply, with few looking to sell. I see some technicians screaming that Tesla has an RSI of 88, suggesting an imminent collapse. To me, it suggests the risk/reward trade-off is certainly turning and putting new money to work at these levels carries a higher risk. One can buy and hope it kicks further but be quick to cut any loss. Shorting has hurt and many will want higher conviction in the price action to reload. Of course, at some stage, a fraction of the fast-money players will bank some profits, and that is where the opportunity is for the short sellers, especially the day traders - if the algo’s sense the sellers are finally out there then it may see a more protracted sell-off. Personally, I would stay with the momentum and look to buy weakness – the market still has more to explore on the AI front. PS analyst - Chris Weston
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Pepperstone
8
CNHJPY - Massive SHORT!! The pair that just keeps on giving ...... and giving, and then give some more. Should one lack the inclination to deal with everyday FX volatility (or with the lack thereof) then this is the pair to be SHORT , in George Foreman style, ala; "Just set it and forget it!" Simply put, China's absolute best hope (just a dream, really) to survive it's oncoming demographic (industrial, deurbanization, and ... ) collapse to somehow muddle through one of it's worst decade and a half well under way, to transition through total "Japanification". (This is only a hope, requiring lots and lots of luck to pull it off.) This is undeniably China's best possible future scenario, all else being a far inferior outcome. Consequently, as Japan is snapping out of it's 30 year slumber just as China "hopes" to achieve Japanification, this pair (provided any future convertibility of the Yuan) will mirror that process, obviously like no other. E.g. SELL it (Short) for good! (through about 2035 and possibly beyond.) Here is the Weekly; SHORT it anywhere here! p.s. The scenario outlined in the main (monthly) chart is only a near-term outlook (12-15 months out), severely understating the potential ultimate (Short) mileage in this pair.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
36
SPY Trading at the "Make or Break" zone into CPI, FOMC, & OPEXIt is always amazing to see how the market ends up being at extremely important technical levels into big weeks like the week coming up. SPY is trading at the previous support zone from before the bear market started which ended up being a reversal zone in August and price is now here again. With CPI data, the FOMC decision, and OPEX into the end of the week, this is a very important technical level to get above which is currently right at $431.75.
AMEX:SPY
by JakeWuMarketResearch
18
Earn $100 each time your ideas and scripts make Editors' Picks!Our community thrives thanks to the fantastic contributors who openly share their knowledge, experience, successes, and let’s be honest, even their failures. Our social network is what it is today because of you, the trader or investor, who connects with others, writes insightful comments, and publishes openly and freely. 🙌 For all these wonderful reasons, we're now rewarding ideas and scripts with $100 cash each time they're selected to Editors' Picks! Yup, you read that right - we're making sure the best content creators earn rewards for their contributions. ❤️❤️❤️ Here's the scoop: when your idea or script is featured in Editors' Picks, you'll earn $100. If several of your publications are chosen, you’ll be paid for each one. There is no limit to how many times your ideas or scripts can be picked and all trading styles, methodologies, strategies, and experience levels are welcome. Payments will be distributed at the end of each month. We'll be using PayPal to reward members and we'll also be sending direct messages from our official TradingView account to you. If you're idea or script is selected, check your messages at the end of the month! 😄 Please keep in mind that our editorial teams will be evaluating ideas thoroughly. In addition, this program is only open to our global English community . So, before you rush to publish ideas, be sure to check out the links below to learn more about how this program works: 👉 Read our official Help Center documentation about this program 👉 Check out these guidelines for creating awesome ideas 👉 Be sure to double check our House Rules! This pilot program is another step towards content monetization and rewarding our community. It builds upon some of our other releases including TradingView Coins , Refer-a-Friend awards , and our Wizards program . Keep an eye out for more updates on this program. If you have any questions, our support team is always ready to help. Look first, then share! The TradingView Team
NASDAQ:PYPL
by TradingView
69
MATIC: Major Lawsuits and the Long-Term TrendPrimary Chart: Monthly chart of MATIC (Polygon) with Monthly Four-Year Uptrend Fundamental Issues Arising from Recent SEC Legal Actions Significant fundamental concerns have been brewing relating to Polygon / MATIC. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is the primary securities regulator in the US that handles securities registration, enforcement, and efficiency of capital markets. The SEC has recently named 13 securities that it alleges to be unregistered securities including the subject altcoin. This came as part of this agency's enforcement action (lawsuits) against Binance Holdings Limited, Changpeng Zhao, et al., as well as its action against Coinbase, Inc and Coinbase Global, Inc., essentially the Coinbase exchange. The SEC alleges defendants' "blatant disregard of federal securities laws and the investor and market protections these laws provide." Section 5 of the Exchange Act requires entities meeting the definition of exchange to register with the SEC as a national securities exchange under the Exchange Act unless exempted. Similarly, broker-dealers are required to register with the SEC under the Exchange Act as well, 11 U.S.C. § 78o(a)(a) (typically, broker dealers are defined as persons engaged in the business of effecting transactions in securities on the account of others). And offering and selling unregistered securities is also a major violation of the securities laws that carries severe legal consequences. Coinbase Inc., for example, is alleged to have never registered with the SEC as a broker, national securities exchange, or clearing agency. Accordingly, the SEC argues that Coinbase has unlawfully "evaded the disclosure regime" that federal law provides for securities markets. All these legal actions depend on on a pivotal concept: whether the crypto assets involved are securities. Broker-dealers by definition effect transactions in securities , so determining whether crypto assets are securities is a vital prerequisite to determining whether the defendants unlawfully effected transactions in securities on the account of others. Similarly, the registration requirement for exchanges depends on entities meeting the definition of exchange, which requires that the exchange constitute, maintain or provide a market for buyers / sellers of securities . If none of the crypto assets are deemed securities, then much (if not all) of the enforcement action would fail. Conversely if any one of the crypto assets is deemed a security, then the enforcement action would succeed at least in part. Further, if the altcoins are legally held to be unregistered securities, then the exchanges may have unlawfully failed to register as exchanges, which registration comes with heavy disclosure requirements, and defendants may be liable for engaging in multiple unregistered offers and sales of crypto assets deemed as securities as well as other illegal schemes. Further panic has been arising from derivative effects of these actions. To illustrate, reports have also circulated that Robinhood, a widely used trading platform for retail, has been "delisting" (dropping from its platform) major crypto tokens, although SquishTrade will recommend readers research this issue further for confirmation. Even if such reports were not correct, they instill panic, and their effects plainly follow from the legal actions. This discussion of fundamentals are presented solely for context . This post will not delve into further detail about the litigation nor will it discuss whether the legal actions are well grounded in fact or law. No speculation will be raised as to the probable legal outcome or ramifications of a particular adverse judgment against any crypto exchange defendant. Instead, the focus will remain on price, which is the best and most efficient processor of all fundamental information available. It's not always efficient and timely, but it is likely faster processor of all fundamental information than the best research team on the planet. Technical Analysis Focused on Longer-Term Trends Polygon (MATIC) has fallen over -32% in the past 10 days since June 1, 2023. Since the swing high in February 2023, MATIC has plummeted approximately –67.55%. The recent sharp downdraft in various altcoins may appear formidable, p and befuddling especially to those focused on intraday or even daily time frames, i.e., trends of much smaller degree than the ones shown here. Further, with leverage or oversized positions, a position traders may be stunned and unable to manage their positions. This would be true even for an experienced trader who had the foresight and discipline to buy the December 2022 lows ($.75) who may still be significantly underwater at this point if profits were not taken in a strategic or programmatic way. However, longer-term investors / position traders in this Ethereum-based Polygon network may do well to zoom out somewhat given the news. Doing so, they might discover that the very long-term trend remains higher in Polygon. Consider the 4-year uptrend line on the Primary Chart above. It hasn't been touched since November 2020. Furthermore, the long-term Fibonacci retracement levels (logarithmic only) show that even the shallowest of the widely followed levels has held as support since the peak in December 2021. The shallowest retracement level, Fibonacci .236 proportion, is shown below in Supplementary Chart A at $.53. Supplementary Chart A The next shallowest level is the Fibonacci .382 retracement (again on the highest degree of trend available here), which falls at $.19, also shown in magenta on Supplementary Chart A above and Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Of course, uptrends frequently retrace to .50 and .618 retracements as well. This could take MATIC to significantly lower levels shown in gold and green lines on the Primary Chart above. But discussing such distant Fibonacci support levels under .085 might be getting a bit ahead of where price action trades now. As shown on the Primary Chart, the uptrend line for 4 years has not been tagged since November 2021. This is not to say that it won't be. SEC enforcement actions are not to be taken lightly by investors or the defendants. A couple more long-term technical levels that are more dynamic should be mentioned. Supplementary Chart C shows an both an anchored VWAP from the all-time high and an all-time low (based on available data for Matic Network / TetherUS). Notice how the major low of 2022 tagged the anchored VWAP from April 2019 where the data begins on the chart. And MATIC's price found resistance at the VWAP anchored to the all-time high repeatedly, with one false break above it, confirming this level as strong resistance. So a trend-based analysis based on volume-weighted average price tells us that price remains in sideways consolidation within a very long-term uptrend—at least until price breaks and holds below the VWAP from the all-time low . Supplementary Chart C No one knows what will happen if price arrives at this uptrend line, but many trend-based traders and investors look for risk-defined entries at very long-term trendline support, with tight risk at / near the line itself to play for a sizeable bounce at a minimum or even a resumption of the larger-degree trend higher. But if the trendline is invalidated, the risk will have been kept small. Managing risk is vital since no one can say with certainty whether a trend will resume or whether it will resume at the trendline where it resumed after past countertrend moves. The same can be said for the key Fibonacci levels, each one providing a trend-based investor or analyst with another pivot to watch for support where a countertrend retracement may end and the shorter term trends realign with the longer-term trend. Does this longer-term trend provide absolute reassurance, a guarantee of sorts, that many nervous crypto investors want concerning whether this long-term trend will remain intact? No. In fact, no such guarantees exist in financial markets—this holds true regardless of whether one is bullish, bearish or non-directional / neutral. The aphorism in trading and investing is to make the trend your friend until the end, when it bends. Even long-term trends break, adjust, change, or reverse. To illustrate, consider that the upward trendline shown on the primary chart (monthly) could be broken and reconstituted if monetary policy continues to remain tight (or even to whipsaw as some argue). This may not mean a trend reversal on this very high degree of trend, it may just mean that the trend continues albeit at a less steep slope. Trends with steeper slopes have a tendency to be broken more easily than trends with less steep slopes (in downtrends or uptrends). This may be a result in part of the mean-reverting nature of price action on all time frames, from the shortest to the longest. In technical analysis, trend continuation should be favored over trend reversal. Further, when bullish trend-based supports are reached, no one ever feels that good about going long because the news has been awful to get price down to that level. And here, the term "trend" refers to the 4-year trend shown on the Primary Chart, which may be deemed an extended primary trend (which typically fall between 6 months and two years but can extend longer) or even a secular trend given its duration. In short, if a countertrend move is occurring, traders and investors should consider it more likely for the trend to continue than for it to reverse on this time frame and degree of trend. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell MATIC. Instead, this is an attempt at an objective conversation about longer-term trends in this altcoin in light of recent regulatory lawsuits involving whether it may be an unregistered security as held on most exchanges. SquishTrade at the time of writing holds no position in MATIC or any MATIC derivative. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
M
by SquishTrade
33
Nasdaq Bull Trap StudyIntroduction I lost a lot of money when I began trading in 2018, and truth be told I have not made it all back yet. For years I blew up accounts not being able to recognize bull traps and properly set my stop losses (or take profits) and I engaged in a lot of capital destruction. As such I have spent a lot of time trying to make sure I don’t destroy more of my capital in trading another bull trap. The real question for myself is “Have I become vigilant (seeing what is there), or hyper-vigilant (seeing what is not there). Analysis This is a simple application of support and resistance. What was support flips and becomes resistance. But, because we suspect there may be a bull trap we are looking for a potential fake out. So the resistance may look like it is going to fail. In this case the star indicator is the gaussian channel. We are looking for it to act as support and then flip to resistance. But as the gaussian channel flips to resistance it might look like it will fail and the bullish trend will continue. That is what we see on our main chart. Price has popped out of a red gaussian channel and so some people may be bullish and expect continued upside. They may be doing fib extensions to the upside as part of their targeting. For this idea, the Keltner channels is along for the ride. Price pushed the Keltner channel up for the impulse and now I expect to see the top of the kelter acting as resistance on the way down. Due to the speed of the moves we can see the same thing happening in the 2017-2018 topping formation for bitcoin on Ethereum, but this time on the daily charts. Eth Example Two bull traps The main chart is on the weekly timeframe but we are looking at Eth and Bitcoin on the daily. With this set up the Gaussian channel was able to turn green again, once again selling the bull trap. The indicator was green and for the past several years that was suggesting continuation to the upside. But price broke down and the channels acted as resistance until ETH met a major target at the 1.618 extension. Bitcoin Example of Two bull traps In the case of Bitcoin with the first bull trap we set up a longer-term consolidation pattern that had people calling for saucer reversals, cup and handles, etc. Signs of green we seen as potential for more upside while more experienced traders were calling for more downside. Topping in select Equities Amazon Tesla Microsoft Lulu Meta (might actually have some more upside potential Final Thoughts & what I am doing The equities markets move relatively slow compared to crypto and if bitcoin was able to create a long consolidation structure (ascending triangle) it is not beyond reason to think that the NASDAQ or other indexes cannot either. Bear market rallies are often hard to predict and lead to lots of shorter/options traders loosing money because they did not close their shorts in the money. I am biased short in the short term. I have one long that I think will be profitable but when that has reached a target I am only shorting. I don’t want to deal with the complexities of having both longs and shorts. It can really hurt your head. My main trade is merely holding my MATIC short until it hits the monthly SAR. Somehow Bitcoin, despite all of the negativity, looks to be in the early stages of a bull market. Maybe we will see bitcoin steal some money away from the Nasdaq rather than having both plunge.
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
78
Bitcoin Barely Touches SupportSome interesting news developments have transpired related to Bitcoin this week. On Monday, The SEC sued Binance with 13 charges. On Tuesday, The SEC sued Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN . The regulators have been busy this week going after the biggest crypto exchanges. It's almost as if we need a monetary system outside of government interference... What does this mean for traders and investors right now? In the context of 2023’s price action the fallout from these announcements is insignificant and completely in line with technical analysis. I have been watching for this pullback in theory since the last buying opportunity in March to see where and when the rally off the Banking Crisis FUD did its first major Retracement. The financial media focused on Bitcoin attributed the rise from early March to people putting faith in Bitcoin above the US Dollar system. The salient point that they all miss was that in the event of a market risk shock Bitcoin fell as a risk asset. I’ve had the level 25280 marked since the high at the top of the FOMO hype rally following Balaji Srinivasan’s Twitter “bet” that Bitcoin was going to $1,000,000 in 3 months. It would have been more profitable for people if he had made this buy call in March (as I did with less narrative flare) but it really came in the moment of the 5th Eliot wave when the latecomers are looking for a reason to chase and make such fluff go viral. Srinivasan still has 24 days to be correct… who knows? This week’s news dip missed my marked level (and alert) by $51. It could still hit but because it was so close I am making this update post. I must stress how key this Support level is to the 2023 trend. Just as a breakout from the Ichimoku cloud followed by momentum confirmation signaled the year’s bull run… the opposite signal should be taken as its end. At this point in time and price should that level 25280 be breached by closing a few days below the 2023 trend would be over. However, as the reaction is currently bullish, the price is still likely to climb to retest the 30k range. Trade wisely.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by norok
30
🐂📈 Seizing the Double Bottom: GBPUSD Bulls Ready to Charge! Our journey begins with the formation of a double bottom pattern, a powerful reversal pattern signaling a shift in market sentiment. Now, as price prepares to break the neckline, a prime opportunity arises to enter a long position with a tight stop loss. Keep a close watch for inside bar breakouts, where candlestick patterns offer a clear entry signal. Adding strength to this setup, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) are acting as solid support levels, with a potential crossover imminent. This convergence of technical indicators reinforces the security of our bullish thesis. But that's not all! Yesterday's bullish news on Sterling has further strengthened the probability of a bullish scenario. The release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revealed positive figures, indicating a robust economic performance for the UK. This positive development adds to the fundamental support for a potential rally in GBPUSD. Profit targets are a crucial aspect of any successful trade. In this case, I suggest taking partial profits when price reaches the neckline, located at 1.24500. This level holds significance and may introduce some resistance. However, our ultimate target aligns with the completion of a harmonic bat pattern, specifically point D, projected to be around 1.25200. Harmonic patterns offer valuable insights into potential price movements, enhancing the probability of a successful trade. Keeping an eye on the broader picture, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) further bolsters our bullish stance. Breaking above the 50 level and sustaining around this zone, the RSI indicates a continuation of the rally, supporting the case for an upward move. So, join the bullish ride and seize this exciting opportunity on GBPUSD! Dont forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful 🐂📈💪
Long
by Thomas_Zito
25
USD buyers ready to test resistance again?Today's focus: USD Index Pattern – Continuation Possible targets – 105.60 Support – 103.40 Resistance – 104.20 Today’s update is on the USD index. Do we have a new uptrend? For us, we want to see resistance beaten. If we can see a break, this could set up a new move to 105.60 and a break of that level take price out of its consolidation range and gets an uptrend going. For now, we have a short-term up trend, but buyers have more work to do to confirm it overall. If we see a new retracement, we want to see support hold. A move back to 102.70 is a worry if you’re on the short-term bull side. With momentum back in the buyer’s court, will we see a break of resistance? Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Eightcap
10
USD/CAD: Consolidation Calm Before the Storm? The USD/CAD has been consolidating since late last Friday. Key levels include 1.346 and 1.345 for the upper bound and 1.341 and 1.340 for the lower bound. The market appears to be in the middle of the storm that might be unleashed after the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. In January, the BoC made history by being the first major global central bank to stop its rate-hiking cycle and has kept rates unchanged at its last two policy meetings. However, the economy's unexpectedly robust performance since then has placed the bank in a challenging position and will test its determination to maintain a neutral stance. After declining from its peak at 8.1% in 2022, inflation in Canada unexpectedly experienced its first increase in 10 months, surging to 4.4% in April from 4.3% in March. The increase is being attributed to the recent rebound in Canada's housing market. The current market consensus is for an approximately 40% to 45% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike on Wednesday. According to some, this is underestimating the possibility of a rate hike. Which means that the lower bounds of the current consolidation band could easily be tested (and broken) in the lead up to the interest rate decision. On the other side of the trade, the US dollar faced obstacles as it was revealed that the US services sector experienced minimal growth in May, primarily due to a slowdown in new orders. This news brought an end to the initial surge in the USD, which was triggered by incredibly robust job growth.
by BlackBull_Markets
3
Has CN50 turned positive?CHN50 - 24h expiry Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 12420 level. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. We look to Buy at 12420 (stop at 12310) Our profit targets will be 12730 and 13180 Resistance: 12790 / 13180 / 13660 Support: 12400 / 11845 / 11140 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
2
Carnival Pushes a Key LevelCarnival has been stuck in the doldrums since last summer, but now some traders may think it’s ready to cruise higher. The first pattern on today’s chart is Friday’s last price of $12.18. While the level was slightly below February’s peak, it was the highest weekly close in a year. That could make traders expect a breakout if CCL manages to inch further upward. Second, there could be signs of longer-term bottoming since last summer. The stock initially held its pandemic levels from March 2020 before proceeding to a new multidecade low near $6. It then made a series of higher monthly lows (marked in blue). Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in February and has remained there since. Finally, the debt ceiling has been resolved. Federal Reserve officials like Patrick Harker and Phillip Jefferson have also spoken in favor of leaving rates unchanged next week. That kind of macro environment may favor leveraged cyclicals like CCL. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:CCL
by TradeStation
4
Despite a strong week, IWM remains in trading rangePrimary Chart: IWM / Russell 2000 Weekly Timeframe The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. This is why the Russell 2000 is important for traders and investors to follow to maintain a deeper understanding of the broader US equity markets. Despite a very strong weekly close for IWM, its price remains in the lower half of its trading range. This trading range has contained price for the past 1.5 years, since the topping pattern's support (at the upper blue rectangle) broke down in January 2022. Unlike other major US indices like the Nasdaq 100, IWM has continued to struggle and remains well below its August 2022 and January / February 2023 highs. Two months ago, in a recent post titled " Something is Rotten in the State of Markets ," IWM's underperformance of SPX provided a basis for discussion as to why US equity markets may remain unhealthy despite the bullish price action YTD (see link below). A strong and long-lasting bull market should show signs of broad participation. Many breadth indicators have shown very narrow breadth. It's not a surprise, in fact, that SPX's rally and upside performance has been driven by 5 to 10 SPX names, with the other 490-495 flat, lagging, or up weakly. Supplementary Chart A This previous April 10 analysis displayed a hypothetical price path intended to reflect the possibility of more sideways and choppy price action in the intermediate term. The choppy price action has largely unfolded as expected (click the play / refresh arrow on the prior post from April 10, 2023). In fact, IWM's price at the time of the prior post was at $173.89, and a month later on May 8 it had closed almost at the same level around $172.72. Now IWM appears to be breaking above the recent trading range. Major levels of resistance appear on the Primary Chart as Fibonacci levels (the .618 retracement and the .50 retracement, which is not technically a Fibonacci proportion) as well as the anchored VWAP from the November 2021 ATH. How price responds to these levels will be important to watch in coming weeks especially after June 16, 2023 OPEX—a quad witching event. It is notable that IWM trades far below its major ATH VWAP from November 2021. Compare how IWM's price trades relative to this VWAP (labeled on the Primary Chart above) with how SPY's price trades relative to its ATH VWAP. SPY's VWAP anchored to its ATH is shown in Supplementary chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Finally, a relative chart of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 is helpful to examine these two major US equity indices and how IWM has performed YTD relative to the SPY / SPX. See Supplementary Chart C below. This relative chart shows IWM still in a downtrend relative to SPY. And it still shows that IWM vs. SPY remains below major resistance. Given that IWM is a leading index at times, it will be interesting to see whether what happens to the major resistance on this relative chart that was broken in early April 2023. Will it hold? Supplementary Chart C In summary, the small-cap stocks in the US equity market are lagging despite putting in a strong weekly performance this week of +3.33%. The primary trend in small caps remains sideways by any measure. Will IWM play catch up to the other main US indices like S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ )? No one knows for sure. But the liquidity problems plaguing the US economy tend to show up in the weakest names first, which usually are also the smallest names. Could IWM's underperformance be a sign of this liquidity stress? Or will it catch up to confirm that the current rally in NDX and SPY are perfectly healthy under the hood and headed to new all-time highs? Stay tuned. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:IWM
by SquishTrade
25
Stock picks for 2023 Hey everyone, I thought I would do a fun little post about .. *Gasp* investments. I know, who would’ve thought, stocks as investments? Nuts, right?! But seriously, as a day trader who really just disdains swinging, I have actually slowly started to dip my toes back into the investment sphere. I also have a bit of a watch list of my top picks that I am slowly trying to accumulate. So I thought I would share those things that I am watching and give a brief little description of my thoughts on them. Please keep in mind, this is not at all investment advice. The two things in life I have horrendous track record with and a general lack of insight into are relationships and growth stocks. I pick both of them very poorly. But here it goes anyway. My top watches: NYSE:ERJ If you follow me, you will know I am a fan of aerospace tickers. BA is my top pick, but ERJ is one that I actually recently have bought some shares of. ERJ is a very serious contender and competitor for Airbus (OTC:EADSY) and Boeing (NYSE:BA). At under 15$ a share, to me it’s a steal for a company that has great potential and has already proven to be a reliable competitor to 2 behemoths (Airbus and Boeing). Bombardier ( OTC:BOMBF or TSX:BBD.B ) On track with my aviation obsession, Bombardier is also a top pick for me. They are no longer doing the commercial plane stuff, but they are still producing business jets and do still have quite a big fleet of regional aircraft in service in Canada, the USA and Europe. They also are involved in rail transportation. They are traded on the OTC market in the US and the TSX in Canada. A solid foreign investment for non-Canadians and a solid local investment for Canadians in my opinion. Canadian National Railway ( NYSE:CNI or TSX:CNR ) This behemoth is a very solid investment, I can say that quite confidently. With it pretty much dominating the rail transportation business in North America, you really can’t go wrong. Great money flow, solid company that is constantly expanding, including buying other rail transportation companies in the US. Also, the chart is in a very interesting place. It has recently dropped below its 200 MA, but its on some pretty solid support. Iridium ( NASDAQ:IRDM ) I love this company. I first experienced them as a child on an Alaskan fishing trip with my father with their clunky af phones. Interestingly, the pone we used in the 90s look identical to their modern phones: They have recently exploded as they have set their goal on introducing the IOT and expanding internet services. The concern of course is Starlink; however, the infrastructure for telecommunications (i.e. cellphones) is much different from internet and Starlink, and more specifically, Elon has not expressed any interest in trying to enter this market. It also would not be an economically feasible feat to transition the Starlink constellation to provide phone coverage in addition to internet coverage as the function is actually quite different. This is one of the reasons I presume we are seeing Irdium explode to the upside after years of being kind of neglected. I am personally waiting for some pullback and will be a buyer. Kraken Robotics ($TSX:PNG) Release the KRAKKEN! It’s a tiny little Canadian robotics company with huge potential. They specialize in deep sea robotics. They already hold multiple contracts with military institutions in Canada, Europe and the USA. And all for under 1$ CAD! They also are popular among deep sea oil companies. I will be honest here, I do expect this company to probably be bought out by someone at some point because of their potential and their very niche and under-serviced area of expertise with their huge potential. But either way, definitely a company I see a future for. I have been a holder for some time on this company. LMT ( NYSE:LMT ) What can I say, I am a sucker for aviation and military stuff. And also, I can't have my absolute favourite stock Boeing without LMT. LMT goes without saying, it’s a solid investment. Its devoid of the market drama we see and it is in its own world. It’s a company that really doesn’t need an introduction. At a hefty price of over 400$ a share, its not a stock I would recommend to novice investors, but for those who want to invest in a sure thing, I think it’s a fair bet. GNRC ( NYSE:GNRC ) Ah GNRC. If you are a semi-long term follower you will know this is another stock I stan. And also proves that I sure can pick ‘em, with GNRC doing a whole lot of tanking in 2022 and a whole NOT lot of recovery. But it really seems to have bottomed at this point. It has been downgraded by analysts but its showing incredible resiliency. They predominately deal with generators and electrical stuff but have also recently introduced solar generation and an identical product to TSLA’s Powerwall that is already commercially available. Pembina Pipeline ( TSX:PPL ) An oil/energy stock out of Canada. I like it because it pays 0.21C dividends each month (CAD). A solid investment for TFSA’s and RRSPs/IRAs that generate consistent dividend returns and is a solid company with solid fundamentals. And that concludes my watchlist! Obviously there are others, but these are some of my favs. There are obviously some TSX tickers here and that is actually strategic. Throughout the 2022 decline, my TSX investments dropped, but my returns remained no less than 7% throughout the entire year and that Is with consistent contributions up until around 8 months ago when I halted temporarily. Regardless of whether you are Canadian or not, it is something to consider investing in foreign markets as a hedge against local markets. I personally invest in both TSX and NYSE equities for exactly the reason of 2022. Diversification of stocks is important, but its even better if you can diversify markets as well! These are my thoughts. Again, not advice, just want to share my thoughts and some of my fav tickers. Safe trades and safe investments to you all!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
4
Eli Lilly Finally Pulls BackDrug developer Eli Lilly shot to new highs earlier in the year, and now it’s finally pulled back. The first pattern on today’s chart is the high-volume bullish candle on May 3. The move followed positive Phase 3 data for donanemab, its potential Alzheimer's disease treatment. Second, prices are trying to hold the rising 21-day exponential moving average. That may indicate its short-term uptrend remains in effect. Third, LLY apparently got ahead of itself last week and was unable to hold a new all-time high. But its quick pullback dragged stochastics to an oversold level where some buyers may feel more comfortable with the risk/reward. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:LLY
by TradeStation
5
Potential swing trade short on EUR/GBP EUR/GBP has just suffered its worst month in ten, thanks to renewed bets of a more-hawkish BOE and soft inflation reports across Europe. Volumes increased during the recent leg lower to show fresh bearish bets being placed and the OBV (on balance volume) has also confirmed the move lower on prices. Prices are consolidating near the cycle lows on the 1-hour chart within a potential bear-flag pattern, and the flag projects an approximate target near the December low / daily S2 pivot point. A weak inflation report for the Eurozone later today could help send prices directly low. However, should prices instead recycle higher first (which seems plausible given the magnitude of the bearish move) then bears could look to fade into the daily pivot point ~0.8610 or the volume cluster around 0.825. Given the strength of the downtrend, we’d view a retracement higher as an opportunity to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
Short
by CityIndex
12