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Reddit Braves Wall Street with 48% Pop in Debut. When Growth?Traders upvoted Reddit’s IPO but can the buzzing social media platform earn its stripes as a public company now?
Table of Contents:
⦿ Reddit Surges in Public Market Kickoff
⦿ If Wall Street Bought, Should You?
⦿ Reddit Stacked Up Against Rivals
⦿ Ad Posts Looking Like User Posts?
⦿ Bottom Line
📍 Reddit Surges in Public Market Kickoff
Reddit (ticker: RDDT ) stepped into the public-market space this week with a flashy and splashy IPO (initial public offering) in New York that chalked up a 48% gain on its debut day. The listing was met with lots of cheer from Wall Street as it was the biggest one for a social media company since Pinterest hit exchanges in 2019.
Shares of Reddit surged to $47 out of the gate to make its first deals at a 38% premium to the company’s IPO price of $34 a share. Valuation soared to $9.5 billion by the end of the session when shares closed at just over $50 a pop.
Reddit’s listing day with the Snoo—the website’s official mascot. Source: Reddit.
By the looks of it, investors upvoted Reddit—a chat-room powerhouse and a stalwart of community-based culture venues sprawling from cat-praising r/CatsInSinks and owl-loving r/Superbowl to the intimidating trading hub r/wallstreetbets that bankrupted GameStop short-seller Melvin Capital.
📍 If Wall Street Bought, Should You?
So the question is, if Wall Street scooped up Reddit shares… should you?
Let’s take a behind-the-curtain look at Reddit’s business model.
It’s been three years of trying for Reddit to get listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Finally, it issued 22 million shares for flotation, of which 8%—or 1.8 million—were reserved for friends, family and volunteer moderators. Those are unpaid users who make sure all the online communities are running smoothly. And they are also the content creators, because—unlike Netflix (ticker: NFLX ) or Spotify (ticker: SPOT )—Reddit doesn’t pay for its content.
The platform boasts roughly 73 million daily active users spread across 100,000 online chat rooms, or “subreddits.” Despite the wide reach and 19 years of existence, the platform has never seen what a profitable year looks like.
Its revenue comes predominantly from selling ads to companies who paid $804 million last year while the bottom line arrived at a $91 million loss. The revenue figure was a 20% increase from the $668 million picked up in 2022.
📍 Reddit Stacked Up Against Rivals
And while revenue growth can be seen along the years, investors are betting that Reddit will ultimately catch up to the big shots in the social-media space. When Meta (ticker: META ), formerly Facebook, kicked off its public endeavors in 2012, it soaked up a market value of $104 billion and raised $ $16 billion for its IPO. Elon Musk’s X Corp, formerly Twitter, landed its first public deals at a $14 billion valuation, having raised $1.8 billion. In comparison, Reddit raised $748 million at an IPO valuation of $6.4 billion.
Reddit carries the lowest valuation at IPO among social media peers.
📍 Ad Posts Looking Like User Posts?
Against that backdrop, Reddit is taking a sketchy approach to bolstering its ad sales. Apparently, the folks at the upper echelons of the company decided it’s a good idea to make ad posts look exactly like user posts . The so-called “free form ads”, the company said, will mimic the popular user post type “megathread” and will “encourage users to deep dive into the topic at hand.”
The community, on the other hand, didn’t show much love to that new advertising strategy. “Enable comments on ads, you cowards,” said one Reddit user while related threads were loaded with users’ comments of disapproval.
📍 Bottom Line
And there you have it, 19 years of posts, 100,000 subreddits, and 73 million users who churn out all the content and self-sustain operations. Reddit gave us the meme stock craze back in 2021. Is it going to give us a rerun of the stock frenzy with its own shares this time? Or will the folks at r/wallstreetbets flip the script and short it?
💬 Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below!
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Live stream - A tolerant Fed sees new highs across marketsWe have a jam packed show this week! Settle in for all your market updates and expert commentary from the Trade Off veterans, Westy and Blake. They're talking FOMC, BoJ/BoE (and how to play the JPY/Nikkei), Gold, Crude, S&P and much more.
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Explosion in the price of live cattleThis commodity has been trending since 2020, and recently made a new high just after a moderate pullback.
It is going up in a straight line, currently hovering around resistance/support, the MA100 started pointing up and the price made a bullish pattern.
The target for such a pattern is approximately the size of the pole which brings us to about 210.
With cattle there are no Elliott Waves it just does whatever it wants.
Because it is trending so strongly the risk to reward is something ridiculous.
And it could certaintly keep going up and up and up.
If you look at the all time chart you will notice LE has not trended like this ever. Something is going on. Bubble time.
The latest CME article is 6 months old, they talk about a contraction in the US cattle market (which is part of the cattle cycle theory which is more than 2 century old).
www.cmegroup.com
The US cattle inventory is the smallest in 73 years, that plus inflation means the price logically should be the highest ever.
People are addicted to macdonald's and are not going to give up their burgers, the Biden adminitration is going to have to do something I don't care what as long as it makes me money.
www.fb.org
Watch up expiry is in a few days, it might be a good idea to wait, also we are a bit early in the triangle pattern (but it feels like it could mega-break anytime).
If you trade this make sure to use guaranteed stop or another good form of risk management, it often gaps alot.
With a certain broker that has guaranteed stop the minimum risk you can take is $400 so this is not for everyone, depends on your broker.
I believe this is absolutely worth taking a 1% risk, and adding to it if it becomes a big winner.
The TradingView Digest - March 19thHello everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. We’re thrilled to bring you even more reasons to stay connected with the TradingView account. As part of our commitment to constantly evolve and improve our offerings for you, our dedicated users, this edition includes a special “What’s New “ section. In it, we explore the latest enhancements and additions to our platform, ensuring you're always up-to-date with our most recent advancements.
In today’s roundup, we’re excited to showcase the top posts from our vibrant community. Highlights include an insightful article on the history of Bitcoin, a trading strategy based on the Fibonacci tool, a new script for visualizing your equity curve, along with all the latest headlines, earnings reports, and economic events.
We hope you find this week's edition informative and engaging. Let's dive in! 😀
💡 History of Bitcoin: The Underdog That Rewired Finance - by TradingView
Bitcoin, a phenomenon that emerged at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, has changed the way we think about money. To celebrate the token’s $73,000 milestone, we trace its origin story and look ahead into the future. To infinity… and beyond?
💡 Fibonacci Trading Strategy For Beginners - by VasilyTrader
I am excited to reveal a powerful Fibonacci trading strategy that I learned many years ago. It integrates structural analysis, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, and candlestick analysis. When applied correctly, this strategy has the potential to yield a winning rate of over 60%.
📰 Top Stories
Adobe Stock Crashes 12% on Weak Guidance, Net Income Slashed in Half to $620M
China's Central Bank Keeps Key Policy Rates Steady
SOL, BOME Trend on Social Media as Ether, Bitcoin Lag
Nissan, Honda Shares Rise Sharply After EV Tie-Up Plan
Apple in talks to let Google's Gemini power iPhone AI features, Bloomberg News says
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
Dollar Tree's Fiscal Q4 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise
Williams-Sonoma's (WSM) Stock Up on Q4 Earnings & Revenue Beat
UiPath (PATH) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
KT reports record-high earnings in 2023
MorphoSys AG reports results for the quarter ended in December
💡 When will Bitcoin Reach the Cycle Top - by FieryTrading
In this analysis, I am providing an educated estimation for the timeframe within which Bitcoin may reach its peak during this cycle. You can observe Bitcoin's price movements spanning the past 13 years depicted on a 2-week chart. Essentially, it typically takes between 17 to 24 bars (equivalent to 34 to 48 weeks) before Bitcoin reaches its cycle peak, with an average duration of 20 bars.
💡 Help Shape the Future of TradingView Content - by TradingView
Hello, TradingView community! As we continue to grow and evolve, our commitment to providing value to our users remains paramount. At TradingView, we understand that our users are at the heart of everything we do. This is why we constantly strive to offer content that enriches your trading experience, empowers your decisions, and nurtures your growth as a trader.
📆 Economic Calendar
⚡️ 19th March (Japan) — BoJ Interest Rate Decision
⚡️ 19th March (Canada) — Inflation Rate YoY
⚡️ 20th March (United States) — Fed Interest Rate Decision
⚡️ 20th March (United States) — FOMC Economic Projections
⚡️ 21th March (United Kingdom) — BoE Interest Rate Decision
⚡️ 22nd March (Japan) — Inflation Rate YoY
🔥 What's New?
✅ JFX forex data — now accessible on TradingView
✅ Enhancing DeFi trading: TradingView partners with QuickSwap
✅ Improved data of BIST futures: make use of settlement prices, back-adjustment, and Open interest
✅ Chart view in Stock, ETF, and Crypto coins screeners
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Risk Management Chart - by NoveltyTrade
This script simulates multiple equity curves based on user-defined win-loss and risk-reward parameters, allowing visualization and analysis of risk management strategies.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“ Plan the trade, see the trade, feel the trade. ”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, thoughts, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
With 💖, TradingView Team
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EURUSD InsightHello everyone, and welcome, subscribers.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Booster and subscription requests are appreciated.
Last week, the February inflation indicators for the United States were released, showing a higher level than expected. It indicated that contrary to market expectations, inflationary pressures are not abating. There's speculation that the Fed may adjust its dot plot at this week's FOMC meeting and concerns are rising that the rate cut may be postponed until the latter half of the year, not June.
March 18: Eurozone February Consumer Price Index will be released.
March 19: BOJ Interest Rate Decision. It's anticipated that BOJ will halt its negative interest rate policy at this meeting.
March 21: FOMC meeting is scheduled, with a rate hold expected. The dot plot will be released, and remarks on future monetary policy will be crucial.
March 22: Speech by Chairman Powell.
The euro has been forming a downward trend and has shown signs of rebounding after hitting the 1.07000 line recently. There's an expectation of a rise to the 1.10000 line, but there's some concern about potential abrupt changes in direction due to variables this week. Considering the upcoming releases, movement can be anticipated in two ways:
First, short-term rise followed by resistance at the 1.10000 line, leading to medium to long-term decline.
Second, breaking below the 1.07000 line, leading to short-term decline towards the 1.04500 line.
If movements deviate from expectations, we will analyze again and adjust the strategy.
XAU/USD Gold has potential..but could go wrongThis is a long analysis I made both for myself and to share it with you,
I have to say that, I don't usually trade Gold.
And I won't be able to comment on the current state of world and news.
So this analysis will be focusing only on the charts,
please consider the market data and news before taking any position.
I summarized everything at the end of the post...
Looking at the really long term picture of Gold, we can see that Gold tried to break higher several times before.
This time however, as shown, it has a sweet bounce above the trend. It managed to show much more bullish behaviour than before.
In my view, this can go both ways;
it can reach new highs which I expect and the first profit target would be 2400$
or second possibility It gets rejected really quick and falls down to levels such as 1850$
Market news and short-term movements will decide..
We can see that the price got rejected as it should at around 2200$
I will investigate Gold in separate parts, each time narrowing the timeframe.
on this frame, which is again a wide look to see the long term potential.
I see a strong bullish behavior rising within the pink trend.
this should be able to break through the 2200$ mentioned on the previous chart snapshot.
Unless a downtrend, that is much larger than the blue one, I expect the Gold to move within the trend, potentially reaching the 2400$ target.
Since we confirmed the long term behavior, now lets examine the short term behaviour,
because a drop to 1850$ would still make the long term viable but significantly extend the trade duration making it unfavorable
This time I will be looking within the pink trend in detail...
we are down to the last 3 years,
we can identify the bullish turn from this frame too.
the blue downtrend within the previously mentioned pink uptrend is broken.
If the price keeps rising above 2200$,
The more steep purple trend should be able to push the price a bit beyond the white trend to the 2250$ point.
After that, I expect the price to move with the strong bullish behaviour...
around 2250$ the price will stick above the upperband of the white trend and after some short consolidation, potentially create a much steeper version of the white trend making the old one insignificant and rise rapidly to 2400$.
Or If the price can't go pass 2200$ and starts falling,
Will probably retest the 2080$ and maybe even fall further...
a more detailed analysis will be necessary in that case, since the trade length will significantly increase..
Now I will be looking if the price will pass 2200$ and how am I going to keep track of it.
We are down to a month long frame,
the pink and purple lines are the trends more focused and carried from the previous frame to fit the short term approach, I use them as guides..
At 2200$ the really steep uptrend ended,
bearish movement started shown with the yellow trend,
If the down trend is broken and again another bullish move starts.
I expect another trend to be formed, in place of the older steep white trend,
marked with bold white stripes.
the price should be staying close to 2180$-2190$ marks and we will see if it can get past 2200$
If it does, the price should continue rising as I mentioned on the previous frame.
If bearish movement continues and yellow trend can't be broken yet,
price should fall back to around 2145$-2150$.
And further failure to break above will result in prices such as 2080$
but I will be investigating the short term again if that happens.
In summary,
Long term approach Bullish no matter what.
Price Target 2400$ for now...
but for a more detailed entry idea
the timing of the trade however will change depending on two conditions;
1- If it can break above 2200$ I expect to reach price target in 2-3 months.
2- If it falls below 2150$ the trade will be postponed until a more solid level is reached possibly around 2080$
In either case, market news will play a big part on this...
And I would appreciate any different ideas on the comments
I will be updating this from time to time.
🔥 When Will Bitcoin Reach The Cycle Top? In this analysis I'm going to take an attempt at making an educated guesss at when Bitcoin will top, purely based on price action.
On the chart you can see Bitcoin's price action over the last 13 years on the 2-week chart. The arrows are drawn from the first candle close above the previous all-time high (purple lines).
In short, it takes between 17 - 24 bars (34 - 48 weeks) before Bitcoin reaches it's cycle top, 20 bars on average. Seeing that we're currently at the first candle close above the last ATH, we can extrapolate previous data and reach the conclusion that Bitcoin will top in December 2024.
When do you think that Bitcoin will top? Share your thoughts!
GOLD stopped its decline and rebounded strongly againToday's world gold price is listed on Kitco at 2,175 USD/ounce, up 17 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. World gold prices rebounded due to the weakening of the USD as investors still hope that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June despite high inflation in the US.
Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions cause safe-haven demand for gold bars to remain. World gold prices rebounded due to the weakening of the USD as investors still hope that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June despite high inflation in the US. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions cause safe-haven demand for gold bars to remain.
Currently, there will be 2 scenarios for bullish gold speculators. If the Fed cuts interest rates, gold will skyrocket. If the interest rate cut scenario does not take place, concerns about inflation could also push gold higher.
As of March 13, market indicators based on signals from the CME Fedwatch tool showed that there was a 64.7% chance that the Fed would lower interest rates at its meeting on June 12 with a cut of 25 to 50 points. percent, slightly lower than the 68.7% recorded on March 6.
The possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the March 21 meeting is up to 99%, while the possibility of not reducing interest rates at the May meeting is 89.6%.
In the second half of the year, the Fed is forecast to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. Gold is forecast to reach 2,200-2,400 USD/ounce in 2024.
Resistance: 2184 - 2192 - 2200 - 2210
Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2147 - 2137
Breakout: 2178 waiting for BUY test point
Breakout: 2172 waiting for SELL test point
Help Shape the Future of TradingView ContentHello, TradingView community! 👋🏽
As we continue to grow and evolve, our commitment to providing value to our users remains paramount. At TradingView, we understand that our users are at the heart of everything we do. This is why we constantly strive to offer content that enriches your trading experience, empowers your decisions, and nurtures your growth as a trader.
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📚 Educational ideas : Learn from comprehensive ideas on various tools and features, trading concepts, and other informative content.
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The TradingView Digest - March 12thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes a video tutorial on our newly revamped screener tool, an informative post about portfolio diversification, a hot script on tick data, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events.
💡 Diversification: What It Is, Why It Matters & How to Do It - by TradingView
Portfolio diversification is the strategy of spreading your money across diverse investments in order to mitigate risk, hedge and balance your exposure in pursuit of uncorrelated returns. While it may sound complex at first, portfolio diversification could be your greatest strength when you set out to trade and invest in the financial markets.
💡🎥 TradingView Screener 2.0 - by zAngus
The TradingView Screener was what initially led me to use TradingView. It allows me to quickly and easily filter thousands of stocks down to just a handful that meet my criteria. No matter your preferred trading style - whether it's based on technicals, fundamentals, indicators, price action, RSI, MACD, volume, etc. - the TradingView Screener can quickly help you narrow down any stocks that meet your criteria.
📰 Top Stories
U.S. Feb Nonfarm Payrolls +275K; Unemployment Rate 3.9%
SMCI: Super Micro Stock Jumps 3% on Upgrade. Here’s Why Shares are Up 10X in One Year.
XAU/USD: Gold Shines Bright to Record High of $2,160 as Central Banks Stack Up
BTC/USD: Bitcoin Cools Off After Knocking Out Fresh All-Time High Above $69,000, Smashing 2021 Record
CPI, Rates and Other Key Things to Watch This Week
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
America's Car-Mart (CRMT) Reports Q3 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates
Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. Reports Q4 and Year-End 2023 Results
Amplify Energy (AMPY) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
Algonquin Powers Up In Q4 But Skips Guidance On Uncertainty Over Renewables Sale
Paysafe Shares Slip 14% on Surprise 4Q Loss
💡 A Simplified Model for Bubbles - by holeyprofit
Understanding the phases of a bubble and crash is not as grandiose a claim as it's made out to be. My idea that bubbles and pops can be understood is based on my opinion that various TA methods do a good job of explaining trend development. When major bubbles and pops are viewed in hindsight, they exhibit obvious fingerprints of bull/bear trend development.
💡 Bitcoin is Still Behaving like a Risk Asset - by Tradersweekly
After reaching a new all-time high last week, Bitcoin underwent a mini flash crash, erasing more than 14% within a few hours but soon recovered. The number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC slightly increased, while those with balances exceeding 100 BTC dropped slightly.
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Order Chain - by Kioseff Trading
This indicator utilizes live tick data to visualize volume dynamics in real-time.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“ The trend is your friend. ”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
TradingView Team
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Nvidia and the Midcap BreakoutMegacap growth stocks like Nvidia have outperformed for years. But traders looking for the trend to change may see more evidence of a shift.
Today’s idea considers three charts. The first shows how Nvidia (NVDA) rallied 93 percent this year above its previous record high. It also highlights the big price swing on Friday as the chip giant made a new record high before reversing lower. In the process it engulfed prices over the two previous sessions. That’s a potential reversal pattern, especially considering the heavy volume. Is it a top for now?
We next turn to the SP:MID S&P 400 midcap index, which ended last week above its previous weekly closing high from November 2021. That pattern of higher weekly closes in December anticipated January breakouts in the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500. Will midcaps follow?
MID is potentially important because it mostly focuses on traditional groups like industrials, retailers and financial services. It roughly tracks “value” stocks.
Speaking of value stocks, the final chart shows a ratio between the SP:SVX S&P 500 Value Index and the Nasdaq-100 on a monthly time frame. Value outperformed as the dotcom bubble deflated, but then growth stocks regained leadership in 2009. However the ratio has stabilized since August 2020.
Finally, the AI trend is about one year old. (It began with the spread of ChatGPT in February 2023 and NVDA’s GTC conference one month later.) Will investors start taking profits on long-term gains? Conditions are also changing as the economy skirts recession and the Federal Reserve prepares for a potential rate cut in June.
In conclusion, traders looking for a rotation away from megacap growth stocks have been frustrated for a long time. But now there could be increasing signs that some rotation has finally begun – at least for the time being.
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Bitcoin: Failed High Or 80K?Bitcoin first pushes all time highs earlier in the week, followed by a 10K point retrace, only the climb back to the top and push the highs again. Wild price action for sure, but what does this mean in terms of the probability of continuing higher?
The fact that price retraced 10K points in one day is very telling and demonstrates the amount of risk one faces at these levels. It is also impressive that it recovered the 10K points and now flirting with all time highs again. Certainly an argument for strength.
There are two important things to consider here from a technical perspective. You can argue all you want about "halving" and whatever, but I am only interested in probabilities. The question I ask is "what is the probability this continues higher?". To answer that, I look at two technical elements: the wave count and the support/resistance levels.
The fact that 5 waves are complete and there was a sell off attempt tells me this market can sell at a moments notice. 5th waves usually signify that the potential for this move to continue is VERY limited. While anything is possible, I like to lean on the side of probability and 5th waves often precede corrective structures. As we have seen a 10K adverse move is very easy, so what will a legitimate correction look like? The point is the risk is very high on the long side, particularly for investors.
The second factor I am watching is the FAILED HIGH scenario (see arrow on chart). The blue rectangle represents a proportional area where price is HIGHLY likely to reverse. It has reversed once on the smaller time frames in this area. IF a bearish reversal pattern appears in this area AGAIN, it can be the start of the broader pull back. Keep in mind a price probe into this area can push into new highs, getting the herd all excited before turning.
The bullish continuation scenario would be IF prices pushes through the blue rectangle effortlessly and closes above it. That would signify continued strength which could take prices into the mid to high 70Ks. This type of price action is ideal for day and swing trades, while too risky for investing in my opinion.
I am not able to put a hard probability on this situation, but IF you had a clue that there was an 80% chance of retrace and a 20% chance to continue to 80K, which side would you lean on?
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
A Simplified Model for Bubbles. This post is to test a hypothesis we can break bubble moves down into five main stages and with these we can have a reasonable idea where we might be in that move.
Here I've marked up the phases on Cocoa and I'll also show some others that have similar phases.
Broadly understanding the phases of a bubble and crash is not as grandiose a claim as it's made out to be. My idea that bubbles and pops can be understood is based on my opinion that various TA methods do a good job of explaining trend development. When major bubbles and pops of the are viewed in hindsight, they have obvious finger prints of bull/bear trend development.
Trend development models and theories are something we can develop and test trading over smaller timeframes. On 5 minute charts little bubbles and crashes happened daily. On hourly charts they happen weekly. Daily charts you see them over months. If you can test thing to work on these timeframes, it's perfectly valid to scale that to weekly/monthly.
My premise is the overall rules of trend development are not significantly different from the rules of intraday/week/month development.
Through the last years I've tested models I have for bull trend reversals with varying effects. I could tout various instances of forecasting major reversals in 2021/2022 and show a very timely switch to bull in 2023. The models have had many successes. They've also had many misses. I've learned a lot about the limitations of various things.
This is an attempt to combine the original trend development ideas I had with real experience of attempting to establish the major swings in moves over the last years and apply that to some current charts that have people's attention. Charts that as per this bubble template would be in heading into the reversal swings.
First let's expand on the five stages;
Stage one:
During stage one there will be an obvious uptrend. The trend won't be of an exceptional angel but it will be progressively heading higher. It will probably look like it's going up quickly in real time, but when viewed later this was a very slow section of the trend. Lots of pullbacks likely in this phase.
Stage one has an uptrend but it does not have a lot of people believing in it. In fact, what's most common is stage one is people pointing out the reasons the trend is unsustainable.
Stage two :
Stage 2 is a crash section of the move. The bull trend breaks. At this time there are not a lot of calls for dip buying, a more popular tone is "Told you so". People have been expecting the rally to fail and are vindicated. During this time is the best possible time to buy but it'd be a highly unpopular opinion to defend in the public arena.
Stage three:
The doubling. A magnificent trend. It defies doubters time and time again until few people dare to doubt and those who do are subject of mockery. There's been a full shift from those being bullish being the outcasts to those being bearish being the outcasts. By this time the asset in question should be the darling of market related forums.
Note - I've called this the doubling phase but it can be a bit more/less. What's important is it a massive advance of the trend. Which massively changes sentiment.
Stage 4
Stage 4 is a false reversal. Heading into stage 4 it's unpopular to be a bear. Usually by this stage we're seeing people buying the asset with no previous investing background (Or nothing of a speculative nature like this). It not only has public acceptance but it's shrouded in eternal optimism.
Note: It is possible the optimism around the asset in question is long term valid. This does not remove the risk of 70 - 90% drawdowns. A standard part of trend development is to make a first trend leg. Correct almost all of that trend leg. Then head into a far larger and longer trend. An example would be the 1920's rally and crash. Was going higher, late 20's was bad time to buy.
Stage 5
In stage 5 bulls become geniuses and bears become stupid. Stage 5 is where an unshakable belief in the trend is formed by bulls and even the most staunch of bears is having trouble shorting it. If they're not shy about when they're short, they do not have money to short any more. Stage 5 is a tough time to be a bear.
Stage 5 is a really strong spike out. Coming off the stage 4 bear trap it really solidifies the idea this trend can overcome anything. It is the strongest section of the trend. Brief, but aggressive.
NVDA
Maybe the the most loved/hated stock in the world. Lot of strong opinions on NVDA. I personally think AI is cool and AI stocks have a great future. But remember that thing I said about big corrections. Just because something will be awesome in 30 years does not make it a good buy now (Looking at you, Nasdaq 1999!).
Here's the stages.
SMCI
SMCI is tricky because when you look at the rally close up you can see there are 10% drops which could be considered fitting for stage 4. That would imply a top being in now we have the big break candle. However, it's also equally valid to make a case for this being stage 4 and there to be a final spike out.
The model would have SMCI either at a classic bull trap reversal level or due to spike the high before the real turn.
Click below for the case for high being in.
AAPL
Here's the phases in AAPL looking at from inception.
The usefulness of the model (So far) for AAPL can be supported with an accurate forecast of the rally to a new high forming.
All of which would be well explained with Elliot Wave theory.
Here's an example of what happens when all of these phases hit and there is a strong and complete reversal.
XRP: Bull Market VibesXRP, like many other cryptocurrencies, has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years. In this article, we will analyze XRP's behavior from 2018 to the present, focusing on the bull market that started in December 2020.
Descending Channel (2018-2020)
From the summer of 2018 to December 2020, XRP was in a descending channel. This period was characterized by low volatility and a gradual decrease in price.
Sharp Pump and Bull Market (December 2020 - May 2022)
In December 2020, XRP surged sharply, breaking out of the descending channel. This pamp marked the beginning of a bull market that lasted until May 2022.
Ascending Channel (May 2022 - Present)
Since May 2022, XRP has been trading in an ascending channel. This channel is characterized by clear support and resistance lines, as well as XRP constantly testing the upper channel boundary.
Pump Expectation
On the daily timeframe, XRP shows a decrease in volatility. This pattern often precedes a sharp rise in price, so it can be expected that XRP is about to make a new pamp.
Bullish Sentiment Confirmation:
XRP has been holding in an ascending channel for 7 months, without breaking the support line.
The price is constantly testing the upper boundary of the channel, which indicates the bulls' pressure.
Decreased volatility on the daily timeframe is a typical pattern before a pamp.
Important Caveats:
It is important to conduct your own research and assess the risks before investing
Bitcoin is still behaving like a risk assetAfter reaching a new all-time high yesterday, Bitcoin underwent a mini flash crash, erasing more than 14% in less than five hours and falling below $60,000. Nevertheless, it took only a few more hours for Bitcoin to recover and get back above the $66,000 handle, where it currently trades. The number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC slightly increased, while those with balances exceeding 100 BTC dropped by a small margin. In our opinion, yesterday’s price action is a prime example of Bitcoin remaining a risk asset rather than a safe haven that many people consider it to be. Consequently, we remain highly vigilant in this euphoric state of the market.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD and yesterday’s mini crash.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The TradingView Digest - March 5thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes a video tutorial on “The Leap” - our first ever paper trading competition, an informative post about Nvidia’s euphoric rise, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events.
💡🎥 The Leap - Win up to $10,000 - by TradingView/
We’re spinning up the first-of-its-kind trading competition and you’re all welcome to join! Traders, speculators, active investors and even the FX gurus on Instagram and the “live like me” trading influencers — this one’s for you all. Show us what you’re made of in our first-ever paper trading competition, The Leap. The Top 5 get to walk away with real cash. From first to fifth, prizes are as follows: $10,000, $5,000, $3,000, $2,000 and $1,000.
💡🎥 Why Central Banks are Buying Gold - by konhow
While many of us celebrate the stock markets reaching new highs, central banks worldwide are actively purchasing gold and institutions are hedging into treasuries to secure yields. It's important to note that interest rates are determined by central banks, while yields are determined by investors.
📰 Top Stories
Elon Musk vs. Everyone: The New Fight in AI
How the U.S. economy could slide into a Japan-like 'lost decade'
Nvidia Stock Soars on Meta AI Deal
Lockheed Martin Gets $663.1 Million Contract Modification from U.S. Department of Defense
Breaking: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Overtakes the Largest Silver Trust with MUN:10B AuM
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
Dell Stock Pops 20% on Earnings Beat, Strong Guidance & Hot AI Servers Demand
Tidewater Q4 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Full-Year Revenue Guidance Reiterated
MasTec Q4 Adjusted Earnings Fall, Revenue Rises
Pactiv Evergreen Q4 Adjusted EPS Increases, Revenue Drops
FuboTV Reports Q4 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates
💡 Nvidia’s Formidable Rise - by TradingView
Intense demand for Nvidia's AI chips increased the company's value to $2 trillion, with half of this growth occurring in less than four months. This demand significantly boosted Nvidia's stock price, making it one of the top three largest companies in America, right behind Apple and Microsoft.
💡 How to Trade Gaps - by ShaneBlankenship
There are several ways to trade gaps, but first, there should be a solid understanding of what gaps are and how they manifest. Markets aren't difficult to read if we have some simple methods to observe them that adhere to the principles of movement. A gap is the sudden supply/demand imbalance that arises from contraction and manifests as expansion.
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Daily Chess Puzzles - by Lux Algo
This script delivers a new one-move chess puzzle to the chart every day.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“Not being stressed from a loss is the real flex.”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
TradingView Team
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Gold- New ATH this month? Analysis and SpeculationsI've written many posts and made videos expressing my belief that XauUsd will reach a new all-time high (ATH) this year.
Now, the question is, will it start with all-time highs this month?
In my opinion, it will.
But let's begin with why I'm quite certain that Gold will reach an ATH this year. It's relatively straightforward when you examine the monthly chart.
You don't need to be a technical analyst to see that the trend is clearly upward.
We witnessed a major false break to the downside at the end of 2022, and since then, despite normal corrections, the price has consistently made higher lows.
The monthly candle that just started broke above the technical resistance from 2070.
Of course, anything is possible, but in my view, the chances of a long-term reversal are pretty low now. To clarify, I'm referring to a reversal in the long term, not just corrections.
Now, regarding the next all-time high this month, I'll speculate a bit.
Looking at the same monthly chart, the reversal from November 2022 had 1600 pips, representing a rise of 10%, the second reversal from March 2023 had 2000 pips, which represents 11%, and the third and last monthly reversal candle had 1900 pips, which is also 11%.
So, we can speculate that this month's candle will also rise by around 10%.
Calculating this at the current price, we have around 2000 pips. With the month starting at 2040, we reach 2240.
Moreover, if we consider that the reversal actually started at the bottom of last month's Pin Bar, which is at 1980, and add 2000 pips, we also arrive at 2180, which is also an ATH.
In conclusion, while I don't have a crystal ball, I expect an ATH this month.
However, more importantly, I WILL NOT SELL INTO THIS RALLY, ONLY BUY ON DIPS.
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
If Seize the Day was a Company: Nvidia’s Formidable RiseUnhinged demand for Nvidia’s AI chips bumped the company’s valuation to $2 trillion, adding half of that in less than four months. Read how it happened.
Table of Contents
Genesis
Compiling
Speedrun
Benchmark
Spillover
Overclock Much?
Rage Quit
More Players Exit
Wild Rivals Appeared!
Runtime
Genesis
It’s a crisp, sunny morning in 1993. You’re at your local diner in Silicon Valley, casually sipping your coffee and waiting for your meal. At the table next to you, three engineers are cranking on caffeine and dreaming up a gig that would end up changing not only their lives, but also usher in a new era of computing. It’s the three founders of a company called Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ).
A business-savvy 30-year-old Oregon graduate Jensen Huang, hardware savant Chris Malachowsky and software geek Curtis Priem spun up the business more than 30 years ago. Together, they set up their venture in a bid to bring 3D graphics to the gaming space.
Compiling
Today, the thriving company is doing much more than that. Nvidia, which traces its humble origins back to a Denny’s diner, is now the backbone of the artificial intelligence revolution.
Nvidia was for a long time shoved into the deeper corners of the gaming space and was barely known to the public. For most of its existence, it’s been making graphics cards, which are used by gamers, crypto miners, plain PC users and professionals from various industries.
The company’s booming business line right now is AI chips—hardware pieces essential for training large language models, the type that underpins systems like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
AI chips have also underpinned another side of Nvidia—they’ve touched off a monster rally in its share price. Enough to catapult its valuation to the Top 3 of America’s biggest companies , right after iPhone maker Apple and software heavyweight Microsoft.
Speedrun
It took just about 24 years for Nvidia to step into the exclusive $1 trillion club, having started trading as a public company in 1999 at a $625 million valuation. Then in the span of just four months—November 2023 through February 2024—Nvidia added its second trillion, largely thanks to its timely expansion from its flagship products to the powerful AI chips.
Now, Nvidia is comfortably sitting in the Top 5 of the world’s largest companies .
“A whole new industry is being formed, and that’s driving our growth,” chief executive Jensen Huang told shareholders right after the company published jaw-dropping 265% revenue growth for the final quarter of 2023. The chip darling picked up $22.1 billion in sales, up from $6.05 billion a year ago. Profits swell to more than $12 billion.
Source: Stock Analysis
Benchmark
The earnings release fueled a never-before-seen $277-billion boost to the chip maker's valuation. It was the biggest one-day gain in history of the stock market, surpassing Meta’s recent $204.5 billion pump .
On the second day after the December-quarter financials were published, Nvidia went on to soar above $2 trillion in value with shares changing hands at more than $800 a pop.
Not only that, but the AI trailblazer’s report jolted markets so much it set off a buying spree on a global scale.
Spillover
In the US, the broad-based S&P 500 index notched an all-time high, joined in record territory by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In Japan, the diverse Nikkei index broke out to a fresh record after 34 years of languishing performance.
Nvidia’s magnificent rise has propelled Huang’s personal fortune to roughly $70 billion, a reflection of his 86.6 million shares, or 3.6% of the company. Is it time for an attire upgrade away from the black leather jacket?
Shares of the company more than tripled in 2023 and pumped over 60% for the first two months of 2024.
Jensen Huang wearing his signature leather jacket—an outfit picked by his wife and daughter. Source: nvidianews.nvidia.com
Overclock Much?
The fundamentals behind the company’s breakneck growth are undoubtedly real. Demand for Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs, called H100s, is so big the chips are being delivered in armored trucks. Each one of them weighs about 290 lbs (130 kg) and will set you back about $30,000 if you’re lucky to get one.
With that said, supply isn’t too loose with Nvidia holding about 80% of that market. What’s more, a new, more powerful H200 chip will be hitting the market in the second quarter of this year.
So what does this mean for the unstoppable rally? Analysts are quick to say that as long as Nvidia maintains its tight grip over supply, outweighing demand should continue to drive the up-only narrative.
Presently, Nvidia has the capacity to develop about 1.2 million AI-focused chips a year, far insufficient to meet the insatiable demand. To illustrate, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg popped on Instagram to brag about his plans of securing 350,000 units of that good H100 stuff by the end of 2024.
Besides the Facebook parent, Nvidia’s biggest customers are Microsoft, Google and ChatGPT owner OpenAI.
Rage Quit
The stampede by investors rushing to buy up stock wouldn’t be complete if it weren’t for the naysayers and doom-and-gloom forecasters. You’d be surprised to see who is on that list of permabears, slamming the chip maker and getting their short positions ready to fire. Or already fired.
Following Nvidia’s post-earnings explosion, short sellers were left nursing paper losses in excess of $3 billion. Staring at giant drawdowns might sting just as badly as missing out the ride.
Disruptive-tech investor Cathie Wood, CEO of investment firm ARK, said in 2023 that Nvidia was “ priced ahead of the curve .” By the end of the year, Wood had offloaded a stake worth more than $100 million. Estimations point that this early leave may be equal to more than $500 million in missed-out profits.
There are other notable names in the investment space who got rid of—or heavily trimmed—their Nvidia shares by the end of last year. (Hedge funds and other investment managers who oversee at least $100 million are required to disclose their holdings in public companies each quarter through a form called 13F.)
More Players Exit
In its 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, George Soros’s family office Soros Capital had completely exited Nvidia in the third quarter, selling shares worth $4.9 million.
Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office held 875,000 shares of Nvidia going into 2023’s third quarter. By the end of the fourth quarter, that hefty stash had been reduced by roughly 40%. Druckenmiller still owns some $300 million in Nvidia shares and even scooped up call options with a notional value of $242 million.
The sellers’ argument wraps around the heavily cyclical nature of chip demand. While in good times there’s euphoria and chip companies triumph, they could also be prone to setbacks once the tide turns.
A fresh example from Nvidia’s recent performance is the 60% drop in its share price in the time span April through September 2022.
Nvidia's share price endured a 60% drop between April and September 2022.
Wild Rivals Appeared!
Competitors from the hardware corner of the economy don’t sit idle while Nvidia goes on an all-out expansion mission. Advanced Micro Devices (ticker: AMD ) is already selling chips similar to the H100s and projects revenue to land at $3.5 billion in 2024. If that number is met, or even doubles, it still will be a blip compared with Nvidia’s $100 billion full-year revenue Wall Street expects.
SoftBank-backed Arm Holdings (ticker: ARM ), whose stock is just as volatile , is in the AI race too. So is Intel (ticker: INTC ) — the US tech mainstay makes and sells chips that power generative AI software.
Nvidia, meanwhile, is busy taking steps to try and cement its dominance in the AI space. It’s already in talks with big tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google over developing custom chips. Meanwhile, all three are manufacturing their own chips.
Runtime
The big question lingering on everyone’s mind is when will that dizzying AI boom come to a halt or at least pause for breath? Nvidia’s formidable rally, fueled by the rush for graphics processors, is the very definition of what seizing the day means. What’s a reason that may extend this run?
One reason is that the company keeps adding blockbuster earnings quarter in and quarter out.
A second one—Nvidia will need to find a way to work together with tech giants seeking to cut into the AI business. And thirdly, all that effort should eventually pay off by laying out the infrastructure that will foster the much-anticipated AI-driven productivity gain.
Live stream - How To Trade Event Contracts - End of the Month In this video, Anthony Crudele discusses why event contracts can be a good additional tool for traders to use on major event days, such as FOMC and on the last trading day of the month. 📈🔧
SasanSeifi 💁♂Potential for Significant Growth in the Long TermAs you can see in the chart, the price of CAKE has experienced significant growth after a period of decline and volatility. The price bounced back from the $1 support zone and has since experienced another minor increase after a pullback to the $2.50 demand level. The price is currently trading at $3.20.
By examining the behavior of candles in the long-term time frame, we can expect the following for the future of this currency:
If the $2.50 price range is maintained, we can expect further growth to the $4.50/5 liquidity zone and a new high above $4 (HIGH).
The above image shows the possible long-term trend of CAKE and the desired targets. This trend indicates the significant growth potential of this currency in the long term.
The important support zones are $2.50 and $1.70.
This is not financial advice. Always do your research before making any investment decisions.
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
XAUUSD:29/2 Today’s Analysis and StrategyOn Thursday, the U.S. dollar index gave up yesterday's gains at 103.93, but bulls continued to put pressure on gold ahead of the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and gold prices have yet to break out of range trading. The dovish Federal Reserve released a timetable for interest rate cuts, suggesting that interest rate cuts will begin in the second half of the year. The U.S. slightly revised down fourth-quarter economic growth, providing support for gold prices, but gains were limited as traders focused on key economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials on the timetable for interest rate cuts.
This trading day will release the U.S. PCE data that the Federal Reserve focuses on in January. The market expects core PCE to increase by 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.2%. Core PCE is expected to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 2.9%. In addition, this trading day also Changes in the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits in the United States will be released. The market expects it to be 210,000, compared with the previous value of 201,000. Investors need to pay attention to changes in market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Additionally, a fresh decline in U.S. Treasury yields prevented bearish traders from making big bets on gold prices and helped limit the downside. Compared with forecasts for a rate cut in March at the beginning of the year, recent Fed comments and hot inflation data have pushed bets on the Fed's first rate cut to June. Higher interest rates tend to dampen investment confidence in gold.
Gold technical aspect
Daily resistance 2037-40, lower support 2000-1966
Four-hour resistance 2037-40, lower support 2015
✅Gold operation suggestions:
Gold is constantly oscillating. Today, the upper resistance is around 2037-41. Relying on this position, continue to go short once. The lower support is around 2020. During the day, rely on this range to sell high and buy low. You can participate multiple times.
SELL:near 2041
SELL:near 2015
BUY:near 2000
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
