Get started

Community ideas

The Road to $66 for STXUSDT (Stacks)$STXUSD has now beautifully broken out of the triangle after an impressive textbook correction at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This type of correction is a typical feature of wave 2 in an Elliot wave count, which indicates that $STXUSDT is now ready to embark on its third impulsive wave, often referred to as the most explosive one. Considering the increasing volume, an explosive surge in the number of transactions on the network, and the oscillators, we can expect a swift development in the price towards the following resistance levels: — 0.57 — 1.06 — 2.85 — 5.96 — 8.16 — 13.17. #stxusdt #stxusd #BNS #DeFi #BitcoinNFTs #Stacks
Long
by joerivdpol
20
Earn 18% While Waiting To Buy AMD At SupportHey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in AMD, the popular semiconductor company that often plays second fiddle to Nvidia (NVDA). Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on AMD shares. In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens. Either; A.) The stock price finishes above the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you make money. B.) The stock price finishes below the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you will be forced to buy the stock at the strike price. With the trades we publish, if the stock goes up, sideways, or down a bit, you'll make money. If the stock goes down a lot, then you'll be forced to buy shares. In other words- either make money, or buy the dip! The trick is finding the right stock at the right time. Right now, AMD seems like a great candidate for this strategy. Selling the October 20th, 2023 $105 strike put options yields more than 18% on an annualized basis, and 105 is a decent support zone, as you can see on the chart above. This is also a popular pivot area if you zoom out further: The stock has also been in a bullish uptrend, and the recent, flat price action is a solid consolidation that should be perfect for selling puts: But what about fundamentals? All of this means scant little if you're forced to buy a stock that will go down over the long term. Fortunately, AMD is growing its top-line sales and bottom-line profits at a steady pace on the back of increased demand for semiconductors: While the company is diluting shareholders somewhat, the valuation, at only 8x sales, seems reasonable when compared with peers and to the company's own multiple historically. Plus, the trade has a 76% chance of earning max profit by expiry. Overall, we think selling the October 20th, 2023 $105 strike put options is a great win-win trade for income-seeking traders. Cheers! Looking for more high-probability trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by PropNotes
26
Centrica - bullish divergence*investment opportunity* A 90% correction since 2014 and following oversold condition there now exists an excellent opportunity to buy this stock. The 10-day chart above confirms a regular bullish divergence between price action and the oscillators + higher low in price action. This is the start of a trend reversal. Price action is now in the bullish half of the Bollinger band as the mouth is constricting, which suggests a big move is coming. On the fundamentals Centrica engages in the provision of energy and supply services. There is no end of ‘bad news’ stories on the business. Pay no attention. The only news you need is the headlines in the charts, and they look amazing. A buy above 42 is good. 1st target 115 2-month chart - broken RSI resistance following oversold condition: 3-month chart - bullish morning star + confirmation
LSE:CNALong
by without_worries
20
Pre-Earnings Run in $UPSTNASDAQ:UPST has been running up speculatively after completing its bottom. It has mostly retail groups and smaller funds holding so that is why the stock has up and down days in an irrational trend pattern often. HFTs are in the mix regularly inspiring the speculation. The company reports Monday of next week. Looks like Pro Traders used a swing trading earnings strategy and some took profits ahead of the report. The stock has a low percentage of the shares held by institutions, so emotional trading candlestick patterns are problematic at times. It's important to buy and sell with the Pro Trader patterns in speculative stocks.
NASDAQ:UPST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
7
PayPal 79% down from ATH!! Under massive discount??I do not do manual analysis on anything. Instead, I develop methods to do the analysis. This way, we can be free from bias, and we measure things objectively. Having said that, purely statistics based analysis does not take into consideration recent news events and other economical or political impacts on the company. I developed this method to measure the discounted price probability of stocks based on its historical values of fundamentals and prices. Here is a summary of what is happening with PayPal!! Price down 79% from peak. This is also 98% discount if you consider drawdown of prices from ATH Most of the fundamentals are almost at all-time high. Exception is cashflow - that is in the negative territory Profit and operating margins are down slightly compared to its ATH Returns in comparison to capital, earning and assets are near ATH Debts have significantly increased Though the algorithm says probability of being discounted is pretty high, it takes all aspects into consideration and gives equal weightage. Will the significant increase in debt play a major role in the reduction of value, considering the increasing interest rates?
NASDAQ:PYPL
by Trendoscope
22
Europe (VGK) slides right as folks head on holidayThe Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) was an early-year relative winner as foreign equities generally outperformed the US stock market. Then came the March pullback which brought about a risk-off environment and flight to the dollar - both factor hurting relative returns of VGK. Even with a notable retreat in the greenback and a gradual shift favoring cyclical and small caps in late May through July, VGK did not perform all that well on a relative basis to the SPX. Nevertheless, the Financials, Industrials, and Health Care-heavy fund managed to claw its way toward 52-week highs by late last month. The first two trading sessions of August - a noted time when much of the continent's populous is on vacation - have featured a downside price action on high volume. Moreover, a bullish false breakdown in the dollar only adds to technical and intermarket headwinds for VGK here. I see support in the $59 to $60 zone while $64 is obvious resistance. A bigger Q3 pullback, always wont to occur, could lead to a target toward the mid- FWB:50S (that would be a material 14% correction).
AMEX:VGKShort
by mikezaccardi
8
Does weakness in Chinese stocks spell trouble for the U.S. ones?A while ago, we drew attention to the intriguing correlation between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. In fact, we presumed that if the Chinese economy and stock market were doing well (following the reopening after Covid-19), it would be inherently positive for the U.S. stock market and could postpone a recession to later. From around October 2022, both indices were rising in tandem. However, in March 2023, the positive correlation between the two started to weaken, and the U.S. stock market kept rising while Chinese stocks began to move increasingly sideways, finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. We find this development interesting as specific U.S. stock titles are reaching highly overbought levels, and the general theme in the media continues to be that of “soft landing” and that we have nothing to worry about. Seemingly everyone seems to forget that regional banks started to implode in 1Q23, and without the FED stepping in and providing more liquidity to the market, the situation would have been much worse. Then, on top of that, the FED keeps hiking into a slowing economy with many subtle signs of a recession already presenting themselves. We believe that if the Chinese stock market continues to roll over, then it can potentially lead to the spillover effect. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the correlation between the SPX and HSI (Hang Seng Index). It can be easily observed that both indices trended down from October 2021 until October 2022. After that, both indices trended together to the upside until late March 2023, when SPX kept increasing, but HSI began finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of HSI and the resistance area. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
51
Cisco Pulls Back After JumpingThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has been moving lately, and today we’ll consider index member Cisco Systems. The networking giant spent about a year trapped below the $52 area. That zone marked a top in April, June and early this month. However CSCO broke above it on July 19 and ran to a new 52-week high. It retreated on Friday to hold the earlier peak. Old resistance may have become new support. Second, the pullback brought CSCO back to its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 8-day EMA remains also remains above the 21-day EMA. Those points may suggest its recent short-term uptrend remains in effect. Finally, the stock rallied after its last two earnings reports. Will that positive history provide a tailwind for the shares with the next set of numbers due on August 16? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:CSCO
by TradeStation
8
EURUSD - Breaking Down Buying Opportunities for the Week AheadHere's a look at the FX:EURUSD & the potential buying opportunities that I have on my radar for the week ahead. More specifically what I'm looking at is a potential Bat Pattern with multiple points of confluence that can be used as a strictly in & out type of countertrend trade or an entry into a longer-term continuation setup depending on your big picture view. As always if you have any questions, comments or just want to share you views on the EURUSD please leave them below & please remember to hit that ROCKET SHIP button before you leave to show me some love. Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
51
As we approach new highs, what's the bear case?Historically, a rebound of this magnitude has almost always indicated that the bear market is over and that we've entered a new bull market. And there's plenty of reason to be optimistic right now. With the US dollar down, US manufacturing numbers have been coming in above expectations (PMI of 49 in July, vs. 46.7 estimate). Consumer confidence and home prices were also stronger than expected this week. The liquidity crisis for regional banks seems to have resolved itself, and the uptick in continuing jobless claims (USCJC) seems to have stabilized, at least for now. The ECRI weekly leading index is forecasting positive US growth. Yesterday, the Fed said it's no longer forecasting a recession. Preliminarily, it kinda seems like the magnitude of stimulus and interest rate hikes were in the right ballpark to actually stick a soft landing this cycle (with a big assist from the AI productivity boom). But as the market pushes toward new highs, let's consider what might be the bear case. Because markets love to surprise, and I do think there are some worrying signs. 1. Inflation could come roaring back, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high. A few weeks ago, interest rate futures were forecasting a 99% probability that rates would be lower by this time next year. But now it's only 87%, with a 2% chance that rates will actually be higher next July. Why are rate futures getting more hawkish? Basically because housing costs have been slow to correct and commodities prices have been climbing since May, which points to the possibility that inflation may continue to run hot. Why might housing prices and commodities stay hot? Well, for housing, it's basically because there's a shortage . We've got more real estate agents than houses for sale, by a wide margin. I do think housing prices will gradually come down, but it may take quite a while to normalize without a supply-side fix. And for commodities? Well, there are basically two problems. First, geopolitics are extremely ugly right now. You've got active insurgencies in huge swaths of Africa and the Middle East, and you've got Russia threatening to blockade food shipments on the Black Sea. That all drives commodity prices up. And second, you've got a six-sigma temperature anomaly that's destroying crops. Global warming seems to be running ahead of forecasts, which raises the worrying possibility that we've hit some kind of climate change tipping point and the North Atlantic Current might collapse sooner rather than later. That would be not only very inflationary for food prices, but also very bearish for equities in Europe and the US. Something to keep an eye on, for sure. 2. Expectations may be too high, especially for tech. Investors have been throwing money at tech companies because of the AI boom, on the assumption that these companies will be the main beneficiaries of it. But the reality, in my opinion, is that AI greatly erodes the value of their intellectual properties. For instance, ChatGPT has dramatically reduced the cost for me spin up a competitor product or even an open-source version of any major enterprise SaaS. The big software firms are going to have to throw a lot of money and people at AI in order to keep their edge. So far, only Microsoft is doing a really good job. And what about semiconductors? The AI boom is good for semis, because all that AI requires a lot of GPUs. But you know what? With rapid advances in the field, the compute demands have come down a lot . I can train a LLaMa model on a Colab notebook now, which is insane. Meanwhile, there's a semiconductor inventory glut on a scale not seen since 2001. Chips have been an extremely good bet for decades, and investors have rightly thrown a lot of money at them. But it's possible that we may now be late-cycle for the industry. Overall, I think the expectations for the S&P 500, and especially for Big Tech, may just be too high. We've got P/E above 26 at a time when profit margins are in a slide. My models point to a P/E in the 21–23 range as more appropriate for the current rates of interest and inflation. So it may be that there's not much room left for multiple expansion to lift the market higher here, so productivity gains will have to do a lot of work. 3. Liquidity remains a concern. In addition to raising interest rates, the Fed is continuing to shrink its balance sheet. Liquidity from the Fed has driven a lot of the market gains over the last decade, so a shrinking balance sheet is a headwind for stocks. There's also some reason to think consumers and small businesses have some cash flow issues right now. Last month, the Fed published a report showing an unusually high level of commercial financial distress. Auto loan delinquencies also hit a high last month. As long as money and jobs don't get any tighter than they already are, we probably won't see anything break. But if inflation rises again and we see more interest rate hikes, then there may still be some systemic risk. Conclusion I'm definitely not betting on a major bear market here. But this close to a major resistance level, it's worth looking parking some money in cash or bonds or putting on a hedge. S&P 500 puts are somewhat cheap right now, so it's not a terrible time to buy protection. And long-term bonds are on the cheap end of the range they've been trading in since last November, so it's also not a terrible time to put on bonds. I'm basically just thinking in terms of modest rotation and rebalancing here.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
70
EUR/USD Short and NZD/CAD ShortEUR/USD Short • If price corrects and a larger one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/CAD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
30