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Coinbase Wyckoff Accumulation. SPRING in play?We will find out shortly. The bear case: Coin goes to zero, after the US authorities pull on some threads and we unwind some massive criminal activity between the inner dealings of DCG - GENESIS - COINBASE - SILVERGATE - FTX - etc etc etc.... The Bull case: The bear case above is the overhanging Fear Uncertainty And doubt which is being amplified by the market maker so that he can scoop the final remaining shares. Within days we should see the beginning of a rally which should be relentless in its pursuit of reaching 115 dollars per share. Many will take this opportunity to sell at break even, or a slight loss from previous purchases (the remaining supply is absorbed by the market maker) Once this final supply is absorbed, we will see the market drift higher. People will ask, how was coinbase ever valued at 32 dollars per share??? how did the market dislocate so much and provide the opportunity for a 10x in such a short period of time? The market often over corrects just as much as it overshoots, providing great opportunity. Is this a case in which this has happened? or is coin really going to zero? We must dig deeper to understand. However, I am not here to do your homework. So do it yourself. Here are some hints though. USDC LSD SUBSCRIPTIONS Furthermore we must admit that coinbase has: Pricing power Trust Assets backed 1-1 I, Like my perceived market maker, have been accumulating at any price below 70 dollars, I would thus argue the market maker may not in fact be a single person, but rather a collective of people like myself thinking similarly. We take the risk when few others will, and for this we stand to profit more than usual. Or go broke.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by MikeMM
137
I'm still fascinated by the small cap crashI continue to be fascinated by the fact that small caps once retraced their entire post-Covid move. What I mean is, the Russell 2000, which is 2,000 companies that are identified as small cap stocks, had such a terrible year in 2022 that they went BELOW were they were before Covid was ever a thing. But why is this interesting? Because roughly $5 trillion was spent to stimulate the economy in various ways after the first Covid panic occurred. So let's quickly think about that: the Russell 2000 was, at one point lower last year than it was before an extra $5 trillion hit the economy. I continue to wonder what this means: did the market overreact? Is it stagflation? Did the recent rise in interest rates suck that $5 trillion back up? The money supply is shrinking again? There are tons of questions to consider and I also think it's important to wonder if this is still not the end. The following assets have still not yet retraced their covid highs: • Tech stocks and the Nasdaq 100 • The S&P 500 • The Housing Market • Inflation • Price of food • Price of average goods Keep in mind, several other assets have retraced and crashed quite hard including: • Vehicle sales and car prices • Crypto market • Treasuries/bonds So the question remains: is there more carnage ahead or will the market stabilize from here? The Fed does seem to be on a mission to crash food prices, inflation, and by extensions soaring housing. So one must wonder if the policy toward that eventually makes its way back into markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, or if indeed the worst is over and now we are plateauing. Part of me thinks its possible the Fed will get inflation under control while also preserving some of the market gains in tech, S&P 500, and more. Time will tell. So much more to think about.
AMEX:IWM
by scheplick
13
Solana - Per aspera ad astra!"Per aspera ad astra is a popular Latin phrase that means "through hardships to the stars." Today I want to share a very interesting analysis with everyone on here and I have this feeling, that this will get very controversial…. This coin got seriously beaten up since it’s last all-time high at 267$, nearly unbelievable that Solana was trading around this price a little more than a year ago. I still remember the massive hype which occurred on here and several other platforms like reddit or youtube, back when Solana skyrocketed from just 1$ to 100$, 200$ and finally 267$!  It’s safe to say that Solana is one of the biggest losers of 2022, and it’s very interesting to see that the vast majority of investors have ditched this coin. Well today I want to talk about the future of Solana and why a possible price-target of +450$ is NO JOKE! I know that many investors here have lost a lot of money with this coin, but please, let’s behave civil in the comments… okay? From a technical perspective, Solana heavily reminds me of Ethereum back in 2017-2018. The chart looks very similar, and Solana established a very promising 5-wave structure in its last bull run. From my experience I know that, the better and sustainable such movements were, the bigger was the chance that such coins survived. Solana is a very risky investment, even after the massive rallye of the past weeks. However the biggest risks also carry the biggest opportunities, don't forget that! There’s a saying, a picture says more than a thousand words. This image is not my own work, however I couldn’t manage to find the author of this anymore!   Of course, past performance and such comparisons are not a 100% for future success, but I was astonished how similar both coins established their movements. In the past weeks, Solana surprised everyone and managed to gain more than +210% in a matter of weeks. Many of you might be interested in a more short-term count, so we decided to share our count with everyone on here. I expect that the whole rally represents a wave (1) and in the next weeks Solana should correct lower in order to establish a proper wave (2). We are going to further build up long positions here as soon as the price reaches our highlighted buy zone. (16.75$ - 11.50$) If Solana manages to move beyond the key level of 48.34$ , a price target of at least +441$ at the 1.618 extension is quite possible.  Nevertheless, it is important to point out that Solana needs to break the key level at 48.34$ in order to officially declare the bear market as finished.   Please notice that we are already invested in Solana since the 20h of June, back then we announced our first positions here on tradingview. If you should have any questions whatsoever, you can write a comment or contact me directly! Long Solana (SOLUSD) AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 29.80$ STOP-LOSS: NONE LONGERM Target: +445$                                          
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Mendenmein-Capital
68
Nvidia Analysis 17.01.2023Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDA
by basictradingtv
53
Putting All Your Eggs in One BasketCME: Pork Cutout ( CME:PRK1! ), CBOT: Corn ( CBOT:ZC1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ) Diversification is a fundamental concept in investing. In order to minimize the chances that market volatility wipes out your entire net worth, it is important to put your money in several investments with different levels of risk and potential return. This is summarized nicely in a single phrase – “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”. In 2022, however, if you have followed this time-honored advice and allocated your money carefully across major assets, you would have lost money! Why did diversification fail this time? Let’s look at the annual return by major investment category: • Stock Market: S&P 500, -13.9%, Nasdaq 100, -25.5% • Bond Market: 2-Year T-Notes, +6.7%, 10-Year T Notes: -10.6% • Precious Metals: Gold, -6.9%, Silver, +8.8% • Currencies: US dollar index, +6.7%, Euro, -4.1%, British Pound: -9.9% • Energy: WTI crude oil, +1.2%, Henry Hub natural gas, -12.7% • Agricultural Commodities: Wheat, -1.9%, Corn, +11.3% • Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, -53.3%, ETH, -55.4% A diversified portfolio is not necessarily low risk. In time of distress, assets thought to have low correlation could all move in the same direction – going down. Last year, geopolitical crisis, high inflation and central bank tightening took turns driving financial markets lower. When a major crisis breaks out, all correlation goes to 1. This happened in 1998, when the Russian debt default took down Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), the largest hedge fund in the world. It repeated in 2007 and 2008, when the subprime crisis bankrupted Bear Stern and Lehman Brothers, the mighty Wall Street investment banks. It also wiped out the entire asset class in credit default swaps and exotic mortgage-backed securities. In this past year, troubles in one crypto Exchange, FTX, drove all cryptocurrencies down. Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins all lost value by half, even though the decentralized nature of the crypto market design is supposed to prevent this from happening. The Soaring Egg Price Ironically, if you put all your eggs in one basket, figurately, your investment would have doubled! According to price data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Large Shell Eggs, Grade A, have average retail price at $4.25 per dozen across US cities at the end of December, up 112% for the year. A portfolio of shell eggs beats the return of all 15 assets listed above, by a wide margin! A new term, Eggflation , has been invented to capture this phenomenon. Americans in recent years have increased egg consumption while reducing intake of red meat in their diet, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Interesting statistics : the total flock of egg-laying hens in the U.S. is around 320 million, almost matching the population of people. Each grown hen could lay as many as 320 eggs a year. And each of us eats about as many eggs as one hen can lay in a year. Egg consumption has grown in part because more families are eating them as their main protein diet. As demand for eggs has risen, chicken production in the U.S. has slumped as we are currently experiencing the most severe avian (bird) flu epidemic in the US history. Nearly 58 million chickens have been infected with bird flu as of January 6th, according to the USDA. Infected birds must be slaughtered, causing egg supplies to fall and egg prices to surge. So far, the total flock of egg-laying hens is down about 5% from its normal size, as farmers work hard to replace their flocks as soon as they can after an outbreak. On average, new-birth chicks take four months to grow into egg-laying hens. Egg prices are not likely to fall in coming months until decease-free hens are fully grown. While US CPI has cooled to 6.5% in December, inflation for food items is much higher at 10.4%. Eggs are just one of many food staples that skyrocketed in price in 2022. Margarine costs in December surged 44% from a year ago, while butter rose 31%, according to the CPI data. Egg Futures Contracts in the US and in China CME Group, the world’s largest Derivatives Exchange, traced its root to the Chicago Butter and Egg Board founded in 1898. Standardized egg futures contract started trading in 1919, as the Exchange reorganized as Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME egg futures were actively traded for sixty years. As the egg industry consolidated and egg prices stabilized over the years, the contract was delisted in 1982. In November 2013, China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange launched its own Egg Futures. The contract is based on 5 metric tons of shell eggs. As a consultant, I assisted DCE in contract launch as well as ongoing support. On January 13th, daily trading volume of DCE egg futures was 98,893 lots, with open interest standing at 204,202 contracts. A Case for Intermarket Spread The huge surge in egg prices amplifies the market risks for egg industry. Without the price discovery function at the futures market, farmers would have a hard time projecting future price trend. They rely on cash market prices to make production decisions. It takes four months to grow chicks into egg-laying age. Each commercially-raised hen will lay eggs for 1-1/2 years before being slaughtered. For each flock, farmers face price risks for up to two years. The main feed ingredients, corn and soybean meal, could be hedged with CBOT futures contracts. But egg and chicken prices are exposed naked. Farmers are rapidly expanding their flocks as egg price skyrocketed. At some point, there will be too many chickens in the henhouse, causing egg price to crash. Maybe an egg futures contract could make a big difference. I think it is time to bring back the CME egg futures. Until then, you could consider intermarket spread if you want to participate in the market: Buy Pork Cutout (PRK) and Sell Corn (ZC) and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures. August PRK rose 14% from October and currently prices at 30% above the front February contract. • Like Hog Margins, this intermarket spread attempts to capture the profit margins in egg production. This is based on projected up trend in both pork and egg prices. A second intermarket spread is to Buy DCE Egg Futures (JD) and Sell CBOT Corn (ZC) and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures, if you could trade the Chinese futures market. Finally, you could buy shell eggs in cash market and store them in a cold storage. You would make money if future egg price surge could cover the storage cost. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:PRKQ2023Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
Rising too high, too quickly?Recently, Bitcoin broke above the narrow range we showed in previous articles. Subsequently, it gained bullish momentum, rising to $21 456. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency paused its climb slightly below the resistance at $21 473. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, the inability to break above the resistance might suggest a faltering bullish momentum. Therefore, we will pay close attention to volume levels. To support a bullish case, we want to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a (further) price increase. Contrarily, to support a bearish case, we want to see low volume near high price tags (and then, ideally, a pick-up in volume accompanying a price drop). Overall, the price of Bitcoin is rising too quickly (and too high), which is more reminiscent of the FOMO (fear of missing out) behavior among market participants rather than a genuine primary trend reversal. Due to that, we are very cautious about this recent move and think it is still too premature to call the market bottom. We expect the U.S. earnings season to reveal more underlying economic problems and enforce the notion of the market progressing deeper into recession. As the cryptocurrency market stays highly correlated to the stock market, we expect this to weigh on it down the road. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000 (though, in the short-term, we do not rule out continuation higher). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Bullish volume accompanying the price rise can be seen on a decline, which is worrisome. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the hourly chart of BTCUSD. Volume can be seen dropping near high price tags, casting a sign of weakness. However, low liquidity may allow for volatile movement to either side. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
92
Aussie Dollar - Don't Worry Be Hoppy!China re-opening, widening trade surplus, and a fragile USD to keep Australian Dollar bouncing higher ("AUD") in 2023. The Dollar Index (“DXY”) is sinking through support levels even as the AUD rises past key resistance points. Amid solid tailwinds favoring AUD and formidable headwinds facing the USD, this case study argues for a long position in CME Micro AUD/USD Futures expiring in March 2023. Thus far, the AUD is 2023's top-performing currency. It appears to have raced ahead of itself with near-term consolidation expected before resuming its ascent. Hence, an entry at 0.695 with a target of 0.736 and a stop-loss at 0.668 will deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.52. WHAT DRIVES THE VALUE OF A CURRENCY? Supply and demand for a currency establishes its value. Monetary policy also has an impact on its value. Currencies with high domestic interest rates appreciate while those with lower rates get weaker. Nations enjoying greater trade surplus command a stronger currency. Currencies in high demand for savings, trade settlement, tourism, and education also appreciate. AUD, as a commodity currency, enjoys multiple tailwinds, making it resilient going into 2023. Economic re-opening in China after a shift away from zero-covid stance is expected to increase demand for commodities. Easing political relations saw China secure its first Australian coal cargos in two years. Bullish commodity prices will boost AUD. Australia's trade surplus widened to $13.2B in November when it was expected to decline to $10.5B. Growing trade surplus bodes well for AUD. China re-opening and easing political relationships benefits Australia in more ways than one. Chinese travelers and students are starting to return to Australia further boosting demand for its dollar. AUSTRALIA IS A TOP COMMODITY EXPORTER MAKING AUD A COMMODITY PLAY Australia produces copious quantities of crude and three-fourths of that is exported. Australia is one of the planet’s largest exporters of iron ore and coal. Iron Ore forms the single largest source of export revenue worth AUD 133 billion in 2021-22 according to Mineral Council of Australia. Australia also exports aluminum. As seen in the chart below, correlation between CME Iron Ore Futures prices to CME Micro AUD/USD Futures is tight at upwards of 90% and tends to move in tandem. Bullish Iron Ore prices augur well for the AUD. CHINA IS AUSTRALIA’S NUMBER ONE TRADING PARTNER More than half of every commodity is imported into China. It should be no surprise that China is Australia’s top trading partner. Importing more than USD 100 billion of Australian products, China accounts for more than 30% of all Australian exports. China is the world’s largest steel producer for which Iron Ore is a key ingredient. Predictably, China accounts for 80% of Australian Iron Ore exports. China is expected to remain a key producer and consumer of steel as its One Belt One Road requires huge investments in steel-intensive projects both within and outside its borders. RBA TO REMAIN HAWKISH IN FENDING OFF DOMESTIC INFLATION Australian inflation eased to 6.9% in October 2022 but shot back up to 7.3% in November beating expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) remains hawkish in the fight against inflation as it wrestles to bring inflation down to the 2%-3% target. Economists anticipate that it might take a quarter or two before reaching “peak-inflation” in Australia. Meanwhile, RBA will keep or lift rates higher which will strengthen AUD even more. KING DOLLAR SHEDS ITS SHINE The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the US dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies comprising of Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and the Swiss Franc. The USD rallied strongly in 2022 while investors’ flight to safety tendency demonstrated dollar’s heft as the global reserve. However, the DXY has shed 11.2% since touching a high of 114.778 on September 28 to close at 102.204 on January 13, 2023. Slowing inflation in the US is expected to ease the Fed’s hawkish aggression towards rate hikes. This will force the dollar to further lose its value against other currencies. Anticipating this, asset managers have reduced their net long positions in the DXY by 45% over the last twelve weeks while leveraged funds continue to entrench their net short positions by 3% during the same period. TECHNICALS POINT TO AUD BULLS AND DXY BEARS On January 6, AUD pushed past the 20-day moving average it has tested since December 27. The Bollinger Bands having narrowed until then is now broadening out with the AUD breaking out to the top. With the AUD trading around the Pivot point, it is now trending up and has traded past the first key resistance on January 12. Mirroring the same trend but to the reverse, the DXY attempted to rally past the 20-day moving average, but only to fail and sink below the immediate support at 102.643. The Bollinger band having narrowed until January 6 has given way with the DXY breaking out downwards shedding more than 2% with five daily red candles in succession. A bull in AUD and a bear in USD creates a compelling backdrop for a bouncy AUD in the near term. In vindicating this sentiment, the options open interest in CME Micro AUD/USD Futures shows a put-call ratio of 0.83 pointing to bullish view among options market participants. TRADE SET-UP Each long position in CME Micro AUD/USD Futures (March 2023) provides exposure to AUD 10,000. If AUD moves by 0.0001 point, the Micro AUD/USD future moves by $1. Entry: 0.695 Target: 0.736 Stop Loss: 0.668 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.52 Profit at Target: $410 Loss at Stop Loss: $270 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME_MINI:M6AH2023Long
by mintdotfinance
10
Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year RatesI begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start with rates. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but having a framework for markets and for recognizing change is important. Last year’s thoughts, including extensive fundamental background, are linked. In this piece I will recap my views on the monthly chart and follow next week with my view on the weekly chart and conclusions. A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield = a bull market in bonds. Over the last four decades bonds had consistently and reliably made lower highs and lower lows. The entire bull market was defined by a broad declining channel (A-B, C-D). The A-B downtrend line represented the "stride of demand" or the zone where buyers consistently emerged and the C-D line represented the "overbought line" or the zone where supply consistently emerged. From 2012 forward there were growing signs that the long downtrend was aging. Four things stood out. 1) The repeated failure to push to the oversold line (C-D). 2) The flattening out of the decline where each push to a new yield low only covered around 100 bps. 3) The 2018 spike to 3.25% that weakened the primary A-B downtrend. 4) In March of 2020 bonds pushed to the area around the center of the channel, and again failed to push into the overbought line (C-D), suggesting that demand was tiring. These very visible change of behavior strongly suggested that the 40 year downtrend was in danger. Now, the clear break and acceleration above the A-B downtrend has moved the long trend from bullish to neutral. While it’s likely that the move above November 2018 pivot @ 3.25% coupled with the changes of behavior mark the beginning of a long term bear market, a higher low (perhaps forming over the first half of 2023) is needed to complete/confirm that change. Note the additional changes in behavior. The 400 bps move from 0.33% to 4.33% represents the single largest bearish move since the inception of the bull market in September 1981 and the current MACD oscillator level has far exceeded the levels that marked yield highs over the course of the entire bull market. Triple Screen: Daily, Weekly, Monthly: There are several key fundamental points around rates: -The defining macro characteristic of the 40 year bull market has been the continual fall in the inflation rate. If that is changing, the secular bond trend is likely to also change. -If the trend in inflation is changing, the negative correlation between bonds and equity that drives 60/40 allocation and risk parity investing is likely to flip and become positive. In other words, bonds and equity would, outside of periods of panic, rise and fall together destroying the diversification benefit. This has been the historical norm and I expect that the market will gradually move in that direction. -The caveat being this: Quantitative easing removed the value proposition from bonds, when equities began to decline this year bonds COULDN'T provide a safe haven… they were already far too expensive, particularly in context of a Federal Reserve that was aggressively tightening monetary policy, that is no longer the case. Bonds, while still expensive can again provide a tactical hedge should risk assets weaken dramatically. -At first glance, this seems at odds with the with the change in correlation discussed above, but it is a difference between the secular tide verses the intermediate wave. -Most substantive bond rallies have been the result of a crisis that created a flight to quality. In an economy that is overly financialized and levered, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain, creating a new crisis and a subsequent flight to quality rally. While so far, there is little evidence of a systemic crisis, the lagged effect of the rapid increase in rates in an overly financialized system demands attention. Bottom Line: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the deflationary backdrop of the last several decades to an inflationary backdrop. I will be a much better seller of rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
57
Morning Update: Has Bitcoin & Ethereum Bottomed?I remember a conversation I had (totally unrelated to trading) in the early 1990's when the Internet was considered new technology . This conversation was with an older gentlemen who owned a large franchise car dealership regarding the utility of the internet with respect to his business... or his perceived utility . I'm paraphrasing, but the comment was something like... ...the Internet is only useful for price comparison...NO ONE WILL EVER BUY CARS ONLINE. PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE CARS, SMELL THE INTERIOR, TEST DRIVE THE CAR. ALL THE INTERNET DOES IS HURT MY MARGINS. I remembered that conversation just recently because (and I don't know why) but I think a lot of Warren Buffet's comments on Crypto. For someone who is obviously an intelligent man, why wouldn't he say something along the lines of... ...You know, I don't understand crypto currency. It's probably generational, but I'm sure as time goes on, our understanding of the potential benefits will materialize more so. Who knows, we could be on the verge of something big. I just don't know enough about it to form an investment thesis around. Kind of like that car dealer. Now, I want to be clear... this was no dirt lot guy. He owned a mega franchise Chevy, BMW and Mazda all on one huge parcel of land. Probably 1,000 cars in inventory worth 30M. This guy was also intelligent. But today, (if he's alive) I'm sure he wouldn't even remember such conversation. I'm positive the conversation today would be... ...I was an early adopter of the Internet in my business. I was a pioneer when few of my competitors even understood how to use the Internet. Translation: I'm a genius, I've always been one, and no one could ever say I was not a visionary when it came to the Internet. Back to Buffet...I kind of feel like he won't be around to reconcile his crypto comments. But I get the sense with his comments, I'm back in 1990 talking to a car dealer. Ok enough ranting...let talk shop. BITCOIN One disclaimer before I go into my BTC analysis. Trading View does not have all the BTC price data. I don't know why. Therefore, my cycle analysis labeling (as a Super Cycle) may not be correct. I am 51% sure BTC has NOT bottomed. Unlike other crypto charts namely Solana & ADA that have full patterns to the downside that are discernable. BTC does not. My main issue with a BTC bottom is the pattern into the November 21 low of $15,460. It best counts as a 3-wave b-wave. Now if I get down into the micro fractals I could make a weak argument for an ending diagonal. Upon completing an ending diagonal, price usually goes back to the point of origination. That did happen. So, when I say I'm 51% and not 50/50 is mainly due to pattern. For me pattern takes precedence over everything. Now, for me to change my tune on a BTC bottom, I need price to breach the area of the prior high which was a the wave 4 high on 8/14/22 of $25214.57. Also, it can't be a minor breach, I'd like price to breach $26000. So, as of now, we wait for clues to see if price will give us something definitive that its intentions are to move into a new bull phase. In the absence of those confirming clues, we could drop to the next fib of $14577. Now, it would be normal for you reading this to say, he's guessing...he really has no idea....fair enough. Here's previous BTC analysis to consider. Post 1 Post 2 I'll conclude on BTC by saying we are looking for price to get to $26,000 to confirm a SUPER CYCLE bottom. If we fail to get there, $14577 looks like the next stop for BTC. ETHEREUM Unlike Bitcoin, I have a nice clean bottoming pattern and what appears to be a 1-2 in place and now we're sub-dividing in our wave 3. When this wave 3 finishes, in my opinion, in 2024, we could be at new highs. Funny when I look at ETH it bolsters the case that BTC may have bottomed. Time will tell on crypto currency...but I can't speak for you (the reader)...but I feel like in the years to come, prices will be more reflective of the higher understanding of the value crypto affords society. Is it analogistic to the Internet? We'll see. Best to all, Chris
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by maikisch
91
Caterpillar Crawls to New HighsIndustrial stocks have outperformed in recent months as investors shift toward cyclicals. Today’s chart focuses on Caterpillar, a potential beneficiary of infrastructure spending in the U.S. and a recovery in China. The first patterns are the pair of highs from the last two years. CAT challenged $237.90 (the peak from April 2022) several times in November before breaking through in December. The stock bounced at the same level early this year, which may suggest old resistance is new support. (See the small white arrows on the chart.) Next is the June 2021 high of $246.69. Prices jumped through that level to a new high on Friday. They retested on Monday and are trying to hold it today. (Additionally, the weekly chart had a bullish outside candle.) You also have a gap higher on October 27 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. Four weeks later, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA. Finally, MACD has turned positive again after a month of declines. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:CAT
by TradeStation
6
Bitcoin (BTC) • In light of DCG troubles PA looking good. Alright. Some positive PA going as we break above the 17.1 key range. One thing that is looking weird thou is Volumes so keep that in mind as moves are not getting backed by volume. While we sustain the above 17.1 it we are in bullish territory and I'm assuming a potential target of 23-25k despite the big important 19-20k technical range as the books seem not ready to defend.. (remember to think in probabilities, not certainties.) In between that several resistances to pay attention to as well as the underlying trend basis to help de-risk based on time-time. In this video, I go through the future data and orderbook overview, as usual, to make it more interesting and educational. Hope you have a great week folks!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by D7R
32
Gold turns lower ahead of CPIAhead of the US CPI data on Thursday, gold has turned lower after reaching a major technical zone between $1878ish to $1900ish, as you can see on the daily chart of the metal. The lower end was the low created when gold rallied hard into resistance earlier in the year in 2022, which ultimately caused a massive breakdown. Now back to the same level, we are seeing a bit of a pullback here. The upper end of this range marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level against last year’s high, as well as being a psychological round handle. The bears would need to see some bearish price action here to confirm at least a temporary top is in as the trend has been bullish in recent months. Without such confirmation, the path of least resistance would remain to the upside. Today's bearish reversal could be the trigger I am after, but with CPI to come, take this with a pinch of salt. For the bulls, a clean break out above this zone would further enhance their control. Let's wait for the market to tip its hand before deciding on a directional bias. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
34