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WTI OIL Long term Channel Down holdingWTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since late July, completing 6 months of a structured downtrend. Every technical decline has been following a similar pattern, dropping -22% and -25% respectively. Right now the price is on the last counter trend rise before the final decline starts. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the spot as every MA100 1D rejection has been bearish. Targets: 1. 65.00 (marginally above a measured -22% decline). Tips: 1. The price is a strong sell every time the RSI 1D approaches the 60.00 level. Successful trade on this pattern: Please like, follow and comment!!
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
12
MicroSoft Going Hard on Google (unveils ChatGPT vs BARD) Charts first: 258.78 is double support we can count on, structure is quite strong. 313 will be our main target for 2023 and it could come fast as the news are Huge: Microsoft has announced a new version of its search engine Bing, which incorporates the latest in artificial intelligence. The overhaul deploys OpenAI's ChatGPT technology, which has taken the world by storm since its launch last year. The move is by far the biggest threat Google has seen to its dominance in web search - and marks the beginning of an AI arms race between the companies. "The race starts today," Microsoft boss Satya Nadella said. Developed by Microsoft-backed OpenAI, ChatGPT uses deep learning techniques to generate human-like responses to search requests. At the same time, GOOGLE announces their response to ChatGPT, in a race to come ahead of the popular AI service funded by Microsoft. Google’s Bard AI will soon enter beta and will be available to select testers around the world, months after OpenAI’s ChatGPT exploded in popularity. This will be interesting to watch and I do have a feeling that Google will win but the race will benefit Microsoft, at least temporarily. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FX_Professor
13
S&P500 Has it bottomed beyond any doubt?Two weeks ago the S&P500 index (SPX) closed above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of April 04 2022. Last week it tested the 1W MA50 as a Support, successfully held it and rebounded. If it wasn't for the rejection just below the 1W MA100, we would talk about the perfect break-out. Still however this is a nearly perfect recovery: a) The dominant pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which practically formed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, rebounding on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). b) The 1W RSI started rising on Higher Lows, while the price was on Lower Lows, waving a huge bullish divergence. Interestingly, we've seen the very same IH&S pattern and RSI Bullish Divergence during both of the last major Bear Cycles, the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and 2001/02 Dotcom crash. Common feature of those two is that after the index closed above the 1W MA50, it formed a Channel Up (green pattern) that led it straight to the 1W MA200. This time the 1W MA200 is a Support, but there is the Resistance of previous Lower High to consider. And that is at 4640. Valid target in our opinion by the end of Q3 if this Channel Up is materialized. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
39
Ordinals on Bitcoin - A Cybersecurity Necessity or Just Hype?With the Launch of NFTs on the Bitcoin chain by Ordinals last month, the community is divided on what this means for Bitcoin as a chain and its future. NFT's have been a mainstay on several blockchains for years now, but until now their prevalence on the Bitcoin chain was understated. With the launch of the project Ordinal Protocol, that's changing. What is Ordinal Protocol Ordinal Protocol, created by Bitcoin Core contributor Casey Rodarmor, enables users to explore, transfer, and receive individual satoshis (1 millionth of a BTC), which can include unique inscribed data such as videos and images. Inscriptions make it possible to put content in a Bitcoin transaction and assign it to a satoshi. Once mined, the inscription is made on the first satoshi of the first output of the transactions, marking that satoshi permanently with the inscribed data. This process stays entirely on the main Bitcoin blockchain and does not require a sidechain or additional tokens. The protocol is enabled by Taproot - a BTC soft-fork upgrade that was activated in 2021 and brought enhanced security and smart contracts to the network. In addition to inscribing data into a single satoshi transaction, Ordinal also allows people to assign a unique serial number to each satoshi. This means that the first satoshi's in the output of notable transactions can have value for collectors even without an inscription within them. For instance, the first satoshi of the genesis block, or the first satoshi after each halving could become collectible due to their historical significance. In a way, this compromises the fungibility of Bitcoin but in reality a parallel could be drawn between these non-fungible Bitcoin's and bank notes or coins that people collect. They do not affect the fungibility of all Bitcoin, and regular users can continue to use them normally as well. Ordinal Inscriptions are, in many ways, superior to the NFTs that most people are familiar with. Ordinals are digital artifacts which means they are decentralized, on-chain, immutable, and unrestricted. Many popular NFT projects don't actually meet these requirements as they are often stored off-chain, controlled by centralized minters, and often on very centralized blockchains. Even with its novel and Bitcoin native approach, the project remains controversial among the community. Detractors Many prominent Bitcoin developers, including Adam Back, were quite opposed to the idea of Ordinals on Bitcoin, claiming that it was a waste of block space. This also led to a discussion over whether miners should censor these resource intensive and "useless" transactions. NFTs take up valuable block space on the network that will raise the cost per transaction for all users. Full nodes need to download the inscribed data when they receive confirmed blocks. With JPEGs and Videos, these blocks can be far larger than conventional transaction blocks requiring node operators to dedicate more resources. Proponents Blockspace in Bitcoin is assigned using a free-market auction. This allows Bitcoin to be fair, open, and accessible to everyone. As such, the free-market should be left to dictate how blockspace is assigned instead of a perceived "utility". With Bitcoin's tokenomics, most miner revenue currently comes from block rewards instead of fees. Although this is not currently a concern, as the block reward continues to become smaller, the security model of Bitcoin comes under threat. A Bitcoin native application like Ordinal provides an additional use-case for Bitcoin, which is mainly used as a transaction protocol for exchanging value right now. By filling up unused block space, Ordinal transactions incentivize users to pay higher-than-minimum fees to make sure their transaction is included faster which will drive organic revenue towards miners. Although, Ordinal protocol transactions provide a potential path to addressing a long-term security concern for the Bitcoin network, it also disincentives normal users of the network in the short-term. Overall, Ordinal transactions have led to a spike in BTC network activity as well as fees. Still, as with most NFT projects, there is a high chance that the hype surrounding the project ends up fading away and Ordinal related transactions drop off again. However, the project has prompted an interesting discussion about the long term security and utility of the Bitcoin Blockchain. Regardless of whether Ordinals end up being a fad or a mainstay on the network, they've illustrated that blockspace and fees will be dictated by the free-market. We could soon see more similar projects now that Taproot allows smart contracts to be executed on Bitcoin. What are your opinions on Ordinals, NFT's, and the long term security model of Bitcoin?
B
by mintdotfinance
4
I am BACK :) Hello TradingView :) ITs been a minute since I was active in the community. Last post I made was last year in June 2022. Many things have happened that lead to my away and absence from the community, social media and more. I took a much needed break from being infront of the screen, camera and people. IT has been a good time to spend with family. But, after 8 months or so, I feel its a good time to get back to trading community and social media once again. To start sharing trading analysis, forecast, and market updates. I want to resume the market outlook/update stream like before, and start to create more educational contents for everyone once again. IF you are one of those who have supported me during the last 8 months, I greatly appreciate it. Although I dont reply directly on TradingView or other social media pages, I read the comments and feel posiitive from your encouragement. Thank you very much, and hope to see you all in the live streams to come. :) Cheers Jojo
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jojofang0901
145
DJIA daily are we ready for a major move?DJIA daily is still in its symmetrical triangle and just can't move up or down from it. 8, 20, and 50 days MA are coiling on the same levels and will produce a major move in the one direction. Breakout or down should be strong and fast. It is very close to the end of the triangle but it seems it is more bearish than bullish. Just the fact it can't move away from the lower line is bearish. Price is above r20, 50, and Big Red which is bullish, but if it drops, it will be right away below 20 and 50 days MA which will be bearish and fast. Yesterday's volume confirms huge indecision in the market which can be both bearish and bullish. RSI and MACD are for now neutral. Overall: DJIA is probably the only indices that didn't receive a buy or sell signal in our Daily morning brief and will stay like that until it chooses which side will go. Break from the triangle will very likely be very powerful and strong. With the move up even testing of ATH would be possible, but with a move below trend lines support at Big Red will for sure be tested and then likely lows from 2022. Overall same like SPY, Powell's speech could move the market.
AMEX:DIA
by Consistent_Trades
9
AI: Google challenges Microsoft and launches BardInvestment confirms how the Silicon Valley giants are ready to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology. Google (NASDAQ:{{6369|GOOGL}}) is challenging Microsoft (NASDAQ:{{252|MSFT}}) and launching Bard, the rival to ChatGPT, the OpenAI application on which the Redmond giant has bet billions of dollars. The introduction of Bard, the name seems to evoke William Shakespeare, the Bard par excellence of Anglo-Saxon culture, confirms how the race for artificial intelligence is accelerating, with Silicon Valley giants poised to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology. In recent days Mountain View had announced a $300 million investment in the start-up Anthropic, an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. And now it is pushing further ahead with the introduction of Bard, which will initially be available for testing to trusted testers and then later be introduced to the general public, similar to how OpenAI did with ChatGPT. "Secure, quality responses" - The testers have been selected, they are a geographically diverse group that will help Google improve and understand users' use of artificial intelligence. "We will combine external feedback with our internal testing to make sure that Bard's responses are quality, secure, and grounded in the real world," explained Mountain View CEO Sundar Pichai, stressing that the testing phase will help Google "continue to learn and improve Bard's quality and speed." Bard aims to generate detailed answers to simple questions. Its operation is based on LaMDA, the Language Model for Dialogue Applications that made headlines last year for being called "sentient" by one of Google's engineers. ChatGPT's success - Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT and believed to be one of the world's top three labs for artificial intelligence. OpenAI has recently become a household name for millions of people thanks to the success of ChatGPT, which, since its introduction in November, has seen a boom in users and opened a heated debate about the potential and application of artificial intelligence, forcing schools and universities, among others, to begin rethinking their teaching models. ChatGPT is indeed able to create text like a human being, using clear, defined prose and appropriate punctuation. For Microsoft therefore a huge chance to gain ground in the face of fierce rivals who, however, do not want to fall behind. As demonstrated by Google's Bard and Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to make meta one of the leaders in artificial intelligence.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by cryptohubble
6
Big Four Macro Overview: EquitiesSPX Monthly Log Scale: -Despite last years 28% decline, the defining uptrends remain intact. In my view, the A1-B1 trendline best defines the bull market but decent arguments can also be made for C-D. A test of C-D would require that the market decline roughly 30% from the most recent close. - In the absence of overtly bearish behaviors and with the primary trendlines intact, I would be hard pressed to conclude that the macro trend has changed. The secular bull remains intact and it should be given the benefit of the doubt. -That said, my fundamental world view continues to suggest that equity remains vulnerable. I believe that the primary trend is in a transition between bull and bear (or at least bull to neutral). - While still willing to take bullish trades, I will monitor closely for opportunities to sell solid technical setups into weekly perspective strength. -Generally speaking, this position in the trend continues to be characterized by poor valuations and overly developed bullish sentiment. That was certainly true going into last year, but has been somewhat addressed (depending upon the sector). Despite last years decline, I see valuations and sentiment as more consistent with a market building a top as opposed to one basing for a fresh bull run. Triple Screen (MACD Momentum): Suggests that the current weekly perspective rally is corrective to last years monthly decline. The daily (far right) is setting up a significant divergence, suggesting that the current daily perspective uptrend is quickly aging. NYSE Composite Monthly (Log): -Despite last years decline, the technical trend remains intact. -Last years high to low decline covered 25%. Post "Greenspan Put" declines have covered -42%, -60% and -40% respectively. The 25% drawdown seems incomplete to me. Particularly against an environment in which the Fed is deemphasizing asset prices and concentrating on keeping inflaiton inbounds. Fundamentally: 1) Both policy vectors (Fiscal and Monetary) are negative and are unlikely to provide support. This may change if rising rates break the weakest financial link and forces the Fed to pivot to address a systemic issue or the building reccession threatens to become a hard landing. 2) Of the 19 bear markets since 1929, 15 have been accompanied by rising inflation. Rising inflation is by far the most consistent/reliable of the bear market factors. 3) I believe that the period of very low inflation created by globalization, good demographics, and several other factors has reversed. With higher underlying inflation rates, central banks won't have the luxury of combating weak asset prices with unlimited liquidity. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
SP:SPX
by CMT_Association
24
Bitcoin: Sell Setup Retrace 20K?Are you still waiting for 50K? While this kind of forecast is completely unrealistic and out of range, it is ESPECIALLY so in light of the new SELL SIGNAL that has appeared off of the 24K resistance following Friday's NFP outcome. As I wrote in my previous analysis, when 5 waves can be clearly counted, the move has likely run out of steam. While this is still a risky short, being long anywhere from 23 to 24K poses very high risk as well. This is a perfect example of when to avoid swing trades and mitigate risk by working with smaller time frames. The next swing trade idea that I am WAITING for is the retrace into the next relevant support AREA between 22K and 20K (see rectangle on chart). If this support manages to hold, it can offer an opportunity to capitalize on a retest of the 24K, and possibly a push into the 25K resistance. This type of move can take weeks to unfold, and is relevant only to the recent bullish momentum generated off the 17K area low. I mention this specifically because when observed from the weekly time frame, the broader trend is still arguably bearish. The recent move in Bitcoin may be nothing more than an over reaction (short squeeze) following the move in the Nasdaq and weakness in the Dollar. As long as 25K is not compromised, jumping to the conclusion of a new bullish trend is premature. This is NOT about profit, it is about accounting for RISK. It is important to understand that charts provide a very limited view of potential outcomes because of the assumption that current factors driving the market stay the same. Things CHANGE very quickly and a chart cannot account for unexpected news events in the future. This is why long term opinions are about as valuable as a pet rock. Many are extremely desperate for you to believe that they know something, when in fact that are only betting on the random nature of the market to make them look right. Okay you get it, but what about all this short term movement? You hate to wait, and want action. That is what smaller time frame strategies are all about. For Bitcoin that can mean working with 4 hour, 30 minute and even 5 minute time frames. When working on such time frames, your risk/reward expectations must also stay in proportion to the time frame. If you mix expectations here, you will simply lose, a LOT. For example, 5 minute expectations average around 80 to 100 points of risk, while 150 to 200 points of profit are within reason. IF you expect MORE, you will get stopped out often. Smaller time frames are where the random nature of the market is most prevalent. An open mind and strong decisiveness are major requirements (A LOT of experience also helps). Begin with 30 minute price structures, formulate expectations, identify your levels and wait for setups. I have streamed many examples of this. Keep in mind you ALWAYS have the option to WAIT for a higher probability opportunity. This is why I always emphasize learning to judge for yourself rather than listening to those who are incapable of controlling their emotions, or push some other hidden agenda. Learn to listen to PRICE not PEOPLE. A chart offers limited information but it pays to know which information on a chart carries the MOST actionable value, Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
53
Nasdaq: Short-term bull Long-term rangeWhy market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Refer to the related video link, I explained at greater length. Or you can always visit my YouTube channel. Content: . Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies) . Subsequently the market will enter into a range (Fundamental & Technical studies) CME Micro Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 = $0.50 1 = $2 10 = $20 100 = $200 1000 = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
10
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right? (Part 2)This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K number. - Unemployment rate continues to fall further, reaching a 53-year low of 3.4% A clear re-pricing has occurred since last Friday’s better-than-expected jobs data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. With markets now expecting 1 more rate hike in May, bringing the peak rate up from the 475 -500 bps range to the 500-525 bps range. Keeping this in mind, we go back to our analysis last week to understand this situation and historical precedence. While the time for a pause in rate hike seems to be pushed back, in the grand scheme of things, we think that this has only kept the window of opportunity for this trade open for longer and at a more attractive entry point now. Without repeating ourselves too much, we encourage readers to take a look at our idea last week which explores the historical correlation between the peaking of yield curve inversion and the pause in Fed rate hikes. Link to our last week’s idea: This week, let’s tap into a different instrument. Here, we aim to take a short position on the 2Y-10Y yield differential by creating a portfolio of Treasury futures to express this view. To do so, we would have to first select the 2 instruments, the 2-Yr Treasury futures is a straightforward choice for the short end. But for the 10-Yr leg, we have a choice of the '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' vs the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures'. Digging into the contract specification, the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' provide a better proxy for the true 10-year duration exposure as the delivery requirements are for Treasuries with maturities between 9year 5 months and 10 years. In comparison, the underlying of '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' has a maturity between 6 year 6 months and 10 years. With contract selection out of the way, the next step is to calculate the Dollar Neutral spread. This requires us to identify the DV01 of the front and back legs of the spread and try to match them. This is to ensure that the entire position remains as close to dollar neutral as possible, so we can get a 'purer' exposure to the yield difference between the front and back legs, and parallel moves are negated. CME publishes articles on this topic to explain the setting up of a DV01 spread clearer than we can explain. You can find them attached in the reference section below. You can handily find the DV01 of the Cheapest To Deliver (CTD) securities on CME’s website. In this case, we are looking at the 2Yr and Ultra 10Yr Treasury Futures to set up the trade. With the DV01 of the 2Yr at 34.04 and the DV01 of the Ultra 10Yr at 96.26. The spread ratio can be calculated as 96.26/34.04 = 2.83. Rounding this to the nearest whole number, we would need 3 lots of2-Yr Treasury Future and 1 lot of Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Future, to keep the DV01 equal (neutral) for both legs of this portfolio. Given our view of the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread turning lower, we want to short the yield spread. Yield and prices move inversely, hence, to short the yield spread, we long the Treasury Futures spread as it is quoted in price. We can long 3 ZTH3 Futures (2Y Treasury Future) and short 1 TNH3 futures (Ultra 10Y Treasury Future) to complete 1 set of the spread. However, since the 2-Yr Treasury Futures has a notional value of 200,000 while the Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures a notional of $100,000, the price ratio will be 6:1 when the position/leg ratio in the spread trade is 3:1. As such the current level would provide us with an entry point of roughly 494 with a minimal move in Ultra 10yrs representing 15.625 USD and that in 2Y representing 7.8125 USD. While slightly more complex in setting up, this trade allows us another alternative to express the same view on the yield curve spread differential. Being able to execute the trade via different instruments allows you to pick the most liquid markets to trade or take advantage of mispricing in the markets. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZT1!Long
by inspirante
6
Bitcoin's Correlation to Tech Stocks About to Change?The above chart shows the correlation between Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ). The correlation between these two is the highest ever . See the chart below for a closer look. For the stats nerds out there, here are the current correlation values between BTC and QQQ (as measured by using monthly closing prices with a 20-period look back): r value is 0.936, r-squared is 0.7916, p value is 0. This extreme correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is unlikely to last much longer. Correlations between assets tend to oscillate over time. Therefore, this extremely positive correlation is likely to oscillate down soon, which will have the effect of weakening the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, or in a more drastic scenario, turn the positive correlation into a negative one. If the correlation between BTC and QQQ does in fact weaken or turn negative, then it must also be true that both assets cannot continue their strong rallies at the same time. So we're left with an important question: Which asset will outperform the other if the perfect positive correlation ends? We can use a ratio chart to extrapolate the answer: the BTC/QQQ ratio chart. So let's look at that chart. In the chart above, we see the price of Bitcoin on the left and Bitcoin's performance relative to QQQ on the right. We can see that even though Bitcoin has been on a bull run, it has already rolled over to the downside relative to the performance of QQQ. When we look at the Stochastic RSI oscillator, as shown in the chart below, we see confirmation that Bitcoin is potentially beginning to oscillate back down relative to its performance to QQQ on the weekly chart. However, look at what happens when we examine the monthly chart. The exact opposite appears to be true. (See the chart below) In the monthly chart of BTC/QQQ, Bitcoin is just beginning a major oscillation up. What we're probably seeing is the monthly candle of BTC/QQQ creating a lower wick, which is why it appears that the weekly BTC/QQQ chart is oscillating down. If we zoom out even further -- to the quarterly (or 3-month) chart -- we see even further confirmation that Bitcoin is set to outperform the Nasdaq 100. (See the chart below) In the chart above we see a perfect log growth curve of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq 100, with bullish reversal candlesticks beginning to form on the quarterly timeframe. We also see the Stochastic RSI ready to oscillate back up, meaning Bitcoin is poised to begin a period of outperformance relative to tech stocks on the higher timeframes. Other charts lead us to a similar conclusion. In the yearly chart of QQQ/SPY, shown below, we see that the Nasdaq 100 is set to underperform the S&P 500 for the long term. This suggests that the current rally in the Nasdaq 100 stocks is potentially a bull trap or a lower timeframe counter-trend. As the Nasdaq 100 is set to begin to underperform the S&P 500, the S&P 500 itself is showing downward momentum on its yearly chart. If this downward momentum sustains to the close of 2023, it will mark an incredibly rare, and also quite bearish, signal for both indices. These, and other, higher timeframe charts are explained in more depth in my post below about the coming period of stagflation. In summary, virtually all of the higher timeframe charts indicate that the period of limitless monetary easing is over, and we've entered into a new supercycle wherein the price of money will remain some degree higher. So it seems that Bitcoin continues to win. As the stock market indices break out and create what time will likely prove to be another bull trap, Bitcoin is likely on a path toward more sustained bullishness than equities. In the face of stagflation, equities suffer from both a declining money supply (as the central banks fight inflation) and declining productivity. Although Bitcoin is not immune to similar declines, its perpetual scarcity may provide a unique tailwind during the coming period of stagflation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
54
Fight or Flight?On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as "encouraging and gratifying". This was the point that markets took as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the idea that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets, potentially shortsightedly, adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying until one of two cases occurs: First, if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens markets into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the rate of CPI inflation. Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently between 4.5% and 4.75% whilst CPI inflation is at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th of February will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence for economic hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing seems certain, the S&P500 is likely to take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
by Coinrule
22
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion. During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates). Alphabet - full-year 2022 results. Net income = $59.97 billion (vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY) Operating income = $74.84 billion (vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY) Revenue = $282.83 billion (vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY) Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023. Amazon - full-year 2022 results. Net loss = $-2.7 billion (vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY) Operating income = $12.2 billion (vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY) Net sales = $514 billion (vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY) Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates. Apple - 1st quarter FY2023 Net income = $29.98 billion (vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%) Net sales = $117.2 billion (vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY) Operating income = $36.01 billion (vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY) Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tradersweekly
44
Please curb your enthusiasm in Bitcoin.At the moment there are a lot of internet "gurus" spouting nonsense. The guy in the picture is just one example. Over 500,000 subscribers being told that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will be $50,000 in the next 3-4 months and to buy it up here after this rally. They are all telling you EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR. When the price was $18,000 they were saying it was all over for Bitcoin. They are basically marketers not traders. They market for Buybit or Bitget or whoever. They make a lot of money when someone like you puts money into an exchange account. Now, turning to logic: Look at the chart, especially at the volume, which tells us a story, which I have marked. There is also the psychological story. Lots of you are nursing nasty red bags from the last consolidation around $30,000. You would love it to get there so you can get out. PSA: That's why it won't get there this time. Maybe next time, possibly after you have given up and sold your position after the next drop. All the price has done is pierce a succession of stop-loss levels to ping out the shorts who sold lower down, believing the negative press and the chat from exactly the same people who are now saying it is going up. I reckon one more pop up to the next level just north of $25,000, then a slow melting away, with you buying every dip. Patience is a virtue. It's hard to be patient I know. Hang on, this is a MONTHLY structure and this is still the beginning of the accumulation, not the end. We will tell you when we think it is the end.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
105
You Can Have the Cake and Eat it TooCBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is now at its highest level since October 2007. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sends mixed signals in his post-FOMC meeting news conference but appears more dovish comparing to previous speeches. The Committee thinks that “on-going increases in the target range will be appropriate”. These words send stocks down minutes after the speech begins at 2:30PM. However, during the Q&A session, when the Fed Chair confirms, for the first time, that “the disinflationary process has started,” the stock market rebounds strongly and finishes in the positive territory for the day. Other mixed messages: • Inflation data shows a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases; • It would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this”; • It’s “possible” that the funds rate could stay lower than 5%; • Unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year unless inflation comes down more rapidly. Actions speak louder than words. In two rate-setting meetings, the Fed has slowed the pace from 75 bps to 25 bps. The path is not likely to reverse, and future rate hikes will come down to just two options, either 0 or 25 bps. In my opinion, the terminal rate will end at 5% or 5.25% after the March and May meeting. In recent months, the “Risk” button has been pressed on for risky assets: • The Dow is up 19% since October, and the S&P and the Nasdaq are up 17% and 18% for the same period, respectively; • Gold futures rallies 21% since November, while Bitcoin jumps 58%; • Tesla and Ark Innovation ETF gain 47% and 33% year-to-date, respectively. Historically, it’s rare for the stock market to dip two years or more in a row. For the S&P 500, it only happened four times in the last 100 years. The odds favor stock investors in the Year of Rabbits after a brutal double-digit selloff in 2022. Fed rate hikes and high inflation are like a brake that decelerated the running economy car. Now that the driver’s foot is off the brake, will the economy improve immediately? Not so fast. We will endure higher costs for months to come. Take the example of food items, once the price goes up, it usually stays up for the year. Sometimes, suppliers resolve to reducing the size of package for the illusion of keeping the same price, a tactic known as “Shrinkflation”. Wages, rent, phone bill, cable TV, utility, homeowner association fees and sales tax also seldom go down. All these point to a sticky inflation. Without massive government stimulus to press the gas pedal, subdued growth is on the horizon. However, the stock market is forward looking. Investors already see an "invisible foot" on the accelerator and begin buying in the dip. On balance, I’m bullish about risky assets, but would consider protecting my investments carefully. The inversed yield curve is a proven and tested signal of a potential recession. The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread is at -64 bps after the Fed rate decision. The yield spread turned negative last July and stayed below zero in the last seven months. Major crises could break out unexpectedly, crashing our party. The year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict could intensify, tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate, and the US government might not be able to avoid a national debt default. A Hedged Position on Stock Index Futures We could consider using the CME Micro E-mini S&P futures to establish a bullish position on the U.S. stock market. The June contract MESM3 is currently quoted at 4177, which is 58 points above the cash index. To protect my position from any adverse market movement, an out-of-the-money put option could be placed at the 3950-strike. If you are more pessimistic, a lower strike of 3840 may be considered. The benefit of futures over cash index ETFs lies with the leverage. With a smaller margin deposit upfront, investment return could be amplified if the market moves in your favor. The downside is that the loss will also ramp up quickly if the market moves against you. Put options protect us from any downfall below the strike price. Unlike futures, the maximum loss from a long options position is the premium you have paid upfront. A combination of long futures and long put options is, in theory, limited downside with unlimited upside. The risk and return tradeoff are asymmetry in this case. As a result, you can have the cake and eat it too! Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
POST FOMC Analysis For The S&P 500 ES1!For traders it's not about what the Fed does or is going to do, it's about how the market reacts to what the Fed does. Today the FOMC raised rates by .25 basis points and the markets took off. As of right now the bulls are in control, but for how much longer? In today's video I go over how I will determine a market top and ways to tell if this rally still has legs. I use auto anchored VWAP, Bollinger Bands, and the RSI. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is for educational purposes only. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by anthonycrudele
18
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right?Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps hike followed by some commentary/guidance on the next cause of action. Based on CME’s Fedwatch tool, markets are expecting a last hike of 25bps in the March FOMC before a pause in the hiking cycle. Now keep that in mind. One interesting relationship we can try to observe is how the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread behaves in relation to where the Fed’s rate is. We note a few things here. Firstly, the ‘peak’ point of the 2Yr-10Yr spread seems to happen right around the point when rate hikes are paused. With the Fed likely to pause as soon as March, we seem to be on the same path, setting up for a potential decline in the spread. Secondly, the average of the past 3 inversions lasted for around 455 days, and if you count just the start of the inversion to the peak, we’re looking at an average of 215 Days. Based on historical averages, we are past the middle mark and have also likely peaked, with current inversion roughly 260 days deep. Looking at the shorter end of the yield curve, we can apply the same analysis on the 3M-10Yr yield spread. The ‘peak’ point of the 3M-10Yr yield spread is marked closer to the point when the Fed cuts, except in 2006, while the average number of days in inversion was 219 days and the average number of days to ‘peak’ inversion was 138 days. With the current inversion at 105 days for the 3M-10Yr Yield spread, we are likely halfway, but the peak is likely not yet in. (Although eerily close to when the Fed is likely to announce its last hike, March FOMC, 51 days away). Comparing the 2 yield curve spreads, we think a stronger case can be made for the 2Yr-10Yr spread having peaked and likely to un-invert soon. Handily, CME has the Micro Treasury Yield Futures, quoted in yield terms, which allows us to express this view in a straightforward manner allaying the complications with DV01 calculation. We create the short yield spread position by taking a short position in the Micro 2-Yr Yield Futures and a long position in the Micro 10-Yr Yield Futures, at an entry-level of 0.623, with 1 basis point move equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Short
by inspirante
9