Dollar Index Consolidation: Will NFP Trigger an Upside Breakout?Since its recent touch on the support zone back in August, the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a period of consolidation, characterized by multiple attempts to break through this critical support level.
Despite several instances where the price briefly dipped below the technical support zone, each time, the market witnessed a strong reversal, with bulls stepping in to defend the level successfully.
From my perspective, we are nearing a potential upside reversal, and the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday could serve as the catalyst for this move.
Currently, 102 is the key level to watch for confirmation of an upward breakout. Should the DXY break above this threshold, the next reasonable target would be around 104, marking a significant bullish shift in momentum.
Community ideas
Bitcoin Enters ‘Uptober’ After Exiting Q3 Flat: What to ExpectCrypto traders are keen to see another ‘Uptober’ — a term coined by the community to describe the outsized gains in Bitcoin prices for October. Historically, in eight of the last 11 Octobers the original cryptocurrency has pulled ahead big time. So what’s it gonna be this time? There’s a lot to unpack — let’s ride.
Bitcoin prices BTC/USD signed off for September at just over $63,000 per coin, with a modest (by crypto standards) 8% rise . But if you zoom out to wrap up the third quarter, you’ll see that prices stayed flat, tight-lipped and straight up boring. Bitcoin barely realized a gain — it went up by less than 1% for the September quarter but seesawed like there’s no tomorrow.
In true crypto fashion, the fire-breathing beast feeding on volatility went as low as $49,600 and as high as $70,000 — a wide gap of 40% from top to bottom. All who’ve been in crypto long enough are familiar with the stomach-churning volatility that can make even the most disciplined traders doubt their choices.
Speaking of volatility, traders are now bracing for what’s historically shaping up to be a solid month for Bitcoin gains. October, dubbed by crypto faithful as “Uptober,” is already here and brings with it a whole new wave of expectations.
Here’s why that is:
October 2023 — Bitcoin was up 27% .
October 2022 — Bitcoin was up 6%.
October 2021 — Bitcoin was up 40%.
October 2020 — Bitcoin was up 30%.
October 2019 — Bitcoin was up 10%.
October 2018 — Bitcoin was down 5%.
October 2017 — Bitcoin was up 50%.
October 2016 — Bitcoin was up 15%.
October 2015 — Bitcoin was up 38%.
October 2014 — Bitcoin was down 12%.
October 2013 — Bitcoin was up 69%.
What you see is that October performance is a thing — traders are already on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the next leg up. But before that, there’s a mosaic of data that needs to pan out.
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data (drops October 4): The good old jobs report will show how many new workers joined the US economy in September. Fairly low expectations this time — Wall Street is eyeballing 144,000 new jobs, about the same as the previous month . The NFP figure will be complemented by the unemployment rate, expected to stay flat month-on-month at 4.2%.
Consumer price index (drops October 10): US inflation is another big report that is likely to shake up the crypto landscape . For September, prediction gurus expect inflation to keep moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target from an August clip of 2.5% . Lower inflation is good for solidifying prospects of interest rate cuts. And that is super good for the broader investment world, cash flows and overall liquidity across markets.
Retail sales (drops October 17): retail sales are a solid measure of consumer spending. The more people buy expensive watches and things they don’t necessarily need, the better reading this report will carry. In other words, a strong retail sales figure will breathe more confidence in investors looking to jam cash into risk assets (yes, crypto included ).
All that good stuff is likely to shape the trajectory of Bitcoin prices. But — and maybe even more important in the long run — these three data dumps will help the Federal Reserve decide if it’s a good idea to chop down the interest rate and how much, following the super-sized 50-bps slash . Rate moves and broad monetary policy decisions are likely to have an impact on Bitcoin, which has been increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic winds.
For the technical minds, there is an interesting technical analysis pattern that might be worth looking into. A descending parallel channel is in the works, tracing its origins back to March 14, 2024. Fun fact: that’s the all-time record high for Bitcoin when prices peaked at more than $73,000 a pop .
Since then, prices have been gradually losing their momentum, painting lower highs and lower lows. The latest bottom (September 6), which has provided enough resistance for a solid bounce, is sitting at $52,500. The next potential leg up is expected to take the price all the way up to around $67,000 in the short term, while the next potential leg down could pressure prices to a fresh low of $51,500 in the medium term.
As traders set their sights on "Uptober," excitement is in the air, but it's not all confetti and moon rockets. October has a track record of delivering some big numbers, yes. But keep in mind that it’s not just a monthly performance number — behind it is an underlying force that has powered the price. So, should you blindly trust in historical performance? You could. But more importantly, you’ll likely be better off by preparing for what’s coming.
GOLD is Setting Up For LONGS! Prepare to BUY!Price is pulling back to the Daily +FVG, which is nested in the Weekly +FVG, which is intersected by the Swing High. Three strong confluences for a high probability LONG.
Be patient, look for price to contact the POI, and then let your valid buy setup form.
Let the rest unfold.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Nvidia - Consolidation Before -50% Drop!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is preparing for the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Nvidia is still creating pretty clear market structure and price action and therefore there is no reason to change direction or opinion. Following the previous cycles, a correction of roughly -55% is likely and Nvidia's recent consolidation is a first strong sign of bearish weakness.
Levels to watch: $120. $60
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The TradingView Show: Interest Rates and AI with TradeStationJoin us for our newest episode with David Russell , Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation . We’ll dive into the current market landscape, covering all of the following topics for traders:
1. Market Trends: We’ll provide detailed insights into major stocks and bullish market trends, focusing on META, NVDA, and the evolving landscape of Chinese stocks. Discover how hedge fund managers are navigating these markets and uncover other significant movements you might be missing.
2. Index Review and Interest Rates: Our analysis will dive into macro trends affecting the SPX and NDX, exploring the importance of major indexes. We’ll discuss how rising interest rates are influencing market behavior and the broader economic implications for investors.
3. Commodities: Get the latest updates on oil, especially in light of recent production cuts that are impacting prices globally. We’ll also discuss gold and silver prices, examining why gold has achieved an all-time high while silver remains undervalued and what that means for future trends.
4. Cryptocurrency: Take a closer look at Bitcoin’s recent performance. We’ll explore whether it is on the verge of forming a significant new trend and what factors are driving its volatility in today’s market.
5. Housing Market: Analyze current trends in the housing market and what lies ahead, especially as they relate to rising interest rates, advancements in AI, and productivity improvements. This segment will provide essential insights for anyone interested in real estate investments.
And much more! We encourage you to ask questions and share your feedback in the comments. Now, some important links for you to explore and read:
Explore TradeStation ideas on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
For important disclosure information regarding options, ETFs, and more, please visit:
1. www.tradestation.com
2. www.theocc.com
3. www.tradestation.com
Thanks for watching and we'll be back live next month!
Bitcoin: 70K Objective Within Range.Bitcoin has pushed beyond the 64K resistance but is now hesitating with the appearance of an inside bar. If the high of the inside bar is cleared, that would be a momentum continuation signal which can see price push into the 67 to 69K resistance. If the low of the inside bar is cleared, a retrace can unfold which can take price back into the 63 to 64K area (old resistance/new support). The key to navigating this is WAITING for confirmation and having your parameters and expectations predefined. Reacting to market events is typical retail behavior most often a mistake.
The illustration on my chart shows the scenario that I am anticipating over the coming week. (See my previous articles to see these play out). While there is NO way to know if price will follow this path, IF price action confirms, this scenario has a greater probability. I am able to identify these opportunities from carefully evaluating TREND and SUPPORT/RESISTANCE levels. I am simply FOLLOWING what the market is implying through price. I don't have to get overwhelmed with "fundamentals", and "news" and other propaganda because price factors in ALL the known information in the world in a given moment (Efficient Markets). If you understand this concept, it then becomes much easier to recognize opportunities and most importantly measure the associated RISK.
The arrow on my chart points to a predetermined price area (63 to 64K) to watch for If reached. This would be the lowest risk/highest probability point if confirmation appears. Ideal for swing trades especially where reward/risk can reasonably be 2:1 or greater. The reward/risk component depends on how you define risk at the time of the signal (this is what I use Trade Scanner Pro for). You can also use the next support level or candle stick low which is better than nothing.
What is also compelling about this situation is the changing interest rate environment. While the change will not have an instant to the moon effect, it will offer a more supportive environment over time. This will be ESPECIALLY important during pullbacks when support levels are tested. This charge also calls for a closer look at low priced small caps/alt coins because they are poised to benefit from the increasing money supply resulting from lower rates. NOW is the time to be looking to invest, NOT at all time highs. I will be talking more about this soon as well.
How you use this information will mostly depend on your decision making structure. A seemingly more bullish environment does not guarantee trades/investments will work out. Although it does provide for a more forgiving market. Know your RISK before you enter any type of position and this can be defined by using information straight from your chart. For example if Bitcoin confirms a long at 64K, I automatically know risk on this time frame can be at least 1 to 2K points. From there, a profit objective and sizing regime can be worked out. If you are not this organized, do NOT risk real money until you have some kind of management or decision making structure in place.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Downside Targets for CHF/JPY Amid Waning Swiss Franc AppealMarket Overview
CHF/JPY is facing downward pressure as demand for the Japanese yen rises, coupled with the Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to 1%. The Swiss franc has lost some of its allure as a safe-haven currency, while the yen is gaining traction due to increased risk aversion in the market.
Technical Analysis
CHF/JPY has reached a key support level at 168.676. Should this level be breached, downside targets include 168.170, 167.921, and 167.454. Both MACD and RSI indicators confirm selling pressure and suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.
Conversely, if buyers manage to break through the resistance at 169.898, this could signal the end of the current downtrend and the potential for a bullish reversal.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 67.14 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 65.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 72.15 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Tesla: “We, Robot” Taxi of the FutureTesla has been in the spotlight in the U.S. stock market, driven by its remarkable performance in 2024 and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Tesla shares have shown recent growth of 2.45%, remaining a key player in the technology sector, even as the market's focus has begun to diversify beyond tech giants. Looking at last year's earnings progression in December versus this year's performance, Q1 2023 vs. 2024 earnings performance was clearly lower in the current year, Q2 2023 vs. 2024 was more positive than last year. The main catalyst for the company is the impending release of Q3 delivery figures, which are expected to be announced on October 2. Analysts anticipate that Tesla will report approximately 462,000 deliveries, which would represent a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth is largely due to increasing demand in key markets, such as China, where government subsidies have helped boost sales.
In addition to deliveries, Tesla is preparing to unveil its Robotaxi on October 10, at an event that promises to revolutionize the future of autonomous vehicles. Elon Musk has raised expectations by describing this launch as the most important since the unveiling of the Model 3. While Tesla has been a pioneer in the electric vehicle market, in the field of robotaxis it has lagged behind competitors such as Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary, which currently leads the industry in the U.S. with more than 100,000 weekly trips in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix. Despite the enthusiasm, many analysts suggest tempering expectations, as mass adoption of robotaxis is likely to take at least a decade due to regulatory hurdles and safety concerns. According to experts, Tesla must demonstrate concrete technological advances and provide a clear vision for the scalability of its robotaxis in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, other companies, such as Baidu in China and Cruise in the U.S., are also making progress in developing autonomous driving. Although the road to a large-scale robotaxi market is long, this sector is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with Tesla and Waymo as key players.
In terms of its financial performance, Tesla has a solid “financial health score” of 3.0 out of 5.0, according to AI-backed model evaluations. This highlights its robust fundamentals and dominant position in the electric vehicle sector. However, the company also faces pressure from inflation and a challenging economic environment, which could affect consumer spending. The next few weeks will be crucial for Tesla. Investors will be watching for third quarter financial results and how the company responds to increasing competition and market conditions. Tesla's success depends not only on its ability to innovate, but also on its ability to navigate a rapidly evolving landscape in both electric vehicles and autonomous driving.
Looking at the technical side, currently the RSI at 67.67% slightly overbought may extend above the channel its move in the direction of $275-$300 per share, recovering prices from June last year. I feel this a cyclical company it is possible that we may see a sharp correction subsequent to $185 if results do not match expectations which should match those of the previous quarter, according to prior years data.
In summary, Tesla is at a crossroads where its ability to grow in the future will depend on how it adapts to market challenges and its ability to maintain its status as a leader in the electric vehicle industry.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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Tesla Full Analysis Weekly to 30 minute Must Watch Good afternoon everyone
In this video I give you in full detail a full analysis of Tesla where it is going and why and the tools I use to see everything in between.
If you have any questions or comments I am an open book and want to make the best videos I can for everyone.
MB Trader
Happy Hunting
[ES] Has the S&P 500 Finished Its Runup?I doubt it. That move doesn't look like it's done.
The general principle that this basic analysis follows is that the market moves in 3s and 5s. Now, that may sound a lot like Elliot Waves and it should. 3s and 5s were Ralph N. Elliot's primary discovery and contribution to the discovery of natural phenomena in markets.
That said, it is dangerous to get dogmatic about rules. The same applies to Fibonacci extensions. But when you combine "3s and 5s" and "Fibonacci" you end up with a pretty reliable pattern. When there is a three wave move in progress (which could eventually turn into a five), you can pretty reliably trade that move (up in this case) to the 0.786 trend extension (highest probability), the 1.000 extension (high probability), or it could turn into a five wave move that goes clear up to the 1.618 extension (lowest probability move).
It is not wise to be dogmatic about these strategies though, because you have to listen to the market. The market is the CEO of this enterprise, not the lines on your chart. That said, this works better than 50% of the time without question. It's a generally truthism that markets move in 3s and 5s. The challenge comes when it comes to 'wen buy, wen sell.' There is no right answer to that. Sure, the market moves in 3s and 5s, but to take advantage of it requires fluidity and a careful consideration of your (a) risks, (b) 'Bayesian priors" (if you will), and (c) the adjacent future outcomes as the come into view.
This is not an endorsement of either methodology. It is merely a demonstration of the veracity of components of those methodologies.
Trade well.
#WLDUSDT Holds Potential for a Massive Rally!Hello everyone, I’m Cryptorphic.
I’ve been sharing insightful charts and analysis for the past seven years.
Follow me for:
~ Unbiased analyses on trending altcoins.
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~ Charts supported by critical fundamentals.
Now, let’s dive into this chart analysis:
On this 2-day timeframe, WLD has broken above a key resistance trendline and is now trending above the 21 EMA.
With this breakout, WLD is aiming for $2.832, where the first resistance lies. A correction is possible after reaching this level, but in the long run, WLD holds the potential to achieve 6x-7x gains.
Key levels:
- Support: $1.76.
- Accumulation: $1.33 to $1.8.
- Initial Resistance: $2.832.
- Long-term Targets: $4.56, $6.75, $10.74.
DYOR, NFA.
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Is a Hang Seng Revival on the Horizon?The Hong Kong Index has faced challenging years since reaching its all-time high in 2018.
The downtrend accelerated in 2021, bringing the index to a low of around 15,000.
The subsequent reversal aligned neatly with horizontal resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the bears were not finished yet.
Indeed, 2023 also saw a continued downtrend.
However, and this is crucial, the index did not make a new low. Instead, the decline halted at the strong 15,000 support level.
In early 2024, a significant break above the falling trend line was observed at the end of April. The correction that followed confirmed the broken trend line, suggesting that this breakout is genuine and indicates a long-term shift in trend.
September began with a higher low, followed by a powerful surge above the 20,000 level for the first time in over a year.
This sequence of events suggests the potential beginning of a long-term bull trend, with the possibility of the index reclaiming the 23,000 level by 2025.
For those looking to initiate a long-term buy position, there are two key levels to watch: 19,500, the former resistance level, and 18,500, which now serves as strong support.
Bearish drop?USOUSD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 69.06
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 71.26
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 65.90
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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GOLD 4H ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts with our analysis playing out.
Yesterday Ema5 cross and lock above 2626 opened 2645 and 2664, which were completed perfectly!! We were then looking for a cross and lock above 2664 to open 2682 and if momentum allowed then 2699.
2682 was hit but volatile candle didn't give us enough time for the lock. However, the candle body close gave us enough time for the confirmation before the hit completing the target. The extended target to 2699 remains open that's why we call it the potential target when completing a range for the final trail stretch.
We are now seeing wick rejection at 2682 back down to 2664. If EMA5 fails to cross below 2664 and this level holds, as support, then we are likely to see another 2682 retest and our final stretch at 2699.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2626 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2626 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2645 - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2664 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2664 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2682 - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2699
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
USOIL - Short Term Buys Using Structure & Fibonacci A complete walkthrough of a short-term buying opportunity on Oil using support and resistance to confirm our decision along with the use of our Fibonacci tools to help choose out profit targets.
If you have any questions or comments please leave them below.
Akil
WHATS FLOWING!?: EURCAD | EURJPY | GBPCHF | BTCEUROANDA:EURCAD
OANDA:EURJPY
OANDA:GBPCHF
COINBASE:BTCEUR
Today's Episode of What's Flowing: EURCAD, EURJPY, GBPCHF, BTCEUR Trade Ideas
In today's episode, we will be looking at four key trading pairs and their current market movements, providing insights into potential trade setups and market sentiment.
1. EURCAD
Current Price: EURCAD traded at 1.50239, slightly decreasing by 0.04% since the last session. Over the past month, it has lost 0.19% but remains up 5.46% over the last 12 months.
Forecast: Projections suggest EURCAD could decline further, with expected levels at 1.48962 by the end of this quarter and 1.48690 in a year. With a declining trend, this suggests a potential short setup for traders looking to capitalize on continued weakness in the pair.
2. EURJPY
Current Price: EURJPY traded at 160.189, showing a gain of 0.34% in today's session. It’s up 0.70% over the past month and 1.57% over the last year.
Forecast: EURJPY is projected to climb to 161.743 by the end of the quarter and 162.624 within a year. Given its upward momentum, this pair presents a potential long trade opportunity for those looking to take advantage of its positive trajectory.
3. GBPCHF
Current Price: GBPCHF traded at 1.13158, increasing slightly by 0.05% today. The pair has gained 1.26% over the past four weeks and 1.62% over the past year.
Forecast: With forecasts indicating a potential drop to 1.11578 by the end of the quarter and 1.11645 within the year, this pair offers an attractive short opportunity for those looking to ride the predicted downside.
4. BTCEUR
Current Price: Bitcoin is trading at 57,015.7 EUR, rising 0.70% today. Over the past year, BTCEUR has seen a staggering rise of 129.62%, with strong momentum in recent months.
Forecast: BTC is expected to correct slightly to 51,739.8 EUR by the end of this quarter and could drop further to 48,987.6 EUR in one year. This indicates a potential profit-taking opportunity or a short-term pullback setup for those cautious about BTC’s extended rally.
I have a rule to follow the money rather than marry the marketThe cost to trade Bitcoin, the boring movement and other reasons have me moving away from trading Bitcoin from today.
I will be focussing on a morning market and an afternoon market
Right not it seems to be Forex in the morning and an Indice in the afternoon, namely the GPBJPY and Dow Jones
I hope this doesn't upset anyone. I have a rule to follow the money rather than marry the market
BUY GBPCHF - trade explained in detail Trader Tom, a technical analyst with over 15 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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