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😱 BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTIONI thought it was time to make a long-term chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe. I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025. I am a long-term bitcoin bull, but one has to remain realistic. The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally—every time. These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic. The long-term goal of BTC, in 2025+, is at around 150K USD imo. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price. CURRENT SITUATION $BTC broke out of the downtrend on the monthly chart. The bull and bear market after the halving lasted approx 1000 days. If we take the historical data we can see that $BTC entered the next halving with ≈ 50% down from the top. Considering this, the price of Bitcoin could be around $35k going into the next halving. I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC :) This idea only in the probabilistic way
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
141
The CFTC seeks permanent trading ban on Binance's tradingYesterday brought an intriguing development in the cryptocurrency market as Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Changpeng Zhao (Binance’s CEO), Samuel Lim, and three other legal entities operating collectively as Binance with numerous violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and other CFTC regulations. In the release document, the agency states that it seeks “disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, permanent trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the CEA and CFTC regulations,” which paints a stark contrast to a tone used in previous cases against cryptocurrency exchanges. According to the complaint, Binance’s CEO urged employees to circumvent compliance controls to maximize profits. The document alleges that for the relevant period since 2019, the exchange did not require its customers to provide any identity-verifying information before trading on the platform, failing to comply with anti-laundering, anti-manipulation, and anti-terrorist laws. Furthermore, the document alleges that the exchange’s management prompted its employees to use a message-deleting application (supposedly Signal) in order to destroy evidence about the malicious conduct. The complaint states that the defendants “conducted certain activities outside the U.S. designed to avoid CFTC regulation, such as intentionally structuring their entities and transactions to avoid registration requirements and instructing U.S. customers as well as other customers as to how to evade Binance’s compliance controls.” As if it was not enough, the document also notes that Changpeng Zhao traded on the exchange's platform through approximately 300 accounts linked to him directly or indirectly (accounts owned by Merit Peak and Sigma Chain are also mentioned in the document), failing to disclose this fact to customers while also not subjecting mentioned accounts to any anti-fraud or anti-manipulation surveillance or controls. These are just some of the highlights from the 74-page-long complaint that asserts Binance’s management was aware of the United States regulatory requirements but ignored them. As such, the lawsuit against Binance, combined with the ambitious goals of the CFTC (to impose a permanent trading ban on the exchange), may spill colossal trouble for the cryptocurrency market. Due to that, we raise a word of caution to investors; if you are naive and trusting, dismissing all of the developments as “FUD,” then you better be ready for a harsh lesson. Nevertheless, our outlook stays bearish, and we expect Bitcoin to retest its 2022 lows in the coming months. Illustration 1.01 . The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow shows declining volume, which we described as a questionable development (as for the rally's sustainability). We would like to see an uptick in volume accompanying the price drop to bolster a bearish case in the short term. The weakness in the stock market (especially the highly correlated tech sector) will also bolster this thesis (as we previously noted that a rebound in stocks would provide a temporary lifeline for cryptocurrencies). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish (weak trend) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
138
TSLA in APEX of Symmetrical TriangleHere we are looking at TSLA on the Daily TF… As you can see, TSLA has been trading within a symmetrical triangle since November of 2022. After being rejected from resistance in late February, TSLA made its way back to support, and so far has bounced towards resistance again. As you can see, price action has began tightening as it makes its way into the apex of the structure. While my stance is currently neutral on which direction TSLA will break, it is clear that there will be a break of this structure in the coming days. If TSLA breaks down, we can expect it to make a move to its lows made in January of 2023. However, if it breaks upwards, I will look for it to run into resistance at the macro down sloping resistance line… I will continue to monitor its development, and update you all as I see fit! What do you think TSLA will do next? Let me know in the comments! Cheers!!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by GarethSolowayOfficial
14
SPX | Waiting For The Miracle To ComeThis year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this makes sense. This kind of crisis (banking) has come before, so the markets are calm. A crisis comes when nobody expects it to. And by design, a crisis is an unknowing event of unknowing consequences. A bank going bust is not frightening anymore. The market expects the FED to step-in and bail everyone out. But the FED cannot possibly bail anyone out. They cannot print any more money (we might have reached a debt ceiling), and even if they could, they could be unwilling to print more money. Inflation will get worse. So no more money. Dollar has served as the worldwide reserve currency, until now. China amongst other powerful nations, collaborate into creating an alternative reserve currency. One that will be controlled by them, not by a panicking (?) FED. The FED might not be panicking, even if we believe that they are trapped. I believe that they have very good knowledge of what they do, and of the repercussions. Absurdly high interest rates can be a mechanism to increase the dollar purchasing strength. And you need purchasing power when you have enemies (Russia, China etc.) Since 2015, this has worked out tremendously well. The Dollar is making higher highs. Of course, there are many fundamentals (like the Dollar Milkshake) that push the dollar value to new highs. But interest rates are interest-ing (hahaha) to the Dollar. And the Dollar is winning battles against many countries of the world. And with lower money supply, it's value is fated to increase even further. (I like real reality, not augmented reality, that's why I used M2REAL instead of M2SL) The money supply is vacuumed back into the printer which created it. And the power of the vacuum is not big, it is exponential. The Dollar Milkshake Black Hole is now open. But how much can the FED possibly hike? The discrepancy between the FED's rate and the Market's rate is at it's highest level. The FED may not be able to hike any higher against the market's expectance. Who knows what will happen if the FED overcomes this limit... (is it even fundamentally possible?) Inflation is high and it is fated to increase even more. I have posted about it extensively. The preview of this chart idea is broken, oops... Now, oil is looking substantial signs of strength. Oil, the main inflation influencer, is showing significant signs of bottoming. Furthermore, it has retested a trendline that followed us since 2008. Long-term, the only way for Crude is up! And the only way for equities is down! Just to reach the mean, the OIL/SPX ratio has to increase by 75%. So there is much room upwards for commodities... Have you realized what SPX has shaped into? Could this be the anatomy of a bubble? And has it already broken? It seems that the recession is only now just beginning. During normal times for the US economy, equities could grow even as yields were increasing. Now we are entering a period of weakness for the economy. Something has to give, either the equities go bust, or the yield rates. (Equities have much more room to drop than Yields do) A crisis is definitely inching towards us... A final chart for today: Equities used to grow as money was created. Now this chart has immense dynamics to move downwards. In a sense, equities have MUCH room downwards, even if money gets created. This comes to prove that equities cannot absorb any more money supply. Money printing from the FED cannot possibly help equities, no matter what they do, they are trapped inside the bearish wedge. Only way for equities is down! And similarly for SPX Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. What could these charts mean? Are they of any meaning after all? A crisis is definitely itching towards us... I HAVE to test. All the time. Or I get this... this ITCH. It must be hardwired into the system or something. -Wheatley, Portal 2
SP:SPX
by akikostas
47
BTC - A bigger move is around the corner! Here's a quick look at the BTC 2 hr. chart. As we can see, the price has formed a diamond pattern, and a break, either way, will happen soon! It is important to note that there exist significant unfilled CME- and Fair value gaps situated below the current price. As a general trend, these gaps are known to be filled eventually. Thus, it would be reasonable to anticipate a price retracement to those levels. It is worth mentioning, however, that such gaps may take an extended period to be filled, though in most cases, they are filled relatively promptly. Also, the current volume is very low, indicating that a more significant move is coming! ------------------------------------------- Key Dates to Watch in March: 30 Mar: GDP Report ------------------------------------------- What's a Fair Value Gap?: A fair value gap is the difference between a financial instrument's theoretical value and market value, such as a derivative or security. It can indicate a misprizing opportunity for traders to profit by buying or selling at the misprized level. In other words, there is a gap in the price in which some open orders still need to be filled. The price will return to fill the orders. ------------------------------------------- If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D Follow me for daily profitable trading setups. BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
by MBM_Crypto
64
British Pound hits 1-month high against US DollarVolatility within the British Pound has been a considerable point of interest recently, especially since the Pound bounced back during the early part of this quarter from a sustained period of decline against the Euro and US Dollar which took place for several months, beginning late last year. Today, the British Pound is trading at the higher end of the 1.23 range against the US Dollar, which is two whole pence higher than this time one month ago. The sudden upward movement of the British Pound against the US Dollar and its sustained climb during the course of the past month has been largely down to a lower confidence in the overall United States economy following the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, and some regional banks such as First Republic, demonstrating the contagion of toxicity among the banking sector in the US. Whilst Credit Suisse is not an American bank, one of the many contributing factors toward its demise is that in 2021, Archegos Capital Management, a family office that managed the personal assets of Bill Hwang, at one time managing over $36 billion in assets, was assisted by Credit Suisse to establish itself in the United States. Mr Huang had been banned from trading in Hong Kong and regardless of this, Credit Suisse helped him rebrand his hedge fund as Archegos and move it to New York, subsequent to which he lost $20 billion and was arrested on charges of fraud and racketeering. Of this, Credit Suisse was exposed to approximately $5.5 billion. Whilst that may have taken place two years ago, it was one of the US Dollar-denominated catastrophes that led to the downfall of Credit Suisse, hence memories are long, and the US financial markets economy came under the spotlight during the demise of Credit Suisse, which took place just a short time after the demise of Silicon Valley Bank. Now, with confidence in banking at a new low across the United States, investment in that sector is being approached with trepidation, and bank stocks listed on US exchanges declined in value. The bank run which resulted in many people and companies withdrawing their funds from First Republic then escalated in that larger Tier 1 banks then began sending their customers money to the tune of $30 billion to First Republic to try to prop it up. This is the type of practice which does not instil confidence at all. Interestingly, the contagion has not reached the United Kingdom and there is no banking crisis on the British side of the Atlantic. This could be a simple explanation for the Pound’s sudden strong performance against the US Dollar, especially given that all other factors relating to high levels of inflation, and rising interest rates still continue to affect both the British and American monetary policy – neither is out of those woods, but the banking strength appears to be higher in the United Kingdom than it does across the pond. Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.
by FXOpen
2
More inflation or less inflation - what next?Short answer. Less inflation. At least for the remainder of 2023. This idea is a continuation of the Gold study recently published, which you can find below. Gold price action is a fantastic leading indicator for forecasting inflationary / deflationary periods. On the 3-month chart above Gold price action is shown on the upper chart and the lower half the current rate of inflation as recorded by the Bureau of Labour statistics. On the lower chart inflation pivots are indicated by the coloured circles. Pivots @ 5% and below are highlighted in pink, above in yellow. Looking left.. when spot gold is printing strong bearish divergence AND there is an inflation pivot at or above 5%, both inflation and spot gold fall together. This has happened every time since the 1950’s. More significant is the ‘rate of change’. Inflation / deflation by itself over an elongated period of time is a non-issue. A rate of change over a shorter period is another matter, especially when inflation is high. The harder you rise the harder you fall. What does all this mean? Significant corrections against inflated assets. Equities, housing, with the economy limping from one recession to the next just as was in the 80s. For those of you that don’t remember: “The United States entered recession in January 1980 and returned to growth six months later in July 1980. Although recovery took hold, the unemployment rate remained unchanged through the start of a second recession in July 1981. The downturn ended 16 months later, in November 1982.” It is my opinion that if a rate of inflation reduces like the early 80’s then we’re almost certainly going to see that period repeat itself over the next 2-3 years. Remember this idea is about the forecasting the direction of inflation not gold price action. However if you’re interested when gold prices shall increase then pay attention to a pivot with rising inflation (the red circles), that is the moment to be long gold, when exiting a recession not entering one. Ww Gold study
OANDA:XAUUSD
by without_worries
31
XRP: Bullish PennantRipple (XRP) technical analysis: Trade setup : Broke out of Channel Down and above $0.40 key level and 200-day moving average, which could indicate a trend reversal from Downtrend to Uptrend. Now it’s consolidating in a Bullish Pennant, which typically resolves to the upside. If so, there’s upside potential to $0.55 thereafter. Pattern : Bullish Pennant Pattern. – forms typically following a sharp advance, followed by a brief triangular shaped consolidation in price (a small change in direction), before the previous uptrend (bullish) typically resumes. The period of consolidation should have lower volume and the breakouts should occur on higher volume. Trend : Uptrend on Short- and Medium-Term basis and Downtrend on Long-Term basis. Momentum is Bullish (MACD Line is above MACD Signal Line and RSI is above 55). Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $0.40 (previous resistance), then $0.32. The nearest Resistance Zone is $0.45, which it broke, then $0.55.
Long
by altFINS
7
The ‘free lunch’ in currency hedging?Since 2012, WisdomTree has been a leader in helping investors understand the impact that currency risk can have on their portfolios. When investors allocate funds internationally, there are two sources of return: the local asset return and the return from changes in foreign exchange (FX) rates. This can be problematic during periods in which foreign currencies are depreciating against the investor’s home currency, leading to underperformance. Historically, the default allocation of a majority of investors has been to keep the equity and currency exposure combined. However, this doesn’t have to be the case and it is possible to uncouple those risks. Currencies, a significant source of risk and tracking difference A globally diversified equity portfolio, like the MSCI World point of view, is a bundle of equity and currency risk. 68% of the MSCI World is invested in US equities and, therefore, denominated in US dollars. 6% is invested in Japanese equities and, therefore, denominated in Japanese yen and so on. The exposure to currency can add to or detract from the performance of the equities themselves. This means that the performance of the MSCI World (unhedged) is quite different for an investor with the US dollar as the base currency compared to an investor with the euro as the base currency. Every year, the difference in performance between the MSCI World hedged or unhedged is significant for both euro and pound-based investors. For euro-based investors, the difference in performance driven by the currency exposure oscillated between -9.41% and +10.1%. For a British pound investor, the difference is between -5.9% and +20.4%.This embedded currency exposure also tends to increase the risk in the portfolio. Because the currency risk sits on top of the equity risk when investing in global equities, taking currency risk or not taking currency risk has to be a conscious investment decision. Currency hedging as a tactical endeavour Foreign exchange rates change over time. Many factors contribute to those deviations: interest rate expectations inflation differentials public policy growth forecast balance of payments Over the short to medium term, currencies can move quite dramatically against each other leading to potential losses or gains for investors invested in unhedged foreign equities. For investors with strong conviction on the direction of foreign currencies relative to their domestic currency, it is therefore possible to tactically currency hedge, or not, their portfolio to try to benefit from those moves. Currency hedging for the long run Whilst in the short and medium term foreign exchange rates fluctuate, over the very long term, currencies tend to fluctuate around a long-term equilibrium. This phenomenon is often called ‘long term mean reversion’. This means that for long term investors in global equities, the performance impact of currencies should offset itself over long periods of time. In other words, the performance of currency hedged and unhedged investments should be similar. However, from a risk point of view, this is not the case. As discussed previously, the long-term volatility of the unhedged investment tends to be higher than that of the currency hedged investment. A reduction of risk with zero long term expected returns sounds like a ‘free lunch’ which is why investors could look at currency hedged investments in foreign equities as their default long term investment policy. For example, a portfolio manager with a base currency of euro and a holding of 1 million US dollars of US equities can hedge the US dollar currency risk by selling a 1 million US dollar forward contract against euro for settlement in a month’s time at today’s rate. Operationally, this process can be quite cumbersome, in particular for a portfolio with multiple currencies and/or with hard to access currencies. The MSCI World comprises 13 currencies which means that investors would need to trade 12 FX forwards every time they want to hedge the currency exposure and then they would need to roll those 12 forwards on a regular basis. This is why WisdomTree has been launching currency hedged share classes for its strategies, providing turnkey solutions for their investors and their currency hedging need.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Leading Diagonal Starts a Large Zig ZagIn the world of technical analysis, patterns play a crucial role in forecasting the future movements of a financial instrument. One such pattern is the leading diagonal, which can signify the start of a more extensive zig zag formation. In this article, I will delve into the recent price movements of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and how a leading diagonal pattern has emerged as the beginning of a large zig zag formation. I will also discuss the significance of a leading diagonal in a zig zag formation and how it can serve as a valid trading signal. Leading Diagonal Pattern in SPX SPX recently witnessed a move that started around 3808 and peaked at nearly 4040. This price movement, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, is indicative of a leading diagonal pattern. As the name suggests (leading), this pattern often appears at the beginning of a zig zag formation and is a valid formation within this context. A leading diagonal is a five-wave structure, where each wave consists of three sub-waves. In the case of the SPX, we can observe this five-wave structure, which is now complete. The recent drop was expected, and the 4020 level has been a point of interest for some time. The index experienced an overthrow of this leading diagonal, and we are now below the lower trendline of the pattern. Current Market Situation and Future Projections At present, SPX is experiencing a small relief rally after falling below the lower trendline of the leading diagonal pattern. This indicates that bears are currently exhausted, and late short-sellers from yesterday are feeling the impact of time decay on their positions. As we move forward, we can expect a further move to the downside in the coming days or week, likely followed by a rally that takes the index back above the 4000 mark (potentially reaching the 4043-4050 range). It is essential to keep an eye on the 61.8% retracement level, which stands at 4043. This level could be reached within the next two weeks and coincides with the next full moon, a period that I believe may present unique opportunities. You should be on the lookout for a potentially lucrative short position if the index reaches these levels. At this time, I am not projecting any further out than the next few weeks, as the current primary path suggests a move back towards the 61.8% retracement level, followed by a potential short opportunity. However, it is crucial to keep in mind that market conditions can change rapidly, and you must remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies. The recent leading diagonal pattern observed in the SPX serves as a valid formation, signifying the beginning of a larger zig zag pattern. By monitoring the 61.8% retracement level at 4043 and the next full moon, traders can identify potential short opportunities in the coming weeks. It is crucial to remain vigilant, as market conditions can change rapidly, and traders must be prepared to adapt their strategies accordingly. This analysis serves as a guide for understanding the current market situation and identifying potential entry points, but it is essential to conduct your research and evaluate your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
SP:SPX
by bitdoctor
24
USD/CHF - Swiss franc climbs higher, SNB meeting eyedThe Swiss franc continues to rally and is trading in North America at 0.9139, down 0.37%. USD/CHF has fallen some 200 points in just one week. SNB goes for oversize hike The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 50 basis points today, bringing the cash rate to 1.50%. It was a toss-up whether the SNB would raise rates by 25 or 50 bp, and in the end, policy makers opted for the larger increase. There were strong reasons to support either move. Swiss inflation jumped to 3.4% in February, its highest level since 1993. Although these levels are very low compared to other major economies, inflation is above the target of 0%-2% and this supported a 50-bp increase. At the same time, the market turmoil triggered by the bank crisis provided the SNB with an out, if it so wished, to opt for a smaller 25-bp hike. SNB head Jordan said after the rate decision that the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse had averted a financial disaster, not just for Switzerland but for the global economy. Jordan warned that it was critical that the merger take place in a smooth manner in order to maintain financial stability. The SNB has been busy lately, providing $53 billion for the takeover and signing on to a coordinated move by six central banks to boost liquidity. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp on Wednesday as expected, but the move was a "dovish hike". The Fed changed the language in the rate statement, stating that tighter policy "may be appropriate", compared to "will be appropriate" in the previous statement. The dot plot chart indicated a forecast of a terminal rate of 5.1% for the end of 2023, unchanged from December. The Fed's battle against inflation, which is showing results, hit a snag due to the recent bank crisis which sent the markets into turmoil. The Fed made reference to the crisis in the rate statement, stating that, "The US banking system is sound and resilient", but added that it was uncertain how the fallout of the crisis would impact the economy and inflation. ECB President Lagarde said this week that the banking debacle could help curb eurozone inflation, and the same argument, I suppose, can be said about inflation in the US. The recent turmoil in the markets means that the Fed's rate path is unclear. With inflation still high, there is a need for additional tightening, but at the same time, tighter policy could worsen the stress on the banking system. The markets are expecting the current tightening cycle to end soon, with a pause and rate cuts to follow later in the year. . USD/CHF is putting pressure on support at 0.9110. The next support level is 0.8935 0.9226 and 0.9304 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
7
GOLD road to $2200+ BATTLING INFLATIONGold , known as "the safest hedge against inflation" is looking promising with the current banking crisis occurring. People are scared of banks and see Gold as a safest investment as a store of value without relying on the banks or without having USD. Some economical factors that influence the price of GOLD with the current inflation at 5%: -Inflation hedge: As I mentioned earlier, gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, the value of fiat currencies can decrease, but gold tends to retain its value. This can make gold an attractive investment in times of high inflation, as it can help investors preserve their purchasing power. -Weak US dollar: When the US dollar is weak, the price of gold in US dollars tends to rise. This is because gold is priced in US dollars on global markets, so a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for investors using other currencies. In other words, a weak US dollar can support demand for gold and increase its price. -Geopolitical risks: Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset in times of geopolitical uncertainty or market volatility. If there are concerns about political instability, trade tensions, or other risks that could disrupt global markets, investors may seek out gold as a way to diversify their portfolios and reduce risk. -Central bank policy: If central banks engage in policies that devalue currencies or reduce interest rates, this can increase demand for gold as an alternative store of value. For example, if the Federal Reserve were to keep interest rates low for an extended period, this could support the price of gold. - Supply and demand: Gold is a finite resource, and new sources of gold production are becoming harder to find. If demand for gold increases while supply remains relatively constant, this could support the price of gold.
TVC:GOLDLong
by CryptoGao1
23
T-Bond futures have completed rising wedge patternThe bear market rally in Bonds concluded with a rising wedge. The pattern would indicate a return to the lows, which is exactly what the Fed should force. The view that the Fed has turned dovish is incorrect. The Fed fully understands (or hopefully so) that a moderate or even severe recession is far better for the U.S. long-term than would be the cessation of rising rates. Generations younger than I do not understand the tremendous damage to national financial wealth that inflation can cause. I am all for a recession. Time to clean out the dead wood.
CBOT:ZBM2023Short
by PeterLBrandt
18
FOMC - is this the top of the rate cycle? Be cautious buying this uptrend, and be especially cautious trying to catch the bottom of a mediocre company in a downtrend. I don't view the current environment to be fully risk off or fully risk on, but showing signs of the last leg of the business cycle. My preference is to target 20-30% cash and focus on companies with a high sharpe ratio, and lower dependence on debt. The market has had a nice uptrend, but there is a consistent pattern of trend reversals after FOMC updates. The fed delivers a message and the market reacts. Then the market begins to shift the narrative in between meetings, only to be caught off guard by the fed remaining on course for inflation. I personally expect the fed to separate price stability from banking stability and remain on the tightening path with a 25bps increase. However, a pause in rates will likely mark the top of the rate cycle. In this chart we see the following business cycle trends: • Local bottoms in global net liquidity signal local bottoms in risk assets (Oct 2022) • The last leg of the cycle starts when the market for 2yr bonds rolls over fed funds and remains there (remains there being the key). This makes the current rate decision meaningful. • The market can continue 20-40% upward movement for 15-30 months until experiencing a credit crisis • Market bottoms are confirmed once maximum unemployment is reached • Maximum unemployment is observed to be 24-36 months from the double top of core inflation (Mar 2022) While every business cycle is unique, monetary and fiscal policy tend to adjust to conditions with similar tactics and in similar time frames. I will continue to move my assumptions outward if rate increases continue. SP:SPX FRED:FEDFUNDS
SP:SPX
by Ben_1148x2
46
Will Tesla Drive Higher?Tesla more than doubled between January and mid-February. It retraced almost half that move last month and is now trying to bounce. Will the move continue? The first pattern on today’s chart is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which the electric-car maker tested and held at the start of last week. The 50-day SMA is also rising for the first time since last summer. That may suggest its intermediate-term trend has turned bullish. Second, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to rise. Similar turns in January and last May were followed by upside in the share price. Next you have the level around $166. It was monthly low for TSLA in November and held again this month. Fourth, the stock began this week by making a lower low than Friday and then a higher high. That kind of outside candle could suggest prices are coming to life after a period of consolidation. Finally, the calendar may provide a catalyst because TSLA’s quarterly deliveries are due in about two weeks. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradeStation
12