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The moment of truth is upon us, BTC's huge potentialThis week things are very simple and the stakes are very high. In every significant timeframe, you can see how BTC is at a pivotal point but none other than the 1-week time frame gives us a better view. In this time frame alone you can see Bitcoin price having to overcome the 50MA (yellow wavy line), the 200MA (white wavy line), long-time support (thick straight white line), and midterm resistance (Thin straight white line). So what are we looking for? BTC has to jump up and close above all of these obstacles in a decisive way, anything less than that will signal weakness. Exactly what do I mean by decisive? BTC needs to have a very good week (long green candle) this or next at the very latest and close at 28k or 27k. As of right now 1 of the 4 obstacles has been conquered -- the midterm resistance, which is the weakest. Keep watching this timeframe. Hit and follow and I will post more. There's so much to unpack in this timeframe alone: The 200MA (white wavy line) has been for many years support to BTC but it was lost back in June 2022. The 200MA (white wavy line) and 50MA (yellow line) are going to make a death cross unless BTC pulls up. The thick white straight line was strong support and was lost back in September 2022, now it is strong resistance This is as hard as it gets for BTC. If it goes over decisively and it starts to close above I will be convinced of a recovery. This chart I call lines only, it has made me a lot of money due to its reliability. Candles can create a lot of noise and make a chart look too busy so I created a chart with simplicity and reliability. How does it work? When all color lines cross under the white line it's lights out and we are going down for a while and when all lines have crossed above the white line it's all good times. As you can see so far it looks like good times are ahead but I do not make a move on short-term trades unless all lines have crossed. VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoGats
44
BITCOIN The month is closing on an enormous buy signalWe only look at Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the monthly time-frame when it is necessary to keep a long-term perspective and not miss the big picture. This is one of those times as the monthly (1M) candle, following January's hyper strong rise and impressive start to the year, is now testing the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a critical Resistance and last time BTC closed above it was on July 2022. Needless to say, a close above it will be a massive buy signal. The true catalyst though may be the 1M RSI. As you see it is also testing its MA trend-line (yellow), having been trading below it since May 2022. The real interesting fact here is that every time the 1M RSI broke above its MA, Bitcoin was well past its bottom and trading on its new Bull Cycle. An astonishing feat is that the time range between those RSI monthly break-outs is quite similar, 39 months then 42 months and if it closes above it now, then 45 months. We can say that each sequence is 3 months longer. On top of that, the 1M candles that made those break-outs are not far off in terms of rises, each representing very strong monthly closings (+47%, +33%, +33% and now +40%). Based on all the above, it appears that the market is on the verge of breaking out to a new multi-month rally. Do you agree? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
36
SPX: A Dangerous Resistance. 👀• The SPX is correcting today, back to its 21 ema in the 1h chart, as usual; • In the daily chart, there’s still some upside left, as we have yet to retest the 4,100 area, but the index is quite far from its 21 ema in this time frame; • If it loses the 21 ema in the 1h chart, or does a clear bearish structure, then it might correct to the 21 ema in the daily chart, around the 3,800; • As long as the trend remains bullish in the 1h chart, hardly a sharper correction will materialize; • Therefore, let’s pay attention to the 21 ema (1h), and on how the index will react from here, as it is near the resistance at 4,100; • So far, no clear top sign. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
11
All Declines Are Not EqualIt is pertinent to remember that there are always stocks to sell into rising markets and stocks to buy into falling markets. Even in a general market correction it is important to distinguish that all declines are not equal under the surface. By that we mean that while prices may all head in a southern direction, what is important is the point from which that decline began in the more structural price pattern of each individual stock. In other words, we seek to identify what the individual price patterns technically signify in the supply and demand factors underlying the decline. In the past, we have characterized declines in three distinct patterns (Fig 1). Figure 1: Chart Pattern A (Figure 2) for educational examples): Declines that may occur within the framework of a structural uptrend in a stock. This pattern would imply that the stock had emerged from a base, or from a secondary consolidation within an uptrend and has declined, or may decline, back toward (or into) that congestion area that now represents support (or an area of demand) for the stock; or pull back within an extended uptrend to create a new area of congestion representing support. We would not expect stocks representative of this pattern technically to fall to new lows (although in any volatile environment, support levels can be temporarily breached). On balance, we would perceive these Chart A patterns to be among the market leaders, which could be bought into weakness with the longer-term trend in mind. Notice price uptrends, breakouts through multi-year resistance levels; perhaps a secondary resistance level and the Monthly MACDs on Buy signals (rising). Figure 2: Examples of Chart A: As an Educational Exercise FLEX, JBL, GFF, Monthly: Chart Pattern B (see Figure 3 for educational examples): Initial declines, which break below an established support level following an extended uptrend, frequently defining a “topping“ pattern (see arcs) and initiating a structural downtrend for the stock. The Monthly MACD has moved into a declining Sell signal (see red arrows) often with a negative divergence. Patterns of this type can be expected to fall to new lows, often following a kickback rally toward the broken support, now defined as resistance (offering an opportunity to sell into strength), and to underperform the market during weakness (go down more). This is the pattern to watch for with stocks and / or groups, to guard against a reversal of trend from positive to negative (from a trend of demand to one of supply). Some names that had continued to lift in uptrends during the initial markets’ decline through 2022 are now appearing vulnerable (see Figure 3 below). Figure 3. Examples of Chart B; As an Educational Exercise UNH, LHX, Monthly Chart Pattern C (see Figure 4 for educational examples): Secondary declines, generally occur in stocks that have experienced initial structural declines (Pattern B) in the recent past, and thereafter may have bounced into resistance (formerly support) where they encountered supply (selling) and have thereafter fallen back, sometimes establishing a trading range that is eventually penetrated once again to the downside, accompanied by a declining MACD, on a Sell signal; thus extending the structural decline already in place. New lows in price are generally established for the stock. Such stocks experience their own private corrections and bear markets, sometimes even under the surface of a rallying equity market, as well as into an overall declining market. By virtue of observing the differing characteristics of individual stock declines, one can utilize rallies to sell weaker names, but also utilize dips to accumulate stronger names, as evidenced by which of the three chart patterns a stock portrays. However, in a general market decline, whatever the pattern, one might still consider overall protective measures. Figure 4. Examples of Chart C: As an Educational Exercise AMZN, PYPL, Monthly. Louise Yamada CMT LYAdvisors LLC Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:NYA
by CMT_Association
23
Playboy Stock Options trading - Rolling puts into sharesSummary: picking through the garbage to see if any value left for future. bankruptcy or big move in 5-10 years. Rolling short puts into stock for potential change based on new catalyst of joint venture. key concepts: Sizing- Having enough but not too much of an investment idea in a portfolio. Risk/reward- Assigning probabilities to various up and down scenarios. Choosing exposure based on opportunity. Expected returns- Factoring most likely outcomes of decisions and positions. Long options vs stock for example. Survivability- Choosing a trade structure or vehicle that allows ability to endure wild adverse moves. FATSO- 5 level of analysis acronym. F- fed not pivoting yet, but hints at easing and market likes that. A- accounting wise plby is beat up and priced for potential bankruptcy at low price/sales, price/book. T- Technical trend shows its still in downtrend, some volume accumulation, way below 200 day ma S- social sentiment, used to be popular meme stock, some young crowd still follows, did nfts so associated, low hype now 0- options view is still very volatile, high IV, stock price is so low that trading the options doesnt make much sense *stocks below 5$ are penny stocks, so many institutions cant even hold the shares if their mandates wont allow. warning: penny stocks are risky and will lose you money. this is not advice. you will lose money.
NASDAQ:PLBYLong
by optionfarmers
24
Tesla Analysis 26.01.2023Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:TSLA
by basictradingtv
43
Will Exxon march higher or perform a fake out?Since our previous post on Exxon Mobil, it has increased significantly in value against our expectations. Unfortunately, with the upcoming earnings, the stock might get an additional boost in price, which is already hovering near all-time highs. As a result, XOM breaking above $114.66 will force us to abandon our price target on the downside. However, even if a breakout occurs, we will continue to pay close attention to subsequent price action and monitor volume very closely. To support the idea of a fakeout, we would like to see a continual drop in volume accompanying price growth on the daily chart (just like on the monthly chart). As for the outlook beyond the short-term, we remain worried that ranging oil prices between $70 and $85 per barrel will threaten the well-being of this stock title. Furthermore, higher taxes on energy companies, economic slowdown, and oil down more than 35% since its 2022 peak will put pressure on further price increases. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the hourly chart of XOM. The yellow arrow points to a technical glitch at NYSE, which saw multiple stock companies plunge and turn on circuit breakers. We can potentially discard this movement. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly chart of XOM. The red arrow indicates a continual decline in volume, which is a bearish technical development. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of XOM and the updated setup. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:XOM
by Tradersweekly
45
SPX Triangle Will Break Soon but Which Way?Which Way Will the SPX Triangle Break? Consider All the Arguments Ever since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 SP:SPX has been consolidating especially when considered on larger time frames like daily and weekly. This consolidation has formed what is known as a triangle pattern (or symmetrical triangle). A triangle is a consolidation pattern that represents equilibrium in the balance between buyers and sellers. The range narrows and price action compresses until the consolidation ends. The Primary Chart above shows the current triangle that has formed. It is essentially a collision between a 3-month uptrend and a 13-month downtrend (lasting over a year since January 2022 highs). So long as price remains in this triangle, uncertainty about the intermediate term direction will likely remain. Many triangles have arisen this year, and each one has led to new lows. This one may as well, as the yield curves and macro data support this outcome. But price could whipsaw out the top of the triangle for a month or two before heading to lows. All possibilities remain on the table. For further discussion on the details of this triangle, please refer to the linked chart and post under Supplementary Chart A below. Supplementary Chart A 1. Arguments for Bear-Market Continuation and Further Declines to New Lows VIX has been trending lower to new lows. But this argument cuts both ways—it lies at multi-year support as well as the support zone for this entire bear market. It’s not a spot to be complacent. On the other hand, VIX could be forming a new seasonal range lower than the past few years. The downtrend in volatility must be respected until it breaks. But the break could be vicious and fast, occurring in a matter of hours / days. For now, VIX keeps failing right at the down TL from early October 2022 peaks. Supplementary Chart B (VIX) Consider the orange-colored down trendline from mid-October 2022 highs. Price continues to fail at that down TL. But price is also in the yellow rectangle, which is the major support / demand zone for volatility over the entire bear market to date. The pink uptrend line is a multi-year uptrend line where VIX has found support since 2017. SPX shows a daily bearish divergence on RSI. But no weekly divergences yet. Stochastics and another indicator (EFI) both show clear divergences on the daily. But sometimes triple divergences form. And sometimes, these divergences are erased with higher price action. Divergence create the conditions for a decline, they don’t guarantee one. And without weekly divergences yet, this minor daily divergence is too weak a signal to take to the bank. As of the December 2022 FOMC meeting, the Fed had not paused and it had not pivoted. In fact, the Fed remained hawkish, communicating a “higher for longer” message to markets. The FOMC’s published SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) showed that rates were forecasted to peak at 5.1% (on average) which was higher than its prior rate forecast of 4.6%. The Fed’s projections also showed that it expected no rate cuts throughout 2023. In other words, higher for longer, even if rate hikes were paused. Will the Fed’s messaging and policy from December 13, 2022, remain steadfast? If so, the markets will likely struggle to find a way higher unless they continue to completely disbelieve the Fed. Note that rate markets (and equity prices) are currently disagreeing with the Fed about rate cuts later this year. That all could change on February 1, 2023. Money supply has continued to shrink. Tom McClellan said to financial media recently that M2SL has been shrinking while GDP has been growing, and this has never happened—the ratio of M2/GDP has never been shrinking this fast. Note that there is a lag b/w M2 changes and the effects on markets. But M2 has been shrinking for a while now. Note that when M2 rises faster than GDP, this can fuel rallies a year later, but this is the opposite of that scenario. However, note that US Treasury Department maneuvering relating to the debt-ceiling crisis could hamper the Fed’s efforts to drain liquidity from markets. Other than its general effect on markets, this maneuvering is well beyond the scope of this article and the author’s knowledge. Consumer spending and corporate profits cannot hold up much longer given the leading economic indicators (PMIs, ISMs, Empire State Manufacturing Index, retail sales reports from December, mortgage applications, and housing data). But equity markets don’t seem convinced. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Gold on a ratio chart to SPX (GLD/SPX) is still outperforming. This is not an all-clear signal for equities, especially the blue-chip index of US stocks. Supplementary Chart B (GLD/SPX) Typically, a bear-market bottom / final low does not happen while yield curves remain inverted. One WS analyst stated unequivocally yesterday that 85% of the yield curves are currently inverted. According to that firm's indicators, if more than 55% of the yield curves are inverted, a recession always follows. But when? The timing is the tricky part especially for traders and investors. Bear markets can fool the vast majority. The 3m/10y curve has been inverted to levels not seen since 1981. The inversion has fallen deeper into negative territory than any other inversion on the data available on TradingView’s charts. The final bear-market low typically happens after the Fed has pivoted and cut rates for some time. And remember, when the Fed cuts, it’s not because the economic outlook and corporate earnings are bright. Rather, the Fed cuts because of deteriorated economic conditions, tanking earnings and earnings estimates, horrible employment numbers (a recession). Supplementary Chart C.1 (3m/10y) For further discussion on the 10y/3m yield curve, see the post linked here: Supplementary Chart C.2 Recent PMI data from SP Global was negative economically (US Manufacturing PMI at 46.7 while December was 46.2, and US Services PMI at 46.6 while December was at 44.7) though it moderated somewhat (slightly less negative) from the prior month’s data. “The US economy started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note with business activity contracting sharply again in January. It showed subdued customer demand and impact of high inflation on client spending. January data also indicated a “faster increase in cost burdens at private sector firms. Although well below the average rise seen over the prior two years, the rate of cost inflation quickened from December and was historically elevated.” The commentary by SP Global’s economist provided along with their recent PMI report noted that “not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation as accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.” This suggests that even if inflation has peaked, it may not be heading to the 2% target as fast as it moved down from the peak to the current levels. And it implies that stagflation may be around the corner as economic growth slows but sticky inflation does not dissipate. Major past selloffs in markets have been preceded by a very low unemployment (UE) rate. The rate has been as low as 3.5% recently. One analyst, Eric Johnston at Cantor Fitzgerald, noted that investors would do well by buying markets when the UE rate is 9% to 10%, and selling the market when it reaches extreme lows from 3% to 4%. UE rates haven’t begun to significantly roll over, and the Fed has remained focused on the tight labor markets and services sectors as sources of more sticky inflation. So if PMIs from January are showing wage pressures increasing somewhat, that doesn’t suggest the Fed will be *cutting* rates soon, though a pause may be discussed as rates approach 5%. Taxes as a percentage of GDP are at the level that coincides with recessions. Taxes are 18% of GDP. 2. Arguments for a Rally That Precedes New Bear Market Lows First, a rally that breaks the down trendline does not immediately negate the bear market. The 2000-2002 bear market experienced a substantial multi-month break of its down trendline (complete with a successful backtest after the break) before the next major leg down to new lows occured. Supplementary Chart D (2000-2002 Example) SPX continues to stabilize above major support / resistance zones such as 3900 and 3950. And it has closed above 4000 three consecutive days this week: January 23, 24, and 25. When it meets the down TL, it has not been reacting lower the way it has on every other test of the trendline during this bear market. It’s spending quality time with the TL, which is a new phenomenon / characteristic when price and the TL meet. SPX continues to hold above major anchored VWAPs from August, October, and December 2022, which range from 3850 to 3900. AAPL's price action is fairly bullish in the short-to-intermediate term. Here are the bullish technicals arising on AAPL's chart. AAPL’s daily chart shows a failed breakdown beneath major support levels over the past year. AAPL broke below $134.37 and $129.04 and fell to a new low, but quickly reclaimed $129.04 and $134.37, so this constitutes a failed breakdown. The failed breakdown is visible on the daily chart, so this is supportive of prices for several weeks to a couple months. $134.37 was the level coinciding with the lows from October 13 and November 4, 2022. $129.04 was the June 2022 low, which was undercut in December 2022 and early January 2023. Price broke below all these levels and then immediately reclaimed them. AAPL’s failed breakdown coincided with a tag of the parallel downtrend channel from the all-time high. AAPL shows positive (bullish) divergences with momentum indicators on both the daily and weekly charts. AAPL remains right at or slightly above the down TL from the mid-August 2022 highs, which was a fairly steep 5-month downtrend. AAPL remains above a short-term TL from June lows, but it also remains contained in its downtrend channel from the all-time high. AAPL is in no-man’s land, with some bullish forces that brought it here (divergences and failed breakdowns) Supplementary Chart E.1 (AAPL's Failed Breakdown) Supplementary Chart E.2 (AAPL's Parallel Channel Support) NDX (Nasdaq 100) broke above its down TL (linear chart only) and has held above it as well. It also has been making higher lows since the October 2022 lows. Supplementary Chart F.1 (NDX QQQ Log TL) Supplementary Chart F.2 (NDX QQQ Linear TL) IWM broke above its down TL on both log and linear charts. But it remains at critical resistance at the $188-$192 zone. It remains above intermediate term VWAPs from swing highs and lows in August, October and December 2022 (which are around $180), but it still remains below the VWAP anchored to its all-time high. Supplementary Chart G (IWM Linear TL) HYG broke above its down TL. Like other TL breaks, this could ultimately be a false signal, but here it has persisted for some time. HYG had a breakout above its down TL in the 2007-2009 bear market driven by the great financial crisis. This breakout was a false signal b/c the bear market was not over until early 2009, when the SPX made new lows. HYG resumed a downtrend after breaking above its down TL and went back to lows again and made lower lows, a move that coincided with SPX heading to new lows in Q1 2009. HYG shows a small bearish divergence on RSI on the daily chart. Wait for a larger bearish divergence to form on both daily and weekly charts perhaps. VIX has been trending lower to new lows. But this argument cuts both ways—it lies at multi-year support as well as the support zone for this entire bear market. It’s not a spot to be complacent. On the other hand, VIX could be forming a new seasonal range lower than the past few years. The downtrend must be respected until it breaks. VIX keeps failing right at the down TL from early October 2022 peaks. Consumer spending and corporate profits cannot hold up much longer given the leading economic indicators (PMIs, ISMs, Empire State Manufacturing Index, retail sales reports from December, mortgage applications, and housing data). But equity markets don’t seem convinced. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Earnings at major publicly traded companies may not be deteriorating quickly enough to disprove the “soft-landing” narrative that pervades markets. Recession does not mean stocks go straight to lows when yield curves have inverted. Recessions take time to unfold, just as the damage to economies takes time when rates are restrictive. There is a lag. Both FTSE and DAX have taken out the highs from mid-December 2022. FTSE is approaching multi-year highs. Both have broken above down TLs from the bear market. Both have decisively reclaimed 200-day SMAs. Both have been forming higher highs and lows Multi-week bear-traps occur frequently where significant down trendlines are broken until the bear market resumes in earnings in a period of several weeks or months. The 2000-2002 bear market provides an excellent example of this. So a break to the upside in the triangle pattern on SPX may last for several weeks or even months before the real downside move begins. Just because it’s been challenging and choppy does not mean it won’t get worse and more trappy. The third year of a presidential term (US markets) is nearly always bullish. There have been exceptions according to Tom McClellan (technical expert citing 1939 as an exception to this rule but noting that Hitler’s army was marching across Poland at the time). Some have said that the most bullish quarter of the presidential cycle is Q1 of the third year (technical expert Mark Newton speaking to financial media on January 24, 2022). Breadth has been strong lately, and some technical analysts have cited “breadth-thrust” indicators as giving bullish signals. Markets continue to disbelieve the Federal Reserve. Consider the differential b/w the Fed’s forecasts and the rate markets forecasts about whether rate cuts will happen this year, and where the terminal rate will be. So even if the Fed remains hawkish at the next meetings, perhaps it won’t matter. Markets will do what they want to do, including "fighting the Fed." You don't have to fight the Fed though or any other central bank. But don't fight the trend either. The Fed’s messaging at the February 1, 2023 FOMC presser may be slightly more dovish, or it may be interpreted as dovish if Powell so much as mentions a pause in hikes, or that the FOMC is discussing a pause. Even if Powell remains hawkish, sometimes markets can interpret the Fed Chair’s statements (sometimes ambiguous) the wrong way—recall that this happened at the July FOMC in 2022, after which Powell cleared up the confusion at Jackson Hole in August 2022 (tanking markets immediately). Equity positioning remains fairly underweight US equities according to financial experts on this subject. This could lead to momentum chase higher to trap all the bears before the real decline gets underway. Maybe stocks continue higher until two things occur: EPS estimates fall further, employment numbers start getting quite ugly, and the Fed is not as accomodative as it has been in past economic recessions (because while inflation has peaked, it may not fall directly to the 2% target, and with easing financial conditions, perhaps inflation could stop falling rise in Q1 2023) Equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) has broken above its down TL on a daily close as of January 25, 2023. The offense-defense ratio (consumer discretionary divided by consumer stables) RCD/RHS shows a breakout in this ratio above 8-month highs in the ratio’s value. This potentially signals near-term strength in equity markets as offensive stocks (consumer discretionary) outperform stocks defensive names (consumer staples) ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
41
Crude oil a leading inflation indicatorTwo observation made the last two years between crude oil and CPI: 1) There were 5 waves up and 2) 3 significant peaks However, between the last 2 peaks of crude, it was a lower low follow-by its downtrend, and CPI followed this downtrend subsequently. Among many commodities, crude oil moves the most in tandem with CPI, but crude seems to lead in this study. Refer to the daily chart on your own, try drawing a downtrend line, you will see crude oil prices has broken above its downtrend line recently. If crude oil is going to transit to an uptrend from here, we will have to track CPI very closely. The inflation fear is still there. Did a video on this observation last week, refer to the link below. Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
2
Equities Set To Outperform Rickety Real EstateInvestment wisdom states that “the only bad time to buy real estate is later.” Every rule though, has its exceptions. Current US real estate is clearly in exception territory given recessionary fears, high mortgage rates, and dim fundamentals. Real estate sector is the largest store of wealth. It is also the source of significant job creation. Crisis in this sector has massive adverse consequences. Hence, policy makers typically leave no stone unturned in defending the sector. Despite the headwinds, new data released last week show rising mortgage applications on softening rates and real estate prices. This collectively makes an outright short position perilous. Instead, this case study argues that a measured approach would be a spread with a long position in S&P 500 Index combined with a short position in S&P Real Estate Select Sector index. An entry at 20.611 with a target at 22.119 supported by a stop loss at 19.749 will deliver a compelling 1.75 reward to risk ratio with ample upside and limited downside. INTEREST RATES INVERSELY AFFECT ASSET VALUES The value of a financial asset is the cumulative discounted value of all future cash flows. Higher the discounting rate, lower the value. Persistent and sticky inflation is compelling the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer. High mortgage rates are forcing out first time buyers while squeezing leveraged asset owners. Future rents discounted to present value is sharply lower relative to a period when federal funds rate was near zero. With the US Federal Reserve having hiked interest rates by 4.5% in 2022, mortgage rates have doubled in the same period, touching a 20-year high of 6.2%. This has made real estate investments less attractive. With no rate reversals in sight, mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated despite recent softening. Mortgage rates are down a full percentage point from recent peak but still double what they were a year ago. Absent a sector specific relief, real estate stocks will underperform relative to the broader S&P 500 index. Since 2017, this ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Real Estate Select Sector has risen by a stunning 54% over the last 6 years. WEAKENING US HOUSING MARKET After peaking in July 2020, new home sales in the US have trended 37% lower and down to pre-pandemic levels. Existing home sales exhibit similar trend, which have fallen for eleven (11) straight months, point to a frail US housing market. New data released last week point to rise in mortgage demand as rates soften and real estate prices ease. DISTRESSED DEBT IN REAL ESTATE & RISING REDEMPTIONS FROM PROPERTY FUNDS Global property market faces $175 billion of distressed debt. As rates rise, rising financing costs will force leveraged owners to foreclose at fire sale prices. Abrupt stop to years of easy money supply has sent shock waves to the sector. Compounded by a pandemic that has changed the way people work and live, commercial real estate owners are in a precarious place. This predicament is showing up in property funds facing rising redemptions. US-based investment manager - KKR - has imposed limits on redemption from its $1.5 billion KKR Real Estate Select Trust fund (KREST). KKR's cap on redemption echoes a move by Blackstone which announced in December that it would limit investor withdrawals from its $69 billion private real estate fund (BREIT). Starwood Capital also placed caps on redemptions late last year. Investors are hankering for redemption as fears of price correction stemming from high mortgage costs, persistent inflation and an uncertain economy amplified by recessionary gloom. GLOOMY REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK The sector is pessimistic about current and future home sales as evident from NAHB’s Housing Market Index. Over the past six months, new building permits have collapsed drastically as participants see lower demand for new homes. Vindicating these fears are a sharp drop in new building permits which are down 30%. Home order cancellations are also on the rise sharply. With all the impact combined, a rise in unsold inventory hit the markets, with marginal & first time home-buyers priced out of the market due to expensive mortgage rates. The US Federal Reserve is determined to tame inflation down to 2% even at the expense of hurting labor market. Should that occur, a soft labor market reduces appetite for expensive mortgage payments. That would set a real estate contagion in motion, pushing property prices even lower. TECHNICALS POINT TO BOUYANT S&P 500 AND SHAKY REAL ESTATE SELECT SECTOR Since bottoming in November 2022, the S&P 500 Index has rallied 11% as it faces resistance at its long term (200-day) moving average. The S&P 500 Index is trading below its point of control. In contrast, the S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector index points being overbought based on RSI and is yet to reach its long-term moving average. The index is trading above its point of control making it wobbly and prone to downward correction. TRADE SETUP Spread trade requires that the notional value of a long leg is equivalent to the short leg of the trade. Therefore, five (5) lots of long position in CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in March 2023 requires two (2) lots of short position in CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures in March 2023. CME offers margin credits for spread trades. Clearing brokers might charge differently from the Exchange imposed margins. CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures (5 lots): 5 x USD 5 x S&P 500 Index = 5 x 5 x 4015.25 = ~$100,381 CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (2 lots): 2 x USD 250 x S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector Index = 2 x 250 x 194.65 = ~$97,325 Entry: 20.611 Target: 22.119 Stop Loss: 19.749 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.75 Profit at Target: ~$7,350 Loss at Stop Loss: ~$4,200 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
20
When downside volatility becomes an advantage.It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with the S&P 500 has almost always proven more fruitful. When to take this trade you may ask? The recession bellwether indicator of the 2Y – 10Y yield spread is a simple place to start. With the benefit of hindsight, shorting each of the indexes at the peak ‘inversion’ points proves to be a decently successful strategy. Especially so using the Russell 2000. So the next question to ask is if we are near the peak point of inversion? To answer this, we have to circle back to research from last week, where we discussed the expected rate path for the Federal Reserve (Fed). In short, markets seem to be pricing in a Fed pause, followed by a pivot in the coming year. Looking back at the charts, this shift in stance (or pause) highlighted in the top chart generally marks the turning points for the 2y-10y yield curve inversion, highlighted in the bottom chart. Therefore, with markets expecting a pause as early as the first quarter, we suspect that the turning point for the yield curve inversion is just around the corner. On price action, the 1900 level proves to be of significant resistance, with multiple attempts to break through being rejected. As prices creep towards this resistance level once again, we think this might just provide another attractive opportunity for trading. Zooming out to a daily timeframe, the 0.382 Fibonacci levels marked by the previous high and low, also coincide close to the resistance levels on the shorter timeframe. The proven downside volatility, along with the coming turning point in the yield curve inversion, keeps us bearish on the Russell 2000. Additionally, the price action points to significant resistance overhead, around the 1900 level. Setting our stop at 2035 level (one Average True Range away & close to the next resistance level) and take the profit level at 1690, with each 1-point increment in the Russell 2000 futures contract equal to 50$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by inspirante
10
Game Theory and the US Debt Crisis ShowdownE-Mini S&P ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ), 10-Year Note ( CBOT:ZN1! ) True or False? • US Government has never defaulted on its debt obligations. • US Treasury bonds have always maintained AAA credit ratings. A history lesson: In June 1812, 30 years after the Revolutionary War, the U.S. declared war against Britain and Spain. In August 1814, British troops burned Washington, D.C. With the Treasury building destroyed, Uncle Sam was unable to service its debts for months. Extraordinary circumstance it may be, this was a default, nonetheless. In 2011, the federal government inched close to its $14.294 trillion debt limit. In April, the Standard & Poor’s responded by changing the outlook of US sovereignty debts from “stable” to “negative”. On August 5, 2011, S&P downgraded US credit ratings from AAA (outstanding) to AA+ (excellent). Moody’s and Fitch retained the triple-A ratings. However, they changed the US outlook to “negative”, in June and November, respectively. Global stock markets declined on Monday, August 8, 2011, following the downgrade announcement. Three major U.S. stock indexes lost between 5% and 7% in one day. What happened next blew our mind. U.S. treasury bonds, the very subject of the downgrade, rose in price! Amid the worsening creditworthiness of the US government, the US dollar gained in value against the Euro and the British Pound. This is a classic example of a general flight to safety. “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold” . Deteriorating financial conditions in the US triggers more severe economic crisis in the rest of the world. At the time, investors were concerned about a European debt crisis, and they pulled money out of Europe and into US dollar and bonds. The US Debt Ceiling Per the definition by the US Department of Treasury, the debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments. The debt limit, also called the debt ceiling, does not authorize new spending commitments. It simply allows the government to finance existing legal obligations that Congresses and presidents of both parties have made in the past. Failing to increase the debt limit would have catastrophic economic consequences. It would cause the government to default on its legal obligations. That would precipitate another financial crisis and threaten the jobs and savings of everyday Americans. Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit. The current U.S. debt limit stands at $31.4 trillion. Current Debt Ceiling Crisis Last Thursday, in a letter addressed to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the US has once again reached its debt limit. The Treasury Department started taking extraordinary measures to keep paying the federal government’s bills, but it will suspend new investments until June 5, 2023. Yellen warned both moves are subject to “considerable uncertainty” if Congress does not pass a bill to increase the debt ceiling. Highlights of current US government financials, according to USDebtClock.org: • US National Debt: $31.50 trillion • US Federal Spending: $6.00 trillion • US Federal Tax Revenue: $4.61 trillion • US Federal Budget Deficit: $1.40 trillion • 2022 US GDP: $25.93 trillion • Debt to GDP Ratio: 1.21 A comparison to data from my previous report, “The Real Cost of Fed Rate Hikes”, shows big spending just gets bigger in merely six months: • Medicare: $1.52 vs. 1.40 trillion, up $120 billion • Social Security: $1.25 vs. 1.00 trillion, up $250 billion • Defense: $776 vs. 751 billion, up $25 billion • Debt Interest: $523 vs. 440 billion, up $123 billion It’s worth noting that the Fed hiked interest rates and the Treasury got stuck with bigger interest payments. It’s like a boomerang hitting back at the US government. As I have expected, “Debt Interest” could overtake “Defense” as the third largest budget item. This could happen in the new annual budget cycle starting October, as Treasury gradually retires cheap bonds and must borrow at much higher rates. A Public Showdown on the US Debt Ceiling The White House urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling “without condition.” House Republicans, emboldened by their recent majority party control, are preparing for a hard fight. “You couldn’t just keep increasing it,” said House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. He called for cuts to avoid bankrupting programs like Medicare and Social Security. GOP lawmakers want to slash spending as part of an agreement to increase the debt limit. Some have said major spending cuts to key government programs were part of the negotiations that helped McCarthy win the speakership. Excluding the rare 1814 precedent, the U.S. government has not defaulted on its debt. However, the debt ceiling has been raised 22 times from 1997 to 2022. Concessions sought by the new Republican House majority have led to concerns that Congress could have trouble raising the debt ceiling before June. The Looming Default Deadline Secretary Yellen's early June deadline is an educated guess at best. Billions of dollars go in and out of the Treasury coffer daily. While many variables affect the government balance sheet, the biggest unknown is: How much will the government receive by April 15th? I think that the government default is closer than it appears, as Uncle Sam may get a smaller tax revenue this year. Please hear me out. The market capitalization of the entire US stock market is estimated at $40.5 trillion at year-end 2022, down $11.7 trillion or -22.5% from a year ago. An average investor might have lost 20% or more in her stock portfolio last year. A rational investor would sell the losing stocks at the year end to claim tax loss. Let me illustrate this with an example: Sherri put $10,000 each in 10 stocks in January 2022. By December, five of the stocks gained 10% on average, and the other five lost 30%. She decided to keep all the winners and sell all the losers at year end. This allows Sherri to record capital loss of $15,000 (=50,000x30%). Scenario 1 If Sherri made a taxable income of $80,000, without taking into account of capital loss, her tax bill would be $4,807 plus 22% of the amount over $41,775. $4,807 + ($80,000 - $41,775) * 22% = $13,216 Scenario 2 If Sherri claims all the capital loss in one year from her annual taxable income, her new tax bill will be $9,916, a reduction of $3,300. $4,807 + ($80,000 - $15,000 - $41,775) * 22% = $9,916 If more and more investors are doing the same thing, Uncle Sam may find a short fall in personal tax income in the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. The prospect of corporate income tax revenue is not much rosier. US companies were met by high inflation, high labor cost, high energy bill and higher borrowing cost last year. All would hit the bottom-line, resulting a smaller tax bill. Game Theory: An Analytical Framework This dark picture may actually bring in opportunities for event-driven trading strategies. First, we could use a Game Theory Matrix to analyze the situation. In summary: • Republicans and Democrats each have two options: to fight or to talk ; • If they fight hard and are not willing to compromise, the debt ceiling could not be raised, and the US would default on its debt obligations; • If one party compromises first, it will bring the other party to the negotiation table; • If both parties are engaged in serious talk, they may reach a compromise and an agreement on a new debt limit; • There will be many rounds of negotiations. The talk may not necessarily be successful. It could break down at the end, leading to a default. In my opinion, a US default is no longer unthinkable. The Republicans have good reasons to carry through their threats if they could not get the compromises they seek for. After all, the blame will mainly fall on to the Biden Administration. If a US default is what it takes to bring the country back to fiscal responsibility, so be it. Event-Driven Strategies Taking the 2011 S&P downgrade as a guide, a US default could push T-bonds up and global stock markets down. Euro and Pound could depreciate against the dollar. In retrospect, I found that the rounds of fight and talk offer more trading opportunities. Each move could send shocks and ripples through the financial systems. In Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat last June, we recognized that the Russia-Ukraine conflict moved the wheat market with battleground actions, not one time but by multiple actions. CBOT 10-Year T-Note (ZN), CME E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) and CME Euro FX (6E) are possible instruments to apply this strategy. When the odds of default and new debt ceiling are both reasonably large, Strangle Options may be applicable. I would consider setting up out-of-the-money calls and OTM puts on the June futures contracts in March. It works the same way on either ZN, ES or 6E. Debt ceiling negotiations will pick up pace after the April 15th tax date. I expect a lot of market-moving breaking news in April and May. When you hold both calls and puts, you may find that regardless of whether the negotiations advance or break down, one of your positions will gain in value. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
18
We're Hiring In Japan!Hey Japanese speakers! 👋 We’re hiring! As the largest social network and charting platform for traders and investors – used by 30 million users each month in over 170 different countries (and with Japan near the top of the list) – we’re looking for teammates in Japan who are passionate about markets to help us grow. If you’re a TradingView expert, based in Japan, can speak English and Japanese, and also have experience in social networks, this is the perfect position for you. Keep reading to learn about who we're looking for and how you can apply. Job focus: We're looking for a Community Manager based in Japan to amplify all that we do. You love creating cool content about financial markets, sharing on social media, and helping others understand how our platform works so they can make better decisions. You want to teach others about markets, learn more about markets, and share the TradingView brand across the web. Key responsibilities: -Manage our social media channels in Japan, including our TradingView account on TradingView, Twitter , Line, Youtube, and more! -Work with influencers and key partners to help us grow our reach and make sure they are using TradingView to the best of their ability. -Bring engaged user feedback to the team so we can improve our platform. -Explore ways of reaching new audiences who have yet to learn about TradingView, like live video, ideas, chats, webinars, events, and co-branded content. -Conduct regular data analysis and reporting to show the team your progress over time. You have: -An interest in trading and investing, with a deep understanding of how TradingView works. -A passion for social media, content, and working with influencers. -A love for meeting new people and helping others to make sure they have the best experience possible. -Fluency in English and Japanese -1+ years experience working with digital communities whether it’s social media, email, partnerships, and/or customer support. -Experience working in a fast moving, collaborative environment, with respect to both projects and content creation. If you’re interested in this role, please apply by commenting below. Remember we are looking for candidates who speak both English and Japanese! We will use your TradingView profile as a starting point to see if you're the perfect candidate, and then reach out with a private message. Keep in mind that we are always looking for talented team members . So if we don't reach out to you right away, stay patient, and down the road we can connect once again. Thanks for being a member of TradingView and we look forward to meeting everyone!
TVC:NI225
by TradingView
63
Big Four Macro: Bonds Part 2In last week’s macro outlook post we covered the outlook for intermediate and long bond yields. The analysis concluded that the long term technical trend has changed from lower to flat/neutral but that more work (i.e., a higher low) is needed to definitively turn the macro trend higher. That piece is linked below in the related idea section. 10 Year Yield Weekly: After peaking at 4.34% in October, 10s have declined into the first confluence of support. The confluence is defined by 2 channel bottoms, the fibonocci retracement of the last wave higher, an internal trend line (not shown and slightly violated) across the 3.04% - 3.25% highs and the last violated pivot @ 3.25%. Additionally, the move from 4.34% has covered about 100 basis points, consistent with the last two primary corrections. This is the markets first solid opportunity since the October high to test meaningful support. Either, it bases here for a move back toward the 4.34% October high or fails and cuts much deeper, perhaps as far as the .382% retracement (2.86%) of the entire structural bear market. If the market does successfully base, the nature of the move should offer significant insight into the balance of the year. Early in my career I was obsessed with Elliott. But after years of effort, I wasn't able to develop it as a reliable trading methodology. However, those years led me to believe that markets do often move in three and five wave sequences. But if I can't immediately identify an obvious primary sequence with a quick glance, then a count isn't reliable enough to use. Even then it is only useful only for context and then only in conjunction with a broader understanding of price volume relationships and trend. Bond yields appear to have completed a clear five wave move from the March 2020 low to the October 2022 high, leaving them vulnerable to correction and suggesting an intermediate high that should hold for several months. 10 Year Ultra Futures Daily: When a weekly chart is resting at an important juncture, I like to drop down to the daily chart in order to assess the likely hood of it holding or failing. For this view, in order to assess volume I switch from yield to price. Ultras are into a zone of strong daily perspective resistance defined by the confluence of the .50% retracement of the 122-21 - 113-15 decline, the December 2022 high, volume profile, and the June 2022 pivot low @ 121-19. It is also taking more volume to produce gains, suggesting that supply is becoming more aggressive as the market moves higher. Three drives to a high (see linked related ideas) and the failed breakout above the 122-18 pivot all increase the odds of the resistance holding. A show of weakness that destroys the uptrend would strongly suggest a completed test and set the stage for a broader pullback. Seasonal Tendency (US30Y Futures): Bond prices have very strong seasonal tendencies. They tend to set important intermediate highs early in the year before declining into mid-year. Conclusions: The monthly/macro trend has changed from lower to neutral, but yields need to make a higher low before definitively making the case that the new trend is higher. The weekly chart is testing a solid support confluence. The outcome of that test should help define the markets behavior over the next 3-4 months. The weekly correction that began at the October high does not look complete. The daily perspective rally that began last October is faltering. Signs of supply are developing and reliable seasonal tendencies are turning negative (yield up/price down). When combined with a strong confluence of weekly support there is a good chance that yields will begin to move back toward their October highs. The characteristics of that rally will be important in determining if it is simply a test of the October high that eventually leads to a much deeper retracement (2.50% or so) or the beginning of a new leg higher. A failure to hold the support confluence would strongly suggest that a much larger retracement of the two year old bear market was unfolding. Targets for that retracement would fall in the 2.25-.50% zone. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
15
"BREAKOUT MOVE" NEAR,.....A big breakout move in the stock market, is very near. The S+P 500 DAILY CHART shows the "indecision triangle" ( Shown here, along with RSI Indicator)" tightening" , preparing you in advance that it's coming. And it is backed up by the 50 and 200 Day Moving Average's on the S+P 500, "tightening" into a smaller and smaller" triangle price band"... as well. The Fed Meets Feb.1, to announce their latest decision on interest rates, and the stock market is trying to position itself to be on the right side of that decision. Be careful here,... as market volatility will certainly increase substantially, as that date and decision draws increasingly near. Remember, a big breakout move in the market is near.... SPX Last 3272.60 THE_UNWIND 1/21/23 Woods Of Connecticut
SP:SPX
by The_Unwind
48
Bitcoin BTC price. Our expectations for the coming daysToday, we will offer you several possible trades on the BTCUSDT pair, and it's up to you to decide whether they are worthy of your attention or not. Today, the expiration date for Options & Futures on a number of financial markets. Expiration is bound to cause increased volatility, as it is a mandatory one-step settlement of previously concluded contracts. Someone will sell, and someone will buy, and the trading volume will be huge. This is our expectation for today: - Most likely, shorts will first try to push the price down as low as possible in order to settle at the lowest possible price. - And then many shorts will close positions. Closing a short position is market orders buying. Buying at the market orders usually provokes impulsive and strong growth. Since we can't really estimate how strong the volatility will be today, we put our expectations into 4 trades that fit within the framework of our risk and money management: 1) Entry $20301, Stop $19799, Take profit $22384, P/L 4.1/1 2) Entry $19411, Stop $18759, Take profit $22384, P/L 4.5/1 3) Entry $18771, Stop $18139, Take profit $22384, P/L 5.7/1 4) Entry $18201, Stop $17644, Take profit $22384, P/L 7.5/1 You can agree with these trades and try to trade them, or you can disagree and not trade them. However, you are obliged to write a comment under this idea and like it, so that TradingView can notify you that we have updated the idea and summarized the results of this trading situation. We would also like to note that all of the above trades fit into the structure of a possible continuation of the growth of the Bitcoin price, which was presented earlier: 1-day timeframe 1-week time frame 1-month time frame In total, the crypto market capitalization grew +20% over the month _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Long
by P_S_trade
65
Is Bitcoin considered bullish now? Let's see.I'm back! I wasn't around for a while, but my legacy was. Bitcoin behaved on the patterns I mentioned in my last idea. The price got support on the dynamic and static support levels and pushed back up. Now it's a good time for a bit of an update: Look at the RSI, indicating in a normal range, not oversold or overbought. Meaning the price has more room to go higher. Although there are two resistance areas on the way up, each has the strength to hold the price and challenge the market. The solid resistance shown on the chart has intense selling pressure inside it. My prediction is that once the price reaches that solid resistance, it will start an ascending or descending channel, with that area being the upper band of it. Now let's check the Bollinger Bands: Guys, this is a Weekly chart, meaning it's better and more accurate for long-term analysis. After a long time, the price has reached the upper band of the weekly Bollinger Band. We haven't had this experience since 2021, and the price was more likely to push even higher each time this happened. Overall: What I see is a bullish market. Let's stick to this chart, and I'll update it once I see significant changes in the market. Please note that fundamental market news can change the direction and behavior of the market. Do you agree with this chart? Let me know if you do, and if not, challenge it. Thank you for your time; I hope this was helpful.
by ShawnMCR
56