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Bitcoin - A Small Or Big Pullback?Bitcoin has had an explosive month of price discovery, as over the course of the last four weeks we've climbed above our previous consolidation range and reached new yearly highs. Data from Glassnode indicates that we are still in the third wave of investor accumulation. Research has shown that in all previous market cycles, there was a pattern of Bitcoin accumulation. 1. The first wave occurs shortly after the All-Time High of Bitcoin in a Market Cycle, when price rapidly moves away (down) from that high level. 2. The second wave occurs during the depths of the Bear Market, when the price floor for that cycle is being discovered and tested. 3. Third third wave occurs after the cycle bottom, when prices begin ticking up in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving. It's important to note that in the last market cycle, there was a significant correction following the third wave of accumulation, which ultimately led to prices trending down until March of that year of the halving. Bitcoin has currently reached a High-Volume Node on our Volume Profile, indicating that this is an area of heavy potential supply or selling pressure. Our Senior Analyst Alexander had originally called for a $35,000 top for Bitcoin prices in 2023. Putting this together, we notice that a large gap was created in Bitcoin's price movement over the last four weeks. We anticipate a good chance for a short-term reversal to re-visit those price levels. This will give us an opportunity to gauge whether: 1. Bitcoin establishes previous resistance as support, and ranges in anticipation of a further breakout. 2. Bitcoin fails to establish previous resistance as support, and decisively breaks back down into a previous trading range. Conservative traders can consider taking profits on BTC long positions, and waiting for confirmation of flipped resistance before establishing a new tranche of long interest. Should Bitocin break previous resistance, we reccomend short-selling positions into the end of the year and potentially much of Q1 '24. Aggressive traders can also consider taking profits on BTC long positions, and establishing short-positions early, whether just for the re-test of the Fair-Value Gap, or to attempt to time the big swing of Bitcoin's correction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CrackingCryptocurrency
27
Microsoft Bullish Cup and Handle Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT A bullish monthly and weekly chart: ✅Monthly MACD Cross ✅ Long Term parallel channel intact ✅ Above 200 day & week MA ✅ Cup and Handle (with a high handle - Preferred) ✅ Good Risk: Reward Ratio at 7.6 (51%+ vs -7% loss) ⚠️ Stop loss levels on chart 🫡 A great set up. Those that are patient could wait for a potential pull back (arrow on chart) as we are reaching into overbought levels on the RSI on the weekly. It would not be unusual for Microsoft to pull back 5-8%. The R:R would be significantly improved if you waited and if it led to an entry from approx. $350 (after a 5-8% pull back), this would line up with the 200 DSMA also. However there are no guarantees of a pull back. Those half as cautious could enter half a position here and see what happens and place another entry at $350. All in all the $330 - 335 red box area on the chart is an absolute stop loss level. If this level is lost I would be out of the trade fast. So you have options with this set up: 1) Entry here with a tight 7% stop. 2) Half a position here and half at approx. $350 with a stop at $335. 3) You wait for $350 and you place your stop at $330. These all result in a similar loss of 5 - 7% in the event the trade fails. The upside potential is always 50%+. You can always cut early also at target one and take something at the 26% profit level. It important you take full responsibility for your trade, position accordingly and be ok with the small 5-7% loss as it will likely happen, we are only leaning on the probability that maybe 60-70% of the time these trade set up provide us the return we want. I have not really ventured into the earnings or dividends however they are both positive contributors to this trade as earnings have been excellent and dividends whilst minimal, are dividends at the end of the day. We are here for the trade and play a set up off the chart. The fundamental's are just nice framing for the stock in our minds eye. PUKA
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by PukaCharts
38
Meta Might Break OutMeta Platforms has consolidated for several months, but now the social-media giant could be attempting a breakout. The first pattern on today’s chart is the $328 level. It was the high on February 2, 2022, immediately before the stock’s biggest drop ever. (The selloff was prompted at that time by weak results and business challenges involving Apple.) META tested that zone on October 11-12 before pulling back. But last week it returned to close slightly above it for the first time. Remaining here or continuing higher may confirm a breakout. Second, a series of higher weekly lows may suggest longer-term buyers are active. Third, the stock has danced around its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However the faster SMA remains above the slower one, a potential sign that the longer-term trend is still bullish. They’re also above the 200-day SMA. Finally, you have fundamentals. META’s earnings, revenue and users topped estimates on October 25. The stock initially fell on worries that violence in the Middle East could hurt advertising. That may create potential for buyers to come off the sidelines if worst-case scenarios don’t pan out. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:META
by TradeStation
8
If you could only use one indicator, what would you pick?Here's a question for you: pretend that you can only use one indicator from now until the end of time. What indicator would you pick? Write it in the comments below. Don't worry, this is just a hypothetical question. 🤗 The comments should make for a fascinating read for all of us. Remember: pick only one indicator and that's it. Bonus points if you provide a little explanation about that indicator and why it matters to you. In doing so, you may help some traders discover a new indicator for their needs. So, let's hear it! Write your single favorite indicator, one that you could use forever, in the comments below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
402
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsIn this video, we delve into the recent surge in gold prices, driven by a combination of factors. On Friday, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields experienced a decline following disappointing U.S. jobs data, solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt its interest rate hikes. The October job growth figures fell short of economists' projections, with only 150,000 jobs added compared to the anticipated 180,000. Additionally, wage inflation cooled, indicating a potential easing in labor market conditions. It is crucial to note that if the labor market continues to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve will be unable to maintain its hawkish stance. This data reinforces the notion of a Fed pause, which has contributed to the rise in gold prices. Furthermore, the dollar index (.DXY) experienced a 1% drop, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reached a low not seen in over a month, further bolstering gold's appeal. In light of the ongoing Middle East conflict, investors are now pricing in a 95% chance that the U.S. central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in December, compared to the previous 80% prior to the release of this data. These insights are based on the CME FedWatch tool. XAUUSD Technical Analysis: In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities. The $2,010 zone will remain our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then the breakout/retest of this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if selling pressure persists below $2,010 just as it had done in the last 5 months, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,900 zone. Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Discover how escalating Middle East tensions and renewed decline in 10-year Treasury yields and their impact. Stay informed for strategic investment decisions. #GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets #USDebt 📺🔔💼 Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
14
History is Repeating Itself, Just FasterA little brief before I start into this. I got started investing prior to the 1987 stock market crash and have always been amazed at the stock market for what it can do in a short period of time. People experience the market in so many different ways and I was fascinated by the mass-hysteria, psychology, economics and politics that surrounded the entire 1987 crash. I will say that since I experienced the crash of 1987 and there has still been nothing like it since. The flash crashes, the GFC and many other "sharp drops" are nothing like the speed and power and dislocation of the 1987 crash. So, with that in mind, here is a pattern to compare the 2020 crash with the 1987 crash in context to the massive upwave from 1974-2000 and 2007. So, to begin, the 1987 crash lines up with the 2020 crash when you use the 1974 low as a comparison to the 2009 low. Then, as life has it, things happen a little faster so this pattern speeds up a little. You can copy it yourself, just then line up the 1987 crash to the 2020 crash. And here we are, right on track. Post-1987 crash the world was a very scary place in so many ways. It was actually quite scary. The banking system was falling apart because of the 1986 tax law change which bankrupted the S&L's to the biggest bailout in US history. George Bush Sr, was president and he was very similar to Biden, making mistakes domestically and internationally. He started up the Drug War which destroyed civil liberties in so many ways, much like the draconian lockdowns for Covid. I did put this long term forecast on long term charts years back here at TradingView so you can review those. This would have been good to have right in front of us before. I missed that chance. Reagan had one good term before he had trouble with Iran-Contra funding by selling drugs to finance wars in foreign countries. 1985-1987 was a bad time with trade frictions with Germany and Japan due to a strong dollar and major tax law changes which destroyed real estate, much like 2007 led to the 2009 GFC. Then we had Bush follow Reagan and he wasn't effective as a leader. His famous "Read my lips, no new taxes" happened right before he raised taxes Sadly, we then had Clinton come in and take over for 8 years and his first attack was on health care, which ended badly but moved him to be more centrist. Al Gore as VP helped to foster internet growth with tax advantages and boom, we had the technology boom leading into the bubble of 2000. So, the future should write itself from here. Let's look ahead to 1992-2000 ahead with 1993-1994 being a sideways grind with a giant short squeeze in T-Bonds bankrupting Orange County and knocking Long Term Capital Mgmt (hedge fund) to its knees. More correlations to follow and hopefully we have a new technology like the internet was at that time, to drive accelerating growth. It could be the electrification of vehicles and transportation for its massively more efficient energy consumption. Time will tell! Enjoy. Tim November 8, 2023 11:17AM EST
SP:SPXLong
by timwest
79
Pinefest #1 WinnersThe winner of Pinefest #1, our first Pine programming contest, is alexgrover with this script . Alex is one of our Pine Wizards , and a well-known Pine programmer in our TradingView community. Alex will receive 500 USD and TradingView merchandise. The five runners-up are: Trendoscope ImmortalFreedom SimpleCryptoLife jason5480 SamRecio They will receive TradingView merchandise. Congratulations to all our winners, and warm thanks to all participants. Pinefest #1 was an unqualified success. We were very pleased to see our vibrant Pine community participate, and were impressed with the number of high-quality entries. Fractions decided the final outcome. We will continue to issue Pinefest challenges periodically. You can expect a few every year. Upcoming challenges will explore a variety of aspects of Pine programming. Participants to our next Pinefests should keep in mind that it's important to read the challenge very carefully, to ensure you understand it correctly. It's also essential to produce complete publications for your entries, including a useful description. We are looking for high-quality publications, where descriptions are as important as code. — The PineCoders team
AMEX:SPY
by PineCoders
22
Why Is Gold Outpacing the Stock Market?Looking back to 1928, when the time series for the S&P 500 began, U.S. equities have had an average annual price return of 5.9%. But gold isn’t far behind with an average yearly gain of 4.9%. It can be instructive to reprice equities in gold terms by dividing the S&P 500 index by the dollar price of gold. The S&P 500 to gold ratio has been through broad swings over the past century, with stocks falling by 86% in gold terms between 1929 and 1942; rising by 1165% versus gold from 1942 to 1967; falling by 95% versus gold from 1967 to 1980; soaring 4000% versus gold between 1980 and 2000; and then falling by 89% between 2000 and 2011. More recently, the S&P 500 rose by 350% versus gold between 2011 and 2021 but has since dropped back by around 15%. Gold tends to outperform stocks during periods of fiscal and monetary expansion, price instability, and periods of geopolitical conflict and uncertainty. As such, one might wonder if gold might be the outperformer for the remainder of the 2020s. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GC1!
by CME_Group
15
Bearish Dollar Breakdown, Fuel For A Year-End RallyKey to much of the market’s late 2022 and first-half of 2023 rally was a general move lower in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Mostly a short play on the euro, the DXY is a key macro indicator – when it’s rising, it is considered a ‘risk-off’ environment for stocks while significant equity bull markets have featured sideways or downward moves in the greenback. Nothing is set in stone, though, and there have certainly been periods where both the S&P 500 and the buck moved higher in tandem. Today, though, it’s clear that the usual negative correlation is in play. Just take a look at last week. The SPX enjoyed its best week since November last year as the DXY suffered its worst weekly decline since July. The dollar had been on a great run for much of the second half – with the Invesco Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) rising in 13 out of 14 weeks, undoubtedly inflicting pain on stock market bulls. That trend may have ended just in time for the usual November-December equity rally. This week’s chart illustrates a bearish breakdown in the US Dollar Index. The DXY had steadied itself in a range between 105.50 and 107 during October. Last week, and so far this morning, the index is under the key 105-105.50 zone. There’s now a bearish measured move price objective to just under 104. Now, the dollar does not have to collapse to get stocks trending higher over the months ahead, but a bearish DXY bias would be another bullish piece of evidence for investors to consider as strong seasonal trends persist in the next two months.
TVC:DXYShort
by mikezaccardi
12
Can DraftKings Overcome Key Technical Levels?Primary Chart : DraftKings Inc. Weekly Price Chart with Fibonacci Levels and Downward Trendline from All-Time Highs DraftKings Inc., an innovative sports-betting company, has been one of the hottest stocks of this week after it beat earnings expectations and raised revenue guidance. Many are likely chasing the stock's price here without any discipline whatsoever, being driven by fear of missing out and the possibility of untold gains from a former darling of growth investors. The magenta trendline on the primary chart, which is logarithmically scaled by the way, shows that the downtrend remains intact despite today's powerful rally. This downward trendline could be broken, by the way, if momentum is sustained by bullish seasonality and tailwinds into year end in a pre-election year. But a shorter-term down trendline has been decisively snapped with today's upside push, and this suggests near-term strength for DKNG. Supplementary Chart A And DKNG gapped above its key 50-day SMA today as well. Supplementary Chart B But this post does not recommend shorting or longing this stock; instead, its purpose is to analyze NASDAQ:DKNG and consider its current position in light of a severe bear market in 2021-2022 and a euphoric bull-market run in 2020-2021. With discipline, some trading profits might be made long or short given this stock's inherent volatility—the stock rose about 15% today and about 25% this week alone. But without risk management, this stock could easily obliterate anyone attempting to gather quick profits on a short-term to intermediate-term time frame. The stock is extended here after it gapped above key moving averages. It also has reached critical resistance at the .618 Fibonacci retracement after breaking above the 50% retracement on October 31, 2023. The .618 Fibonacci retracement lies at $34.25, a few cents above the high of the week and the day today. A bit of consolidation of today's move may provide traders with a bullish view into the new year (a time frame of about 2 months) a reason to buy the dip. But caution is warranted into 2024 and 2025—can technological innovation and earnings surprises be enough to sustain this stock? Your comments on this particular question are welcome. There may be room for some debate as macro headwinds cannot prevent rallies like the one seen in equity indices like SP:SPX and some growth stocks. But there is a decent likelihood that macro headwinds may work against DKNG as long as interest rates remain high and inflation does not disappear. The Federal Reserves funds rate is now at 5.25% to 5.50%, a 22-year high. And quick look at the TradingView's Financial overview shows that DKNG has not had positive net income yet. And its financial history is not that long yet: It was founded in 2011, and it has only been public since 2020. So despite the major earnings beat and positive guidance today, DKNG still lost $0.61 per share. Unprofitable growth stocks do not perform as well in high-rate environments. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:DKNG
by SquishTrade
24
MSFT: Double-Top, or Bull Flag Breakout?NASDAQ:MSFT is showing a mixture of bullish and bearish signals; however, the most concerning of which is an active rug pull event which kicked off on March 16, 2023 at $265.20 via the 2D timeframe: This coincides with a large RSI divergence event occurring on the larger timeframes; highlighting the potential for a double-top: That being said, there appears to also be a major bull flag forming on the larger timeframes: If we dive a bit deeper into the smaller timeframes and analyze the bull flag, we see another active rug pull at $345. This signals a high likelihood NASDAQ:MSFT will hit $345 in the near future: With a high degree of both bullish and bearish signals, it can be hard to discern where NASDAQ:MSFT might be headed next. We are keeping a very close eye on the AVWAP derived from the March 16 event as a guiding factor. Should the price significantly break below this level, we expect further drawdown to $265 will occur.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by RocketTraveler
34
The road higher will be bumpyWhile bullish in the long term, we are still awaiting further pullback in the price of gold after its impressive run above $2,000. Right now, we are paying close attention to support and resistance levels near $2,009, $1,985, and $1,959. If the price of gold manages to hold above $1,985, it will be positive; the same applies to the breakout above $2,000 and resistance near $2,009. However, if the price fails to stay above the mentioned level, and we see more decline in RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart, it will alert us to more downside; in such a case, we would expect gold to drop below $1,960 (and maybe even to as low as $1,925). Yet, regardless of our opinions, it is important to note that there is a FOMC meeting scheduled for today, which can have a volatile impact (to either side) on the price depending on the FED’s decision and the chairman's tone during the press conference. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover below 70 points, which raises our suspicion (though it still could be just a fakeout). Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
27
Swiss Franc Rides High on Investor Flight to Safety?Investor flight to safety might provide a favorable outlook for the Swiss franc this week. Swiss franc against the USD and GBP might be the most interesting considering the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) hold their policy meetings this week, where they are both expected to keep rates exactly where they are. These pauses by the Fed and BoE might contrast too sharply with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), whose Vice-Chairman made some hawkish comments over the weekend, pushing back against expectations that the SNB is done with its rate hikes, and cause some rumblings in the USDCHF and GBPCHF. Investor risk-aversion has already caused the Swiss franc to hit a high not seen since 2015 against the Euro. Euro Area inflation is also due this week, so this pair might also be appropriate to watch this week. Regarding the Middle East conflict, latest developments have seen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deny they would agree to ceasefire, drawing parallels to US retaliation to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. In this way, we might expect drawn out conflict, and the desirability of the Swiss franc rising.
by BlackBull_Markets
9
Bitcoin Bull Run Precedes Ethereum RallyDays of triple digit volatility and rampant amateur speculation are gone. Unlike the overblown enthusiasm which defined the peak of 2021, investors now are more measured and discerning. 2023 has been defined by (a) discrete and information fuelled rallies followed by unprecedented low volatility, and (b) rise of traditional finance entrants in digital assets. Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied sharply relative to Ethereum (“ETH”), pushing BTC-ETH ratio to its highest level since 2021. Several factors point to a potential reversal in the ratio. Investors can deploy CME Micro BTC and Micro ETH Futures to harness gains from eventual reversion. BTC surged 20% during the past week driven by excitement over the anticipated approval of a BTC Spot ETF. Large liquidations triggered as BTC prices rose on its re-emergence as a haven asset as discussed in a previous paper . BITCOIN IS A HAVEN (AGAIN) In October, BTC’s correlation with gold rose while correlation with Nasdaq-100 has inverted suggesting that investors consider BTC as a haven rather than a risk-on asset. The case for BTC as a haven derives from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply. BTC has played its role as a haven previously. In March this year, during the US regional banking crisis, BTC surged 40%. BTC also rallied 20% at the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict but soon pared those gains. Given the repeated pullback in its prices, question around BTC’s ability to deliver as a safe haven remains. Assigning BTC a haven status could be a tad bit too early. It is a new asset. It faces regulatory ambiguity. It remains under-invested relative to traditional safe havens like gold and treasuries. Notwithstanding that BTC is new, it is the most popular and widely tested cryptocurrency. Flow of assets from riskier crypto to the safety of BTC during rising uncertainty partly contributes to haven flows into BTC. SHORT SQUEEZE ACCENTUATED BITCOIN’S RALLY Recent rally was punctuated by heavy deleveraging in BTC derivatives. During the long squeeze in August, 64,000 BTCs were liquidated. In the following period, only half of these long positions returned. These positions were not spared either as large liquidations occurred on October 17th and 23rd leading to unwinding of more than 60,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode The size of liquidation was like those in Jan 2023 when prices definitively broke above the $20k range, suggesting that this washout may be adequate to cement a major psychological price level. AWAITING A BTC SPOT ETF The latest development in the BTC spot ETF saga comes as an appeals court upheld the ruling against SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s spot ETF application based on concerns that market manipulation is not addressed sufficiently. The court held that SEC’s decision was arbitrary, capricious, and unenforceable. This time around, the SEC stated it will not be appealing any further. The SEC’s easing stance is also echoed in the modest feedback response to other spot ETF applications. Many now believe that all spot BTC ETFs will be approved together and probably before the deadline of January 10th. Approval of spot BTC ETFs is expected to make the asset available to a wider audience in a familiar Tradfi product structure making BTC go “mainstream.” Spot ETFs will spur greater demand for spot BTC from ETF manufacturers. When gold ETF was first listed, incremental fund flows translated into higher demand for physical gold. ETF listing and BTC price run is not a given as regulatory concerns remain. Prices have struggled to sustain ETF excitement driven rallies not once but thrice in 2023 due to slow developments compounded by a harsh macro backdrop. The risk that the current rally will pullback persists. Earlier this week, price action was significantly influenced by investors speculating on the approval of Blackrock spot ETF (IBTC). The rumours have been spurred by the listing, delisting, and relisting of the ticker on Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website. BITCOIN BULL RUN PRECEDE ALTCOIN RALLIES In stark contrast to BTC’s rally, other major cryptocurrencies have lagged pushing BTC dominance to its highest since 2021. ETH has rallied 15% over the past week. ETH underperformance relative to BTC has pushed the ratio between them to levels unseen since 2021. Altcoin underperformance is unusual. During past BTC rallies, ETH price tops lagged BTC tops by a month. This is a consequence of capital rotation within crypto. In past rallies, asset rotation can be seen in three distinct waves starting with (1) increase in BTC capital, (2) ETH rotation, followed by (3) increasing stablecoin flows. MARKET METRICS AND ON-CHAIN SIGNALS A raft of market metrics points to bullish sentiment in crypto markets due to resilient Long-Term Holders (LTH), limited profits at current levels, and strained supply which is expected to be exacerbated by demand from spot ETFs. More importantly, market metrics indicate a higher bullish sentiment for ETH. FUTURES AND OPTIONS POSITIONING Leveraged funds have built up net short positioning over the last few weeks in BTC futures. Contrastingly asset managers have setup net long positioning. In options, BTC full size options have a bullish P/C ratio of 0.51 and Micro BTC options have a P/C ratio of 0.76. In contrast, leveraged funds bullish on ETH have switched from net short to net long positioning last week. Full size ETH options have bullish P/C ratio of 0.38 and Micro ETH options have P/C ratio of 0.38. Overall, leveraged funds and option markets are more bullish on ETH compared to BTC. TRADE SETUP BTC prices may pullback relative to ETH in the short term given price divergence. CME’s suite of crypto futures can be deployed to harness gains from this trend reversal. The hypothetical spread posited in this paper consists of two legs: (1) long position in Micro ETH futures expiring on November 24th ( METX3 ) and, (2) short position in Micro BTC futures expiring on the same date ( MBTX3 ). Each lot of Micro ETH futures provide exposure to 0.1 ETH while each lot of Micro BTC futures provides exposure to 0.1 BTC. To balance notional values, nineteen lots of METX3 are required for each lot of MBTX3 at current prices ● Entry: 19.090 ● Target: 17.58 ● Stop Loss: 20.000 ● Profit at Target: USD 276 ● Loss at Stop: USD 169 ● Reward to Risk: 1.6x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Long
by mintdotfinance
16
A Traders’ Playbook – Defence remains the best form of attack Equity continues to trade heavily, and while we are getting to a point of extreme fear, the price action, and the bearish momentum in EU, AUS200 and US equity indices, suggest this is still a sellers’ market. While we have some big catalysts due this week, I still think we must navigate a passage of darkness before we see light in this tunnel. The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remains a dominant market consideration and the market still sees an increasing risk the conflict will not be contained with other players stepping into the conflict. A near 3% rally in Brent crude on Friday testament to those worries, with the move above $90 seeing traders bid up gold to $2006, with gold's role as the preeminent portfolio hedge once again confirmed. A move into the April/May supply area of $2050 seems perfectly feasible, and the bullish momentum in the price, and the ease by which we’ve seen gold push through well-watched resistance levels, suggests the path of least resistance remains higher and pullbacks should be well supported. The BoJ meeting could be a real curveball and while the odds are we see it proving to be a low-volatility event, if the BoJ does tweak the YCC cap to 1.5% it could trigger a wave of selling through global long-end bonds (yields higher). This would likely see sizeable gyrations play through all markets, with the JPY – which has stolen the crown from the CHF as the no.1 geopolitical FX hedge – likely to rally hard. Gov Ueda has aimed to be more predictable than former gov Kuroda, so with recent press suggesting a tweak to YCC could be on the cards, the prospect of change to policy is 50:50. We also get the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding activity throughout the week. To those who aren’t fixed-income traders, this can be an event that isn’t too well-known. As we saw in August, when the Treasury Department detailed increased auction size in its financing plans, it proved to be a key driver behind US Treasury yields rising sharply from 4%. Once again, this event does have the potential to create some big vol in bonds, which could spill over into FX and equity markets. This time around, could we see lower increases in supply, which in turn supports USTs? Staying in the US, while the FOMC meeting can never be ignored, traders get a thorough read on the US labour market and wages/earnings. On the docket, we get ADP payrolls, the Employment Cost Index, JOLTS job openings, Unit Labour Costs, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls. US swap pricing has a 25bp hike in December priced at a 20% chance, so big numbers in this report could see that probability rise, which would likely see the USD break out of the current sideways consolidation. Corporate earnings get another run past traders, with 24% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Apple is the marquee name to report, with the options market pricing a move on the day at 3.7% - the market focused on iPhone demand and consumer trends in China. Rallies have been sold of late, with price now below the 200-day MA for the first time since 2 March 2022. It promises to be another lively week – good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: Month-end flows – talk is pension funds and other asset managers rebalancing in favour of selling of USDs. China manufacturing and services PMI (31 Oct 12:30 AEDT) – the market sees the manufacturing index at 50.2 (unchanged) and services index at 51.8. EU CPI (31 Oct 21:00 AEDT) – while EU growth data seems the more important factor, we could see some volatility in the EUR on this data point. The market consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 3.1% and core CPI at 4.2%. EURCAD is trending higher, and I like it into 1.4750. BoJ meeting (31 Oct – no set time) – the BoJ should increase their inflation estimates, but the focus will fall on whether there is an adjustment or even full removal of Yield Curve Control (YCC). This is where the BoJ currently cap 10-yr JGB yields (Japan Govt bonds) at 1%. The consensus sees no change to YCC at this meeting, but there is a 50:50 chance we see the cap lifted to 1.5% - an action which could see JGBs sell off (higher yields) and see global bond yields higher in symphony. It could also see the JPY rally strongly. US consumer confidence (1 Nov 01:00 AEDT) – The market expects the index to pull back to 100.0 (from 103.0) – unlikely to cause to much of a reaction across markets unless it’s a big miss. US Treasury November Refunding (30 Nov at 06:00 & 1 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – the US Treasury Department (UST) will offer its gross financing estimates for Q42023 (currently $850b) and end-of-quarter targets for its cash balances. It is likely that the gross borrowing estimate will be lowered to $800b, perhaps even lower. The lower the outcome the more USTs should rally and vice versa. On 1 Nov we will see the UST announce the size of upcoming bond auctions across the 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10- and 30-year bond maturities. The market expects auction sizes to increase across ‘the curve’ by around $1-2b for each maturity. As we saw in August, the higher we see these taken the greater the likely reaction in US Treasuries and subsequently the USD. FOMC meeting (2 Nov 05:00 AEDT) – The market ascribes no chance of a hike, so guidance from the statement and Powell’s press conference is key. One can never overlook a Fed meeting, but in theory, we shouldn’t learn too much new information and this should be a low-drama event. BoE meeting (2 Nov 23:00 AEDT) – UK swaps price a 4% chance of a 25bp hike at this meeting, and around a 1 in 3 chance of a 25bp hike by Feb 24. The split in the voting could also be important, with most economists leaning on a 6:3 split. The market feels like the BoE are done hiking, with cuts starting to be priced by June. US ISM manufacturing (2 Nov 01:00) – The consensus is for the index to come in at 49.0 (unchanged). Consider that the diffusion index has been below 50 since October 2022, so a reading above 50.0 could be modestly USD positive. US JOLTS job openings (2 Nov 01:00) – Last month we saw a big increase in job openings and further evidence the US labour market is tight. The consensus this time around is for 9.265m job openings (from 9.61m) – risky assets will want to see this turn lower again with reduced job openings. US nonfarm payrolls (3 Nov 23:30 AEDT) – With so many labour market and wage/earnings data point due out this week, the US NFP report is the highlight. After last month’s blowout 336k jobs print, the current consensus is for 190k jobs, the U/E rate at 3.8% and average hourly earnings at 4%. Brazil Central Bank meeting (2 Nov 08:30 AEDT) – The BCB should cut by 50bp. Earnings – This week we see earnings from UK, EU and US listed names coming in thick and fast - 24% of the S&P500 market cap report this week. Numbers from HSBC (Monday), Caterpillar (Tuesday) AMD (Tuesday), Qualcomm (Wednesday), Apple (Thursday) should get the attention.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
22
Can You Explain Your Trading Strategy in 3 Sentences?Can you explain your trading strategy in 3 sentences or less? Go ahead and give it a try in the comments below. This is an important exercise for any trader of investor as it demonstrates mastery of an existing strategy. Meaning, if a trader knows their strategy inside and out, and has practiced it or modified it over a period of time, they also can explain it quickly and succinctly. • Are you a swing trader? What criteria determines a trade? • Are you a value investor? What metrics do you use? • Are you an algorithmic trader? What code powers your trading? All of these questions and more go into explaining your trading strategy, which is ultimately the process you're using to trade markets. However, it's often observed that new traders don't have a strategy. Instead, their trades are impulsive and random. As a community, we can use the comments section below to showcase our individual levels of expertise, helping new traders along the way and watching pro traders innovate. We look forward to seeing what everyone writes in the comments below. In addition, the more people who share, the more we can learn. Be sure to like, follow, and comment on the traders who have the most interesting answers. You may find a great follow and improve your social feed here. - TradingView Team
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by TradingView
323