Candlestick Analysis
Bitcoin : A good day to start the weekHello fellas, welcome back to my technical analysis about bitcoin. My apologize to not very active lately due to some other eve that we have to took care in last week. But, the most important thing is that we're back now and I promise you that this update will be very interesting and very detail. The clue is that this week is gonna be awesome!
First, let's see the close of this week's candle which is for me looks bullish and indicate a bullish movement for intra day level. the wick toward the down side is showing how the bulls is having a good work to defend the territory of $8400 as a support in short term.
Second, I see a very awesome graph on MACD indicator. On the histogram, it has ticked up to the positive side and the moving average is having a good golden crossover to the upside.
Third, on the price action, I still see a probability of the price to test again the blue region as the previous broken support that is now become resistance. And from here, I will look for higher time frame bias which show you 2 kinds of perspective. The first one is the bullish perspective (white) and the second one is the bearish perspective (yellow).
$9680 level will be a good area to watch in mid term. Hoping the price will touch this area soon.
BULLISH REJECTION CANDLE EXAMPLESThese candles are a representative example of what a bullish rejection candle looks like. I have also added rules to identify a bullish rejection candle. These rules can vary somewhat but the more the rules are relaxed the less the candle acts to reject lower prices.
GBPJPY 15M SCALPING US SESSION INSIDE CANDLE BREAKOUT STRATEGYINSIDE CANDLE STRATEGY
What is an Inside Candle
1. Previous candle engulfs next candle.
2. 2nd candle high is lower that 1st engulfing candle.
3. 2nd candle low is higher than 1st engulfing candle.
INSIDE CANDLE METHOD
1. Incoming Trend
2. Inside Candle – Opposite Color
3. Enter Break of Engulfing Larger Candle
Inside Candle method is a great short term consolidation indicator.
If your trade plan contains breakouts and consolidation then this method is for you.
This is a great way to find smaller consolidations quicker which will give you more trades on whatever time frame you want to look.
On a daily chart it may take weeks for a consolidation pattern to form.
An Inside candle represents a pause, consolidation or compression in the market after a big move.
Often you will also see reduced volume on the inside candle.
Inside Candle method is a pause or a reversal of the trend . So it is more effective if there is an incoming trend.
Enter a break of the larger engulfing candle in the direction of the break.
Enter with a Stop Order a few pips above or below breakout level.
Which trades you take is a matter of preference.
Some like reversal trades or trend following trades.
Scalping inside candle pattern doesn't matter what direction you may go.
Trend following you will want to see this in context of a larger trend.
Take all the trade setups and just shut down the ones that don't preform.
Trade Management: Enter 2 trades
Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR for both trades
First Take Profit is 1 x ATR for 1st trade
2nd trade there is no take profit.
When 1st TP is hit move 2nd trades SL to breakeven.
Let profit run on 2nd trade by following/trailing SL.
If a candle closes back inside the larger engulfing candle close down trade.
Watch for a setup for the next breakout.
BEARISH REJECTION CANDLE EXAMPLESThese candles are a representative example of what a bearish rejection candle looks like. I have also added rules to identify a bearish rejection candle. These rules can vary somewhat but the more the rules are relaxed the less the candle acts to reject higher prices.
USDZAR Key Zone Study - With Video Analysis - Read WithinWe had a great time this past Friday studying USD/ZAR and key zones/levels pertaining to this pair.. To Watch the replay of ForexNChill visit the YouTube video at www.youtube.com
This idea is being posted as an educational post, following the study from the ForexNChill, where I share how I study this pair. A few things to note as we study:
1. Note price has rejected key levels in the market with a few failed attempts to rally to higher prices.
2. Price has fallen beneath the 200 MA on the daily timeframe; given so, we are open for further movement to the downside as a possibility.
3. The short term 9 EMA and 50 EMAs have crossed to the downside. This could mean that we will see lower prices.
5. The 50 EMA has crossed beneath the 200 MA which could signal a death cross, with further movement to the downside.
Given this, my inclination is that we have a bit more room to the downside to go; we could see a pullback or a retracement before seeing a continuation of price further down. HOWEVER, It is also not out of the question that we will see a strong bounce around key levels as noted and movement towards the upside. Watching price action at the key zones as noted is key to analysis. There are a few possible scenarios that could happen. Hence the various directions noted. However, again, my overall inclination is that unless we see a notable reversal or strong bullish momentum building, I think we have more room to the downside to go.
For now, study, watch and observe price action around these key levels. As price approaches these levels study candlestick analysis. Time will tell and the market will tell us in time what it wants to do. Never presume on the market, but allow price action to show you along the way.
To see the study on this pair and how to use market structure and price action to study this pair visit www.youtube.com
To receive personal mentorship or join the educational platform to which I belong visit www.celestefrederick.com
Visit the Contact Me page on my website and type in FREE RESOURCES to get free resources to help you learn how to study price action.
Always use proper risk management and use your confluences before entering.
An Ongoing Study of Entries/ExitsIf you wish, you may consider following this Trading Idea. Here, I will attempt to focus on doing entry/exit analyses using specific trading strategies/methodologies. This Trading Idea will contain both focused and current chart analyses. My intent is to keep the content as clean, concise, and educational as possible. Please feel welcome to ask questions or contribute suggestions.
Historical Study :
Steve Nison:
- Candlestick analysis
- COP (Change of Polarity) breakout strategy
- Fibonacci Retracements
Tom DeMark:
- TD Sequential analysis
Arrows = Entries/Exits
ETHUSD PRICE ACTION PIN BAR TRADING STRATEGYPin Bars
This price action strategy will focus entirely on a price pattern called pin bars. This candle is simply the price hitting a certain level and being “rejected” from it. This bar has a long tail on it with a small body.
There are different types of characteristics for a particular pin bar. For instance, the long end of the candle is the wick, while the small end (the opposite side of the body) is called the nose. Most agree the long tail, or “wick,” will be at least two-thirds the total length of the pin bar itself. The other part of the pin bar will naturally be, at the most, one-third of the candle. The open price of the candle and the close should be relatively the same price. This forms the ‘Body.’
To confirm a pin bar, you must wait for the candle to close. Just because the current candle “looks” like a pin bar, does not necessarily mean it is. in the example above, the price movement could have continued upward and closed at the top of the candle. In turn, it would not be considered a pin bar.
Basic Guidelines:
Timeframe - ANY
Market - ANY
Indicators - NONE
OTHER - Trend lines, horizontal lines, support resistance lines (anything to help you find these areas).
Step 1: Find a Pin Bar On Your Chart.
*Note This is a stock price action strategy, and a forex price action strategy. I will use a currency pair as an example. Price action charts are with any market and timeframe.
First, identify a pin bar that has formed.
Step 2: Look for Past Price Action to Determine Why The Pin Bar Formed.
Why did the reversal suddenly hit a price, and then continue back to the upside?
Let’s zoom out a bit on a daily chart. We'll figure out if we can see anything that explains what happened.
Note** you can either look at the current time frame you are on, in this case, a 1-hour time period. Or you can bump up one or two periods to gather information.
Resistance in the past can mean support in the future. What happened is the price hit this level but failed to break through it.
Since the long bullish wick formed, we decide it is time to enter this trade based on what we learned from the prior days.
This is what Price Action is all about. No two trades are the same. However, we can take what we've learned from the past. Then make the best judgment as to where the price is going in the future.
You are essentially like a detective when you trade price action. The point is to gather many pieces of evidence to back up your conclusion. You are trading with confluence. Sometimes simple is best. Study the charts and form an educated conclusion as to where the price will go.
Step 3: Trade entry
You just enter the trade 2-3 pips from the break of the nose of the pin bar.
Step 4: Stop loss
Place the stop loss 3-5 pips away from the wick. The end of the wick will be a support area. So if this is broken the trend may continue downward. Which is why you place your stop 3-5 pips away from this.
Step 5: Exit Strategy
Your exit strategy is when you hit the first level of support or resistance on your chart. As you can see, the price hit a point then stalled out. Once we see the price action stalling out, we exit the trade immediately.
Conclusion - Price Action Pin Bar Strategy
Price action is another fundamental element to learn when trading the market. There are thousands of strategies you can use with price action. It is important to find something that works for you.
These pin bars are hard to miss. They are relatively accurate when you learn why a pin bar formed. Pin bar candles are shown in any time frame. The rule of thumb is, the higher the time frame, the stronger the signals. But that does not mean that this will not work on a five-minute time frame.
Do not trade every pin bar you see that forms. Gather up key information from the charts. Then form the best conclusion to determine if you should enter the trade based on the rules.
EURUSD 1H INSIDE CANDLE METHOD BREAKOUTINSIDE CANDLE STRATEGY
What is an Inside Candle
1. Previous candle engulfs next candle.
2. 2nd candle high is lower that 1st candle.
3. 2nd candle low is higher than 1st candle.
INSIDE CANDLE METHOD
1. Incoming Trend
2. Inside Candle – Opposite Color
3. Enter Break of Engulfing Larger Candle
Inside Candle method is a great short term consolidation indicator.
If your trade plan contains breakouts and consolidation then this method is for you.
This is a great way to find smaller consolidations quicker which will give you more trades on whatever time frame you want to look.
On a daily chart it may take weeks for a consolidation pattern to form.
Inside candle represents a pause, consolidation or compression in the market after a big move.
Often you will also see reduced volume on the inside candle.
Inside Candle method is a pause or a reversal of the trend . So it is more effective if there is an incoming trend.
Enter a break of the larger engulfing candle in the direction of the break.
Enter with a Stop Order a few pips above or below breakout level.
Which trades you take is a matter of preference.
Some like reversal trades or trend following trades.
Scalping in doesn't matter what direction you may go.
Trend following you will want to see this in context of a larger trend.
Take all the trade setups and just shut down the ones that don't preform.
Trade Management: Enter 2 trades
Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR for both trades
First Take Profit is 1 x ATR for 1st trade
2nd trade there is no take profit.
When 1st TP is hit move 2nd trades SL to breakeven.
Let profit run on 2nd trade by following/trailing SL.
If a candle closes back inside the larger engulfing candle close down trade.
Watch for a setup for the next breakout.
How To Follow A Analysis Correctly & Benefit from thisHi Traders, here is the full Educational Video on " How to follow A Analysis Correctly"
This is a Very Important Concept In Forex trading when following " Mine Or Someone Else Analysis " On Tradingview
Conditions To Follow "Global Fx Education Analysis"
1. Wait For Confirmation From the Market ( Daily Close )
2. Have Patience ( wait For the "Retest or Pullback")
3.Always Use Risk Management
4. Never enter! If the market doesn't Respect the area ( Support / Resistance ).
Dont forget to drop me a like , Comment and a follow.
We appreciate the support and it will encourage us to make more free analysis like this for you all :)
Have a great week.
See You in the next Video!
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND... but don't trend trade!!As you have probably heard do not trade against the trend. I'm going to assume you know what this means but if you don't read the bottom paragraph first.
Trading with the trend is obviously much more beneficial to us, and its clear why we shouldn't go against it. But have you tried being a trend trader? Aka a person who tries to identify trends and rides these huge moves out and scales in along the way?
For starters markets range 90% of the time, so only in 10% of market conditions are you going to succeed. Assuming you don't miss the big move because of all the previous losers and break evens you had in ranging conditions which filled you full of self doubt.
There are people who successfully trend trade, and I ask myself why bother??? It is such a struggle, you have to go through so many loosing streaks and keep calm and collected until that big move comes and you're in on it. For me that is too much stress and too much of a strain on my brain.
Trade with the trend when there is one of course. Only buy if there is a clear uptrend and sell if there is a downtrend. But in my advice I would steer clear of trying to follow the trend orcatch these big moves; you'll get chopped up hard in between!
I like it simple. See where people just got wiped out by the banks and follow the big boys.
Do you want to join our gang Haha?
You stay classy San Diego.
***** Trading with the trend is only buying in an uptrend, and only selling in a downtrend, if you do not know what a trend is, message me or google "How to identify a trend in trading" *****
USD/ZAR - Anticipation of a Breakout But Which Direction?USD/ZAR is experiencing what I would call a choppy market at the present time. In times of choppy markets my suggestion is always to look at other opportunities in the market. Why? In choppy markets, we see a lot of indecision. Its actually likely that you will LOSE money or try to chase the market to no avail. What we want to trade is a trending market..A trending market is where we can see clear buy and sell opportunities and we see CLEAR continuous higher highs (buy opportunity) or lower lows (sell opportunity)
As a backdrop in terms of fundamentals there is a lot of uncertainty in the markets as it relates to emerging market currencies. The China trade war is playing heavily into this uncertainty. In light of the fundamentals, we know that we keep the fundamentals in mind as we trade the technicals. The technicals are what make up make up the market structure. It gives a picture of the forex pair over the course of time, which includes the fundamentals (news). This is why I always say to keep the fundamentals in mind. However, we should give a lot of credence to the technicals more than the fundamentals. Given this lets look at the technicals and what do we see?
- We see price is sitting on a very strong level of support, and is currently trading within a range On a lower timeframe you will see the choppiness to which I refer..
- We see price is still sitting above the 200 MA and the 200 MA which tells us that for now price is holding ground above the very next key level of support.
- We see price is trading and consolidating on a higher timeframe within a pennant (note trendlines)
- We know that the longer the consolidation within a pennant on a higher timeframe especially, we can expect there to be a massive breakout. In which direction though? Only time will tell.
- As we continue to study this pair, we could possibly have two scenarios:
1. If price breaks out to the upside, given the previous consolidation, I would expect a massive breakout to the upside to higher highs as noted (remember the massive breakout a couple of weeks ago? Perhaps just like that..not definite but perhaps).
2. If price pushes beyond support to the downside, given the previous consolidation, I would expect a breakout to the downside towards the next key support as noted.
For now I say, watch, study and be ready to take advantage of the breakout when it happens, as it breaks out of the pennant or for conservative, you can watch for the break and re-test.
Please refer to my previous studies on price action, key zones, and how to study the markets using price action study.
I now offer one-on-one mentoring sessions where we will together study the markets and you will learn how to trade price action and understand market structure. If interested please inbox me for information. Spaces are limited; For individual sessions, I have space just for a few more students, as I like to take the on-on-one time to spend with each individual. Group sessions are also available, if you would like to get a small group of students (3 to 5), and you can take advantage of lesser group rate. I really enjoy studying the market and sharing with others. As we study I will share certain e-books and educational material that I have as we learn this market together.
Thanks for studying along! Always use proper risk management, use your confluences, and wait for confirmation before entering any trade. Conserving capital is very key.