Why I avoid using trendlineThis is one of some analysis that I was shared to my students on the group.
Based my experienced, I NEVER BELIEVE analysis using trend line ( diagonal line ) will give me high accuracy !!!
And this is the evidence, AUDNZD after price breakout the top diagonal orange line, the trendline trader , I am pretty sure most of them thinking price will continue up and open buy position. But it just trap! False breakout !!!
Me and my students together we opened SELL position, and let profit running until touch last yellow horizontal line
Candlestick Analysis
Another example of a doji (support and resistance)So the price crashed into the uptrend line on my chart and a doji formed at the end of an uptrend. When a doji forms like that during an uptrend it can signal a reversal. Keep your eye on candles like that. Also notice that if you would have sold at the doji and watched it drop it bounced right off the 50 MA. That tells you a lot. Understanding support and resistance is a huge part of being a successful trader
AUDUSD - How i traded it into the FED Rate and managed my risk.Hello All
I thought i would post a video of how i completed my analysis and entered 6 trades in total for AUDUSD.
All with different lot sizes dependant on approach and also how I managed my risk going into the FED news, and how with 6 trades triggering at different times (risking 1% of my capital for each trade) - I only had 3% at risk at anyone time which I have now reduced to just 1.5%.
Thanks for your time in watching my video, i hope you find it interesting.
Duncanforex.com is coming in the next 10 days.
If you want to, you can go to the website now and register your interest and also be eligible to obtain discount vouchers for the training course once the site is live.
Thanks
Duncan
How to use Fibonacci in #CryptocurrenciesAs you can see in the image, Bitcoin and Fib retracements are a very powerful combination. I personally only use 61.80% & 78.60% because this particular market is very volatile and prices tend to go down or up very fast. Always wait for 4H or Daily Closure and a good candlestick pattern like doji, tweezers tops, hammer. Remember that the most powerful Fibonacci plays perfectly when you are with the trend. As you can see in my related ideas, i use Fibonacci for confirmation and for correlation with my key levels.
Feel free to leave a comment below and if you like the content i am posting give this article a like and follow me for more premium knowledge.
Finding key support and resistance levels in currency pairs FX_IDC:EURINR
First of all, the most important thing to remember is the support and resistance levels are not exact numbers. Often times you will see that market broke the support/resistance level but in reality, it was just testing that level. To filter out these false breakouts you should think of support and resistance more of as "zones" instead of actual figures.
So how do you find these zones?
One way of doing it is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart because the line chart plots only closing price. Sometimes candlesticks add extreme lows and highs to the picture which might be misleading because often times they are just "knee-jerk" reactions of the market because someone did something really strange for no reason.
Use a weekly or a daily timeframe to find better swing lows and highs for finding support and resistance and besides that, you get the view of a bigger picture in larger timeframes and you can always use smaller timeframes to look at the smaller picture.
After you plot the support and resistance zones turn your chart back to candlesticks and when price approaches the respective zones you can make use of price action and volumes to enter high probability trades.
With little practice, you will be able to spot potential support and resistance areas easily.
GOLD - Monthly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1GOLD has a correlation to the strength of USD, as a risk-off asset investors seek haven in the event of Dollar weakness (USD falls > GOLD rises). I'm sure there's more to it than that, be sure to check it out online for yourself.
Comments
The Monthly timeframe has a clear to identify trading zone from 1330 - 1180 region. Alone this isn't enough to form a thesis for the direction of GOLD in my opinion due to the level of acceleration into the resistance zone of 1330's. Looking left you can see a clean sell-off followed by a decisive buyers rally. This tells me there's interest in buying GOLD which could see prices near the highs before a fall back down to the bottom of the range.
Looking at the candlestick formation at the top of the zone, we have a nice high test candle which stands out from the rest of the price action looking left. I would like to see more deceleration though before trading GOLD to the downside.
The current month hasn't come to an end yet, so the most recent Monthly candle cannot be considered complete.
Key Note
During a ranging market, the EMA's will trade sideways and cannot be used with the same set of rules as during a trending market. If a range is formed on the Monthly timeframe however, a trend can exist on the lower timeframes. You need to be aware of your time horizons when considering confluences. Price always rules over indicators.
DXY - Weekly - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1Continuing with another episode of Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1, I'd like to break down the DXY.
The DXY being weighted as follows:
EUR - 57.6%
JPY - 13.6 %
GBP - 11.9%
CAD - 9.1%
SEK - 4.2%
CHF - 3.6%
As you may imagine, there's a lot more interest in using the DXY for a correlation / confluence tool when trading the EURUSD. The EURO equates to over half of the overall weight of the index, meaning there's a majority interest in the EUR vs USD.
We can use this to our advantage, alongside the USDOLLAR INDEX, to add positive or negative trade factors when considering positions across USD pairs and commodities.
Comments
Looking at the Weekly timeframe gives us a different picture to that on the Monthly. We a low-test candle printing into the 20/50 EMA wave, this indicates a possible continuation to the near-term levels of 97.40 region. If we did see this push to the upside, it's change the formation on the current Monthly candle (and potentially the overall outlook shared within the Monthly breakdown). Thinking in terms of the longer time horizon, if we see a break of 97.80 I think it's possible to reach the realms of 100.
Key Note
The Weekly and Monthly are conflicting, which can often be a sign of the overall bias changing from beneath the surface. The smaller timeframes turn quicker, and when they align, this can change the direction gradually on the higher timeframes.
Wow! What a dogi!! Incoming ... Big Candles!I first published this chart set up via screen shots posted to twitter. Feb 23rd, 2019 See @golftothecore on twitter. This setup was posted just after the last giant narrow dogi with long wicks above and below (red dogi). I added the "slam down zone" on March 8th. Again, check the twitter. This chart set up was a word to the FOMO crowd ... Exercise due diligence and wait for the market to come to you. Make your own f**king coffee, skip Starbucks, and put lottery money in. Stop buying scratch offs and DCA BTC at the bottoms of long red candles ... BTC fell right into my first purple zone. Incoming, Incoming! Giant candle!
This is the first time I am publishing to Tradingview.
Cheers,
Jeffrey Jay Moore
CRUUF "BULLISH" GOLDEN CROSSCRUUF is now displaying one of my favorite bullish signals - GOLDEN CROSS
Also, very bullish is its current buy opinion by one of Wall Street’s leading Technical indicators barchart.com, which just issued CRUUF an 80% "Buy" short term ! > Hence Time Sensitive?
British pound analysis Good evening guys,
Ive just released 2 ideas POUND-related and now i'll explain why im bearish on gbp so far, this is a GBP FUTURE chart for the current month.
First of all, on the left chart im not using traditional candlestincks, im using the Point N' Figure chart, its a great chart for those who wanna avoid the "noise" of the market, very good on stocks as well.
We can see on these chart gbp is breaking a structure support so far and the upwave volumes are too low showing there is not too much demand for gbp.
On the middle dailychart we can see the ascending trendline and gbp is just testing it now, a breakdown will confirm bearish behaviour for gbp.
On the left chart we can see that gbp is lacking demand so far with low volume up-candles.
This is just a reflection on what we can see on the other trading ideas, gbp is bearish now.
Now the most important thing is, gbp is BEARISH NOW, what about tomorrow? tomorrow we can have some news about brexit or anything else on eurozone that can shake the market, cant we? =)
Thats why stop losses and proper money management on trades are a MUST.
When and if i have some good audience i'll create some educational posts explaining about my trading style and philosophy.
Enjoy? leave a like =]
This is just an educational post and not a trading signal.
Inside Bar Forex Trading StrategyInside Bar Forex Trading Strategy-Learn How to Trade Inside Bar
The inside bar forex trading strategy can be classified as a simple price action trading strategy that even new traders, as well as veteran forex traders, can use.
WHAT IS AN INSIDE BAR?
If you are wondering what an inside bar is, then here’s an explanation.
-the inside bar is a 2 candlestick formation
-the first candlestick that forms may be called the “mother candlestick”
-the second candlestick that forms after the “mother candlestick” is engulfed completely within the shadows of the mother candlestick. That second candlestick is called the “inside bar.
Here’s an example of how inside bar candlestick formation looks like:
Notice on the chart above:
-the inside bar is completely engulfed within the shadows of the highs and lows of the preceding bar (or candlestick).
-it is a two candlestick formation
-the preceding candlestick can be either a bullish or bearish bar (candlestick).
-the inside bar itself can be a bullish or bearish candlestick.
WHY INSIDE BARS FORM?
Inside bars, when they form to show a time period of market consolidation. This market consolidation can be due to:
-a time of indecision as traders are figuring out if they are going to buy or sell or not.
-a period of low trading activity (low trading volume).
-it can also be a time where the bulls and bears of market forces are also almost of equal strength and each really doesn’t know what direction to take on their trades.
Where Do Inside Bars Form?
Well, inside bars can form anywhere. But the inside bars that are of significance that many traders take notice of must form on these level(areas) listed below:
-support
-resistance
-pivots
-fibonacci levels
-trend line touch areas
It's best to only pay attention to inside bars that form in the price levels listed above.
INSIDE BAR FOREX TRADING STRATEGY RULES:
Selling Rules:
- the market must be in a downtrend.
- when you see an inside bar form, then place a sell stop order anywhere from 2-3 pips below the low of the inside bar. You do that soon as that that inside bar closes.
- For Stop loss, place it anywhere from 5-10 pips above the high of the inside bar.
Buying Rules:
The buying rules for the inside bar trading strategy are just the exact opposite of the selling rules. Here they are:
- the market must be in an uptrend.
- when you see an inside bar form, then place a buy stop order anywhere from 2-3 pips above the high of the inside bar. You do that soon as that that inside bar closes.
- For Stop loss, place it anywhere from 5-10 pips below the low of the inside bar.
Normally INSIDE BAR will give us two trade
1. the first trade is to trade at the breaking out
2. the 2nd trade is to trade after the breakout + pullback
the first trade normally can quickly take you to 1:1 risk/reward
the 2nd trade can give you a higher R/R
EXAMPLE:
What is a Engulfing Pattern?Trading with the trend is one of the most advantageous things a trader learns to do. Using an engulfing candle day trading strategy is one way to get into trending moves just as momentum is picking up.
The engulfing candle trading strategy works best when used in conjunction with a trend. The first step in applying the strategy is to determine the dominant trend direction, and thus the direction we will trade in.
An uptrend is defined as higher swing highs and higher swing lows in price. Prices move in waves, advancing, pulling back and then advancing again. In an uptrend the advancing waves are larger than the pullbacks, creating overall progress higher. During an uptrend, only take long positions (buy).
A downtrend is defined as lower swing lows and lower swing highs in price. During a downtrend the declining price waves are larger than the pullbacks higher, creating overall progress lower. During a downtrend, only take short positions.
- A high probability price action approach for trading bullish and bearish Engulfing patterns is to look for the pattern to appear at important support and resistance levels.
- The best place for a stop loss order in an Engulfing trade is beyond the Engulfing pattern extreme. This would mean that if the Engulfing setup is bullish, the Stop Loss order should be placed under the lower candlewick of the engulfing candle. If the Engulfing setup is bearish, then the Stop Loss order should be located above the upper candlewick of the engulfing candle.
Wait for a Pullback:
Once the trend is established, wait for a pullback. If there is no trend, or it is unclear, don't utilize this strategy.
Waiting for a pullback means your getting advantageous pricing for the next wave of the trend, when and if it unfolds.
What is the first target?
Estudo dos candles na GOLL4Primeiro vou dizer que essa é uma análise pós fato. Isso significa que quando fazemos uma análise após o movimento acontecer no mercado ficamos com aquela sensação de “nossa como era óbvio, como eu não notei antes”.
No entanto, muitas vezes por nossas próprias expectativas de como o mercado vai andar no futuro acabamos não dando a relevância adequada aos sinais que muitas vezes estão se esfregando na nossa cara. E esse é um dos casos. Acabei nem reparando os sinais que se tivesse seguido teria dado um retorno muito bom.
Marquei eles, nos pontos A, B e C e vou explicar um a um. O ponto D é uma previsão.
PONTO A: No ponto A temos um martelo que se formou acima da linha de resistência marcada. O candle era um martelo com o corpo vermelho, o que poderia abrir margem para ser interpretado como um “enforcado” mas como ele estava acima da resistência, e não no topo dela, a hipótese de um enforcado poderia ter sido eliminada.
PONTO B: No ponto B tínhamos dois cales verdes com corpos pequenos que se formaram também acima da resistência. No fechamento daquele dia valeria a aposta de comprar, pois com mais um candle verde eles estariam fazendo a formação “três soldados brancos” sinal de reversão altista. Isso se confirmou bem além do que alguém iria esperar já que no dia seguinte houve valorização de quase 10% no papel.
PONTO C: No ponto C temos dois candles de reversão baixista seguidos no topo de uma alta. O primeiro é um doji de pernas compridas vermelho, o que mostra muita indecisão e em seguida um enforcado (é um enforcado positivo – verde – menos significativo, mas com o candle anterior era um sinal de aviso).
PONTO D: Eu procuraria por candles altistas nessa região. Pois da mesma forma que em B pode significar um bom movimento. A Goll4 também está no limite inferior do canal de tendência e o fato de ele não alcançar a zona amarela e fechar abaixo do canal é um poderoso sinal de reversão de tendência.
Estudo dos candles no IRBR3Primeiro vou dizer que essa é uma análise pós fato. Isso significa que quando fazemos uma análise após o movimento acontecer no mercado ficamos com aquela sensação de “nossa como era óbvio, como eu não notei antes”.
No entanto, muitas vezes por nossas próprias expectativas de como o mercado vai andar no futuro acabamos não dando a relevância adequada aos sinais que muitas vezes estão se esfregando na nossa cara. E esse é um dos casos. Acabei nem reparando os sinais que se tivesse seguido teria dado um retorno muito bom.
Marquei eles, nos pontos A, B e C e vou explicar um a um. O ponto D é uma previsão.
PONTO A: O Candle central circulado que aparece exatamente em cima de uma zona de suporte (marcada por uma linha preta) é um exemplo clássico de martelo. O candle antecipa todo forte movimento que vem a seguir e foi um ótimo sinal de compra. Na prática, um martelo verde (no qual o dia fecha no positivo) tem mais relevância que um martelo vermelho, mas mesmo assim valeria uma aposta. Lembrando que um martelo é um dos Candles mais importantes de reversão altista.
PONTO B: São 3 Candles em uma sequência muito interessante, e que aparecem no topo de todo o movimento.
O primeiro candle verde com o segundo candle formam em conjunto um Harami baixista. O segundo candle sozinho é uma estrela cadente, (shooting star), também um sinal baixista. Por fim o terceiro candle é um enforcado. Outro sinal de reversão baixista muito significativo. O corpo dela deveria ser um pouco menor para ser um exemplo de livro, mas paciência.
Então temos 3 sinais significativos de reversão baixista no topo do movimento... é quase como pegar um megafone e gritar “CUIDADO MADEIRA!!!”
PONTO C – O candle central circulado é outro martelo clássico dos livros, bem em cima do suporte. E o que acontece no dia seguinte? O IRBR3 fecha com quase 6% de ganho em 1 dia.
PONTO D – No ponto ou zona D é o local onde eu iria procurar por outros sinais de reversão baixista. O que me faz pensar isso? Primeiro, é um zona de resistência forte, já que reverteu previamente o movimento. Segundo o IRBR3 saiu de seu canal de tendência no qual estava há mais de um ano. Terceiro, o papel está subindo desde seu IPO e esse pode ser o local no qual vamos ver um topo duplo e uma reversão pelo menos temporária do movimento de alta. Está na hora da IRBR3 tomar um pouco de fôlego antes de voltar a subir.
FB: Buybacks Buoy Stock but Privacy Issues Remain a ProblemFacebook, having been pressured by the European authorities for numerous privacy violations and illegal use of its customers’ personal information, is trying to mitigate the risk of criminal charges as well as monopoly charges. Mark Zuckerberg has announced that FB is concerned with the privacy of its customers. He claims, without any details or explanations, that the platform will be more focused on privacy. He is also making some features specific to certain modes of communication.
All of this will impact FB’s stock price. Currently FB has some buybacks in play this year. The intermediate term bottom formation is not completed, and volume is very low. The Institutional Holdings Percentage has declined and even with the recent gap up, the stock has plenty of work to do to create strong momentum energy to move it up further. The changes FB is making may or may not make its customer base happy. That remains to be seen. It also is likely to impact revenues growth.
Small Cap Stock to Watch: NSTG with Dark Pools, Pro TradersNSTG had a speculative momentum run out of a short term bottom. This small-cap stock has finally broken out of its long term trading range to a new high. Now it needs to shift sideways to avert a falling stock price. There is some mild accumulation in the consolidation patterns that are representative of one or two Dark Pool giants and some pro traders who both stabilize and control price to a neat and tidy-looking consolidation.
NSTG is not a buy at the moment as the run is overextended at this point, but it is worth considering for a possible watchlist candidate since it is in Nano technology, which is finally forging ahead again with more products moving to the market acceptance phase.
KO Earnings: Dark Pool Rotation vs. BuybacksCoca Cola has been in a major buyback mode for its stock in an attempt to move the price up. The buybacks have faced heavier than normal Dark Pool rotation (large lot selling) against the automated buyback orders. Recently the buybacks have increased, creating some interesting anomalies in the large lot indicators as well as in price patterns. Retail traders, who trade this stock heavily, are often fooled by buyback candlestick patterns. Institutional holdings has declined, which is unusual during a buyback mode.
WDOH - Pinbar contrária na MédiaO Setup que temos falado ultimamente: A Pinbar!
Desenvolvendo ótimos resultados.
Essa é uma Pinbar De QUEDA (apontando para baixo)
Sua boa Estatística (de operação na sua falha) se dá pela condição de um MOVIMENTO DE ALTA, e a COR DA BARRA FAVORÁVEL À TEND. o que nos permitiu extrapolar o alvo para 1.61% do RISCO.
Teria provocado um GAIN para a sua operação.