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Developing Success With PineScript : Building Trigger MechanismsIn my ongoing quest to build better tools for traders, I continue to develop new quantitative trigger logic to improve the working versions I have already created. Trigger logic is complicated for most people because they fail to take the time to "focus on failure." Everyone builds trading systems focused on where the triggers work perfectly (trust me - I've seen/built a few hundred of them). But the most important thing to focus on is where it fails to generate a decent trigger and how you are going to filter it out or protect capital when that failed trigger hits. In this example, I highlight my new "Gun-Slinger" triggers and how my continued development is creating more advanced trading tools for skilled traders. I hope you enjoy it. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
Silver (XAGUSD) how to construct a trade:Medium bullish take: OANDA:XAGUSD is trading around the $30 price level for the first time in years. Is there a trade here? Could we see $40 by EOY? Let’s draw some charts: We're trading in a Bullflag at the $30 level Triple top, we're not quite ready to hold above the level Find nearby price targets Establish long term support lines Use momentum indicators and price action to draw a reasonable path which engages the price structures you've established. So according to our charts, we should expect a bounce above $27 Be mindful, there are exogenous events that push the price around. Shifts in the macro landscape will impact the path price takes. For details, I've included a fun GIF, animating the construction of this chart. Check out my twitter for more! NOTE: Original idea posted 7/23
TVC:SILVEREducation
by dawsonMoonshot
Gold vs. Dollar: Debunking the Correlation MythIn financial markets, it's common to look for correlations between different assets to understand their behavior and make informed trading decisions. One widely discussed relationship is between Gold (XAU/USD) and the US Dollar Index (DXY). While it's often assumed that these two assets are inversely correlated, a deeper analysis reveals that this is not always the case. This article explores the nuances of the XAU/USD and DXY relationship, demonstrating that they are not consistently correlated. Understanding XAU/USD and DXY XAU/USD represents the price of Gold in US dollars. Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, meaning its price tends to rise in times of economic uncertainty. DXY, or the US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc. The index provides a broad measure of the US dollar's strength. The Assumption of Inverse Correlation The assumption of an inverse correlation between XAU/USD and DXY is based on the idea that when the dollar strengthens, it becomes more expensive to buy Gold, leading to a decrease in Gold prices. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper, and its price tends to rise. However, this relationship is not as straightforward as it seems. Historical Data Analysis To understand the true nature of the relationship between XAU/USD and DXY, let's examine historical data. 1. 2008 Financial Crisis: During the 2008 financial crisis, both gold and the US dollar saw periods of appreciation. Investors flocked to the safety of both assets amid widespread market turmoil. This simultaneous rise contradicts the notion of a straightforward inverse correlation. 2. 2014-2016 Period: From mid-2014 to the end of 2016, the DXY experienced significant strength, rising from around 80 to over 100. During this period, gold prices also showed resilience, hovering around $1,200 to $1,300 per ounce. The expected inverse correlation was not evident during these years. 3. COVID-19 Pandemic: In early 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sharp rise in both gold and the US dollar. The DXY spiked as investors sought the liquidity and safety of the US dollar, while gold surged as a hedge against unprecedented economic uncertainty and aggressive monetary policy actions. 4. Gold new ATH's in 2024: Even recently, if we examine the charts, we see that since the beginning of the year, XAU/USD has risen by 4000 pips, while the DXY is 4% above its price at the start of the year. Factors Influencing the Relationship: Several factors can disrupt the expected inverse correlation between XAU/USD and DXY: - Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment plays a crucial role. During periods of extreme uncertainty, both gold and the US dollar can be sought after for their safe-haven properties. - Monetary Policy: Central bank actions, particularly those of the Federal Reserve, can impact both the US dollar and gold. For instance, lower interest rates may weaken the dollar but boost gold prices as investors seek better returns elsewhere. - Geopolitical Events: Political instability, trade tensions, and other geopolitical factors can drive simultaneous demand for both assets, decoupling their traditional relationship. - Inflation Expectations: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. If inflation expectations rise, gold prices might increase regardless of the dollar's strength or weakness. Conclusion: While there are periods when XAU/USD and DXY exhibit an inverse correlation, this relationship is far from consistent. Various factors, including market sentiment, monetary policy, geopolitical events, and inflation expectations, can influence their behavior. Traders and investors should not rely solely on the assumed inverse correlation but rather consider the broader context and multiple factors at play. Understanding that XAU/USD and DXY are not always correlated can lead to more nuanced trading strategies and better risk management. In the complex world of financial markets, recognizing the limitations of assumed relationships is crucial for making informed decisions. Best Regards! Mihai Iacob
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1). Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors: Relative volatility and the silver beta Fabrication demand and technological change Gold’s use as a monetary asset Supply-side dynamics Relative volatility and beta To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise. Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004. For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal. Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances. Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio. In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records. The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020. Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals. Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed Gold and global monetary policy Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis. Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market. The supply side of the equation Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level. Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003 Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver. Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply. Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market. Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
4
How To Scalp or Day Trade XAUUSD. Scalping Strategy 15m. In this video, we explore a high-probability scalping and/or day trading strategy for XAUUSD (Gold), building upon concepts introduced in our previous videos about trading plan development and risk management. This installment focuses on refining entry points for high-probability trades. Initially, we analyze a basic trend continuation strategy on the 4-hour time frame. Subsequently, we zoom in on the 15-minute time frame to pinpoint specific price action that offers precise entry opportunities. Our approach involves identifying sideways price action, forming a range, and patiently waiting for signs of volatility. Once liquidity is hit above or below the range, the trend often establishes itself on the lower time frame, allowing us to execute trades on the 15-minute chart. As always, please note that this video serves an educational purpose and should not be considered financial advice.” 🚀📊
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by tradingwithanthony
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years? You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame. But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets? What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years? Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine? And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks? Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics. Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
Editors' picks
FX:SPX500Education
by BradMatheny
29
Trade Smart with TradingView’s Volume FootprintTradingView has just introduced an innovative feature on their charts known as the Volume Footprint . This tool represents a significant advancement in chart analysis, offering a detailed view of trading activity and volume at specific price levels. Are you interested in gaining an early advantage by becoming one of the initial traders to master this new tool ? • I'm thrilled to share with you a fantastic new feature from TradingView : the Volume Footprint. This powerful charting tool gives us a visual representation of trading volume distribution across various price levels for each candle within a specified timeframe. It's a game-changer, offering deeper insights to help us pinpoint areas of high liquidity and significant trading activity. • The Volume Footprint is available to those with Premium and higher-tier plans. It leverages data from multiple lower timeframes of the current symbol for historical calculations. Initially, it requests 1-second data, and once this is exhausted, it moves to the next higher timeframe. Consequently, as we delve further into history, the requested timeframe increases, which may reduce the accuracy of volume distribution. • This tool determines whether trades are buy volumes or sell volumes by analyzing the direction of price movement. If the current bar closes higher than it opens, it's a buy volume. Conversely, if it closes lower, it's a sell volume. If the close equals the open, the volume direction follows that of the previous bar. • One of the standout features of the Volume Footprint is its ability to identify market balance and imbalance. A balanced market indicates an equilibrium between supply and demand, resulting in stable prices. An imbalanced market, however, shows a significant disparity between supply and demand, leading to pronounced price movements. • The Volume Footprint helps us understand market behavior, such as optimal entry points, potential price movements, and areas where supply and demand are balanced or imbalanced. It's an excellent tool for gauging market sentiment and spotting trading opportunities. • Additionally, the Volume Footprint allows us to identify failed auctions. These occur when there's an unsuccessful attempt to set a new price, resulting in a return to previous price levels. Recognizing failed auctions can help us anticipate market reversals, validate support and resistance levels, and refine our trading strategies to capitalize on shifting market conditions. • Another intriguing feature is Delta divergence, which refers to a discrepancy between price movement and the total delta value. Traders often use delta divergence in footprint charts to signal potential reversals or changes in market direction. • Finally, the Volume Footprint lets us spot excess trades at extreme price levels. According to auction market theory, prices rise until demand dries up and fall until supply is exhausted. This is known as a completed auction. Sometimes, though, an incomplete auction occurs, where the volume of trades at the maximum or minimum price level differs slightly. This may indicate that the trend isn't complete, suggesting that prices might continue moving in the current direction until the auction concludes. • In conclusion, the Volume Footprint is an invaluable tool that provides deep insights into market dynamics and trading opportunities. It's a fantastic addition to any trader’s toolkit, and I can't wait to explore and utilize this feature in my trading journey. Happy trading! Prepared by : Arman Shaban The Source : www.tradingview.com
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
How To Start Investing In Gold (7 Ways)Gold's allure as a precious metal transcends time. It has served as a symbol of wealth, a reliable store of value, and a hedge against inflation for centuries. For investors seeking to diversify their portfolio and protect their purchasing power, gold can be a strategic asset. This guide explores seven methods for investing in gold: 1. Physical Gold (Coins and Bullion): Owning physical gold, like coins or bars, offers a sense of tangible ownership and security. However, there are drawbacks. Secure storage is crucial, and selling physical gold can be inconvenient, potentially incurring fees or melter costs. 2. Gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): These investment vehicles track the price of gold, allowing you to trade them on a stock exchange like a stock. ETFs offer advantages like affordability (you can buy smaller amounts than a whole gold bar) and liquidity (easy buying and selling). However, you don't own physical gold with ETFs. 3. Gold Mutual Funds: Invest in professionally managed funds that hold a basket of assets, including gold mining companies' stocks. This offers diversification and potentially reduces risk compared to directly owning gold. The downside is that fees might be higher compared to ETFs, and the fund's price performance depends on the underlying holdings, not just gold itself. 4. Gold Futures and Options: These are contracts for buying or selling gold at a predetermined price on a future date. This approach offers leverage and the potential for significant profits, but it's also high-risk. Futures and options are complex financial instruments and require a deep understanding of the derivatives market. Consult with a financial advisor before venturing into this territory. 5. Gold Mining Stocks: Investing in companies that mine, refine, and trade gold can magnify your returns if gold prices rise. However, this method is indirectly tied to the price of gold and is also susceptible to the risks associated with the stock market in general, including company-specific risks. 6. Gold Certificates: These paper certificates represent ownership of a specific amount of physical gold stored in a secure vault by a bank or other institution. They offer a way to own gold without physical possession but might have storage fees and redemption restrictions. 7. Digital Gold: A relatively new option, digital gold allows you to invest in fractional ownership of physical gold stored securely. This method offers affordability and easy online buying and selling, but regulations and risks associated with the specific digital gold platform need to be considered. Top 10 Tips for Investing in Gold: 1. Do your research: Understand the gold market, different investment options, and their associated risks and rewards before investing. 2. Set investment goals: Align your gold investment strategy with your overall financial goals and risk tolerance. 3. Diversify: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Gold should be a part of a diversified portfolio. 4. Start small: Begin with a smaller investment to test the waters and gain experience. 5. Consider fees: Compare fees associated with different investment options like storage costs for physical gold or expense ratios for ETFs and mutual funds. 6. Think long-term: Gold is generally considered a long-term investment. Don't expect quick gains. 7. Store securely: If you buy physical gold, ensure secure storage in a safe deposit box or a reputable vault. 8. Beware of scams: Be cautious of get-rich-quick schemes or companies offering unrealistic returns on gold investments. 9. Stay informed: Keep yourself updated on economic factors and events that can influence gold prices. 10. Seek professional advice: Consult with a financial advisor to create a personalized investment strategy that includes gold, if appropriate for your financial goals. By understanding the different ways to invest in gold and following these valuable tips, you can make informed decisions and potentially benefit from incorporating gold into your investment portfolio. Remember, gold is a valuable asset class, but it's not without risks. Do your research, invest within your risk tolerance, and enjoy the journey of exploring the world of gold investing.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by bryandowningqln
Technical Analysis DOES NOT WORK in GOLD Trading Does technical analysis really work in Gold trading? In this article, we will discuss whether the traditional, classic methods of technical analysis: support and resistance, breakouts, patterns can be reliable in this specific market. We will explore the dynamics of Gold prices so far this year and discuss the most efficient way to trade Gold. So if you are a gold trader or simple interested in the market analysis, you should not miss this eye-opening discussion! First, let's discuss how Gold market behaves from the beginning of the year from technical analysis perspective. Gold started this year in a strong bullish trend, the market opened after setting a new higher high on a daily the second of January. After a formation of a higher high, the market became overbought and a correctional movement initiated. The price formed a bullish flag pattern and reached the level of the last higher low - a very important support. After the test of structure, the price bounced and violated a resistance line of a flag with a strong bullish candle. From the technical perspective, it was a very strong trend-following signal and a bullish continuation was anticipated. However, it turned out that it was a false signal, and instead of going higher, the market dropped, setting a new lower low. Why this false signal is so important is that the breakouts, key levels and price action analysis are the most reliable on a daily time frame. Such a strong combination: bullish trend, bullish pattern, key support; has a very high accuracy on a daily. That was the first time this year, when technical analysis on a daily was completely screwed . It felt like the market was turning bearish. The price violated a level of the higher low, setting a new lower low. For Smart Money traders, it is a very important event that is called a Change of Character. It strongly confirms a bearish reversal on the market. One more bearish confirmation that I spotted was a completed head and shoulders pattern formation with a confirmed violation of its neckline. That signal also confirms a bearish reversal. And again, these 2 bearish confirmations were the false signals. The price went back above the neckline and a bullish movement initiated. This time, a classic price action pattern did not work , and smart money concepts gave a false signal. Then I spotted a very bullish signal - the price violated a major falling trend line and closed above that. It clearly indicated that the market was returning to a global bullish trend. And again, that signal was completely false. And the price dropped. Trend line breakout in the direction of the trend - a classic trend-following confirmation did not work. Then we saw 2 strong bearish signals: a bearish breakout of a rising trend line and a key horizontal support with a high momentum bearish candle. It felt like now it confirms that the market is bearish and it should drop lower to the closest key support. And again, technicals failed miserably and after a retest of a broken horizontal structure and a trend line, the price just went higher completely neglecting them From the beginning of the year, technical analysis: key levels, patterns, smart money, breakouts do not work on a daily. All the signals that were spotted so far failed. If you just started trading, you may easily come to the conclusion that technical analysis does not make any sense on Gold. And you will be completely right, in that period it does not work at all. I am trading Gold and Forex for more than 9 years, and year after year I noticed that there always are the periods when some techniques, some strategies do not work. Sometimes these periods are very short, but some time they can be quite long. The only proven way to overcome such periods is consistency and proper risk management . Risking a tiny portion of your trading account per trade, you will be able to survive the stubborn market. The market always returns to normal conditions and starts respecting the technicals again. However, no one knows when. There is a famous quote by John Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent"" And only proper risk management will keep you solvent longer than the market stays irrational. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone, In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry. I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart. Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video. I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong. Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win. As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes. - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
GOLD MACD StrategyRules for engagement: - Price must be below the 200SMA - MACD must cross above the 0 line (higher the better) - Price must then cross over short term SMAs (5&8) - Stops at previous high - Take Profits at the target low Here we saw price break down to create a new lower low and sweeping previous support. Price on the daily has broken below the 21 moving average and price is close to crossing the 200 moving average on the 4hr chart. Using the FIB we can set an expected target entry zone between the 382 and 618 zones which also aligns with previous support which could turn to resistance. We see price stall here and we look for entries short. two entries identified using the above rules with a 130SL and a 400+TP.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Youza
How Does Recession Affect Financial Markets?How Does Recession Affect Financial Markets? Recessions, marked by widespread economic decline, profoundly impact financial markets. Understanding how different markets – stock, forex, commodity, and bond – respond to these downturns is crucial for traders and investors. This article delves into the varied effects of recessions, highlighting strategies for navigating these challenging times and identifying potential opportunities for resilience and growth in the face of economic adversity. Understanding Recessions A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, typically visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale retail sales. Economic experts often cite two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction as a technical indicator of a recession. However, it's more than just numbers; it reflects a noticeable slump in economic activities and consumer confidence. Historically, recessions have been triggered by various factors, such as sudden economic shocks, financial crises, or bursting asset bubbles. For instance, the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 stemmed from the collapse of the housing market bubble in the United States, leading to a worldwide economic downturn. Recession impacts nearly every corner of the economy, leading to increased unemployment, reduced consumer spending, and overall economic stagnation. Effects of Recession on Different Financial Markets A recession's impact on financial markets is multifaceted, influencing everything from stocks and bonds to forex and commodities. However, each market reacts differently. To see how these various asset classes have reacted in past recessions, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to access real-time market charts. General Impact on Markets During a recession, the financial landscape typically undergoes significant changes. Investors, wary of uncertainty, often reassess their risk tolerance, leading to shifts in asset allocation. Market volatility usually spikes as news and economic indicators sway investor sentiment. This period is often marked by cautious trading and a search for safer investment havens. Impact on Stock Markets Stock market performance in a recession can be quite varied. Generally, stock markets are among the first to react to signs of a recession. Prices may fall as investors anticipate lower earnings and weaker economic growth. This decline is not uniform across all sectors, however. Some industries, like technology or luxury goods, might experience steeper drops due to reduced consumer spending. Conversely, sectors like utilities or consumer staples often include stocks that do well during a recession, as they provide essential services that remain in demand. Impact on Forex Markets In forex, recessions often lead to significant currency fluctuations. Investors might flock to so-called safe currencies like the US dollar or Swiss franc, while currencies from countries heavily affected by the recession weaken. Central bank policies, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, play a crucial role in currency valuation during these times. Impact on Commodities Commodities can react differently in a recession. While demand for industrial commodities like oil or steel may decline due to reduced industrial activity, precious metals like gold often see increased interest as so-called safe-haven assets. Impact on Bonds Bond markets usually experience a surge in demand during recessions, particularly government bonds, seen as low-risk investments. As investors seek stability, bond prices typically rise, and yields fall, reflecting the increased demand and decreased risk appetite. Types of Stocks That Perform Well During a Recession During economic downturns, certain stock categories have historically outperformed others. The stocks that go up in a recession generally belong to sectors that provide essential services or goods that remain in demand regardless of the economic climate. Consumer Staples: Companies in this sector, offering essential products like food, beverages, and household items, may appreciate during a recession. As these are necessities, demand usually remains stable even when discretionary spending declines. Healthcare: Healthcare stocks often hold steady or grow during recessions. The demand for medical services and products is less sensitive to economic fluctuations, making this sector a potential safe haven for investors. Utilities: Utility companies typically offer stable dividends and consistent demand. Regardless of economic conditions, consumers need water, gas, and electricity, providing these stocks with a buffer against recessionary pressures. Discount Retailers: Retailers that offer essential goods at lower prices can see an uptick in business as consumers become more budget-conscious during tough economic times. Types of Stocks to Hold in a Recession While there are some stocks that perform well in a recession due to sustained demand for their products, there are other types of stocks that are valued for their financial resilience and potential to provide long-term stability. Blue-Chip Stocks: These are shares of large, well-established companies known for their financial stability and strong track records. During recessions, their history of enduring tough economic times and providing dividends makes them attractive. Value Stocks: Stocks that are undervalued compared to their intrinsic worth can be good picks. They often have strong fundamentals and are priced below their perceived true value, with the potential to rebound strongly as the economy recovers. Non-Cyclical Stocks: These stocks are in industries whose services or products are always needed, like waste management or funeral services. Their demand doesn’t fluctuate significantly with the economy, which may offer stability. The Role of Government and Central Banks During Recessions During recessions, governments and central banks play a crucial role in stabilising financial markets. Government interventions often include fiscal policies like increased spending and tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Central banks may reduce interest rates or implement quantitative easing to increase liquidity in the financial system. These actions can bolster investor confidence, stabilise markets, and encourage lending and spending. However, their effectiveness can vary based on the recession's severity and the timeliness of the response. The Bottom Line Navigating recessions requires understanding their multifaceted impact on financial markets. From stocks and bonds to forex and commodities, each sector reacts uniquely, offering both challenges and opportunities. To take advantage of the various opportunities a recession presents, opening an FXOpen account can be a strategic step. We provide access to a broad range of markets and trading tools designed to help traders adapt to a shifting economic landscape. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Editors' picks
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FXOpen
6
what currencies to buy in times of geopolitical tensions. In times of geopolitical turmoil or war, investors often seek refuge in currencies perceived as safe havens. several currencies are considered safe harbors due to their stability, liquidity, and low risk of depreciation. Some of the notable safe-haven currencies include: 1-US Dollar (USD): The US dollar is often regarded as the ultimate safe-haven currency due to the size and stability of the US economy, as well as the liquidity of USD-denominated assets. During times of uncertainty, investors tend to flock to the USD, driving up its value. 2-Swiss Franc (CHF): Switzerland's reputation for political neutrality and its strong banking system make the Swiss Franc a popular safe-haven currency. Investors view the CHF as a stable and reliable asset during periods of geopolitical tension. 3-Japanese Yen (JPY): The Japanese Yen is considered a safe-haven currency due to Japan's status as a net creditor nation and its large current account surplus. During times of crisis, investors often repatriate funds into the JPY, driving up its value. 4-Euro (EUR): Despite occasional uncertainties surrounding the Eurozone, the Euro is still considered a safe-haven currency by many investors. The Euro's status as the second most traded currency in the world and the stability of major Eurozone economies contribute to its safe-haven appeal. 5-Gold-Backed Currencies: Some countries, particularly those with significant gold reserves, may issue currencies backed by gold or pegged to the price of gold. These currencies offer stability and are perceived as safe havens during times of crisis.
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by JoeChampion
12
COPPER, THE MUSICAL.. ERR I MEAN, GUIDE. (Cu, Copper)COPPER, What's the deal with this shiny brown stuff that I hear everyone steals? Should I steal copper or is there a better way? What do I need to know? What is the fast summary to catch me up? First, let's talk about the technicals. Some massive trends, all strong. price targets labeled there are numbers that go pretty high, but it seems a retracement might be needed to get there. Potential to buy under 3. Potential to sell over 4. idk where it heads first. Copper: A Comprehensive Overview Introduction Copper , denoted by the symbol Cu on the periodic table, is a versatile metal with a wide range of applications. It is renowned for its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and malleability. These properties make it a valuable resource in various industries. Uses of Copper Copper is extensively used in the electrical industry due to its superior conductivity. It forms a crucial component in electrical equipment such as wiring and motors. In the construction industry, copper is used for roofing and plumbing, thanks to its durability and resistance to corrosion. Interestingly, copper’s antimicrobial properties are leveraged in healthcare settings to reduce the number of patients who acquire infections in hospitals. How and Where Copper is Found Copper is typically found in nature in association with sulfur. The extraction process involves mining and concentrating low-grade ores containing copper sulfide minerals. This is followed by smelting and electrolytic refining to produce pure copper. Copper deposits are found in various locations worldwide, including South America, South Central Asia, Indochina, and North America. It is found as a primary mineral in basaltic lavas and also as reduced from copper compounds. History of Copper Use Copper has a rich history of use by humans. It was one of the first metals ever extracted and used by humans, first appearing in coins and ornaments around 8000 B.C. The advent of copper tools around 5500 B.C. helped civilization emerge from the Stone Age. Copper in the Periodic Table In the periodic table, copper is a transition metal located in Group 11, along with silver and gold. These metals share similar electron structures, which result in many shared characteristics. Comparable Metals and Alloys Copper is often compared to other “red metals” like brass and bronze. While copper is a pure metal, brass and bronze are copper alloys. Brass is a combination of copper and zinc, while bronze is a combination of copper and tin. Copper is also alloyed with other metals like nickel, aluminum, and beryllium to enhance its properties. Costs and Difficulties of Working with Copper Despite its importance, the extraction and use of copper come with significant challenges. Mining copper can lead to environmental hazards, affecting water access, air quality, and Indigenous cultural sites. Moreover, the cost of copper has been rising due to increasing demand and supply constraints. Future Potential of Copper The future of copper looks promising, especially considering its role in the energy transition. Copper is critical for renewable energy systems, including solar and wind power, and electric vehicles. However, the potential for a copper shortage is drawing concerns about how to sustainably meet future demand. Conclusion Copper is an incredibly versatile and important metal with a rich history and a promising future. As we continue to innovate and move towards a more sustainable future, the role of copper is likely to become even more significant.
CAPITALCOM:COPPEREducation
by nicktussing77
2
Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price. However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy. For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices. Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices. In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics. Prepared by : Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
Why Gold and DXY Rise Together in Times of UncertaintyIn times of market uncertainty, investors often seek refuge in assets considered safe havens, such as gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY). While traditionally these two assets exhibit a negative correlation, meaning when one rises, the other tends to fall, their simultaneous ascent during periods of uncertainty might seem counterintuitive at first glance. However, a deeper understanding reveals the underlying dynamics driving this phenomenon. Firstly, let's explore gold's role as a safe haven asset. Gold has long been revered as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability and geopolitical turmoil. During times of uncertainty, investors flock to gold as a reliable store of wealth, driving up its price. This demand surge can outweigh any negative impact from a stronger US dollar, leading to both gold and DXY rising concurrently. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also garners safe haven status during times of uncertainty. The US dollar is widely considered the world's reserve currency and is backed by the largest and most stable economy globally. Consequently, investors often seek refuge in the US dollar during periods of market turmoil, further boosting its value. Moreover, the correlation between gold and the US dollar is not solely determined by economic factors but also influenced by investor sentiment and market dynamics. During times of heightened uncertainty, investor behavior can drive unusual correlations as market participants prioritize capital preservation over traditional market relationships. Furthermore, it's crucial to consider the broader macroeconomic landscape. Factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and global economic outlook play significant roles in shaping investor sentiment and asset prices. Changes in these factors can lead to shifts in the relationship between gold and the US dollar, especially during times of uncertainty when market participants reassess risk and allocate capital accordingly. In conclusion, while gold and the US dollar may traditionally exhibit a negative correlation, their simultaneous rise during times of uncertainty underscores their status as safe haven assets. Understanding the complex interplay of economic fundamentals, investor sentiment, and market dynamics is essential for comprehending the nuances of asset relationships, particularly during turbulent times in the financial markets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by JoeChampion
3
📍Part #2, Elliott Waves: "Motive Waves - Impulse".👩🏻‍💻 Welcome to the 2nd lecture on Elliott Waves. So, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that price behavior follows a wave structure, with three waves being impulse waves and 2 being corrective waves. It can be said that these 5 waves look like the image above. ➡️For example, let's take an upward impulse, where the impulse refers to all these five waves. We observe the first wave of growth, then the second wave is corrective to the first, meaning the second wave is specifically a correction for the first wave. Next, the third wave is a growth wave, the fourth is corrective for the third, and the fifth wave concludes the impulse. Following the completion of the impulse or the five-wave sequence, a correction occurs in the form of A, B, C. ➡️This entire structure is fractal, meaning that if our upward impulse has three waves, and they are also impulse waves, such as the first, third, and fifth, and as impulse waves, as we already know, consist of five waves, then each impulse within this larger five-wave sequence has the same structure of five waves. Furthermore, in the correction A, B, C, waves A and C also have a five-wave structure, but more on that in the next lessons. ➡️If you ask about the timeframes to work with waves, I would say that the 1-hour timeframe is the threshold below which it is not recommended to consider the structure! Next, I will describe the basic rules and regulations concerning impulses in the form of pictures, which are convenient to save and use as a hint when analyzing charts. ➡️Now let's consider some rules that are mandatory for all impulse movements. Rules An impulse always subdivides into five waves. Strong guidelines 📍Wave A almost always will alternate with wave B. Alternation can be expressed in two ways: 1) In the type of correction: sharp/sideways or vice versa 2) In the presence of extension: in waves 2 and 4 of the impulse, two sideways patterns are possible, but only one of them will have an extreme beyond the peak of the previous wave. 📍Wave 4, as a rule, significantly violates the channel formed by the subwaves of wave 3. 📍As a strong norm, no part of wave 4 should enter the price territory of wave 1 or 2. 📍As a strong norm, the peak of wave 4 should not extend beyond the doubled channel constructed from the peaks of waves 1, 2, and 3, while the midline of the channel will serve as the minimum achievable target. 📍Second waves of impulses tend to go beyond the previous fourth wave. When using this norm, the previous fourth wave serves as the minimum target. 📍Sometimes wave 5 does not move beyond the end of wave 3 (in which case it is called a truncation). 📍Often, waves 1 and 5 of the impulse form impulses, but more often they alternate in the type of motive waves: if wave 1 is an impulse, expect wave 5 in the form of a diagonal, and vice versa. Less commonly, waves 1 and 5 form diagonals, but in this case, alternation will be expressed in the form of a pattern: contracting/expanding. So there are also many other lesser indications, but they are too numerous and less frequent. Therefore, I recommend that we focus on the main ones for the time being. 📣This concludes the lecture on impulse waves. Save the images and practice. Next week I'll start talking about the Leading and Ending diagonals. 🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
Education
by Hellena_Trade
11
Options Blueprint Series Strangles vs. StraddlesIntroduction In the realm of options trading, the choice of strategy significantly impacts the trader's ability to navigate market uncertainties. Among the plethora of strategies, the Strangle holds a unique position, offering flexibility in unclear market conditions without the upfront costs associated with more conventional approaches like the Straddle. This article delves into the intricacies of the Strangle strategy, emphasizing its application in the volatile world of Gold Futures trading. For traders seeking a foundation in the Straddle strategy, refer to our earlier discussion in "Options Blueprint Series: Straddle Your Way Through The Unknown" - In-Depth Look at the Strangle Strategy The Strangle strategy involves purchasing a call option and a put option with the same expiration date but different strike prices. Typically, the call strike price is higher than the current market price, while the put strike price is lower. This approach is designed for situations where a significant price movement is anticipated, but the direction of the movement is uncertain. It's particularly effective in markets prone to sudden swings, making it a valuable strategy for Gold Futures traders who face volatile market conditions. Advantages of the Strangle strategy include its lower upfront cost compared to the Straddle strategy, as options are bought out-of-the-money (OTM). This aspect makes it a more accessible strategy for traders with budget constraints. The potential for unlimited profits, should the market make a strong move in either direction, further adds to its appeal. However, the risks include the total loss of the premium paid if the market does not move significantly and both options expire worthless. Therefore, timing and market analysis are critical when implementing a Strangle in the gold market. Example: Consider a scenario where Gold Futures are trading at $1,800 per ounce. Anticipating volatility, a trader might purchase a call option with a strike price of $1,820 and a put option with a strike price of $1,780. If gold prices swing widely enough in either direction, the strategy could yield substantial profits. Strangle vs. Straddle: Understanding the Key Differences The Strangle and Straddle strategies are both designed to capitalize on market volatility, yet they differ significantly in execution and ideal market conditions. While the Straddle strategy involves buying a call and put option at the same strike price, the Strangle strategy opts for different strike prices. This fundamental difference impacts their cost, risk, and potential return. Cost Implications: The Strangle strategy is generally less expensive than the Straddle due to the use of out-of-the-money options. This lower initial investment makes the Strangle appealing to traders with tighter budget constraints or those looking to manage risk more conservatively. Risk Exposure and Profit Potential: Although both strategies offer unlimited profit potential, the Strangle requires a more significant price move to reach profitability due to its out-of-the-money positions. Consequently, the risk of total premium loss is higher with Strangles if the anticipated volatility does not materialize to a sufficient degree. Market Conditions: Straddles are best suited for markets where significant price movement is expected but without clear directional bias. Strangles, given their lower cost, might be preferred in situations where substantial volatility is anticipated but with a slightly lower conviction level, allowing for larger market moves before profitability. In the context of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, traders might lean towards a Strangle strategy when expecting major market events or economic releases that could induce significant gold price fluctuations. The choice between a Strangle and a Straddle often comes down to the trader's market outlook, risk tolerance, and cost considerations. Application to Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures Implementing a Strangle in the Gold Futures market requires a keen understanding of underlying market conditions and volatility. Given the precious metal's sensitivity to global economic indicators, political instability, and changes in demand, traders can leverage the Strangle strategy to capitalize on expected price swings without committing to a directional bet. When applying a Strangle to Gold Futures, selecting the appropriate strike prices becomes crucial. The goal is to position the OTM options in a way that balances the potential for significant price movements with the cost of premiums paid. This balance is critical in scenarios like central bank announcements or inflation reports, where gold prices can experience sharp movements, offering the potential for Strangle strategies to flourish. Long Straddle Trade-Example Underlying Asset: Gold Futures or Micro Gold Futures (Symbol: GC1! or MGC1!) Strategy Components: Buy Put Option: Strike Price 2275 Buy Call Option: Strike Price 2050 Net Premium Paid: 11.5 points = $1,150 ($115 with Micros) Micro Contracts: Using MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures) reduces the exposure by 10 times Maximum Profit: Unlimited Maximum Loss: Net Premium paid Risk Management Effective risk management is paramount when employing options strategies like the Strangle, especially within the volatile realms of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures trading. Traders should be acutely aware of the expiration dates and the time decay (theta) of options, which can erode the potential profitability of a Strangle strategy as the expiration date approaches without significant price movement in the underlying asset. To mitigate such risks, it's common to set clear criteria for adjusting or exiting the positions. This could involve rolling out the options to a further expiration date or closing the position to limit losses once certain thresholds are met. Additionally, the use of stop-loss orders or protective puts/calls as part of a broader trading plan can provide a safety net against unforeseen market reversals. Such techniques ensure that losses are capped at a predetermined level, allowing traders to preserve capital for future opportunities. Conclusion The Strangle and Straddle strategies each offer unique advantages for traders navigating the Gold Futures market's uncertainties. By understanding the distinct characteristics and application scenarios of each, traders can make informed decisions tailored to their market outlook and risk tolerance. While the Strangle strategy offers a cost-effective means to leverage expected volatility, it also necessitates a disciplined approach to risk management and an acute understanding of market dynamics.   When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
8
How to Find a High Probability Trade in an Uptrend Hey Traders, We'll show you how you can find an easy trade with a high risk-to-reward ratio using some basic concepts. - Step One: Spot an uptrend where you have higher highs and higher lows. - Step two: Spot the last break of structure. - Step three: Use the Fibonacci tool and connect it from the recent lows to the recent highs. - Step Four: Watch prices coming back to the broken structure that lines up with any Fibonacci level. ( Focus on the 50% - 61.8% - 78.6% Levels ) - Step Five: Wait for a clear bullish candle and then enter with stoploss structure - Step Six: Take partial profits at the recent highs and the Fibonacci extensions ( - 0.27 & -0.618 )
Education
by Tradenessfx
3