BASIC MONEY MANAGEMENT - LOT SIZE - REVERSAL - ACCOUNT SIZEHey Everyone,
A repost to remind newbies of some basic money management fundamentals.
We see too many new traders trade with random lot sizes with no understanding on the impact it has on account sizes, which result in not only losses but BLOWN accounts. This post is by no means a risk or money management strategy but more so just basics on the movement of reversals and how the lot sizes impact the value of your account during this reversal.
Trading with the right lot sizes allows a trader to manage their account/money when the trade goes against them. The right size allows a trader to move a range without blowing their account and without seeing their account reverse to the point of no equity. This type of trading gives traders anxiety and in return this anxiety impacts trading psychology . This then has a ripple effect and impacts your trading decisions and analysis.
The example we show on the chart is an entry of SELL that reverses by 380 PIPs. This movement happened in literally 2 candles (1hour candles) , so in two hours the price from entry reversed by 380 pips. This example then shows what this equates to in monetary value dependent on lot sizes.
The example shows that anyone with a £500 account trading this movement with a lot size of 0.20 would have blown their account.
Lot size usage should be based on the size of your account for example;
£500 size account - we will only use 0.01 size lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more than 0.05. This will allow an account to survive volatile movements. Also using stop losses on top of this setup further strengthens the risk management.
£1000 size account - we will use 0.02 lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.10 any given time.
£2000 size account - we will use 0.03 lot sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.30 any given time.
£5000 size account - we will use 0.06 sizes with maximum deployed total no more then 0.50 any given time.
Basically 0.10 for every £1000, as the total deployed usage allows us enough flexibility of movement on the chart and then using stop losses on top of this, gives us further control of our money management.
We hope this quick basic insight helps some of the newbies better manage their lot size usage.
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GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Metals
WHAT IS BULL TRAP?📊
⚠️A bull trap is a false signal about an uptrend in stocks, indices or other stock assets, in which, after an impressive rally, the rate reverses and breaks through the previous support level. Such a change seems to "catch" traders or investors who acted on a buy signal, and brings losses on long positions. A bull trap can also be called a "saw" trend.
The opposite of a bull trap is a "bear trap", it occurs when sellers cannot push the price below the resistance level.
❗️A bull trap is a reversal of the exchange rate, due to which market participants hoping for an opposite price movement close positions with unexpected losses.
❗️Bull traps occur when buyers fail to continue the rally that has broken through the resistance level.
❗️Traders and investors may fall into bull traps less often if they analyze the probability of further growth after the breakdown using technical indicators and/or divergence patterns.
✅The essence of the concept
⏺A bull trap occurs when a trader or investor buys an asset that has broken through the resistance level – a generally accepted strategy based on technical analysis. Although there is often a rapid growth of the exchange rate after the breakdown, the price can quickly change direction. This situation is called a "bull trap" – traders and investors who bought the breakdown are "caught" in a trading "trap".
⏺It can be avoided if you observe additional signs of a level breakdown. In particular, the growth of above-average trading volume and the appearance of bullish candles after the breakdown can confirm that the price is likely to continue to rise. And a breakdown in which the volume decreases, or candlesticks with a small body – for example, the doji star – may be signs of a bull trap.
⏺From the point of view of psychology, bull traps occur when bulls are unable to continue the rally after the breakdown of the level, this may be due to the lack of momentum and/or profit taking. Bears, if they see discrepancies, may seize the opportunity to sell the asset and thereby push prices below the resistance level, which may trigger stop-loss orders.
⏺The best way to deal with bull traps is to recognize warning signs in advance, such as a low breakdown volume, and exit the deal as soon as possible. Stop losses, especially if the market is moving fast, can help in this and prevent you from making a decision under the influence of emotions.
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Triangle Patterns 📐
❗️The triangle is one of the most common and reliable figures of graphical analysis. This is a strong pattern that can bring you a lot of points of profit if you approach its trading correctly.
✅What is a triangle pattern?
⚠️A triangle pattern is a pattern formed on a price chart. It is usually identified when the tops and bottoms of the price move towards each other, like the sides of a triangle. When the upper and lower levels of the triangle interact with the price, traders expect a possible breakdown. Thus, many breakout traders use triangle formations to find entry points.
✅Symmetrical Triangle
A universal pattern can act both as a trend continuation figure and as a reversal figure. A symmetrical "Triangle" is formed by two converging support and resistance lines. It turns out such a picture - "bears" are gradually pushing the price down from the resistance line, "bulls" are pushing quotes up from the support line. As a result, one of them turns out to be stronger and the price breaks through the border of the symmetrical "Triangle", simultaneously collecting protective orders (Stop Loss / Stop) and pending orders. The position should be opened in the direction of the breakdown, after the price closes outside the boundaries of the symmetrical "Triangle".
If the upper limit of the "Triangle" is broken, we buy, limit losses — we put a Stop Loss for the nearest minimum of the "Triangle", the benchmark for working out is the value of H (in points) — the base of the "Triangle" (the largest wave in the "Triangle"). If the lower limit of the "Triangle" is broken, we sell, limit losses — We put a stop for the nearest maximum of the "Triangle", the benchmark for working out is the value of H (in points) — the base of the "Triangle" (the largest wave in the "Triangle").
✅Ascending Triangle
The pattern is a continuation of the upward trend, but sometimes it is possible to work in the opposite direction. An ascending "Triangle" has been formed between the horizontal resistance level and the ascending support line. In the course of the upward trend, the "bulls" rest against a strong resistance level, which they cannot immediately overcome. From this level there are pullbacks downwards — waves of an ascending "Triangle". But gradually the pullbacks become smaller and at some point the bulls, having bought all the bearish sell orders, break through this level up, collecting Stops and pending buy orders. After breaking through the upper boundary of the ascending "Triangle", purchases are recommended, the Stop is placed below the nearest minimum of the "Triangle", working out is the value of the base of the "Triangle" H (in points), this is the largest wave of the "Triangle".
✅Descending Triangle
The pattern is a continuation of the downward trend, but sometimes it is possible to work in the opposite direction. A descending "Triangle" is formed by two lines — a descending resistance line and a horizontal support level. During the downtrend, the "bears" stumble upon a strong support level, which they cannot break through immediately. This is followed by several pullbacks up from this level, during which a descending "Triangle" is formed. In the end, the "bears" sweep away all orders for the purchase of "bulls" and break through the support level down, collecting buyers' stops and pending sales orders. After breaking through the lower boundary of the descending "Triangle", sales are recommended, the Stop is placed above the nearest maximum of the "Triangle", the value of working out H is the size of the base of the "Triangle" — its largest wave.
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🔍Studying horizontal volumes🤔🔍Volumes are one of the most useful tools on the market, That gives the most objective information about the alignment of forces between buyers and sellers (with qualitative analysis, of course). It is necessary to learn how to correctly interpret volumes ( volume analysis) and the trader gets a powerful tool at his disposal. Add to this risk management and money management (without this, you will never succeed in the market) and get one of the most profitable strategies.
There are two types of volume: horizontal and vertical. And in this eduaction idea, we will get a little acquainted with horizontal volumes.
🧐 What is it?
Horizontal volumes are a histogram based on the number of trades made at a price level. Unlike vertical volumes, that tells us about the volume traded for the set time period, horizontal volumes show the volume traded at the price level. This tool will allow to identify highly probable reversals, as well as areas of support and resistance . Thanks to TradingView, everyone can use the horizontal volume indicator for free. Thank you so much🙌
📊 Horizontal volume indicator includes:
➡️ Value Zone/Area
➡️ VAH (value area high)
➡️POC (point of control)
➡️ VAL (value area low)
All of the above can be seen on the graph (marked on the graph above).
The Value Zone/Area is the so-called "body" of the histogram for the selected period and is formed in the place where 70% (by default) of the total volume has passed.
🟡 VAH (value area high) is the top line of the value area. The upper line of the value zone can play the role of resistance and support.
🔴 VAL (value area low) is the bottom line of the value area. Formed where volumes are declining. The lower line of the VAL value zone can also play the role of resistance and support.
You need to be very careful when the price approaches VAH and VAL❗️
🔵 POC (Point of Control) is the most important level. It is a support or resistance zone depending on where the price is above or below the POC. As long as the crowd has not formed an imbalance in the POC area, the price will move either higher or lower than the POC. At this time, it is better not to trade, and let the price decide, entering from a re-test of the formed balance.
📈 How to trade?
Remember that everything needs experience! You will need time to develop your strategy based on horizontal volumes or to include this tool in your existing arsenal. Analysis, observation and again analysis! Pay special attention to POC, this level is the most important and interesting in terms of opening a position. Here you should pay attention to the weekly POC and intraday.
On the charts above, you can see trades in Gold ( XAUUSD ) and Silver ( XAGUSD ) that were opened exactly from the POC week (previous). You can observe the results yourself. Of course, there are also losing trades, but with the observance of risk management and a systematic risk/reward ratio, success is guaranteed.
🔴 Conclusion
Horizontal volumes will help identify (but more confirm) support and resistance levels/areas. Near VAH, VAL and POC, one should be as careful as possible, as this is a good opportunity for a probable entry into a trade. We can call it a "creative process": you will definitely see and form many entry and strategy opportunities based on this.
😉 Thank you for reading and profitable trades ❗️
WHAT TYPE OF TRADER ARE YOU?👨🎓👩🎓
⚠️Who is a Trader?
✅A trader is a trader, a speculator, acting on his own initiative and seeking to profit directly from the trading process. This usually means trading securities (stocks, bonds, futures, options) on the stock exchange.
✅Traders are also called traders in the foreign exchange (including forex) and commodity markets (for example, "oil trader"). Trading is carried out by a trader on both the exchange and over-the-counter markets.
✅The trader should not be confused with other traders who carry out transactions at the request of clients or in their interests (dealer, broker, distributor).
❗️What kind of traders are there? Types of traders:
1️⃣Scalper
Scalping is a trading strategy that involves making a large number of transactions within a day. Scalpers make at least 10 trades a day. With an active market, professionals can make up to 100 trades. Scalpers play on small price fluctuations to get a small profit from each transaction. Often, a transaction can last less than a minute.
Scalping can be considered a profession. The scalper's workplace is his scalper terminal. Here he spends a full working day. Scalpers analyze the market by the glass, the tape of transactions and clusters, less often by charts. As a rule, scalpers do not use technical analysis indicators for analysis. The main working timeframes of the scalper are from 1m to 5m.
Many traders start with scalping. In theory, a scalper can seriously disperse a small deposit within a short time. Also, making a large number of transactions allows you to “fill your hand" faster. However, scalping requires a trader to be stress-resistant, disciplined and willing to learn from losses.
2️⃣Day Trader
Day traders also trade within the day. They do not transfer transactions “through the night”, closing positions during the day or trading session (depending on the type of market, stock or cryptocurrency). As a rule, day traders make 5-10 trades a day.
The market is analyzed through a glass, a tape of transactions, clusters and charts. Sometimes technical indicators are used. The working timeframes of day traders are from 5m to 1h.
This type of trading is less demanding on the trader than scalping. But it also requires stress tolerance and willingness to spend your day at the computer. It will not be possible to fully trade inside the day via the phone.
For successful trading, scalpers and day traders must adhere to strict risk management. They set the daily drawdown and determine the drawdown for each trade. As soon as a trader reaches the daily drawdown level, trading for the current day ends for him.
3️⃣Swing Trader
Swing trading is based on capturing one major movement in the market (one "swing" of the price). Its essence is to exit the transaction before the price goes back to correction.
Swing trading is different from day trading, which usually involves more frequent short positions and more active trading. It is also different from long-term investments and buy-and-hold strategies that take place over a long period of time.
Swing trading refers to medium-term trades ranging from a few days to weeks. This technique got its name because of the determination of the maximum and minimum of each oscillation. Its essence consists in opening medium-term positions on the asset, which are held from several days to weeks.
Choosing the time to hold a position in the market at the bottom or height of each medium—term trend is what distinguishes a swing trader from a day trader. Swing traders conduct extensive market research, be it fundamental or technical analysis.
Anyone can become a swing trader. Start by understanding the definition of what swing trading means, learn all the basics. and then start researching whether swing trading is right for you.
What type of trading do you prefer?
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What is LEVERAGE in Forex💰
❗️Leverage is a brokerage service that is a loan in the form of cash or securities provided to a trader to secure a transaction. The loan amount may exceed the amount of the trader's deposit by 10, 20, 100 or more times. By analogy with the law of physics, leverage works as a lever, enabling a trader to make deals that he would not be able to with his own funds alone. The maximum leverage on the exchange does not depend on the trader's desire and the broker's capabilities. It is calculated based on the risks established by the clearing center for each asset. For example, if the risk amount for any stock is set at 10%, a trader will be able to trade it with a leverage of 1 to 10. If the risk value is 30%, then it is impossible to get a leverage greater than 1 to 3.
Making transactions on the exchange using leverage is called margin trading. It is the conclusion of purchase and sale transactions using borrowed funds issued against the security of a certain amount, which is called margin. In other words, in order to use the leverage service, you must have a minimum amount on the deposit (set by the broker), which will be the collateral.
The amount of leverage in trading is the ratio of the amount of the trader's own funds to the amount of the transaction (1:100, 1:1000). For example, if this indicator is 1:500, it means that the broker provides a loan amount 499 times higher than the investor's deposit. At the same time, one part of the investor's funds and 499 borrowed funds are used in the transaction.
The word "credit" scares many away, but in fact there is nothing terrible in this concept. Leverage can indeed be called a loan in the usual sense of the word, but the interest on the use of borrowed assets is significantly less than the usual bank. When transferring the positions of the transaction to the next day, a commission is withdrawn from the account in the amount of the difference in the interest rates on the loan and the deposit - the so-called swap, which can be considered an analogue of the fee for using leverage.
The loss on the transaction is deducted from the trader's own funds, if as a result their volume becomes less than the permissible minimum margin value, the broker will send a notification that the money is running out and the bidder needs to either replenish the account or close the position. Such an alert is called a Margin Call. If no action is taken, the transaction will be closed automatically (Stop out).
✅How to trade with leverage
Leverage is a financial instrument that, with a competent approach, allows you to make large transactions and get a good profit even on small deposits. In order to use this tool correctly, follow the simple recommendations:
Focus on your own deposit. Calculate the risks based on the available amount.
It is better to use a small amount of borrowed funds, which will not allow you to lose all the money at once.
With any leverage size, never trade for the entire deposit. Ideally, one operation should account for 1-2% of the deposit amount.
Be sure to set Stop loss levels, this will help reduce risks.
⚠️IMPORTANT! Stop loss is an order that fixes the financial result when the price of the selected instrument reaches a certain level. The Stop loss parameter can be set before opening a position or after. But there is one important point: in a sale transaction, the specified level should be no less than the current price on the market, and in a purchase transaction - no more.
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#3 | Impulsive wave VS corrective waveDon't say you've been in the financial markets for more than a year and you still can't differentiate between these two waves!!!
Let me remind you again...
YOU WON'T BE A PROFESSIONAL ANALYST IF YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND THE STRUCTURE OF WAVES YOU ARE LOOKING AT.
I'll assume you're familiar with Elliott waves and Dow theory, so I won't go into detail about the difference between an impulsive wave and a correction.
Instead of that...
There are too many types of waves... But, you're good to go if you can understand only these 7 waves.
Impulsive waves
12345 (Rare)
WXYXZ
WXY
Corrective waves
It may come as an ABC wave or an ABCDE. But, 99% of the time, it will give you one of these basic flag pattern.
Regular
Running
Expanding
Contracting
I will explain each of those patterns in detail if I see likes...
Comment below. Which one should we start with? corrective or impulsive waves?
Types of Orders & Their Features📚
⚠️One of the first things that novice traders should learn is how to use different types of orders. The exact number of orders available to you often depends on which broker you are going to use.
Learning how to use different types of orders correctly is part of comprehensive trading training.
❗️The most popular types of forex orders:
✅Market orders
A market order is probably the simplest and most common type of order. It is usually executed immediately by the broker if it has not arrived in too large a size or has been placed in fast-moving markets.
As the name implies, market orders include buying or selling a currency pair at the current market rate. Market orders can be used by a trader for long or short positions. They can also be used to close current positions by buying or selling.
One of the main advantages of market orders is that they are almost always executed. The disadvantage of using market orders is that you can get an unexpectedly unfavorable price if the market moves quickly against your position.
✅Limit orders
Whenever a trader wants to specify a lower or higher price at which an order should be executed, this type of order is called a limit order. Limit orders can be used to stop losses, as well as to fix profits.
The name of this type of order arises from the fact that the trader demanded that transactions concluded on his behalf be limited to transactions executed at the specified exchange rate or better.
In practice, however, limit orders are usually executed at the specified price, although a broker may offer a better order execution rate to impress a particularly good client.
Some traders like to use a certain type of limit order, which is called a Fill or Kill or FOK order. The first type of FOK order tells the broker to either fully execute the order at a certain price, or cancel it. The second type of FOK order instructs the broker to immediately execute all orders at the specified price, and then cancel all others. This last type of Fill or Kill order is most often used when trading large amounts.
✅Take Profit orders
The take profit order is one of the most common types of limit orders. As the name suggests, it is usually used by a trader who wants to liquidate an existing position with a profit. Therefore, the price level indicated in the take profit order should be better than the prevailing market rate.
If the trader's initial position is short, the take profit order will include the redemption of this short position at a price lower than the prevailing one in the market. Conversely, if they held a long position in accordance with the take profit order, it would be liquidated if the market moved up.
Traders may sometimes indicate that their take profit orders are of the "All or Nothing" or AON type. This means that the order must be either fully executed or not executed at all. AONs are used to prevent partial execution of orders, which may be considered undesirable.
Alternatively, traders can choose to partially fill in a smaller amount than the entire amount of the take profit order. This can be useful if the broker trying to execute the order can only execute part of the order at the exchange rate specified in the order.
✅Stop loss orders
A stop loss order is another very common type of order, usually used to liquidate an existing position. Such orders are usually executed as market orders as soon as the stop loss level is triggered when trading currency at this level.
In fact, when the market has gone against an existing position to a point and the exchange rate has reached the specified stop loss level, the stop loss order is executed and causes the trader to incur a loss.
However, a stop loss order limits the trader's further losses if the price continues to move in the same unfavorable direction. This makes stop loss orders an important part of risk management strategies for many traders.
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FALSE BREAK | Price Action Trading📊
⚠️How often have you opened a key level breakout trade, and then the price turned against you? False breakout happens quite often and it is a problem for many traders who buy at highs and sell at lows.
Breakout trading is a fairly popular and viable trading strategy. However, some breakouts often turn out to be false. This can be quite frustrating, not to mention that it can often lead to a losing trade.
However, in many cases, an experienced trader can analyze the market situation and react to it accordingly. False breakouts can make a profit if you know how to trade them correctly.
❗️A false breakdown is a situation when the price violates an obvious level, but then suddenly changes direction. When the initial breakout of the level occurs, many traders open a trade in the direction of the breakdown. These traders are trapped when the price reverses, which triggers a series of stop losses. New traders are also entering the market, and this puts additional pressure on the price. This often turns the price into a new trend, the opposite of the initial breakout.
A breakout that turns out to be false is a sign of strength in a downtrend or weakness in an uptrend.
As you can see, a false breakout can easily cause significant losses for any trader.
Some traders develop their entire strategy around trading false breakouts, as this can be a very powerful trading approach. Some of the best trades happen when market players fall into a trap and their stops start to work.
✅How to find patterns of false breakouts?
🟢If you do not learn how to correctly identify false breakouts, you will not be able to trade them profitably. For example, there will be situations when the price returns to the breakout point, and only then continues its movement.
🟢One of the ways to detect false breakouts is to monitor the volume. Real breakouts are usually accompanied by strong indications of trading volume at the time of the breakout. When this volume is absent, there is a higher probability that the breakout will not happen.
🟢Thus, if the trading volume is low or it decreases during the breakout, a false breakout is likely to occur. In contrast, if the volume is large or it increases, a real breakdown is likely.
🟢It is also useful to monitor not only the trading volume but also the price movement on the lower timeframe. In many cases, you will see that the price makes a very sharp pullback on the lower timeframe, which is not visible on the higher timeframe.
✅False Breakout Trap
🟢After all, many trading textbooks say that a breakout can be considered confirmed when a candle closes above the resistance level. However, the price moves in your direction for a while and then turns 180 degrees. As a result, you have a stop loss triggered.
🟢The false breakout trap includes several candlesticks, usually 1-4, that go beyond the key support or resistance level. Such breakouts occur after a strong movement, as the market has reached an important level, but the price momentum still retains its strength.
Have you ever been trapped by a false breakout?
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TRIPLE TOP PATTERN | Tips on How to Trade it📚
❗️A triple top is a type of graphical pattern that is used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of an asset's price movement. Consisting of three peaks, the triple top signals that the asset may no longer be growing, and that lower prices are possible.
Triple tops can occur on all timeframes, but in order for the model to be considered a triple top, it must occur after an uptrend. The opposite of a triple is a triple bottom, which indicates that the asset price is no longer falling and may rise higher.
✅How the triple vertex works
The triple top pattern occurs when the price of an asset creates three peaks at approximately the same price level. The area of peaks is resistance . The pullback between peaks is called the swing minimum . After the third peak, if the price falls below the lows of the fluctuation, the model is considered completed, and traders expect further downward movement.
Three consecutive peaks make the triple peak visually similar to the "head and shoulders" pattern; however, in this case, the average peak is almost equal to the other peaks, and not higher. The model is also similar to the double top model, when the price touches the resistance area twice, creating a pair of high points before falling.
Triple tops are traded in almost the same way as the "head and shoulders" figures.
Let's say the stock price peaks at $119, drops to $110, rises to $119.25, rolls back to $111, rises to $118, then falls below $111, which is a triple top and signals that the stock is probably moving down.
✅The value of the triple vertex
Technically, the triple top pattern shows that the price cannot break through the peak area. Translated into real events, this means that after several attempts, the asset cannot find many buyers in this price range. When the price drops, it forces all traders who bought during the pattern to start selling. If the price cannot rise above the resistance, there is limited potential for profit retention. As the price falls below the minimum of the fluctuation of the model, sales may increase as former buyers exit long positions and new traders open short ones. This is the psychology of the model and what helps fuel the sale after its completion.
No template works all the time. Sometimes a triple top is formed and completed, which makes traders believe that the asset will continue to fall. But then the price may recover and rise above the resistance area. In order to protect, a trader can place a stop loss on short positions above the last peak or above the recent maximum of the fluctuation within the model. This move limits the risk of a trade if the price does not fall, but instead rises.
✅Trading on Triple Top patterns
Some traders open a short position or exit long positions as soon as the asset price falls below the support of the model. The support level of the model is the most recent swing minimum following the second peak, or alternatively, the trader can connect the swing minima between the peaks with the trend line. When the price falls below the trend line, the figure is considered completed and further price decline is expected.
To add a confirmation of the model, traders will keep an eye on the large volume when the price falls through the support. The volume should increase, which indicates a strong interest in sales. If the volume does not increase, the model is more prone to failures (the price rises or does not fall as expected).
The pattern provides a lower target equal to the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout point. This goal is approximate. Sometimes the price will fall far below the target, other times it will not reach the target.
⚠️Other technical indicators and graphical models can also be used in combination with the triple top. For example, a trader can watch the bearish crossing of the MACD after the third peak or the exit of the RSI from the overbought zone to confirm the price drop.
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Q3(3RD QUARTER) ANALYSIS FOR GOLD, BULLISH BEFORE BEARISH Hey guys.
I'm Martin Sylvester😅😅😅😅
Everything Charts.
I want to engage you a little.
If your chart is open.
You could use horizontal lines on the higher Timeframe like D1.
Something is really really nice there and I spotted it. I may be wrong but it's so sweet and I'll like to share it.
$2000 price
$1900 price
$1800 price
$1700 price
Each with 1000pips separation but really aligns to price movements on Gold.
I'm more of a round up number person when it comes to dissecting a chart.
So Gold found itself at $1800 and just spiked to $1790.
When Gold got to $2000, it spiked to a midpoint $2050 but $2000 is the main main part, it went down to $1900, patterned it's movement back to $2000, dragged down to $1800
From all indications, history repeats itself😅😅😅😅😅
We are likely to see a move to $1900 or $1950 cos for Gold to spike to $2050 but main price point is $2000, history will repeat itself from past data that it will get to $1900 and may possibly spike to $1950/$1960.
Then drop down as before...
When it spiked to $2050/$2060, what happened???
It dropped to $1900, made a Retracement to $2000 and dropped to $1800.
So let's see it this way..
Rally to $1900, spike to $1950/$1960, then a drop to $1700.
That's like 2000pips plus repeated on historical data of the charts..
Cos $2050/$2000 to $1800 is 2500pips move...
So if there's a Retracement to $1950/$1900, it will be another 2500pips move if we were to look at how data collides with algorithm and repeats itself.
2500pips decline from $1950/$1900 would be at exactly $1700 as predicted earlier.
Trade with caution but these are just speculations, I may be wrong (as I'll always say).
I'm open to corrections(as I'll always say).
If you can take your time to mark these price points, it will help with trades for Gold(XAUUSD).
Lest I forget, there are in-between reaction price points too that I know of that moves in 200pips difference.
Lemme list them starting from top to bottom
$2070
$2050(midpoint for $2000 and $3000)
$2030
$2010
$1990
$1970
$1950(midpoint for $1900 and $2000)
$1930
$1910
$1890
$1870
$1850(midpoint $1800 and $1900)
$1830
$1810
$1790
$1770
$1750(midpoint for $1700 and $1800)
$1730
$1710
$1690
$1670
$1650 (midpoint for $1600 or $1700)
Yours Truly,
Martin I. Sylvester
Financial Market Analyst
FIBONACCI TOOL | common reversal levels📊
⚠️Fibonacci levels are one of the most popular tools for analysis. These are price levels that are located in certain parts of the movement corresponding to the mathematical Fibonacci numbers.
✅What are Fibonacci numbers?
🟢In the XIII century, the famous scientist Leonardo of Pisa lived in the Republic of Pisa – the first major medieval mathematician in Europe. On the cover of one of his most famous works was attributed filius Bonacci (son of Bonacci). Hence the nickname Fibonacci.
🟢The Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers derived from Leonardo's experiment on rabbits. The Pisan mathematician decided to find out how many pairs of rabbits will be in a fenced pen a year after the start of breeding (provided that there will be only one pair in the pen in the first month). In the third month, the cuts began to multiply recurrently – each subsequent number was equal to the sum of the previous two (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.).
🟢If any number from the sequence is divided by the previous one, you get a number tending to 1.61803398875… This number is the "golden ratio". In algebra, such a number is called the Greek letter phi. When dividing any number from the sequence by the following, the inverse of phi 0.618 is obtained. When dividing any number from the sequence by the number following one, 0.382 is obtained. In this form, Fibonacci numbers are much more familiar to traders.
✅Correction levels
🟢Correction (retracement) - movement against an existing trend. The correction "absorbs" part of the trend movement. Of the Fibonacci numbers, 38.2 are mainly used for correction levels (from the previous trend movement), 50%, 61,8%, 78,6%.
🟢Correction levels are based on candle wicks, in other words, on their maximum or minimum points. To build a correction level, you need to find a trend. Fibo levels can be asymmetrical, so it is especially important to pay attention to where the beginning and end of the wave on which the level is being built are located.
🟢On a downtrend, 0% at the bottom, 100% at the top. When ascending, the opposite is true. The most significant correction level is 61.8. When a breakdown of this level occurs, a new trend in the opposite direction usually begins. After that, it is necessary to build a new corrective level.
🟢Correction pattern – movement between minor correction levels. After such a move, the price usually moves to the key level of 61.8. 4 patterns are depending on which levels of correction the price concerns.
❗️Even if the skills of analyzing the state of the market by Fibonacci levels will not be a big advantage in trading, then in any case it is a great (and to some extent integral) experience of technical analysis. Fibo levels can be combined with a footprint, deltas, and other tools. The trader will understand only in practice if it is possible to benefit from this or not.
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What does it mean “Cash is the King”?InterMarketAnalysis June 2022 could be name one of the worst months for investors, NASDAQ Composite is down -6.7%, OIL is down -3.1%, gold is down -0.85%, and cryptocurrency market is down -30% so far..! Some times you need to stay out and wait for good opportunities to come to you..!
The DXY index on the other hand is +2.64% so far, which means USD became stronger than most asset classes!
Best,
3 Types of Charts You Must Know 📈
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 3 most popular types of charts.
We will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each one, and you will decide what type is the most appropriate for you.
📈Line Chart.
Line chart is the most common chart applied by analysts. Reading financial articles in different news outlets, I noticed that most of the time the authors apply line chart for the data representation.
On a price chart, the only parameter that the one can set is a time period.
Time period will define a time of a security closing price. The security closing prices overtime will serve as data points.
These points will be connected with a continuous line.
Line charts are applied for displaying an asset's price history, reducing the noise from less volatile times.
Being simplistic, they can provide a general picture and market sentiment. However, they are considered to be insufficient for pattern recognition and in depth analysis.
📏Range Bar Chart.
In contrast to a line chart, a range bar chart does not consider time horizon. The only parameter that the one can set is a price range.
By the range, I mean a price interval where the price moves. A new bar will be formed only once the prices passes the desired range.
Such a chart allows to completely ignore time variable focusing only on price movement and hence reducing the market noise.
The chart will plot new bars only when the market is volatile, and it will stagnate while the market is weak and consolidating.
Accurately setting a desired price range, one can get multiple insights analyzing a range bar chart.
🕯Candlestick Chart.
The most popular chart among technicians and my personal favorite.
With just one single parameter - time period, the chart plots candlesticks.
Each candlestick is formed as a desired time period passes.
It contains an information about the opening price level, closing price, high and low of a selected time period.
Candlestick chart is applied for pattern recognition and in-depth analysis. Its study unveils the behavior of the market participants and their actions at a desired time period.
Of course, each chart has its own pluses and minuses. Choosing its type, you should know exactly what information do you want to derive from the chart.
What chart type do you prefer?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
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CUP & HANDLE. How the pattern works☕️
✅This pattern is not as popular among traders as "Head and Shoulders", "Double Top" and other classic patterns of technical analysis. However, this does not mean that it is not so effective. In fact, the "Cup & Handle" pattern is in no way inferior to the above patterns in its reliability and, if used correctly, can bring considerable benefits to the trader.
✅Below we will look at how the "Cup & handle" is formed, what are the signs of authenticity of the formed pattern, and the trading strategy for it.
⚠️How the "Cup & Handle" formation is formed
The formation of this pattern occurs on an uptrend and is a sure sign of its continuation (subject to the conditions of authenticity of the pattern). In essence, it is a cup - an uptrend correction. The price reaches a strong resistance level, cannot overcome it, and smoothly rolls back, forming the left wall of the cup. Then it smoothly unfolds along the bottom and rises to test the level again. Having reached the level, it rolls back down again. This rollback should be much smaller than the previous one, and it forms a handle. The handle of the cup is very often formed in the form of a "Flag" pattern.
The "Cup & handle" pattern is considered fully formed when the price, having formed a "handle", returns up and breaks through the resistance level from which the pattern formation began
⚠️Confirmation of the truth of the "Cup & handle" pattern
There are several conditions, without which the formed pattern cannot be considered true. These are the conditions:
1️⃣To begin with, as mentioned above, for the formation of this pattern, it is necessary to have an uptrend. Without a trend, there is no point in looking for this formation on the price chart, because even if you find a drawing of an ideal cup with a handle, it will be just a drawing that has no meaning.
2️⃣The depth of the forming cup should not exceed 2/3 of the height of the previous uptrend. The optimal depth of the cup is within 1/3 - 2/3 of this value.
The depth of the forming handle should not exceed a value equal to ½ of the depth of the cup.
3️⃣The most reliable is the "Cup & Handle" pattern formed on daily or weekly timeframes. Of course, it can also be formed on hourly charts, but where the probability of its triggering is somewhat lower.
4️⃣The "Cup & handle" pattern should be confirmed by the indicators of the volume indicator. Volumes should grow at a time when the price is moving in the direction of an uptrend and fall when it decreases. Also, a sharp surge in volume should accompany the moment of breaking through the price level at the end of the formation of the figure.
🟢Trading strategy based on the "Cup & handle"
The entry into the position is carried out after the completion of the formation of the figure. It is recommended to wait for the price to close above the resistance line. To do this, you must constantly monitor the schedule in anticipation of the right moment.
There is also a strategy for opening a position on a pending order, in which case there is no
need to sit and wait for the completion of the figure. A pending order is placed at a level slightly above the resistance level (approximately 10 points) and is triggered if the figure is completed.
The target level for this pattern is the height of the cup, laid up from the resistance level. Therefore, we set the profit-taking level of TAKE PROFIT either at the target level or 10-15 points below it.
As for the STOP LOSS limit order, it should be placed at the level of the bottom of the handle (or slightly lower).
❗️In conclusion, I will say once again how important it is to correctly identify the "Cup and Handle" formation before you start trading on it. Carefully re-read the rules confirming this pattern. Try not to mess with the patterns formed on small timeframes. Take your time, be patient, and remember that the absence of open positions can also be considered an excellent position.
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Shocking Truths about Trading no one talks about EP1.After 5 years of self-educating myself in the art of trading while undergoing brutal consistent losses, these are the truths that set me on the path of surprising consistency after internalizing them.....I hope it will for you guys and give more inspiration to the already consistent ones.
Shocking Truths no one talks about in trading:
1. You may have the best strategy, signal provider or learned everything about trading, but what counts is what happens to that knowledge 5 seconds before pressing the buy/sell button.
2. What is Mathematically optimal is Psychologically impossible.
If you have a strategy that gets wins of 25R but has like 12 losses in a row, DUMP IT.
Mathematically, you will make money at the end, Psychologically you will quit before you take trade 13.
3. You start winning in trading when you believe you can lose (Trading Paradox).
Consistently profitable traders have one thing in common: they place their next trade like it was already a loser.
4. Extremely good analysts are most often bad traders....you can be right about the direction but fail in the critically important aspect of Entry timing and still lose the trade.
5. IT IS THE SIMPLE THINGS THAT WORK!.
Most people will tell you to look for complex strategies that look for "Random walk algorithmic discrepancies that rhyme with Chaos theories....and all that blah..." But I have been on that path and I hate to break it to you that a guy/girl using only support and resistance and simple moving average crossovers with a verified and bactested edge and discipline will most likely be more profitable.
5. THE MORE OBVIOUS A TRADE IS THE GREATER THE CHANCES YOU LOSE IT.
Most people think that if a trade has soooo many confluences it is more likely to work....well that might be true to an extent after which it is a blatant fallacy. From historical data and my own personal LIVE trading results, the probability of a trade working out reduces DRASTICALLY when the number of confluences crosses 5.
I theorize that this happens because market makers will see all the orders placed at that point is soo much(cause everyone will see the opportunity with their different approaches) and take them all out.
6. No one can sell a money printer, cause it has no price.
If someone offers to sell you a robot or STRATEGY that triples your money every month, laugh and pass, if you don't and end up buying that....you deserved to be scammed.
Think about it the person can just take $100 and apply his/her magic to it and print out Elon Musk's networth in lower than 3 years using compounding......and he/she will sell you that for $2000?, you must be kidding me!.
7. Your consistency has nothing to do with your strategy but your mind.
I can bet you my life's earnings, that there is someone out there, using your exact entry and exit rules but is profitable and you are not.
A better strategy brings in more profit, but any random edge with the right mindset and risk management MUST be profitable.
8. Almost everything in life is a pyramid-scheme, & survival of the fittest and trading is not left out.
No matter how much we desire to the contrary, it is IMPERATIVE THAT TRADING HAS MORE LOSERS THAN WINNERS.
The winners in trading have to be relatively fewer cause they win a lot and hence they need soo many losers to give them that money.
There is no bank that hands at money to you when you win, your job as a trader is to outsmart some other fellow and TAKE his/her money and once you come to terms that every dollar lost by you trading, is a dollar gained by someone else in this zero-sum game, you will realize only YOU has got your own back.
9. You can NEVER completely eliminate emotions in trading but you can set rules that allow you trade only when you are at your optimal state, and gives you a day or two vacation when you are down.
10. Reading this article will definitely NOT HELP YOU, it is remembering it the moment before you place your next trade that will.
Pls LIKE and Subscribe, I want to know what you think about this article and which point you agree with the most or disagree with.
Tell me whether it helped you in any way and if we get 50 likes and 20 comments I will consider making the next episode.
BID AND ASK BASICS📚
🔴In all markets, there is a price at which a market participant is willing to buy an asset and a price that suits the seller. At the same time, traders intend to carry out a purchase and sale transaction only within the amount that is profitable for them.
⚠️In the foreign exchange market, the ask line is the cost of buying an asset or the price that is set by the broker in the Buy order.
⚠️Bid - accordingly, the cost at which the broker opens a sell order when accepting an application for the sale of currency from a trader.
❗️The spread is the difference between ask and bid prices. To be more precise, the spread is the difference between the best bid and ask offers for a specific asset over a certain period. Thus, the spread is dynamic, changing over time. The spread value is formed by the initial value set by the broker, as well as due to the volatility of the currency. The spread can vary from 0.1 to 100 points.
✅In the market of physical goods, a similar example can be given: a seller and a buyer, haggling, narrow the difference between prices that satisfy them, bringing them to one at which they make a deal.
✅In the foreign exchange market, the spread between prices is the commission charged by the broker. It should be borne in mind that the broker takes a commission regardless of the volume of the transaction and its result.
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COMPOUND INTEREST | Time is on your side📚
❗️As it turned out, not all traders are familiar with such an important concept as compound interest. Meanwhile, the use of compound interest in trading can be a very effective tool for making a profit. In short, compound interest is the accrual of interest on interest, and if in detail, then read on.
✅The formula for calculating compound interest has the form:
Compound percentage = (P (1 + g)^ n) – P, where
P – the amount originally invested;
r – interest rate;
n is the investment period.
Let's say you invested an amount of $ 10,000, every year the interest received is added to the principal amount, and new interest is accrued for a larger amount. If the investment period is 5 years, and the interest rate is 10% per annum , then after the specified period, taking into account the compound interest, you will receive a profit in the amount of:
(10000(1+0.10)^5)-10000=6105.1$
And without taking into account the compound interest, the profit for the same period will be:
1000050,10-10000=5000$
As you can see, using compound interest (or in other words reinvesting profits) brought additional income in the amount of: 6105.1-5000 = 1105.1 $.
✅It seems that the figures presented above are not impressive, but the use of compound interest in trading can truly work wonders. In what way? Let's take another look at the compound interest formula described above. It is obvious from the formula that you can increase profit by increasing any of its components. Let's not touch the amount originally invested, but play with the value of the investment period and the interest rate.
To begin with, let's imagine that we will reinvest the profit not every year, but every month. Then the investment period will be 12 5 = 60 months. The interest rate corresponding to this investment period will be equal to: 10%/12=0.833%. Let's substitute these values into the formula for calculating the compound percentage:
(10000(1+0.00833)^60)-10000=6449,8$
As you can see, under the same conditions, but with monthly reinvestment of profits, the income will already be $ 6449.8- $6105.1 =$344.7 more.
Well, if the trader's income is not 0.833% per month, but, for example, 5% monthly, then under the same conditions and for the same period, the profit will already be:
(10000(1+0. 05 )^60)-10000=176791,86$
Felt the difference, impressive, isn't it? And what if you reinvest profits not monthly, but daily? Let's figure it out. With an average yield of 5% per month, the average daily yield will be 5%/21= 0.238% (here 21 is the number of working days in a month). The investment period will be 5360=1800 days. Let's substitute the data into the compound interest formula:
(10000(1+0.00238)^1800)-10000=711617,5$
This is already 711617.5-176791.86 = 534826 $ more than with monthly reinvestment of profits. More than half a million dollars (and this with an initial investment of only ten thousand)! That's impressive. That's what compound interest is in action.
⚠️This is about theory. In practice, it is impossible to achieve a constant percentage of profit every day. Some days a trader inevitably ends up with a loss, some with a profit, and the size of these losses and profits is always different. So it is unlikely to substitute the value of the percentage of profit per day in the above formula. However, the very essence of compound interest, clearly shown above in figures, gives the trader a fairly powerful tool for earning. A trader can and should use compound interest when creating his own money management system.
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How To Make Your Trading Plan In 7 Steps !How To Make Your Trading Plan In 7 Steps !
➡️ Choose The Correct Time Frame
All traders know what time frames are, but few know that each time frame has a specific way of working. Time frames from 15 minutes to 60 minutes fall under the name of day trading, meaning that all deals will be closed on the same day, whether with profit or loss, and traders call it the name "Scalping"
On the other hand, there is a time frame from 4 hours to the daily frame, which are considered long deals and traders call them “swing”
Time frames higher than the daily are considered investment centers and are not suitable for small capitals
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➡️ Risk Management
Most traders make a fatal mistake, which is not choosing a risk ratio for each trade, and this exposes the entire account to a loss. The best traders in the world believe that the reasonable risk ratio is between 1% to 3% for each trade.
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➡️ Conditions
You Must Choose Between " Ranging " Or " Trending "
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➡️ Markets
In Stock Markets We Have 4 Market ,,
- First One Is Option
Option or binary options is a currency, commodities and stock market that simulates the same conditions as the real markets, but you can set a time for the transaction and bet on the direction within a minute or two and you can win up to 90% of the bet amount, but in the event of a loss, you lose the entire bet amount and some believe that The option market has a lot of suspicions and scams
- Second Type Is Equity
- Third Type Is Futures
- Forth Type Is Forex
- Fifth Market Is Crypto Currency
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➡️ Type Of Your Entries
- Pull Back
- Break Out
- Cross Over
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➡️ How To Put Your Stop And Targets ?
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Print It And Don't Forget Any One From The 7 Steps To Be Successful Trader ❤️❤️
Most Popular Types Of Candles How to Read Candlestick charts?
Candlestick charts were originated in Japan over 100 years before the West had developed the bar charts and point-and-figure charts. In the 1700s, a Japanese man known as Homma discovered that as there was a link between price and the supply and demand of rice, the markets also were strongly influenced by the emotions of traders.
A daily candlestick charts shows the security’s open, high, low, and close price for the day. The candlestick’s wide or rectangle part is called the “real body” which shows the link between opening and closing prices.
This real body shows the price range between the open and close of that day’s trading.
When the real body is filled, black or red then it means that the close is lower than the open and is known as the bearish candle. It shows that the prices opened, the bears pushed the prices down and closed lower than the opening price.
If the real body is empty, white or green then it means that the close was higher than the open known as the bullish candle. It shows that the prices opened, the bulls pushed the prices up and closed higher than the opening price.
The thin vertical lines above and below the real body is knowns as the wicks or shadows which represents the high and low prices of the trading session.
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1- Hammer Candle
Hammer is a single candlestick pattern that is formed at the end of a downtrend and signals a bullish reversal.
The real body of this candle is small and is located at the top with a lower shadow which should be more than twice the real body. This candlestick chart pattern has no or little upper shadow.
The psychology behind this candle formation is that the prices opened, and sellers pushed down the prices.
Suddenly the buyers came into the market and pushed the prices up and closed the trading session more than the opening price.
This resulted in the formation of bullish pattern and signifies that buyers are back in the market and downtrend may end.
Traders can enter a long position if next day a bullish candle is formed and can place a stop-loss at the low of Hammer.
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2- Hanging Man
Hanging Man is a single candlestick pattern which is formed at the end of an uptrend and signals bearish reversal.
The real body of this candle is small and is located at the top with a lower shadow which should be more than the twice of the real body. This candlestick pattern has no or little upper shadow.
The psychology behind this candle formation is that the prices opened and seller pushed down the prices.
Suddenly the buyers came into the market and pushed the prices up but were unsuccessful in doing so as the prices closed below the opening price.
This resulted in the formation of bearish pattern and signifies that seller are back in the market and uptrend may end.
Traders can enter a short position if next day a bearish candle is formed and can place a stop-loss at the high of Hanging Man.
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3- Three White Soldiers
The Three White Soldiers is a multiple candlestick pattern that is formed after a downtrend indicating a bullish reversal.
These candlestick charts are made of three long bullish bodies which do not have long shadows and are open within the real body of the previous candle in the pattern.
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4- Inverted Hammer
An Inverted Hammer is formed at the end of the downtrend and gives a bullish reversal signal.
In this candlestick, the real body is located at the end and there is a long upper shadow. It is the inverse of the Hammer Candlestick pattern.
This pattern is formed when the opening and closing prices are near to each other and the upper shadow should be more than twice the real body.
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5- Piercing Pattern
Piercing pattern is a multiple candlestick chart pattern formed after a downtrend indicating a bullish reversal.
Two candles form it, the first candle being a bearish candle which indicates the continuation of the downtrend.
The second candle is a bullish candle which opens the gap down but closes more than 50% of the real body of the previous candle, which shows that the bulls are back in the market and a bullish reversal is going to take place.
Traders can enter a long position if the next day a bullish candle is formed and can place a stop-loss at the low of the second candle.
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6- White Marubozu
The White Marubozu is a single candlestick pattern that is formed after a downtrend indicating a bullish reversal.
This candlestick has a long bullish body with no upper or lower shadows which shows that the bulls are exerting buying pressure and the markets may turn bullish.
At the formation of this candle, the sellers should be caution and close their shorting position.
Don't Forget To Like And Follow To Next Part
Negative Divergences Often Warn of Declines: Bitcoin & Gold Negative Divergences Often Warn of Impending Declines: Bitcoin Highlighted…. Is Gold Next?
OTC:GBTC
COMEX:GC1!
INDEX:BTCUSD
The CMT Association is proud to publish this guest post from Louise Yamada CMT. Louise was a Managing Director and Head of Technical Research for Smith Barney (Citigroup), and while there, was a perennial leader in the Institutional Investor poll and the top-ranked market technician in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. Louise was the 2016 recipient of the CMT Association’s Lifetime Achievement Award.
In these examples we use the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator to illustrate the concept of divergence, to forensically evaluate Bitcoin and to make some forward looking observations on the gold market.
Divergences:
• Negative momentum divergences often warn of impending price consolidations or declines.
• Divergence forms as price moves to a new high while the oscillator fails at a lower high, creating a negative divergence between the oscillator and price.
• Divergences of this type suggest that the underlying momentum may be waning.
Divergences carry different implications depending upon their time frame.
• Daily perspective divergences suggest either a consolidation, or a pullback in an ongoing uptrend.
• Weekly perspective divergences suggest a more sustained consolidation or even a reversal of trend, particularly if important support is violated.
• Monthly divergences have the potential to result in a more sustained decline or even to reverse an uptrend.
MACD sell signals give validity to divergences.
• Monthly signals have much more weight than weekly and daily.
• Monthly divergences don’t always occur prior to monthly MACD sell signals
• But when a sell signal does occur it offers a structural warning.
Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Weekly:
• The March 2021 high (A) was followed by a roughly equal price high (B). However, the MACD momentum peaked at a significantly lower high (Line A1-B1), forming a classic divergence that suggested that upward momentum was fading.
• At point C, the weekly MACD moved onto a sell signal (the fast moving average crossed below the slower moving average) strongly suggesting that positions should be either lightened or sold.
• After the sell signal was generated, price declined from 50 to 24.
• A weekly MACD buy signal was then generated at point D. The subsequent rally carried price near the prior high.
• The failure of the MACD to match its prior high warned of potential weakness.
• The MACD generated another sell signal at point E, suggesting lightening or selling positions. Price offered another decline from 50 to 24.
• After a multi-week consolidation in March-April 2022, price broke below the support @24 (S1-S2).
• MACD continues to decline, suggesting that the price decline may not be over, notwithstanding interim rallies.
• Before considering a new long, evidence of stabilization at a low and the gradual reversal of the daily, weekly and eventually, monthly MACDs would be required.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Daily
• On the daily perspective chart that there is a divergence from price (A-B) and the MACD (C-D)
• The divergence warned of the possibility of bearish developments spreading to the weekly and monthly.
Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Monthly:
• The monthly chart also shows a divergence at points MD1 and MD2 and on the histogram at MD3 and MD4.
• At the second price high (B), MACD hadn’t yet generated a sell signal, but it was beginning to flatten and roll over.
• One can also see the falling histogram, as the MACD narrows (blue arrow), and the divergence progressed, until it finally generated a clear sell.
• Price lingered above the support at 24 (S2) for several months providing ample time to adjust positions before the May 2022 price breakdown.
Momentum is still declining, suggesting that it’s too soon to consider re-entry, notwithstanding interim rallies, which can carry into resistance, formerly support.
Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) relative to SPX Weekly:
• One can also note a similar warning in the weekly Relative Strength (RS) negative divergence.
• In this case the RS for BITCOIN/SPX was also suggesting a change from a period of relative overperformance to one of relative underperformance.
Is Gold Next?
Gold is displaying many of the same long term MACD warning behaviors evident in the GBTC chart.
COMEX Gold Daily:
• Despite the May 2020 (R1) and 2022 (R2) price peaks being roughly equal, the MACD (R3 & R4) peaked at a much lower level.
• A MACD Sell signal occurred after the 2020 peak (R3), alerting to the possible price decline, which eventually carried to the March 2021 low near 1,700 (S1).
• The lower March 2022 MACD peak (R4) also registered a sell signal, suggesting one might lighten positions.
COMEX Gold Monthly:
• There is a monthly multi-year MACD negative divergence between the 2012 (R1) and 2022 (R2) price peaks.
• In 2012, the monthly MACD structural sell signal (R3) was very effective as price collapsed toward 1,100 on the sell signal.
• In March 2022, the MACD, registered another major monthly sell (R4), and then subsequently rallied to test the high (R2) without generating a new buy signal (A), a sign of weakness.
• The MACD has remained negative and appears poised to perhaps continue down.
• This suggests that Gold may be in danger of a potentially large decline, especially if support at 1,700 is broken.
• Such a breach could easily find support at the breakout level from the 2013 to 2019 basing pattern at 1400.
• It is possible, however, that although GOLD has broken out in many other currencies, the extraordinary current strength in the US dollar may be contributing to the Gold disappointment.
Louise Yamada CMT
LYAdvisors LLC
ENGULFING CANDLE | powerful price reversal📚
✅The engulfing model (external bar) is mainly a reversal pattern (although in rare cases it may indicate a continuation of the trend). It looks like two candles, the first of which is small, and the second is large, with a body larger than the entire previous candle, and directed in the opposite direction.
✅From the point of view of crowd movement, such a pattern means that the strength of the current trend is drying up (this is evidenced by the small size of the first engulfing candle). The crowd does not know in which direction to move and, figuratively speaking, is marking time. The appearance of a powerful candle that absorbed the previous one and closed in the opposite direction marks the beginning of a new, strong trend.
⚠️There are several mandatory conditions that the pattern must meet in order for its signal to provide the maximum probability of working out:
1️⃣Before the pattern itself, there must be a downtrend or an uptrend in the market. The movement may be small, but its presence is mandatory;
2️⃣The body of the second candle should be of a different color and orientation (bearish after bullish and bullish after bearish). Shadows may not be absorbed, but then the signal is considered weaker;
3️⃣The body of the second candle should have a contrasting color with respect to the body of the first. The exception is when the body of the first candle is very small (doji or close to it).
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Austrailian Dollar Seasonal PatternsHey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Austrailian Dollar Futures Market. The Austrailian Dollar futures and forex follow an annual seasonal pattern with is also correlated with Gold during the year . Knowing when to find these seasonal patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of the Austrailian Dollar.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford