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Metals

GOLD: A lower buy opportunity that may arise on the long term.Gold has been on a very aggressive rise since it broke the 1,380 long term 1W Resistance. Recently it made contact with the Higher High trend line of its 1M Channel Up (RSI = 73.372, MACD = 46.760, Highs/Lows = 196.7521). Undoubtedly we have entered a new long term multi year Bull Cycle but that doesn't mean that the uptrend won't be without lows. Long term traders should look for pull backs to take advantage of as dip-buying opportunities. In order to identify those we looked into the early 1W candles of the past Bull Cycle in 2000. There are quite a few similarities of the 2000 Bull Cycle start with the current one. In the 2000s, the bear market bottom gave rise to a Golden Cross on 1W. That sustained the uptrend within the Channel Up until a new Higher High. Following that Higher High, Gold made a pull back to touch the 1W MA50 where it found support and on the next rise broke the Channel Up essentially starting the parabolic rise all the way to the 2011 All Time Highs. Similarly the former bear market has made its bottom in late 2015 and the Higher High that followed built up the 1M Channel Up. Following a Golden Cross, the market consolidated for 2 years (unlike the early 2000) and recently broke the 1,380 Resistance to make a Higher High. If the 2000 model is followed then we may be looking for a 1W MA50 test by the end of year - beginning of 2020, which should be an optimal long term buy opportunity for a break above the Channel Up at $1,700. Investing in Gold should be a priority for every fund, long term investor for at least the next 5 years. We will be updating our thesis on Gold with shorter term opportunities regularly. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by InvestingScope
2
BITCOIN VS GOLDI am seeing divergence in GOLD and BTC. BTC seller pressure and GOLD buying...people are "unsure" in the economy as to what is happening, they don't even want to think about elections, brexit stuff is still happening, JPY yen is getting stronger and BTC has corrected almost 50% this year..Asia holds most of BTC so as it climbs so does Yen alongside trade wars with the US. Lots of movement happening. Trump fuds dollar "too strong" as though it weakens and we keep pushing upward to try to make a new high before the value actually falls here later on....Play it safe everyone ^_^ Yellow Line is Gold...I like seeing when both gold and btc line up and move together...I will expect GOLD to fall and BTC to rise after 2021 opposite of each other for awhile. I want to see both move in the same direction again here in a few months probably closer to Christmas time. Gold chart is high..dont buy high lol...just know it has been rising as BTC has been correcting. That is all this idea is for observing. Thanks everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AschraM
2
Bearish flag analysis on XAUUSD (gold)From the chart, there has been an increase in gold in a close-knit candlestick pattern, with it increasing value. This has caused a bearish flag to arise. This is recognised due to: 1. quick increase to reach the basis of the flag. 2. once it was reached began forming an upwards flag shape with close-knit candlestick high/ low closes. 3. once the flag lines (orange) got closer together, there is an expected bear break out due to it being a rising flag. 4. This is also backed due to the reduced volume once the flag is reaching a close. 5. as it can be seen, the break out downwards should see the price of gold to begin to slowly fall. However, this is not the case lately due to today's actions by the Dow in response to Trump's tweets about China. Nonetheless, if such didn't occur this should see the XAUUSD to fall lower to reach 2nd support, leading to either consolidation or a bounce off support to bring the price of gold back up. If this did not occur gold prices will be in a downtrend. Due to Trumps recent tweets and fears of a recession due to the inverted bond yields, this may see gold prices to continue to rise upwards breaching resistance and being able to surge past $1580. This is an example of a bearish flag and can be used to analysis all other shares, crypto's and commodities, if probable analysis is completed.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by brendan_ellich
Mirror levels, How it can save you years and thounthends of USD.Today I want to share with 1 one type of key levels and also explain why it's so profitable for you to use it. This knowledge will save you years in trading and thousands of dollars. For a start lat`s discuss some fundamental rules in trading: 1. We trade probabilities. It means it's impossible to say with 100% accuracy current signal will close with profit or not but it's possible to say that if we open 100 entries we will close 50% ... 60% or 70% entries in profit. 2. You don't need to hunt for 100% accuracy. That's one of the most common mistakes of freshers because if you will learn what is Risk / Reward you will understand how really you can make money in trading. You can be profitable even if you have 30% — 40% of profit deals if you take enough risk/reward. Example of risk-reward. Just imagine that you have a risk per 1 position $100 and you always set potential profit (Risk/Reward (R/R)) 1 to 4 (in 4 times bigger) $400. If you will get 3 losses and 1 positive entry you still will be in profit. Calculations: -$100 -$100 -$100 + $400 = +$100. It is only 25% accuracy. 3. You always need to use the same risk per 1 position only in that case your mathematical expectancy will work. I will write more about it in the future posts if this idea will get more than 100 like. When we trade key levels we get: - Accurate entries. - Low predictable risk. - Potential profit is in many times bigger than a risk. Mirror level is: Support become Resistant or Resistance become Support . How you can find a mirror level? Drow key level and wait when the price will break it. Below I will show you how I do it. Key levels better to build on: - Trend change points - Many daily candles bounced from one level. It will be the most powerful levels which accumulate a lot of volumes. Examples: EUR/USD: Gold: SP 500: OIL : BTC/USD: You can see that this system works on all markets. P.S. It is only a first part about mirror levels. I will write more about: how it`s better to find levels on a chart, meanig of it and how big players accumulate volume using such type of key points if this post will reach 100 like. P.P.S. Write in comments about what questions you have about Mirror levels.
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
21
How to open accurate entries with key support resistance levelsIn this Education posit I want to share with you how to pic best places on a chart. Where to open entries with potential profit in 5...10 times bigger than a risk. I recommend to use Historical levels or Breakpoint of the trend: - Most of the retail traders set stop Losses below or above such key levels. - Stop Losses of retail traders is a Fuel for Big Players. - You Have low and predictable risk if you open entry after the false breakout of a key level. How to find such levels on a chart? - Price bounced from it and started a new trend. - An instrument made deep pullback from that point. What can make entry more accurate? Price sharply came to such level. Moved 2 or 3 Average daily move. UK OIL Example. 01 Aug 2019 oil rate drop-down 400 pips. It's more than 2,5 average daily move. after a false breakout price bounced up 300 pips. Risk in that entry was 30 pips. Potential profit in 10 times bigger. Examples: 1. US 2000 Index Price bounced from the breaking point 1454,6. 2. UK 100 Index 3. Dax 4. EUR/GBP 5. US OIL www.tradingview.com If u trade such level u can take in 5...10... bigger than you risk. P.S. Write your thoughts about this strategy. P.P.S. After 100 like I will write another educational post about my trading strategy and how you can use it.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Yuriy_Bishko
56
How much value has the dollar lost since 1971?Against the Swiss Franc which is also a fiat shitcoin, the USD fell 84% from 1971 to 2011 (40 years). Just by looking at how much it fell compared to Gold from 1975 to 2011, the USD lost 94% of its value. (1/XAUUSD = USDXAU) The same and worse holds for most fiat shitcoins right now. As for Bitcoin and USD, Bitcoin came into life when the USD restarted its uptrend after having lost a lot of its value against most other fiat currencies. There isn't a significant correlation we can spot between the two, even though over the last 2 years there seems to be more of a negative correlation. Even if the US gets stronger against other fiat currencies, most central banks are going to print so much that even if the Dollar gets stronger, Gold and Bitcoin could keep appreciating against the dollar and other fiat currencies.
Education
by BitcoinMacro
BTC EDU post - 100 followers THANK YOU!TL;DR - Go back in history from 1928 to today and research A.i. design / Banking / Market psychology cycles / the 1987 crash / - We are living in a butterfly effect wave caused by your world leaders when gold lost the greenback and it was no longer backed by the green anymore. If you are young in the markets you will want to read this. If you are over the age of 30 you most likely understand a lot of this... This is a story I decided to type up for my followers. Thank you very much for being so support even by liking and following. If you are young it is important for you to really read this.... ---------------------------- The year was 1999 and I was just 10 years old. At this time I didn't care much about the markets or money unless I wanted some candy or a new bike. One thing that did catch my attention was the panic and scare of something that was called the "Y2k Bug" where everyone thought all computers were going to reset to 0 and destroy lots of information data and loss of funds throughout accounts in global tech businesses. Luckily for me, I was a kid fascinated by technology and told my parents to not even worry that the problem was going to be resolved and most likely the news was just wanting to scare everyone. Because I was huge into conspiracy as a kid it actually took into my favor....See...I grew up liking conspiracies, aliens, etc etc...and with only less than 500 million people in the world on the internet pre-2000 I had quite an advantage as a child having access to information at my fingertips through my 56k modem. I did whatever any kid addicted to his favorite toys would do and started to learn for over 10 years about the growth of technology and A.i. Back then the dark web existed with less than 1 million people in it....did you know that?? So here is the point of me telling you this...a portion of the public was scared out of the market before it peaked and this made many people think we had just had a price correction once the market started to dump. Well most were wrong and the market kept dumping just like bitcoin did in 2018...the hype of the internet boom was over and real world use had started to take place..the market was slow...it took 4 years to crash 70% and 16 years to bloom golden apple trees for people who DIDNT GIVE UP AND FOLLOWED WHERE THE INTERNET WAS TAKING US INTO THE FUTURE!!!!! I am here to tell you we have just started playing with this technology on a larger scale.....and we are going through a very similar cycle but there are new pieces at play. Those pieces are defined into 3 simple words... Artificial. Intelligent. Design. Do you know that 50% of bitcoin holders today were not in BTC in 2016 or 2017? The majority of people who came into this market have been entering since the mini bubble of 2018. Why do I say mini? Because the Dot com bubble hit over 5-7 Trillion dollars before it truly crashed. Some have claimed as much as 10 Trillion in certain locations of the world. ..What I call bubble in crypto is simply a "test run" of how the people of this world will take to this technology. In 2016 Btc was between 500-800 dollars. If the block chain leaders of today have already got their prosperity and now are recycling price to grow it realistically...we can very well see prices as low as $1,000 because I feel most of the large capital investors who are holding their initial amount they got in with have reset that same amount at around the 1K marker so they break even on the investment that has also paid for itself for a future to grow with. Think about it....Charles Hoskinson (ADA), Vitalik Buterin (ETH), Dan Larimer (EOS), Charlie Lee (LTC), ...ALL OF THEM STARTED NEW PROJECTS TO ADVANCE THE TECHNOLOGY AND MAKE IT BACKWARDS COMPATIBLE WITH BTC!!!! So if all of them own some bitcoin still...are bullish on it...building networks to connect to it...AND developing better protocols AROUND IT LIKE A FKN SOLAR SYSTEM>>!>!>!> WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU???!?! They have to obey the rules of the leaders of the world and our government on what they decide....so they are placing their chess pieces accordingly so even if bitcoin fails.. the grand architectural design of the new systems will be in harmony on a new system that can simply "snip snip" other networks out if need be. Personally...I don't see it going anywhere near 1,000 again but I do not exclude all options...I see it slowing down a lot and stabilizing with realistic price growth based off real world use-case by the banks, governments, corp leaders, etc etc...and for you conspiracy fans...the shadow government which is where I personally think BTC came from ;) Personally I believe price will hit 1900 - 3300 zone again and we will have 3 falling valleys with a fake out descending triangle just like GOLD looked like when the greenback was no longer supporting it...it dipped below then slowly kept going up and up and never stopped climbing for over 20 years..if bitcoin is like the gold of the internet then you better get it now while supply is cheap because a million dollars today isn't much in the large scheme of things. It will become "heavy" in data...it will be "heavy" in the cost to carry it and pricey to exchange it so it can stay controlled by few with very little common folks being able to have "1 whole bitcoin." It will be like how people chase 1 million dollars today...they might very well be trying to chase 1 full bitcoin in the year 2040.... ARE YOU SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING?? These block chain leaders are playing it safe...if bitcoin fails to stay around and becomes history..it will be a piece of history worth holding because it was THIS digital asset that started the global change for the next 80 years...a plan that has been set since the stock market crash of 1987...the year I was born...what a time to bust out the baby guns and enter this chaotic world huh?? It takes 10 years to remold technology but its about to re-define the next 80...and you already see how fast technology grows.... The people who lost everything..... their pensions....their homes...their savings.....these people are the ones who have stood up to make a new design "fair" and so the world leaders have heard them because WE stopped giving a shit about their banks and loans and started using their own system against them. When you make millions of peoples lives hell and 90% of them are mentally poor...eventually they will go into survival mode and do whatever it takes to survive. You can't piss off a world of people and expect nothing will happen from the outcome when you suppress them to try and fix your own mess : / (the market crash couldn't be stopped so they have had to try and come up with a new design since then...) I am about to wrap this up and I apologies this is so long but I felt compelled to share after reviewing some old stuff today..... So think about this.... 22% of student loans fall into default...1/5th.. For many, the payments are proving unmanageable. By 2023, nearly 40 percent of borrowers are expected to default on their student loans. Over the past 20 years we had the economy stabbed by a "recession" and even I felt it at age 17 working 2 jobs.... (look at the market cycle crashes from 1982 to now....Funny patterns will begin to show and tell you the story...how ..and why.....) The kids who grew up and graduated between 2000-2007 is the generation who has had to feel the PAIN of our parents struggle to survive an economic turbulence caused by our very own governments of the world because THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO SO THEY PROTECTED THEMSELVES WITH NEW OVER-LAPPING LAWS, NEW LOANS, AND GREEDY WAYS...I don't blame them...I would have protected my family and self as well......I blame the lack of communication between the people and the movers and shakers..I fault the education system for not having the integrity to make it a point to TEACH the importance of money and how it really effects our world in trade and to survive from birth to death....the education system historically was designed to create industrial manufacturing workers...don't believe me...look it up...you will be mind blown how the system went from "teaching to supply workers to grow the world" to "teaching to make people careers and jobs" I am not saying that the education system was developed to make new world order slaves or some crap...I am saying that over the years ..lots of information has been manipulated and left out to teach as a necessity for living life. Money. Education. The way knowledge moves.... All of it is about to change and how it will effect you will be up to you. The 1987 crash not only scared us...but it scared them as well......they knew something had to change when they couldn't control the market from crashing...this is when the white paper of distributed ledger protocols started to come into shape. Yes that is right...there was a protocol design just like bitcoin prior to the age of bitcoin post-2000.. Google it..you will find it... ------------------------------------- Let me take you back some in time and what I learned as a kid and why I am so focused in the world of artificial intelligent design and why this is important to pay attention to not only as a new investment vehicle but as a whole new cycle is in our markets . It will begin starting now and begin transitioning in 2020. Most of us in our middle/young adult years will see how quickly these next 20 years grow and change and Im sure it will make all of us feel very old since some of us got to play with a nintendo and some in this realm and who could be reading this have had the pleasure of playing pac-man on an Atari.... I want you to really think big here. If you were a world leader planning for 100 years of growth for your family legacy and the families of the world for a stable growing world thats in chaos..what would you do??? You would plant the seeds today for your kids tomorrow and you would begin a rough draft of a new era before you started to write the final draft...... If you are 24 years of age or older and reading this you know damn well we have no pension plan for us. You know damn well there is no PLAN for us to retire...we have to make our own plan. I feel as time goes on the middle class is becoming more "spread" apart in order to truly have multiple ladders of wealth to play from...in a sense creating a human liquidity source of workers no matter what the outcome is in life on one side of the world or the other....so we always have a working class and a leading class. If you make the financial road longer...it will take longer for families to generate wealth without innovation...machines are 20% or more of what physical labor used to do...think about that...use your brain or work for pennies will become the next thing. We will always need engineers but you need to see how the job force changes. Some jobs will fall forever and become history and replaced by robots. Some jobs today already are at that point. It will take hundreds of years to become wealthy enough to be a leader of the world in 100 years time...mark my words...this is the only time in our world in our time at our age (if you are around my age) that will be able to have an opportunity to be on the wealthier side of the fence by simply planting your little cryptocurrency seeds across the new designed web 3.0 NOW for this to make sense you need to be taken back to the year 2000.... Take back to the year 2000 The Nasdaq index peaked early March on the 10th of the year 2000 and nearly double over the prior year. Right at the market’s peak, several of the leading high-tech companies, such as Dell and Cisco placed huge sell orders on their stocks, sparking panic selling among investors. Within a few weeks, the stock market lost 10% of its value. As investment capital began to dry up, so did the lifeblood of cash-strapped dotcom companies. Dotcom companies that had reached market capitalization in the hundreds of millions of dollars became worthless within a matter of months. By the end of 2001, a majority of publicly traded dotcom companies folded, and trillions of dollars of investment capital evaporated. Fastforward to today in 2019.... What has the stock market done since 2001 - 2019? What have our fiat currencies turned into? Toilet paper??? They are all becoming weaker and have been printed as such! A NOTE IS ALL YOU HOLD WHEN YOU HOLD PAPER MONEY. YOUR NOTE IS BECOMING WEAKER IN ITS VALUE EVERY PASSING YEAR UNTIL THEY STOP PRINTING MONEY! What has interest rates done? WHY? The housing market? PFFFTTT Dont get me started.... Im 31 years old and I will be damned if I let some old ballsacks in congress try to design my future without me being apart of it or me breathing down their neck through our weapon..... The internet of things....the internet of value... Data is the new oil... will you begin to mine oil today? Or purchase it for retail price later? My best advice for everyone in this realm is to learn your history...truly understand what block chain technology is and DLT...truly compare the protocols and don't just read to forums and reddit posts. DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE! Your world leaders and these leaders in crypto today are just like the leaders who survived the dot com bubble....... Be patient...be smart...dont chase losses...and invest what makes you HAPPY in life...for that is what truly brings you wealth. As they say..do what you love and the money truly can come abundantly when you realize that money is just a tool....do not let it control your life. Turn it into your bitch and make money work for you. Your opportunity is here...take it with a grain of salt and make yourself valuable in many avenues in life..not just crypto portfolio value...build value through multiple avenues. Keep the faucets dripping and you will always have a supply of money to go to. Supply the demand. Thats it for now. Way too long as it is! If you read this thank you for reading my story...please tell me your thoughts as I wrote this pretty scatter brained and jumped around a bit but I tried to hit some topics that are related to why our financial economy is in rambles right now..I will make a video in the future with a very good explanation of this. Overall you can find plenty of topics on the internet about the things I have said here. DYOR and you will be surprised what you will find if you keep digging deep enough....
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AschraM
Inflation Proxy StablizingDoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach often refers to the copper/gold ratio as a proxy for U.S. yields. Although this is comprised of two commodities that tend to do well in rising inflation, it can be seen as a growth proxy as well, which in turn filters into where yields are moving. Market participants often allocate to copper when growth is trending higher and, conversely, gold when growth is muted. We currently have a record net-short positioning on copper which could suggest yields may move higher.
TVC:US10YEducation
by TheMacroStrategist
Trading Overbought/Oversold readings on RSIRSI is one of the most widely followed technical indicators out there. The focus of this writeup is on understanding the overbought and oversold readings. I am not delving into the details of calculation and divergences. So what does overbought reading mean? An above-70 reading on the 14-day RSI is widely considered an overbought reading. Many people consider overbought reading as a sign of bearish reversal. That is a so wrong… An above-70 RSI only means the underlying asset’s price has rallied too fast… too soon and the momentum may slow or stall for some time. Also, the price needs to validate the overbought readings, i.e. the above-70 reading on the RSI becomes valid only if signs of buyer exhaustion appear in the form fo candlestick patterns like a hanging man, bearish hammer, bearish engulfing or outside day or simply a candle with a long upper shadow. Also, failure on the part of the bulls to push through a certain level would validate overbought reading on the RSI. A trader should take overbought reading on the RSI seriously if the market is at record highs or at multi-year highs. That said, traders should ignore overbought readings on the RSI as long as the price is showing no signs of buyer exhaustion. In fact, if prices are rising on the back of strong volumes, then I consider an overbought RSI as further evidence of trend strength. Example of reading the overbought reading on RSI Lets say a stock has rallied 10-15% in just few days and now the RSI is holding above 70. First I would check if the price is showing signs of bullish exhaustion. Lets say, there is a doji candle – a sign of buyer exhaustion (indecision after a solid rally). So what we have now is buyer exhaustion on price + an overbought reading on the RSI. In this case, I would exit my longs and check for the following day’s close. It its above the doji candle’s high and on the back of strong volumes, I would ignore RSI and go long. If the close is below doji candle’s low, the RSI gains credence and I go short with stops above the doji candle’s high or as per my risk appetite. On similar lines, oversold readings on the RSI gain credence only when the price is flashing signs of seller exhaustion in the form of doji, long-legged candle or doji candle, bullish engulfing, inverted green hammer, bullish outside reversal or repeated defense of a specific level. I hope this write up was helpful. Let me know if you want me to make a video or write up in more detail on RSI or other indicators or macros.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by OmiFX8
BRACE FOR IMPACT - BIG FLIGHTS TO SAFETYOf course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem) I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin. The smart money has already moved these markets. If you've missed, you're too late. It is a very unstable and uncertain world now. We have wars of various kinds: 1. Trade wars 2. Currency wars. 3. Cyber-wars. 4. And as of Thursday/Friday, America almost went to war with Iran. The dumb money is now long on the DJI. Yeah it might break out of 27000 but that's what the dumb money is gonna do. Last week we saw the German Bund market head into negative yield. This means that investors are willing to put their money in for an initial loss on bonds. Yield curves remain inverted in America. There is trouble ahead. Watch where the real big boys are heading. Get smart. Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial (or other advice). DYOR. This screencast is speculative. No liabilities accepted for your losses. In other words sue yourself if you take a position based on this post and lose your money.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
1
Trendline , Range & Importance of candle close price.Hello Fellow Traders, Here we would like to talk about Trendlines and how they can be used along with Horizontal support to find great entry points , both for short term scalping and swing trades , We all know about trendlines yet traders don't use it to the full potential which this tool can provide , In this article we will be talking about Trendline above price which defines current range of price action , for our convenience we call them Price Range trendline: Price range trendline can be drawn above or below price and must be pointing UP in when price going up and pointing down when price is going down . But before starting we want you to understand Closing price of candle and its importance while trading with trendlines or Moving averages or with any indicator , In trendline trading 4HR and Daily closes are highly relevant whereas shorter time frame candle close price can just be cause of market noise and we don't give much importance to them. Candle closing price is used to understand if trendline is still valid or has been breached/ invalidated , very important in both trendlines & horizontal support n resistance. Now If you see the chart , you can see trendline supporting upside movement , then we have Range Trendline & Horizontal Support , Near Range Trendline price is mostly overstretched and looking for minor pullback/retracement , knowing price range where there is high probability we can use Limit orders to scalp pips out of pair each time price reaches our Range trendline and till 4hr candle doesn't close above Trendline , Success rate of Trading with Range Trendline is high because it doesnot act as resistance but probable price zone where bullish/bearish pressure has reached its peak and need some cool down , Check our trade idea based on same principal in shorter time frame which worked out perfectly well and let us know what do you think. For more info and knowledge about using trendlines.... we are here to help community trade better .. message us.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AariTech
1
Every one needs to know this perfectly: the 6 financial assets.Hello. I noticed alot of traders new of course but also veterans do not know their basics that well. I myself, needed to get everything a little more clear in my head, there are still a few grey area's, but after making (and after you read) this idea, it will all be much more clear. The TradingView community, in october 2017 consisted of over 3 million monthly active users, and on average 3300 new users joined daily (0.1% daily growth taking the active user number). In Q4 2017 - 2018 when crypto exploded a massive wave of people joined this site (I joined in december 2017 myself), I assume most were new. Crypto now is the biggest chat on this site so we can assume there were more than 3300 daily for crypto alone when BTC accelerated after breaking $1000 $3000 and $5000. Of course there are certainly alot that just invested in crypto and now lost their money with BTC down back to 3000 & alts down 99%. So, what I am trying to say is there are alot of new people, and in particular crypto exclusive people. I think there are literally millions of people on this site that could use this. The SEC & CFTC AND senators included by the way, I am not sure they have this clearly in their minds, you know what I mean if you have been following crypto regulations and hearings the past year... And if you are a crypto exclusive trader (I feel sorry for you when crypto consolidates half the time), this might shed some light and make the other assets less scary. Before I start digging in, if you were looking for opinions on the eurodollar sorry I do not have any. It is "kind of" going nowhere. ZigZagging randomly, maybe there is a way to trade this, I do not know it. I only join trends or go agaisnt trends if the conditions are right. (1) Looking at volumes & average volatility. Ordered from biggest to smallest. Cash ==> Daily traded volume around 5 trillion $. EURUSD a little over 1 Trillion. USDJPY is slighlty under 1 trillion, then GBPUSD at around 500 billion, then 5 between 100 and 300 billion (AUDUSD 250+, USDCAD 200+, USDCNH 200-, USDCHF 200-, EURGBP 100) , two dozen between 10 and 90 billion, and then "the rest". Honestly The big Forex pairs are not correlated (EURUSD & USDJPY). Pound and Euro move quite together. It is complicated.... DXY (usd index) looks alot like EURUSD as expected... The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula: USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD-0.576 × USDJPY0.136 × GBPUSD-0.119 × USDCAD0.091 × USDSEK0.042 × USDCHF0.036. Outdated if you ask me. I do not like it very much. I should make my own us dollar index. I think I will! Typically moves about 0.5 to 1 percent a day. Fixed income ==> Daily traded volume in excess of 700 billion usd (for the US alone I think). The biggest ones are US treasury bills 10 yr and 30 yr correct me if I am wrong, I think they do volumes of about 50 billion, really not sure. I tried looking at the german euro bund but I do not really know much about it. Better stick to US30YR and US10YR. Careful they are not as safe as they seem; wide moves happen. Prices are more expensive there are very few retail traders compared to other assets. Mostly institution traders buying/selling for millions at a time. US30Y typically moves 2 to 2.5% a day. US10Y is the same. Equities ==> Nyse + Nasdaq represent a little over 1/3 of the world stock capitalisation (maybe less and less now that the bubble popped) and traders are much more attracted to US stocks than the rest of the world. I know these 2 have a combined volume of 250 billion, going to assume the total worldwode is around 500 billion. Less than Bonds in any case. The indices might be big, all I know is the e-mini S&P 500 trading volume on the CME is 150 billion usd! In total capitalization the US bond market is bigger than the US stock market and I heard their volume was bigger too, but it does not feel "bigger". And treasury bills have less volume than the e-mini. The S&P 500 typically moves 0.75 to 2% a day, it varies wildly. Different stocks have different numbers. But usually 1 to 5%. Commodities ==> 1- Precious metals. Gold Silver Platinum Palladium. Gold the biggest one, and its trading volume is of 125 billion (estimated, daily). Gold typically moves 1.5% a day. Other ones move 2-3% a day. Aaaand I just noticed palladium went above ath and is in a massive bull run since summer 2018. Gold has been going up since then too. 2- Energy. Oil (Texas Crude Light & Brend), NatGas, Heating Oil. Oil futures have a volume of 35 billion with the CME. Oil typically moves 2-3% a day, NatGas 3 to 5%, but sometimes 20% in a day as you might have heard ;) 3- Agriculture. Soybeans (5B), Corn(2B), Wheat(1B), Cotton(900M), Coffee(600M), Sugar(500M), Cocoa(300M), the rest is irrelevant. Soybean futures typically move 2% a day, Corn 2-3%, Wheat around 3%, the rest all about 2-3%. 4- Industrial metals. Copper Iron Ore Aluminum. Copper futures have a daily volume of 5 billion. I know nothing about Iron, but it is defenitly correlated to copper. Copper typically move 2-3% a day. CryptoCurrencies ==> The NEW one! Wouhoo so exciting! Well no not really, just another headache for regulators that have been trying to decide does it fall in the commodity or security category? (How about none? How about you create a new commitee crypto specific, maybe they are waiting to see if crypto is still around in 5 years). Daily traded volume in 2018 was 30 billion us dollar. 10 billion for Bitcoin, 20 billion for altcoins. Clearly the smallest asset. Could grow bigger could disappear. Would be a shame; What do we need it for thought? Internet money and a way to do crowdfunding & buy shares of a company (tokens)? If it is not a super useful innovation, we do not need it. There have been alot of great innovations, but that were not very useful or did not really improve things that much so they just vanished. This asset is "pending", it could simply disappear. Well it is not that bad, still plenty other things to trade. Probably the best asset for stinky newbs (:p). Small accounts are possible, very small, fees are low on most exchanges if you want them to be, open 247, there are no gaps, no slippage (well if you use Bitmex). Bitcoin typically moves 5% a day, but it is like with stocks it varies greatly. Ethereum moves the double of Bitcoin, and altcoins vary. Some can move ALOT on average, they are just scams and going to die thought, so whatever. Most successful alts are the results of pump and dumps. I dare you to tell me no, I was in the discords right before it started... (did not participate I never was in the mod club or tried to be). Property ==> In the US the real estate transaction volume in a year is about 400 billion $ (much lower around 2009 :}). Is there a way to trade this? Via funds indexes or something? This is just for investing. (2) Correlations *** Forex EURUSD & DXY are the same chart... EURUSD & USDJPY not correlated. Maybe a tiny bit, but really not that much. EURUSD & GBPUSD very similar charts especially recent years. AUDUSD & EURUSD not exactly the same, but the trades will be the same. Trading both is redundant. EURUSD & USDCAD sometimes more bullish sometimes more bearish, but basically the same moves. USDCNH & EURUSD. Well in between, I don't know. USDCNH & USDJPY. It is looking pretty similar here. USDJPY & USDCHF. Kind of the "safe ones". They often move together, not always. EURUSD & EURGBP. A Euro strong against the USDOLLAR does not mean it will be strong agaisnt the pound. EURUSD & EURJPY. Not that much correlation in my eyes. USDMXN & EURUSD. At times it just mirrors it. Really no personality Pesos. Then most other pairs just follow the bigger one, like when the AUD falls against the dollar, all AUD pairs fall from experience it it what I noticed. I did not check all pairs like USD versus RUB? I do not know, but I do not want to check everything and get overwhelmed. These 4 are good: EURUSD USDJPY EURGBP EURJPY they represent most of the currency market action. The rest is all a mirror of one of these 4. I will have these 4 in my watchlist & then there are about 30 important pairs with a volume of 10 billion or more I can look at, maybe I notice something, but most focus will be on the 4. Maybe if I want to short EURUSD I might notice AUDOLLAR is heavier and short that instead... 4 is good, not so much I would get overwhelmed. *** Bonds 30 YR and 10 YR treasury bills move the same as far as I know. Then there are so many. Why bother? For my part I am not trading that (yet), but I will be putting US30Y in my main watchlist & keeping an eye on it and hopefully learning more about that financial product. *** Equities There are so many stocks. Hidden gems, whatever. Not worth my time. Not a big stock expert, Almost everything follows vaguely the big indices Tech stocks are all moving the exact same way (FAANG), stocks from the same area move the same (all video game companies had the same issues they are all down 40% more or less). I do not know the different industries well, I know it follows the general market direction, I do not really know when it does and when it does not, the difference in every industry. So unless I get to know more which will take a while, I only watch a major indice, the Dow because I want to, could be the S&P same story. I cannot tell you more on exactly what the correlations are and how "close" they are sorry. *** Commodities A/ Precious metals ==> Trading gold only is enough. Or just watching it. It leads everything. B/ Energy Might as well only watch Oil and see it all as one big thing, to keep it simple. C/ Agriculture Wheat and Corn, regular carb stapple foods and Soybeans, all the same (All CME). Cocoa does not seem correlated to anything? It has some delay on the rest? Might be interesting to look at weekly chart once in a while... Cotton Coffee Sugar (all traded on ICE) look similar... Just going to have Soybean futures in my main watchlist I cannot be bothered with the rest, trying to understand the risk, the is it correlated the what if? Can still look from time to time for opportunities... D/ Industry metals ==> Copper , the rest is just copy pasta *** CryptoCurrencies There are sooo many crypto's. It's all the same story thought. Fortunately, most of these scams will die. If 10 to 100 remain it would be good. All the scams and various ponzi's have created alot of confusion with people (such as the SEC). Trust me the reason the SEC have waited and waited and waited is because there are so many different crypto's doing different things they have no idea how to categorise them. They tried starting with the biggest ones first which is what they should do but they did not produce much really... I think they are just waiting for the bubble to finish popping and most crypto's to die. The SEC wants to prevent dumb money from getting scammed and they have been putting out a fake ICO site and heading warnings, they do not want to do nothing. ===> I only watch Bitcoin . The rest is irrelevant most of the time (for trading purposes). Might change in the future. Sure I could look at other crypto's "oh Ethereum is more bullish my edge is better here, oh Litecoin has started going up early before the rest" whatever, it's just adding chaos randomness. Can't be bothered. I tried, not worth my time. (3) Conclusion I hope you enjoyed this post. I enjoyed making it. My watchlists are as follow: A main one I use all the time and look at 4 hour chart with * EURUSD USDJPY EURGBP EURJPY which covers most of all Forex * GOLD OIL SOYBEANF COPPER which covers most of all commodities * BITCOIN * US30Y * DJI A watchlist for Currencies with 30 pairs I might rarely watch from time to time looking for potential swing trades. A watchlist for Commodities and Crypto with half a dozen commodities and half a dozen crypto, same logic as the currencies watchlist. Daily chart or bigger only. A watchlist for ~12 indices and 90 of the biggest stocks in the world (mcap over 50 billion usd). Only for backtesting (for now). A watchlist with 1200 stocks I never use but might look at sporadically, for education purposes. ===> In the end, I mostly trade Bitcoin + 4 FX pairs + 4 Commodities, and am researching more FX pairs & commodities, might have some opportunities. I can be more picky with my trades if I watch more, but at the same time it adds confusion and everything. Also learning about stocks and bonds little by little. Ignoring crypto other than Bitcoin and maybe ETH for the time being. In any case, for every of the 6 assets, you are good with 4 symbols each. More gets redundant and makes it complicated. Just go 4 each and separate them clearly, make it easier ;)
Education
by MrRenev
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