Metals
Nasdaq Versus Gold - The Truth Hurts for Gold BugsI believe Gold to be the only sound money ever existed. But I have learn from my life experiences to remove my bias from my investment.
I have decided that I can't use my bias and emotions when investing, I have to look at facts and follow the facts.
And that's the reasons I have decided to have only small amount of Gold in my portfolio and overweight on equity and technology stocks.
It is easy to fall in love with any particular asset, let it be Gold, Real Estate, Bitcoin, Stocks, etc. But the market doesn't care about your feelings and your emotions.
The market will do WHATEVER it want to do.
And if someone really cares about PRESERVING their wealth, then, they ought to follow the market NOT their emotions.
This chart alone is enough to tell us a story. A story whereby Gold is just as CYCLICAL as everything else and it is NEVER A GOOD IDEA to only hold gold.
From 1980 to 2000, Nasdaq and technology stocks VASTLY outperform everything else, something that people like Peter Schiff never tells to his audience.
And yes, after Dot Com crash and bubble, Nasdaq takes a break while we had a commodity boom from 2000 to 2012 where Gold did well. But that's it. Gold did well due to commodity boom and because equities is taking break after major expansion during 80's and 90's. Nothing more.
And then, in 2013, that starts the beginning of new bull market in Nasdaq and equities. Coinciding with the rise of cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
When market moves, it moves with momentum and when it moves with momentum, it will take a lot of energy to make it stop.
We are in the 7th year of this bull market, one of the most hated bull market in US equities whereby every new all time high is being yelled as the major top and a 90% crash will come ensue.
But the data is showing otherwise. 7 years is too short for a bull market. Especially when you mix in the Industrial Revolution 4.0 into the mix.
We are yet to fully see the benefits and potential of IR 4.0. That's why semis continue to climb the wall of worry, because it keeps growing and growing and growing.
And most people are underestimating the potential growth from all of these industries and sectors, missing out on Apple on the smartphone boom, Amazon on the ecommerce boom, Microsoft on the cloud boom and so forth.
People will keep missing on these stocks until eventually majority realize that this is real, they will bought into peak and at a major top, just like 2000.
We are nowhere near the level of euphoria like 2000. So the best things is to remain invested and to remain long on tech equities.
Gold will rise as we enter into inflationary phase but Gold will just be that small position in my portfolio, nothing more, until we see the bottom of commodity and the beginning of a commodity bull market, which by that time, capital will flow mostly into commodity.
Market always move in cycle. Stop falling in love with any particular assets.
I don't care about stocks, stocks will eventually peak and by that time, I will get out, but now is not the time.
wave 3 extension 2.618 (from normally 1.618)The Most Typical Fibonacci Ratios/Multiples within Impulses:
If wave 1 is extended, expect the net of wave 2-5 to be .618 x wave 1
Wave 2 = 618 or .5 x wave 1
If wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend toward equality. A .618 relationship is next most likely.
Wave 3 = 1.618 or 2.618 x wave 1
Wave 4 = .382 x wave 3
Wave 4 (net) typically relates to its corresponding wave 2 (net) by a Fibonacci ratio.
Wave 5 = wave 1, or .618, or .382 x the net of waves 1 thru 3.
If neither wave 1 or 3 is extended, expect wave 5 to be 1.618 x the net of 1-3.
The time to complete waves 1 thru 3 = the time to complete the end of 3 to the end of 5.
Central bank calendar for 2020Here are the important dates. * The small red lines are supposed to indicate the EUR & USA central bank meeting dates.
Looks like February might be dead, with maybe a bit going on in Oceania.
May calm, maybe some UK & Oceania going on just like the end of 2019, August dead but who cares, and the rest of the year interesting especially June so just like 2019 maybe.
I have some things on the radar for January already.
I am planning my year around this calendar.
Also let's not forget the 2020 election too, this might be the most important date.
For stocks & indices of course but even for those that don't trade those or don't trade them much (like me).
Going to be an interesting year...
In the world of Currencies Gold Metals Energy which is what I do, also what will happen with the climate change hysteria is going to be interesting.
There's a large part of the population that think the world is going to end so what will they do?
They will impact politics and the economy. 10% of israel population are in a sect branch of judaism and the government does some of the thing they want, muslims... well I don't even need to explain that... 10% are salafists which is the world most powerful "cult" or "sect" with a huge impact, and in Eu & Na I guess the number is the same? 10% are deathly afraid of CO2? They will have some impact and this will definitely drive the price of Oil NatGas Copper Nickel which I have in my watchlist, as well as have some impact obviously on the economy.
And will socialism grow? Or fade out? I myself guess it will die out just like in the UK... Seriously, germans voted for Hitler but they were starving. EU & NA populations are not starving so why would they go full insane. East europe went full insane but that was their revolution, they overreacted as usual. France had their revolution in 1789 and it was followed by a period of terror, then Napoleon, then changing governments... Took what like a century to go to a clean democracy? Soviets had socialism with going back and forth between capitalism and full communism from 1920 to 1990, nothing surprising there. I doubt they will go back.
What people call "capitalism" is just the natural order of things. Like it or not everything has a price and a reward. Nothing gets magically created.
Nothing is lost, nothing is created, everything is transformed.
Well, going to be a fun year. I probably won't post much about stock indices, I am just perma long till the Dow gets to ~33k, I won't post much about Bitcoin it is so boring, there is the halving and also now is when satoshi gets his coins? Might be interesting actually.
Just going to focus on USD EUR GBP CAD AUD NZD SEK JPY CHF GOLD NATGAS USOIL COPPER NICKEL.
TRADING TIME FRAMES COVERED!Hi all,
I know i am abit late with the video feature but better late than neverrrr!
In this video i have covered the key trading time frames and the things you should be looking out for.
What would you like me to cover? leave your comments below and i will get back to everyone! :)
"private" chat with student12.19.19 Student senses Gold will break higher...and this may be true. I give my point of view...not to counter the student, but to add a slightly different perspective. Also (this is to my student...so don't read this ) when you are serious about a trade ( real or paper ) send me trade location, the stop, and the target...so we can work with it.
GOLD, How do you like it?!))Look at the local lines on the chart!
Each of them should be considered separately.
It can be an intraday trading strategy:
after a few taps on one side, touch the other and make some move.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analyze.
Write your comments and questions here!
Thanks for your support!
How I trade? My Trading Portfolio!I made a poll asking traders this simple question: "Let’s imagine - you have 10 000USD capital for trading or investing. How will you manage this sum?"
with the options like:
- I will trade in Forex
- I will trade/invest in Stocks
- I will trade/invest in Crypto
- I will split my capital among different markets!
I’m very glad that 33% of traders picked the 4th option. They understand that trading in different markets provides more opportunities and lower risks. Of course, it is possible to trade only in Forex, Stock, or Crypto markets. But the diversification plays a very important role in trading.
I would like to share with you my portfolio and shortly explain how I trade in different markets.
I use auto trading (trading robots and copy trading) for Forex. This market is very good for auto trading because of good and cheap infrastructure. I started from Forex, but now I don't like it too much. It is not so good and simple for manual trading. It takes a lot of time and effort to search trading opportunities and monitor markets which are available 24/5. Robots and copy trading allow me to get trades in auto mode, and I don't need to spend time for active trading. Some interesting trades for the long run, yes. But day trading in Forex - no, thank you!
I invest in Crypto. This market was too good for active trading in 2017. It became not so good for trading in 2018. In 2019 it provided amazing buy opportunities for long term trading. Crypo is also a rather manipulated market, and I would like to use high timeframes to avoid weird movements.
Stocks trading is my love. I tried before trading stocks with CFD. But the real stock trading it is really another planet. I started trading in the real stock exchanges several months ago, and I think it is the best place for manual trading. There are thousands of markets where you can trade using different trading strategies, approaches, and styles.
Maybe you think it takes too much time for trading in several markets.
If you plan your work properly, if you combine different tools and trading styles - it is possible to trade in different markets even if you are busy.
I have a lot of work, but in spite of this fact, I could create a portfolio based on different markets and involve all tools which help me to manage this portfolio in a simple way.
Such an approach allows me to make my trading stable, and I don't risk too much. If the crypto market becomes boring, I don't care. I have trading opportunities in Forex and Stocks. If in Forex I face with drawdowns, I also don't care. I have crypto with good trades for the long run and Stocks where I use medium and long term trading.
I have the variant of the portfolio, which provides me everything I need for successful and stable trading in the long run.
And what about you? Please share your variant of portfolios in comments below this post.
Gold DXY12.3.19 11am More happened on Gold from previous video today. At this point look for breakout failures in gold and the DXY. If you were a buyer, think about what knowledgeable sellers might be thinking...and vice versa when you are a Seller....and then adjust your target, your position accordingly.
GoldMore talk on price dynamics with gold. I think it is a decent, worthwhile video, but I ran out of time and the "probability discussion " is incomplete because the probability that this market will go higher and above that range box because of those two larger range green bars. I will elaborate on this in other videos. The point will become clear...which is that you can reliably judge probability in real time...with "enough" accuracy and not have to be a rocket scientist. Do the best you can with this...more to come later.
What Gold Bugs Will Not Admit and Will Never Tell You.Gold up 800% in 2 years, and then falls 70% and stay sideway doing nothing for the next 20 years.
Gold bugs will not consider as pump and dump because Gold is "sound money".
That's what happen when your life revolve around you selling gold to make money.
In this case, there is nothing different between gold and stocks and other assets, all subject to manipulations.
The Difference between Failure and SuccessHave you ever asked yourself: "Why some traders fail while others make money? "
In this post, I would like to share with you my ideas, which will explain the difference between successful traders and those who lose money all the time and provide the answer to this question.
There is a well-known fact that in the financial markets, about 90% of traders fail, and 10% of traders at breakeven and profitable.
I have been trading for 12 years, and in the beginning, I made tons of mistakes. I was in a group of 90% "successful" traders. I tried to understand where I was wrong and what should I do to get out of such a situation. I have spent years searching for my own path in the financial markets. And one day I realized - there are no secrets in trading. There are no unique and super-profitable trading strategies or tools which will make money for you all the time. The attempt to find something like "Money Button"- it is the path that leads to nothing. You spend your time trying to find something super-profitable, something which will give you only profitable trades, something which will make you rich very quickly. But there are no such tools or trading strategies.
I understood that for becoming a successful trader, I had to change my approach and focus on really important things. What are they?
You should understand as quickly as possible what your goals in trading are? If you like trading as a game, ok - no problem. Play with money but forget about a stable and profitable income. If you really want to become a successful trader and get financial freedom, you must manage trading as a business. You must work and work hard sometimes in order to reach your goals.
You must combine the most important elements of profitable trading, such as:
- Knowledge probably is one of the most important elements of any profitable trading. Without knowledge, it is impossible to become successful in any field. The same goes about trading. It does not mean that you have to learn the whole theory about Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis. It is possible to pick an interesting direction and develop yourself in this direction. Do you like technical tools like line, levels? No problem - learn as much as possible about trading based on these tools. Do you like indicators? No problem. Do the same. Add the knowledge about your favorite trading tools to knowledge about money management and trading psychology, and you will get a powerful combination. Doing it, you will make a huge step forward to your goals - profitable trading and financial freedom.
- Experience is another important part of profitable trading. You must collect your trading experience step by step because it will help you to avoid mistakes and improve your trading. To become more and more experienced trader, you will know better what you can do and what you must not do. Experience, in combination with knowledge, makes a solid base for your successful trading.
- And one more important element which you must have if you want to become a successful trader - it is discipline . You can have the perfect knowledge and amazing experience in trading. You can use the perfect trading strategies. But if you don't have the discipline to follow your trading plan, you will fail. It is just the question of time.
If you get these three key elements, you will make the huge step forward and move to profitable trading as close as possible. The problem is - not many novice traders want to put efforts into getting knowledge and experience. They prefer to follow their dreams about "Money Button" and search for ways which will make them rich very quickly without efforts. There are no such tools or ways.
If you want to become successful, you must work hard to make your dreams come true. The difference between 10% of successful traders and 90% failers is in the efforts they put in reaching their goals.
You want to know "Why some traders fail while others make money? " and the answer is very simple. Successful traders worked hard to become successful traders. Failers want to become rich do nothing for this.
Think about yourself and your trading. Do you want to become one of the successful traders and get financial freedom? If yes, what do you do to reach your goals?
P.S. I know that Tutorials does not have the value on TradingView. But I think we must change this situation. I will be grateful if you support my post by your LIKEs and comments! I don't buy views and likes and that's why your feedback is very important for me! Thank you.