The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs.
In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance.
Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature.
This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line.
In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below;
And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post.
Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves.
Here's a post on Elliott basics;
This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short;
Here's also a post covering the Dow basics;
You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend"
And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages)
We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Metals
Are you a champion hopper? 😬🙈Morning traders.
I started yesterday morning by posting an idea with the phrase below.
'Lets start the morning with everyone's favourite! Gold'
Well I'm kinda doing the same again this morning but this time it so we can all have some more food for thought at the breakfast table instead!
Now here me out, I have drawn the two graphs in this mornings idea on the same gold H1 strategy chart I shared yesterdays idea from.
The comment section was a good mix of feedback, some miffed at the stop out possibly and others very realistic in the reality that stop losses occur in trading.
For this strategy yesterdays stop loss means we now have 5 losses in a row. But I wont be hopping off to another method or style either.
90% of traders get spooked at the first sign of a losing run and jump to the next strategy.
Why will I stick with this strategy for gold on H1? Because of probability being factored in from the back tested data available.
Hand on heart how many people out there actually back test a strategy?
You can't plan for probability in your risk management if you have no data for your strategy.
Transparency when sharing ideas has always been key for me and strategy test data is always included in my ideas just as the H1 gold data is at the bottom of this idea.
This leads me back on to the graph drawings in this idea.
The one on the left is the last two weeks of data for this strategy the one on the right is the last two years! Growing capital takes time.
Losing runs are part of trading the growing capital part comes from trading a strategy with a proven edge.
If you have a proven system why hop on to another one?
I'll end this idea with a great quote from Steve Burns.
'10% of successful trading is creating a system with an edge. The other 90% is following it'
Enjoy your day traders.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
Thank you.
Darren
Missed gold opportunity. Good time for educating.This was an ideal occasion for order blocks. This one would have netted some good profit and limited risk. This isn't how I trade ordinarily. I don't often take trades off the 240 or higher just because I almost never see an order block within my risk parameters. I usually only use the higher time frames to chart the landscape, however, the idea of successfully trading this way is ultimately enticing enough for me to keep at it.
Emotional Analysis I have posted recently on Wyckoff, Elliott cycled, Gann education and covered psychology.
The Thing is - as a long time trader, you often see new comers and the assumption is more indicators, more stuff = better results. Take a step back and view this from 30,000 feet. You looking at finding an edge, an edge can be as simple as risk management and positioning yourself with a great risk to reward system.
The problem is, if there was an algo or one indicator that could make you rich. The world would quickly run out of doctors and postmen.
What Elliott, W.D.Gann, Wyckoff, Dow and others clearly understood - was not the technical count on the chart, or if this is a UTAD or a spring event. What they appreciated was human nature - psychology.
I wrote this post to show how the mindset fits into the chart - When everyone started posting the "Wall Street, cheat sheet" and asking - Where are we? I would respond, depending on where you bought or sold. It's not a group thing. Unless you refer to sentiment - which is another topic again.
The issue is - everyone is looking to have their hand held. Indicators can be useful of course. But you cannot depend, rely or only take buy and sell signals.
Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you.
Benjamin Franklin
==================================================================================================================================
So whilst people assume The Elliott's and the Gann's where the titans of technical. There's a deeper skill they tapped into. Emotional analysis. When studying Elliott, you can walk through a certain journey of why the price moves up & pulls back. Why it rapidly grows in wave 3 and why the 4th becomes messy. Elliott knew what drove these moves & how the retail traders follow on like sheep.
click link for full article
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wyckoff and Dow - this is not a lesson on the technical side. It's an eye opener.
Wyckoff could make a schematic of the logic and emotions inside the chart and simply plotted it. Dow, simplified it into 6 market tenets. But either way they knew more about the market psychology than they did the chart.
If you are looking to trade alt coins - you need to understand the project, the team & just like investing in a stock. Get a feel for the company.
This last week, I have seen social media posts about "this guy lost this, that or the other" All blaming and pointing fingers at Musk - the truth is if you need to follow a celebrity for stock picking. Chose another sport. Doctors, lawyers, accountants and many professions take many years just to qualify - why is crypto trading any different?
Professional traders know this - and currently it's like having penguins in the water for the first time, the pro's are the sharks.
PSYCHOLOGY This is all it boils down to.
We assume big brother is watching, we assume stocks, crypto etc all being manipulated. There's often talk about FOMO & FUD. Wyckoff knew this as the "Composite man"
Truth is - retail do it to themselves 90% of the time, trying to catch tops and bottoms. Not learning market phases or cycles and then blaming everyone else for their mistakes. Everyone wants to strike it rich, one trade and millions. Seems to be the mentality. It needs time & proper risk management.
====================================================================================================================================
If you can take a step back and see the market with "emotional vision" switched on, you will see why Elliott & Wyckoff are applicable today - Humans don't change, the psychology and mindset is still the same. Market manipulation is strong and real - it's just not what you think.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
XAUUSD - How I caught 580 pips on Gold almost zero Drawdown💰💰Hello Traders😃
I have decided to make this educational post on a trade I took on the 5th of may which took profit after NFP✅
I believe there is a struggling trader who may be having difficulties putting it all together and creating a simple trading plan.
The first thing to remember is that trading is probabilities so we try to get as many reasons as possible in our favor before placing any single trade
If you see most of my ideas I highlight if a trade is medium probability or high probability and it’s mostly backed by these factors,
The more factors in my favor, the higher the probability ⚜️
In this trade I simply used these 5 reasons to get on this trade and all criteria was met perfectly.✊🏽
You don’t need a magic indicator or a lot of lines on your chart to be profitable
Remember simplicity is the key 🔑
Just these 5 factors helped me to secure 580 pips on a single trade with a healthy risk to reward too.😊
I caught a similar trade on the 15th of April which I’ve linked below and you can see the factors above
Keep things simple and repeatable♻️
God bless you😊
I wish you all a profitable trading career
Slick⚜️
Stochastic OscillatorA stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator.
Trading Strategy:
✔ Recognise the trend:
👉 In a trendy market only open position in the direction of trend.
👉In a range market you can use both buy and sell signals.
✔ Upper band and lower band indicating different things in different market conditions:
👉In a trendy market upper and lower bands show the momentum in the market for example in an uptrend if the indicator is above 80 it means that buyers have the momentum.
👉In a range market, however upper and lower bands showing the overbought and over-sold areas. So, we may go long if we see oversold in a range market and go short if we see a over-bought situation.
✔ Divergence is another important strategy to adopt when using stochastic indicator as a divergence may indicate a trend reversal.
Basic understanding of Candlestick- and Chart-PatternsHello everyone, first of all - thank you for the positive respond to my previous video. Now that we know what a trend is made of, we want to point out the difference between Candle-Stick patterns and Chart-Patterns. Feel free to check out the previous episode below. In the next Video we are going to discuss the basic indicators you should look at for trading a trend.
Please give me some feedback on what i can improve.
Cheers,
Ares
The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVEElliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks.
To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool.
The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it.
Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker.
Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure.
Major rule
Wave 2;
If you can identify a wave 2 but it is less than 50% of wave 1 - be careful as it could create a double bottom (in an uptrend) and dip a little lower before moving up.
with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3.
Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2.
Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup...
We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%)
Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on.
It would be great to get some additional comments from traders who use Elliott every day, even from new traders only now getting into Elliott waves. Any additional tips or trips from the pro's for the newer traders?
If you are new to Elliott waves - see the related post below for the basic concept.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)RSI = Relative Strength Index
Is fluctuates between 0 and 100
• A momentum Oscillator
• Increasing RSI when: Average gains are greater than average losses = Bullish
• Decreasing RSI when: Average gains are less than average losses = Bearish
How to use:
1. Trend recognition: trading in the direction of the trend
1.1 Above 50: Uptrend
1.2 Below 50: Downtrend
2 Overbought and oversold entry signals.
2.1 In an uptrend look for oversold areas and open a long trade after the pullback above 30.
2.2 In a downtrend look for overbought areas and open a short trade after the pullback below 70.
BUYING THE DIPS Made SimpleBuying dips can be tricky, the issue is knowing if it's an actual dip or a full trend reversal. I used to think buying at a lower price to double down on an investment going the wrong way was a good idea. However, after reading a book called the Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther - the penny actually dropped. In essence, profit is profit. It does not have to be made from a stock or instrument that you are currently losing. Know when to run, when to cut losses and when to stick with it. Unfortunately by the time you understand true hedging techniques, you will be too late.
Kenny Rogers said it best - "You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run"
I highly recommend both the Zurich Axioms book and a listen to Kenny Rogers - The Gambler.
The logic behind buying the dips
🍒 Buying the dips refers to going long an asset or security after its price has experienced a short-term decline, in repeated fashion.
🍒 Buying the dips can be profitable in long-term uptrends, but unprofitable or tougher during secular downtrends.
🍒 Dip buying can lower one's average cost of owning a position, but the risk and reward of dip-buying should be constantly evaluated.
Simple Ideas for buying dips
Use an arsenal of tools to help you spot opportunities.
You will see in this image RSI and MACD have different ideas - there is no wrong or right, it's up to you to work on the things that work for you. However, you don't want tools that either do more or less the same thing or conflict. So as per the first image - using a moving average for (up or downtrend) this could be a larger period such as a 200.
Envelopes
Utilizing envelopes of sorts will help visualize channels - this could be tools such as Bollinger Bands or Regression channels. Much like Moving averages - you won't need both and there are thousands of tools I have not used. So you need to experiment with something that you like or suits your needs and style.
Like all trading strategies, buying the dips does not guarantee profits. An asset can drop for many reasons, including changes to its underlying value. Just because the price is cheaper than before doesn't necessarily mean the asset represents good value.
Trend lines can be very subjective and educators and mentors teach them in a million different ways. They can be used, but again - back test and find what works for you.
- you can see the difference between a simple trend line and conflict with Bollinger; this is what causes doubt. The subjective trendline says one thing and the calculated/measured tool says another. Which do you follow?
The problem is that the average investor has very little ability to distinguish between a temporary drop in price and a warning signal that prices are about to go much lower. While there may be unrecognized intrinsic value, buying additional shares simply to lower an average cost of ownership may not be a good reason to increase the percentage of the investor's portfolio exposed to the price action of that one stock. (Investopedia)
🎲 If trading stocks there are other tools available that are not accessible in trading currencies or other instruments - things like EBITDA or P&L sheets to give further confirmation of continuation in the trend.
ISSUES
As many new traders don't yet understand the losses are part and parcel of trading, seeing your account in red plays on the human emotions (we have all been there) and this makes us do crazy things - doubling down on trades, adding more money to avoid margin calls, buying into a losing trade again and again.
I wrote an idea recently on how the mindset is represented on a chart.(click for post)
Simplicity
You can use simple price action to spot key levels - over the years one thing I have found is levels such as Order Blocks and imbalances. Plenty of info online for this - no need to go into here, save for another post,
Then when combined with regression channels you can start to paint "expected" levels of interest.
Just to show an example I have added EMA, Bollinger, Hand drawn regression and an imbalance level.
🔢 Elliott Wave Theory 🔠
Another awesome tool for finding directional bias - If combined with other techniques, indicators and tools, this can be mighty powerful as a whole.
A simple explanation of Elliott wave from another previous post (click for post) -
In Summary - you need a belief and a reason that you assume the stock is going higher. It does not matter if it's SPX, Bitcoin or Apple. Secondary you need a directional bias confirmation such as a 200 EMA. I would say to include an envelope (channel) of some description, Something to help you confirm the trend (Elliott) for example. And then a trigger, this could be a candlestick formation, an RSI or MACD overbought/sold signal. Something that suits you and your style.
I hope this helps. Be great to get other ideas, comments or strategies from others below!
Have a great weekend!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
5 Ways To Enhance Your Trading Psychology (Tips)Welcome to mindset Monday, where I will share something trading psychology-related.
In this post, I will be breaking down 5 things that have helped my trading psychology over the years. Trading is not only a game of strategy, but there is a level of self-awareness involved as well. The 5 things that have helped me are basic brainwave science, limiting social media, diet, letting go, and having a trading ritual. Let’s discuss them further.
1. Your Brainwaves & Binaural Beats
Did you know? When you wake up your brain is in what’s called “Alpha” state? Believe it or not this is actually not ideal for trading. When your brain is in Alpha state, it is actually in a more relaxed mode, Alpha is typically a state someone is in when they meditate or are about to fall asleep. It takes the average person 30-60 minutes after they wake up to transition out of Alpha and into the “Beta” state. Beta waves are what your brain is in when it feels “on.” When you are doing homework, working out, or even at a work, your brain is in Beta. How does this relate to trading? Well, back when I was obsessed with charts (in a dangerous way) I would wake up and just hop on the chart and try to trade. I would literally hop out of bed and look at my laptop. I now allow myself one full hour to transition into Beta before I begin trading, this allows me to operate at full capacity and stay sharp and alert. I also use an app on my phone called binaural beats. The app will actually play Beta waves through headphones, and while your listening to it will help your brain switch into it faster. I recommend looking into binaural beats apps, a quick google search will explain more to you. In trading, it’s important to find as many ways as possible to stay mentally sharp. This is one I use.
2. Limit Social Media
I’ve seen it and I’m sure you have, the people on Instagram, Facebook, and other platforms flashing pictures of how many pips they are catching and how they are scaling accounts by 5000% in 8 days. That’s great and all, but this could potentially DESTROY you when you sit down and look at the charts. As humans, we are always comparing ourselves to other people, and when we see someone else doing better we either get down on ourselves, get inspired, or think that we need to do that too, or we aren’t performing up to par. Trading is unlike anything out there. You aren’t competing with anyone, it’s about you and the chart, your mind needs to be clear to tap into your zone. The issue with social media is people get googly-eyed at money and the lavish life but trading is not about that, it’s simply about building habits, when you take your mind off of your execution and systems and you start thinking you need to scale up quicker, you are going to be trading simply off emotion and probably make mistakes. Silencing my social media from flashy traders was one of the best decisions I have ever made.
3. Your Diet
What you put into your body can affect your mind greatly. If you eat more whole foods, and get some exercise regularly these actions lead to a good feeling. Your brain will release more serotonin, this will help increase your mood. When you feel good about yourself. You usually have more confidence, and when you have more confidence, that is going to come through in your trading and your life, you’ll feel more confident in your intuition and decisiveness, and as traders, all we do every day is make decisions!
4. Let Go
Let go of everything, let go of yesterday’s bad trade, let go of an argument you had with a loved one, try and let go of any stress you may feel. Meditate for 15 minutes if you need to. Beat the crap out of a pillow. Release that energy because if you don’t you may exert it onto the chart. Every trade is a brand new trade, the market doesn’t care about your problems, it will tick on with or without us. I have tried yelling at EURUSD when it stops me out, and I found that I never get a response from my computer screen. If you’re having a bad day, just step away and get a fresh start tomorrow.
5. Consistent Ritual
Man, I can’t emphasize this enough, when you have a strategy, the name of the game just becomes execution really. You need to train your brain/subconscious to simply repeat your strategy over and over. In my opinion, the best way to do this is to trade from the same location. If you trade at home, do it in the same spot every time. Do something that puts your brain into “trading mode,” for me, it is making a cup of tea. I wake up, eat food, and once that cup of tea gets made, I started thinking “it’s game time.” Did you know that Tom Brady takes a nap two hours before every game? This is an example of his ritual, yours can be anything you want, affirmations, visualizing, anything you feel you can do before sitting down that will trigger your “trader state of mind.”
I’m not a psychologist, but I hope this article gave you value, or maybe just gave you a break from reading posts about charts and setups. Just sharing my experiences.
Let’s Elevate,
Gio
P.S. Every week I share a forex outlook, educational content and trade ideas, right here on tradingview. Make sure to follow so you don’t miss them!
Inflation Coming? Gold About to Enter Bear Market! $1690 is critical for gold to hold. Should it close below that level (marked by the Red Indicator line), we will think of shorting gold.
---
How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
Be sure to hit that Follow button! Please find me on social networks via the link on my profile page for more ideas from @MasterCharts!
Trading can be lonely... What do you think...???Although not exactly education - I thought it would be different to ask rather than just post.
As a trader of 21 years, I have gone through various ups and downs. Emotions, stress, pain and success. I thought it would be interesting to ask the question, it doesn't matter if you have traded 40 years, started due to Covid or been learning.
The only competition in trading is with yourself! (and of course your emotions)
With global lockdowns, it's possible trading has been even more singular than usual. So I am asking if you want to share your stories, what you like & dislike about trading. Strategies, mentors, tips you might have learned. Even why and when you started!
Why do you trade? What do you want from trading? are you getting it? what's missing? what's working?
Hope you are all having a good weekend!
Post comments/stories below.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Support and Resistance, A way to draw a horizontal line !Support and Resistance, A way to draw a horizontal line !
Support, S and Resistance, R
1. Definition
1.1. Support is a zone where price moves up.
1.2. Resistance is a zone where price moves down.
- Support and Resistance can interchange when that zone is overcome by price
2. Support and Resistance levels
2.1. Horizontal line
2.2. Trendline
2.3. Moving averages
2.4. A Fibonancci level that you often use (Fibo 61.8)
2.5. A ratio of pattern AB=CD , or a Fibo derived from Harmonic pattern
….
Support and Resistance level are mostly depending on the trading skills and experiences of individuals
You and me would discuss a way to draw a horizinteal line
- S1: Change the chart to Line chart (because I prefer Closed price)
- S2: Choose zones where price is mostly reacting to that zone, then draw a horizontal line at those zones
- S3: Change back chart to candle chart of bar chart and adjust the horizontal line to make it look approriate
Just only 3 steps for us to draw a support/resistance line
o Attention:
- I emphasis that Support/Resistance is a zone, not a line. We usually based on historical data to plot the horizontal support/resistance zone. There fore, the close of candle or the shadow of it getting over that zone are quite common
- Because we base on historical data to plot it, so it doesn't have significant value in some specific cases. Not every time that price approaches that zone and bounce back. And not all the bouncing back case meet our expectation.
- All should depend on the surrounding theme of market, we have to look careful on specific cases to consider applying the Support/Resistance zone logically.
- All market are freely traded so there is always a chance to form a brand new Support/Resistance .
Good luck !
" INTRA-DAY PATTERNES " To Get 50-100 Pips Daily Hi Pro Trader's .. Hope You Be Fine ♥️
Today We Have New Education Lesson .. About INTRA-DAY PATTERNES
1- Ascending Triangle
2- Descending Triangle
3- Channel
4- Trends On 5 Minutes Frame
If you follow Those Pattern You Will Get Daily 50-100 Pips ✔️
Best Pairs : GBPUSD / EURAUD / EURNZD / Gold / Dawjones
Be Safe - Trade Safe ✔️✔️
Should you buy bitcoin or gold?Gold and bitcoin are two assets that have a lot of die-hard “ true believers ,” people for whom the asset class seems like essential investments. They also each have severe detractors who argue that one or the other is not a good investment at all.
Does the rapid rise in the bitcoin price and the slide in the gold price over the past several months indicate that bitcoin is sapping demand from gold? The short answer is no, because the performance of gold makes sense without reference to bitcoin. A longer answer requires discussing the major differences between gold and bitcoin.
It seems like a perfect time for crypto traders to say “I told you so” and pour more money into the most popular cryptocurrency, celebrating its triumph. Bitcoin has started 2021 with a new all-time high above $34,000 (£24,850, €27,724) and analysts remain bullish about the cryptocurrency’s strong performance in the next 12 months and beyond.
Bitcoin has tripled in value during 2020, showing steady growth even when the stock market was severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. With the US dollar weakening, Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies continue gaining more attention as traditional investors are looking to diversify their portfolio and to get better return on investments.
Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption is also supported by the growing interest of the institutional investors. Payment giant PayPal (PYPL) has already embraced Bitcoin. JPMorgan analysts share this view, saying that the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors has only just begun and they added that the price of gold would suffer because of this in the coming years.
In 2020, the price of gold has jumped over 30 percent from $1,517 per ounce on January 3, 2020 to over $2,000 per ounce on August 6, 2020. The spike in the price of gold isn’t yet at the level reached in the 2017 Bitcoin boom when the price of one Bitcoin rose from $999 on January 1, 2017 to $3,270 on August 6, 2017, an increase of over 300 percent. The demand for gold in 2020 is driven in part by investors seeking a perceived safe harbor from uncertainties in traditional asset classes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and, in part, by speculation. But similar to the Bitcoin bubble, much of the recent demand for gold as an investment comes from retail investors.
But bitcoin has been called blockchain gold, which begs the question — how similar are they as an investment?
Both are considered safe-haven assets
Gold will always be a safe haven for investors. We can say the same thing about Bitcoin. As the oldest and most well-known cryptocurrency there is, Bitcoin has been somewhat of an ever-present and durable investment. Bitcoin has recently become something that investors flock to in a time of financial distress.
Both have a limited supply
There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in circulation, that much we know for sure. This makes Bitcoin a limited digital asset, as after the 21 million are mined (predicted to be in 2140), there will never be more Bitcoin released, this makes it similar to gold in some ways.
Although gold may not run out as quickly as Bitcoin, studies have shown that gold production may be declining and may become economically unsustainable by the year 2050. This is due to the fact that humans have extracted all of the “easy gold” therefore, we have to dig deeper into the earth to retrieve the nuggets. This also means that gold is also a limited asset.
Both are speculative investments
A speculative investment is when the asset in question has a high degree of risk where profit depends a lot on the price fluctuations of the market. Bitcoin, with its famous volatility, can definitely be categorized as a speculative investment. Gold isn’t as well-known for being as volatile as Bitcoin, but it is still considered a speculative investment as investors buy with the hopes of holding it until significant gains can be made.
comparing the two
There are far more differences than similarities between these two assets. It is somewhat strange how they are lumped together when one looks closely at the details.
For hundreds of years, gold has dominated the safe-haven asset arena, while bitcoin was launched just over a decade ago and has only achieved widespread recognition in the last few years. Below, we'll compare these two investment options head-to-head:
Transparency, Safety, Legality
Gold’s established system for trading, weighing and tracking is pristine. It’s very hard to steal it, to pass off fake gold, or to otherwise corrupt the metal. Bitcoin is also difficult to corrupt, thanks to its encrypted, decentralized system and complicated algorithms, but the infrastructure to ensure its safety is not yet in place.
Rarity
Both gold and bitcoin are rare resources. The halving of Bitcoin's mining reward ensures that all 21 million Bitcoin will be out in circulation by the year 2140. While we know that there is only 21 million bitcoin that exist, It is unknown when all the world's gold will be mined from the earth. There is also speculation that gold can be mined from asteroids, and there are even some companies looking to do this in the future.
Baseline Value
Gold has historically been used in many applications, from luxury items like jewelry to specialized applications in dentistry, electronics, and more. In addition to ushering in a new focus on blockchain technology, bitcoin itself has tremendous baseline value as well. Billions of people around the world lack access to banking infrastructure and traditional means of finance like credit. With bitcoin, these individuals can send value across the globe for close to no fee. Bitcoin's true potential as a means of banking for those without access to traditional banks has perhaps yet to be fully developed.
Liquidity
Both gold and bitcoin have very liquid markets where fiat money can be exchanged for them.
Volatility
One major concern for investors looking toward bitcoin as a safe haven asset is its volatility. One need look only to the price history of bitcoin in the last two years for evidence. At its highest point, around the beginning of 2018, bitcoin reached a price of about $20,000 per coin. About a year later, the price of one bitcoin hovered around $4,000. It has since recovered a portion of those losses, but is nowhere near its one-time high price point.
Besides overall volatility, bitcoin has historically proven itself to be subject to market whims and news. Particularly as the cryptocurrency boom swept up a number of digital currencies into record-high prices around the end of 2017, news from the digital currency sphere could prompt investors to make quick decisions, sending the price of bitcoin upward or downward quickly. This volatility is not inherent to gold for reasons mentioned above, making it perhaps a safer asset.
In recent years, a number of alternative cryptocurrencies have launched which aim to provide more stability than bitcoin. Tether, for instance, is one of these so-called "stable coins." Tether is linked with the U.S. dollar in much the same way that gold was prior to the 1970s. Investors looking for less volatility than bitcoin may wish to actually look elsewhere in the digital currency space for safe havens.
Gold’s history spans back over ten thousand years and across the globe, while bitcoin has existed for a little more than a decade. The former is a physical object that can be worked into many shapes and sizes, whereas bitcoin only exists in the digital realm.
The key advantage of bitcoin over gold
Gold is much less practical for day-to-day use than bitcoin. The latter may have its flaws, but at least in theory, it allows for near-instant digital micro-transactions without a centralized bank in the middle.
One cannot typically buy a cup of coffee with physical gold. There are some workarounds such as debit cards that payout from a physical gold stash held by a third party, but these are edge cases. The core point of bitcoin is to allow for a new kind of transaction, nearly instant and frictionless, which is essentially opposite the nature of gold.
The worst case scenarios for gold and bitcoin investors
What is the worst case for investors in each asset class? Gold has an interesting possible worst-case scenario: Asteroid mining.
Some people believe that the current wave of space entrepreneurship from Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin could lead to asteroid mining that will bring substantial additional amounts of gold into the earth’s marketplace. This could theoretically increase the supply of gold, no alchemy needed, and thus lower the price of gold, hurting investors.
It may sound like science fiction, but one may need to really consider the future impact of space exploration on gold assets. For anybody thinking about investing in large amounts of gold and passing it down to their grandchildren, this could be a real problem.
For bitcoin, the worst case is more immediate: The system could simply fail. This could happen through market pressure if the optimists are wrong and the economic system collapses as a bubble like the famous Tulip Mania of the 1600s. It could also result from some unforeseen technical glitch or attack vector being discovered and ruining the security of the system.
The simplest way that bitcoin could fail would be through a massive disruption of the internet. If a solar event knocked out all of the computers in the world, bitcoin’s transaction history would simply vanish.
Ethereum founder, Vitalik Buterin warned in tweets that cryptocurrencies are “still a new and hyper-volatile asset class, and could drop to near-zero at any time”. Gold will always have the advantage of having intrinsic and traditional value.
On a general note both are good investments depending on your risk appetite.