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✨ The Dejavu Effect ✨What is Dejavu? Dejavu is a term used to describe a feeling that one has lived through the present situation before. How does this tie in with the markets? Technical analysis is based on patterns repeating itself over and over again. Technical analysts believe past trading activity and price action can be valuable indicators to future price movement. How can we prepare ourselves? Some of the ways we can prepare ourselves is by doing the following: - Learning patterns that reoccur over and over again such as bull flags, wedges etc. - Identifying candlestick formations and understand what they mean e.g. shooting star candles means there’s a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish - Learning to identify structure levels where price can react in the future - Understanding fibonacci and learning how to use it effectively. [Once we’ve identified a possible market dejavu moment, what next? Following identification, the next step is confirming whether this is in fact a similar move to historic price movements. The types of confirmations that can be used are the following: - Trendline breakout - Fibonacci rejection - Lower timeframe patterns - Moving average strategies __________________________________________________ EURUSD - The Dejavu Effect 1. Bullish Correction. We identified a falling wedge which resulted in price moving higher. 2. Bear Correction. The bullish move was short lived with a bearish correction which resulted in… 3. Three Wave Falling Wedge. This falling wedge pushed price up to the double top region. 4. Ascending Correction. The move up to the double top could be monitored using an ascending trend line to monitor the correction. 5. Minor drop. Once price broke down, we had a minor drop. 6. Major drop. After another small correction we had a major drop. Notice how we didn’t specify whether we were talking about the Blue phase or Red red phase… Dejavu.
Education
by WicktatorFX
18
How do you trade with Correlation?How do you trade with Correlation? You can trade on forex pair correlations by identifying which currency pairs have a positive or negative correlation to each other. I have identified above the 3 main correlation pairs which correlate best with each other. In the conventional sense, you would open two of the same positions if the correlation was positive, or two opposing positions if the correlation was negative, for example when OIL increases in value, the Canadian Dollar tends to increase in value. This is because Canada is among the top 5 oil producing and exporting countries making them directly correlate. CHF & GOLD Correlation Both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and physical gold have acted as reserve 'currencies' thereby establishing a relationship between the gold price and Swiss Franc . Despite some differences, the Swiss Franc and the gold price are correlated and the similarities shared by the two can be clearly identified. This the Swiss National Bank has a huge amount of Gold Reserves and is one of the largest possessors of gold reserves worldwide. This also gives the Swiss Franc direct correlation with gold as the government passed a legislation that the Swiss Franc must be backed by gold . Why is it important Correlation is important when trading your strategy as you can manipulate the market and gain more confluences to confirm your entries. For example if you are focusing on the Canadian Dollar and can see a bullish trend and an entry point, OIL must also be bullish due to the correlation and you can confirm your analogy as you have analysed 2 correlating pairs which are both bullish .
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Pips-Collector
Without this, you will not become a profitable trader Yes, this is risk management. Without proper risk management, your trading strategy based on levels, indicators, patterns, etc.will not make any sense. Any trading strategy should be supported by strict risk management, where the maximum allowable losses per transaction and the risk ratio are observed:the profit is always more than 1/2. You don't have to be right in every trade. It's just that your profit in successful transactions should be greater than the losses in unprofitable transactions. This correct use of risk management will lead you to success. ____________ The example shows one of the real scenarios of any trading system where the rules of risk management are observed: Deposit of 10,000$ The risk per transaction is -1% (or -100$) Total trades: 4 profitable trades = +14% 10 losing trades = -10% Total: +4% (or + 400$) Even though only 30% of the total number of profitable transactions, we still have a profitable result. Learn risk management and become a consistently profitable trader. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
128
XAG/USD EVERY SUNDAY LIVE ZOOM ANALYSISThe gold & silver market is pushing significantly higher, following a significant miss in the U.S. labor market with fewer jobs created in August. Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said that 235,000 jobs were created last month. The data was weaker than expected as consensus forecasts called for jobs gains of 720,000. While the headline data saw a significant miss, the Labor Department included substantial revisions to its June and July numbers. June's employment numbers were revised up by 24,000 to 962,000 from the previous estimate of 938,000. Meanwhile, July's data was revised up to 1.053 million jobs compared to the initial estimate of 943,000. However, some economists note that the strong revisions are not enough to take the full sting out of the disappointing headline numbers. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, down from July's reading of 5.4%. The unemployment rate fell in line with expectations. The gold market has broken through critical near-term support levels in initial reaction to the weaker-than-expected employment data. December gold futures last traded at $1,827.10, up nearly 1% on the day. Not only was job growth weaker last month, but positive for gold, wage inflation continues to creep higher. The report said that wages rose 0.6% in August, up from July's 0.4% increase. Economists were expecting to see a 0.3% increase. A lot of focus had been placed on the August employment numbers. Many Federal Reserve officials noted that a strong number could prompt them to launch their plans to reduce their monthly bond purchases. However, some economists say the disappointing data could force the central bank to delay those plans. "This disappointing report will make it a closer call than we expected for a September tapering announcement from the Fed," said Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC. Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the latest employment numbers puts the Federal Reserve in a very difficult position. He noted that the economic data shows the COVID-19 pandemic and the spreading Delta Variant is impacting the current recovery. “Even allowing for the fact that first estimates for August often disappoint on the downside, the extent of the slowdown in jobs growth all-but rules out any tapering announcement at this month's FOMC meeting and, if this weakness persists, then it could be pushed into early next year. XAG/USD EVERY SUNDAY LIVE ZOOM ANALYSIS UK 18:00
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by globalsymmetrygroup
1
XAU/USD - CHART ANALYSIS - NFP ! The gold market still has a path to $2,000 in the second half of the year as the precious metal is undervalued in a world awash with liquidity, according to the latest research from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). In a report published Wednesday, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at BI, said that within the metals complex, gold appears to have the most potential when compared to other assets like copper and aluminum. "Copper and aluminum are reaching upper range price caps, but we see gold as a discounted bull market with improving fundamental underpinnings," he said in the report. "The copper-to-gold ratio has reached the highest level in about seven years and a rare disparity vs. declining U.S. Treasury bond yields, which we expect will be resolved by a resumption of the precious metal outperforming the industrial. Looking at aluminum, McGlone said that tightening supply and demand fundamentals are helping to push prices to $3,000 per tonne; however, similar to copper's run to $10,000, he added that aluminum’s rally appears to be unstable. He said that the industrial metal complex faces some challenging near-term hurdles. "Supply elasticity is proving strong for copper, indicating headwinds for the industrial-metal sector, but ESG, electrification and decarbonization trends should maintain the group's upper hand vs. most other commodities, with the exception of precious metals," he said. "Among the most supply-constrained commodities, gold and silver have the relative advantage heading toward the end of 2021 of having experienced sharp corrections within more enduring bull markets, as we see it." While there is plenty of bullish sentiment surging through precious metals markets, gold prices continue to struggle to find consistent momentum. The precious metal is holding support above $1,800 an ounce, but it has been unable to push above $1,820 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1,810.80 an ounce, down 0.29% on the day.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by globalsymmetrygroup
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING | Simple Flowchart For You to Follow 🧭📍 A short ⚠️disclaimer before we start: the rules that will be discussed in this post are applicable only for technicians - traders that are relying on price action/structure/etc. Also, we assume that structure levels do work and for us, key levels are considered to be the safest trading zones/points. In order to increase the accuracy of your predictions analyzing different financial markets, you must learn to identify the direction of the market.📈 The identification of the market trend must be based on strict & reliable & testable rules. It can be based on technical indicators or price action Personally, I prefer to rely on price action. Here are a couple of examples of how I identify the market trend: There are three main types of market trends: Bullish Trend Bearish Trend Sideways Market Depending on the current direction of the market, on the chart, I drew a flow chart✔️ that will help you to act safely. ➡️Sideways market signifies consolidation & indecision. Usually being in such a state the market tends to coil in horizontal ranges. To trade such a market safely, the best option for you will be to wait for a breakout of the range & wait for the initiation of the trend. ➡️Once you spotted a bullish market, do not rush to buy. Your task will be to identify the closest strong structure support. You must be patient enough to let the price reach that support first (and by the way, there is no guarantee that it will happen) and then you must wait for a certain confirmation. Please, check the article about different types of confirmations: Only once you get the needed confirmation you can buy the market. ➡️The same strategy will be applicable to a bearish market. Spotting a short rally it is way early to just sell the asset from a random point. You must find the closest strong structure resistance and wait for the moment when the price will approach that. Then your task will be to wait for a confirmation and only when you got the reliable trigger you short the market. 🦉Try to rely on this flow chart and I promise you that you will see a dramatic increase in your trading performance. And even though it may appear to you that this flow chart is TOO SIMPLE, in practice, even such a set of rules requires iron discipline and patience. Thank you so much for reading this article, I hope you enjoy it! ❤️Please, support it with like and comment. Thank you!
Editors' picks
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
163
Global events - the last 18 Months. I recently posted a timeline of Bitcoin events as well as record several videos on the current Elliott Wave moves around Bitcoin, DXY and a few Forex pairs. Here’s a link to the Bitcoin timeline; Looking back at the last 18 months or so now, I wanted to cover some of the significant events that have taken place, which would have had some (but not as much as you think) of an effect on the Elliott counts as a whole. For those of you not familiar with Elliott, there is a link in the ‘related ideas’ section covering the basics. So, let’s go back in time; Brexit announced back in 2016 – carried through and completed in 2020. Thus, kicking off the year with a fair size event, the global markets not quite sure what the fall out would be, where the damage would come and of course if there where to be profitable positions to obtain. An awful lot of hesitation & fear seen in the market. Jump forward to the next big event; although COVID-19 was technically pre 2020, the real effects did not start to emerge until early 2020 when the world went into LOCKDOWNS, crazy mayhem soon followed and has not really disappeared since. After the world starts to go mad! A few other things happen during this period! - Oil goes negative for the first time in HISTORY - Gold hits $2,000 - S&P creates an all-time high If this was not enough to cause global confusion, we also had an interesting period in the United States. All though there are plenty of other events that have shaped this last 18 months or so, you can clearly see with so much – the charts will be a little more sporadic, a little harder to read. So, although methods such as Elliott and Wyckoff are still very powerful. Even Wyckoff Schematics got a good run in the social media platforms! (Probably kicked that off in March) 😉 Interesting times ahead - @TradingView community, take care of yourself and keep in mind! It’s been a crazy 18-months, 2 years! **(This is not a trade idea, even a bias - it's just highlighting how insane these last 18-months have been) For education on Wyckoff and Elliott - see my bio below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
AUDUSD - How To Trade This Channel! 😍 📚AUDUSD is in a really nice channel where price is respecting both the limits of the channel. We saw a nice bounce off the channel support and looks like we'll be heading towards the channel resistance very soon. The basic rules of trading within a channel are the following: - Buy on bounce off channel support - Sell on rejection off channel resistance - Stoploss outside of the channel - Targets should be the outer limit of the channel ** For descending channels, the move down will always be bigger than the move up ** For ascending channels, the move up will always be bigger than the move down Do your best to identify channels in your trading - easy trades! Goodluck and as always trade safe!
Education
by WicktatorFX
5
Technical Analysis Vs Fundamental AnalysisTA Vs FA Both Technical and Fundamental analysis seeks to evaluate an asset. In my opinion, these 2 major analysis methods are similar more than you think! FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS The FA involves the financial analysis of an asset by focusing on the underlying factors that affect that asset. The assumption behind fundamental analysis is that the market does not always value assets (shares commodities, crypto, etc) correctly in the short term. Fundamental analysers try to identify the intrinsic value of assets to buy at a discount or sell at a high. They believe their investment will pay off over time once the market realises the fundamental value of an asset. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The technical analysis seeks to evaluate a company by: Using historical price, and Using Volume data to assess where the price of a security or market will move in the future. This means technical analysers are looking at past patterns and trends to see if they are repeatable in the future. one of the most important items in TA is the trend which shows a continuation of the current situation. WHY DO I THINK THESE 2 ARE VERY ALIKE? As mentioned, Fundamental analysis tries to identify the true value of an asset. For example for a company share price, FA will look at the company's balance sheet, cash flow statement, earnings reports, etc. The technical analysis considers that there is no need to do this hard work as a company’s fundamentals are already accounted for in the price, and the information is reflected in the company’s charts. So we need to look at charts and use indicators to find the best entry prices and the market will follow the trend. Many times if a financial report surprises traders we will see a spike in the price and depending on the nature of that news and other reports price may change direction or continue the previous trend.
NYSE:ASHEducation
by apadanaforex
2
The cicles of the volume peaks for intraday trading GOLDThese are the most volume supported price action times, which give a clear direction and positioning of big traders that move the markets. Between 14hrs and 15hrs (UTC+1) there is a high volume entry. Entrys must be done before that time or during the entry of volume , which is a gradual process until it reaches the highest point of the peak. That understanding of the movement and the pattern of human behavior behind is one of the most important aspects of technical analysis and must be mastered.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by mecoserra2008
Gold: How to Combine Technical & Fundamental To Get Best ResultsWhat Does Market Really Follow? We all know that market is normally run by based on Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Trading Sentiment. If you want to get a high result on your trade, you must combine these 3 analyses. As USD and Gold both are safe-haven currencies and reserve currencies as well. USD and Gold have a negative co-relation. If the USD rise, Gold will drop. If the USD drops Gold will rise. Which Fundamental Factors Are Responsible for Golds Move? 1. US Economical Reports 2. World Wide Economic Conditions 3. Man-made or Natural Disaster (For the moment Covid Situations) 4. Political or Economic Crisis 5. Central Bank's Rate Decision and some other reasons. What to Do Firstly? You must have a look at US economic reports. US job Market Report, CPI, Manufacturing Reports, and FED economic Overview. If most of the fundamental reports are positive from the USA, that means fundamentally USD is in a good position, which means Gold has a chance to drop. especially CPI / Inflation reports are important for hiking bank rates. So, if you see recent most of the high-impact reports are positive, that means gold has more chance that it will drop and FED is going to deliver the hawkish statement. FED's hawkish statement will give an extra benefit to USD what is negative for Gold. What to Do Secondly Now see your technical chart. A trading view has many awesome tools to draw your Technical Charts. Personally, I do follow pure price action. Based on your chart analysis, find an entry rate, exit rates, and where the stop loss and profit should be put. You can use any kind of technical tools, indicators of what is suitable for you. What To Do Thirdly? To get the trading sentiment, Option expiry and Cot reports will help you a lot. Especially cot reports are free, so check last cot reports. Day Traders usually follow non-Commercial contract positions. if you are a day trader checks a non-commercial contract. if most of the contracts are in a short mode, that means banks, hedge funds, and other financial authorities are selling more. commercial contracts are also very important. because they are big guns and big companies. you should also check their position. Non-Reputable contracts are not really important. How Will I Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis and implement to my trade? This is the final part. If you see most of the US economic reports are positive in recent months, especially job market reports, manufacturing reports, and Inflation reports. In this case, most of the time FED delivers a hawkish statement. So, you think for Buying USD and Sell Gold. If you see US Economic reports are not supportive, then think about selling USD and buying Gold. This is the first part. I will write details about it in my second part. till then keep reading. If you think this article helped you then, like, comment, and share with your trader's community.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Gold_Trading_Expert
4
The Importance of Understanding the Commodities MarketIn this educational post, I'll be explaining the reason why both investors and traders need to understand the commodities market. The commodities market is a market in which raw, hard, and soft commodities are traded. Examples of commodity assets include gold, oil, wheat, grain, copper, and even livestock. While these aren't commonly traded markets among retail investors, understanding assets within the realm of commodities can provide an edge in trading and investing. Benefits to Investors - The primary reason that investors needs to understand the commodity market is because it helps provide an overall picture of the entire financial market. - For instance, in the case of Nickel, Copper, Zinc, and other industrial metals, the price action differs depending on the market cycle, and certain metals are sensitive to, and heavily affected by specific industries. - Popular commodities like Gold and Oil’s price action reflects the overall market trend and sentiment. - As such, a retail investor with a deep understanding in commodities is capable of looking at the stock market from a different angle. - Secondly, understanding commodities provides a huge advantage in terms of portfolio management. - How 'well' you have invested, isn't simply determined by your annual return. - Your sharpe ratio (your return divided by the volatility) tells a more accurate story. - In order to succeed as a retail investor, you need to focus on increasing your sharpe ratio, or your risk adjusted return. - And the best way to do so, is to diversify, specifically by looking at the correlation between certain assets. - There are a plethora of assets in the commodities market that provide a great hedge / means of diversification against the stock market. - Leveraging this knowledge will help investors design a portfolio that provides them great risk-adjusted-returns. Benefits to Traders - The commodities market can be a great opportunity for traders, as long as they spend their time getting used to the market. - Normally, when the stock market is overbought, or when it demonstrates sideways action, traders often make the mistake of overtrading. - Traders enter positions at suboptimal levels, because they have no option but to trade at the stock market. - However, understanding the commodity market gives them an edge. The best analogy to explain this, is like playing online poker. - When playing poker, the player waits for good hands to appear, so he can make a bet in his favor. - When he plays online poker, he can have multiple games going on at once, and play the game where he gets the upper hand. - In the same vein, when a trader knows how to trade commodities, instead of waiting for a good entry in the stock market, he can simply trade assets within the commodities market. - If you think stocks are overvalued, there’s a chance for you to move onto gold, silver, oil, or even industrial metals. - You can take a look at multiple assets, and find one that has a good risk/reward ratio right now. Conclusion The commodity market is a market that is huge in size, yet often overlooked my many, if not most retail traders and investors. However, understanding which assets are traded, their price action (in relation to other assets), can help both investors and traders acquire an edge.
Editors' picks
TVC:USOILEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
7
Impact of Fed Unchanged Interest Rate and Gold PricesHere I tried to show the movement of the day when Fed announces its unchanged Interest Rate decisions during the last 6 times. As you can see, the gold prices had been quite volatile during the last Fed decision on June the 16th and shed 1.45%. Since then, the yellow metal has not been able to overcome the loss and is in the downward trend. Please note that this is shared for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended for financial decisions. If you like the idea, please like and comment :)
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn621491
EDUCATION - TOP REVERSAL PATTERNS ⚡At the end of a trend, there is a typically a reversal pattern indicating to us that the trend is about to reverse. There are 3 main patterns that you NEED to know. 1. Double Top/Double Bottom A double top/bottom pattern is a chart pattern that consists of 2 consecutive peaks of similar height indicating that there is not enough buying/selling pressure to surpass the extremes of the price. This leads to a reversal in trend. Double top is a bullish to bearish trend reversal. Double bottom is a bearish to bullish trend reversal. For a safe entry, entry would be after the break of the neck line (the last swing point) which is a confirmation that the it is a valid double top/bottom pattern. Double Top: 2. Rising Wedge/Falling Wedge A rising/falling wedge is a chart pattern that occurs when price is making higher highs and higher lows (in an uptrend – rising wedge) and lower lows and lower highs (in a downtrend – falling wedge). As the pattern progresses in the wedge, the range of the price contracts and is confined between 2 lines which get closer. Price eventually breaks out of the wedge and creates a reversal. Rising wedge is a bullish to bearish trend reversal. Falling wedge is a bearish to bullish trend reversal. For a safe entry, wait for a breakout of the wedge to confirm the validity of the wedge pattern. Rising Wedge: 3. Head & Shoulders/Inverse Head & Shoulders A head and shoulders pattern is a chart pattern that appears as a baseline with three peaks. The outside two peaks (shoulders) are close in height and the middle is highest. A normal head and shoulders is a bullish to bearish trend reversal. An INVERSE head and shoulders is a bearish to bullish trend reversal. For a safe entry, it is often advised to enter on the break of the neckline as that would be confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern. Inverse Head & Shoulders: Do your best to find them in your analysis!
Education
by Altsignals
3
Understanding Range TrapsAfter an impulsive move, the market tends to enter into a consolidation. This is the zone where buys and sellers fight to win the next move. Of course, whenever sellers and buyers are fighting - liquidity is built. In this example, sellers attempted to sell from the structure only to be stop hunted before the true move to the downside. Likewise, buyers would have got activated in buy stops from the structure break to the upside. Their stop losses would have been placed below the support which again got tackled after the sellers got dealt with. Once the buyers and sellers liquidity had been wiped the true move could continue which was to the downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by AlkalineFX
4