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What is going on in the markets? Aftermaths of Russian invasionRight after Russia declared war and started its military operations in Ukraine, the markets started going crazy. Investors started moving to "safe heaven" trades and sticking with "risk-off" securities. GOLD (XAU/USD) is everyone's favourite to trade for the moment, as the price plummeted straight after the escalation of the war. It has experienced a growth of +4.5% so far, and it has more upside potential. EUR/USD, having a strong negative correlation with GOLD, has endured a 200 pip drop so far, constituting a 1.8% dip. AUD/USD, GBP/USD and other highly correlated USD pairs have deteriorated as well. BITCOIN, often claimed as "digital Gold", is still continuing its downside movements, experiencing a 12.6% drop in 24 hours. Sticking to the safe heavens and riding the trend would be the best possibility right now. Also, remember to stay risk tolerant and cold-blooded, as the markets could get really volatile from time to time, taking into account the current situation.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Investroy
9
Charts can really help during periods of uncertaintyRussia invades Ukraine is the headline and every market in the world it feels like is moving and it is very easy to feel overwhelmed almost to the point of panic, a very quick glance around the markets can see that gold is up, stocks down, the US Dollar is up, and oil looks to be heading above 100. It's hard to know where to focus one’s attention or even where to start and it really helps to be able to just look at some charts and put some of these moves in context. Yes, the price of Crude Oil is high, but it’s been higher – back in 2011 and 2012 it was regularly above 110 and in 2008 we were a lot nearer to 150. The stock markets are down a lot, take a look at a chart and see where the support is – I wrote about this recently. For the S+P, the base of the cloud is nearer to 3875…the 200-week ma is down at 3387. By the way a good thing to note is that during periods of uncertainty that markets tend to mean revert to their long-term moving averages and in particular I like to watch to 55 and 200- week moving averages – if you are not a sophisticated chart watcher – no bother, if you just know where these 2 moving averages are you can use these as a proxy for a target zone. The 2020 high on gold was nearer to 2030 BUT we know that gold is in a long term up move and the chances are we are going to make a new high. What do we use if we are in all-time highs for targets, there are many techniques - Fibonacci extensions, point and figure (probably my favourite), channels, and patterns to name but a few are all ways to give you upside targets. I have a Fibonacci extension on the topside at 2110 ish, but I also have another more important target nearer to 2150. So, my advice is do not panic – LOOK AT A CHART!! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by The_STA
32
My Trading Strategy in 4 simple steps.Today I will explain step by step the process I use to develop setups. This is how my strategy works. And this can be applied to any asset and using any technical tools. This is as close as I can get to using an empiric approach to define my trading opportunities. Let's start. My trading strategy is composed of 4 steps: 1) Whats the context of the price? Here, I want to understand all the characteristics of the current situation I'm observing. Mainly I will try to define this in the Daily chart. Examples: * Are we making a new ATH? * Are we inside a 300 days correction? * Is the price above or below a Daily trendline? * Are we inside a small correction or a 50%+ decline? 2) Now that I understand my context. Can I look for similar situations in the historical data of this asset? I only work with assets with enough historical data to conduct this type of analysis. If I'm able to find at least 2 previous situations with similar characteristics to what I'm looking for, I proceed with the next step. Here I use the Weekly and logarithmic chart to identify these situations. 3) Do I see a consistent pattern that I can use to trade in those similar situations in the past? Here I will use lower timeframes like the 4HS chart, and I will look into more details in those similar situations. I will try to find something objective, like "The first retest after the breakout of the most external line of the corrections. If I see consistent behavior and a good risk to reward ratio, I will proceed with the final element of my strategy. 4)Define the pattern I'm waiting for and the execution process in advance. At this stage, I want to say, "I'm waiting for this," and this is how I will trade it. This includes: *Entry level *Stop level *Break-even level *Take profit level. *Risk. And this is it. At this stage, my setup can be executed or canceled depending on the price behavior, but in a nutshell, this is the system I have been using for the last 3 years, and I can say that this has, on average, a win rate of 50% and an average risk to reward ratio of 2. I hope this information was useful. Feel free to share your view in the comments or any doubt you may have. Thanks.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
103
Why gold is the king during all kinds of crisis? You might have heard a lot of things about the benefits of investing in gold these days. Gold has been called the best and the king of investment, or it is no longer worth investing in because it will not grow anymore. Gold will remain king forever in investing, let me explain why. The price of gold will increase in the coming days but will not decrease in the same way as the world is moving towards the day. The Corona Pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine issue, in particular, have shown it with our fingers in the eye. There are a thousand reasons why investing in gold can be explained. Why investing in gold is safe and profitable. I will try to explain some of the significant reasons that can easily inspire you to invest in gold. Some put their money into stocks, bonds, and real estate, but what does it give them? Gold has gone through many ups and downs and still has a long way to go. There’s no limit to how much you can own with stocks and bonds. With gold, there’s only so much that can be mined or dug up from the earth, which means you won’t be seeing any inflation on your value as time goes on. Inflation with stocks and bonds creates losses in value over time if your investments don’t keep up with price fluctuations. Gold has always been called the best investment during a crisis. Gold has been called the best investment globally, but you have to do your research before you put your money in an unknown commodity like gold. Researching gold will give you an idea of its value over time. You can also check other websites to find out what others think about gold and how it stacks up against other investments. There are lots of benefits to investing in gold. There are several different types of investments, such as stocks, cryptocurrency, and bonds, that have many risks involved because they go up and down with market fluctuations. With gold, there’s no chance for significant fluctuations. Rather than that, gold is more stable and less volatile and follows proper rules. It’s always worth the same amount, which makes this type of investment safer than others. During Corona Pandemic in the last two years, we have come to realize this very well. Although stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies have risen in value since the beginning of the Corona, over time, everything except gold has seen a bubble up. No asset other than gold has been able to sustain them. If you look, Nasdaq has dropped about 15% since November last year. The shares of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, PayPal, Facebook, Amazon, and almost all the big companies have dropped hugely. Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund illustrates the beating that mid-to-large cap tech has taken. It’s down 58% since last February and 47% since November. You will be more frustrated when you look at cryptocurrencies. Most cryptocurrencies have lost much of their value. But gold has surpassed everything and has only risen to the top, giving investors a stable profit. Gold is a hedge against inflation. Gold is a hedge against inflation because you would still own an amount that could be sold today even if it were to lose value. Gold is a hedge against inflation because you would still own an amount that could sell today even if it were to lose value. Inflation has started rising a few days after the Pandemic. Since the Pandemic has caused a lot of business losses, inflation has naturally increased, and economic growth has slowed down. As inflation rises, central banks naturally try to control inflation by raising interest rates. Typically, if the bank rate increases, the gold price drops. But if the economic uncertainty increases, then the gold price does not drop that way but the reverse increases. We have seen that gold has been a hedge against inflation in the last few months. Although almost all the assets have lost their colossal value, gold is still rising due to inflation. I think during inflationary pressure investment in gold is a good choice. Gold will be valuable for a long time. The value of gold has been on the rise over the years, and so will the return on your investment. Gold is a hedge against inflation because you would still own an amount that could be sold today even if it were to lose value. Inflation has started rising a few days after the Pandemic. Since the Pandemic has caused a lot of business losses, inflation has naturally increased, and economic growth has slowed down. As inflation rises, central banks naturally try to control inflation by raising interest rates. Usually, if the bank rate increases, the gold price drops. But if the economic uncertainty increases, then the gold price does not drop that way but the reverse increases. We have seen that gold has been a hedge against inflation in the last few months. Although almost all the assets have lost their vast value, gold is still rising due to inflation. Gold is a haven in times of crisis, such as war, economic instability, or natural disaster. It’s also an excellent investment to make when you require extra cash or need to protect your wealth from inflation while the market crashes or fluctuates wildly. If you want to get long-term profit, investment in gold could be a good choice. Gold is Formidable Gold is formidable because it has a long way to go before reaching its final value. Gold is still new and doesn’t have the same recognition as other investments. So, you could consider gold an investment option for now until it becomes more widely known and eventually becomes even more valuable. If your investments don’t keep up with price fluctuations, you are losing value over time. But with gold, since there’s only so much that can be mined or dug up from the earth, your value will gradually increase over time without any risk of loss in value. As mentioned before, gold is currently an unknown investment and might not be recognized or valued by many investors yet. With this in mind, if you’re looking for an option that doesn’t require too much work and isn’t too risky, then gold is an excellent option to think about investing in today. You can’t deny investment in gold is more formidable than investing in another asset in the current time. The Amount Of Gold Is Limited You can’t make gold in the laboratory or the factory even if you want to. So gold stocks are always limited. Many of us say that bitcoin cannot be made arbitrarily, so the price of bitcoin will exceed one million dollars. Cryptocurrency has not been created for many years. So it cannot be said yet; this is the last word. And Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency on the market. For the sake of argument, bitcoins can no longer be made after a certain amount, but there are now over 6,000 cryptocurrencies on the market, all of which are being used as alternatives to one another. But since the days of gold, gold has been used as a medium of exchange. What is the alternative? No answer. You might say that there are money notes as an alternative to gold. Wait! Money notes have no instinctual value like gold. It’s just a piece of paper. Its value is also different in different countries. Maybe the money of one country cannot go to another country. But gold runs all over the world, and it has instant value. Gold is a safe haven asset. Gold is a safe haven asset. While the price of everything goes down during any crisis, the price of gold goes up in reverse due to its peak demand as a safe haven. Gold prices have risen almost all the time since the 1970s, according to the Economic and Political Crisis. You don’t have to look too far. Just look at the 2008 economic crisis. See the chart above. The economic crisis began in late 2008. When the economic crisis started, the price of gold was 670 / ounce. It took almost three years to overcome this economic crisis. And in these three years, the price of gold has risen by about 1230 USD, which is 12300 pips in pips. Let me make it a little easier for you when Corona Pandemic started in early 2020, the price of gold rose by about 614 dollars per ounce in 6 months, 6114 pips per pips. See the chart above. Overall, gold is the only asset that is truly a safe haven asset. Now you can say the price of bitcoin went up more, then? Wait! Bitcoins are not as stable as gold. Too risky, too volatile. Just as bitcoin has risen, so has it. You should never invest in such a risky and high volatile asset as an investor. And yet you see gold is about to rise later. With stocks and bonds, there is always that chance for financial ruin. You could wake up one morning to find out that the company you’ve put all of your faith in decided to cut their production or even just close their doors. But gold will never fail you because those factors do not affect you. This makes it easy to compare prices with other investments, like stocks and bonds, because they keep changing over time, so it can be hard to figure out what they’re worth at any given point in time. Gold is easy to cash. If you cash in your gold, you can get your money back, even if it’s just a few years later. Another good aspect of gold is that what can readily cash gold. You need cash now, and you can sell it instantly if you want. The money of one country may not go to another country, but if you have gold, you can quickly cash it. If you have gold, you can quickly get a bank loan against those goals and very fast. Gold can also be invested in many aye, such as physical gold coins, bars, or gold bullions. These are very easy to cache. Gold Stocks, ETFs, Gold Options, Gold Bonds, Sovereign Bonds, Gold Funds are some of the more options you can easily invest and cash in, which is often not possible with other assets. Cryptocurrency transactions are not allowed in many countries of the world. But there is no country where gold transactions are prohibited. It is easier to cash in on gold than on any other asset, and the options for investing in gold are more than any other asset. What happens when the stock market crashes? The value of your stocks and bonds will drop and leave you with debt or even bankruptcy, but with gold, you can still have peace of mind that you are financially stable. Central banks reserve gold Almost all the countries in the world have more or less gold reserves. The United States itself has more dollars in reserves than other countries. That is America but the number 1 country in the gold reserve. America also knows very well that this paper money will not be of any use in case of danger. Commodity and gold are the hope then. The United States has imposed economic sanctions on many countries in its interest. Those countries support their economies with this gold. And they deal with the outside world either with gold or their home currency. And the more gold reserves a country has, the more foreigners come to that country. External investors do not feel the risk. Because outside companies think they can easily take the profit after investing. And day by day, America is imposing an economic blockade on different countries. That day is not far away. Different countries will reduce their dollar reserves and not use gold or home currency. However, it is safe to say that gold will soon gain the confidence of many countries as a reserve currency and will use gold as a medium of exchange, excluding the dollar. Conclusion Gold is a safe haven for the world’s currencies. It’s not just a valuable investment, it’s a hedge against inflation, and it’s an excellent way to save for retirement. Given that the amount of gold is limited, it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. And if you’re looking for an investment that is easy to sell when the time comes, gold is your answer.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Gold_Trading_Expert
BTC FAIR MARKET VALUE IN RELATION TO VOLATILITY VS. GOLD. Came across this article which confirmed what I long suspected. The more institutionalized BTC becomes the more it's volatility decreases and value increases but there is a cut off. Fair market value will always be in the forefront as far as an investment grade asset. BTC overtaking gold is highly unlikely in our lifetime. At present, there is in global circulation roughly $11 TRILLION in gold. Compare that to BTC where all the bitcoins in the world were worth roughly $1.03 trillion. Bitcoin is worth only about 9% of the world's gold supply. The combined value of bitcoin was equivalent to just 2.9% of the world's money. JPMorgan says its long-term bitcoin price target of $150,000 is unlikely as surging volatility challenges institutional adoption. Bitcoin's "fair value" is 12% below its current price, based on its volatility in relation to gold, according to JPMorgan. The bank's analysis was made on the assumption that bitcoin is four times as volatile as gold, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Tuesday. In that scenario, bitcoin's value would be one quarter of $150,000, or $38,000, they said. But if bitcoin were only three times as volatile as gold, then its fair value would be around $50,000, they added. Bitcoin last traded 1.8% higher on the day around $43,564, close to its highest for a month, but is still down 8% so far this year, according to data from CoinMarketCap. JPMorgan's long-term price target for bitcoin is $150,000, up from last year's $146,000 target, assuming that its volatility level meets that of gold, or bitcoin allocations get the same weighting as gold in investor portfolios. But the bank thinks this target is unlikely to be reached any time soon, given that such a neat intersection between gold and bitcoin may not happen in the foreseeable future. Bitcoin has had a rough start to the year, with the overall cryptocurrency market slumping, as appetite for risk assets waned against a backdrop of persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance. The leading cryptocurrency fell below $36,000, and ether tumbled below $2,500 — both off from record highs of around $63,000 and $4,800, respectively. One of the major drivers for crypto in the last two years has been the huge amounts of cheap cash that has emanated from fiscal and monetary stimulus programs during the pandemic, and much of that is now coming to an end. JPMorgan said January's crypto market correction, in which bitcoin lost 17% in value, looks less like capitulation, or an extended period of decline, in comparison to last May when bitcoin fell 35%. Still, strategists said the biggest challenge for bitcoin is its volatility, as it's often unappealing to institutional investors. JPMorgan said cryptocurrencies are seeing hot growth relative to other alternative asset classes, but this doesn't have to stem from continually rising prices. "This growth does not necessarily need to come from continuous price appreciation of existing cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum, already popular among institutional investors, but in our mind it is more likely to come from the expansion of the universe of digital assets," the strategists said.
BITMEX:BVOLEducation
by John_Q_Public
GoldViewFX - 30M CHART SCALPING STRATEGY IN ACTION LIVE $$Hey All, This is a follow up post from the 20 pip scalping strategy we posted (SEE RELATED POST BELOW). This chart shows you live examples of the entries and exits today. Remember when scalping with this strategy SL to be set for exit when EMA5 reverses and crosses back the opposite way. Tight stops and a numbers game, so please back test aswell. I have back tested this and the wins over SLs always been profitable over my trading periods. When we refer to floating candle, we mean floating away from MA21. It can still touch EMA5. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support our work, so we can bring you more quality content. GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Goldviewfx
13
Complete Macro AnalysisHello everybody! This is a follow up on my 6-part traditional and crypto market analysis, yet everyone that reads this one will benefit greatly, regardless of whether they've read any of the previous analyses or not. Over the last week I provided some updates on each part, however it currently makes more sense for me to make a brand-new holistic analysis, rather than provide small updates on each part. This one will be focused entirely on traditional markets, while the next one will be focused entirely on crypto. In order for anyone to have a better idea of where markets might be headed next, it is best to start with the bond market. Bond yields have been rising across the world and across the entire curve, with the big distinction that lower duration bond yields have been rising significantly faster than long term ones. The main reason that this is happening is that bond markets are expecting Central banks to raise rates a few times in the next 1-2 years, but don't believe they can do anything more than that. Essentially the market sees inflation being transitory, that the global economy is in a bad shape and that Central banks are in such a terrible spot, that by the time they raise rates a few times, they will be forced to start cutting them again. Based on the charts below, it is clear that bond yields are still in a massive downtrend. The 10y yields have started hitting resistance, while yesterday we got the first rejection at resistance due to the Russia/Ukraine news. It is pretty normal for people to seek safety at times like this, by buying bonds (bond yields and bonds are inversely correlated). So, as you can see on the third chart, the minute bonds got to support and the news started coming out, the bond market bounced. Although I wish that war between Russia and Ukraine doesn't happen, and actually believe it won't happen, in case that it does happens, the Fed gets some room to not raise rates. For many reasons that I mentioned in the previous analysis, it is clear that inflation will come down significantly in 2022 and there is very little the Fed could do about it anyways. Therefore, any excuse they might be able to use to not raise, they will probably use it. Having said all that, bonds are still in a short to medium term bear market, and could fall another 5-10% before they put in a final bottom (yields going up by 0.5-1% from here). Now the situation between Russia and Ukraine doesn't affect markets just because it affects the psychology of people or because governments print money to cover expenses of war. There are several severe implications around trade and resources, as a lot of trade especially between Europe and Russia could stop, while Russia is a major exporter of commodities, primarily of Oil and Natural Gas. Europe and the entire world were already facing serious problems around energy, and this could make things even worse. Again, for many reasons mentioned in the previous analysis, there isn't enough oil above ground or oil production to cover the needs of the world at reasonable prices. OPEC isn't even able to meet its production increase goals, let alone be able to handle Russia not giving oil to the rest of the world. Oil is already pretty expensive relative to where it should be given the current state of the global economy, and based on the charts it could go significantly higher. So far, the market has behaved as I had expected, with a rise up to 92-93$, a pullback and now another push higher. It's not yet clear if the current situation will boost oil prices above 100$, but it is certainly possible. In the short term it is easy to see a mini 'speculative shock', that could send crude up to 115-120$, only for it to then come all the way down to 75$ and find support there. What is interesting to note is how Gold has been able to hold its ground for so long, despite bond yields going higher. Not only that, but it currently sits above all major moving averages and pivots, while it has also broken above its key diagonal resistance. The truth is that the breakout isn't as decisive as one might have expected based on the news that came out on Friday, hence it might be a trap. It’s clear that the breakout was heavily affected by the the Russia/Ukraine news and that could be the catalyst for a gold bull market, but it’s still prudent to be cautious. What is even more interesting is that Gold has gone up, while most Central banks are raising or plan to raise rates, and while the USD has been going up since early 2021. In my previous analysis, I mentioned how I thought gold going up or down is more like a coin toss, as there is a strong case to be made in either direction. Some people took that as me being bearish on Gold, while what I had said was that above 1930-1940 gold might be tremendous for going long. Personally I prefer to buy strength and simply sacrifice some gains, in order to avoid being stuck in a trade that doesn't do well. A few weeks ago, the ECB hadn't even talked about raising rates, but now they have. Right after the Fed meeting the EURUSD pair had a major reversal that accelerated when the ECB started turning hawkish. My initial thought was to watch Gold closely, as now 3 of the 5 major Central banks are raising or talking about raising rates, yet gold remains strong. At the moment EURUSD has been rejected at resistance with an SFP, yet it still has some room to the upside. It's above the 50 DMA and the diagonal, so if everything goes well and tensions get resolved peacefully, the pair could easily get to 1.15-1.17 by the next Fed meeting. The USD seems to already been losing steam as the yield curve is flattening and there are already 7 rate hikes being priced in. Hence the ‘real’ news isn’t that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% in an emergency meeting or that it will raise rates by 0.5%, but that the ECB might raise rates after an entire decade, as well as that all Central banks will be forced to cut rates relatively soon. Therefore, this gold strength could also be an indication that many investors are betting on a policy error by Central banks, which might be forced to reverse course faster than people expect. What people need to know, is that gold doesn't behave like most people think it does. Gold in our age, is more like an error/catastrophe hedge, that tends to follow real rates. For example, today Gold could benefit from two things: 1. A war is definitely a big boost for gold, as people might want to own it because it is of limited supply and has no counterparty risk, and it can easily be owned anywhere. Countries that go to war tend to devalue their currency or even seize assets, or that country itself could be excluded from the global financial system, like being kicked out of the SWIFT system. In such a situation gold tends to offer tremendous certainty, while nothing else really does, not even US treasuries. 2. When Central banks are cornered or have no real control over a certain situation. Currently it is obvious that Central banks are trapped, and that there is another major 'catastrophe' lying ahead. The world is stuck in an environment of low growth and too much debt, with markets being significantly overleveraged. None of the problems over the last 20-30 years have been solved, only papered over, hoping that the system magically heals, with the last 13 years alone being full of examples of them always acting late. Finally, the key reasons why gold hasn't done well during a situation of deeply negative interest rates, is that 1. Gold had rallied significantly since 2018, 2. There were lots of different, more compelling opportunities out there, 3. Everyone was already prepared (nobody else to buy + people had to sell gold as inflation increased to covered other costs, essentially using their insurance), 4. Most of the inflation wasn't caused by the Fed / Central bank actions. After having gone through all of the above, it is definitely time to talk about stocks. Once again I’ll focus on the top 3 US indices, SPX, NDX and RUT, as they can give us a pretty good idea of where stocks are headed globally. In my previous analysis I mentioned how I expected a bounce, a dip and then another bounce, which all pretty much played out based on my technical analysis, with one exception. The last move up was shorter than initially expected, however even based on my tools I was probably 'too optimistic'. Starting with the S&P 500, we can see how the bullish channel was broken and significant downside followed. Then the market had a strong bounce off the 300 DMA + horizontal support. After the bounce it got rejected on the 100 DMA + diagonal resistance + horizontal resistance, and fell down to the 200 DMA where it bounced. What is odd to me is that the bounce ended with a double top, rather than getting up to the 50 DMA and test the diagonal, while forming an SFP. A double top there is somewhat bullish in the short term, as it is an area that the market will probably break before making new lows. At the moment the market is sitting right at the Yearly Pivot but has broken below the 200 DMA, a situation that is neither very bullish or bearish. As a whole the momentum is indeed pointing lower and this isn't a great picture. In turn the Nasdaq 100 is actually looking much worse than the S&P 500, as a lot of the big tech behemoths have been taking several big hits recently. Slow growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates, are definitely not beneficial for these companies. For example, we saw a massive gap down for Facebook after a disappointing earnings report, a gap similar to what happened in June 2018, with the NDX going down 19% from that point in the next 6 months. Tech stocks have massively outperformed everything else since 2009, and pretty much everything compared to where they were in Feb 2020, so it is normal to get some extra weakness in this index. At the same time several parts of the stock market started peaking throughout 2021, with mid Feb 2021 being a major inflection point. At that time many unprofitable tech related companies had reached bubble territory and started reversing, but the effects of their valuation getting crushed started having an impact on NDX three months ago. The third index and final index is the Russell 2000, which looks like it was in distribution for about 10 months, while a few days ago it had a throw back into resistance. The RUT had a really strong breakout in Nov 2020 and by March 2021 it was up 35%. Then in September it formed a clear bull trap that led to the major leg down. Once the 2100 support that was tested multiple times for about a year was broken, it became clear that more downside would soon follow. At the time of my previous analysis, I mentioned that we'd probably see the Russell retest that support and flip it into resistance, which happened as expected. Now the index is below all major moving averages and Pivots, and is still looking bearish, even though in the short term it has shown a decent amount of strength. Until it reclaims 2250, it remains in bearish territory and it is probably best to avoid going long, Based on all the above, things overall aren't looking great. At least not in the short to medium term, for the economy and the stock market. Central banks are trapped and most investors are aware of that, and now there is an extra variable, that of the conflict. So the question then becomes, if everyone is aware of all of this, couldn't the market simply go up from here? Aren't lots of these things priced in? Aren't wars said to be good for the stock market? Well, like I mentioned above all of these are correct. It is true that due to the conflict we might see bond yields roll over and we get more stimulus from central banks and governments, both of which could push stocks higher. However, in the short term there is a lot of uncertainty due to the way many things will get disrupted in the world. Because of that gold and oil could go ballistic, hence they are the best bets at the moment. It is probably best to stay away from stocks for now, as their potential downside is substantial, while their potential upside is limited as they need some time to recover. Nothing in the charts really suggest that they are ready to go up hard any time soon. Let's also not forget that stocks would have eventually deflated to an extend, regardless of what the Fed or what happens in the world, as the 2020-2021 frenzy couldn't last forever. Of course this doesn't mean that I believe a major bear market is in play right now, just that the SPX could eventually get to 3900-4000 in the next year, that the NDX will test its major log diagonal and that the RUT will its 2018 highs. Although I don't know how or when we get there, to me the most likely scenario is that within the next 2 years bond yields will collapse and the government will be forced to spend a lot, while the Fed is forced to cut rates and do QE. Even if the yields don't collapse and inflation goes rampant, the US government will still be forced to print and spend a lot, something that would make the problems worse. In conclusion, despite the fact that I was mostly bullish on stocks and oil through 2020-2021 and neutral-bearish on gold, my stance now remains bullish on oil (buying dips anywhere from 55-75$), neutral-bullish on gold and neutral-bearish on stocks. For me to turn bullish on stocks again, I'd either need to see certain levels get to the downside or reclaim certain levels to the upside, or some extreme action by central banks or governments. In terms of US bonds and the US Dollar, the picture is not as clear. In early 2021 I was bearish on bonds, but after that I was bullish as I didn't really expect the Fed to raise rates and thought bonds were significantly oversold. Even if I wasn't expecting the Fed to raise rates, the USD was also extremely oversold and none of the issues of the financial system had been solved. The world was still short on dollars, what the Fed and the government did was too little and at the same time everyone printed. In the current environment, on the one hand bonds are in major downtrend and the USD is in a major uptrend, and on the other hand both might have reversed after hitting major inflection points. Hence it is probably better to either go with the trend or simply wait a bit until the market gives us a clearer picture as to where it wants to go next. Thanks a lot for reading and good luck with your trading! :)
FX:NAS100Education
by BitcoinMacro
Knowing when NOT to trade is also important | XAUUSD Today we will take a look at XAUUSD. I really like this asset to trade because of the consistent trends it provides, which are great for swing traders. When you are executing a swing strategy , the main thing is avoiding choppy conditions and increasing the odds of developing setups on situations where you may observe clean trends from point A to point B. In this situation, I want to show how I'm currently thinking XAUUSD . Since MAY 2021, the price has been moving sideways on an average price of 1800, going up and down. This is the type of situation where I don't want to develop swing setups because I'm not observing trending behavior. That's why NOT trading is protecting my capital from low-quality setups. The better you become at waiting for perfect scenarios, the higher the odds to engage on high-quality trades that provide a clear edge after several executions. As you can see, I have defined the current area between the support and the resistance as "Bad zones for swing setups." And I have defined the support and the resistance zone as "good levels for setups" Why? Because as I explained before, in the current area, we are not observing clear trends for us to develop swing setups. That's why we need to wait for the price to make contact with key levels (support and resistance). It is from these key levels that 2 things may happen: the price will break it or bounce. As we are working on a weekly timeframe, these situations will not occur in a few hours, it will take days until the resolution of the direction. That's why if you do your homework, you can get ready to react in the best way once the price reaches these zones where we will tend to observe some reactions and the beginning of a new movement. My current plan is this: IF the price reaches the support zone at 1680, I want to start thinking in bullish setups towards 1900 or bearish setups towards 1450 IF the price reaches the resistance zone at 1900, I want to start thinking in bullish setups towards 2070 or bearish setups towards 1680 I hope this post is helpful to better understand the difference between good and bad zones to develop setups. Remember becoming patient can be a POWERFULL edge on the market. Most of the people are not. Thanks for reading and feel free to share your view in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
WHAT IS AN ETF? (Exchange-Traded Fund)📚 ✅An ETF is an exchange-traded investment fund. The fund's management company draws up a strategy and acquires assets in its portfolio, and then issues shares - small shares of this portfolio. When selling an ETF, the investor pays tax in the same way as if it were ordinary shares. ✅If 40 years ago only 6% of American families invested money in investment funds, now they are about 46%. At the end of the third quarter of 2020, $29.5 trillion was invested in open-ended investment funds in the United States — this is almost half of all assets managed by funds around the world. ⚠️What instruments are included in the ETF 🟢The fund's portfolio may consist of any instruments traded on the stock exchange. For example, stocks, bonds, currency, precious metals. Their ratio depends on the fund's strategy. Once in a certain period, the management company reviews the portfolio and rebalances, that is, sells some assets and buys others. 🟢All actions are subject to strict rules, from which managers cannot deviate. All information about the composition of the ETF and the frequency of portfolio rebalancing is available in the fund's documentation. 🟢ETFs can consist of securities, precious metals, derivatives - there are practically no restrictions. Therefore, today there are thousands of funds with very different structures. For example, there is the Global X Millennials ETF— which is a fund for shares of brands beloved by millennials. Or Direxion Work From Home ETF - it invests in services that benefit from the widespread transition to remote work. ❗️What are ETFs 🔴When a fund copies a stock index, it applies replication, that is, it exactly repeats the composition of the index. There are two types of replication — physical and synthetic. If an ETF uses physical replication, it buys the index assets themselves - stocks, bonds, and everything else. 🔴If a fund uses synthetic replication, it does not buy the index assets themselves. Instead, the fund uses an index derivative — an agreement between the parties that the transaction will be executed. A change in the value of the index entails a change in the value of the derivative. On the one hand, this is beneficial for the investor, but on the other hand, a complete repetition of the index may be inaccurate. In addition, there is a risk that the derivative provider will not fulfill its obligations. 🔴In index ETFs, the investor should pay attention to the error of following or tracking error. Let's say the IMOEX index has gained 12% over the year, and the ETF for this index has only 11%. The management costs in this fund are 0.5%, which means that the remaining 0.5% is a follow-up error. This indicator should not be too large, because, in the end, it affects the profitability of the fund. If the fund deviates greatly from the index, the managers do not do their job well. ‼️How the price of an ETF is formed 🔴Shares in ETFs are called shares, they have a market and settlement price - iNAV. 🔴The estimated price is the value of all assets included in one share of the ETF. It can be viewed on the fund's website and the stock exchange. 🔴The market price depends on the supply and demand in the market and differs from the estimated price. It is not profitable for the Fund that the difference between them is too large, otherwise, investors will not buy shares. The market maker makes sure that the price on the stock exchange does not fluctuate much. He puts out large bids in a certain range. The current market price of the fund's shares can be viewed on the stock exchange or in the terminal. 🔴ETFs are a convenient and simple solution for investors who want to get "all in one". For example, they do not want to make a portfolio with their own hands or buy index assets separately. This tool is easy to buy and sell at any time. We can say that an ETF is trust management without red tape with documents and time limits. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
19
Does Gold Perform Better Than Other Assets in Times of InflationGold Price Against Inflation When the economy is experiencing inflation, investors often turn to gold to help protect their assets. This is because gold does not suffer from the same devaluation as paper money in times of inflation. But does it always perform better than other assets? We analyzed data to see if that was the case and found that it depends on what type of investment you’re looking at. For example, stocks generally do well in periods of inflation, while bonds perform poorly in these same cases. What is inflation? Inflation is defined as an increase in the overall price of goods and services. To better understand what this means, consider a loaf of bread. If it costs $2 to buy a loaf of bread today, but tomorrow that same loaf costs $2.50, there has been inflation because the price went up. What are the different types of investments? Investments are opportunities to save money and grow wealth. But what exactly is an investment? A traditional investment is a transaction between an investor and a company or individual. The investor provides capital in exchange for shares in the company’s stock, bonds, property, commodity futures, forex trading aand more. When deciding what type of investment you should make, there are many options (gold is just one). In addition, there are several types of assets, such as stocks or bonds. Each of these investments has its unique characteristics and risk levels. Does gold perform better than other assets in periods of inflation? Stock Vs Gold As you can see, not all investments are created equal. The performance of investments in periods of inflation will depend on the type of investment. For example, stocks and cryptocurrencies are likely to perform better in times of inflation, while bonds are likely to achieve worse in recent years. If you’re investing long-term, gold and stock can be your best option because their price is subject to fluctuations that can predict most of the time. However, if you’re looking for a short-term safety net, gold and cryptocurrencies might provide some stability that other investments lack. Regardless of what type of investment you choose, it’s essential to have an overall plan for managing your portfolio to align with your goals and risk tolerance. Does Gold Always Perform Better Than Other Assets? It depends. The answer to this question is complicated because it depends on the type of investment you’re looking at. In this post, we’ll explore the pros and cons of investing in gold during periods of inflation. Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset for investors worried about inflation. This is because it doesn’t suffer from devaluation like paper money does in periods of inflation. However, studies have found that stocks and cryptocurrencies do better in high inflation like gold. One study found that “gold’s performance worsens when inflation rises above 10%.” And another study found that “gold does not protect against loss as well as stocks or bonds.” So while gold can be a good investment during moderate inflation, it may not always perform better than other assets during periods of too-high inflation. What Is the Best Investment When Inflation is High? Inflation can have a significant impact on investment performance. In this piece, we’ll discuss the different types of investments and how they perform in periods of inflation. There are five main types of investments: stocks, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies, and cash equivalents. Each has a different risk level and potential for return. While there’s no guarantee that any investment will perform well during a period of inflation, stocks, in general, have been doing better in times of high inflation in recent years. This is because historically, they tend to rise in value faster than other investments in this situation. Bonds also increase in value during periods of high inflation, but their downside is much higher because they drop quicker when the economy is struggling with recession. Gold and cryptocurrencies have been rising during recent years. It’s because of higher inflation and global concerns about coronavirus and global trade deficits. But gold is more stable than cryptocurrencies. So you can easily predict the gold price, whether it is a bit hard to predict the cryptos. Cash equivalents typically stay at their same levels or fall when the economy enters a recession under periods of high inflation. This is because cash equivalents are less volatile than bonds and stocks due to their equivalence with money which never loses its value. What is the difference between stocks and bonds? If you’re thinking about investing in gold or other commodities to help protect your assets, you need to know where to put your money. Certain types of investments perform better than others, depending on the economic climate. For example, stocks generally do well when inflation is on the rise. That’s because investors are earning more for their money as prices rise. That means stocks often beat bonds in periods of inflation. Like during the Great Recession, stocks also tend to outperform bonds regarding high unemployment rates. On the other hand, Bonds don’t fare as well during periods of inflation and tend to perform better in cases of low unemployment. As far as gold investment goes, it does not always beat other investments like stocks and bonds. Gold performs worse than these investments during periods with low unemployment but performs better than them during periods of high unemployment—like during the Great Recession. So, while you are an investor, you must consider the global situations and growth. If you see covid pandemic is increasing unemployment rates, then it is better to invest in gold. On the other hand, if you see only inflation rising but not employment, I suggest you invest in stock and gold together. Gold vs. Stocks, Gold vs. Bonds Gold is often seen as a way to hedge against inflation. In high inflation, the value of gold and other hard assets will be higher than paper money and other investments. But do stocks and bonds perform similarly? We researched data on stocks and bonds to explore this, comparing them to gold. We found no general rule for performance: While some types of investments do well in periods of inflation, others do not. It largely depends on what kind of investment you’re considering. For example, stocks tend to perform better than bonds when there is inflation because they are less sensitive to changes in interest rates or monetary policy. Conversely, bonds are more susceptible to these factors, so they typically perform worse during times of inflation. But gold always does better in most cases. But when the inflation goes over 10% in those cases, gold can’t perform well like stocks. But we should be concerned about the stock market because most of the stocks have been running higher in recent years. Every company has its profit limitations and people demands. So anytime the stock market can collapse. The Better Inflation Hedge: Gold or Treasuries? Many investors look to gold to hedge against inflation, mainly because it doesn’t experience the same devaluation as paper currency. But does it consistently outperform other assets? The answer is no. It depends on what type of investment you’re looking at. For example, stocks generally do well in periods of inflation, while bonds perform poorly in these same cases. This is because bonds are primarily invested in fixed-income investment vehicles, which have historically done very poorly during periods of inflation. Treasuries are also not the best performance during periods of inflation; they tend to outperform stocks only when the rate of inflation stays below 5 percent for an extended period. Otherwise, their value will be eroded by inflation and the higher interest rates that accompany it. But don’t worry! Gold’s performance can vary depending on many factors like the period (long versus short), the country (G7 versus developing economies), and whether or not there’s a global recession. So let take a closer look at how gold may work as an asset during times of inflation: Real interest rates drop in the inflationary environment, and gold and stock price go up. This is because central banks try to quickly for loans and reinvest in the economy. Can Bitcoin Also Provide Hedge Against Inflation? Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that many people are now investing in, is often touted as a hedge against inflation. But does it always perform better than other assets? To find out, we analyzed data on four different types of investments: stocks, bonds, gold, and bitcoin. As you can see, each asset performs differently during periods of inflation. As you would expect, stocks do well in periods of inflation, while bonds perform poorly in these same cases. However, stocks typically outperform bonds because they’re less sensitive to changing interest rates. But what about gold and bitcoin? We found that gold fares better than stocks during periods of inflation (although not as well as bonds). Bitcoin performance depends on how people use it; if they use it solely as an investment, it performs well during deflation or inflation periods. On the other hand, if people are using it for transactions, then it performs poorly during periods of both types of economic instability. Conclusion Each asset has its unique characteristics. Therefore, investing depends on the environment, situation, global economic condition, inflation, and supply-demand. Such bond markets are not usually happening big moves. The gold market is again very stable; on the other hand, the stock market and cryptocurrencies doing quite well over the years. The crypto market is so volatile, many traders invest intraday in the hope of making a profit in a short time, and some investors stay away from investing in cryptos. Overall, the gold and stock markets are the best assets for investments when inflation rises. However, it has a definite boundary line, which should never be exceeded.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by Gold_Trading_Expert
GOLD - Facts to have a true sense of gold trading 🔥What is gold forex trading? Gold forex trading is the term used to talk about the ways you can gain exposure to gold via FX markets. Instead of buying and selling the precious metal, or speculating on its price using futures, you can trade it as a dollar-denominated currency pair or via gold-linked pairs. As historically gold was used as a currency, it’s not surprising that it’s still an internationally recognised part of the forex market. It trades under the currency code XAU. Trading gold in the forex market can be a great way for currency traders to get exposure to the commodity and diversify their portfolio. Its stability when compared to other assets during global crises means it’s a popular hedge against inflation. Often, the commodity gets a lot of attention around large market-moving events when investors get spooked and rush into the metal as a safe haven. For example, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, governments and traders started moving money into gold to protect against losses due to inflation. Can you trade gold on forex markets? Yes, you can trade gold on forex markets using the XAU/USD currency pair. This is the spot price of gold, which tells you how much 1 troy ounce of gold costs in US dollars. Alternatively, you can get exposure to gold prices by trading other currency pairs that have a correlation with the precious metal – these include the US dollar, Australian dollar, South African Rand and Swiss Franc. Gold and the US Dollar Traditionally, the relationship between gold and the US dollar has been an inverse correlation. As investor optimism has increased, money has flowed out of gold and into currencies, while periods of economic concern have created inflows into gold away from higher-risk assets (like FX). However, it’s important to note that the USD isn’t the only factor involved in gold’s pricing. This means that sometimes the correlation between gold and USD isn’t so straightforward and doesn’t always move 1 for 1. Especially as there have been instances of the US Dollar being considered a safe haven, due to its use as a global reserve currency, which has seen the asset classes move in tandem. Gold and the Australian Dollar Gold and the Australian Dollar have an extremely tight relationship due to Australia’s position as the third biggest gold producer in the world. It contributed about $5 billion worth of gold each year. As such, gold has a positive correlation with AUD/USD. When gold goes up, AUD/USD tends to go up. When gold goes down, AUD/USD tends to go down. In fact, studies found that a 1% increase in the nominal gold price led to a 0.5% appreciation of the AUD/USD nominal exchange rate. Gold and the South African Rand The South African Rand is often correlated with Gold as South Africa is a large exporter of gold. So, when the gold price goes up, it’s thought that the price of ZAR will rise too. This was particularly true when the Rand first entered circulation, but the correlation is still present as the precious metal represents about 15% of the country’s total exports. You could trade this correlation through the USD/ZAR pair, which would in theory have an inverse relationship to the gold price. Gold and the Swiss Franc The Swiss franc has traditionally moved in line with gold, given that more than 25% of Switzerland's money is backed by gold reserves. The Swiss Frac is a fairly common proxy for gold. We saw this relationship in full force in early 2020 following geopolitical tensions between the US and Middle East – gold rallied to around $1560 per troy ounce and the franc followed to trade at intraday highs of $1.03. So, in order to trade gold, you’d be looking at the negative correlation it has with the USD/CHF pair: when gold price goes up, USD/CHF goes down and vice versa. Gold forex risk factors There are a few factors you need to consider before you trade gold on forex markets: Liquidity – the ease to which you can enter positions can fluctuate throughout the day. However, the average daily trading volumes of gold pairs tend to exceed all currency pairs, excluding EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Supply and demand – like any market, when demand is up and supply is down, price rises, and if supply increases and demand drops, prices will fall. Half of the global demand for gold is driven by jewellery production, while another 40% comes from investors Market volatility – as we’ve mentioned, the volatility behind gold’s price is driven by its use as a safe haven. When other higher-risk assets aren’t performing, people move to gold. In contrast, when risk-on assets are strong, gold trading levels fall How to trade gold in forex To trade gold in forex, you need to go through a few quick steps: Open a City Index account or log in to an existing account Search for a currency pair in our platform Decide whether to go long or short on the price Enter your positions, attaching stops and limits as necessary Monitor and close your trade Not ready to trade live forex markets? Practise trading gold-linked currencies in a risk-free environment with a demo account. Can you day trade gold in forex? It is possible to day trade gold in forex, but it’ll depend on the market conditions at the time because gold is a relatively stable asset most of the time – until there’s a period of economic uncertainty and more volatility. As XAU/USD tends to trade in a range , reaching previous highs or lows over time, strategies that take advantage of these moves tend to be more popular. By identifying these buy and sell points you can, for example, open a position on gold when it’s trending up and target a known level of resistance as your sell price. Compared to day trading, this is a relatively low-risk strategy and not designed for quick profit but benefits from the more reliable XAU/USD price movement. Gold forex trading times Gold forex is a 24 hour market, but peak trading volume is usually found in New York trading hours, which are between 1pm to 10pm (UTC). Trading gold markets during peak activity will offer higher liquidity and lower volatility, making them good targets for safe-haven positions. Alternatively, trading gold in lower volume hours can mean less liquidity but provides the extra volatility needed to execute shorter-term strategies. hope best of luck to you guys
TVC:GOLDEducation
by GoldenEngine
4
HOW-TO: Cosmic Cloud #1📡 INDICATOR Cosmic Cloud 👩‍🏫 HOW-TO CONTENT This how-to shows that even price movement during major events like global market crashes adhere to the indicator levels. ✅ POINTS the price drop starts after reaching a resistance level (top-left chart) or the price drop is confirmed by a downward breakout from one of the support levels the 2020 stock market crash (👑) reaches its lows at various Cosmic Cloud supporting levels 🔔 USEFUL ALERTS Resistance Channel Re-entry ↓ Basis Test ↓↑ Support Channel Entry ↓
TVC:DJIEducation
by cosmic_indicators
HOW-TO: Cosmic Channel #1📡 INDICATOR Cosmic Channel 👩‍🏫 HOW-TO CONTENT This how-to covers the price breaking through all the support or resistance channels. This is a likely signal that the price is about to begin a volatile move in that direction. ✅ POINTS price breaking through all resistance channels (☝️) signals that a volatile bullish trend is about to begin price breaking through all support channels (👇) signals that a volatile bearish trend is about to begin 🔔 USEFUL ALERTS Resistance Channel Break ↑ Support Channel Break ↓
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by cosmic_indicators
GOLD TRADING GAUGE | EASY TO OBSERVEThe 'Why' Insight: The other way to keep your money is to put it in a savings account or into bonds that aren't very risky and will pay you interest. People who invest in gold lose money when interest rates go up because the yields on savings accounts and bonds also go up, which makes gold less appealing as a long-term investment. It is very important to look at the interest rate when you are trying to figure out how much gold is worth. Storage costs and insurance are two more things to think about. The price of the commodity will be the sum of all of these things. Thereafter, how the price moves depends on things like the movement of the US Dollar and things like demand and supply. Warning: This is the broader view, not the detail spesific method for entry.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TradingCocktail
RISK MANAGEMENT - WHAT WOULD YOU CHOOSE? 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑 Hi traders! Introduction - I was reading a few articles around risk management, the psychology off a successful trader & common mistakes traders who fail make. I stumbled across a concept which I thought resonated with me and made me really think about my psychology towards risk management and I thought I would share it with you. I hope this is just as fascinating to you as it was to me, and it has some intrinsic value to you. Why is risk management important in Trading? Trading in general can be regarded as a high-risk activity compared to not trading at all which would be regarded as having virtually no risk to any principal money you may have. For this reason, I would regard risk management to be the most important concept in any type off trading regardless off strategy, instrument & individual ability. Let’s look at the definition of risk management: “Risk management involves identifying, analyzing, accepting and/or mitigating trading decision uncertainty.” – Yahoo Finance To summaries we know trading is risky, therefore risk management is a tool to control that risk & staying in control is the most important thing that you must never forget. This is going to be the reason why the almost 90% of traders fail and why only 10% manage to achieve some sort off “success” from trading and its all to do with risk. Now I know for sure we can all think back to a time where we fell into this trap, but the important thing is learning from that lesson. 90% of traders will lose more on their losing trades than they win on their winning trades and that’s why they are not in the 10% of “successful” traders Understanding decision making from winning & losing Here’s the way it goes: Say I offered you a very simple wager and that wager was based on the flip of a coin. All you must do is predict whether the coin will land on heads or land on tails. The same principal activity off trading in its most basic form. Will price go up or will price go down? A simple 50/50 chance off being right regardless of what strategy you use right. Here comes the interesting part, the part that changes everything. The wager Say I decide to give you two choices, we will label these option A and option B. Now remember we already know what we’re doing is risky, but our aim is to maximize profit and minimize losing and put our money to work. Now thinking logically Option A is the one which maximizes our profit (which is our goal). That doesn’t make Option B wrong however as this option means you are guaranteed to make a profit you just aren’t maximizing what you could make. You will not be surprised that in this scenario then more than likely the most popular option is option B. Guaranteed profit with little to no risk. That’s a thumbs up from a risk management perspective. Here’s where I’ll highlight why 90% off traders fail. Let’s turn this scenario upside down and on its head and instead of talking making profit lets talk about making a loss. Now before I fully explain it lets put it into the concept of trading. Option A – A trade is going against you. Its about to hit your stop loss and you decide that you’re going to move your stop loss into further loss as there is the potential that you can get back to breakeven and you hate losing money. Option B – A trade is going against you again. Its about to hit your stop loss and you decide that you would rather take the guaranteed loss off -£400 rather than take the risk your loss could exceed. In the second scenario we all know that option B would be the most sensible option as it means we are managing our risk and staying in control of the situation. Remember as I said that’s the most important thing, stay in control. However unlike in scenario one where we are likely to choose option B when it comes to making money in scenario 2 when it comes to losing money, we seem to become risk driven and would rather roll the dice on losing more money for the chance to get out without losing anything at all rather than take the guaranteed risk. The scenario shows the reason I think traders lose more than they win and by understanding the simple concept you can give yourself the best possible chance of long-term success. Remember our goal is not to be right in forex, it is to make money. To make money we need to limit our risk and stay in control. The best way to combat this and to remove the emotional influence is to have predetermined targets. Know where you will get out of a trade; win or lose & don’t allow anything or anyone to influence that pre-determined decision. Hope this was insightful for you and thanks for reading! The Fx Chartist
Education
by TheFxChartist_
2
XAUUSD Wyckoff Accumulation - Don't get caught out!Illustrated above is a break out of an accumulation set up which should see gold recapturing the price levels it fell through last week. The immediate upside price objectives are 1802,1811 and 1828. Last weeks decline found preliminary support (PS) at 1794. This temporary relief is usually followed by what is known as a selling climax (SC) which took gold down to 1786. We saw first signs of exhaustion at this stage confirmed by the automatic rally (AR) back towards the preliminary support (PS) , before a secondary test (ST) saw price retracing back towards the climax lows. What follows next usually leaves an asset temporarily range-bound and is characterised by several rallies and secondary tests; the highest and lowest price points outlining the support and resistance levels for the range. An initial a sign of strength (SOS) signified that a bottom had occurred with buyers emerging. This was subsequently followed by another sell off which often breaks the selling climax (SC) lows briefly. A key indicator to look out for at this stage is volume. Lower volume than during the initial selling climax (SC) indicates a possible (Spring) with confirmation of the Spring being further strengthened by another attempted sell off to the last point of support (LPS) which witnesses price bouncing back off the support line identified during the earlier stages. From this point onwards, price is expected to retrace back up and break out of the range targeting previous levels of distribution. Whilst the longer term technicals and sentiment remain bearish, bulls have the near-term technical advantage. A daily close below 1785 will be required to change this near-term outlook. We can expect for gold to retest the 1828-1834 price level again. A successful break of this could lead bulls back up to the 1855-1860 level. I hope you found this useful, do leave your thoughts in a comment below. As always, a 'like' and 'follow' provides encouragement to share further ideas. Thank you for taking the time. BeyondEdge Your Edge Is Your Perception. Go Beyond.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by BeyondEdge
7
Correlation of Different Markets with Forex: CheatsheetOne of the biggest things you should understand as a trader is prices don’t just go up and down (well, maybe on a really small timeframe they’re more chaotic). They’re usually backed by some actions, data and things happening in other markets. This all creates general economic tendencies. But how do we know what affects dollar/currency pair and how? Well, here is a quick cheat sheet for that case. More importantly with an explanation of why. 😊 USD and Gold (negative) Investors prefer to abandon the dollar in favor of gold during times of economic uncertainty. Gold, unlike other assets, retains its inherent worth. Gold and NZD/USD (positive) New Zealand (number 25) is a major gold producer. Gold and AUD/USD (positive) Australia is the world's third-largest gold producer, exporting around $5 billion worth of gold each year. Gold and USD/CAD (negative) Canada is the world's fifth-largest gold producer. When the price of gold rises, the pair tends to fall (CAD is bought). Gold and USD/CHF (negative) Gold backs up more than a quarter of Switzerland's reserves. As gold prices rise, the pair falls (CHF is bought). Oil and USD/CAD (negative) Canada is one of the world's top five oil producers. It exports 5..5 million barrels of oil per day to the United States. As oil prices rise, the pair falls. Bond Yields and USD (positive) Higher bond returns attract greater investment to a country's economy. This makes its native currency more appealing than the currency of another economy, resulting in lower bond yields. Here it’s more about looking out for bond differences between countries. For instance, if bond difference between UK and United States goes down, this will cause GBPUSD fall as well. Gold and EURUSD (positive) Because gold and the euro are both considered "anti-dollars," if gold prices rise, the EUR/USD may rise as well. USD and Stock Market (depends on the market situation, mostly positive) So, here is a little weird one. Strong stock market is an indicator of a strong economy. So as company gets stronger -> stock price goes up -> attracting more international investors to step in, who have to get local currency in order to buy a local stock -> this cases dump of other currency in favor of the currency we’re intending to buy the stocks with (in our case USD). Seems easy? On the other side, people from the local economy dump their dollar/bond holdings to acquire more stocks weaking the currency itself. That’s why it’s a complicated love story. This correlation is quite different depending on the volumes for both cases. Enjoy, family! But keep in mind that these tendencies change to some extent as the world economy shifts/develops. Make sure to always stay updated and observe on your own.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Investroy
13
Commodities - What are they and how do they work?This article is continuation to the series of educational articles on basic fundamentals in regards to particular asset classes. If you have not read our previous article on stocks, feel welcome to do so: In order to read the article click on the chart above. Commodities are basic goods used in commerce that are interchangeable with other goods of the same type. They are usually refined or used for production of other goods. Commodities can be traded privately or on public market exchange where they must meet specified minimum standards like quality, weight, type, etc. They are great speculative investments which tend to be ruled by cycles and interaction between supply and demand. Classification of commodities In order to distinguish between particular characteristics of each group, commodities can be categorized according to their type and origin. Commodities that are mined or extracted are called hard commodities (oil, gold, silver, etc.) while commodities that are grown are called soft commodities (wheat, rice, livestock, etc.). Though, commodities can be sorted even further into smaller sub-categories. For example, metals can be divided into industrial metals (copper, nickel, iron, etc.) and precious metals (silver, gold and platinum). Additionally, the agricultural sector can be divided into livestock and grains; and the energy sector can be divided into oil, coal and natural gas. Other commodity sectors can be subcategorized in the similar fashion. Raw materials Primary commodities which are unprocessed and serve as input for production of other goods are also called raw materials. Raw materials involve, for example, crude oil, copper, iron, wheat and corn. Commodities exchanges include: Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) - Singapore Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) - United States Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - United States Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) - China London Metal Exchange (LME) - United Kingdom National Commodity Exchange Limited (NCEL) - United States New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) - United States Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGEX) - China Correlation Some commodities tend to show correlation with other assets. Such correlation can be positive or negative. Positive correlation means that two assets behave in a similar way. For example, when gold rises then mining stocks rise as well. Contrary to that, negative correlation describes such behavior in which assets move in the opposite direction to each other. For example, when USD/EUR rises then gold in USD tends to decline. Illustration 1.01 Illustration above shows the monthly chart of USOIL. It also shows USDEUR (orange line). Negative correlation between these two assets is observable. When USDEUR falls then USOIL tends to rise. Participants, spot market and derivatives market Commodities are great anti-inflationary assets which are often sought by producers and speculators alike. Producers tend to use commodities with purpose to hedge their risk; furthermore, they often demand delivery of physical goods. Speculators, instead, try to exploit volatile price movements in commodities with the goal to profit from it. Commodities can be bought and sold through the spot market or derivatives market. Spot market simply means buying or selling cash positions while derivatives market involves investing in futures, options, ETFs, etc. Seasonality Some commodities are prone to seasonal cycles which means that they tend to show the same or very similar behavior based on a particular calendar season. For example, in some countries, production of a certain crop may vary during the wet season and drought season. Similarly, heating prices tend to increase during the harsh winter as opposed to during the hot summer. Concept of seasonality is also applicable to commercial and industrial trends. DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Tradersweekly
7
How to win your continuations and avoid bad tradesHi, Those who follow me know that I only trade with pure price action and volume . If you are someone who also hates the subjectivity of indicators then you'd find this interesting. This is what I look for before taking continuation trades, keep in mind that what's important when you trade like that is the concept of weak high/lows and strong highs/lows. When you find those points all you have to do is trade with the trend then find the last point of supply/demand and take your entry. Hope this helps.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by MFX_Trading
1
How can I use this trading template? Today I will share a template that may be really helpful to understand some key concepts: First concept: Only look for setups IF the price has reached a major level. In this example, we can see a bearish movement that has reached a weekly level. Why is this relevant? Because if we are working with relevant levels that had worked in the past, we increase the chances of being right regarding an expected movement. Alright, does this mean that I should buy there? ABSOLUTELY NOT; let's go to the second concept Second concept: Once the price has reached a major level, wait for confirmations. Waiting for confirmations means that we have other levels to pay attention to that may provide us solid insights regarding what the price may do next; in this case, we have a descending trendline. A bearish trendline tells us this: Below the line, assume the bearish trend continues; above the line, assume that a possible change in direction may happen. Cool, now is time to buy, right? ABSOLUTELY NOT; let's go to the third concept Third concept: After the breakout of a major structure, WAIT for a correction Most of the time, we will tend to observe a correction after a big structure breakout. That type of behavior can be understood on this template after the breakout. There is a correction happening that we will generally be able to define inner waves; in this case, we have an ABC pattern. Corrections are our final confirmation before engaging with a setup. The position where we tend to observe corrections are in the following places: On the edge of the broken structure / Above the broken structure / On the first minor level after the breakout. Great information! Can I trade now? Yes, now we can define our setup, which takes us to the next concept. Fourth concept: After waiting for several confirmations, we can think about developing setups on the breakout of the corrective pattern (entering above B tends to be an excellent entry-level). Stop loss should always go BELOW C or, in other words, below the last local support zone. Take profit levels can be defined using the next relevant level we may have; these are not the minor levels; I'm speaking the next resistance zone with the same hierarchy as the support we started thinking on bullish opportunities. Fifth concept: This is a template mainly for Swing traders; that's why I wanted to show what to expect in the process between our execution and the take profit level. We may see one or multiple corrections on the way, most of them happening on minor levels. Of course, real trading is much more complex than this, but templates are a good way of understanding concepts and seeing how we can apply this to real market conditions. Another important item I want to highlight is that this type of system tends to have a win rate of around 50%. If we only engage with setups that provide a risk to reward ratio higher or equal than 2, then that's all you need to become profitable. Thanks for reading; if you have any doubts, drop them in the comments, and feel free to share your opinion on this.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
7