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MUST READ!! Best Trading/Investing books to Read!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Brett Steenbarger “Routine is necessary for efficiency; breaking routine is necessary for adaptation.” Trading/Investing books that I highly recommend. Some of them are listed below; 1. Brett Steenbarger's books 2 . Van Tharp's books 3. Pit bull 4. Millionaire Traders 5. Think and Grow rich 6. Trade mindfully 7. Emotional Intelligence 8. The power of habit 9. The art and science of TA 10. Alexander Elder's books 11. Mark Douglas Books 12. The way to trade 13. Mean market and lizard brains 14. When markets collide 15. When genius fail 16. As you think 17. The power of your subconscious mind 18. Dark pools 19. Way of the turtle This is a just a handful of books to get your started :) Happy Trading :) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :)
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
12
Gold Update: How To Be "Right" When You Are "Wrong"! Does that headline make you go "HUH"? How can you be right when you are wrong? Simple. I was wrong in my analysis as to what was to happen yet I was right because I went SHORT on Gold based on my "wrong" analysis. Got that? Actually, this happens many times to me and I'm very happy to admit that. You see, there's a method to that madness. Let me explain... I've been LONG Gold since Nov of last year. In fact, I already closed one long trade for good profits. And I still have another trade STILL LONG and still open. Yet, as you might see in the 1HR chart on the left side, I went SHORT on Gold just recently. Why did I do that? First, yes, you may look at that and say its a hedge but that's just perception. It is technically a hedge but the way I view these trades and in fact, ALL trades I take and send out, I treat each as SEPARATE trades each as its own trade. And I manage each trade on its own with no regards to the hedge. With that said, the reason I took the short trade is because my analysis on the overall trend move higher places it in a correction at this time but it should still continue higher after this correction is done. But when analyzing this correction, I identified a good SHORTING opportunity and took the trade. But back to my headline about being "right" yet being "wrong"... Here's one my analysis that I made and tweeted out where I took the SHORT trade: As you can see on the date on that chart that I tweeted this out 2 days ago and here's what I said: "Sell GOLD SHORT TERM trade. This trade for the wave y down. My LONG trade is still in play so this is a hedge but is a trade on its own same as the active LONG trade that is +650 in profit." So because of that analysis, which of course now we can see I was correct, I went SHORT. BUT, here is what I just tweeted yesterday as an update on this Gold correction: You can see the date on that chart was yesterday. I was projecting a complex flat with an ending triangle which is a very common wave 4 corrective structure. Well......as you can tell by the current chart above that this was WRONG! But still, that "WRONG" projection kept me in the SHORT trade and here we are....SHORT and in profit..... This happens more often than you know but it works well...IF you are willing to do the work! You see, when I analyze charts and possible trades, I always look at things several ways and look at ALTERNATIVE possibilities. And when those differing scenarios agree on the direction despite being different in their projections, then I have much more confidence in the trade I am taking. Hope this helps and inspires... For more info on Gold and other charts, just PM me.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
Generalized Moving Average Kernels A moving averages is a very simple concept that traders often take for granted and do not consider the inner mechanics of. In a very generalized sense a moving average for the last n periods is something that combines the past n values with unique weightings for each value. The real power of a moving average is in how those weightings are chosen. In a larger sense our choice of weightings is called a "kernel" or an "envelope". So if we consider a simple moving average all the weightings are the same, which means that our calculation equally considers past price action and current price action, this has a flat kernel. A weighted or linear moving average (wma) has a kernel that is shaped like a line and is decreasing as the distance from the current bar increases that takes the form of y = mx+b. This means that the weighting is higher for more recent bars and less for historic bars; increasing the slope (the value "m") of this will make this kernel more sensitive to recent bars than past bars. The exponential moving average (ema) is theoretically just like the wma but with an exponential term, aka y = ax^2 + mx + b. increasing the value of "a" will make the average exponentially more sensitive to recent price action than past bars. These are just 3 examples of the most common kernels. However the choice in kernels can be entirely your choice, and this is what I am presenting to the tradingview community. These methods are rather common in the field of signal processing and hopefully trading sometime soon. Here I have built 3 new kernels for everyone in an indicator I will release soon. 1. The generalized polynomial kernel (blue) Whereas the wma is defined by y = mx + b, the ema by y = ax^2 + mx + b, the generalized polynomial kernel can take in an eighth order polynomial as a kennel function: y = sum (rx ^ i) where i ranges from 0 to 8 and the user has 9 coefficients "r". To make a wma here one just sets the last 6 values of r to zero, or to make an ema the user sets the last 5 values of r to zero. If you are curious what shape your polynomial makes you can just plug it into wolfram or google to see it. This is the blue line on the chart above with all coefficients set to 1 by default. 2. The gaussian kernel (red) This option sets the moving average kernel to a gaussian. The important thing here to consider is where it is centered, and how broad it is. If the width of the gaussian is sufficiently larger than the moving average window size then you will start to approximate a simple moving average, however if the width of the gaussian is incredibly narrow you are basically sampling the bars from however long ago that your gaussian is centered, like creating an offset. If the centering is done closer to the recent bars then there is essentially a smooth drop off in weightings with a negative concavity. This is the red line on the chart. 3. The noise kernel (green) The idea of this one is simple, to just make a random kernel. Any value of the kernel can have a vastly different weight than the neighboring kernels. As tradingview has no random number generator I used a quasi random one that multiplies the unix time with the price and takes the sine function of that. For being totally random it also appears to be useful. This is the green line on the chart. The script for this will be coming soon, I just have to clean it up for everyone. Keep in mind that this indicator is not ready to just apply to the charts, it is designed for people to customize and mess with first. If anyone has any ideas to test with this I am incredibly interested to explore this deeper. I am using this general idea to move onto very interesting and potentially powerful applications, if anyone wants to talk about the technicalities of these please feel free to message me.
DJ:DJIEducation
by mcbw_
1
How to Get Financial Independence Without Money?This post is the result of a short discussion from the previous post. The question was: is it possible to get financial independence if you have only 10USD as a starting capital? My reply is - YES. Probably you won’t believe but still, let’s try to imagine such a story.You are a young guy without any solid capital, and only you have it’s 10USD in your pocket. But you are not lazy, and you are hardworking. For you, to put efforts into reaching your goal, it’s not a problem. You like to think and search for possible solutions. And you start with your 1st step which is in the right direction from the beginning! You know it because you are sure that knowledge is the basis for further steps and it will help to reach your goal. You start searching for possible variants and type of business which can give you financial independence. You understand that 10USD, it’s a really small capital for starting a real business, and you move to something more available for you. You get a reply very soon. You remembered that one of your friends told you about amazing opportunities which financial markets can open for you. He is an experienced trader and you believe him. It looks strange that 10USD as starting capital can open new doors but… you do research and EVRIKA! You find a solution. You get a broker-company (a company which provides services for trading in the financial markets) with a cents account where you can put several dollars and start trading on real money. You are smart, and you understand that without knowledge in this field, you have a good chance to lose this money and starting trading right now - it’s a stupid idea. You decide to learn more about trading in the financial markets. You ask your friend some bits of advice, you start searching for free stuff in Internet, you watch videos, and you read books which your friend shared with you (don’t forget you have only 10 USD and you can’t buy any book). You spend months for understanding how financial markets move, how to make analysis and search for possible trading opportunities. You learn about money management and trading psychology. You grow your skill day by day. You apply your new knowledge on practice using a demo account. You still don’t try to trade using real money because you understand that you will blow them very quickly. You got this knowledge from the experienced trader. You spend more months on learning and getting experience from demo trading. Only when you get a trading strategy which suits you and your nature when you designed a money management strategy which will protect your deposit from blowing up and help you to manage money properly for faster capital growing. You combine these strategies into a trading plan, and you are going to follow it day by day. You know how it’s important to have a trading plan with trading strategies and money management strategies, how to be disciplined and follow the plan day by day, your friend has solid experience as a trader and he shared with you this important advice. You follow your friend’s advices because you don’t have much experience yet. ONLY AFTER THAT, you decide to try real trading. You put your 10USD on a real cent account and start trading! You have a lot of emotions, but you also know how to control them. You have loss trades, and you don’t panic. You know that they are a part of profitable trading. You trade day by day following the trading plan. You control emotions and don’t try to become rich very quickly. Your friend helps you to improve different elements of trading and make your results better and trading more stable. Also, he advises you to keep records of your trades. He suggests to do it because, in the future, you will be able to show it to anyone for proving your skill and search for possible investors. You start doing it from the beginning because you trust the experienced trader. You know you made already a lot for moving closer to your goal and everything you need now, practice in trading for getting more and more experience and continue growing your skill learning new aspects of trading. You start trading like a PRO, and you like this style… In several years. You have spent several years from that day when you decided to try trading in the financial markets. You had only 10USD as a starting capital. You made a right step from the beginning in the direction of getting knowledge, and it allowed you to save this 10USD. You learned a lot from that moment, thanks to your friends who had experience in trading, thanks for your hard working! You believe that one day you will reach your goal - get financial independence. You knew what to do, and you moved step by step. You could grow your deposit in from 10USD into five times, and you think it’s an amazing profit in %. You kept the statistic of all your trades which shows now how good you are as a trader. And you know that now you are a good trader. You have everything for trading: the proven trading plan including the proven trading strategy and the solid money management strategy. Within several years you have made about 500% of profit, and it’s an amazing result. You could keep your money and have good drawdown during this period. Now you know that you are ready to move on the other level. Start working as a money manager. You know that investors search for good traders and you know what to offer them. You start promoting yourself as a trader. You get the 1st investor who gives you a trial deposit for managing. In several months the investor is impressed by your results and give you the solid capital for managing. You start getting solid income from such trading because the investor shares with you a part of profit. Now you trade using big capital, but you continue to use the same trading plan which was proved by previous years, you use the same trading strategy and money management strategy. They worked for you when you traded with 10USD and gave profit and they are also good with 100 000USD capital. After some time you get another investor who was also interested by your trading results. In several months the number of investors grows and the same goes about the size of capital you manage. Also, you grow your income from this activity. As investors get good profit, you get a part of this profit as rewards for managing. Day by day, you move to your main goal - get financial independence. Now you are not far at all. After some good period as a money manager, you can earn solid capital, it’s yours. You can start trading using this money, or you can continue money managing. Maybe you also want to share your knowledge and experience with novice traders or share your trading ideas for some financial websites. Now you have a lot of new opportunities which can give you a solid income and only you can decide which variants to use. All these things could become possible; all your dreams could come true only because you made your 1st step in the right direction. You decided to get knowledge and use it as a solid basis for further growth and moving to your goal!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by DLavrov
59
Would You Like to Get Financial Independence From Trading?Let's make this post for discussion and sharing your ideas, thoughts, and experience if you have, how to get financial independence from trading. Please, be active and take part in the discussion. Several days ago I posted polls in my social media to see, what do you think about financial independence. The main question was: "Would you like to get financial independence from trading?" with two options "YES" and "NO". And I was a little bit surprised by results. One audience replied like this: 87% - YES 13% - NO Another audience replied like this: 84% - YES 16% - NO So, I was surprised by 13% and 16% numbers. From my point of view, financial independence = Freedom. You can do what you want, spend your time as you want and be independent. You want to spend more time with your family - you can do this having financial independence! You want to travel - you can do it! You want to focus on your hobby - why not! Trading in the financial market allows to get financial independence much faster and with fewer efforts if compare it with real business - mainly. I respect all opinions, and if you think that you don't want to get financial independence, I will be very interested in understanding your position. Why don't you need this? Let's discuss it and also let's consider what do you need to do for reaching financial independence from your point of view. Please, share your ideas in comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by DLavrov
44
THE BIG EIGHT: Where is the world heading?In this screencast I review 8 important markets. There are some common levels and patterns of price movements. The India50 is the odd man (woman) out. The forecast of a global recession has been made (not by me). This is related largely to global debt now standing at around $233 TRILLION US-Dollars and debt in America currently around $22 Trillion US-Dollars. The picture is complicated by trade tensions, political and other macroeconomic events. Our inheritance is will be the result of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing (aka printing of money), now complicated by global geopolitical and macroeconomic issues. Stock markets (and related indices) have a complex but important relationship to the Forex markets.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NOW / VIDEO / EDUCATIONALHey TradingView In this video I will be going over a swing trade from this week and breaking down how this trade could impact a trader's psychology both positively and negatively. I also cover some easy to implement strategies that will make it much easier for you to let your winners run. It really bothers me how little attention seems to be devoted to trading psychology. This is by far the hardest thing for most traders to grasp and master. Please take a look at this video and let me know if it is able to help you.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ImreSG
2
SEISMIC: Solid Gold becomes easily electronically transferable. Yes - of course some will know about credit transfers of solid Gold. But the latest stuff is bigger! Some very clever people have found a way to transfer solid gold in more than just 'credit', by very robust electronic means. In other words wherever you are in the world you can ask for your solid gold and it will be sent to your hands! Ain't that crazy!? You can now buy stuff and pay in real Gold, using plastic! Ok so that part is like credit but it isn't. No longer is that totally linked to the US-Dollar value. So this is just like cryptocurrencies - but slightly better. In other words private individuals and some corporations are re-creating the 'Gold Standard' independently of governments and central banks. What does that mean? It means that the 'big boys' with the smart money have been ahead of the race. They spotted some time ago, to their minds that the US financial situation - which has been labelled as bankrupt (not by me), with an unprecedented Debt to GDP ratio of 105.4, and a total debt of $16 Trillion - is frankly dangerous. People have become drunk on credit. Personal credit allowances are all adding up into one massive tsunami - which nobody is really looking at.(Well except the big boys of course). Gold is has been connected to the US Dollar as we know it today. However, strangely currencies are no longer backed by Gold (since the 1970s). This has allowed the widespread printing of national currencies backed by thin air - and confidence in trade agreements etc. On top of all that, interest rates had been held near to zero in the USA for the last 10 years, and that's why there is such tension about The Federal Reserve (which is factually a bunch of private bankers), deciding to raise interest rates. They know a bubble has been created. In other words, the crisis of 2008 was not solved at all. It was papered over and made worse. Yes - it's taking time to pop. Sometimes real bubbles made of soapy water will touch a surface several times and not pop. But when they pop and when Ponzi schemes crash, it happens in the blink of an eye. If/when the financial bubble pops Gold will rule again. But it will be too late for the average investor to get on board. I'm not saying that everybody should rush out and buy Gold. What I'm saying is that sensible investors and traders need to get prepared now. In fact 'now' is a bit too late.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
The Learning Lesson From A 10% Profits TradeTrade Analysis Gold had been in the downtrend for 2 months. Lazy Trend System spotted a momentum entry. Following the rules, with 2% risk on capital, this trade yielded a profit of 10%. Risk to reward ratio = 1 to 3 3 Keys to Success: Patience The trade was executed on Daily chart, there are typically less than 10 potential entries in a calendar year. Swing trader always has to be patient, follow the system and trade when the opportunity appears. Risk Management Never risk more than 3% on one single trade! It takes more effort to recover big losses than to grow the portfolio. A proper risk management not just help to protect capital, but also to grow your trading portfolio consistently in the long run. A Good Trading System Having a good and consistent trading system is the key to succeed in trading for the long run. Test, test and test the system with your risk management till you are fully comfortable with it. Keep a journal of your trades, and always learn and review the historical trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by wealth_compass
Bitcoin v GoldI've been fascinated that the price of Bitcoin was recently hovering at about 3 times the price of Gold (before the recent set back). And now that Bitcoin seems at risk of dying, I'm wondering about its value in relation to its characteristics. So I decided to compare Bitcoin against Gold. I generated the above based only on my knowledge. I can't say that everything on this is 100% correct, or that my choice of words is lends to perfect accuracy. Most of the parameters and qualities of each are broadly correct, and for sure there will be pockets of exceptions. I'd be delighted to hear what others think about all this. Add any parameters I may have missed, in comments section. For the avoidance of doubt, I have not drawn any conclusions on which one is better. No conclusions are implied. This is not an encouragement to buy or sell cryptocurrencies of any kind.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
12
How to Trade in Traditional MarketsHello friends, thanks you very much for your interesting comments to my previous “Why Do You Like to Lose Money?” post. I’m happy to know that not all of you want to stay with status of “crypto enthusiastic trader” and you also want to use trading opportunities from traditional markets as well. It’s really good because if your REAL target is to make additional or the main income from trading, you MUST do logical things. They are simple: if the market does not give you good trading opportunities, you move to another. If it does, you come back. If your trading strategy does not work, you have to search for a new one and so on. Also, I understand that for you may be it’s not simple to move in a new direction. You started with crypto from zero knowledge about trading. You followed fake experts, got fake experience and learnt fake knowledge. The crypto world created a lot of fake things around it when there was a great hype for crypto and people could buy, follow and use any low quality “products” and “services”. Of course with this knowledge it’s rather difficult to think about making profit in the traditional markets. You can't expect every pattern to confirm and every indicator to be right - It does not work like that all the time. That bull market where everyone was always right is over now. Maybe there will be a new one, but until then, it's time to trade the right way. Because of the low quality knowledge and experience which you could get here and there from who knows what noob that thought he knows things because he got 5 charts right, you may have been pushed into a wrong trading workflow. Applying the same logic in the current situation and on real markets, every mistake will cost you money. So, what should you do? The 1st step you should start getting the right knowledge. For this you can read actually cool books from REAL legends with great experience and who are trusted by the financial community. I talk about legendary traders, investors who shared their knowledges, experience, trading strategies, tactics and tips in their books and courses. The 2nd step is, you have to think about your trading goals and create a Trading Plan. What is a trading plan and why you need it, I can write in further posts. Also I made a webinar for this topic. You must have your trading plan where you will write all your steps in the financial markets and tools which help you to reach your goals. The 3d step you have to find any workable trading strategy and start using it on demo accounts. Of course the best variant is when you design your personal trading strategy, but without good knowledge and experience it will be difficult to do. By using ready trading strategies from professional traders will give you more understanding of how to trade like a PRO. The 4th step is to create your personal risk and money management strategies. Based on the trading strategies results' you will be able to think about your comfortable risk level and how to manage your demo capital properly. Also, risk and money management strategies must be included in your Trading Plan. The 5th step - only here when you have everything in your arsenal like: Trading Plan, Trading Strategies tested in demo trading, Risk and Money Management Strategies, Knowledge and some Experience - ONLY AFTER THAT you can start real trading. Not at step 1. I insist! You can write down these 5 steps, and if you will tell me it will take much time and efforts for starting trading and it’s better to buy super profitable signals from crypto guru and become rich quickly... I will reply that these 5 steps are not perfect and it’s better to make 10 step in order to start from the beginning level and reach PRO level. These 5 steps are just a possible and logical road map if you decided to make stable profit in the financial markets. You will need several months for this, but opportunities which will be opened to you - they will surprise you. Also I need to add a very important idea to this post. WHY TRADITIONAL MARKETS ARE SO COOL! They have good infrastructure which can be used for automated trading. Crypto does not provide good terms for automated trading using the bots outside the raging bull market, but traditional markets are perfect for this. You have professional trading platforms which can be improved by new indicators and trading robots. You have opportunities to realize in code a great number of trading strategies. The robots can trade for you when you sleep, when you are at your work or when you have a vacation. You will need only to monitor their work time by time. Trading robots allow you to join the traditional financial markets even when you don’t have knowledge, experience, time and wish to improve yourself as a trader or investor. Trading robots can become a real alternative of that 5 steps, but it's better to have them as a complimentary system to your future trading based on real knowledge. I'll explain why: This direction of trading is also interesting for those who have experience, knowledge and tools and who trade in profit already. Trading robots allow to diversify your trading, they can be added in any portfolio. Using a combination of manual trading, automated trading with robots will make your trading more stable and probably more profitable in long run. Automated trading is a really good alternative for manual trading and if you want to learn more details about it, please write in comments. Also I will be able to write with more details why I think any crypto bot just a useless thing at this moment. Please, write in comments will it be interesting for you to know why I think so? Also, if you do not agree with me and you have other point of view, I will be glad to discuss with you in the comments - just don't be rude, there's no need for that. Thank you very much for your attention!
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by DLavrov
24
6 Things That Separate The Pro From The Amateur Trader!! Ben SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY 6 Elements of a Successful Trading Plan 1. Test The test is considered as the start-up element of the successful trading plan. It refers to the successfulness or failure of any currency involved. In most organisations, time is the primary driver for assessing execution. The assessment period is constructed with respect to the quantity of exchanges put and not by the measure of time passed. You should distinguish the correct number of exchanges for the assessment, however, this number should be sufficiently high that an individual has a nice example set, yet sufficiently low where it keeps you from going on a damaging exchanging. More elements will follow... Like, share, Comment and follow us to keep updated on our professional trading ideas and education :) Follow your trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning :)
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
1
Back Testing - Evaluating your Trading Strategy 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Back Testing - Evaluating your Trading Strategy 101 Backtesting of technical methods in light of past prices is the most popular testing strategy among technical traders.Below is a short list that will get you started; 1. How many trades does it generate? .............................................. 2. Whats the reliability of the system? ............................................... 3. How big is the average profit compared to the average loss? ............................................................................. 4. Many more.............. #Remember that you need enough data to create at least 30 trades in each test # Please let me know if you would like to know more :) Happy Trading "success occurs when opportunity meets preparation" Zig Ziglar
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
Money Management 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Money Management 101 Are you receiving a win-rate of more then 60% and still loosing money?? Money Management may be an area that you need to focus on. It is an essential element in becoming a professional trader. Listed below are 4 Simple Steps To Evaluate Your Financial Health; 1. Position Sizing A portfolio of $... and I decide to only risk 2% on a trading strategy 2. Capital - How much? A portfolio of $.... 3. Loss - How much? I must be right more then 50% of the time, but win more money on winning trades versus losing trades. I will use stops and limits to enforce a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher 4. Profits - What? A profit/loss ratio refers to the size of the average profit compares to the size of the average loss per trade. For example, if your expected profit is $1500 and your expected loss is $500, the P/L ratio is 3:1 Please let me know if you have any questions :) Happy Trading "The simpler it is, the better i like it" Peter Lynch
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
Trading Journal Basics 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Trading Journal Basics 101 During my trading career one of the most important elements of trading is keeping records of your trading performance. Whether its using an excel document or software such as the EDGEWONK TRADING JOURNAL, its crucial to see where you business has come from and where its going!! Below is a small detailed list of elements of a trading journal; 1. Date/time entered and exited trade 2. Asset traded 3. Long or short trade 4. Entry/ Stop loss and target price 5. Risk/Reward 6. Exit price. Did i exit at the target price? If not why? 7. Profit/Loss 9. Pips amount 10.Balance 11. Notes on trade ( both Pros and cons) 12. How can i improve next time? 13. Missed trades? 14. and many more.... Once again this is just a very basic list and there a lots more that can go into the journal. Note: Edgewonk is by far the best trading journal software that i have ever used. I highly recommend it and if you would like to know more please let me know :) Happy Trading
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader
1
Basic Technical Analysis 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Basic Technical Analysis Interpreting the candlestick This type of chart is an extension of the bar chart and is actively utilised by the investors in China for more than 500 years of time period. It helps in providing the information regarding open, close, low and high in the dimensional format. It can be seen that the vertical axis of the chart helps in providing information on the prices of the FOREX whereas the horizontal axis represents the time period. The green candles are the representation of the advances of the currency and the red candles, on the other hand, represents the decline in the value of the FOREX. Moreover, the body denotes the thick portion of the candle, and the vertical line represents the wick. This chart helps the investor to forecast the future price movement of the FOREX. Charting systems In the mind of a few people, charts are the exemplary image of the trader’s speciality. The experienced eye can make ups and down. Charting is a questionable piece of the fund. Future research is probably going to reveal things about outlining that would amaze people today. All things considered, even individuals who eagerly restrict the training are ought to be acquainted with the essential techniques of charting.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by SMPTrader
GOLD: A 3 Pack Of Possibilities. But All Have 1 Thing In CommonSo if you are looking at my charts/posts and are expecting me to give you a trade, then you shouldn't be following me. But if you are following me to LEARN something, then you are in the right place. There are plenty of posters here who give you actual trades. But as they say, "you get what you pay for". So here, what I am posting for you is an example of why it is that wave counting is not an "exact science" but rather much more of just each person's opinion. That has always been the argument against wave counting as a useful prediction tool. But in reality, out of all the so-called indicators, it is the only one that actually can "predict" what is going to happen. It is forward looking. Not just backward looking. That is why all the traditional indicators such as Moving Averages, RSI, Bollingers, MACD are all "lagging indicators" because they can only tell you what already happened. They are not used to project forward. And if you are using it that way, I'm sure you are not having much success. So back to wave counting. Wave counting is based on the "human factor". What is that you ask? Let me ask you, what moves the market? Is it the news? Economic factors? Geo-political happenings? If you thought any of those things are what moves the market, then I would argue that you are missing the point. The ONLY thing that moves prices in the market is the buying/selling action of traders. Simple. That is all. Unless you are into conspiracy theories that is. Which I'm not. And if you are, then don't trade. Because you can't beat whoever it is you think is manipulating things anyway! Back to the point though. It is the trading action of traders that moves prices. Whether that be a small trader like yourself or the multi-billion dollar hedge fund manager or the HST algos, the buy/sell orders is what moves prices. Not the news itself. The trader's REACTION to the news and subsequent action to buy or sell is what causes the markets to move during news events. NOT the news itself! So what causes the trader to react and place a trade? One thing: emotions. Specifically, FEAR & GREED. Fear causes traders to close out positions and Greed causes them to place orders be it buy or sell. This is what is called the "human factor". Why is this important and how does it relate to wave counting, you ask? This might get somewhat too into psychology for you but if you can understand the human mind, you can understand the market, why it moves, how it moves, and when it moves. You see, there is one indisputable fact....humans are creatures of habit. We tend to do things the same way over and over and over again. Even if that thing we are doing is detrimental and not helpful. We do it again and again. Wonder why you always lose? Take a good, hard look in the mirror and see if you are trading the same way over and over again. I guarantee you will find a pattern to your trading. And if you are losing and you keep following that pattern, you will continue to lose. Insanity = Doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results So back to wave counting....wave counting has been backtested ad infinitum. And the rules, laws and theories of wave counting are all based on repeating patterns over and over again. It has been found and proven that these repeating patterns exist and they work in definable, predictable waves. This is based on the what I just told you about humans....we are creatures of habit and do the same things over and over again and again. I already established that it is the trader's buying and selling that moves the market. And that buying and selling is based on human emotions and how we react to whatever the stimulus is whether its news or a technical pattern. Because most all the time, we will react in a predictable manner, that is what causes wave patterns to occur over and over and over again. Predictably. So back to my charts on Gold here. What you see are 3 possibilities of what the wave count could be as I see it. Some other wave counter may see something different. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, right? One of the major criticisms of wave counting is exactly this, that there are almost always several possible counts so how can you rely on it? My answer? I don't rely on any single count. What I do is always look at several possibilities and when they all match? Well, that is when there is a good trade to be had. Of course, there are other factors that I take into account in my overall analysis so no, I don't purely rely on wave counting but it is one of the main analytical tools I use. So Gold....as you can see, the one thing all 3 of these counts have in common is that eventually, Gold is pointing UP! Take that for what its worth! Want to know more about Gold and other commodities? PM me or look at my sig box below.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
7
Stocks, Dollars, and GoldContinuing my look at currency value (see ), here's several ways of looking at "How much is that asset worth?" The green/red price bars are the S&P 500 . The green line is M2 money velocity , one measure of value and dilution of the US dollar. It's basically how many times our GDP could "buy" our money supply . It's interesting to notice how public sentiment about national debt aligns with this index. I'm not taking a stance on that policy, just noticing that shortly after a presidential campaign made had the public up in arms about national debt, the value of money, as measured by M2V, rose, as did the market. Conversely, shortly after a later campaign that had the public up in arms about government surplus, that same measure went down. The hypothesis I'm trying on is, does money velocity--the ratio of money to goods--and everything that says about the value of US Dollars correlate with trend changes in the equity markets? The market dip that started in late 2000 would put equity investors entering at that time in a loss they wouldn't recoup, if they stayed in the markets, until mid 2007. By that time, money velocity had been trending down for over a year, and very quickly the market dipped again, causing losses that a long-term position wouldn't recover until Q1 2013. So far, M2V seems a fair predictor of market turns, but this doesn't hold true after the 2008 crash of the housing and mortgage bubble. Money velocity continues down, but the market takes off. Some would argue that a bigger crash is setting up; others, that the correlation is meaningless. What's a safe investor to do? How about gold? I've added gold as the yellow line in the chart. This isn't the actual price (spot price) of gold, because I couldn't find that symbol on TradingView. Instead it's the nearest contract, the price traders think gold will have in the near future. I add gold to the chart because it's often seen as a safe haven against market and currency crashes, and because gold maven Adam Baratta writes about the sort of money supply issues I've written about in his 2018 book, Gold is a Better Way . It's an interesting (and very bearish) look at the equity and debt markets--just remember it's written by someone who sells gold and whose final words in the last chapter of his latest book are, in bold, "Buy Gold Now." What I'm asking myself is, if I've got a lot of retirement savings in equities and I'm getting nervous about the stock market, how do I play it safe for awhile? Notice how gold did better than the SP500 during the latest crashes. That sounds promising...until you look at how it also trended positively with stocks during their recoveries. If you're looking for a non-correlated asset, this doesn't look like it. Instead it looks like a way to miss out on whatever benefits current fiscal policy and market bias are giving--note how gold missed out on the S&P's gains once it was back at pre-2008 levels.
SP:SPXEducation
by bradobro
Gold, GDX & GLD: Correlated Markets Lead To BIG Profits! If you trade Gold, you must know that the GDX and the GLD are both derivative markets of Gold and are closely correlated since they both track aspects of Gold. So when either one of these move, then you must look to the other one's and see what they are doing, going to do or done already. They can give you precious clues as to what the other markets are going to do. In most cases, GDX and GLD are forward indicators of Gold itself. Why do I point this out? Well, what you see in my charts is my analysis of these 3 markets and you can see that they are all closely mimic each other. Now, I follow the mantra of "Trade what you see. Not what you think". That means I look at each chart by itself and not dependent on what any other chart is doing or projected to do. But when I analyze Gold, I also do look to GDX and GLD as well and see if my independent analysis of those markets agree with what I see in Gold. But VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that NO MARKET correlate 1:1 to any other market. What that means is that Gold can move 100 pips while GDX might only move 25 pts. In any case, I'm showing you these trades that I took and issued out to my followers to illustrate this point. Just a tip for you the next time you decide to trade in Gold. Want to know more? Look below to my signature box or PM me.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
3
Figuring out approximate trading volumes....All data about CME futures is available on their site. Same with ICE, same with the euro indices future exchange(s). For the rest I hunted around the internet and tried finding several sources that said the same and made sure it made sense. ***** Currencies ****** All the forex pairs: I do not really know, but the volume is huge don't worry. EURUSD alone is maybe 1 trillion, the big minors a couple hundred billions . Instant fills low spreads etc. ***** Gold and Black Gold ***** Gold: CME futures volume are around 30 billion US dollars. But the biggest volume comes from the biggest financial center in the world: the city in London. Cannot tell exactly, but the average daily volume is around 150-250 billions dollars. There is probably just a few dozen bil elsewhere. So in total we can say we are in the area of 200 billion usd. Oil (WTI only): Looking at Nov contracts only, ICE + CME = Over 50 billion usd . So it is big. ***** Indices ***** DJIA: On the CME, E-mini Dow contracts get traded with a volume of a little over 150.000 contracts a day. Which means in usd terms 150k * 5 * 26666 = 20 billion. DAX: On www.eurexchange.com The dax futures for december got traded for a volume of 85,000. A future represents 25 euros per point, so I suppose 25 * 12250 (just like CME they are too stupid to give the volume in euro or dollar). So... 25 billion euros ? Or more? Plus the other contracts. Whatever it is getting on my nerves. It is big this is what matters. Really volatile good to trade. Top tier with EUR/USD. Probably the best indice to trade. S&P 500: Cannot tell, but on the CME the E-mini S&P 500 200 billion us dollar ermaghad. I knew it was popular. E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Future: 50 billion us dollar. FTSE 100 Index Future : 6 billion £. About 8 billion usd. I have to run backtesting on this chart a bit, I am not sure I really like it. Don't know well. CAC40 INDEX FUTURE : 5 billion euros. I do not really like that chart, and volume not that great compared to the really big ones. Euro Stoxx 50 Future : 30 billion euros. I do not care about the east asia indices, they move at night for me. I would have liked to trade the nikkei and CHN a share indice, but nevermind. ***** Bonds ***** Some are good, but I am just not interested. FX + a few indices + Gold + Oil is enough I do not want to be too much of a jack of all trades. So I am not checking the volumes. US10YR got a volume of over 100 billions thought. ***** Now, for the filth ***** Soybean futures: 5 billion usd for november contract. Wanted to trade this because that's what Jim Simons traded when he started XD But I do not like the chart this much. Screw it. Might be a good niche thing idk. High grade copper: 6 billion usd . Chart seems ok, but I am not sure. Plus spread is a little high for chasing small moves. It is not very much correlated to Gold. Bitcoin: According to coinmarketcap the volume is 4 billion usd (without Korea but they do not add that much). I wonder how much of this is wash trading also. Chart is really really bad. Objectively, I simply can not recommend trading this. Could be a niche, but 50 times more people are interested in Bitcoin that EUR/USD what a niche! It is sideways all the time, but word on the street most traders are range traders that "buy low oversold but sell high overbought" and fail over and over, according to some people I do not know I can trust that say they looked at a broker data. Here you have it. The really big stuff representing the world economy with huge volume is going to be a dozen forex pairs, gold, oil, bonds, big indices, and that's it. of course they all have very large volumes. Personally the really big volume ones are my favorite. I do not think volume is the sole reason but maybe I am delusional and that is the only reason? But I knew about and sometimes looked at the Dow Jones when I was a kid I did not even know you could buy and sell the stuff. It is there since the 19th century and I always like that one. CAC40 I heard about all the time on the french radio/tv. Of course one can do anything, trading tiny penny stock (there is a strategy that consists of shorting pump and dump as they fall), or trading orange juice, why not. Usually the niche stuff is more for people that work in that area or know it well, right?
Education
by MrRenev
Best intruments to short term trade: Looking at the spreads.Howdi fearless gamblers. Today/Tonight/Yesterday I want to post about spreads. I have spend some time calculating them, so I thought, why not share? It does not cost me anything and it has value to you. In what is best to short term trade, this is what you must look at (correct me if I am wrong): - The volatility: if it does not move you are not going to get anything out of it. - When are we open? Does it fit your time schedule? - Your personal preference. - The spreads: if you aim for 1% moves and 0.3% is going to the broker, you won't get very far... Of course, this is not very important for anyone holding trades over periods of several days or weeks. So this is what I have: Currencies All calculated with FXCM, it is around the same everywhere (decent). *** USD pairs *** --- Tier 1 --- EURUSD => 0,010% USDJPY => 0,010% GBPUSD => 0,011% --- Tier 2 --- USDCAD => 0,017% USDCHF => 0,017% USDMXN => 0,017% --- Tier 3 --- AUDUSD => 0,023% --- Tier no thank you --- NZDUSD => 0,027% USDSEK => 0,031% --- God Tier --- USDCNH => < 0,0075% *** Cross pairs *** --- Tier 2 --- EURJPY => 0,016% GBPJPY => 0,018% EURCAD => 0,018% EURNZD => 0,020% EURAUD => 0,015% EURCHF => 0,019% --- Tier 3 --- GBPAUD => 0,022% GBPCAD => 0,022% --- Tier no thank you --- AUDCAD => 0,027% GBPNZD => 0,025% EURGBP => 0,024% AUDJPY => 0,026% AUDNZD => 0,032% CHFJPY => 0,022% GBPCHF => 0,027% --- Tier lol dis a joke man? --- NZDCAD => > 0,045% The Forex moves I look at that happen in a few hours to maybe 2 days are 0.30% 0.50% 0.75% 1%. A spread of 0.03% is 10% of that 0.30% move. Futures --- Tier 1 --- Gold => 0,03% Moves twice as much as FX --- Tier 2 --- Copper => 0,11% Moves 3 times as much as gold, 6 times FX. Oil => 0,07% Moves a little more than gold I think? Maybe 1,5-twice as much. --- Tier lol dis a joke man? --- Silver => 0,30% TOO DAMN HIGH NatGas => 0,33% Moves alot, but still too high. Cryptocurrencies The volatility at the time is non existant for crypto but it will change so I am looking at it anyway, for the day this changes (I get spammed with alerts every day for FX and see moves over and over and over, crypto? Something I might see 30 times a month with FX I might see once a time with crypto. Just look at the charts.) So usually the commissions are the same for all, on Binance without BNB it is 0.1%. Crypto moves are 3% 5% 7.5% 10% etc (with bigger risk thought). On Kraken it is going to be more or less the same as Binance, it depends on your volume. On Bittrex Polo etc it is higher (unless it changed). If you are taker you got higher fees + a little spread. So if it moves 10 times as much as FX (when it moves I mean), you dive 1% by 10, BUT remember you will pay it twice (go long and take profit). So 0.2% / 10 = 0.02% Which places Crypto between Tier 2 and Tier 3. Same as a GBP pair or Copper. Copper moves as much as Bitcoin too or almost as. Pretty much you can trade either and have the same experience minus the sideways and armies of bagholders telling you what a fool you are for not accumulating with Copper. Indices I do not have the values with me but alot are super low, with DAX the lowest and NASDAQ second, maybe the euro thing too. The big indices are tier 1. UK and French ones I think are tier 1 too. The surprise for alot of people would be that Dollar vs Yuan is the one with the lowest spread. Every one is talking about how many pounds per pip and how many pips they take because they are obssessed with how much money they will make and really bad at math. That is not what matters. What matters is USDCNH has the lowest spread and is the most profitable thing to trade in the whole universe if everything else is equal. * It depends WHEN you look at USDCNH thought... At the time, I am fully focussed on trading FX perfectly before I move back to anything else. I only trade the tier 1 to 3 as well of course, as the mighty USDYUAN. So this is my watchlist and what I am trading at the moment, 16 of them: FX:EURUSD,FX:USDJPY,FX:AUDUSD,FX:USDCAD,FX:GBPUSD,FX:USDCHF,FX:USDMXN,FX:USDCNH,FX:EURJPY,FX:GBPJPY,FX:EURCAD,FX:GBPAUD,FX:GBPCAD,FX:EURNZD,FX:EURAUD,FX:EURCHF I really want to trade gold and copper again, but for now I am focussed on perfecting a new strategy (I already had one before but I wanted to master a new one... I cannot help it I am too competitive...). Then I will add Futures again, and then go look at crypto, which might have stopped being unbearably pointless by then. I think we get a mighty dump in the next weeks, but that will not mean the volatility is back, just a mighty dump a sharp bounce, and then back to boredom for months or even years. I am not interested in looking at stocks. Open a few hours a day with only the first and last hours being worth spending time on? Haha no than you! I would rather do macro economics and trade indices. I cannot be bothered with the latest FOMO news and this mighty stock that will make idiots millionaires GUARENTEED.
Education
by MrRenev
1