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Trend Analysis

Trendline Liquidity Grabbing – Smart Money Tactics!🚀 What Just Happened? A trendline was respected multiple times, creating a strong support level. However, instead of bouncing immediately, price broke below the trendline, grabbing liquidity before reversing with strong momentum! 🔍 Why Does This Happen? 📌 Retail Trap: Many traders place buy orders at the trendline and stop losses just below. Smart money hunts these stops to accumulate liquidity. 📌 Fake Breakout: The price temporarily dips below to trigger stop losses & weak hands before the real move begins. 📌 Confirmation Reversal: After liquidity is taken, strong buying pressure pushes the price back up! 📊 Lesson for Traders: ✅ Don't panic when a trendline breaks—watch for liquidity grabs! ✅ Wait for confirmation before entering trades. ✅ Use this as a sniper entry strategy for high RR trades. 🔥 Master this, and you'll stop falling for fake breakouts! 💰
Education
by RajaSaien
10 Technical Indicators Every Trader Uses for Trading10 Technical Indicators Every Trader Uses for Trading Technical analysis indicators are essential tools for traders to analyse every aspect of market movements, including market trends, momentum, volume, and volatility. This article explores ten key technical indicators you could add to your toolkit. Read detailing definitions, uses, and the signals they provide to potentially enhance trading strategies. To get started with these indicators, head over to FXOpen. Ichimoku Cloud The Ichimoku Cloud, also known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, is a comprehensive technical analysis tool designed to provide a clear picture of market trends, momentum, and support and resistance levels. Considered one of the best stock market indicators, this Japanese tool is widely used for its ability to offer a panoramic view of the market. Definition The Ichimoku Cloud comprises five main components: - Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): The average of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 9 periods. - Kijun-sen (Base Line): The average of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 periods. - Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): The average of the Tenkan-sen/Conversion Line and Kijun-sen/Base Line, offset by 26 periods ahead. - Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): The average of the highest high and lowest low over the past 52 periods, plotted 26 periods ahead. - Chikou Span (Lagging Span): The most recent closing price positioned 26 periods behind. These components create the "Kumo" or cloud, which projects future support and resistance levels. Signals 1. TK Cross: - Bullish Signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen above the Kumo. - Bearish Signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen below the Kumo. 2. Kumo Breakout: - Bullish Signal: Price breaks above the Kumo. - Bearish Signal: Price breaks below the Kumo. 3. Chikou Span Confirmation: - Bullish Signal: Chikou Span is above the price and Kumo. - Bearish Signal: Chikou Span is below the price and Kumo. 4. Kumo Twist: - Indicates a potential trend reversal when the cloud changes colour (from red to green for bullish, green to red for bearish). For cryptocurrency* trading, the standard settings (9, 26, 52) are often adjusted to 20, 60, 120 to accommodate the 24/7 trading cycle. More details on using Ichimoku in crypto* markets can be found on the FXOpen dedicated page​. Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci retracements are a technical tool that helps traders identify potential areas of support and resistance in a given market. This method is based on the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones. In trading, key Fibonacci levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, which are used to analyse potential reversal points. Definition Fibonacci retracements are widely used stock chart indicators that help traders determine where the price might reverse during a correction in a prevailing trend. The tool involves plotting horizontal lines at these key levels, calculated from a significant high to a significant low when the price corrects after a strong downward movement or from a significant low to a significant high when the price corrects after a strong upward movement. Signals 1. Support and Resistance Levels: - 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Levels: These are the primary retracement levels where the price is likely to reverse. 2. Trend Identification: - Uptrend: Place the tool from a swing low to a swing high. - Downtrend: Place the tool from a swing high to a swing low. 3. Trade Setup: - Entry Points: Traders often look for the price to reach and react at these levels before entering a trade. - Stop Loss: Typically set just beyond the nearest Fibonacci level the price targets. - Take Profit: Targets are often placed at the next Fibonacci level. For cryptocurrency* trading, settings may vary. We provide a detailed explanation on using Fibonacci retracements in crypto markets with adjustments to fit this unique trading environment​. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a technical indicator that provides the average price an asset has traded at throughout a particular period (usually one day), weighted by volume. It offers a more comprehensive view than simple moving averages by incorporating both price and volume data and is considered one of the best intraday trading indicators. Calculation VWAP is calculated using the formula: - VWAP = Sum(Typical Price * Volume) / SumVolume, where Typical Price is the average of the high, low, and close prices for each period. Signals 1. Assessing Fair Value: A price above VWAP indicates overvaluation, while a price below suggests undervaluation. 2. Market Sentiment and Trends: - Bullish Trend: Price above VWAP. - Bearish Trend: Price below VWAP. 3. Support and Resistance Levels: - Support: VWAP acts as support in a bullish market. - Resistance: VWAP acts as resistance in a bearish market. 4. Entry Quality: - Entry near VWAP suggests buying or selling at a reasonable market value. For cryptocurrency* trading, the VWAP settings remain similar to traditional markets, but the tool's application may vary due to the 24/7 nature of crypto* trading. Check out FXOpen’s page on how to use VWAP in crypto markets for more information. Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (A/D) The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator is a volume-based tool that assesses the cumulative flow of money into and out of an asset. It’s widely used as an indicator for day trading. It helps traders determine the underlying buying and selling pressure, making it one of the valuable forex and stock indicators for analysing potential price trends and reversals. Calculation The A/D indicator calculates the Money Flow Multiplier (MFM), which ranges from -1 to 1 based on the closing price's position within the period’s high-low range. If the closing price is in the upper half, the MFM is positive; if in the lower half, it is negative. This multiplier is then multiplied by the period’s volume to get the Money Flow Volume (MFV). The A/D line represents the cumulative sum of these MFVs over time, reflecting net volume flow. Signals Identifying Reversals: - Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows while the A/D line makes higher lows, indicating waning selling pressure and a potential price increase. - Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs while the A/D line makes lower highs, suggesting decreasing buying pressure and a possible price decline. Trend Confirmation: - Uptrend: Both price and A/D line rise, indicating sustained buying pressure. - Downtrend: Both price and A/D line fall, showing continuous selling pressure. Trading Breakouts: - The A/D indicator can confirm breakouts beyond support or resistance levels. A breakout in price aligned with a similar movement in the A/D line signals the start of a new trend. Average True Range (ATR) The Average True Range (ATR) is a technical tool used to measure market volatility. It reflects the degree of price movement over a specified period, helping traders understand the level of volatility in an asset. Calculation ATR calculation includes several steps. Find more details in our article. Signals ATR does not indicate the price direction but rather the degree of price movement. Traders use ATR to make informed decisions about stop-loss levels and to gauge the potential for market moves. It’s one of the popular day trading indicators. 1. Volatility Measurement: - A high ATR value indicates high volatility, while a low ATR suggests low volatility. This helps traders adjust their strategies based on market conditions. 2. Setting Stop-Loss Levels: - Traders often set stop-loss orders at a multiple of the ATR value. For instance, a stop loss might be placed at twice the ATR below the entry price in a long position to account for volatility and reduce the risk of being stopped out prematurely. 3. Identifying Potential Breakouts: - Sudden increases in ATR values can indicate the start of a new trend or a significant price move, alerting traders to potential trading opportunities. Donchian Channel Indicator The Donchian Channel is a technical analysis tool designed to identify volatility, market trends, price reversals, and potential breakout points. It consists of three lines based on the highest high and lowest low over a specified period, typically 20 periods. Definition - Upper Boundary: The highest high over N periods. - Lower Boundary: The lowest low over N periods. - Middle Line: The average of the upper and lower boundaries. These lines help traders determine market volatility and identify potential buy and sell signals based on price movements. Signals 1. Tracking Volatility: - Widening Channel: Indicates high volatility. - Narrowing Channel: Indicates low volatility. 2. Identifying Trends: - Bullish Trend: The upper boundary rises while the lower boundary stays flat. - Bearish Trend: The lower boundary falls while the upper boundary stays flat. 3. Trading Breakouts: - Above Middle Line: Potential bullish signal. - Below Middle Line: Potential bearish signal. 4. Trading Reversals: - In range-bound markets, the upper boundary acts as resistance and the lower boundary as support, guiding traders to close or open positions accordingly. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a volume-weighted average indicator measuring the buying and selling pressure on an asset over a specific period, typically 20 or 21 periods. It combines price and volume data to provide insights into market sentiment and potential price movements, making it one of the key forex and stock market technical indicators. Calculation The CMF calculation involves three main steps: - Money Flow Multiplier (MFM): (Close - Low) - (High - Close) / High - Low. This value ranges from -1 to 1 and is positive when the closing price is in the upper half of the period's range and negative when in the lower half. - Money Flow Volume (MFV): Calculated by multiplying the MFM by the period's volume. - CMF Value: The sum of MFVs over the period divided by the sum of volumes over the same period. The resulting CMF values fluctuate between -1 and +1, providing a visual representation of money flow into and out of the asset. Signals 1. Trend Strength: - Positive CMF: Indicates buying pressure, suggesting a bullish trend. - Negative CMF: Indicates selling pressure, suggesting a bearish trend. 2. Trend Reversal: - Bullish Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower lows, but the CMF makes higher lows, indicating a potential reversal to the upside. - Bearish Divergence: Occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the CMF makes lower highs, indicating a potential reversal to the downside. 3. Breakout Confirmation: - A breakout in price above/below a key level accompanied by a breakout in the CMF value above/below previous highs/lows can confirm the strength of the move. Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is an indicator traders apply on a chart to measure the strength of a trend. It is particularly useful for traders who want to determine whether a market is trending or ranging. Definition The ADX consists of a single line that fluctuates between 0 and 100. It does not indicate the direction of the trend but rather its strength. The standard ADX setting is a 14-period, but this can be adjusted to suit different trading styles. - 0-25: Indicates a weak or non-existent trend. - 25-50: Signals a strong trend. - 50-75: Suggests a very strong trend. - 75-100: Reflects an extremely strong trend. Signals 1. Trend Strength: - A rising ADX value above 25 indicates a strengthening trend, regardless of whether it is bullish or bearish. - A falling ADX below 25 suggests a weakening trend or a ranging market. 2. Trend Momentum: - When ADX peaks and starts to decline, it can signal a potential weakening of the current trend, indicating that traders might consider closing or reducing positions. Combining ADX with DI Lines The ADX is often used in conjunction with the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) and Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) lines: - +DI > -DI: Suggests a bullish trend. - -DI > +DI: Indicates a bearish trend. A rising ADX alongside these signals confirms the strength of the current trend. Traders use this indicator to enter trades. For this, they look for ADX to rise above 25 to confirm the beginning of a strong trend before entering trades in the direction of the trend indicated by the +DI and -DI lines. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum-based indicator that measures the deviation of an asset's price from its historical average. It helps traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions, trend reversals, and divergence signals. Calculation - CCI is calculated using the formula: CCI = (Typical Price − SMA) / 0.015 * Mean Deviation, where: - Typical Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3 - SMA = Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price - Mean Deviation = Average of the absolute differences between the Typical Price and its SMA The constant 0.015 normalises the CCI values, ensuring that approximately 70-80% of the values fall between -100 and +100. Signals 1. Overbought and Oversold Conditions: - Above +100: Indicates the asset is overbought, suggesting a potential price pullback or a downward reversal. - Below -100: Indicates the asset is oversold, suggesting a potential pullback or an upward reversal. 2. Trend Reversals: - Bullish Divergence: When the market is making lower lows while the CCI makes higher lows, potentially preceding a bullish reversal. - Bearish Divergence: When the market is making higher highs while the CCI makes lower highs, potentially preceding a bullish reversal. 3. Trade Entries: - Traders consider entering long positions when CCI breaks above -100 from below. - Conversely, traders might enter short positions when CCI moves below +100 from above. Keltner Channel The Keltner Channel is a popular technical analysis tool used to determine market trends, price volatility, and potential reversal points. It consists of three lines: an exponential moving average (EMA) in the middle, and upper and lower bands calculated by adding and subtracting a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR) to the EMA. Definition The standard settings for Keltner Channels typically use a 20-period EMA and an ATR multiplier of 2. These settings can be adjusted to suit different trading styles and timeframes, making Keltner Channels effective technical indicators for day trading. The EMA provides a smoothed average price, while the ATR measures volatility. The bands expand and contract based on market volatility, creating a channel around the price. Signals 1. Trend Identification: - Upward-Sloping Channel: Indicates a bullish trend. - Downward-Sloping Channel: Indicates a bearish trend. - Flat Channel: Suggests a ranging market. 2. Dynamic Support and Resistance: - The upper and lower bands of the Channels serve as dynamic levels of support and resistance. Price action within these bands can help traders identify potential entry and exit points. 3. Breakout Signals: - Bullish Breakout: Price closing above the upper band. - Bearish Breakout: Price closing below the lower band. The Bottom Line These ten technical indicators could be added to your toolkit to potentially enhance your trading strategies. By understanding their signals and applications, traders can better navigate the worlds of forex, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. Open an FXOpen account today to access advanced trading tools and start implementing these indicators in live markets. FAQs Which Types of Trading Indicators Are Common to Use? 4 common types of technical indicators include trend (Moving Averages, ADX), momentum (RSI, Stochastic Oscillator), volume (On-Balance Volume, VWAP), and volatility (Bollinger Bands, ATR) indicators. These help traders analyse trends, momentum, volume, and volatility​. How Many Indicators Should a Trader Use? Traders often use 2-3 indicators to avoid overcomplication and conflicting signals. Combining different types of indicators can provide a more comprehensive analysis​. Why Do Indicators Fail? Indicators can fail due to market volatility, news events, and their inherent lag. They may also produce false signals in choppy markets. Combining indicators with risk management can potentially improve reliability. Is It Better to Trade Without Indicators? Trading without indicators, known as price action trading, can be effective for experienced traders. However, using a few indicators can provide valuable insights and confirm price movements for most traders​. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
VARAUSD - How to Find Accurate Pivot Levels For Swing TradesI'm using VARAUSD for this tutorial presentation because that is the coin I am currently trading. In this tutorial I demonstrate how to locate nearly exact pivot points for great entry and exit opportunities to swing trade like a professional. Just remember, the levels need to be updated often. You cannot set them and forget them. Something I did not mention is that order walls MOVE and they move ALOT especially during an active pump or dump. Investors choose to pull order walls deciding not to sell in which case the price will continue up beyond that resistance area. In this regard, update your levels OFTEN. VARA is in a massive squeeze / range bound trading with accurate pivot points can lead to easy wins however, neglect your levels and get left behind!
COINBASE:SWELLUSDEducation
by fritbjorn
1
What I think trading is... Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- Thank you @TradingBrokersView for the great article. 🚨 Bitcoin update! 🚨 BTC rejected at MA50 (4h) inside a Channel Down pattern. If history repeats, we could see a Lower Low at 95K (-10.7%), aligning with MA100 (1d) support. RSI (4h) is confirming bearish momentum. 🔥 Trading Plan: Sell now before further downside! I was thinking about how to say it, and I came up with this idea. Thank you again. ------------------------------------ #BTCUSDT 1M As shown in the chart, it has risen a lot, so it is natural to feel downward pressure. No one knows how big this downward pressure will be. However, what I can tell you is the flow of funds. To see a more detailed flow, you need to look at the gap occurrence status on the 1D chart, but when looking at the overall flow of funds, it is true that a lot of funds are flowing into the coin market. Selling all of this inflow of funds means that you will not be able to overcome the volatility in the upcoming bull market and will rather increase the probability of suffering losses. The reason is that the average purchase price is likely to be set too high and is likely to be located in the volatility range. Therefore, you need to respond according to your investment style. In other words, if your investment style is one that wants to trade quickly and urgently, a strategy that sells whenever it shows signs of falling would be appropriate to gain profits. If not, if you have a longer-term outlook or trade mainly in spot transactions, I think it would be better to leave coins (tokens) corresponding to profits rather than selling all of them so that you can more easily purchase them in the future bull market. Leaving a coin (token) corresponding to the profit means a coin (token) with a purchase principal of 0. In other words, it means that when the price rises after purchase, the purchase principal is sold. In that sense, when looking at the BTCUSDT 1M chart, you can see that the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.618 (89050.0) is a very important support and resistance area. #BTCUSDT 1D This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31. Therefore, it is expected that the key will be whether there is support near 101947.24 after this volatility period. If it falls without support near 101947.24, it is expected that the trend will be determined again by touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. If you have been reading my ideas, you will understand that you should not try to create a trading strategy by analyzing charts. As I mentioned earlier, you should create a trading strategy that suits your investment style with the information obtained from chart analysis. That is why the opinion that it will fall now and sell everything can be interpreted differently by different people, so you need to be careful. Some people are currently making profits and others are losing money. Those who are making profits will have the luxury of waiting even if the price falls, and those who are losing money may be suffering from psychological pressure. The information I am giving you is to provide information on how to respond to all of these people. In that sense, you need to focus on the price that I am talking about, that is, the support and resistance points or sections. If your average purchase price is below the support and resistance points or sections that I am talking about, you can check the downward trend and intensity and judge the situation. If not, you need to create a response strategy based on how much cash you currently have. If your current cash holding is less than 20% of your total investment and you feel unstable psychologically, it is a good idea to sell some of it to secure cash. This will allow you to secure the ability to purchase more even if the price falls, so you will be able to secure a certain level of psychological stability even if the price falls. I think trading is about responding to your investment style and psychological state in this way. Therefore, you should calmly look at your current psychological state, check your cash holdings, and create a response strategy that suits your investment style. This is the strategy I can tell you. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Pivot Points Part 1: Understanding the PivotWelcome to this two-part series on one of the oldest and most reliable tools in short-term trading: pivot points . First developed in the trading pits of Chicago, pivot points gave traders a quick and consistent way to identify potential turning points for the trading day. Despite the evolution of markets from open-outcry to electronic trading, pivot points have stood the test of time. They remain a valuable tool for traders, providing a clear roadmap to navigate intraday price action. In Part 1, we’ll focus on the pivot point itself—what it is, why it’s so effective, and three ways to incorporate it into your trading. In Part 2, we’ll build on this foundation by delving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot. What Is the Pivot Point? At its core, the pivot point is a calculated price level based on the previous session’s high, low, and close: Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 This level acts as the day’s central reference point, dividing the market into two zones. Prices trading above the pivot point generally suggest bullish sentiment, while prices below it indicate bearish sentiment. Day traders use the pivot point to gauge market bias for the session. If the price opens above the pivot and holds there, it often signals that buyers are in control. Conversely, if the price opens below the pivot and stays below it, sellers likely dominate. The pivot point frequently acts as a magnet for price action, with the market often testing it multiple times during the day. This dynamic adaptation to the prior session’s activity makes it especially useful for short-term traders seeking actionable levels. Pivot Point: S&P 500 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The Key Advantage: Objectivity One of the standout features of pivot points is their objectivity. Unlike other technical tools that rely on subjective settings or interpretations, pivot points are calculated using a straightforward formula. This standardisation is a crucial advantage because it ensures that many traders are watching the same levels. This widespread attention gives pivot points their strength. They act as a universal benchmark, creating a self-reinforcing cycle: when many traders anticipate reactions around a pivot point, the likelihood of significant price action at that level increases. This objectivity also benefits newer traders by providing a clear, consistent framework for interpreting price movements. Pivot points eliminate guesswork, allowing traders to focus on developing strategies around reliable levels. Three Ways to Use the Pivot Point in Your Trading 1. Developing a Bias Where the price opens relative to the pivot point can set the tone for the session. In markets with a defined open and close, such as equities, the opening price’s position above or below the pivot point is a key indicator of sentiment. For 24-hour markets like forex, the calculation is based on the high, low, and close from the New York session—the most significant closing price. While the opening price in these markets is less critical, understanding where the Asian session has traded relative to the pivot can provide valuable insights into sentiment and potential momentum for the day ahead. Example: Tesla In the below example, Tesla opens the session by gapping through the pivot point on the open. This is then followed by a period of consolidation above the pivot point – setting a bullish bias for the session. Tesla 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Recognising Price Patterns Around the Pivot Price action around the pivot point can reveal important trading opportunities: • Bounce: A strong bounce off the pivot suggests it’s being respected as a significant level, often leading to continuation in the direction of the bounce. • Break and Retest: If the price breaks through the pivot and then retests it as support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend), it can offer a reliable entry point. • Choppy Action: Repeated crossings of the pivot without clear direction indicate indecision—often a signal to step back and wait for clearer trends to emerge. Combining these price patterns with candlestick signals, like bullish engulfing patterns or bearish pin bars, can add further confidence to your setups. Example: Here we see a classic ‘break and retest’ pattern form around the pivot on the FTSE 100 5min candle chart. Having initially held the pivot as support, the market breaks below the pivot and the retraces to retest – using the pivot as resistance and creating a well-defined short setup. FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Enhancing Context with VWAP Combining pivot points with the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) can give traders an additional layer of confirmation. Both tools are objective, widely used, and calculated from historical price data, making them a natural pairing. If both the pivot point and VWAP align as support or resistance, it strengthens the level’s importance. Divergence between the two can provide insight into whether short-term momentum might conflict with longer-term trends. By blending these tools, traders gain a more comprehensive view of market dynamics. Example: In this example we see price action on EUR/USD across two days. The first day sees the market make steady gains as prices hold above the daily pivot and VWAP. The second day shows a more mixed start with prices chopping back and forth on either side before finally establishing a foothold above VWAP and the daily pivot – leading to steady gains during European trading. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Final Thoughts The pivot point is more than just a calculated level—it’s a bridge between historical price action and current sentiment. Its simplicity, objectivity, and widespread use make it an indispensable tool for day traders. Whether you’re gauging market bias, identifying key price patterns, or combining it with other tools like VWAP, the pivot point provides a solid foundation for making informed decisions. In Part 2 of this series, we’ll explore how the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point have the potential to add further precision to your short-term trading. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
6
I gave up on trading EUR/USD. Here is whyToday I was about to violate my trading plan because of being unable to recognize when I didn't understand what price action was doing. My trading plan stipulates that I can only trade when Higher timeframes (1D, 1W, 1M) are in alignment with lower timeframes (H4, H1, M15) If they're not in alignment, my strategy doesn't work. I have no way of predicting price movements and knowing I'll most probably be right. Today this alignment was not present, yet, because I subconsciously wanted my market analysis to be right, I failed to acknowledge this misalignment and tried to come up with trade ideas. Price action kept on invalidating my trade ideas as I prepared them, and I found myself looking for new ideas. "Since this entry scenario is now invalidated, maybe price will do this instead and I will look to enter after this scenario is confirmed" "This scenario failed, instead of looking to buy EUR/USD today, I might look to sell instead after price rejects this level" "Since price failed to reject this level, maybe it will reject this other level and I will look to sell there" You get the point. I was unable to make strong cases, my cases kept on being invalidated and I kept coming up with new ones on the go! Sort of chasing a rabbit. Don't do this. For example, understanding when a 1H bearish trend is a Daily timeframe pullback from a Bullish trend and having an expected level where that 1h trend and Daily pullback is likely to find support and reverse, continuing the main trend. This stops me from entering long trades and losing because although the Daily timeframe is bullish the lower timeframes are still trending bearish which indicate the pullback is not yet finished. or from taking 1H short trades past the daily pullback target just because I saw a 1H bearish trend, failing to realize that trend might be reaching its end. If However price pulls back past my target level, and the lower timeframe trend continues pulling back even though the Higher timeframe is supposedly bullish, then If I don't have a logical pull back target — I am effectively neutral. In other words, I do not understand what price is doing at that point in time. It's time to step back and wait for a new development that I can understand occurs. What happens when I am either overconfident or eager to trade is that I can get into my own head and fail to realize I'm in unknown territory. This failure led me to keep trying to establish trade scenarios that of course kept getting invalidated because I do not know how to make prediction in such market conditions — My timeframes were not aligned. I was able to realize this and adjust my behavior. However, what often happens is you fail to realize this, you come up with a trade idea, and you take the trade and it ends up being a loss — Caught up on the wrong side of the market. Or even worse, 2 or 3 trades work out, and the trader believes their strategy is good. Then get caught in a 10% drawdown because of acting on the same patterns. My point is, that it's important to be able to recognize when market conditions fall outside the scope of your strategy and its edge — Recognize when the market is in a cycle where you don't understand how to trade profitably — and be able to sit out and say I don't know. Don't try to find trends in the middle of price ranges. The number one job of a trader is to Protect Capital in order to have available capital to allocate to profitable market opportunities. Trading outside the scope of your strategy and its edge is failing to protect the capital — It's like trying to Play Soccer with a Basketball, the shots, the passes, the tricks might work here and there, but will usually come out faulty. In my specific case, I began the week with a bullish view for EUR/USD from the daily timeframe, but the lower timeframes, where I execute and manage trades, have been in a bullish trend since Monday NY Session, So since I couldn't find long opportunities, I started looking for short opportunities, even though I had no clear rationale that aligned with the higher timeframes. My scenarios and ideas kept failing, and I kept coming up with new ones, until I became aware of the pattern due to writing down my analysis and process and realizing I actually did not understand the current stage of price action. That's where the importance of a well-documented trading plan alongside a journal for analysis comes in. A journal isn't just to record trades. It's also to develop your rationale and ensure you can clearly explain the why behind your actions which can then be cross-examined with the trading plan. I have established clear rules for when to stay out of the market and sit on my hands. If timeframes are not aligned and moving in synch, I stay out — It's a non-negotiable. Of course this is specific to each strategy, but every strategy must have an underlying trading plan with its non negotiables.
Education
by Plothus
3
Learn Supply and Demand Basics in Gold XAAUSD Trading In this article, we will discuss the basic principles of Smart Money Concepts in Gold trading. I will explain to you how Gold price relates to supply and demand on the market. What is a fair value and how to identify it. We will discuss a relation between a fair value and supply and demand and why is it so important to learn to recognize the imbalance. Gold Price First, let's briefly discuss how the price of Gold is valued . Gold price is determined by the basic economic principles of supply and demand. Supply is defined by the actions of the sellers and selling volumes. While a demand is defined by the activity of buyers and the volumes they wish to purchase. When supply exceeds demand, it leads to a decline in prices. Increased selling pressure leads to lower prices as sellers compete to attract buyers. Above, you can see how the excess of demand pushes Gold prices up rapidly. When demand exceeds supply, we see an increase in the price of the financial asset. In the example above, you can see how the excess of supply leads to a depreciation of a Gold price. Imbalance & Fair Value The excess of supply or demand on the market is also called an imbalance in Smart Money Concept trading SMC. The imbalance causes strong bullish or bearish movement on the market. However, such moves do not last forever. At some moment, reaching a particular price level, the market will stop growing or falling, and the market will find the equilibrium in supply and demand. Such an equilibrium is also called a fair value in SMC trading. On the chart above, Gold was growing rapidly. After reaching some price level, the growth stopped and the market found a fair value. Supply finally absorbed the excess of demand. Sideways Movement & Range When the market finds a fair value, it usually starts trading in sideways . The sideways movement forms a horizontal range - a horizontal parallel channel. Such ranges signify that the market participants agree about a current price of an asset. Above, you can see that after a strong up movement, Gold found a fair value and a consolidation within a horizontal range started. Fair Value Range When you spotted the range, you should remember that the market may stay within that for a very long period of time. The trigger that will make the market reassess the fair value is typically a some important fundamental factor, the surprising geopolitical or economic event that will create a new imbalance on the market. A strong signal that the market strives to find a new fair value is the breakout of one of the boundaries of the range. It is a signal of a violation of a current fair value. You can see that Gold found a fair value and was stuck for quite a long period within a wide horizontal range. Then, because of the release of significant US fundamental news, an imbalance occurred. Fair value range was violated, and the price found a new fair value higher. Trading Tips When the imbalance on the market occurs and it violates the fair value, the price tends to find a new fair value around significant liquidity zones. That is why it is so critical to pay attention to them. Also, the laws of supply and demand, imbalance and fair value work on any time frame and can be applied for any trading style. Learn to perceive a price chart from a Supply and Demand perspective in order to master Smart Money Concept trading strategy. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
19
Part 1: How to Analyze Events in the Forex Market? The forex market is one of the most dynamic and volatile financial markets in the world. It is deeply influenced by global events, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders who understand how to analyze these events can make informed decisions and capitalize on market movements. Influence Of the Global Events: The forex market is directly linked to global economic health. Since currencies represent the economies of their respective countries, any significant event like an interest rate decision, inflation data, or geopolitical conflict. It can cause major fluctuations in currency prices. Here’s global events play important role: - Central Bank Policies: When the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) changes interest rates, it impacts global liquidity and investment flows. - Economic Data Releases: GDP growth, inflation, and employment reports provide insights into economic stability, affecting investor confidence. - Geopolitical Events: Wars, elections, trade agreements, and diplomatic conflicts impact currency demand and risk sentiment. What Happens When News Is Published? When a major economic event or news release occurs, the forex market reacts instantly. Here’s the typical stages of events: Stage 1: Market Expectations: Before the news release, traders anticipate the outcome based on forecasts. The market often prices in expectations. Stage 2: Immediate Volatility: If the actual data differs from the forecast, there’s a sharp price movement in the affected currency pairs. Stage 3: Liquidity Fluctuations: Spreads widen, and liquidity dries up momentarily as traders rush to execute orders. Stage 4: Short-Term Correction: After the initial reaction, the market stabilizes, and price action follows the broader trend. Major Events: Central Bank Meetings – Institutions like the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE set monetary policies. Interest rate hikes strengthen a currency, while rate cuts weaken it. Forward guidance also plays a role in shaping long-term trends. Inflation Reports (CPI & PPI): These measure inflation levels, influencing central bank decisions. Higher inflation often leads to interest rate hikes, strengthening the currency, while lower inflation may result in monetary easing, weakening it. Employment Data (NFP & Job Reports) – The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key indicator. Strong job growth supports a stronger USD, while weak employment data signals economic trouble. GDP Growth Reports –:A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate boosts investor confidence and strengthens the currency, while economic contraction leads to depreciation. Political & Geopolitical Events: Elections, government policies, trade wars, and conflicts create uncertainty, often pushing investors toward safe-haven currencies like the USD, JPY, or CHF One's Loss, Another's Win: When the U.S. releases strong economic data, such as higher-than-expected GDP growth, strong job reports (NFP), or an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, The demand for the U.S. dollar increases. This leads to USD appreciation against other currencies, including the euro. For example, ---> EUR/USD falls : USD is gaining strength, it takes fewer dollars to buy 1 euro, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to drop. ---> USD/EUR rises : USD is now wortth more, the inverse exchange rate (USD/EUR) increases, meaning 1 USD can now buy more euro. Key strategies for trading events: •Stay Ahead with an Event Calendar: Keep track of important economic events and central bank meetings to anticipate potential market-moving news. • Gauge Market Expectations: Understand forecasts and market sentiment before the event to predict how the market might react. • Implement Stop-Loss Orders: Protect your trades from excessive risk by setting stop-loss orders to cap potential losses during volatile moves. • Wait for Market Stability: Allow the market to settle after the event to avoid getting caught in the initial volatility and better assess the trend. • Evaluate the Market’s Response: Assess the immediate market reaction to the event to identify if the initial price move is sustainable or a short-term spike. Drawbacks of Trading News: High Volatility & Whipsaws: Prices can spike in both directions before settling on a trend, leading to stop-loss hunting. Widened Spreads: During news releases, brokers often widen spreads, increasing trading costs. Slippage: Rapid price movements can lead to orders being executed at unexpected prices. Emotional Trading: Sudden market swings can trigger impulsive decisions, leading to losses. Market Manipulation: Big players and institutions often move the market unpredictably before major news releases. In the next part, we will focus on the specific events and strategies.
Education
by forextidings
Gann Trading Strategy | Harmonic Cycle & Vibration ModelGann Harmonic Cycle & Vibration Model Explained | Master Market Timing with Gann's Techniques. In this video, we explore the Gann Harmonic Cycle-Vibration Model, a powerful trading approach inspired by W.D. Gann's timeless principles. This strategy revolves around the natural laws of market movement, where time and price operate in perfect harmony. Key highlights: 1. End-to-End Cycles: Understand how markets repeat at consistent intervals, starting from significant highs or lows. 2. Square of 9: Learn how this mathematical tool predicts price movements and time cycles by identifying their natural connection. 3. Angles and Degrees: Discover how critical angles like 45°, 90°, and 135° reveal key support, resistance, and reversal points. This structured system blends time-based cycles with actionable insights, enabling traders to forecast trends and pinpoint turning points effectively. Dive in to master this incredible trading strategy! Gann Astro works on all this major pairs and many more CAPITALCOM:GOLD CAPITALCOM:US100 BINANCE:BTCUSDT FX:EURUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by GannAstroTrader
4
Myths about Chartism (Part 1): Diamond FormationsCurrently, the ideas of the fathers of Technical Analysis are outdated in the face of the flood of trendy popularizers. Concepts that once formed the foundation of the profession have been manipulated, and with them, centuries of experience have been diluted in the eagerness for novelty and total disinterest in the past (the main advantage of the investor). Beyond "sticker collectors," a chartist was someone who studied the psychology of the masses and their indelible mark on the markets. Above all, they were logical beings (something suspiciously frowned upon nowadays). Behind every fluctuation or manifestation of price action, a chartist tried to achieve a full understanding, and it was Richard W. Schabacker who was the first investor to compile and publish decades of study in 1932, in the book titled "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits: A Course in Forecasting." Relying mostly on this first and purest source of information, and with the belief that mass psychology has not changed, I plan to write a series of well-documented articles on Chartism, the backbone of Technical Analysis in the West. Diamond Formation Ideas from Richard W. Schabacker: "This pattern could be considered a variant of the Head and Shoulders formation. However, it could more accurately be described as a formation composed of two base Triangles with their vertices pointing in opposite directions – an Inverted Symmetrical Triangle merging into a normal Symmetrical Triangle." "Rarely is it found in a perfectly symmetrical and clearly defined form; some degree of leeway must be taken and is permissible when tracing its boundaries. However, when it appears, it is a reliable formation and one that allows the trader to take a profitable position. It is more often found at tops than at bottoms." "Head and Shoulders formations with declining necklines generally offer few opportunities for taking profitable trading positions, but when they also allow for the construction of a Diamond, they provide a good breakout signal at a much higher and more profitable level." "It appears at bottoms as well as at tops, and is equally reliable as a reversal signal in either position." Content Analysis: I want you to pay special attention to how these formations are described as reliable r eversal signals . Unlike what is currently popularized, for Schabacker, a diamond formation is a corrective pattern, provided it forms at the top or bottom of a trend (with a greater presence at the top). The theory that a diamond formation can be either corrective or a continuation pattern, I have researched, goes back to the work of John Magee (and Edwards ), a disciple of Schabacker. Magee, in his influential book "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" (1948), graphically shows an example where a "diamond formation" ends up generating a continuation of the trend. The issue is that the case presented by Magee, rather than a trend, is a strong and extremely vertical explosion of bullish volatility. By applying technical lines to the (natural) reversal, Magee believes he sees a diamond formation, a mistake that would not have been passed down to future generations of investors had he applied the logic of this type of corrective patterns. Logic Behind Diamond Formations: Imagine an uptrend that cannot surpass the previous high and experiences a deeper-than-normal pullback (both signs of weakness); then, subsequent bullish attempts are thwarted by selling forces. As supply and demand compress, we will find exhausted and demoralized buyers, alongside confident sellers. At some point, many of those demoralized buyers might panic (with good reason) and switch sides to join the selling forces. Another no less crucial detail is that each rejection by the sellers will create walls of liquidity that are difficult for the exhausted buyers to overcome; meanwhile, downward the path will be clear, which will attract more sellers, enticed by the excellent risk-reward ratio and the strategic placement of SLs (close and extremely protected). In such a scenario, a sharp price drop is logical and highly probable. "A process of consolidation involves many trapped participants and increasingly tight SLs, so liquidations will generate strong bursts of volatility." In a downtrend, it would be exactly the opposite. If the selling force cannot break below the previous low and rebounds with extreme strength, these are signs of weakness. Then, if buyers reject each selling attack until supply and demand are compressed, the most likely scenario would be an upward explosion. Demoralized and fearful sellers, worried about a probable liquidation, will not take long to capitulate their positions to increasingly strong and confident buyers. The influx of new demand, attracted by an excellent risk-reward ratio and a relatively close, well-protected SL, will likely precipitate things upward with high probability. Additional Notes: -In the BTCUSDT chart, you can see with lines where John Magee would take profits (TP), but I recommend that profit-taking be done horizontally aligned with the base of the diamond (Richard W. Schabacker did not specify details about taking profits in this type of formation). Richard W. Schabacker and John Magee (and Edwards) considered volume important when validating the breakout of the formation, but I recommend validating the breakout by understanding the logic and context in which the formation occurs (moreover, waiting for a breakout with volume might cause you to miss more than half of the move, as price compressions generate strong bursts of volatility). -It's natural that John Magee's and Edwards' misinterpretation impacted several generations of technical analysts, as "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" (1948) is one of the most influential works in the field ( "The bible of technical analysis"). It was published after World War II, at a time of financial market expansion and growing interest in investment tools. Schabacker, on the other hand, died young (1938). -The introduction to "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" (1948) and statements on the book's cover reveal the debt that Magee and Edwards feel towards Mr. Schabacker. Their frankness and honesty should be admired because they freely declare that they did not develop or create the many facets of Technical Analysis they were passing on to a new generation.
Education
by Especulador96
Is Floki Inu really just another version of Dogecoin?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 10 minutes of your time . For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 10 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of Floki Inu and its role in the global financial landscape. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Floki Inu Cryptocurrencies linked to well-known figures like Elon Musk tend to have great potential but come with substantial volatility and risk. While the current technical chart for Floki Inu shows an upward trend, some short-term pullbacks may occur before any sustained growth. However, this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in meme coins and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the website ,. Floki Inu Overview Floki Inu, a meme coin inspired by Elon Musk’s dog, has made waves in the cryptocurrency space, standing out as one of the most influential and talked-about projects. Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Floki Inu began as a meme coin but quickly evolved into something much larger, gaining significant attention due to its sizable market cap and the backing of a passionate community. In this overview, we will dive into what Floki Inu is, who created it, its origin story, how to buy it, its potential as an investment, its utility, and what makes it unique compared to other meme coins. How to Buy Floki Inu To acquire Floki Inu, you must first sign up on a cryptocurrency exchange that supports it. Look for a platform with strong security features, such as two-factor authentication and data encryption, to ensure the safety of your investments. Additionally, consider the transaction fees, as these can eat into your profits. The exchange should also be user-friendly and offer an easy interface for smooth trading. To make the best choice, reading reviews and feedback from other users is essential for selecting a trustworthy platform. The History of Floki Inu Floki Inu was born out of a single tweet by Elon Musk on June 25, 2021, where he announced he would soon adopt a Shiba Inu puppy named Floki. This tweet sparked the creation of the Floki Inu cryptocurrency, which was initially developed by an anonymous creator but soon abandoned. Despite this, a passionate community took over and revived the project by July 6, 2021. The project quickly gained traction, especially after Musk’s tweet on September 12, when he revealed his family had received the puppy. By that time, Floki Inu was already being actively traded. Initially launched as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum blockchain, Floki Inu has grown into a multifaceted project that includes Web 3.0, decentralized finance (DeFi), and Metaverse elements, transforming it from a meme coin into "The People’s Crypto." Floki Inu’s Mission Floki Inu stands out not only for its cryptocurrency potential but also for its commitment to social causes. The primary mission of the Floki Inu team is to build schools in underdeveloped countries and combat food insecurity worldwide. Their charitable initiatives have attracted attention from major institutions, such as Nasdaq, which listed Floki Inu as one of the top metaverse projects to watch in 2022. Additionally, Floki Inu has partnered with the Million Gardens Movement, led by Kimbal Musk, to fight global food insecurity. These charitable goals give Floki Inu a sense of purpose beyond just financial speculation, aiming to make a real-world impact. Floki Inu Use Cases Floki Inu’s value is reflected in its versatility and the range of use cases it supports: 1. Investment – Many see Floki Inu as a potential investment, especially due to Elon Musk’s influence on the price movements of meme coins. Investors hope for gains based on social media hype and increased market attention. 2. Trading – Just like other cryptocurrencies, Floki Inu can be traded to benefit from price fluctuations in the market. Traders can buy and sell the token to capitalize on short-term movements. 3. Staking – Floki Inu can be staked in various wallets, allowing users to lock their tokens and earn rewards over time, which adds an additional layer of utility for holders. 4. Charitable Initiatives – Perhaps one of its most unique attributes, Floki Inu is heavily focused on charitable projects, especially around education and addressing global food insecurity, distinguishing it from other meme coins in terms of long-term vision. Floki Inu’s Ecosystem Floki Inu’s ecosystem is broad, encompassing several ambitious projects that are still under development. These projects span areas like NFTs, DeFi, and the Metaverse. Here’s a look at the main initiatives within the Floki Inu ecosystem: - Valhalla – Floki Inu has ventured into the NFT gaming space with its game, Valhalla. This game is based on NFTs, and players can earn FLOKI tokens by participating, with full ownership of the tokens they acquire. These tokens can be used for in-game purchases, creating a dynamic and rewarding experience for players. - FlokiFi – FlokiFi is a suite of decentralized finance (DeFi) products, which aims to bring innovation to the space. The first product launched under FlokiFi is the FlokiFi Locker, designed to be a leading protocol for securing digital assets. Additional staking products are planned but haven’t been fully disclosed yet. - FlokiPlace– An NFT marketplace called FlokiPlace is in the works, where users can buy and sell NFTs and digital assets. The platform is intended to expand the use of Floki Inu, positioning it as a viable alternative to traditional currencies like Bitcoin and even the US Dollar for digital transactions. - Floki University – Floki Inu is also focused on education with the creation of Floki University, a Metaverse-based platform designed to teach users about cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. The university will offer free courses on crypto basics and specialized content, with the possibility of some advanced courses requiring payment in FLOKI tokens. The ultimate goal is for Floki University to become a leading educational platform in the crypto space, providing a large database of resources to users worldwide. These projects are still in development but showcase the ambitious nature of Floki Inu’s ecosystem. They represent the broader vision of the team to transform the project into a multifaceted platform that not only participates in the crypto market but also makes a tangible impact through education, gaming, and charitable work. In conclusion, Floki Inu has moved beyond being a simple meme coin and is working to build a comprehensive and impactful ecosystem. Its commitment to charity, educational initiatives, and its diverse technological projects position it as one of the most interesting and innovative meme coins in the market today. Whether you are considering investing in Floki Inu or just exploring its potential, it’s clear that it has a lot to offer, both as a digital asset and as a project with a deeper purpose. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 Floki Inu is a meme coin inspired by Elon Musk’s dog. It was launched on the Ethereum blockchain and quickly gained popularity. The project was revived by a passionate community after its initial abandonment. Floki Inu has evolved from a meme coin into a multifaceted ecosystem. Its mission focuses on charitable causes, including building schools and combating food insecurity. The coin’s use cases include investment, trading, staking, and charitable initiatives. Floki Inu is developing projects in NFTs, DeFi, and the Metaverse. Valhalla, an NFT game, and FlokiFi, a DeFi product, are key components. Floki University is an educational platform teaching crypto and blockchain technology. Floki Inu aims to make a lasting impact on both the crypto world and society. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
5
Natural Gas Based on historical price patterns and seasonal demand cycles for natural gas, the **best months to buy natural gas stocks** (or ETFs tied to natural gas) have historically been **April–June** and **September–October**, when prices often hit seasonal lows. Here’s a breakdown of why these periods stand out: --- ### **1. April–June: Post-Winter Low** - **Historical Trend**: Natural gas prices typically decline in spring due to reduced heating demand after winter. Storage inventories are often rebuilt during this period, leading to oversupply and lower prices. - **Example**: From 2000–2023, natural gas futures averaged **~15% lower prices in April–June** compared to winter peaks. - **Why Buy Here**: Stocks may be undervalued as markets price in weaker short-term demand. This period offers a potential entry point before summer cooling demand (air conditioning) or hurricane-related supply risks emerge. --- ### **2. September–October: Pre-Winter Dip** - **Historical Trend**: Prices often dip in early fall ("shoulder season") before winter demand kicks in. Traders anticipate storage levels (which peak in November) and may sell ahead of uncertainty. - **Example**: In 13 of the past 20 years, natural gas hit a seasonal low in September or October. - **Why Buy Here**: Investors can position for the winter rally (Nov–Feb), when heating demand spikes and prices historically rise. Stocks may rally in anticipation. --- ### **3. December–February: Use Caution** - **Risk**: While winter sees price spikes due to cold weather, stocks may already reflect these gains by late fall. Buying during winter carries risk of a post-peak correction (e.g., mild winters in 2015–2016 caused prices to crash 40%). --- ### **Key Historical Exceptions** - **Weather Shocks**: Extreme cold (e.g., 2014 Polar Vortex) or hurricanes (e.g., Katrina in 2005) can disrupt seasonal patterns. - **Storage Gluts**: In years with record-high storage (e.g., 2020), prices may stay depressed even in winter. - **Macro Shifts**: The U.S. shale boom (post-2008) and LNG exports (post-2016) have altered traditional seasonality. --- ### **Strategic Takeaways** - **Buy Low, Sell High**: Focus on **April–June** and **September–October** for accumulation. - **Avoid Chasing Winter Rallies**: By December, prices and stock valuations may already reflect winter premiums. - **Pair with Data**: Monitor the EIA’s weekly storage reports (released Thursdays) and weather forecasts. --- ### **Long-Term Considerations** - **Energy Transition Risks**: Renewables and decarbonization policies could suppress long-term demand for natural gas. - **Geopolitics**: Global LNG demand (e.g., Europe replacing Russian gas) may create new volatility. --- ### **Bottom Line** Historically, **April–June and September–October** have been the most favorable months to buy natural gas stocks. However, always validate with current storage data, weather outlooks, and macroeconomic trends. Natural gas is inherently volatile—**diversify** and avoid overexposure to this cyclical sector.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MasiView
High Tight Flag: The Ultimate Key to Explosive ProfitsIn the realm of trading, there exists a chart pattern so powerful, so rare, that it feels like a prophecy for massive success – the High Tight Flag (HTF). This isn’t just another pattern; it’s the holy grail of bullish setups, a gateway to some of the most extraordinary gains the market has to offer. Traders who master this pattern unlock the ability to spot opportunities that others can only dream of. The Magic of the High Tight Flag Picture this: a stock surging over 100% in just 1 to 8 weeks, defying expectations with an almost vertical climb. Then, it pauses – but only briefly – with a shallow pullback of no more than 25%, lasting just 1 to 5 weeks. The tension builds, the stage is set, and suddenly, the breakout erupts, sending the stock to new all-time highs. This is no ordinary pattern. The High Tight Flag signals one thing loud and clear: no one is selling. Despite the enormous gains, buying pressure remains relentless. This shows us that big players – institutional investors – are still loading up. It’s a rare alignment of forces that every trader dreams of catching. Volume: The Hidden Key to Validation Volume plays a critical role in confirming the strength of the High Tight Flag pattern. As the stock consolidates, the volume should decrease, indicating a pause in aggressive buying while holders remain firm. When the breakout occurs, the volume should spike significantly, showing a renewed surge of demand that propels the stock higher. Without this volume confirmation, the pattern’s reliability decreases. Unlocking the High Tight Flag’s Power A Lightning Surge: The stock climbs 100% or more in just 1–8 weeks. A Calm Pause: The pullback stays shallow, between 10–25%, over a short period (1–5 weeks). The Perfect Flag: Flags with a slight downward slope are often the most explosive. The Entry Point: The breakout occurs when the stock surpasses the flag’s high by, for example, 10 cents. Volume Confirmation: Ensure volume decreases during consolidation and surges above average during the breakout. The High Tight Flag is the epitome of market strength, revealing the hand of smart money in action. A Proven Success Rate The High Tight Flag boasts a success rate of over 75%, making it one of the most reliable patterns in existence. But it’s not for the impatient or undisciplined. This is a rare gem, and spotting it requires both skill and dedication. Yet, the reward is unparalleled: explosive moves and the chance to ride the wave of institutional momentum. A Community Built on Success: Let’s Share Our Findings To all TradingView users: I have a suggestion to make this even more powerful. Whenever you spot a High Tight Flag formation, share it in the comments! Let others know the stock, the timeframe, and the setup you’ve identified. By working together as a community, we can uncover these rare opportunities faster and ensure no one misses out. Let’s build a space where knowledge flows freely, and success becomes a shared achievement. So, if you find an HTF pattern, don’t keep it to yourself—help others, and they’ll help you in return. Together, we can dominate the markets! The Pattern That Could Transform Your Trading The High Tight Flag is more than a pattern – it’s a revelation that separates the average trader from the elite. It offers a window into the market’s inner workings and shows you the true power of institutional demand. By mastering it, you’ll gain the edge to capture opportunities others overlook. This isn’t just a tool; it’s your blueprint to extraordinary success. Learn it, apply it, and let your gains speak for themselves. The next big move is out there – are you ready to seize it?
OTC:CYFRFEducation
by ShilpaChawla-pawellazikowski
Earnings Season Playbook: What Traders Should Know to Stay Ahead🏈 It’s Earnings Season — Game On Earnings season is the market’s quarterly equivalent of the Super Bowl (with just as much action) or the Oscars (minus the red carpet but with just as much drama). Every three months or so (every quarter), companies parade their financial performances, guiding traders and investors through a rollercoaster of beats, misses, and that classic "in line with expectations" snooze-fest. It’s exciting, nerve-wracking, and, if played right, potentially profitable. So, how do you navigate this high-stakes quarterly event? With a solid playbook and a lot less stress than you might think. 🌀 Know When Things Kick Off Timing is everything. Earnings reports trickle in on a quarterly basis and are usually released after the regular trading session (for the most part) or before the opening bell (for the banks, mostly). Having a scheduled earnings calendar means that traders have enough time to digest the numbers — or panic — before the next batch of updates. So make sure you keep an eye on the earnings calendar — you don’t want to be caught holding ill-fated shares if Tesla TSLA announces its profit margins have shrunk because of that quirky Cybertruck, right? Preparation here means knowing who’s reporting, when, and what the expectations are. 📝 Read Between the (Income Statement) Lines Earnings reports are more than just numbers. Of course, revenue and EPS (earnings per share) are the headliners, but the juicy details often lurk in the fine print. Look out for annualized revenue growth (or shrinkage), profit margins, and forward-looking guidance. If a company beats earnings but lowers its full-year forecast, it’s like winning the lottery but learning half your prize is in Monopoly money. Market-fluent traders dig deep and connect the dots rather than reacting to headlines. 💡 Forward-Looking Projections: The Market’s Guiding Light Forward projections or guidance is among the most powerful tools companies use to set the tone. A quarterly performance is old news by the time it’s reported; traders want to know what’s next. Positive guidance can send stocks soaring, while cautious language can sink even the strongest performers. For example, if a tech company beats earnings but announces reduced hiring or slower revenue growth projections, brace for turbulence. Think of guidance as the “what’s next” teaser for a Netflix NFLX series you can’t stop binging. Btw, Netflix really outworked everyone in the last quarter. ☎️ Earnings Calls: Raw Market Reactions Earnings calls are where the magic — or chaos — happens. CEOs and CFOs are tasked with selling their story to analysts and investors, balancing optimism with realism. Listeners keep an ear out for key phrases like … you know it … “AI,” “generative AI” and “AI data centers”. It’s also where you’ll catch nuggets about new projects, market conditions, and management’s confidence—or lack thereof. Pro tip: Look for a transcript if the financial jargon on live calls makes you feel like you need subtitles. 🎡 The Volatility Playground: Trading Earnings Gaps Earnings season is a volatility wonderland. Stocks can gap up or down significantly in reaction to results, creating opportunities for savvy traders. Trading these gaps requires a blend of technical analysis and fast decision-making. Did the stock gap down despite a solid earnings beat? That might be a buy-the-dip moment. Conversely, a massive gap up can shout overbought. The trick is understanding the context of the move — is it justified, or is it speculative? 🐏 Avoid the Herd Mentality (or at Least Try to) Earnings season brings out the FOMO. Traders see a stock soaring post-earnings and rush in, only to get burned when the euphoria fizzles. It’s tempting to follow the herd, but disciplined traders stay cautious. Always ask: is this stock moving on fundamentals, or is it riding a hype wave? If it’s the latter, step back and let the dust settle — the market loves to overcorrect. 🖼️ Sector Trends: The Bigger Picture Matters Earnings season isn’t just about individual stocks; it’s a pulse check on entire sectors. If a major bank reports a sharp jump in profits, it’s a bullish sign for the financial sector (yes, we’re talking about JPMorgan’s JPM latest quarterly update ). Similarly, a blockbuster quarter from a tech titan might lift the entire tech space. By keeping an eye on sector trends, traders can spot opportunities and avoid pitfalls. Think of it as reading the room before making your move. 🎮 Play the Long Game Earnings season isn’t just for day traders. Long-term investors can use it to reassess their positions and look for entry points. If a company misses earnings due to short-term challenges but maintains strong fundamentals, it might be a buying opportunity. On the flip side, a stock riding high on hype but lacking substance could be a signal to exit. Patience pays off, especially when everyone else is chasing the next shiny object. ✍️ Wrapping It Up: Stay Sharp, Stay Informed Earnings season is as unpredictable as the plot twists in Succession. But with the right preparation and mindset, it’s also a goldmine of opportunities. Do your homework, keep your emotions in check, and don’t be afraid to sit out if the setup doesn’t feel right. So grab your coffee (or tea, no judgment), fire up your TradingView account, and get ready for the financial fireworks.
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
7
Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy. In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively. 2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures o Contract Specifications: Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity. o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL): Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract. Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies. o Margins: Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility). Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract. The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements: U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices. Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices. Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include: Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices. U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days. Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are: Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward. U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand. Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles: Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures. Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets. 7. Risk Management Strategies Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include: Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings. Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades. 8. Conclusion Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market. By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
what is the most effective indicator?There isn’t a single "most effective" trading indicator that works for everyone, as effectiveness depends on your trading style, strategy, and the market conditions. However, some indicators are considered more versatile or reliable when used correctly. Here's a breakdown to help you choose: Most Effective for Trends: Moving Averages (EMA or SMA): Simple and effective for identifying trends. Works well in trending markets but less reliable in sideways or choppy markets. Pro Tip: Combine short-term and long-term moving averages for crossovers. Ichimoku Cloud: A comprehensive indicator that provides trend direction, support/resistance, and momentum. Effective but requires practice to interpret correctly. Most Effective for Overbought/Oversold Levels: Relative Strength Index (RSI): One of the most popular and effective indicators for spotting overbought or oversold conditions. Works well in both trending and range-bound markets when combined with other tools. Stochastic Oscillator: Similar to RSI but includes %K and %D lines for crossovers. Effective for momentum confirmation. Most Effective for Volatility: Bollinger Bands: Great for identifying periods of high or low volatility and potential breakout zones. Useful for sideways (range-bound) markets and trend reversals. Average True Range (ATR): Excellent for setting stop-loss levels and identifying market volatility trends. Works well in conjunction with trend indicators. Most Effective for Momentum: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Ideal for spotting trend reversals and momentum shifts. Effective when used with a confirmation indicator like RSI. Parabolic SAR: Simple for identifying trend direction and potential exit points. Works best in trending markets. Combination for Higher Effectiveness: Trend + Momentum: Combine EMA with MACD to identify trends and entry/exit points. Overbought/Oversold + Volume: Use RSI with Volume Indicators (e.g., OBV) to confirm breakouts or reversals. Volatility + Trend: Use Bollinger Bands with Ichimoku Cloud to spot breakout opportunities with clear trend guidance.
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by CobraVanguard