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Trend Analysis

Natural Patterns & Fractal GeometryIn my previous research publication, I explored the parallels between the randomness and uncertainty of financial markets and Quantum Mechanics, highlighting how markets operate within a probabilistic framework where outcomes emerge from the interplay of countless variables. At this point, It should be evident that Fractal Geometry complements Chaos Theory. While CT explains the underlying unpredictability, FG reveals the hidden order within this chaos. This transition bridges the probabilistic nature of reality with their geometric foundations. ❖ WHAT ARE FRACTALS? Fractals are self-replicating patterns that emerge in complex systems, offering structure and predictability amidst apparent randomness. They repeat across different scales, meaning smaller parts resemble the overall structure. By recognizing these regularities across different scales, whether in nature, technology, or markets, self-similarity provides insights into how systems function and evolve. Self-Similarity is a fundamental characteristic of fractals, exemplified by structures like the Mandelbrot set, where infinite zooming continuously reveals smaller versions of the same intricate pattern. It's crucial because it reveals the hidden order within complexity, allowing us to understand and anticipate its behavior. ❖ Famous Fractals List of some of the most iconic fractals, showcasing their unique properties and applications across various areas. Mandelbrot Set Generated by iterating a simple mathematical formula in the complex plane. This fractal is one of the most famous, known for its infinitely detailed, self-similar patterns. The edges of the Mandelbrot set contain infinite complexity. Zooming into the set reveals smaller versions of the same structure, showing exact self-similarity at different scales. Models chaos and complexity in natural systems. Used to describe turbulence, market behavior, and signal processing. Julia Set Closely related to the Mandelbrot set, the Julia set is another fractal generated using complex numbers and iterations. Its shape depends on the starting parameters. It exhibits a diverse range of intricate, symmetrical patterns depending on the formula used. Shares the same iterative principles as the Mandelbrot set but with more artistic variability. Explored in graphics, simulations, and as an artistic representation of mathematical complexity. Koch Snowflake Constructed by repeatedly dividing the sides of an equilateral triangle into thirds and replacing the middle segment with another equilateral triangle pointing outward. A classic example of exact self-similarity and infinite perimeter within a finite area. Visualizes how fractals can create complex boundaries from simple recursive rules. Models natural phenomena like snowflake growth and frost patterns. Sierpinski Triangle Created by recursively subdividing an equilateral triangle into smaller triangles and removing the central one at each iteration. Shows perfect self-similarity; each iteration contains smaller versions of the overall triangle. Highlights the balance between simplicity and complexity in fractal geometry. Found in antenna design, artistic patterns, and simulations of resource distribution. Sierpinski Carpet A two-dimensional fractal formed by repeatedly subdividing a square into smaller squares and removing the central one in each iteration. A visual example of how infinite complexity can arise from a simple recursive rule. Used in image compression, spatial modeling, and graphics. Barnsley Fern A fractal resembling a fern leaf, created using an iterated function system (IFS) based on affine transformations. Its patterns closely resemble real fern leaves, making it a prime example of fractals in nature. Shows how simple rules can replicate complex biological structures. Studied in biology and used in graphics for realistic plant modeling. Dragon Curve A fractal curve created by recursively replacing line segments with a specific geometric pattern. Exhibits self-similarity and has a branching, winding appearance. Visually similar to the natural branching of rivers or lightning paths. Used in graphics, artistic designs, and modeling branching systems. Fractal Tree Represents tree-like branching structures generated through recursive algorithms or L-systems. Mimics the structure of natural trees, with each branch splitting into smaller branches that resemble the whole. Demonstrates the efficiency of fractal geometry in resource distribution, like water or nutrients in trees. Found in nature, architecture, and computer graphics. ❖ FRACTALS IN NATURE Before delving into their most relevant use cases, it's crucial to understand how fractals function in nature. Fractals are are the blueprint for how nature organizes itself efficiently and adaptively. By repeating similar patterns at different scales, fractals enable natural systems to optimize resource distribution, maintain balance, and adapt to external forces. Tree Branching: Trees grow in a hierarchical branching structure, where the trunk splits into large branches, then into smaller ones, and so on. Each smaller branch resembles the larger structure. The angles and lengths follow fractal scaling laws, optimizing the tree's ability to capture sunlight and distribute nutrients efficiently. Rivers and Tributaries: River systems follow a branching fractal pattern, where smaller streams (tributaries) feed into larger rivers. This structure optimizes water flow and drainage, adhering to fractal principles where the system's smaller parts mirror the larger layout. Lightning Strikes: The branching paths of a lightning bolt are determined by the path of least resistance in the surrounding air. These paths are fractal because each smaller branch mirrors the larger discharge pattern, creating self-similar jagged structures which ensures efficient distribution of resources (electrical energy) across space. Snowflakes: Snowflakes grow by adding water molecules to their crystal structure in a symmetrical, self-similar pattern. The fractal nature arises because the growth process repeats itself at different scales, producing intricate designs that look similar at all levels of magnification. Blood Vessels and Lungs: The vascular system and lungs are highly fractal, with large arteries branching into smaller capillaries and bronchi splitting into alveoli. This maximizes surface area for nutrient delivery and oxygen exchange while maintaining efficient flow. ❖ FRACTALS IN MARKETS Fractal Geometry provides a unique way to understand the seemingly chaotic behavior of financial markets. While price movements may appear random, beneath this surface lies a structured order defined by self-similar patterns that repeat across different timeframes. Fractals reveal how smaller trends often replicate the behavior of larger ones, reflecting the nonlinear dynamics of market behavior. These recurring structures allow to uncover the hidden proportions that influence market movements. Mandelbrot’s work underscores the non-linear nature of financial markets, where patterns repeat across scales, and price respects proportionality over time. Fractals in Market Behavior: Mandelbrot argued that markets are not random but exhibit fractal structures—self-similar patterns that repeat across scales. Power Laws and Scaling: He demonstrated that market movements follow power laws, meaning extreme events (large price movements) occur more frequently than predicted by standard Gaussian models. Turbulence in Price Action: Mandelbrot highlighted how market fluctuations are inherently turbulent and governed by fractal geometry, which explains the clustering of volatility. 🔹 @fract's Version of Fractal Analysis I've always used non-generic Fibonacci ratios on a logarithmic scale to align with actual fractal-based time scaling. By measuring the critical points of a significant cycle from history, Fibonacci ratios uncover the probabilistic fabric of price levels and project potential targets. The integration of distance-based percentage metrics ensures that these levels remain proportional across exponential growth cycles. Unlike standard ratios, the modified Fibonacci Channel extends into repeating patterns, ensuring it captures the full scope of market dynamics across time and price. For example, the ratios i prefer follow a repetitive progression: 0, 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, 0.786, 1, (starts repeating) 1.236 , 1.382, 1.618, 1.786, 2, 2.236, and so on. This progression aligns with fractal time-based scaling, allowing the Fibonacci Channel to measure market cycles with exceptional precision. The repetitive nature of these ratios reflects the self-similar and proportional characteristics of fractal structures, which are inherently present in financial markets. Key reasons for the tool’s surprising accuracy include: Time-Based Scaling: By incorporating repeating ratios, the Fibonacci Channel adapts to the temporal dynamics of market trends, mapping critical price levels that align with the natural flow of time and price. Fractal Precision: The repetitive sequence mirrors the proportionality found in fractal systems, enabling to decode the recurring structure of market movements. Enhanced Predictability: These ratios identify probabilistic price levels and turning points with a level of detail that generic retracement tools cannot achieve. By aligning Fibonacci ratios with both trend angles and fractal time-based scaling, the Fibonacci Channel becomes a powerful predictive tool. It uncovers not just price levels but also the temporal rhythm of market movements, offering a method to navigate the interplay between chaos and hidden order. This unique blend of fractal geometry and repetitive scaling underscores the tool’s utility in accurately predicting market behavior.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
17
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSDTopic 1: Downtrend analysis Introduction: This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis. We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD) , offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns. Rant We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions. Preface Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding. This analysis incorporates: • Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1) • Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2) • Support & Resistance Levels (Blended) Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal Silver Price Peak Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle. Reversal Peak Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline. Downtrend Sequence Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows: 1. Swing Low 2. Lower High 3. Lower Low 4. Lower High 5. Lower Low Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure. Potential Reversal Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point. At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame. In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break. If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by Clemard
4
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 3Question: I'm having a problem with finding the MC candle. What should I do? Answer: There are 3 distinct signs for us to know for a fact that we are in a ranging market which has been started from shaping an MC candle: 1. Inability for the price to make a new stBoS (seeing wBoS or no BoS at all). 2. For the second time, seeing a cycle of Pump&Dump happening. 3. Price cross and close both EMAs in the opposite direction of the previous minor trend. Whenever we observe any of these three signs, it indicates that we are already in a ranging market. We should look to the left to identify our MC candle, which is usually the very first Pump & Dump that occurred recently. For Ethereum to continue its uptrend, the Pump & Dump cycle must end. The price should not drop again in the ranging area.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by forexise
Profitable Support and Resistance Strategy for Trading Forex This support and resistance strategy works on any forex pair and gold. It is simple and profitable and it is the best trading strategy for beginners. In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for trading this strategy. You will learn entry rules and important theory. First and foremost, in order to profitably trade support and resistance levels, you need to know how to identify them. You should know how to distinguish a significant structure level. I believe that you should look for a strong support or resistance strictly on a daily time frame. That structure should be historically significant. It means that it should be respected by the market at least 2 times, with a strong and clear reaction to that. Here is the example of a key support on EURUSD. The underlined key level was respected as the resistance, first, then, after a breakout, it turned into support and a strong bullish reaction followed. Above, you can see a perfect horizontal resistance level that was respected 2 time in a row in the recent past. Support and resistance levels that I showed you are truly significant. But, trading more than 9 years, I realized that the historic reaction of the market to a key level is not enough to make it reliable. I found one more important condition that strengthen a key level - a market trend. We will trade only supports that align with the market trend, meaning that we buy from such a support, if only the market is trading in a bullish trend. In the example above, NZDUSD is trading in a clear bullish trend on a daily. If we buy the market from the underlined support level, we will take a trend-following trade. That will be the best support level for buying the market from. We will trade only the resistances that align with the market trend. It means that we will sell from the resistance, only if the market is trading in a bearish trend. Look at AUDUSD on a daily. The pair is trading in a bearish trend. The resistance that I underlined will be valid for selling from, because shoring from that, we will trade with the trend. Please, realize that if you sell the market that is in an uptrend from a resistance level, you will go AGAINST the trend. The probabilities of winning such a trade will always be lower. You can see the EURNZD went through a resistance level, completely neglecting that, because the market trend was bullish. Buying a key support in a bearish trend, we will take a trade against the trend. Such trades always have lower accuracy. A key support on EURCAD was easily broken because the market was trading in a bearish trend. Now, let's discuss th e entry point, stop loss placement and target selection. Once you identified a key resistance in a bearish trend, set a sell limit order on that. On EURGBP, the market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. We see a significant resistance that meets our criteria. We should set a sell limit order on that. Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR. I simply take the default ATR settings with 14 Length. In our example, ATR is 27 pips. Our stop loss for the trade will be 14 pips above the entry level. Take profit for the trade will be the closest support. Here is the closest support that I spotted on EURGBP. It will be our TP level. You can see that the market perfectly reached the target. Once you identified a key support in a bullish trend, set a buy limit order on that. I see a perfect daily key support on EURJPY pair. The market is trading in a strong uptrend. A buy limit order should be set on that level. Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR. ATR is 139 pips. Our stop loss will be 70 pips. Take Profit will be the closest daily resistance. 311 pips of profit were made. Market trend is always your friend . The rule to trade support and resistance levels only in the side of the trend is very simple, but many newbie trades neglect that, and lose a lot of money. Try this support and resistance strategy, back test it on different forex pairs and let me know your results. Thanks for reading! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
20
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD USDCAD AUDUSD | 26/11/2024Yesterday served as a classic example of the importance of risk management in every trader's system. We initiated three trades across three different currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD) and plan to provide a detailed breakdown of each trade, including the outcomes. We began scouting for potential setups that matched our entry criteria at 10:00 EST. By 10:30 EST, a FVG had developed on GBPUSD, indicating potential selling opportunities during this trading session. All that remained was to wait for a retracement into the created FVG to secure an entry point for the trade The subsequent five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on GBPUSD, indicating that we could execute our trade upon its closure. Simultaneously, we were exploring additional trading opportunities across various currency pairs. It was then that we observed the emergence of a FVG on USDCAD, necessitating a wait for a retracement into the FVG before executing a trade. We executed the trade on GBPUSD while awaiting confirmation to enter the USDCAD position. The USDCAD setup provided an entry confirmation, indicating that we would have two trades active during this session. Additionally, the session was still ongoing when we observed that another EURUSD setup was approaching the fulfillment of our entry criteria. Immediately after initiating the trades on GBPUSD and USDCAD, we observed a significant drawdown on both. This was due to a large bearish marubozu candle printing on the USDCAD, while the GBPUSD experienced two successive bullish candles, casting both positions in an unfavorable light. While all this was happening the setup on EURUSD had fulfilled all the requirements on our checklist so we had to execute that trade as well. Our USDCAD position hit the stop loss, and shortly after, our GBPUSD position also reached the stop loss, resulting in a 2% reduction of our trading account for the day. This leaves us with just one active position on EURUSD. Being in such a position wouldn't be easy to bare if we hadn't managed risk properly. We entered these trades risking only 1% per trade and had already accepted the potential outcomes, which greatly diminished any emotional attachment to these trades. With that in mind, the EURUSD position began moving in our desired direction, which was a considerable relief after two out of three trades had reached the stop-loss point We patiently waited, and this time our patience paid off when our EURUSD position hit the take profit (TP) for a 2% gain. Thus, for the day, we experienced two losses and a win, but with effective risk management, our win offset both losses, and we broke even for the day. Do you see the importance of ensuring your wins outweigh your losses? We experienced just one win and two losses, yet our single win was more significant that it offset all the losses we had for the day
Education
by CleoFinance
5
Using Bollinger Bands to Gauge Market Trends and Volatility The US Thanksgiving holiday usually marks a quieter period for trading, as US financial markets are closed on Thursday and US traders often take the Friday off as a holiday to benefit from a long weekend. This can see both lower volume and volatility, so we thought we’d take this time to outline one of our favourite technical indicators, called Bollinger Bands. The aim is to increase your knowledge of a new indicator you may consider worth knowing, ahead of the first week of December, which is packed full of important events that may kick start markets moving again into the end of 2024. We intend to highlight how Bollinger Bands can potentially be applied to help read both current trending and volatility conditions for any asset. To help with this, we are using the US 500 index as an example to outline the type of band set-ups you can consider using within your day-to-day analysis and trading. What are Bollinger Bands? Bollinger bands are made of 3 lines – the mid-average, upper and lower band (see chart above). The mid-average is a 20 period moving average, with the upper and lower bands calculated using 2 standard deviations either side of the mid-average. If you are unsure of the concept or how to calculate 2 standard deviations, please don’t worry, the Pepperstone charting system will do this automatically for you and add them to the chart of any asset you may wish to analyse. The mid-average is used to reflect the direction of the on-going trending condition of a market. If its rising, an uptrend is in place, while if it’s falling, a downtrend is evident. How the bands act in relation to the mid-average is key when using Bollinger bands. They can often offer important confirmation of the trend and can show if acceleration phases in the price of a particular asset may be seen within that trend. The most important thing to know about Bollinger bands is that they react to increasing volatility within price. Periods of increasing volatility see both bands widening away from the mid-average, while if volatility is decreasing, they contract or draw closer to the mid-average. Let’s look at this further. What Set-Ups are We Looking For and What Do They Mean? There are 5 set-ups to be aware of when using Bollinger bands and each offer clues to the next activity in the price of a particular asset. 1st: Volatility Increasing Within a Confirmed Trend: When the mid-average is either rising (to highlight an uptrend) or falling (to reflect a downtrend), and the bands are widening to show increasing volatility within that trend, alongside the upper band being touched in an uptrend, or within a downtrend, the lower band being touched. When all the above conditions are evident, the potential is for that move to extend further than perhaps anticipated. On the US 500 Index chart above, the green arrows mark when these more aggressive trending conditions are in place. 2nd: Volatility Decreasing Within a Confirmed Trend: Where the mid-average is either rising (uptrend) or falling (downtrend), and the bands are contracting reflecting decreasing volatility within that trend. When these set-ups are in place, the speed of the recent directional move is slowing, and the possibilities are increasing for a consolidation in price. During this period, we may want to consider reducing or closing positions and reverting to the side lines, as a setback could materialise, as a reaction to the latest move. On the chart above, red arrows mark these consolidation periods. 3rd: Mid-Average Support/Resistance Holds Within Corrective Moves: Within these corrective or recovery phases after periods of increasing volatility and widening bands, we must watch how the mid-average support or resistance is defended. If the mid-average is rising, highlighting an uptrend and holding price weakness, it may resume the direction of the original trend. Similarly, when the mid-average is falling, highlighting a downtrend and holding price strength, it may continue in the same direction. However, past trends and technical indicators are not reliable predictors of future performance, and market conditions can change unexpectedly. On the new chart above, these points are marked by the blue vertical arrows. 4th: Trend Channels Form Between Mid-Average and Upper/Lower Band: When the rising mid-average holds as suggested in the third set-up above, this can see uptrend or downtrend channels form in price. In an uptrend, the rising mid-average holds price weakness and turns it higher. While this still sees price strength, volatility doesn’t increase but remains steady, reflected by rising parallel bands and support continues to be found by the rising mid-average. However, resistance materialises following tests of the upper band, for a setback towards the support of the still rising mid-average. This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks below the support offered by the rising mid-average. On the latest chart above, this is marked by the purple arrows. When the declining mid-average holds price strength, as suggested in the 3rd set-up above, this can see a downtrend channel form in price. In a downtrend, the declining mid-average holds price strength and turns it back lower. While this scenario still sees price weakness, volatility remains steady and doesn’t increase, reflected by the declining bands being parallel, and resistance continues to be found by the falling mid-average. However, tests of the lower band see support materialise and a rally in price ensues towards resistance marked by the still falling mid-average. This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks above resistance offered by the falling mid-average. This situation is the opposite of the chart above. 5th: Mid-Average Broken to See More Extended Rally/Sell-Off: Mid-average support or resistance gives way, but while price weakness or strength develops, the direction of the average doesn’t change. This sees a limited move in the direction of the mid-average break. During price weakness, if the mid-average continues to rise, the lower band can act as a support level and prompt a rally. During price strength, if the mid-average continues to fall, the upper band acts as a resistance level from which price weakness can emerge again. These signals are marked by the green rectangles in the chart above. It is important to note in this example, if an upper or lower bands is touched and then both bands start to widen alongside the mid-average changing direction, then this is highlighting the 1st set up described above, meaning we are observing increasing volatility within what is a new trending condition. In this situation, we may need to consider adjusting our trading strategy to reflect this new directional shift in price. Conclusion: While past signals within Bollinger Bands are not a guarantee of future signals, by utilising the set-ups described above, they may offer an indication of the latest trending conditions in the price of a particular asset. More importantly, they help to highlight when increasing volatility is materialising and when more sustained price moves are possibly on the cards, in the direction of the on-going trend. Also, they show when decreasing volatility can result in a period of consolidation and a reaction to the recent move due. Take a look at the Pepperstone charting system and consider whether Bollinger Bands may help you establish the next directional moves for the asset you’re trading. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Education
by Pepperstone
7
How TradingView Helps Me Not Miss TradesHey, In this video I provide several examples that help me to not miss any trading opportunities and provide me more clarity and confidence in my trading. I share my trading style, the usage of tradingview alerts and multi-timeframe analysis to time it right. Often traders struggle with missing trades, this is why you might miss them: - Lack of confidence - Lack of chart time - Lack of knowledge If you solve them one by one, your trading performance can improve fast. Kind regards, Max Nieveld
Education
by newcapitalfx
DECEMBER ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUESTHello everyone, We’re excited to announce that the ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUESTS for December 2024 are officially open! Submission Deadline: December 1st, 2024. To maintain precision and efficiency in our analysis, we ask each member to submit only one (1) Altcoin request. Guidelines for Submissions: Use proper formats like ETHBTC, ETHUSDT, or ETHUSD. Include the exchange name where the coin is listed. Please note: We’ll be analyzing a maximum of 30 Altcoins based on the requests we receive. Let’s work together to identify market opportunities and make informed decisions. For reference, check out the links to our prior analysis sessions: #January: #February: #March #April #May #June #July #August #September #October #November We deeply value your ongoing support—please take a moment to review past analyses, share your thoughts, and hit the like button to show your appreciation! Thank you all for being part of this journey. Rest assured, we’re committed to delivering top-quality insights every time. Best regards, WESLAD
Education
by weslad
154
Breakout Signals via Asymmetrical AveragingSpecial Application of Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change Indicator INDICATOR AVERAGES BULLISH AND BEARISH VOLATILITY SEPARATELY THROUGH THEIR NATIVE PAST CANDLE COUNT. NOT PERIODICALLY! Asymmetrical averaging is a versatile technique that involves assigning different lengths for independent averaging of opposite market forces. This adaptability uncovers high-probability breakout signals by establishing a threshold that filters out irrelevant fluctuations. Below, I illustrated 2 practical examples of the method applied to bullish and bearish breakout scenarios: Bullish Breakout Example: Set the bullish averaging to 30 and the bearish averaging to 1000. If the bullish average consistently surpasses the bearish threshold, it indicates robust buying momentum and a potential breakout to the upside. The extreme bearish average establishes a consistent baseline, filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on significant upward momentum to deliver reliable bullish breakout signals. Bearish Breakout Example: Set the bearish averaging to 30 and the bullish averaging to 1000. If the bearish average rises above the bullish threshold, it signals growing selling pressure and a potential breakout to the downside. The extreme bullish average provides a steady reference point, eliminating minor fluctuations and isolating significant downward momentum for dependable bearish breakout signals. LINK TO THE INDICATOR:
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by fract
1
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 2This is how we see the market. Only in three places can we see a minor trend. All in between is just price consolidation because it is a ranging market. And we expect it to happen after spotting candle "X"! For more information, please refer to Part One . When we spot a Master Candle (MC), We expect erratic behaviour from the price. Look at the white arrows to grasp what I mean by this. This is normal for us in ARZ Trading System analyses! In fact, in a ranging market, we are looking for the price to behave like this to combine it with BB and hunt the best reversal trading positions. If the price managed to stay above LTP & EMAs, we expect this pump and dump cycle to continue in the range area.
Education
by forexise
How to Spot Crypto Gems & Sleeping Giants Before Their Big PumpEveryone wants to be the genius who snagged Bitcoin BTCUSD at $1 or scooped up Ethereum ETHUSD when it was cheaper than your morning latte. Spotting a crypto gem before it rockets to the moon is the holy grail of digital asset trading, a pursuit that blends Sherlock Holmes-level detective work with a pinch of gambling spirit. Before you dive into the crypto rabbit hole armed with little more than Twitter/X tips and Reddit whispers, let’s talk strategy. Because while you might get lucky chasing the next moonshot, a structured approach will give you far better odds. Let’s break it down 🤸‍♂️. What Exactly Is a “Crypto Gem”? First, let’s define the term. A crypto gem (or a sleeping giant) is not just any token with a buzz around it or an active Telegram group with “early adopters.” In a nutshell, it’s a project with solid fundamentals, a strong community and the potential to deliver real-world utility or disrupt an existing market. Think of it as a startup stock with global access, high risk and the potential for astronomical returns—assuming it doesn’t implode under its own hype. Spotting one in the vast sea of cryptocurrencies requires more than just coffee-fueled optimism and good vibes. You’ll need a keen eye, a skeptical mindset and the ability to tune out the noise of endless shilling. Step One: Research the Team Behind the Token When it comes to crypto, the team is almost everything. This isn’t just about having developers with LinkedIn profiles full of buzzwords; it’s about real-world credibility. Are they public and transparent? Anonymous developers might sound edgy, but they’re also a flight risk. Google “rug pull” if you need a refresher on why trust matters. Do they have experience in blockchain, fintech or relevant fields? A team with Silicon Valley cred or a history of building successful projects in tech (or even better—Big Tech) is a big green flag. Are there notable backers? Big-shot venture capital firms like a16z lend credibility. That said, even legends like Sequoia Capital got burned by FTX, so don’t let big names be your only criteria. Step Two: The Whitepaper—Your Cheat Sheet Think of the whitepaper as the project’s pitch deck, manifesto and homework assignment rolled into one. A good whitepaper will answer three critical questions and a great one won’t let you fall asleep before you finish it: What problem is the project solving? No one needs another tokenized version of something that already exists. Look for innovation, not replication. How does the technology work? You don’t have to be a blockchain engineer, but if the tech sounds like sci-fi or is overly vague, it might be all smoke and no fire. What’s the roadmap? This is big—promises of “future features” without timelines or specifics are red flags. A realistic, actionable plan is what you want. Pro tip: If the whitepaper reads like it was run through Google Translate three times, run. Or if it reads dry, dull and plain boring, it might’ve been churned out by none other than OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT. In this case, also run. Step Three: Community and Hype—The Double-Edged Sword The crypto community is both its greatest strength and its Achilles’ heel. A strong, engaged community can help drive adoption but blind hype can also inflate worthless projects. Check social media channels. Look at the size and engagement of the community. Thousands of followers mean nothing if they’re all bots. Beware of echo chambers. If every post is a variation of “TO THE MOON 🚀,” you’re probably dealing with a FOMO factory rather than a serious project. Gauge the vibe. Are people discussing real use cases, or is it all price speculation? Thoughtful discussions are a green flag. Step Four: Tokenomics—Follow the Money Tokenomics is the economic blueprint of a cryptocurrency. It answers key questions about supply, demand and utility and helps you understand where the crypto belongs. Is it memecoin or a DeFi token ? Or maybe something else ? What’s the total supply? A limited supply can create scarcity (à la Bitcoin), but infinite supply tokens often struggle to maintain value. What’s the circulating supply? Tokens locked up in vesting schedules or owned by the team can flood the market later, tanking the price. How is the token used? If the token has no clear utility, it’s just Monopoly money with better branding. Bonus points for projects that have thought about deflationary mechanisms, staking rewards, or other incentives for holding the token long-term. Step Five: Partnerships and Real-World Applications You know what’s better than promises? Receipts. Partnerships with established companies, platforms, or organizations lend credibility and show that the project is more than just a good idea on paper. Is the project solving real problems? A blockchain that speeds up supply chain logistics or enables decentralized finance for underserved communities has a tangible use case. Are there active collaborations? Look for integration with existing platforms, APIs, or other cryptocurrencies. Do the partnerships drive adoption? True partnerships should go beyond brand association and actively expand the project’s user base, utility, or reach. The Red Flags You Can’t Ignore Now that you know what to look for, let’s talk about what to avoid. Some warning signs are so obvious they might as well be written in neon: Overpromising. Claims of “guaranteed profits” or “the next Bitcoin” are the crypto equivalent of snake oil. Poor transparency. If the team, roadmap or financials are vague, think twice before you make your move. Lack of progress. If a project has been “in development” for years with nothing to show, you’re most likely looking at vaporware. The Role of Timing Spotting a gem isn’t just about finding a good project—it’s about finding it at the right time, before the pack. Ideally, you want to enter before the masses catch on but after the project has proven its viability. Pre-launch phases and early adoption stages often offer the best opportunities. To borrow a quote from hedge fund boss David Tepper: “I am the animal at the head of the pack. I either get eaten or I get the good grass.” That said, even if you manage to find that one true gem, it might take years for its potential to unfurl and take you to the moon. On another note, something fundamental might go wrong along the way—the project might change course and abandon its original mission, vision and goals. Wrapping It All Up Spotting a crypto gem before it hits the moon is hard work. And it mostly comes down to hours and hours of preparation, research and analysis before you hit the exchange and grab the coin. Also, not every gem will be a 100x moonshot, and that’s okay. Just make sure you set your priorities straight and align your expectations to the most volatile market out there. So, what’s your crypto gem you wanna tell us about? Or you’re still looking for it? Share your thoughts and tips in the comments—let’s uncover the next moonshot together!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
20
US Markets Defy Tradition: Stocks and Bonds Rise Together◉ Introduction The relationship between bond yields and stock prices is crucial in understanding financial markets. Generally, bond yields and stock prices exhibit an inverse relationship, meaning that as bond yields rise, stock prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This dynamic is influenced by several factors, including opportunity costs, corporate financing costs, investor behaviour, and economic conditions. ◉ Opportunity Cost of Investing in Equities ● Definition: Bond yields represent the return on fixed-income investments. When bond yields increase, they provide a benchmark for what investors expect from equities. ● Impact: Higher bond yields make stocks less attractive unless they can offer significantly higher returns. ● Example: If a 10-year government bond yields 7%, investors may require at least a 12% return from stocks (including a risk premium of around 5%) to justify the additional risk. If expected stock returns fall below this level, investors may shift their capital from stocks to bonds, leading to a decline in stock prices. ◉ Corporate Financing Costs ● Definition: Rising bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for companies. ● Impact: Higher interest expenses can reduce corporate profits and cash flow, leading to lower stock valuations. ● Example: If a company’s debt interest rises from 5% to 8%, its net income may decrease significantly due to higher interest payments. This can prompt investors to reassess the company’s stock value negatively. ◉ Investor Behaviour and Market Dynamics ● Definition: Investor sentiment plays a significant role in the bond-stock relationship. ● Impact: When bond yields rise, many investors may sell stocks in favour of bonds, seeking safer returns. ● Example: During periods of economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, rising bond yields led many investors to move capital into bonds, resulting in significant declines in stock indices like the S&P 500. ◉ Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations ● Definition: Bond yields are influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic growth. ● Impact: Rising inflation typically leads to higher bond yields, which can negatively impact stock prices as investors anticipate reduced future earnings. ● Example: Following the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation kept bond yields down, supporting rising stock prices as investors sought higher returns from equities amid low yields on bonds. ◉ Historical Context and Trends ● Definition: Historically, lower bond yields correlate with higher stock prices due to lower discount rates on future cash flows. ● Impact: Low borrowing costs encourage corporate investment and growth. ● Example: The bull market from 2009 to 2020 was fueled by persistently low Treasury yields, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and reinvest in growth initiatives. ◉ The Role of Defaults in Bond Yields ● Definition: The probability of default significantly influences bond yields. ● Impact: Increased default risk leads to higher required yields on corporate bonds, prompting a flight to safer government bonds. ● Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, rising default expectations for many companies resulted in corporate bonds offering higher yields as investors sought safety in government securities. ◉ Recent Market Trends: A Post-Election Analysis The recent market trends following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have been quite remarkable. Typically, when equity prices rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, over the last month, both equity prices and bond yields have increased simultaneously. This unusual phenomenon can be attributed to investor expectations of Trump's economic policies. The equity market has experienced a significant surge, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. This rally is largely driven by expectations of: ● Corporate Tax Reductions: Expected to boost corporate earnings and drive economic growth. ● Infrastructure Spending: Anticipated to create new job opportunities and stimulate economic activity. ● Deregulation: Expected to reduce compliance costs and promote business growth. On the other hand, the bond market has experienced a significant rise in yields, driven by investor expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates. This is largely due to Trump's economic policies, which are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs due to unchanged or higher interest rates, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise. ◉ Conclusion The recent rise in bond yields and stock prices marks a significant change from past trends. This shift shows how economic policy, investor feelings, and market forces interact, emphasizing the constantly changing nature of global financial markets.
SP:SPXEducation
by NaranjCapital
How To Use Multi-Timeframe AnalysisHey, In this video, I dive into the methods of multi-timeframe analysis, exploring how to use daily, weekly, and monthly charts alongside intraday charts like the 4-hour to gain a clearer picture of price movement. Multi-timeframe analysis helps you view the same data through different lenses, allowing you to make predictions across various time horizons. For example, a weekly trend or a monthly move can appear as a complete trend on lower timeframes. By integrating these perspectives, you can better understand what price action is indicating and make informed decisions. Kind regards, Max
Education
by newcapitalfx
Benchmarking a trend with a moving average (Example: Gold)They say a bad workman blames his tools. Quite often, good work means using the right tools. In a trend you need to use trend-following tools - and the most famous indicator is the moving average. When it's a fast-moving trend, you need to use averages taken over shorter periods (e.g. 20 day SMA > 200 day SMA). Likewise a slower trend needs averages taken over longer periods (e.g. 20 week > 50 day). Gold has just bounced off the 20 week moving average for the fourth time. The market is clearly benchmarking this trend according to this specific average. So while the price is above this moving average the trend is intact - and when it eventually breaks below it will be an important signal that the strength of the trend has weakened - and could be about to reverse. On the daily chart a rising trendline has broken but we would argue the reason the rebound off the low has been so strong is because the price rebounded off the 20 week moving average. For now our bias is bullish but there are no good risk:reward opportunities to buy and it remains unclear whether the short term uptrend can continue after the trendline break
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
8
GOLD: Trump tariff threat lift XAAUSD, focus shift to Fed Mints Fundamental Overview🌐 ➡️Gold buyers try their luck ahead of Fed Minutes Gold price extended the previous day’s corrective downside and reached multi-day lows before drawing strong support from a fresh flight to safety wave, triggered by the latest post by US President-elect Donald Trump on Truth Social. ➡️Trump pledged to announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China once he takes over his office on January 20. In response, the Chinese ambassador to Australia warned that “US policy on trade with China and other countries will have an impact.” ➡️Mounting concerns surrounding a looming global trade war dent risk sentiment, ramping safe-haven flows into the US Dollar (USD) and the traditional safety bet Gold price. However, the renewed USD demand and rebounding US Treasury bond yields limit Gold buyers’ enthusiasm as they await the Fed Minutes for fresh signals on the expected December interest rate cut. ➡️CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month. ➡️Additionally, waning geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain a headwind for the bright metal. A senior Israeli official told Reuters on Monday that the Israeli cabinet will convene on Tuesday to approve a Lebanon ceasefire deal. Another Israeli official told Reuters the cabinet would convene to discuss a deal that could be cemented in the coming days. ➡️Gold price was thrown under the bus on Monday even as the USD and the US Treasury bond yields fell sharply on the news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary. ➡️Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US bond market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by SadarExplore
Trader Health: Preventing Common IssuesThe life of a trader, while exhilarating and financially rewarding, can also be fraught with unique health challenges that often go unrecognized until it’s too late. Unlike traditional jobs that offer the flexibility of sick leave and ensure a steady income during times of illness, traders operate within a high-stakes environment that demands their constant attention and decision-making. This reality places the responsibility of health maintenance squarely on the shoulders of the individual. In this post, we will explore some of the most prevalent health issues faced by traders and offer practical steps for prevention and management. THE VITAL IMPORTANCE OF HEALTH FOR TRADERS 📍 Eye Strain and Visual Fatigue One of the most frequent complaints among traders is eye strain, resulting from prolonged hours spent gazing at computer screens. The desire to capitalize on market opportunities often leads to extended periods of focus, which can take a toll on one's vision. To combat this common issue, traders are encouraged to: 🔹 Take Regular Breaks: Step away from the computer every two hours for at least 15 minutes to give your eyes a rest. 🔹 Utilize Diverse Strategies: Employ trading strategies that require varying levels of focus, such as alternating between short- and long-term trades. Utilizing indicators that visualize data with color-coded areas can also help reduce mental fatigue. 🔹 Practice Eye Exercises: Remember to blink frequently and shift your gaze to distant objects to alleviate strain. 🔹 Seek Medical Advice: At the first sign of visual discomfort, it’s wise to consult a healthcare professional and consider taking a break from trading. 📍 Musculoskeletal Disorders Another significant health concern for traders is the risk of musculoskeletal disorders, including back pain and arthritis, often resulting from poor posture and extended sedentary behavior. To mitigate these risks, consider the following recommendations: 🔸 Maintain Proper Posture: Sit upright with a supportive chair and keep your screen at eye level to reduce neck strain. 🔸 Strengthen Core Muscles: Engage in regular exercises to strengthen back muscles and improve overall posture. 🔸 Change Positions Frequently: Avoid staying in one position for too long; adjust your seating arrangement or take short walks to foster movement. 📍 Psychological Well-being Traders are also susceptible to psychological challenges, including anxiety, sleep disturbances, and addictive behaviors. The pressure to perform can create a vicious cycle of overwork and emotional strain. Address this by: ⚫️ Recognizing Signs of Stress: Be aware of the symptoms of burnout and take proactive steps to manage your workload and emotional well-being. ⚫️ Diversifying Activities: Engage in hobbies unrelated to trading to provide mental relief and prevent burnout. ⚫️ Building a Support Network: Establish connections with fellow traders or mentors to share experiences and cultivate a positive outlook on trading. 📍 Combating Harmful Habit In an effort to cope with the stresses of trading, some may turn to alcohol or excessive caffeine. While these substances may offer temporary relief, they can lead to detrimental health effects. Instead, opt for healthier leisure activities that promote relaxation and physical health, such as: ▶️ Physical Exercise: Incorporate regular physical activity into your routine, whether through swimming, cycling, or even visiting a shooting range. ▶️ Mindfulness and Relaxation Techniques: Engage in practices such as yoga or meditation to enhance mental clarity and resilience. 📍 The Importance of Physical Activity Prolonged periods of inactivity can lead to various health problems, including cardiovascular issues, obesity, and muscle atrophy. To counteract these effects, traders should aim to: 🔔 Break Up Sitting Time: Set a timer to remind yourself to stand and stretch or walk around every hour. 🔔 Engage in Regular Exercise: Incorporate both cardiovascular and strength-training workouts into your weekly schedule to maintain overall health. 📍 Conclusion In the dynamic world of trading, safeguarding your health is paramount for sustained success and well-being. The rigors of this profession present unique physical and psychological challenges that, if left unaddressed, can lead to serious health implications. Ultimately, recognizing the signs of stress and prioritizing self-care is essential for achieving a balanced and productive trading career. As we navigate the complexities of the financial markets, let us also commit to prioritizing our health. The journey of a trader should not only be measured in financial gains but also in the quality of life lived. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
7
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part TwoIn this section, we will combine minor structure and momentum, along with MC and Bollinger Bands. We observed an uptrend, and then suddenly Candle "A" appeared. This indicates that the previous candle is a strong candidate for becoming an MC for us. Now, we need to analyze the market for signs that it may be transitioning into a ranging market. As we see: - Price movement from #1 to #2, is the same as #2 to #3. No momentum in a specific direction which is a clear sign of a ranging market. It confirmed MC for us. - The movement from #3 to #4 has just reversed the previous bearish candle. Nothing much. Again we are inside a ranging market. - Movement from #4 to #5 is equal to #5 to #6. Again it's ranging! Awesome! - Candle #7 is good for ranging, and we expect such sharp movements in a ranging market. But we do not expect a continuation of strong downward movement after it. If such a thing happens and could break both the low of candle #7 and the LTP level, we expect the price to continue a downtrend and create a stBoS downward in the future.
Education
by forexise
The Basics of Supply and Demand and Master Pattern TradingOk y'all, this is my first video attempt to explain the basics of how I trade. I've had lots of people ask me how it works, so figured it be easiest to make a quick video tutorial. With every trading/investing video comes a Disclaimer: This is for educational use ONLY and is not investment advice! Lol. I've learned that part of getting better at anything involves teaching others what you know in order to resell yourself on your craft. Keep in mind I am by no means a master of this. I've been a student of the game for a decade now and learning never stops. Have a great day!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tiger_blah
2
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part OneWhen analyzing momentum, the most important question to consider is: Where should I focus my analysis of momentum? Many traders often find themselves confused by the concept of "momentum" as they try to derive meaning from every single candlestick movement. The straightforward answer is: Analyze momentum when the price is at key levels or is getting close to them! In particular, for minor structures (trends), you should pay close attention to momentum near the 13 and 20 EMAs, as we do in ARZ Trading System. Keynotes: a minor trend is still valid, if these two key points are continuously happening: 1. We always expect a loss of momentum for price when approaching the key levels, and gaining momentum when it's moving away from them, in the direction of the trend. 2. A very important sign of gaining momentum is crossing and closing the whole previous candle(s). Let's analyze this chart: - It is obvious that candles #1 to #3 are showing a loss of momentum, but they are far from key levels and it just might mean a retracement, which happened. But again it might not retrace at all! - from #3 to #4, we see price is gaining momentum, which is not good! so both key levels could easily break, which happened. But again in #5 and #6, we see the price losing momentum in the opposite direction of the previous downtrend, and gaining it in the direction of the minor downtrend. so everything is good. - Again #7 confirms the momentum in the direction of minor downtrend. - In retracement up until #8, the price is gaining momentum upward, which is not good. But candles #9 through #10 again are in our favour. - the correction to #11 is not looking good for a downtrend, and in the next candles, to #13 we are not convinced that sellers are stronger. So, we are cautious here. And the price finally gains momentum upward and we reach #14. - From #15 to #16, momentum is the same for both buyers and sellers. It is a tight range and can do nothing until we see a clear sign of gaining momentum (or losing) in one direction. And the sign came in the shape of candle #17. If this tight range were to continue, it should have been a bullish strong candle.
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by forexise