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Trend Analysis

Visualize $TSLA CALL pricing skew due to the upcoming earningsLet’s take a look at our new tradingview options screener indicator to see what we observe, as the options chain data has recently been updated. When we look at the screener, we can immediately see that NASDAQ:TSLA has an exceptional Implied Volatility Rank value of over 100, which is extremely high. This is clearly due to the upcoming earnings report on July 23rd. As we proceed, we notice that Tesla's Implied Volatility Index is also high, over 70. This means that not only the relative but also the absolute implied volatility of Tesla is high. Because the IVX value is above 30, Tesla’s IV Rank is displayed with a distinguishable black background. This favors credit strategies such as iron condors, broken wing butterflies, strangles, or simple short options. Next, let’s examine how this IV index value has changed over the past five days. We can see it has increased by more than 6%, indicating an upward trend as we approach the earnings report. In the next cell, we see a significant vertical price skew. Specifically, at 39 days to expiration, call options are 84% more expensive than put options at the same distance. This indicates that market participants are pricing in a significant upward movement in the options chain. The call skew is so pronounced that at 39 days to expiration, the 16 delta call value exits the expected range. This signifies a substantial delta skew twist, which I will show you visually. We see a horizontal IV index skew between the third and fourth weeks in the options chain. This means the front weekly IVX is lower than the IVX for the following week, which may favor calendar or diagonal strategies. Hovering over this with the mouse reveals it’s around the third and fourth week. In the last cell, we observe that there’s a horizontal IVX skew not just in weekly expirations but also between the second and third monthly expirations. Now, let’s see how these values appear visually on Tesla’s chart using our Options Overlay Indicator. On the right panel, the previously mentioned values are displayed in more detail when you hover over them with the mouse. The really exciting part is setting the 16 delta curve and seeing the extent of the upward shift in options pricing. This significant skew is also visible at closer delta values. When we enable the expected move and standard deviation curves, it immediately becomes clear what this severe vertical pricing skew in favor of call options means. Practically, market participants are significantly pricing in upward movement right after the earnings report. Hovering over the colored labels associated with the expirations displays all data precisely, showing the number of days until expiration and the high implied volatility index value for that expiration. Additionally, a green curve indicating overpricing due to extra interest is displayed. Weekly expiration horizontal IVX skew values appear in purple, and those affected by monthly skew are shown in turquoise blue. The 'Lite' version of our indicators is available for free to everyone, where you can also view Tesla as demonstrated. Pro indicators are available more than 150 US market symbols like SPY, S&P500, Nvidia, bonds, etfs and many others. Trade options like a pro with TanukiTrade Option Indicators for TradingView. Thank you for your attention.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by TanukiTrade
How to Plot Head & Shoulders Pattern on TradingViewWelcome back, Traders! We’re excited to have you here on TradingView where we share valuable trading insights and educational posts to help you succeed in the markets. Today, we’re diving into one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis: the Head and Shoulders pattern. Understanding and identifying this pattern can significantly improve your trading strategy, whether you’re dealing with forex, stocks, or commodities. What is the Head and Shoulders Pattern? The Head and Shoulders pattern is a bearish reversal pattern that indicates a potential end to an uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. It consists of three peaks: Left Shoulder: The first peak followed by a decline. Head: The highest peak followed by a decline. Right Shoulder: A peak similar in height to the left shoulder, followed by a decline. The neckline is the support line that connects the lows after the left shoulder and the head. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern: Identify the Pattern: Look for the three distinct peaks with the head being the highest. Draw the Neckline: Connect the lows after the left shoulder and the head to form the neckline. Entry Point: Enter a short position when the price breaks below the neckline. Target: Measure the distance from the head to the neckline and subtract this distance from the breakout point to set your target. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the right shoulder to manage your risk. Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern signaling the end of a downtrend and the start of an uptrend. It consists of three troughs: Left Shoulder: The first trough followed by a rise. Head: The lowest trough followed by a rise. Right Shoulder: A trough similar in depth to the left shoulder, followed by a rise. The neckline is the resistance line connecting the highs after the left shoulder and the head. How to Trade the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: Identify the Pattern: Look for the three distinct troughs with the head being the lowest. Draw the Neckline: Connect the highs after the left shoulder and the head to form the neckline. Entry Point: Enter a long position when the price breaks above the neckline. Target: Measure the distance from the head to the neckline and add this distance to the breakout point to set your target. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the right shoulder to manage your risk. Follow us on TradingView for more helpful ideas and educational posts! Stay tuned as we continue to share insights that will help you on your trading journey. Happy trading! - BK Trading Academy
Editors' picks
Education
by BKTradingAcademy
7
Chart Time SettingsIn the chart analysis tool that I use, selecting the right time frame is crucial for correctly interpreting and analyzing market movements. Unfortunately, I cannot upload 1-minute charts on TradingView, but I can start from a 15-minute interval. This is helpful, but I particularly recommend using shorter time frames like 1-minute or 5-minute charts for day trading. What are Time Settings? Time settings determine the period that a single candle or bar on the chart represents. For example, a 1-hour chart shows price movements in hourly intervals, with each candle representing the price action of one hour. Available Time Frames A wide range of time frames, from minutes to months, is available. Here are some of the most common options: 15 Minutes (15M): Popular among day traders who execute multiple trades within a day. (CAUTION - For the 15-minute interval, one should be able to wait 2-5 days - always conduct analysis using 1-minute and 5-minute charts for day trading.) 1 Hour (1H): For traders who want to recognize intraday patterns without tracking every movement. I never use the 1-hour view. Does anyone use 1-hour charts? What experiences have you had with them, and how long do you hold trades? 4 Hours (4H): A good compromise for swing traders who hold trades for several days. 1 Day (1D): Provides a comprehensive overview for long-term strategies. 1 Week (1W): Suitable for long-term investors observing larger trends. 1 Month (1M): Ideal for analyzing very long-term trends. How Do I Choose the Right Time Frame? Choosing the right time frame depends on my trading strategy and time horizon. Here are some of my tips: Scalping and Short-Term Trading: For scalping and short-term trades, I recommend shorter time frames like 1-minute (1M) or 5-minute (5M). These help in capturing small market movements and reacting quickly to changes. Although I cannot upload these time frames, I use them for detailed analysis. Day Trading: For day trading, I use the 15-minute (15M) charts, (1M and 5M) charts to analyze the entire trading day and respond to intraday trends. Swing Trading: For swing trading, I use longer time frames like 15-minute and 4-hour (4H) charts, and 1-day (1D) charts to follow trends over several days or weeks. Long-Term Investments: For long-term investments, weekly (1W) or monthly (1M) charts are ideal for identifying major trends and long-term movements. Multi-Time Frame Analysis A proven method is multi-time frame analysis. I examine the same market in different time frames to get a more comprehensive picture. For example, I identify a long-term trend on the daily chart and then use the 15-minute chart to find precise entry and exit points. Conclusion The right time setting can make the difference between a successful and an unsuccessful trade. Although I cannot upload 1-minute charts, I experiment with various time frames to find the one that best suits my strategy. By understanding and applying different time settings, I can improve my trading decisions and refine my market analyses.
Education
by myforexblog
How to Trade on Support and Resistance ReversalsHow to Trade on Support and Resistance Reversals Trading in the financial markets can be a complex endeavour, but it may become more manageable when traders have a solid grasp of support and resistance levels. Recognising support and resistance reversals is a crucial skill that may enhance one's trading performance. In this FXOpen article, we will learn the types of support and resistance and consider some trading strategies based on market reversals. Recognising Support and Resistance Reversals It’s unlikely you will need to ask, “What are support and resistance lines?” Still, let’s refresh your memory. A support line is a level at which an asset's price tends to find buying interest, preventing it from falling further. In other words, it's where demand for the asset is strong enough to counteract selling pressure. Traders often identify support as a potential point when going long or a take-profit target when selling. It can be formed at various price points on a chart and can be horizontal and diagonal (trendlines). A resistance line is a level at which an asset's price tends to encounter selling pressure, preventing it from rising further. It represents a point where supply exceeds demand, leading to potential reversals or pullbacks. Traders often identify resistance as a potential point when going short or a take-profit target when buying. Like support, resistance levels can also be horizontal, diagonal, or coincide with round numbers. Support and Resistance: Types There are various types of support and resistance, including trendlines, round numbers, Fibonacci retracements and extensions, pivot points, and dynamic lines. Trendlines Trendlines are one of the most fundamental tools in technical analysis. They are lines drawn on a price chart to connect consecutive lows and consecutive highs to identify the direction of the market. Trendlines act as support and resistance, helping traders identify potential reversal points and trend continuations. The intersection of price movements with trendlines often signifies significant market sentiment shifts. There are three fundamental types of trendlines: - Uptrend Lines: Uptrend lines connect a series of higher lows and function as support levels on a price chart. These lines are indicative of bullish market conditions, signifying a consistent upward trajectory in asset value. Traders often use uptrend lines to identify potential entry points for long positions. - Downtrend Lines: Downtrend lines link lower highs and act as resistance in technical analysis. They reflect bearish market conditions, suggesting a persistent downward trend in asset value. Downtrend lines are valuable for traders looking to establish potential entry points for short positions. - Sideways or Range-Bound Lines: Sideways or range-bound lines connect comparable highs and lows, illustrating a market in a state of consolidation or trading within a defined range. These lines indicate the lack of strong trends in either direction and are essential for traders to recognise when markets are moving sideways. Closest Swing Points Traders can draw support and resistance through the most recent swing point. - Support: To find a support level based on the closest swing point, traders identify a recent swing low. This low point is where buying interest emerged previously. - Resistance: To determine a resistance level based on the closest swing point, traders look for the recent swing high. This high point is where selling pressure halted a previous uptrend. Round Numbers Round numbers are psychological levels that often serve as support or resistance. They tend to attract the attention of traders and investors due to their simplicity and significance. For example, in a currency pair like EUR/USD, a round number might be 1.2000. These levels can act as barriers where traders make decisions to buy or sell, making them essential reference points in technical analysis. Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions Fibonacci retracement and extension levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence and are used to identify potential support and resistance zones. The most commonly used Fibonacci retracements are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Traders apply these levels to charts to determine where price reversals or corrections may occur. Fibonacci extensions are key tools in technical analysis used to project potential price targets beyond the original trend. The most commonly used levels are 161.8%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. Pivot Points Pivot points are calculated levels that help traders identify critical support and resistance points. They are used to determine potential price reversals or breakouts. Traders often look at multiple pivot point levels, including support 1 (S1), support 2 (S2), resistance 1 (R1), and resistance 2 (R2), to gauge the market's sentiment and make trading decisions accordingly. Dynamic Lines Dynamic support and resistance are not fixed on the chart but change with market conditions. Common examples include moving averages and Bollinger Bands. Moving averages can act as dynamic support or resistance depending on their positioning relative to the current price: if the price is above the MA, the moving average serves as a support, while if the price is below the MA, the moving average can be used as a resistance. Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band (the moving average) and upper and lower bands that represent dynamic support and resistance zones based on price volatility. Trading Strategies for Support and Resistance Reversals Below, you will find two of the most straightforward strategies you can apply to various markets and timeframes. Bounce Trading Strategy Objective: To capitalise on confirmed support or resistance by entering positions when the price bounces off these levels. Entry Point: - Long Trade (Support Bounce): Traders may wait for the market to approach a strong support level. They always look for a confirmation signal, including a bullish candlestick pattern, such as a hammer or engulfing pattern, or a technical indicator. You may enter the trade at the opening of the next candle after the bullish confirmation signal. - Short Trade (Resistance Bounce): The trader may wait for the market to approach a robust resistance level. They always look for confirmation with a bearish candlestick pattern, such as a shooting star or bearish engulfing pattern, near the resistance level or a technical indicator. You may enter the trade at the opening of the next candle after the bearish confirmation signal. Exit Point: - Take Profit: Traders might set a take-profit order at a reasonable distance from their entry point, aiming for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. - Stop-Loss: One common practice you may consider is to place a stop-loss order just below (for long trades) or above (for short trades) the support or resistance level you are trading. This may help protect against significant losses if the market moves against your trade. Look at the chart above. A trader could initiate two trades on the support level. In the first one, they could get confirmation from consecutive candles with small or non-existing lower shadows and rising bullish volumes. In the second trade, they may get confirmation from the Bollinger Bands as the lower band is aligned with the support level. Pullback and Retest Strategy Objective: To enter trades on pullbacks to previously broken support or resistance levels, which may now act as new support or resistance. Entry Point: - Long Trade (Resistance Turned Support): Traders wait for the price to break significant resistance and retrace to retest it as new support. To confirm a successful retest, you may look for reduced volume and bullish candlestick patterns. To enter a trade, you may wait for the next candle after the retest confirmation to open. - Short Trade (Support Turned Resistance): Traders wait for the price to break substantial support and retrace to retest it as new resistance. You may ask, “If the price is dancing above the support zone but hasn't broken below it, what should we do?” To make the strategy work, you will need to wait for a breakout and confirm the retest. To get a confirmation signal, you may look for reduced volume and bearish candlestick patterns. An entry point may be initiated when the next candle after the retest confirmation opens. Exit Point: - Take Profit: You may set a take-profit order based on your desired risk-reward ratio, considering the potential price target based on the recent significant swing point. - Stop-Loss: Traders usually place a stop-loss order just below (for long trades) or above (for short trades) the retested support or resistance level to manage risk. In the chart above, a trader could enter a trade on a retest of a broken resistance level that turned into support. Rising bullish volumes on a support point could serve as a confirmation signal. Common Pitfalls to Avoid Trading on support and resistance reversals may be a rewarding strategy, but it's essential to steer clear of common pitfalls that may lead to losses. Here are three significant pitfalls to avoid: - Overtrading. As the support and resistance reversal strategies are straightforward and conditions for them can be found on almost any market and any timeframe, traders may fall into an overtrading trap. Overtrading occurs when traders execute an excessive number of trades, often driven by the fear of missing out or the desire for quick profits. - Ignoring Fundamental Analysis. While technical analysis plays a crucial role in trading support and resistance reversals, ignoring fundamental analysis can be a significant pitfall. Economic data releases, geopolitical events, or company news can lead to unexpected market moves. - Neglecting Risk Management. Neglecting risk management is a critical mistake that traders should avoid, regardless of their strategies. Failing to implement proper risk management can result in substantial losses that outweigh gains. Final Thoughts Understanding the various types of support and resistance, including trendlines, round numbers, Fibonacci retracements and extensions, pivot points, and dynamic levels, is essential for traders and analysts to make informed decisions in the financial markets. These tools offer valuable insights into potential market reversals and overall market sentiment. Support vs resistance trading strategies are straightforward and may be applied to almost any market. If you want to test them, open an FXOpen account and enjoy trading in over 600 markets on the TickTrader platform! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Education
by FXOpen
8
WHAT IS APY IN CRYPTO ?💹 APY (Annual Percentage Yield) is the amount of money an investor will earn in a year if the money is reinvested after each accrual period. The calculation formula is compound interest. In cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance (DeFi), APY is used to express the returns users can get from staking, liquidity mining and other types of income farming. 📍 UNDERSTANDING APY CALCULATION APY allows users to understand what annual returns they can expect from their investments, taking into account reinvestment of interest earned. This helps to compare different investment opportunities in cryptocurrency startups: ➡️ Comparing the returns of different cryptocurrencies in staking, income farming on one exchange. ➡️ Comparing the yield of staking one coin on different exchanges. The rate, which is calculated using the simple interest formula, only takes into account the initial investment amount. In comparison, APY gives a more accurate idea of how much an investor will earn, taking into account the re-investment of interest 📍 THE APY CALCULATION FORMULA IS: APY is the Annual Percentage Yield r is the interest rate per period (in decimal form, e.g. 0.05 for 5%) n is the number of times interest is compounded per year For example, if an investment has an annual interest rate of 5% compounded quarterly, the APY would be: APY = (1 + 0.05/4)^(4) - 1 = 5.127% This means that over a year, the investment would earn an effective annual return of 5.127%, taking into account the compounding effect. Note that this formula assumes that the interest is compounded at the end of each period, which is often referred to as "compounding frequency". The more frequently interest is compounded, the higher the APY will be. 📍 THREE CRUCIAL POINTS TO KEEP IN MIND ARE: 1️⃣ Frequency of interest accrual. The more frequently interest is accrued, the higher the APY will be, even if the nominal interest rate remains the same. 2️⃣ Reinvestment. APY assumes that all interest earned is reinvested, which increases the total return. 3️⃣ Transparency. APY provides a more accurate representation of potential returns compared to a simple interest rate. APY is a forecast and actual returns may vary. It may be affected by market volatility, changes in interest rates, risks associated with a particular investment product. APY is specified for each product and each coin separately, you can find this information on the website of the cryptocurrency exchange. To understand the amount of earnings, you need to know the period of accrual of income. For example, accrual in staking can occur both every minute and every day. In addition to APY, there is another key rate to consider: APR (Annual Percentage Rate). Similar to APY, APR is a rate that measures the yield of an investment, but it is calculated using the simple interest formula. While APR is commonly associated with the cost of borrowing at an interest rate, it can also be applied to investments. Like APY, APR is not a fixed value, as it can fluctuate based on network activity and other factors. 📍 CONCLUSION APY is a critical parameter that represents the return on an asset with compound interest, taking into account the reinvestment of profits after each accrual. This metric is essential when evaluating the feasibility of staking or other income-generating opportunities. For instance, it can help you decide whether to stake Coin A or convert it to Coin B and stake it instead. By comparing APY rates for different coins and staking options, you can make informed decisions about where to allocate your assets to maximize your returns. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3
A Simple/Consistent Trading Strategy Using AnchorBars For AllI was talking with a friend today and he stated he just wanted something simple and consistent. He stated he was using Weekly, Daily, and 30 Min charts to try to confirm his trade setups. He did not want to swing for trades too often - only when the Weekly, Daily, 30 Min charts aligned. I've build multiple systems somewhat like the one I'm showing you in this video. The trick to managing this system is to avoid consolidation periods. When price settles into an extended sideways range - you want to cut your trading down to almost NOTHING and wait for a more defined trend. Here you go. Simple and easy. If you don't understand AnchorBars, you can learn more on my other TradingView videos. Go Get Some...
AMEX:DIAEducation
by BradMatheny
2
Elementary Bitcoin in its entirety for beginnersUnlike all kinds of cryptocurrencies, the issue of Bitcoin is limited by the condition of a regular reduction in the size of the mining reward. Naturally, the American dollar will always be issued without any special restrictions. This allows you to make a basic calculation: “infinity” divided by “21 million” = “infinity”. That is, theoretically, in the infinite future, Bitcoin can cost as much as you like; based on general data, you can already calculate the nearest maximum target of $120k at the end of 2025. Of course people won't spend all their dollars on Bitcoin because they have other needs to survive. People will buy and sell Bitcoin to achieve their budget goals. Therefore, the price will not rise every day. Looking at the figure, you can see three symbolic exponents (blue at the bottom, red at the top and orange in the middle) the struggle between buyers and sellers unfolds. But this is not a fact that the price will reach them, since the real exponential median is extended into eternity, or at least for the next hundred years until all Bitcoin is mined. The most likely upward trend will fluctuate around a straight white line. I think the price will charge below this line and shoot exponentially much higher again and again as mankind's speculative sentiment never runs out. Therefore, in the near future, since the price has not reached its nearest maximum immediately, a break is needed to recharge. Anything can happen at once, but most likely it will drop below the previously mentioned orange exponential and below the white straight line to collect at least part of the liquidity between $28k-33k and reverse fast back to its nearest target at $120k. I believe this downward and upward movement will occur before the end of 2025. However, from my own experience, I can note that my scenarios are implemented much faster because we are not given time, we create it ourselves. Therefore, just stay in touch and watch the unfold of events vertically if you are not in a hurry. =] I still provide brief comments as the story progresses from that “Watchlist, details and news” section in the upper right corner of the screen on the stationary monitor. Best wishes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by tradephenomena
Combined Staking and Shorting Strategy with Technical AnalysisThis strategy involves buying and staking cryptocurrencies during oversold conditions while shorting during overbought conditions to maximize profits from both price movements and staking rewards. Strategy Breakdown Buy and Stake 1. Identify Oversold Condition:    - Use technical indicators (like RSI or a combination of RSI and CCI) to identify an oversold condition on the 4-hour chart. 2. Wait for Support Reclamation:    - Wait for the cryptocurrency to reclaim a previously broken support level, indicating a potential price reversal. 3. Buy Cryptocurrency:    - Purchase the cryptocurrency at this point. 4. Stake Cryptocurrency:    - Stake the purchased cryptocurrency to earn staking rewards. Short and Profit 1. Price Breakdown:    - If the price breaks down below a new support level, initiate a short position. 2. Target Profits:    - Set profit targets based on the 30-period average price change on the 4-hour chart. Short and Hold 1. Identify Overbought Condition:    - Use technical indicators to identify when the price enters the overbought region. 2. Wait for Support Break:    - Wait for the price to break below a support level (or a previously broken resistance level), signaling a potential downtrend. 3. Go Short:    - Initiate a short position while still holding your staked positions to hedge against potential losses. Pros and Cons Pros 1. Earning Staking Rewards:    - Continues to earn staking rewards even when prices are volatile. 2. Capitalizing on Market Conditions:    - Gains from both upward (via staking) and downward (via shorting) price movements. 3. Risk Management:    - Hedging through short positions can protect against significant losses in a bear market. 4. Enhanced Profits:    - Potential for higher overall returns by combining staking rewards with profits from shorting. Cons 1. Complexity:    - Requires a good understanding of both technical analysis and market timing. 2. Transaction Costs:    - Multiple trades (buying, shorting, covering) can lead to higher transaction fees. 3. Market Risks:    - Volatility can lead to unexpected losses, especially if the market moves against your short positions. 4. Staking Risks:    - Staked assets might be locked for a period, limiting liquidity and flexibility. Using Leverage Leverage can amplify both gains and losses. It allows you to open larger positions than your capital would normally allow, but it comes with increased risk. How to Use Leverage 1. Careful Position Sizing:    - Use leverage sparingly. Consider using 2x to 5x leverage rather than extreme levels. 2. Risk Management:    - Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. 3. Monitor Margin Levels:    - Keep a close eye on margin requirements to avoid liquidation. 4. Balancing Exposure:    - Maintain a balanced portfolio. For instance, if you use leverage to go short, ensure your staked positions are not excessively exposed to market downturns. 5. Leverage in Short Positions:    - Use leverage for short positions to maximize potential profits from price declines. For example, if you have $100 in staked assets, you might use $20 to $50 of your own capital and $20 to $50 of borrowed funds to short an equivalent value.
Education
by The_Bull_Trader
Best Trend Following Strategies for Gold. XAUUSD Day Trading The recent bull run on Gold is a perfect example of a strong trending market. For traders, such sentiment always provides very profitable trading opportunities. In this article, I will share with you 3 best trend-following strategies for day trading Gold that showed extremely high performance this year. So what I did, I back tested 4H/1H time frame since the middle of February when the bull market started. I tested various strategies: price action, SMC, multiple indicators, candlestick patterns ; and I was looking for the ones that showed the highest accuracy and profitability. 1. Moving Averages Crossover The first strategy that showed a very high performance was based on a crossover of 2 moving averages. Exponential MA with 30 length. Simple MA with 9 length. For entry signal, Simple MA should cross Exponential MA from the downside and a candle should close above both MAs'. Stop loss will be below the closest horizontal support. The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss. 13 setups we spotted. 9 of them were profitable. Total winning rate is 69%. 2. Trend-Following Patterns The second strategy that showed a very high performance was based on classic price action patterns. I was looking for bullish patterns like bullish flag, falling wedge, horizontal range, double bottom, head and shoulders, ascending triangle, cup & handle. Bullish confirmation was a breakout and a candle close above a neckline of the pattern. The pattern is considered to be losing if after the breakout of the neckline, the price dropped below its lows. The pattern is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss. From 14th of February to 8th of April, I found 37 bullish patterns. According to the rules that I described above, 31 pattern turned out to be profitable. That gives 83% winning rate. 3. Break of Structure (BoS) The Break of Structure strategy is very old and based on breakouts of current highs. In a bullish trend, after the price violates the levels of a current Higher High HH, a bullish continuation is expected. A long trade is opened after the candle closes above HH or on a retest. With such a strategy, Stop Loss is lying below the last Higher Low HL. The setup is considered to be profitable if, after the entry, the price moved up at least by pips distance from entry to stop loss For the same period, I identified 21 Breaks of Structure. According to the rules, 18 setups were profitable. Total win rate is 85%. Remember that you should not overestimate the performance of these strategies. They work perfectly only in times of a strong bullish market. Such periods are extremely rare. However, once you see a strong bullish season, these strategies will help you to get maximum from it. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
10
ICT Breaker & Mitigation Blocks EXPLAINEDToday, we’re diving into two powerful concepts from ICT’s toolkit that can give you an edge in your trading: Breaker Blocks and Mitigation Blocks. There are one of my favourite PD Arrays to trade, especially the Breaker Block. I’m going to explain how I interpret them and how I incorporate them into my trading. Stay tuned all the way to the end because I’m going to drop some gold nuggets along the way" Ok, so first of all let’s go through what both these PD Arrays look like and what differentiates them, because they are relatively similar and how they are used is practically the same. On the left we have a Breaker Block and on the right a Mitigation Block. They both are reversal profiles on the timeframe you are seeing them on, and they both break market structure as you can see here. The actual zone to take trade from, or even an entry from, in the instance of this bearish example is the nearest down candle or series of down candles after price makes a lower low. When price pulls back to this area, one could plan or take a trade. The defining difference is that a Breaker raids liquidity on its respective timeframes by making a higher high or lower low before reversing, whilst a Mitigation Block does not do that. For this reason, a Breaker is always a higher probability PD Array to trade off from. As you should know by now if you are already learning about PD Arrays such as these is that the market moves from one area to liquidity to another. If you don’t even know what liquidity is, stop this video and educate yourself about that first or you will just be doing yourself a disservice. Alright, so let’s go see some real examples on the chart. Later on I’ll give you a simple mechanical way to trade them, as well as a the discretionary approach which I use. And of course, some tips on how to increase the probability of your setups.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
Price Action Fluency As A Second Language: Part TwoPlease watch my previously posted part one video to grasp the fundamentals. Now, let's dive into part two. Price action fluency involves more than just technical knowledge—it requires a deep understanding of your psychological behavioral responses. Your brain will have it as its prime objective to avoid pain. It will send signals to the eyes to ignore setups that don't perfectly align. Your eyes will only see what they want to see. It is essential to train your eyes to recognize every failed setup. To observe every detail of each area, and identify every possible entry point for both directions. Leave no aspect overlooked. The goal is for your brain to understand every nuance of price action intuitively and objectively. Just like when you read a book in a language you're fluent in, your brain doesn’t pause at every letter to decipher vowels, consonants, word meanings, or sentence structures. Instead, it processes a vast amount of information naturally and seamlessly. It doesn't skip letters or words out of fear; it treats every part of the language equally and objectively. Objectivity is purity. Objectivity is clarity. Objectivity is mastery.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by EsotericTrading
1
Here's How You CONSOLIDATE Your Portfolio Into WinnersGoing through my entire portfolio to judge performance vs Solana, which has been my golden goose this cycle. I bought TSX:FIL in October 2023. If I put that money in Solana instead, I’d be up 345% vs breakeven right now. Obviously I’m selling that position here and flipping it into CRYPTOCAP:SOL How to compare: Jump onto TradingView and on the chart name type: BINANCE:SOLUSDT/BINANCE:FILUSDT You can swap out tickers and exchanges to compare your own portfolio.
Education
by jonnieking
Buy the Rumour, Sell the News: Trading Strategy in ForexBuy the Rumour, Sell the News: Trading Strategy in Forex and Crypto Navigating the volatile terrain of forex and cryptocurrency markets demands a strategic edge, one that ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ can offer. This method, rooted in market psychology, plays on the anticipatory reactions of traders to unconfirmed information about significant events. In this FXOpen article, we explore this strategy, break down how to implement it, and look at an in-depth example. Understanding the Buy the Rumour, Sell the News Trading Strategy The concept of ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ is a well-known approach in forex and cryptocurrency markets, encapsulating how traders act on information before it becomes public. This strategy revolves around the anticipation of events or developments that can significantly impact market prices. Essentially, it involves trading assets based on unconfirmed information or 'rumours' about upcoming events that are expected to have a given positive or negative effect on the asset's value. The logic is to trade while prices are still reacting to speculation, with the aim of potentially closing the position after the news breaks and the market reacts, typically when prices peak momentarily. The essence of this strategy lies in understanding market psychology and how speculation can drive prices. Traders often monitor various channels for hints of developments that could influence asset prices, such as policy changes, economic indicators, or other announcements in the forex and cryptocurrency sectors. Once the anticipated news is officially released and the initial market reaction occurs, it's common for prices to stabilise or even reverse as traders lock in their returns, having capitalised on the price movement generated by the speculation. Steps to Buy the Rumour and Sell the News In forex and crypto markets, the strategy of "buy the rumour, sell the news" doesn't come with a set playbook of entry and exit points. This is because the strategy hinges on market dynamics and sentiment, which are inherently difficult to analyse. However, traders can follow certain steps to better position themselves to take advantage of this phenomenon. Identifying an Important Market Event The first step is pinpointing an upcoming event that could significantly sway market prices. This involves focusing on events that are of paramount importance to the market, not just any minor news release. When it comes to ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’, examples may include: - Interest rate announcements by central banks - Release of major economic indicators (GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rates, inflation data, etc.) - Policy changes or economic forecasts by governments or financial institutions - Geopolitical developments - One-off events (e.g. COVID-19) The relevance of an event can vary; for instance, inflation data might be more crucial in times of high inflation vs. when the economy is grappling with slowed GDP growth. Likewise, it’s important to consider timing; significant events often lead to market movements in the days and weeks before the official announcement as traders assimilate and act on relevant economic data. On the other hand, an event with moderate importance, like PMIs, may see traders only begin to accumulate a position on the day of the event. While these economic events can be important in ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ cryptocurrency strategies, given that many are paired against the US dollar, crypto is typically influenced more by idiosyncratic events. Examples of rumours include: - Bitcoin ETFs - Bitcoin halvings - Network upgrades - Adoption/integration with mainstream finance or platforms - Hacks - ‘Whale’ activity Forming a Directional Bias After identifying an event, the next step involves forming a directional bias. This typically requires analysing: - Related economic data and trends - Consensus expectations - Analyst reports - Market sentiment and positioning indicators, like Myfxbook's sentiment analysis, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, or the Commitment of Traders reports In doing so, traders can align themselves with the prevailing market sentiment. Analysing the Market Trend Determining the prevailing market trend is crucial and is done with respect to the timeframe and context of the expected event. For short-term events, examining trends on 1-hour to daily charts may be best. Real-time price data, from 1-minute to monthly timeframes, can be found in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. The alignment of current price trends with market expectations can signal a good opportunity to position oneself in anticipation of the event. For example, if the consensus leans towards the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates due to high inflation and low unemployment, and this expectation is reflected in a strengthening USD, traders might find an opportune moment to position themselves accordingly. Technical analysis can similarly aid in pinpointing a precise entry point. Managing the Position With a position taken based on the anticipated event, the trader then looks to the market's reaction to carry the trade in the desired direction. As for exiting the position, one approach could be to do so just before the news breaks, pre-empting a potential reversal as the market digests the news. This strategy banks on the assumption that many traders will act similarly, leading to a swift change in market direction. An alternative approach involves trailing a stop loss, which could be activated by the increased volatility surrounding the news announcement. This method holds potential for gains if the news contains unexpected details that further fuel the initial market reaction, such as a more significant rate hike by the Federal Reserve or more hawkish language than previously anticipated. Forex Case Study: Bank of Japan Hikes Interest Rates Japan's economic landscape has historically been characterised by persistent low inflation, which regularly fell below its 2% target since the 1990s. This led to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) adopting a low interest rate, with rates dropping to 0% since late 2010 and -0.1% since 2016, aiming to sustainably push inflation back to 2%. Post-2008, many central banks maintained low interest rates. However, as inflation began to rise after the COVID-19 pandemic, most started a hawkish monetary policy. The United States, for instance, responded to record domestic inflation by raising interest rates to 5.5%. However, Japan was an outlier, maintaining its -0.1% rate. This led to a strong rally in the USD/JPY currency pair. The narrative around an exit from negative interest rates had been growing in 2024. However, the rumour hadn’t yet been credible enough to see the yen strengthen. This began to shift in late February 2024, with some suggesting the BOJ was reconsidering its prolonged negative monetary policy. On February 29th, BOJ board member Hajime Takata hinted at a potential policy shift away from negative interest rates, emphasising the central bank's attention on inflation and wage renegotiations as a determinant for exiting its accommodative stance. This statement initiated a notable decline in the USD/JPY rate. Further fueling expectations, core inflation data released on March 5th showed a 2.5% year-over-year increase. On March 8th, Japanese media outlet Jiji reported that the BOJ was considering scrapping its expansionary yield curve control program. According to Bloomberg, this led to market-implied odds of a BOJ rate hike surging from 26% at February's end to 67%. On March 13th, Nikkei, another reputed Japanese outlet, reported that the BOJ decision would come down to annual wage negotiation outcomes, which were due later in the week on the 15th. Despite the growing anticipation of a rate hike, the market's reaction was nuanced; USD/JPY began to rise prior to Nikkei’s report. After all, the expected shift from -0.1% to 0% interest rates would only slightly alter the significant interest rate differential with the US, maintaining a bullish outlook for USD/JPY. When wage negotiations concluded with a 5.28% increase on March 15th, a rate hike on March 19th became almost certain. USD/JPY had climbed from a low of 146.478 on March 8th to open the week on March 17th at 149.011. The meeting on March 19th saw the BOJ raise rates to 0%, as widely expected. Anyone still having long positions in JPY closed their position, and USD/JPY climbed significantly higher, reaching 151.816 just a day later. Buy the Rumour, Sell the News Meaning in This Scenario This case exemplifies the ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ strategy's complexity. Initially, the yen strengthened on speculation and uncertainty surrounding the BOJ's policy shift. However, as the market began to realise a rate hike was a significant possibility, two pivotal developments occurred. - First, the certainty of a policy change grew. While there were a few unknown events, like the wage negotiations, the market massively increased its expectation for a hike in the week prior to the meeting, as evidenced by Bloomberg’s reporting. In hindsight, the anticipation of the end of yield curve control may have been the ‘news’ event that all but confirmed the hike for the market, leading to the rise in interest rates being priced in completely. - Second, traders recognised that the actual impact of the hike would be minimal on the fundamental USD/JPY relationship, given the still substantial interest rate differential of 5.5% vs the previous 5.6%. This scenario underscores the importance of considering the broader context and market expectations surrounding news events. While economic data releases tend to be more uncertain and may not be fully priced in, some events may offer strong clues well before the actual announcement. If the outcome of an event becomes all but a certainty thanks to these clues, the rumour may no longer be valid, leading to it being priced in as news. At this point, a trader could take an opposite ‘buy the news, sell the rumours’ approach, potentially capitalising on the market's expectation that this shift in fundamentals has already been baked into the price. The Bottom Line In a realm where information is king, mastering the "buy the rumour, sell the news" strategy could offer traders a competitive advantage in forex and cryptocurrency markets. This approach not only demands an acute sense of market sentiment and trends but also a disciplined approach to risk management. For those looking to navigate these waters with an experienced partner, opening an FXOpen account could be your gateway to informed and strategic trading in the dynamic world of forex and crypto CFDs. FAQs What Does It Mean to Buy the Rumour, Sell the News? ‘Buy the rumour, sell the news’ is a trading strategy in which traders buy or sell before an anticipated event and close trades once the event occurs or the news is released. Traders capitalise on price movements driven by rumours or speculation prior to the official announcement, then close position to lock in potential returns as the market reacts to the news, which may already be reflected in the price. How to Buy the Rumour and Sell the News? Traders can implement this strategy by staying informed about upcoming events that could impact market prices, such as economic announcements. Monitoring market sentiment and trends helps in forming a directional bias. Traders position themselves based on speculative anticipation, planning to exit their positions when the news breaks and the market adjusts. Should I Trade Based on the News? Trading on the news can be a viable strategy, especially for those adept at interpreting market sentiment and reactions to news events. However, it requires an understanding of how news impacts different markets and the ability to act swiftly on information. Risk management and a clear strategy are crucial, as markets can be highly volatile following news releases. At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
2
You are (probably) using MAs wrongWhen it comes to moving averages, people tend to forget what they are. A moving average is just as the name suggests - an average of the chosen number of candles that moves (once a new candle prints). I know it seems obvious to most, but why then, when it comes to lengths we seem to be so confused about it? When choosing the length of a MA - what do you look for? "Magical" Fibonacci Numbers? Most common length 200, because you were told that's what everyone uses? But let's thing about it for a second. What is an EMA200, for example? It's an exponentially weighted average of the past 200 candles. So why would it be so "important"? MA200, if you're on a 15-minute timeframe represents two hundred 15-minute candles, or, in different words - an average price of the past 50 hours. MA200 on a 5-minute timeframe represents two-hundred 5-minute candles, which equals to about 16 and a half hours. Is there anything special about the average price of the past 16.5 hours? Of course not. The way moving averages should be looked at, in my humble opinion is by using them to look at an average price of the past periods that actually matter. Periods like Daily, Weekly, Monthly. If you're a scalper who trades 1-minute charts, perhaps you want to know what the average price of the past 15 minutes, 1 hour and 4 hours is. To do that you would divide 15 by 1, giving you MA length of 15 representing the average price of the past 15 minutes. If you're a day trader, like me, who loves trading 5 and 15-minute timeframes, I want to know the average prices of the past hour, 4 hours and Daily. Weekly and Monthly averages also give me potential targets, or potential areas of interest. Hence the length of forementioned moving averages would be 12, 48, and 288 (on a 5-minute chart) and 4, 12, and 96 (on a 15-minute chart). I recently created an Indicator that automatically calculates these lengths based on your chosen higher timeframes of interest and your current timeframe, so you don't need to calculate these lengths yourself. However, you can very easily do the same by making a simple calculation. How many of my current timeframe candles are in a higher timeframe that I want to know. You can use the same method in calculating length of other things, like a RSI, for instance. Perhaps you wondered, like I did, why the period 14 is used to calculate the RSI. Fortunately we can adjust these periods and perhaps find an edge in the market. Hope this short post clarifies some things. I will be publishing the Timeframe Based Moving Averages script soon. Cheers
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDEducation
by hundredtoamillion
Trade the TREND with 4 Trend Indicators4 Trend Indicators you can use to identify the current MACRO Trend. It's always important to know where your market is currently trading. Is it bullish, bearish, or range trading? If you have established the trend, you can trade with the trend instead of against it. Trading against the trend ( for example shorting during a bullish cycle ) adds unnecessary risk to an already risky trade (leverage). 1) Bollinger Bands 2) Logarithmic View 3) Super Trend 4) Moving Averages + RSI Let me know how YOU determine the macro trend! _________________________ BINANCE:DOGEUSDT MEXC:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD
Editors' picks
Education
by CryptoCheck-
4
Identifying and forecasting trends using MMOHThis MMOH ticker tracks how many stocks are over their 100D Moving Average. You can think of it like an RSI, where >75 is overbought, <25 is oversold and ~40 is neutral. I've found I can forecast trends, and spot pivots; using bull/bear divergence lines, and paying attention to the critical levels. Around 40 usually gets some swift bear/bull action, and we are approaching it. Pass or fail, it's gonna start making big moves. I could see another 10-20% blow-off top, but we're def due for some bear sooner rather than later, imo. I also like to compare this to the MMTW, MMFI, & MMTH which are 20D, 50D, & 200D. They have the same tickers specifically for SPY and NDX that start S5 or ND. They are NDTW NDFI NDOH NDTH S5TW S5FI S5OH S5TH
MEducation
by Nicklaus68
10-Year T-Note vs. 10-Year Yield Futures: Which One To Trade?Introduction: The 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are two prominent instruments in the financial markets, offering traders unique opportunities to capitalize on interest rate movements. This video compares these two products, focusing on their key characteristics, liquidity, and the differences in point and tick values, ultimately helping you decide which one to trade. Key Characteristics: 10-Year T-Note Futures represent a contract based on the value of U.S. Treasury notes with a 10-year maturity, while 10-Year Yield Futures are based on the yield of these notes. The T-Note Futures contract size is $100,000, while the 10-Year Yield Futures contract size is based on $1,000 per index point, reflecting a $10 DV01 (dollar value of a one basis point move). Liquidity Comparison: Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are highly liquid, with substantial daily trading volumes and open interest. This high liquidity ensures tight spreads and efficient trade execution, providing traders with confidence in entering and exiting positions in both markets. Point and Tick Values: Understanding the point and tick values is crucial for effective trading. For 10-Year T-Note Futures, each tick is 1/32nd of a point, worth $31.25 per contract. The 10-Year Yield Futures have a tick value of 0.001 percent, worth $1.00 per contract. These values influence trading costs and profit potential differently and are essential for precise strategy formulation. Margin Information: The initial margin requirement for 10-Year T-Note Futures typically ranges around $1,500 per contract, while the maintenance margin is slightly lower. For 10-Year Yield Futures, the initial margin is approximately $500 per contract, reflecting its lower notional value and DV01. Maintenance margins for yield futures are also marginally lower, providing traders with flexible capital management options. Trade Execution: We demonstrate planning and placing a bracket order for both products. Using TradingView charts, we set up entry and exit points, showcasing how the different tick values and liquidity levels impact trade execution and potential outcomes. Risk Management: Effective risk management is vital when trading futures. Utilizing stop-loss orders and hedging techniques can mitigate potential losses. Avoiding undefined risk exposure and ensuring precise entries and exits help maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio, which is essential for long-term trading success. Conclusion: Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures offer unique advantages. The choice depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market outlook. Watch the full video for a detailed analysis and insights on leveraging these products in your trading endeavors. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Editors' picks
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
4
EGO NO GO Traders’ Downfall: Six Actions to AvoidThere is NO place for ego and bravado with trading. If it falls under your personality, you have been warned. Do you know why? Because ego and emotion are traders’ kryptonite. In this piece, we’ll dive into the egotistical trader’s playbook and shine a light on six actions that could be crippling your trading game. EGO NO GO #1: Overtrade: More is Not Always More Overtrading is like trying to sprint a marathon; it’s unsustainable and a fast track to burnout. You need to pace yourself or you’re going to get a spasm or a stitch. As a trader, you’re not a machine-gun trader, firing rounds at every shadow. You need to only look and wait for the highest probability trades. Remember, it’s about the right trades, not just more trades. Solution: Quality Over Quantity as I always tell my MATI Traders! EGO NO GO #2: Revenge Trade: The Emotional Spiral After a loss, I know it feels tempting to jump straight back into the markets in order to recover your funds. But let’s face it… Revenge trading is about as effective as using a leaky bucket to bail water out of a sinking ship. Solution: Keep Cool and Carry On Clear your head. Take a walk, grab a beer – The market will always be there for you the next day. And it will probably dish out even better trades. Remember, the market doesn’t know you, and it certainly doesn’t owe you. Stick to your plan, not your pride. EGO NO GO #3: Ignore Risk Management: The Silent Killer If you ignore risk management, it’s like skydiving without checking your parachute. What if you jumped and instead of a parachute you’re wearing a backback? Don’t laugh, these things happen. With trading you need your risk management measures: Stop loss of less than 2% Drawdown management when the portfolio goes down. Risking money you can emotionally handle to lose. Making sure of your trade size. Checking your risk to rewards. Ensuring you’ve protected your positions. Solution: Plan Your Risk Decide on your risk parameters before you enter a trade, and then—this is key—stick to them. Your future self will thank you. EGO NO GO #4: Dismiss Market Analysis: Gut Feelings vs. Hard Data You also need to check the weather. By weather I mean, look at the news events coming out for the day and week. Is it NFP (Non Farm Payrolls)? – The day when you DON’T day trade. Is it CPI (Consumer Price Index)? – The day you DON’T Trade Is it FOMC where the federal committee talks and causes volatility? Solution: Check the news events and be vigilant. EGO NO GO #5: Blame Everything: The Pointless Game When trades go south. They look to blame. They point fingers to their mentors, their strategy, themselves. There is NO blame game with the markets. If you followed your rules, strategies, risk to reward and everything else – You did the best of your ability for that trade. Solution: Own your trade to Hone your trade It Accept responsibility, learn from your mistakes, and grow stronger. It’s the only way. EGO NO GO #6: Fail to Adapt: Evolve or Be Left Behind The market is a beast that’s always changing. I always say adapt or die. Feel the general market’s environment. Know whether it’s in a favourable or unfavourable period. Tweak your system to improve your metrics. Change the markets by adding or removing ones that aren’t working. Take ego out of the analysis. Solution: Stay Sharp, Stay Updated FINAL WORDS: I’m sure you already feel less egotistical when it comes to trading. And that means, this article has done it’s job. Whenever you feel ego creeping in, remember this article save it and store it. In fact go through all the articles that resonate, print them and store them in a file. It will be your guide to trading well! Let’s sum up the ego tendencies and how to avoid them… Avoid Overtrading: Less can be more. No Revenge Trading: Act with strategy, not emotion. Stick to Risk Management: It’s your safety net. Conduct Market Analysis: Never trade uninformed. Stop the Blame: Learn and move forward. Adapt to the Market: Evolve your strategy to stay relevant.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso