Potential Consequences of a TON Crash on April 12, 2024Potential Consequences of a TON Crash on April 12, 2024
Accurately predicting the impact of a TON crash on April 12, 2024, is extremely difficult as it depends on various factors, including:
Cause of the crash: Was it due to a technical error, cyberattack, or other factors?
Severity of the crash: How significantly did it affect the TON network and applications built on it?
Community response: How would the TON community react to the crash? Would they retain trust in the project and continue using TON?
Nevertheless, we can hypothesize some potential consequences of a TON crash:
Negative Impacts:
Decreased TON token value: The value of the TON token could plummet due to lost investor confidence.
Reduced usage: The number of users and developers using TON could dwindle.
Project's damaged reputation: The TON project could lose credibility within the blockchain community.
Financial losses: Users could lose money due to the crash.
Positive Impacts:
Buying opportunity: The crash could create a buying opportunity for those who believe in the project's potential to acquire TON at a lower price.
System improvement: Developers could leverage the crash to enhance the TON system and address potential flaws.
Strengthened community bonding: The TON community could unite more firmly to support the project through challenging times.
Overall, a TON crash on April 12, 2024, could have both negative and positive repercussions. The actual impact would hinge on various factors.
Disclaimer:
This information is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.
Due to the complex nature of the cryptocurrency market, predicting the price of any coin is highly challenging and involves significant risks.
For the most accurate and up-to-date information on TON's situation, consult reliable news sources and analyses in the blockchain domain.
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Trend Analysis
My Entries With Reasons To Help You Make 1000 Pips Per Week !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price.
However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy.
For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices.
Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices.
In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Market Recap: This was a recap for 4/11/2024I completely forgot to record my market recap. My trading journal entries got deleted to the computer restarted. I lost all of my trade entries because I did not save them. Then I proceeded to lose two more trades today. Which is very frustrating.
Anyway, in this video I cover the trades that I took and the one possible setup outside of all of the news.
As a trader, how can you train your mental endurance?
Trading psychology is actually a very complex subject. It should be said that subjects related to human nature have a certain degree of complexity and dialectics.
Trading is actually a chain of links. If you do not realize the profound impact of human nature on trading and its results, then there is a high probability that you will be out with a loss in future transactions.
Loss is actually not terrible. What is terrible is that there is still no objective, fair and comprehensive analysis during the review afterwards.
For novices who are new to the market, which one is more important, technology or mentality?
This is a topic that may never be avoided. The important thing is not the technology, but the belief in trading. Of course, being a supporter of technology does not deny the role of technology in the market, but we must look at trading objectively.
The vast majority of traders come here to make quick money. They are like empty-handed wolves. Think about it, they are already empty-handed. What skills and mentality are needed? ...This will cause people to deviate from the way to make money and choose to take "shortcuts." As for whether they can make money, that is a matter for the future.
Details determine success or failure, and attitude determines destiny.
The same is true in trading. A trader's mentality is often determined by his or her own values, and each person's life values are developed from childhood and acquired through experience. Therefore, the trading methods of some of our traders are more like a condensed portrayal of their own lives, or everyone's trading system has some of their own life trajectories.
Objectively speaking, if trading is indeed a craft, the quality of the craft can directly determine whether the "handicraft" produced is defective.
There is a difference between "reckless doing" and "doing it methodically". There are methods and reasons to be found in any field, and I believe there are no exceptions to this.
Remember not to be too impatient in the early stages of trading. Don’t forget that you are just a newcomer. As a trader who wants to survive in the market for a long time, you still need to give yourself a certain amount of flexibility and time. After all, it proves that long-term profits are not a short-term thing.
Here are a few common mental issues that can help you:
Under the condition that your own trading methods are relatively mature,
(1) Place orders not in accordance with trading rules or indiscriminately.
(2) I want to place an order every time I open the trading software.
(3) I always feel that if I don’t trade at all times, I will miss the big market trend.
(4) After a slight floating profit, you will be afraid of a slight correction in the market and want to close your position immediately.
(5) Facing missed opportunities, I feel angry and unwilling, always wanting to pursue them.
(6) You hit the stop loss that was buried or set in advance but you don’t believe it, thinking that you can come back if you resist.
(7) Always eager to make back previous losses.
(8) It is easy to be influenced by traders or friends around you, and what others say will be whatever you say.
(9) When trading loses money, keep blaming the market and never looking for reasons in yourself.
The biggest misunderstanding in trading is "what if".
Many immature traders always fall into the trap of self-delusion. When they trade, they often imagine that if I intervene in the correct market early, I may make 50% or more more profits.
Although it is difficult to develop a good trading mentality, it will be beneficial to our future transactions, and it will also be beneficial to manage our funds later when we increase the amount of funds; although bad trading behavior will make you very happy in the moment, But it is accompanied by long-term pain and repeated suffering, and the final result can only be a loss.
You see, there are actually many questions and logic behind a simple decision and operation. Since we can form our own trading system through many years of trading experience, it proves that our trading logic is compact and reasonable. If it is unreasonable, It is necessary to adjust the trading method in a timely manner and not to place orders blindly.
What you need most is deep thinking about trading.
Thinking is a valuable behavior for traders, and it is also the freest way to improve one's level.
We actually make orders with our eyes closed most of the time, and the improvement of transactions without repeated consideration and summary is close to zero, or even negative growth. Only by continuous learning and summary, the longer your trading level improves, the faster it will be.
Only by learning to think deeply can you know which stage of trading you are currently in, and then you can reasonably analyze how funds should be used and how to utilize the existing trading strategies in hand.
In fact, the problem of mentality will definitely accompany the entire transaction process, but as traders, we cannot abandon human nature, and there is no need to abandon human nature. Well, you can't avoid the psychological ups and downs, so don't have any delusions.
If you think that your trading will be completely free from interference and influence of mentality, this is impossible and not objective.
What we ultimately have to learn is to live in harmony with this mentality. When emotions rise and fall, you just need to know that the emotion is coming and don't let it control your thinking and behavior. This is the key to profitability in trading.
How to Use the Best Klinger OscillatorHow to Use the Best Klinger Oscillator
In the ever-evolving world of trading, finding the right tools and indicators to stay ahead of the game is crucial. One such tool that has withstood the test of time and continues to be popular among traders in 2023 is the Klinger oscillator. In this article, we will discuss what the Klinger oscillator is, how it works, and how to use it effectively.
What Is the Klinger Volume Oscillator?
The Klinger oscillator, also known as the Klinger volume oscillator, is a technical analysis tool used to measure the difference between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of volume. It was created by Stephen Klinger in the 1980s to address the shortcomings of other tools that failed to capture changes in volume trends. The indicator can be used to identify bullish and bearish momentum, as well as potential trend reversals.
It’s plotted as two lines on a chart, one called the “Klinger” and the other known as the “signal”. The Klinger line oscillates according to volume force – a measure of price and volume – while the signal line is typically a 13-period moving average of the Klinger.
Klinger Volume Oscillator Formula
The Klinger oscillator is calculated by working out an asset’s volume force, and then subtracting a short EMA of volume force from a long EMA. Finally, the signal line is created by determining an EMA of the Klinger. The formula for the indicator is as follows:
Step 1: Compute the Volume Force (VF)
The first step is determining the Volume Force (VF). To do this, you'll need to calculate the following components:
1.1 Trend:
Calculate the difference between the current period's high and low prices (H-L).
1.2 Price Range (PR):
Find the range of prices by calculating the maximum of these three values:
The absolute value of the current high minus the previous close (H-Cn-1)
The absolute value of the current low minus the previous close (L-Cn-1)
The current high minus the current low (H-L)
1.3 Volume Multiplier (VM):
Determine the Volume Multiplier by using this formula:
VM = - 1
1.4 Calculate the Volume Force (VF):
Finally, compute the Volume Force using the following formula:
VF = VM x Volume
Step 2: Calculate EMAs of VF
Once you have the VF, you need to compute two EMAs of the Volume Force:
A short-term EMA, typically 34 periods
A long-term EMA, usually 55 periods
Step 3: Determine the Klinger Oscillator
Subtract the long-term EMA of VF from the short-term EMA of VF to obtain the indicator value:
Klinger oscillator = short-term EMA of VF - long-term EMA of VF
Step 4: Calculate the Signal Line
To create the signal line, compute the 13-period moving average of the oscillator.
The result is two lines: the faster Klinger oscillator and the slower signal. While this formula may seem complicated, the advent of trading software means you don’t need to try and calculate the Klinger oscillator in Excel. In FXOpen’s native TickTrader platform, you’ll find the Klinger indicator and dozens of other tools waiting for you.
How to Trade the Klinger Oscillator
The Klinger is a versatile tool that can be used in a variety of trading strategies. Here are two common ways to use the indicator while trading:
Trading Divergences
One way to use it is to look for divergences between the indicator and the price. A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes a new low, but the Klinger makes a higher low. This indicates that there is strong buying pressure despite the price being lower.
Conversely, a bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a new high, but the indicator makes a lower high. This indicates substantial selling pressure even with a higher price. Traders could use these divergences to enter trades in the corresponding direction.
You can learn more about regular and hidden bullish and bearish divergence here.
Trading Crossovers
The signal line is usually a 13-period moving average of the Klinger and serves to smooth out the Klinger and provide buy and sell opportunities. When the oscillator crosses above the signal line, it is a bullish sign, indicating that the momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish. Traders can use this sign to enter a long position.
Similarly, when the Klinger crosses below the signal, it demonstrates that the momentum is moving from bullish to bearish. This provides an opportunity for traders to go short.
How to Confirm Signals
It's important to note that traders do not rely solely on the Klinger indicator. It's always a good idea to confirm the signals with other technical and fundamental analysis tools.
For example, if the oscillator crosses above the signal line and the price of the security is also above its 200-day moving average (blue), this could be a sign to buy. On the other hand, a potential sell signal emerges if it falls below the slower line and the security's price is also below its 200-day moving average.
One feature of the indicator not yet mentioned is the Klinger oscillator 0 line. The 0 level, while less important than divergences or crossovers, may be used to confirm the direction of the trend. While a move above or below 0 doesn’t necessarily precede a bullish or bearish trend, respectively, a bullish or bearish trend can be confirmed when the Klinger closes beyond 0.
For instance, you could look for a bearish crossover (Klinger crosses below 0), then confirm the entry when the Klinger falls below 0, and vice versa. Doing so could help to reduce the number of false signals it generates.
Limitations of the Klinger Oscillator
While the Klinger is a handy tool for spotting trends and incoming trend reversals, it has its limitations. Here are some drawbacks of the indicator:
It does give false signals, especially during periods of low or erratic volume.
In trending markets, it may be unreliable and generate numerous false signals.
The indicator can be affected by sudden spikes or drops in volume, which might distort the oscillator and the signal line.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion, the Klinger oscillator is an effective technical analysis tool that helps traders identify trends, momentum, and potential reversals in the market. By analysing volume and price data, it provides valuable insights into market dynamics and offers multiple signals, like divergences and crossovers.
Now that you have an overview of how to read the Klinger oscillator and how to trade its different setups, it’s time to put your knowledge into practice. You can open an FXOpen account to gain access to over 600 markets alongside low trading fees and lightning-fast execution speeds in the advanced TickTrader platform. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
CHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback ExamplesCHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback Examples
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Daily ----> 4H
4H ----> 1H
1H ----> 15 min
30m ----> 5m
Market Structure Simplified
"Ultimate Market Structure Course - Smart Money Concepts" by Smart Money Concepts
1. First Step: Find Valid Pullbacks
- Signal Trends
- Valid Breaks
- Reversals
Pullbacks are defined by when a low of a candle is below previous candle low
2. Identify deepest point of pullback
- That will be the unconfirmed low/high
3. Look for BOS or CHoCH to confirm valid lower/higher high or low
Don't Get Duped by the RSIWhy This Popular Indicator Can Lead You Astray
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
While the RSI seems straightforward, there's a crucial catch: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when markets are volatile or trending strongly.
Here's how the RSI's lagging nature can be deceptive:
Overbought Traps: The RSI might reach overbought territory (above 70) during a strong uptrend. However, instead of signaling an imminent reversal, the price could keep climbing, potentially reaching new highs. This can lure traders into believing a correction is coming (based on the high RSI) only to miss out on further gains.
Oversold Deceptions: Conversely, the RSI might dip into oversold territory (below 30) during a downtrend. This could be interpreted as a buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce back. But, in a strong downtrend, the price may continue to fall, and the RSI might stay oversold for extended periods.
How to Use the RSI More Effectively:
Despite its limitations, the RSI can still be a valuable tool when used strategically:
Confirmation Tool: Combine the RSI with other technical indicators or chart patterns for confirmation. For example, an RSI divergence (where the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price) might strengthen a potential reversal signal.
Identify Trending Markets: The RSI can help identify the strength of a trend. During strong uptrends, the RSI may frequently reach overbought levels without signaling an immediate reversal. Conversely, in downtrends, the RSI may stay oversold for extended periods.
Identify Overbought/Oversold Conditions: While not a precise timing tool, the RSI can indicate when an asset might be nearing extreme price levels, potentially due for a correction. However, be cautious about chasing these signals blindly.
Beyond the RSI:
Remember, the RSI is just one piece of the puzzle. Always consider other factors like market sentiment, news events, and overall price trends when making trading decisions.
Here are some additional tips:
Don't rely solely on technical indicators. Develop a comprehensive trading strategy that considers both technical and fundamental analysis.
Backtest your strategies. Test your trading ideas using historical data to see how they would have performed in different market conditions.
Start small and manage your risk. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, especially when using potentially deceptive indicators.
By understanding the limitations of the RSI and using it strategically, you can improve your technical analysis skills and make more informed trading decisions.
Its ok to take a LOSSThis video breaks down how its ok to take a loss even when our plan does work out in the long run. We have to be able to maintain these good risk management habits even if we are eventually right. Because in the event we aren't right on the end we have a much heavier loss that's harder to recover from.
3 Reasons Below On Why You Should Not "Bag Hold"Ico Investors are increasing this year
Traders in crypto are in for a rude wake-up because there is so
many opportunities in this market
Watch out for Buying at the wrong time.
Remember that too much Greed to keep profit for more than a day will
destroy your profits
if you buy at the wrong time you will lose all your money this is called bag holding
Look for a way to learn more below
Buy at the right time
Dont follow the hype
Jump on the rocket then parachute at the top while taking profits
Rocket boost this content to learn more
**Disclaimer:**
The information provided above or below is for educational and informational purposes only.
--
It does not constitute financial advice, and trading always involves
--
a risk of substantial losses, regardless of the margin levels
--
used. Before engaging in any trading activities, it is crucial to
--
conduct thorough research, consider your financial situation,
--
and, if necessary, consult with a qualified financial advisor. Past
--
performance is not indicative of future results, and market
--
conditions can change rapidly. Trading decisions should be made
--
based on careful analysis and consideration of individual
--
circumstances. The user is solely responsible for any decisions made
--
and should be aware of the inherent risks associated with trading in
--
financial markets.
Strategy: The Butterfly Reversal. Harmonics are a very useful tool for gaining insight into possible reversal levels after strong trends.
"M" shapes are often found at the bottom of trends and "W" shapes at the top. Most often these fit into the rules of the butterfly reversal.
A defining characteristic of the butterfly is the final leg (D leg) is always a very strong leg.
It's a strong and scary false breakout. Comes out of a range and always tends to look like trend continuation.
In the times the butterfly reversal will work, the strong move is terminal.
It'll run just far enough to take out the stops and bring in breakout traders and then have a spectacular reversal.
Another trait of harmonics is the reversal is at least as strong as the move heading into it, often stronger.
Since they have as a defining feature very strong swings at different points, when we have large chart harmonics these are often also accompanied by news that drives the fast moves.
In the times they work, harmonics are one of the most accurate forms of forward looking signals for a reversal.
However, it should be noted that trading harmonics as a sole strategy against a trend is not expected to have a winning outcome.
Typically you'd expected to hit about 1/3 winners on 1:3 RR and come out around even. That's if you do it really well. Otherwise, it's a losing game.
Lots of "M" shapes form in a downtrend and lots of "W" shapes form in an uptrend.
The formation of these does not always mean reversal, but when there are reversals; you often see these structures signalling them.
Harmonic butterflies are a classic false breakout / stop hunt pattern and very useful to know about.
Don't Trade These Trend Lines | Forex Trading Basics
A lot of traders apply trend lines for trading and making predictions on different financial markets.
Trend line can also be an important element of price action patterns.
However, only few knows that some trend lines are better to be avoided.
In this article, I will share with you the types of trend lines that you should avoid and not rely on for making trading decisions.
Invalidated Trend Line
Even the strongest trend lines may lose their significance with time.
Before you take a trade from a trend line, make sure that it still remains valid.
If the trend line is not respected by the buyers and then by the sellers,
or by the sellers and then by the buyers, we say that such a trend line lost its significance, and it is better to not trade it.
Have a look at that rising trend line on USDCAD.
We see strong bullish reactions to that, and we may expect a bullish movement from that, once it is tested.
However, it was violated and after a breakout it should turn into a vertical resistance.
Retesting that, the price easily went through the broken trend line.
The trend line lost its significance, and it is better to not trade that in future.
2 Touches Based Trend Line
When you are looking for a strong trend line to trade, remember that the trend line should be confirmed by at least 3 touches and 3 consequent bullish / bearish reactions to that.
Above is the example of a valid and reliable trend line.
However, quite often, newbie trade 2 touches based trend lines.
Most of the time, such trend lines are neglected by the market.
Moreover, relying on 2-touches-based trend lines, your chart will look like a complete mess.
Simply because there are too many trend line meeting that criteria.
Receding trend line
There are the trend lines that go against your trade with time while remaining valid.
Have a look at a major falling trend line on NZDCHF on a daily time frame.
You may open a swing long position from that on a daily or a day trade on intraday time frames like an hourly.
You can see that the market may easily go against your predictions for a long time, while perfectly respecting a trend line.
The price was sliding on that trend line for 6 consequent days before it finally started to grow.
Such trend lines are better to be avoided .
Make sure that a trend line and your trade have the same direction.
Trend lines can provide very safe points for trading entries. However, the trend lines are not equal and while some of them can be very profitable, some of them can lead to substantial losses.
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Swing Mapping Part 3: Trade Management StrategiesWelcome to Swing Mapping Part 3, where we delve into three different approaches to trade management using swing mapping methods.
Trade management always represents a trade-off between taking profits early and letting winning trades run. There is no perfect solution, but by understanding different approaches, traders can tailor their strategies to their risk tolerance and market conditions.
1. Aggressive Approach: Exit on Failure at Swing High (Low)
The aggressive approach involves exiting a trade when the market fails to hold above a swing high (swing low if short).
Method: Once you’ve entered the trade (long), continue to map the swings highs as defined in Swing Mapping Part 1. Should the market fail to break and hold above the swing high, a trader using this strategy may close their trade.
This strategy aims for quick profits without giving back gains, capitalising on short-term market movements. Traders employing this strategy often prioritise locking in profits swiftly, especially in volatile or uncertain market conditions. However, by exiting at the first sign of resistance, traders may miss out on potential larger gains if the market continues to move in their favour.
Positives and Negatives:
Positive: Quick profits may allow for rapid capitalisation on short-term price movements.
Positive: Avoids giving back gains by exiting at the earliest indication of a potential reversal.
Negative: Potential for leaving profits on the table if the market continues to trend favourably after the exit signal.
Example: EUR/USD 1hr: Exit on Failure at Swing High
This example on the hourly candle chart illustrates the active approach of taking small profits following failures at a swing high. The first entry takes a retest of support and exits as the market fails to break above prior swing resistance. The second entry then takes a breakout above the swing highs and the aggressive exit approach works well as the market fakes out at swing highs.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Passive Approach: Exit on a Break Below Swing Low
Contrary to its name, the passive approach still requires active monitoring of the market. This strategy involves exiting a trade when the market breaks below a swing low, indicating a potential reversal or loss of momentum.
Method: Once you’ve entered the trade (long), continue to map the swing lows as defined in Swing Mapping Part 1. Should the market break and close below a swing low, a trader using this strategy may close their trade.
While this approach provides a more conservative exit compared to the aggressive approach, it may result in giving back some profits gained during the trade. Traders employing this strategy often prioritise running winning trades over taking quick profits – pairing well with trend following entry techniques.
Positives and Negatives:
Positive: Gives winning trades more time to run and allows for pullbacks.
Positive: Provides a conservative exit strategy, minimising the risk of significant drawdowns.
Negative: By definition this strategy will result in giving back profits as the market retraces.
Example: S&P 500 5min: Exit on a Break Below Swing Low
This example is an intra-day trend continuation trade on the S&P 500 5min candle chart. The entry setup was a simple breakout above a cluster of swing highs in-line with the prevailing trend. We can see that whilst we had several stalls at swing highs, taking a more passive approach and using mapped swing lows worked well when managing this trade. The trade was closed when the market broke and closed below a mapped swing low.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Predictive Approach: Place a Limit Order at Key Swing Resistance (Support)
We mentioned in Swing Mapping Part 1 that not all swings are equal. The more bars either side of the swing high or low, the larger the peak or trough in the market – the more significant the turning point. These more significant swings can be used as profit targets.
Method: Prior to entering your trade, identify a key swing on your chart – one that has not been broken for a large number of bars. A trader using this strategy would place a limit order to take profits at the highest close prior to the key swing.
This strategy allows traders to set a predefined target for profit-taking, reducing the need for continuous monitoring of the market. By setting a fixed order, traders can automate their exit strategy and focus on other aspects of their trading plan.
However, the challenge lies in accurately predicting price targets, as objectives may not always align with market movements. With this in mind, this approach can work in tandem with either the aggressive or passive swing exit methods outlined above.
Positives and Negatives:
Positive: Fixed order placement enables traders to "set and forget" their exit strategy, reducing emotional decision-making.
Positive: Allows you to define your risk/reward prior to entering a trade.
Negative: Objectives may not always align with market movements, leading to missed opportunities or premature exits if the target is not reached.
Example: Tesla Daily: Place a Limit Order at Key Swing Support
Here’s an example of the key swing limit order approach to managing trades. Each entry is a short fakeout entry setup that we discuss in depth in Swing Mapping Part 2. We identify the nearest key swing level that we believe the trade could reach. A limit order is then placed at the lowest close nearest the key swing level.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
Swing mapping can help you gain a deep understanding of price action and reduces reliance on lagging indicators. It allows you to quickly analyse the strengths of different markets, pinpoint precise entry levels and manage trades in a dynamic way that quickly adapts to changing market conditions.
Now you’ve reached the end of this mini-series on swing mapping, we hope you will feel confident enough to put some of the techniques into practice. Happy swing mapping!
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Strategy: The 1.61 Head Fake Strategy. The 1.61 head fake strategy is intended to give early signals of where a high/low might be and be an early tell on the potential turn of the trend.
This strategy can be used for both pullbacks and reversals.
When traded as a correction, this strategy usually is successful in the forecasting and trading of the end of Elliot wave 5 heading into the ABC.
Absolute highs and lows can also be made with this 1.61 head fake.
Breaking of the 2.20 fib triggers failure of this strategy.
Strategy: 76 Correction Trend Continuation. The 76 correction strategy aims to pick up optimal continuation trades into large retracements.
It's a trend following strategy that aims to enter into strong counter trend moves to a 76% retracement of the previous trend leg.
This strategy usually performs best when combined with Elliot wave. Waiting for there to be a full impulsive leg in 5 waves followed by a big ABC correction.
The strategy aims to pick up trades into the "C" point in such a correction.
With a default minimum risk:reward of 1:3 the strategy is expected to breakeven on win rates of 35% or higher.
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements for CryptoHow to Use Fibonacci Retracements for Crypto
Fibonacci retracements have long been used in traditional financial markets. However, with the advent of crypto trading, they’ve also found popularity amongst digital asset traders. In this article, we answer the question “What is Fibonacci in crypto?”, discuss how to trade retracements and offer some strategies you can get started with today.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracements are based on the Fibonacci sequence mathematical concept. This sequence was discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci, a 13th-century Italian mathematician, and consists of a series of digits where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. The sequence is 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, and so on.
The most interesting aspect of this sequence is the so-called Golden Ratio of 1.618. This ratio can be found throughout artificial and natural structures, including the Taj Mahal, tornadoes, and spiral galaxies. This ratio, and complementary ratios, also seem to significantly influence the financial markets.
Fibonacci retracement levels are percentages derived from the Golden Ratio. The most widely used retracement levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. These levels represent potential support and resistance areas where the price of an asset, like a cryptocurrency, might bounce back or reverse during a trend. Additional retracement levels, like 23.6% and 78.6%, are also sometimes used, although they are considered less significant.
As traders, we can use the Fibonacci sequence in crypto trading to identify potential areas where a price may reverse or stall, allowing us to make informed decisions about when to enter and exit a position. The retracement levels can be applied to any timeframe, making them versatile tools for different trading styles, including day trading, swing trading, and position trading.
What Does Fib Mean in Crypto?
“Fib” is an abbreviated term describing Fibonacci retracements. While there are other types of Fibonacci tools, such as extensions, fans, and spirals, Fibs will almost always refer to retracements.
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements for Crypto Trading
Using Fibonacci levels in crypto has become increasingly popular in recent years, especially for the world’s largest and most popular digital asset, Bitcoin. The highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies makes it crucial for traders to identify potential areas of support and resistance where prices may reverse.
To find and use your own Bitcoin Fibonacci levels, follow these steps:
Plot the Bitcoin Fibonacci retracement levels by selecting an extreme low and high in an uptrend and vice versa. This can be done using the Fibonacci retracement tool available in most charting software, including the TickTrader platform by FXOpen.
Observe price action at the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels. Each level acts as an area that may prompt a reversal. If the price breaks through one level, it can be assumed the trend is continuing and that the asset will move to the next level.
When drawing the Fibonacci retracement, it’s essential to follow these two rules:
When looking to plot support levels, set the first point at a swing low and the second at a swing high.
When looking to plot resistance levels, set the first point at a swing high and the second at a swing low.
Optimising Entries and Exits
While Fibonacci retracements can help traders pinpoint support and resistance levels, there are a few factors to consider to make the most out of Fibs for crypto trading.
Trade with the Trend
Like many technical tools, Fibonacci retracements are best applied in line with a broader trend. While you might be looking for a short-term reversal, the setup will have the highest probability of working as expected when it conforms to a higher timeframe trend. In other words, you would want to look for retracements in a larger uptrend and vice versa.
Think of the Levels as Areas
Like traditional support and resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels shouldn’t be treated as the exact point where the price will reverse. It happens occasionally, but the price will often move slightly beyond the level before reversing as expected. It may even stop just short of it. Instead, you can treat them as areas of interest and then wait for confirmation using other tools.
Combine Fibs with Other Technical Tools
When looking at a crypto Fibonacci chart, it can be tempting to simply set a limit order at one of the significant levels and call it a day. While this sometimes works, there’s no guarantee these areas will remain consistent. It’s better to evaluate the likelihood that the area will hold, or is holding, using other tools.
For example, you could look for it to line up with a horizontal support/resistance level or a trendline. Momentum indicators, like the relative strength index (RSI), can also offer insights into whether the trend is weakening and is due for a reversal. Additionally, candlestick and chart patterns can provide extra confirmation.
Strategies for Trading Bitcoin with Fibonacci Retracements
Let’s take a look at some specific Fibonacci retracement strategies you can use to trade Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Trend Trading with Support and Resistance
This approach simply requires identifying a broader trend and waiting for a pullback to one of the key levels that lines up with the horizontal support and resistance level.
Entry: Limit orders can be set at the level within the support/resistance area. Alternatively, you could wait for the area to show signs of reversal before entering with a market order.
Stop Loss: Stop losses can be set just above (in an uptrend) or below (downtrend) the horizontal area. It should be somewhere that invalidates your idea without being unnecessarily wide.
Take Profit: Traders often begin to take profits at the chosen high or low. In the example shown, we could start to take profit at the retracement’s swing low.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Divergences and Fibonacci
This strategy combines the popular momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), with the Fibonacci retracement tool. Specifically, we’re looking for divergences that indicate a potential reversal as the price moves to a Fib level.
Entry: Wait for a regular divergence to appear at a significant Fibonacci level (right-hand trendline). When the price shows signs of reversal, validating both the retracement and the divergence, traders can enter with a market order.
Stop Loss: A stop can be placed above or below the entry candle, depending on the direction of the trade.
Take Profit: As with the previous strategy, a good place to consider taking profit is at the high or low of your plotted retracement.
As a bonus here, we also have a hidden divergence (the left-hand trendline) that indicates that bullish momentum is likely to happen.
Fibonacci and Chart Patterns
In this strategy, we use chart patterns to confirm the level is holding. In the Bitcoin Fibonacci chart shown, we’ve used a bullish wedge (a common reversal pattern), but you can use any pattern you prefer.
Entry: After observing a chart pattern at a retracement level, you could wait for the pattern to be confirmed with a breakout. Then, you may enter on the retest of the pattern’s trendline. In this example, we could wait for the upper trendline to be broken before waiting for a pullback and entering.
Stop Loss: Stops can be placed above or below the pattern’s opposing trendline. Here, we’d place it below the wedge’s bottom trendline.
Take Profit: You could take profit at the retracement tool's extreme points.
This setup also had extra confirmation with the double bottom before the wedge broke out, providing a high-probability trade.
Confirming Fibonacci with Other Technical Indicators
Of course, RSI isn’t the only indicator you can combine with Fibonacci retracements. Here are some other popular indicators to use:
Moving Averages: Moving averages can offer dynamic support and resistance levels that add extra confluence to a Fib setup. Longer-term averages, like a 50 or 200-period moving average, are often respected. Meanwhile, pairing two faster moving averages can help confirm reversals when they cross over.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are often used to spot potential reversals. Touches to the band that move away sharply can be a sign of a reversal and, when combined with a retracement level, can make for a decent entry.
MACD: MACD is another momentum indicator that can help traders find reversals. When the MACD and signal lines cross at a Fibonacci level, this can indicate a reversal is inbound.
Risk Management Techniques
As with all trading strategies, risk management is critical to a sustainable system. However, there are a few techniques that are specific to Fib retracements.
Look For High-Quality Setups
The first step in managing your risk is to only trade the best setups. This means looking for Fibonacci trades that have multiple confirmation factors and waiting patiently to see what you want to see. You might miss some moves this way, but it’ll also keep you out of many losing trades.
Set Logical Stop Losses
When using Fibonacci retracements in crypto, it can be tricky knowing where to place your stop loss. It’s good practice to consider the wider context of your trade idea and how your stop-loss placement fits into it.
If you’re confident that the retracement level will hold or are trading short-term price movements, setting a stop loss beyond the entry level is suitable. Likewise, if you’re less confident that the area will prompt a reversal or are taking a longer-term view of the market, then you may prefer to set your stop loss at the high or low of the Fibonacci retracement.
Establish Take Profit Targets in Advance
By knowing where you want to exit a profitable trade, you prevent yourself from giving up too much profit by holding on too long. Using the take-profit levels discussed is a good place to start, as are Fibonacci extensions.
Develop a Rule-Based System
Having clearly defined rules for Fibonacci entries will remove a lot of the guesswork that comes with discretionary trading. It helps you find the best quality setups, avoid impulsive decision-making, and means you can easily adjust your strategy as you progress.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
When using Fibonacci in crypto trading, traders can sometimes fall into pitfalls. Let’s examine some of the most common errors.
Confusing Highs and Lows: As mentioned, selecting a high or low as your first point when plotting the retracement depends on whether you’re looking for support or resistance. Be sure to follow the rules described earlier to avoid any confusion.
Confusing Fibonacci Retracements for Extensions: Retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback, while extensions project potential target levels beyond the original high or low. Double-check the name of the tool you’re using to avoid getting the two mixed up.
Ignoring the Bigger Picture: Always consider the overall market context and trend before making a trade. If the market is strongly trending in one direction, a reversal at a Fibonacci level might be less likely.
Misidentifying Significant Price Points: Selecting the correct high and low points is essential for accurate retracement levels. This usually means selecting the most extreme swing highs and lows that are easily visible. Take your time to identify the most significant price points, and be prepared to adjust your points as the market progresses.
Closing Thoughts
In summary, Fibonacci retracements can make for an excellent addition to your crypto trading arsenal. While they shouldn’t be used in isolation, combining Fibs with other technical tools and indicators can make for an effective strategy.
However, the tips, techniques, and strategies described here aren’t exclusive to crypto: they can be applied to whichever market you prefer to trade, like forex, stocks, and commodities. Want to see for yourself? You can open an FXOpen account to gain access to these markets and the advanced TickTrader platform, where you’ll find the Fibonacci retracement tool and the indicators discussed waiting for you. Good luck!
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Double EMA Strategy...For Beginners Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday! It's a new week which means many new opportunities to get into the market...but it doesn't mean that you have to take all of them.
Make sure you focus on finding the best setups by sticking to your plan and following your confirmation checklist. The best out of 25 will give you a good idea of your win/loss ratio.
If you are still struggling to find a SIMPLE strategy that works for you, try using this Double EMA strategy that I apply to my trades. Let me know what you think and if it works for you!
Today we will cover:
1. How to use EMAs on Tradingview
2. Double EMA Strategy
3. Feel confident taking a buy or sell in Forex trades
4. Trade with the trend
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Where to Put Your TP and SL | Learn in 10 MinutesHey Rich Friends,
This quick video will explain how I easily find my TP and SL for my Forex Trades. I've noticed how many new traders struggle with this, so hopefully this video will help. Here is what I do:
1 . Identify the overall trend of the market.
It is important to understand that a Selling market will look like a roller coaster going up, have more red candles and it will continue to create Lower Highs and Lower Lows. A Buying market will look like a roller coaster going down, have more green candles, and continue to create Higher Highs and Higher Lows. This is very important.
2 . Collect my confirmations for the potential trade. Here are some questions I ask myself:
- What color is the current candle?
- Are the candles above or below my EMAs?
- Have the EMAs crossed?
- Is my Momentum indicator facing up or down? Is it positive or negative?
- Is my Stochastic facing up or down? Is the Indicator's financial value above 50?
These are the answers you should get:
- Bullish/Buying: Green, Above, Up, Over, Higher, and Positive
- Bearish/Selling: Red, Below, Down, Under, Lower and Negative
3. Enter the market at Market Execution or set a Pending Order.
4. Choose my TP and SL using the Long position tool for buying and the Short position tool for selling.
Buys: Place TP above previous high and SL below the previous low
Sells: Place TP below previous low and SL above the previous high
- Peace and Profits, Cha
Scalping Strategy for Trading BTCUSD on 15minThe Bollinger Band is a versatile technical indicator. It identifies trend direction, momentum, volatility, and overbought or oversold price conditions. This indicator provides all this information using three lines.
The middle line of the classic Bollinger Bands is based on a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Two lines are then drawn above and below the middle line forming a channel. The upper and lower lines are derived from the middle line by computing for the standard deviation of price movements compared to the 20 SMA.
Because the outer bands are based on a standard deviation of price movements, the band tends to contract during market conditions with low volatility and expands during an influx of volume and volatility. Price breaching the bands could indicate a strong momentum, while price rejecting the outer lines could signal a probable mean reversal.
The middle line of the Bollinger Band could also be used just as a standard Simple Moving Average. Trend could be based on how the line is sloping. It could also be used as a dynamic support or resistance line where price could bounce off.
Advanced Bollinger Bands is a modified Bollinger Band which allows more control over how the lines are drawn. Traders could modify the type of moving average, the basis of price being applied to the computation, and much more.
== MACD Signals ==
The classic Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) is based on the difference between a 12-period and 26-period Exponential Moving Average. It is then displayed as an oscillator that becomes positive during an uptrend and negative during a downtrend. A second line, called the signal line, is then derived from the MACD line. The signal line is a Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the MACD line. Trade signals are then generated based on the crossing over of the MACD line and the signal line.
MACD Signals is modified version of the classic MACD. It allows more control for traders by allowing traders to tweak the type of moving average line used on each parameter. It could also be set to indicate trade signals generated by the MACD.
The MACD Signals is displayed as an oscillating histogram. Positive bars indicate a bullish trend while negative bars indicate a bearish trend. Trade signals could be generated based on the crossing of the bars over its midline.
== Trading Strategy ==
This trading strategy identifies possible trade setups based on the crossing over of a 5-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) line and the midline of the Bollinger Bands. These signals should be in confluence with the signals generated by the MACD Signals indicator.
Trades should first be filtered based on the direction of the long-term trend. To do this, we will be using a 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Trend direction are simply based on the location of price in relation to the 200 SMA, as well as the slope of the 200 SMA line.
Then, we will be waiting for a confluence of the crossover of the 5 SMA line and midline of the Bollinger Band and the trend reversal signal generated by the MACD bars.
Trades are then confirmed based on the type of price action and candlestick patterns occurring around significant areas on the Bollinger Bands. It could be an indication of price rejection of the outer bands or a strong momentum as price crosses over the midline.
== Indicators ==
200 SMA (Green)
bollinger_bands (default setting with 21 MA)
MACD_Signals
MAFast: 6
MASlow: 15
MASignal: 1
Preferred Time Frames: 15 min
Trading Sessions : Tokyo, London and New York sessions
== Buy Trade Setup ==
Entry
Price should be above the 200 SMA line.
The 200 SMA line should be sloping up.
The 5 SMA line should cross above the midline of the Bollinger Band.
Price action should show bullish patterns and indications.
Enter a buy order on the confirmation of these conditions.
Stop Loss
Set the stop loss on the fractal below the entry candle.
Exit
Close the trade as soon as price closes below the midline (21MA) of the Bollinger Band.