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Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year. There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now. Bitcoin On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support. But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always) Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks. As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period. The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high. On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon. But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out. If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week. But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Send us an email or message us on social media. cheers! Jasper
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
11
Identifying Fakeouts and Enhancing Risk Management in TradingEducational Purpose: This tutorial aims to educate traders on identifying fakeouts, understanding their characteristics, and improving risk management strategies to avoid common pitfalls. Key Educational Points: 1. What is a Fakeout? A fakeout occurs when the price temporarily breaks a key support or resistance level but fails to sustain the move, reversing quickly. It often traps traders who enter prematurely. 2. Spotting Fakeouts: Volume Analysis: Fakeouts typically show weak volume during the breakout. Always confirm breakouts with a noticeable increase in volume. Market Context: In range-bound or choppy markets, breakouts are less reliable. Look for additional confirmation before entering trades. Follow-Through: Wait for at least one or two candles to close above resistance or below support after a breakout. 3. Risk Management During Fakeouts: Set Tight Stop-Losses: Place stop-loss orders close to the breakout level to minimize losses if the move fails. Use Confluence: Combine multiple factors (e.g., trendlines, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements) for stronger confirmation. Plan Your Targets: Avoid overly aggressive targets unless the breakout is supported by strong market structure and volume. 4. Trading Psychology: Patience is Key: Do not rush into trades at the first sign of a breakout. Wait for confirmations to reduce emotional decision-making. Learn from Losses: Treat fakeouts as learning opportunities. Analyze what went wrong and refine your approach. Practical Application: In the attached chart of 1000BONK/USDT, a failed breakout (fakeout) highlights these principles: Weak volume during the breakout. Lack of follow-through above resistance. A reversal that would have been avoided by waiting for confirmation. This tutorial emphasizes that proper confirmation, risk management, and trading psychology are essential for avoiding fakeouts and improving overall performance. Let me know your thoughts or share how you approach such situations!
Education
by MyTradingJournal6th
I need objective information to help me interpret the chart Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- With this decline, the BW(100) indicator was created at 104556.23. Accordingly, the high boundary section is the 101947.24-104556.23 section. Unfortunately, since it fell below 101947.24, the key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, i.e., around 98892.0, and rise. If it falls below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and shows resistance, it is highly likely to turn into a short-term downtrend. - The settings for the StochRSI indicator I use are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D). The source value is ohlc4. If you set it as above, it will show a movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart. When the StochRSI indicator - falls in the overbought zone, - is located near the 50 point, - rises in the oversold zone, volatility is likely to occur. However, you should check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and think of a corresponding response plan. Therefore, by checking the relationship between the movement of the StochRSI indicator and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can choose the point where you can make a trade. If you can calculate these selection points, I think it is highly likely that you will be able to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style. It is good to predict future movements with trends or waves, but if you can calculate the point where you can actually make a trade, I think you can create a better trading strategy. - I wrote a long article, but 1. Will the StochRSI indicator fall in the overbought zone? 2. Will it receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator? 3. Will it rise to the high boundary section? You should focus on the three things above. --------------------------------- The method of drawing support and resistance points is drawn according to the arrangement of candles. This method can actually include subjective thoughts, so it requires skill. Therefore, if possible, I recommend that you sign up as a paid member of TradingView and share my charts with me, and use the HA-High, HA-Low, BW(100), BW(0), OBV, +100, -100 indicators that appear on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts by the HA-MS_BW+v2 indicator as horizontal lines and use them as support and resistance points. Then, even if others look at the charts, they will be easier to understand, and it will be easier to share opinions on trading strategies according to each other's investment styles. By utilizing indicators that anyone can use in this way, you will be able to view the charts objectively. If you trade based on what others tell you, you will likely not be able to respond quickly when sudden volatility occurs. Therefore, when creating a trading strategy, you should roughly think about how to respond to all cases, both when it goes up and when it goes down. That's why it's best to draw support and resistance points or other reference materials on your chart if possible and prepare countermeasures accordingly. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
LEGEND SPEAKS #2 (Paul Tudor Jones)Paul Tudor Jones is a legendary hedge fund manager known for his ability to predict market movements and his disciplined, strategic approach to trading. His success in both traditional markets and commodities, combined with his risk management techniques, has made him one of the most respected names in the world of finance. His insights and trading philosophy offer invaluable lessons for anyone looking to improve their trading strategies. Here are some key lessons that traders and investors can learn from Paul Tudor Jones’ remarkable career. 1. The Importance of Risk Management One of the core principles that Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes is risk management. He is famous for saying, "The most important thing is to play defense, not offense." Rather than focusing on maximizing gains, Jones prioritizes minimizing losses. His approach involves cutting losses quickly and letting profits run, which is critical for long-term success in trading. Key Takeaway: Cut losses quickly and allow profitable trades to run their course. Effective risk management is essential for preserving capital and staying in the game. 2. Focus on the Big Picture and Macro Trends Paul Tudor Jones is known for his macroeconomic perspective. He focuses on big-picture trends, such as interest rates, inflation, and global economic shifts, to guide his trading decisions. Jones is particularly famous for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, where he profited by betting against the market based on his macroeconomic analysis. Key Takeaway: Understand macroeconomic trends and how they influence the markets. A deep understanding of the broader economic landscape can help inform your trading decisions and give you a competitive edge. 3. Adaptability and Flexibility One of the defining features of Paul Tudor Jones' career is his ability to adapt to changing market conditions. While many traders stick to rigid strategies, Jones remains flexible and willing to adjust his approach based on new data or changing trends. This adaptability is key to navigating volatile and unpredictable markets. Key Takeaway: Be flexible in your approach. Stay open to new information and be willing to change your strategy if the market conditions shift. 4. Trust Your Instincts, but Rely on Data Jones believes in the power of intuition, but he stresses the importance of using data to back up your instincts. While his ability to predict market movements may seem like intuition, it’s actually a combination of deep market knowledge, research, and pattern recognition. Jones once said, "The secret to successful trading is to know yourself." His success stems from his ability to merge data analysis with his own experience and gut feeling. Key Takeaway: Combine data analysis with intuition. Trust your instincts, but ensure they’re grounded in sound research and market data. 5. Cutting Losses is Key to Long-Term Success Jones' philosophy on cutting losses is one of the cornerstones of his trading strategy. He advocates that losing a small amount of money is far better than holding onto a losing position in hopes of a rebound. He uses strict stop-loss rules to ensure he doesn’t let any position turn into a large loss. Key Takeaway: Implement strict stop-loss rules. Don’t allow losses to compound. By cutting losses early, you ensure that they don’t derail your overall strategy. 6. Be Patient and Wait for Opportunities Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes patience in trading. He is known for waiting until the right opportunity presents itself rather than rushing into trades. He waits for high-probability setups and takes positions when the risk-to-reward ratio is in his favor. Key Takeaway: Be patient and wait for high-probability setups. Don’t rush into trades; wait for favorable conditions and a solid risk-to-reward ratio. 7. Use Leverage Wisely Paul Tudor Jones has been known to use leverage in his trading, but he does so cautiously. He understands the power of leverage to amplify gains but also the danger of excessive leverage leading to significant losses. His careful use of leverage allows him to take advantage of market opportunities without overexposing his portfolio. Key Takeaway: Use leverage cautiously. Leverage can amplify returns but also magnify losses. Always assess the risks before using leverage in your trades. 8. The Role of Psychological Resilience in Trading Psychological resilience is a key element of Paul Tudor Jones' trading philosophy. He understands that trading can be emotionally taxing, especially during periods of loss or volatility. To succeed, traders must remain calm, avoid emotional decision-making, and be able to bounce back from setbacks. Key Takeaway: Maintain psychological resilience. Stay calm, avoid making impulsive decisions based on emotions, and learn from your mistakes rather than letting them define you. 9. Always Have a Plan, and Stick to It Paul Tudor Jones is a firm believer in having a plan and sticking to it. Before entering any trade, he makes sure he has a well-thought-out strategy in place, including entry and exit points, risk management rules, and an understanding of the overall market environment. He emphasizes that trading without a plan is a recipe for failure. Key Takeaway: Develop a trading plan and stick to it. Having a structured approach to each trade, including risk management and clear objectives, is essential for long-term success. 10. Success is a Long-Term Game Paul Tudor Jones emphasizes that trading and investing are not about making quick profits but about building wealth over the long term. His strategy is based on understanding the markets deeply, being patient, and focusing on consistent performance rather than short-term gains. Key Takeaway: Focus on long-term success. Avoid chasing short-term profits and concentrate on building sustainable wealth over time. Conclusion: Applying Paul Tudor Jones’ Lessons to Your Trading Strategy Paul Tudor Jones' success as a trader and investor stems from his commitment to disciplined risk management, macroeconomic analysis, adaptability, and emotional resilience. By focusing on big-picture trends, using data and intuition, cutting losses quickly, and patiently waiting for opportunities, traders can improve their decision-making processes and achieve long-term success. Moreover, applying Jones' principles of psychological resilience, having a clear trading plan, and using leverage wisely can help traders build a stable foundation for consistent growth. By adopting these insights, traders can navigate volatile markets with greater confidence and build a solid, long-term trading strategy.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by keshevdugar
Best way to get into the market in 20251. Identify your htf. 2. Identify a htf bias. 3. Identify your current trading range on your htf. 4. Identify your premium or discount level. 5. Inside your premium or discount level identify your htf point of interest. 6. Wait for price to pull into your htf point of interest. 7. Pop down to a ltf where you'll observe bearish or bullish price action. 8. Wait for the buy model or sell model to play our wait fora market structure shift on the ltf. 9. Your new range will be on the ltf where there was a market structure shift which will give you a new range. 10. Mark out the range using your fibs and plot your discount or premium area. 11. Inside your ltf premium of discount level identify your ltf point of interest. 12.Enter at the poi( point of interest) inside these levels or set an entry at the retest.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by darrenblignaut78
The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP). At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked. I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on... But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified. Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things: - I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics. - I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally . It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in. A Brief Timeline of Chaos TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy. And then the madness began. Within hours: - Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing). - Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day. - Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4. Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes. The Crypto Community Splits This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! ) On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster. The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts. Is This a Rug Pull? Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House. That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall. My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher. So, here’s my advice: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Take profits while you can. Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
29
HOW TO TRADE with the ICHIMOKUThe Ichimoku is one of the best-trending indicators out there. The best strategy you could use is the CLOUD BREAK. When the price is breaking out of the cloud, you enter into a trade in this direction. This is the best strategy because the Ichimoku Indicator shows you multiple timeframes simultaneously, but the cloud is the highest timeframe, which means it is the strongest, and you will have fewer whipsaws and false entries with it. This indicator is also a great tool, to hold onto your winning trades and let your profits run. Once you get professional with it, you will know how to recognize both trending environments and ranging environments. This means that you will know how to apply different strategies that are fit to that specific environment.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by ZoharCho
Should You Follow Michael Saylor’s BTC Moves? Let’s Think TwiceIn the crypto world, Michael Saylor is a household name. The co-founder of MicroStrategy has become one of Bitcoin’s most vocal advocates, with his company accumulating a massive Bitcoin treasury. Many view his purchases as a signal of confidence, believing that if someone with his track record is buying, it must be the right move. But is it wise to follow his lead without question? Let’s take a closer look at the full story and consider why doing your homework is essential before jumping in headfirst. The Rise of Michael Saylor: Bitcoin’s Biggest Cheerleader Saylor didn’t become a prominent figure in the crypto space until 2020, when MicroStrategy announced its first Bitcoin purchase. Since then, he has positioned himself as a thought leader in the industry, frequently championing Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value. However, Saylor’s newfound reputation as a financial visionary often overshadows his earlier history—a history that’s worth examining. A Look Back: The Dot-Com Bubble and MicroStrategy’s Decline In the late 1990s, MicroStrategy rode the wave of the dot-com boom, with its stock soaring to impressive heights. But like many other tech companies of the era, it faced a harsh reality check when the bubble burst. MicroStrategy’s stock plummeted, and for the better part of two decades, it languished near its lows. During this period, Michael Saylor’s reputation as a business genius took a backseat. It wasn’t until Bitcoin’s meteoric rise—and MicroStrategy’s pivot to buying and holding Bitcoin—that Saylor regained the spotlight. Is It Genius or Just Timing? Here’s the question we need to ask: Is Michael Saylor’s success in Bitcoin a result of brilliant foresight, or was he simply in the right place at the right time? Bitcoin’s Performance: The timing of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases coincided with a strong bull run in the market. This rise in Bitcoin’s value undoubtedly contributed to Saylor’s renewed status as a financial savant. Reputation Rebound: It’s easy to appear “smart” when your investments are soaring. But how much of that success is due to skill, and how much is due to external factors like market trends? The Danger of Blindly Following Big Names While it’s tempting to follow someone like Michael Saylor, assuming he has insider knowledge or an unbeatable strategy, history teaches us a valuable lesson: Even Experts Can Be Wrong: Many celebrated investors have made costly mistakes, especially when riding trends. The dot-com bubble is a prime example of how quickly fortunes can change. Market Conditions Are Key: What worked for Saylor may not work for everyone, especially as market conditions evolve. Bitcoin’s past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Importance of Doing Your Own Homework Instead of blindly following big names, take the time to develop your own understanding of the market. Consider: Risk Tolerance: Are you prepared for the volatility that comes with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Market Fundamentals: Do you understand the underlying factors driving the asset’s value? Your Strategy: Does buying Bitcoin (or any other asset) align with your financial goals and investment timeline? Final Thoughts Michael Saylor’s success with Bitcoin is undeniably impressive, but it’s essential to view his story in context. His rise to prominence as a Bitcoin advocate came after years of MicroStrategy’s struggles, and much of his newfound fame coincided with Bitcoin’s broader bull market. Rather than simply mimicking his moves, take a step back and assess your own strategy. Remember, the smartest investors aren’t those who blindly follow the crowd—they’re the ones who do their research, weigh the risks, and make informed decisions. In trading and investing, doing your homework is the real key to success. Don’t let someone else’s narrative cloud your judgment.
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Bitcoin (BTC): This Bull Run Will Be Different!Pretty sure 80% of people are about to lose most of their money soon. There’s way too much ‘dumb money’ being thrown into the markets right now. Panic will set in, especially for those who struggle to control their emotions while trading. Trading isn’t just about ‘buy low, sell high.’ Markets have their own rhythm each cycle, and that rhythm is always unique and different. Even if you look at previous bull market tops, each one was formed differently. If you’ve been following us and sense that we know what we’re talking about, listen carefully: ◼️ Stay away from the markets when conditions are unclear. ◼️ Not every day is a trading day. ◼️ High leverage will destroy you. ◼️ And remember, unrealized P&L is not profit—sometimes you just have to take those profits! Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SwallowAcademy
48
Crude OIL SHORT Today Ran For +4R BreakdownNYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt Stop / +4R Run... Well Done!! Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
2
HOW-TO: Optimize Risk in Volatile Markets on TradingViewThe Fractional Accumulation Distribution Strategy (FADS) is designed to dynamically optimize entry points and position sizing based on market conditions. It leverages volatility-based trend detection and adaptive scaling to identify high-probability demand and supply zones using ranges from higher timeframes. In volatile markets, traders can improve capital allocation and optimize their personal risk preference in various ways when using FADS. The settings used in this demonstration differ from the default script settings to highlight specific features or behaviors under unique market conditions. Users are encouraged to experiment with these parameters to suit their trading preferences. USE CASES: Adjust volatility setting to adapt to any timeframe Traders with high risk tolerance can use lower volatility period to increase the frequency of accumulation and distribution phases which often results in entering at higher price levels. To optimize for a better trend capture, the period can be increased to filter out minor fluctuations resulting in better entry and exit price levels. Adjusting Volatility Input and Range for Higher Timeframes Working with higher timeframes such as daily in a volatile market, reducing risk can be achieved by increasing the volatility input and reducing the period. Adjusting Positions Spacing via Spreads Settings The Accumulation and Distribution Spreads are one of the conditional components, defining how the strategy scales into positions during separate phases. Accumulation Spread determines the distance between additional buy positions during the accumulation phase. A trader with a lower risk tolerance can use larger value to increase the distance between buy orders, leading to fewer trades and a more conservative accumulation. In contrast, smaller values increase frequency of buy orders leading to a more aggressive accumulation. In extreme volatile markets, a larger distance between entry positions can significantly improve average cost of trades and capital conservation. Distribution Spread determines the distance between exits during the Distribution Phase. Larger value increases the distance between sell orders, reducing sell frequency and leading to more deliberate distribution. Smaller value decreases the distance, making the strategy more aggressive in taking profits or scaling out of positions. Increased DS forces strategy to distribute at higher price levels which in its turn increases potential profits as well as risks! Keep in mind that markets are unpredictable so increase it considering y risk tolerance. Cross-Functional Setup for FADS Here’s how the setup impacts performance across two scenarios: Default Setup for 15-Minute Timeframe: Using the default setting on smaller timeframes like 15 minutes naturally reduces the number of trades. This is due to filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on extreme price levels influenced by weekly volatility metrics. This approach works well for traders seeking fewer but more strategic entries and exits. Custom Setup for Higher Trade Frequency for 15-Minute Timeframe: For traders using smaller timeframes and seeking to capture more frequent fluctuations, the following adjustment approaches can help balance increased trade frequency while reducing risk. Adjust Volatility Factor Reduce the volatility factor to 'Daily' from 'Weekly' to increase the number of trades by capturing more fluctuations. Increase Period Increase the period to smooth trends and compensate for higher volatility, which helps filter out minor fluctuations and reduces overall trade count. Increase Accumulation Threshold Raise the accumulation threshold to target lower price levels, which reduces trade frequency and lowers risk by focusing on more significant price drops. Adjust Accumulation Spread Increase the accumulation spread to leave larger gaps between entry points during the accumulation phase, reducing risk. Additionally, uncheck the accumulation spread checkbox to increase frequency of trades at targeted zones. Rationale: By reducing the volatility factor to 'Daily,' the number of trades increases as smaller price fluctuations are captured. To offset the associated risks, adjustments to the accumulation threshold and spread help filter for better trade opportunities.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
More Than a Matter of Taste. The Timeframe is EverythingHigher Timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) Lower Timeframes (intraday timeframe) Influential educators often propagate misleading ideas that cost the community money. One of the most harmful and, sadly, widely accepted opinions is: "Since the market is fractal, all timeframes are equal. The timeframe is just a matter of taste." Today, I want to debunk this myth, relying not only on my studies on the subject but also on the most basic logic. Mass Psychology: Higher timeframes, by aggregating more emotions over longer periods, reflect the psychology of investors more clearly and consistently, thus, a historical record will be more reliable and complete in larger time frames. Manipulation: Higher timeframes require a larger volume of capital to be manipulated since the interests forming the price action are backed by generally well-capitalized participants who operate with long-term goals. News: Movements in higher timeframes are less influenced by short-term news, offering a more stable and often more predictive perspective of the market. Randomness: Randomness increases with shorter timeframes. An example of this is the decrease in the success rate of trading systems as we move to lower timeframes. Profitable (documented) systems on daily charts can become unusable on 4-hour or 1-hour timeframes. Additional Elements: -There are well-documented profitable trading systems in works by technical analysts like Larry Connor or Thomas Bulkowski, always with a focus on daily or higher timeframes. To date, there are no documented systems for timeframes like 5 or 15 minutes, nor is there a scalper with a transparent record of predictions demonstrating the profitability of their approach. -All classic indicators (MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, Donchian Channels, Williams Alligator, Ichimoku Cloud, Parabolic SAR, DMI, etc.) have been created based on a daily or higher timeframe. -All known classic methodologies (Dow Theory, Chartism, Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Method, Gann Theories, Hurst Cycles, Japanese Candlestick Patterns, etc.) were developed with a daily or higher timeframe focus. -All renowned technical analysts have applied a daily or higher timeframe approach to generate wealth. On Some Authors: -Richard W. Schabacker (the true father of Technical Analysis) in his book "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits" (1932) structured market fluctuations into Major Movements (monthly chart or higher), Intermediate Movements (weekly chart), and Minor Movements (daily chart). His analyses were based on understanding these timeframes, and his methodology, now known as "chartism" (though extremely misunderstood and manipulated), warned that it should be used in these timeframes. "The longer it takes for the chart to form any pattern, the greater the predictive significance of that pattern and the longer the subsequent move will be, the length, size, and strength of our formation." He also addressed the topic of manipulation and the high cost of consistently manipulating timeframes like the weekly one. -Dirk du Toit in his book titled "Bird Watching in Lion Country" comments: "The smaller your timeframe, the greater the randomness of what you are observing. If you are watching price changes every five or fifteen minutes, the degree of randomness is very high, and your likelihood of anticipating the next correct price movement, or series of price movements, is very low." "A coin, like a five-minute chart, has no memory. Just because it has come up heads eight times in a row, it doesn't start to 'adjust' to provide the required probability balance of a 50/50 ratio in a certain number of tosses. Five or fifteen-minute charts are the same. Trying to predict whether the next five-minute period will end up or down is exactly like flipping a coin." -In the documentary titled "Trader" (1987), we observe that despite Wall Street's aggressive style, Paul Tudor analyzed price action on daily and higher timeframes, comparing the historical record of his charts with events as significant as the 1929 Crash. He even used classic methods like Elliott Wave Theory to detect long-term opportunities. Conclusions: In an occupation in decline, turned into an entertainment industry, we should be extremely cautious. It's no coincidence that aggressive marketing is focused on selling us the dream of getting rich quickly. In the past, only a minority could access markets, but now we are all potential customers regardless of our capital. Platforms know that "hard work" and "long-term consistency" are unmarketable phrases. They want to exploit masses of gullible people, and to fill their coffers, they will show an easy path to "financial freedom." The chances of surviving in this environment of deceptive advertising are nil if one does not question everything. Do we not look to the past to make decisions under the premise that history tends to repeat itself? Then we should look to the classic works in these times of uncertainty. It's a long and lonely path, but it's the only path. 99% of current educators and writers are not technical analysts. None record their predictions, none trade in real-time. They are merely opportunists feeding off people's hopes. It's better to dust off the works of the fathers of Technical Analysis than to spend the next 5 years reading about psychotrading and seeking magical solutions on YouTube. Question everything. The only thing you can never question is your capabilities.
Education
by Especulador96
From Novice to Scalping Master: The Art of Reading CandlesticksMastering Scalping Trading Through Candlestick Patterns In the realm of financial markets, scalping trading has emerged as a popular strategy for many investors seeking to capitalize on short-term price movements. Differing from long-term investment approaches, scalping entails making quick trades based on small price fluctuations, often holding positions for mere minutes or seconds. To succeed in this fast-paced environment, traders must hone their analytical skills and mastery of various tools—among which candlestick patterns are paramount. Understanding these patterns can provide traders with insights into market sentiment and potential price reversals, proving especially beneficial in the context of scalping. This essay delves into the intricate world of candlestick patterns, categorizing them into bearish and bullish formations, and examining some of the most significant patterns that traders should master. The Foundation of Candlestick Patterns Candlestick charts, originating from Japanese rice traders in the 18th century, have evolved into a universal tool for market analysis. Each candlestick provides a visual representation of price movement within a specific time frame, encapsulating opening, closing, high, and low prices. By analyzing these candlesticks, traders can infer market sentiment and potentially anticipate future movements. A comprehensive understanding of bullish and bearish candlestick patterns is critical for any trader seeking success in scalping. Bearish Candlestick Patterns Bearish candlestick patterns indicate a potential reversal of an upward trend, signaling that prices may decline in the near future. Among the most notable bearish patterns is the Three Black Crows, characterized by three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks, each opening within the previous body and closing lower. This pattern suggests a strong downward momentum and a high likelihood of further declines. Another prominent pattern is the Bearish Engulfing pattern, wherein a small bullish candle is followed by a larger bearish candle that completely engulfs the previous one. This stark contrast denotes a shift in control from buyers to sellers and serves as a powerful bearish signal. The Three Inside Down pattern, consisting of a bullish candle followed by a smaller bearish candle within it, and concluding with a bearish candle that closes below the first candle’s low, further exemplifies a market reversal. Bearish Meeting Lines represent another vital bearish pattern, occurring when a bullish candle is followed by a bearish candle that opens above the previous candle’s close but closes at or near a similar price level. This pattern indicates hesitation among buyers and can serve as a cue for sellers to enter the market. Bullish Candlestick Patterns Conversely, bullish candlestick patterns suggest potential upward reversals, signifying that prices may rise after a downtrend. The Three White Soldiers pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied bullish candles, each opening within the previous body and closing higher. This pattern is indicative of strong bullish momentum and may signal a significant upward trend. The Hammer is a fundamental bullish pattern characterized by a small body and a long lower shadow, occurring after a downtrend. This candlestick shape indicates that buyers have stepped in to support the price, often suggesting the potential for a reversal. Similarly, the Bullish Engulfing pattern features a small bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle that engulfs it, signaling a shift in control from sellers to buyers. The Three Inside Up pattern begins with a bearish candle, followed by a smaller bullish candle within, and concludes with a bullish candle closing above the first candle’s high. It can signal the start of an upward trend. Meanwhile, the Bullish Breakaway indicates a transitioning phase where significant bullish momentum begins after consolidation. Complex Patterns for Intricate Analysis Beyond the primary patterns are more nuanced formations that warrant attention. The Advance Block and the Deliberation are sophisticated patterns that suggest market indecision, signaling possible directional changes. The Stick Sandwich, which features a bearish candle flanked by two bullish candles, conveys market uncertainty that can lead to bullish reversals. The Concealing Baby Swallow offers a blend of complex sentiments. This pattern arises when a small bullish candle appears in between two larger bearish candles, indicating that buyers are beginning to gain strength against the prevailing trend. Moreover, the Matching High and Matching Low patterns can signify potential reversal points in the market by indicating that prices are struggling to maintain upward or downward momentum. The Importance of Risk Management While mastery of candlestick patterns is indispensable, scalpers must also emphasize risk management. The inherent volatility and rapid nature of scalping necessitate a disciplined approach to trading. Utilizing stop-loss orders, position sizing, and adhering to a trading plan are essential practices that can safeguard traders from significant losses. Conclusion In conclusion, mastering scalping trading requires a comprehensive understanding of various candlestick patterns. From bullish formations such as the Three White Soldiers and Bullish Engulfing to bearish patterns like the Three Black Crows and the Bearish Engulfing, the ability to read these signals can significantly enhance a trader's effectiveness in the highly competitive realm of scalping. Additionally, by integrating sound risk management strategies, traders can navigate the complexities of market fluctuations with greater confidence and proficiency. The combination of analytical skill, experience, and strategy within the framework of candlestick analysis positions traders to thrive in the dynamic world of financial markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GentleGoldenEngine
32
XAU/USD - Scalping StrategyStrategy Summary: This strategy is designed for the M1 and M5 timeframes and has been personally tested, demonstrating strong results. It is a mechanical system with strict rules to ensure discipline and consistency in trading decisions. Whilst I have personally used this system on XAU/USD it can be applied to other volatile asset classes. Indicators Used: 1. 55-Moving Average (High) and 55-Moving Average (Low): * These create a channel to filter out trades during choppy market conditions. * No trades are taken if the price is within this channel. 2. Heiken Ashi Candles: * Used to identify the trend and determine entry/exit points. * Stay in a trade as long as candles remain green (for buys) or red (for sells). 3. Optional Indicator: * 200 Moving Average on a Higher Timeframe (HTF): * Use this for directional bias: * Only take buys if the price is above the 200-MA. * Only take sells if the price is below the 200-MA. Entry Criteria: Buy Setup: 1. Price breaks above the 55-MA (High) with a green Heiken Ashi candle. 2. Stop loss options: * Below the previous candle's low. * ATR x 2.5. Sell Setup: 1. Price breaks below the 55-MA (Low) with a red Heiken Ashi candle. 2. Stop loss options: * Above the previous candle's high. * ATR x 2.5. Risk Management & Rules: 1. Avoid Trades in the Channel: * No trades if the price is between the 55-MA High and Low. 2. Risk Management: * Risk no more than 0.5% of the account balance per trade. 3. Profit Targets: * Fixed Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1.5. * After reaching 1:1.5, either: * Move stop loss to breakeven. * Take partial profits and stay in the trade until the Heiken Ashi candle changes color. 4. Session Focus: * Trade during the Asian and New York sessions. Key Notes: * Align your trades with the Higher Timeframe Trend for better success. * Adding the 200-MA on from a higher timeframe can provide an additional layer of confluence: * Take buys only when price is above the 200-MA. * Take sells only when price is below the 200-MA.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by warsam
1
A Trader’s Guide to Pivot Points What Are Pivot Points? Pivot points are a popular technical indicator used by traders to help them predict significant areas in the market, such as potential support and resistance levels. These points are calculated by averaging the high, low, and closing prices of a previous period (which could be a day, a week, or a month) to establish possible trading zones for short-term traders. It’s important to remember that traders calculate pivot points in different ways depending on their strategic goals, but in this report, we will focus on a default calculation. Understanding Pivot Points When a market trades above its previous pivot point (P), it is considered a bullish signal. Conversely, trading below P is seen as bearish. Day traders often use pivot points to help them spot short-term trends. For example, if EUR/USD is trading above the previous day's P, traders might anticipate a continued climb and look to buy the pair before it reaches the next pivot point. This same style of trading can be applied on the bearish side as well, just in reverse. Finding Support and Resistance with Pivot Points Pivot points are not only used to gauge current price action, but also to identify potential upcoming support and resistance levels in a specific trading session. These levels are calculated as follows: Support Levels: S1, S2, S3 Resistance Levels: R1, R2, R3 These levels appear on a chart as parallel lines to P with the corresponding number next to them, such as S1 or S2, and can serve as possible profit targets or areas to open new positions. Calculating Pivot Points While you don’t need to manually calculate pivot points, especially if you’re on TradingView and utilizing our data feeds (i.e. FOREXCOM: GBPUSD ), understanding the calculations can be beneficial to employing these core concepts as you get started. To calculate P: Find the high, low, and closing prices for the previous period. Add these prices together and divide them by three. Then, mark this level on your chart as P. The calculations for S are more complex, but once again follow specific formulas that can be beneficial to understand: S1 = (P x 2) - Previous High S2 = P - (R1 - S1) S3 = P - (R2 - S2) Pivot Points Factsheet Pivot points are a versatile tool that can help traders make informed decisions by identifying key levels in the market. Whether you're a day trader or a swing trader, incorporating pivot points into your strategy can help you prepare and visualize upcoming zones on an intraday chart. Did you learn something new? Our team of researchers and market specialists will be sharing more educational content, so be sure to follow our TradingView account for instant updates. Also, be sure to check out our latest ideas here . Thanks for reading! The FOREX.com team
Education
by FOREXcom
The Hardest Part About Trading Isn't The Charts-Its Your MindWhen I first started trading, I thought the key to success was all about the strategy. If I could just figure out the right indicators or master technical analysis, I’d be unstoppable. But the truth hit me hard. I wasn’t losing because I didn’t understand the charts—I was losing because I didn’t understand myself. Here’s how I learned that the biggest battle in trading isn’t with the market—it’s with your own mind. Lesson 1: Stop Obsessing Over Results I used to get way too caught up in the outcome of every single trade. A win would make me feel on top of the world, but a loss? That would send me into a spiral. I’d overanalyze, doubt myself, and sometimes even swear I was done trading altogether. One day, I realized I was focusing on the wrong thing. Instead of asking, “Did I win or lose?” I started asking, “Did I follow my plan?” That simple shift changed everything for me. I started measuring success by how consistent I was, not by whether every trade was a winner. The funny thing? Once I started doing that, the wins came more naturally. Lesson 2: Losses Aren’t Failures I’ll never forget the trade that wiped out 30% of my account. It was gut-wrenching. I felt like I’d failed—not just as a trader, but as a person. It took me a long time to understand that losses are part of trading. Even the best traders take hits. What separates the pros from the rest is how they handle those losses. Now, instead of beating myself up, I treat losses as a chance to learn. Did I miss something in my analysis? Did I break my rules? Sometimes, the market just didn’t cooperate, and that’s okay. Lesson 3: Don’t Let Emotions Run the Show I can’t tell you how many times I’ve let emotions wreck me. Chasing losses, revenge trading, doubling down on bad positions—I’ve done it all. And every single time, it made things worse. The biggest game-changer for me was journaling my trades. Not just the technical stuff, but how I felt during the trade. -Was I calm or anxious? -Was I trading because it was a good setup or because I felt like I had to? It was eye-opening to see how much my emotions were driving my decisions. Now, if I feel frustrated or off, I don’t even touch the charts. I’d rather miss a trade than make a bad one. My Biggest Takeaway I Learned Trading isn’t just about the market—it’s about you. The strategies, the charts, the setups—they’re important, but they’re not enough. You need to master your mind if you want to master the market. I’m not perfect, and I still have tough days. But every step I’ve taken to manage my emotions, stay consistent, and focus on the process has brought me closer to where I want to be. If you’re struggling with the mental side of trading, I get it. I’ve been there. Send me a DM or check my profile—I’m happy to share what worked for me and help however I can. You don’t have to do this alone. Kris/Mindbloome Trading Trade What You See
NYSE:GMEEducation
by Mindbloome-Trading
3
Why Most Traders Fail (And How I Turned It Around)I still remember my first trade like it was yesterday. I had no idea what I was doing, but I convinced myself I was going to crush it. Spoiler alert: I didn’t. In fact, I wiped out 20% of my account in less than an hour. I sat there staring at my screen, wondering what the hell just happened. If you’ve been there, I get it. Trading isn’t easy—it’s brutal at times. The truth is, most traders fail not because they’re bad at it, but because they’re unprepared for what trading really demands. I’ve made every mistake you can think of, but here’s the good news: I’ve also learned how to turn it around. This isn’t theory—it’s my story. Lesson 1: Winging It Will Destroy You When I started, I thought trading was just about picking the right stock or currency and riding the wave. I’d watch a few YouTube videos, scan some charts, and think, “Yeah, this looks good!” It wasn’t. I was basically gambling with my money. What finally clicked: -I needed a plan, plain and simple. One day, I sat down and wrote out what I’d do: what I’d trade, how I’d manage risk, and when I’d call it a day. -The first time I actually stuck to my plan, I didn’t even win big. But for the first time, I felt in control, and that was everything. Lesson 2: Risking It All = Losing It All There was this one trade—I'll never forget it. I bet way more than I should’ve because I was sure I’d win. When it went south, I froze. I couldn’t bring myself to close it, and the losses just piled up. By the time I got out, half my account was gone. What saved me: -I learned to only risk a small percentage of my account—1-2% per trade. Yeah, it felt slow, but it kept me in the game. -I started using stop losses religiously. No more crossing my fingers and hoping for the best. Lesson 3: Emotions Are Your Worst Enemy I used to get so caught up in the highs and lows. A big win would make me feel invincible. A big loss? Devastated. I’d jump into revenge trades, trying to get my money back, and just dig myself deeper. What changed: -I started journaling every trade—not just the numbers, but how I felt. I noticed patterns, like how I’d overtrade when I was frustrated. -Now, if I feel off, I walk away. No charts, no trades, just a reset. Lesson 4: Overtrading Was My Addiction I thought trading more meant making more. So I’d take setups that were “meh” at best, just to feel like I was doing something. What helped: -I stopped looking for trades—I started waiting for them. -Now, I focus on one or two great setups a day. The rest? I let them go. Lesson 5: You Don’t Have to Know Everything At one point, I was drowning in information. I had 15 indicators on my chart, followed 20 gurus on Twitter, and read every trading blog I could find. It was overwhelming, and it didn’t help. My aha moment: -Simplicity wins. I stripped my charts down to the basics: price action, support/resistance, and a couple of indicators I actually understood. -I stopped chasing the “perfect” strategy and focused on mastering one approach. You Can Do This I’ll be honest—there were moments when I wanted to quit. Blowing up accounts, feeling like a failure, wondering if I was cut out for this... it was hard. But looking back, I’m glad I didn’t give up. If you’re struggling, I get it. I’ve been in your shoes, and I know how overwhelming it can feel. Send me a DM or check out my profile —I’m here, happy to share what worked for me and help however I can. Trading isn’t about being perfect. It’s about progress. So take a breath, refocus, and keep going. You’ve got this. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
TVC:SILVEREducation
by Mindbloome-Trading