QUICK LOOK AT A FEW INDICATORS AND INTEREST IN A SERIES?Quick overview testing out the upload from a browser on a ethernet connection computer vs wifi with the desktop downloaded app. Do you find value in this and want to make a regular series? Contact me if so and follow. Esp if your a developer and want to add some videos to your products, free, locked or paid. Im game. Platforms, customization and breaking down analytics is the life. Its what i enjoy and maybe you will too!
Thank you All,
DrawDownKing CME_MINI:ES1!
Trend Analysis
USDT dominance. (USDC is similar). 03 2025Time frame 1 week. Crypto market dominance to % USDT. I showed this for the first time on 03 2022, nothing has changed since then, everything is the same and the logic is identical.
USDT dominance. USDT pumping indicator to the market 03 2022
USDT dominance. Indicator of USDT pumping to and from the market 05 2022
✔️Stablecoin dominance is falling — the market is growing.
✔️Stablecoin dominance is growing — the market is falling.
It cannot be otherwise (capital movement), until the time when ETFs with the US dollar are not massively introduced and popular, they will draw some of the liquidity to themselves. Which will slightly change the logic of this trend itself. Comparable, in terms of impact on the market, as before the introduction of trading pairs to alts/USDT instead of BTC/alts (everyone was like that). Until then, USDT was needed.
You need to understand that the main " transitional dollar for the people ", that is, USDT , - reflects the trend of all stablecoins. In particular, the main "competitor" - USDC, all the others (a temporary phenomenon) do not matter. Until USDT exists and can be used to track the direction of the money flow, that is, the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
In 2022 09, I also showed this game of liquidity flow into ideas with the combined dominance of USDC + USDT + BTC chart. But this is already a complication, everything is already visible and clear on the dominance of USDT.
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. Correlation 2022 09
Remember, any stablecoin is an alt. The experience with UST (Moon Falling into an Urn) has taught many not to equate stablecoins to a real dollar.
The price stability of any stablecoin depends only on people's faith in its stability. This faith is projected by marketing activity, and first of all by the real capital that stands behind the creators. Everything conceived and implemented has a beginning and an end.
Bitcoin dominance to alts.
I will duplicate my latest idea on Bitcoin dominance here once again. I used it before (it was rational), before 2020 (I used to make a lot of ideas about local zones as triggers for market reversals). Now it doesn't do much. But I see people are fixated on this, not understanding the essence, and why it was so effective before and childishly clear when the market would be reversed (there were no pairs to USDT, but only alts to BTC).
Before 2018 (100% efficiency), before 2020 (partial), the dominance of Bitcoin to other alts was such an indicator of the pump/dump of the market. As it was the main direction of money flow. Almost all alts were traded only to Bitcoin.
Доминация BTC к альткоинам. Доминация стейблкоинов и памп рынка. 07 2022
Have a plan and understand what you are doing, observing money and risk management. As a result, you will be calm and satisfied with your profit from the market, if you are an adequate person.
Alt dominance.
And this is the idea of training/work (understanding the reversal zones of the crypto market of secondary trends) in 2023 on alts. That is, the dominance of alts without stablecoins, bitcoin and ether, which take away most of the market capitalization as a whole. The dominance is growing, naturally money is pouring into alta and vice versa. There are also similar ideas (look for publications in 2023) for certain groups of assets. That is, the point is to catch the hype, by groups of candy wrappers or, on the contrary, the threshold of stopping the flow of money into another hype.
BTC dominance to altcoins. Dominance of stablecoins and market pump . 07 2022
Without pain, there is no way for someone to gain benefits in the speculative market. Who will experience pain and who will gain benefits depends only on the qualities of the person who decided to engage in trading. That is, the totality of his positive/negative qualities that project his actions in the market. Everything is extremely simple and honest.
Dollar Index.
There are a series of interrelated ideas (three, detailed explanation), about the dollar index, that is, the larger cyclicality of the markets in general, and the crypto market as a small projection. Also, all publications of 2022-2023.
DXY Dollar Index USA. Recession and Pump/Dump Market Indicator 09 2022
DXY (Dollar Index) and Pump/Dump BTC. Market Cycles . 09 2022
What is Double Top or Double Bottom and how it works?Hello in this educational content we are talking about one of the major reversal pattern in market or maybe even the most important reversal pattern which is exist.
Double Top: Like the pattern mentioned on the chart now double Top is made by two reject from resistance but it is complete when the support or neckline of this two top break and then the pattern is complete and we can say this is a valid double Top and market now can get correction and get bearish.
here is chart & example take a look at Two kinds of Double Top available in my View:
As we can see sometimes price even made fake breakout to the upside or downside of the pattern and in these kinds of situation we can expect more fall if we had Advance Double Top because the liquidity was more at the beginning of second phase rejection.
We also have other Strong Reversal patterns like Head & shoulders and ... which you can mention them in comments or we may have another live post for them in next Educational posts.
most of You know about Regular Double top or Double Bottom and in this Educational post we mention some data about Advance form of it too and also so many know this form as regular form and consider this fake breakout a sign of good double Top and ....
Double Bottom is the same like the Double Top but reverse(This time support can not break two times and price after breaking neckline or resistance start to pump and bear market turn to bullish with Double Bottom).
DISCLAIMER: ((Always trade based on your own decision))-----this post is not signal content or analysis and just Try to talk about an important Reversal pattern with Example which happened also on Bitcoin in previous days in my Opinion.
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Comprehensive Market Analysis Checklist!This checklist is designed to help you perform a thorough analysis of the market to make informed trading decisions. It encompasses a range of technical and fundamental questions that should be considered before entering a trade.
Market Overview and Direction
1. What is the overall direction of the market?
2. What are the directions of various market sectors?
3. What are the weekly and monthly charts showing?
4. Are the major, intermediate, and minor trends moving up, down, or sideways?
5. Where are the important support and resistance levels?
6. Where are the important trendlines or channels?
7. Is volume and open interest confirming the price action?
Technical Pattern Recognition
8. Where are the 33%, 50%, and 66% retracements?
9. Are there any price gaps, and what type are they?
10. Are there any major reversal patterns visible?
11. Are there any continuation patterns visible?
12. What are the price objectives from those patterns?
13. Which direction are the moving averages pointing?
Oscillators and Indicators
14. Are the oscillators overbought or oversold?
15. Are there any divergences apparent on the oscillators?
16. Are contrary opinion numbers showing any extremes?
Advanced Technical Analysis
17. What is the Elliott Wave pattern showing?
18. Are there any obvious 3 or 5 wave patterns?
19. What about Fibonacci retracements or projections?
20. Are there any cycle tops or bottoms due?
21. Is the market showing right or left translation?
Trend Analysis Tools
22. Which way is the computer trend moving: up, down, or sideways?
23. What are the point and figure charts or candlestick patterns showing?
Trade Setup and Risk Management
Once you’ve arrived at a bullish or bearish conclusion, ask yourself the following questions:
1. What is the market’s likely trend over the next several months?
2. Am I going to buy or sell this market?
3. How many units will I trade?
4. How much am I prepared to risk if I’m wrong?
5. What is my profit objective?
6. Where will I enter the market?
7. What type of order will I use?
8. Where will I place my protective stop?
This comprehensive analysis will help you assess the market conditions from all angles and develop a well-thought-out strategy before making any trading decisions.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Reference:
Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance), p. 455.
Smart Money: Key Zones for Entry and Market RebalancingHello, friends!
Below is my market analysis, where for each key element of the Smart Money concept I use.
1. Premium/Discount zones allow me to quickly identify where capital works most profitably. Using the Fibonacci Correction tool, I find areas that indicate entry opportunities: buying in the discount zone and selling in the premium zone. This helps to form a basic picture of the market balance.
2.OTE helps me find optimal entry points by refining the zones defined by the basic correction. This tool allows me to look at possible entry areas in more detail, making the signals more accurate.
3. When analyzing market movements, I pay attention to FVGs that arise due to a lack of liquidity during impulse movements. Such cavities indicate an imbalance that the market is trying to eliminate, which creates additional opportunities for rebalancing and entering a position.
4.With ImpIMB analysis, I find imbalances where the center candle is significant and its wicks overlap on both sides. This allows me to isolate the zone that signals an aggressive market, giving additional trading clues without revealing all the details.
5.GAP is formed when a cavity appears between the extremes of candles due to a sharp market opening. Using Fibonacci, I outline these areas, because they often become benchmarks for future rebalancing and correction of market dynamics.
Best wishes Mvp_fx_hunter
DISASTER Recipe for trading destruction (5 Points)🏊♂️ Do You Ever Try Swimming Upstream?
Unless you’re doing it for exercise and the strain…
You’ll know it’s exhausting.
And if you go against the direction of the waves, you’ll get nowhere very slowly—until you either reach the destination or give up.
Well, I find that trading against the trend is just as bad.
When you trade against the trend – your EGO starts to talk.
Your opinions start to enhance, and your irrational mind begins to take over.
I feel I need to explain why it’s so dangerous to go against the trend.
Let’s dive in.
🚫 Never Force a Trend
The worst thing you can do is bottom or top pick a market.
What makes you feel that you know the market is about to turn?
❓ Do you have inside information?
❓ Do you have a stronger intuition?
❓ Did you do some crazy future analysis?
And what’s the point?
Let the market reach its bottom or top, turn around – move a bit in the new direction until you have confirmation.
And then POUNCE.
You only need 30% of the trend and then close for a profit.
⏳ Patience Pays Off
The market moves in cycles.
📈 Sometimes it’s a roaring bull.
📉 Other times it’s a sulking bear.
🐢 And other times, it’s a bladdy tortoise – going sideways to Timbuktu.
The best thing to do is wait for the market to move from an unfavourable environment into a favourable time for your system and strategy.
🔄 Reassess and wait.
There’s no rush in trading.
🔄 Adjust and Act
The markets are always evolving.
You need to continuously adapt and act on:
📌 New markets to add
📌 Old markets to rid of
📌 Strategy tweaks to improve your win rate
📌 System considerations to boost winners and cut losses
Flexibility within your trading strategy is key.
🌊 Flow with Momentum
Ever noticed how surfers ride waves?
They don’t fight the ocean; they flow with it.
Traders should do the same with market momentum.
📈 When the market is going up – Go up with it.
📉 When the market is going down – Go down with it. (I mean short and sell, of course!)
➡️ When the market is moving sideways – Observe, report, and wait for better conditions.
Align your trades with the sentiment.
Going against the current market mood can be disastrous.
❌ Never Predict
Everything you see in the charts and fundamentals is based on past data.
So, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to predict with certainty where a market will go.
This is why you need risk management rules and stop losses with EVERY trade.
You can’t predict, BUT you can probability predict.
And that’s the difference between knowing and potential.
🎯 Recap: Trade Smart!
📌 Never Force a Trend: Be patient and wait for the right market conditions.
📌 Patience Pays Off: Let the market cycle play out before jumping in.
📌 Adjust and Act: Regularly review and tweak your strategy with new information.
📌 Flow with Momentum: Align your trades with the current market sentiment.
📌 Never Predict: React to market conditions rather than trying to predict them.
💡 Remember: The best traders ride the waves – not fight them.
How to Spot a Reversal Before It Happens (Before Your SL Hits)You know the feeling. You’re confidently riding a winning trend, high on the euphoria of green candles, when—BAM—the market flips faster than a politician in an election year. Your once-perfect trade is now a humiliating red mess, and your stop loss is the only thing standing between you and financial pain.
But what if you could see that reversal coming before it smacks you in the face? What if, instead of watching your profits evaporate, you could exit like a pro—or better yet, flip your position and ride the reversal in the other direction?
Reversals don’t happen out of thin air. The signs are always there—you just have to know where to look. In this idea, we break down how to spot reversals before they happen.
😉 Price Action: The Market’s Way of Dropping Hints
Markets don’t just change direction because they feel like it. Reversals happen when sentiment shifts—when buyers and sellers agree, sometimes all at once, that the current trend has run its course.
The first clue? Price action itself.
Look for hesitation. A strong uptrend should be making higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend should be carving out lower lows and lower highs. But what happens when that rhythm starts breaking?
A higher high forms, but the next low dips below the previous one? Warning sign.
Price approaches a key resistance level, but momentum stalls, and candles start looking indecisive? Caution flag.
A massive engulfing candle wipes out the last three sessions? Somebody just hit the eject button.
Before markets reverse, they throw up some red flags first—and depending on your time frame, these red flags can give you a heads up so you can prepare for what’s coming.
🔑 Divergence: When Your Indicators Are Screaming "Lies!"
Indicators might be lagging, but they’re not useless—especially when they start disagreeing with price.
This is where divergence comes in. If the price is making new highs, but your favorite momentum indicator (RSI, MACD, Stochastic—you name it) isn’t? That’s a major warning sign.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes a higher high, but RSI or MACD makes a lower high. Translation? The momentum behind the move is fizzling out.
Bullish Divergence: Price makes a lower low, but RSI or MACD makes a higher low. Translation? Sellers are losing their grip, and a bounce might be coming.
Divergences don’t mean immediate reversals, but they do suggest that something’s off. And when the market starts whispering, it’s best to listen before it starts shouting.
📍 Volume: Who’s Actually Driving the Move?
A trend without volume is like a car running on fumes—it’s only a matter of time before it stalls.
One of the clearest signs of a potential reversal is a divergence between price and volume.
If price is pushing higher, but volume is drying up? Buyers are getting exhausted.
If price is tanking, but selling volume isn’t increasing? The bears might be running out of steam.
If a major support or resistance level gets tested with huge volume and a violent rejection? That’s not a coincidence—it’s a battle, and one side is losing.
Reversals tend to be violent because traders are caught off guard. Watching the volume can help you avoid being one of them.
📊 Key Levels: Where the Market Loves to Reverse
Price doesn’t move in a vacuum. There are levels where reversals love to happen.
Support and Resistance: The most obvious, yet most ignored. When price approaches a level that’s been historically respected, pay attention.
Fibonacci Retracements: Markets are weirdly obsessed with 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels. If a trend starts stalling near these zones, don’t ignore it.
Psychological Numbers: Round numbers (like 1.2000 in Forex , $500 in stocks , or $120,000 in Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD act like magnets. The more traders fixate on them, the more likely they become reversal points.
Smart money isn’t chasing prices randomly. They’re watching these levels—and if you’re not, you might consider doing it.
🚨 Candlestick Warnings: When the Market Paints a Picture
Candlesticks aren’t just pretty chart elements that give you a sense of thrill—they tell stories. Some of them hint at “reversal.”
Doji: The ultimate indecision candle. If one pops up after a strong trend, the market is questioning itself.
Engulfing Candles: A single candle that completely erases the previous one? That’s power shifting sides.
Pin Bars (Hammer/Inverted Hammer, Shooting Star): Long wicks show rejection. When they appear at key levels, reversals often follow.
Candlestick patterns alone aren’t enough, but when they show up alongside other reversal signals, they’re hard to ignore.
📰 The News Factor: When Fundamentals Crash the Party
Technical traders like to pretend breaking news doesn’t matter—until it does.
Earnings reports , economic data , interest rate decisions ECONOMICS:USINTR —these events can turn a strong trend into a dumpster fire instantly.
A stock making all-time highs right before earnings? Tread carefully.
A currency pair trending up before an inflation report? One bad number, and it’s lights out.
A crypto rally before a major regulation announcement? That could end badly.
Reversals don’t always come from charts alone. Sometimes, they come from the real world. And the market rarely gives second chances.
✨ The Reversal Cheat Sheet: When Everything Aligns
A single signal doesn’t guarantee a reversal. But when multiple factors line up? That’s when you need to take action.
If you see:
✅ Divergence on indicators
✅ Volume drying up or spiking at a key level
✅ A major support/resistance level getting tested
✅ Reversal candlestick patterns forming
✅ News lurking in the background
Then congratulations—you’ve likely spotted a reversal before your stop loss takes the hit.
✍ Conclusion: Stay Ahead, Not Behind
Catching reversals before they happen isn’t magic—it’s just about knowing where to look. Price action, volume, key levels, indicators, and even the news all leave clues. The problem? Most traders only see them after their account takes the hit.
Don’t be most traders. Pay attention, recognize the signs, and act before the market flips the script on you.
Because the best time to spot a reversal? Before it happens.
Do you use any of these strategies to spot reversals in your trading? What’s the last time you did it and what were you trading—forex, crypto, stocks or something else? Let us know in the comments!
Avoid Market Maker Traps: Liquidity Sweeps & FVG ExplainedUnderstanding Market Maker's Perspective: Liquidity Sweeps and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
In this educational post, I'll dive into the smart money concepts (SMC) that help traders understand market behavior from a broker or market maker's perspective. This analysis will focus on liquidity sweeps, Fair Value Gaps (FVG), and how market makers use these strategies to manipulate price movements.
What is a Liquidity Sweep?
A liquidity sweep occurs when the market pushes through a known level of liquidity, such as stop losses or pending orders. This action often creates sharp wicks or sudden moves, typically engineered by smart money to gather liquidity for their positions.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Explained
An FVG is a price gap between a consecutive bullish and bearish candle (or vice versa), leaving a void in the market. These gaps often act as magnets for price, as market makers seek to "fill" these gaps, using them as traps for retail traders.
The Retail Trader's Perspective
Many new traders view the FVG as a signal to enter the market, expecting price to move in their favor immediately. They often set stop losses below recent lows, providing market makers with a clear liquidity target.
How Market Makers Exploit Liquidity
Market makers often execute a classic trap strategy:
Push the price up slightly to create a false sense of security for retail buyers.
Execute a sharp move down to trigger stop losses and capture liquidity below key levels.
Finally, reverse the price direction sharply to the upside, aligning with their true market intent.
Practical Trading Strategy
For new traders, understanding this concept can help avoid common traps:
Avoid entering trades at the FVG without confirmation.
Look for signs of a liquidity sweep, such as long wicks or strong rejections.
Enter trades only after seeing a market structure shift (MSS) that confirms the true direction.
Conclusion
By thinking like a market maker, traders can align their strategies with smart money concepts, improving their chances of success. Always remain patient, seek confirmation, and avoid the traps set by market manipulation.
This post aims to educate traders on avoiding common pitfalls and developing a more strategic approach to trading using smart money concepts.
What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It?What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It?
Market capitulation occurs when investors collectively surrender to market fears, leading to a sharp decline in asset prices. This article delves into the mechanics of capitulation, how to identify it, and ways to trade effectively during these tumultuous times.
Understanding Market Capitulation
Market capitulation refers to a phenomenon where a large number of investors simultaneously give up on the market, leading to a rapid and substantial decline in asset prices. This mass surrender is driven primarily by panic and fear of further losses. Capitulation often marks the peak of a bearish trend and is typically characterised by a significant spike in trading volumes and sharp price declines.
Stock capitulation occurs when investors, overwhelmed by fear and uncertainty, rush to sell their assets to avoid further losses. This behaviour is often triggered by prolonged market downturns or significant economic events. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the S&P 500 experienced a nearly 5% drop in a single day, a classic example of market capitulation. This event led to a subsequent 17% rebound in the index over the following week, highlighting how capitulation can precede a market turnaround.
Psychologically, capitulation represents the point where investor sentiment shifts from hope to despair. The collective mindset of "cutting losses" leads to a cascade of selling pressure, pushing prices to extreme lows. The intensity of selling can be so severe that it wipes out significant market value in a very short period.
While capitulation can be daunting, it also presents opportunities. For contrarian investors and traders, these periods of panic selling can offer attractive entry points. As prices plummet, fundamentally strong assets may become undervalued, providing a chance to buy at lower prices. However, caution is essential as markets can remain volatile, and further declines are possible before a sustained recovery takes hold.
Identifying Market Capitulation
Identifying market capitulation involves recognising several key indicators that signify a dramatic surge in selling pressure and a sharp decline in asset prices. Here are the most notable indications to look for:
Steep Price Decline
Capitulation is typically associated with a rapid and substantial drop in asset prices. This sharp decline occurs as panic selling accelerates, pushing prices down swiftly, often with large candles and minimal wicks.
High Trading Volume
During capitulation, there is often a significant spike in trading volume as investors rush to sell their holdings. This increase in volume is a key signal that a large number of market participants are exiting their positions simultaneously.
Extreme Bearish Sentiment
Market sentiment during capitulation is overwhelmingly negative. News and investor sentiment indicators turn highly pessimistic, contributing to the panic and further driving down prices.
Technical Indicators
Various technical analysis tools can help identify capitulation:
- Volume Oscillator and On-Balance Volume (OBV): These indicators track changes in volume and can signal when selling pressure is peaking. A sharp decrease in these indicators often accompanies capitulation.
- Candlestick Patterns: Patterns like the hammer candlestick, which shows a recovery from intraday lows, and other patterns like the three white soldiers, can indicate that the market may have reached a bottom. The presence of such patterns, especially when accompanied by high volume, suggests a potential reversal.
- Bollinger Bands: These bands plot 2 standard deviations above and below a moving average. During capitulation, prices often touch or fall below the lower band, which indicates extreme selling conditions and potential oversold levels. This is especially true if the price falls beyond 3 standard deviations.
- Average True Range (ATR): The ATR is an indicator that’s used to measure market volatility. A sudden, sharp increase in ATR during a downtrend can signal capitulation as it reflects the heightened panic and large price movements typical of such periods.
Exhaustion of Selling
Capitulation often marks the point where selling pressure exhausts. This occurs when most investors who intend to sell have done so, leaving fewer sellers in the market. This depletion of sellers can indicate that a bottom is near and that a reversal may be imminent.
The Impact of Market Capitulation on Markets
Market capitulation has significant effects on financial markets, influencing both short-term and long-term trends.
Short-Term Impact
Immediately following capitulation, markets often experience extreme volatility and uncertainty. The intense selling pressure often drives asset prices sharply lower, causing values to drop significantly below their intrinsic worth.
This phase is characterised by wild price swings as the market seeks a new equilibrium. The pervasive negative sentiment and widespread fear can further exacerbate the situation; across a broader downward move, there can be multiple points of capitulation with high volatility surrounding these additional selloffs.
Long-Term Implications
Over the long term, capitulation often marks the bottom of a market downturn. As the selling pressure diminishes and fewer investors remain to sell, the market begins to stabilise. This stabilisation allows new investors to enter the market, often leading to a gradual recovery in asset prices.
However, it is essential to recognise that not every capitulation results in an immediate market reversal. Some markets may continue to decline or consolidate before a sustained recovery takes hold, with these new investors falling prey to the same fear-driven trading as another potential capitulation occurs.
Psychological and Sentimental Effects
Capitulation also has a lasting impact on investor sentiment. The severe downturn and associated losses can create a long-term negative perception of the affected assets, causing investors to remain cautious even after the market begins to recover. This psychological impact can lead to reduced trading volumes and prolonged periods of low investor confidence.
How to Trade Around a Market Capitulation Event
Trading around a market capitulation event can be challenging due to the difficulty in accurately identifying capitulation in real-time. Capitulation often becomes clear only in hindsight, which complicates the process of trading or anticipating it effectively.
Avoiding the Falling Knife
After identifying potential capitulation—characterised by a sharp price drop, likely on increased volume, and backed by extreme bearish sentiment—,it's typically unwise to try and buy during the initial plunge. The sharp decline often leads to further drops, even if they are less severe. Trying to "catch the falling knife" can potentially result in further losses as prices continue to fall.
Taking a Short Position During a Dead Cat Bounce
One of traders’ approaches is to take a short position during a "dead cat bounce" or brief pullback before another downward leg. However, this strategy carries a less favourable risk/reward ratio because it involves selling low with the intention of selling lower. This might be effective but requires precise timing and strong risk management.
Waiting for Stability
The most prudent strategy is often to wait until market volatility subsides and a bottom appears to form. Signs of a market bottom include the price overcoming a previous swing high or breaking through a prior level of resistance. This indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, offering the trader an opportunity to buy low and sell high with a much more favourable risk-reward profile.
Using Confluence in Analysis
Combining different forms of analysis can provide greater confidence in identifying a market bottom. For example, if prices fall to a key support level or the decline seems disproportionately sharp compared to fundamentals, it might indicate an oversold condition. Momentum indicators and moving averages can also help confirm potential reversal points.
Risk Management
Strong risk management practices are crucial. Limiting position sizes and always adhering to a stop loss can potentially prevent severe losses if the market experiences another leg down. This means that traders can potentially protect themselves against unexpected volatility and further declines.
Common Mistakes Traders Make During Market Capitulation
Navigating market capitulation is challenging due to the extreme volatility and widespread panic that characterise these events. Here are some specific mistakes that traders frequently make during market capitulation:
Panic Selling
One of the most common mistakes is succumbing to panic and selling off assets hastily. During capitulation, the market is driven by extreme fear, and many traders sell to avoid further losses. This emotional response can lead to selling at the lowest point, locking in significant losses and missing out on potential rebounds once the market stabilises.
Holding onto Losing Positions
Traders often make the mistake of holding onto a losing position, hoping for a reversal. When a trader holds a long position and witnesses market capitulation, the instinct might be to wait for the market to recover. However, this can lead to further losses as the asset's value continues to decline. Instead of cutting losses early, some traders let the losses accumulate, which can deplete their capital and limit future trading opportunities.
This contradicts the previous point, and you may be confused about whether you sell or hold onto the trade. In any case, you will face a decision to either sell or hold on to their position if the capitulation is severe and protracted. It will always depend on the context and fundamental reason behind the capitulation, it’s worth noting that stocks generally recover over time.
Trying to Time the Bottom
Attempting to time the market bottom during capitulation is exceedingly difficult and can easily lead to additional losses. Capitulation typically involves sharp price declines and increased volatility, making it challenging to determine the exact bottom. Traders who try to catch the falling knife may find themselves buying into a market that continues to drop.
Overexposing Positions
Another mistake is overexposing oneself to high-risk positions during periods of extreme market volatility. Instead of taking bolder positions, traders are best served to limit their exposure with smaller positions, stop losses, a diversified portfolio, and more judicious entries. It's essential to maintain a balanced approach and avoid putting too much capital into volatile trades.
The Bottom Line
Understanding and navigating market capitulation can be challenging but offers potential opportunities for informed traders. By recognising key indicators and avoiding common mistakes, traders can better manage their strategies during these volatile periods. For a robust trading experience, consider opening an account with FXOpen to leverage these insights and trade with a broker you can trust.
FAQs
What Is Capitulation in the Stock Market?
The capitulation meaning in the stock market refers to the moment when investors and traders, overwhelmed by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in stock prices, decide to sell their holdings at any price to stop further losses. This mass selling leads to a sharp and rapid drop in stock prices. The term is derived from the military concept of surrender, indicating that investors are giving up on their positions.
Is Capitulation Bullish or Bearish?
Capitulation is both bullish and bearish. It is bearish during the actual event, as it involves widespread panic selling and a significant drop in stock prices. However, it can be bullish afterward, as it often marks the end of a severe downtrend and the beginning of a recovery or rally. This is because the selling pressure is exhausted, and buyers start to step in, finding attractive entry points.
How Does Capitulation Work?
Capitulation works through a cycle of fear and panic. Initially, as prices decline, some investors start selling to cut their losses. This selling pressure causes prices to drop further, leading more investors to panic and sell their holdings. This cycle continues until the majority of investors have sold their positions, leading to a sharp decline in prices. Eventually, the market stabilises as the selling pressure diminishes, often followed by a recovery.
What Are Signs of Capitulation?
Signs of capitulation include a sharp decline in prices, high trading volumes, extreme bearish sentiment, and market exhaustion, where selling pressure diminishes, stabilising the market.
What Is Capitulation in Crypto*?
Capitulation in the cryptocurrency market* follows a similar pattern to that in the stock market. It occurs when crypto* investors, driven by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in prices, sell their holdings en masse, leading to a sharp drop in prices. This can be triggered by negative news, regulatory actions, or broader market downturns.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Support & Resistance in Trading – Key Concepts & StrategiesSupport & Resistance in Trading – Key Concepts & Strategies
📌 What are Support & Resistance Levels?
Support and resistance are fundamental concepts in **technical analysis** that help traders identify key price levels where an asset's price is likely to **reverse, consolidate, or break through.
- **Support Level:** A price point where demand is strong enough to prevent further decline. When the price reaches support, buyers tend to step in, causing a bounce.
- **Resistance Level:** A price point where selling pressure is strong enough to prevent further rise. When the price reaches resistance, sellers often push the price lower.
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**🔹 Why Are Support & Resistance Important?**
1️⃣ **Identifying Reversal Points:** These levels help traders anticipate where price might change direction.
2️⃣ **Entry & Exit Strategy:** Traders use them to plan buy/sell positions, stop-loss, and take-profit levels.
3️⃣ **Breakouts & Fakeouts:** If price breaks through a key level, it signals a strong trend; however, false breakouts (fakeouts) can also occur.
4️⃣ **Psychological Impact:** Many traders watch these levels, making them **self-fulfilling price zones**.
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**📊 How to Identify Support & Resistance?**
- **Historical Price Action:** Look for levels where price previously reversed multiple times.
- **Trendlines:** Draw diagonal trendlines connecting higher lows (for support) or lower highs (for resistance).
- **Moving Averages (e.g., EMA50, EMA200):** Act as dynamic support/resistance.
- **Fibonacci Levels:** Key retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) often act as support/resistance.
- **Volume Analysis:** High volume near certain price levels indicates strong buying/selling pressure.
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**🔹 Trading Strategies Using Support & Resistance**
**1️⃣ Range Trading Strategy**
✅ **Buy near support** and **sell near resistance** when the market is moving sideways.
✅ Stop-loss: Below support for buy trades, above resistance for sell trades.
✅ Best used in **range-bound markets** (no strong trend).
**2️⃣ Breakout Trading Strategy**
✅ Enter a trade when price **breaks through a strong support or resistance** level.
✅ Confirm the breakout with **high volume** to avoid fakeouts.
✅ Stop-loss: Below the breakout level (for buy) or above (for sell).
**3️⃣ Retest Trading Strategy (Break & Retest)**
✅ After a breakout, wait for price to **retest the previous support/resistance** before entering.
✅ Provides a better entry with lower risk.
✅ Stop-loss: Below the retested level (for buy) or above (for sell).
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**📌 Common Mistakes Traders Make**
❌ **Buying too close to resistance** or **selling too close to support** – wait for confirmation.
❌ **Ignoring fakeouts** – always check volume & price action before entering a breakout trade.
❌ **Not using stop-losses** – markets can be unpredictable, and risk management is key.
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**📈 Example in Real Market (Gold – XAU/USD Analysis)**
- **Support:** $2,900
- **Resistance:** $2,950
- **Scenario 1 (Bullish Breakout):** If price **breaks above $2,950**, it could rally to $3,000.
- **Scenario 2 (Bearish Rejection):** If price **fails to break $2,950 and drops below $2,900**, a pullback to $2,870 is possible.
---
**🔹 Final Thoughts**
Mastering support & resistance is essential for **both beginners and advanced traders**. By combining these levels with other indicators (EMA, RSI, volume), you can improve your trade accuracy and risk management.
Ultimate Guide to Technical Indicators📌 Introduction:
In the world of trading, correctly interpreting price movements is essential for making informed decisions. Technical indicators are key tools that help analyze trends, momentum, volume, volatility, and other aspects of market behavior. This guide explores a wide range of indicators—from traditional ones to those that combine advanced techniques—so you can design robust analysis strategies tailored to your style.
📈 1. Trend Indicators
These indicators measure the direction and strength of a trend (bullish, bearish, or sideways), allowing traders to identify potential entry and exit points.
• Moving Averages (SMA/EMA): Smooth price action to identify trends (e.g., moving average crossovers).
• ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures trend strength (>25 indicates a strong trend).
• Ichimoku Cloud: Defines support, resistance, and momentum through a “cloud” formation.
• SuperTrend: Highlights reversals with a line that follows volatility.
• Envelopes: Bands around a moving average to detect overbought/oversold conditions.
• Parabolic SAR: Generates dots that indicate possible trend reversals, useful in trending markets.
• Alligator (Bill Williams): Uses multiple moving averages to identify emerging trends.
• Donchian Channels: Detects breakouts with bands based on historical highs and lows.
• Vortex Indicator: Uses two lines to confirm trend direction.
• ZigZag: Filters market “noise” to highlight significant movements.
💡 Tip: Donchian Channels can also be used to analyze volatility expansion.
⚡ 2. Momentum Indicators
These measure the speed and strength of price movements, helping confirm trend validity and detect reversals.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) conditions.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Signals momentum shifts through line crossovers and divergences.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Compares closing price with the recent range to signal reversals.
• CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Detects extreme levels, especially in cyclical assets.
• TRIX: A triple-smoothed moving average oscillator that filters out minor trends.
• Williams %R: Similar to Stochastic but inverted (-20 indicates overbought, -80 oversold).
• Momentum Oscillator: Measures the rate of price change over a set period.
• Awesome Oscillator (AO): Compares short- and long-term moving averages to detect momentum changes.
• Chaikin Oscillator: Integrates volume and price to evaluate accumulation or distribution.
• Rate of Change (ROC): Calculates the percentage price change over a past period.
🎯 Tip: Momentum indicators are often combined with trend indicators to validate moves and reinforce signals.
📊 3. Volume Indicators
Volume is crucial for confirming trend validity and movement strength.
• OBV (On-Balance Volume): Links volume to price changes to confirm trends.
• Volume Profile: Displays price levels with the highest volume concentration.
• MFI (Money Flow Index): Combines price and volume, similar to RSI.
• Accumulation/Distribution Line: Evaluates money flow using closing price and daily range.
• VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): A volume-weighted moving average used by institutional traders.
• Chaikin Money Flow: Integrates volume and price to measure buying/selling pressure.
• Ease of Movement (EOM): Shows how easily price moves relative to volume.
• Volume Oscillator: Measures the difference between two volume moving averages.
• Herrick Payoff Index (HPI): Incorporates volume, price, and open interest (common in futures).
• Volume Rate of Change: Measures the speed of volume changes over time.
🔥 4. Volatility Indicators
These measure price dispersion, helping define risk and market activity levels.
• Bollinger Bands: Expand/contract around a moving average based on volatility.
• ATR (Average True Range): Measures the average price range over a period.
• Keltner Channels: Similar to Bollinger Bands but uses ATR to set bands.
• Standard Deviation: Quantifies price dispersion from its average.
• VIX (Volatility Index): Measures expected volatility in the S&P 500.
• Choppiness Index: Determines if the market is trending or ranging (high values indicate range-bound conditions).
• Donchian Channels (Volatility): Identifies price extremes to measure expansion.
• GARCH Models: Statistical models for predicting future volatility.
• Chaikin Volatility: Measures volatility using high-low price ranges.
• Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA): Adjusts smoothing based on market volatility.
🏛 5. Support & Resistance Indicators
These help identify key levels where price may pause or reverse.
• Pivot Points: Daily levels based on previous highs, lows, and closes.
• Fibonacci Retracements: Identify potential reversal zones (e.g., 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%).
• Volume Profile: Helps spot natural support/resistance levels.
• Moving Averages: Act as dynamic support/resistance over time.
• Price Action (Highs/Lows): Psychological levels based on past price action.
• Market Profile: Shows volume distribution across price and time levels.
• Camarilla Pivots: A more detailed pivot system for intraday trading.
• Anchored VWAP: VWAP calculated from a specific starting point, like trend beginnings.
• Demark Sequential: Identifies potential reversals through candle counts.
• Murrey Math Lines: Sets support/resistance levels based on mathematical scales.
🔍 Tip: Visual examples can help illustrate how these key zones form.
🔄 6. Cycle & Pattern Indicators
Analyze seasonal repetitions or chart patterns that can anticipate future moves.
• Elliott Wave Theory: Identifies cycles of 5 impulsive and 3 corrective waves.
• Harmonic Patterns (Gartley, Butterfly): Geometric formations based on Fibonacci ratios.
• Head & Shoulders: A classic reversal pattern signaling trend change.
• Cup & Handle: A bullish continuation pattern.
• Wolfe Waves: Uses price waves and channels to spot reversals.
• Hurst Cycles: A model based on recurring time cycles.
• Dow Theory: Classifies trends into primary, secondary, and minor.
• Japanese Candlestick Patterns (Doji, Engulfing): Visual signals of reversal or continuation.
• Cycle Analytics: Includes tools like Tom DeMark’s Cycle Indicator.
📊 7. Statistical & Quantitative Indicators
Use mathematical models and algorithms for predictive analysis and risk management.
• Linear Regression: Fits a trend line to price data.
• Z-Score: Measures how far price is from its mean in standard deviations.
• Monte Carlo Simulations: Simulates probabilities of future scenarios.
• Machine Learning (Neural Networks): Uses AI algorithms to predict prices.
• Asset Correlation: Measures relationships between assets (e.g., oil & USD/CAD).
• Sharpe Ratio: Evaluates risk-adjusted returns.
• Value at Risk (VaR): Estimates potential maximum loss over a timeframe.
• Cointegration: Detects long-term relationships between asset pairs.
• ARIMA (Time Series Models): Forecasts future movements using historical data.
• Kalman Filter: Optimizes real-time market estimates.
📢 8. Market Sentiment Indicators
Measure trader emotions and market positioning, such as greed, fear, optimism, or pessimism.
• Fear & Greed Index: Combines multiple factors (volatility, volume, surveys) to gauge extreme emotions.
• Put/Call Ratio: Compares put vs. call options to assess bearish/bullish expectations.
• Commitments of Traders (COT): Weekly report showing institutional positions in futures.
• Short Interest: Percentage of shares sold short, indicating bearish sentiment.
• AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: Weekly retail investor market outlook.
• Social Media Sentiment (Stocktwits, Twitter): NLP-based analysis of online market opinions.
📊 9. Custom/Hybrid Indicators
These indicators are developed by traders or platforms to fit specific strategies, combining different techniques and data.
• ✅ Volume-Weighted MACD: Integrates the MACD with volume data to filter signals.
📈 RSI with Bollinger Bands: Merges overbought/oversold analysis with volatility measurement.
🔗 Ichimoku + Fibonacci: Combines Ichimoku's dynamic support/resistance with Fibonacci retracements.
📉 SuperTrend with ATR: Adjusts SuperTrend sensitivity using the Average True Range.
🤖 Machine Learning Oscillators: AI-trained indicators (e.g., LSTM-based predictors) to anticipate movements.
📍 Custom Pivot Points: Tailored pivot points based on assets or specific timeframes.
📊 Market Profile + Volume Profile: Merges price-time distribution with volume analysis.
⚖ Synthetic Indicators: Mixes data from multiple assets (e.g., gold/oil ratio) to generate signals.
📆 Seasonality Indicators: Based on historical seasonal patterns (like the “January Rally” effect).
🚀 Hull Moving Average (HMA): Optimized moving average to reduce lag and noise.
• 💡 Tip: Experiment and tweak these indicators to fit your personal trading style.
📉 10. Derivatives Market Indicators
These indicators are designed for complex instruments like futures and options, allowing a deeper market analysis.
• 📊 Open Interest: Number of open contracts in futures or options, indicating trend strength.
⚖ Delta Hedging Ratio: Measures the balance between call and put options.
🔄 Gamma Exposure (GEX): Assesses the impact of market makers on price through gamma hedging.
🌪 Implied Volatility (IV): Expected volatility derived from option prices (e.g., IV Rank).
📊 Skew Index: Measures volatility differences between out-of-the-money options, identifying bullish or bearish trends.
📈 Contango/Backwardation: In futures markets, shows whether prices are overvalued or undervalued relative to the spot market.
💵 Volume Delta: Real-time difference between buying and selling volume.
🔥 Liquidation Heatmaps: In crypto, highlight areas where large margin liquidations occur.
🎭 Options Pain (Max Pain Theory): Indicates the price where option sellers maximize profits.
📊 PCR (Put/Call Ratio) for Options: Similar to the Put/Call Ratio but focused on specific option volume.
🌍 11. Macro-Technical Indicators
These indicators integrate technical analysis with macroeconomic factors, providing a broader market perspective.
⚖ Gold/Oil Ratio: Reflects geopolitical risk or inflationary pressures.
⚠ Yield Curve Inversion: Happens when short-term bonds yield more than long-term ones, considered a recession signal.
💲 Dollar Index (DXY) + Commodities: Shows the inverse correlation between the dollar and commodities.
🔗 Bitcoin Dominance: Represents Bitcoin’s market cap percentage relative to the total crypto market.
🚢 Baltic Dry Index: Measures shipping costs, acting as an indicator of global economic activity.
🛢 Copper/Gold Ratio: Relates copper (growth indicator) with gold (safe-haven asset) to predict economic cycles.
📈 Equity Risk Premium: Difference between stock and bond returns, useful for measuring risk appetite.
⚡ TED Spread: Difference between interbank lending rates and Treasury bonds, indicating financial stress.
📊 VIX vs. S&P 500: Links market volatility with index trends.
📉 Inflation Breakeven Rates: Calculates inflation expectations from the difference between TIPS and nominal bonds.
📝 Note: These indicators are especially valuable for contextualizing technical analysis within the global economic landscape.
📈 12. Price Action Indicators
These indicators rely on direct price movement analysis, avoiding complex mathematical formulas.
🔹 Horizontal Support & Resistance: Key zones manually drawn based on historical price action.
🕯 Japanese Candlesticks: Patterns (Doji, Hammer, Engulfing, etc.) indicating possible reversals or continuations.
📊 Price Channels: Parallel trendlines framing price movement.
🚀 Breakout/False Breakout: Breaks of key levels that may confirm or turn into traps.
📏 Inside/Outside Bars: Candles that remain within or exceed the range of the previous candle.
📡 Order Flow Analysis: Real-time tracking of buy and sell orders.
🔄 Market Structure: Observing higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows to identify trends.
📊 Volume-by-Price: Side histogram displaying accumulated volume at different price levels.
📏 Wick Analysis: Examining candle wicks to detect rejections at certain levels.
🎯 Open/Close Levels: Using previous open and close prices as psychological references.
💡 Tip: Combining price action with other indicators can provide a more complete and precise market view.
🏆 Conclusion
Integrating diverse technical indicators allows for a multifaceted market analysis. Each category—from trends, momentum, and volume to macroeconomic analysis and price action—offers valuable insights that, when combined, strengthen decision-making.
🚀 Key Takeaway: No single indicator is infallible! The real power lies in the synergy of multiple tools and strong risk management. Experiment, fine-tune, and adapt these indicators to your trading style and goals to build an effective and personalized strategy.
TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 2👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training
We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis.
🎨 What is Technical Analysis?
Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities.
🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important?
Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits:
Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume.
Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points.
Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate.
📚 Recap of the Previous Session
In the previous session, we explained the first two principles of Dow Theory. Make sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us in the comments.
📑 Principles of Dow Theory
1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto)
2 - The Market Has Three Trends
3 - Trends Have Three Phases
4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed
5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other
6 - Volume Confirms the Trend
🌟 Principle 3: Trends Have Three Phases
In Dow Theory, the primary trend (which can be a Bull Market or Bear Market) is divided into three distinct phases. These phases reflect market behavior and investor psychology over time. Here’s a detailed explanation:
📉 Accumulation Phase
Definition: This phase begins when the market is at its lowest point (in a bull trend after a bear market) or when general pessimism prevails. Smart investors, professionals, and those with a long-term vision (like large funds or experienced traders) start buying.
Characteristics:
Prices are still low, and economic news is typically negative (e.g., recession, high unemployment).
Trading volume is low because the general public lacks confidence and doesn’t participate.
Price changes are small and gradual, making the market seem "lifeless" or directionless.
Psychology: This phase marks a transition from despair to hope. Smart investors recognize that the worst is over and that the real value of assets exceeds their current price.
Example: Imagine after a major crash like 2008, some big companies stabilize their prices, but the media still talks about "collapse." Professionals step in here. Or with Bitcoin at $16K, most people thought it was heading to zero and were hopeless!
📈 Public Participation Phase
Definition: This phase occurs when the primary trend is clearly established, and the market starts moving more strongly. Economic news improves, and the general public (retail investors) enters the market.
Characteristics:
Prices rise quickly (in a bull market) or fall sharply (in a bear market).
Trading volume increases significantly as participation grows.
Analysts and media begin confirming the trend with positive reports.
Psychology: Confidence in the market grows, and greed (in a bull market) or fear (in a bear market) gradually takes over. This is where market momentum accelerates.
Example: In a bull market, you might see indices like the Dow Jones hitting new records weekly, with ordinary people buying tech or industrial stocks.
💰 Distribution Phase
Definition: This is the end of the primary trend. In a bull market, smart investors who bought during accumulation start selling to take profits. In a bear market, panic selling subsides, and some buy in hopes of a recovery.
Characteristics:
Prices may still be high, but volatility increases, and signs of weakness emerge.
Trading volume might remain high, but discrepancies between volume and price (e.g., price drops with high volume) appear.
News is still positive, but professionals know the market is overvalued.
Psychology: In a bull market, excessive optimism (Euphoria) dominates; in a bear market, complete despair sets in. This is where the trend reverses.
Example: At the peak of the dot-com bubble (2000), tech stocks kept rising, but professionals began exiting, and then the crash followed.
Key Note: These three phases occur in sequence, and understanding them helps analysts identify the market’s position in the larger cycle. In a bear market, the phases reverse: panic selling (like distribution), temporary recovery (like participation), and final capitulation (like accumulation).
🔍 Principle 4: The Averages Must Confirm Each Other
Charles Dow believed that for a primary trend to be confirmed, two key market indices—the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)—must move in the same direction. This principle stems from economic and logical significance in Dow’s time and is still considered a key metric. Here’s the full explanation:
📊 Economic Logic:
Industry and Transportation: In Dow’s era (late 19th and early 20th centuries), the U.S. economy relied heavily on industrial production and transportation (e.g., railroads). If industrial companies (producers of goods) were growing, demand for transportation (moving goods) should also rise.
Thus, aligned movement in these indices signaled a healthy economy.
Mutual Confirmation: If only one average rises (e.g., industrials go up but transportation doesn’t), Dow saw it as a sign of weakness or an unsustainable trend.
🤑 Practical Application:
Bullish Trend: In a bull market, both averages should reach new highs (Higher Highs). If the DJIA hits a new record but the DJTA fails to confirm and stays lower, the uptrend is questionable.
Bearish Trend: In a bear market, both should hit new lows (Lower Lows). Lack of confirmation (e.g., industrials fall but transportation doesn’t) might signal the end of the downtrend.
Divergence: If the averages diverge (one rises while the other doesn’t), Dow viewed it as a warning of a potential trend change.
⚖️ Technical Details:
Timing: Confirmation doesn’t need to be simultaneous but should occur within a reasonable timeframe (e.g., weeks or months).
Volume: Though not directly mentioned in this principle, handbooks emphasize that high volume during confirmation adds credibility to the trend.
Classic Example: In 1929, the industrial average began falling, but transportation initially resisted. When transportation also dropped, the bearish trend was confirmed, leading to the Great Depression.
🎉 Conclusion
We’ve reached the end of today’s educational segment! We’ll start by explaining all of Dow Theory’s principles, and in the future, we’ll move on to chart analysis and the strategy I personally use for trading with Dow Theory. So, make sure you fully grasp these concepts first so we can progress together in this learning journey!
💡 Final Thoughts for Today
This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis.
⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Why ATR Stops Work (And When They Don’t)Ask ten traders where to place a stop-loss, and you’ll get ten different answers. Some swear by fixed-point stops, others use percentage-based levels, and then there are those who simply ‘feel’ where the market might turn. But traders looking for a more structured approach often turn to the Average True Range (ATR) —a volatility-based indicator that adapts to market conditions.
ATR stops can be a great tool for trade management, but they’re not perfect. Let’s break down when they work—and when they don’t.
Why Use ATR for Stop-Loss Placement?
ATR measures the average volatility of a market over a set period, usually 14 days. Instead of setting a static stop-loss, traders use a multiple of the ATR to position their exit level. The logic is simple: a more volatile market needs a wider stop, while a quiet market can afford a tighter one.
For example, if the ATR on GBP/USD is 50 pips and you’re using a 2x ATR stop, your stop-loss would be 100 pips away from your entry. In contrast, if volatility drops and ATR shrinks to 30 pips, your stop would adjust to 60 pips.
This approach helps traders avoid getting stopped out by normal market noise while still maintaining a structured risk framework.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
When ATR Stops Work Well
Adapting to Market Conditions
Markets aren’t static. Volatility expands and contracts, and ATR-based stops naturally adjust to these shifts. This makes them particularly useful in trending conditions, where price swings can widen over time.
Avoiding Arbitrary Stop Placement
Instead of guessing where a stop ‘feels right,’ ATR provides an objective framework based on real price movement. This helps remove emotional bias from trade management.
Reducing the Impact of Spikes and Noise
Many traders place stops just below recent lows or above recent highs—prime hunting grounds for liquidity grabs. ATR stops, positioned at a calculated distance, can help avoid these shakeouts.
When ATR Stops Can Fail You
Low Volatility = Tight Stops = Premature Exits
ATR stops rely on recent price action. In quiet markets, ATR contracts, leading to tighter stop placement. This can be problematic when volatility suddenly picks up, as small price swings can take traders out of otherwise good trades.
Doesn’t Consider Market Structure
ATR is purely mathematical—it doesn’t care about support, resistance, or key technical levels. Traders who use ATR stops in isolation may find themselves stopped out just before price respects a critical level.
Choppy Markets Can Whipsaw ATR Stops
In sideways, erratic markets, ATR stops can lead to unnecessary exits. If a market is ranging tightly and ATR is small, stops may be placed too close to entry, leading to multiple stop-outs in quick succession.
One Rule That Can’t Be Broken: Never Widen Your Stop
One of the biggest mistakes traders make—whether using ATR stops or any other method—is moving a stop-loss further away once it’s placed. This usually happens when a trade starts going against them, and instead of accepting the loss, they ‘give it more room to breathe.’
The problem? This completely undermines risk management. A stop-loss should be a pre-determined level that, if hit, signals the trade idea was wrong. Widening it turns a small, manageable loss into a much bigger one—sometimes even wiping out weeks of gains.
If a trade isn’t working and your stop is at risk of being hit, accept it, take the loss, and move on. Adjusting stops should only ever mean tightening them to lock in profits—not loosening them to avoid taking a hit.
How to Improve ATR-Based Stops
ATR stops work best when combined with other trade management techniques:
Use ATR in Conjunction with Market Structure
Rather than blindly placing a stop at 2x ATR, check if your stop aligns with key support or resistance levels. If ATR suggests a stop that sits just below a major level, consider widening it slightly to avoid getting shaken out.
Adjust for Volatility Cycles
If ATR is unusually low due to a period of calm, consider using a longer lookback period (e.g., 21-day ATR) to get a broader view of market volatility.
Pair ATR with a Trailing Stop Strategy
ATR-based trailing stops allow traders to lock in profits as a trend develops while still giving the trade room to breathe. Instead of setting a fixed stop, you can trail a stop at 1.5x ATR below the most recent high in an uptrend.
Final Thoughts
ATR stops provide a structured, volatility-adjusted approach to risk management, helping traders avoid common pitfalls like placing stops too tight in high-volatility markets or too wide in quiet conditions. But like any tool, they’re not foolproof. Used in isolation, ATR can lead to premature exits or misplaced stops.
The best approach? Use ATR as a guideline, not a hard rule. Combine it with market structure, trend analysis, and an understanding of volatility cycles to refine your stop placement. After all, trading is about staying in the game long enough to capitalise on the big moves—without getting chopped up in the noise.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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TOP 5 TRADING SETUPS THAT MAY BE IN THE ARSENAL OF A SKIN TRADERSuccessful trading is not about “guessing the market”, but about clear strategies and discipline. Today I will show you 5 setups that really work and will help you find the entry point with the best risk management.
1️⃣ Breakout & Retest
✅ How I work:
The price breaks through the rhubarb (strong support/support).
Then it turns around, tests this rope and jumps.
🔍 What you need to joke about:
High volume under breakdown (strong impulse).
A clear retest without any deep push back.
Candle pattern confirmation (pin bar, clay, etc.).
📈 De vikoristuvati:
Cryptocurrency
Forex
Stock market
🔸 Example: BTC/USD breaks through $50,000, turns around, tests it as support - and goes up.
🛑 Stop loss: after the breakout (with a small margin).
🎯 Goal: 1:2 or 1:3 for risk management.
2️⃣ False Breakout
✅ How I work:
The price breaks through the rhubarb, but then quickly turns back.
This is a trap for those who “run after the market.”
🔍 What you need to joke about:
Great tail of the candle after breakdown (manipulation).
The volume falls after the breakdown - shows the weakness of the rukh.
Confirming reversal pattern (pin bar, clay).
📈 De vikoristuvati:
Crypt
Forex
NASDAQ, S&P500
🔸 Example: The price of Ethereum breaks through $3,500, but it quickly turns around under this pressure – the witches “took control.”
🛑 Stop loss: beyond the extreme of the fake breakout.
🎯 Purpose: front level of support/support.
3️⃣ Liquidity Grab
✅ How it works:
The price breaks through the level sharply, knocking out stops.
Then returns to the zone and changes direction.
🔍 What to look for:
A strong impulse movement with a sharp pullback.
Knocking out stops (candle tails).
High volume on the return.
📈 Where to use:
Forex
Stock markets
Cryptocurrency
🔸 Example: Before a big drop, BTC makes a sharp jump above $52,000, collects stops of longs - and then falls to $48,000.
🛑 Stop loss: short, following a manipulation move.
🎯 Target: the nearest liquidity zone.
4️⃣ Trendline Bounce
✅ How it works:
Price tests the trendline and bounces.
🔍 What to look for:
Minimum 3 touches of the trendline (it should be strong).
Bounce with confirmation (candlestick patterns, volume).
Previous support or resistance zone.
📈 Where to use:
Any market (crypto, forex, stocks).
🔸 Example: NASDAQ tests the rising trendline, bounces - long entry.
🛑 Stop loss: below the trendline.
🎯 Target: nearest resistance level.
5️⃣ Double Top / Double Bottom
✅ How it works:
The price forms two identical highs (or lows), after which a reversal occurs.
🔍 What to look for:
Symmetrical pattern (two tops/two bottoms).
Reversal signal (bearish or bullish candle).
High volume during the second touch.
📈 Where to use:
Stock market
Forex
Cryptocurrency
🔸 Example: SP500 makes a double peak at 4700 and falls.
🛑 Stop loss: just above the top/bottom.
🎯 Target: 50% or 100% of the figure.
Conclusion:
These setups work in any market if applied correctly! The main thing is not just to see the pattern, but to understand what is behind the price movement.
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Mastering ICT Concepts: The Ultimate Trading Strategy GuideA lot of people are drawn to ICT trading concepts because they offer a deep understanding of how the markets truly work. With this guide, I want to explain the most popular ICT strategies in a simple and detailed way to help traders navigate these concepts effectively. The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology offers a suite of trading strategies that delve into market mechanics, focusing on institutional behaviors and liquidity dynamics. This guide explores five prominent ICT strategies: Fair Value Gaps (FVG), Power of Three (PO3), Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVG) with Liquidity Sweeps, Breaker Blocks, and the Silver Bullet Strategy. Each section provides an in-depth explanation, trading approach, key considerations, and designated spots for illustrative images.
🔍 1. Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) represents a price imbalance created when the market moves rapidly in one direction, leaving a gap between consecutive candlesticks. This gap signals inefficient pricing, which the market tends to revisit later to balance liquidity. Understanding FVGs is crucial as they reveal hidden institutional footprints.
How to Trade:
Identification: Spot an FVG when there is a three-candlestick formation where the second candle creates a gap between the high of the first candle and the low of the third candle.
Retracement Expectation: The market typically seeks to fill these gaps as it rebalances price inefficiencies.
Entry Strategy: Wait for price to return to the gap and enter in the direction of the initial impulse. Confirm the trade with market structure shifts or other confluence factors.
Targets: Use previous highs/lows, liquidity zones, or equilibrium levels (50% of the FVG) as potential targets.
Key Considerations:
Timeframes: Higher timeframes like 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily yield more reliable signals.
Volume Confirmation: High volume during the initial impulse strengthens the likelihood of a retracement.
Partial Fills: The market may not always fill the entire gap.
⚡ 2. Power of Three (PO3)
The Power of Three (PO3) describes how institutional players manipulate price action through three key phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution. This strategy highlights how smart money engineers liquidity and misleads retail traders before delivering the intended price move.
How to Trade:
Accumulation Phase: Identify consolidation zones where price ranges sideways, often before major sessions (London or New York).
Manipulation Phase: Wait for false breakouts or stop hunts where price temporarily breaks out from the range before reversing.
Distribution Phase: Enter the trade in the opposite direction of the manipulation, targeting the liquidity created during the false move.
Entry Confirmation:
Market structure shifts after the manipulation phase.
Bullish or bearish order blocks aligning with the intended direction.
Fair Value Gaps in the distribution phase.
Key Considerations:
Patience: This strategy often requires waiting several hours for all three phases to complete.
Liquidity Zones: Look for equal highs or lows near the range to anticipate the manipulation move.
Time Windows: PO3 often plays out during high-volume sessions.
🔄 3. Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVG) with Liquidity Sweeps
Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVG) are advanced price inefficiencies that act as dynamic support or resistance zones. When price fills a traditional FVG, that zone can later serve as an IFVG—particularly when aligned with liquidity sweeps.
How to Trade:
Identify Original FVG: Locate an FVG that has already been filled.
Liquidity Sweep Trigger: Wait for price to sweep liquidity above or below a key level.
Inversion Zone: When price returns to the previous FVG, treat it as a new support or resistance zone.
Entry Confirmation: Watch for market structure shifts or rejection candles at the IFVG.
Key Considerations:
Confluence Zones: Combine IFVG with liquidity sweeps and order blocks.
Patience: Wait for price action confirmation before entering.
Stop Placement: Place stops below the IFVG in bullish setups or above in bearish setups.
🧱 4. Breaker Blocks
Breaker Blocks are zones where previous support or resistance levels are invalidated by a liquidity sweep, only to become reversal zones. They represent areas where smart money accumulates orders before delivering price in the opposite direction.
How to Trade:
Identify Liquidity Sweeps: Spot areas where price breaks above or below a key high/low before reversing.
Breaker Formation: The candle that invalidates the liquidity sweep forms the Breaker Block.
Entry Strategy: Wait for price to retrace into the Breaker Block and confirm the trade with rejection candles or market structure shifts.
Targets: Previous liquidity pools or opposing order blocks.
Key Considerations:
Higher Timeframes: Use 1-hour or 4-hour charts for the best results.
Volume Analysis: High volume during the breaker formation strengthens the signal.
Risk Management: Place stops beyond the breaker boundary.
🎯 5. Silver Bullet Strategy
The Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based model designed to capitalize on institutional price delivery patterns during specific one-hour windows. This strategy focuses on liquidity sweeps and Fair Value Gaps within these timeframes.
How to Trade:
Time Windows: Target these key one-hour sessions:
London Open: 03:00 AM – 04:00 AM EST
New York AM Session: 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM EST
New York PM Session: 02:00 PM – 03:00 PM EST
Identify Liquidity Zones: Look for equal highs/lows or session highs/lows.
Execute Trades: Enter trades when price sweeps liquidity and rejects from an FVG or Breaker Block within the Silver Bullet window.
Targets: Use opposing liquidity pools or session extremes.
Key Considerations:
Strict Timing: Only trade within the designated time windows.
Confluence Factors: Combine with market structure shifts and order blocks.
Risk Management: Place stops beyond liquidity sweep wicks.
Conclusion
Mastering ICT trading strategies requires patience, precision, and continuous practice. These five strategies—FVG, PO3, IFVG with Liquidity Sweeps, Breaker Blocks, and the Silver Bullet—provide a comprehensive framework to align with institutional price delivery. Use confluence factors and practice in demo environments before applying these methods in live markets.
Happy Trading!
Note: This guide is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
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Smart Money Unicorn Setup Breakdown - Lord MEDZ1. Liquidity Sweep (Stop Hunt)
The market started by sweeping liquidity during the London session, taking out the lows formed in the Asian session.
This liquidity grab ensured that weak-handed traders were removed before a true move could be initiated.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
Following the liquidity sweep, we observed a strong break of structure to the upside, confirming a shift in market direction.
This BOS indicated that Smart Money had absorbed sell-side orders and was now preparing to push price higher.
3. The Breaker Block Confirmation
The price retested a Breaker Block, which acted as a high-probability area for entry.
This breaker aligned with an area of unmitigated orders, confirming institutional interest at this level.
4. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Entry
A clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) was present at the retracement, providing a discounted entry.
The market efficiently filled the imbalance, which served as the optimal entry point for long positions.
5. Expansion & Target Zones
New York Session momentum fueled the expansion move.
The trade was closed at a strong premium, securing a solid Risk/Reward Ratio of 6.29.
Final Notes
✅ Unicorn Setup Complete: Liquidity grab, BOS, Breaker retest, and FVG entry.
✅ Institutional Move Confirmed: Clean structure shift with high-volume expansion.
✅ Precision Execution: Entry aligned with FVG, securing max efficiency.
📈 Lesson: Smart Money Concepts (SMC) provide high-probability setups when all confluences align. This trade was a textbook SMC Unicorn Setup, demonstrating the power of liquidity, structure shifts, and imbalance fills.
Profit Secured: Risk/Reward: 6.29
Execution Level: A+
Lord MEDZ 🔥
US Nonfarm Payroll Report: Market InsightsUS Nonfarm Payroll Report: Market Insights
Navigating the complex waves of the financial markets requires an astute understanding of various economic indicators. Among them, the nonfarm payroll report stands out as a pivotal monthly metric that can significantly sway financial markets. This article demystifies the intricacies of this influential report, walking through what to know before trading it.
Nonfarm Payroll Definition
The nonfarm payroll (NFP) is a key economic barometer that tallies the number of employed individuals in the US, excluding the agricultural sector. Besides the farm workers, government, private household, and nonprofit organisation workers are not included.
This nonfarm payroll, meaning the workforce in industries like manufacturing, services, construction, and goods, reflects the health of corporate America and, by extension, the US economy. It’s one of the components of the Employment Situation report released on the first Friday of every month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm employment change data is released along with unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data.
Given its encompassing nature, the NFP and its importance to economic vitality makes it a beacon for investors and traders, who see the data as a projection of economic trends and an influencer of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Fluctuations in NFP numbers can cause significant movements in currency, bond, and stock markets.
The Nonfarm Payroll Report and Market Volatility
The release of NFP figures is a major event on the economic calendar, often triggering heightened market volatility. As nonfarm payroll news hits the wires, traders and investors brace for potential rapid swings in asset prices, particularly in the forex market. The immediate aftermath can see significant fluctuations in currency pairs with the US dollar. The anticipation and reaction to the nonfarm payroll in forex markets exemplify the weight this report carries.
Impact of NFP on USD Pairs
The nonfarm payroll report has a profound influence on USD pairs. When the NFP data is released, traders immediately compare the figures to market expectations, leading to price adjustments based on how well the actual data aligns with analyst forecasts. The broader trend of NFP data is also important, but it generally takes a backseat compared to actual vs expected figures.
For example, if the report indicates stronger-than-expected job growth, the US dollar typically strengthens, especially against currencies like the euro, yen, and pound. A robust employment outlook suggests economic health, potentially raising expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
On the flip side, if the NFP numbers fall short of expectations, the US dollar may weaken, particularly if the data points to economic slowdown or stagnation. In such cases, currencies like the euro or Japanese yen might rise against the dollar, as traders speculate that the Federal Reserve could delay interest rate hikes or even consider easing measures to boost the economy.
The NFP report also reverberates through other major currency markets. For instance, currencies in economies closely tied to US trade and investment—such as the Canadian dollar or Mexican peso—may experience volatility as changes in US employment data often reflect shifts in economic demand for their goods and services.
The Role of Employment Rates and Wages in Market Sentiment
Within the US nonfarm payroll release, two key indicators—unemployment rates and average hourly earnings (month-on-month)—are pivotal in influencing market sentiment.
Unemployment Rates
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labour force actively seeking employment but currently without a job. A falling unemployment rate generally signals that more people are finding work, a positive indicator for economic growth.
As a result, equities may rally, and the US dollar often strengthens, particularly if the data beats expectations. Traders interpret lower unemployment as a sign of economic resilience, which could influence the Federal Reserve to maintain or tighten monetary policy, further boosting the dollar.
Conversely, a rising unemployment rate may signal economic weakness, spurring concerns over reduced consumer spending and slowing economic activity. This could lead investors to shift towards so-called safer assets like bonds or gold.
In the forex market, a rising unemployment rate tends to weaken the US dollar as it lowers expectations for interest rate hikes and prompts speculation about potential stimulus or rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further pressuring the dollar and encouraging risk-off sentiment.
Average Hourly Earnings
Alongside unemployment, average hourly earnings (m/m) is another key metric that traders closely monitor. This indicator tracks changes in wages from one month to the next and offers insight into inflationary trends.
When average hourly earnings rise, it can indicate that workers have more disposable income, which can increase consumer spending. Higher wages often fuel concerns about inflation, prompting markets to anticipate interest rate hikes to combat potential overheating in the economy. This expectation typically strengthens the US dollar.
However, if average hourly earnings come in below expectations or show signs of stagnation, markets may interpret this as a sign of weaker inflationary pressures. In such cases, traders may anticipate a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially delaying or even reversing interest rate hikes. This can weigh on the US dollar and boost equities.
Execution Tactics for the Nonfarm Payroll Report Release
On the day the NFP data is released, specific execution tactics tailored to the NFP's unique market footprint can add substantial value. Due to the potential for rapid price movements, traders narrow their focus to liquid markets, like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, to facilitate quick entries and exits. They’ll typically trade on the 1m, 2m, 5m, or 15m charts and often require platforms built with speed in mind.
Nonfarm payroll trading involves comparing the actual data against market expectations. The outcomes can typically be categorised as follows, with each scenario influencing forex markets differently:
- As Expected: Currency values may experience minimal immediate impact if the report aligns with analyst forecasts, as the anticipated news is already priced into the market.
- Better than Expected: A robust report can boost the US dollar, as higher employment rates suggest economic strength, potentially leading to rising interest rates.
- Worse than Expected: Conversely, weak employment figures can devalue the US dollar, reflecting economic concerns and pressuring policymakers towards accommodative measures.
Given the volatility, many traders prefer limit orders to manage slippage, potentially ensuring they enter the market at predetermined points. Lastly, spreads can widen substantially, inadvertently triggering a stop loss. Some traders choose to set a wider stop loss than normal for this reason.
Traders usually monitor not just the headline number but also revisions of previous reports and associated metrics, such as unemployment rate and wage growth, which can influence market sentiment. High-speed news feeds and an economic calendar containing nonfarm payroll dates are employed to access the numbers in real-time, enabling immediate analysis.
Analysing Unemployment and Wage Growth Numbers Together with NFP
When trading around the nonfarm payroll release, it's essential to look beyond the headline number and integrate unemployment and wage growth data into your analysis. The NFP number alone can drive initial market reactions, but combining it with unemployment and wage growth figures provides a more nuanced view of the economy’s direction.
Traders start by comparing the trends across these three metrics. For example, if the NFP report shows strong job creation but unemployment remains stubbornly high, this could indicate that the economy is absorbing a larger labour force, potentially due to discouraged workers returning to job-seeking. This dynamic might lead to a more muted market response, as the overall labour market picture is mixed.
On the other hand, rising average hourly earnings alongside strong US nonfarm payrolls often signals not just employment growth but increasing inflationary pressure. If wages grow faster than expected, especially when paired with a low unemployment rate, it could indicate that labour shortages are driving up pay, raising inflation risks and making Federal Reserve action more likely. In this scenario, traders might anticipate a stronger US dollar, as higher interest rates become more probable.
To streamline your analysis during nonfarm payrolls, consider the following approach:
- Aligning Expectations: Traders compare actual numbers for NFP, unemployment, and wage growth with analyst forecasts. If NFP and wages grow but the unemployment rate falls, the market is likely to favour USD strength, while mixed results can trigger choppier price action as traders digest the implications.
- Gauging Momentum: Looking at the broader trend can provide further insight. If unemployment has been trending down and wages are steadily increasing (i.e. an expanding economy), the overall market sentiment may remain bullish even if NFP slightly underperforms. Conversely, if there’s a rising unemployment rate despite decent NFP growth, it could signal that the economy is slowing down.
- Assessing Policy Impact: It’s good to know how the Federal Reserve might interpret the combined data. For instance, moderate NFP growth with stagnant wage numbers may not trigger immediate policy shifts, allowing for more accommodative conditions in the near term. However, strong wage growth and low unemployment alongside robust NFP numbers are more likely to prompt a hawkish response.
Trading the NFP: A Strategy
Traders often consider analytical nonfarm payroll predictions to calibrate their strategies. However, an approach to take advantage of whichever direction the market takes uses an OCO (One Cancels the Other) order. This order straddles the current price range just before the report is released. Such a strategy prepares the trader for movement in either direction, as the NFP release can generate a significant breakout from the prevailing range.
According to theory, the strategy unfolds:
- An OCO order is placed with one order above the current price range and another below it. This setup positions the trader to catch the initial surge regardless of its direction.
- Stop losses might be set on the opposite side of the pre-report range to potentially manage risk.
- Profit targets might be established within a four-hour window post-release, aiming for a favourable risk/reward ratio, such as 1:3.
- Alternatively, a trailing stop may be utilised, adjusting above or below newly formed swing points to protect potential returns as a trend develops.
Such strategies allow traders to potentially capitalise on the new trend direction ushered in by the NFP data.
Risk Management When Trading NFP
Trading the NFP report often brings heightened volatility, making risk management crucial for protecting capital during these market swings. Below are some key risk management practices often employed when trading the NFP:
- Awareness of Spreads: Spreads can widen substantially during NFP releases. This can trigger even wide stop losses; tight stop losses can suffer extreme slippage, where the stop loss execution price differs substantially from the desired price.
- Conservative Position Sizing: Some traders take smaller positions when entering pre- and post-NFP release. The increased volatility when the report is released can lead to slippage and greater-than-anticipated losses as a consequence. Likewise, post-release conditions can also be unpredictable if data is mixed.
- Avoiding Overtrading: Aim to be selective with trades to avoid chasing price swings in a highly reactive market. It might be preferable to wait for a clear direction to emerge before entering a trade.
Comparative Analysis with Other Economic Indicators
The NFP report serves as a primary mover in the forex market, but its full value is best understood in concert with other economic indicators. Investors compare its findings with the Consumer Confidence Index for insights into spending trends, as employment health can influence consumer optimism and spending behaviours.
Likewise, juxtaposing NFP data against the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures provides a more complete narrative of the economic cycle since higher employment typically signals increased production and economic growth. Additionally, assessing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) alongside NFP numbers can offer insight into inflationary pressures; strong employment data may point to higher inflation, a significant factor in central bank policy decisions.
The Bottom Line
In closing, learning how to trade nonfarm payroll data today may sharpen your market acumen and create exciting trading opportunities in the future. For those ready to apply these insights when NFP data is released, opening an FXOpen account provides access to over 700 markets, high-speed trade execution, tight spreads from 0.0 pips, and low commissions from $1.50. Happy trading!
FAQ
What Is NFP and How Does It Work?
The NFP meaning refers to the nonfarm payroll report, data that measures the number of jobs added in the US economy, excluding the agricultural sector. Released on the first Friday of every month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP is a key indicator of economic health, affecting currency, bond, and stock markets.
How Does Nonfarm Payroll Affect the Stock Market?
NFP data can drive stock market volatility. Strong job growth signals economic strength, often boosting equities. Conversely, weak NFP figures may indicate a slowing economy, leading to stock market declines as investors anticipate weaker corporate earnings.
What Happens When NFP Increases?
An NFP increase suggests robust job growth, typically strengthening the US dollar and stock markets, as investors expect economic expansion and potentially tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Why Is Nonfarm Payroll So Important?
An NFP report is crucial because it reflects the overall health of the US labour market and economy. Traders and investors use the data to gauge economic trends, determine Federal Reserve actions, and understand where markets are headed.
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Seeds in Chaos, Petals in Profit -A trader's guideSeeds in Chaos, Petals in Profit
A trader's guide to reading the market through nature's lens.
By: Masterolive
Intro:
This trader's guide is not another cookie-cutter trading system.
Instead, it focuses on building a long-term mindset and a way to read the market's chaos through nature's lens. This guide is grounded in real success but is not for the daily trader; it works for long-term swings using hourly price moves.
Over seven years of trading, I developed a unique way to view the market, which led to a practical trading mindset. The technique comes from simplifying the chart after experiencing endless combinations of indicators to no avail. It wasn't until I had to explain my concept to someone else that I found a way to use a garden analogy that fits the mindset well to see the market as a natural system: planting in chaos, thriving through storms.
Later, I read two books: "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros and "The Misbehavior of Markets" by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson. Surprisingly, these two books validated my approach and inspired me to share it. Previously, I would tell no one because I thought it was silly.
The overall goal is to plant a garden, watch it grow, and understand how the weather affects the plants. This guide walks you through determining what flowers you want to plant and how to read the weather after you have made your choice.
It uses a garden and planting flowers as an analogy to choosing the right stocks and interpreting an EMA indicator to determine the market's direction. This guide also works well for Bitcoin.
This guide will help you understand how to read and interpret the chart. It will also give you accurate future context so you react less to the market moves and see the bigger picture: Plant while they panic.
This guide is not financial advice.
Part One - Planting.
Some traders focus on various companies based on technicals or fundamentals, some short-term and some long-term. Other traders will focus on a few stocks or diversify across many.
For this guide, we pick and diversify a sector with roles that thrive together. The industry can be broad or small, but we will use 10 assets, including nine stocks and Bitcoin, and explain how they correlate and grow into a weather-worthy garden.
In this garden, we will focus on Tech and Finance and explain how to plant and organize the garden. First, we must look back at the broadest picture in finance. We will choose a stock exchange and a crypto exchange in this garden. (1 and 2 out of 10 flowers)
Why an exchange? Simply put, traders will always look for stocks and crypto to buy. They will look for the best companies and the best opportunities. Therefore, stock exchanges will benefit from the revenue they generate. If a stock goes parabolic, the exchange still profits from that price move.
Choosing the exchange skips the hassle of finding companies in a haystack. The same is true for the crypto exchange. Our garden has two flowers: one stock exchange and one crypto exchange, representing those two sectors.
Next, what else can correlate with our garden from a zoomed-out view?
Let's choose a Bank and a payment processor. (3 and 4 out of 10 flowers)
Traders will need the bank to on and offramp their cash profits to and from the stock and crypto exchange. Meanwhile, they will need to process those electronic payments.
The bank and payment processors benefit from trading surges; if everyone piles in for a parabolic price move of a particular stock, the bank and payment processors benefit from the action, and the exchanges offering the stock get revenue from the surge.
Once again, this choice skips the need to hunt for specific stocks. It takes advantage of all stocks since traders need cash, banks, electronic payments, and exchanges to buy those company stocks or bitcoin.
Our garden now has Four flowers, a bank and payment processor, and two exchanges for this sector. The correlation? Exchanges, banks, and processors all thrive when traders move money.
The fifth is a pivot flower before we discuss the tech company sector. This pivot flower is a gambling company (5 out of 10).
How does this correlate? Some traders and other users gamble with their cash and profits; even in a recession or a depression, people will still gamble. Plus, users might take their gambling winnings and invest them in a stock or buy bitcoin. They need a bank, an exchange, and a payment method.
In this case, the flowers are self-reinforcing: gambling winnings or losses, stock booms or busts; it doesn't matter in the big picture because, once again, exchanges, banks, and processors all thrive when people move money. Our garden now has five flowers with a broad but strong correlation.
Now, on to the tech sector with the last five flowers.
You will hone in on specific tech roles at this point, but remember that your choices will be self-reinforcing.
If your choice booms, the exchange benefits, and you benefit again from the exchange stock. You will electronically transfer your profits to your bank, which you benefit from by owning the bank stock and payment processor. But if you're smart, you will skip the gambling and let the crowd roll the dice while you plant the profits.
We will focus on two more flowers (6 and 7 out of 10) for tech, so we need to find companies exposed to the popular and relevant tech we want. For tech company 1, you could expose yourself to AI, EVs, and ROBOTS. For tech company 2, Semiconductors (or graphics cards).
In this section of our garden, graphic cards and AI rely on one another, while EVs and robots use AI to operate. Eventually, people will buy or sell the robot and EV, and some may use the profits to buy stock (or Bitcoin), requiring a bank and payment processor.
Meanwhile, people use LLMs, log into their bank, or exchange daily on a computer that requires a graphics card.
Our garden now has seven flowers out of 10, 3 more to go!
We want to diversify (but stay correlated with our garden), so next, we will look at a real estate company or ETF—but not just any company or ETF, one that develops in tech hub areas. How does this correlate?
Robots, AI, EVs, and graphics cards all need workers to operate the companies; young talent will want to move to places where they can work in AI or Robotics or factory EV workers, so the real estate in those areas will be in high demand, so now we own the real estate for our Ai, EV, Robots, and graphic card workers.
As tech grows, real estate booms, driving more money through exchanges, banks, and processors.
We now have eight flowers in our weather-worthy garden.
For the 9th flower, we turn to a wildflower: none other than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not just a crypto coin but a capital asset, a store of value for your currency when it debases.
People, especially tech workers, will buy, trade, and sell Bitcoin.
As people learn and turn to the asset, global capital will flow through Bitcoin as people around the world save their cash value,
whether it be from gambling winnings, selling a car, selling real estate, selling a stock, or simply putting part of their income from their tech job into it regularly. All of this requires Exchanges, Banks, and payment processors to move.
Bitcoin correlates with that, as exchanges profit off bitcoin, which you own stock in the exchange company. You still need a bank to land on and a payment processor to move the money electronically.
We now have nine flowers in our garden, and it's almost complete.
How can we diversify even more? We can use industrial metal for our last flower, but how does an industrial metal correlate with our tech and finance garden?
Copper is the metal that conducts electricity, and electricity is needed to move money, send Bitcoin, power a growing network of EV superchargers, and power the factories that produce EVs, graphics cards, robots, and more. Copper's the most vigorous root, tying every flower, from tech to finance, into a weather-worthy bed. Meanwhile, the crowds go for gold and sleep on copper.
That completes our garden with 10 flowers. It's a diversified flowerbed, but the flowers correlate in the big picture: Tech drives money movement, which benefits exchanges, banks, and processors; copper powers tech, which drives Bitcoin adoption.
Your goal is to find and build your garden. Think up different bigger pictures with other sectors and roles. Correlating these assets keeps the garden strong through chaos and self-reinforces one another.
To review, we have the following:
Stock exchange
Crypto Exchange
Bank
Payment processor
Gambling
Ai / EV / Robots
Semiconductors (Graphics cards)
Real estate
Bitcoin
Copper
Now that we have planted our garden, let's examine the weather and its meaning. We will learn to read the weather and see when storms are coming or clearing.
In part 2, you will set a simple EMA indicator, learn how to interpret the weather, and tend to the flowers in our garden.
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It's been a while since I made an indicator and explained it, so I'd like to take the time to introduce and explain something I heard a long time ago.
(Original text)
I made purchases at m-signal 1W in yesterday's fall as I see it rose above ha-low and closed above m-signals. It looks like m-signals can't prevent traps. Now I'm losing money again. I think it's better to make purchases when RSI is below 30. I don't want to feed market makers, somehow it happens over and over.
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Looking at the above, it seems that the purchase (LONG) was made when the price rose above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W, 1D chart and then started to fall.
If we check this on the 30m chart, it is expected that the purchase (LONG) was made near the section indicated by the circle section.
I said that it would have been much better to buy (LONG) when RSI was below 30, but when RSI was below 30, it refers to the section from February 25 to March 1, so I think it's regret due to the loss.
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If you look at what I explained as an idea, I said that you need to get support in the section marked with a circle to continue the upward trend.
And, I said that support is important near the HA-Low indicator when it falls.
Therefore, if it falls in the section marked with a circle, you should enter a sell (SHORT) position.
However, if you do not see a downward trend, you should trade based on whether there is support in the HA-Low indicator.
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To check for support, you need to check the movement for at least 1-3 days.
Therefore, checking for support is a difficult and tedious task.
Since most futures transactions are made on time frame charts below the 1D chart, you cannot check for support for 1-3 days.
Therefore, you need to check the movement at the support and resistance points you want to trade and respond accordingly.
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The coin market is a market where trend trading is good.
Therefore, it is important to know what the current trend is.
It is better to think of the basic trend based on the trend of the 1D chart.
The current trend of the 1D chart is a downtrend.
Therefore, the SHORT position can be said to be the main position.
As mentioned earlier, in order to turn into an uptrend, support must be received within the range indicated by the circle.
If not, it is likely to continue the downtrend again.
Since the HA-Low indicator has been newly formed, the 89253.9 point is the point where a new trading strategy can be created.
If it is not supported by the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to lead to a stepwise downtrend, so you should also think about a countermeasure for this.
-
What we want to know through chart analysis is the trading point, that is, the support and resistance points.
You should decide whether to start trading depending on whether there is support at the support and resistance points.
Even if you start trading properly at the support and resistance points you want, you must also think about how to respond to a loss cut.
If you cannot think of a response plan for a loss cut, it is better not to trade at all.
-
Indicators are only reference materials for your decisions, not absolute.
- The M-Signal indicator on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts is an indicator for viewing trends,
- The HA-Low and HA-High indicators correspond to points for creating trading strategies.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that it has risen from the low range, and if it is supported by the HA-Low indicator, it is the time to buy.
If it does not, and it falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, so you should think about a response plan for this.
The creation of the HA-High indicator means that it has fallen from the high range, and if it is supported by the HA-High indicator, there is a possibility of a full-scale upward trend.
If not, it may fall until it meets the HA-Low indicator, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
-
If the price is maintained near the StochRSI 50 indicator on the 1D chart, it is expected to lead to an increase to rise above the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart.
At this time, if it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D and 1W charts, it is likely to lead to an attempt to rise near 94827.9.
If not, it is likely to end as a rebound.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Exhaustion
Today, we will break down candle exhaustion and how to use it for high-probability trade entries. We will analyze a bearish engulfing pattern, the role of trendline breaks, and how we combined this with the ORB strategy at the US open to secure a strong entry for the 2905 target.
What is Candle Exhaustion?
Candle exhaustion occurs when price action slows down after a strong move, showing signs that buyers or sellers are losing strength. This is often seen through smaller-bodied candles, wicks rejecting key levels, or a sharp engulfing candle reversing prior movement.
Candle exhaustion smaller body's larger wicks.
A bearish engulfing candle formed, engulfing three previous candles, signaling that sellers have aggressively stepped in. This confirmed a shift in momentum, suggesting that buyers were losing control. Key Takeaway: A multi-candle engulfing increases the strength of the reversal signal. The 15-minute trendline was broken, adding further confluence for a shift in market structure
Early entry model
Price came and tapped the supply zone, rejecting and closing under trend. This was the 2nd confirmation of sells.
This 2nd engulfing was the 3rd confirmation sellers have taken control.
The US session opened at 2:30 PM, a key time for volatility.
We then applied the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy to refine our 2nd entry. With price under the 50 moving average
The breakout confirmed momentum towards our 2905 target, aligning with our pre-trade
analysis.
Conclusion
By recognizing candle exhaustion, engulfing patterns, and trendline breaks, we stacked
confluences for a high-probability sell trade.
The ORB strategy allowed us to refine our 2nd execution at the perfect time.
Lesson: Trading is about patience, waiting for confirmations, and executing with confidence.
US30 Trading Strategy That’s Been Proven to WorkThis strategy is backtested over trades and works best during the New York session (9:30 AM - 12 PM EST).
Here’s how it works:
Step 1: Identify Key Levels
These are the support & resistance areas where institutions place big orders.
Look for previous highs, lows,
Step 2: Wait for a Liquidity Grab
Banks love to trick retail traders by creating fake breakouts.
We wait for price to break a key level, trap traders, then reverse.
Step 3: Enter on Confirmation
Once we see a liquidity grab, we wait for a strong rejection candle (pin bar, engulfing, etc.).
Entry is placed at the close of the confirmation candle.
Step 4: Set Stop Loss & Take Profit
Stop loss: Just beyond the liquidity grab.
Take profit: At least 2x the stop loss distance for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
What Is ICT PO3, and How Do Traders Use It?What Is ICT PO3, and How Do Traders Use It?
The ICT Power of 3 is a strategic trading method that helps traders identify behaviour of ‘smart money.’ It dissects market movements into three distinct phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. This article explores the intricacies of the Power of 3 strategy and its practical application in trading.
Understanding the ICT PO3 Trading Concept
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3), or the AMD setup, is a strategic trading framework developed by Michael J. Huddleston, better known as the Inner Circle Trader. This approach revolves around three critical phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution, which collectively help traders understand and anticipate market movements.
Accumulation Phase
During this phase, smart money or institutional investors accumulate positions within a price range, often leading to a period of low volatility and sideways movement. This stage sets the groundwork for future price movements by creating a base of support or resistance.
Manipulation Phase
The manipulation phase involves deliberate price moves by smart money to trigger stop losses and deceive retail traders. In a bullish scenario, prices may dip below the established range, while in a bearish market, prices might spike above the range. This phase is seen as being characterised by sharp, misleading price movements aimed at manipulating liquidity.
Distribution Phase
Following manipulation, the distribution phase sees smart money offloading their positions, leading to significant price movements in the intended direction. For bullish trends, this involves a strong upward move, whereas, in bearish conditions, it results in a sharp decline. This phase marks the realisation of the strategic positions built during the accumulation phase.
Understanding this ICT concept allows traders to align their strategies with the actions of institutional investors, potentially enhancing their ability to make informed trading decisions. The ICT PO3 strategy is versatile, applicable across different timeframes and financial instruments, making it a valuable tool for traders in various markets.
Below, we’ll discuss each of these three phases in more detail.
Accumulation Phase
The accumulation phase is a crucial initial stage within the Power of 3 trading strategy. It represents a period where institutional investors, often referred to as smart money, quietly build their positions in a particular asset. This phase is characterised by relatively low volatility and sideways price movement, typically near key support or resistance levels.
During accumulation, the market tends to range within a narrow band as large players gradually buy into the asset without significantly driving up its price. This steady acquisition reflects their confidence in the asset's future appreciation. Recognising the accumulation phase involves monitoring for signs such as low-volatile, ranging price action and potential increases in trading volume without major price changes.
Indicators of the accumulation phase include:
- Low Volatility: The asset trades within a tight range, showing little directional bias.
- Support Levels: Accumulation often occurs near historical support or resistance levels where the price is deemed under or overvalued by institutional investors.
- Increased Volume: There may be a gradual rise in volume as smart money accumulates positions, signalling their interest without causing sharp price movements.
Specifically, this range is also intended to trap retail traders on both sides of the market. In a bullish accumulation, for example, where the price will eventually break upwards, the range will trap bullish traders buying from the support level inside of the range. Given that these traders will most likely set their stop losses below the range, this paves the way for the next stage: manipulation of liquidity.
However, some traders will also take a short position in this range, anticipating that price will continue to break lower. These traders add fuel to the distribution leg discussed later.
The Manipulation Phase
The manipulation phase is a pivotal part of the ICT PO3 trading strategy. This stage is marked by deliberate actions from institutional investors to create market conditions that mislead and trap retail traders. It follows the accumulation phase, where positions are built, and precedes the distribution phase, where these positions are realised.
Characteristics of the Manipulation Phase:
- Deceptive Price Movements: During this phase, the price moves sharply in a direction opposite to the expected trend. In a bullish setup, prices might dip below the established range, while in a bearish setup, they might spike above the range. These moves are designed to trigger stop-loss orders, encourage breakout traders to enter positions and ultimately generate liquidity for the smart money’s large orders.
- Triggering Retail Traps: The primary goal is to shake out early traders by hitting their stop-loss levels. For instance, a sudden dip in a bullish market might make retail traders believe that the market is turning bearish, prompting them to close their positions.
- Creating Liquidity: By inducing these price movements, smart money creates liquidity that allows them to add to their positions at more favourable prices. This phase is crucial for building the necessary conditions for the subsequent distribution phase.
Recognising Manipulation:
- False Breakouts: Characterised by sharp, sudden moves that quickly reverse. These are often designed to lure traders into thinking a breakout has occurred.
- Price Action Signals: Price action that doesn’t align with the overall market structure or sentiment can be a sign of manipulation. This can be especially true after a long uptrend or downtrend, signalling potential exhaustion.
For example, in a bullish market, after a period of accumulation where prices have stabilised within a range, a sudden drop might occur. This drop triggers stop-loss orders and panics retail traders into selling. It also encourages some to trade what appears to be a bearish breakout. Smart money then buys these positions at lower prices, preparing for the distribution phase where they push the prices up sharply.
The Distribution Phase
The distribution phase is the final stage in the Power of 3 trading strategy, where smart money begins to offload their positions built during the accumulation phase. This phase follows the manipulation phase, and it is characterised by strong price movements in the direction opposite to the manipulation.
Key Characteristics of the Distribution Phase:
- Significant Price Movement: This phase involves substantial price changes as institutional investors begin to realise their positions. In a bullish scenario, this means a sharp upward movement; in a bearish scenario, a sharp decline.
- High Volume: The distribution phase is often accompanied by high trading volume, indicating that a large number of positions are being sold or bought back.
- Market Confirmation: During this phase, the true market trend that was obscured during the manipulation phase becomes evident. The price moves in the direction of the original accumulation, confirming the intent of the smart money.
- Retail Trader Participation: Many traders have been shaken out of their positions, including those who were wrong about the initial breakout’s direction and those who were correct but had their stop loss triggered by the manipulation phase. They now pile back into the trade, fueling this strong upward or downward leg.
Recognising the Distribution Phase:
- Price Action: Traders look for strong, sustained movements in price, often with large candles. For a bullish trend, this means a consistent upward movement; for a bearish trend, a consistent downward movement.
- Volume Analysis: Increased trading volume during these price movements indicates distribution.
- Breaking Market Structure: The high or low of the accumulation/manipulation phase will be traded through.
- Technical Indicators: Use of tools like moving averages and support/resistance levels can help confirm the transition into the distribution phase.
For example, in a bullish market, smart money begins to buy aggressively after the price has been manipulated downwards to create liquidity. This buying pressure pushes the price up sharply, signalling the start of the distribution phase. Traders can look for increased volume and price action breaking above previous resistance levels as confirmation.
Practical Application of ICT PO3
The ICT PO3 strategy can be effectively applied by traders through a structured approach involving higher timeframe analysis and keen observation of price movements. Here's how traders typically utilise this strategy:
Setting the Daily Bias
Traders often start by establishing their market bias for the day. This involves analysing higher timeframes to determine the overall market trend. Understanding whether the market is bullish or bearish sets the foundation for the day’s trading strategy.
Marking the Day's Open
After setting the bias, traders mark the opening price of the day. This price point is critical as it serves as a reference for potential manipulation and trading opportunities.
Identifying Manipulation
Traders look for price movements beyond the day's open and the established range boundaries. For a long bias, they observe for manipulation below the open, while for a short bias, they look above the open. This stage is crucial as it indicates where smart money is likely manipulating the market to create liquidity.
Entry Signals
While a trader can simply enter once price trades beyond the day’s open, many choose to confirm the trade. Using a 5-15 minute chart, they might look for signals such as:
- Price moving into a significant area of liquidity beyond a key swing high or low.
- A break of established market structure, such as price beginning to move above previous swing highs in a bullish setup (known as a change of character, or ChoCh).
- Chart patterns or candlestick patterns that indicate a reversal or continuation, such as a hammer/shooting star, wedge, quasimodo, etc.
- A moving average crossover that supports the expected price direction.
- Momentum indicators showing waning momentum in the manipulated direction.
Traders typically place stop losses beyond the manipulation high or low to potentially manage risk here.
Distribution Phase Opportunities
If an entry is missed during the manipulation phase, traders can look for opportunities during the distribution phase. Although this phase may offer a less favourable risk-to-reward ratio, it still provides potential trading opportunities. Traders might wait for a market structure break or ChoCh, followed by a pullback, setting stop losses either beyond a recent swing high/low or beyond the manipulation high or low.
ICT Power of 3 Example
On the GBPUSD 15m chart above, the day open acts as a support level, marking the accumulation phase. A candle wicks below the range, followed by a price break above the range, which then sharply reverses, indicating the manipulation phase. After taking liquidity, price rebounds sharply.
On the 5m chart, a break above the downtrend structure creates a change of character (ChoCh) before price pulls back and breaks above the manipulation high, signalling a bullish market shift. Subsequent pullbacks might be excellent entry points for traders who missed the manipulation phase entries before price marks up further.
The Bottom Line
Understanding and applying the ICT Power of 3 strategy can enhance a trader's ability to navigate market movements. By recognising the phases of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution, traders can better align their actions with institutional behaviours. To implement this strategy and optimise your trading experience, consider opening an FXOpen account for advanced trading tools and support of a broker you can trust.
FAQ
What Is PO3 in Trading?
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) is a trading strategy developed by Michael J. Huddleston, known as the Inner Circle Trader. It involves three key phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. These phases help traders understand market movements by aligning their strategies with institutional investors.
What Is the Power of 3 ICT Entry?
The Power of 3 ICT entry involves identifying optimal points to enter trades during the phases of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Traders typically look for signs of price manipulation, such as false breakouts, and then enter trades in the direction of the anticipated distribution phase.
How Does the Power of 3 Work?
The ICT Power of 3 can be an indicator of potential smart money involvement. It works by breaking down market movements into three phases:
1. Accumulation: Smart money builds positions.
2. Manipulation: Price moves are designed to deceive retail traders.
3. Distribution: Smart money offloads positions, leading to significant price movements in the intended direction.
How to Trade the Power of Three?
To begin Power of Three trading, traders first set their daily bias using higher timeframe analysis. They then mark the daily open and observe for price manipulation. Entry signals include breaks of market structure, liquidity grabs, and candlestick patterns. Traders set stop losses beyond manipulation highs or lows and can also look for entries during pullbacks in the distribution phase.
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