Correlation between USDT.D and BTC.D
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(USDT.D 1M chart)
If USDT dominance is maintained below 4.97 or continues to decline, the coin market is likely to be on the rise.
The maximum decline is expected to be around 2.84-3.42.
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(BTC.D 1M chart)
However, in order for the altcoin bull market to begin, BTC dominance is expected to fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend.
Therefore, we need to see if it falls below the 55.01-62.47 range.
The maximum rise range is expected to be around 73.63-77.07.
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In summary of the above, since funds are currently concentrated in BTC, it is likely that BTC will show an upward trend, and altcoins are likely to show a sideways or downward trend as they fail to follow the rise of BTC.
The major bear market in the coin market is expected to begin in 2026.
For the basis, please refer to the explanation of the big picture below.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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Trend Analysis
HA-RSI + Stochastic Ribbon: The Hidden Gem for Trend & MomentumNavigating volatile markets requires more than just raw price action. The Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator blends the power of smoothed candlesticks with momentum insights to give traders a clearer picture of trend strength and reversals.
At Xuantify , we use the Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator as a hybrid momentum and trend tool. While the indicator calculations are based on Heikin Ashi values to smooth out noise and better capture trend dynamics, the chart itself displays standard candlesticks (real price data) . This ensures that all signals are aligned with actual market structure, making it easier to execute trades with confidence and clarity.
This dual-layer approach gives us the best of both worlds: clarity from smoothing and precision from real price action. MEXC:SOLUSDT.P
🧠 How We Use It at Xuantify
At Xuantify , we integrate the Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator into our multi-layered strategy framework. It acts as a trend confirmation filter and a momentum divergence detector , helping us avoid false breakouts and time entries with greater precision. We pair it with volume and volatility metrics to validate signals and reduce noise. Note the Stochastic Ribbon Overlay as shown in the chart, very accurate for momentum.
⭐ Key Features
Heikin Ashi Smoothing : Filters out market noise for clearer trend visualization.
RSI-Based Oscillation : Measures momentum shifts with precision.
Color-Coded Bars : Instantly identify bullish/bearish momentum.
Dynamic Signal Zones : Customizable overbought/oversold thresholds.
Stochastic Ribbon Overlay : A powerful multi-line stochastic system that enhances momentum analysis and trend continuation signals.
💡 Benefits Compared to Other Indicators
Less Whipsaw : Heikin Ashi smoothing reduces false signals common in traditional RSI.
Dual Insight : Combines trend and momentum in one visual.
Better Divergence Detection : Easier to spot hidden and regular divergences.
Visual Simplicity : Clean, intuitive design for faster decision-making.
⚙️ Settings That Matter
RSI Length : Default is 14, but we often test 10 or 21 for different timeframes.
Smoothing Type : EMA vs. SMA – EMA reacts faster, SMA is smoother.
Overbought/Oversold Levels : 70/30 is standard, but 80/20 can reduce noise in trending markets.
📊 Enhancing Signal Accuracy
Combine with Volume Oscillators to confirm momentum strength.
Use Price Action Zones to validate oscillator signals.
Look for Divergences between price and oscillator for early reversal clues.
🧩 Best Combinations with This Indicator
MACD : For cross-confirmation of momentum shifts.
Bollinger Bands : To identify volatility squeezes and breakouts.
Support/Resistance Levels : For contextual trade entries and exits.
⚠️ What to Watch Out For
Lag in Strong Trends : Like all smoothed indicators, it may react slightly late.
Over-Optimization : Avoid curve-fitting settings to past data.
Standalone Use : Best used in conjunction with other tools, not in isolation.
🚀 Final Thoughts
The Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator is a powerful hybrid tool that simplifies complex market behavior into actionable insights. At Xuantify, it’s a core part of our strategy toolkit, helping us stay ahead of the curve with clarity and confidence.
🔔 Follow us for more educational insights and strategy breakdowns!
We regularly share deep dives into indicators, trading psychology, and backtested strategies. Stay tuned and level up your trading game with us!
SMI vs. Stochastic: Which One Gives You the Edge?Momentum indicators are essential tools in every trader’s arsenal—but not all are created equal. While the Stochastic Oscillator has been a go-to for decades, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) offers a more refined and reliable way to read market momentum.
In this post, we’ll break down the key differences between these two indicators, how we use them at Xuantify , and why the SMI might just give you the edge you’ve been looking for.
🧠 How We Use It at Xuantify
We’re always looking for tools that offer greater precision and less noise . While the Stochastic Oscillator is one of the most commonly used tools for spotting overbought and oversold conditions, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) gives us a clearer, smoother view of momentum —especially in volatile or choppy markets.
We use the SMI to refine our entries and exits , particularly when trading breakouts or reversals. MEXC:ETHUSDT.P
⭐ Key Features
Stochastic Oscillator : Measures the closing price relative to the high-low range. Simple and responsive. Great for spotting short-term reversals.
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) : Measures the distance of the current close from the midpoint of the high-low range. Smoother and more centered around zero. Better at filtering out false signals.
💡 Benefits Compared to Other Indicators
Stochastic Oscillator vs. SMI:
Signal Smoothness: Moderate vs. High
Noise Filtering: Low vs. Excellent
Centered Oscillation: No vs. Yes (around 0)
Best Use Case: Range-bound markets vs. Trend shifts & momentum confirmation
False Signal Risk: Higher vs. Lower
The SMI is especially useful when you want to avoid whipsaws and get a more reliable read on momentum .
⚙️ Settings That Matter
Stochastic Oscillator : %K = 14, %D = 3
SMI : Length = 14, Signal Smoothing = 3, Double Smoothing = 3
You can adjust the SMI smoothing values to match the volatility of the asset— lower smoothing for fast markets , higher for slower ones.
📊 Enhancing Signal Accuracy
Enhance SMI signals by combining them with:
Trend filters like EMAs or Supertrend
Volume confirmation
Support/resistance zones
Divergence spotting for early trend reversals
This layered approach helps us avoid false positives and stay aligned with the broader trend .
🧩 Best Combinations with This Indicator
SMI + EMA Crossovers: Confirm momentum with trend direction
SMI + RSI Divergence: Spot early reversals with confluence
SMI + Volume Profile: Validate momentum near key price levels
⚠️ What to Watch Out For
Lag in fast markets: SMI’s smoothing can delay signals slightly
Over-optimization: Avoid excessive tweaking of parameters
Not ideal alone: Best used with confluence tools for confirmation
🚀 Final Thoughts
The Stochastic Oscillator is a classic for a reason—but the Stochastic Momentum Index is a refined evolution . We’ve found that SMI gives us cleaner signals , better momentum clarity , and fewer false alarms —especially when paired with smart filters.
If you're looking to upgrade your momentum toolkit , the SMI might just be your edge.
🔔 Follow us for more educational insights and strategy breakdowns!
We break down indicators, strategies, and market psychology to help you trade smarter—not harder.
Learning#01 : Master Candle Theory🕯️ Master Candle Theory:
The Hidden Price Action Signal Most Traders Overlook
Introduction
In a world full of overcomplicated indicators and conflicting signals, sometimes the simplest patterns reveal the deepest insights. Master Candle Theory is one such underrated concept — a clean, structure-based method of reading price that often signals major breakouts before they happen.
Whether you're a beginner trying to understand price behavior or a seasoned trader looking to tighten your entries, this article will break down how to identify, understand, and apply Master Candle setups in real markets.
🔍 What is a Master Candle?
A Master Candle (MC) is a single large candlestick that fully engulfs the range (high to low) of the next 3 to 5 candles.
To qualify as a Master Candle:
The candle must have a relatively large range.
The next 3–5 candles should form completely within the high and low of that Master Candle.
These inside candles usually show reduced volatility and indecision.
This creates a "box" or price compression zone, which often leads to a significant breakout.
📊 Why It Matters
Price moves in cycles: expansion → contraction → expansion.
Master Candle formations represent the contraction phase — a build-up of pressure. Traders watching for breakouts from these formations can catch the next expansion leg with better precision.
Key benefits:
Clear structure: Easy to identify on any time frame.
Built-in risk control: The high and low of the MC give natural breakout and stop-loss levels.
Works across markets: Forex, crypto, indices — the principle applies universally.
🛠️ How to Trade the Master Candle Setup
Step 1: Identify the Master Candle
Look for a candle with a wide range.
Confirm that the next 3–5 candles stay within the high-low range of the MC.
Step 2: Mark the MC Range
Draw horizontal lines at the high and low of the MC.
This defines your breakout zone.
Step 3: Wait for a Breakout
Price should break out clearly above or below the MC range.
Volume increase or confirmation candle helps strengthen the signal.
Step 4: Manage the Trade
Entry: On breakout close or retest of the MC boundary.
Stop-loss: Just inside the opposite side of the MC.
Targets: Use previous structure, Fibonacci, or a fixed R:R ratio (e.g., 1:2+).
☠️ Pro Tips and Common Mistakes
✅ Best on higher time frames: MC setups are more reliable on 1H and above.
✅ Look for confluence: Combine MC setups with support/resistance, trendlines, or moving averages for higher probability trades.
❌ Avoid trading inside the MC range: It’s a zone of uncertainty — wait for confirmation.
❌ Don’t force the setup: Not every big candle is a Master Candle. Let the market show you clean, well-formed patterns.
🧠 Kiran’s Approach:
Real-World Application of Master Candle Theory
While the core theory is powerful on its own, I’ve refined a method that filters noise and improves accuracy using a multi-timeframe strategy I call HTF ~ LTF (Higher Time Frame vs. Lower Time Frame).
Here’s how I apply it in my day-to-day trading:
Identify the Master CandleI start by spotting a valid Master Candle and marking its high and low. This forms my breakout zone.
Define the No-Trade ZoneThe middle of the MC range is what I call the No-Trade Zone — a chop area where false breakouts are common. I avoid trading within this midrange.
Use HTF ~ LTF Confluence for BreakoutsOnce the price breaks the high or low of the Higher Time Frame (HTF) Master Candle, I don’t enter right away. Instead, I drop down to the Lower Time Frame (LTF) and wait for a candle to close beyond that breakout level.
Entry ConfirmationMy entry is taken above the high of the breakout candle on the LTF (for long setups), and vice versa for shorts. This gives me an added layer of confirmation and filters out weak breakouts.
Target and Stop-Loss
Target:
The full range of the Master Candle.
Stop-Loss:
For long trades: below the low of the MC.
For short trades: above the high of the MC.
⏱️ Ideal Time Frame Pairings
To apply the HTF ~ LTF (Higher Time Frame vs. Lower Time Frame) approach effectively, I use different time frame combinations based on the style of trade:
⏱️ For Intraday Trades:
Higher Time Frame: 15-minute or 25-minute
Lower Time Frame: 5-minute
⏱️ For Swing Trades:
Higher Time Frame: 75-minute or 1-Day
Lower Time Frame: 25-minute
⏱️ For Positional Trades:
Higher Time Frame: 1-Week
Lower Time Frame: 75-minute
This layered approach has helped me filter out noise, catch stronger momentum moves, and keep my trades structured and disciplined.
📈 Real Market Example
👻 Valid Breakout with Target Example :
👻 Valid Breakout with Partial Target Example :
👻 False Breakout with Valid Breakout Example :
📚 Final Thoughts
Master Candle Theory is a great way to bring structure and patience into your trading. Instead of chasing price, you’re learning to anticipate breakouts and position yourself logically.
Like all strategies, it’s not a magic bullet — but with the right discipline and context, Master Candles can become a high-probability tool in your technical arsenal.
Strategy & Education: Trading with Fibonacci and Order Blocks🔍 Trading Strategy Based on Fibonacci Levels and Order Blocks
This chart showcases three consecutive sell trades I executed on the BTCUSDT pair, each resulting in a profitable outcome. The purpose of this explanation is to demonstrate how Fibonacci retracement levels can be combined with Order Block zones to identify high-probability trade setups.
🧩 The Foundation: Understanding Price Retracement Behavior
The ABC, abc, and (a)(b)(c) structures marked on the chart are not Elliott Waves. Instead, these labels are used to represent simple retracement movements in the market. The focus here is not wave theory, but recognizing how price reacts and pulls back after a move, and how we can benefit from these reactions.
📌 Trade 1: Primary Fibo-OB Confluence
I drew a Fibonacci retracement from the A wave to the B wave.
The price then retraced to the C area, landing between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels, where an Order Block (OB) was also present.
This overlap created a strong technical and structural resistance zone.
I entered the first sell trade from this confluence.
📌 Trade 2: Internal Retracement and OB Alignment
Inside the first corrective move, a smaller abc pattern formed.
I applied Fibonacci again from small a to small b.
The c leg reached the same key Fibonacci zone (0.618–0.786) and overlapped with a second OB.
This confluence offered a second sell entry.
📌 Trade 3: Micro Structure – Same Logic Reapplied
I repeated the exact same logic one more time on a micro (a)(b)(c) structure.
Fibonacci from (a) to (b), price touched 0.618–0.786, coinciding again with an OB.
This became the third and final sell position.
🧠 The Logic Behind the Strategy:
Price doesn’t move in straight lines—it flows in waves. During pullbacks, if Fibonacci levels align with Order Block zones, the market tends to react strongly. My focus here was to identify these areas of confluence in advance and enter trades at high-probability turning points.
Using The Zig-Zag Indicator To Gain Clarity On Your Price ChartIn my experience, learning how to read a price chart, specifically understanding the ebbs and flows of a trend, is the biggest hurdle that newer traders face. At least on the technical side of things.
Something that helped me shorten that learning curve at the beginning of my trading career was the "Zig-Zag" indicator. Now, I didn't use it as part of a strategy or anything like that. Rather, it was a tool that helped train my eyes to read extensions and retracements in the markets both at a beginner and advanced level.
If you're someone that is struggling, hopefully it can do the same for you.
Please remember to support by hitting that like button and if you thought this video was helpful please share so other traders can benefit as well.
Akil
Taming the Trend: Mastering the Williams Alligator IndicatorEver wondered how to spot when the market is sleeping or ready to roar? At Xuantify , we use the Williams Alligator Indicator to decode market behavior with precision. Whether you're trading crypto, forex, stocks, or indices — this tool adapts across all markets. Let's take a closer look using BINANCE:BTCUSDT
🧠 How We Use It at Xuantify
We treat the Alligator as a trend confirmation and timing tool . We don’t just look for crossovers — we analyze the distance , angle , and alignment of the lines to gauge market momentum and trend maturity. It’s especially powerful when combined with volume and volatility filters.
⭐ Key Features
Three Smoothed Moving Averages
Jaw (Blue) : 13-period, shifted 8 bars forward
Teeth (Red) : 8-period, shifted 5 bars forward
Lips (Green) : 5-period, shifted 3 bars forward
Visual Trend Clarity :
The spacing and direction of the lines reveal trend strength and direction
Built-in Delay :
Forward shifting helps anticipate rather than react
💡 Benefits Compared to Other Indicators
Trend Clarity
Alligator : Strong — bold trend visualization
Moving Averages : Moderate — can lag or overlap
MACD : Good — clear histogram and signal line
Noise Filtering
Alligator : Excellent — smooths out market noise
Moving Averages : Low — sensitive to short-term fluctuations
MACD : Good — filters minor moves
Early Signals
Alligator : Moderate — waits for confirmation
Moving Averages : Fast — quick crossovers
MACD : Fast — early divergence signals
Visual Simplicity
Alligator : Clear — easy to interpret trend phases
Moving Averages : Cluttered — multiple lines can overlap
MACD : Complex — requires interpretation of histogram + lines
⚙️ Settings That Matter
For shorter timeframes : Reduce periods (e.g., 8-5-3) for faster signals
For longer timeframes : Stick with defaults or increase smoothing for clarity
Shift values : Keep them forward-shifted to maintain predictive edge
📊 Enhancing Signal Accuracy
Wait for clear separation between the lines
Confirm with volume spikes or breakouts
Use price action (e.g., higher highs/lows) as confirmation
🧩 Best Combinations with This Indicator
Fractals : For entry/exit signals
ATR : For dynamic stop-loss placement
RSI or Stochastic : To avoid overbought/oversold traps
Volume Profile : To validate breakout zones
⚠️ What to Watch Out For
Flat Alligator = No Trade Zone : Avoid trading when lines are tangled
Lag in Fast Markets : In high-volatility assets, the Alligator may react late
Over-reliance : Always combine with other tools for confirmation
🚀 Final Thoughts
The Williams Alligator isn’t just an indicator — it’s a market behavior model . At Xuantify, we use it to stay aligned with the market’s rhythm, avoid chop, and ride trends with confidence.
🔔 Follow us for more educational insights and strategy breakdowns!
Most Traders Want Certainty. The Best Ones Want Probability.Hard truth:
You’re trying to trade like an engineer in a casino.
You want certainty in an environment that only rewards probabilistic thinking.
Here’s how that kills your edge:
You wait for “confirmation” — and enter too late.
By the time it feels safe, the market has moved.
You fear losses — but they’re the cost of data.
Good traders don’t fear being wrong. They fear not knowing why.
You need to think in bets, not absolutes.
Outcomes don’t equal decisions. Losing on a great setup is still a good trade.
🎯 Fix it with better framing.
That’s exactly what we designed TrendGo f or — to help you see trend strength and structure without delusions of certainty.
Not perfect calls. Just cleaner probabilities.
🔍 Train your brain for the game you’re playing — or you’ll keep losing by default.
london break out strategy (my strategy) back test :2025 mayto learn is to share...
hello traders!
this is back test of london breakout strategy for gbp usd pair for month of the may.
i hope u read this see the idea that i had give me your comments and ideas ,maybe help me fix my mistakes, maybe it gives you some lead and etc. no more talking straight to the strategy ...
strategy summary the Strat focuses on breaking the range market of the asian session,
first u got to mark the high and low of the price between 4 am to 6 am utc then you have range that in the chart i showed like box , next we wait till 7 am utc , if price was out of the box zone we open a trade toward the trend( if it broke above you open a long and vise versa) or if it wasn't u simply wait for price to close above or below, then you open a trade with sl put on the opposite side of the box and profit set to 1.5 times of the sl. only one trade per day is acceptable .
there are some exception that you don't have to trade:
1.when there is bank holiday
2.when your sl would exceed 50 pip (that's high of a risk)
3. further effect of the news shall be studied that i didn't consider in this back test
I've put the results in an ai and asked it to analyze the results:
Summary Statistics
Total Trades: 19
Total Profit: +152.3 pips
Average Profit per Trade: +8.02 pips
Max Profit in a Trade: +49.0 pips
Max Loss in a Trade: -30.2 pips
Winning Trades: 10
Losing Trades: 9
Win Rate: 52.6%
Profit Factor: 1.74 (total gain / total loss)
Using Previous Day’s High and Low to Decide Intraday TrendIntroduction and Disclaimer
This article explains how to use the daily chart to understand and plan for short-term or intraday market direction.
To fully understand this, you should already know what directional bias means. If you’re not familiar with it, I highly recommend reading my previous article on the topic before continuing here.
Disclaimer
I'm not a financial advisor.
This article does not offer financial, investment, legal, or any kind of regulated advice.
It's made for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Trading involves risk. You can lose all your money—or even more—if you’re not careful.
You're reading the thoughts of a 22-year-old.
The goal of this article is to show you how to use the previous day’s high and low on a daily chart to:
Get a clear intraday bias (bullish or bearish).
Find entry signals for your trades.
Set clear invalidation points, meaning when a trade idea becomes invalid.
This is part of what’s called multi-timeframe analysis—looking at higher time frames to understand what might happen on lower ones.
Even if you trade short-term (like on 5 or 15-minute charts), it's still helpful to know what the bigger picture (like the daily chart) looks like. Why? Because it shows the main trend, important levels, and key zones that may not appear on lower time frames.
In my opinion, smart trading involves breaking down the price chart from top to bottom—starting with the big picture—then making decisions based on your trading strategy.
The ideas in this article work well for:
Intraday traders who want to capture moves during the day, and
Swing traders who want to catch bigger moves by entering early.
This concept can also be applied to higher time frames, such as the previous week’s high and low.
How to Secure Prop Firm Funding: Proven Strategies to Pass1️⃣ How to Secure Prop Firm Funding: Proven Strategies to Pass Challenges 📈
Introduction ✨
Securing prop firm funding opens the door to trading substantial capital and achieving financial freedom. However, passing these evaluations requires meticulous strategy, disciplined execution, and smart risk management. This article provides actionable strategies, optimized trading setups, and insights on leveraging AI to ensure you successfully navigate and pass your prop firm challenges.
Understanding Prop Firm Evaluations 📊🔍
Prop firm challenges typically include specific trading objectives:
💰 Profit targets (8–10% within 30 days)
⛔ Daily loss limits (usually 5%)
📉 Maximum drawdown limits (typically 10%)
💡 Tip: Print the rules and display them at your workspace to avoid rule breaches.
Focus on One High-Probability Strategy 📌🎯
Consistently profitable traders use one rigorously tested strategy. For example, a popular setup:
🔄 Liquidity Sweep: Wait for price to clear stops above recent highs or lows.
⚡ Market Structure Break (BOS): Enter after price breaks and confirms a new trend.
📥 Entry: Order block (OB) or Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Example Trade:
🔗 Pair: EUR/USD
🔽 Entry: OB after sweep at 1.0800
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 1.0820
🎯 Take Profit (TP): 1.0740
📊 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): 3:1
Start Small, Think Big 🧠🌱
Initially, risk only 0.5% per trade to maintain psychological comfort and buffer against drawdowns. Increase risk gradually once you have a profit cushion.
Leverage AI Insights 🤖📊
Modern traders enhance decision-making using AI-driven tools:
🟢 AI indicators for real-time liquidity detection
🔵 Predictive analytics for entry confirmations
Efficient Risk Management 🛡️⚖️
Set daily and weekly risk limits. For instance:
⏳ Maximum daily risk: 1%
📅 Weekly drawdown cap: 3%
Practical Example:
💵 If trading a $100,000 account, never risk more than $1,000 in a single day.
Journaling for Improvement 📒📝
Record every trade’s rationale, execution details, and outcome. This fosters accountability and improvement.
Conclusion ✅
Securing prop funding isn't about luck but disciplined, strategic execution. Optimize your trading, leverage technology, and strictly manage risk to ensure long-term success. 🏆
THE CONCEPT OF SUPPORT BECOMING RESISTANCE In the context of forex trading, the concept of "support becoming resistance" refers to a phenomenon that occurs when a price level that previously acted as a support level for an asset's price now switches roles and becomes a resistance level after it has been broken.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
Support Level: In forex trading, a support level is a price level at which a currency pair or any other financial instrument tends to find buying interest. This buying interest is strong enough to halt or reverse a downtrend in the price. Traders believe that the asset's price is likely to "bounce" off this support level and move higher, making it an essential point on the price chart.
Resistance Level: On the other hand, a resistance level is a price level where selling interest is significant enough to prevent the price from rising further. It acts as a barrier that tends to halt or reverse an uptrend in the price. Traders expect the price to "bounce" off this resistance level and move lower.
Support Becoming Resistance: The interesting concept comes into play when the price breaks below a previously established support level. When a support level is breached and the price continues to decline, it signifies a shift in market sentiment. The level that was once a support now becomes a resistance level for the price. If the price attempts to rally back up and reach that previous support level, it often faces selling pressure from traders who missed the initial breakdown and now see it as an opportunity to sell at a better price. As a result, the price might struggle to move beyond that level, and it starts acting as a resistance zone.
Understanding Market StructureIn this video, I break down market structure in a simple and easy-to-digest way, helping you understand how to identify whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Recognizing market direction is a key skill for any trader, it allows you to trade in alignment with price action and make more confident, higher-probability decisions.
✅ If you're new to trading or want to sharpen your edge, this video will give you the insights needed to read market trends more clearly.
📈 Hope you find value in this breakdown!
👉 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to support the channel and stay tuned for more educational content.
EUR/USD – The 20-Year Gameplan | How to Think Like a Macro TradWelcome to the most important EUR/USD chart you'll see this decade.
This isn't just technical analysis. This is a macro roadmap stretching from 2003 to 2045 — built for serious traders who think beyond the next candle.
@TradeWithMky #Miracle
📚 What This Chart Teaches You:
✅ Long-Term Channeling: How to map 40-year channels that actually hold.
✅ Key Reaction Zones: Learn where multi-year reversals are most likely.
✅ "Range of a Generation": Why EUR/USD could stay trapped for 5+ years.
✅ Two Futures – One Decision Point: Reclaiming the main channel = Ultra Bullish. Rejection = Controlled Descent.
🎯 Trade Plan Logic (Educational Focus)
📌 If price breaks above the range zone, target is a 50% Fibonacci expansion — with 1.36 and 1.55 as the macro resistances.
📌 If price rejects, the pair could drift within a multi-year compression channel targeting the 1.06–0.95 zone over the next decade.
📌 This model blends technical geometry, historical behavior, and trend integrity — skills every pro trader should master.
👁️ Why This Matters
This is not about predicting next week’s move.
This is about training your eyes to see structure where others see noise.
And if you can see the macro structure, you can outperform 99% of traders who zoom in too much, too soon.
⚡ Bonus Wisdom:
"Amateurs react. Professionals anticipate. Masters build maps."
– TradeWithMky
🔔 Follow me for more deep-dive macro education.
This is where Forex meets vision.
📌 TradeWithMky – where altcoins speak louder than Bitcoin... but Forex whispers the truth.
How to Trade Gold Market with the 50% Retracement CandleHey Traders so today wanted to show why you don't really need indicators to trade. Price action is the best way to trade imo because it's easier. For the most part indicators lag and can give you false signals. So if you are looking for a way to trade that does not involve indicators check this out.
So we can see that Gold is in a strong uptrend the strategy is wait until market pulls back to trendline and buy but what if you miss that pullback?
So you can still get in the uptrend look for a strong bullish candle like the one I highlighted on May 20. Then place an order to buy when the market pulls back to 50% of that candle. Measure it with the Fibonacci tool. Place your stop below the low of the candle or under support so that way you most likely won't get stopped out. Now this trade was textbook but not all of them are check out how as soon as it hit the 50% retracement of that candle market rocketed higher!
There you go simple way to trade and no need for complex indicators! This strategy works in all markets!
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
Why You Should Trade Zones, Not Points – Especially on XAUUSDIf you've been trading Gold (XAUUSD) for a while, you’ve likely noticed something strange in many analyses online. Support at 3256.73? Resistance at 3352.14?
Really? That precise?
This kind of fixed-point trading might look good on a chart, but it doesn't work in a real, volatile market — especially not in 2025.
I've been trading Gold as my primary asset for over a decade, and if there's one thing experience — and logic — have consistently shown me, it's this: you should trade price zones, not fixed points. Let me explain you why.
________________________________________
🔍 1. Gold Is Not a Low-Volatility Asset
Gold isn't EURUSD. It doesn't move in clean 20-30-pip increments. It's volatile, reactive, and sensitive to everything from Fed rate rumors to random tweets and global conflicts.
Over the past months, volatility has spiked — and not just because of economic data. We’re seeing:
• Geopolitical uncertainty that escalates and de-escalates overnight
• Macro shifts in interest rate expectations almost weekly
• Market sentiment changing faster than ever
In this environment, the idea that price will reverse exactly at 3352.14 is pure fantasy.
________________________________________
📏 2. Percentages Matter More Than Pips Now
Back when Gold was around $2000, a 200-pip move meant a 1% change in price.
Now, with Gold trading above $3300, the same 1% move is 330 pips.
So, if you're still treating 30–50 pips like a serious target on Gold, you're not adjusting to reality. You're chasing crumbs in a storm.
I’ve written before about why you shouldn't trade Gold for small 30–50 pip moves. It’s no longer a high-probability game — the math doesn’t work. You’re either over-leveraging or underperforming.
________________________________________
📈 3. Price Zones Are Where the Smart Money Trades
Markets aren’t binary. They don’t care about your exact number.
They care about liquidity zones — where enough buyers and sellers are willing to transact in volume.
Here’s how professionals approach it:
• Support isn’t a number — it’s a range.
• Resistance isn’t a line — it’s a battle zone.
When you analyze Gold, think in ranges like 3280–3290 or 3320–3330. This is where price breathes, traps traders, and makes real moves.
Fixed points create unrealistic expectations and false confidence.
________________________________________
🧠 4. Emotion Kills Precision in Real Time
In live trading, you’re not a machine. You’re a human reacting to candles, tweets, and news.
Waiting for an entry at exactly 3352.14 often means:
• You miss the move entirely
• Or you force a bad entry when price front-runs your level
But when you use zones, you give yourself the flexibility to act within context, not dogma.
You can read the candle behavior inside that zone, you can spot exhaustion, you can scale in or out — you become tactical, not rigid.
________________________________________
✅ Final Thoughts: Adapt or Stay Frustrated
If you want to trade Gold successfully in this current market, you must adapt:
• Use zones instead of pin-point levels
• Adjust your expectations to the new pip-to-percentage dynamics
• Respect the volatility and macro backdrop
The traders who will survive are not the ones with the cleanest lines on their charts. They’re the ones who know how to handle chaos with structure, using zones as flexible tools, not false certainties.
🎯 Start thinking in ranges, not numbers. That’s where the edge is.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
What Is Naked Forex Trading, and How Do Traders Use It?What Is Naked Forex Trading, and How Do Traders Use It?
Traders rely on various tools and techniques to trade the forex market. Naked forex trading is one of the oldest and most popular trading approaches among currency traders. This article delves into the details of naked trading, providing insights into its implementation and distinguishing features that set it apart from other analysis techniques.
Understanding Naked Forex Trading
Naked trading is a trading style that involves analysing markets using a clean price chart, meaning one without technical indicators. Traders who use this method make decisions based on real-time price movements and their trading instincts.
Naked trading has its roots in the early days of trading, long before the advent of sophisticated technical analysis tools and indicators. Early traders relied solely on price action and market behaviour to make trading decisions. By stripping away the complexity of modern trading tools, naked trading aims to return to the fundamental principles of trading, emphasising the importance of understanding market psychology and price dynamics.
Core Principles of Naked Forex Trading
Naked forex trading is based on the following principles:
- Price action analysis is the foundation of naked trading, focusing on the examination of asset price movements without the help of technical indicators. Traders rely on bar, line, or Japanese candlestick charts to identify patterns, trends, and key support and resistance levels. By concentrating on real-time price movements, traders aim to make their trading decisions based on how prices behave at specific levels.
- Naked trading emphasises simplicity and clarity as it removes the clutter of numerous trading tools. This approach helps traders maintain a clear view of the market, making it potentially easier to identify trading opportunities. The simplification also reduces cognitive load, enabling traders to focus on the most critical market movements.
- Trader instinct, often referred to as "gut feeling" or "trader's intuition," plays a significant role in naked trading. This instinct is honed over time through experience and the extensive observation of price movements and market behaviour.
Key Techniques and Tools
Mastering price action analysis is crucial in naked trading. These are the four key tools for those who use naked trading.
Candlestick Patterns
Candlestick patterns play a crucial role in naked trading strategy by providing visual representations of price movements over a specified period. Traders look for different price formations to analyse potential market reversals, continuations, or indecisions. Common candlestick patterns include doji, engulfing patterns, hammer, shooting star, and spinning top. Each offers insights into market sentiment and potential future price movements.
Chart Patterns
Chart patterns on price charts indicate potential trend reversals or continuations. Traders using naked trading techniques rely on chart patterns like flags, rounding top/bottom, diamonds, and rectangles to identify key levels where the price is likely to react. These patterns help traders anticipate market movements and plan entry and exit points accordingly.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels are fundamental concepts in naked trading, representing levels the price struggled to break above (resistance) or hold above (support). Traders identify these levels on price charts to anticipate potential price reversals or breakouts. Support and resistance levels are crucial for setting profit targets, placing stop-loss orders, and managing risk.
Trendlines and Channels
Trendlines and channels are used by naked traders to visualise the direction and strength of a trend. Trendlines connect successive higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs (downtrend) on a price chart, helping traders identify trend reversals or confirm trend continuations. Channels are formed by drawing parallel lines to connect highs and lows, creating a channel in which the price typically moves.
Advantages of Naked Forex Trading
Naked trading has many advantages; therefore, it’s still used by traders around the globe. Here are the key benefits of naked forex trading:
- Enhanced Focus and Simplicity: This approach removes market clutter as it offers enhanced focus by eliminating complex technical indicators. Without the distraction of multiple indicators that provide lagging signals, traders may respond more effectively to changes in price movements.
- Improved Market Understanding: By relying on naked trading tools, traders may better understand market behaviour and psychology. Observing price action directly on charts potentially enhances traders' ability to interpret market sentiment, identify key support and resistance levels, and anticipate potential trend reversals or continuations. This hands-on approach fosters a deeper understanding of the nuances of the market and improves trading skills over time.
- Flexibility and Adaptability: Traders are not constrained by specific indicator signals or rigid trading rules. Instead, they can adjust their approach based on real-time price action and evolving market dynamics. This flexibility allows them to take advantage of emerging opportunities and adapt their strategies to potentially mitigate risks.
Challenges and Limitations
Although naked trading can be effective, it has limitations that a trader considers before relying on this approach.
- Learning Curve: As naked forex trading relies heavily on interpreting price action without the assistance of technical indicators, traders may need to dedicate considerable time and effort to mastering candlestick patterns, chart analysis, and understanding market psychology. Developing the skill to interpret price movements accurately demands persistence and consistent practice.
- Emotional Discipline: A notable challenge of naked trading is the absence of clear buy or sell signals provided by indicators, which can lead to heightened emotional responses to market fluctuations. Traders must maintain discipline by adhering to their trading plans, implementing risk management strategies, and avoiding impulsive decisions.
- Market Noise: Navigating market noise is another hurdle in naked trading. Market noise refers to random price fluctuations that obscure meaningful price patterns. Traders need the patience and experience to distinguish between significant price movements and temporary fluctuations.
Practical Application of Naked Forex Trading
Setting up a trading plan is essential for implementing naked forex trading. Traders might use the following rules:
- Define Your Trading Goals: Determine your financial objectives, risk tolerance, and period of trading.
- Select Currency Pairs: Choose currency pairs that align with your trading strategy and offer sufficient liquidity.
- Identify Key Trading Times: Determine optimal times to trade based on market volatility and your availability.
- Establish Entry and Exit Rules: Define criteria for entering trades based on price action signals, such as candlestick patterns or support/resistance levels. Similarly, rules for exiting trades should be established to potentially lock in returns or cut losses.
- Risk Management: Implement risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders and calculating position sizes based on your risk tolerance and account size.
- Review and Adapt: Regularly review your plan to assess its effectiveness and make necessary adjustments based on evolving market conditions and personal trading performance.
Real-Life Examples and Case Studies
Real-life examples and case studies illustrate how naked forex trading principles are applied in practice:
Example 1: Trading Support and Resistance
A trader identifies a currency pair approaching a key support level on the daily chart. They wait for a bullish reversal candlestick pattern, such as dragonfly doji, to form near the support level. They enter a long trade with a stop-loss below the support level and a profit target at the next resistance level.
Example 2: Trend Confirmation
A trader observes a currency pair in a strong downtrend on the hourly chart. They wait for a pullback to a trendline and look for a bearish engulfing pattern to confirm the continuation of the downtrend. They enter a sell trade with a tight stop-loss above the trendline. However, it is difficult to determine the profit target as there are no swing lows nearby.
The Bottom Line
When they understand the naked trading forex strategy, traders may use it in other markets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies*. However, it's important to note that any analysis does not guarantee effective trading, and other factors should be considered alongside chart analysis. Risk management and a proper mindset are essential for long-term consistency.
FAQs
What Is Naked Trading in Forex?
Naked, or price action trading, is a forex trading approach that involves analysing the market using a clean price chart without any technical indicators. Traders relying on this method make decisions based on real-time price movements and their trading instincts rather than past performance. The strategy emphasises identifying key support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and price corrections purely through the observation of bar, line, or candlestick charts.
Can I Trade Without Chart Patterns?
Yes, trading without chart patterns may be possible using alternative methods such as indicator-based strategies, quantitative models, fundamental analysis, or sentiment analysis. These approaches allow traders to analyse the markets based on technical indicators, mathematical algorithms, economic data, or market sentiment.
What Is a Chart Pattern in a Price Action Strategy?
A chart pattern in a price action strategy refers to the specific formations and shapes created by the price movements of an asset, which traders use to analyse future market behaviour. These patterns emerge due to the collective actions of buyers and sellers and can indicate potential trend reversals or continuations. Some common chart patterns include triangles suggesting a consolidation before a breakout, Quasimodo indicating a potential trend reversal, and flags signalling the continuation of an existing trend.
What Is the 5-3-1 Trading Strategy?
The 5-3-1 trading strategy is a disciplined approach designed to help traders focus and improve their trading skills. It involves trading just five currency pairs to reduce complexity and enhance expertise in those markets. Traders then use only three specific strategies to master and consistently apply. Finally, they select one trading timeframe to maintain consistency and avoid confusion.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Price Patterns Every Trader Should KnowLearn how to trade using price patterns! In this video, we cover continuation, reversal, and bi-directional patterns, including flags, wedges, triangles, and more. You'll see schematics, real chart examples, and learn how to combine them with confluence for better setups.
#PriceAction #ChartPatterns #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ForexTrading #CryptoTrading
How to draw support and resistance levels the right way?
1️⃣ Why Are Support and Resistance Levels So Important?
Support and resistance levels show where price has reacted strongly in the past. These are zones where many traders including large players have placed buy or sell orders.
Support = where buyers step in and push price up
Resistance = where sellers step in and push price down
These levels are important because they act like decision zones:
- Price might bounce from these levels
- Or break through and start a new move
- Or even fake out traders before reversing again
Knowing where these levels are gives you an edge:
- You can better time your entries and exits
- You avoid chasing price in the middle of nowhere
- You prepare for market reactions not random guesses
Think of them like traffic lights for the market when price hits them, something important usually happens.
2️⃣ Three Main Types of Support and Resistance
There are 3 key types of support and resistance levels traders commonly use:
- Level-Based: Horizontal zones drawn from key highs and lows
- Pattern-Based: Support/resistance found in chart patterns like triangles, flags, etc.
- Channel-Based: Diagonal trendlines showing support and resistance in a channel
Today, we focus on level-based support and resistance horizontal lines drawn on key price zones.
3️⃣ How to Draw Support and Resistance Levels
Use daily, weekly, or monthly timeframes to find major zones. These higher timeframes give you stronger, more respected levels.
Look for:
- Candle bodies that close and open around the same price
- Strong wicks rejecting a certain level
- Zones where price has bounced multiple times in the past
I often pick:
- The close of a red candle
- The open of the next green candle
These spots usually show where sellers lost control and buyers stepped in — or vice versa.
4️⃣ Timeframes and Their Strength
The higher the timeframe, the stronger the level:
- Monthly = very strong, long-term zones
- Weekly = strong and reliable
- Daily = useful for swing trading
- Lower timeframes (15m, 5m) = more noise, less reliable unless you're day trading or scalping
Pick levels based on your strategy:
- Swing traders = use daily/weekly/monthly
- Scalpers = lower timeframes with extra confluence (volume, structure)
5️⃣ Don’t Use Support/Resistance Alone
Support and resistance are helpful — but not enough by themselves. Always combine them with:
- Market structure (higher highs/lows)
- Volume confirmation
- Indicators or price action signals
You want to watch how price reacts at your levels. Wait for confirmation before making decisions.
6️⃣ Common Mistakes Traders Make
Mistake 1: Drawing too many levels clutters your chart and creates confusion.
Mistake 2: Keeping old levels that have already been broken or invalidated.
Mistake 3: Ignoring volume. Just because price hits a level doesn’t mean it will reverse. You need volume to back the move.
Also:
Don’t enter blindly on breakout, breakouts can fail. Wait for confirmation.
Don’t assume a level is strong just because it’s touched once — look for multiple rejections.
7️⃣ Example: How I Draw Support/Resistance
Let’s say I’m looking at a daily chart.
- I find a red candle that closes at 42,000
- Then a green candle opens at 42,000 and pushes higher
That tells me buyers stepped in at 42,000 — this is a potential support.
I draw my horizontal line across that level.
Then I zoom into 30m or 15m charts to watch price behavior when it comes back to that level.
If price respects it again, I may enter a trade based on the reaction.
This technique gives me more confidence and clarity.
I know where liquidity might be waiting.
I can combine it with indicators or volume tools.
I avoid random trades.
🔄 Summary
Identify a timeframe – Use the monthly, weekly, or daily chart.
Look for two candles – Draw your support or resistance line at the point where one candle closes and the next one opens.
Make sure the level hasn’t been hit yet – This helps you spot areas where liquidity grabs might happen.
Wait for price to reach the level – Once price touches the support or resistance zone, watch how it reacts.
After price touches the level, remove it – Once tested, that level is no longer fresh and should be cleared from your chart.
Support and resistance isn’t magic — but used with confluence, it becomes a powerful guide.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Mastering the ICT Power of 3 concept - How to use it in trading!The financial markets often appear chaotic and unpredictable, but behind the scenes, institutional players operate with clear strategies that shape price action. One such strategy is the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) "Power of 3" model, a framework used to understand and anticipate market cycles through three key phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. This guide will break down each of these phases in detail, explaining how smart money operates and how retail traders can align themselves with the true direction of the market.
What will be discussed?
- The 3 phases
- Examples of the PO3
- How to trade the PO3
- Tips for trading the PO3
The 3 phases
Accumulation
The Accumulation Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model refers to the initial stage of a market cycle where institutional or "smart money" participants quietly build their positions. During this time, price typically moves sideways within a tight range, often showing little to no clear direction. This is intentional. The market appears quiet or indecisive, which is designed to confuse retail traders and keep them out of alignment with the real intentions of the market's larger players.
In this phase, smart money is not looking to move the market dramatically. Instead, they are focused on accumulating long or short positions without drawing attention. They do this by keeping price contained within a consolidation zone. The idea is to gather enough liquidity, often from unsuspecting retail traders entering early breakout trades or trying to trade the range, before making a more aggressive move.
Manipulation
The Manipulation Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model is the second stage that follows accumulation. This phase is where smart money deliberately moves the market in the opposite direction of their intended move to trigger retail stop losses, induce emotional decisions, and create liquidity.
After price has consolidated during accumulation, many retail traders are either already positioned or have orders waiting just outside the range, either stop losses from those trading the range or breakout orders from those anticipating a directional move. The manipulation phase exploits this positioning. Price will often break out of the accumulation range in one direction, appearing to confirm a new trend. This move is designed to look convincing, it might even come with a spike in volume or momentum to draw traders in.
However, this breakout is a false move. It doesn’t represent the true intention of smart money. Instead, it's meant to sweep liquidity, triggering stop losses above or below the range, and then reverse sharply. This stop run provides the liquidity needed for large players to finalize their positions at optimal prices. Once enough liquidity is collected, and retail traders are caught offside, the real move begins.
Distribution
The Distribution Phase in the ICT "Power of 3" model is the final stage of the cycle, following accumulation and manipulation. This is where the true intention of smart money is revealed, and the market makes a sustained, directional move, either bullish or bearish. Unlike the earlier phases, distribution is marked by clear price expansion, increased volatility, and decisive momentum.
After smart money has accumulated positions and shaken out retail traders through manipulation, they have the liquidity and positioning needed to drive the market in their desired direction. The distribution phase is where these positions are "distributed" into the broader market, meaning, institutions begin to offload their positions into the retail flow that is now chasing the move. Retail traders, seeing the strong trend, often jump in late, providing the liquidity for smart money to exit profitably.
This phase is typically what retail traders perceive as the real trend, and in a sense, it is. However, by the time the trend is obvious, smart money has already entered during accumulation and profited from the manipulation. What appears to be a breakout or trend continuation to most retail participants is actually the final leg of the smart money’s strategy. They are now unloading their positions while price continues to expand.
Examples of the Power of 3
How to trade the PO3?
Start by identifying a clear accumulation range. This typically happens during the Asian session or the early part of the London session. Price moves sideways, forming a consolidation zone. Your job here isn’t to trade, but to observe. Draw horizontal lines marking the high and low of the range. These become your key liquidity zones.
Next, anticipate the manipulation phase, which usually occurs during the London session or at the NY open. Price will often break out of the range, triggering stop losses above the high or below the low of the accumulation zone. This move is deceptive, it is not the real trend. Do not chase it. Instead, wait for signs of rejection, such as a sharp reversal after the liquidity grab, imbalance filling, or a shift in market structure on a lower timeframe (like a 1- or 5-minute chart).
Once manipulation has swept liquidity and price starts showing signs of reversing back inside the range or beyond, you now look for a confirmation of the true move, this begins the distribution phase. You enter in the direction opposite of the manipulation move, ideally once price breaks a structure level confirming that smart money has taken control.
For example, if price consolidates overnight, fakes a move to the downside (running sell stops), and then quickly reverses and breaks above a key swing high, that's your signal that the true move is likely up. Enter after the break and retest of structure, using a tight stop loss below the recent low. Your target should be based on liquidity pools, fair value gaps, or higher-timeframe imbalances.
The key to trading the Power of 3 is patience and precision. You're not trying to catch every move, but to wait for the market to complete its cycle of deception and then ride the clean expansion. Ideally, your entry comes just after manipulation, and you hold through the distribution/expansion phase, taking partials at key liquidity levels along the way.
Tips for trading the PO3
1. Learn price movements
Before you can effectively apply the ICT Power of 3 strategy, it’s crucial to have a deep understanding of how price behaves. This means being comfortable identifying market structure, recognizing trend direction, and interpreting candlestick dynamics. Since the Power of 3 is deeply rooted in how price moves in real time, a strong grasp of these basics will give you the confidence to read the market correctly as each phase develops.
2. Analyse multiple timeframes
Although the Power of 3 pattern shows up on lower timeframes, relying on just one can lead to misreads. You’ll gain a clearer picture when you align the short-term view with higher timeframe structure. For example, what appears to be accumulation on the 15-minute chart may simply be a retracement in a larger trend on the 1-hour or daily. By examining multiple timeframes together, you can better identify the true setup and avoid being tricked by noise.
3. Exercise patience
A key part of trading the Power of 3 is knowing when to act, and more importantly, when not to. It’s easy to get impatient during the accumulation or manipulation phases, but entering too early often leads to frustration or losses. True discipline comes from waiting for the expansion or distribution phase, when the market reveals its real direction. This is where the most favorable risk-to-reward setups occur.
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Forex Trading Time Zones: Market Hours and OverlapsForex Trading Time Zones: Market Hours and Overlaps
In the world of forex trading, understanding the dynamics of different time zones is paramount. This article delves into the intricate web of currency trading time zones, exploring the 24-hour cycle, major trading hours, and the nuanced opportunities each presents.
The 24-Hour Cycle of Forex Market Time Zones
The forex market's distinctive feature of being open 24 hours a day, five days a week, is a testament to its unparalleled accessibility, dynamics, and decentralised nature. Unlike traditional financial markets constrained by fixed trading hours, the forex market operates continuously, commencing in Asia on Monday and concluding in North America on Friday.
Major financial centres in different time zones steer the dynamics of the forex market, acting as the primary drivers of market activity during their respective business hours. That complex interplay creates distinct trading periods, each characterised by unique market conditions and opportunities.
Key Forex Session Time Zones
Knowing the trading hours of the major forex trading hours is fundamental for any trader aiming to capitalise on the dynamic nature of the market.
Winter time:
- London Session: From 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM UTC
- New York Session: From 1:00 PM to 10:00 PM UTC
- Sydney Session: From 09:00 PM to 6:00 AM UTC
- Tokyo Session: From 11:00 PM to 8:00 AM UTC
Summer time:
- London Session: From 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM UTC
- New York Session: From 12:00 PM to 9:00 PM UTC
- Sydney Session: From 10:00 PM to 7:00 AM UTC
- Tokyo Session: From 11:00 PM to 8:00 AM UTC
Different Time Zones in Forex Trading Create Opportunities
The diverse forex trading time zones offer a rich tapestry of opportunities, each session presenting distinct characteristics that traders can strategically exploit.
London Session
The London session time provides opportunities for traders to engage in high-liquidity markets. Currency pairs involving the euro (EUR) or the British pound (GBP), such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, tend to be particularly active during this period. The early morning volatility during the London session trading time can be harnessed for quick trades or trend-establishing moves.
New York Session
As the New York session time kicks in, currency pairs involving the US dollar (USD) or other currencies of countries in the same time zone take centre stage. Pairs like USD/MXN and USD/CAD experience heightened volatility and amplified market activity.
Sydney Session
While the Sydney session may exhibit lower volatility, it sets the stage for the day's trading. Currency pairs tied to the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD), like AUD/USD and NZD/USD, can witness initial movements during this period, creating opportunities for strategic positioning.
Tokyo Session
The Tokyo session focuses on the Japanese yen (JPY) pairs, offering traders the chance to tap into the unique characteristics of this market. Currency pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY may see increased activity, presenting opportunities for trend-following or counter-trend strategies.
Session Trading Strategies
The convergence of major financial hubs during specific currency trading time zones creates a unique environment that can be exploited strategically. Let’s examine three strategies for each major forex time zone.
London Session Breakout Strategy
The London Session Breakout strategy is based on the significant increase in trading volume and volatility when the London market opens, specifically between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM UTC (summer time) or 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC (winter time). However, most focus is often placed on the range between 8:00 AM and 9:00 AM summer time or 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM winter time. This surge during the London trading session often leads to notable price movements, particularly in forex pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD, making it an ideal time for breakout strategies.
Entry
- Traders monitor the early London trading hours. The idea is to look for a specific range with clear high and low boundaries during this time.
- They set buy stop orders slightly above the high of this range and sell stop orders slightly below the low, aiming to capture the breakout direction.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses are strategically placed slightly below the most recent swing low for buy positions and vice versa, offering potential protection against false breakouts.
Take Profit
- Some traders may prefer to close the position as the New York session begins, as reversals are common during this session overlap.
- Alternatively, trailing stops might be employed to take advantage of extended price movements if the trend continues strongly after the breakout.
New York Reversal Strategy
The New York Reversal strategy exploits the heightened volatility and liquidity that occur at the start of the New York session. While there isn’t a perfect correlation, it’s common to see the initial London trend extended early into the New York session before a reversal, usually between 12:30 PM and 2:00 PM UTC summer time and 1:30 PM and 2 PM UTC winter time. This strategy is particularly effective due to the influx of trading activity and market orders when the US markets open.
Entry
- Traders often monitor the market around the first couple of hours of the New York forex session time, looking for signs of reversal. This may be a divergence between a price and a momentum indicator, a reaction from a significant support or resistance level, a candlestick or chart pattern, and so on.
- Once the trader has confirmation that the London trend may be reversing, they enter a position.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses are generally placed just beyond the nearest swing high or low. This helps potentially protect against losses if the anticipated reversal does not occur.
Take Profit
- Traders frequently set profit targets at significant support or resistance levels established during the London session.
- Alternatively, traders might trail their stop loss to follow the market movement and maximise potential gains.
Tokyo Volatility Breakout Strategy
The Tokyo Volatility Breakout strategy leverages the increased trading activity and liquidity at the start of the Tokyo session time. This strategy is best suited to JPY pairs like USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY, which often see significant price movements due to the influx of market participants at Japan’s forex market open time.
Between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM UTC summer time (8:00 PM and 9:00 PM UTC winter time), volume and liquidity dry up significantly as the New York session closes. 10:00 PM and 11:00 PM UTC summer time (9:00 PM and 10:00 PM winter time) sees some activity as Sydney session time begins, but the start of the Tokyo session forex time, between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM, can kickstart a new trend and break out from the typical ranging conditions from the previous few hours.
Entry
- Traders often monitor the market and look for breakouts as the Tokyo session begins.
- Bollinger Bands can be used to identify these breakouts, typically characterised by the bands squeezing together before the price closes strongly outside the upper or lower band, potentially indicating the start of a trend.
Stop Loss
- Stop losses are generally placed beyond the nearest swing high or low or beyond the opposite side of the Bollinger Band. This helps potentially protect against losses if the breakout does not result in a sustained trend.
Take Profit
- Profit targets are often set at significant support or resistance levels established in previous sessions.
- Alternatively, positions might be closed at the start of the London session (around 7:00 AM - 8:00 AM UTC) to avoid potential reversals that occur with the increased liquidity and trading volume as European markets open.
Tailoring Your Trading Schedule to Forex Currency Time Zones
Crafting an effective trading schedule involves a personalised approach, taking into account a trader's individual location and trading style objectives.
Different Trading Styles: Maximising Opportunities
Forex time zones often determine specific forex rate behaviours. For day traders, the volatility and liquidity during overlapping activity can provide ideal conditions for executing rapid trades. The heightened volatility and liquidity are even more advantageous for scalpers seeking to capitalise on rapid price movements by executing trades with precision.
Overlapping sessions also often mark key points where trends may continue or reverse. Traders employing trend-following or breakout-based strategies can capitalise on that momentum.
Swing traders, on the other hand, who aim to capture trends over a slightly longer timeframe, may take advantage of the distinct characteristics of individual sessions, such as the so-called stability of the Sydney session or the high volatility of the London session.
Economic Events and News Releases
Traders also consider the timing of major data releases and align that with their specific geographic location. During the London session, major European economic indicators and policy announcements can set the tone. Then, the market may respond to data from the United States that can significantly influence USD pairs, followed by economic reports from the Asia-Pacific region. The interconnectedness of the world economy can have cascading effects on currency values across the globe.
Currency Market Correlations
Currency pair correlations exhibit dynamic shifts depending on the timing and may lead to specific patterns. For example, the correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/USD can shift throughout the trading day, starting from positive during the Tokyo session and then shifting into negative during European and New York trading hours. Traders can leverage correlation analysis as a powerful tool for making informed trading decisions.
Final Thoughts
Navigating the dynamic world of forex trading requires a multifaceted understanding of the market's 24-hour cycle, the overlapping of major trading sessions, and the intricate interplay of economic events and currency correlations.
FAQ
What Are the 4 Forex Sessions?
The forex market operates 24 hours a day, divided into four main sessions based on key financial centres: the Sydney session forex time (10:00 PM to 7:00 AM UTC in the summer and 9:00 PM to 6:00 AM UTC in the winter), the Tokyo session forex time (11:00 PM to 8:00 AM UTC in the summer and winter), the London session forex time (7:00 AM to 4:00 PM UTC in the summer and 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM UTC in the winter), and the New York session forex time (12:00 PM to 9:00 PM UTC in the summer and 1:00 PM to 10:00 PM UTC in the winter).
When Does the London Session Start?
The London session starts at 7:00 AM UTC during summer and at 8:00 AM UTC during winter due to daylight saving time adjustments. This session is crucial for its high liquidity and significant overlap with other major sessions.
What Time Is the New York-London Session Overlap?
The overlap between the New York trading session time and the London session occurs from 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM UTC in summer and from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM UTC in winter.
Do Tokyo and London Sessions Overlap?
The Tokyo and London sessions do not overlap significantly. The Tokyo session ends at 8:00 AM UTC, while the London session starts at 7:00 AM UTC in the summer. The minimal overlap from 7:00 AM to 8:00 AM UTC sees limited trading activity. In winter, sessions don’t overlap.
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Understanding How Dark Pool Buy Side Institutions AccumulateThe SPY is the most widely traded ETF in the world. Its price or value movement reflects the S&P 500 index value. It doesn't reflect the buying or selling of the SPY.
You must use volume indicators and accumulation/distribution indicators that indicate whether the Buy Side Institutions are in accumulation mode, rotation to lower inventory to buy a different ETF or other instrument, OR distribution due to mutual fund and pension fund redemption demands.
ETFs are one of the fastest growing industries in the US and around the world. There are more than 4000 Exchange Traded Derivatives. There are ETDs for just about anything you might wish to invest in long term or trade short term.
If you trade the SPY, it is important to study the S&P 500 index, its top 10 components, how their values are changing, and resistance and support levels. SPY will mirror the S&P 500 closely but not precisely.
ETFs are built with a variety of types of investments and always have a TRUST FUND, in which the components of that ETF inventory are held. The ETF Inventory is updated and adjusted monthly or sooner as needed to maintain the integrity of the ETF price value to the value of the S&P 500 index. Rules and regulations require that the ETF SPY be closely aligned to the S&P 500. So inventory adjustments are going on regularly.
When trading the SPY, you must remember that it is not buyers and sellers of the ETF that change its price. Rather, it is the S&P 500 top components' price fluctuations that change the SPY price value.
This is a tough concept to accept and understand. When you do understand it and apply that knowledge to your trading of the SPY, you will be far more profitable. This takes time. You also need to develop Spatial Pattern Recognition Skills so that when a pattern appears, you can recognize it instantly and act accordingly in your trading.
Today we cover the resistance levels above the current price value. That resistance is likely to slow down the rapid gains in price value over the past few weeks. The ideal would be a sideways trend to allow corporations time to adjust to the new normal of whatever tarrifs are impacting their imports and exports.
Then, the S&P500 move out of that sideways trend would result in a stronger Moderately Uptrending Market Condition.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT