3 Best Fibonacci Tools For Forex Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss 3 classic Fibonacci tools you must know for trading different financial markets.
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement
Fib.Retracement is my favorite fib.tool. It is aimed to identify strong horizontal support and resistance levels within the impulse leg .
We draw this tool based on the high and low of the impulse (from wick to wick) and it shows us POTENTIALLY strong structure levels determined by Fibonacci numbers .
Common Fib.Retracement levels are: 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of an application of a fibonacci retracement tool based on a bearish impulse leg on EURUSD.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Extension
Fib.Extension indicates strong horizontal support and resistance levels beyond the impulse . Similar to Fib.Retracement tool, Fib.Extension is drawn relying on impulse's high and low (from wick to wick) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong structure levels where the consequent impulses may complete based on Fibonacci number.
Common Fib.Extension levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of fibonacci extension tool based on USDJPY based on a bullish impulse leg.
3️⃣ Fibonacci Channel
Fib.Channel shows strong vertical supports and resistances (trend lines) within the channel . The tool is drawn based on the trend line of a valid parallel channel (based on wicks) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong trend lines from where the market may retrace .
The trend lines within Fib.Channel rest on 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 Fib.Levels .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of a fibonacci channel on USDCHF.
Remember that Fibonacci's are simply tools in a toolbox. In order to use them properly, you need to build a trading system around them, test it and confirm its efficiency.
Trend Analysis
Ultimate guide on Williams Fractals in crypto tradingIn today’s article we will reveal one of the most powerful tools in cryptocurrency trading which often ignored even by top crypto traders. We are talking about fractals. Best crypto traders just use fractal levels to find support and resistance and trade bounces and breakouts. Spoiler - the fractal breakout is a right way to use it, but support and resistances aren’t. A lot of people are using fractals even for their algorithmic trading bots. We remember when encoding our first automated crypto trading bot the fractals were used for support and resistance detection. It’s not surprise that it was not one of the profitable crypto trading strategies.
Now we researched a different ways to use fractals and assume that we have the great expertise in it to share our knowledge with you. It’s not a top secret that even Skyrex ai trading bot is using fractals in detecting potential trading opportunities. Please, read this article carefully and you will know build your own cryptocurrency trading strategy or even apply it to automated cryptocurrency trading. Let’s go!
Initiating fractal
First of all let’s understand what is the fractal and how it looks like. Fractal is not just a sequence of candles like it can seems on the first look. This is the change in behavior of traders on the market. When you see the fractal on the chart, this is the turning point where a lot of traders were too worried that current trend can be stopped here.
Technically fractal is very simple. If we talk about upfractal it’s just a consequence of bars where the central bar have the highest high than two preceding and two following bars. On the chart below you can see different fractal’s shapes. Don’t worry about it that much because on the TradingView you can find an indicator which find all fractals. Even if you build automated trading bots you can just copy the code of this indicator.
How to trade using fractal
Let’s go to the most interesting part of an article. How to execute trades using fractal? You will be surprised but it’s super easy. Let’s take a look at the picture and try to understand the concept of fractal start, signal and stop.
Fractal start is the fractal which precedes the another one fractal in the opposite direction
Fractal signal is the fractal which follows the fractal in the opposite direction
Now when we have this two fractal combination we can place our sell stop one tick below the fractal signal and go short if market reach this level. Now it’s time to place the stop loss. When your trade is open you shall chose the highest fractal from the last two and place stop loss order one tick above. Here you can have two cases A and B. Look carefully and try to find these formations on the real charts.
Conclusion
Next time we will look inside the fractal and try to understand how to trade during sideways. I think today you could understand that fractal trading is good in trend markets, but it’s not profitable during sideways. Price will hit your order every time and hit stop loss many times before the true trend move. For sure fractal breakout trade guarantees that you will not miss the big trend move, but you will have multiple losing trades in the range bounded market. Next time we will discuss how to avoid it.
The 3-Step Method For High-Quality AnalysisIn this video I give you the 3-step method I use to do my analysis.
By incorporating these steps, it is also how I do my top-down analysis. You can think of it as a checklist as well.
First, I have my Bias, which determines where I believe price is drawn to. For example in the case of SMC/ICT Concepts, we observe where the liquidity is in the market and use that to frame where price is likely going to go to sooner or later.
Secondly, I have my Narrative, which is on a lower timeframe, and paints the picture of HOW price is going to form in order to initiate the move to that price target. This usually includes more engineered liquidity on lower timeframes, and manipulation to happen.
Thirdly, I have my Confirmation, which is where I want to enter a trade. This is the lowest of the three timeframes, and is the final point in which I will frame a trade setup. Usually I will look for the exact same things I look for in my Bias and Narrative, but on this timeframe. I also tend to include the factor of time, such as Killzones, Seasonality, and News Drivers.
Note that the timeframes can be anything you want them to be, and you are not restricted from moving from timeframe to timeframe. But, the important thing is to be consistent with WHERE you believe price is going, HOW you think it may get there (this can change as price forms), and again WHERE you are going to enter a trade.
- R2F
Three of the Best MACD Trading StrategiesThree of the Best MACD Trading Strategies
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is more than just a mouthful—it's a versatile trading indicator that has stood the test of time. This article unpacks the intricacies of this indicator and dives deep into three specific strategies that leverage the MACD with other powerful tools like the Stochastic Oscillator and Hull Moving Averages. Read on to sharpen your trading skills and enhance your toolkit.
Understanding the MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is a momentum indicator developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It is designed to identify changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price. It’s composed of three main components: the MACD line (blue), the signal line (orange), and the histogram.
The MACD line is calculated by subtracting a long-term exponential moving average (EMA) from a short-term EMA. The signal line is a 9-day EMA of this line. When these two lines cross, it often suggests a potential entry or exit point. The histogram represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line, offering further insights into market momentum.
When creating an MACD strategy, indicators like the Stochastic and moving averages are often used. However, many also use simple price action alongside the MACD. Below, we’ll cover three strategies that use these indicators and price action to find and exploit market opportunities. If you’d like to follow along, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform, where you’ll find each tool discussed here waiting for you.
MACD Stochastic Strategy
The MACD Stochastic strategy utilises both the MACD and the Stochastic Oscillator to enhance trade decision-making. While the MACD is predominantly a trend-following momentum indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator is used to gauge overbought (above 80) or oversold (below 20) conditions. The objective of this combined MACD oscillator strategy is to look for concurring signals from both indicators within a few candles of each other, achieving more reliable entries and exits.
Entry
In a bullish entry, traders often look for the MACD line to cross above the signal line.
Concurrently, the Stochastic Oscillator should cross above 20 from an oversold area.
In a bearish entry, the MACD line should cross below the signal line. Similarly, the Stochastic Oscillator should cross below 80 from an overbought area.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are typically positioned above a nearby swing point for bearish entries and below a swing point for bullish entries.
Take Profit
Profit-taking is usually considered at nearby support levels for bearish positions and resistance levels for bullish positions.
Alternatively, some traders may opt to exit the trade when a MACD crossover in the opposite direction occurs.
MACD with Hull Moving Averages Strategy
The blending of MACD and Hull Moving Averages (HMA) aims to refine the basic MACD moving average strategy by reducing lag and improving responsiveness. This combination is often cited as one of the best MACD trading strategies, leveraging the strengths of both indicators. The Hull Moving Averages used here are the 21-period and 50-period HMAs. Just like with the MACD, traders look for a crossover event, but in this case, both from the MACD and the HMA and preferably within close proximity of each other.
Entry
For bullish prospects, traders may look for the MACD line to cross above the signal line around the same time the 21-period HMA crosses above the 50-period HMA.
Conversely, in bearish positions, the MACD line should cross below the signal line close to when the 21-period HMA crosses below the 50-period HMA.
Stop Loss
Traders often set stop losses either above or below a nearby swing point.
An alternative approach could be to place the stop loss just beyond the 50-period HMA.
Take Profit
Traders commonly consider taking profits at nearby support (short) or resistance (long) levels.
Another approach may be to close the position when an opposite crossover event occurs in the HMAs.
MACD Histogram Divergence with Candlestick Patterns Strategy
When it comes to the best MACD for day trading setups, incorporating its histogram with candlestick patterns, such as doji, hammer, and engulfing candles, can offer compelling insights. This MACD histogram strategy revolves around spotting divergences between the histogram and price action, followed by confirmation via specific candlestick formations.
Divergence Criteria
A divergence occurs when price action makes higher highs while the histogram makes lower highs, or vice versa.
Entry
Traders might seek a bullish entry on the close of a hammer or bullish engulfing candle when a bullish divergence is observed on the histogram.
For bearish entries, the close of a hammer or bearish engulfing candle following a bearish divergence is often considered.
While a MACD crossover is not essential, some traders prefer to wait for this additional confirmation.
Stop Loss
Stop-loss levels may be placed above a nearby swing point for bearish positions and below it for bullish ones. Given that a reversal has not yet been confirmed, traders may prefer a slightly wider stop loss.
Take Profit
Take-profit levels are often set at nearby support (short) or resistance (long) levels.
Another option is to exit the trade after a MACD crossover in the opposite direction occurs.
The Bottom Line
Mastering the MACD can significantly bolster your trading toolkit. By combining it with other indicators like the Stochastic Oscillator and Hull Moving Averages, traders can refine their strategies for more nuanced market entries and exits. These methods may not be a one-size-fits-all solution, but they do offer compelling approaches worth testing. If you're eager to put these strategies into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, where you can access a range of tools to optimise your trading experience.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave TheoryGreetings, fellow traders. In this article, we'll be reassessing our annual Elliott Wave counts and going deeper into interpreting Bitcoin's current decade cycle. I'll make sure to segment each part by drawing insights from the previous cycles, also employing the Elliott Wave Theory, and integrating major timeline events to bolster my perspective on Bitcoin's potential trajectory in the upcoming cycle. The wave theory will help neutralize many of the irrational thoughts that other analysts may have that just show straight arrows to the upside. This thesis helps you get a better understanding of where pullbacks and areas of high strength (wave 3 impulses) may occur. Remember, the wave theory will never be perfect in painting the picture, but it will help you be positioned as best as possible with proper invalidation levels.
One of the most significant phenomena witnessed in the current financial market landscape is Bitcoin's adherence to a notably algorithmic parabolic trend, where cycles persist in a compounded manner in terms of percentages. This raises the crucial question: "Can we expect all past cycles to mirror the current one?" Answering this is very challenging. However, Bitcoin has one of the strongest strengths against all other coins, which is price history. Fundamentals attached, Bitcoin has been extremely resilient against major events (with wild swings), but the overall trend has remained in tact for over a decade. This indicates not only strength, but true adoption.
We must discern whether the price action will evolve into something new or continue the pattern of echoing past cycles (fractals). The most effective method for interpreting Bitcoin's price movements is through the logarithmic chart that is presented in the chart above.
When examining past cycles through the lens of only fractals (as that is how it has been for the past decade), the most effective approach to understanding the present cycle is by conceptualizing it as a sequence of nested '1-2' counts. In simpler terms, experiencing a succession of 1-2/1-2/1-2 patterns might lead to either optimistic expectations or impending disappointment. This ambiguity prompts consideration of an alternative bearish perspective, elaborated upon subsequently. Keep in mind, there's always room for firsts, meaning that the failure of the fractal pattern is always a possibility. Again, this idea is further explained in the bearish alternative explanation below.
Bearish Alternative:
For a more rational approach, the Elliott Wave Theory also suggests alternative pathways. One narrowed down scenario would be that the cycle has now matured, suggesting for a more maturing market with more complexity in corrective types (patterns).
The logarithmic chart may indicate a deceleration in the macro timeframe, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently in a maturity phase. Its role as a store of value to say the least. To simply put, the corrections will be far more controlled as investors create larger distribution patterns through the timeline and create demand/sell zones. Price maturity, a concept commonly observed in stock models, implies that markets do not move linearly and eventually reach an endpoint, including in price action. Utilizing the Elliott Wave Theory, we can generate one alternative count that shows the whole cycle is now possibly in a larger 1-2 of some sort:
1. The fact that we have a possible WXYXZ corrective pattern for the 2021-2023 bear market, this may indicate this is part of something larger. Usually, you will see wave 2's have a simple ABC/WXY type patterns.
2. This speculation can then lead us to believe that we could be part of a larger corrective pattern, most likely as a flat pattern now.
3. Consequently, this insight aids in forecasting that we are entering into the new phase of 'market maturity,' or what I like to term as the "flattening of the curve theory."
We could debate endlessly about the next bear market for Bitcoin, but the undeniable truth is that over the past 15 years, the market has proven its resilience against political turmoil, hacking attempts, and regulatory crackdowns.
It's remarkable to realize that aside from halvings, forks, and institutional adoption, there haven't been any significant bullish events/catalysts. This speaks volumes about Bitcoin's strength. There wasn't any single groundbreaking moment or major catalyst for each bull run. Instead, it was a series of interconnected events that sustained that momentum, leaving it to us as investors to identify distribution points.
Chronicle of a Foretold Pump/DumpPump/Dump schema:
Discrete Share accumulation.
Broadcasted Triggering Event (news, rumors, forums, etc).
Gather the mass of "Bagholders".
Dump all the load.
Pocket the quick profit.
I am not a fan of " meme stocks " because they're very much like penny stocks, prone to pump/dump schemes. How legal or illegal is this practice?, it is not us to decide, there are authorities who are supposed to regulate these behaviors.
Regardless of the morality of a it we can analyze the radiography of the move. Using the volume bars feature, you can see "big fat" candles on the accumulation phase, the "rumor" phase where the "roaring kitty" name was heard in the news, the spike and immediately took the stock to a quick profit of +120% overnight, and the fade phase, where the only thing that remained at the end was the frozen smile of the hopeful bagholders with a fading volume.
#LearnToEarn.
Be careful where you put your money, trading and investing requires knowledge of the company, its balance sheet, fundamentals and/or technical metrics. Don't follow the crowd, else you'll end up in the slaughter house. There's no free lunch in Wall St.
Let's remember this quote: "The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." Jesse Livermore.
Be greedy when others are fearful - © Warren BuffettAs the cryptocurrency market gears up for a potential alt season, savvy investors are positioning themselves to capitalize on the gains of altcoins. This article will explore six promising altcoins and the significance of sector diversification in maximizing returns.
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful, Fearful When Others Are Greedy:
This timeless adage by Warren Buffett highlights the importance of contrarian investing. During alt seasons, when the market is euphoric and prices are rising, it's crucial to maintain a level head and avoid overextending. Conversely, when the market is in a downtrend and fear is prevalent, it's an opportunity to accumulate undervalued assets.
Top 6 Altcoins for Alt Season:
Dogecoin (DOGE): Forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, DOGE is poised for a breakout. The triangle's squeeze indicates a potential surge in price. Respecting the ascending trend and avoiding new lows suggests an upward breakout.
Sector: Meme Coin
Chainlink (LINK): With an accumulation period spanning 518 days, LINK is primed for a significant pump. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the potential breakout, adhering to the golden rule of accumulation. The ideal shakeout beneath the accumulation range followed by price appreciation reinforces the bullish outlook.
Sector: Oracle
Optimism (OP): Trading within an ascending channel and consistently respecting the lows, OP exhibits strong bullish momentum. The pattern and price action suggest a continuation of the uptrend.
Sector: Layer 2 Scaling Solution
Immutable X (IMX): Breaking above local highs and retesting the upper resistance trendline, IMX confirms a trend reversal to the bullish side. This price action signifies a shift in market sentiment.
Sector: NFT Marketplace
Avalanche (AVAX): Coiling within a descending wedge (bullish pattern), AVAX experienced a shakeout below a crucial support level ($9) before resuming its upward trajectory. Respecting old support levels is essential.
Sector: Layer 1 Blockchain
VeChain (VET): Epitomizing a textbook bullish run, VET adheres strictly to the ascending trend. Each cycle consists of price appreciation, accumulation, and further growth.
Sector: Supply Chain Management
Sector Diversification:
Diversifying across sectors is crucial, as different sectors tend to perform differently based on market trends and events. For instance, during periods of DeFi dominance, DeFi-focused altcoins may outperform. Conversely, when NFT mania takes hold, NFT marketplace tokens could surge.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Margin? Lots? Spread? What are they?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Today we are going to cover terms such as Margin, Lot size, Spread and What are they.
Forex trading is a dynamic and potentially lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its own set of terminology and jargon that can be intimidating for beginners. Understanding these terms is crucial for aspiring traders to navigate the forex market effectively and make informed decisions.
Margin
One of the fundamental concepts in forex trading is margin, which refers to the amount of money required to open and maintain a trading position. Margin allows traders to control larger positions with a relatively small amount of capital, amplifying both potential profits and losses. It's important for traders to understand margin requirements and manage their leverage carefully to avoid excessive risk.
Lot Size
Another key concept is lots, which represent the size of a trading position in forex. Standard lots typically consist of 100,000 units of the base currency, while mini lots and micro lots represent 10,000 and 1,000 units, respectively. Lot size determines the potential profit or loss of a trade, with larger lots leading to greater fluctuations in account equity. If you are more comfortable with smaller lot size, you can even go on to nano lots in 100 unit of currency.
Spread
Spread is another term commonly used in forex trading, referring to the difference between the bid and ask prices of a currency pair. The bid price is the price at which traders can sell a currency pair, while the ask price is the price at which they can buy it. The spread represents the cost of executing a trade and can vary depending on market conditions and liquidity.
There are different types of spreads encountered in forex trading, including fixed spreads and variable spreads. Fixed spreads remain constant regardless of market conditions, providing traders with certainty about trading costs. On the other hand, variable spreads fluctuate in response to market volatility, widening during times of high activity and narrowing during periods of low activity.
Understanding these trading terms and jargon is essential for beginners to develop a solid foundation in forex trading. By mastering concepts such as margin, lots, spread, and different types of spreads, aspiring traders can make more informed decisions and effectively manage their risk in the dynamic and fast-paced world of forex.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Learn What is Inducement and Trap in Smart Money Concepts SMC
Smart Money Concepts can be applied for the identification of trend reversal in Forex and Gold trading.
In this article, we will discuss how to apply basic SMC techniques : trap and inducement to identify early reversal signs. We will study the important theory and go through real market examples on XAUUSD chart.
Imagine that there is a strong historical resistance on a price chart.
Because the price reacted to that strongly in the past, many sellers will place selling orders on that in future, anticipating a similar reaction.
Placing short trades, their stop losses will lie above the resistance.
In case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance,
sellers will be stopped out from their short trades and close their positions in loss.
After the violation of a resistance, according to the rules, it should turn into support . Many traders will place their buy orders there, anticipating a bullish continuation.
Bearish violation of such a support will stop out the buyers as well.
Such a price action will be called an inducement and a bullish trap.
With that, smart money grab the liquidity both from the buyers and from the sellers.
After that, with a high probability, the market will drop .
Bullish violation of an all-time-high on Gold can easily be a bullish trap.
To confirm that, the price should simply break and close below a broken horizontal resistance.
That will confirm a local bearish reversal.
With a bullish trap and inducement, smart money are quietly placing HUGE SELLING ORDERS , making the retail traders close short trades in loss (buy their positions) and buy from the broken structure, providing them the liquidity.
The ability to recognize the traps will let you understand real intentions of smart money and trade with them.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
*********************************************************************
Risk Management Guide for Beginner TradersHello traders.
In this video, I delve into the fundamental principles of risk management tailored specifically for beginner traders entering the world of financial markets. I start by emphasizing the importance of understanding risk and its implications on trading outcomes. By setting clear goals and objectives, traders can align their risk management strategies with their investment aspirations.
We explore practical risk management tools such as stop loss orders, which act as a safety net to limit potential losses on trades. Calculating position sizes based on risk tolerance and stop loss levels ensures traders are not overexposed to any single trade. Continuous monitoring and review of trading performance enable adjustments to risk parameters in response to changing market conditions.
I also shared some tools that can be used to help make the process of calculating risk efficient and accurate. By mastering these risk management techniques, beginner traders can safeguard their capital and embark on their trading journey with confidence and resilience.
Volumes. Why every trader should be able to work with them.The third “stream” of incoming real data, which simply cannot be ignored when analyzing a chart, is volumes. I’ll try to explain why the third stream, what are the first two.
On any chart of a trading instrument there are two scales, price and time. These are two real and independent incoming data streams.
All Technical Analysis studies them inside and out.
Price behavior is studied in the form of graphic figures, support/resistance levels, candlestick analysis and patterns, trend lines and channels, the movement of waves of price movement, using indicators, Renko charts, tic-tac-toe, etc. and so on.
The time scale is divided into seasonality, quarters, trading sessions, sessions for hours before and after lunch, and simply into hours and minutes of possible manipulations (in ICT smartmoney, for example, Kill zones, macros).
I would call volumes the third stream of data, the “3rd scale on the chart.”
This is an independent and independent flow of data about the turnover of money, or more precisely, contracts traded at a certain time and at a certain price.
All indicators and volume analysis tools do not depend on price and time in the direct sense. They work with their data coming from the exchange.
A clear example... Any oscillator, for example, depends on the price, is calculated using a formula based on the price value, and produces a certain “averaged” option.” The cumulative delta curve is constructed based on data on the number of contracts traded from the exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price value; it has its own data.
Volumes also include not only analysis using various indicators and clusters. And the ability to work with COT reports, open interest and other data from CME. This is also data on contracts traded by different groups of participants.
And understanding how options work, all markets are closely related and influence each other. There are many complex risk hedging designs. Nobody wants to lose money.
And I think ignoring this data flow and not being able to work with it is, at the very least, stupid.
And simply, isn’t it interesting to look inside a candle or figure to see what’s really going on there? The price is in a “triangle or sideways”, accumulation/distribution is taking place, but is anything really happening there? Are you waiting for a rollback to imbalance (FVG), but is there this imbalance there? Are you waiting for a reaction to a level, “liquidity withdrawal”, order block, but is there something or someone inside the reaction or not?
By the way, I don’t know the fourth data stream, if you know, please let me know. I'll be happy to study it.
I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.
Trade Smart with TradingView’s Volume FootprintTradingView has just introduced an innovative feature on their charts known as the Volume Footprint . This tool represents a significant advancement in chart analysis, offering a detailed view of trading activity and volume at specific price levels. Are you interested in gaining an early advantage by becoming one of the initial traders to master this new tool ?
• I'm thrilled to share with you a fantastic new feature from TradingView : the Volume Footprint. This powerful charting tool gives us a visual representation of trading volume distribution across various price levels for each candle within a specified timeframe. It's a game-changer, offering deeper insights to help us pinpoint areas of high liquidity and significant trading activity.
• The Volume Footprint is available to those with Premium and higher-tier plans. It leverages data from multiple lower timeframes of the current symbol for historical calculations. Initially, it requests 1-second data, and once this is exhausted, it moves to the next higher timeframe. Consequently, as we delve further into history, the requested timeframe increases, which may reduce the accuracy of volume distribution.
• This tool determines whether trades are buy volumes or sell volumes by analyzing the direction of price movement. If the current bar closes higher than it opens, it's a buy volume. Conversely, if it closes lower, it's a sell volume. If the close equals the open, the volume direction follows that of the previous bar.
• One of the standout features of the Volume Footprint is its ability to identify market balance and imbalance. A balanced market indicates an equilibrium between supply and demand, resulting in stable prices. An imbalanced market, however, shows a significant disparity between supply and demand, leading to pronounced price movements.
• The Volume Footprint helps us understand market behavior, such as optimal entry points, potential price movements, and areas where supply and demand are balanced or imbalanced. It's an excellent tool for gauging market sentiment and spotting trading opportunities.
• Additionally, the Volume Footprint allows us to identify failed auctions. These occur when there's an unsuccessful attempt to set a new price, resulting in a return to previous price levels. Recognizing failed auctions can help us anticipate market reversals, validate support and resistance levels, and refine our trading strategies to capitalize on shifting market conditions.
• Another intriguing feature is Delta divergence, which refers to a discrepancy between price movement and the total delta value. Traders often use delta divergence in footprint charts to signal potential reversals or changes in market direction.
• Finally, the Volume Footprint lets us spot excess trades at extreme price levels. According to auction market theory, prices rise until demand dries up and fall until supply is exhausted. This is known as a completed auction. Sometimes, though, an incomplete auction occurs, where the volume of trades at the maximum or minimum price level differs slightly. This may indicate that the trend isn't complete, suggesting that prices might continue moving in the current direction until the auction concludes.
• In conclusion, the Volume Footprint is an invaluable tool that provides deep insights into market dynamics and trading opportunities. It's a fantastic addition to any trader’s toolkit, and I can't wait to explore and utilize this feature in my trading journey. Happy trading!
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
The Source : www.tradingview.com
How Do Grid Trading Strategies Work?How Do Grid Trading Strategies Work?
Grid trading stands as a distinctive strategy within the trading realm, offering a structured approach to navigating market volatility. By strategically placing buy and sell orders at predefined intervals, this method eschews the need to determine the market direction, instead harnessing the inherent fluctuations of the market. This FXOpen article delves into the intricacies of grid trading, illuminating its mechanics and the nuanced grid strategies traders use.
Understanding Grid Trading
Grid trading is a strategic approach to forex and other financial markets, where traders place buy and sell orders at predetermined intervals above and below a base price, creating a grid of orders. This method does not require traders to determine market directions but instead relies on market volatility to generate returns. The essence of grid trading lies in its relative simplicity and in leveraging the natural ebb and flow of price movements.
At its core, grid trading involves setting up a sequence of orders that are triggered when prices hit certain levels. The strategy is designed to take advantage of normal price volatility within a specific range or trend by entering and exiting trades at predetermined levels. For instance, a trader sets up a trend-following grid on EUR/USD, placing buy orders above the current price at regular intervals and sell orders below. As the trend progresses, orders are activated, and the trader aims to capture returns from these movements.
A critical advantage of grid trading is its flexibility. It can be adapted to suit various market conditions, whether the market is trending or moving sideways. In trending markets, the grid can be adjusted to follow the trend, potentially increasing returns as the price moves in a specific direction. In range-bound markets, the grid capitalises on price reversals at each level.
However, grid trading also requires careful risk management. The nature of the strategy means that without proper oversight, adverse market movements can lead to significant losses. Setting stop-loss orders for individual trades and monitoring overall exposure are essential practices to mitigate these risks.
Grid Trading: An Example
Consider a trader who decides to employ a grid trading strategy on the EUR/USD pair, observing that it has been fluctuating within a tight range of 1.1000 to 1.1100. The trader selects 1.1050 as the base price, identifying it as the midpoint of the current trading range.
To set up the grid, the trader places buy orders at intervals below the base price, for example, at 1.1040, 1.1030, and 1.1020. Simultaneously, sell orders are placed at intervals above the base price, at 1.1060, 1.1070, and 1.1080. The strategy here is to capitalise on the currency pair's natural price movements within this established range.
As the price fluctuates, hitting each buy order triggers a purchase at a lower price, aiming to sell as the price rebounds. Conversely, each sell order executes a sale at a higher price, buying back the short position as the price drops again.
A stop loss is typically set beyond the range’s upper and lower bound, while profits may be taken incrementally as the price fluctuates around the midpoint. Properly managed, this approach allows the trader to systematically generate returns in a range-bound market without needing to determine the direction of the next price movement.
Grid Trading Strategies
Broadly speaking, grid trading strategies come in two flavours: range-based and trend-following. Below, we explore both. To gain an in-depth understanding, consider applying the steps below on real-time charts in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Range-Based Grid Strategy
In a range-bound forex or cryptocurrency* market, where prices oscillate between a defined high and low, a basic range-based grid strategy might be quite effective. This approach leverages the market's natural tendency to fluctuate within bounds, allowing traders to capitalise on small, consistent movements rather than large trends.
Identifying a trading range is the first step, where the trader marks the highest and lowest prices over a certain period. From this range, the midpoint is determined, serving as a reference for setting up buy and sell limit orders.
Typically, traders might choose to place four or five orders on either side of the midpoint, though some may select more. The spacing between orders is calculated by dividing the distance from the midpoint to the range's high or low by the number of orders, adjusting the spacing slightly.
Entry
Buy orders are placed below the midpoint at intervals determined by the spacing calculation.
Sell orders are set above the midpoint, also spaced according to the initial calculation.
Stop Loss
Stop losses for each order are placed just beyond the range's established high or low to protect against significant market moves outside the expected range.
Take Profit
According to the theory, traders prefer to take profits as price reaches the opposing order.
Trend-Following Grid Strategy
In a trend-following grid strategy, the primary goal is to align with the market's direction, leveraging sustained movements to accumulate a position that grows as the trend progresses. This approach requires the trader to first identify the prevailing trend, which can be achieved through market structure analysis or the use of indicators such as moving averages, momentum indicators, or the Average Directional Index (ADX).
Upon determining the trend, the current price acts as a base from which buy stop (in an uptrend) or sell stop (in a downtrend) orders are placed at fixed intervals. The intervals may vary depending on the trader’s preference; a popular method involves using the Average True Range (ATR) to set these distances.
For example, if using the ATR, a trader might place orders at intervals of 2x the ATR value from the base price, utilising the ATR’s reflection of market volatility to gauge appropriate spacing between orders.
Entry
Orders may be placed in the direction of the trend at intervals determined by the trader, such as a set number of pips or a multiple of the ATR from the base price, enabling a balanced expansion of the position as the trend continues.
Stop Loss
Setting a stop loss in a trend-following grid strategy varies; some traders prefer to trail a stop loss beyond the last entry point to protect gains, while others set it just beyond the base price to guard against sudden reversals.
Take Profit
Profit-taking can be challenging in a trend-following grid; according to the theory, one approach is to close all trades after a predetermined number of orders are reached (e.g. if using four orders, closing the trade when the fifth order is reached), effectively capturing returns before a potential reversal.
Another method may be to take profits upon the opening of the next order in the sequence, which limits both potential gains and losses while reallocating capital for future trades.
Risk Management in Grid Trading
Risk management is a critical aspect of grid trading, where the systematic approach to placing multiple orders can potentially amplify both returns and losses. Given that grid systems compound entries, the disciplined use of stop losses becomes essential to cap potential losses. This is particularly true in volatile markets. When grid trading in cryptocurrencies*, for example, rapid price movements can quickly leave a trader overexposed without careful risk management.
Another crucial consideration is the spacing between orders. Properly calibrated spacing can help manage exposure by preventing the accumulation of too many positions too quickly in a market that is moving against the trader's assumptions. Similarly, the sizing of each trade must be carefully considered to not only manage exposure but also ensure that margin requirements are met without overleveraging the account.
Diversification across different instruments or markets is also an important part of a grid strategy. By not putting all eggs in one basket, traders can potentially reduce the impact of a significant move in any single market.
Many grid trading strategies are automated, allowing for the execution of this strategy at a scale and speed that would be challenging manually. However, using grid trading bots introduces its own complexities, including the need for constant monitoring to ensure that the algorithm behaves as expected in changing market conditions. It also requires a robust understanding of the automated system's parameters to avoid unintended exposure.
The Bottom Line
Grid trading may offer a unique avenue for traders to exploit market volatility effectively. By understanding and applying the strategies outlined, traders may navigate the forex market with increased confidence. For those looking to put these strategies into practice, opening an FXOpen account provides the ideal platform to explore grid trading's potential, backed by a broker known for its robust support and advanced trading tools.
FAQs
What Is Grid Trading in Forex?
Grid trading in forex is a strategy where a trader places buy and sell orders at predetermined intervals around a base price. It capitalises on the natural market volatility by automatically executing trades without the need to analyse market directions. This approach is designed to generate returns from the fluctuations of financial assets.
How Does Grid Trading Work?
Grid trading works by setting up a network of buy and sell orders spaced at regular intervals above and below a starting price point. As prices fluctuate, these orders are triggered, potentially allowing traders to take advantage of small price movements. The strategy can be adjusted for different market conditions, aiming to continuously enter and exit trades based on the established grid pattern.
What Is Spot Grid Trading?
Spot grid trading is a specific application of grid trading strategies in the spot market, where financial instruments are bought and sold for immediate delivery. In forex, it refers to buying and selling currency pairs at their current market price, using a grid strategy to take advantage of spot market volatility.
What Is a Grid Trading Strategy?
A grid trading strategy is a systematic method of placing a series of orders at incrementally increasing and decreasing prices. This strategy is designed to execute trades automatically as the market moves, aiming to secure returns from these movements without needing to determine the market's direction.
How Risky Is Grid Trading?
Grid trading can be risky due to its potential to compound losses, especially in highly volatile markets. The strategy requires careful management of stop losses, order spacing, and trade sizing to mitigate exposure. While automation of grid trading can help manage these risks, it also introduces the need for constant monitoring and understanding of the system to prevent significant losses.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Learn Risk Management.Applying risk management in forex trading is crucial for long-term success. Here are some key steps:
1. **Define Risk Tolerance:** Determine how much you're willing to risk on each trade. This is typically a percentage of your trading capital.
2. **Set Stop Losses:** Place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on each trade. These orders automatically close a trade if the price moves against you beyond a certain point.
3. **Calculate Position Size:** Determine the size of your position based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop loss. This ensures that you're not risking more than you're comfortable with on each trade.
4. **Diversify:** Avoid putting all your capital into one trade or currency pair. Diversifying your trades can help spread risk.
5. **Use Leverage Wisely:** While leverage can amplify profits, it also increases risk. Be cautious and use leverage conservatively.
6. **Stay Informed:** Keep up with market news and events that could impact currency prices. Being aware of potential risks allows you to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
7. **Regularly Review and Adjust:** Continuously monitor your trades and risk exposure. Adjust your risk management strategy as needed based on your performance and changing market conditions.
By following these steps, traders can effectively manage risk and increase their chances of success in forex trading.
Navigating Interest Rates with Micro Yield Futures Pair TradingIntroduction to Yield Futures
In the complex world of financial markets, Treasury Yield Futures offer investors a pathway to be exposed to changes in U.S. treasury yields. Among these instruments, the Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures stand out due to their granularity and accessibility. These futures contracts reflect the market's expectations for the yields of U.S. Treasury securities with corresponding maturities.
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures allow traders to express views on the longer end of the yield curve, typically influenced by factors like economic growth expectations and inflation. Conversely, Micro 2-Year Yield Futures are more sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate, making them a ideal for short-term interest rate movements.
Why Pair Trading?
Pair trading is a market-neutral strategy that involves taking offsetting positions in two closely related securities. This approach aims to capitalize on the relative price movements between the two assets, focusing on their correlation and co-integration rather than their individual price paths. In the context of Micro Treasury Yield Futures, pair trading between the 10-Year and 2-Year contracts offers a strategic advantage by exploiting the yield curve dynamics.
By simultaneously going long on Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and short on Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (or vice versa), traders can hedge against general interest rate movements while potentially profiting from changes in the yield spread between these maturities.
Analyzing the Current Market Conditions
Understanding the current market conditions is pivotal for executing a successful pair trading strategy with Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. Currently, the interest rate environment is influenced by a complex interplay of economic recovery signals, inflation expectations, and central bank policies.
Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates directly affects the yield of U.S. Treasury securities. For instance, a hawkish outlook, suggesting rate hikes, can cause short-term yields to increase rapidly. Long-term yields might also rise but could be tempered by long-term inflation control measures.
Strategic Approach to Pair Trading These Futures
Trade Execution and Monitoring
To effectively implement a pair trading strategy with Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, traders must have a solid plan for identifying entry and exit points, managing the positions, and understanding the mechanics of yield spreads. Here’s a step-by-step approach:
1. Identifying the Trade Setup
Mean Reversion Concept: In this strategy, we utilize the concept of mean reversion, which suggests that the yield spread will revert to its historical average over time. To quantify the mean, we employ a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the spread between the Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. This moving average serves as a benchmark to determine when the spread is significantly deviating from its typical range.
Signal Identification using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI): To further refine our entry and exit signals, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is employed. The CCI helps in identifying cyclical turns in the spread. This indicator is particularly useful for determining when the spread has reached a condition that is statistically overbought or oversold.
2. Trade Execution:
Going Long on One and Short on the Other: Depending on your analysis, you might go long on the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures if you anticipate the long-term rates will increase more relative to the short-term rates, or vice versa.
Position Sizing: Determine the size of each position based on the volatility of the yield spreads and your risk tolerance. It's crucial to balance the positions to ensure that the trade remains market-neutral.
Regular Review and adjustments: Regularly review the economic indicators and Fed announcements that could affect interest rates. Keep an eye on the spread for any signs that it might be moving back towards its mean or breaking out in a new trend.
Contract Specifications
To further refine our strategy, understanding the specific contract details of Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures is crucial:
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (Symbol: 10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (Symbol: 2YY1!):
Tick Value: Each tick (0.001) of movement is worth $1 per contract.
Trading Hours: Sunday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. (New York time) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m.
Initial Margin: Approximately $350 per contract, subject to change based on market volatility.
Pair Margin Efficiency
When trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures as a pair, traders can leverage margin efficiencies from reduced portfolio risk. These efficiencies lower the required capital and mitigate volatility impacts.
The two charts below illustrate the volatility contrast: the Daily ATR of the yield spread is 0.033, significantly lower than the 0.082 ATR of the Micro 10-Year alone, nearly three times higher. This lower spread volatility underlines a core advantage of pair trading—reduced market exposure and potentially smoother, more predictable returns.
Risk Management in Pair Trading Micro Yield Futures
Effective risk management is the cornerstone of any successful trading strategy, especially in pair trading where the goal is to mitigate market risks through balancing positions. Here are key risk management techniques that should be considered when pair trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures:
1. Setting Stop-Loss Orders:
Pre-determined Levels: Establish stop-loss levels at the outset of the trade based on historical volatility, maximum acceptable loss, and the distance from your entry point. This helps in limiting potential losses if the market moves unfavorably.
Trailing Stops: Consider using trailing stop-loss orders that move with the market price. This method locks in profits while providing protection against reversal trends.
2. Position Sizing and Leverage Control:
Balanced Exposure: Ensure that the sizes of the long and short positions are balanced to maintain a market-neutral stance. This helps in minimizing the impact of broad market movements on the pair trade.
Leverage Management: Be cautious with the use of leverage. Excessive leverage can amplify losses, especially in volatile market conditions. Always align leverage with your risk tolerance and market assessment.
3. Regular Monitoring and Adjustments:
Adaptation to Market Changes: Be flexible to adjust or close the positions based on significant changes in market conditions or when the initial trading assumptions no longer hold true.
4. Utilizing Risk Management Tools:
Risk Management Software: Set alerts on TradingView to help track the performance and risk level of your pair trades effectively.
Backtesting: Regularly backtest the strategy against historical data to ensure it remains effective under various market conditions. This can also help refine the entry and exit criteria to better handle market volatility.
Effective risk management not only preserves capital but also enhances the potential for profitability by maintaining disciplined trading practices. These strategies ensure that traders can sustain their operations and capitalize on opportunities without facing disproportionate risks.
Conclusion
Pair trading Micro 10-Year and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures offers traders a sophisticated strategy to exploit inefficiencies within the yield curve while mitigating exposure to broader market movements. This approach leverages the distinct characteristics of these two futures contracts, aiming to profit from the relative movements between long-term and short-term interest rates.
Key Takeaways:
Market Neutral Strategy: Pair trading is fundamentally a market-neutral strategy that focuses on the relative performance of two assets rather than their individual price movements. This can provide insulation against market volatility and reduce directional risk.
Importance of Strategy and Discipline: Successful pair trading requires a disciplined approach to strategy implementation, from trade setup and execution to ongoing management and exit. Adhering to a predefined strategy helps maintain focus and objectivity in trading decisions.
Dynamic Market Adaptation: The financial markets are continuously evolving, influenced by economic data, policy changes, and global events. A successful pair trader must remain adaptable, continuously analyzing market conditions and adjusting strategies as needed to align with the current economic landscape.
Comprehensive Risk Management: Effective risk management is crucial in pair trading, involving careful consideration of position sizing, stop-loss settings, and regular strategy reviews. This ensures sustainability and longevity in trading by protecting against undue losses.
By maintaining a disciplined approach and adapting to market changes, traders can harness the potential of Micro Treasury Yield Futures for strategic pair trading, balancing risk and reward effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Exploring Auction Market Theory in Forex TradingAuction Market Theory (AMT) is a conceptual framework used to understand the dynamics of financial markets, viewing them as auctions where buyers and sellers interact to determine prices.
Although the AMT was initially developed to understand & analyse price action movements in the stock market, some of its core concepts can also be applied to any market, including forex.
Within the forex market, currency pairs are traded 24/5, with price driven by a multitude of factors such as economic data releases, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Despite this complexity, AMT provides a framework for understanding market dynamics through the concepts of value, balance, and imbalances .
Value represents the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of an asset. Market balance occurs when supply and demand are roughly equal, resulting in stable price ranges, while imbalances arise from deviations from this equilibrium due to shifts in market sentiment or unexpected events. These imbalances can create trading opportunities for astute traders who can identify them and act accordingly.
Lets now take a look into how this can be visually identified on a line chart using only price action.
Example 1
On the left, we can see an area of market balance. This is usually evident when the market is range bound as we can see in this case.
The midpoint of the range is the point of equilibrium. Value can be interpreted as the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of a currency pair.
This equilibrium is constantly shifting as new information becomes available and market participants reassess their expectations.
When these expectations shift as a result of either economic data releases, geopolitical events, and/or market sentiment, price shifts away from the balanced price range and creates an imbalance within the market.
Identifying value areas are important because these can act as an area of future support/resistance for price. Notice how in this example, after price displaces from the balanced range, it later came back and found support near the fair value within that range.
Practical Application
One practical application of AMT in forex trading is through the analysis of price action and market profile. By observing how price behaves at different levels and how volume interacts with price movements, you can gain insights into market sentiment and potential areas of support and resistance.
For example, if a currency pair consistently fails to break above a certain resistance level despite multiple attempts, it may indicate strong selling pressure at that level, presenting an opportunity for short trades. Conversely, if a currency pair finds strong support at a particular price level, traders may look for buying opportunities as the market reverts to equilibrium.
To conclude, Auction Market Theory offers a valuable framework for understanding the dynamics of the forex market. By analysing price action, volume, and market profile through the lens of AMT, you can gain a deeper understanding of market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. While no theory can guarantee success in trading, incorporating Auction Market Theory into your analysis can help you make more informed trading decisions.
Please leave a comment if you've found this post helpful or if you have any questions.
Happy Trading
Momentum Trading Strategies for Day TradersMomentum Trading Strategies for Day Traders
Momentum trading is a highly-regarded trading strategy used to seize opportunities in trending markets. This article explores momentum trading and offers two comprehensive strategies for capitalising on rising and falling markets.
What Is a Momentum Trading Strategy?
Momentum trading is a technique where traders aim to capitalise on the inertia of existing market trends. The primary objective is to enter into a long position when an asset is showing an upward trend and to take a short position when the asset is trending downward. It's a strategy that thrives on volatility and requires a keen eye for market indicators.
Understanding Momentum Indicators
Momentum indicators are vital tools that help traders in gauging the strength and sustainability of an ongoing market trend. These indicators are often represented as oscillators on trading charts, fluctuating between designated upper and lower bounds.
Among the most commonly used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Stochastic Oscillator, and moving averages. These mathematical tools analyse price action and generate signals for potential entry or exit points. In momentum strategy trading, these indicators act as the 'eyes' for the trader, providing actionable insights into market dynamics.
You’ll find a whole host of momentum indicators, including the ones discussed in this article, on FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Head over there to get started in minutes.
RSI + MACD Strategy
The RSI + MACD Strategy combines two powerful momentum indicators to enhance the precision of trading entries and exits. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) typically oscillates between 0 and 100, providing insights into an asset's overbought or oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) comprises two moving averages, generating signals based on their crossover points. In day trading, this momentum strategy can be particularly effective.
Entry
A common entry point is when the RSI crosses above 30 (indicating potential reversal from an oversold condition) or crosses below 70 (suggesting the asset may be overbought) alongside the MACD signal line crossing the MACD line in the same direction, roughly at the same time.
Stop Losses
Traders often place their stop-loss orders near a recent swing point. This allows for some volatility while protecting against significant losses should the trade move unfavourably.
Take Profits
Profit-taking opportunities may arise when the RSI crosses back above 70 or below 30, signalling a potential end to the trend.
Alternatively, traders often set their take-profit levels at established support or resistance lines on the chart.
While the RSI excels in identifying overbought or oversold conditions, the MACD pinpoints trend reversals through moving average crossovers. By combining these two indicators, traders can filter out noise, reduce the likelihood of false signals, and capitalise on sustained market movements.
Stochastic + HMA Crossover Strategy
The Stochastic + HMA Crossover Strategy employs the Stochastic Oscillator in tandem with two Hull Moving Averages (HMA) of differing periods—9 and 21—to identify trading opportunities.
The Stochastic Oscillator measures an asset's closing price relative to its high-low range, with levels above 80 considered overbought and below 20 as oversold. The HMA aims to capture price trends with reduced lag, making it responsive to market changes. This trading strategy offers frequent entries and exits. As such, it’s also an ideal momentum day trading strategy.
Entries
Traders often enter a position when the Stochastic Oscillator crosses back below 80 or above 20. They then look for a crossover between the 9-period and 21-period HMA in the same direction within the next two candles, confirming the entry signal.
Stop Losses
Much like the RSI + MACD strategy, stops are usually placed near a recent swing point to mitigate excessive losses.
Take Profits
Profit levels can be set when the Stochastic Oscillator moves back into the opposing range (above 80 or below 20).
Traders may consider holding the position a bit longer as the Stochastic Oscillator frequently fluctuates in these areas. A significant support/resistance level is suitable.
Here, the Stochastic Oscillator offers precise overbought and oversold levels, while the HMA's reduced lag helps traders identify and confirm trends more quickly. Together, these indicators offer a nuanced yet timely picture of market conditions.
Benefits and Drawbacks of Momentum Trading
Momentum trading is undoubtedly a popular style of trading. However, it comes with some key benefits and drawbacks:
Benefits
Quick Returns: Momentum trading may yield quick returns due to its focus on short-term trends.
Highly Liquid: Traders often deal with high-volume assets, ensuring easy entries and exits.
Data-Driven: Utilises well-defined indicators, meaning it's less subjective than some other styles of trading. In algorithmic trading, momentum strategies are popular for this reason.
Drawbacks
Volatility Risks: The focus on quick returns exposes traders to high volatility and potential losses.
False Signals: Indicators can sometimes generate false signals, leading to poor trading decisions.
Costs: High frequency of trading means higher transaction fees, which can eat into profits.
The Bottom Line
In essence, momentum trading strategies offer traders a structured approach to benefit from market trends. The strategies outlined here can serve as a solid foundation, giving traders space to refine them further based on their own experience and market observations. Moreover, they can be used as momentum stock and forex trading strategies. If you're ready to put them to the test, you can open an FXOpen account to start your trading journey across hundreds of markets. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The 0.5% After Hours Pump And DumpIt is very problematic when you look at the after-hours screen then you see
that gosh you was wrong on your prediction
--
The truth is this is not a prophecy you can be wrong on any price action
so always keep an air of doubt in your thesis
--
An announcement was made on public news that This stock might suffer because of low sales for the year the earnings report is coming out this morning
--
when this does when shall know if this gap down will happen also
take note of the pre-market hours coming out soon
--
There is a very little cure for fear but right now we
just have to hold on tight to our thesis and
--
probability and see what happens at the
pre-market hours time frame.
--
When i was looking at the after-hours data doubt sank deep inside my heart thinking
--
"Am i wrong about the probability of this stock crash?"
--
Trading is a ruff game of capitalism you need to have thick skin or else
you will be swinging around and round with the crowd doubting your price predictions
and trend analysis
-
Please read the disclaimer below
--
Disclaimer:This is not financial advice do your own research before you buy or sell anything trading is risky and you will lose money
All Roads Leads to RomeIf you wish to analyze the index using traditional Japanese candles and Heikin-Ashi candles, and compare that using Bollinger Bands, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci series, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicators. And you want to conduct the analysis on various time frames including daily, hourly, and every five minutes to discover the confluence between these indicators, you will find what pleases you in this tutorial video.
#traders4traders
***This channel is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment proposal.
Disclaimer:
The content provided is for Educational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other form of advice. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks and may lead to potential losses, including the loss of principal. It's important for investors to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future returns, and market fluctuations can impact investment value. Stocks discussed here are not synonymous with, nor should they be seen as a replacement for time deposits or similar saving instruments. Investing in securities of smaller companies may involve higher risks compared to larger, more established firms, possibly resulting in substantial capital losses. Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall I be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView
Introducing another way to display volume profile sectionsHello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
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The indicators activated in the settings are those created by trading volume.
Therefore, this indicator represents the volume profile section.
The indicator that the arrow points to is the indicator I mentioned earlier.
By looking at this indicator together with volume candles, you can more clearly identify the volume profile section and support and resistance sections.
In addition, you can verify the start of trading by checking the movement of the BW indicator, which consists of five indicators, namely MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators.
BW-MACD, BW-StochRSI, BW-CCI, BW-PVT, and BW-superTrend indicators are displayed separately to help you understand the indicators.
Once your trading timing has been selected, you need to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
What is important in creating a trading strategy that suits your investment style is the investment period and investment size.
Once the investment period and investment size have been decided, you must create a trading method and profit realization method using the information obtained from chart analysis.
Trading methods include buying, selling, and stop loss methods.
The purchase method should focus on how to lower the average purchase price by purchasing in installments.
At that time, when the price falls below the stop loss point and shows resistance, you need to think about how to proceed with selling.
When taking a stop loss, you must proceed according to the investment period you have set.
For example, if you decide to trade within one wave as a short-term trade and proceed with the trade, but the price falls below the stop loss point, you should be able to sell 100% and then watch the situation.
If the price rises after purchasing, you must proceed with selling according to the selling method.
The selling method must also be carried out according to the investment period.
However, the method of increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit by selling the amount equal to the purchase amount can be continued into mid- to long-term trading even if the transaction was done through day trading or short-term trading.
The reason is that the average purchase price of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits is 0.
If you add other indicators to help you conduct split transactions based on price fluctuations, the chart will look like the one above.
If the chart is unfamiliar to your eyes,
It is recommended to view only the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and the M-Signal indicators of the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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(QIUSDT 1M chart)
The key is whether it can receive support and rise around 0.01550-0.01939.
If not, it is highly likely that the flow is to create a middle section in the form of a bottom.
(1W chart)
Since the HA-High indicator is formed at the 0.02464 point, it is highly likely that the price will continue its upward trend if it rises above 0.02464 and maintains the price.
However, since a psychological volume profile section has been formed up to the 0.03732 point, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin only when it rises above this point.
If it falls below 0.01550 and shows resistance, it is likely to fall near the HA-Low indicator.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator is formed at 0.00736.
However, as the price falls, there is a possibility that a new HA-Low indicator will be created, so support near the HA-Low indicator is important.
(1D chart)
The HA-Low indicator is formed at 0.01560.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise in the important area around 0.01550-0.01939.
If the price falls below the HA-Low indicator and shows resistance, there is a high possibility of a cascading decline, so a countermeasure is needed.
Since a volume profile section is formed at the 0.0122 point, you need to check whether you can receive support around this area.
The HA-High indicator is formed at 0.02715.
Since the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is formed at the 0.02464 point, the 0.02464-0.02715 section is likely to be a resistance zone.
If it receives support in the 0.02464-0.02715 range and rises, it is likely that an upward trend will begin.
However, since the 0.03549-0.03732 section may again serve as a resistance section, a countermeasure is needed.
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To trade by looking at this chart, you need to choose what is most important to you and decide on an appropriate investment period.
If the investment period does not suit your investment style, it is better not to trade.
The reason is that once you start trading, your psychological influence is likely to have a big impact on your trading.
In day trading or short-term trading, it is recommended to buy when support is confirmed in the 0.01550-0.01939 range and sell around 0.02464-0.02715, the first split selling range.
At this time, you must decide whether to sell 100% and receive a cash profit, or whether to sell the purchase principal amount and leave the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.
For medium to long term trading, I don't think it's time to trade yet.
The reason is that, as mentioned earlier, if it falls below 0.01550-0.01939, there is a high possibility of creating an intermediate section in the form of a bottom.
Therefore, it is recommended to proceed with a split purchase when support appears near the HA-Low indicator of the 1M chart or the HA-Low indicator of the 1W chart.
Therefore, it is most important to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
1. Investment period
2. Investment size
3. Trading method and profit realization method
You need to create a trading strategy based on 1-3 above.
Numbers 1 and 2 are to determine the investment period and investment size according to your investment style, so you can make your decision by analyzing charts and checking other coin ecosystems.
Number 3 is to decide on the detailed trading method when you decide to trade, so you must select the buying, selling, and stop-loss method and decide how to realize profits accordingly.
It is useful when conducting mid- to long-term transactions to reserve the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit rather than 100% selling.
This is because the purchase price of the coin (token) corresponding to profit is 0.
Have a good time.
thank you
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- The big picture
A full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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