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Trend Analysis

What I wish I knew when I started Trading1. Study and Trade One Pair Only Focusing on a single currency pair can streamline your learning and help you master market dynamics. 🔸Choose a Pair: Start with major pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. These have high liquidity and predictable patterns. 🔸Understand Its Behavior: Learn the fundamentals and technical characteristics of the pair, such as its volatility, reaction to news, and typical trading hours. 🔸Backtesting and Practice: Use historical data to understand how the pair moves under different market conditions. 2. Losses Are Part of Trading No trader is immune to losses. Handling them effectively is crucial for long-term success. Mindset: 🔸Accept Losses as Learning Opportunities: View losses as part of the cost of doing business, akin to inventory in retail. 🔸Detach Emotionally: Avoid the temptation to revenge trade or let losses affect your confidence. Practical Strategies: 🔸Set Risk Parameters: Only risk 1-2% of your trading account per trade. This limits the damage of a losing streak. 🔸Use Stop Losses: Predetermine the point at which you will exit a trade if it goes against you. This protects you from devastating losses. 🔸Keep a Journal: Document each trade, including reasons for entering, outcomes, and what you learned. Over time, patterns will emerge to guide improvement. 3. Develop Discipline and Patience 🔸Stick to a Trading Plan: Define your entry, exit, and risk management strategies before trading. 🔸Trade Less, Win More: Focus on high-probability setups instead of trading excessively. 🔸Give Yourself Time: Mastery in Forex trading can take years. Trust the process and aim for consistent improvement. 4. Build Resilience to Handle Losses Self-Care: 🔸Step away from the charts after a big loss to regain perspective. 🔸Engage in activities that reduce stress, like exercise or meditation. Review and Improve: 🔸Evaluate losing trades to identify errors. 🔸Adjust your strategy if recurring issues are found. 🔸Focus on the Big Picture: 🔸Track your performance over months or years, not days. This helps put individual losses into perspective.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
13
Why Crypto Memecoins are Winning Hearts & Wallets ? The Memecoin Supercycle The Rise of Memecoins as Dominant Players - Performance Trends: Memecoins are currently outperforming other crypto asset classes, signaling a shift from the uniform growth of all cryptocurrencies to selective surges in niche categories. -Data Driven Insight: Among the top tokens, memecoins constitute a significant portion of those that have outperformed Bitcoin year2date Structural Issues in Traditional Crypto Projects -Overproduction and Valuation Problems: - The market is flooded with tokens leading to oversaturation and inflated valuations. - Many altcoins are launched with extremely high valuations, often benefiting insiders while retail investors bear the losses. -Centralization: Despite the decentralization ethos, token distributions are often controlled by insiders, alienating retail investors. Why Memecoins Thrive? -Market Fit: Memecoins resonate with retail investors due to their simplicity, cultural relevance, and the promise of community-driven gains. -Speculation and Momentum:Memecoins capitalize on speculative dynamics and community participation, often generating cult-like followings. - Emotional Utility:Beyond financial returns, memecoins provide entertainment, identity, and a sense of belonging—qualities overlooked by tech-driven tokens. External Factors Boosting Memecoins -Economic Pressures: Inflation, income inequality, and job insecurities are pushing individuals toward high-risk, high-reward opportunities. -Cultural Shifts: With declining influence of traditional institutions like religion, people are gravitating towards digital communities and narratives, such as those offered by memecoins. Memecoins vs Traditional Altcoins -Token Dynamics: Memecoins simplify the crypto experience by focusing on the community and token without overcomplicating with software utilities. -Competitive Advantage:Memecoins are described as “better products” for retail investors due to their accessibility, liquidity, and lack of insider-driven dilution. Predictions for the Future -Market Growth: there is a chance for $1 trillion market cap for memecoins, with some reaching valuations above $100 billion. -Shift in Dominance: Memecoins are expected to occupy a more significant share of the crypto market, outperforming utility-focused tokens and tech-backed assets. -Institutional Adoption: Venture capitalists and traditional finance players are likely to pivot toward memecoins as they recognize their market potential. Implications for the Crypto Industry -Reevaluating Narratives: Memecoins challenge the tech-first narrative of crypto by emphasizing community-driven growth and speculative value. -Tokenization of Faith:Memecoins symbolize a broader trend of financializing belief systems and creating "mini religions" around digital assets. -Retail-Centric Approach: The success of memecoins highlights the importance of catering to retail investors' aspirations for financial gains, fun, and community. Long story short the memecoin supercycle is not only a reflection of market trends but also a response to broader societal changes. Memecoins have become a powerful force in the crypto landscape by aligning with the emotional and speculative desires of investors. As the industry evolves, their role as cultural and financial phenomena is likely to grow, reshaping how we perceive and participate in cryptocurrency markets. Which meme coins do you think will pump 100X soon? and why!?
Education
by moonypto
Grasping Forex Volatility: How to Trade in Choppy & Calm WatersWhen it comes to the forex market , volatility isn’t just a side effect—it’s the main event. The constant ebb and flow of currency prices can be exhilarating or exasperating, depending on how good you are. Volatility can shift from a calm sea to a rogue wave, often without warning, leaving traders either riding high or clutching their lifebuoys. To help you navigate the forex waters like a pro, especially if you’re a newcomer, we’ve whipped up this Idea with some key insights and revelations. The Art of Trading During High Volatility High volatility tends to be thrilling—big price swings, rapid moves, and plenty of adrenaline. For the well-prepared trader, these market conditions are like surfacing a giant wave; the payoff can be huge, but it demands skill, timing, and control. Why High Volatility Happens Interest rate announcements, economic releases, geopolitical turmoil—high-impact events send volatility soaring. During these times, spreads can widen, price slippage creeps in, and liquidity often gets tighter, making precision essential. While the reward potential is high, the risks are right there with it. Think of high-volatility periods as power tools; they’re incredibly effective in the right hands but can quickly cause damage if used recklessly. Strategizing in the Fast Lane When volatility spikes, flexibility is key. One popular approach is to shorten your trading timeframe. Rather than holding out for the moon, focus on capturing smaller, rapid gains and set tighter stop-loss levels to limit downside. Pay attention to the economic calendar —if the Federal Reserve is set to speak, or if non-farm payrolls data is due, get ready to adapt fast. And if you’re following price trends, make sure to use a healthy dose of confirmation bias: watch those moving averages , MACD signals , and RSI readings , and let them do their job before you jump in. Finding Opportunity in Low Volatility Markets At the opposite end of the spectrum, low volatility often gets a bad rap. Price moves seem sluggish, the market consolidates, and excitement seems as far away as Friday on a Monday. But low volatility doesn’t mean no opportunity. It simply requires a shift in tactics. Why Markets Go Quiet Periods of low volatility often occur in the absence of major news or when traders are holding back, waiting for an upcoming event. These consolidating markets are common around holidays, just before important announcements, or in times of economic stability. Reading Between the Lines Trading in a low-volatility environment means you’re often dealing with range-bound markets. Here, the game is all about patience and precision. Use support and resistance levels as guardrails—when prices reach the top of a range, it’s often time to sell; when they reach the bottom, consider buying. But a word to the wise: low volatility doesn’t stay that way forever. A period of consolidation can quickly give way to breakout action. Keep an eye on breakout indicators like Bollinger Bands ; when they start expanding, it might signal the market’s about to wake up from its nap. Choosing the Right Pair Certain currency pairs are naturally more volatile than others. Major pairs like EUR/USD , GBP/USD , and USD/JPY see consistent action due to their high trading volume, but if you’re hunting high-pitch volatility, take a look at pairs like GBP/JPY , EUR/JPY , or any pair involving emerging market currencies like the Mexican Peso or South African Rand. Keep in mind, though, that with higher volatility comes a need for tighter risk control. On the other hand, when markets are in a lull, the majors are often your best bet. During low-volatility periods, the big, liquid pairs are less prone to the kind of wild fluctuations that can eat away at gains. Trading low-volatility pairs in a low-volatility market can keep you out of whipsaw territory and add some consistency to your returns. Leverage: Powerful yet Dangerous, and Not Always Your Friend Let’s get something straight: leverage in a high-volatility market can be like playing with fireworks. It’s all great until you get burned. When markets are moving fast, a little leverage goes a long way, but too much can quickly wipe out gains (and accounts). Dialing down leverage during volatile times can keep your trade within control without losing out on potential returns. In low-volatility markets, leverage might seem tempting as a way to amplify those smaller moves. But here’s the catch—just because volatility is low doesn’t mean you’re free from risk. Markets can turn on a dime, and it’s always better to live to trade another day. Use leverage sparingly, no matter what the market mood may be. Liquidity: The Grease That Keeps the Forex Machine Running Smoothly If volatility is the main character, then liquidity is the supporting cast, keeping everything steady when the markets get choppy. High liquidity—think major pairs like euro-dollar and dollar-yen—means your orders are filled fast and spreads stay tight, giving you a bit of breathing room. But liquidity can shrink fast in low-volume sessions, during major events, or with exotic pairs. That’s when spreads can widen unexpectedly, slippage sneaks in, and you might get more excitement than you bargained for. When volatility is high, liquidity can drop as big players step back, causing prices to jump erratically between buy and sell points. If you’re trading into the storm, consider the liquidity squeeze a warning: stick with high-liquidity pairs, watch those spreads, and avoid getting caught in thin markets. In fast-moving conditions, liquidity is your safety net, so stick with the pairs that offer deeper pools of it. In low-volatility markets, liquidity is usually stable. With tighter spreads and less risk of slippage, low-volatility conditions let you plan range-bound trades with more confidence. It’s one of the perks of low volatility: while big moves may be rare, the market structure tends to hold, keeping your trades smoother and more predictable. The Bottom Line: Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword High or low, volatility is something every trader has to contend with. The key is to approach it with strategy, patience, and adaptability. Anyway, here’s the advice you didn’t ask for: in high-volatility times, trade quickly, tighten your stops, and keep your leverage modest. In low-volatility environments, embrace the calm, focus on range trading, and don’t fall asleep on potential breakout signals. The forex market rewards those who play by its rules, adapt to its moods, and respect its risks. So, what kind of trader are you? Do you chase the thrill of big moves, or find comfort in the steadiness of a quiet market? Share your thoughts below!
Education
by TradingView
7
Your Pathway to Becoming a Technical Analyst INTRODUCTION Types of Market Analysis There are three primary types of market analysis: Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators, political events, and other factors that can influence market prices. Technical Analysis: This involves studying past price and volume data to identify patterns and trends that can predict future price movements. Sentiment Analysis: This involves analyzing market sentiment, or the overall mood of investors, to gauge potential price movements. The Importance of a Balanced Approach While it's possible to specialize in one type of analysis, a well-rounded trader should have a solid understanding of all three. Ignoring fundamental or sentiment analysis can lead to unexpected market movements that can negatively impact your trading strategy. Key Points to Remember: Balance is Key: Aim to develop a strong foundation in all three types of analysis. Prioritize Your Focus: Choose one type of analysis as your primary focus and use the others to supplement your strategy. Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with economic news, political events, and market sentiment. Adapt to Changing Conditions: Be flexible and willing to adjust your strategy as market conditions change. By understanding and applying these principles, you can improve your trading decisions and increase your chances of success.
Education
by ilesanmipepsi
Dollar's Rise, Gold's Demise◉ Abstract The US Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices have a historically inverse correlation, with a stronger dollar typically reducing gold demand. Key drivers of this relationship include inflation, geopolitical tensions, and interest rates. With a 73-95% negative correlation observed over time, investors should note the current market outlook: the DXY is poised to break out above 107, potentially surging to 114, while gold prices may drop 5% to 2,400 and then 2,300. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for making informed investment decisions and capitalizing on potential trading opportunities. ◉ Introduction The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices is significant and typically characterized by an inverse correlation. Understanding this relationship is crucial for investors and traders in the gold market. ◉ U.S. Dollar Index Overview The U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. It serves as an indicator of the dollar's strength or weakness in global markets. When the index rises, it indicates that the dollar is gaining value relative to these currencies, while a decline suggests a weakening dollar. ◉ Inverse Relationship with Gold Prices Gold is priced in U.S. dollars on international markets, which directly influences its price based on fluctuations in the dollar's value: ● Strengthening Dollar: When the DXY index increases, it generally leads to a decrease in gold prices. This occurs because a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors using other currencies, thereby reducing demand. ● Weakening Dollar: Conversely, when the DXY index falls, gold prices tend to rise. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, increasing its demand and driving up prices. Research indicates that this inverse relationship has been consistent over time, particularly in long-term trends. For instance, historical data shows that gold prices often rise when the dollar depreciates, reflecting a negative correlation of approximately 73% to 95% over various time intervals. ◉ Short-Term Deviations While the long-term trend supports this inverse relationship, short-term anomalies can occur under specific market conditions. For example, during periods of extreme volatility or economic uncertainty, gold and the dollar may exhibit a positive correlation temporarily as both assets are sought after as safe havens. This behaviour can confuse investors who expect the typical inverse relationship to hold. ◉ Additional Influencing Factors Several other factors also affect gold prices beyond the dollar's strength: ● Inflation: Rising inflation often leads investors to flock to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. ➖ E.g. In 2022, as inflation rates surged to 9.1%, demand for gold increased by 12% year-over-year, pushing prices higher. Historical data shows that during periods of high inflation from 1974 to 2008, gold prices rose by an average of 14.9% annually. ● Geopolitical Events: Uncertainty from geopolitical tensions can drive demand for gold regardless of dollar fluctuations. ➖ E.g. In late 2023, escalating conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war contributed to a surge in gold prices, with reports indicating increases of over 3% in a week due to these tensions ● Interest Rates: When the Fed raises interest rates, it typically strengthens the dollar as higher yields attract foreign capital. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand. ➖ E.g. During the Federal Reserve's rate hikes from March 2022 to early 2023, many investors moved away from gold as they sought higher returns from bonds and other fixed-income securities. This shift contributed to downward pressure on gold prices during that period. ◉ Technical Standings ● U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY The US Dollar Index has been stuck in neutral for two years. But if it clears the 107 hurdle, get ready for a surge to 114. ● Gold Spot/USD OANDA:XAUUSD ➖ Gold prices skyrocketed to 2,790, then plunged. Expect a 5% drop to 2,400. If that support cracks, 2,300 is the next safety net.
TVC:DXYEducation
by NaranjCapital
DOGE/USDt: Famous Pattern Indicates Continuation To The Upside Falling peaks and rising valleys have built famous Triangle pattern on the hourly chart of DOGE/USDt. It's a consolidation after a big rally, which means more upside move is ahead. Watch the price to break out of the pattern. The target is located at the widest part of Triangle added to the break point. Its located at 0.533 Breakdown of Triangle would invalidate the pattern. RSI has managed to keep above the neutral point during this consolidation. This supports the idea of further move to the upside
Education
by aibek
Using Derivatives for Hedging Risks on ForexUsing Derivatives for Hedging Risks on Forex In the dynamic world of forex trading, understanding how to protect one's position is paramount. This article delves into the strategic use of derivatives, specifically CFDs, to hedge against potential adverse currency movements, offering traders a safety net in the volatile forex environment. The Concept of Hedging in Forex Hedging, in the realm of forex trading, refers to the strategic use of certain financial instruments, such as derivatives, to protect an investment or portfolio from adverse price movements. By employing this technique, market participants can potentially offset losses from their primary investments, ensuring a more balanced financial outcome. Companies that use derivatives to hedge risk, for example, aim to safeguard their operations from volatile currency fluctuations. For individual traders, hedging risk with derivatives becomes a key tactic, especially in the unpredictable waters of forex markets. The primary goal isn't necessarily to profit but to create a safety net against potential losses. An Overview of CFDs (Contract for Difference) CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, are derivative financial instruments that allow traders to speculate on price movements of underlying assets without actually owning them. In the forex context, CFDs enable traders to gain exposure to currency pairs' price changes without physically exchanging the currencies involved. Instead, traders enter into a contract to exchange the difference in value of a currency pair between the time the contract is opened and when it's closed. One of the primary uses of derivatives in risk management is employing CFDs to take an opposing position, thereby potentially reducing exposure to adverse market movements. The perks of CFDs include flexibility, leverage, and the ability to go long or short. However, these benefits come with downsides, such as the risk of amplified losses due to leverage and the possibility of incurring additional costs like overnight funding fees. The Mechanics of Hedging with CFDs The mechanics of hedging forex trades with CFDs are the following: 1. Establishing a Primary Position Traders first establish a primary position in the forex market, predicting a currency pair's direction. For instance, a trader might expect the EUR/USD pair to rise and hence buy or "go long" on it. 2. Recognising Exposure Once the primary position is established, traders identify potential risks. Is there an impending economic event? Could geopolitical tensions influence the currency pair's movement? Recognising these exposures is pivotal in hedging using derivatives. 3. Taking an Opposing CFD Position To hedge, traders take an opposing position using a CFD. If our trader has gone long on the EUR/USD, hedging would involve going short on the same pair through a CFD. This doesn't mean expecting the EUR/USD to fall but rather creating a protective stance using derivatives to hedge risk. Another option is to use a negatively correlated asset from another asset class, e.g. commodities, to the currency pair you trade and open a CFD trade in that asset. 4. Monitoring and Adjusting Successful hedging isn't a set-and-forget approach. As the forex market fluctuates, the effectiveness of the hedge might change. Platforms like FXOpen's TickTrader provide traders with the necessary tools and real-time data to monitor their positions effectively. If the primary position experiences an unfavourable move, the opposing CFD position can offset some or all of those losses. Conversely, if the market moves favourably, gains from the primary position can be realised, while the loss from the hedging position is an accepted cost for protection. 5. Closing Positions When traders believe the risk has subsided or their trading goals are achieved, they can close both their primary and hedging positions. Depending on the market movement, this could result in a net profit, a minimised loss, or a break-even scenario. In the world of derivatives and risk management, CFDs offer a nuanced tool for traders navigating the often-tumultuous waters of the forex market. When executed correctly, hedging with derivatives, like CFDs, can provide a layer of protection against unwanted market swings. A Brief Look at Options Options are a type of financial derivative that gives traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame. Unlike CFDs, which track the underlying asset's movement, options are based on the probability of reaching a particular price point. While they can be used for hedging purposes, their complexity often deters many retail traders. The steep learning curve associated with options means they're not typically the first choice for risk mitigation, especially when simpler derivatives like CFDs are available. Considerations Before Hedging with Derivatives Before implementing hedging strategies using derivatives, traders take into account several crucial aspects to ensure their risk management tactics align optimally with their financial objectives. Here are some essential considerations: Understanding the Derivative's Structure Before diving into hedging, it's crucial to thoroughly understand the derivative you're using, whether it's a CFD, option, or another instrument. Each derivative has unique features, payout structures, and costs. A lack of understanding can lead to unintended exposures. If you use derivatives, it's vital to determine the position size, as leverage leads to increased risks. The theory states that a trader’s CFD position shouldn't be larger than the trade they hedge. Cost Implications While hedging can safeguard against potential losses, it's not free. Factors like spread costs, overnight financing, leverage, or premiums (in the case of options) can impact the profitability of a hedged position. Traders factor these costs into their risk management calculations. Duration of Hedge How long do you anticipate the need for the hedge? The time frame can affect the choice of derivative and its cost. Some hedges might be short-lived due to specific events, while others could be more extended due to ongoing market uncertainties. Effectiveness of the Hedge No hedge is perfect. Consider the effectiveness of the derivative in relation to the primary position. How closely does the CFD or option's performance correlate with the asset you're trying to hedge? Regular Evaluation Risk management in the derivatives market requires constant vigilance. Market conditions evolve, and what was once an effective hedge might lose its potency. Regularly evaluate the hedge's performance and adjust if necessary. Seek Expert Advice Given the complexities, it's beneficial to seek advice from experts and explore in-depth resources. They can offer help in crafting a more tailored hedging strategy. The Bottom Line In navigating the intricate waters of forex trading, understanding hedging with derivatives like CFDs can offer traders valuable protection against unforeseen market shifts. This exploration has highlighted the nuances and considerations essential for effective risk management. For those keen to delve deeper into the world of CFDs and optimise their hedging strategies, opening an FXOpen account could be the next step in fortifying their trading arsenal. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
2
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Two - PullbackOur core belief in ARZ Trading System: Trading, is to have an "expectation" from the market. If not, at any movement, the trader will be confused! If you look at the market and don't have any expectations, don't trade! In a future article, we will discuss what to do if an expectation is not met. In the case of Pullback, Price is not a ball, and EMA (or any other kind of S&R) is not a brick wall, especially in this case. If you put an EMA with any period, you'll see that the price crosses it easily most of the time! Then, it might come back as a shadow or a Fake Breakout. This means we should have a confirmation system for accepting or rejecting a Pullback. Otherwise, we'll always see a pullback shaping! Key Note 1: the higher the EMA period is, the longer will take for a pullback to shape! Key Note 2: Never trust and trade based on just one S&R level! Always have at least 2 or 3 levels to confirm your pullback. Either in a classical way by drawing trendlines and channels, or using any kind of Indicator as a means of dynamic S&R level. Key Note 3: a flat EMA is supposed to break easily! If not, it'll reject the price strongly. It means we have to wait for what will happen at a flat EMA to decide what to do next or expect the price will breach it (Please refer to article part one). Key Note 4: An ascending EMA can only act as a support, and a descending one acts as a resistance, not the other way! This is critical, believe me! Accepted ways of confirming a pullback in the ARZ System are: 1. Wait for a strong reversal pattern to shape at S&R. Never jump the gun! 2. Use a Volume Indicator like WAE (Waddah Attar Explosion) to confirm your entry at the S&R level. In this chart: - Pullback #1 (Bearish Engulfing) is not accepted, because it's just based on one S&R (13EMA) and the reversal pattern closed near the support of MC. - Pullback #2 (Bullish Engulfing) is strong but closed near 100EMA. Can't trust it. - Pullback #3 is awesome! This is a multi-candle Evening Star (Key Note 1&2), of 100EMA & Resistance of UTP & MC. - Pullback #4 is again good but has closed near the low of MC and is risky to take.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
SPY Day Trading Using @mwrightinc Indicators Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime. In this video, I explain how I use 4 free TradingView indicators to identify entries on SPY. There is a lot of information out there about creating support and resistance zones. But, drawing reliable ones only comes with experience. In my 3 years of options trading and indicator building, I've found a few patterns that seem to work pretty reliably with SPY. Order blocks, and SPY price levels at $2.50 increments, are 2 of the most predictable. To capture price movements based on these, I explain how I use the QQQ and SPY Price Levels and Magic Order Blocks indicators with SPY options and /MES futures trading. Additionally, volume weighted average price (VWAP), plays an important role every day because institutional (large) investors commonly use it for entries and exits. It is a great gauge of daily trends. ATR bands (also known as Keltner Channels) can also provide an at-a-glance look at what can be expected of price action in the near future. To monitor these, I explain how I use the ATR Bands (Keltner Channels) SRSI and Wick Signals and Multi VWAP indicators. Specifically, how they were used on the 11/13/2024 Trading day. All of the indicators are free and open source, and were built with the goal of making everyone a better trader. I hope you find the content useful. - Mo
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Education
by mwrightinc
Possible Redistribution in UBER..!What is Wykoff Distribution Analysis? Wykoff Distribution Analysis is a technical methodology developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century. It focuses on studying the distribution of trading volume and price action to identify potential support, resistance, and accumulation/distribution phases in a market. The key principles of Wykoff Distribution Analysis are: Volume Precedes Price: Trading volume changes often precede price direction changes. Analyzing volume patterns can provide clues about the underlying forces driving the market. Climactic Events: Climactic volume spikes, either up or down, often mark important turning points in a trend. These are seen as "distribution" or "accumulation" events. Phases of Activity: Markets tend to go through identifiable phases, such as: Accumulation: A period of consolidation and gradual price increase on lighter volume. Mark-Up: A strong uptrend phase on increasing volume. Distribution: A period of consolidation and gradual price decrease on lighter volume. Mark-Down: A strong downtrend phase on increasing volume. Composite Operator: Wyckoff theorized the existence of a "Composite Operator" - a single, dominant entity (or group of entities) that controls the market's overall direction. Applying Wykoff Analysis to Redistribution Wykoff Distribution Analysis can be particularly useful for identifying potential redistribution phases in a market. Redistribution occurs when the "smart money" sells to the "dumb money" at the end of an uptrend. Some key signs of redistribution include: Decreasing volume on up days, increasing volume on down days Climactic volume spikes at market highs A series of higher highs and lower lows form a distribution pattern Divergences between price and momentum indicators By identifying these distribution patterns, traders can look to enter short positions or reduce long exposure as the market transitions from an uptrend to a downtrend phase.
NYSE:UBEREducation
by Moshkelgosha
Advanced Trend Analysis in SMC Smart Money Concept Trading Forex In this article, we will discuss how to execute advanced market trend analysis with smart money concept trading. I will teach you how to identify long-term, mid-term and minor trend and how to apply trend analysis in making predictions and trading. First, let me briefly remind you the basic rules of a trend analysis in SMC trading. We say that the market is bullish if there are at least 2 bullish impulses with 2 higher highs and a retracement leg between them with a higher low. The market is bearish if there are at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 lower lows and a retracement leg between them with a lower high. If the conditions for a bullish or a bearish trend are not met, we say that the market is consolidating . Bullish violation of the last higher high in a bullish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS. Bearish violation of the last higher low in a bullish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH. Bearish violation of the last lower low in a bearish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS. Bullish violation of the last lower high in a bearish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH. BoS signifies a trend continuation. CHoCH signifies a trend violation. In order to apply these rules on a price chart, we perceive the market movements as the set of impulse and retracement legs. However, with such a method of analysis a big question arises: what is exactly is the impulse leg, how strong and long it should be. Which price fluctuations can be a part of the impulse and which should be excluded. Look at the example above. A price action on AUDCAD can be perceived as one single bullish impulse or a combination of 3 bullish impulses and retracements and a combination of multiple impulses and retracements. Which way of analysis is correct? The fact is that the price action analysis on each chart is correct . The only difference between them is the perspective . From a long-term perspective , the entire price movement on the chart is a one single impulse. From a mid-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend in 3 bullish impulses. From a short-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend and started to consolidate and trade in sideways for some time, resuming the growth then. With advanced SMC trend analysis, you should learn to perceive a price chart not only as a combination of impulse and retracement legs, but also as a combination of long-term, mid-term and short-term trends and movements. Depending on your trading style, such a reasoning can be applied on any time frame. Look at AUDJPY pair on an hourly time frame. From a long-term perspective, the pair is trading in a bearish trend. Studying in details the last bullish impulse, we can perceive it as a minor bullish trend with its confirmed violation after a Change of Character. Let's discuss another example. EURNZD is trading in a clear long-term bullish trend on a daily. Zooming in the chart, we can also analyze the last bullish impulse in a long-term bullish trend as a mid-term bullish trend. At the same time, if we analyze the recent minor movements, we can spot a confirmed minor bearish trade on the pair. Why do we need such an in-depth market trend analysis? Always remember that a global trend is always born from a minor trend. Minor trend analysis will help you to identify local reversal, trend following signals much earlier. The fact that EURNZD started to trade in a minor bearish trend, being globally bullish, can be an important warning sign for us. You can see that after some time the pair started to fall rapidly. A minor bearish trend continued, a mid-term bullish trend was violated and a correction started in a global bullish trend. Your ability to correctly analyze different market perspectives is essential for making accurate predictions. The trend analysis rules and events that we discussed are more than enough for successful trading any time frame and any market. Study trend analysis, learn to identify global, mid-term and minor trend and good luck in your trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
6
Retail Traders Are Waking Up | Here’s How to Spot the SignsWhy Are Our Parents Texting Us About Bitcoin? It’s Getting Weird Thanks to crypto,now I know my entire extended family and even my ancestors! Some of them hadn’t spoken to me in a thousand years, but now they’re calling me “Bruh” (And no, I’m not a vampire, by the way!) Here’s why I think a retail fueled wave might be about to hit the crypto market 1/ A spike in Google searches for "crypto" 2/ Coinbase App Store rankings The Coinbase app just shot up from #155 to #18 in two days 3/ Dogecoin and Squirrel on the rise Retail traders have a soft spot for Doge , Cardano and memecoins. Guess which top 10 tokens surged the most in the last week? bunch of retail traders who’ve held CRYPTOCAP:DOGE and CRYPTOCAP:ADA since the last bull run are probably getting alerts that their investments are bouncing back.(That’s one way to grab their attention) 4/ Bitcoin featured on Bloomberg's front page Mainstream news = mainstream visibility = more pump = more lambo! 5/ Texts from our parents ( Are you winning son? ) The unique skill of being both endearing and critical at once a true dad specialty 6/ Ronald McDonald has joined the chat… McDonald's just teased a new collaboration with Doodles (yes, the NFT project). It kicked off last week…Now, any one of these signs might not mean much alone But taken together, they start to tell a different story. Falling air pressure, strengthening winds, darkening skies… it looks like a retail storm might be on the horizon..Brace yourselves! The good news? This time might not be different. Earlier in the year, there was concern about a potential “left translated cycle.” (Translation: crypto prices rising faster than expected). At first, that sounds great! (Who wouldn’t want a quicker path to wealth?) But the catch is, the shorter the window for prices to peak, the harder it is to time safely (you’d have days instead of weeks or months to sell near the top) When Bitcoin reached all time highs ahead of the halving in March (a first), many traders started feeling “left-translated” jitters. If we stay on this track and hit the same average returns as the past three halving years, we could be looking at a ~$ 126k Bitcoin by year’s end! Here’s hoping this time really isn’t different! BTC just hit a new ATH again!! STOP
Education
by moonypto
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part OneIn ARZ Trading System, we use multiple EMAs to analyze the market, as follows: 1. 200EMA, 100EMA, & 50EMA: Analyze the big picture (Major Structure). What is happening in higher timeframes? Long Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? 2. 20EMA, & 13EMA: Analyze the trading timeframe (minor structure). When to enter a trade and how to manage it? Short Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? Points to consider: 1. If an EMA is flat, it's not a valid S&R and we expect the price to break it easily. If not, it'll act as a strong S&R and we expect a strong movement after Pullback on it. 2. Based on the period of Flat EMA, the fluctuation around it could be big and bigger. It means, a flat 20EMA has a smaller range of fluctuation and shorter duration of ranging market around it, in compare to 200EMA which generally is wider and longer. 3. If EMAs are close to each other, cannot act as S&R. Only when there is some distance between them we can see them as S&R that can encapsulate price between them for a period of time. Here we see a strong bullish entry after hitting Flat 200EMA and 50% LTP. If cross and closed above all EMAs, a Pump is in hand! To be continued...
Education
by forexise
10
Trade explanation and more downside expectedHi traders, welcome to this trade breakdown. Its situation has played out and I traded with decent gains. I'm still in the position and I expect more downside coming however my TP is in the 50% of the CLS range. The goal of this post is to show you briefly my unique method of reading the market by understanding CLS. Let's put it all together 🧩 Follow me I will be posting more educational posts like this one and don't hesitate to ask with any questions in the comment. 📍HTF Level - Weekly breaker / FVG 📍Range created, 2nd candle manipulated to the HTF level and closed inside the range. 📍The third weekly candle retested the 50% of the wick there I entered at 199.148 - the candle closed inside the range which is another confirmation. 📍4th week opened and retested the range with manipulation above the Asia session. At this moment, I took partial profit and SL is on the break even. 📍 HTF view What is CLS? You may never hear about them. Just find out about them on Google or their website. This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are simply market maker. I hope this educational post helps you at least briefly understand my method. Dave FX Hunter
Education
by David_Perk
13
Triple Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 5/8 Bullish Chart PatternsTriple Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 5/8 Bullish Chart Patterns A bullish triple bottom is a reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the start of an upward trend. Here's a breakdown: Three Lows: The pattern is characterized by three distinct lows that are roughly equal in price. These lows form after a significant downtrend, indicating strong support at that level. Rallies Between Lows: Each low is separated by two intermediate rallies that create peaks. These peaks form the resistance level known as the neckline. Neckline: The horizontal line connecting the highs of the intermediate rallies is called the neckline. This is a crucial resistance level that the price must break through to confirm the pattern. Breakout: A breakout above the neckline, typically accompanied by increased trading volume, confirms the triple bottom pattern. This breakout signifies a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Price Target: The expected price target is often calculated by measuring the distance from the pattern's lowest low to the neckline and projecting that distance upwards from the breakout point. Traders view the triple bottom as a strong indication that the selling pressure has been exhausted and that buyers are starting to gain control, suggesting a potential upward price movement.
AMEX:IWMEducation
by RonnieV29
4
Bullish Double Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 4/8 Bullish PatternsGive me the description for a bullish double-bottom A bullish double bottom is a powerful reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of an upward trend. Here’s how it forms: Two Troughs: The pattern starts with a significant price decline, forming a low (the first bottom). The price then rebounds to create a peak (the middle of the "W" shape) but soon declines again to form a second bottom roughly at the same price level as the first bottom. This double bottom resembles the letter "W." Neckline: The horizontal line that connects the peak of the middle rebound is called the neckline. This is a key resistance level that the price needs to break through to confirm the pattern. Breakout: A breakout above the neckline, typically accompanied by increased volume, confirms the double bottom pattern and signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. Price Target: The estimated price target for the upward move is usually determined by measuring the distance from the bottoms to the neckline and projecting this distance upwards from the point of breakout. Traders view the double bottom as a strong indication that the previous downtrend has exhausted and the bulls are gaining control, leading to a potential significant upward movement.
NYSE:SMREducation
by RonnieV29
2
Ascending Triangle Pattern Tutorial: 3/8 Bullish PatternsAscending Triangle Pattern Tutorial: 3/8 Bullish Patterns An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern that signals the potential for an upward breakout. Here's how it forms: Flat Upper Trendline: The upper trendline is flat, indicating a resistance level where the price consistently faces selling pressure and fails to move higher. Rising Lower Trendline: The lower trendline is ascending, showing higher lows as buyers step in at increasingly higher prices. Price Convergence: The price action gets squeezed between the two trendlines, leading to a tightening range. Breakout: Eventually, the price breaks above the resistance level, indicating a continuation of the upward trend. This breakout is typically accompanied by a surge in volume. Ascending triangles are popular among traders because they offer clear entry and exit points. The height of the triangle, measured from the base to the horizontal resistance, can be used to estimate the potential price target following the breakout. LIKE l FOLLOW l SHARE
NASDAQ:METAEducation
by RonnieV29
6
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern what is it/ how to draw it? 2/8Symmetrical Triangle Pattern what is it/ how to draw it? 2/8 Bullish Charting Patterns A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern that forms when the price of an asset converges with two trendlines that are moving towards each other, creating a triangular shape. Here’s how it works: Converging Trendlines: The upper trendline is formed by connecting the descending highs, and the lower trendline is formed by connecting the ascending lows. These trendlines converge at a point called the apex. Volume Decrease: As the pattern develops, trading volume typically decreases, indicating a period of consolidation and indecision in the market. Breakout: Eventually, the price breaks out from the triangle, which can occur in either direction – upwards or downwards. The direction of the breakout often dictates the future trend of the asset. Symmetrical triangles are considered continuation patterns, meaning they usually signal that the prevailing trend (upward or downward) before the pattern will continue after the breakout. Traders often use the height of the triangle (the distance between the initial high and low points) to estimate the potential price target following the breakout. Like l Follow l Share Stay tuned for the other 6 BULLISH CHARTING PATTERNS
NASDAQ:ULTAEducation
by RonnieV29
6
What is a BULL Flag Charting Pattern and How to draw it? 1/8This is video 1/8 of this series of BULLISH Chart Patterns. A bull flag is a continuation pattern that appears in a strong uptrend, signaling that the prevailing upward trend may continue. Here's how it looks: Flag Pole: A sharp, steep rise in price forms the flag pole. Flag: A period of consolidation with lower highs and lower lows, forming a flag that slopes against the prevailing uptrend. Breakout: A strong move upwards out of the flag, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. The bull flag pattern is popular among traders because it provides clear entry and exit points and is relatively easy to identify. It's a great indicator for momentum traders looking to capitalize on the continuation of a bullish trend. Like l Follow l Share Stay tuned for the other 7 BULLISH CHARTING PATTERNS
NASDAQ:GOOGEducation
by RonnieV29
14